Evaluating Technical Goals Project Costing

Evaluating Technical Goals
Project Costing
David Tipper
Associate Professor
Department of Information Science and
Telecommunications
University of Pittsburgh
Slides 3
http://www.sis.pitt.edu/~dtipper/2110.html
Technical Requirements & Constraints
• Technical Goals
– Scalability
– Availability/reliability
– Network Performance
• Utilization, Throughput, Delay, Delay Jitter, packet loss rate,
call/connection blocking rate
– Security
– Manageability/Interoperability
– Affordability $$
• Need to determine reasonable goal for each
category and the relative importance of each
• For Availability and Performance simple models
are useful to set goals and evaluate designs
TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 2
1
Availability
• Availability is the amount of time a network is available
to users
• Can be expressed as percent uptime
– 165 hours in 168 hours/week = 98.21%
• Availability Goals depend on application and user
requirements – may vary with location
– Highly available voice service at customer support call center
– Lower available voice over IP service in engineering dept.
– 99.999% => downtime = .00001 x 60 x 24 x 365 = 5.25 minutes per year!
Availability level Downtime per year

99.999% 5.25 min
99.97% 157.68 min
99.9% 8 hours 46 min
99% 87 hours 4 min
Availability
• Availability (A)
– Ability of an item to perform stated function at over time
– Fraction of the time that an item can be used when needed
– Value in the 0.0 to 1.0 range
– Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)

• An average time to restore a full functionality to an item
– This may include time to diagnose, isolate, remove and replace the failed
part
– MTTF: Mean-Time To Failure
– MTBF: Mean-Time Between Failures – more a reliability measure
MTTF
A = lim ⎨
⎧ Uptime ⎫
MTTR MTTF MTTR
A=
Tobs →∞
⎩ Tobs ⎭
⎬ MTBF MTTF + MTTR
TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 Failure Repair Failure Repair 4
2
MTBF – Physical Cable
• Physical cables
– MTBF can be specified using the Cable Cut (CC)
metric
• Average cable length that results in a single cable cut per
year
• CC = 450 km means that per 450 km cable, there will be on
average on cable cut each year
(CC × 365 × 24)
MTBF ( hours ) =
length of the cable (km)
– Example, given CC = 450km and cable length = 260
km,
450km × 365 × 24h
MTBFcable = = 15161.5h
260km
Unavailability
• Unavailability (U)
– The fraction of the time that an item cannot be
used when needed
• U=1–A
• Other expressions for unavailability
– Downtime per year
• Downtime in units of minutes per year
• Obtained by multiplying U by minutes in a year
– 0.99999 availability,
– 0.00001 unavailability,
– 5.256 downtime per year (in minutes), and
3
System Availability
• System availability calculated from
component availability Ai
• If devices in series n
Aseries = ∏ Ai
i =1
… n
1 2 n Us ≈ ∑ U i
i =1
• If devices in parallel n
1 U parallel = ∏ U i
i =1
2 n
Aparallel = 1 − ∏ (1 − Ai )
…
n i =1
System Availability - Example

A single bidirectional line in WDM optical network
Line System
Line System
WDM
WDM
OA OA
80km 100km 80km
Equipment MTBF (hrs) MTTR (hrs) • The availability of the

bidirectional line
Bidirectional OA 5*105 24 system = ?
Bidirectional 5*105 6
WDM Line
System
Equipment CC (km) MTTR (hrs)

Terrestrial Fiber 450 24
Optic Cable
4
System Availability - Example
• Devices in series
• Availability of a bidirectional line (Aline)
Aline = Acable × AOA

2
× Aline
2
− system
MTTRcable MTTROA 2 MTTRline − system 2

= (1 − ) × (1 − ) × (1 − )
MTBFcable MTBFOA MTBFlline − system
24h 24h 2 6h 2
= (1 − ) × (1 − ) × (1 − )
15161.5h 5 × 10 h
5
5 × 105 h
= 0.998297
450km × 365 × 24h
Note. MTBFcable = = 15161.5h
260km
Series-Parallel Reduction
For complex systems need to apply series parallel
reduction to determine overall availablity
+ series
|| parallel
5
Availability Analysis
• General Methodology:
1) Get unavailability values of all components and sub-systems.
2) Draw parallel and series availability relationships
3) Reduce the system availability model by repeated applications of
the parallel/series availability simplifications.
4) If not completely reduced, do quick unavailability lower bound
estimation
– Contributions of parallel elements to the unavailability are not
taken into account
B D F
A
C G H
E
Lower bound of Us: UA+UH
Network Performance
• Several Performance measures
– Utilization
– Throughput
– Accuracy (BER, Packet Loss)
– Efficiency
– Delay and Delay Jitter
– Call Blocking for circuit switched networks
• Typically look at measures during the busy period of the
day set threshold values
• Need to know how to estimate values
• Approaches when designing network limited to
– Queueing Analysis – analytical models
– Simulation – measurements on computer model of the network
design
6
Queueing Theory
• Queueing theory : Mathematical analysis of waiting

lines
• Queueing Theory is the primary analytical framework
for evaluating performance in the initial stage of
system design.
• Analytical Model of the system – based on stochastic
processes
• Approximates real system by focusing on contention at
shared resources.
• Examples: shared medium router, window flow controlled session,
time shared computer system
Model of Router
7
Nomenclature of a Queueing System
• The input process – how customers arrive

• The system structure – waiting space – number of servers, etc.
• The service process
• Kendall’s Notation 1/2/3/4/5/6
– A Shorthand notation to describe a queueing system containing a
queueing system.
– 1 : Customer arriving pattern (Interarrival times distribution).
– 2 : Service pattern (Service-times distribution).
– 3 : Number of parallel servers.
– 4 : System capacity.
– 5 : Queueing discipline.
– 6: Customer Population
Characteristics of the Input Process

1. The size of the arriving population
– Infinite : the number of potential customers from external
sources is very large as compared to those in the system.
– Finite : the arrival process (rate) is affected by the number of
customers already in the system.
2. Arrival pattern
– Customers may arrive at a queueing system either in some
regular pattern or totally random fashion
• When customers arrive regularly at a fixed interval, the arriving
pattern can be easily described by a single number − the rate of
arrival
• When customers arrive according to some random fashion, the
arriving pattern is described by statistical distribution.
8
• Probability distribution that are commonly used
to describe the arrival process are:
– M : Markovian (or memoryless), implies the Poisson
process for arrivals – means the number of arrivals
over a time interval has a Poisson distribution – this is
equivalent to the time between customers arriving
being exponentially distributed.
– D : Deterministic, fixed interarrival times
– Ek: Erlang distribution of order k
– G : General probability distribution
– GI: General and independent (inter-arrival time)
distribution.
3. Behavior of the arriving customers

♦ Customer arriving at a queueing system may
behave differently when the system is full
(due to finite waiting space) or when all
servers are busy.
♦ Blocking System :
The arriving customers when the system is full are
considered lost.
♦ Non-Blocking System:
The arriving customers are placed in queues of infinite size.
9
Characteristics of the System Structure
1. Physical number and layout of servers

♦ Assume only parallel and identical servers
♦ A customer at the head of the queue can go to
any server who is free, and leave the system after
receiving this service from that server.
2. The system capacity
♦ The system capacity is the maximum number
of customers that a queueing system can
accommodate, inclusive of those customers
at the service facility.
Characteristics of the Service Process
3. Characteristics of the Service process.

♦ Queueing discipline
♦ First-Come-First-Served (FCFS/FIFO)
♦ Last-Come-First-Served (LCFS)
♦ Priority
♦ Process sharing
♦ Random
♦ Service distribution
• M : Markovian (or memoryless), implies the Poisson process.
• D : Deterministic, constant service times
• Ek: Erlang distribution of order k service time distribution
• G : General service time distribution
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Basic Queues
• Four Basic Queueing models are used in

network design
• Data networks and database systems
– M/M/1
– M/M/1/K
• Telephony
– M/M/C ⇒ Erlang C
– M/M/C/C ⇒ Erlang B
Markovian Queues Analysis

• Develop state transition diagram
– System state is indicated by the number of
customers in the system at time t ⇒ {n(t), t≥0}
• Flow Balance Equations
– Derive steady state probability πi = P{n(t) = i}
∑ flow in = ∑ flow out
∑πi =1
∀i
• Apply Little’s theorem to obtain mean

performance metrics. L = λW
11
M/M/1 Queue
• Single server system with infinite capacity.
λ μ λ
λ λ λ λ
μ μ μ μ
λπ 0 = μπ 1 j=0
( λ + μ )π j = λπ j −1 + μπ j +1 j>0
M/M/1 Continued
π n = ρ n (1 − ρ )
where ⎛ λ ⎞
⎜⎜ ρ = ⎟⎟ < 1
⎝ μ ⎠
Mean Number in System L Mean Delay W

ρ 1
L = ∑ i ×π i = W=
i (1 − ρ ) (μ − λ )
Variance of number in system σL Variance of Delay σW

ρ 1
σL = σW =
(1 − ρ ) 2 μ (1− ρ )2
2
12
M/M/1 Example
• Consider a concentrator that receives messages
from a group of terminals and transmits them
over a single transmission line.
• The packets arrive according to a Poisson
process with one packet every 2.5 ms and the
packet transmission times are exponentially
distributed with a mean of 2 ms. That is the
arrival rate = 1 packet/2.5 ms = 400 packets/sec
• Service rate = 1packet/2ms = 500 packets/sec
– Find the average delay through the system
• Utilization = ρ = 400/500 = .8
– Delay W = 1/(500 – 400) = .01 secs = 10 msecs
M/M/1/K
• The system has a finite capacity of size K.
λe = λ (1 − Pb )
λ μ λ
λ Pb
• The state space will be truncated at state K.
13
M/M/1/K
λ λ λ λ λ λ λ
μ μ μ μ μ μ μ
λπ 0 = μπ 1 j=0
(λ + μ )π j = λπ j −1 + μπ j +1 1≤ j < K
μπ j = λπ j −1 j=K
M/M/1/K
π n = ρ nπ 0 n≤K
where
λ
ρ= Normalized offered load
μ
0< ρ <∞
Solving steady flow equations results in
(1 − ρ ) ρ n
πn = ρ ≠1
1 − ρ K +1
1
πn = ρ =1
K +1
14
M/M/1/K
Probability of blocking (Pb) = Loss Rate
(1 − ρ ) ρ K ρ ≠1
Pb = π k =
1 − ρ K +1
1
Pb = π k = ρ =1
K +1
Portion of traffic dropped/rejected = λ⋅ Pb
Effective throughput of the system
λe= λ (1-Pb) ⇐ effective arrival rate
Example M/M/1/10
Notice how it is nonlinear
M/M/1/K
Effective server utilization : (actual utilization of the system)
λ (1 − Pb ) λe
ρe = =
μ μ
Average number in the system
K
ρ ( K + 1) ρ K +1
ρ ≠1 L= ∑ iπ i = 1− ρ
−
1 − ρ K +1
i=0
K k
⎛ 1 ⎞
ρ =1
L= ∑ iπ i = ∑ i ⎜⎝ K + 1 ⎟⎠
i=0 i=0
k
⎛ 1 ⎞
=⎜ ⎟∑ i
⎝ K + 1 ⎠i = 0
K
=
2
15
M/M/1/K
Other performance measures
L
Mean Delay W=
λe
1
Mean Queueing Delay Wq =W −
μ
Mean Number in Queue Lq = L− ρe
M/M/1/K Example
• Consider the queue at an output port of router. The transmission link

is a T1 line (1.544Mbps), packets arrive according to a Poisson
process with mean rate λ = 659.67 packets/sec, the packet lengths are
exponentially distributed with a mean length of 2048 bits/packet.
• If the system size is 16 packets what is the packet loss rate?
model as M/M/1/16 queue with
λ = 659.67 , μ= 1.544 Mbps/2048 bits per packet = 753.9 packets/sec
ρ = λ/μ = 0.875
Thus the packet loss rate = blocking probability
(1 − ρ ) ρ K (1 − .875).87516
Pb = = = 0.0165
1 − ρ K +1 1 − .87517
16
M/M/C
• C identical servers processes customers in

parallel.
• Infinite system capacity.
μ
λ λ
M/M/C
λ λ λ λ λ λ
μ 2μ 3μ (C − 1) μ Cμ Cμ
Flow Balance Equations
λπ 0 = μπ 1 j=0
(λ + jμ )π j = λπ j −1 + ( j + 1) μπ j +1 1≤ j < C
(λ + Cμ )π j = λπ j −1 + Cμπ j +1 j≥C
17
M/M/C
The server utilization (ρ)
λ
ρ=
Cμ
The traffic intensity (a) ⇐ offered load (Erlangs)
λ
a=
μ
The stability requirement
a
ρ= <1 ⇒ a<C
C
With traffic intensity a Erlangs, C is the minimum number of servers requirement.
M/M/C
Solving for the state probabilities yields
1
π0 = C −1 n
a ac
∑ n! (c − 1)! (c − a )
+
n=0
ai
πi = π0 ; 1≤ i < C
i!
ai
πi = π0 ; i≥C
c! c i − c
18
M/M/C
Probability of a customer being delayed C(c,a)
ac
∞
( c − 1)! ( c − a )
C (c , a ) = ∑π j = c −1 n
a ac
j=c
∑ n! (c − 1)! (c − a )
+
n=0
C(c,a) ⇐ Erlang’s C formula

Erlang’s delay formula
Erlangs second formula
In the telephone system,

C(c,a) represents a blocked call delayed (BCD).
M/M/C
Other performance measures
⎛ a ⎞
Lq = ⎜ ⎟ ⋅ C (c, a )
⎝c−a⎠
L = Lq + a
1
C (c, a )
Lq μ
Wq = =
λ c−a
1
W = Wq +
μ
19
M/M/C
Distribution of the waiting time in the queue
{ }
P wq ≤ t = 1 − C ( c , a ) ⋅ e − cμ (1− ρ ) t
The pth percentile of the time spent waiting in the queue tp

⎛ 1− p ⎞
− ln ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
tp = ⎝ C (c, a ) ⎠
cμ (1 − ρ )
Note: p > 1 - C(c,a)
M/M/C Example
• Consider a mail order retail company that receives phone orders

according to a Poisson process at a mean rate of one call every 2
minutes. The calls have a mean duration of 3.5 minutes. How many
operators are required to keep the percentage of customers placed
on hold below 20%?
• The load in Erlangs is a = .5 calls/minute x 3.5 minutes/ call = 1.75

calculating the probability a call is delayed
C(c,a) we get C(2,1.75) = .8167
C(3,1.75) = .3337
C(4,1.75) = .1184
• Thus we need 4 operators to achieve the desired percentage of
customers placed on hold.
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M/M/C/C
• C identical servers processes customers in

parallel.
• The system has a finite capacity of size C.
μ
λe = λ (1 − Pb )
λ λe
λ Pb
M/M/C/C
λ λ λ λ λ
μ 2μ 3μ (C − 1) μ Cμ
λπ 0 = μπ 1 j=0
(λ + jμ )π j = λπ j −1 + ( j + 1) μπ j +1 1≤ j < C
(Cμ )π c = λπ c −1 j=C
21
M/M/C/C
1
π0 = c
an
∑ n!
n=0
ai
ai
π i = π 0 = c i! ∀i = 1,2,...c
i! an
∑ n!
n=0
M/M/C/C
Probability of a customer being blocked B(c,a)

c
a
c!
B (c, a ) = π c = ⇐ Valid for M/G/c/c queue
c
an
∑ n!
n=0
B(c,a) ⇐ Erlang’s B formula

Erlang’s blocking formula
Erlangs first formula
In the telephone system,

B(c,a) represents a blocked call cleared (BCC).
22
M/M/C/C
Erlang B formula can be computed from the recursive formula

a ⋅ B ( c − 1, a )
B (c, a ) =
c + a ⋅ B ( c − 1, a )
Erlang B formula can be used to computer Erlang C formula
c ⋅ B (c, a )
C (c, a ) =
c − a ⋅ (1 − B ( c , a ))
Note : C(c,a) > B(c,a)
M/M/C/C
The carried load

λe = λ ⋅ (1 − B ( c , a )) ⇐ Effective throughput of the system
a
Mean server utilization ρe = ⋅ (1 − B ( c , a ))
c
a
Mean number in the system L= ⋅ (1 − B ( c , a ))
μ
1
Average delay in the system W =
μ
23
Traffic Engineering Erlang B table
M/M/C/C/ Example
• Consider a corporate PBX connecting 250 phones to the local
phone network. During the busy hour the company sees on average
1 outside call per phone with a average duration of 4 minutes per
call. How many DS0s are need to connect the PBX to the local
phone company and have a call blocking rate of 1%?
• The load is per phone is aphone =1/60 calls per minute x 4
minutes/call = 0.0667 Erlangs
• The load on the PBX is aPBX= 205 x 0.0667 = 16.667 Erlangs
• From the Erlang B table we need 26 DSOs
24
Traffic Engineering Example
Project Costing
• Review of Economics
• Value of money changes with time
– Inflation causes future dollars to be worth less than
today’s dollars
– Investment risk devalues future dollars
proportionately to the risk
• Elements
– Future value (F)
– Present value (P)
– Rate (i)
– Annuity (A) - A sequence of uniform payments
– Net Present Value NPV sum of all cash flows moved
to the present
25
Formulation
• If an amount of money (P) were invested such
that it grew at precisely the rate of inflation (i) for
one time period, then
F = P + Pi = P(1 + i)
– That is, F is the equivalent future value of P
• For 2 time periods,
F = P(1+i) + P(1+i)i = P(1+i)(1+i)
• Generalizing, for n time periods
F = P(1+i)n
– This is referred to as the future worth of a present
amount
Cash Flow Diagrams

i = % F dollars
in future
1 2 3 N-1 N
F = P (1 + i )
N
P dollars F = P (i %, N )
deposited
Example : $1000 today if invested in CD with 3% annual compound
interest is worth ? in 5 years
F= 1000(1+.03)5 = $1159
Can also find Present value of a Future Payment

N
⎛ 1 ⎞
P = F⎜ ⎟
⎝1+ i⎠
P = F (i %, N)
26
Cash Flow Series
• Annuity - payments of A made at regular intervals
• Compute future value i = %
A A A A A A A
1 2 3 N-1 N
[
F = A 1 + (1 + i ) + (1 + i ) 2 + K + (1 + i ) N ]
⎡ (1 + i ) N − 1 ⎤ Example: A company leases a PBX for $1000 a
= A⎢ ⎥ quarter for 3 years. What is the value of the
⎣ i ⎦ contract at the end if inflation is 2% quarterly
F = A (F / A; i %, N ) F = 1000( (1+.02)12 -1)/0.02) = $13,412
Cash Flow of Series

• Computing present value P of annuity A
⎡ (1 + i ) N − 1 ⎤
F = A⎢ ⎥
⎣ i ⎦
and
F = P (1 + i )
N
⎡ (1 + i ) − 1⎤⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎡ (1 + i ) N − 1 ⎤
N N
∴ P = A⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟ = A⎢ ⎥
⎦⎝ 1 + i ⎠ ⎣ i (1 + i )
N
⎣ i ⎦
i = %
A A A A A A
1 2 3 N-1 N
F dollars
P dollars Example Present value of PBX lease
in future
deposited P = 1000 [( (1+.02)12 -1)/(0.02(1+.02)12)]
P = $10,575
27
Cost Example
• Move project cost either to net present value NPV or to Future
Present Value to compare alternatives
• Example buying PBX vs. leasing PBX for 10 year project (i = 5%)
Buy PBX Lease PBX

Purchase value = $27,000 Maintenance = $4000 yearly fee
$1000 year
Salvage value = $2000 NPV = 4000 [((1+.05)10 –1)/(.05(1+.05)10)]
NPV = $27000 + = $30,887

1000[((1+.05)10 -1)/(0.05(1+.05)10)]
- $2000 (1/(1+.05)10)
Outcome may be different if
NPV = $27000 + $7,722 - $1,228 include takes and if
= $33,494 depreciation applicable to
taxes!
Depreciation
• Definitions of Depreciation
– A System of Accounting which Aims to Distribute
Cost or Other Basic Value of Tangible Capital Assets,
Less Salvage Value, Over the Estimated Useful Life
of a Unit in a Systematic and Rational Manner for the
Purpose of Allocation (Paraphrased from ACPA)
– Loss in Service Value Not Restored by Maintenance
– Due to Normal Wear and Tear, Exposure and Decay,
Technological Obsolescence, etc.
• Depreciation Does Not Involve Actual Cash
Outlays
28
Computing Depreciation Expense
• Original Cost of Equipment
• Estimated Service Life of Equipment
– Data equipment 3-5 years lifetime
– Telecom equipment 5-20 years lifetime
• Estimated Net Salvage Value of the Equipment
– Remaining Value at the End of the Service Life
– Can Include the Cost of Removal
• Depreciation Method
– Retirement/Replacement
• Not widely used because carry cost until retirement
– Age-Life
Age-Life Methods
• Designed to Provide More Consistent Expense Accounts

from Year to Year
• Straight-Line Depreciation
– Depreciation Charge is Computed for Each Retirement Period
– Draw a Straight Line Between Original Cost and estimated
Salvage Value, and Allocate the Difference over Service Life
Original Cost - Salvage Value

Depreciation Charge =
Service Life
29
Deprecation Concepts
Cost ($)
Original
Cost
Accrued Depreciation
Annual Depreciation
Charge
Current Value
Service
Salvage Life
Value
5 10 15 Time (Years)
Age-Life Methods
• Accelerated depreciation allows higher
depreciation early in the equipment life than
straight line method
• Sum-of-the-Year’s-digits
# Years Remaining at Beginning of Year
Depreciation Expense = x (Original Cost - Salvage Value)
Total of the Digits of the Year’s Life
– Subtract from current value (undepreciated value)

– Repeat next year
• Double declining balance
– Double the depreciation rate of straight line
– Subtract from current value
– Depreciate remaining balance by straight line
30
Comparison of Depreciation Approaches
Cost ($)
Original Cost = $2M Straight-Line
$2M -$100K = $1.9M

$1.8M
Sum of the Year’s Digits
Double Declining Balance
Service
Life
Salvage
Value =
$500,000
5 10 15 Time
(Years)
Comments
• Size of depreciation charge depends on
– Service Life
– Salvage value
• Estimating both parameters in advance is
difficult
– Service life must take technological and usage factors
into account
– Actual salvage value depends on costs and prices at
the time of decommissioning
• Summarizing
– Using GAAP the value of an asset is
• Current Value = Purchase Value – Depreciation
• Can be factored in to network design cost
depends on organization
31
Network Design Cost
• Network Cost
•Project cost usually determined as Net Present Value
(NPV) of all cash flows in the project
• In WANs and metro access networks in addition to
equipment cost link BANDWIDTH is a significant cost
• Bandwidth is a reoccurring cost (treat like an annuity)
Item Example Cost

Terminal router $2000 purchase price
Transit router $3700 purchase price
WAN adapter $500 purchase price
T1 1.544Mbps link $1000 to hook up + $1400/month
Bandwidth Cost
•Tariffs
• Tariff is a published rate for
telecommunications services and
facilities (in U.S. carriers file tariffs
with FCC)
• Types of Links
• Usage-sensitive
(fixed cost + variable cost
charged per minute or per X
bytes )
• Usage insensitive (leased line)
(fixed cost + monthly fee)
32
Usage Sensitive Tariffs
• A simple usage-sensitive voice tariff:
• Fixed cost for the use of line.

• Can place outgoing calls for an additional fee that
depends on the time of day
• Unlimited incoming calls (the calling party pays).
• The tariff is specified in 1-minute increments.
• Typical Usage Sensitive Tariff factors

1. Access fees ( the cost of maintaining a physical network
connection).
2. Setup fees.
3. Teardown fees.
4. Usage fees, which depend on
- channel capacity
- usage (# phone calls, mean bit rate, peak bit rate, etc.)
- distance (local, long distance, international)
- time of day
- national and administrative borders
33
• Some data services are based on usage sensitive

pricing
– For example Frame Relay Service
– Get peak rate and committed information rate (CIR) ,
charged usage fee per mean kbps above CIR
– London – Manchester, UK,
– Cable and Wireless 256K link , CIR = 64Kbps
• Connection $16,393,
• Rental (yearly) $17,591,
• Bandwidth charge $ 974 x 1kbps/month
• Many wireless data services have similar pricing
Usage Insensitive Cost
•Leased Line Cost of Link Bandwidth depends

on variety of factors
• Tariffs
• Service Provider
• Capacity of link
• fractional T1, T1, multiple T1, OC1, OC3, etc..
• Length
• Technology (WATS, ISDN etc.)
• Location
• NYC-DC cheaper than Asheville, NC – Memphis, TN
• QoS/Availability/survivability requirements
34
Leased Line Rates
• U.S. leased line rates

• ISDN 56 Kbps; fractional T1, e.g. 128
Kbps, 256 Kbps, 512 Kbps, full T1.
and rest of synchronous digital
hierarchy (SDH) in Table
• Europe leased line rates

• multiples of 64 Kbps, including half
E1 = 1024 Kbps, multiple E1, E3 etc.
• Note with leased line – get

symmetrical bandwidth allocations
• If go with data service (ATM, Frame
Relay, MPLS) can get asymmetrical
bandwidth allocations as part of a
Service Level Agreement (SLA)
Usage Insensitive Tariffs
• Suppose we have a call center located 70 miles from a large

city, where we have several hundred customers.
• Options
– Leased line
– Out-of-district line gives a line that appears to be in the city
• Reduces the per-minute charge for outgoing calls from $0.095 per minute
to $0.03 per minute.
– Banded WATS (wide area telephone service) (4 hours/day) – allows up
to 4 hours of calls per day to locations that are no more than a certain
specified distance, for instance 250 miles.
– Nationwide WATS - national coverage with unlimited usage.
35
Leased Line Tariffs
• U.S. leased line rates

• Tariff rate very in U.S. with amount of competition – rough approximation
fixed cost + linear distance cost, in reality more complicated
• In Europe tariffs are largely regulated and consistent within a
country
– Usage-insensitive data tariff for British Telcom in U.K. in table below
• Software tools exist that incorporate detailed tariff data (e.g.,
Pricer at http://www.tarifica.com) for analysis
Linear Distance Based Tariffs

• As noted bandwidth costs are function of a variety of factors.
• In practice use simple linear distance based model to represent
cost of service
• Cost = Fixed cost + distance cost x distance
– For example, for a 128 Kbps link in the U.K. we can use the approximation of
$757.09 + $2.40/km
• If detailed tariff data available can develop linear model by using
regression analysis on the tariff table data
• Such an approach often results in a piecewise linear model
36
Distance Coordinate Systems
Need to determine distance between sites to estimate
cost – two coordinate system approaches
Vertical and Horizontal (V&H)
- a grid of lines defined by AT&T in 50’s for North
America
- allows for a simplified computation of distances
- Widely used in Telco industry
Latitude and Longitude (L&L)
- defined for all locations on the surface of the earth.
- The distance calculation is essentially an exercise in
spherical geometry.
C code and formula in book
V&H Coordinate System
Given two cities coordinates (v1, h1), (v2,h2) find distance d apart
d = ceil ( (( v 1 − v 2 ) 2 + 9 ) / 10 + (( h 1 − h 2 ) 2 + 9 ) / 10 )
Can approximate by City name V H coordinate
( )
coordinate
d = ceil (v1 − v 2) 2 / 10 + (h1 − h2) 2 / 10 New York 4997 1406

Los 9213 7878
Angeles
For example for simple network
Chicago 5986 3426
discussed earlier
Dallas 8436 4034
,
DC (5622, 1583) – Denver (7501,5899) Pittsburgh 5621 2185
=> d = ceil(sqrt(353064.1 + 1862785)) DC 5622 1583
d = 1489 miles Seattle 6336 8896
Miami 8351 0527
Denver – Dallas => d = 660 miles Atlanta 7260 2083
Boston 4422 1249
Dallas – DC => d = 1180 miles
Denver 7501 5899
37
Latitude and Longitude Coordinate
• Distance D in degrees between two points X and Y on a

sphere with latitude and longitude values (LatX, LongX),
(LatY, LongY) found from
• Cos(D) = Sin(LatX) Sin(LatY) +
Cos(LongX)Cos(LongY)Cos(|LongY-LongX|)
• Find D in degrees by D = cos-1(cos(D))
• Convert to kilometers multiply by 111.23 km/degree
• Example: Paris, France (48.87oN, 2.33oE),
Austin, Tx (30.27oN, 97.74oW)
• cos D = [sin(48.87) * sin(30.27)] + [cos(48.87) * cos(30.27) * cos(|-
97.74 - 2.33|)] = 0.281
• Distance = 111.23 x cos-1(0.281) = 8,195.44 km
Simple Network Design Example
• Example- company with

offices in Dallas and
Vienna, VA,
• Factory in Denver
• Appl A: Sales/inventory
control
• Appl B: CAM
• Appl C: CAD
• Appl D: video
conference
• Appl E: Intranet Voice
38
Applications Map
• From Applications Map – get
rough idea of traffic flows
between network nodes
• Get the beginnings of a traffic
demand matrix across the Wide
Area Network
• If use Applications Monitoring
Approach –gather data on each
application
• A: Mean rate = .1 Mbps, Peak = .15 Mbps
• C: Mean rate = .5 Mbps, Peak = .75 Mbps
• D: Mean rate = 2 Mbps, Peak = 2.5 Mbps
Traffic Demand Matrices

• From the application map and associated matrix and the application
monitoring data we have the mean traffic demand matrix and peak
traffic demand matrix as below
• Note, if the network monitoring approach is used get traffic demand
directly.
Mean data Dallas Denver Vienna Peak data Dallas Denver Vienna
rate demands rate demands
Dallas ----------- .1Mb 2.1 Mb Dallas ----------- .15Mb 2.65 Mb
Denver .3 Mb -------------- .8Mb Denver .45 Mb ------------- 1.2Mb

- --
Vienna 2.5 Mb 1.5 Mb ------------ Vienna 3.25 Mb 2.25 Mb ------------
39
Example Network Design
• Consider simple network design based on mean data rates
• Objective: average link utilization 50% or less at each link
• Link capacity is purchased in T1 or multiple T1 sizes.
• A logical layer network design solution is a
minimum spanning tree (discussed later)
1.6 Mb
• The demands for each direction per link are 3T1
given next to the directional arrow Denver
Vienna
• In order to size link 2.8Mb
– pick max demand in either direction 1.1Mb
– double max demand to meet 50% utilization
objective
– Modularize into T1 multiples 4T1
• For example Dallas –Vienna Link 2.2Mb
– Max = 2.8 Mb, double to 5.6 Mb => 4 T1 lines
each 1.54 Mbps Dallas
– Similarly Denver –Vienna link is 3 T1 lines
– Need 7 Total T1 lines
– Check shows peak demands can be
carried

• Note many alternate network designs possible
• A solution is a minimum spanning tree
• If we root tree and Denver
• Again to size link
– pick max demand in either direction 4 Mb
6T1
– double max demand to meet 50% Denver
Vienna
utilization objective
– Modularize into T1 multiples 2.9Mb
• For example Denver –Vienna Link
2.8Mb
– Max = 4 Mb, double to 8 Mb => 6 T1 2.2Mb
lines each 1.54 Mbps
– Similarly Denver – Dallas link is 4 T1 lines 4T1
– Need 10 total T1 lines Dallas
– Checking shows peak demands can be

carried
40
• If spanning tree is rooted at Dallas
• The demands for each direction
per link are given next to the
directional arrow
• Again to size link
– pick max demand in either direction
– double max demand to meet 50% Denver
Vienna
utilization objective
4 Mb
– Modularize into T1 multiples 1.1Mb
• For example Dallas –Vienna Link 1.6 Mb
6T1
– Max = 4Mb, double to 8 Mb => 6T1
lines each 1.54 Mbps 3T1
2.9 Mb
– Similarly Dallas - Denver link is 3 T1
Dallas
lines
– Need 9 T1 lines Total
– Note peak demands can be carried

• Consider simple network design again – three options
• Assume cost of T1 = $2406.00 +$0.49/mile per month
• Dallas –Vienna Link
– 4 T1 lines = 4 x(2406 +.49 x1180) =
$11,937 1.6 Mb
3T1
• Similarly Denver –Vienna link is 3 Denver
Vienna
T1 lines 2.8Mb
1.1Mb
– Cost = 3*(2406 +.49 x1489) = $9407
• Total Bandwidth Cost = $21,344
per month 4T1
2.2Mb
• Similarly Cost of Other Designs Dallas
• Denver Root Cost = $29,731
• Dallas Root Cost = $26,093
41

Evaluating Technical Goals Project Costing

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Technical Requirements & Constraints

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 2

Availability level Downtime per year

– Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 Failure Repair Failure Repair 4

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 5

System Availability - Example

Equipment MTBF (hrs) MTTR (hrs) • The availability of the

Equipment CC (km) MTTR (hrs)

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 8

Aline = Acable × AOA

MTTRcable MTTROA 2 MTTRline − system 2

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 10

Lower bound of Us: UA+UH

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 11

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 12

• Queueing theory : Mathematical analysis of waiting

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 13

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 14

• The input process – how customers arrive

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 15

Characteristics of the Input Process

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 16

Characteristics of the Input Process

3. Behavior of the arriving customers

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 18

1. Physical number and layout of servers

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 19

Characteristics of the Service Process

3. Characteristics of the Service process.

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 20

• Four Basic Queueing models are used in

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 21

Markovian Queues Analysis

∑ flow in = ∑ flow out

• Apply Little’s theorem to obtain mean

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 23

Mean Number in System L Mean Delay W

Variance of number in system σL Variance of Delay σW

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 24

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 25

• The state space will be truncated at state K.

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 26

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 27

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 28

Portion of traffic dropped/rejected = λ⋅ Pb

Effective throughput of the system

λe= λ (1-Pb) ⇐ effective arrival rate

Other performance measures

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 31

• Consider the queue at an output port of router. The transmission link

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 32

• C identical servers processes customers in

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 33

Flow Balance Equations

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 34

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 36

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 37

C(c,a) ⇐ Erlang’s C formula

In the telephone system,

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 38

TELCOM 2110 Spring 06 39