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COMPETENCIES METHODS
1. Listing of epidemiological techniques and methods Lecture, Review of Research Articles .
2. Describing application of these methods to communicable and non- Project work in Community and Hospital.
communicable diseases in community and hospital situation
3. Apply biostatistical method and technique Lecture, Practical and Project work.
4. Deciding when there is epidemic visit to District health office and record section
1. Use epidemiology as a scientific tool to make rational decision relevant Case Study And Project Work
to community & individual patient intervention
2. Collect , analyse , interpret & present simple community & hospital Project Work
based data.
8. To keep track of the disease in the community & to decide the action if Lecture and Case study
warranted at PHC level.
3. Deciding when there is epidemic visit to district health office and record section
9. Collect , analyse , interpret & present data related to out break Project Work
10. Applying appropriate statistical method to test the significance of Project Work
association.
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CONTENTS
SECTIONS Topics
SECTION - A Epidemiological methods and techniques
ANNEXURES
OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
(Trigger & Response Mechanisms)
In IDSP
IDSP forms and surveillance
guidelines
Writing reports/ articles
Reviewing a research article
Exercise on understanding
community
Exercise Community Involvement
and Communication
Exercise on supportive supervision
2
SECTION – A
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Epidemiology module of practical skills
Learning Objective
The student should be able to know the relevance & importance of applying epidemiological
skills for effective outcome to bring out effectiveness as a basic doctor in Rural e.g. PHC&
other urban settings .
Student should be able to understand the implication of epidemiological principles in
various National Health Programmes.
Use epidemiology as a scientific tool to make rational decision relevant to community &
individual patient intervention
Whenever should students go for a are going to field visits they he/she should be able to do the
Measurement of morbidity , mortality , Incidence & prevalence from existing data of recent
outbreaks in community provided by the health centre authorities.
Epidemiology Defined
What is epidemiology? This was the question put forward in a group of doctors in a district doctors
meet , and the answers were,
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"The study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states in
specified populations, and the application of this study to control health
problems."
Study—Epidemiology is the basic science of public health. It's a highly quantitative discipline based on
principles of statistics and research methodologies.
Distribution—Epidemiologists study the distribution of frequencies and patterns of health events within
groups in a population. To do this, they use descriptive epidemiology, which characterizes health events in
terms of time, place, and person.
Determinants—Epidemiologists also attempt to search for causes or factors that are associated
with increased risk or probability of disease. This type of epidemiology, where we move
from questions of "who," "what," "where," and "when" and start trying to answer "how"
and "why," is referred to as analytical epidemiology.
Health-related states—Although infectious diseases were clearly the focus of much of the early
epidemiological work, this is no longer true. Epidemiology as it is practiced today is applied
to the whole spectrum of health-related events, which includes chronic disease,
environmental problems, behavioral problems, and injuries in addition to infectious disease.
Populations—One of the most important distinguishing characteristics of epidemiology is that
it deals with groups of people rather than with individual patients.
Control—Finally, although epidemiology can be used simply as an analytical tool for studying
diseases and their determinants, it serves a more active role. Epidemiological data steers
public health decision making and aids in developing and evaluating interventions to control
and prevent health problems. This is the primary function of applied, or field, epidemiology.
A comparison between the practice of public health and the more familiar practice of health
care helps in describing epidemiology.
First, where health care practitioners collect data on an individual patient by taking a
medical history and conducting a physical exam, epidemiologists collect data about an entire
population through surveillance systems or descriptive epidemiological studies.
The health care practitioner uses his or her data to make a differential diagnosis. The
epidemiologist's data is used to generate hypotheses about the relationships between
exposure and disease.
Both disciplines then test the hypotheses, the health care practitioner by conducting
additional diagnostic studies or tests, the epidemiologist by conducting analytical studies
such as cohort or case-control studies.
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The final step is to take action. The health care practitioner prescribes medical treatment,
and the epidemiologist, some form of community intervention to end the health problem
and prevent its recurrence.
One succinct way to sum up the task of epidemiologists is to say that they "count things."
Basically, epidemiologists count cases of disease or injury, define the affected population,
and then compute rates of disease or injury in that population. Then they compare these
rates with those found in other populations and make inferences regarding the patterns of
disease to determine whether a problem exists,. For example, in the hepatitis B example earlier, you might
ask: Is the rate of disease among people with no know risk factors greater than we would expect? Is the
pattern or distribution of the cases suspicious? Once a problem has been identified, the data are used to
determine the cause of the health problem; the modes of transmission; any factors that are related to
susceptibility, exposure, or risk; and any potential environmental determinants.
I. MEASUREMENT OF FREQUENCIES
V. MEASUREMENTS OF MORBIDITY
I. MEASUREMENTS OF FREQUENCIES:
i. Rate:
The rate is the occurrence of a particular event in a population during a given time period. Example:
Crude Death Rate
No. of deaths in one year
Death rate= _____________________ X 1000
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Mid- year population
e.g., 24 deaths occurred in a village having mid-year population of 4000
Calculation:
Death rate in that village = 24X1000/4000=6 per 1000 population
Note: Rate comprises the following elements- numerator, denominator, time specification and
multiplier. The time dimension is usually a calendar year. The rate is expressed per 1000 or some
other round figure selected according to the convenience or convention, to avoid fractions.
Types
a. Crude Rates: birth and death rates. These are un-standardized rates.
b. Specific rates: disease specific, age and sex specific, time specific.
c. Standardized rates: these are obtained by direct or indirect method of standardization or
adjustment e.g. age and sex standardized rates.
ii. Ratio:
It expresses a relation in size between two random quantities. The numerator is not a component of
denominator. The numerator and denominator may involve an interval of time or may be
instantaneous in time. Broadly, ratio is the result of dividing one quantity by another. It is expressed
in the form of x: y, e.g. sex ratio, doctor-population ratio, child-woman ratio, etc.
Say sex ratio is 933: 1000.
iii. Proportion:
is a ratio, which indicates the relation in magnitude, of a part to the whole. The numerator is
always included in the denominator. It is usually expressed in percentage, e.g. percent of under five
children suffering from malnutrition of the total under five populations. Say a proportion of 60% of
the under five children is suffering from malnutrition.
Exercises and Solutions
Recall the formulas for the crude birth and fertility rates:
7
For each of the counties, calculate the following:
1. the crude birth rate
2. the crude fertility rate
3. the fertility rate for adolescents aged 10-17
4. the percent of total births to adolescents aged 10-17
Do either County X or County Y have an excess of adolescent births? Which county is in more need
of programs targeted at the adolescent population?
SOLUTION:
Rates and Percent Distributions
Solution for Exercise A
County Y has a higher % births to adolescents than County X, but a lower adolescent fertility rate.
This is because the adult women in County Y have a lower fertility rate than the adult women in
County X resulting in the lower overall birth and fertility rates seen in the above table for County Y.
The elevated %births to adolescents in County Y compared to County X, therefore, is due to these
differences in the rates for the adult women.
The % births to adolescents are not a rate because adult women who are no longer at risk of
delivering in their teen years are included in the denominator. It can be argued that the adolescent
fertility rates are a “fairer" comparison of the two counties since they are based solely on the
experience of their adolescent populations, unrelated to the experience of other women. On the
other hand, some might argue for using% births to adolescents precisely because it reflects the
experience of teenage women in relation to the overall fertility behaviour in their communities.
Defining excess adolescent fertility must be based on a community standard. It may be that any
adolescent childbearing is considered an excess, or this may be determined in relation to a state or
National average or goal.
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II. CONCEPT OF NUMERATOR AND DENOMINATOR:
For calculation of rate, ratio or proportion proper understanding of the Concept of Numerator and
Denominator is very important.
a. Numerator: Numerator refers to the number of times an event (e.g. number of birth) has
occurred in a population, during a specified time period.
b. Denominator: Numerator has little meaning unless it is related to the denominator. The
epidemiologist has to choose an appropriate denominator while calculating a rate. It may be related
to: (I) population (II) the total events.
(I) Denominator related to the population:
(i) Mid year population: Because the population size changes daily due to births, deaths and
migration, the mid year population is commonly chosen as a denominator. The population
as on 1st July is mid-year population.
(ii) Population at risk: It is important to note that the calculation of measures of disease
frequency depends on correct estimates of the numbers of people under consideration.
Ideally, these figures should include only those people who are potentially susceptible to the
disease studied. For instance, men should not be included in denominator for the carcinoma
of cervix.Part of population, which is susceptible to a disease is called the population at risk,
e.g., Occupational injuries occur only among working people so the population at risk is the
workforce.
(iii) Person – time: In some epidemiological studies (e.g. cohort studies), person may enter into
the study at different times. Consequently, they are under observation for varying time
period. In such case, the denominator is a combination of person and time. The most
frequently used person time is person- years. Some times this may be person months,
person weeks or man- hours. For example, if 10 persons were observed in the study for 10
years, person time would be 100 person years of observation. The same figure would be
derived if 100 persons were under observation for one year. These denominators have the
advantage of summarizing the experience of persons with different duration of observation
or exposure.
(iv) Sub groups of the population: the denominator may be subgroups of population e.g. under-
five, female, doctors, etc.
(II) Denominator related to total events: In some instances, the denominator may be
related to total events instead of the total population, as in the case of infant mortality
rate the denominator is total number of live births.
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(a) Mean: To obtain the mean the individual observations are added together, and then divided by
the number of observations.
(b) Mode: The mode is the most commonly occurring value in a distribution of data.
(c) Median: To obtain the median, the data is first arranged in a descending and ascending order
the value of middle observation is located, which is called median.
EXERCISE
Calculate mean, mode, and median for hemoglobin values of 20 pregnant women.
12, 10, 8, 9, 12, 10, 7, 9, 7, 10, 11, 8, 12, 7, 8, 13, 11, 9, 10, 11, 7
Mean:
Median:
Mode:
IV MEASURES OF DISPERSION
(a) Percentile: Sometime one has to locate other points in the range. This can be done with the
help of percentile. Just as the median divides the subjects in two equal groups each with nearly n/2
subjects, the percentiles divide the subjects in 100 equal parts. Each part is containing n/100
subjects. If n= 400, each part will have 4 subjects. The parts are identified by 99 cut points of the
measurements under consideration. Consider weight to nearest Kg. of 2 yr old 35 boys:
10, 12, 9, 11, 10, 12, 12, 13, 8, 9 13, 14, 13, 8, 9, 11, 11, 10, 12, 13, 9, 12, 10, 11, 14, 9, 12, 12, 13,
12, 9 13, 10, 11, 10,
For example 20ths percentile of weight is that value below which are 20% children, for n=35, then
20% of children mean 7 children. The procedure is to arrange their weights in ascending order and
pick up the seventh value. When arranged in ascending order, there weights in Kg. are:
8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 13, 12, 12, 12,
13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14
The seventh value is 9 kg. This is the 20 th percentile of weight of 2 yr old boys as far as these data
are concerned. Similarly we can find out given percentile by adopting the above procedure. It can
be determined by the formula [kth percentile = (k X n/100)].
(b) Deciles, Quartiles and Tertiles:
Deciles divide the group of subject in to 10 equal parts. Quartiles in to four equal parts and tertiles
into three equal parts. Tertiles are often used to divide the subjects into those with low, medium
and high values.
V MEASUREMENTS OF MORBIDITY
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Morbidity data should be accurately and completely collected and transformed into various rates to
make the understanding of magnitude of the health related event meaningful.
i. Incidence Rate (IR):
It is the number of new events that occurs in a defined time period in a geographical area. The
denominator is the population at risk for that event during that period. The most accurate way of
calculating incidence rate is person-time incidence rate. Each person in the study population
contributes one-person year to the denominator for each year of observations before disease
develops or the person is lost to follow-up.
The incidence rate takes into account the variable time periods during which individuals are disease
free and thus at risk of developing the disease. Since it may not be possible to measure disease free
periods precisely, the denominator is often calculated approximately by multiplying the average
size of the study population by the length of the study period. This is reasonably accurate if the size
of the population is stable and I.R. is low. For example, in a sub-center with population of 5000
there are 5 new cases of tuberculosis occurred during one year. For this disease the whole
population is at risk of tuberculosis, hence the incidence rate of tuberculosis would be 1 per 1000.
EXERCISE
In order to measure the quantum of sickness in children under 5 years of age , a astudy was
conducted among 153 children from May 2004 to April 2005 in Urban area . The five leading cause
of illness of number of person ill and spels of illness is as follows ;
Disease No of children ill No. of spell
Common cold 103 169
Diarrhea 62 132
Boils 60 73
Fever 37 42
Conjuctivities 31 37
Calculate
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i Incidence rate(person) for each of the leading cause?
ii Incidence rates (spells) for each of the leading cuses?
iii Spells of illness for each disease for each sick child?
Exercise 1 – During an eight hour work shift at a factory , 30 employee visited the company
physician with the complaints of nausea , vomiting headaches & dizziness.
Q.. If 600 hundred person worked in the factory what is the attack rate of the disease ?
Exercise 2
There was an out break of Typhoid Fever in Pondicherry . Few cases occurred in JIPMER campus
and some from various part of the town . Secondary cases with in 30 days of onset were also
reported .Data are given below -----
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Typhoid fever in household pondicherry secondary cases in houses with two types of sanitary
facilities .
Household with Privy & Well Houses with public water supply &
sever system
Age in No. of contact No. of Attack No. of No of Attack
years exposed to sec.cases contact sec.cases
rate rate
primary cases exposed to
primary
cases
0-4 173 41 143 9
5-14 196 37 216 10
15&above 245 24 361 14
Total 614 102 720 33
ii. Prevalence: The total number of all individuals who have an attribute or disease at a particular
time or during a particular period divided by the populations at risk of having the attribute or
disease at this point of time or midway through the period. Although referred as rate, prevalence
is really a ratio.
Types of Prevalence
a) Point Prevalence: The data have been collected for one point of time. The point in, point
prevalence may for all practical purposes consist of a day, several days or even a few weeks
depending upon the time taken to examine the population sample.
b) Period Prevalence: It measures the frequency of all current cases (Old & New) existing during a
defined period of time (e.g. annual prevalence) expressed in relation to a defined population. It
includes cases arising before but extending into or through the year as well as those cases arising
during the year.
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No. of existing cases (old & new) of a specified disease
During a given year (period of time interval)
Prevalence = -------------------------------------------------------------X1000
Estimated mid year (interval) population
iii. Relationship of Incidence with Prevalence
Prevalence depends upon two factors- the incidence and duration of illness
P=IXD
P= Incidence X mean Duration
Prevalence vs. Incidence
Exercise B
In June, 1995, at the end of their senior year, the following observations were made concerning
smoking in a population of 110 graduating seniors. The enrolment for this cohort from 9th to 12th
grade was as follows:
9th Sept. 1991 160
10th Sept. 1992 140
th
11 Sept. 1993 120
th
12 Sept. 1994 110
The seniors were asked the following question. “At any time while you were in high school (Sept. ‘91
-June ‘95), did you smoke at least one pack of cigarettes a week? If yes, when did you start and for
how long did you smoke?” Of the 110 graduating seniors surveyed, 20 reported having smoked at
some time during high school. The following table shows the data for these 20 students:
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Using the data above, answer the following questions:
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1. From Sept. 1993 - Aug. 31, 1994 what was the incidence rate of smoking?
2. What was the prevalence of smoking at the time of the survey in June, 1995?
3. The survey was given to the 110 graduating seniors. How valid are the results of the survey
as estimates of smoking incidence and prevalence for the high school age adolescents in this
community?
Prevalence vs. Incidence
Solution for Exercise B
1. Students #4, #9, and #16 begin smoking during this time, and ten other students were
already smoker sand therefore not at risk for becoming smokers, so the incidence rate is 3 /
(110-10) or 3.0 %.
2. Nine students were smoking at the time they graduated high school, for a prevalence rate of
9 / 110 or8.2 %.
3. If smoking behaviour among graduating seniors is the same as that for students who
dropped out, then the results are good estimates. If smoking status is related to drop out status,
then the results may be over or underestimates depending on whether those who finish high
school are more or less likely to smoke than those who do not.
When the same 500 children are screened again in the Fall of 1996, 65 are found to have vision
problems.
1. What was the prevalence of vision problems in County Y’s Head Start program in 1995?
2. What was the prevalence of vision problems in County Y’s Head Start program in 1996?
3. What is the risk of developing vision problems between the Fall of 1995 and the Fall of 1996 in
this group of Head Start children?
Exercise D
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The Hospital X Emergency Room in Community A recorded 120 asthma cases during 1995 out of a
total of 1450 individual children seen. The state Children with Special Health Care Needs (CSHCN)
program was interested in determining if these numbers meant an increased risk of a child
developing asthma in Community A or a possible decrease in the effectiveness of the medication
taken by asthmatic children in Community A. In 1996 they asked the hospital to track the number of
first time asthma diagnoses admitted to the ER versus those asthma cases who visited the ER but
had been previously diagnosed as having asthma.
In 1996 out of 1370 children seen in the ER, there were 130 asthma cases: 42 were new cases, 88
had been previously diagnosed prior to the ER visit.
1. What was the risk of having asthma in 1995 for children in Community A seeking ER care at
Hospital X?
2. What was the prevalence of childhood asthma in 1995 in the ER at Hospital X in Community
A?
3. What was the prevalence of childhood asthma in 1996 in the ER at Hospital X in Community
A?
2. 120/1450 = 8.3%
3. 130/1370 = 9.5%
4. No, these two prevalence estimates do not provide any information about the risk of
developing asthma among children in Community A.
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5. Knowing the incidence rate helps somewhat but does not tell the entire story as children
seeking care for their asthma in the ER are not representative of the entire population of
children with asthma in Community A. Incidence rate: 42/1282 =3.3%
6. It would be helpful to have baseline information on the incidence rate of childhood asthma
diagnoses in the ER at Hospital X in Community A. Short of obtaining information from
population based child health surveys over time, it would also be important to obtain data
from primary care physicians in the community, other community hospitals, from the
schools, and possibly from the pharmacists in the community. In addition, it might be
helpful to compare Community A's data to data from similar communities
Example: If incidence is 10 cases / 1000 people per year and mean duration of disease is 5 years,
then
Prevalence = 10 X 5 = 50 / 1000 population.
EXERCISE:
In a population of 1000, following are the details of cases of tuberculosis. Calculate incidence, point
prevalence (as on 1st July) and period prevalence for 2001 and comment on it.
Case No Detected on Died / Cured on
1 Jan 12, 1999 March 13, 2001
2 Feb 13, 1999 Dec 18, 2000
3 April 29, 1999 Not cured upto 31 Dec 2003
4 Oct 23 1999 Sept 23, 2002
5 Feb 12, 2000 Oct 30, 2001
6 April 1, 2000 Sept 21, 2001
7 June 23, 2000 April 1, 2002
8 Feb 24, 2001 May 23, 2002
9 July 11, 2001 July 12, 2003
10 Aug 15, 2001 April 11, 2002
11 Sept 23, 2001 May 9, 2003
12 Nov 21, 2001 Not cured upto 31 Dec 2003
13 April 12, 2002 July 12, 2003
14 June 13, 2002 Sept 23, 2003
15 Oct 3, 2002 Not cured upto 31 Dec 2003
16 Dec 12, 2002 Dec 23, 2003
17 Dec 16, 2002 Sept 1, 2003
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18 Feb 12, 2003 Not cured upto 31 Dec 2003
19 Sept 1, 2003 Not cured upto 31 Dec 2003
20 Oct 11, 2003 Not cured upto 31 Dec 2003
VI MEASUREMENTS OF MORTALITY
It is defined as “the number of deaths (from all causes) per 1000 estimated mid year population in
one year, in a defined geographical area.
ii Specific Death Rates: can be specific to age, sex, occupation, diseases, etc.
Example: In a village with population of 5000 there are 5 deaths due to tuberculosis occurred in a
year. Death rate due to tuberculosis would be 1 per 1000.
Child Mortality
Still Birth Ratio: Defined as “ Death of foetuses weighing 1000 gm (this is equivalent to 28 weeks of
gestations) or more occurring during one year in every 1000 live births.
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Still Birth Rate: Still Birth Rate is defined as number of deaths of foetuses weighing 1000gm or
more occurring during 1 year per 1000 total births (live + still births).
Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR): NMR is defined as the number of neonatal deaths under 28 days
of age in a given year per 1000 live births in that year
NMR=------------------------------------------------------------------- x1000
Post-neonatal Mortality Rate: It is defined as the ratio of post neonatal deaths (28 days to under
one year) in a given year to the total number of live births in the same year, usually expressed as a
rate per 1000.
Exercise:
Adjusted (Standardized) Rate: If we want to compare the death rate of two populations with
different age composition, the crude death rate is not the right yardstick. This is because rates are
only comparable if the populations upon which they are based are comparable. And it is
cumbersome to use a series of age specific death rates. The answer is “age adjustment” or “age
standardization”, which removes the confounding effect of different age structure and yields a
single standardized or adjusted rate, by which the mortality experience can be compared directly.
The adjustment can be made not only for age but also for sex, race, parity, etc. a exercise is needed
to understand this concept with explaining both direct and indirect methods
VII MEASUREMENTS OF FERTILITY
i Crude Birth Rate: Defined as the number of live births per 1000 estimated mid year population
in a given year.
No of live births during the year
Birth Rate = ---------------------------------------X 1000
Estimated mid year population
ii Total Fertility Rate (TFR): It represents the average number of children a woman would have if
she were to pass through her reproductive years (15-45 years) bearing children at the same
rates as the woman now in each age group. It is computed by summing the age specific rates
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for all ages. If 5 years age groups (intervals) are used, the sum of the rates is multiplied by 5.
This measure gives the approximate magnitude of completed family size. In India TFR in the
year 2003 is estimated to be 2.8, i.e., on an average one woman gives 2.8 live births during her
reproductive period.
Example: Computation of the specific fertility rate and total fertility rate from the data given below:
Age group (Years) No. of women No. of live births
(A) (B)
15-19 25000 800
20-24 20000 2400
25-29 19000 2000
30-34 16000 1500
35-39 14000 120
40-44 6000 10
Total 100000 6830
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35-39 08.57x5=42.85 1797.90
40-44 01.67x5=8.35 1806.25
= 1.8
iii Net Reproduction Rate (NRR): NRR is defined as the number of daughters a new born girl will
bear during her life time assuming fixed age specific fertility and mortality rate. NRR is a
demographic indicator. NRR of 1 is equivalent to attaining approximately the 2-child norm. If
the NRR is less than 1 then the reproductive performance of the population is said to be below
replacement level.
The Demographers are of the view that the goal of NRR 1 can be achieved only if effective couple
protection rate is above 60%.
Example:
Age group Female Female Specific Survival rate S.F.R. x S
population births fertility rate (S)
per women
(S.F.R.)
15-19 1600000 19000 0.0119 0.921 0.0110
20-24 10,00000 70200 0.0702 0.901 0.0633
25-29 16,8500 90600 0.0538 0.885 0.0476
30-34 17,30000 62400 0.0361 0.862 0.0311
35-39 1,72000 32500 0.0188 0.850 0.0160
40-44 16,20000 11000 0.0068 0.832 0.0057
Total 0.1747
The sequence of events leading to disability and handicap has been stated as follows:
Disease – Impairment – Disability – Handicap
Impairment: Any loss or abnormality of psychological, physiological or anatomical structure or
function, e.g. loss of foot, defective vision or mental retardation.
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Disability: Any restriction or lack of ability to perform an activity in the manner or within the range
considered normal for a human being. Disability may be physical, mental and social.
Handicap: A disadvantage for a given individual resulting from impairment or a disability that limits
or prevents the fulfillment of a role that is normal (depending on age, sex and social and cultural
factors) for that individual.
Illustration
Poliomyelitis - Disease
Paralysis of limb - Impairment.
Inability to walk -Disability
Unemployment - Handicap
Types
(A) Physical, (B) Mental, (C) Social
A. Physical disability: e.g., blindness, lameness, deafness, etc.
B. Mental disability: e.g. psychosis, mental retardation,
C. Social disability: orphan, destitute, etc.
Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs): It measures the healthy life years lost because of premature
mortality. Calculated as difference between actual age at death and life expectancy at that age and
disability resulted from diseases. For calculating DALYs criteria considered are mobility, anxiety or
depression, self care, pain, cognitive function and carrying out normal activity.
There is huge variation in per person loss of DALYs across regions mainly because of differences
in premature mortality. Regional differences in loss of DALYs as a result of disability are much
smaller. About 1.36 billion DALYs were lost in 1990, which is equivalent to 42 million deaths of
newborn or 80 million deaths at the age of 50. Premature deaths were responsible for 66% of all
DALYs lost and disabilities for 34%. In India 50.5% DALYs were lost because of communicable
diseases (TB, STD & HIV, Diarrhoea, VPDs, Malaria, worm infestation, respiratory infections,
maternal causes, perinatal causes etc.) and 40.4% due to non-communicable diseases (Cancers,
nutritional deficiencies, psychiatric diseases, cerebrum-vascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases,
etc. ) and 9.1% due to injuries (Motor vehicle, intentional and others).
After knowing the practical implication of basic principles of epidemiology we have to move
on the other very important aspect of data management . For this we need to know the basic of
data as –
25
PRACTICE QUESTIONS
1. To evaluate the performance of a new diagnostic test, the developer checks it out on 100 known cases of
the disease for which the test was designed, and on 200 controls known to be free of the disease. Ninety of
the cases yield positive tests, as do 30 of the controls. Based on these data, the specificity and false positive
error rates of the test are, respectively,
a. 75% and 10%
b. 85% and 10%
c. 85% and 15%
d. 85% and 25%
e. 90% and 15%
Based on all the information currently available, you estimate that the patient in your office has a one in four
chance of having a serious disease. You order a diagnostic test with sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 90%.
2. The result comes back positive. Based on all the information now available, the chance your patient really
has the disease is closest to
a. 100%
b. 95%
c. 90%
d. 75%
e. 60%
f. roughly 30%
3. The result comes back negative. Based on all the information now available, the negative predictive value
is closest to
a. 1%
b. 2%
c. 5%
d. 10%
e. 15%
f. 25%
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4. Test A has 70% sensitivity and 90% specificity. Test B has 90% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Assuming that
responses to Tests A and B are statistically independent, and assuming pre-test probability of disease of 50%,
determine the sensitivity and specificity, as well as the positive and negative predictive values, of
a. using Test A and Test B in parallel.
b. using Test A and Test B in series, Test A first.
c. using Test A and Test B in series, Test B first.
5. A test with 99.9% sensitivity and 99% specificity is used to screen a population for a disease with 1%
prevalence. The proportion of test positives in the screen who actually have the disease will be roughly
a. 10%
b. 30%
c. 50%
d. 90%
e. 99%
f. 99.9%
6. The American Disease X Foundation reports that 6% of the population over 50 years of age has Disease X.
You inquire as to the source of their information, and they cite disease population screening data in the
literature which reports that 6% of that population was positive when screened. Referring to the literature,
you discover that the screening test used had sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 98%. What proportion of
the population over 50 years of age do you think really has the disease?
7. Three tests exist that might be used in screening a population for Disease D, which you believe is present
in about 1% of the population. Test A has sensitivity of 99% and specificity of 99.9%. Test B has sensitivity of
95% and specificity of 99%. Test C has sensitivity of 99.9% and specificity of 98%. Using the percentage of
test positives to estimate the population prevalence of the disease would most help you support the
corresponding institutional position, if you were
a. CEO of the American Disease D Foundation
b. Newt Gingrich
c. Director of the UI's Institute for Truth in Medicine
8. In an article in the Archives of Your Specialty, researchers report that screening Test T is enormously
effective, and should be used routinely. As evidence, they report that the five-year survival rate of patients
whose disease was discovered by screening with Test T is 90%, whereas the five-year survival rate of patients
whose disease was discovered by other means is only 60%. However, in an article that same month in the
Journal of the College of Your Specialty, another group of researchers report that screening with Test T has
no effect. As evidence, they report that a study which randomized subjects to a program of routine screening
with Test T or to no special screening regimen found an 80% five-year survival rate in both groups. The issue
27
seems even more confusing because this second group of investigators acknowledges that if their data are
reanalysed to compare the survival rate of subjects who actually followed the screening regimen to those
who did not, whatever group they were assigned to, the cohort of those who actually were screened had five
year survival of 85% whereas the cohort of those who were not had survival of only 75%. Despite this, these
investigators maintain the position that no effect of screening has been demonstrated. Write a brief note for
the General Practitioner's Quick Office Practice Digest, explaining why these various sets of results might be
expected to in the way they do and advising whether or not to screen with Test T.
9. An article in The New York Times last year, in connection with the prostate cancer treatment of Buffalo
Bills head football coach Marv Levy and Washington, D.C. mayor Marion Barry, pointed out that annual
prostate cancer diagnoses have almost doubled since 1990, and that most experts attribute this to increased
detection of existing cancer via the prostatic specific antigen (PSA) test. The Times article suggested that
early detection via the PSA test was leading to early and inevitably more successful treatment of prostate
cancer, with a cure rate in the 80-90% range for men with early diagnosis. The Times gave no specific data
pertaining to the beneficial effect of the increase in early diagnosis produced by use of the PSA.
Among the data that might be used to support claims that use of the PSA is improving the health outcomes
of prostate cancer victims are
a. the sensitivity and specificity of the PSA test;
b. the positive and negative predictive values of the PSA test in the specific population of interest;
c. the overall five-year post-dx survival rate (sometimes called the "cure rate" in cancer studies);
d. the difference in such rates between men diagnosed by PSA tests as compared to those diagnosed by
other means;
e. the difference in such rates between men who've previously had one or more PSA tests as compared to
those who've not, whatever the method of diagnosis;
f. the mean overall post-dx survival;
g. the difference in these means between men who've been diagnosed by PSA tests as compared to those
diagnosed by other methods;
h. the difference in these means between men who've previously had one or more PSA tests as compared to
those who've not;
i. the age-adjusted mortality rate for prostate cancer;
j. the difference in rates of diagnosis between men randomly assigned to receive periodic PSA screening and
men randomly assigned to periodic digital rectal examination;
k. the difference in five year post-dx survival rates between men randomly assigned to receive periodic PSA
screening and men randomly assigned to periodic digital rectal examination;
l. the difference in age-adjusted mortality rates for prostate cancer between men randomly assigned to
receive periodic PSA screening and men randomly assigned to periodic digital rectal examination.
With reference as appropriate to particular biases, explain why each of the above types of data does or does
not provide reliable information on the impact of PSA on the health of men with prostatic cancer.
10. Which of the following is not conducive to success of a medical screening program?
a. high incidence
b. long duration of in apparent disease
28
c. excellent therapeutic results at all stages
d. screening inexpensive
e. high specificity of the test
11.To avoid being misled by stage-migration bias in comparing outcomes over different periods of time
between which diagnostic acuity has changed, we should
a. compare stage-specific outcome measures
b. compare directly stage-adjusted outcome measures
c. evaluate outcomes in the later period using the SMR based on reference outcome rates from the earlier
period
d. compare outcome measures combining and unadjusted for disease stage
ANSWERS
1.c
2.d
3.f
5.c
6. 4.3%
7. a)c
b)a
c)a
8. In the first study there was lead time bias, length/time bias, and compliance bias. In the second study,
when they origionally did the randomized clinical trial those biases were gone due to randomization, but
when they (non-randomly) re-grouped within the randomized groups the biases came back. The screening
therefore does not seem to help.
9. l
29
10.c
11.d
Source:https://www.med.illinois.edu/m2/epidemiology/ReviewQuestions/SensitivitySpecificity_Qu
estions.htm
EXERCISE
After a New Years Day breakfast of the 22 members (of whom 12 are women) of the Town Council at
Restaurant X, a number of the attendees became ill with fever, nausea, vomiting, headaches,
abdominal cramps, and diarrhea. Some developed jaundice, and complained of dark colored urine.
After interviews with 15 council members, the following line listing was created.
Foods Eaten
ILLNESS Eggs & Pan Cup
ID AGE SEX ILL Coffee Milk
ONSET Bacon Cakes Cakes
1 38 M Y 1/23 N N N Y Y
2 35 M Y 1/24 Y Y N Y ?
4 35 F Y 1/26 N Y Y Y Y
7 68 F Y 2/2 Y Y Y Y N
8 58 M Y 2/2 Y Y Y N Y
9 53 M Y 2/4 N Y Y N Y
11 57 M Y 2/6 N Y N Y Y
12 59 F Y 2/7 N Y Y N Y
14 33 F N Y Y Y Y N
3 41 M N N Y N N N
5 43 F N Y N ? Y Y
6 61 M N N Y Y Y ?
10 38 F N N Y Y Y N
13 62 F N Y Y Y N ?
15 29 M N ? Y Y Y N
30
frequency of illness relative to the endemic level
number of people involved
severity of illness
whether the illness was infectious
2. The best estimate of the attack rate per hundred for women is
14 (3/22*100)
32 (7/22*100)
25 (3/12*100)
38 (3/8*100)
67 (8/12*100)
Two food items are often eaten together (for example, bread and butter) and one item is
contaminated with an agent that causes illness and the other is not.
4. After the determination of attack rates for individuals who consumed and did not consume
each item:
the contaminated item will show a high relative risk but the uncontaminated one will not.
the uncontaminated item will show a high relative risk but the contaminated one will not.
both items will show high relative risks.
neither item will show a high relative risk.
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Attack rates were determined for the following four groups of individuals:
Group A - consumed item 1 and item 2
Group B - consumed item 1 but not item 2
Group C - consumed item 2 but not item 1
Group D - consumed neither item 1 nor item 2
8. An age-adjusted mortality rate for a given population will be lower than the crude mortality
rate when that population has
a good health care system.
more efficient methods for handling death certificates.
more elderly people than the standard population.
less elderly people than the standard population.
9. The case fatality rate for a disease could be high for all of the following reasons except
no efficacious treatment for the disease has been discovered.
methods for preventing the disease have not been developed.
detection of the disease is difficult during the stage when it is treatable.
the disease moves rapidly to a highly lethal stage.
10. The cause-specific mortality rate for a disease will be high when
the prevalence rate and the case fatality rate are both high
the prevalence rate is high but the case fatality rate is low
the prevalence rate is low but the case fatality rate is high
32
the prevalence rate and the case fatality rate are both low
11. Public health initiatives are concerned with disease prevention and treatment.
A public health program which is effective in reducing the probability of acquiring a certain
disease for all members of the population should
decrease both the incidence rate and the prevalence rate of the disease.
decrease the incidence rate but increase the prevalence rate of the disease.
not change the incidence rate but decrease the prevalence rate of the disease.
not change the incidence rate but increase the prevalence rate of the disease.
not change either the incidence rate or the prevalence rate of the disease.
12. A public health program which effectively provides treatment that prolongs the lives of those
in the population with a certain disease should
decrease both the incidence rate and the prevalence rate of the disease.
decrease the incidence rate but increase the prevalence rate of the disease.
not change the incidence rate but decrease the prevalence rate of the disease.
not change the incidence rate but increase the prevalence rate of the disease.
not change either the incidence rate or the prevalence rate of the disease.
The incidence of a certain disease is 6 per 100,000 per year for factory workers exposed to lead dust
and 2 per 100,000 per year for similar workers not exposed to lead dust.
13. The relative risk of this disease for those with lead dust exposure is
0.33
2
3
4
6
14. According to the attributable risk, the number of cases of the disease which could be
prevented per year for every 100, 000 workers with lead dust exposure is
0.33
2
3
4
33
6
15. In the investigation of a sudden outbreak of food born disease, potential sources can be
identified by the discovery of items with:
high relative risks
high attributable risks
either of the above
neither of the above
EXERCISE 2
Elderly men with hip fractures were followed to determine the time needed after surgery for them
to recover their pre-fracture walking ability. The recovery times had a mode of 9 months, a median
of 11.5 months, and a mean of 15.2 months.
34
3. The standard deviation for the recovery time was 8.3 months. The interval given by the mean
plus or minus two standard deviations cannot be used to establish normal limits for recovery
time because
the normal curve is not a good model for this distribution.
the standard deviation is too large.
the standard deviation is too small.
the standard error is needed instead of the standard deviation.
Sixty percent of patients with pulmonary dysfunction are smokers and 80% of individuals with
normal pulmonary function are non-smokers. The prevalence of pulmonary dysfunction in the
population is 30%.
5. What is the proportion of the total population who are non-smokers with pulmonary
disfunction?
0.12
0.32
0.56
0.60
0.80
35
The performance measures of a screening test can always be interpreted as probabilities.
Four screening test are being considered for early detection of Disease X. The sensitivity and
specificity of each test is shown below:
Test Sensitivity Specificity
Blood Test 80% 70%
Physical exam 60% 90%
Ultrasound 90% 60%
Urinalysis 70% 90%
36
11. Of these four tests, which will fail to detect the most cases of disease X in a screened
population?
Blood test
Physical exam
Ultrasound
Urinalysis
One thousand people (500 who have colon cancer and 500 who do not have colon cancer) receive a
fecal occult blood test (FOBT). The results are shown in the table below:
12. Based on these data, we can conclude that the specificity of FOBT as a screening test for the
detection of colon cancer is closest to
20%
40%
60%
80%
The mean cholesterol level for a sample of cases of women with hypertension during pregnancy was
found to be 212 mg%. The lower 95% confidence limit on the population mean was determined as
192 mg%.
37
232 mg%
242 mg%
15. If the mean cholesterol for normotensive pregnant women was 200 mg%, it would be safe to
conclude that women with prenatal hypertension have cholesterol levels that are
lower than expected.
higher than expected.
exactly as expected.
perhaps higher or lower than expected.
Volunteers who smoked ten or more cigarettes per day were randomly assigned to use either a
nicotine or a placebo inhaler. The subjects were blind to the identity of their treatment. Of the 145
subjects assigned to the nicotine group, 22 eventually quit smoking. There were 7 who quit smoking
among the 141 subjects assigned to the placebo group.
16. The relative risk for quitting, associated with the use of the nicotine inhaler, is
0.32
3.06
3.42
30.6
34.2
17. Based on a test of the null hypothesis that the quit rates are identical in the two groups,
P<0.001, the best interpretation is that
the P-value shows that the difference in quit rates is not clinically significant
a statistically significant difference in quit rates was attained.
the difference in quit rates could easily be explained by chance alone.
less than one in a thousand trials of this kind will result in a difference as large as that
found.
18. In a subsequent trial, similar subjects were randomized to either a nicotine inhaler or a
nicotine patch. A quit rate of 18.1% was attained in the former group and one of 21.6% in the
latter, P>0.10. Therefore,
the P-value shows that the difference in quit rates is not clinically significant .
a statistically significant difference in quit rates was attained.
the difference in quit rates could easily be explained by chance alone.
38
more than one in a ten trials of this kind will result in a difference as large as that found.
The postnatal weight gain (Y) in pounds over a specified period of time was related to varied
amounts of a formula supplement (X), in unit doses, taken during the same period for a sample of 70
infants. The following results were obtained:
Regression equation: Y = 1.0 + 0.8 X
Correlation coefficient: r = .64, P<0.05
20. If the weight gain was expressed in grams rather than pounds,
the slope would increase and the correlation coefficient would remain the same.
the slope would decrease and the correlation coefficient would remain the same.
the slope would remain the same and the correlation coefficient would increase.
the slope would remain the same and the correlation coefficient would decrease.
the slope would remain the same and the correlation coefficient would remain the same.
Plasma serum levels of betacarotene (Y) in mg/dl were related to body mass index (X1) and cigarette
smoking (X2) for a sample of 200 volunteers with a multiple regression equation. The independent
variable X2 took a value of 1 if the volunteer was a current smoker and 0 otherwise. The following
results were reported:
Regression equation: Y = 3.1 - 0.10 X1 - 1.0 X2
Coefficient of determination: R2 = .30
21. Tests of the null hypothesis of zero slope gave P-values less than .05 for both independent
variables. Thus a smoker with a body mass index of 20 as compared to a non-smoker with a
body mass index of 30 is expected to have a beta carotene level which is
2 mg/dl lower.
1 mg/dl lower.
39
the same.
1 mg/dl higher.
2 mg/dl higher.
22. In using the regression analysis given in the previous problem to estimate the effect of
cigarette smoking on levels of betacarotene (i.e. mean levels) we must assume
100% of the variance in betacarotene is accounted for by body mass index and smoking.
the effect of smoking is constant over all levels of body mass index.
all individuals in the population will have the same body mass index.
about half of the population will be current cigarette smokers.
all of the above.
40
SECTION – B
Surveillance-
Methods, use and example
41
SURVEILLANCE
Learning Objectives
At the end of the session, participants will be able to:
List the various VPDs and their standard case definitions.
Define surveillance and list its uses.
Explain the steps in conducting VPD surveillance and outbreak investigation
Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases
Each individual case of VPD needs to be recorded and reported upwards within a comprehensive
VPD surveillance system. The following section provides an overview of the components of VPD
surveillance.
Definition of Surveillance
Surveillance is data collection for action. It is defined as the ongoing and systematic collection,
analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of data about cases of a disease and factors influencing
disease behavior, which is used as a basis for planning, implementing and evaluating disease
prevention and control activities, including immunization.
Key elements of a Surveillance system
ƒ detection and notification of VPDs
ƒ investigation and confirmation (epidemiological, clinical, laboratory) of VPDs
ƒ collection, analysis and interpretation of data
ƒ feedback and dissemination of results
ƒ prevention and control responses
Uses of Surveillance
Disease surveillance enables the following:
Predicting or detecting disease outbreaks for containment (What disease is occurring)
Identifying high-risk populations (Who gets the disease)
Identifying areas requiring special attention and where system performance is poor (Where the
disease is occurring)
Determining the frequency of occurrence of a disease in the community and magnitude of the
problem (When the disease is occurring and how many get the disease)
Identifying underlying causes (or risk factors) of the disease (Why the disease is occurring)
Guiding response activities, including immunization (How the disease can be prevented, controlled
or eliminated).
42
ƒ Recording and reporting system (to ensure regularity in reporting)
ƒ List of all the reporting units (to ensure completeness in reporting)
The quality of surveillance data depends upon correct diagnostic criteria, timeliness and
completeness of reports.
STEPS IN CONDUCTING SURVEILLANCE
The five steps in surveillance, carried out at various levels (sub-center upwards), include:
Active Surveillance: implies the collection of data on specific VPDs, through the review of records
during regular visits to selected health facilities, reporting sites or the
community. This method is used
ƒ During outbreaks to determine the extent of the outbreak and keep mortality rates low by initiating
early treatment.
ƒ When a disease is targeted for eradication or elimination (e.g. polio eradication) every possible case
must be found and investigated.
Active Surveillance does not replace passive surveillance, but if conducted regularly and frequently
it has the following advantages over passive surveillance, as it:
ƒ helps to improve the timeliness and accuracy of case detection and notification
ƒ enables rapid case investigation, including collection of laboratory specimens
ƒ helps to link cases epidemiologically.
ƒ enables timely action to be taken in response to the detected case
ƒ identifies areas where passive surveillance needs to be strengthened.
Sentinel Surveillance: Data is collected through reports from selected 'sentinel' sites, to understand
the disease burden, monitor trends and detect outbreaks. This system is used when high-quality
data are needed about a particular disease that cannot be obtained through a passive system e.g. in
43
AFP surveillance. The sentinel site is usually a hospital, health center, laboratory, rehabilitation
center or other facility which attends to a relatively large number of cases of the disease.
Follow these rules when reporting the total number of cases and deaths seen during a reporting
period (month or week):
ƒ Zero reporting: Submit nil reports even if there are no VPD cases seen.
ƒ Avoid double counting: if a child makes two visits to the health center for the same disease
episode count it as one case only.
ƒ Count only those cases which have been diagnosed by the health personnel.
ƒ Count current cases only: Include only those cases that occurred within the time frame specified
for the VPD.
Report the occurrence of any unusual clustering of VPD cases or any death immediately by
telephone, fax, email, special messenger etc. This verbal report must be followed by a written
case based report.
Compile the data to describe the VPDs in terms of time, place and person. This can be done by
tabulation or drawing of graphs, bar charts or maps. Table 10.1 describes the immunization status
44
of measles cases (among infants older than 9 months of age) regarding a Measles outbreak in five
SCs in a PHC.
If the cases are approaching the threshold level or have crossed it, then suspect an outbreak.
Analyze the reports for surveillance quality as follows:
1) Completeness of reporting
The number of reports received divided by the number of reports expected, expressed as a
percentage. If the completeness of reports was only 50%, then the disease incidence would be
under-reported by 50%.
2) Timeliness of reporting
45
The number of reports received on time divided by the number of reports expected expressed as a
percentage. The definition of 'on time' must be clear to reporting units.
3) Description by time, place and person (when, where and who gets the disease?)
When the disease is occurring?
Compare the number of cases and deaths with previous weeks/ months/ years to see if there are
any seasonal or cyclic trends. Table, bar or line diagrams are tools that enable analysis across time
(temporal). These tools will help you to understand any increase or decrease in the incidence of a
disease or the number of deaths for a particular reporting unit (as compared to other reporting
units). Figure 10.1 shows yearly trend of measles cases and deaths in a tabular and graphic form.
The above data could be interpreted in the following manner. The increasing number of cases from
1999 onwards indicates a potential outbreak, improved reporting or a change in the detection and
reporting protocols. The decreasing number of cases from 2002 onwards indicates improved
control measures, under-reporting due to incomplete reports or change in the detection and
reporting protocols. The plateau in the graph from 2006 onwards indicates either a stable situation
or under reporting because of incomplete reports.
Where the disease is occurring?
Diseases tend to cluster in a particular area. Clustering indicates that a large number of similar
cases have occurred in a limited geographical area or have occurred around the index case. This
provides an idea of the causative and predisposing factors that may have played a role in the
occurrence of the VPD. See Figure 10.2.
46
A Spot map is a tool that enables analysis across space (spatial). It shows the occurrence of the
cases, high-risk areas, areas of poor immunization coverage or areas with vacancies of HWs.
A Spot map helps to identify:
ƒ Pockets from where cases are consistently reported
ƒ Pockets from where cases are expected but not reported
ƒ Disease trends in comparison to similar maps for the previous corresponding period.
47
Step 5: Provide Feedback
Feedback to the reporting sites refers to:
ƒ Commenting on the completeness, timeliness and accuracy of the surveillance reports;
ƒ Informing about the effectiveness of the vaccination activities in meeting the objectives of disease
reduction;
ƒ Offering information to help them in solving problems;
ƒ Congratulating the good performers and encouraging them to do a better job.
Feedback is essential to keep the staff motivated to achieve high levels of immunization coverage
and to collect accurate and complete data on the occurrence of target diseases. It may be urgent
for an outbreak or individual cases or specific e.g. the laboratory results of each AFP case. Feedback
to the community helps increase community trust and involvement. It must be shared during
monthly meetings as well as during visits to the reporting units.
SECTION – C
48
OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
49
ƒ control and limit its spread to other areas
ƒ ascertain its etiology and understand why it occurred
ƒ identify high risk areas and groups
ƒ assess how prevention strategies can be strengthened to reduce or eliminate the risk of future
outbreaks
The team that has been formed at district level should hold a meeting as soon as a suspected
outbreak is identified. It should decide on the area to be surveyed, plan and guide the outbreak
investigation, monitor progress in data collection, compile and analyze data and write a final report.
Actions DURING an outbreak
STEP 1: CONFIRM THE OUTBREAK
Confirmation of an outbreak is done through two related steps. Firstly, you have to visit the area
concerned and confirm the diagnosis of as many reported cases as possible. Next, you should
ascertain its geographical spread through a preliminary search.
Confirm the diagnosis by:
Clinical criteria: according to the standard case definition using information obtained by history and
examination
Epidemiological association: If an outbreak has been confirmed and similar cases in the same area
in the same period of time are reported by health workers, but not investigated individually, they
may be confirmed by epidemiologically linked association with confirmed cases.
Laboratory tests: For VPDs subject to eradication or elimination, collect laboratory specimens from
every suspect case (e.g. stool sample from each AFP case). For VPDs subject to control, collect
specimens from a sufficient number of cases (e.g. five blood samples in case of a measles outbreak)
to confirm the outbreak. However, no laboratory specimens are required for neonatal tetanus.
Ascertain the geographical extent of the outbreak to the surrounding villages/ blocks. The search
for additional cases must include visits to:
The health facilities: Talk to the doctors and nurses to see if they are seeing suspected cases of the
VPD. Visit hospital wards and outpatient departments and search all patient registers for cases that
fit the standard case definition.
50
The community: Visit the area from where cases have been seen in the health facilities. Talk to
volunteers and other influential persons in the community. If feasible, organize a rapid house-to-
house search of the affected area(s) tosearch for similar cases. Identify key informants in each
village / ward for prompt information about any cases.
STEP 2: CONDUCT HOUSE-TO-HOUSE SEARCHES TO FIND ADDITIONAL CASES AND PROVIDE CASE
MANAGEMENT
Train and assign health workers to conduct house-to-house searches to find the cases in the
designated area. The logic is to list all the cases of VPD that have occurred in the recent past.
Investigate cases using one disease-specific 'Standard Case Investigation Form' (CIF) for each case.
Record the full details, including identification data, address, vaccination status and the travel
history. (See Appendix 10.2)
Provide standard case management/treatment to the cases. Trace contacts to establish chains of
transmission for containment measures such as Outbreak Response Immunization (ORI) in
Measles, Polio, etc. If a new case or outbreak has been detected, search for additional cases of the
VPD. For example, for a suspect measles or diphtheria case, enquire whether there are any other
contacts (in the specific age group) in the household or neighborhood. Provide need-based
prophylaxis and/or immunization to the contacts (e.g. vitamin A for measles, vaccination for
diphtheria). Health workers should notify the cases with complications to the supervisor for further
referral.
During the course of investigation, it may be possible that some other areas (not included in initial
planning) may report fresh cases of the VPD. Arrange to undertake case searches in these new
areas as well.
TRACE ELEMENT: A contact is a person who has been in close association with a known or
suspected case of a communicable disease during the incubation period.
Report the cases immediately to the ERT in both the CIF and the line list consolidating data acquired
from all the CIFs.
51
EXERCISE: Plan a visit to a community and the nearest health centre and see different form
available there. See the line listing register.
What is the difference between line listing and case finding? See the forms given in appendix
used in IDSP.
STEP 4: DESCRIBE THE OUTBREAK
Describe the outbreak in terms of time, place and person.
Time: What are the dates of onset of cases?
Plot these to prepare an Epidemic curve i.e. a graph showing cases by date of onset or by date of
report (See Figure 10.4). It helps to demonstrate where and how an outbreak began, how quickly
the disease is spreading, the stage of the outbreak (start, middle or ending phase), and whether
control efforts are having an impact.
52
ƒ suffered complications or
ƒ died (Case Fatality Rate)
ƒ Measure the effectiveness of vaccination
ƒ How many confirmed cases occurred in vaccinated individuals and in unvaccinated
individuals?
ƒ How effective was the vaccine at preventing infection (Vaccine Efficacy)
Case-Fatality Rate (CFR) is based on the case investigations and the total number of confirmed cases. If
possible, estimate it by age-group.
CFR = No. of patients who died of a specific VPD/Total No. of cases of the same VPD X 100
Vaccine efficacy (VE) is the ability of the vaccine to prevent disease effectively and is affected by the age at
immunization, potency of the vaccine (quality of cold chain) and overall immunization coverage.
VE = (Attack Rate among unvaccinated (ARU) -Attack Rate among Vaccinated (ARV)
(Attack Rate among unvaccinated (ARU)
Attack Rate is an incidence rate (usually expressed as a percent), used only when the
population is exposed to a VPD for a limited period of time, such as during an outbreak. It is
calculated as follows:
AR= Number of new cases of a VPD during a specified time interval X 100
Total population at risk during the same interval
EXERCISE:
Plan a visit to the district health office and medical record section. Interview the DHO and MRD in
charge regarding the criteria of confirming the epidemic?
53
ƒ Short review of the VPD outbreaks in the past
ƒ VPD reporting and surveillance system
ƒ Confirmation of outbreak by serology (lab reports)
ƒ Data collection methodology (sample size, number of investigating teams, approach etc.)
ƒ Data analysis
ƒ Time, place and person analysis of cases (charts, graphs, spot maps etc.)
ƒ Age distribution and vaccination status analysis
ƒ Analysis of Case Fatality Rate
ƒ Probable reasons of outbreak
ƒ Population at risk
ƒ Case management
ƒ Response to outbreak
ƒ Conclusions and recommendations
Send the outbreak investigation report to concerned district and state government officers (See
Appendix 10.3).
STEP 8: GIVE FEEDBACK
Provide feedback to all levels (Community/ SC/PHC/CHC/District) on the outcomes of the VPD
outbreak investigation, in order to ensure that all stakeholders are aware of the reasons for the
outbreak, the actions initiated and the plan to prevent future outbreaks.
CASE: Follow-up should be according to specific guidelines e.g. re-visit AFP cases
after 60 days of Reporting
54
55
56
57
58
Suggestions for Classroom Use
At a minimum, before beginning a case study, students will need to know the basic scientific steps
for investigating an outbreak. We recommend that teachers prepare for presenting an exercise by
reading the case study section by section and attempting to answer the questions before reviewing
the answer key. Here are some classroom approaches that have worked well:
Divide the class into small work groups of five to ten students. Ask each group to assign a facilitator, a recorder,
and a reporter.
Hand out Part I and call on individual students from the class at large to read the narrative and questions out
loud.
Then have students work in their small groups to answer the questions.
Finally, have the groups report their responses to the whole class.
Move through the remaining sections in the same fashion.
Note that to avoid giving away answers, you should give students the parts of a case study
sequentially, as indicated. The slides related to the case study could be shown during the work
session or used in a wrap-up session.
Use traditional testing on specific knowledge points regarding epidemiology and outbreak investigation
Use the sample problems and the national event problems found in medical quizzes, international and national
day celebration of public health importance.
Invite local experts to speak to the class. These could include a public health official from the local health
department, a physician specializing in infectious diseases, or an infection control nurse from a local hospital.
Introduce students to the NICD, CDC's weekly publication featuring breaking news in national and international
health.
Have students access the articles found in Careers in Epidemiology and read, report on, and discuss them.
Have students read The Hot Zone, The Cobra Event, or other health-related literature.
Show the movie Outbreak.
Have students research the pioneers of public health, such as John Snow, John Graunt, and William Farr.
59
ANNEXURE- 1
Background Information
60
Cases and Deaths due to GE in district Meerut 1997-2000
Year No. of cases No. of deaths
1997 981 225
1998 375 112
1999 1387 173
2000 2380 426
Q.No.1. Now, will you consider it an outbreak of GE? If yes why? If not, why?
________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________
* Analysis of the age distribution of 308 deaths revealed that about 9% of deaths occurred in
children below five years of age and about 62% of deaths occurred in adults above 20 years of age.
Q.No.2. Does it help you in suspecting cholera as the cause of this outbreak?
________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________
Q.No.3. What was the most disturbing features in this outbreak? Was it preventable?
* Rectal swabs from 59 cases were examined in the laboratories of NICD, Delhi. 15 Samples were
positive for V.cholerae O1 biotype E1 Tor. The isolates were sensitive to tetracycline, nalidixic acid,
ampicillin and chloramphenicol, but resistant to furazolidone and streptomycin. The other samples
were found negative for any enteropathogens.
Q.No.4. What are the possible reasons for 44 of 59 samples being found negative for entero-
pathogens?
________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________
Q.No.5. Assume yourself as the team leader for the investigation of this outbreak. (i) How
will you plan the investigations? (ii) How will you control the outbreak?
61
________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________
62
Exercise 1
During the previous year, nine residents of a community died from the same type of cancer. List
some reasons that might justify an investigation.
Exercise 2
During August, a county health department received reports of 12 new cases of tuberculosis and 12
new cases of aseptic meningitis. Tuberculosis does not have a striking seasonal distribution;
however, aseptic meningitis, which is caused primarily by a viral infection, is highly seasonal, and
peaks from August–October. What additional information is needed to determine whether either of
these groups of cases is an outbreak?
Exercise 3
Review the six case report forms in the Appendix and create a line listing based on the information.
Lab
Disease Date of Onset Confirmation
Trichinosis 7/27 Muscle
Biopsy
Hospital
Hospital Name Admission Date Discharge
Alerted?
Columbia General 7/27 Date
Yes
63
Date of
Physician Reporting Phone
Report
Dr. Baker 555-1900
8/17
Lab
Disease Date of Onset
Confirmation
Probable Trichinosis 8/14
Not Done
Hospital
Discharge
Alerted? Hospital Name Admission Date
Date
No
64
Lab
Disease Date of Onset
Confirmation
Trichinosis 8/4
Not Done
Hospital
Discharge
Alerted? Hospital Name Admission Date
Date
No
Possible
Comments (Clinical
Exposure
Lab Test Results description,
Cleveland-
Eosinophilia = 18% immunization
McKay
theory, etc.)
Wedding
Date of
Physician Reporting Phone
Report
Dr. Stanley 555-0400
8/14
Lab
Disease Date of Onset
Confirmation
Trichinosis 7/25
Serologic
Hospital
Discharge
Alerted? Hospital Name Admission Date
Date
No
65
State Disease Report Form
Lab
Disease Date of Onset
Confirmation
R/O Trichinosis 8/14
Not Done
Hospital
Hospital Name Admission Date Discharge
Alerted?
Columbia General 8/14 Date
Yes
Exercise 4
You are called to help investigate a cluster of 17 men who developed leukemia in a community.
Some of them worked as electrical repair men, and others were ham radio operators. Which study
design would you choose to investigate a possible association between exposure to
electromagnetic fields and leukemia?
Exercise 5
The manager of a grocery store has reported a rash illness among the store’s workers. What type of
study would you use to determine the source of the outbreak? Why? What is the appropriate measure
of association? After reviewing the table in the Appendix showing the data on exposure to celery for
these workers, calculate the measure of association and interpret your results.
No
Rash Total
Rash
66
Yes 25 31 56
Exposed to Celery? No 5 65 70
Total 30 96 126
One reason to investigate is simply to determine how many cases you would expect in the
community. In a large community, for instance, nine cases of a common cancer (e.g., lung,
breast, or colon cancer) would not be unusual. In a very small community, nine cases of
even a common cancer may seem unusual. If the particular cancer is rare, then nine cases
even in a large community may be unusual.
If the number of cases turns out to be high for that community, we might pursue the
investigation further. Our motive might be research—perhaps we will identify a new risk
factor (workers exposed to a particular chemical) or predisposition (people with a particular
genetic marker) for the cancer. Control and prevention may also be a justification. If we find
a risk factor, control and prevention measures could be developed. Alternatively, if the
cancer is generally treatable when found early and a screening test is available, then we
might try to determine not why these people developed the disease, but why they died
from it. For instance, if the problem were cancer of the cervix, detectable by Pap smear and
generally treatable if caught early, we might find (1) problems with access to health care, or
(2) physicians not following the recommendations to screen women at the appropriate
intervals, or (3) laboratory error in reading or reporting the test results. We could then
develop measures to correct the problems we found (public screening clinics, education of
physicians, or laboratory quality assurance).
If new staff needs to gain experience on a cluster investigation, training may be a reason to
investigate. If there is public concern, it may generate political pressure. Perhaps one of the
people affected is a member of the mayor's family. A health department must respond to
such concerns, but does not usually need to conduct a full-blown investigation. Finally, legal
concerns may prompt an investigation, especially if a particular site in the community is
implicated.
You need to know how many cases of each of these diseases usually occurs in this county during
August. Because tuberculosis is not seasonal, the number of cases could be compared with (a) the
numbers reported during the preceding several months and (b) the numbers reported during
August of the preceding few years. However, since aseptic meningitis is seasonal and peaks from
August–October, the number of cases during August is expected to be higher than the number
reported during the preceding several months, so you would need to compare with the numbers
reported during August of the preceding few years.
67
Hints for Exercise 3
The choice of information to include in a line listing is somewhat arbitrary. The following categories
are often included:
Identifying information
Identification number or case number, usually in the left-most column
Names or initials as a cross-check
Clinical information
Physician diagnosis
Was diagnosis confirmed? If so, how?
Symptoms
Laboratory results
Was the patient hospitalized? Did the patient die?
Descriptive epidemiology—time
Date of onset
Time of onset
Descriptive epidemiology—person
Age
Sex
Occupation, if relevant, or other seemingly relevant characteristics
Descriptive epidemiology—place
Street, city, or county
Worksite, school, day care center, etc., if relevant
Here is one way that a line listing might be drawn up from the six case report forms on the
Cleveland-McKay wedding outbreak:
Cleveland-
Date of How
ID # Initials Diagnosis Age Sex County Physician McKay
Onset Confirmed
Wedding
probable
1 KR 7/23 Not done 29 M Columbia Goodman Yes
trichinosis
2 DM 7/27 trichinosis Biopsy 33 M Columbia Baker Yes
probable
3 JG 8/14 Not done 26 M Columbia Gibbs Yes
trichinosis
4 RD 7/25 trichinosis Serologia 45 M King Webster Yes
68
5 NT 8/4 trichinosis Not done 27 F Columbia Stanley Yes
6 AM 8/11 R/O trichinosis Pending 54 F Clayton Mason Yes
Because the total population at risk is not well defined, you would use a case-control study. You
would begin by enrolling the 17 people already identified with leukemia as the case group. You
would also need to determine what group might serve as an appropriate comparison, or control,
group. Neighbors might be used for the control group, for example. In your case-control study, you
would determine whether each case-patient and each control had been exposed to
electromagnetic fields (however you defined that exposure). Finally, you would compare the
exposures of case-patients and controls.
You would use a cohort study because the outbreak is small and confined. The appropriate measure
of association for a cohort study is relative risk, which is calculated in this case as the attack rate for
workers exposed to celery divided by the attack rate for those who were not exposed.
The attack rate for exposed workers is 25 / 56, or 44.6%. The attack rate for workers who were not
exposed is 5 / 70, or 7.1%. Thus, the relative risk for exposure to celery is 44.6 / 7.1, or 6.3. This
means that workers who were exposed to celery were 6.3 times more likely to develop the rash
illness than those who were not exposed, and it is therefore likely that celery was the source of the
outbreak. However, before you could draw this conclusion, you would need to compare the relative
risk for celery with that for other vegetables and fruits to see if the implication is stronger for any of
them.
Then, to test the likelihood of your findings, you would need to calculate a test of statistical
significance such as chi-square for the item with the highest relative risk and look up the
corresponding p-value in a table of p-values. If the p-value was below .05, your findings would be
considered statistically significant.
Source:
1. cdc.gov. Excite, learning epidemiology
2. Immunization guide for immunization for medical officer
69
SECTION – D
70
Practical exercise
Cause or association?
Scenario
A descriptive study in a large population of teenagers and young adults (n=25 000) has shown a statistically significant
association between the use of a new bronchodilator drug and the risk of dying from asthma. On the
basis of this finding there is a public outcry demanding the withdrawal of the drug from the market.
71
Would you regard this as justified?
What further information would you need in order to evaluate whether or not this new drug causes fatal
asthma?
Practical exercise
An essential aspect of the learning experience in this course is for small groups to work together throughout the week
on the development of a written research protocol. Based on past experience, the identification and precise
formulation of the study questions to be addressed by the protocol groups is the first major potential stumbling block in
the course. The following exercise may be helpful to assist course instructors and participants in coming to decisions
about study questions in a timely fashion, so that sufficient time is left for groups to work on the details of the
protocols.
72
The exercise can be done individually, or as a group ‘brainstorming’ session. The first step is best completed on the first
day of the course, and steps 2 and 3 on the second day (after the participants have had a chance to discuss topics
informally among themselves and with faculty).
Among conditions affecting lung health, the most frequent serious conditions in your region are (list them, be specific):
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Interests and experience of the research team; Relevance to the political and social imperatives
Are there specific research questions or topics of particular interest to you or your colleagues, or that you know are of
particular interest to managers of health services or health spending in your region (list them):
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
73
8.
9.
10.
Combining aspects from the two lists above, list (? in order of priority), several topics or research questions for protocol
development.
Questions for the group to consider: What criteria will you use to decide what topics remain on the list? to decide the
order of priority? (interest of participants - ? by vote, consensus; fundability; seriousness of the disease; frequency of
the disease; prior experience of participants)
In previous courses, participants have found it useful to select 4 to 6 general topic areas that address different diseases
(or health-related states), or that reflect differing types of study populations (eg. clinical topics, health service delivery
issues, community or workplace studies, evaluation of treatments).
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
74
3. From general ‘topics’ to study questions and specific objectives
At some point in the study question development process, participants in previous courses have found it useful to fill in
templates similar to the ones below for the study topics / questions identified (either after the initial brainstorming – to
help narrow the focus, or after 4-6 topics have been chosen).
75
Practical exercise
Study Design
The following are a group of selected abstracts of scientific articles on lung health published in recent years (slightly
edited for purposes of this exercise). Each abstract describes a scientific study of an epidemiological nature, giving
setting, objectives, design, results and conclusions.
Read each abstract and then define what type of study design is described in the abstract, using the enclosed standard
form and taking into account the elements described in the preceding section.
The answers to these questions should allow you to correctly determine which type of study design the investigators
have selected.
ABSTRACTS:
76
Study 2 - Cigarette smoking as a risk factor for tuberculosis
Setting: The association between smoking and pulmonary tuberculosis has not often been studied.
Objective: To assess the influence of cigarette smoking on the development of active pulmonary tuberculosis in young
people who were close contacts of new cases of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis.
Design: A comparison of 46 patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis and 46 patients with positive tuberculin tests
but no active tuberculosis. Smoking habits were investigated using a questionnaire. Analysis was performed and odds
ratios adjusted for age, gender, and socio-economic status.
Results: Statistically significant differences were found in active smokers (OR 3.7, 95%CI 1.5 to 9.2). There was a dose-
response relationship between the number of cigarettes smoked daily and the risk of active pulmonary tuberculosis.
Conclusions: The data studies show that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for pulmonary tuberculosis in young people.
Tuber Lung Dis 1996;77:112-116
Setting: Tuberculosis centre in Hopital Jamot, Yaounde, the sole referral facility for tuberculosis treatment
Objectives: To identify strains of M tuberculosis responsible for pulmonary tuberculosis and to determine the
prevalence of initial resistance to the main drugs used for treatment and to compare this prevalence between those HIV
positive and HIV negative
Design: 576 consecutive, previously untreated, adult patients with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis, admitted
between July 1994 and December 1995 were studied. Standard species identification was carried out. Sputum was
cultured on Lowenstein-Jensen and Coletsos media. Susceptibility of isolates to major drugs was tested using the
indirect proportion method. HIV testing was performed with 2 ELISAs and confirmed with Western Blot.
Results: M. tuberculosis was isolated in 516 (90%) of the cases. Of the 516 cases, 92 (18%) were HIV positive. Of the 516
strains isolated, 164 (32%) were resistant to at least one drug. Resistance was noted as follows: 25% to one drug, 5.8%
to 2 drugs, and 1% to three or more. Initial resistance was most frequent to Streptomycin (20.5%), followed by isoniazid
(12.4%), rifampicin (0.8%) and ethambutol (0.4%). No significant difference was observed between HIV-positive and
HIV-negative patients.
Conclusion: Initial drug resistance to M tuberculosis is relatively high in Yaounde.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 1997;1:110-114
77
Study 5 - Yield of acid-fast smears in laboratories in Tanzania
Setting: Routine laboratories in Tanzania performing sputum smears for acid-fast bacilli
Objectives: To determine the yield of smear examination under routine conditions in a low income country where
tuberculosis is common.
Design: Analysis of routine records in 34 rural smear laboratories using a common, standardized recording system,
identified 61,580 tuberculosis suspects with 141, 371 sputum smear examinations. Incremental yield of subsequent
sputum smears was determined based on the results obtained in those reported.
Results: The average proportion of cases found among suspects was 19% (range 14-24%). The incremental yield of
subsequent sputum smear examinations was estimated to be 83%, 12% and 4% on the three smears examined.
Conclusions: The incremental yield of a third examination, after two have been examined is relatively low. The
proportion of suspects found to be positive was higher than previously noted.
Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hygiene 1996;90:258-261
Setting: A district in Northern Malawi where BCG was introduced in 1974 using the Glaxo, freeze-dried vaccine
Objectives: To determine the protective efficacy of this vaccine against tuberculosis and leprosy
Design: The presence of a BCG scar was prospectively determined in 83,455 individuals residing in the district and
followed from 1979 to 1989 to determine whether they developed tuberculosis or leprosy.
Results: 414 new cases of leprosy and 180 new cases of tuberculosis were identified. Protection against leprosy was
estimated at 50% or greater in those with BCG scars, whereas no statistically significant protection could be
demonstrated against tuberculosis.
Conclusions: BCG affords better protection against leprosy than against tuberculosis
Lancet 1992;339:636-639
78
Evaluation of Study Designs
Study 1
Study 2
Study 3
Study 4
Study 5
Study 6
79
Practical exercise
Case-control and Cohort Studies
A causal relationship between cigarette smoking and lung cancer was first suspected by clinicians in the 1920s on the
basis of clinical observations. To test this apparent association Richard Doll and Austin Bradford Hill carried out two
major studies. . The first was a case-control study, begun in 1947, in which the smoking habits of lung cancer patients
were compared with the smoking habits of other patients. The second was a cohort study, begun in 1951, which
related causes of death among doctors to their previously recorded smoking habits.
Data were obtained from patients in hospitals in and near London, over a 4-year period. Initially, 20 hospitals, and later
more, were asked to notify the investigators of all patients admitted with a diagnosis of lung cancer. These patients and
controls selected from in-patients with other disorders (primarily non-malignant) in the same hospitals at the same
time were then interviewed about their smoking habits.
A total of 1,465 cases of lung cancer, all under age 75, were included in the study. These patients were culled from a
larger number of which about 15% were not interviewed because of death, discharge, severity of illness, or inability to
speak English.
Diagnoses of lung cancer in nearly all cases were based on biopsy, autopsy, sputum cytology wih or without
bronchoscopic or radiographic evidence.
Interviews were conducted by four full-time social workers. Each worker, after interviewing a patient with lung cancer,
interviewed a control patient of the same gender and the same 5-year age group. Table 1 compares cases and controls
in terms of age and gender.
Cases Controls
Age group Men Women Men Women
25-34 17 3 17 3
35-44 116 15 116 15
45-54 493 38 493 38
55-65 545 34 545 34
65-84 186 18 186 18
Total 1,357 108 1,357 108
Table 2. Number and per cent of male cases and controls by amount smoked
0 7 0,5 61 4,5
1-4 49 3,6 91 6,7
5-14 516 38,0 615 45,3
15-24 445 32,8 408 30,1
25-49 299 22,0 162 11,9
50+ 41 3,0 20 1,5
80
The study showed a clear association between smoking and lung cancer(Table 2), but differences between case and
control patients, particularly in terms of questionnaire response, might make the association spurious. Did lung cancer
patients, knowing they had lung cancer, tend to exaggerate their smoking habits? Did controls, knowing smoking is ‘bad
for you’ tend to under-report their smoking? Did interviewers, through prior knowledge of the hypothesis tend to
exaggerate the smoking habits of lung cancer patients and minimize the smoking of controls? Possible answers to these
questions came from patients initially interviewed as presumed lung cancer cases but later found not to have the
disease. Table 3 compares the smoking habits of men aged 45-74 in this and other diagnostic groups.
Table 3. Percentage distribution of daily smoking habits for selected disease groups (standardized to age distribution
of population of England and Wales)
1. How representative of all persons with lung cancer are cases admitted to hospital likely to be?
2. How representative of all persons without lung cancer are other patients in hospital likely to be?
3. What biases may have been introduced by failure to interview 15% of the cases?
4. Why did the investigators require that control patients be of the same gender and age group as case patients?
5. What do the data of table 2 suggest about the relationship between cigarette smoking and lung cancer?
6. Compute the odds ratio for lung cancer occurring in all smokers compared with non-smokers. What does this
represent? What does it suggest with regard to the etiological role of cigarette smoking in lung cancer?
7. If the ‘control’ patients were asthma patients, would this change your opinion about the etiological role of cigarette
smoking in lung cancer based on the results of this study?
8. What does table 3 tell us? Why was age standardization of the data required?
In 1951, a prospective cohort study was undertaken to quantify the relation between smoking and lung cancer. The
study population comprised all physicians listed in the Medical Register and resident in England and Wales in October
1951. Information about present and past smoking habits was obtained by questionnaire. Deaths from lung cancer
were identified from death certificates and other mortality data recorded during ensuing years.
In October 1951 questionnaires were mailed to 59,600 physicians, seeking self-classification under any of 3 smoking
groups: [1] current smokers, [2] ex-smokers and [3] non-smokers. Smokers and ex-smokers were asked the amount they
smoked, their method of smoking, the age they started to smoke, and, if they had stopped smoking, how long it had
81
been since they last smoked. Usable responses to the questionnaires were received from 34,445 (85%) of the male
physicians.
The occurrence of lung cancer in physicians who responded to the questionnaire was documented over the next 10
years (November 1951 to October 1961) from death certificates filed with the Registrar General and from lists of
physician deaths provided by the British Medical Association. All certificates indicating that the deceased was a
physician were abstracted. For each lung cancer case, medical records were obtained to confirm the diagnosis. The
same clinical and pathologic criteria were used as in the earlier case-control study. Of 4,597 deaths in the cohort over
the 10 year period, 216 were reported to have had lung cancer, a diagnosis that could be documented in 4, leaving a net
total of 212 cases of lung cancer.
Table 4 shows lung cancer deaths by age and amount smoked. Rates are both age-specific and age standardized (ëall
agesí category) and are expressed as deaths per 1,000 person-years at risk.
Table 4. Age-specific lung cancer death rates per 1 000 person-years at risk, by age group and amount smoked
The relation between lung cancer mortality and cessation of smoking is shown in Table 5.
Smoking habit Number of lung cancer deaths Rates per 1 000 person-years
1. What proportion of male physicians answered the questionnaire? How might this affect comparability of smokers
and non-smokers in the study?
2. From table 4, compute and interpret values of relative and attributable risk for the “total” group.
82
Practical exercise
Clinical trials
The following are various scenarios illustrating clinical trials. Read the scenarios and answer the questions.
Scenario 1
A new anti-tuberculosis medication has been developed which has shown good in vitro activity and low toxicity in phase
2 (safety) trials. A randomised control clinical trial is now being planned.
Which of the following groups would you consider to be the most appropriate controls and why? What are the
disadvantages of the groups you do not select?
No Yes
1. Patients who receive the current standard 2-drug therapy in your clinic
If no: disadvantages
2. Patients who receive a placebo drug
If no: disadvantages
3. Patients who receive only one of the two drugs in current use
If no: disadvantages
4. Two groups, one on the current two drugs and one on placebo
If no: disadvantages
Scenario 2
In a trial of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine involving 60 000 infants, children born on odd dates during
a twelve month period received the vaccine in a four dose schedule plus the routine infant immunisation schedule
vaccines. Those born on even dates served as controls and received only the routine vaccine schedule.
What factors would have entered into the calculation of numbers of infants in the trial?
83
Practical exercise
Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Study Designs
Complete this table by placing one or more “+” or “ –“ marks or short comments in the boxes to provide a quick
comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of these different study designs.
Cost
84
Practical Exercise
Sampling a population
We propose to do a study of knowledge of tuberculosis in a group who are members of a scientific society. We have
obtained a list of the members (see next page) from the register of members of the association and we will obtain a
sample of the members to administer a questionnaire.
List the frequencies of the variables gender, language, region, TB and BACT.
Select the first 8 members in the list.
List the frequencies of the same variables in the table.
Select every 5th member in the list.
List the frequencies of the same variables in the table.
Gender
Men
Women
Don’t know
Language
French
English
Spanish
Don’t know
TB
Yes
No
Don’t know
Bact
Yes
No
Don’t know
3. Why?
4. What conclusion would you draw about the geographic focus of the society from the first eight cases?
6. What will be the effect of those cases where the value is not known?
85
List of members of a scientific society
86
Practical exercise
When a coin is flipped, the result, ie. heads or tails, is a random event (provided it is a fair coin, and the person flipping
it is not a trickster).
Question: If you were to conduct an experiment to test if a coin is fair, what proportion of the time would you expect
the coin to land with ‘heads up’? (ie. what is the hypothesized result of the experiment?)
Exercise: Let each person in the group conduct his or her own experiment to test a coin.
Each person flips a coin 5 times and records the number of times the coin lands heads up, then compute the percentage
‘heads’. If there are 25 people in the group, this exercise is similar to doing the same study (with n=5 ‘tosses’), 25
separate times.
Repeat this series of experiments, this time with each person flipping their coin 25 times. Again each persons calculates
the percentage ‘heads’ from his or her own ‘study’.
87
Record the results from the two series of experiments as frequency histograms on the following graphs.
20
18
16
14
number
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100
Percentage 'Heads"
20
18
16
14
number
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100
Percentage 'Heads"
Questions:
1. What can you conclude about the most likely percentage of ‘heads’ one would obtain from a single study? Does
this ‘most likely’ value change when the sample size of the study is larger or smaller?
2. What can you conclude about the expected ‘variation’ in results due to chance when the sample size is smaller v.
larger.
3. If a colleague were to tell you that she tested a coins by flipping it several times and she found it came up ‘heads’
20% of the time, could she conclude that the coin is rigged?
4. Two colleagues came to you with results of their studies on 2 different coins. They each tested different coins by
flipping them several times and they found one came up ‘heads’ 20% of the time (ie. a ‘head rate’ of 20%) and the
other came up ‘heads’ 65% of the time (a ‘head rate’ of 65%).
What is the difference in ‘head rates’ between the two studies? What is the rate ratio?
Are you confident that these differences are real? What additional information would you need to know in order
to decide in the coins are similar?
88
Practical exercise
Case studies and some recent epidemiologic studies have suggested a possible link between some occupational and
environmental exposures and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).
1. To address the question, “Is there an association between ‘idiopathic’ pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and occupational
exposure to solvents or metals?” describe several possible study designs that could be considered.
2. One of your colleagues is the medical director for a large metal trades employer and you have access to health
records for all employees in the company for the past 35 years. Therefore, you have decided on a retrospective cohort
study. All employees with 1 or more years of employment since January 1, 1965 will be enrolled in the cohort. They
will be divided into exposure subgroups according to job records and company exposure information. You will compare
rates of IPF among the exposure sub-groups.
What additional information do you need in order to calculate the whether or not the available workforce is large
enough to do this kind of study?
3. Using Epi-Info, calculate the sample size needed for a cohort study given the following assumptions and decisions:
Null hypothesis: There is no difference in IPF rates between workers exposed to solvents and metals combined
compared to workers not exposed to either.
89
4. Do the same calculation several more times, varying one or more of: alpha, power, and ‘expected risk ratio’, to
complete this table:
Sample size / power estimates for a cohort study of occupational exposure to solvents and metals and IPF
assuming a baseline IPF rate (among non-exposed) of 6/1,000,000 persons per year.
5. If the baseline rate of IPF is actually lower than 6 / 1,000,000 per year, would you expect the required sample size to
be lower or higher? Check your answer by doing another Epi-Info calculation.
6. After investigating the company records, it is evident that there are only 1000 employees who have been exposed to
solvents and metals. Therefore, based on the sample size calculations, the research team decides that a cohort study is
not feasible and decides to explore the case-control design instead. All pulmonologists and pathologists in the region
are polled and they agree to submit all their IPF cases over the 2 years to the study. Based on estimates of the number
of IPF cases seen in the previous 2 years, you anticipate about 200 cases for the study.
Using Epi-Info, calculate what odds ratio a study of this size should be able to detect (with alpha=0.05 and power of
80%). What additional information about the expected study population is needed to do this calculation?
7. Compare the minimum detectable odds ratios for this kind of study, for expected baseline exposure prevalences of
2%, 20%, 50%, and 90%. What do you conclude about study power in relation to the prevalence of exposure in the
population?
90
Practical exercise
Measurement - Defining variables
Characteristics of the variables to be used in a study are key in determining what instruments will be used, the size of
the population to be studied and how the results will be analyzed.
The following are outcome variables frequently used in studies of lung health. Please indicate the type of each variable:
Variable Type
Tuberculosis
FEV1 level
Tuberculin reaction
Pneumonia
Asthma severity
Smear positive TB
Lung cancer
Emphysema
ARI
The following are a number of factors or determinants often studied for their association with lung diseases. Indicate
the type of each variable:
Variable Type
Poverty
Bacterial exposure
Tobacco smoking
Dust exposure
Gender
Age
Ethnic group
Height
Immune competence
Which of the variables listed above could be expressed in different forms (eg. as either categorical or continuous?)
91
Definition of variables
Consider the following list of definitions of tuberculosis used in articles published in the International Journal of
Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, from the first quarter of 1999
1. Reported patients with sputum smears positive for acid-fast bacilli in Botswana
2. A patient with a definitive diagnosis of pulmonary (positive culture and / or clinical and
radiological diagnosis) and / or extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (positive culture) in London
6. Every newly-diagnosed tuberculosis patient in New Caledonia confirmed on culture in the Institut
Pasteur
Is it possible to conclude something about “tuberculosis” by simply summarizing the conclusions of all these studies?
If you were going to list results or attributes from each of the studies that are comparable across all studies, how would
you do it?
92
Practical exercise
Defining disease
The following are a group of children who have come to a health centre in the rural area of a low income country:
A 4 year old child brought by his mother who has tuberculosis. The child has a cough and weight loss, a
positive tuberculin skin test and has a shadow on the chest radiograph.
A 2 year old child who has been ill for 5 months with failure to thrive and fever.
A 6-month old child with fever and a positive skin test.
An 8-month old child who lives with his uncle who has tuberculosis.
A 3 year old child who has fever and weight loss for 6 weeks and has a shadow on the chest radiograph.
A 2 year old child who, on enrolling in a child care centre, has a shadow on the chest radiograph.
3. How do you know? (What are the criteria you use to decide?)
6. Why?
7. If this was a sample from a larger group of children being studied, what difference would varying the criteria for
diagnosis make on the results of the study?
93
Practical exercise
Measuring disease
The purpose of this practical is to introduce you to the use and limitations of mortality statistics and disease rates. You
should understand how these statistics are obtained and know the most common causes of death at different ages. You
should aim to be conversant with the following terms introduced here.
Medical certificate of cause of death; Parts I and II of the certificate; Death certificate; Underlying cause of
death; International Classification of Disease (ICD) Code; The difference between numbers and rates; Crude
mortality rate; Age and cause specific mortality rates; Age standardization and Standardized Mortality Ratios
(SMRs); Incidence rates and prevalence rates.
1. Study the case history which follows and the specimen medical certificate of cause of death. Complete it and
place the International Classification of Disease Code beside the one underlying cause of death.
Death certificate
International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, (ICD-10)
World Health Organization 1991
Approximate
Cause of death interval between
onset and death
I
Disease or condition directly (a)…………………………………………. ………………..
leading to death*
Due to (or as a consequence of)
(b)…………………………………………. ………………..
Antecedent causes
Morbid conditions, if any, Due to (or as a consequence of)
Giving rise to the above cause,
stating the underlying (c)…………………………………………. ………………..
condition last
Due to (or as a consequence of)
(d)…………………………………………. ………………..
II
Other significant conditions
contributing to the death, but not …………………………………………….. ………………..
related to the disease or condition
causing it …………………………………………….. ……………….
This does not mean the mode of dying, e.g. heart failure, respiratory failure.
It means the disease, injury, or complication that caused death.
94
Case history
History: Four years before his final hospital admission, this 64-year old man had an admission to hospital for acute
shortness of breath. Lung function showed reduced FEV 1 with response to bronchodilator. He was
treated with inhaled beta agonists and beclomethasone. One year later, he was again admitted to
hospital and required a period of artificial ventilation for respiratory failure. Subsequently, he regular
ambulatory oxygen at home. He returned to hospital on this occasion because of breathlessness. He
started smoking cigarettes at age 16, averaged 30 per day and stopped smoking after his last
admission.
Examination: CVS – pulse 78 / min; regular. RR 50 / min; prolonged expiration with expiratory wheeze; increased
anteroposterior diameter to the chest with hyper resonance; cyanosis noted.
Investigations: Hb 11,8 g / dl; Urine – no protein or sugar; Spirometry showed reduced FEV 1 (18% of predicted)
with reduced FEV / FVC (40%).
Clinical course: Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit and intubated; following day developed fever and left shift to WBC;
tracheal secretions yielded Pseudomonas aerugenosa resistant to all common antibiotics; developed
progressive infiltration on chest radiographs; oxygenation progessively deteriorated; developed acute
chest pain, ventricular fibrillation and expired.
3. The Incidence rate of a disease is the rate per unit time at which the previously unaffected develop the disease.
The prevalence ratio of a disease at any time is the proportion of the population affected.
What will tend to raise or lower the prevalence ratio of a disease apart from its incidence rate?
How might you measure incidence and prevalence, for example, of asthma?
95
I21.0 Acute transmural myocardial infarction: of anterior wall
I21.1 Acute transmural myocardial infarction: of inferior wall
I21.2 Acute transmural myocardial infarction of other sites
I21.3 Acute transmural myocardial infarction of unspecified site
I21.4 Acute subendocardial myocardial infarction
I21.9 Acute myocardial infarction, unspecified
J43 Emphysema
J44.0 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute lower respiratory infection
J44.1 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute exacerbation, unspecified
J44.8 Other specified chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
J44.9 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, unspecified
J45 Asthma
96
J45.1 Nonallergic asthma
J45.8 Mixed asthma
J45.9 Asthma, unspecified
J47 Bronchiectasis
Practical exercise
Measuring disease
An international collaborative study was made of the results of treatment of new cases of pulmonary cases that were
smear positive. Of 492 cases in British Columbia, Canada, 5.1% died during the course of their treatment as compared
with 3.0% of 3,163 cases in Sudan. The same definitions for outcome of treatment were used, following the
recommendations of the IUATLD.
2. What other information would be necessary to compare the deaths in the two countries?
3. How would this information be used to improve the validity of the comparison?
97
Practical exercise
Measurement: using standardized instruments
The following exercises are meant to illustrate the issues associated with measurement in epidemiological studies. The
two exercises presented are simple exercises which illustrate the problems frequently encountered with measurements
and their interpretation.
The first exercise is the interpretation of chest radiographs. Four radiographs will be presented and these should be
interpreted by the participants according to a standard format, following the directions on the Radiography report form
which is appended to this exercise. Anyone can participate, regardless of qualification or previous experience.
The exercise will illustrate variation in interpretation of a commonly used test which is often considered an essential
item for diagnosis of chest diseases. The exercise is based on standard reading of chest films which has been developed
for the reading of chest radiographs for the presence of pneumoconiosis, developed by the International Labor Office.
The second exercise illustrates the use of a standard Respiratory symptoms questionnaire, in this case, an expanded
version of the bronchial symptoms questionnaire developed by the IUATLD for the study of asthma.
98
Radiography Report Form
Film number [ ]
To answer the questions, please choose the appropriate box and mark an x in the box; if you are unsure of the
answer, please choose ‘no’.
no yes
1. Adequate exposure? [ ] [ ]
2. Proper position? [ ] [ ]
Parenchymal shadows
no yes
3. Round shadows? [ ] [ ]
If yes:
Smaller than 2 millimeters? [ ] [ ]
Larger than 2 millimeters? [ ] [ ]
Location:
R upper? [ ] [ ]
L upper? [ ] [ ]
R lower? [ ] [ ]
L lower? [ ] [ ]
4. Irregular shadows? [ ] [ ]
If yes:
Smaller than 2 millimeters? [ ] [ ]
Larger than 2 millimeters? [ ] [ ]
Location:
R upper? [ ] [ ]
L upper? [ ] [ ]
R lower? [ ] [ ]
L lower? [ ] [ ]
5. Calcification? [ ] [ ]
6. Cavity? [ ] [ ]
Pleura
7. Presence of thickening? [ ] [ ]
8. Presence of calcification? [ ] [ ]
99
ASTHMA QUESTIONNAIRE – Selected questions
The following questions are about your lung health IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS.
Please answer yes or no. If in doubt about the answer, please answer no.
A. Have you had wheezing or whistling in your chest, when you did not have a cold? 1.Yes __ 2. No __
B. Have you woken up with a feeling of tightness in your chest? 1.Yes __ 2. No __
C. Have you been woken by an attack of coughing? 1.Yes __ 2. No __
D. Have you been woken by an attack of shortness of breath? 1.Yes __ 2. No __
E. Have you had an attack of shortness of breath that came on during the day when 1.Yes __ 2. No __
you were not doing anything strenuous?
F. Have you had an attack of shortness of breath that came on after you stopped 1.Yes __ 2. No __
exercising?
Check one:
1. I rarely get trouble with my breathing
2. I do get regular trouble with my breathing but it always gets completely better
3. My breathing is never quite right
HISTORY OF ASTHMA
100
SUBJECT ID NUMBER
OTHER ILLNESSES
A. Did you have any lung trouble before the 1.Yes __ 2.No __
age of 16?
B. Have you ever had pneumonia? 1.Yes __ 2.No __
if yes to B ask:
The following questions are about some parts of your background which may be important to us in evaluating your health.
Please answer to the best of your memory.
TOBACCO SMOKING
D. Have you ever smoked cigarettes? (No means less than 20 packs of cigarettes or 1.Yes ___ 2.No ___
less than one cigarette a day for one year)
1. Do you now smoke cigarettes? (as of 1 month ago) 1.Yes ___ 2. No ___
2. How old were you when you first started regular cigarette smoking?
______________years
3. If you have sopped smoking cigarettes completely, how old were you
when you stopped? ______________years
4. How many cigarettes do you smoke per day now? __________________
cigarettes per day
5. On average, for the entire time that you smoked, how many cigarettes __________________
did you smoke per day? cigarettes per day
101
SUBJECT ID NUMBER
FAMILY HISTORY
As some illnesses are associated with childhood and family history we would like to ask you about your family members,
and about your childhood.
Check one:
1.Yes 2. No 3.Don’t know
Was your natural father ever told by a doctor that he had:
1. Emphysema
2. Lung cancer
3. Asthma
Was your natural mother ever told by a doctor that she had:
1. Emphysema
2. Lung cancer
3. Asthma
In what country did you spend the majority of the first 10 years of your life?
____________________________
YOUR CURRENT JOB (or last job, if you are not currently working)
4. In this job, are you exposed regularly to dust, gases, or fumes? 1. Yes 2. No __
5. In any previous job, were you exposed regularly to dust, gases, or fumes? 1. Yes 2. No
102
Practical Exercise
Interpreting Results: validity and generalizability of results
A study was undertaken to determine whether the results of treatment of smear positive cases of pulmonary
tuberculosis had changed over time. It was expected that, with the improvements in modern treatment, the results
would have improved. A similar number of cases was selected from the records of a tuberculosis ward for three
calendar periods, 1968-1969, 1973-1975 and 1982-1983. The results of treatment were as follows:
Period Total (%) Successful (%) Positive (%) Died (%) Abandoned (%)
Statistical analysis, using the chi-square test, was performed and the p=0.12, leading the investigators to conclude that
there was no change in the response to treatment over the period studied.
The patients chosen for study were part of the whole group of smear positive cases who had been diagnosed and
recorded in the years under study. They comprised 37% of such cases in 1968-1969, 24% of cases in 1973-1975 and 38%
of cases in 1982-1983. The studied cases were not different from the whole group of patients in age (p=0.96), gender
(p=0.95) or ethnic origin (p=0.35). There was, however, a significant difference in the extent of pulmonary tuberculosis
among those studied compared with the whole population (extensive tuberculosis was present in 43% of those studied
and 33% of those not studied, p=0.003).
3. Is the sample a valid reflection of the condition of all the patients in this locality?
Check one [ ]yes [ ] no
103
4. Is it justifiable to conclude that the results obtained in the sample apply to the whole group of patients diagnosed
and recorded in this community?
Among the group studied, the results of treatment were not different in the two gender groups (p=0.24), nor in the
various ethnic groups (p=0.10) but were different in different age groups (p<0.001) and between those with extensive
and those with less extensive disease (p=0.001).
5. Which factor(s) would be most likely to contribute to a wrong conclusion concerning the trend in results of
treatment?
Practical exercise
Please refer to the following text and tables to carry out this exercise.
In a study of the epidemiology of tuberculosis in Denmark, Horwitz (Am Rev Respir Dis 1974;104:22-31) showed that
tuberculosis was more common in men than in women and that it was much more common in those who were
unmarried than in those who had been married. The results of a study determining the relation of marital status to
tuberculosis notification in Canada from 1970-1972 is shown in table 1.
Table 1. Active tuberculosis (number of cases and average annual rate per 100 000) by gender and marital status,
Canada 1970-1972
Women Men
Age Married / Widowed / Married / Widowed /
group Single Separated Divorced TOTAL Single Separated Divorced TOTAL
Grzybowski S. Evaluation of the Tuberculosis Problem and Control Measures in Canada. National Sanatorium
Association, 1977
104
In table 2, the same data are displayed, in this case showing the distribution by age in addition to gender and marital
status.
Table 2. Active tuberculosis by age, gender and marital status, Canada 1970-1972
Women Men
Age Married / Widowed / Married / Widowed /
group Single Separated Divorced ALL Single Separated Divorced ALL
_____________(age)__________(gender)__________(marital)
4. Why do you think this is so?
5. In table 2, are the conclusions you drew from table 1 valid? Yes [ ] No [ ]
6. Which group in the table contributes the largest number of cases?
_____________(age)__________(gender)__________(marital)
9. How would you modify the results displayed in table 1 to reflect reality?
105
One decade later, we further examined this association in the city of Vancouver. The results are presented in table 3.
10. In table 3, are the conclusions you drew from table 2 valid? Yes [ ] No [ ]
11. What is the cause of the difference in rates between ever married and never married men?
Table 3. Active tuberculosis(per 100 000 per year) in Vancouver 1980-1982 in adult Canadian-born men according to
socioeconomic status and marital status.
TOTAL 43 22 42 37
High 3 3 5 12
Middle 21 22 13 20
Low 19 299 24 326
106
Practical exercise
Interpreting results: Standardization of rates
The following table gives the situation concerning prevalence of significant skin reactions to tuberculin in residents of
Honduras and of Canada, along with their populations:
Canada Honduras
population cases rate population cases Rate
Age (%) (%)
Calculate the rate of tuberculin skin reactivity in the two populations, standardized for age and enter into the
table.
What is the explanation of the difference between the crude rate and the standardized rate?
What are the advantages of the standardized rates over the crude rates?
107
Practical exercise
from The Epidemiology of tuberculosis in gold miners with silicosis. Cowie RL. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1994;
150:1460-1462.
These investigators carried out a 7 year prospective study of 1153 South African gold miners. At the start of the study,
818 of the miners had silicosis and 335 did not. Each miner was tested for active tuberculosis each year for the 7 years
of follow-up. The investigators were interested in knowing if miners with silicosis were more likely to develop
tuberculosis than those without silicosis.
Silicosis p-value
No Yes
1. What do you conclude from these results with respect to the rates of pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis
among these two groups of miners?
2. Do you think the groups differ with respect to the proportion of total tuberculosis that is extra-pulmonary?
3. Recalculate the proportions of extra-pulmonary to total TB for the miners without silicosis, if there were 1 fewer
case (and 1 more case) of extra-pulmonary TB in that group (ie. 2 or 4 cases instead of 3). Does this change your
answer to question 2?
4. In what way would statistical testing help you answer these questions?
108
Practical exercise
Describing results
Gbadero DA, Johnson ABR, Aderele WI, Olaleye OD. Thorax 1995; 50:739-745.
Objective: to determine how often acute exacerbations of asthma in children are associated with acute respiratory
infection, to identify the associated pathogens, and to proffer appropriate therapeutic suggestions.
Study population:
subjects were recruited from asthmatic children attending the Pediatric Asthma Clinic of the University College
Hospital over a 16 month period
children were included in the study if they were previously diagnosed as having asthma, and visited the clinic with
an acute exacerbation with duration of symptoms prior to visit of less than 48 hours; only 1 episode was recorded
per child
Methods:
clinical features recorded included: antecedent or concomitant symptoms; household / socioeconomic factors;
frequency of previous asthma exacerbations; anthropometric measurements
laboratory measures included: chest radiograph; hematology, serology and cultures (venous blood); virological
studies (nasopharyngeal aspirate)
subject age sex race date weight height virus bacteria xray rhinor- fever? sore crowding .. ..
id (yrs) of (kg) (cm) identified identified inflamm? rhoea? yes/no throat? at home?
visit (yes/no), (yes/no), yes/no yes/no yes/no yes/no
if yes: if yes:
type type
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
.
.
86
Discuss how to summarize the information collected (don’t focus on statistical analyses, rather
think about how to summarize the information). Prepare 1 or 2 tables (without numbers, just
headings for the rows and columns) to describe the information collected for the study.
109
Hints:
1. Consider the study objectives. What is the main question being asked?
2. Are there two groups (or subgroups) being compared (this may not be explicit).
3. What is the health outcome being investigated? What risk factors were measured?
4. What is/are the main comparisons needed to answer the study questions?
5. How can you display the results in order to show the comparisons clearly?
110
Practical exercise - 2
Describing results
R. Ridzon, C. G. Whitney, M.T. McKenna, J. P. Taylor, S.H. Ashkar, A.T. Nitta, S.M. Harvey, S. Valway, C. Woodley, R.
Cooksey, I. M. Onorato; Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 157, 1998, 1881-1884
Objective: to investigate the relationship between rifampin mono-resistant tuberculosis and use of rifabutin and to
identify other risk factors for rifampin mono-resistant tuberculosis among patients with and without HIV infection
Methods: Medical records were reviewed, including tuberculosis clinic records, hospital records, private provider
records, and HIV clinic records (when applicable). Information collected included demographics (age, sex, race, birth
place), history of homelessness, incarceration, HIV status, prior tuberculosis, diarrhea, and medications taken at the
time of and prior to the current diagnosis of tuberculosis.
subject id rifampin age sex race home birth HIV status prior tb prior prior diar- rifabutin . .
resistant less place O.I. jail rhea use
1 yes 33 m b y US p n y . . . .
2 no 56 m a y US p n y
3 no 46 m w n US n n n
4 no 40 f w n US n n n
5 yes 68 m h n US n y n
6 yes 21 f a y China n n n
7 no 63 m h n US n n n
8 no 30 m h y US p n n
9 no 39 m w y S.Afr. p n y
10 no 35 m a n US n n n
.
.
190 no 70 f b y US n n n
111
Practical exercise
Please read the paper provided and then think about the answers to the questions.
3. Was this appropriate to the objective and could any other design have equally well been
used?
4. Were there any important flaws or weaknesses in the study design or its execution?
5. How might these (if any) have affected the results and how might they have been avoided?
10. Do you think the conclusions were justified on the evidence presented?
112
ANNEXURES
OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
(Trigger & Response Mechanisms)
In
IDSP
113
Level 1 (ANM/ MPW)
Serial Syndrome Trigger event Action taken
no
1. Acute watery stools More than 5 cases in 1. Treat with appropriate antibiotics.
1000 population 2. Treat with ORS
3. Refer to PHC if dehydration is
severe.
4. Inform MO PHC
5. Collect water samples and send to
PHC for analysis.
6. OT testing
7. Check TCL stock (bleeching
powder)
8. Train the local person about
chlorination of water.
9. IEC for Community awareness about
safe water and personal hygiene.
2. A ) Fever < 7 days
duration
114
5 cases in 1000 1.Slides for MP with presumptive /RT
a) Only fever population. for malaria
2. Inform MOPHC.
3. IEC for community awareness.
115
PHC for analysis.
7. Check TCL stock.
8. Train local person about water
Chlorination.
9. Community awareness about safe
water and Personal hygiene.
116
Active search of cases with standard
core definition
Stool sample collection
Standard case management
Ensure safe water supply
Inform district authority and ask for
help SOS
IEC
Documentation
Ensure buffer stock
Blood culture for S typhi.
3. Viral hepatitis 2 cases or more of Clinical verification.
jaundice from one Standard case management.
geographical area. Active search of cases.
Ensure Safe Water supply.
Stool samples for virus isolation.
Serological investigation.
Active search for 2nd/3rd trimester
cases with jaundice and keep them
under observation with referral to
district hospital SOS.
Investigation of water Treatment
Plant/pipeline Leakages.
4. Measles Even a single Verify the case through clinical
suspected case manifestation.
Send samples for laboratory testing.
Standard case management.
Active search of cases.
Ring vaccination.
IEC
Vitamin A.
5. Japanese Even a single Verify the information.
Encephelitis suspected case. Clinical confirmation.
Standard case management.
Active search of cases with standard
case definition.
Vector surveillance and control.
IEC
Vaccination as a preventive measure.
Subsequently inform to higher
authority.
Isolation of virus.
Sero-diagnosis
Referral of serious cases to district
117
hospital.
7. DF/DHF Even a single case Verify the information.
of suspected Suspect if clustering of fever cases
DF/DHF from a with M.P. negative slides are found.
community of 1000 Confirmation of outbreak.
population. Standard case management.
Active search of cases with standard
case definition.
House-to-house vector surveillance
for A.. Egypti Larvae.
Fogging/spraying if necessary.
Inform the DHO.
IEC
Empty the coolers, vessels and keep
them dry for 24 hours at least once in
a week.
Remove garbage. (containers etc.)
8. Malaria Even single case Mass survey for fever cases.
is found malaria Microscopic examination within 24
+ ve in an area hours
where malaria Start CRT to all fever cases/all
was not present contacts of +ve cases and all migratory
for minimum population. (in case of single PF case
three months. of indigenous origin is
SPR rise more found)
than double over Focal spraying with synthetic
last three months. pyrethyroid
Single death from Fogging daily X 3 days followed by
malaria (clinical biweekly for 3 weeks.
/microscopically). Larvicidal application
Single PF case of Elimination of mosquitogenic places
indigenous origin. by tempting of water tables, land
filling, channelizing the drains.
Activate DDC/FTD
Involve local bodies and community
by IEC.
Daily surveillance for 3 to 4 weeks.
9. Unusual Hospitalization or Verification of the rumor.
syndromes death of minimum Clinical verification of cases.
causing death or two cases of similar Basic Life Support and emergency
hospital admission illness from same medical care.
geographical area. Refer to appropriate hospital if
necessary.
Active search of cases.
118
Autopsy and preservation of body
fluid and tissues of vital organs for
laboratory diagnosis.
IEC to avoid panic.
Reporting to the higher authority.
119
4 Rapid Response team Visit to the site.
Confirm the outbreak
Std. Case management
Active search of cases with
standard case definition
Ensure safe water supply
Inform State authority and ask
for help SOS
IEC
Documentation
Feedback
120
RRT investigation to confirm
epidemic.
Ring immunization and
effective containment.
Send samples to reference
laboratory.
Standard management of complicated
cases.
IEC
Vitamin A prophylaxis
Feedback
6. Japanese Even a single District Nodal Officer Verifies the
Encephelitis suspected case. information from Medical Officer
PHC/CHC
Confirmation of the outbreak by data
analysis
Analysis of laboratory sample if any.
RRT investigation to confirm
epidemic.
Clinical confirmation.
Standard case management.
Active search of cases with standard
case definition.
Vector surveillance and control.
IEC
Vaccination as a preventive measure.
Subsequently inform to higher
authority and ask for help sos.
Laboratory specimen to reference
laboratory for Virus Isolation.
Sero-diagnosis
IEC
Documentation
Feedback
7. DF/DHF Even a single case District Nodal Officer Verifies the
of suspected information from Medical Officer
DF/DHF from a PHC/CHC
community of 1000 Confirmation of the outbreak by data
population. analysis
Analysis of laboratory sample if any.
RRT investigation to confirm epidemic.
Standard management of complicated
cases.
Active search of cases with standard
121
case definition.
Intensified Vector surveillance house-
tohouse
Foggy/spraying if needed.
IEC
Empty the coolers, vessels and keep
them dry for 24 hours at least once in
a week.
Sero-diagnosis
IEC
Documentation
Feedback.
8. Malaria Even single case District Nodal Officer Verifies the
is found malaria information from Medical Officer
+ ve in an area PHC/CHC
where malaria Confirmation of the outbreak by data
was not present analysis
for minimum Analysis of laboratory sample if any.
three months. RRT investigation to confirm epidemic
SPR rise more Mass survey for fever cases.
than double over Microscopic examination within 24
last three hours
months. Start CRT to all fever cases/all contacts
Single death of + ve cases and all migratory
from malaria population. (in case of single PF case
(clinical/microsc of indigenous origin is found)
opically). Focal spraying with synthetic
Single PF case pyrethyroid
of indigenous Fogging daily X 3 days followed by
origin. Biweekly for 3 weeks.
Larvicidal application
Elimination of mosquitogenic places
by tempting of water tables, land
filling, chanalizing the drains.
Activate DDC/FTD
Involve local bodies and community
by IEC.
Daily surveillance for 3 to 4 weeks.
9. Unusual Hospitalization or District Nodal Officer Verifies the
syndromes death of minimum information from Medical Officer
causing death or two cases of similar PHC/CHC
hospital admission illness from same Confirmation of the outbreak by data
geographical area. analysis
Analysis of laboratory sample if any.
122
RRT investigation to confirm
epidemic
Basic Life Support and emergency
medical care.
Refer to appropriate hospital.
Active search of case.
Autopsy and preservation of body
fluid and tissues of vital organs for
laboratory diagnosis.
IEC to avoid panic.
Reporting to the higher authority.
Documentation
Feedback.
ANNEXURES
For
Outbreak Investigation
And Response
123
1. RUMOUR REGISTER
2. SAMPLE INITIAL REPORT
3. LINE LISTING OF CASES
4. INTERIM OUTBREAK REPORT
RUMOUR REGISTER
Record verbal or written information from lay reporters (community representatives,
Anganwadi workers, teachers) about suspected outbreaks, rumours, or reports of
unexplained events.
Date of Suspected Disease Location No. of Date of 1st No: of deaths Treatment Comments
notification (signs and symptoms if diagnosis cases case centers
is not available)
124
SAMPLE INITIAL REPORT
(For outbreaks caused by water borne diseases)
(to be submitted within a day of the first team reaching the outbreak site)
125
Sr. No. Name of the medicine Approximate Stock
1 Furazolidine
11. 2 Tetracycline
3 O.R.S. packets
4 Ringer’s lactate
5 I.V. Normal saline
6 IV sets
7 Bleaching Powder
8 Halogen tablets
9 Tab. Co-trimoxazole
Presumptive / Final Diagnosis
12. Probable cause of the outbreak
126
17. Details of any control measures instituted:
Similar ones for Vaccine preventable diseases and Vector borne disease may be made. In the former,
details of immunization status need to be included, while in the
latter, details of vector control measures need to be included.
127
LINE LISTING OF CASES
no. name age sex fathers address date symptoms treatment lab outcome exposure comments
name of & received reports to
onset signs risk factor
of
illness
128
INTERIM OUTBREAK REPORT
(FOR OUTBREAKS DUE TO WATER BORNE DISEASES)
(Report to be submitted by RRT within 7 days of reaching the spot)
1. RRT members
4. Is it a high-risk area?
129
11. How was the outbreak detected?
130
15. Probable diagnosis
131
132
23. Cause of the outbreak (Detail information of the reasons of water contamination)
133
10. Details of the treatment :
11. Date and time of death :
12. Place of death (Home / Hosp, etc.) :
13. Whether stool sample was taken ?
(If yes, result)
:
14. Medical Officer’s opinion :
134
ANNEXURES
REPORT WRITING
135
REPORT WRITING
Introduction
When some people write a report, that's all they do: write. But the really successful writers only
spend part of their time doing this, and then only towards the end. Before that, they are planning
their report - thinking about its purpose, and who is going to read it; deciding what to put in it, and
fitting it into shape. And even when they're finally writing it, they'll probably spend just as much
time thinking about how best to present their ideas, as actually putting them onto paper.
This guide draws on the experience of such writers, and describes their step-by-step approach, the
six stages being:
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Materials and structure
Style and presentation
The guide has been devised for you to use as a memory aid once you are back at your desk, and
working on your next report. We hope that you'll find it helpful, and that you -and your readers -
will benefit.
Experienced writers always allow plenty of time for these - the first two stages in report writing,
even when they are working against the clock. They know that once these are clear in their minds,
they'll save themselves hours of work and worry later on.
First, the purpose - the major aim - the reason why you are writing the report at all. This will
determine what kind of report you write.
a) Factual report
For example, it may be to inform - when, say, there's been an accident, or a new programme of
work. What's needed here is a factual report - a straightforward statement of the facts - to give
people an accurate record.
b) Instructional report
Or, it may be to explain - for example, when some change is introduced, like a revised appraisal
system, or a new job evaluation scheme. Here you write an instructional report - a step-by-step
description - to tell people about the new procedures.
c) Leading report
Lastly, it may be to persuade - when you are trying to sell your ideas. This kind is usually called a
'leading' report, because you are leading the reader towards making a decision - the one you want
him or her to make.
Once the major aim has been defined in this way, subsidiary aims will fall into place -thus, we
inform in order to explain, and inform and explain in order to persuade. And usually the result will
be a leading report - which is often the most difficult to write, because it has to motivate the reader
to do something at the end.
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But who is the reader? What do we really know about them? Often, they are just a dim and
shadowy figure in the mind, but we can usually get a clearer picture by asking three questions:
Sometimes, it is difficult to answer these questions, especially when writing for a varied readership.
In such cases, aim for the important reader - that is, the most important to you - but without
offending others. Some are probably only on the distribution list anyway for reasons of prestige or
courtesy, or because no-one remembered to cross them off. They will probably be quite happy just
to read the opening summary (see p.7).
Notice the words 'to persuade' and 'to authorize'. They show that we must produce a logical and
consistent case: one that will spur our reader to positive action. Also, once we have set the
objective, we can usually anticipate the likely problems in meeting it e.g.:
a) Knowledge
The managing director is a busy man, and has never heard of flexible working hours. We’ll need to
give him ample background information, and define any technical terms as we go along.
b) Attitudes
He is a stickler for discipline and good timekeeping. We'll have to convince him that the scheme
won't be a licence for lateness, but that, on the contrary, timekeeping might actually improve.
c) Wants
According to the grapevine, he is worried just now about rising costs. So we'll need to stress how
flexible working hours would actually save him money, even if this means playing down other
benefits.
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Arriving at an objective like this is the most important step in writing any report. Sometimes the
process will even show that a report is not necessary at all, and that the objective can best be met
in some other way - in which case, you will have saved yourself a great deal of time and trouble.
Most writers imagine that their report will be the major event in the reader's day, when, in reality,
the poor fellow is awash with reading matter, drowning in facts, figures, and opinions. What he
wants is easily-digested information, and then only enough to help him reach a decision. So the
content of our report, and its structure, must be very carefully planned.
The two golden rules to follow when deciding what to put into a report are:
a) Simplify, and be ruthless about it. Reject the irrelevant, agonize over the doubtful, and make sure
you've got the essential.
b) Justify your conclusions with facts, and state their sources. Build the facts into a logical and
consistent case, so as to lead the reader to the same conclusions as your own.
Turn a large sheet of paper sideways, and work across it. Work horizontally, so that you can see the
whole plan of your report at one time (see p.6).
First, divide it into major sections. Every subject can be broken down in this way, and the headings
will probably become the headings in your report.
Make a list under each heading of all the points you would like to mention. Note the information
that you'll need to support them.
Now mark the most important points, the essential steps in your reasoning.
Next, mark the least important ones, points your reader would find irrelevant. These you will
probably reject.
The points that remain-the unmarked ones, are the 'doubtful'. Some you may want to use as
examples, or to include in the appendices. But some of these also you'll reject.
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Lastly, arrange the points in a final, logical sequence, so as to meet your objective. Some people
write them out on scraps of paper at this stage, and shift them around until they get the order right.
A plan like this will show you what information you'll need for the body of the report, and what
should go in the appendices. Once written, you draw out your conclusions and add your
recommendations. And last of all, you add your title page, summary, contents list, and introduction.
These eight items make up the conventional structure of a report, dealt with in more detail below.
The following rules and guidelines relate to the conventional structure of a report. Some
organizations lay down their own ('House style').
a) Title page
This normally carries the title, sub-title if any, date, author's name and position, and distribution
list. It may also carry a reference number or other classification (eg, confidential). But don't
overcrowd the page: a clear, simple layout is always the best.
b) Summary
A necessity if the report is a long one. It gives busy people the gist of the report without their
having to read it all; but if attractively written, it may whet their appetite, and stimulate them to
read the whole thing.
c) Contents list
The contents of short reports may be shown on the title page - or not at all. More extensive ones
should always have a separate page, listing the major sections or chapters, sub-sections if any, and
appendices, and giving their page numbers. It should be laid out clearly so as to show the
relationship between them.
d) Introduction
This gives the background to the report, and shows why it was necessary. It usually states the
objective of the report (in formal terms), who called for it, and the scope and treatment. The
shorter it is, the better.
f) Conclusions
Here you draw out the main points of your report and present a considered judgment on them.
g) Recommendations
Finally, set down any recommendations, relating them clearly to what has gone before. In a good
report, the reader is carried along by the argument, so that by the time here aches the end, he'll
need no further convincing.
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h) Appendices
Some reports need detailed supporting information, or perhaps information that only some readers
need. All this goes in the appendices.
k) Glossary or Nomenclature
This can be a help if your readers include non-experts as well as experts. When writing on a
specialist subject for non-experts alone, define any technical terms as you go along.
Having dealt with the four essential stages in planning our report, we can now look at the two
essential aspects of writing it.
1 Style
This is how you write - how any individual writes, so as to convey your thoughts to other people.
But problems may arise, especially if you try to evaluate each word or sentence as you write it.
'That's silly,' you say, or, 'That won't work,' and you end up by blocking the natural expression of
your ideas.
a) Write the first draft to yourself. Just as it comes. Don't evaluate what you are writing: simply
break the spell of that blank, white sheet of paper.
b) Then edit your draft, reading it through the eyes of your reader. In particular:
Clear up any clichés and obvious ambiguities, e.g., '. . . the flooding was caused by the liquidation of
the contractors working on the sewage system.'
Substitute short, simple words where appropriate, e.g., 'start' for commencement', and ‘end' for
'termination'.
Choose words familiar to your reader. Technical terms are a useful shorthand to use with fellow
specialists, but simply cloud the issue for anyone else.
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Use active, rather than passive verbs, eg, 'The Board has approved this project,' rather than
'Approval has been given by the Board for this project.' This is a contentious issue– most scientific
reports tend to be written using the passive form. Ask about the
'House Style' if in doubt.
Follow these rules, and your problems will diminish. In fact, choose the right words, and you’ll find
that they have a happy knack of arranging themselves.
2 Presentations
You may need to use tables, graphs, bar charts, or other diagrams. This is a subject in itself, so ask
your local librarian for some helpful books. (The standard work, but expensive, is Diagrams, by A.
Lockwood, published by Studio Vista.)
Also, remember the old journalistic principle: solid blocks of type weary the eye. Set your report out
generously. Use wide margins; space out paragraphs; and indent subheadings. It will make all the
difference.
Helpful books
Get to know your local reference library and the librarians in charge. They are used to handling
every type of enquiry, and will help you to draw on a wealth of immediately available reference
material, in the shape of encyclopaedias, dictionaries, directories, handbooks, year-books, statistical
returns, abstracts, etc. They are also able to draw on the help of other, specialist, libraries and
information services, many of which are not known to the general public.
For anyone wanting to know more about the actual job of report writing, we recommend the
following:
A writer's friends
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There are also a number of books which should be by your side whenever you write a report. We
have limited the list below to those in paperback or inexpensive hardback editions:
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ANNEXURES
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Guidelines for Reviewing
Here are nine things you should consider as you examine the manuscript and write your review:
Look for the "intellectual plot-line" of the article. You can do this from first skimming through
the manuscript and then giving it a once-over read. As you do this, ask the five major questions
that are central to the research review process:
1. What do the researchers want to find out?
2. Why is that important to investigate or understand?
3. How are the researchers investigating this? Are their research methods appropriate and
adequate to the task?
4. What do they claim to have found out? Are the findings clearly stated?
5. How does this advance knowledge in the field? How well do the researchers place their
findings within the context of ongoing scholarly inquiry about this topic?
Look at the organization of the article. Can you find answers to the above questions quickly and
easily? Can you trace the logic of investigation consistently from the opening paragraphs to the
conclusion?
Then go back to the opening paragraphs of the article. Are the research questions specifically
stated? Is it clear what the authors want to find out? Do they make the case that this is an
important area for research inquiry?
The next section is usually a review of the existing research literature on this topic. Do the
authors present a convincing line of argument here--or does it appear that they are just name-
dropping (citing sources that may be important, without a clear underlying logic for how they
may be important)? Do the authors focus on ideas, or merely on discrete facts or findings? Have
they given sufficient attention to theory--the cumulative attempts at prior explanations for the
questions they are investigating? Are the research questions or hypotheses clearly derivative of
the theory and the literature review? In short: How well do the authors set the stage for the
research problem they are reporting?
The methods and procedures section is usually next; and this is where neophyte reviewers
often start (unwisely) to sharpen their knives. The selection of methods by which the
researchers collect data always involve compromises, and there are few studies that cannot be
criticized for errors of commission or omission in terms of textbook criteria for research design
and data collection procedures. You could focus on three questions here:
1. Do the authors clearly describe their research strategies? Do they present sufficient
detail about the sample from which they have collected data; the operationalization of
measures they have attempted to employ; and the adequacy of these measures in
terms of external and internal validity? In addition, there should be no surprises here:
The measures should be clearly matched to the research questions or the hypotheses.
2. Are their choices of methods adequate to find out what they want to find out in this
study? Would other methods provide a substantial improvement; if so, would
employing these methods be feasible or practical?
3. Do they provide some justification for the methods they have chosen? Does this appear
to be adequate?
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The section presenting research results is surely the heart of the article--though not its soul
(which the reader should find in the opening paragraphs and in the discussion section).
Reviewers might consider four questions here:
1. Does the results section tell a story--taking the reader from the research questions
posed earlier to their answers in the data? Is the logic clear?
2. Are the tables and figures clear and succinct? Can they be "read" easily for major
findings by themselves, or should there be additional information provided? Are the
authors' tables consistent with the format of currently accepted norms regarding data
presentation?
3. Do the authors present too many tables or figures in the form of undigested findings?
Are all of them necessary in order to tell the story of this research inquiry; or can some
be combined? Remember that tables and figures are very expensive (from the
standpoint of the journal) and that undigested data obscure rather than advance the
cumulative development of knowledge in a field.
4. Are the results presented both statistically and substantively meaningful? Have the
authors stayed within the bounds of the results their data will support?
The discussion section is where the authors can give flight to their findings, so that they soar
into the heights of cumulative knowledge development about this topic--or crash into the
depths of their CV's, with few other scholars ever citing their findings. Of course few research
reports will ever be cited as cornerstones to the development of knowledge about any topic;
but your review should encourage authors to aspire to these heights. Consider the following as
you evaluate their discussion section:
1. Do the authors present here a concise and accurate summary of their major findings?
Does their interpretation fairly represent the data as presented earlier in the article?
2. Do they attempt to integrate these findings in the context of a broader scholarly debate
about these issues? Specifically: Do they integrate their findings with the research
literature they presented earlier in their article--do they bring the findings back to the
previous literature reviewed?
3. Have they gone beyond presenting facts--data--and made an effort to present
explanations--understanding? Have they responded to the conceptual or theoretical
problems that were raised in the introduction? This is how theory is developed.
4. Do the authors thoughtfully address the limitations of their study?
The writing style is important. Consider the three guidelines for successful communication--to
be clear, concise, and correct---and whether the authors have achieved it:
1. Is the writing clear? Do the authors communicate their ideas using direct,
straightforward, and unambiguous words and phrases? Have they avoided jargon
(statistical or conceptual) that would interfere with the communication of their
procedures or ideas?
2. Is the writing concise? Are too many words or paragraphs or sections used to present
what could be communicated more simply?
3. Is the writing correct? Too may promising scientists have only a rudimentary grasp of
grammar and punctuation that result in meandering commas, clauses in complex
sentences that are struggling to find their verbs, and adjectives or even nouns that
remain quite ambiguous about their antecedents in the sentence. These are not merely
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technical issues of grammar to be somehow dealt with by a copy-editor down the line.
Rather they involve the successful communication of a set of ideas to an audience; and
this is the basis of scholarship today.
Your evaluation to the editor: Should this paper be (a) rejected for this journal? (b) or does it
show sufficient promise for revision, in ways that you have clearly demonstrated in your review,
to encourage the authors to invest weeks and months in revision for this journal?
Your bottom-line advice to the editor is crucial. Make a decision; state it clearly (in your
confidential remarks to the editor on the page provided).
Remember that only a few of the articles submitted to a journal will result in publication. Rates
vary from 5% to 25% of initial submissions.
(a) The research questions have already been addressed in prior studies;
(b) The data have been collected in such a way as to preclude useful investigation;
(c) The manuscript is not ready for publication--incomplete, improper format, or error-ridden.
Most rejected articles do find a home in other journals. Don't tease authors with hopes for
publication in this Journal if you feel it is not likely.
A bad review is superficial, nasty, petty, self-serving, or arrogant. It indulges the reviewer's
biases with no justification. It focuses exclusively on weaknesses and offers no specific
suggestions for improvement.
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Criteria for manuscript review
PREPARATION
Look at the questions below. You'll answer these in the Impressions Table in Step 4. Keep them in mind as
you read articles and you will increase the number of reviews your write:
Of course, these questions pre-suppose some expertise, but the standard is not so tall that well meaning
readers should avoid doing reviews. Many of us are innately equipped to spot poor grammar, spelling and
punctuation; to detect jerky flow and difficult-to-understand expressions; to recognize wit or the author's
skill with metaphors and similes, both of which add interest and insight to the writing. We may be less skilled
to detect inaccuracies, yet the last question, usefulness, often overcomes this insofar as a fair review is
concerned.
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STEP-BY-STEP INSTRUCTIONS
These instructions begin with the creation of a document that will house your review as you build it. Any
capable word processor is suitable (there's a free word processor at Google Docs with the further benefit of
on line storage and access). The instructions presuppose that you have an interest in the article's topic, your
motivation for reviewing it.
Open a new document and position its window to capture your keystrokes. Save the empty document with
an appropriate name, like Review-PricingTips.
Scan the chosen article and author's profile to identify and enter the following in your review window;
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1 2 3 4
(C) How did the spelling Undetectable Only one Evident but OK Should be
and grammar mistakes corrected
affect the read?
(G) How useful was the Totally Relevant Useful for many Some useful points One thing of
content to you? value
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5. Step Five - Copy & Paste
Copy & paste the complete standard phrases (those between the red cut marks) list below into your
document. Using your question and answer notes, delete the question headers as well as the three answers
responses that you did not select.
(A) UNDERSTOOD
1 - EXCELLENT – The author’s line of reasoning was crystal clear
2 - GREAT – The author’s position and argument was easily understood
3 - GOOD – The author presented an orderly explanation of the concepts
4 - AVERAGE – The author presented sufficient information to understand the concepts
(B) INTERESTING
1 - EXCELLENT – and it was an invigorating read.
2 - GREAT – and it was an absorbing read.
3 - GOOD – and it was a interesting read.
4 - AVERAGE – and it was a satisfying read.
(D) SPEED
1 - EXCELLENT – [Author's surname]’s engaged a graceful writing style
2 - GREAT – [Author's surname]’s engaged a polished writing style
3 - GOOD – [Author's surname] engaged a smooth writing style
4 - AVERAGE – [Author's surname]'s writing style was acceptable
(E) CLEVER
1 - EXCELLENT – with the [sharp/clever/witty/graphical] inclusions bringing a real effervescence to the
reading experience.
2 - GREAT - with the [sharp/clever/witty/graphical] inclusions making for a delightful reading experience.
3 - GOOD – with the [sharp/clever/witty/graphical] inclusions adding significantly to the reader interest.
4 - AVERAGE - with the [sharp/clever/witty/graphical] inclusions being satisfactorily handled.
(F) ACCURATE
1 - EXCELLENT – I am [very, reasonably, quite] knowledgeable about this subject and believe that the content
was without fault.
2 - GREAT – I am [very, reasonably, quite] knowledgeable about this subject and I am in general agreement
with all the Author’s stated positions.
3 - GOOD – I am [very, reasonably, quite] knowledgeable about this subject and find no issue with the
content.
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4 - AVERAGE – I am [very, reasonably, quite] knowledgeable about this subject and some question remain
concerning some of the Author’s statements.
(G) USEFUL
1 - EXCELLENT – [and/but] it was totally relevant and applicable to me.
2 - GREAT – [and/but] I believe that it would be very useful for many that are interested in this topic.
3 - GOOD – [and/but] the author made some good points that others might find useful.
4 - AVERAGE – [and/but] the author makes a good point about [.............].
(H) OVERALL
1 - EXCELLENT – Overall, I rate this article as a brilliant read that I would highly recommend to my friends.
2 - GREAT - Overall, I would rate this article as a great read of high merit.
3 - GOOD – Overall, I would rate this article as a good and worthwhile read.
4 - AVERAGE – Overall, I would rate this article as an acceptable read.
Source: http://knol.google.com/k/peter-baskerville/how-to-quickly-write-a-basic-article/14j3i4hyjvi88/27#
COMMUNITY
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A community can be thought of in relation to common interests, in which groups
share certain goals, objectives, roles, priorities or views in common.
This might be based on common geographic location, or social, cultural or
religious affiliations.
Types of Communities
Communities can be classified as:
ƒ Geographic (an urban mass; scattered rural dwellings; temporary homes built alongside railroad
tracks.)
ƒ Religious/ethnic/political
ƒ Socio-economic (caste/class)
ACTIVITY – 1
Understanding the community
To do this you must:
Identify opinion leaders and have informal discussions with them and with street children.
Get to know the profile of the community to identify any special features which will influence their
involvement.
Find out how they feel about the activities you want to introduce.
Find out if they agree with the proposals.
Determine any conflicting interests.
Exercise is taken from a WHO module in which the investigator wants to Work With Street Children
regarding substance Use, Sexual and Reproductive Health including HIV/AIDS and STDs.
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Learning Activity
Understanding the community.
The lemon game.
With the help of a facilitator or trainer:
Obtain lemons or any available fruits and put them in a basket.
Each participant must pick a lemon from the basket and look at it very briefly (first picking).
Each participant must then put the lemon back into the basket.
Each participant must try to pick their lemon from the basket and look at it a little longer than the
first time (second picking).
What
Each does the
participant community
should put the think
lemonabout
back substance use? How many adults use substances of
into the basket.
Eachsome kind? must pick his/her lemon from the basket (third picking).
participant
What
By the ‘third does the community
picking’ think about
each participant must be sexual
ableand reproductive
to identify health
his/her lemon.and HIV/AIDS/STDs
among street children? Do they think street children should be helped?
What activities do members of the community think are appropriate for boys and girls? Do
The facilitatorpeople in the
will then askcommunity
those who feel
weredifferently
not able to towards
identifystreet
theirgirls and to
lemons street boys?
explain why they
What are the major ethnic groups in the community? What are their
failed to do so. Afterwards, the facilitator will ask those who identified their lemons to explain views on working
children, on families, on substances,
why it was easier for them to pick out their lemon. and reproductive health?
How does the community view people who work with street children?
How
The facilitator does the
or trainer willlocal government
conclude with anview street children
explanation which isand thoseinwho
offered thework with
trainer tipsthem? Do
government officials feel
regarding the learning points of this game. any responsibility to become involved with street children?
Are there laws that prevent children from living or working on the streets? Are there laws that
To understand prevent or restrict you
the community street educators
must exercisefrom working
patience andwith
get street
to knowchildren?
the
community wellAre there international
by making several development
contacts. agencies in your area? How does the community view
these agencies?
Field visit.
Have children lived or worked on the streets during other times in the history of your
community?
At what age does the community believe that children should begin earning? At what age
are they expected to live away from their parents? Is the age different for girls and boys?
What are the major religions in the community? What are their beliefs about children,
poverty, suffering, and helping others?
What religious beliefs do street children in your community hold? Do they participate in
religious ceremonies, rituals or festivals?
Source:
Page 4-5 department of mental health and substance dependence Geneva, Switzerland working with street children module
9involving the community a training package on substance use, sexual154
and reproductive health including HIV/aids and stds
world health organization mental health determinants and populations department of mental health and substance
dependence Geneva, Switzerland
Community Involvement and Communication
155
[Example on immunization]
Community role in supporting immunization
Attempt to involve the community, as much as possible, in each phase of the immunization program-
planning, implementation and evaluation.
Planning: HWs should consult communities about service locations and timing to ensure a convenient
service (e.g. shifting vaccination hours from mornings to afternoons in areas where mothers are busy in the
fields in the morning).
Evaluation: Community leaders can contribute by responding to questions about the quality of services.
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Steps for involving the community
Step 1: Identify the key stakeholders in the community and where they are located. These could be:
Governmental departments and Staff (Health, ICDS, Education, District/ Block Administration, PRI)
NGOs and local organizations (Nehru Yuva Kendra, National Service Scheme)
Professional Associations (Indian Medical Association, Indian Association of Paediatrics)
Community (Parents, Village Health and Sanitation Committee, caste and religious groups, SHGs)
Private and traditional health practitioners
Media
Step 2: Conduct a situation analysis
Identify well performing and poor performing areas in terms of data on vaccination session
attendance and local coverage levels
o Assess through meetings, small group discussions or discussions with opinion leaders (See
Appendix 7.1)
o Community awareness and perceptions about immunization services
o Perceived barriers to immunization (related to quality of immunization services and the
Community knowledge, attitudes and practices)
o Issues affecting physical access to services (location, frequency, schedule)
o Access by special groups (minorities, migrants etc.)
Explore the problems and possible reasons for left-outs and dropouts. Jointly seek possible solutions.
Assess the current extent of community’s involvement with immunization services and discuss
possible community support.
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158
159
160
Step 3: Establish mechanisms for coordination
Establish a consultative mechanism at the block/PHC level or use existing forums such as the Rogi Kalyan
Samitis to ensure regular coordination between departments and to enlist community support for
immunization services.
Involve representatives of the key stakeholder groups (Listed in Step 1)
Inform the members well in advance and prepare a clear agenda for the meeting including:
o State and district immunization goals
o Current status of immunization in the district and block
o Key challenges and areas requiring support
o Possible roles of stakeholders
o Preparing and implementing a communication plan
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prepare a communication plan as outlined in Table 7.3.
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163
164
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ACTIVITY –2
Exercise on immunization:
Learning Objectives
By the end of the session, participants will be able to:
Identify the types of communities and stakeholders and how they can be
involved in Immunization
List the reasons for left outs, dropouts and fully immunized.
List steps for involving the community and prepare a communication plan
Describe the various communication channels
Session Overview
A. Type of communities and stakeholders and the community role in immunization
B. Reasons for left outs, dropouts and fully immunized (20 minutes)
C. Steps for involving the community and Communication Plans (15 minutes)
D. Channels of Communication (10 minutes)
Group 1 to move to the far corner of the room to represent that they are living in a remote hamlet
without any sub-centre in their village. Outreach sessions are also rarely held in their village. Explain
that their children are examples of one type of left out, i.e. they are hard to reach geographically
and have difficult access to
services. Request that they remain standing and ask them to briefly state some of the reasons why
their children do not get vaccinated. Also ask them to suggest some possible solutions (e.g. have
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more regular outreach sessions, support the mobility of the health worker, etc.) and write their
responses on a flip chart.
4. Now turn to Group 2 and explain that theirs is a large village which is easy to
reach, but that they have many children that have never begun vaccination.
They therefore represents the seconds kind of “left outs”. Ask them to state the
reasons why their children do not go for vaccination (e.g., social inaccessibility as scheduled castes
or tribes, un-empowered poor, migrants, border populations, mistrust of immunization by minority
populations, etc.). Ask them to suggest some possible solutions (e.g. counselling by ASHAs /link
workers, involvement of community leaders, better tracking, etc.) and write their responses on a
flip chart.
5. Now explain to Group 3 that their children started the vaccination schedule but
Have not completed it and no longer go to the session. Explain that their children are drop outs. Ask
them to state why their children dropped out (e.g. lack of information on the vaccination schedule,
vaccines not available on the day they go to the session, unkind treatment by the health worker,
etc.) Ask them for some possible solutions (e.g. counselling by ASHAs/link workers, better tracking,
capacity building of health worker etc) and write their responses on a flip chart.
6. Explain to Group 4 that children in their village are fully immunized. Ask them
Why their children started and continue to go for vaccination. Write their responses on a flip chart.
Possible factors for fully immunized children could be:
Well informed about the value of immunization and schedule
Husbands, mothers-in-law, other influentials are supportive
No significant geographical or convenience barriers
Have time available when services are offered
Have child care for other children
Available services are reliable and friendly
Community leaders visit and encourage immunization
Heard about many child deaths before the immunization program started
Have not had or heard about bad experiences with immunization
Health worker tracks all children
Do not ask the groups to reassemble.
C. Steps for involving the community and Communication Plans
1. Reassemble the groups. With the aid of the Steps for involving the community (Poster 15),
detail out the steps in involving the community.
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2. Explain in detail, the components of a Communication Plan. Ask participants to consult Table
7.3: Sample Communication Plan in the Handbook. Discuss the usefulness of such a plan in
the work places of the participants
been missed.
2. Initiate a discussion on the relative effectiveness of the various communications
Channels that have been listed. Emphasize on the effectiveness of inter-personal
Communication and draw the attention of participants to the 4 key messages
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SUPPORTIVE SUPERVISION
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Step 1: Set Up a Supportive Supervision System
The three main "Rs" for an effective supportive supervision system are as follows.
Right Supervisors:
a core set of supervisors, well-trained on supportive supervision techniques and with updated information
and skills on immunization issues. As the supervisors will be providing on-the-job training to health workers,
it is important that the supervisors are themselves well informed and trained. As an initial step, provide
refresher training for the core supervisors. The training could be on new policies or reporting procedures,
changes to the immunization schedule etc or on supportive supervision techniques and participatory
approaches.
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Right Tools: availability of Supervisory checklists and forms (for recording
observations, recommendations and follow up) and training materials and job
aids (to update skills of health workers during supervision visits).
Right Resources: sufficient mobility, time allocated for supervision and follow-
up.
Regular supportive supervision visits are an integral part of the micro-plan and include
Where to conduct visits: Common criteria that can be used for selecting priority
areas include:
When to conduct visits: Once you have prioritized areas to be visited over the
next quarter/year, prepare a Plan for supervision (See Table 3.3 in Unit 3) with at
least 4-8 visits planned per month. Consider the following issues:
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ƒ Carry checklists and practical tools/Job aids to provide onsite training.
Conduct the visit according to the plan, otherwise inform the health worker in
advance. Analyze your planned visits versus held visits and record the reasons
for not holding any visit as planned (e.g. lack of transport, competing priorities).
The frequency of supervisory visits will vary and poorly-motivated staff, new
health centers, new staff or new responsibilities will require more frequent
supervision.
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Problem-solve and provide feedback:
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ƒ Be specific in explaining the problem. If possible, back it up with facts,
rather than judgment alone.
Identify the cause of the problem by asking “why” repeatedly and having
open dialogue with the staff. Is it due to lack of skills or to an external
factor?
ƒ Do not blame others or blame the system.
ƒ It may sometimes be necessary to seek explanation from other sources
(e.g. community members, data, etc.).
ƒ If you have some bad behaviour to comment on, begin with the positive,
and be specific about weaknesses, rather than simply saying” that was
not well done”.
ƒ Give health workers reasons for their success or failure. Don’t just say
“well done”. Give a reason saying, well done. You correctly read the VVM
and took the appropriate action”. Don’t say “you are wrong” but rather
“there may be problem. The data from your telly sheet do not match the
data in the UIP reporting format. How can this can be corrected?”
Provide on-the-job training: by following the main steps when teaching a skill:
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Record results of supervision
After each supervisory visit, prepare a supervisory report with a file copy. This
report is vital for planning corrective measures as well as for use in future
supervisory visits. The sample Supervisory Visit Report (Table 8.2) summarizes
the key points from a supervisory visit and meeting.
Step 4: Follow-up
Supportive supervision does not end with the conducted visit and you should
plan for follow-up, which may include the following:
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Provide feedback to all stakeholders discussing equipment supply and delivery
problems with higher levels
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Activity 3
Supportive Supervision
Learning Objectives
At the end of the session, participants will be able to:
Compare between approaches to supervision
List key steps for effective supportive supervision
Conduct an effective meeting
Materials
Learning Objectives
Flipcharts and Marker pens
Props as required
Supervision Checklist
1. Divide participants into 4 groups and ask them to read from the handbook
(Pages 121-129). Ask them to list the key points on the flipchart and select a
representative to present to the plenary. Each group would get 15 minutes to
read and prepare the flipchart and 5 minutes each to present to the plenary.
Group 1: Step 1 (Set up a Supportive Supervision System)
Group 2: Step 2 (Plan Regular Supervisory Visits)
Group 3: Step 3 (Conduct Supportive Supervision Visits)
Group 4: Step 4 (Follow Up) and Conducting Effective Meetings
2. Assign the participants to the same groups as in the previous step, distribute the
Supervision Checklist (Handout 8) to each participant and give them the task of
reading it in detail within 20 minutes. Ask participants within the group, one by
one, to read aloud each point in the checklist. Discuss each point in some detail
and ensure that participants have a similar understanding of each point.
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3. Assign groups the task of preparing a role play based on the Supervision
Checklist (Handout 8) within 10 minutes. Each role play would last 10 minutes.
4. Suggest that participants could enact the roles of a Health Worker providing immunization
services, a Medical Officer conducting a supervisory visit to the session, the mother of an infant
beneficiary and an ASHA/AWW. The other scenario could be that of a Medical Officer supervising
the Cold Chain Handlers, LHVs etc.
Arrange the necessary props like vaccine carrier, tally sheet, Immunization cards,
Immunization register, Vaccines, AD Syringes etc. beforehand. The ANM and
mothers should create a scenario where they do several things wrong. The job
of the supervisor will be to find all the mistakes. The difference between the effective and
ineffective supervisors is in how the feedback is provided.
5. At the end of each role play, thank the groups and invite participants to summarize what they
have observed and learnt from the role plays.
Did the supervisor find everything that was done wrong? What was correct or incorrect with the
style of supervision?
Ask the persons playing the role of the ANM in both styles of supervision to describe how they felt
when being supervised during the role play.
Source:
Immunization Handbook for Medical Officers
Routine Immunization Immunization Handbook for Medical Officers Facilitators Guide
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