Population Estimation

General Overview Water-Civilisation and Civil Engineering Water Supply Structures and Population Growth
Population Estimation Methods
M. Cüneyd Demirel
İstanbul Technical University

demirelmc@itu.edu.tr
September 16, 2019
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Today our topics will be
General Overview
Water-Civilisation and Civil Engineering
Water Supply Structures and Population Growth
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Expected Outputs
• Familiarity with ArcGIS

• What is DEM? How to delineate a watershed?
• Population estimation
• Topographic profile using DEM for waterline assessments
• Design of pumping and gravity lines
• Water network design using dead point and Hardy Cross
methods
• Netcad-Bentley-Autocad Civil3D programs
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Preparation is necessary
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New lovely parameter shaping my life
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Emphasizing some points
• Attendence list is now important. We will count the people.

• Enthuaism is the key
• Preparation and following Ninova (videos and notes)
• Homework=learned
• First 7 week me, other 7 week second lecturer will be with you.
• Exams will be common in all classes.
• I wish all could pass the class under my wings but
unfortunately we have to respect the thresholds.
• Communication via email/Ninova. No need to visit teacher’s
office if not urgent.
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Evaluation
• Information sheet
• HW, reports, correctness of the methods,presentation of the
results. Innovation in the application of the methods and
asking questions.
• Continuity in active participation
• Enthuaism is more important than the IQ.
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Book References
• Muslu, Y. Su Temini ve Çevre Sağlığı, Su Vakfı Yayınları,

İstanbul,4. Baskı, 2008
• Önerilen: İlter Türkdoğan, Kaan Yetilmezsoy ”SU GETİRME
VE KANALİZASYON UYGULAMALARI”,Su Vakfı Yanınları,
2015
• Önerilen: Hayrullah Ağaçcıoğlu, YTÜ Kentsel Altyapı
Sistemlerinin Hidroliği Ders Notları
• İller Bankası A.Ş. 2013 yılı Içmesuyu Tesisleri Etüt, Fizibilite
ve Projelerinin Hazirlanmasina ait Teknik Şartnamesi
ilbank.gov.tr’den INDIR, Dropbox’tan INDIR.
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Importance of the Lecture
• We can best understand the value of water during long

water-cuts.
• Water is then civilisation. Hygen and health comes with water.
• Consider the discovery of perfume in Europe.
• Civil Engineers design civilisations with not only buildings but
also with roads, bridges and fresh water supply.
• A civilisation can’t survive long without water but can live in
caves like in Nevşehir.
• Aqueducts and fountains during Romans and Ottoman
• Northern Cyprus Water Supply Project, Blue TUnnel-Göksu,
Melen Project, 5.44 dk
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Cartoon showing the status of NL in medieval time
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Is that different today?
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Public toilets in the center of Enschede city

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Aqueducts in Ottoman
Water Resources: Istranca Mountains, Belgrad Forest and springs

in Halkalı. (Kaynak: abihayatsergisi.com)
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Su Temini [Kaptaj] - İletimi [İsale] ve Dağıtımı [Şebeke]
Türkçe’ye akedük ve kondüvi tünel diye geçmiş. Akedük viyadük

sözünü andırıyor. Neydi viyadük? Altından su geçerse köprü
geçmezse viyadük.
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Aqueducts in Ireland
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Aqueducts
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Aqueducts
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Looking at Kağıthane
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İTÜ Gölet Water Supply and Rainwater Harvesting

Projects
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Kanalizasyon ve Yağmur suyu Drenajı
• Seller nedeniyle yağmur suyu drenajı daha öncelikli sayılmıştır

• 1980’lere kadar yağmur suyu kanalları iki işlevi de yapmıştır.
• Birleşik sistem denen bu uygulama devam etmez, kanalizasyon
yağmur suyu borularının altından geçer.
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Kanalizasyon ve Yağmur suyu Drenajı
• Yakın geçmişe kadar kirli su kaynaklı salgın hastalıklar (tifo,

veba ve kolera) çok can almıştır.
• Şehirlerden geçen nehirler kanalizasyona dönmüştür (Kadıköy
ve Haliç)
• San Francisco demiryollarında çalışan Çinli işçiler ve çay
• 1890-1900 lerde kanalizasyon ağı inşaa edilmiştir fakat pisliği
en yakına iletmekten ibaretti. Nehir, göller ve kıyılar
kirlenmiştir. Hala bazı vakalar görülür.
• Artıma tesisleri 20.yy da başlamıştır
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Water Resources
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Water Resources Planning
• Exploring new resources

• Protect water resources against pollution
• New water treatment techniques
• Improve desalination techniques, membrans and inverse osmos
• Prevent water leakage and over use.
• Water re-use
• Adaptation to climate change
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Factors to choose water resources
• Secured amount that can be supplied consistenly

• Water quality and its change in time
• Cost of supply: deep aquifer.
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Factors affecting investment cost
• Location of the source (x,y,z) and amount

• Status of water and the need for treatment (Portland case,
Ecoli bacteria ve quee in the supermarket for bottled water)
• Size of the facility
• Contruction material, work power in the region
• Increasing population decreasing sources: value of water
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Watershed
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Water Resources on Earth
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Springs and Groundwater
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Springs and Groundwater
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Components of Water Supply Structures
• Fresh Water Resources (Dam, Well, River, Desalination

center)
• Intake (gets water from the source)
• Transmission line - pipeline
• Treatment plant
• Pumping stations
• Regulatory structures (pressure regulations, head loss etc)
• Water distribution network
• Water towers, servise reservoir
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Components of Waster Water Collection System
• House wasterwater system

• House connections
• Collecting sewers
• Intercepting Sewers
• Wastewater Treatment Plant
• Sea discharge systems
• Iller bank assumes that the water comes and goes 1/1.
However, this ration can be 10/7: 10 comes 7 goes.
• Q: What does Iller bank do?
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Factors affecting water demand estimations
• Design period
• Population
• Water usage per capita
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Design Periods
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Design Periods
• Effective life time of the concrete and steel hardware used in
the structure.
• If construction is easy the project design period is short.
Dams are designed for 50 years, wells are for shorter periods
like 5 years. Then new wells are planned and expanded.
• Pipelines are designed for long term as the life of pipeline is
very long based on new technology (PVC, steel, Wavin).
• If population growth is high then design period is short due to
uncertainty and the cost of a short project is low.
• If interest rate is high then short design period.
• Big projects can be utilized part by part.
• Based on Iller bank, the minimum design period for water
supply projects is 30 year.
• An additional 5 year for the construction period. 30+5
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Population Statistics and Growth Estimation
• Design discharge is calculated as population x water demand

per capita per day
• In Turkey TUIK is responsible for population statistics
• First counting was conducted in 1927
• Population increases by births and decreases by deaths.
• It is affected by immigration and emigration
• Social and economical conditions affect population e.g.
delayed marriages, industrial cities attract more people.
• J shape for no-limit for growing, S shape for a limited-growth
based on the carrying capacity of the location.
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Population Growth
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Population Growth
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Water Supply
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Melen Project
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Melen Water Intake Structure
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Melen Pumping station
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Melen Pumping station
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Water transmission lines - different designs
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Not alwys straight lines
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Not alwys straight lines
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Design project: lpcd (liter per capita per day)
capita: latince kişi demek
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Population Density
Kesafet: yoğunluk 48 / 60
Water usage per capita
• Liter of water per capita per day

• Climate, number of parks, gardens, fields.
• Water quality (good quality more usage)
• Industry - cooling water
• Water pressure in the line (increases then more usage)
• Living standards
• Awareness in the public
• Water price
• Availability of sewer facilities
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Water footprint, Virtual water trade
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Water footprint, Virtual water trade
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Domestic water use in different countries
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Water use in different sectors
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Population pyramid
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Population curve
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Arithmetic and Geometric Growth Methods

N2 −N1
Ng = Ns + ka *(tg − ts ) ka = t2 −t1
ln N2 −ln N1
ln Ng = ln NS + kg ∗ (tg − ts ) kg = t2 −t1
Ng : Future population
Ns : Last known population N
tg : The year that will be estimated
ts : The last population count
ka : Growth rate (person/year)
kg : Growth constant (-)
t
• “ka ve kg ” are calculated from two consequent population

count
• If we have multiple “ka ve kg ” values then an average of those
values are used. 56 / 60
Iller Bank Growth Method
hq i
p (tg −ts ) N2
Ng = Ns ∗ 1 + 100 p= a
N1 − 1 ∗ 100 a = t2 − t1
Ng : Future population, Ns : Last known population Ns : Last

known population, tg : The year that will be estimated
p : Growth factor , a : delta years
• “p” is estimated from two consecutive population stats.
• More than one “p” then average them
• 1≤p≤3→ − p = p Upper and lower limits
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Logistic Curve Method

2∗y0 ∗y1 ∗y2 −y12 (y0 +y2 )
L= y0 ∗y2 −y12
L: Saturation level
y0 : Population at year t0 y1 : Population at year t1 y2 : Population
at year t2
L−y0
m= y0
h i
1
y0 (L−y1 )
b= ∆t ∗ ln y1 (L−y0 )
∆t = tson − tilk t2 − t1 = t1 − t0 precondition
L
ym = 1+m∗e b∗∆t
• ym : Future population
• b ve m: constants
• ∆t : delta years 58 / 60
Declining Growth Method
ym = yi + (L − yi ) × 1 − ekd (tm −ti )

L−y
ln L−y2
1
kd = t2 −t1
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Result: different method leads to different result
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Population Estimation

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General Overview Water-Civilisation and Civil Engineering Water Supply Structures and Population Growth

Population Estimation Methods

İstanbul Technical University

September 16, 2019

Today our topics will be

Water-Civilisation and Civil Engineering

Water Supply Structures and Population Growth

• Familiarity with ArcGIS

New lovely parameter shaping my life

Emphasizing some points

• Attendence list is now important. We will count the people.

• Muslu, Y. Su Temini ve Çevre Sağlığı, Su Vakfı Yayınları,

Importance of the Lecture

• We can best understand the value of water during long

Cartoon showing the status of NL in medieval time

Is that different today?

Is that different today?

Is that different today?

Public toilets in the center of Enschede city

Water Resources: Istranca Mountains, Belgrad Forest and springs

Su Temini [Kaptaj] - İletimi [İsale] ve Dağıtımı [Şebeke]

Türkçe’ye akedük ve kondüvi tünel diye geçmiş. Akedük viyadük

İTÜ Gölet Water Supply and Rainwater Harvesting

Kanalizasyon ve Yağmur suyu Drenajı

• Seller nedeniyle yağmur suyu drenajı daha öncelikli sayılmıştır

Kanalizasyon ve Yağmur suyu Drenajı

• Yakın geçmişe kadar kirli su kaynaklı salgın hastalıklar (tifo,

Water Resources Planning

• Exploring new resources

Factors to choose water resources

• Secured amount that can be supplied consistenly

Factors affecting investment cost

• Location of the source (x,y,z) and amount

Water Resources on Earth

Springs and Groundwater

Springs and Groundwater

Components of Water Supply Structures

• Fresh Water Resources (Dam, Well, River, Desalination

Components of Waster Water Collection System

• House wasterwater system

Factors affecting water demand estimations

Population Statistics and Growth Estimation

• Design discharge is calculated as population x water demand

Melen Water Intake Structure

Melen Pumping station

Melen Pumping station

Water transmission lines - different designs

Not alwys straight lines

Not alwys straight lines

Design project: lpcd (liter per capita per day)

capita: latince kişi demek

Water usage per capita

• Liter of water per capita per day

Water footprint, Virtual water trade

Water footprint, Virtual water trade

Domestic water use in different countries

Water use in different sectors

Arithmetic and Geometric Growth Methods

• “ka ve kg ” are calculated from two consequent population

Iller Bank Growth Method

Ng : Future population, Ns : Last known population Ns : Last

Logistic Curve Method

∆t = tson − tilk t2 − t1 = t1 − t0 precondition