Tutorial 12 Content

DATA SECTION

Discount rate (%per yr) 10.0%

Investment A Investment B
Condition of Garment Industry Probability
Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2
Poor 20% 100 300 400 300
Moderate 60% 400 1,000 500 900
Good 20% 800 1,200 600 1,500

REPORT SECTION

Cash flows
Year 1 Year 2
Probability mioVND Probability mioVND
20% 300
60% 1,000
20% 1,200

20% 100 20% 300

Investment A 60% 400 60% 1,000
20% 800 20% 1,200

20% 300
60% 1,000
20% 1,200
Total

Year 1 Year 2
Probability mioVND Probability mioVND
20% 300
60% 900
20% 1,500

20% 400 20% 300

Investment B 60% 500 60% 900
20% 600 20% 1,500

20% 300
60% 900
20% 1,500
Total

Decision rule: Choose the investment with higher total Expected Present Value
Decision: Invest in Investment B
 Decision Tree: Lab activity:
+ Consider 2 investment opportunities + Enter formulas
in the Vietnam Garment Industry: 23-49. (Rememb
Investment A and Investment B and relative refe
cells copying mo
+ The condition of the Vietnam Garment + If the decision
Industry is classified into 3 levels: Poor, investment with
Moderate and Good. Each year, there is Present Value, e
20% probability that the industry will function) in yello
perform at "Poor" level, 60% probability whether Investm
that the industry will be at "Moderate" should be chose
level and the rest 20% probability that
the industry will do at "Good" level.

+ If the condition of VN Garment

Industry is "poor", the projected cash
flows for Investment A are 100
Discounted Expected (mioVND) in year 1 and 300 in year 2;
Probability Present Present for Investment B are 400 in year 1 and
Value Value 300 in year 2.

4.0% 338.84 13.55 + If the condition of VN Garment

12.0% 917.36 110.08 Industry is "moderate", the projected
4.0% 1,082.64 43.31 cash flows for Investment A are 400
(mioVND) in year 1 and 1000 in year 2,
12.0% 611.57 73.39 for Investment B are 500 in year 1 and
36.0% 1,190.08 428.43 900 in year 2.
12.0% 1,355.37 162.64
+ If the condition of VN Garment
4.0% 975.21 39.01 Industry is "good", the projected cash
12.0% 1,553.72 186.45 flows for Investment A are 800
4.0% 1,719.01 68.76 (mioVND) in year 1 and 1200 in year 2;
100.0% 1,125.62 for Investment B are 600 in year 1 and
1500 in year 2.

4.0% 611.57 24.46

12.0% 1,107.44 132.89
4.0% 1,603.31 64.13

12.0% 702.48 84.30

36.0% 1,198.35 431.40
12.0% 1,694.21 203.31

4.0% 793.39 31.74

12.0% 1,289.26 154.71
4.0% 1,785.12 71.40
100.0% 1,198.35

ed Present Value
Lab activity:
+ Enter formulas for yellow cells in rows
23-49. (Remember to use both absolute
and relative references to make the
cells copying more efficient)
+ If the decision rule is to choose the
investment with higher total Expected
Present Value, enter formula (using If
function) in yellow cell B53 to show
whether Investment A or Investment B
should be chosen.
NAME: Tran Thi Tam
Student ID.:

DATA SECTION
Apple Computer Corporation Sales
(in $ millions)

Years 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1983 214.3 228.0 267.3 273.2
1984 316.2 300.1 422.1 477.5
1985 698.3 435.3 374.9 409.8
1986 533.9 408.9 448.3 510.8
1987 662.3 575.3 637.1 786.4
1988 1,042.4 867.2 993.1 1,168.7
1989 1,405.1 1,246.9 1,248.2 1,383.8
1990 1,493.4 1,346.2 1,364.8 1,354.1

REPORT SECTION
Apple Computer Corporation
A Model to Adjust quarterly Sales for Seasonal, Trend and Cyclical Effects
(in $ millions)

Actual Four Qtr. Centered Actual as Average Adjusted

Sales Moving Moving % of % for Seasonal
Year Quarter Period Revenues Average Average MOV.AVG Each Qtr. Index

1983 1st 1 214.3

2nd 2 228.0
3rd 3 267.3 245.7 258.4 103.4%
4th 4 273.2 271.2 280.2 97.5%
1984 1st 5 316.2 289.2 308.6 102.5% 117.0% 117.2%
2nd 6 300.1 327.9 353.4 84.9% 90.9% 91.1%
3rd 7 422.1 379.0 426.7 98.9% 93.1% 93.3%
4th 8 477.5 474.5 491.4 97.2% 98.2% 98.4%
1985 1st 9 698.3 508.3 502.4 139.0%
2nd 10 435.3 496.5 488.0 89.2%
3rd 11 374.9 479.6 459.0 81.7%
4th 12 409.8 438.5 435.2 94.2%
1986 1st 13 533.9 431.9 441.1 121.1%
2nd 14 408.9 450.2 462.9 88.3%
3rd 15 448.3 475.5 491.5 91.2%
4th 16 510.8 507.6 528.4 96.7%
1987 1st 17 662.3 549.2 572.8 115.6%
2nd 18 575.3 596.4 630.8 91.2%
3rd 19 637.1 665.3 712.8 89.4%
4th 20 786.4 760.3 796.8 98.7%
1988 1st 21 1,042.4 833.3 877.8 118.8%
2nd 22 867.2 922.3 970.1 89.4%
3rd 23 993.1 1,017.9 1,063.2 93.4%
4th 24 1,168.7 1,108.5 1,156.0 101.1%
1989 1st 25 1,405.1 1,203.5 1,235.3 113.7%
2nd 26 1,246.9 1,267.2 1,294.1 96.4%
3rd 27 1,248.2 1,321.0 1,332.0 93.7%
 4th 28 1,383.8 1,343.1 1,355.5 102.1%
1990 1st 29 1,493.4 1,367.9 1,382.5 108.0%
2nd 30 1,346.2 1,397.1 1,393.3 96.6%
3rd 31 1,364.8 1,389.6
4th 32 1,354.1
1991 1st 33

Equation of Trend Line:

(taken from graph)

Intercept (a):
x co-efficient (b):

R^2 =0.882: 88.2% actual revenue can be explained by

 Forecasting- Apple computer co.:
+ The data section shows the sales figures (in $millions) for the Apple
Computer Corporation for the years 1983 to 1990.

Lecture Activity:
*Excel function "Transpose":
*Trend line: linear, y=a+bx with: a=intercept (what's its meaning?)
x=period number starting from 1
b= co-efficient (what's its meaning?)
How to add a trend line in Excel graph?
*Explain:
Seasonal effect:
Trend effect:
Cyclical effect:

Lab Activity:
Part A: Calculate adjusted seasonal indices and seasonally adjusted
quarterly revenues:
+ Step 1: Use Transpose function to fill in purple cells of column "Actual
Sales Revenues"
Instruction: Highlight D30:D33, then enter formula "=transpose(D11:G11
then press the combination of keys "Ctrl+Shift+Enter"
lical Effects
Repeat the procedure to complete the column.
Seasonally Quarterly + Step 2: Enter formulas in E32-G32 and copy the formulas down.
Adjusted Trend
Quarterly Values E32=AVERAGE(D30:D33)
Revenues Y=a+bX F32=AVERAGE(E32:E33)
G32=D32/F32
182.8 0.0
250.4 + Step 3: Enter formulas in H34:I37
286.5 H34=average(column G for 1st quarters)
277.6 H34=AVERAGE(G34,G38,G42,G46,G50,G54,G58)
269.8 H35, H36 and H37 are average of column G for 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters
329.6 respectively.
452.4 H35=AVERAGE(G35,G39,G43,G47,G51,G55,G59)
485.2 H36=AVERAGE(G32,G36,G40,G44,G48,G52,G56)
595.8 H37=AVERAGE(G33,G37,G41,G45,G49,G53,G57)
478.0
401.8 I34=H34/(AVERAGE($H$34:$H$37))
416.4 copy down
455.5
449.0 + Step 4:
480.4 Insert formulas in J30-J33 (Formula=actual sales revenues/adjusted
519.0 seasonal index):
565.0 J30=D30/$I$34
631.8 J31=D31/$I$35
682.8 J32=D32/$I$36
799.0 J33=D33/$I$37
889.3 then highlight the 4 cells and copy the combination of those 4 cells down
952.3
1,064.3 Part B: Draw a trend line for the time series of actual sales revenues and
1,187.5 forecast sales revenue for 1st quarter of 1991.
1,198.8 + Step 1: Use Chart Wizard to draw a diagram of actual sales revenues.
1,369.3
1,337.7 + Step 2: Click on a data point of the diagram to highlight it. Right click t
mouse, go to "Add trendline...".
-Choose linear mode
-Go to "Options"
.type "Trendline" in the trendline name custom box.
.tick the boxes "Display equation on chart" and "Display R-square value o
 Part B: Draw a trend line for the time series of actual sales revenues and
forecast sales revenue for 1st quarter of 1991.
+ Step 1: Use Chart Wizard to draw a diagram of actual sales revenues.

+ Step 2: Click on a data point of the diagram to highlight it. Right click t
1,406.0 mouse, go to "Add trendline...".
1,274.1 -Choose linear mode
1,478.4 -Go to "Options"
1,462.7 .type "Trendline" in the trendline name custom box.
1,375.9 .tick the boxes "Display equation on chart" and "Display R-square value o
Forecast: chart"
(The final chart should look like the one in exercise book)
Having the equation already, enter values of a and b in purple cells C68 a
C69.

+ Step 3: Enter formula in:

K30=$C$68+$C$69*C30
Then copy down.

+ Step 4: Create a text box and type in the answers for:

-What is the forecast sales revenue for 1st quarter of 1991?
-State the meaning of the R-square.

Mục đích là dự đoán sales của q1 năm 1980

y
Dựa vào trend line để ra đc đồ thị
phương trinh: Y=a+bx

cách dùng hàm transpose: highlight bốn ô hàng dọc

sau đó đánh công thức =transpose(array)
ấn tổ hợp phím ctr shift enter
Cách xóa một dữ liệu ô chọn nhầm:
làm lại
millions) for the Apple
0.

hat's its meaning?)

easonally adjusted

cells of column "Actual

a "=transpose(D11:G11)"
Enter"

e formulas down.

nd, 3rd and 4th quarters

revenues/adjusted

on of those 4 cells down.

tual sales revenues and

actual sales revenues.

highlight it. Right click the

ox.
Display R-square value on
tual sales revenues and

actual sales revenues.

highlight it. Right click the

ox.
Display R-square value on

se book)
nd b in purple cells C68 and

wers for:
er of 1991?
 BIG C PROMOTION PROGRAM FOR 2010

Customer
Data Table 1: Purchases Value Promotion Value Find a customer:
0 0 Input:
5,000,000 100,000
7,000,000 200,000 Output card:
10,000,000 300,000
15,000,000 400,000
20,000,000 500,000

2005's Total
Data Table 2: Customer ID Customer Name Address purchases
10092 Brad Pitt Ba Dinh 40,000,000
10032 Julia Robert Hai Ba Trung 6,000,000
10043 Nicole Kidman Hoan Kiem 12,000,000
10067 Harrison Ford Tay Ho 9,000,000
10021 Helen Hunt Gia Lam 20,000,000
10008 Jim Carey Dong Anh 19,000,000

Find a
Input:

Output
RAM FOR 2010

a customer:
Insert ID here: 10021

Name: Helen Hunt

Address Gia Lam
2005's total 20,000,000
Promotion 500,000
thank you for shopping with us; Helen
Hunt!

Find a customer:
Input: Insert ID here:
Challenge: Make the thank you note
like:
a. Thank you for shopping with us, Brad!
b. Thank you for shopping with us, Pitt!

Output card: Name:

Address
2005's total
Promotion
Thank you for
us, B
thank you note

pping with us, Brad!

pping with us, Pitt!