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Original Paper

Landslides Srahyrlandy Rocio Díaz I Edel Cadena I Salvador Adame I Norma Dávila
DOI 10.1007/s10346-019-01285-6
Received: 5 February 2019
Accepted: 13 September 2019 Landslides in Mexico: their occurrence and social im-
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
part of Springer Nature 2019
pact since 1935

Abstract Landslide inventories are extremely important. They are seismic and volcanic activity. Two-thirds of the country is consti-
vital for hazard analyses. This article presents an inventory of tuted by mountainous systems where geological, geomorphologi-
landslides in Mexico from 1935 to 2017. Although landslide mon- cal, structural, and climatic factors combine to define geologically
itoring studies exist in specific areas of the country, so far, no unstable zones (Morales Domínguez et al. 2016). It is a country
historical catalog has been published that provides a basis for with high exposure to the occurrence of landslides with disastrous
spatial-temporal analysis and determining impact in terms of the effects for society. According to Mexico’s National Center for
loss of human lives. The reported events were categorized as the Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED), there have been more than
following types of displacements: fall, landslide, and complex 75 disasters of significant magnitude over the last 20 years that
movement and flow; data were standardized and stored using have caused approximately 7000 deaths and tens of thousands of
SPSS software. In addition, estimates were produced to ascertain victims (Bitrán Bitrán 2001). These events usually take place in
the number of people who may have been affected by landslides in mountainous areas with the presence of human settlements, where
2019 based on their relationship with marginalization levels at the the occurrence of heavy rainfall plays an important role in their
national level, as elaborated by the National Population Council occurrence. According to Bitrán Bitrán (2001), in Mexico, geolog-
(CONAPO). Marginalization degrees represent the exclusion of a ical events have caused the deaths of between 6000 and 6500
population from development through socioeconomic inequalities people from 1980 to 1999, approximately 500 people per year.
that manifest themselves as low income and the lack of education, Therefore, the objective of this paper is to offer an overview of
health, infrastructure, and access to basic services. It was found the magnitude, location, and impact of landslides in Mexico, as
that localities with high and very high marginalization levels ac- well as the population that could be affected in the future. To
count for almost half of the landslides over 82 years. This study achieve this, an inventory of events from 1935 to 2017 is presented
reveals new findings in terms of the spatial distribution of events as a result of the review of reports from different free-access digital
and the affected populations that are considered a valuable con- databases, agencies, and other sources, as well as the determina-
tribution to the study of landslides in Mexico. tion of the municipalities with the highest frequency, and the social
impact this entails. The present analysis provides decision-making
Keywords Landslides . Inventory . Risk . Historicity . governmental authorities with information to accurately allocate
Population the necessary resources for disaster risk management in the most
affected regions; furthermore, it also presents essential data for the
Introduction construction of risk scenarios and for studies by the scientific
It is common to hear the phrase, BThose who do not know their community.
history are condemned to repeat it.^ Indeed, being aware of the
historicity of natural events is fundamental not only to date such Methods
events but also to determine their causes and effects. It is a first The construction of the inventory is presented in 2 phases: (i)
step in the estimation of recurrence, that is, the possibility of the consultation and collection of landslide records and (ii) standard-
events occurring again under similar conditions, as well as the ization and construction of the inventory. Subsequently, an anal-
localization of areas with high risk of disaster. The Hyogo Frame- ysis of the information was carried out to estimate the affected
work for Action for disaster risk reduction of the United Nations population in 2019 as well as the spatial distribution of the land-
(UN 2005) identifies the development and improvement of rele- slides at the national scale for the entire period.
vant databases as a key priority for the capacity building of
developing countries (Taylor et al. 2015).
There are research initiatives that have made notable efforts to Information gathering
produce global and national landslide inventories using different The collection of historical records of landslides was carried out
techniques that range from the consultation of news items to the based on the consultation of different free-access digital databases,
identification of displaced areas using geographic information agencies, and other sources for events that took place at the global,
systems (GIS) (Damm and Klose 2015; Devoli et al. 2007a; Devoli continental, and national levels. At the global level, various data-
et al. 2007b; Kirschbaum et al. 2010; Kirschbaum et al. 2015; Klose bases that compile landslides are presented. Although they repre-
et al. 2016; Korup 2005; Nadim et al. 2006; Palenzuela et al. 2015; sent a valuable contribution to the recognition of landslides, they
Pennington et al. 2015; Taylor et al. 2015; Trigila et al. 2010). are not complete (Van Den Eeckhaut et al. 2012).
However, most inventories are made for specific areas, and few Regarding Mexico’s generalities and global rank in the occur-
countries have developed initiatives at the national scale rence of landslides, the Global Landslide Catalog by the National
(Kirschbaum et al. 2010). Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was consulted
Mexico is a country with unique topographic, climatic, hydro- (NASA 2015). In addition, the records reported since 1900 by the
logical, and orographic characteristics that, owing to its location International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) developed by the Cen-
on tectonic plates in constant movement, frequently presents ter for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (Guha-
Landslides
Original Paper
Sapir n.d.) were taken into account (Table 1). This database offers this, duplicate events were suppressed, as the global inventories
the possibility of consulting their causes, dates, casualties, eco- only report the deadliest events, some of which are also described
nomic losses, graphs with trends of occurrence by type of event, in local inventories; in this way, the presentation of repeated
and maps with their worldwide distribution. However, it only events was prevented.
reports events with more than 10 casualties, thereby excluding It is worth mentioning that inventories describe the location of
most small-scale events (Van Den Eeckhaut et al. 2012). landslides by using the names of the places where they occurred;
At the regional level, the Disaster Effects Inventory System the events are not georeferenced with x,y coordinates, with the
(DESINVENTAR) (Corporación OSSO 2016) was consulted exception of a few cases documented in the Global Landslide
(Table 1); it presents a database with events as of 1970 with Catalog and INEGI. Owing to this, the homogenization of data in
information taken from newspaper sources that contain data on spatial terms was carried out by defining the name of the place as
dates, causes, number of lives lost, economic losses, and damage to well as the municipality in which the locality is found.
infrastructure. Inquiries can be carried out by country with filters Once the data were obtained, the database entries were stan-
for municipality or state, providing optimal volumes of informa- dardized; special attention was directed to correct spelling errors
tion to ascertain the recurrence of disasters according to the type and avoid duplicate information. The following fields were defined
of phenomenon. for the conformation of the database to homogenize the records
The publications Diagnosis of Dangers and Identification of and group them in a single database: entity code (state), munici-
Disaster Risks in Mexico and Mexican Continuity Record of the pality code, type, trigger, deaths, latitude, longitude, date, year, and
20th Century, newspapers, and CENAPRED were consulted. The month.
last is dedicated to the collection and preparation of statistical The homogenization of the database was carried out by
information about natural hazards contributed by different related adopting general typologies described in the inventories for
institutions. The collection of historical events is recorded up to the fields described previously. It is common to find that inven-
the year 2000 (Ordaz and Zeballos 2007). CENAPRED also in- tories present the same information, though with different ter-
cludes research data that present historical information on events minology; an instance of this is the reference to the triggering
caused by triggering factors such as rain and earthquakes applied factor as rainfall or precipitation. Owing to this, categories were
to some areas in Mexico (Alcántara-Ayala 2004; Alcántara-Ayala established for each field in such a manner that according to the
and García 2008; Jaimes et al. 2010). In addition, 659 records at the information level contained in the inventory, it may be included
national level were included that were compiled by the National in an encompassing category. For example, for the triggering
Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI) and can factor, descriptions such as tropical storm and hurricane were
be consulted in the Digital Map of Mexico (INEGI 2016a) (Table 1). found; these were grouped into a single category: tropical
It should be noted that in Mexico, up to two decades ago, the cyclone.
information and preparation of a national landslide inventory was The information in the field BType^ was reclassified using the
not of interest (Jaimes et al. 2010). The consolidation of civil following categories according to the EPOCH classification
protection actions and documentation of disasters began with (EPOCH 1993): landslide, fall, flow, and complex movement. In
the 1985 earthquake, which had a large effect on Mexico City; thus addition, debris flow and avalanche categories, documented in
far, this disaster remains the most documented (Ordaz and some records, were preserved because they have specific charac-
Zeballos 2007). According to Alcántara-Ayala (2004), by 2004, teristics and are terms commonly used in Latin America. In the
there was not a complete database of records of landslides at the field BTrigger,^ the categories were precipitation, earthquake, trop-
national level. Currently, this claim remains, as there is no coor- ical cyclone, unknown, and anthropogenic activities. In the last
dination among entities to compile information that is duplicated section, all the reported actions by humans are grouped as causes
or missing, which is the work done in this research. of landslides (e.g., inadequate construction, location, negligence,
and explosions). The BEntity Code^ and BMunicipality Code^
Standardization of data and construction of the inventory fields refer to the numerical codes for all the states and munici-
The construction of the inventory required a thorough review of palities of the Mexican Republic according to the National Insti-
various databases, from those at the global scale to regional and tute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) (2016b). Each of these
local ones; since their scale varies, they present varying degrees of fields presents its label with the name of the state and the munic-
accuracy in the information on the reported events. Because of ipality where the landslide occurred.

Estimation of the affected population


Table 1 Some sources consulted Technical and scientific reports rarely describe the type and
Sources Number of landslides Period magnitude of the damage as well as the consequences for soci-
ety (Devoli et al. 2007a). However, social impact is a crucial
Jaimes et al. 2010 4 1935–2010
element for the development and implementation of preventive
EM-DAT 35 1941–2017 measures since risk is a social construction, and the larger the
Alcántara-Ayala 2008 4 1956–1999 population located in unsuitable zones is, the higher the risk
level. For this reason, the frequency and distribution of land-
DESINVENTAR 2236 1970–2013
slide data were analyzed to identify the localities and the pop-
INEGI 659 2004–2011 ulation affected by landslide occurrence to ascertain, at the state
Global Landslide Catalog 59 2007–2013 and municipal levels, the percentage of population potentially at
risk in 2019.

Landslides
On the other hand, the layer for landslide distribution and frequen- municipality to which the locality belongs was adopted for that
cy developed by the Socioeconimic Data and Applications Center- particular locality. Later, the affected population was estimated for
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (SEDAC-NASA) the year 2019 by calculating the AAGR as follows:
(CHRR et al. 2005; Dilley et al. 2005) was used as an input for the
spatial distribution of events. This layer contains data on the area of 1) AAGR = ((Cf/Ci(1+t)− 1) × 100
the Mexican territory with levels of the occurrence of events, which
were validated by superimposing the inventory records (Fig. 1).
To obtain the population data, localities in areas with a high where Cf = population of the final year (2015); Ci = population
concentration of landslides were selected by localization in GIS. of the initial year (2010); and t = time in years. In this case, there is
When the locations with a high occurrence of events were obtain- only information from the 2010 census and a national inter-censal
ed, they were associated with the most recent population data, sample in INEGI 2015, and the estimate was produced as a func-
which in this case corresponds to the 2010 census (INEGI 2010). tion of the increment in 5 years from 2010 to 2015 to later estimate
This information was useful to estimate the affected populations the population for the following years (Table 2).
by municipality for 2019. This process was carried out in two steps: The estimates of the following years were calculated by apply-
(i) completing the population data in localities without records ing the AAGR from 2016 as follows:
and (ii) estimating the affected population for the year 2019 using
the average annual growth rate (AAGR). 2) Pop2016 = Pop2015 × (1+(AAGR/100)
To perform the estimation, it was necessary to complete the 3) Pop2017 = Pop2016 × (1+(AAGR/100)
population data in a locality (i.e., a formal subdivision of a mu- 4) Pop2018 = Pop2017 × (1+(AAGR/100)
nicipality) without information. The average population of the 5) Pop2019 = Pop2019 × (1+(AAGR/100)

Fig. 1 Areas with the highest concentrations of landslides nationwide based on CHRR et al. (2005) and the distribution of events collected in the inventories. a The areas
of the states of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas are presented in greater detail, as they present landslide concentrations. b Locations of concentrated events in localities in
the state of Guerrero. c Localities with a high occurrence of landslides in the state of Oaxaca. d Distribution of events in the southern state of Chiapas

Landslides
Original Paper
Table 2 Examples of estimations for years without population data by applying the AAGR
State Municipality Population Population AAGR Pop Pop Pop Pop
2010 2015 2010–2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Oaxaca San Miguel 2274 2097 – 1.61 2063 2030 1997 1965
Chicahua
Guerrero Coahuayutla de 13,025 12,725 – 0.46 12,666 12,607 12,548 12,490
José María
Izazaga
Chiapas Amatán 21,275 19,348 – 1.88 18,984 18,627 18,277 17,933
Puebla Zapotitlán 8220 8495 0.66 8551 8608 8664 8722
Michoacán Arteaga 21,790 22,138 0.32 22,208 22,279 22,349 22,420

Example improve susceptibility cartography since it emphasizes the distri-


To obtain those affected by municipality, the population data of bution, types, and patterns of past events (Gaidzik et al. 2017).
the localities where the landslides occurred were added, and the
percentage was calculated by adding the number of people affected
by locality and considering the total population of the municipal- Landslides worldwide
ity to which they belong (Table 3). According to EM-DAT figures worldwide, the number of land-
The estimation of the affected population was made taking the slides is on the rise. In 1978, landslide events were frequent; nearly
2010 census information and the 2015 inter-censal sample as a 150 events were registered. In 1990, landslide occurrence doubled
basis. The data were considered reliable despite their age since with 300 events of different types. Meanwhile, almost 550 events
these are the only population data available, and thus far, no were reported in the early 2000s (Fig. 2). It should be noted that
evidence of significant changes in population trends was found this database records events with more than 10 casualties, 100 or
for the 2010–2019 period. Mitigation measures can reduce the more people affected, or that resulted in a declaration of a state of
exposed population, but there are no data that give an account emergency or call for international assistance (Kirschbaum et al.
of this; it may be assumed that these measures are virtually absent 2015).
in many places, as there have been insufficient resources dedicated
for the prevention and reduction of both the vulnerability and the Landslides in Mexico
exposure of the population (Rodríguez 2018). Attention has been From 1935 to 2017, 2997 events were registered in Mexico, of which
paid to the response to emergencies but not to disaster prevention 1967 were landslides, 625 were flows, 384 were debris flows, 15 were
(Alcántara-Ayala et al. 2019) since the municipal governments in rock falls, 2 were avalanches, and 2 were complex movements (Fig.
these places lack the resources for this. 3a). Among the causes, it is emphasized that 93% of these events
were triggered by hydrometeorological factors such as rainfall,
Results storms, and cyclones and 2% by earthquakes, while 4% did not
Doubtlessly, disasters represent an interruption in the improve- present data on the causes (Fig. 3b), one event was caused by
ment of a region. Their occurrence means a catastrophe in social, volcanic activity and seven events were due to faults.
environmental, political, and economic terms. The recording of The annual occurrence of landslides shown in Fig. 4 exhibits an
natural events is fundamental in the analysis of risk because it increasing trend since 1999. However, in 2007, there was a signif-
allows the identification of their tendency to ascertain their return icant increase in the number of events (i.e., over 100 landslides
periods or recurrence for a determined period of time and space. annually). The year 2010 was the most critical with more than 900
Hence, it is possible to estimate when and where similar events will events; since 2007, at least 100 landslides have occurred every year
occur. An inventory of landslides is an essential initial step to (Fig. 4).

Table 3 Examples of the estimated population affected by municipality in 2019


State Municipality Affected population Estimated total population Percentage of affected
2019 2019 population
Oaxaca San Miguel Chicahua 1345 1965 68.45
Guerrero Coahuayutla de José 6677 12,490 53.46
María
Chiapas Amatán 7534 17,933 42.01
Puebla Zapotitlán 933 8722 10.7
Michoacán Arteaga 1843 22,420 8.22

Landslides
Fig. 2 Worldwide annual occurrence of landslides (source: EM-DAT database (www.emdat.be))

Geographically, landslides are located along the Mexican the state of Chiapas has the highest occurrence of events, but
mountain system, which covers the Sierra (the Spanish word these events are repeated in specific places, so high concentra-
for mountain range) of Baja California, Sierra Madre Oriental, tions are not visualized over large areas (Fig. 5).
Sierra Madre Occidental, and Sierra Madre Sur, as well as the The states with more than 100 events since 1935 are Chiapas,
coasts of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. There is a higher Oaxaca, Veracruz, Michoacán, Puebla, Jalisco, Sonora, Yucatan,
concentration in the central part of the country along the Hidalgo, and Mexico (Table 4, Fig. 6). At the municipal level, 357
Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt in Sierra Madre de Chiapas to the events occurred in the municipality of Amáten, followed by the
south, as well as in the border area with Guatemala (Fig. 5). Ángel Albino Corzo municipality with 168 events, both in the state
Nearly half of the localities that register landslides are located at of Chiapas. Altamirano in Chiapas had 45 events; in Michoacán,
altitudes ranging from 1000 to 2500 m above sea level. the municipality of Aguilillas, registered a total of 39 events; Atil in
A higher concentration is noticed in the center of the coun- Sonora had 23 events, followed by Ensenada in Baja California
try; in the states of Hidalgo, Mexico, Puebla, and Tlaxcala; and with 22 events. These last two stand out, as they belong to states
in the central region of Veracruz along its border with Puebla that have not been associated with the occurrence of landslides
and northern Mexico City. It is likely that this concentration is (Table 5).
related to population density since these are the states with the The monthly analysis of landslide occurrence reveals that
heaviest infrastructure development in the country. However, most events occur during the rainy season, which extends from

Fig. 3 Occurrence of landslides and their triggers in Mexico from 1935 to 2017. a Events according to type of movement. b Causes or triggers of landslides

Landslides
Original Paper

Fig. 4 Temporal distribution of landslides in Mexico

May to October; this suggests that the main trigger is rainfall. & Landslides and mudflows in Acapulco and different zones of
According to the historic database of the deadliest events, they the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero in 1997 caused by Hurricane
have been caused by phenomena such as hurricanes and trop- Pauline (Alcántara-Ayala and Echavarría 2014), 247 people died
ical storms (Table 6). Some examples are as follows: (Alcántara-Ayala 2008).

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of landslides in Mexico and altitude in the period from 1935 to 2017

Landslides
Table 4 Number of landslides by state in Mexico during 1935–2017 (Kirschbaum et al. 2010; Corporación OSSO 2016; INEGI 2016a)
State Number of events State Number of events State Number of events
Chiapas 726 Tlaxcala 85 Campeche 19
Oaxaca 353 Chihuahua 62 Coahuila 18
Veracruz 260 Nuevo Leon 52 Durango 17
Michoacán 194 Tamaulipas 51 Morelos 16
Puebla 173 San Luis Potosi 44 Queretaro 16
Jalisco 156 Sinaloa 36 Colima 14
Sonora 127 Zacatecas 30 Nayarit 13
Yucatan 116 Tabasco 28 Aguascalientes 10
Hidalgo 110 Baja California 26 Quintana Roo 10
Mexico 100 Guanajuato 23 Baja California Sur 2
Guerrero 85 Distrito Federal (Mexico City) 22

& Flow in Amatán, Chiapas where 16 people died due to the Another cause of landslides is earthquakes. Recently, several
passage of tropical storm Matthew in September 2010. earthquakes occurred in the central and southern regions of the
& Hurricane Manuel in September 2013 brought heavy rain that State of Mexico (El Universal 2017). The highest intensity was
triggered mudflows and landslides in La Pintada, Guerrero, registered on September 7, 2017, with a magnitude of 8.1 (SSN-
where 71 people lost their lives. UNAM 2017a). The epicenter occurred in a rural, mountainous
& In 2016, 32 people died due to landslides caused by heavy rain area with a high potential for landslide occurrence. Thus, there
after tropical storm Earl hit the state of Puebla (CNN 2016). were events on the roads of the state of Oaxaca (Televisa 2017)

Fig. 6 Evidence of some of the deadliest landslides in Mexico (Table 6). a Landslide in Minantitlán, Colima, 1959 (source: Padilla 2006); b Landslide in Angangueo,
Michoacán, 2010 (source: El Universal 2010); c Landslide in La Pintada, Guerrero, 2013 (source: Alcántara-Ayala and Echavarría 2014); d Landslide in Teziutlán, Puebla,
1999 (source: Alcántara-Ayala and Echavarría 2014)

Landslides
Original Paper
Table 5 Municipalities with more than ten landslides (Kirschbaum et al. 2010; Corporación OSSO 2016; INEGI 2016a)
Municipality Number of Municipality Number of Municipality Number of
events events events
Amatán 357 Atil 23 Buenavista 13
Angel Albino Corzo 168 Ensenada 22 Amaxac de 13
Guerrero
Altamirano 45 Arteaga 22 Almoloya 12
Acuamanala de Miguel 40 Chemax 21 Cotija 11
Hidalgo
Aguilillas 39 Dzilam de Bravo 19 Acatlán 11
Aconchi 39 Atitalaquia 17 Bejucal de 10
Ocampo
Álvaro Obregón 38 Acaxochitlán 16 Balancán 10
Chahuites 30 Amatenango de la 14 Dzilam González 10
Frontera
Tapachula 28 Atemajac de Brizuela 13

and surrounding areas. The 7.1-magnitude earthquake on Sep- hand, the states of Tlaxcala and Durango rose the most in the
tember 19th caused damage to the southern routes of the State classification of Baffected population per 10,000 inhabitants^
of Mexico (SSN-UNAM 2017b) with significant human and eco- after Nayarit; that is, the proportion of their population affected
nomic losses in the states of Mexico and Morelos and mainly in increased.
Mexico City, which were declared in a state of emergency At the municipal level, 995 out of 2454 municipalities experi-
(Jefatura de Gobierno de la Ciudad de México 2017). enced these events. In only 23 municipalities, one out of five
inhabitants may suffer some damage, that is, 20% of the total
Social impact of the possibly affected population. The municipalities with the
According to reports, over 82 years, 3447 people died due to the largest numbers of affected people are as follows from highest to
occurrence of some types of landslide. The events that triggered lowest: Del Nayar, in the state of Nayarit, with 23,425 people. The
the greatest loss of lives were the landslide on October 1, 1956, in municipality of Motozintla holds the second place with 21,778
La Paz, Baja California, with 1000 casualties; the landslide in people in this condition. San Juan Cancuc in Chiapas is ranked
Minatitlán, Colima, with 871 casualties on October 27, 1959; the 3rd with 19,850 inhabitants at risk (Table 8). It is worth mention-
landslide on October 11, 1999, in Coyutla, Veracruz, with 800 ing that 8 of the 10 municipalities with the largest number of
casualties; and the landslide in Teziuitlán, Puebla, on October 4 people exposed to a landslide belong to the state of Chiapas.
of the same year, in which 263 people lost their lives (see In terms of social impact due to landslides, it is important to
Table 6). Although the affected and deceased people in some note that despite the municipality of Del Nayar having the highest
reports are attributed to landslides, a gap in this information is affected population, it is not located in a region to which attention
noticeable since only 22% of the records in the database register is usually directed. The areas of Puebla, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Vera-
this type of data. For this reason and due to the importance of cruz, and Chiapas receive significant help because of the occur-
having up-to-date information useful for decision-making, it is rence of large-magnitude events in terms of size and damage.
vital to estimate the number of people who live at risk of future However, currently, the state of Nayarit is not part of the list of
landslides at the state and municipal levels based on the heavy most commonly affected states. This may be because the events do
concentration of past events in these areas. not occur in the same places, have a lower magnitude, and/or are
According to estimates, at the national level in 2019, 1,405,978 poorly registered.
people in 21 states may be affected by landslides. The states of The highest number of deaths due to landslide disasters has
Chiapas, Jalisco, Veracruz, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca ex- been recorded in the municipalities of Teziutlan in the state of
hibit the highest number of possible affected people, where almost Puebla and Atoyac de Alvarez in the state of Guerrero. It is noted
4 out of 5 people (i.e., 81.95%) can suffer some kind of damage. that among the 10 municipalities with the highest number of
Chiapas leads the list with a little less than half of the total deaths, three are located in the state of Chiapas (Table 9); however,
population, followed by the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca the rank changes when the loss of human lives per 10,000 inhab-
(Table 7). itants is considered. Table 10 shows the ranking for the munici-
Table 7 also shows that the states of Chiapas, Guerrero, and palities with the highest number of annual deaths per 10,000
Oaxaca occupy the first three places for the Baffected inhabitants. It was found that 3 of the 10 municipalities with the
population^ ranking, and in the Baffected population for every highest number of deaths and with the highest number of annual
10,000 inhabitants,^ Veracruz occupies the first position, Chia- deaths per 10,000 inhabitants belong to the state of Puebla (i.e.,
pas the second, and Nayarit the third position. On the other Teziutlan, Eloxochitlan, and Tlaola). Meanwhile, the municipality

Landslides
Table 6 Deadliest events reported in Mexico (more than 15 deaths) (Alcántara-Ayala and García 2008; Kirschbaum et al. 2010; Corporación OSSO 2016; INEGI 2016a)
Type Place Deaths Trigger Date Source
Landslide La Paz, Baja California 1000 Hurricane 10/01/1956 Ayala, 2008
Sur
Landslide Minatitlán, Colima 871 Hurricane 10/27/1959 Ayala, 2008
Landslide Coyutla and 800 Rain 11/10/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper
Totonacapan,
Veracruz
Landslide Teziutlán and Sierra 263 Rain 04/10/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper
Norte, Puebla
Landslides Oaxaca, Acapulco, 247 Hurricane 10/8–9/1997 CENAPRED, 2004 In: Ayala, 2008
Guerrero
Landslide Tlalpujahua, Michoacán 176 Rain 05/27/1937 Lugo and Flores, 1997 In: Ayala, 2008
Landslide Motozintla, Chiapas 171 Rain 10/6–12/1998 La Jornada daily newspaper
Landslide San Pedro Atocpan, 150 Rain 06/04/1935 Lugo and Flores, 1997 In: Ayala, 2008
Mexico City
Landslide Valdivia, Chiapas 150 Rain 09/6–12/1998 La Jornada daily newspaper Ayala, 2008
Landslide Atentique, Jalisco 100 Rain 10/16/1955 OFDA/CRED database
and
mud-
flow
Mudflow Atoyac de Álvarez, La 71 Hurricane 09/16/2013
Pintada, Guerrero
Landslide Papantla, Veracruz 60 Rain 10/07/1999
Landslide Eloxochitlán, Sierra 60 Rain 07/05/2007 La Jornada daily newspaper
Negra, Puebla, 8 km
on the state highway
Tacotepec de Porfirio
Díaz-Tehuacán
Landslide Motozintla, several 49 Tropical 10/17/2005 La Jornada daily newspaper
communities, Chiapas storm
Landslide Ángel Albino Corzo, 45 La Niña 09/17/1998 La Jornada daily newspaper
Jaltenango de la Paz,
Chiapas.
Landslide Tlaola, Sierra Norte, 39 Rain 10/08/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper
Puebla
Landslide Xaltepec and 32 Tropical 08/08/2016 CNN daily newspaper
Chicahuaxtla, Puebla storm
Landslide Manzanillo, Colima 21 Rain 11/27/1982 El Universal daily newspaper
Landslide Teziutlán, Puebla 21 Rain 11/01/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper

Landslides
Table 6 (continued)
Type Place Deaths Trigger Date Source
Debris flow Irapuato, Guanajuato 20 Overflowing 08/21/1973 Excélsior daily newspaper

Landslides
Landslide Santa María del Río, San 20 Hurricane 07/05/2010 El Universal daily newspaper
Luis Potosi.
Mexico-Laredo High-
way
Landslide Ostuacán, San Juan 19 Rain 11/06/2007 La Jornada daily newspaper
Grijalva, Chiapas
Flow Angangueo, Michoacán 19 Rain 02/05/2010 La Jornada and El Universal daily newspapers
Landslide Hermosillo, Sonora 18 Rain 08/21/1977 Excélsior daily newspaper
Landslide Tenampulco, Puebla, 18 Rain 10/07/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper
border area between
Puebla and Veracruz
Landslide Pantepec, Puebla 18 Rain 10/08/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper
Original Paper

Landslide Buenavista, Tabasco 18 Rain 10/31/2007 http://www.capetimes.co.za/?fArticleId=410945


Flow Amatán, Chiapas 16 Tropical 09/29/2010 http://technews.tmcnet.com/topics/associated-press/articles/106209-death-toll-southern-mexico-Flujo
Settlement of cyclone de lodos-up-32.htm
Reforma and Planada
(Amatan, Chiapas),
Nueva Colombia
community
Debris flow Tequila, Jalisco 16 Tropical 07/06/1975 El Universal daily newspaper
storm
Landslide Tlalmanalco, Mexico. 15 Rain 10/11/1976 Excélsior daily newspaper
San Andres, paper
factory
Landslide Iron mine, Charcas, San 15 Another 10/06/1978
Luis Potosi cause
Landslide Atoyac de Álvarez, 15 Rain 09/02/1988 La Jornada daily newspaper
Guerrero
Landslide San Salvador, San 15 Rain 10/05/1999 La Jornada daily newspaper
Miguel Acambay,
Hidalgo
Debris flow Nuevo Leon, 49 15 Hurricane 07/01/2010 First governmental report of Nuevo Leon 2010
municipalities were
affected
Table 7 Estimated affected population for 2019 in the states of Mexico
State Affected population Rank Affected population for every 10,000 inhabitants Rank
Chiapas 432,973 1 802 2
Guerrero 189,631 2 527 4
Oaxaca 174,264 3 431 5
Veracruz 147,366 4 1.205 1
Michoacán 112,145 5 239 6
Jalisco 95,870 6 115 7
México 74,674 7 93 8
Puebla 55,518 8 88 9
Nayarit 44,953 9 610 3
Distrito Federal 28,332 10 17 14
(Mexico City)
Chihuahua 12,766 11 43 10
Hidalgo 12,652 12 35 12
Durango 6992 13 39 11
Colima 5676 14 6 18
Tlaxcala 3428 15 26 13
Morelos 3270 16 17 15
Tabasco 2297 17 11 16
Querétaro 2010 18 8 17
Zacatecas 814 19 5 19
Guanajuato 323 20 1 20
Sinaloa 24 21 0 21

of San Cristobal de la Barranca, state of Jalisco, holds the second It is worth mentioning that the concentration of events occurs in
place with 45 deaths per 10,000 inhabitants; the municipality of areas with high degrees of marginalization, which indicates that the
Atoyac de Alvarez, in the state of Guerrero, occupies the 2nd and most marginalized populations are the most prone to experience the
5th positions for the highest number of deaths and the highest effect of any sort of landslide.
number of annual deaths for every 10,000 inhabitants,
respectively. Discussion
Marginalization is multidimensional and considers the exclu- Landslide research in Mexico has been carried out for some
sion of a population from development. The degrees of marginal- time. Without a doubt, there have been significant advances in
ization are the result of the application of the index developed by their documentation by government entities and researchers.
CONAPO (2015), which is a summary measure that identifies Alcántara-Ayala (2008) described the most disastrous landslides
inequalities according to the deficiencies suffered by the popula- for the country between 1935 and 2006; Jaimes et al. (2010)
tion as a result of the lack of access to education, housing in poor developed a georeferenced database with the most important
condition, low infrastructural development, and lack of material landslides triggered by rainfall and earthquakes. In 2008, a
goods (CONAPO 2010). Through the Dalenius and Hodges meth- proposal for the construction of a national inventory was pub-
od, the degree of marginalization is classified in 5 ranges (very lished (Alcántara-Ayala and García 2008) and was applied to a
high, high, medium, low, and very low), where populations with portion of the Sierra Norte de Puebla. As a result, the system-
high degrees of marginalization have greater deficiencies in edu- atization of events and identification of recent landslides were
cation, with the lowest monetary income and housing with inad- accomplished for a specific area of such state; however, its
equate infrastructure. application at the national scale was not carried out.
The analysis of the degree of marginalization of the zones where It should be noted that despite the invaluable efforts of the
landslides have occurred shows that 48% of the landslides took place aforementioned studies, a complete and updated inventory at the
in localities with a high and very high degree of marginalization, and national level has not been available up to the present. In addition,
populations with medium and low degrees of marginalization expe- many of the landslide studies characterize events in specific areas
rienced 40% of the landslides. On the other hand, the areas with very at a local scale and the majority from the perspective of engineer-
low degrees of marginalization experienced 12% of the events (Fig. 7). ing. Therefore, it is evident that more attention is paid to events

Landslides
Original Paper
that have large dimensions; those that were small and did not
Percentage of municipal generate loss of human lives or affected the population were not
documented and much less georeferenced. Much of the research is
addressed from a local perspective. Therefore, it is necessary to
build landslide inventories at the national level with the intention
population

of carrying out regional studies that provide spatial information


49.50
29.36
28.00

35.44

40.77
11.46

10.13

51.35
33.38
6.88
about the recurrence of phenomena, since having an estimation of
affected people Bmost of the time^ depends on complex variables
that entail a close relation with social aspects.
It is worth mentioning that the heavy concentration of occur-
rence of landslides in areas with high degrees of marginalization
population
Affected

indicates that the most marginalized populations are the most


11,493
10,777
10,629

9828

9660
9492
9472
9428

9339
9320
prone to experience the effect of any sort of landslide. This work
represents an effort to complement such research from a basic
aspect, such as the collection of events over a long period,
Coyuca de Catalán

Chilapa de Álvarez
General Heliodoro

San José Tenango


reaching another dimension that is rarely dealt with in the coun-
try. The analysis of data from a national perspective for the
Totolapan
Municipality

San Miguel

integration of landslide occurrence, spatial distribution, temporal


Villa Corzo
Huitiupán
Castillo
Pantelhó

Luvianos trend, and social impact has not been addressed properly in the
Tonalá

country. This is the first study where efforts have been made to
determine the number of people who could be affected by all
kinds of landslides and how these landslide places relate to the
degree of marginalization.
Guerrero
Guerrero

Guerrero

Guerrero
Chiapas

Chiapas
Chiapas

Chiapas

Oaxaca
México

The historical data on landslide occurrence, including the spa-


State

tial component, are fundamental tools in the assessment of land-


slide risk. Historical records of landslide occurrence in a
particular area provide supporting evidence to explain why the
Rank

area is shown as high risk in a landslide risk map. Its relevance has
11
12
13

14

15
16
17
18

19
20

been recognized by the United Nations in the Hyogo Action


Framework.
Of course, it is clear that there are limitations in the collection
Percentage of municipal

of data; many of them cannot be accessed for free. There are also
problems with the veracity of the necessary information, being
essential to consulting and making comparisons between various
sources (Klose et al. 2015; Devoli et al. 2007a; Alcántara-Ayala and
population

García 2008; Guzzetti et al. 1994). This creates a certain level of


Table 8 Municipalities with the largest affected population estimated for the year 2019

46.40
28.59
49.25

13.17

38.49
35.73

10.31

28.91

uncertainty that must be considered. The same is true for the


4.00

5.20

population estimates since these give approximate data on popu-


lation increases based on the 2010 Population and Housing
Census.
To reduce the uncertainty in the investigation, in the first place,
population

it is required to have updated population data. Since Mexico


Affected

23,425
21,788
19,850

18,789

18,391
15,266
14,872
14,863

13,979
12,301

conducts censuses every 10 years, it is a difficult task to obtain


current data; this way, up to the present, estimates are the most
accurate way. Even if in the 9 years for which the estimation was
made there may have been changes with regard to the number of
La Concordia
Municipality

people exposed owing to the implementation of municipal policies


Motozintla

Milpa Alta
Tapachula
Del Nayar

Simojovel
Cancuc

Chenalhó

Ocosingo
San Juan

for risk management, the data for the population of localities are
Chilón

assumed, as there is no evidence of implementing such measures.


This occurs because in Mexico, there is no strategy oriented to
strengthen preventive capacity; their actions are rather reactive,
which has led to the concentration of federal resources in efforts
Federal

to assist and alleviate disasters after their occurrence. Between


Chiapas
Chiapas

Chiapas

Chiapas
Chiapas
Chiapas

Chiapas
Chiapas
Distrito
Nayarit
State

2004 and 2012, approximately 89.4 billion MXN (4.6 billion USD)
were channelled to the Fund for Natural Disasters, while only
approximately 1.7 billion MXN (86.6 million USD) were allocated
for preventive initiatives (Mansilla 2010).
Rank

For instance, in the most affected states and municipalities,


10
1
2
3

5
6
7
8

there were no reports on the implementation of measures to

Landslides
Table 9 Municipalities with the highest number of deaths
Rank State Municipality Deaths
1 Puebla Teziutlán 285
2 Guerrero Atoyac de Álvarez 163
3 Puebla Eloxochitlán 60
4 Chiapas Motozintla 54
5 Chiapas Ángel Albino Corzo 51
6 Chiapas Amatenango de la Frontera 46
7 Puebla Tlaola 45
8 Mexico Naucalpan de Juárez 44
9 Veracruz Coscomatepec 44
10 Distrito Federal (Mexico City) Álvaro Obregón 38

reduce risk, and in some cases, it was found that the actions this purpose, the use of GIS and satellite images is proposed as a
taken were to relocate the populations. This is the case for resource that allows the recognition and mapping of landslides at
Veracruz, where 12 communities were relocated; however, only a national scale. Undoubtedly, this difficult task represents a long-
two were permanent: Rincón de Negros in the municipality of term challenge where joint work between experts and government
Alto Lucero and Colonia de Cerro del Mesón in Poza Rica. The entities is a key element.
other 10 were partially and temporarily relocated, so they are Another aspect is the creation of a repository that accurately
still at risk (Ferrer et al. 2013). In the case of Motozintla, the includes the cartographic information of sliding areas. Several
exposure of approximately 700 people was reduced, but this has studies have now dabbled in the use of GIS and remote sensing
unleashed a series of social consequences that impact the dete- for specific areas of some states; however, such information is
rioration of the quality of life of a social group with a tendency to live disaggregated. With this information and future landslide recog-
in a risk zone. The relocations occurred in places where the popula- nitions at the national level applying these techniques, the land-
tion is exposed to new threats, such as the Vida Mejor III urbaniza- slide areas in each locality could be covered in a more detailed
tion located 200 m from a garbage dump, as well as alternatives for way, thus improving the assessment of their potential impact.
social welfare, productive projects, and employment for families and The efforts of this and future research, as well as that of
inhabitants that favor the gradual degradation of living conditions academics and experts from the scientific community, could be
and standardization in poverty (Briones Gamboa 2010). directed in such a way that a national inventory can be consoli-
The estimates could improve if more accurate and updated dated with data by event, magnitude, and exposed population. For
information on the population by locality would be available, as the last, the estimation method used in this research could be
well as the population at risk or municipal reports on risk reduc- applied. The advances in this aspect would increase the capacity
tion. It is also vital to have data on landslides at the national level, of the country to develop adequate disaster prevention programs,
such as the spatial representation of their area in polygons. For with actions aimed at the areas that need it the most.

Table 10 Municipalities with the highest number of deaths per 10,000 inhabitants
Rank State Municipality Deaths/10,000 inhabitants
1 Puebla Eloxochitlán 48.01
2 Jalisco San Cristóbal de la Barranca 45.25
3 Oaxaca San Juan Coatzóspam 31.66
4 Puebla Teziutlán 28.55
5 Guerrero Atoyac de Álvarez 27.16
6 Mexico Zacazonapan 26.37
7 Oaxaca Santo Domingo Tepuxtepec 23.55
8 Michoacán Angangueo 23.08
9 Puebla Tlaola 22.45
10 Chiapas Ángel Albino Corzo 17.71

Landslides
Original Paper

Fig. 7 Landslides by degree of marginalization at the national level. Zones of high marginalization with concentrations of landslides are shown in greater detail

Conclusions associated with the passage of hurricanes and tropical storms.


In many parts of the world, including North America, the sever- Moreover, earthquakes have a lower incidence in the generation
ity of landslide impacts rarely receives extensive scientific atten- of this type of process, possibly because earthquakes occur less
tion (Wieczorek and Leahy 2008; Spizzichino et al. 2013), as frequently than rain.
landslides are characterized by large, widely dispersed damages The analysis of the spatial distribution allowed the identifi-
(cited by Klose, Damm and Highland, 2015). The impacts of cation of areas at risk since these states are historically recog-
landslides are a social problem (Klose et al. 2015), which seems nized as the most affected by these types of events remain, as is
to be increasing worldwide (Nadim et al. 2006), and Mexico is the case of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Michoacán, and Puebla.
not an exception. However, new areas of occurrence, including Yucatan, Sonora,
This document presents the first database of landslides in and Jalisco, are revealed. At the municipal level, Del Nayar, in
Mexico at a national scale as a contribution to increasing the the state of Nayarit, stands out as the municipality with the
capacity of the country to improve good governance based on largest number of people who may be affected by the occurrence
interdisciplinary regional research. The results obtained go be- of an event.
yond the basic aspect of grouping and storing historical records. Furthermore, people who live in areas with a high occurrence of
This study offers a spatial analysis of data from a broader geo- landslides concentrated in the states of Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca,
graphical and social perspective, revealing the spatial-temporal Veracruz, and Michoacán usually live in small rural areas in
distribution of events over 82 years and their impact in terms of regions with steep slopes. There is a direct relationship between
the affected population. the degree of marginalization of the population and the number of
This work shows that landslides have had an increasing trend landslides: high degrees of marginalization have the highest per-
as of the 1990s. The year 2010 presents the highest occurrences of centage of occurrence of events. This is because there is an unbal-
landslides. The frequency increased in 2007, and since then, at anced distribution that tends to place less-fortunate people into
least 100 events have occurred annually. Rain is the main trigger more vulnerable areas, thus increasing their suffering, owing to
since most of the events are due to intense rain, and some are their poor capacity to respond to any kind of landslide.

Landslides
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