that the slope coefficient of time variable has a positive sign and is significant at 1 per cent Mohinder Kumar level. The per cent per year growth in farm land prices computed from the estimated IN a recently published article (EPW, agricultural production and land productivity slope coefficient of time is also given in the September28,1996) Kailas Sarap has drawn in Haryana resulting from the introduction table and indicates that farm land prices in some interesting conclusions about the of green revolution technology during this Haryana were rising at the rate of 2.26 per behaviour of farm land prices in Haryana period. As is well known, the new HYV cent per year over the 32-year period. It may d u r i n g 1960-91 w h i c h a p p r o x i m a t e l y technology was introduced in the Punjab- also be observed that the R-SQR value of corresponds with the green revolution period. Haryana region in 1965-66, but districts 0.64, though fairly high, indicates that there He has concluded that farm land prices in c o m p r i s i n g the new state of Haryana, were considerable fluctuations in farm land Haryana (1) did not rise during the decade especially the southern Mewat region, prices around a steadily rising upward trend. of 1960s; (2) rose only moderately during somewhat remained laggards in adopting the In order to check the results suggested by the 1970s; and (3) started rising again after new agricultural technology compared to the the semi-log trend model, we have also used the mid-1980s. These conclusions he seems Punjab districts. However, such a situation a non-parametric test for trend. The results to have drawn from his graphic presentation did not last long and by the early 1970s the of rank test for trend are also given in Table of f a r m land prices. His c o n c l u s i o n s , integrated package of new high yielding seed 1 and they leave little doubt about our earlier therefore, are merely impressionistic and varieties, chemical fertilisers and mechanical conclusion of a statistically significant may not be very reliable. He seems to have technology was being extensively used by upward trend in farm land prices in Haryana done no systematic statistical analysis of Haryana farmers also. This led to tremendous over the study period. The advantage of this the trend, as the results of any such analysis growth in agricultural production and land non-parametric test is that it is not only are not reported by him in the paper. Only productivity also rose considerably. It is also distribution free but also no assumptions are a systematic statistical analysis of time well known that increases in land productivity made about the specific form of the upward series data can reveal the nature of trends get capitalised soon into higher farm land trend. in f a r m land prices in Haryana during values. But, somehow, Sarap does not find We further tested the breaks in trends the three sub-periods between 1960 and any increase in farm land pricesduring 1960s reported by Sarap with the help of intercept 1991. and only a very moderate rise is reported for and slope dummies. For this purpose, the Furthermore, Sarap's conclusions about the 1970s. semi-log trend model mentioned earlier was the behaviour of farm land prices are difficult Whereas economic theory suggests that extended to the form: log farm land price to accept in view of the rapid growth of the rising land productivity in Haryana = ao + b 0 Time + (aj - ao) D + (b ( - b 0 ) D x agriculture must have got capitalised into Time. Here, D denotes dummy variable that higher farm land values, Sarap has not takes value zero for each year in the base TABLE I : GROWTH IN FARM L A N D PRICES IN reported original time series data on farm period, and value one for each of the HARYANA, 1 9 6 0 - 9 1 (Estimated Growth Model: log Y = a + b Time land prices in his paper. But we were able subsequent years. Differential intercept Dependent Variable : log farm land price) to regenerate his data after tracing it out from coefficient ( a | - do) and differential slope (Rs per acre) the graph of land prices given by him and coefficient (bj - b 0 ) with their attendant t- have subjected that data to a systematic values indicate the nature, size and statistical statistical analysis in order to find out the significance of a shift in the trend in farm nature of the trend in farm land prices and land p r i c e s in the s u b - p e r i o d s under its s h i f t d u r i n g the t h r e e s u b - p e r i o d s consideration. The results of this exercise are mentioned by him. For this purpose initially reported in Table 2. It may be seen that in we analysed the trend and estimated the none of the three equations reported in Table growth in farm land prices for the entire 2 are the differential slope and differential 1960-91 period with the help of standard intercept coefficients significant, clearly semi-log trend model (log farm land price indicating that over the period of 1960 to = a+bxTime). The results of this statistical 1991 farm land prices in Haryana kept exercise are reported in Table 1 which clearly growing at a steady rate and showed no Notes:(I) Figures in parentheses are t - values (2) * Means significant at 1 percent level. show that there was a steady growth in farm difference in the trend between the decades Two tailed test. land prices in Haryana over the 1960-91 of 1960s, 1970s and post-mid 1980s as asserted by Sarap. TABLE 2 : SEARCH FOR SHIFT IN THE TREND IN FARM L A N D PRICES Our statistical analy si s, therefore, suggests (Estimated Growth Model: log Y s a,, + b„ Time + (a,-a1)) D + (bj - b0) D x Time that farm land prices in Haryana during the Dependent Variable: log farm land price) green revolution period rose steadily at the (Rs per acre) rate of 2.26 per cent per year without any shift or break in the trend. This conclusion also seems theoretically more plausible since it is in conformity with the proposition that the enhanced land productivity resulting from new technology adoption in Haryana was slowly but surely being capitalised into higher farm land prices. It is, therefore, clear that Sarap's impressionistic conclusions about trend in farm land prices in Haryana are not Note: Figures in parentheses are t-values. valid.
552 Economic and Political Weekly March 15, 1997
Regd No MH-Mbi/Soutlt-325 March 15-21.1997 Licence No 54. Licensed to Post without Prepayment in liniia
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