Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☒ 3
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
75 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Thursday, November
Friday, November 1, 2019 21, 2019
Competence to develop:

The student uses the results that are achieved with the use of Markov chains and their
probabilities in the decision making that guarantees the development and continuity of a
decision process.

Topics to develop:

Unit 3. Markov decision processes

6. Overview of the Markovian process

7. Dynamic programming model of finite stage
8. Dynamic programming model of infinite stage

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as follows:

Step 1. In Exercise 1, the student must solve according to the use of Markov Chains,
stable states the questions posed in such a way that the probabilities that are generated
from the succession of events of each Exercise are determined.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the Exercises
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed Exercises is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.

Step 2. In Exercises 2 to 5, the student must solve according to the use of Markov Chains,
initial states of multiplication the questions posed in such a way that the probabilities that
are generated from the succession of events of each Exercise are determined.

Step 3. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of
the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities,
remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income and results
table for the Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for
the use of educational resources.

Step 4. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.

Activities to develop

Next, you will find 6 exercises that make up Phase 6, these should be developed
individually. As a collaborative activity in addition to the discussion, correction,
consolidation of the final work, is the use of the online tool that is available in the practical
learning environment to check results of manual and online methods of the Exercises
raised.

To develop the exercise 1 to 5, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 648-665), New
Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.

Exercise 1. Markov chains (steady state):

XYZ insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you
have not had accidents the last two years will be charged for the new policy $ 530,000
(state 0); if you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $
719,000 (State 1); If you had accidents the first of the last two years you will be charged
$ 517.000 (state 2) and if you had an accident the second of the last two years will be
charged $ 778.000 (State 3). The historical behavior of each state is given by the following
cases of accident, taken in four different events.

According to Table 1 by applying the Markovian processes, finding the transition matrix
and solving the respective equations of p * q, where p is the transition matrix and q the
vector [W X Y Z]. Answer:
 a. What is the transition matrix resulting from proportionality according to the accident
history?

b. What is the average premium paid by a customer in Payoff, according to historical

accident rate?

Exercise 2. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 5 main mobile operators such as Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB and
Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each client
has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF

TIGO 0,25 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,15
COMCEL 0,2 0,35 0,15 0,1 0,2
MOVISTAR 0,35 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,05
ETB 0,15 0,25 0,05 0,25 0,3
UFF 0,15 0,25 0,3 0,15 0,15

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.2 for Comcel
0.3, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.1 for Uff (initial state).

According to Table 2 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the
initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

a. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the 3 next
periods.

Exercise 3. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel, Movistar,
ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each
client has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB AVANTEL UFF

TIGO 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,1
COMCEL 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,1
MOVISTAR 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 0
ETB 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,2
AVANTEL 0,1 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,1 0,2
UFF 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0 0,2

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.1 for Comcel
0.2, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1, Avantel 0.1 and 0.2 for Uff (initial state).

According to Table 3 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the
initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

a. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the nexts 4
periods.
Exercise 4. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi Cola,
Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a probability that they
will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi Cola, 10% that Fanta buys
and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi Cola there
is a probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that Fanta
consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood of it
continuing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and
20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently consume Coca Cola the probability that it will
continue to consume is 50%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and
10% that is passed to Fanta.

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following
percentages in market share respectively (30%, 20%, 10% and 40%) during week 3.

According to the data by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the
initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

a. Find the transition matrix.

b. Find the probability that each user stays with the mark or change to another for
periodS 4, 5, 6 and period 7.

Exercise 5. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,
Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you
continue to use the same brand or change it.

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,18 0,18 0,15 0,21 0,18 0,1
BRAND 2 0,14 0,18 0,2 0,19 0,15 0,14
BRAND 3 0,13 0,16 0,15 0,21 0,2 0,15
BRAND 4 0,22 0,16 0,18 0,2 0,18 0,06
BRAND 5 0,15 0,17 0,15 0,17 0,15 0,21
BRAND 6 0,17 0,15 0,17 0,19 0,19 0,13

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (20%,
15%, 17%, 15%, 13% y 20%) during week 4.

According to the data by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the
initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

a. Find the transition matrix.

b. Find the probability that each user stays with the mark or change to another for
periodS 4, 5, 6 and period 7.

Exercise 6. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative activity

Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of the
Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities, remember
to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income and results table for
the Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for the use of
educational resources.

The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment a single file
in PDF format consolidating the contributions of all the participants in the space named
Phase 6. Unit 3.

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum of the
activity, the development and solution of each of the proposed
exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:

The working group should demonstrate the use of the resource

provided in the practical learning environment and upload the
screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document must be

Products to
submitted in pdf format, with the following specifications:
deliver by
student
Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working
Group_212066_TC3, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the
following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the

consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the recourse
online that performed in the practical learning environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports
the solution of Exercises.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
Planning of activities require the joint participation of the members of the group,
for the development of the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
collaborative work Exercises SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.
 In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught
and learned from Exercises that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the Exercises are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.

Recognition of actors as subjects:

The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking links.) of
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
development of each academic activity . They will also design
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.
Roles to perform by
the student in the
Staging of the principles of collaborative work:
collaborative group
It is important that students internalize each of the principles
of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
 strategies, proposing technological resources that support
the process being carried out, among others that allow the
team to advance and that each one can strengthen its
formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
contribute in the achievement of good results of the
equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.
Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the
final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
included in the product to be delivered.

Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of

submission of work required by the teacher.
Roles and
Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria
responsibility for the
present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge
delivery of products by
of the alerts so that you inform the other members of the
students
team in case any adjustments need to be made on the
subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and
send the document in the stipulated times, using the
resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.
Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish (Translation of
Use of references
version 6 in English).
 The APA Standards is the style of organization and
presentation of information most used in the area of social
sciences. These are published under a Manual that allows you
to have access to the ways in which a scientific article should
be presented. Here you can find the most relevant aspects of
the sixth edition of the APA Standards Manual, such as
references, citations, preparation and presentation of tables
and figures, headings and seriation, among others.

You can check how to implement them by going to

http://normasapa.com/

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the

mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
Plagiarism policy products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
without leading to disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
without leading to disciplinary measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric

Rubric evaluation format

Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3
Type of
Individual activity X Collaborative activity X
activity
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit 3 X Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student Participation in the
The student
participated in the effective
participated actively
Individual forum, but his elaboration of the
and effectively in
student contributions are work is limited, so
the elaboration of
participation in fairly effective in the the achievement of 8
the requested
the forum creation of the final the objectives is
product.
product. inadequate.
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
Although the
proposed theme is
Use of criterion The objectives of
treated, the body of
the work were The document
Markov chains the document does
satisfactorily met, leaves the
(steady state) not adequately solve
Markovian Criterion Markovian Criterion
in real the situation, the
of Exercise 1 are of Exercise 1
situations that correctly solved and conclusions are not unresolved, so the 15
require relevant according
the analysis of their optimality decisions
decision- to the results
results leads to an are left
obtained by
making optimal decision- unanswered.
Markovian Criterion
processes making.
of Exercise 1.

Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points

Although the
The objectives of
proposed theme is
Use of criterion the work were
treated, the body of The document
Markov chains satisfactorily met,
the document does leaves the
(Initial state Markovian Criterion
not adequately solve Markovian Criterion
multiplication) of Exercises 2 to 5
the situation, the of Exercise 2 to 5
in real are correctly solved
conclusions are not unresolved, so the 25
situations that and the analysis of
relevant according optimality decisions
require their results leads to
to the results are left
decision- an optimal decision-
obtained by unanswered.
making making.
Markovian Criterion
processes
of Exercise 2 to 5.
Until 25 points Until 13 points Until 0 points
 Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
document presents
The document a basic structure, it
presents an lacks some elements The basic norms
excellent structure, of the requested for the construction
all the exercises are body or does not of reports are
Structure of solved according to comply with the nonexistent like the
12
the Report the proposed norms for written Criterion applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
Criterion of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
Criterion of the
course.

Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points

Although the use of The practical
the practical environment of the
The use of the
environment in the course has been
practical
final report is no longer
environment of the
evident, the explored, for that
Use of the course is excellent,
solutions found by reason the
practical the results and the
the application lack evidence in the 15
learning analysis of these
analysis and use of the
environment are shown correctly
conclusions application to
in the final work
pertinent to solve the Exercises
presented.
efficient decision raised has been
making. limited.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
Final score 75