Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
of Fashion
2019
The State of Fashion 2019
2
2019
The State
of Fashion
Contents
Executive Summary 10
Executive Summary
Industry Outlook 12
Global Economy
Trend 3: Trade 2.0 31
Global Value Chains in Apparel: The New China Effect 34
Consumer Shifts
Executive Interview: Cédric Charbit 48
Trend 6: Now or Never 51
Executive Interview: Jeff Gennette 54
Digital Innovation Made Simple 58
Trend 7: Radical Transparency 60
Dealing with the Trust Deficit 62
Fashion System
Fashion System 70—91
Trend 8: Self-Disrupt 71
The Explosion of Small 74
Trend 9: Digital Landgrab 77
Executive Interview: Nick Beighton 80
Trend 10: On Demand 83
Is Apparel Manufacturing Coming Home? 86
MGFI
McKinsey Global Fashion Index 92—99
Glossary 100
End Notes and Detailed Infographics 102
Foreword
The year ahead is one that will go down
in history. Greater China will for the first time in
centuries overtake the US as the world’s largest
fashion market. It will be a year of awakening
after the reckoning of 2018 — a time for looking at
opportunities, not just challenges. In the US and
in the luxury sector it will be a year of optimism;
for Europe and for struggling segments such as
the mid-market, optimism may be in short supply.
Far-sighted companies will make bold moves in
Thomas Lohr
automation and AI, and will disrupt themselves
before others do it for them. Consumers will
make or break brands based on trust. And global
economic and political trends hover over the
The State of Fashion 2019 marks the third whole picture.
year of an ongoing partnership between The
In short, it’s going to be a bumpy ride. But
Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company,
whatever your role — from boardroom executive
bringing analytical rigour and evidence to better
The State of Fashion 2019
7
Contributors Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank all the members of The Business
of Fashion and McKinsey community for their contribution to
research and participation in our State of Fashion Survey and the
many industry experts, who generously shared their perspectives
during interviews. In particular, we would like to thank: Jessi
Baker, Nick Beighton, Alessandro Bogliolo, Tamsin Blanchard,
Leonardo Bonanni, Karin Brinck, Cédric Charbit, Joann Cheng,
Neliana Fuenmayor, Jeffrey Gennette, Jennifer Hyman, Sanjay
Kapoor, Lisa Lang , Yusaku Maezawa, Darshan Mehta, Ananth
Narayanan, Stephanie Phair, Rachel Scott, Mike Smith, Paulvan Zyl
Imran Amed Achim Berg Anita Balchandani Marco Beltrami and the McKinsey Senior Advisors Adrienne Lazarus, Ali Horowitz,
Colin Henry and John Hooks.
As founder, editor-in-chief and CEO of Based in Frankfurt, Achim Berg leads Anita Balchandani is a Partner in Based in London, Marco Beltrami is
The Business of Fashion, Imran Amed McKinsey’s Global Apparel, Fashion McKinsey’s London office, and leads part of McKinsey’s Apparel, Fashion The wider BoF team have also played an instrumental role in
is one of the fashion industry’s leading & Luxury Practice and is active in all the Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Practice and Luxury Practice. He has supported creating this report — in particular, Vikram Alexei Kansara,
writers, thinkers and commentators. relevant sectors including clothing, in the United Kingdom. Her expertise apparel and beauty companies in the UK Victoria Berezhna, Nick Blunden, Kati Chitrakorn, Emma Clark,
Fascinated by the industry’s potent blend textiles, footwear, athletic wear, extends across fashion, health and and Europe, on topics including strategy, Amanda Dargan, Michael Edelmann, Casey Hall, Yara Heine,
of creativity and business, he began BoF accessories and retailers spanning beauty, department stores and specialty mergers & acquisitions, and retail Chungaiz Mumtaz, Andres Pajon-Leite, Lauren Sherman, Kate
as a blog in 2007, which has since grown from the value end to luxury. As a global retail in Europe and North America. operations. Vartan, Anouk Vlahovic and Yifan Wang.
into the pre-eminent global fashion fashion industry and retail expert, She focuses on supporting clients in
industry resource serving a five-mil- he supports clients on a broad range of developing their strategic responses The authors would like to acknowledge the following McKinsey
lion-strong community from over 190 strategic and top management topics, to the disruptions shaping the retail colleagues for their special contributions to the report creation and
countries and territories. Previously, he as well as on operations and sourcing- industry today, especially in areas such as in-depth articles: Colin Britton, Henna Dattani, Jasmine Vogel,
was a consultant at McKinsey in London. related issues. customer-led digital transformation. Jessica Moulton, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, Laura Gallagher, Mac Muir,
The State of Fashion 2019
8 9
Executive Summary
For fashion players, 2019 will be a year of expressed in last year’s global fashion survey.
awakening. The ones who will succeed will have But even with this more positive backdrop,
to come to terms with the fact that in the new executives are now fully acknowledging the
paradigm that is taking shape around them, some changing nature of the industry, using words such
of the old rules simply don’t work. Regardless of as “changing,” “digital,” and “fast” to describe it.
size and segment, players now need to be nimble, In a year of reckoning, for which the McKinsey
think digital-first and achieve ever-faster speed Global Fashion Index predicts growth of 4 to
to market. They need to take an active stance 5 percent for 2018 (up from 2.5 to 3.5 percent
on social issues, satisfy consumer demands for in 2017), fashion players have begun to look
ultra-transparency and sustainability, and, most proactively at opportunities rather than just
importantly, have the courage to “self-disrupt” focusing on challenges ahead.
their own identity and the sources of their old
The State of Fashion 2019
2019 will be a year of growth of 3.5 to 4.5 percent for 2019, slightly below
2018 growth, predicted at 4 to 5 percent. Optimism
unequal, with most of the growth coming from
luxury and emerging markets in Asia. According
come to terms with the fact “dealing with volatility, uncertainty and shifts
in the global economy” as their primary concern
higher than expected growth supported by
an expansive fiscal policy. Meanwhile, polarisation
that is taking shape around prospects, as could uncertainty over other major
events such as Brexit or the possible onset of a
fashion companies struggle to create any economic
value. The prizes for those who can adapt may be
10
11 11
Industry Outlook Executives describe 2018 with the words “changing,”
“digital,” and “fast”
Exhibit 1:
Top 3 words to describe 2016 2017 2018
the industry
After strong performance in 2018, the industry Still, better industry conditions on Top 3 words; % of respondents who
mentioned word, n=274
will slow slightly in 2019. The McKinsey Global aggregate have brought an overall change First Uncertain Uncertain Changing
Fashion Index predicts industry growth of 3.5 to in attitudes. Now used to uncertainty after 54 53 34
4.5 percent in 2019 compared with a 4 to 5 percent living with it for so many years, in 2018 fashion
estimate for 2018. The weaker forecast reflects executives have begun to think less about survival
economic predictions for slightly slower global and much more actively about their strategic
growth and potential disruption to trade rela- agenda. When asked in the BoF-McKinsey State Second Changing Challenging Digital
tionships. We see Latin America, Middle East and of Fashion Survey to describe the industry, the 31 32 26
Africa and Russia experiencing more economic word that comes to the minds of most executives
and political challenges, which will likely dampen (34 percent) is “changing.” The second and third
consumer spending. Europe is facing a slowdown most common words are “digital” and “fast.”
and US growth may have peaked in 2018. Emerging The implication is that change has become a key
Third Challenging Optimistic Fast
Asia Pacific countries and much of emerging priority among industry leaders, with a particular 29 21 25
Europe, on the other hand, will continue to see focus on digital and speed-to-market.
strong spending growth with more global players
Question: What are the 5 adjectives you
entering these markets. Much of emerging Europe will would use to describe how you feel about
The State of Fashion 2019
the fashion industry in 2018 so far? Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey
for the third straight year. This pessimism could evolving consumer behaviours that are forcing Perceived impact of
2018 trends
be driven by fears of an accelerating trade war industry players to “self-disrupt” (the #1 trend Mobile obsessed
Average rating of respondents (1-10)
as China and the US react to each other’s tariffs, identified by executives for 2019.) Footfall in
uncertainty over how Brexit will play out (still the physical environment continues to decline,
unclear as we go to press), or just a feeling that a which is driving the need for brands and retailers
Start-up thinking
10-year boom is now overdue to tip into recession. to develop their omnichannel strategies. Social
media has an increasingly important voice in
Over the past year, the global fashion Getting personal
dictating consumer demand, and it is helping small
industry has reached new heights. We see growth
brands grow explosively. Across the industry, Sustainability
of 4 to 5 percent in 2018, slightly ahead of our credibility
speed-to-market and responsiveness to consumer
projections for 2018, and a considerable uplift
needs are becoming critical success factors. Predictably
on the 2.5 to 3.5 percent seen in 2017. Better unpredictable
performance has been driven by strong demand When asked to reflect on the importance
Asian trailblazers
for luxury and value brands, sales growth in the of the trends we predicted in last year’s State
US amid tax cuts and growth in emerging markets. of Fashion report, executives identified tech- Globalisation
However, as we describe in the McKinsey Global nology-related issues as their top four choices. reboot
Fashion Index, this recovery has been polarised. Consumer shifts enabled by technology were
Most of the economic gains have accrued to the top particularly salient, with “mobile obsessed” cited
20 “winners,” most notably in the luxury segment, as the most important of the trends we predicted.
Question: Looking back at 2018 so AI gets real
while a growing number of players are struggling The second- and third-most important are far, how much have the following
to create economic value. “platforms first” and “start-up thinking,” trends impacted your business?
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey
12 13
Volatility, uncertainty and shifts in the global economy is Industry Outlook
still foreseen as the industry’s #1 challenge
New
14 15
The State of Fashion 2019
GLOBAL ECONOMY CONSUMER SHIFTS FASHION SYSTEM
01. 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. 08. 09. 10.
Caution Indian Trade 2.0 End of Getting Now or Radical Self-Disrupt Digital On Demand
Ahead Ascent Ownership Woke Never Transparency Landgrab
Downward India becomes a All companies will The lifespan of the Younger In the mobile After years of having Traditional brands As the race to be Automation and
movements in focal point for the need to prepare fashion product generations’ consumer personal data are beginning to the platform of data analytics have
key economic fashion industry contingency plans is becoming passion for social journey, the gap owned and handled disrupt their own choice for both enabled a new
indicators and as its middle- to face a potential more elastic and environmental between discovery by businesses, a business models, customers and breed of start-ups
other potentially class consumer shake-up of global as pre-owned, causes has reached and purchase more distrusting image and offering brands intensifies, to achieve agile
destabilising base grows and value chains. On refurbished, critical mass, has become a consumer now in response to e-commerce made-to-order
The State of Fashion 2019
forces will manufacturing the one hand, repair and rental causing brands pain-point for a expects companies a new breed of players will production. Mass
conspire to create sector strengthens. the apparel trade business models to become more more impatient to reciprocate with small emerging continue to players will begin
a more cautious Fashion players could be reshaped continue to evolve. fundamentally fashion consumer, radical transparency brands that are innovate by adding to experiment next,
mood. With the must redouble their by new barriers, Fashion players will purpose driven who seeks to and sharing of accelerating thanks profitable value- responding more
possibility of a efforts in this highly trade tensions increasingly tap to attract both purchase exactly information. For to decreasing added services. rapidly to trends
global economic fragmented and and uncertainty into this market consumers and the products companies to brand loyalty and Whether through and consumer
slowdown by 2020, challenging market and, on the other to gain access to talent. Consumers they discover, meet a new bar for a growing appetite acquisitions, demands,
companies will turn where an educated hand, by new new consumers from some, but immediately. consumer trust, they for newness. investments or achieving just-in-
more prudent and and tech-savvy opportunities from seeking both not all markets Players will focus will need to offer a We expect more internal R&D, time production
start to look more demographic rub growing South- affordability and a will reward players on bridging this heightened level of brands to follow those players who and reducing
aggressively into shoulders with the South trade and move away from that take a strong gap through transparency along suit on this path diversify their overstock and
opportunities to poor and upwardly the renegotiation of the permanent stance on social shorter lead dimensions such of self-disruption, ecosystem will making short,
boost productivity mobile. trade agreements. ownership of and environmental times, improved as value for money, which will have a strengthen their small-batch
compared to clothing. issues beyond availability creative integrity significant impact lead over those production cycles
previous years. traditional CSR. of advertised and data protection. on their operating who remain pure the new norm.
products and new models. players relying
technologies such solely on retail
as visual search. margins.
690m 4x
Percentage of survey Projected number of Percentage of survey Percentage of The number of times In 2018, customers Percentage of survey Top ranked trend that Revenue CAGR of Aspiration level for a
respondents that were smartphone users in respondents that survey respondents the word “feminist” is of Amazon in the US respondents that cited fashion executives fashion e-commerce shift to nearshoring
concerned about India by 2022, 2.3x believe changes in that believe the forecast to appear on expected deliveries “consumer needs predict will shape retailers over traditional will double between
the overall global the usage in 2017. trade policy will pose pre-owned business retailer homepages within 24 hours, for trust in product the fashion industry fashion retailers from 2018 and 2025.
macroeconomic potential risks to global model will be more and newsletters in 2018 as opposed to a authenticity and creative in 2019, included 2013 to 2017.
outlook in 2019. economic growth relevant in 2019 than compared to 2016. 9-day delivery time originality” in their top in top 5 by 80% of
(Q2 2018 sentiments, in 2018. expectation in 1995. 5 trends for 2019; respondents.
+8% from Q1). ranked 2nd out of 12.
16 17
Global
01. CAUTION AHEAD
Economy
A potential turn in the economic cycle is
prompting concern among industry executives
over prospects for the coming year. Following
a prolonged period of growth and rising costs,
strategic priorities for the subsequent period
are likely to focus more on being nimble and
boosting productivity.
The State of Fashion 2019
While last year was characterised by cautious In addition, advanced economies are
optimism in the face of uncertainty, this year struggling to lift labour productivity, which has
various indicators point towards clouds on the remained basically flat over the past eight years,
horizon which could somewhat dampen global dampened by after-effects from the financial crisis,
economic growth prospects. Global growth has while significant advances in automation and
averaged above 2.5 percent in the years since the digitisation come with lag effects and transition
financial crisis, but there are signs of a plateau.1 cost. China and India have bucked the global
Additionally, after a long period of accommoda- trend and continue to see sharp productivity
tive monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve and increases, measured by GDP per person employed.
other central banks are starting to raise interest (Productivity growth and increases in the number
rates, increasing the cost of borrowing for many of employed people are the key drivers of
companies and consumers. The European Central economic growth.)
Bank is also signalling tightening monetary policy
These official forecasts are also reflected
in the coming months, increasing the chance that
in sentiment among industry leaders. In a survey
global economic growth could start to slow.
of more than 1,000 international executives and
Forecasts from the World Bank, chief executives across industries published by
IMF and OECD predict slower growth in developed McKinsey in September 2018, some 41 percent
markets through 2020, and a flattening of the expect global economic conditions to worsen,
growth curve in developing markets. Looking compared with 35 percent in June 2018 and just 15
Frédéric Soltan/Corbis via Getty Images ahead to 2019, there are signs that Europe, percent in December 2017.2 This sentiment echoes
Latin America and the Middle East could be the views of the IMF, whose managing director
most vulnerable to a deceleration. The US and Christine Lagarde said during a Bretton Woods
China could also face a slowdown, with fears of a Committee meeting in October 2018 that “It’s not
potential bubble in the former, and trade dynamics just clouds on the horizon that we see, but some of
could impact consumer spending and fashion the clouds have started opening up, and it’s a bit
sector growth in both. more than a drizzle.”3
18 19
Global Economy 01. Caution Ahead
None of this has gone unnoticed in period. Several companies have already taken percentage points respectively), compared over the longer term, fashion players should
the fashion industry. Executives view economic steps, implementing cost reduction and restruc- with those in the bottom 80 percent, suggesting seek to couple productivity enhancements with
conditions as a potential challenge, citing it as turing programmes. As a result, SG&A ratios have a strong link between keeping costs low and a necessary innovation efforts, such as automation
the third biggest trend for 2019 in the latest become more fragmented, with leading companies strong bottom line. of production, analytics-driven decision making,
BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey. Forty-two seeing a slower rate of cost increase than laggards. review of omnichannel footprint and reorganisa-
As the macroeconomic landscape
percent expect industry conditions to worsen in Among companies to act are hosiery and bodywear tion for better agility. Those that are successful are
shifts, we expect companies will seek to protect
2019. Excluding respondents from North America specialist Wolford, which launched a restructur- most likely to reap rewards in terms of outsized
themselves from slower growth by implementing
and the luxury segment, which are the main ing programme in late 2017,4 J.Crew, which said performance.
“shock proofing” measures. These will primarily
pockets of optimism, the majority of executives in 2017 it aimed to cut costs and rebrand,5 and
be aimed at boosting productivity through
are even more pessimistic about the year ahead. H&M, which said in 2017 that it was aiming to
greater efficiency and cutting costs. To ensure
reduce costs by 5-6 percent.6 More recently, Under
these interventions deliver sustainable benefits
“It’s not just clouds on the Armour announced plans to continue to focus and
drive productivity in September 2018.7
horizon that we see, but some
of the clouds have started Looking at the year ahead, 17 percent of Among executives of all industries, there’s an increasing view that the
respondents to the BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion
opening up, and it’s a bit more Survey said they would focus more on improving
economy will worsen
than a drizzle.”
The State of Fashion 2019
brand building.
conditions as a potential challenge, Moderately better 23
20 21
Executive Interview 01. Caution Ahead
22 23
02. INDIAN ASCENT 02. Indian Ascent
India is increasingly a focal point for the country of 1.2 billion people and only 45 million
using the Internet.12 These figures have since
labour cost is significantly lower than China’s and
comparable with Vietnam’s. There is also a high
fashion industry, reflecting a rapidly growing increased to 355 million and 460 million respec- availability of raw materials (e.g., cotton, wool, silk,
tively (2018) and are expected to double by 2021, and jute), which enable participation in the entire
middle-class and increasingly powerful when more than 900 million Indian consumers fashion value chain.
manufacturing sector. These, together with will be online.
Still, players looking to enter the
E-commerce leaders are moving to Indian market should recognise several inherent
strong economic fundamentals and growing AI-based solutions. “Personalisation and curation, challenges. First, India is a mosaic of climates and
tech-savvy, make India too important for based on personal taste will become a lot more
important,” says Ananth Narayanan, chief
tastes. “If you break [India] up into four parts, i.e.,
north, east, south and west, North India is the only
international brands to ignore. executive of Myntra, a fashion e-commerce player region which is going to have winter, where you
acquired by Flipkart in 2014. “It’s not about having have mild to severe winter for eight weeks,”
the largest selection, it’s about presenting the most says Kapoor.
appropriate selection to the customer involved.”
“Brands that are successful in India have
The supply side of the industry is equally understood that, how [Indians] consume, what
robust, and the growth of textile and apparel colour they consume, what kind of designs work,
The State of Fashion 2019
Economic expansion is happening across Asia, good, happy to feel good and are expanding the exports is expected to accelerate. According what touch points and personalisation work may
but we expect that 2019 will be the year in which consumption of today.” to a 2017 McKinsey survey, 41 percent of chief be very different from a consumer living in New
India will take centre stage. The country is being procurement officers expect to increase their York or Hong Kong,” Kapoor adds. “Indian women
Given these dynamics, it is little surprise
propelled by strong macroeconomic tailwinds sourcing share from India.13 India’s average have kept a lot of their traditional sensibilities alive
that more than 300 international fashion brands
and is predicted to grow 8 percent a year between
are expected to open stores in India in the next two
2018 and 2022. The Indian middle class is forecast
years. But India remains a complex market, which
to expand at 19.4 percent a year over the same
presents challenges as well as opportunities.
period, outpacing China, Mexico and Brazil.8
The apparel business is still largely “unorganised,”
As a result, India is set to move from being an
with formal retail accounting for just 35 percent of
increasingly important sourcing hub to being one
sales in 2016. Its share is likely to reach around 45
of the most attractive consumer markets outside
percent by 2025,10 still a relatively low proportion.
the Western world.
To build momentum around conventional
India’s apparel market will be worth $59.3
stores, Indian players are innovating the retail
billion in 2022, making it the sixth-largest in the
experience. Retailers are leveraging technology
world, and comparable to the UK ($65 billion) and
to enhance the in-store experience with digital
Germany ($63.1 billion), according to data from
marketing displays and improved check-out.
McKinsey’s FashionScope. The aggregate income
For instance, Madura Fashion & Lifestyle launched
24 25
Global Economy 02. Indian Ascent
and you see a beautiful mix of both Indian and and the middle class is at its highest level in 92
Western sensibilities across the spectrum.” years.18 Another consideration is the possibility Of the top emerging markets, India’s GDP is expected to grow at the
of corruption. According to Transparency
International companies considering
International, India ranks 81stout of 180 countries
highest rate
an entry into India should heed this important
on its Corruption Perception Index (versus China
message. Traditional clothing is still very much the
at 77).19 A significant number of licences is required
default choice for women, making up an estimated Exhibit 6:
for new entrants, so executives should beware of
70 percent of women’s apparel sales in 2017.
the potential for complicated negotiations. India powers ahead of other major emerging markets
Appetite for Western styles is likely to increase,
but it is expected that traditional wear will still Still, many brands are determined to Real GDP CAGR 2018-22 forecast, %
account for a 65 percent market share by 2023.14 take advantage of India’s blossoming growth.
The majority are likely to choose one of three
“We are moving on towards the routes. First, players can partner with existing
e-commerce platforms. This is most suitable India 8.0
‘gold collar’ worker. It’s a term for players with little brand awareness and with
that defines the well paid, highly relatively low capital to invest, and offers a good China 6.1
paid professionals, who are way to test demand and customer preferences.
3.7
The State of Fashion 2019
26 27
Executive Interview 02. Indian Ascent
28 29
Executive Interview 03. TRADE 2.0
wealth, I am able to have access understanding do Western
to that because those pockets of executives now have of the
wealth may still not be ready for Indian luxury consumer?
a fully-fledged store, [but] the
customers that exist in the town
DM: The singular mistake that
they make is that the European
Companies should make contingency plans
can still shop through my store.
mindset comes from a few for a potential shake-up of global value chains.
centuries of inherited riches.
BoF: Reliance recently upped
its stake in Genesis Luxury
In India we’re now looking at The apparel trade could be reshaped by new
the first wave of what I call first
Fashion, the Indian group
that distributes brands like
generation wealth, which spends barriers, trade tensions and uncertainty.
Bottega Veneta, Giorgio
very differently than inherited
wealth. On the one hand, it is a However, there may also be new opportunities
Armani, Michael Kors and
Coach and has a joint venture
very rich and powerful consumer
movement because new wealth
from growing South-South trade and the
with Burberry for the Indian
market. Does Reliance have
has an innate need to announce
itself in many ways and fashion
renegotiation of trade agreements.
ambitions to become a luxury
is clearly one of the ways. Yet,
conglomerate along the lines
on the other hand, first genera-
of an Indian LVMH?
tion wealth also has very sharp
DM: We’re certainly not trying and recent memory of how that
to clone anyone else. When wealth was created and hence Fashion is inherently sensitive to the policies Still, while the US and China are
The State of Fashion 2019
the Genesis opportunity came, they spend differently because it and politics that shape cross-border trade. raising tariffs against each other, China is at the
we knew that they had a whole is the wealth creator [himself or Recent talk of trade shifts between the US and same time trying to make some imports cheaper.
bunch of private equity players herself ] who is spending it. some of its key trading partners has brought the A Chinese government decision to cut import
who were not so strategic in their Second, because geographically issue to the fore. At the same time the axes of duties led LVMH to reduce prices by 3-5 percent
approach. We saw a good oppor- we are juxtaposed to China, every global trade are shifting, amid a surge in commerce in July on some items sold in China.22 In September
tunity when L Catterton wanted time you look at India through between emerging economies in the Global South. 2018, China announced it would reduce tariffs for
to exit and bought out all the the Chinese lens you will not The dynamics may lead to a rethink of sourcing textiles and construction materials from 11.5 to 8.4
other private equity players. see [the opportunity] correctly. and pricing strategies in the year ahead. percent. Any reduction of tariffs usually must be
[Genesis Luxury founder] Sanjay India is a whole different ball offered to all countries equally under World Trade
Kapoor had created a good pool game. In India, it is not about As 2018 ends, fashion companies find
Organization rules, but China said US goods would
of talent, a good entrepreneurial the traditionally rich Indians — themselves in a cross current of trade-related
still be subject to retaliatory tariffs.
ecosystem, some high-quality they shop all over the world. It news flow. A sharp rise in trade tensions between
real estate, and a great brand is about the 999 others who are the US and other large economies seems set to Despite some of the positive develop-
portfolio, all of which sat well the customers of tomorrow, who increase costs for some players and increase the ments in trade, the dominant theme over 2017
[with us]. We will never be will find it too intimidating to go risk of disruption. At the same time, new trade has been tightening of trade conditions between
predatory in nature, so having into the five-star hotel lobby or a
agreements promise better trading conditions in specific partners. For the G20 economies, there
bought the first 40 percent gallery to shop there. So [former
certain instances. were $74 billion of restrictive measures in May
[stake] our intention was to sit as Burberry chief executive] Angela
a new partner along with Sanjay Ahrendts came and took the 2018, compared with $47 billion in May 2017, a
In the US, the fashion industry accounts
and his other partners to create bold decision to set a Burberry rise of 58 percent. Trade-facilitating measures,
for 6 percent of imports but pays 51 percent of
more value. opposite a Zara store [because] which include eliminating or reducing tariffs and
tariff receipts, so the tariffs issue is critically
a woman coming out of the Zara simplifying customs procedures, meanwhile, fell
important.20 In addition, with new tariffs coming
BoF: Through Reliance’s store will feel less intimidated from $163 billion to just $83 billion, a 49 percent
into force on goods from China (including leather
direct partnerships with to go window shopping at the drop.23 Consumers are also noticing more gloomy
clothing, woven fabrics and wool yarn), there is a
brands like Zegna, Diesel Burberry store. trade sentiments: Google searches for the words
and Bally, you have daily direct feed-through to the consumer. Companies
“trade war,” “trade tensions” or “tariffs” are at the
contact with many Western such as Samsonite and Gap, which have large
This interview has been edited and highest level for at least five years, after growing
luxury executives. Generally condensed. manufacturing operations in China, have said they
by a factor of 10 this year.24 The IMF, meanwhile,
speaking, how good of an plan to raise their consumer prices.21
30 31
Global Economy 03. Trade 2.0
predicts rising tariffs and the ensuing escalation Against this backdrop in Europe, time to come, as described in our article “Global and production quality, for example through
of trade tensions could reduce global economic the US fashion sector is also facing trade-related Value Chains in Apparel: The New China Effect” near-shoring or even on-shoring. Still, tough
growth by 0.5 percent by 2020. risks. According to the United States Fashion on page 34. commercial decisions will be required in the
Industry Association’s 2018 Fashion Industry face of tariffs in key consumer markets. Luxury
Perhaps unsurprisingly, executives are While concern over trade tensions is
Benchmarking Study, “protectionist trade policy players, especially those that derive most of their
becoming concerned, and increasingly cite trade rising, there are also positive dynamics, with new
agenda” in the US is the number one business income from China or the US, may be required
relations as a major worry for the coming year. agreements being put in place and new trade routes
challenge. Before 2017, it never ranked higher to choose between raising prices or managing
McKinsey’s Economic Conditions Snapshot in being developed. The EU has recently entered into
than eight. The US has announced tariff hikes squeezed margins.
September was the second in a row in which trade new agreements including clothing and apparel
on $200 billion of goods from China including
policy was cited as a threat to global economic with Canada, Mexico, Japan, Singapore, Vietnam
clothing. To highlight the proactive stance taken
growth. 62 percent of respondents said it was and several countries from Eastern Europe.
by some fashion players, American Apparel &
their number one concern, up from 56 percent in In September 2018, Canada agreed to join the
Footwear Association (AAFA) at the end of May
March 2018. United States and Mexico in a trade deal that
published a letter signed by 60 US labels (including
will replace the North American Free Trade Exhibit 7:
Abercrombie & Fitch, Kate Spade, Levi Strauss,
63 percent of clothing designers Agreement.30 Belief that changes in trade policy will
Macy’s, Nike and Under Armour), arguing against
and 55 percent of UK-based luxury increased taxation of Chinese textile and In addition, South-South trade is on pose potential risks to global economic
goods makers are involved in apparel imports. the rise, amid expectations it will increase from growth
around 25 percent of global trade at present to
exports and around 10,000 EU
The State of Fashion 2019
body formed to advise the UK government on decrease between now and 2025.28 Overall, we expect trade-related forces
matters relating to Brexit respondents, said that will drive two key dynamics in 2019. Escalating
Trade data shows that these plans are
they felt Brexit would be bad for fashion in the UK trade tensions will see international brands
now becoming reality: a marked and ongoing shift
and EU.25 The prospect of Brexit has also started rethink their sourcing strategies, perhaps to
is underway in the apparel industry’s sourcing
to impact fashion companies in other countries, the benefit of countries involved in newly-nego-
markets, with new emerging markets increasing
particularly those being paid in sterling, which has tiated trade agreements. A further increase in
their share compared to China.29
fallen by around 12 percent against the Euro and South-South trade, especially between emerging
10 percent against the US dollar since the Brexit Still, while China might have passed its APAC countries, is likely. Fast fashion, which
referendum in 2016.26 manufacturing zenith in apparel, it will likely depends on short lead times, will need to find
remain an indispensable sourcing market for some new strategies to maintain delivery speed
32 33
In-Depth 03. Trade 2.0
34 35
In-Depth 03. Trade 2.0
China’s annual “Singles Day” — a one-day burst labour-intensive production to its inland provinces, to the world and improving quality.39 This may personalisation at the same time. Most garment and
of e-commerce that hit an estimated $25 billion where labour costs are much lower. Recently involve shifting some production capacity away shoe manufacturing is not highly automated, but
in sales last year, topping 2016 sales by almost 40 however, even inland wages are rising faster than from apparel and into more complex, synthetic these technologies are maturing and overcoming
percent and surpassing Black Friday and Cyber the rest of the developed world, and Chinese manu- products such as automotive fabrics, disposables, some of their early limitations. Automation
Monday in the United States combined.35 facturing is becoming less competitive. cutting-edge protective wear and medical textiles. technologies should ensure that China remains a
In short, China does not see its future in the powerhouse of global apparel production even as its
More of what gets made in China is now sold in As China’s exports have plateaued, other developing
lowest-margin parts of the value chain, acting as wages rise. In fact, some Chinese apparel makers
China instead of being exported. In 2005, China nations with lower wages are stepping in. Apparel
the factory to the world. It is moving up the ladder are moving to automate quickly — not necessarily
exported 71 percent of the finished apparel goods exports from Bangladesh, Vietnam and Ethiopia
to more valuable production and broadening to save on labour but in pursuit of speed. The robust
it produced; by 2017, that share was down to have been growing by double digits annually since
its focus beyond exporting finished goods to growth of China’s consumer market should not only
just 47 percent. This reflects increasing levels of 2010. Turkey is also a major producer of clothing
advanced economies. help to anchor its apparel industry but should also
consumption in China relative to the world and that is exported to Europe. In a 2017 McKinsey
provide the incentives needed to invest in
also echoes the results of a recent McKinsey & survey, 62 percent of chief purchasing officers at
New Technologies and the Need for Speed high-tech manufacturing.
Company survey, which suggested that three-quar- US and EU apparel companies said they were
ters of Chinese consumers reported preferring or planning to diversify their sourcing away from A limited slice of production could even return to
In addition to the China effect, other factors
somewhat preferring local brands of apparel and China in the near- to medium-term. Bangladesh, advanced economies, although in a very different
are reshaping the apparel industry’s global
footwear over foreign brands.36 Ethiopia, Myanmar and Vietnam emerged as form than the labour-intensive textile factories
footprint, including the need to respond with
the top countries where respondents expect to that closed in the 1990s and early 2000s. Adidas’
This pattern is also beginning to play out in agility to changing customer demand and the rise
increase sourcing.37 widely known “Speedfactories” offer a glimpse
other emerging economies where incomes and of new technologies.
into what the future could hold. Nike has pursued
prosperity are similarly rising, albeit on a smaller While a shift away from China is possible, it has not
a similar strategy with the introduction of its
The State of Fashion 2019
36 37
Consumer
Caution Ahead 04. END OF OWNERSHIP
Shifts
The lifespan of fashion products is being
stretched as pre-owned, refurbished, repaired
and rental business models continue to evolve.
Across many categories consumers have
demonstrated an appetite to shift away from
traditional ownership to newer ways in which
to access product.
In fashion, the shift to new ownership models is in Britain found that one in three young women
The State of Fashion 2019
driven by growing consumer desire for variety, consider clothes “old” after wearing them once
sustainability and affordability and sources or twice.45 One in seven consider it a fashion
suggest that the resale market, for instance, faux-pas to be photographed in an outfit twice.
could be bigger than fast fashion within ten years.43 Simply put, young people today crave newness,
In recognition of this consumer shift, start-ups and these cohorts are much more likely to
will not be the only players making their mark in embrace churn in their wardrobes. At the same
these segments — established fashion brands will time younger generations are more interested
accelerate the pace with which they embrace new in sustainable clothing than older consumers.
ownership models to further their relevance Rental, resale and refurbishment models lengthen
to consumers. the product lifecycle while offering the newness
consumers desire.
In more and more categories, consumers
are choosing to rent rather than own goods Meanwhile, luxury brands are raising
outright. Think of Spotify supplanting CD sales prices, significantly. Prices of fine watches and
and downloads, Netflix replacing video stores jewellery have nearly doubled since 2005.46
and ZipCar standing in for car ownership among Tracking global prices of Louis Vuitton’s Speedy
many young urbanites. This is a fundamental 30 handbag suggests an increase of approxi-
evolution in consumer behaviour and we expect it mately 19 percent per year since 2016.47 So, even
will have an impact in the fashion business in the consumers with six-figure incomes are looking
years ahead. to discounts and alternative models of acquisition
for relief.
This trend is partly driven by the
young generation’s hunger for newness, while
One in seven consider it a fashion
Oscar Wong/Getty Images
38 39
Consumer Shifts 04. End of Ownership
These demands are catalysing the Additionally, because of the circular nature of this between partnerships, in-house development
successes of rental and pre-owned models. We partnership, it bolsters the corporate and social or M&A. Second, we predict a notable increase
expect that the ability of these players to satisfy a responsibility of the fashion brand. in the number of “rental native” brands born
heightened desire for newness and an increased exclusively for rental or subscription models.
Other luxury players, such as Richemont,
unattainability will bring them into the spotlight We would also not be surprised to see a unicorn in
have purchased resale or rental businesses
in 2019. this space soon. Finally, more consumers will see
outright, to take control of how their products and
a growing proportion of their wardrobes made up
Luxury consumers can circumvent the brands are marketed on the secondary market.
of pre-owned or rented products, especially for
price increases of the Speedy 30 bag, for example,
Some players have ventured into refur- high-value items and accessories. While traditional
through The RealReal, which was founded in
bishment, taking advantage of its sustainability players need not yet be alarmed, it will be essential
2011 and, as of May 2018, enjoys a $450 million
benefits. Eileen Fisher, through its programme to fully understand the emerging signals of what
valuation.48 It sells luxury brands, in gently used
“Renew,” takes back gently-worn products, and consumers prefer to own versus rent.
form, via a consignment model. The RealReal’s
either refurbishes them or uses the materials
hook: top fashion brands, up to 90 percent off. It
to create new products all together. Patagonia
recently raised $115 million in a Series G funding
pioneered an in-house repair and resale model
round and plans to expand its brick and mortar
by buying back their own products and selling Exhibit 8:
presence in the US.49
those used items at a discount price. On its website, Expectations on consumer appetite for
The State of Fashion 2019
Patagonia asserts, “The single best thing we can do new ownership models
“The consumer who is more for the planet is keep our gear in use longer and cut
interested in access versus down on consumption.”50 % of respondents
40 41
Executive Interview 04. End of Ownership
why this market works for consumers chandise value] of the amount but all over the world, are via
JH: The way we work with the
JH: The Neiman Marcus partner-
ship was fundamentally, for us,
of product that is exchanged channels like Amazon, Walmart,
who refuse to be ‘ripped off.’ through platforms like Rent H&M, Target, Zara where you
industry has changed dramati-
cally over the past ten years.
about free real estate. We would
rather have our own physical
the Runway, and platforms like go in and you’re buying cheap
We used to have to beg people space that has more square
— by Lauren Sherman The RealReal and thredUP, the
[latter two are] longer-term
clothes where the intention is
to only wear those clothes once
to work with us, and now they footage where we can control the
are coming to us and are really hours and the experience. When
lease models versus a short- or twice.
excited about diversifying all we started our retail strategy
er-term rental model that is Rent
the ways that they work with many years ago, we didn’t have a
the Runway. I put businesses BoF: Who is your customer
us. Designers were under the subscription business so we had
like The RealReal or thredUP today and how has that
impression that they were concepted the store in a different
into the larger market of rental changed over the years?
competing against other way; it would be a place to build
businesses because if you buy
JH: Our customer base today designers. If I was Diane von awareness of Rent the Runway,
a handbag right now with the
represents 76 percent of all zip Furstenberg, I might think give people the ability to try
intention of selling it on The
codes in the United States. Given that I’m competing against things on before they rented it so
RealReal and get a portion of
the segregation that exists in the Tory Burch or Alice + Olivia. that they weren’t fearful about fit.
your spend back, what you’ve
United States, it means we’re Now designers understand Now that we’ve seen the incred-
effectively done is rented that
catering to almost everyone. that they’re competing against ible growth of the subscription
handbag for six months. Rental
We have subscribers who have Amazon and they’re competing business, we’ve seen how a
is about the customer intention
household incomes of $60,000 against Zara. physical footprint can provide
behind the usage of the item.
When we think about the a year, we also have subscribers With our top 100 brands, we’re even more convenience and
with household incomes of over their number one or number two magic to the customer base
42 43
Executive Interview 05. GETTING WOKE
that was in that market. We’re “Now designers understand that
going to be accelerating our
retail footprint throughout the they’re competing against Amazon and
US. We’re launching a series of
Rent the Runway drop boxes in
they’re competing against Zara.” Younger consumers are seriously concerned with
WeWorks in six different cities
across the United States so that Therefore they figure out: ‘where BoF: What do you want to social and environmental causes, which many
our subscribers can walk into
the lobby of a WeWork, drop off
and when do I want to invest in
quality and when am I comforta-
accomplish in the next five
years?
regard as being the defining issues of our time.
inventory clothing that they’ve
already worn and immediately
ble with the low-quality substi-
tutions?’
JH: We believe that this business They increasingly back their beliefs with their
new slots will be opened up for can be a $100 billion company.
We believe that that is applicable shopping habits, favouring brands that are aligned
them of new items that they can
pick from their subscription.
BoF: There are so many
second-hand businesses
all over the world, it’s applicable
in all different kinds of catego-
with their values and avoiding those that don’t.
It’ll make the process of coming up. Do you think the
receiving something new from ries. As we grow, our designer
number of these different brands grow along with us.
us even quicker. services will continue to The closer I’ve got to designers,
increase going forward? the more I really want to put bad
BoF: How much do you think fashion out of business. I think
JH: Anyone could put up a
your consumers care about that it’s egregious how they’ve
website and say, ‘We’re renting
value and to what extent does been copying the intellectual Brands are responding by integrating social and The other half are less dogmatic, tailoring their
Prada.’ There’s no way to
The State of Fashion 2019
it play into their mindset? property of all of these designers environmental themes into their products and decision to the situation at hand.
short-circuit this because in
JH: We need to switch the word for many decades and undercut- services. The benefits of these policies are clear,
order to rent Prada, you have Still, the dynamics behind the numbers
from being value to being smart. to become an expert in reverse ting them. From a sustainability but as the causes that some brands champion
are compelling. Over the past three years a
Consumer Shifts
The average consumer cares logistics, build all of those direct standpoint, there is absolutely venture into controversial territory there are risks
third of consumers worldwide have expanded
about making smart choices, relationships with the designers no reason to fill up our landfills and consequences for those that fail to get it right.
the scope of their purchasing decisions to
[about] not being ripped off. She to actually procure and buy that every single year with all of this
Nine in ten Generation Z consumers incorporate principled values and views. A new
is thinking about how often product. Some folks have tried to junk. One-fifth of LVMH Group
believe companies have a responsibility to address global ethos is emerging, and billions of people
she’s going to use something for. do this via second-hand channels; is not thrown into a landfill every
year; it’s one-fifth of H&M. environmental and social issues.53 The inclusion are using consumption as a means to express their
I don’t think that fast-fashion they just procure the inventory of the latter is a departure from the views of the deeply-held beliefs.
is a larger piece of the fashion from second-hand or third-hand
previous generation of millennials, which had a
market. It’s just that they’ve markets. I think that there are This interview has been edited and Signs of this evolving agenda can be
greener focus. The change is reflected in the higher
understood earlier that no one going to be a few very large, very condensed. found beyond consumer sentiment too. Fashion
is going to spend a few hundred profile of social issues, and campaigns such as
dominant players in this market. companies are showing signs of getting “woke”57
dollars or a few thousand dollars #metoo, #blacklivesmatter and #timesup, all of
It could be a winner-takes-all (a phrase defined as “alert to injustice in society,”
on an item that they’re only market or it could be just two or which have entered the mainstream lexicon over
popularised on social media). For example, based
going to wear once or twice. three businesses [that] emerge as the past couple of years.
on a “data scrape” of over 2,000 fashion retailers,
the global winners [but] it’s not The views of Gen Z and millennial the appearance of the word “feminist”
There is a lot more intelligence;
an easy business to copy given consumers are critical. Together, these cohorts on homepages and newsletters increased by a
we know what things cost, we
how difficult it is to do well and represent around $350 billion of spending power factor of more than five from 2016 to 2018.58
can be in a store, we can look up
all of the technology and logistical in the US alone (~$150 billion spent by Gen Z54 and
price comparisons right away.
barriers to setting this up and the Many brands and retailers including Nike
We’re shopping on Instagram. ~$200 billion by millennials)55 and Gen Z alone
amount of capital that you need. and Levi Strauss are on board, and both companies
Within this there’s an appreci- will account for 40 percent of global consumers by
have taken a clear stance on social issues in recent
ation of quality. I think that the 2020. But concern over environmental and social
months — Nike supporting Colin Kaepernick,
consumer does appreciate that issues is not restricted to younger consumers.
the face of the NFL’s “anthem protests,” and
designer clothing and luxury is Some two-thirds of consumers worldwide say they
Levi’s fronting a campaign against gun violence.
of much higher quality than what would switch, avoid or boycott brands based on
Gucci has also supported that cause, supporting
they are buying from Amazon or their stance on controversial issues.56 Half of these
a student-led march calling for more gun control.
what they’re buying from H&M. regard themselves as activists, driven by passion.
44 45
Consumer Shifts 05. Getting Woke
And American designer Jeremy Scott appeared at numbers of B-Corporations, which are certified actions. In 2018, Primark was severely criticised some customers, the calculation, of course, is that
his New York Fashion Week show with a T-shirt to have considered the impact of their decisions and called “unethical” for releasing a line of Pride- the loyalty rewarded by its remaining customers
urging, “Tell your senator no on Kavanaugh,” in on people, society and the planet. Companies themed T-shirts which were produced in Turkey, a matters more.
reference to the then-embattled US Supreme Court including Danone, Ben & Jerry’s and Patagonia country which is ranked third-worst in Europe for
justice, undergoing confirmation hearings.59 are B-certified. In the fashion, apparel and beauty LGBTQ+ equality.63 Nike recently faced pressure
sector the number of B-corps had risen to nearly from civil society groups to ensure fair wages are
Not all causes that fashion 200 as of April 2018, compared with just seven paid to workers of suppliers in emerging markets.64 Exhibit 9:
in 2010. Athleta promises that 40 percent of its
brands advocate are universally products are made of recycled and sustainable
Another reason that brand alignment Total fashion, apparel and beauty
popular, and these can come with causes can backfire is that discerning B-Corps
materials, while Eileen Fisher and Allbirds have
consumers can easily spot the difference between
with significant risks. Besides made similar commitments. The latter donates
gimmicks and a genuine purpose that aligns with
Absolute number of corporations
returned used shoes to charity. We would not be
potential controversy from surprised if at least one $500 million-plus fashion
the values of the organisation. Companies can
supporting divisive causes, brands expect consumers to closely examine the level of
company became a B-corp in 2019.
continuity across campaigns and the nature of
may also risk being perceived as Notably, environmentally- and social- their strategic and operational decisions, as well
197
hypocritical if they do not carefully ly-focused companies are considered by younger as their tone. 200 186
The State of Fashion 2019
46 47
Executive Interview 05. Getting Woke
Cédric Charbit BoF: What are the biggest a platform, not only to convey BoF: What was the reaction are the dynamics at play that
priorities and opportunities our creativity and product, grow from your community? makes this an appropriate
for the fashion industry our business and improve our CC: It was not like we were thing for a luxury fashion
Chief Executive of Balenciaga in 2019? market share, but also to use the waiting for feedback; we felt brand like Balenciaga to do?
CC: There are two things platform to raise awareness? This convinced that we should do CC: The fact the brand belongs
that I think are going to be was very much our mindset in the this and we were extremely to [a group like] Kering, express-
game-changers. In the future, first place. determined to do this. There ing commitment towards sus-
we will all make commitment It is how we work together with was an authenticity about it. tainability and some values as a
part of the aesthetic. It’s what [Balenciaga’s artistic director] Second, the show exposure and group I think makes a difference.
you call activism or being mean- Demna [Gvasalia]. It’s having visibility about the World Food Nobody’s forced [to do anything]
ingful in what you do in terms of him at the helm of the creative, Programme is not something that but there’s an environment and
fashion. A product can no longer artistic direction of the brand was hidden. It was clear and loud; there’s a context [that is support-
be only and purely craftsmanship but also being part of what we it was on the runway and it says, ive]. Second, [with] social media
plus creativity and heritage: want to do with the brand, its Balenciaga supports the World and the fact that there’s now a
we need to add values and values and its future. Fashion Food Programme. It’s a good direct contact to customers and
emotion to it. Products need to cannot lock itself in the so-called example of having commitment the Balenciaga community, it’s
be meaningful. ivory tower anymore. We need blended and integrated with time to not only push product
The second thing that I feel is to be conscious of the world and the aesthetic as opposed to have but also to push the values and
going to be very important is how reflect what’s happening. Demna commitment being something to explain the creative process
we engage with our audience. It’s embodies this new genera- that we do aside or something we in a better way. I would call it
tion of designers who want to do in the shadows. storytelling, in a way. What has
The chief executive of Balenciaga of course about the customers
express this. I think this is quite changed is the fact that there
The State of Fashion 2019
and also the non-customers; the I hear store managers and sales
important. It started in a very are now leaders in the luxury
discusses the culture of self- people who just want to engage
with you on the digital side, for genuine way.
assistants telling me that some
industry such as Kering that
disruption, Kering’s influence on example, on social media and
the other stakeholders of the “Fashion cannot lock itself in the so-called
are taking a commitment
towards values.
social commitments and the need for industry. The brand is not only ivory tower anymore. We need to be conscious I also feel it’s about the direct
here to sell product to the client. relationship we have with
brands to focus on members of their It’s also about communicating of the world and reflect what’s happening. our community, where we
and conveying messages and can express ourselves. We’re
community even when they are not values to the entire community Demna embodies this new generation of extremely exposed and visible
paying customers. of the brand. I think we have to designers who want to express this.” and we could make a difference.
be community-centric, audi- It’s part of our responsibility.
ence-centric. As a brand we rely customers have [told] them that I feel this has always been part
— by Imran Amed on many, many other stakehold- BoF: Why did you make the
decision to support the World
it’s the first time in their life of fashion, to push the norm,
ers. We should really focus on our they’ve made a donation. If we to change things.
audience as opposed to just Food Programme? can influence how people dress When you think of wearing a
our clients. CC: It was linked to the creative but also in a way, try also to logo of a brand, is that an
process of Demna. It’s not [ just] [make them] think, I think it’s expression of a status symbol? I
selecting a cause; it’s also making great. This initiative has brought personally don’t think so. I think
BoF: When you’re thinking
sure it makes sense and it ties us a lot of comments, likes and what matters for our audience is
about making a commitment,
back to what he has in mind transactions. At the end of the day, to make sure that when you wear
how do you think about which
as a creative vision. The show this is how you engage with the a Balenciaga logo it means you
causes to get behind?
was about accumulation, it community, to engage with the belong to the community, you
CC: Balenciaga has gained was layering of pieces. It was a brand, not only via transactions. embrace the aesthetic and you
a lot of visibility lately. We have sense of opulence and I think he share the values. The creativity of
enjoyed much broader exposure wanted to [contrast] that [with] BoF: Why do you think the brand becomes very relevant
than in the past. What should the World Food Programme, it’s brands are taking a more and important for customers.
we do about this exposure and to feed that tension between vocal stance now than they To put your name on a T-shirt is
how do we raise awareness accumulation and giving back. might’ve done before? What simply not enough. You need to
using the Balenciaga brand as
48 49
Executive Interview 06. NOW OR NEVER
make sure that you engage with pushing the norm. The models Second, the way we have worked
people in the right way so they Cristóbal Balenciaga were using sneakers at Balenciaga from a
share and they belong. were called monsters; people design, a product development
didn’t like how they looked. He standpoint and from a communi-
BoF: Balenciaga, since the used some very inexpensive
product like fishermen garments
cation standpoint was the same
as if it was an amazing couture
The time lag between discovery and purchase
arrival of Demna, has been
a disruptive force in the and elevated them to a couture dress or a perfectly-cut tailored is a pain-point for customers who continue
industry. How do you keep level. The guy was a disrupter at jacket. If we look at the Triple S
the core of the brand and the time. for example, it’s the combination to expect better experiences. Companies are
of three different soles that are
what makes it this historical,
beautiful heritage brand
Now that we see the pictures in
black and white and we see all not stuck together. They’re just increasingly focusing on reducing this source
while disrupting it enough
to make it exciting, fresh
this beauty and the power of his
creations, 100 years after we feel
assembled together. The amount
of work to create that shoe for
of friction and launching new technologies to
and new? this is elegance and beauty. me is at couture level, meaning
the shoe is clearly pushing the
enable a smooth and speedy transition from
CC: The brand is 101 years old At the time it was extreme. It was
and Cristóbal Balenciaga himself difficult, it was controversial and norms. Balenciaga was pushing inspiration to acquisition.
was a leader, not a follower. not everybody was into it. The the norms whilst creating mega
I think we have inherited his reviews were just really tough on volumes, whilst proposing things
spirit. It makes total sense for him. What I’m trying to say here that were unique and new and
Balenciaga to be today a brand is Balenciaga the brand has a forward. I think there’s a lot of
that is not a follower; a brand that spirit of being a leader. Instead of DNA in that shoe.
is a leader, pushing the norm, a disruption I would call it leader- So, why are sneakers replacing The consumer psyche is changing fast. Technology fragmented than it is on digital-native platforms,
The State of Fashion 2019
brand that is doing a very unique ship and innovation. Leadership: handbags? The products we sell leaders such as Amazon, Uber, Netflix and with customers often struggling to shop based
casting, a brand that is pushing not because we are at the today need to be meaningful, Deliveroo have raised customer expectations in on their ideas, desires or inspirations.
the norms of fashion, of volumes, forefront, but leadership because let’s say I call them smart, like terms of speed and convenience. Through its Prime
of proportions on everything we do things in a very unique and a smartphone for example. The One reason is that the way consumers
offering, Amazon has created an expectation that
we do. A brand that is trying to very Balenciaga way. Innovation: shoe, it’s the equivalent of a get inspired has changed. In the old world, they
delivery should be next day, or even same day.
rethink how we do retail and our because we look at the brand, the smartphone. The sneaker itself is would often get ideas for purchases directly from
Customers now expect to get a taxi, watch a film or
stores, a brand that is rethinking creative side of it, how we engage extremely meaningful for people. brands (intermediated by magazines) or from
receive a meal almost instantaneously, and to make
how we act on social media, our with people and how we manage You can work, it’s very versatile, in-store assistants. Now consumers turn to a
the brand in an inventive way it goes from day to night, it goes a choice based on an easy-to-assess interface or app.
tone of voice, who we hire, our much wider range of inspirations, from social
community, what we do. as well. for the weekend, it goes for work. This resulting need for immediacy media, celebrities and influencers, to spotting an
We are called disruptive. Demna It’s about the casualisation of the shows up in various customer experiences. Some attractive look on the street. According to a 2017
is sometimes called disruptive. BoF: Your best-selling place to work and how people
61 percent of respondents to one UK survey are millennial survey, consumers are more likely
I feel this is very Balenciaga. It’s sneakers have been a big part dress to go to work. Sneakers
not willing to wait more than 45 minutes for a to find inspiration from external sources
very much us and when you talk of Balenciaga’s success story. have become their own category.
It’s not a trend; it’s a relevant takeaway food delivery to arrive. Around one in (e.g., influencers, friends, TV) than directly from
to people internally they all feel Can you help us understand
category for brands. I don’t want five say they will wait just 5-10 minutes for a taxi the brand or retailer (i.e., store website, in-store
we are just simply acting normal the luxury sneaker
phenomenon better, since you to make a statement. Are shoes ordered via an app.65 This changing sentiment is staff). Some 41 percent of respondents say they rely
and we just do the right things.
guys were really some of the the new bags? Maybe. There’s a revealed by shifting patterns of internet searches. on influencers and bloggers, compared with just
Sometimes I’m asked, ‘How do lot of space for bags, but what Google search interest for businesses and the like 20 percent who put their faith in store employees.67
pioneers who brought this
you do to get the millennials I can say is that that shoes are
into the mainstream? that are “open now” has tripled in the past two
shopping at Balenciaga?’ We The increasingly diverse nature of
CC: Sneakers started at also a great alternative to stilettos years. Searches for “store hours” have dropped.66
simply never ever talk about and sneakers have found a great inspiration can be a source of confusion for some,
how to appeal or sell to millen- Balenciaga for two reasons. This demonstrates a subtle but fundamental
market share simply because because it removes the direct connection between
nials. We simply never have a The first one is because it was change in mindset.
they blend nicely with the way the idea and the item. Instead, consumers must
discussion on how to break the a creative vision, something
we live. If tech companies have taken a lead on now seek out the product they are looking for based
rules, how to make some noise, Demna wanted to do because
he was true to what he felt was streamlining the customer decision journey, on their best guess of the right brand, description,
how to be disruptive. The brand
right for the brand and with This interview has been edited and fashion companies have largely failed to season or retailer. This represents a significant
itself has inherited the spirit condensed.
of a leader, someone who was his aesthetic. follow. Across the industry, the process is more pain-point in the customer decision journey.
50 51
Consumer Shifts 06. Now or Never
From a brand perspective, more fragmentation better job at curation and discovery,” says Stitch search and purchase,”74 and works with leading in improving mobile conversion rates, stream-
and degrees of separation create roadblocks in Fix chief operating officer Mike Smith. “There’s retailers, such as Myntra.75 lining the check-out process, improving search
converting inspired consumers into purchasers. going to be a higher burden placed on the retailer and optimising the user experience. Offensively,
Larger fashion players and retailers
and the brand instead of the customer doing all we expect brands and retailers to increasingly
The key pain point comes at the stage are also catching the wave, either developing
the work.” collaborate with technology companies to develop
after the consumer has had an idea, but before tools in-house or partnering with technology
proprietary tools such as visual search engines.
they have identified where they can purchase companies. Asos, for example, has developed a
According to a 2017 millennial We predict that once one solution becomes a clear
the product. As a result, the instant gratification “Style Match” search tool and the company expects
impulse is frustrated. The consumer moves on survey, consumers are more likely visual search to help drive sales growth of 30-35
winner (such as Shazam in music), there will be a
step-change increase in consumer adoption.
and the sales opportunity evaporates. Drilling to find inspiration from external percent.76 Chief executive Nick Beighton remarks,
down into the causes, this pain point is at least “One of the things we are solving for customers is,
sources (e.g., influencers, friends,
partly caused by an inability to identify and find ‘What do I wear this morning? What do I wear to
the product. Word-based searches do not lead to TV) than directly from the brand do whatever I want to do today, to feel confident
Exhibit 10:
the right place and often consumers wouldn’t know or retailer. about whatever I’m doing?’ Visual search is one of
the right terminology for the product they search. the ways to take away that friction.” As conversion rates are significantly
The challenges are particularly onerous when In fashion, some emerging technologies lower for mobile than desktop, retailers
Forever 21 partnered with Donde Search will work to improve the customer
the customer does not know the name of the are similarly aiding in product identification.
to create Discover Your Style, a visual search journey
The State of Fashion 2019
a visual tool for fashion (serving some of the big The implications of these new tech-
In seeking a solution, fashion may learn
high street fashion names as clients) and raised nologies are considerable and will lead to both
something from other industries. In music,
$8 million in early funding.73 Singapore-based defensive and offensive plays. On the defensive
Shazam enables consumers to identify the name
start-up Visenze AI launched “Shoppable User side, we expect next year the majority of fashion
of tracks or albums simply by sampling the music
Generated Content,” a visual recognition tool that players will integrate commerce functionality
wherever they hear it. The app has 150 million
“understands and tags user-generated contents into social media, enabling direct-to-product
users a month and has been downloaded a billion
making items within images easy to discover, journeys. They will also likely continue to invest
times.69 “There’s this huge focus on… doing a much
52 53
Executive Interview 06. Now or Never
54 55
Executive Interview 06. Now or Never
so I can start playing with that them. There’s six businesses ‘buy online, pick up in store’, The power of the mobile device markdowns on that brand and
line, the economic model, to in the entire store that need [considering what] we carry right is [that] everything the customer we’re going to save a size 8,
say, “Look, I’ve got space. You’ve really [hand-to-hand] attention now — about ten items online needs is going to be in that device. if that’s her size. We’re going to
got a brand and I’ve got traffic. at all times. Those businesses to one item in a store in terms of However she wants to transact, have her style that’s ready to go
I’ve got a devoted customer that, are businesses where Macy’s the SKUs. We believe, in terms what payment types she wants whenever she wants to buy it.
frankly, [if ] I put your brand remains relevant, so we’re in the of ‘endless aisle,’ that we can take to pick, what coupons she wants She’s got to agree that this is
in there and I give you space game with market share [for big that SKU assortment higher. to select, if she wants self-check- something that she wants.
for it and start leasing more of ticket segments] like furniture, In the past, you had to have that out, everything is in that portion The customer is going to be in
that for something that’s added mattresses, as well as men’s one item that you were ordering of the mobile app. This idea charge on this. We’re going to
into the customer experience.” clothing, dresses, fine jewellery, online in that store in order for a about the store opens up and be able to have data to operate
We’re looking at services…like women’s shoes and the entire customer to pick it up and so we you can do whatever. It will tell as a tool for her, but our biggest
travel, watch repair, post offices, beauty floor. were constrained by whatever you product reviews, it will give mission is; how do we make it
pharmacy [and] what we’re doing When you start looking at [other] the customer was ordering you online video. It just exposes easier for a customer? There’s
with optical. businesses like most casual online. [So] we added a thing you to whatever you want to still way too much friction with
sportswear, kids, handbags, called ‘buy online, ship to store’. know about that building or the all retailers. You’ve got Amazon
if you have the brands and you The customer is loving the fulfil- products within it or the services that’s done a great job with con-
BoF: In a way, that’s more
have the right values, you can do ment options that most retailers, that we offer within it. venience and price, but no brick-
of a real-estate model, right?
It’s almost like a mall within it without human capital. That’s who are omni-channel, are Then the third idea about the and-mortar interface with that.
a mall, is that correct? where you can be much more [moving towards]. You have lots mobile app is what we call My I think Macy’s does a good job on
efficient. If you look at what’s of options once it hits that store. Stylist, which is your opportuni- those subjects. We have brick-
JG: Yes. For instance at
going on in off-price right now You could have it delivered to the ty to get help on demand. When and-mortar interface, which
Selfridges: when you go into that
The State of Fashion 2019
you see that it is operating with customer’s office if they choose. we offered our beauty customer gives us our competitive mode.
store, you don’t know what’s
very reduced selling cost. In most cases, they come and the opportunity to self-select,
leased and you don’t know what’s
But what they have is they have pick it up and they hang out in we saw how many of our This interview has been edited and
owned. It’s absolutely seamless
a thrill of the hunt. They have a the store. In about 20 percent of customers did not want to deal condensed.
to the customer. I think it’s got
much faster turnover. They’ve those cases, that customer buys with the sales colleague. They
to be; what are the needs of the
got new content that’s arriving something else when they’re want to know that you’ve got
customer and how do you make
daily. They’ve got great prices in the building. Generally what their size, their colour. Once they
it as easy for them as possible?
that are incredibly transparent they’re buying is equal or higher find that, they don’t necessarily
When they walk in and it’s
to the customer. It’s very easy, than the value of what they’re want to deal with a colleague.
Macy’s, it’s got to be a Macy’s
there’s no sales, no gimmicks. picking up, something we call
experience. A concession model
You start to think about those radiated sales.
traditionally has all been about BoF: As you gather more
that brand or that subset and it businesses, particularly in a lot data from your customers
hasn’t been customer centric. of the apparel businesses, and if BoF: If there are fewer about their purchasing
I think the hybrid is that whatev- you get that model right you can check-out areas and less behaviour, the way they
er’s in that building has got to be do it with less human capital cost, human capital, does that operate in store, the way
[consumer focused so] that the which would mean that you start mean the future of retail that links to their online
customer is able to navigate any to eliminate registers, you start potentially has robots and behaviour, what can you
way that they choose. to reduce space in these stores automation in terms of imagine a company like
and really curate the assortment serving customer? Macy’s could do with
so that you just bring into that JG: I wouldn’t say it’s robots, that data?
BoF: One of the things you local store that content which is but what I would say is that every JG: The biggest opportunity is
mentioned was that neigh- right for that community. customer that comes into our what we can offer the customer
bourhood stores can be run
stores has got their mobile device. in terms of a recommendation
more efficiently; what did you
BoF: How does that connect If we can make that as purpose- engine that satisfies every one of
mean by that?
with the online component? ful and as useful to them as we her needs. If she’s got a tendency
JG: Today we have a lot of busi- know it can be, there’s so much
JG: Hand in glove. It’s totally or proclivity to buy a particu-
nesses that are really transac- that opens up to them that gives
supportive and symbiotic, lar brand, but only on sale, it
tional and we treat them like them control of that transaction
especially when you think about notifies her when we’re taking
there is a service component to and that experience.
56 57
In-Depth 06. Now or Never
the brand or the name of the item. Asos customers APIs are also becoming easier to use. Historically, and empowering them. Realistically, a
can also talk not to a sales assistant, but to Google API design emphasised dependability and security; cross-functional scrum team should be
Assistant. Zara is shipping products to customers however, as they have grown in popularity, able to create a market-ready solution
straight from their stores. Zozo is producing designers have begun to make pragmatic trade-offs using technologies such as these in just a
custom-fit garments on a mass scale. Innovations of between technical concerns and ease-of-adop- few weeks, and then continuously improve
this sort often begin as a novelty in the market but tion to appeal to developers. Finally, open-source it multiple times a day. A typical team
can quickly set new customer expectations. Once libraries, freely shared by companies such as would consist of approximately ten people,
customers experience Amazon Prime delivery, Netflix, Google, Airbnb, Microsoft, Facebook and including roles such as a product owner,
for example, or shop using apps on mobile devices, others, have now become mainstream, leading to a user experience (UX) and user interface
it becomes harder and harder to lure them back dramatic reduction in the time it takes to develop (UI) designers, web developers, mobile
into stores or to force them to use old-fashioned custom applications. developers, systems engineers and data
websites and wait a week for delivery. While scientists. The team should be co-located,
Most companies will build new capabilities using empowered to make rapid decisions, and
experiences such as these would have seemed
existing systems, many of which may not have funded as a mini-business with their own
daunting to create only a few years ago, with
extensive, high quality APIs, or be built to support P&L so that they can set direction by the
developments both in technology and in the way
the volume of traffic arising from public use (as business metrics that matter. Importantly,
in which technology is delivered, it need not be
compared to internal use). To create new customer an enduring capability should be built to
daunting anymore.
experiences and modernise their IT systems, do this within the business, rather than
Two related factors enable companies to deliver a company in this situation will need to implement outsourcing it as a one-off project.
experiences such as these. The first is growth in APIs where they are missing and look to pragmat-
simple services, platforms, and components which ically modernise at least some of their systems to The technical building blocks already
can be used to deliver sophisticated new capabil- support higher levels of use. Unlike when Amazon. exist; a company does not need to build the
ities. The second is the ongoing upgrade of legacy com set out on its journey to modernise its systems integrated solution from scratch. These
IT systems, and the range of technologies that can back in 2001, there are now established approaches, existing capabilities can be rapidly stitched
support modernising the core of a business. technologies and tools that can support this. together using SaaS capabilities. Some
custom building will still be required,
The growth in public cloud space has led to an But, what does all of this mean for a business? If but this can focus on those distinctive
increase in the availability of both software- you’re like most businesses in the fashion industry aspects that make the end service novel
as-a-service (SaaS) and platform-as-a-service. your e-commerce sites have a traditional interface and focused. Tackling the legacy of existing
Using public cloud platforms, highly scalable, and you are struggling to evolve your business in systems will require top-notch architectural Source: Digital McKinsey
58 59
07. RADICAL TRANSPARENCY 07. Radical Transparency
Fashion companies must come to terms with the environment. Consumers want to support
brands that are doing good in the world, with 66
apparel company Everlane offers its customers
insight into all these costs, alongside information
the fact that a more distrusting consumer percent willing to pay more for sustainable goods. on the factory that produced the products.83
Some 42 percent of millennials say they want to
expects full transparency across the value chain. know what goes into products and how they are
Given consumer demands for greater
transparency through the value chain, we see three
Given the need to regain that trust, fashion made before they buy, compared with 37 percent
of Gen Z.79
key dynamics in the coming period. First, players
will rigorously audit their business practices to
players cannot afford not to examine long- identify potential areas that may erode consumer
Brands are responding by trying
standing practices across their businesses. to become more transparent, in
trust. The lens for this analysis could be,
“What would my customers think if this was on
many cases specifying costs of the front page of a newspaper?” Brands will invest
to address any problem areas. As a result, more
materials, labour, transport, duties
players will highlight their best practices to create
and mark-up. a competitive edge. Some will use new technolo-
gies such as blockchain, in which each node of the
The fashion industry suffers from a rising trust borders.” We expect the critical dimensions in In response, several brands have network sees the whole history of transactions, to
The State of Fashion 2019
deficit. Recent high-profile data breaches at a which fashion players will be most scrutinised already moved towards “radical transparency” boost transparency in the supply chain. We also
number of online fashion companies, and in other include: creative integrity, sustainable supply in manufacturing, hoping to regain the trust expect more rigorous reporting of social and envi-
industries, have left consumers wondering whether chains, value for money, treatment of workers, of disillusioned customers. This might include ronmental impact. Finally, brands are likely to be
they should share information with brands and data protection and authenticity. information about product origins or the environ- more transparent in the event of a crisis. They will
retailers. As a result, they are demanding to know mental impact of manufacturing. One mass market respond more quickly, admit when they are at fault
From a creative standpoint, brands need
much more about a range of issues, from where and player example is H&M-owned Arket, which lists more often and be willing to apologise.
to show they bring something to the table that is
how items are made to the design provenance and where each product is made, showing pictures
based on their own intellectual property. Copycats
the item’s quality. from the manufacturing floor.80 Designer Martine
are increasingly called out on social media. For
Jarlgaard, meanwhile, has launched a pilot to track
As Mike Smith, chief operating officer of example, @DietPrada, an Instagram account that
clothing from raw material to consumer using
Stitch Fix, asserts, “If you don’t have trust, you boldly names brands that have lifted styles from Exhibit 11:
blockchain.81 The retailer Reformation applies its
don’t win the customer over time.” Yet surveys other designers, has over 830,000 followers at the
“RefScale” methodology to measure the envi- Fashion executives anticipate
suggest that trust in businesses fell in 40 percent time of printing. Cases of cultural appropriation
ronmental impact of every garment it sells, and consumers’ need for transparency
of countries in 2017, with more than two in five — described by The Economist as instances where
discloses the results to customers. RefScale tracks
consumers saying they didn’t know which brands a “‘dominant culture’ wearing or using things
pounds of carbon dioxide and gallons of water used
to trust. It makes sense that as trust has eroded, from a ‘minority culture’ is inherently disre-
in production.82 Other supply chain tracking tech-
consumers have become more active in scrutinis- spectful because the objects are taken out of their
nologies include analysing dust samples and using
ing the brands they do business with. native context”78 — have gained instant notoriety
AI to trace the geographic history of a product.
on social media. Consumers are increasingly Survey respondents that
Millennials are at the vanguard, with 52
demanding that the products produced by fashion Another increasing concern among cited “consumer needs
65%
percent agreeing that they always research for for trust in product
brands are original, reflecting their own desire for consumers is value for money. This reflects
background information before buying, compared authenticity and creative
their fashion choices to be reflections of their sense increased product saturation, proliferation of originality” in their top 5
with 45 percent of Gen Z consumers and 41 trends for 2019; ranked
of style, self-image and values. product information and reviews and the rising
percent of baby boomers. Reviews and articles are 2nd out of a possible 12.
ability to compare prices. Brands are responding
common sources of information.77 “Social media Transparency has become an important
by trying to become more transparent, in many
has enabled a certain transparency,” says Farfetch issue further upstream in the supply chain, with
cases specifying costs of materials, labour,
chief strategy officer Stephanie Phair. “You can consumers increasingly concerned about issues
transport, duties and mark-up. San-Francisco
no longer control your luxury messaging within including fair labour, sustainable resourcing and Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey
60 61
In-Depth
They say it takes years to earn trust but only an today the retailer can trace the origins of a single
instant to lose it. With trust in very short supply beef patty with such detail that it can name the
among today’s consumers, some companies are breed, age and even the name of each individual
going to extraordinary lengths to claw it back. cow. Individual identities using a series of letters
As one of the most traditionally opaque industries and digits based on a DNA profile taken at the
out there, fashion faces an especially challenging abattoir that can, in turn, be traced back to the
future in this regard, but instead of grappling to farm of origin.
invent new ways to beat the trust deficit, it could By partnering with Dublin-based tech firm
look to other industries for inspiration and Indentigen, M&S uses a genetic sampling
best practice. technique that analyses the molecular signature
The State of Fashion 2019
The kind of radical transparency that some fashion found in the smoke emitted when a tiny sample of
players will embrace tomorrow is being played the meat comes into contact with a laser. The move
out in the supermarkets today. Arguably, nowhere has been viewed by some as a benchmark when
is traceability more important than in the food it comes to radical transparency, as consumers
industry and since Europe’s horsemeat scandal increasingly demand to know the provenance of
of 2013 — which exposed a sector where some their food.
products advertised as 100 percent beef contained
undeclared meat from other animals including pig “An apparel company might think
and horse — more and more consumers are asking
whether we really know what we’re putting on
that they only have 1,000 to 2,000
our plates. suppliers, but the reality is they
The more complex that global supply chains have 20,000 to 50,000 when you
Radical transparency is coming become, the more vulnerable they are to fraud
and error. Sensing that customers were still very
count all the sub-suppliers.”
soon across the supply chain. distrustful of the supermarket giants, Marks &
Spencer (M&S) recently introduced complete But beyond groceries, the question of precisely
Unless fashion brands adopt best traceability of all its beef products. One motivation
for M&S would have been to implement a system
where our goods come from remains as pertinent
as ever — and one that the fashion industry has not
practices from outside the industry Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images
to prevent it from meeting the fate of one of its
rivals, Tesco, which in the dark days after the
yet been able to solve at scale.
“[What] only a few leading brands are doing is
62 63
In-Depth 07. Radical Transparency
“It’s been well established in food, pharmaceuti- Gobbetti to address the issue with a plan that “Some brands are doing fast fashion, others
cals and other industries for years. We need to get would see a complete turnaround. “We are now in are doing four collections a year, but there is a
there with apparel.” a position to [stop] destroying finished products, continuous turnover. With food, you don’t change
which we think, frankly, is just not modern,” he that often. Apparel is one of the most volatile and
Long Legacy of Bad Habits told BoF in September. fast-changing supply chains that I know of.”
It is clear there has been a shift in the way
In the not too distant fashion past, a lack of trans-
consumers view transparency. In today’s world of Trade Secrets and Tokenistic Gestures
parency in a company’s supply chain could actually
post-truth politics and “fake news,” consumers’
be seen as a competitive advantage. Businesses M&S was one of the first mass-market companies
distrust of governments and media has extended
wanted to keep insight into their suppliers and to take tighter control of its supply chain by
to every aspect of their lives, from food to medicine
manufacturers as opaque as possible. After all, putting a factory map up on its website, sharing
and fashion. Surveys suggest that trust in
if nobody knew where the products were coming what happens where in the world for many of its
businesses fell in 40 percent of countries in 2017,
than 1,100 people died in a garment factory which include publishing lists of all the suppliers
says Tamsin Blanchard, a veteran journalist
collapse in Bangladesh five years ago, pressure has producing for them.
focused on sustainability and ecological issues
mounted on Western retailers to be transparent
in fashion. H&M says it mandates that all suppliers sign a
about their supply chain. Other horror stories
sustainability commitment. In 2017, the company
of garment sweatshops, abuses, child labour
“Apparel is one of the most and deadly industrial disasters have put brands
also launched a moderately higher-priced brand
“An apparel company might think that they only called Arket, which focuses more on staple pieces
volatile and fast-changing supply under scrutiny by shoppers who are increasingly
have 1,000 to 2,000 suppliers, but the reality is than trends. Each item of clothing purchased
demanding to know if their products were made
chains that I know of.” they have 20,000 to 50,000 when you count all the online or in-store comes with information on the
ethically and sustainably.
sub-suppliers. It’s a real challenge [for brands] to location and name of the factory where it was
Yet transparency remains a major challenge map their supply chain because there are too many made. “When we communicate that, customers
For Neliana Fuenmayor, founder and chief
for the global fashion industry, one that was third parties involved,” says Bonanni. have the option to make more sustainable choices,”
executive of A Transparent Company, which
worth $2.5 trillion in 2017, according to the says Karin Brinck, sustainability manager at
advises brands on sustainable innovation, the What often happens is that a factory may take an
McKinsey FashionScope, which relies on very Arket. “We see transparency as one of the means
luxury end of fashion is especially problematic, order, only to find that it doesn’t have the capacity
fragmented supply chains often spread across for our industry to drive positive change through
“[Consumers] don’t question luxury because if it to do all the work and, without notifying the brand,
multiple countries. increased openness.”
has that high price ticket [then] you want to think the factory owner may then delegate the work out
it’s been done in the best way possible.” Following the Rana Plaza disaster in Bangladesh, to other factories, which could be unregistered and Meanwhile, retailers like Maiyet have approached
it took weeks for retailers to figure out why their therefore the kind of place where labour and safety transparency by stocking only what it considers
However, news in summer 2018 that Burberry
labels had been found among the ruins in the first violations occur. “Many larger fashion brands don’t socially conscious “positive impact” brands in its
had burned $37.6 million worth of unsold clothes
place and which purchasing deals had been made have visibility on suppliers more than one degree recently opened London concept store. According
and accessories, instead of selling it off cheaply,
with those suppliers. As a great number of retailers removed,” says Jessi Baker, chief executive of to co-founder Paul van Zyl, the aim is to “promote
to protect its brand, shocked consumers. It’s
do not own their own manufacturing facilities or Provenance, which helps brands track their supply transparency by sharing the provenance of each
a practice notably not exclusive to the British
use a system of agents and subcontractors known chain using blockchain. brand and creating an environment [for] founders,
fashion brand but the secretive nature of the
as “indirect sourcing,” it makes it difficult for designers and certifying bodies to come together in
industry makes it difficult to accurately quantify The speed in which fashion operates also poses a
companies to monitor conditions across their an open and honest way.”
the scale of the problem. challenge. “The apparel industry is in an unusual
supply chain.
The public outrage and negative media attention conundrum, because it has the highest turnover While this degree of transparency in the fashion
prompted Burberry chief executive Marco in supply chain of any industry,” adds Bonanni. industry is a positive change, it still raises some
64 65
In-Depth 07. Radical Transparency
important questions: what is a shopper supposed for why radical transparency is challenging,”
to do with that information? Fuenmayor continues. “If you’re a brand choosing
“I think it’s a bit tokenistic,” says Rachael which supplier to make a product, you’re trying
Stott, senior creative researcher at The Future to push down the price as much as possible.
Laboratory. “If you’re given the name of a factory That’s where the secretive part comes in because
or the provenance of a garment, it’s too vague suppliers might offer certain brands a better
to really help [the consumer] at that point of price than their competitors and so it becomes a
purchase. I still have to go away and research these grey area.”
factories and names. There’s no guarantee for me
as a consumer that what I’m buying is ethical.” Using Technology to Improve Disclosure
But as impossible as full transparency may seem,
“We see transparency as one of it’s clear that the pendulum has swung too far in
the means for our industry to the other direction for far too long. “In the future,
not being transparent raises a red flag. Consumers
drive positive change through will question… what are you hiding?” Fuenmayor
increased openness.” continues. “What is luxury today? Is it a logo or is
The State of Fashion 2019
66 67
In-Depth 07. Radical Transparency
created a painstaking “pedigree” that traced the the food chain — producers, suppliers, retailers or powers transparency and allows brands to not only “In the long term we’re heading towards brands
fabric through the supply chain of raw materials, consumers — can access so-called “tamper-proof” communicate their values, but also hold all of their having to ingrain the idea of transparency into
yarn spinners, weavers, printers and dyers. data about their product at any stage in its supply supply chain partners and producers accountable their DNA. With every new product they bring out,
More surprising was — disclosed on the product chain life cycle. for each step,” she says. they’ll have to ensure that they can give all the
detail pages of the brand website — an itemised The fashion industry, however, seems more information they can on sourcing and production,”
break-down of the garment’s cost to the very last reticent. Martine Jarlgaard’s pilot programme Clear Standards and User-Generated Insight said Blanchard. “This is going to be the future of
penny, including his wholesale and retail mark-up to track clothing from raw material to consumer how people shop, as more consumers are educated
percentages. When news broke in October 2018 While full transparency remains an elusive and about the industry and will put their money in the
using blockchain is a start. However, it will take
suggesting that Honest By might be closing down, somewhat controversial concept, many see the brands they feel they can put their trust in.”
much bigger developments from blockchain
some saw it as a sign of how hard it is to sustain immediate goal as understanding better what other
specialists like VeChain, whose chief executive
steps a company can take to implement aspects of
a business in fashion without compromising Sunny Lu is the former chief information officer Blockchain powers transparency
on transparency. radical transparency into their operations.
of Louis Vuitton China, to move the needle.
Collaboration, says Fuenmayor, is the way forward and allows brands to not only
Transparency is also important in terms of Meanwhile, De Beers, the world’s biggest diamond
disclosing how companies operate. Fitness producer by the value of its gems, said it planned to
— and it starts from within. “There has to be a communicate their values, but
corporate culture shift within the company so that
technology firm Fitbit, for example, has access launch the first industry-wide blockchain this year,
sustainability and transparency can be achieved
also hold all of their supply
to extremely valuable customer data, which may to track gems each time they change hands from
across all departments.” The problem, she says, is chain partners and producers
The State of Fashion 2019
leave people feeling uneasy. It hopes to quell the moment they are dug up from the ground.
these concerns by being completely open about The technology could be used to verify the authen-
that “companies are split into departments and accountable for each step.
which data points they collect and how they share that causes fragmentation and silos. We need to
ticity of diamonds and ensure they are not from
it. Meanwhile, charity services like BitGive and move from a centralised system to a more decen- Forward-looking fashion leaders now believe
conflict zones where gems could be used to
AidCoin use technology to provide greater trans- tralised one.” that we are headed toward a future where trust
finance violence.
parency to donors by sharing real-time financial Fuenmayor adds that “giving power” to employees becomes an exceptionally powerful currency and,
and project information. “Fashion companies are very to “make decisions” was an important step. Scott extending the metaphor further, transparency
agrees, suggesting that the solution could go as far then becomes as indispensable to upholding trust
What’s clear is that while technology has played a careful with how they share
part in generating much of today’s mistrust, it can upstream in the supply chain as giving autonomy as the modern banking system is for managing
also be leveraged to restore trust and confidence. information [and] that’s one to garment workers. “It’s about putting power our money.
Blockchain, for one, has the potential to fix this. of the blockers for why radical in their hands [and could mean] letting them “We mustn’t forget that transparency [itself] is not
upload their own conditions onto a cloud-based the goal. Transparency is just one step towards the
The underlying technology driving cryptocurren- transparency is challenging.” platform, so companies can track labour patterns
cies such as Bitcoin, blockchain is a decentralised aim, which is sustainability,” reminds Bonanni.
a bit more honestly and authentically,” she said. “Positive change is what we should look for in the
and distributed digital system of records that If something similar were adopted by fashion
“When brands want to control their supply chain near future, which is not just for companies to be
cannot be altered once they have been added. brands, retailers could garner greater trust
and do quality control visits, a lot of [what they see transparent, but to commit to standards across
The global blockchain technology market was through the product lifecycle, as it could tell
through audits] is staged and not a realistic view of improving the supply chain.”
estimated by Statista to be worth $339.5 million in consumers not just where an item was made,
what’s happening.”
2017, and is forecast to grow to $2.3 billion by 2021. but also who it was made by, the conditions
they worked in, how much they were paid, the Meanwhile, in industries such as beauty, some The author works in the editorial division of The Business
This technology is already being slowly
composition of the garment, where the fabric was manufacturers have embraced a switch to “clean of Fashion
implemented in a number of industries. Swiss
grown and what chemicals had been used. label” ingredients or use of ethical certification
tech firm Ambrosus offers blockchain for the food
logos, such as Fairtrade or non-GMO, to indicate
industry, making it accessible to both emerging While critics of blockchain claim that it has several
that ingredients have been sustainably sourced
start-ups and billion-dollar brands. The firm uses “Achilles heels” including problems as diverse
based on explicit and established standards.
high-tech sensors and blockchain technology to as scalability, securing privacy and its power
record the entire history of food and pharmaceu- source, observers like Scott from The Future
tical products. By using a smartphone, anyone in Laboratory are more enthusiastic. “Blockchain
68 69
Fashion
08. SELF DISRUPT
System
Technology and social media are enabling
a new breed of ‘challenger’ brands that disrupt
a sector or category where incumbent players
have rested on their laurels. Meanwhile, to
compete and stay relevant among demanding
young consumers, traditional brands are echoing
this dynamic and disrupting their own brands,
offerings and business models.
Fashion brands, and luxury houses in particular, Clothing brand Reformation, for example,
The State of Fashion 2019
are often successful because of their heritage. has 1.1 million Instagram followers, as of printing
While this continues to be a key advantage, it is no this report, and makes 80 percent of sales online.
longer enough. In this year’s BoF-McKinsey State It pushes its green credentials and has a roster of
of Fashion Survey, self-disruption is top of mind celebrity endorsers, including Emily Ratajkowski,
for 2019, with 79 percent of executives placing it in Selena Gomez and Rihanna. Another disruptor
the top five trends impacting the industry. brand I.AM.GIA (which has created an Instagram
It-girl persona called Gia) has a similar profile,
There are two key forces driving
with over six hundred thousand Instagram
self-disruption: younger consumers’ preference
followers and a strong celebrity following.
for novelty and advancements in both digital
Both companies are growing sales at high
technology and social media.
double-digit rates.
According to the McKinsey Millennial
If performance were measured by social
Survey, younger generations are more willing to
media growth alone, the big incumbent fashion
set themselves apart through brands and they
players would already be in trouble. Brands such
are also more likely to follow up-and-coming
as H&M, Dior and Zara grew their Instagram
brands.84 The latter will typically challenge fashion
fan base by less than 30 percent in the year to
conventions through either branding, commu-
September. Many disruptors saw their Instagram
nication or distribution. At the same time, social
following expand by more than 130 percent over
media has dramatically levelled the playing field,
70 71
Fashion System 08. Self-Disrupt
Established brands recognise that imitating the “drop” approach commonly used some of their most pioneering practices and ideas.
challenger brands are often more nimble and by streetwear labels to release smaller and more Others are creating dedicated internal units to Exhibit 12:
effective at reaching young audiences. In response, frequent collections that create rarity value streamline the innovation process. Gucci Artlab, Followers of challenger brands are more
the former are now turning to a series of levers to and elevate anticipation. Moncler’s launch of its also launched this year, is an innovation hub active and engaged than those of legacy
“self-disrupt.” “Genius Project” is an example, with Hiroshi focused on leather goods and footwear. brands
Fujiwara’s first drop driving a 43 percent month-
Looking forward, we see three key Instagram like/follower ratio (LFR)
Some established brands are on-month increase in earned media value (EMV)
disruptive developments. To compete with
embracing disruption by launching in June 2018 according to Tribe Dynamics.87
challengers, established brands will continue
More recently, Burberry announced is launch of
accelerators and incubators to “B Series,” a new series of monthly product
to innovate, leveraging their scale to fast-track
capability building through M&A, accelerators and
test new approaches in a more releases on the 17th of each month.
innovation labs. The latter will help companies
controlled environment. Established luxury brands are also remain at the forefront of business model
increasingly embracing digital channels as a innovation and respond to new fashion trends
The primary lever is to conduct brand primary, at times exclusive, route to market. more quickly. It will be increasingly important
makeovers, overhauling their approach to create Following the early disruptors Warby Parker and to adopt agile ways of working and depart from
the impressions of having their finger on the pulse Everlane, Comme des Garçons will launch its first the traditional operating model. Players will also
The State of Fashion 2019
by refreshing their image. Burberry, for example, direct-to-consumer (D2C) only brand later in 2018 work to streamline supply chains, enabling faster
developed a new logo and monogram under to expand its customer base.88 We expect more time to market. In an increasingly fickle fashion
Riccardo Tisci. After appointing Hedi Slimane as established brands to follow suit. environment, market leaders will also need to take
creative director, Celine debuted a new logo on more risks to stay ahead. Sub-labels will continue
Some established brands are embracing
Instagram and took a notable pivot away from the to proliferate, enabling brands to experiment while
disruption by launching accelerators and
signature aesthetic to which consumers had grown maintaining the authenticity of the parent brand.
incubators to test new approaches in a more
accustomed and loyal.
controlled environment. These are more Fashion brands must learn to be more
More heritage brands are turning to flexible and less risky than mergers and acqui- willing to adapt themselves, embracing a more
streetwear brands to create a cooler image and sitions, enabling experimentation and offering flexible approach to doing business in areas from
have reflected that ethos in their talent strategies. the opportunity to accelerate business model commercial models to the supply chain and
Louis Vuitton in 2018 appointed Virgil Abloh, innovation where necessary. distribution. Average number of likes on each post in proportion to number of followers over
four weeks in August 2018.
known for his disruptive streetwear brand
Tiffany chief executive Alessandro
Off-White, as its creative director. The origin of In an increasingly fickle fashion Bogliolo summarised the mood perfectly: “We all
Source: McKinsey & Company analysis based on Instagram data
72 73
In Depth 08. Self-Disrupt
74 75
In Depth 09. DIGITAL LANDGRAB
strategy generated earned media value of $90 The retail mix is shifting as well. At Nordstrom,
million in May 2017 alone. Its level of engagement for example, small brands classified as “young”
— an average of 68,000 interactions per post — or “hot” are taking shelf space from “heritage,”
is equal to the combined interactions of the next “established” and “proven” brands. The small
top five brands (Tarte, Benefit, NYX, MAC and challengers make up 13 percent of the overall mix As the race to be the platform of choice for both
Too Faced). Social media firepower of this order
translates into business success: Anastasia has
— but account for 31 percent of brand additions
made in 2018.102 The playbook adopted by small
customers and fashion companies intensifies,
used this Instagram presence as a springboard beauty companies is directly adoptable by small e-commerce players will continue to innovate by
for explosive growth — from retail sales of just fashion companies, particularly the emphasis on
$2 millionin 2012 to current annual net revenue omnichannel and social media excellence. adding profitable value-added services and focusing
estimated at $340 million.100 US swimwear brand Solid and Striped appears
to have been made for the social media age, with
on new technologies. Whether through acquisitions,
Digital technologies have made about 265,000 Instagram followers (at the time investments or internal R&D, players that diversify
of publishing), and products donned by influencers
it easier for small brands to build their ecosystem will strengthen their lead over those
and celebrities alike. At the time of publication
awareness and sell to customers,
helping them capture a
of this report, they are the most stocked brand in
swimwear, for retailers such as MatchesFashion
remaining pure players who rely solely on retail
disproportionate share of growth. and Revolve.103 Small players are also ideally margins and existing offerings.
suited to win by putting values at the core of their
narratives (see “Getting Woke,” page 45), so that
The State of Fashion 2019
76 77
Fashion System 09. Digital Landgrab
or where they spot a structural opportunity, as in brands,” Zalando co-founder David Schneider told large platform business model based on logistics, “One [area] that I find interesting
Alibaba’s XPressBees logistics company. BoF in September. Non-core services are expected speed and search.”
They are also investing heavily in technology to contribute around 10 percent of Zalando profits
is around conversational
Looking ahead to 2019, we are likely to see
across the value chain, aiming to boost efficiency in five years’ time, compared with 2 percent at commerce and really thinking
an accelerated emergence of ecosystems of related
and streamline the customer experience. Alibaba’s present, and will add at least 250 basis points
and overlapping businesses. There will likely be an that customers are increasingly
expansion is effectively powering the digitisation to EBIT margins in the long term, according to
of a country’s entire retail sector. This is reflected analyst reports.110
intensified race for pole position, with the largest going to have a one-to-one
players battling to become the go-to platform for
in investments in various payment solutions relationship with their shopping
Finally, Farfetch’s longstanding consumers and brands. The “holy grail” of the
(Paytm, Kakaopay), logistics (XpressBees), and
flagship example is its Black&White offering, industry will be integration of value-add services through text message and
quantum computing cloud services (SenseTime).
Among other recent initiatives, Flipkart’s AI for
an e-commerce white-label solution for luxury that remove friction in the consumer and supplier through one-to-one requests.”
fashion brands. This allows Farfetch to leverage journey through effective use of data analytics at
India initiative reflects its internal use of machine
its technology capability beyond its core offering. scale. This could lead to a continued wave of M&A
learning and other advanced technologies to
More recently, the company launched its Dream activity in a race to find the best complementary
monitor products and spending. The initiative
Assembly technology accelerator in April 2018 offerings for existing platforms. There is also a
aims to encourage data science and promises
and acquired Curiosity in July to expand its social rising chance of some kind of shake-out for vertical Exhibit 13:
hundreds of millions of dollars of investment
media efforts in China. “One [area] that I find pure players, catalysed by reduced valuations and Valuations of online retail players are
to build new AI solutions.109 In other examples
The State of Fashion 2019
interesting — and we’ve made a move into this — the failures of some smaller companies. Where significantly higher than traditional retail
of diversification, in 2016, Flipkart-owned
is around conversational commerce and really generalist e-commerce platforms remain focused
Myntra acquired Cubeit, a mobile-based content 2017 average market capitalisation to EBITDA multiples
thinking that customers are increasingly going to on retail margins rather than ancillary services,
aggregator, and in 2017 bought start-up InLogg,
have a one-to-one relationship with their shopping without occupying a niche, the demise is likely to
which brings together logistics vendors.
through text message and through one-to-one come sooner rather than later.
20.0
requests,” says Farfetch chief strategy officer
“Smaller players will continue to Stephanie Phair, referring to the company’s recent
have their role to play as long acquisition of a business called Fashion Concierge.
as they differentiate on emotion, Some common threads tie these many
11.1
curation and trust. Not everyone initiatives together. Most major players have
launched data and analytics offerings, the
needs to fit the large platform expansion of which is supported by the parent’s
business model based on logistics, scale and ecosystems. The supply chain is a
speed and search.” common area of focus for innovation, as is the
payments process. In addition, many have
Online retail Other fashion
bolstered their consumer proposition through companies
In Europe, Zalando is expanding
expanded private-label offerings and content
marketing and fulfilment solutions, building
platforms to generate new profitable revenue
out its partner programme, and has acquired AI Based on averages of publicly listed fashion retailers with $100m+ annual revenue.
streams. Most importantly, they signal a clear
start-ups. The company, which says it wants to Source: McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI)
intention to become the platform of choice in an
become the “Spotify for fashion,” is focusing its
increasingly competitive segment.
strategy on four key areas — assortment, demand
generation (for example, through localised Still, there is room for smaller players.
merchandising and data driven marketing), digital Stitch Fix chief operating officer Mike Smith says,
experience and convenience. “We want to build “smaller players will continue to have their role
that one destination which is the entry point for to play as long as they differentiate on emotion,
consumers and the most relevant platform for curation and trust. Not everyone needs to fit the
78 79
Executive Interview 09. Digital Landgrab
Nick Beighton a picture, with voice, with direct BoF: What about ancillary things.’ That’s exactly what we’re
message, through WhatsApp, services? In the context aiming to do. When you think
through an email if you want to, of retail margins, a lot about beauty and grooming with
Chief Executive of Asos and the digital brand responds of the big online players Asos — we call it Face and Body
to you.’ are diversifying into now — this won’t be somewhere
Other big [factors to watch] complementary services you get your functional require-
will be the impact, certainly that are not core to the retail ments for cosmetics. This will be
European and UK, on disposable function. Is this something where you get excitement and
incomes, post-Brexit. Depending that you foresee as part of the engagement that is content-rich,
where we end up [with Brexit], Asos ecosystem of the future? brand-rich and also Asos prod-
there’s going to be an impact on NB: I don’t yet, actually. uct-rich through great delivery
supply chains and there [could The Asos margin has been 4 experiences and great digital
be] friction and costs associated percent for four years, and we set experiences. This is something
with all of that. it at four percent EBIT margin that hasn’t yet been done.
to allow us to invest in customers,
BoF: In the past, you’ve said products and innovation and BoF: When you first took on
that mobile is the future to be experimental, so, I don’t your leadership role, you said
and that you’re going to go necessarily see retail margins that Asos won’t be growing
wherever mobile goes. Were falling in my world. Now, I do up with your customers, and
you referring to the kind of believe other businesses that that you want the brand
‘conversational interfaces’ have set themselves higher EBIT to remain ‘forever young.’
The chief executive of Asos talks about BoF: Few sectors of the margin targets, they’re going to How do you do this but
The State of Fashion 2019
80 81
Executive Interview 10. ON DEMAND
82 83
Fashion System 10. On Demand
60 percent of apparel procurement executives players are also contributing. Companies such as people associate us with clothing made to fit the
expect that over 20 percent of their sourcing Softwear and Sewbo have revolutionised garment shape of the body.” The company expects to sell six Exhibit 14:
volume will be from nearshore by 2025.113 production machinery, using robotics to fully to ten million suits within the year.121 Survey respondents‘ aspiration level for
automate sewing. Sharecloth, a New York based a shift to nearshoring
A related enabler is automation, which Strategically, however, there are
software company, contributes to on-demand by % of respondents
for some products will offset the cost disadvan- differences between start-ups and leading brands.
digitising styles and enabling retailers to place
tage of procuring closer to home. While apparel Rather than jump into on-demand fashion,
orders before products are ever manufactured.115
manufacturing automation may still be subscale, established companies are likely to proceed step >20% share of total sourcing
technologies being developed show its massive Adidas is one of a group of large brands by step. This is partly because there is a high cost
potential. Stand-outs include digital and laser that are showing signs of leveraging speed to shift and disruption to actions such as radical supply
printing for finishing (allowing for nearshoring towards on-demand. Aside from its Arkansas chain transformation.
for final touches combined with automation or operation, it operates “Speedfactories” in Atlanta
low-cost sourcing of the basic garment), knit-in- and Germany that together are expected to 60 percent of apparel
novations (e.g. 3D knitting), semi-automated produce around a million pairs of running shoes a
procurement executives expect
sewing and automated logistics.114 These can help year by 2020, using digital design to enable mass
companies reduce labour intensity, do more custo- customisation.116 Superdry launched “Superdry that over 20 percent of their 60
33
misation, improve reliability and cut Preview,” limited-edition collections that will go sourcing volume will be from
The State of Fashion 2019
84 85
In-Depth 10. On Demand
Is Apparel Manufacturing
Coming Home? European market, manufacturing labour costs
are still higher than those in China, but the gap is
on increasing the net product margin and on
avoiding wastage.
shrinking: whereas hourly manufacturing labour
To meet customers’ needs, apparel companies need to focus costs in Turkey were more than five times higher
Despite its attractiveness, the apparel manufac-
turing industry in nearshore countries in the
on nearshoring, automation and sustainability. than those in China in 2005, in 2017 the gap was
Americas, Turkey, Eastern Europe or North Africa
only 1.6 times.
by Johanna Andersson, Achim Berg, Saskia Hedrich and Karl-Hendrik Magnus still lags the Asian manufacturing powerhouses.
The current import volume from the five biggest
Digital technologies have made nearshoring markets to the US, for example, does
it easier for small brands to build not even account for half of the US imports from
China. The industry is more fragmented and
awareness and sell to customers, quality and labour productivity in some nearshore
Two decades ago, US and European mass-market apparel production modes, and public outcry helping them capture a countries is more volatile.
apparel brands and retailers rushed to shift around overstock liquidation is becoming louder
production to Asia to gain a cost advantage. Since (about three percent of unsold apparel is liqui-
disproportionate share of growth. Nearshoring also creates a new set of trade-offs
then, they have doubled down on this low-cost dated).122 Some 78 percent of sourcing managers and challenges with regards to industry structure,
strategy, moving production from China to even responding to our survey believe that sustain- productivity, operating model, sustainability
And that’s before transportation is taken into
more cost-efficient frontier markets. Apparel ability will also be a somewhat or highly likely and supply. The biggest challenge currently is
The State of Fashion 2019
86 87
In-Depth 10. On Demand
The Potential for Automation To date, the apparel industry lags other sectors Our research shows a clear message: for certain onshoring. More complex silhouettes will be
when it comes to automation. Neither automation products, automation will not only make semi-automated within a decade.
Nearshoring and automation go hand-in-hand.
nor advanced manufacturing have been a priority nearshoring more attractive for US and European
Nearshoring — and, in some cases, onshoring —
for apparel buyers. One reason is that they have mass-market apparel brands and retailers, but it Sustainability
will make even more economic sense as technology
relied on relatively low labour costs in the core will also make onshoring to the US economically
develops, because automation will increase labour Nearshoring and automation have environmental
Asian and other low-cost sourcing markets. viable in the future.
productivity and offset higher labour costs in and social benefits, in addition to the commercial
Automation also presents technical challenges,
near- and onshore production. Mass-market The overall impact is considerable: assuming all benefits described above. By bringing production
especially in sewing: only recently have fully-auto-
apparel brands and retail buyers will consider key technologies currently in development are closer to home and investing in advanced manu-
mated solutions for sewing become market-ready.
automation capabilities when deciding where to implemented in the future, about 40 to 70 percent facturing, companies in the apparel sector will
But now, as on-demand production gains
manufacture products in the future, in addition of labour time can be reduced through automation. become more sustainable and less wasteful by
importance and technologies develop, automation
to the commercial importance of shorter lead reducing overproduction and decreasing the
is becoming more relevant for US and European From a pure cost perspective, automation levels
times and cost efficiencies mentioned above. Local ecological footprint from reduction of transport.
mass-market apparel players, especially combined the playing field and makes Mexico cost-com-
governments and garment industries in nearshore Taken together, nearshoring and automation could
with near- and onshoring. Recent advances in petitive with Bangladesh. Even onshoring from
and onshore locations will also need to build the enable a circular value chain.
technology span the whole gamut from sewing to China to the US achieves breakeven from a pure
skills and capabilities needed for advanced manu-
gluing, knitting and finishing to warehousing and cost perspective if the optimistic 70 percent
facturing among their workforces.
intralogistics. labour time reduction can be achieved. For
The State of Fashion 2019
88 89
In-Depth Deep Dive10.
6: On Demand
Exhibit 16: develop or identify winning technologies, making The disruptions ahead are so profound that
Nearshoring and automation will be important Indirectly enabled by a more closely the decision on where to build new technolo- mass-market apparel players making big moves
integrated chain gies themselves versus forming partnerships or and capturing the advantages of nearshoring and
enablers to reach a circular value chain
Enabled by near-shoring acquiring new capabilities. automation will have a significant first-mover
Enabled by automation advantage. The business models they build
Partnerships. In a world where innovation is will drive growth and be difficult for others to
taking place at breakneck speed and where there is replicate. As it turns into a source of competitive
still uncertainty about which technologies will advantage, sourcing and supply chain management
Circular (zero waste) create real value, partnerships will be critical has completed its journey from mere savings
design process Production of
renewable and for building a sustainable competitive advantage. generator to focus topic on the chief executive
sustainable Apparel brands and retailers will need to forge agenda. Although apparel manufacturing may not
fibres
relationships with global mega-suppliers to build be coming home in the near future, some of the
manufacturing capacity and capabilities in new production will at least be moving ever closer —
New, near-shored fabric geographies. They will also need to collaborate and mass-market apparel brands and retailers will
Co-located
Improved recycling
collection CIRCULAR New resource
industries could invest with technology companies to develop innovative want to be prepared.
business case by
eliminating shipping and recycling FASHION efficient fabric and sustainable automation solutions since, currently, neither
of textiles
VALUE production technology apparel brands nor (most) manufacturers are likely
The State of Fashion 2019
90 91
McKinsey
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
Global
The McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) is
composed of over 500 public and private companies
spanning all geographies, segments and product
categories. It was created to track the industry’s
Fashion
performance through three key variables — sales,
operating profit, and economic profit — providing
a holistic benchmark for the fashion industry.
Index
The State of Fashion 2019
The MGFI was introduced two years ago in the The rise of the ‘super winners’
State of Fashion 2017 report to fill a gap in the
The good news for the industry is that 2017 was
coverage and understanding of performance in
a record-breaking year for overall value creation
the global fashion industry. While fragments of
among listed fashion companies, with aggregate
the industry — such as particular segments or
economic profit reaching its highest levels for 10
categories — had been tracked before, the MGFI
years, after a steady decline between 2012 and
provided the first bird’s-eye view of the whole
2016. This was driven by a particularly strong
market. The index tracks financial development
upswing in revenue growth for publicly listed
across six price segments: luxury, affordable
companies, resulting in improvements in capital
luxury, premium/bridge, mid-market, value and
efficiency as invested capital grew at a slower
discount (see glossary). It includes six product
pace than revenues. Investors recognised this
categories: clothing, footwear, athletic wear,
strong performance, driving share valuations to
bags and luggage, watches and jewellery and
an all-time high. And this was not just part of an
other accessories.
overall stock market trend: between 2008 and
The MGFI tracks and forecasts sales and 2017, fashion sector equity returns have beaten
operating profit. As only source in the industry both the S&P 500 and MSCI world indices.
MGFI also analyses historical economic profit —
We observed in past editions of this
a measure of value creation that takes into account
report that fashion is a winner-takes-all industry.
how much each company had to invest to generate
However, after a period of accelerating outper-
its performance (see glossary).
formance, leaders in 2017 gave up some of their
For the first time this year, we took a advantage. The top 20 percent of companies
closer look at the drivers of economic success attracted 128 percent of economic profit in 2017,
in the sector. A deeper analysis of the top compared with 144 percent in 2016. Still, polarisa-
fashion companies will help readers understand tion has clearly not gone away and scale continues
“what makes winners win” and how winners’ to matter. While a subset of companies continues
performance has evolved over the last ten years. to account for the majority of economic profit, the
92 93
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
Exhibit 17:
number of “value-destroying” companies (i.e., into the elite group, with only two players in the
companies generating negative economic profit) top 20 percent and none in the absolute top 20.
The top 20 percent has almost doubled between 2010 and 2017. Their average top-line growth is four times higher
of fashion companies than that of other fashion players, but this tends
generated 128 percent of This polarisation has led to an even
to translate only into valuation multiples
industry economic profit smaller group of “super winners.” In fact, over
(twice as high as average) while profitability
the long term taking the top 20 companies as a
Fashion companies’ contribution to still lags behind.
industry economic profit 2005-2015 sub-group, there was a widening disparity with the
144
100
128
Top 20%
vs. 2016 vs. 2017 remaining companies encompassed in the top 20 Looking at drivers of long-term success,
%
percent. These “super winners” now account for we find that profitability and capital efficiency
97 percent of economic profit, compared with 70 are key: winners all had above-average EBITDA
percent in 2010: this suggests they are increasingly margins and most exhibited below-average invest-
dominating the global value pool. This is a global ed-capital-to-revenue ratios, while the percentage
21 - 80% phenomenon that can be observed across industry of revenue growth was in line with the wider
18 sectors (beyond fashion), regions and cities, as sample.
6
3
outlined in McKinsey Global Institute’s recent
Still, the lesson from 2017 is that size
-18
Bottom 20%
“Superstars” study.124
-34
continues to matter. There is a demonstrable
-47
The State of Fashion 2019
By segment, we also continue to see advantage to scale. The one caveat is that if you can’t
polarisation, with luxury and value advancing be big, be nimble: challengers that have identified
2016 2017 and mid-market players falling behind. Companies a niche have also found favour. The strategic
able to differentiate on price point/efficiency implication is that executives must be decisive on
Based on publicly listed companies. Source: McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) or brand have performed best. Outstanding the source of economic value creation. The most
performers included handbag and luggage likely route to success, based on recent experience,
108 makers and own-brand multi-category players. is to invest either in brand strength or in operational
Exhibit 18: 101
97 97 Well-known European luxury companies tended efficiency to produce faster or at a lower cost.
Top 20 fashion 10 Years 93 to be overrepresented in the top 20, with North
companies‘ contribution Average: 88 86 86
American companies coming in a close second. Sunny intervals but storms ahead
81
to industry economic 73
Notably, the top 20 group of companies has
profit 2008-2017 70 remained stable over time. Twelve of the top Looking ahead to 2019, we see
20 have been a member of the group for the last many opportunities for the fashion industry —
%
decade. Long-term leaders include, among others, but also many risks. The latter emanate mainly
Nike, LVMH and Inditex, which have more than from the evolving macroeconomic environment
doubled their economic profit over the past ten and the potential for disruption from shifting
years — according to MGFI estimates each racked trading relationships (see trend articles on
up more than $2 billion in economic profit in “Caution Ahead” and “Trade 2.0” for more
2017. The most resilient winners included luxury, background.) It is useful to view the industry’s
sportswear and fast fashion players, reinforcing potential future through four separate lenses, each
of which offer a perspective on the most important
108
86
93
70
97
97
73
81
efficiency are key drivers of sustainable business drivers of growth and key topics covered in this
models. Over time North American department report. The lenses are industry and regional
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
stores lost out, with none remaining in the top 20, performance, market segment performance,
compared with three 10 years ago — a stark illus- product category performance and overall
Financial Crisis tration of the fragility of the traditional retailing operating profit performance.
Based on publicly listed companies. Source: McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) model. Notably, online players have yet to break
94 95
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
96 97
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
Exhibit 21:
98 99
Glossary
3D knitting Costs of goods sold (COGS) Generation Z (Gen Z) MEA Platform-as-a-service User interface (UI)
Manufacturing of a piece of clothing in one piece An income statement item stating the total costs Demographic cohort born circa 1995–2014, Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Benin, Capabilities extend from container The intersection where an information devices
based on a digital design. used to create a product or service, which has following the millennial generation. Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, orchestration, code management and and users interact. Most common examples
been sold. Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, continuous deployment, to highly sophisticated include interactive aspects of operating systems
A/B testing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of machine learning platforms that commoditise and interfaces of digital applications.
Experiments comparing two variants of a page Customer decision journey Macroeconomic measure of the market value Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, much of what is cutting-edge.
and determining which performs better for The journey of customer decision making, of all final goods and services produced in a Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Value segments
achieving a given goal. comprised of four primary phases: initial country within a defined period. Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Ivory Price segments in MGFI Segmentation of the fashion markets and
consideration; active evaluation, or the process Coast, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, As definitions of market segments often vary participating companies used in the McKinsey
APAC (emerging): of researching potential purchases; closure, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, across sources, all companies in the MGFI Global Fashion Index and the BoF-McKinsey
American Samoa, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, when consumers buy brands; and post purchase, A global organisation with a stated mission to Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, are categorised based on a Sales Price Index, State of Fashion Survey. The companies are
Cambodia, China, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, when consumers experience them. “foster global monetary cooperation, secure Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, providing a range of prices for a standard basket categorised in 6 segments, which are based
Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, financial stability, facilitate international trade, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, of products within each segment and home on a price index across a wide basked of goods
Macau, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Customer relationship management (CRM) promote high employment and sustainable Qatar, Réunion, Rwanda, Sao Tomé e Príncipe, market — thereby relying only on a quantitative and geographies. The segments comprise from
Nepal, New Caledonia, North Korea, Papua New The strategy and processes for managing the economic growth, and reduce poverty around Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra measure, whereby companies in each segment lowest to highest price segment: Discount,
Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, company’s relationships and interactions with the world.” Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, price their items similarly. Value, Mid-market, Premium/Bridge,
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, existing and potential customers. Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Affordable Luxury, Luxury.
Vietnam. Initial public offering (IPO) Togo, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uganda, United Public cloud
Earnings before interests and taxes (EBIT) Very first sale of stock issued by a company on Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zambia, Computing services offered by third-party Visual search
APAC (mature): An income statement item that is calculated public markets. Zimbabwe. providers over the public internet, making Search tool designed to yield information based
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, by deducting operating costs and the costs them available to anyone who wants to use or on a visual based input, such as a photograph.
Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan. of running the business from total revenue. Invested capital Microfactory purchase them.
EBIT is the income a firm makes from its core The total amount of investments made by Small, typically localised production designed Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Application programming interface (API) operations. holders of both a company’s debt and its equity. to handle end-to-end fabrication, leveraging Pull based supply chain Calculation of a firms cost of capital in which
Communication protocols and tool for enabling a variety of capabilities including 3D printing Supply chain constructed to be responsive to each category of capital (debt and equity) is
access to various features or data of another Earnings before interests, tax, depreciation Landed cost price and welding. Microfactories are often used for customer demands. Products enter the supply proportionately weighted. It is the minimum
service. and amortisation (EBITDA) Cost of a garment sourced internationally prototyping and small batch production. chain only when customer demands justify it. return that the holders of a company’s debt and
The State of Fashion 2019
An income statement item that deducts including production, transportation fees, equity expect given the risks associated with
Artificial Intelligence (AI) depreciation and amortisation from EBIT. An duties and other costs at the time of the arrival Millennials (Generation Y/Gen Y) Push based supply chain investing in the company.
The theory and development of computer alternative measure of income a firm makes at the target port. Demographic cohort born circa 1982–99. Are Supply chain based on forward looking
systems able to perform tasks that normally from its core operations. also commonly referred to as Generation Y (this projections of customer demands. Productions White label
require human intelligence, such as visual LatAm name is based on Generation X, the generation levels are predetermined and “pushed” to the A product or service, sold from a company to
perception, speech recognition, decision- Earned media value (EMV) Anguilla, Antigua, Argentina, Aruba, Bahamas, that preceded them). market. a reseller, that is rebranded and packaged to
making and translation between languages. Media exposure gained through means Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Brazil, appear as proprietary to the reseller.
other than paid advertising or owned media. British Virgin Islands, , Cayman Islands, MSCI Selling, general and administrative expenses
B-Corporations Commonly used to measure influencer and Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curacao, Global stock market index of used as a common (SG&A) “Woke”
For-profit companies certified by B-Lab, a social media marketing. Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El benchmark for the “global” stock market. An income statement item stating all costs not A phrase defined as “alert to injustice in
global nonprofit, which requires them to meet Salvador, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, directly tied to making a product or service. society,” popularised on social media and
various social, environmental, accounting and Economic profit Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Nearshore often associated with the Black Lives Matter
transparency standards. Measure for value add created by businesses, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Sourcing markets that are near a base country, Shoppability movement.
whereby opportunity costs are deducted from Sint Maarten, Suriname, St Kitts, St Lucia, typically sharing a border. Advantages of Ease of turning a desire into a purchase from a
Blockchain revenues earned. A company creates value St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and nearshore markets include geographic consumer’s perspective. World Input Output Database (WIOD)
A cryptographic or encoded ledger comprising when its operating profit exceeds the dollar cost Tobago, , Uruguay, Venezuela. proximity, shared time zones and cultural and To assess how the textiles and apparel value
a digital log of transactions shared across a of capital. Economic Profit is defined as Net political linkages. Software-as-a-service chain is changing in our article “Global Value
network. Operating Profit, less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT) Key performance indicator (KPI) Software distribution model in which a Chains in Apparel: The New China Effect”, we
minus Capital Charge (WACC multiplied by A quantifiable measure used to evaluate the NOPLAT third-party provider hosts applications and use the 2016 release of the World Input Output
BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey Invested Capital). success of an organisation in meeting objectives Net Operating Profit, less Adjusted Taxes makes them available to customers over the Database (WIOD), which we extended back to
Proprietary joint survey by the Business of for performance. (NOPLAT) is the value a company created Internet. 1995 and forward to 2017.
Fashion and McKinsey. It asks international Europe (Emerging) through its core operations net of tax, if the
fashion executives and experts to rate their Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Machine learning company had no debt. It is calculated as EBIT South-South trade
business sentiment, investment plans, and Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, A form of artificial intelligence that automates multiplied by 1 minus the tax rate. Trade between developing economies, also
industry trends. 274 respondents participated Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, analytical model building, enabling systems to known as countries of the Global South.
in the State of Fashion Survey for the State Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, “learn” with minimal human intervention. North America
of Fashion 2019 report between August and Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Canada, Puerto Rico, United States of America. S&P 500
September 2018. Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine. Made-to-measure American stock market index consisting of 500
A clothing item specifically made to fit an Organisation for Economic Co-operation largest companies by market capitalisation.
Challenger brands Europe (Mature) individual. and Development (OECD)
Brands deploying a non-traditional go-to- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, An intergovernmental economic organisation Telemetry
market model (e.g., online direct to consumer, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) with the stated mission to “promote policies that An automated process of collecting information
exclusively digital marketing) competing Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Proprietary and copyrighted McKinsey tool will improve the economic and social well-being from remote points and transmitting to a
against established brands. Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, that provides a global and holistic industry of people around the world.” receiving hub.
Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. benchmark for the entire fashion industry. The
Chatbot MGFI was first created for The State of Fashion Omnichannel Unorganised retail (India)
An AI-based computer programme that Foreign direct investment 2017 to track the industry performance through Sales approach that provides the customer with Retail sector consisting of private commercial
conducts auditory or text-based conversation. An investment made by a firm or individual three key variables: sales, operating profit and an integrated shopping experience across a enterprises not registered with the government;
in one country into controlling interests of an economic profit. This year MGFI is composed multitude of online and offline sales channels. typically self-employed individuals.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) entity in another country. of more than 500 public and private companies
Annualised average rate of growth between two spanning across market segments, product User experience (UX)
given years, assuming growth takes place at an Full-price sell-through categories and geographies. The analysis Overall experience, including emotions,
exponentially compounded rate. The proportion of inventory that a retailer sells of public companies is built with data from perceptions, and reactions, to the usage of a
at the full (non-discounted) price to consumers. McKinsey Corporate Performance Analytics. product or service. UX design refers to the
optimisation of the experience.
100 101
Endnotes
resale_report/2018/2018-resaleReport.pdf 2018, https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/ 73 “Shu, Catherine, Syte.ai’s new API makes
suzynyfw-jeremy-scott-presents-creative-anger visual search accessible to more online
44 Remy, Nathalie, Speelmann, Eveline, and fashion retailers”, TechCrunch, 7th December
Swartz, Steven; “Style that’s suistainable: 60 Singh, Supriya, “Uniqlo opens its doors 2017, https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/07/
A new fast fashion formula”, McKinsey & to job-seeking asylum-seekers at home and syte-ais-new-api-makes-visual-search-
Company October 2016, https://www.mckinsey. abroad”, The Japan Times, 4th January accessible-to-more-online-fashion-retailers/
com/business-functions/sustainability- 2018, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/
and-resource-productivity/our-insights/ news/2018/01/04/national/social-issues/ 74 “ViSenze Unveils Shoppable User Generated
style-thats-sustainable-a-new-fast-fashion- uniqlo-opens-doors-job-seeking-asylum- Content Powered by Computer Vision at
formula seekers-home-abroad/#.W6uvfmhKg2w Shoptalk 2018”, BusinessWire, 19th March
1 “World Economic Outlook DataMapper - Real 15 “Basic road statistics of India, 2015-16”, McKinsey & Company, September 2018,
2018, https://www.businesswire.com/news/
GDP growth”, International Monetary Fund, Government of India, http://morth.nic.in/ https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/ 45 “Once worn, thrice shy – British women’s 61 Brown, Pamela, Stacey Haas, Sophie home/20180319006120/en/ViSenze-Unveils-
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/ showfile.asp?lid=3100 our-insights/digitization-the-next-stop-for- wardrobe habits exposed!”, Barnardo’s, 11th Marchessou, and Cyrielle Villepelet, Shoppable-User-Generated-Content-Powered
NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/ the-apparel-sourcing-caravan June 2015, http://www.barnardos.org.uk/news/ “Shattering the glass runway”, McKinsey
WEOWORLD, “GDP growth (annual %)”, 16 “Our partnerships with global brands”,
press_releases.htm?ref=105244 & Company, October 2018, https://www. 75 “ViSenze, The Global Leader for AI Powered
The World Bank, https://data.worldbank. Reliance Retail, https://relianceretail.com/ 29 McKinsey & Company analysis based on UN
mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/ Visual Shopping, Raises US$10.5 Million
org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg, and “Real partner-brands.html Comtrade data 46 “Coutts Passion Index 2017”, Coutts, 6th shattering-the-glass-runway In Series B Funding”, PR Newswire, 15th
GDP forecast”, Organisation for Economic September 2017, https://www.coutts.com/ September 2016, https://www.prnewswire.com/
17 “Income Inequality and Poverty”, OECD 30 Holland, Steve and David Lawder, “Trump
Co-operation and Development, https:// insight-articles/news/2017/coutts-passion- 62 Kochkodin, Brandon, “Buzz From Nike’s news-releases/visenze-the-global-leader-for-ai-
Centre for Opportunity and Equality, http:// hails Canada, Mexico trade pact as win for U.S.
data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast. assets-index-2017.html Kaepernick Campaign Now Worth More Than powered-visual-shopping-raises-us105-million-
www.oecd.org/els/soc/inequality-and-poverty. workers”, Reuters, 1st October 2018, https://
htm#indicator-chart $163 Million”, Bloomberg, 6th September in-series-b-funding-300327869.html
htm uk.reuters.com/article/uk-trade-nafta/ 47 McKinsey analysis based on: Sherman, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/
2 “Economic Conditions Snapshot, September trump-says-trade-pact-with-canada-mexico- Lauren, “The price of transparency”, Business
18 Biswas Soutik, “Why inequality in India articles/2018-09-06/value-of-nike-s-exposure- 76 Shannon, Sarah, “Fast Fashion
2018: McKinsey Global Survey results”, will-support-u-s-jobs-idUKKCN1MB28M of Fashion, 17th June 2016, https://www.
is at its highest level in 92 years”, BBC, 12th from-kaepernick-ad-up-to-163-million Slow to E-Commerce”, The Business of
McKinsey & Company businessoffashion.com/articles/intelligence/ Fashion, 17th August 2017, https://www.
September 2017, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ 31 “World Trade Report 2014”, World Trade
the-price-of-transparency; and based on prices 63 Taylor, Steve, “Primark’s Pride Range businessoffashion.com/articles/intelligence/
3 Politi, James and Stefania Palma, “IMF world-asia-india-41198638 Organization, 2014, https://www.wto.org/
displayed on Louis Vuitton country web pages Is A Disgrace”, Huffington Post, 24th fast-fashion-slow-to-e-commerce
readies for further danger signals in emerging english/res_e/booksp_e/world_trade_
19 “Corruption Perceptions Index 2017”, in August 2018 May 2018, https://www.huffingtonpost.
markets”, The Financial Times, 11th report14_e.pdf
Transparency International, 21st February co.uk/entry/theres-no-pride-in-primark_ 77 “2018 Edelman Trust Barometer Global
October 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/ 48 “The RealReal – What’s in your closet?”, uk_5b068b2fe4b01a19d2c96bc3, and Busby, Report”, Edelman, 2018, https://cms.edelman.
2018, https://www.transparency.org/news/ 32 Gene Tempest, “The president’s new
db4c046a-cd3e-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956 CNBC, 22nd May 2018, https://www. Mattha and Emma Snaith, “Stonewall and com/sites/default/files/2018-01/2018%20
feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017 clothes,” PBS American Experience online,
cnbc.com/2018/05/22/the-realreal-2018- Primark criticised for Pride T-shirts made Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20
4 Sandra Halliday, “Wolford speeds up cost PBS, 16th February, 2017, https://www.pbs.
20 Russel, Michelle, “AAFA again calls for swift disruptor-50.html in Turkey”, The Guardian, 2nd August 2018, Global%20Report.pdf and “Millennials: Burden,
cuts, axes more jobs”, Fashion Network, 16th org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/
resolution to tariff dispute”, Just Style, 22nd presidents-new-clothes/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ blessing, or both?”, McKinsey & Company,
October 2017, http://in.fashionnetwork.com/ 49 Thomas, Lauren, “Online start-up The
August 2018, https://www.just-style.com/news/ aug/02/stonewall-and-primark-criticised- February 2016, https://www.mckinsey.com/
news/Wolford-speeds-up-cost-cuts-axes-more- RealReal to open its second luxury consignment
aafa-again-calls-for-swift-resolution-to-tariff- 33 Ayoki, Milton (2017): The impact of pride-t-shirts-made-in-turkey-lgbt-rights business-functions/organization/our-insights/
jobs,880484.html#.W4Z-FugzaMo store, as e-commerce brands keep growing”,
dispute_id134314.aspx multi-fibre agreement phase-out on millennials-burden-blessing-or-both
CNBC, 31st July 2018, https://www.cnbc. 64 Guilbert, Kieran, “Adidas, Nike urged
The State of Fashion 2019
102 103
Endnotes cont. Infographics
Affair With ‘Drops’ More Than Marketing?”, 105 Jain, Varun, “Flipkart Fashion looks to names-product-chief-from-Hilfiger,1012811. The State of Fashion 2019 infographics: Infographics: Exhibit 14. Aspiration level for shift to
The Business of Fashion, 9th August 2018, extend market share with Big Billion Days”, html#.W7tsG2hKg2w nearshoring
https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/ The Economic Times, 1st October 2018, https:// 1. Caution ahead Exhibit 1-4. Industry outlook Source: Andersson, Johanna, Achim
professional/is-luxurys-love-affair-with- retail.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/e- 118 Lee, Tommy, “Amazon goes automated Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey, Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey, Berg, Saskia Hedrich and Karl-Hendrik
supreme-style-drops-more-than-marketing- commerce/e-tailing/flipkart-fashion-looks- with on-demand clothing”, Textile Evolution, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & The Business of Fashion and McKinsey &
19th April 2017, https://www.tevonews.com/ Magnus et al., “Is apparel manufacturing
moncler-burberry-off-white-celine to-extend-market-share-with-big-billion- Company, September 2018 Company, September 2018
textile-machinery-news/846-amazon-goes- coming home?”, McKinsey & Company,
days/66028974
88 Wolf, Cam, “Even Comme des Garçons Is automated-with-on-demand-clothing October 2018, https://www.mckinsey.
2. Indian ascent Exhibit 5. Expected changes in global
Launching a Direct-to-Consumer Brand”, GQ, 106 Singh, Prachi, “FarFetch net loss widens com/industries/retail/our-insights/
119 Nussey, Sam, “Uniqlo owner aims to make Source: “Global Smartphone User Penetration economic conditions, in 6 months
2nd April 2018, https://www.gq.com/story/ but revenues jump 74 percent”, Fashion United, is-apparel-manufacturing-coming-home
on-demand knitwear with Japan’s Shima Seiki”, Forecast by 88 Countries: 2007 – 2022”, Source: Smit, Sven, “Economic Conditions
comme-des-garcons-new-brand-announcement 15th November 2017, https://fashionunited.uk/
news/business/farfetch-net-loss-widens-but- Reuters, 13th July 2018, https://uk.reuters. Strategy Analytics, 2017 Snapshot, September 2018: McKinsey Global Exhibit 15. Automation of sewing will be the
89 “LVMH launches accelerator program revenues-jump-74-percent/2017111526787 com/article/fast-retailing-shima-seiki/ Survey results”, McKinsey & Company, biggest driver of labour reduction
for 50 international startups annually at update-1-uniqlo-owner-aims-to-make-on- 3. Trade 2.0 September 2018, https://www.mckinsey. Source: Estimates by McKinsey & Company and
Station F to contribute to innovation in 107 Crockett, Zachary, “Sh*t, I’m F*cked: demand-knitwear-with-japans-shima-seiki- Source: Smit, Sven, “Economic Conditions com/business-functions/strategy- ITA at RWTH Aachen
luxury”, LVMH, 10th April 2018, https:// Jason Goldberg, Founder of Fab”, The Hustle, idUKL4N1U92ZW Snapshot, September 2018: McKinsey Global and-corporate-finance/our-insights/
www.lvmh.com/news-documents/news/ 17th October 2017, https://thehustle.co/ Survey results”, McKinsey & Company,
120 Okutso, Akane, “Uniqlo to debut on-demand economic-conditions-snapshot-september- Exhibit 16. Nearshoring and automation will
lvmh-launches-accelerator-program-for-50- jason-goldberg-fab September 2018, https://www.mckinsey.
knitwear to counter Zozo”, Nikkei Asia Review, 2018-mckinsey-global-survey-results be important enablers to reach a circular
international-startups-annually-at-station-f- com/business-functions/strategy-
to-contribute-to-innovation-in-luxury/ 108 Kapner, Susan, “Hudson’s Bay Sells Gilt 15th July 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/ value chain
Groupe, Will Close Lord & Taylor Flagship Business/Companies/Uniqlo-to-debut-on- and-corporate-finance/our-insights/ Exhibit 6. Real GDP CAGR Source: Interviews with experts; McKinsey &
90 Nielsen Retail Measurement, 2018 Store”, The Wall Street Journal, 5th June demand-knitwear-to-counter-Zozo economic-conditions-snapshot-september- Source: McKinsey & Company analysis based Company
2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ 2018-mckinsey-global-survey-results on Economist Intelligence Unit CountryData,
91 McKinsey Start-up and Investment gilt-groupe-sold-to-rival-rue-la-la-1528154398 121 “The “ZOZOSUIT” developed by Start https://store.eiu.com/product/countrydata Exhibit 17-21. McKinsey Global Fashion
Landscape Analysis Today Reaches 1 Million Orders, and the Private 4.End of ownership Index (MGFI)
109 “Flipkart unveils its “AI For India” Brand “ZOZO” Aims for 20 Billion Yen for its Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey, Exhibit 7. Belief that changes in trade policy Source: McKinsey Global Fashion Index based
92 McKinsey millennial survey program”, India Digital Review, 2018, First-Year Sales”, ZOZ, 1st May 2018, https:// The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & will pose potential risks to global economic on McKinsey Corporate Performance Analytics
http://indiadigitalreview.com/ corp.zozo.com/en/news/20180501-3849/ Company, September 2018 growth
93 McKinsey web research and store visits, data, McKinsey & Company, 2018
The State of Fashion 2019
flipkart-unveils-ai-india-program/
February 2018 122 New textiles economy: Redesigning Source: Smit, Sven, “Economic Conditions
5. Getting woke Snapshot, September 2018: McKinsey Global
110 “Zalando SE – More than just a retailer; fashion’s future, Ellen MacArthur
94 Nielsen Retail Measurement Service, 52 Source: EDITED analysis in partnership with Survey results”, McKinsey & Company,
upgrade to Outperform” RBC Capital Market Foundation, November 2017, https://www.
weeks ending April 2017 McKinsey & Company, September 2018
report, 12th March 2018 ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/ September 2018, https://www.mckinsey.
95 GlobalData craft beer share estimates, 2018 downloads/publications/A-New-Textiles- com/business-functions/strategy-
111 Berg, Achim, Saskia Hedrich and 6. Now or Never
Economy_Full-Report_Updated_1-12-17.pdf and-corporate-finance/our-insights/
Karl-Hendrik Magnus et al., “Is apparel Source: ”The urban delivery bet: USD 5 billion in
96 “Snack bar company Kind explores economic-conditions-snapshot-september-
stake sale”, Reuters, July 2017, https:// manufacturing coming home?”, McKinsey 123 Berg, Achim, Saskia Hedrich and venture capital at risk?”, McKinsey & Company,
& Company, October 2018, https://www. Karl-Hendrik Magnus et al., “Is apparel 2018-mckinsey-global-survey-results
www.reuters.com/article/us-kind-llc-m-a/ May 2017
snack-bar-company-kind-explores-stake-sale- mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/ manufacturing coming home?”, McKinsey
Exhibit 8. Expectations on consumer
sources-idUSKBN19S214 is-apparel-manufacturing-coming-home & Company, October 2018, https://www. 7. Radical transparency
mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/ appetite for new ownership models
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey,
97 “How an ex-lawyer built Halo Top into an 112 Hendriksz, Vivian, “Boohoo, Asos & is-apparel-manufacturing-coming-home Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey,
The Business of Fashion and McKinsey &
ice cream sensation with $347 million in sales”, Missguided pave the way for ‘Ultrafast The Business of Fashion and McKinsey &
Company, September 2018
CNBC, November 2018, https://www.cnbc. Fashion’”, Fashion United, 24th May 2017, 124 Manyika, James, Ramaswamy, Sree, Bughin, Company, September 2018
com/2018/11/01/halo-top-beat-ben--jerrys- https://fashionunited.uk/news/fashion/ Jacques et al., “Superstars - The dynamics of
8. Self disrupt
brings-in-hundreds-of-millions-in-sales.html boohoo-asos-missguided-pave-the-way-for- firms, sectors, and cities leading the global Exhibit 9. Total fashion, apparel and beauty
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2018
ultrafast-fashion/2017052424625 economy”, McKinsey Global Institute, October B-corps
2018 Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
98 “Fever-Tree upgrades forecasts as half Source: B Lab , a non profit organization listing
year revenue rises 45%”, The Drinks Business, 113 Berg, Achim, Saskia Hedrich and & Company, 2018
Karl-Hendrik Magnus et al., “Is apparel 125 Based on McKinsey trade flow database all B-corporations, data provided in August 2018
July 2018, https://www.thedrinksbusiness.
manufacturing coming home?”, McKinsey calculations and McKinsey Fashionscope 9. Digital landgrab
com/2018/07/fever-tree-upgrades-forecasts-as- Exhibit 10. Mobile continues to lag desktop
half-year-revenue-rises-45/ & Company, October 2018, https://www. market size estimates Source: McKinsey Global Fashion Index 2018
mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/ in sales conversion
based on McKinsey Corporate Performance
99 Euromonitor brand share estimates, 2016 is-apparel-manufacturing-coming-home Source: McKinsey Digital Opportunity Scan of
Analytics data, McKinsey & Company, 2018
48 apparel, jewelry, retailers in US, UK, Europe,
100 “TPG – Beauty’s Next Big Investor?”, 114 McKinsey & Company analysis based on 10. On demand Asia, September 2018
WWD, May 2018, https://wwd.com/ expert interviews
Source: Andersson, Johanna, Achim
beauty-industry-news/beauty-features/ Exhibit 11. Fashion executives anticipate
115 Crouch, Dorothy, “ShareCloth Streamlines Berg, Saskia Hedrich and Karl-Hendrik
tpg-beauty-next-big-investor-1202669250/ consumers’ need for transparency
On-Demand Apparel Manufacturing”, Magnus et al., “Is apparel manufacturing
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey,
101 McKinsey Start-up and Investment Apparel News, 12th July 2018, https://www. coming home?”, McKinsey & Company,
apparelnews.net/news/2018/jul/12/sharecloth- The Business of Fashion and McKinsey &
Landscape Analysis, Pitchbook October 2018, https://www.mckinsey.
streamlines-demand-apparel-manufacturin/ Company, September 2018
com/industries/retail/our-insights/
102 EDITED analysis in partnership with is-apparel-manufacturing-coming-home
McKinsey 116 Wiener, Anna, “Inside Adidas’ Robot- Exhibit 12. Instagram like – follower ratio
Powered, On-Demand Sneaker Factory”, Wired, (LFR) Source: McKinsey & Company analysis
103 IBID 29th November 2017, https://www.wired. based on Instagram data
com/story/inside-speedfactory-adidas-robot-
104 Thomas, Lauren, “Amazon’s 100 million powered-sneaker-factory/ Exhibit 13. 2017 average market
Prime members will help it become the No. 1 capitalization to EBITDA multiples
apparel retailer in the US”, CNBC, https://www. 117 Halliday, Sandra, “Superdry launches fast
Source: McKinsey Global Fashion Index 2018
cnbc.com/2018/04/19/amazon-to-be-the-no- fashion youth line, names product chief from
1-apparel-retailer-in-the-us-morgan-stanley. based on McKinsey Corporate Performance
Hilfiger”, Fashion Network, 12th September
html 2018, https://uk.fashionnetwork.com/news/ Analytics data, McKinsey & Company, 2018
Superdry-launches-fast-fashion-youth-line-
104 105
Contacts
For questions on the report or further discussions, please contact a member of McKinsey’s Apparel,
LONDON NEW YORK SHANGHAI
Fashion & Luxury global leadership team:
23-31 Great Titchfield Street 2403 Broome Street Unit 5-118, 3F,
6th Floor Suite 4a No819 West Nanjing Road
London W1W 7PA New York, NY 10013 Jiang’an District,
Shanghai
The State of Fashion 2019
FOR COMMERCIAL ENQUIRIES PLEASE CONTACT: FOR REPORT ENQUIRIES: FOR REGIONALLY FOCUSED ENQUIRIES: