Journal of Hydrology, 82 (1985) 77--91 77

Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam -- Printed in The Netherlands

[1]

REGIONALIZATION OF FLOW DURATION CHARACTERISTICS

MARIA MLMIKOU and STELLA KAEMAKI

Division of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering, Civil Engineering
Department, Technical University of Athens, Athens (Greece)
(Received March 16, 1985; revised and accepted June 18, 1985)

ABSTRACT

Mimikou, M. and Kaemaki, S., 1985. Regionalization of flow duration characteristics. J.

Hydrol., 82: 77--91.

The flow duration curve is regionalized by using morphoclimatic characteristics of

the drainage basin. The monthly flow duration characteristics at eleven major flow
measuring sites across the western and northwestern regions of Greece were first para-
meterized. Using multiple regression techniques, the geographic variation of each para-
meter of the best fitted flow duration model is explained in terms of the mean annual
areal precipitation, the drainage area, the hypsometric fall and the length of the main
river course from the divide of the basin to the site of interest. The regionalized regression
equations are successfully used to synthesize flow duration curves at other locations
within the hydrologically homogeneous regions of western and northwestern Greece.
The method is useful in obtaining estimates of water availability for hydropower at
ungaged sites (especially for small hydropower plants, for run-of-river plants), or for other
water resources development (water supply, water quality projects), within the regions
studied, where the main governmental interest for water resources development is focused.

INTRODUCTION

One of the main concerns of the governmental policy in developing

countries is to ensure energy supplies at the lowest possible cost and the
highest possible reliability. The international oil crisis of the last decade has
seriously affected both cost and reliability of the imported fossil fuel in
Greece, making thus the exploitation of domestic energy sources and especi-
ally of h y d r o p o w e r sources very challenging. The country has embarked on
a wide national program of h y d r o p o w e r development and generally of water
resources development. The main governmental interest for water resources
development is focused to the western and northwestern regions of Greece
where abundant water resources are available and the major rivers of Greece
are concentrated. A c o m p o n e n t of this development is devoted to small
hydropower. Water supply and water quality control systems are also

0022-1694/85/$03.30 © 1985 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

78

programmed to be built. Usually, the small projects and several large hydro-
projects as well, are located at ungaged sites and either their scale does not
justify or the inaccessibility of their location does not permit a pre-project
data acquisition at the site. Thus, the hydrologic design of these projects
must be based on information spatially transferred from other gaged sites.
The majority of the potential water resources development sites of the area
studied are remote from existing hydrometeorologic stations so that the
transfer of hydrologic information, especially of runoff characteristics, by
using regression analysis (rainfall--runoff analysis, etc.) has been proved
untenable in most of the cases. The only m e t h o d which seems to be appro-
priate in such cases is to attempt the spatial transfer of information through
regionalization (Mimikou, 1982, 1984).
It is well known that the hydropower potential at a certain site depends
on the water availability and on the hydraulic head. Thus, a hydrologic
concern in the design is to estimate the flow availability at the site, which
is readily expressed by the flow duration curve. Although the latter does not
give the sequence of flows, that is provided by the complete hydrograph, it
yields a quick indication of the need for a storage reservoir at a certain river
site where a given flow is to be maintained and gives information needed for
the estimation of the hydropower potential at the site. It is thus a usefull
tool in preliminary hydroelectric energy studies. The curve gives hydrologic
information needed, as well in water supply studies and in water quality
studies.
Basic scope of the paper is to develop a simple technique for estimating
water availability at ungaged sites or generally at sites where data is scarce.
The regionalization of m o n t h l y flow duration characteristics in western and
northwestern Greece is presented. The technique is successfully applied in
estimating synthetic flow duration curves at ungaged sites of the area studied,
by using as input information morphoclimatic characteristics of the drainage
basins. Conclusions are drawn for the accuracy and the usefulness of the
technique, and a comparative reference to other related studies on the same
subject (Singh, 1971; Quimpo et al., 1983) is undertaken.

DATA USED

Eleven representative hydrometric stations of the five major rivers (the

Aliakmon, Acheloos, Arachtos, Aoos and Kalamas) in western and north-
western Greece have been used. The m o n t h l y flow records for all stations,
with which the flow duration curves have been calibrated, belong to the
Public Power Corporation. Characteristics of the stations (name, location
and the lengths in years of the records studied) are given in Table 1. All
stations are equipped with permanent installations for measuring flows with
current meters and with staff gage recorders and have accurate and reliable
data. The general location of the rivers and of the measuring stations is
 79

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f
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...-.:i

~ ~ ~='::::::':"":
/ ?o i!~i~iiii!~

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Fig. f. General location of the measuring stations.

80

TABLE 1
Characteristics of the measuring stations

River Station Latitude Longitude N u m b e r of

yrs of
record

Aliakmon Ilarion 40 ° 06' 15" 21 ° 48' 15" 20

Siatista 40 ° 13' 30" 21 ° 29' 45" 20
Grevena 40 ° 03' 00" 21 ° 29' 45" 20
Acheloos Avlaki 39 ° 10' 40" 21 ° 22' 45" 27
Aracthos Plaka 39 ° 28 ' 00" 21 ° 01' 45" 28
Tsimovo 39 ° 34' 50" 20 ° 59' 15" 28
Gogos 39 ° 32 ' 15" 21 ° 04' 45" 28
Aoos Konitsa 40 ° 01' 50" 20 ° 45' 45" 17
Vovoussa 42° 55' 40" 21 ° 04' 45" 15
Kalamas Vrossina 39 ° 38' 20" 20 ° 30' 45" 8
Soulopoulo 39 ° 43' 20 '~ 20 ° 36' 25" 9

Aoos Piges 39 ° 49' 30" 21 ° 03' 45" 7

Kalamas Kioteki 39 ° 34' 00" 20 ° 20' 15" 15

TABLE 2
M o r p h o c l i m a t i c characteristics

River Station Annual Drainage Hypsometric Length

precipita- area A fall H L
tion P (km 2 ) (m) (km)
(ram)

Aliakmon Ilarion 815 5OO5 700 133

Siatista 811 2724 500 81
Grevena 1057 817 400 42
Acheloos Avlaki 1987 1349 1000 65
Aracthos Plaka 1581 970 600 50
Tsimovo 1413 640 600 40
Gogos 1780 204 1000 18
Aoos Konitsa 122U 665 800 71
Vovoussa 1449 202 400 30
Kalamas Vrossina 1484 1035.5 300 38
Soulopoulo 1421 661.4 200 22

Aoos Piges 1450 86.3 80 15

Kalamas Kioteki 1550 1481.4 350 60
 81

shown in Fig. 1. In addition to the m o n t h l y flow data of the measuring

stations, which have been used in the calibration of the flow duration curve,
several morphoclimatic characteristics of the drainage basins at the sites
have been used as well in the regionalization of the parameters of the curve.
These characteristics are the following: the mean annual areal precipitation
P (mm), the drainage area A (km ~-), the hypsometric fall H (m) and the
length L (km) of the main river course from the divide of the basin to the
measuring station. The precipitation and area data are taken from the
hydrological records of the Greek Public Power Corporation, whereas the
hypsometric fall and the length of the rivers have been calculated from maps.
The morphoclimatic characteristics of the 11 drainage basins are given in
Table 2. In the last two rows of Tables 1 and 2 the corresponding character-
istics of two additional drainage basins on the Kalamas and the Aoos rivers,
are given. They have been used in verifying the applicability and accuracy
of the regional technique presented for estimating synthetic flow duration
curves.

CALIBRATION OF THE FLOW DURATION CURVES

The flow duration curve is a plot of discharge Q versus the percent of time
D during the period of the record in which the particular discharge is equaled
or exceeded. It is a well known and widely used graph and details of the
procedure for the development of the curve can be found in introductory
hydrology books (Linsley and Franzini, 1972). Because of the numerical
procedure followed, the time interval used in the derivation affects the shape
of the curve. In this study m o n t h l y flow values have been used for the deri-
vation of the duration curves. This is due to the needs of the design of the
hydropower and other hydraulic installations of the area.
Following the definition of the flow duration curve, it is apparent that the
analytical expression of the curve depends on the serial correlation structure
of the flow time series. For series with statistically insignificant serial correla-
tion, the flow duration characteristics could be modelled with a probability
distribution model (gaussian, log-normal, etc.), as it is c o m m o n practice
when dealing with statistical data (Yevjevich, 1972). Nevertheless, in most of
the cases the flow series are autocorrelated (Kashyap and Rao, 1976) and
this is why the flow duration curve procedure differs from a probability
distribution approach. The serial dependence of the m o n t h l y flow series at
the 11 sites used in this study has been checked by using the autocorrelation
analysis and the Portmanteau check for testing the significance of the first-
order autocorrelation coefficient (Box and Jenkins, 1970). It was found that
all series exhibit a statistically significant first-order autocorrelation structure
at the 95% confidence level.
Various mathematical models for the flow duration curve have been used
in the literature. Singh (1971} conducted a research on flow duration curves
82

in the midwestern United States and developed a model according to which

the dimensionless discharge (discharge Q divided by the average discharge of
the record) corresponding to a certain precent of time D is a simple power
function of the drainage area, whereas the constant and the exponent of the
relationship are regionally varying functions of D. This type of approach
could not be applied to the data of this study, since the power regressions
developed between dimensionless discharge and drainage area for several
values of D were found to be very poor. Quimpo et al. (1983), have para-
meterized daily flow duration curves in the Philippines by using an expo-
nential and a power form model as follows:
Q -- a exp (-- bD) (1)
Q = a D -b (2)
where Q is the discharge (per unit area of the basin), D is the corresponding
time of exceedance and a and b are positive constants. They found that the
exponential model of eqn (1) fitted the daily data better compared to the
power model of eqn. (2). In the present study, besides the exponential and
power models given in eqns. (1) and (2) another three flow duration models
have been used. These models are the following:
Q -- a - - b l n D (3)
Q = a - bD + cD 2 (4)
Q = a--bD+cD:--dD3 (5)
In all eqns. (1)--(5) and in order to avoid spurious regressions, discharge Q is
treated in its original units without reducing it per unit area of the basin. The
parameters a, b, c and d are positive constants. It has to be mentioned that
the flow duration models are presented in eqns. (1)--(5) in their final form
as far as the sign of their coefficients is concerned. The models initially
tested had positive signs in the coefficients a, b, c and d in all eqns. (1)--(5).
Then, the fitted on the real data models came up with negative values for
the coefficients b and d for all models and stations studied. In other words,
it appears that the general features of the studied duration curves suggest
that the sign of the coefficients of the odd powers of D (or of its logarithm)
in the fitted models must be negative. The m o n t h l y flow data at all 11
stations in Table 1 have been treated according to the standard procedure
for a flow duration curve development suggested by the U.S. Geological
Survey (1959). A set of paired values of discharge Q, in m 3 s - ' , and the
corresponding percent of time D, that Q has been exceeded during the
analyzed record, has been estimated for each station. The 4%, 8%, 12% . . . .
(interval increasing 4% each time up to 100%) values have been then ex-
tracted by interpolation to yield 25 pairs of (Q, D) values for each station.
The models were fitted to each set of 25 pairs by using the least-squares
method. The model with the lesser sum of squares of residuals was selected
 83

ILARION SIATISTA
20[ - Calculated curve
- Calculated curve
200I • Real value • Real va~ue

2
v

150 15(
TION CALIBRATION

~00 100

50 .

o o
0 O0 0 25 0 50 075 1 O0 o.0o 025 050 075 100
D - P e r c e n t of tqme O is equaled or exceeded D - P e r c e n t of trine Q ~ equaled or exceeded

A~LAN I
QREVENA - C a l c u l a t e d CUrve
200
- Calculated curve • Real v a l u e
• Real ~alue ~.~ 2 0 0 I

150
150
CALIBRATION
CALIBRATION
cl cl

100 100

50 50

".°
o1~
000 025 050 075
D - P e r c e n t of tqme O is equa~ed
....
100
or exceeded
0
O0 025 050 075
D - Percent of brae O 15 equaled
100
or exceeded

Fig. 2. Flow duration curves at the Ilarion, Siatista, Grevena and Avlaki measuring
stations.

to be the best m o d e l to p a r a m e t e r i z e t h e f l o w d u r a t i o n characteristics at

each station. It w a s f o u n d that the cubic m o d e l in eqn. (5) is t h e best for all
stations. T h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e p r e v i o u s l y m e n t i o n e d best e x p o n e n t i a l
84

PLA•A TSInOUO
2O0 - Calculated curve -Calculated curve
o • Real value 2001 • Real value

g ~
150 150
CALI BRAT I,qN u CALIBRATION
0 l

100 ; ,ool
50

000 025 050 075 100 o.00 025 050 075 100
D~ Percent of t,me O ,s equaled or exceeded D-Percent of time O ,S equaled or exceeded

KONITSA
GOGOS 20C,~I - Calculated curve
2 oo Calculated curve
o - • Real value
• Real value

~Z
v g
L
~ 150
15C
CALIBRATION
CALIBRATION
~3

100
100

50

o
o
0o0 025 050 075 100
ooo 025 050 075 100
D- Percent of t,me 0 is equaled or exceeded
D- Percent of t~me Q ps equaled or exceeded

Fig. 3. Flow duration curves at the Plaka, Tsimovo, Gogos and Konitsa measuring
stations.

daily flow duration model (Quimpo et al., 1983) and the monthly one esti-
mated herein cannot be safely justified because of the differences due to the
incorporation into the former of the drainage area as an additional implicit
 85

VOVOUSSA VROSSINA
A 200 20O - Calculated curve
- Calculated curve
• Real value • Real value

~ 15C 15(
CALIBRATION CALIBRATION
cl

10C 100

5O 50

0.00 0.25 0 50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 050 075 100

D - P e r c e n t of t i m e O 15 equaled o r e x c e e d e d D-Percent of t ~ m e Q 15 equaled o r e x c e e d e d

50ULOPOLILO
200
-Calculated curve
• Real value

'~ 15C
CALIBRATION

100

5o!
0.00 0.25 0 50 0.75 IO 0
D - P e r c e n t of t~me Q m5 equaled or exceeded

Fig. 4. Flow duration curves at the Vovoussa, Vrossina and Soulopoulo measuring
stations.

t e r m , t o the d i f f e r e n t t i m e scales o f t h e analyses and t o t h e different cli-

m a t i c regimes. T h e calibrated f l o w d u r a t i o n curves for all s t a t i o n s are s h o w n
in Figs. 2--4.
86

THE REGIONAL MODEL

As has been previously mentioned, the development of a regionalization

technique for transferring hydrologic information -- in this case the flow
duration characteristics -- from one flow-measuring site to another remote
ungaged site of the area studied, has been found to be necessary, since other
methods, like rainfall--runoff analysis, have been proved unreliable. This is
due to the fact that the rainfall--runoff response at a certain site is an ex-
tremely space--time dependent process, and its transfer reliability to other
remote sites is seriously affected by the distances between the sites. The
hydrologic regionalization is done either by plotting contours of equal
values of some numerical measure of the hydrologic characteristic whose
transfer from site to site is of interest (Quimpo et al., 1983), or by explain-
ing analytically the spatial variation of some parameters of the hydrologic
characteristic, which is previously parameterized at various measuring sites.
Because of the anomalous mountainous morphology and the relative sparse-
ness of the available key stations of the western and northwestern regions
of Greece, the latter regionalization approach has been followed.
The spatial variation of the four parameters a, b, c and d of the cubic
model in eqn. (5) from station to station has been attempted to be explained
through the regression analysis and by using as input-independent variables
one climatic (P) and three morphological characteristics of the drainage
basins (A, H, L) which have been already defined and are given in Table 2.
Four regression equations have been tested in order to model the variability
of each of the four parameters. These are the following:
V = b 0 + b l P + b2A + b3L + b4H (6)
V ~ bo Pb' (A/L)b2H b3 (7)
V = bo P b ' A b2(H/L)% (8)

V = boPb'Ab:Hb~Lb4 (9)
where V is the dependent variable representing the parameters a, b, c, d and
b0, bl, b2, b3, b 4 are constants. The multiple regression analysis was per-
formed aceording to standard statistical texts (Haan, 1977; Middlebrooks,
1979). The model in eqn. (9) has been proved to be the one with the lesser
sum of squares of residuals for all parameters. Therefore, it has been selected
to be the best regional model to explain the spatial variation of the para-
meters of the flow durations curve. The regional models for all parameters,
fitted on the parameter values as given in Table 3, and their correlation
coefficients r are the following:
a = 0.011pO'S26A°-6OSHO'OOTLOaS3 r = 0, 87 (10)
b = 0.053 P°'S11A°'684H-°'lSlL °'27s r = 0, 87 (11)
c = 0.010 P°'7°SA°'952H-°'31SL°'°73 r = 0, 84 (12)
 87

TABLE 3
Parameters and correlation coefficients of the regression equations

Stations Parameters and r-values

a b c d r

Ilarion 169.286 421.259 362.827 106.842 0.999

Siatista 81.398 214.954 201.046 65.472 0.999
Grevena 59.182 136.447 97.779 19.554 0.999
Avlaki 143.452 1"t 1.288 200.344 86.604 0.996
Plaka 110.061 282.~45 310.443 134.794 0.994
Tsimovo 70.572 209.574 243.804 105.883 0.994
Gogos 26.370 47.957 33.007 10.472 0.999
Konitsa 72.432 161.581 126.904 35.255 0.993
Vovoussa 29.087 62.830 39.148 4.788 0.998
Vrossina 107.631 313.080 346.657 133.380 0.999
Soulopoulo 63.675 171.288 200.344 86.604 0.999

d = 4.215 × lO-6pl'lSTAI'637H-°'°53L -0"687 r -- 0, 83 (13)

In order to test the significance of the contribution of each independent

variable in explaining the variation in the dependent variable in eqns. (10)--
(13), a F-test was used (Middlebrooks, 1979) for checking the equivalent
hypothesis that the regression coefficient of each independent variable is
significantly different from zero. The test statistic F is given by the ratio of
the sum of squares explained by the regression -- more specifically the
incremental sum of squares due to each tested independent variable -- to
the residual sum of squares, multiplied by (n - - p ) ; n is the number of obser-
vations (equal here to 11) and p is the number of independent variables,
increased by one in order to account for the constant of the regression
equation. The results are given in Table 4. In this table one can see the con-
fidence levels at which the above mentioned statistical hypothesis is accepted
for each specific independent variable, shown in the first column of the
table, in explaining the variation of each of the parameters shown in the
upper row of the table. The contributions provided by the drainage area in
the first place and secondly by the annual precipitation appear to be the
most significant for all parameters. This is expected, since both variables play
significant role in the r u n o f f process and its time distribution. A possible
explanation for the relatively low contribution provided by the climatic
factor is the difference in the time scales between the annual precipitation
and the modelled m o n t h l y r u n o f f process. It is n o t e w o r t h y to mention that
the comparative significance of the contributions provided by the length and
hypsometric fall of the river differs from parameter to parameter. The
variation in the parameters a and d is better explained by the river length,
whereas the hypsometric fall explains better the variation in the parameters
b and c. This reversal in the roles of the two variables may be due to the
88

TABLE 4
F-test -- confidence levels

Independent variables Conf. levels (%) for the parameters

a b c d

A 92.6 92.0 93.7 96.4

P 65.5 57.7 59.6 66.1
H 1.8 36.7 46.7 6.0
L 36.1 34.3 7.1 44.0

TABLE 5
Coefficients of determination r 2

Independent variables r 2 -values for the parameters

in the regression
a d b c

H 0.009 0.012
L, H 0.524 0.254
P, L, H 0.567 0.311
A, P, L, H 0.757 0.687

L 0.506 0.337
H, L 0.531 0.439
P, H, L 0.563 0.478
A, P, H, L 0.748 0.712

differences b e t w e e n the p a r a m e t e r s themselves; the p a r a m e t e r s b and c

r e p r e s e n t t h e influence o f t h e main t i m e c o m p o n e n t s in eqn. (5), and t h e y
should be m o r e sensitive in m o r p h o l o g i c a l characteristics, like t h e hypso-
m e t r i c fall, which primarily a f f e c t the t i m e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f flow. T h e increase
o f the p r e d i c t i o n a c c u r a c y w i t h the progressive a d d i t i o n o f i n d e p e n d e n t
variables, which are a d d e d a r r a y e d in increasing o r d e r o f significance f o r each
specific p a r a m e t e r , as it is expressed b y the c o r r e s p o n d i n g increase o f the
c o e f f i c i e n t o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n r 2 o f the regression, is shown in Table 5. Even
t h o u g h the c o n t r i b u t i o n p r o v i d e d in some cases b y some o f the variables is
considerably insignificant as s h o w n in Tables 4 and 5, for e x a m p l e the
h y p s o m e t r i c fall c o u l d be d e l e t e d f r o m eqns. (10) and (13) w i t h o u t signifi-
cant sacrifice o f a c c u r a c y , t h e regional e q u a t i o n s have been d e v e l o p e d b y
using all the variables, as given in eqns. ( 1 0 ) - - ( 1 3 ) , in o r d e r to keep u n i f o r m -
ity and c o m p l e t e n e s s in the expression.
It is a p p a r e n t t h a t the overall p r e d i c t i o n e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e regional m e t h o d
is strongly a f f e c t e d b y the a c c u r a c y o f p r e d i c t i o n o f the p a r a m e t e r s of the
flow d u r a t i o n m o d e l . Thus, the goodness o f fit o f the latter, previously
t e s t e d during the calibration, is n o t alone reliably indicative o f the a c c u r a c y
 89

of prediction. In order to test further the selection of the cubic model of

eqn. (5) as the best among the other competing ones in eqns. (1)--(4), the
predictability of the parameters of the rest models have been checked as well
by repeating the regionalization procedure previously described. In all cases,
the r 2 -values of the developed regional regression equations for each para-
meter were less than the corresponding r 2 -values for the cubic model para-
meters as given in Table 5.

APPLICATION -- VERIFICATION

The regional models in eqns. (10)--(13) can be used to estimate the flow
duration characteristics a, b, c and d and therefore, to construct a synthetic
flow duration curve of the cubic form of eqn. (5) for any other remote
ungaged site for hydropower or any other water resources development site
within the hydrologically homogeneous region of western and northwestern
Greece. The flow duration curve doesn't give information on the sequence of
flows, a fact that limits its usefulness in the design. Nevertheless, it readily
expresses the water availability and gives information needed for the esti-
mation of the h y d r o p o w e r potential (the latter being proportional to the
product of the discharge and the hydraulic head) at a certain site. It is thus
useful in preliminary hydro-electric energy studies, especially for small hydro-
power plants, where due to the small scale of the design, the requirements of
the study can be m e t by the type of flow information provided by the duration
curve, until sufficient data become available to warrant more sophisticated
techniques of analysis. It is also useful in assessing energy production at run-
of-river plants. It has also application in water supply and water quality
studies, where the duration of flows is basic hydrologic information for
the design. For example, the duration of low flows is strongly affecting the
solution of various pollution problems.
In order to verify the developed regional technique and to estimate the
accuracy for constructing synthetic flow duration curves at other locations
of the area, two other sites, which have not been used in the calibration
procedure, the Piges and the Kioteki stations on the Aoos and the Kalamas
rivers respectively, have been used. The characteristics of the stations and the
morphoclimatic characteristics of their drainage basins are given in Tables
1 and 2. The latter characteristics have been used in eqns. (10)--(13) and the
parameters a, b, c and d of the synthetic flow duration curves at both sites
have been estimated. Then eqn. (5) has been used to construct the curves
as shown in Fig. 5. Each of the two synthetic curves (dotted line) is given
along with the corresponding real curve (solid line) which is eye-fitted and
connects the points obtained from 25 pairs of discharge Q versus the time
of exceedance D. The (Q, D) pairs have been estimated from the available
monthly records at both sites by following the procedure previously descri-
bed. The fitting of the synthetic curves to the real ones appears to be very
good, especially at the Piges site.
90

PIGES AOOU K IOTE~,I

20O 20C --o- Calculated
--0-Calculated
+Real Real
m

IE E

g g
t_ L
~ 15£ 15C
UERIF]CATION UERIF ICATIOrb
c3 cl

q,,

10C 10C

50 50

0 O0 0 25 0 50 0 75 1 O0 0.00 025 050 075 100

D - P e r c e n t of t , r n e Q E$ e q u a l e d o r exceeded D - P e r c e n t of t , m e O ~$ e q u a l e d o r exceeded

Fig. 5. Synthetic flow duration curves at the Piges and Kioteki measuring stations.

A measure of accuracy has been defined to be the mean square error e as

follows:

i=1 Qi (%) (14)

where Qi is the real discharge, ~)i is the estimated one at the time D = i
of the abscissa and i ranges from 1 to N. The discharge values finally used
in eqn. (14) are the ones corresponding to the N = 25 pairs previously
selected and plotted in Fig. 5. The estimated accuracy is satisfactory and
equal to: e = 3% for the Piges station and e = 10% for the Kioteki station.

CONCLUSIONS

The conclusions drawn from this research are the following:

(1) The best m o n t h l y flow duration model, selected among other com-
peting ones for all stations studied, is a cubic model, i.e. the discharge Q is
expressed in terms of a third-order polynomial of the percent of time D
during the period analyzed in which the particular discharge is equaled or
exceeded; the odd powers of D in the polynomial have negative coefficients.
(2) The mean annual areal precipitation, the drainage area, the hypso-
metric fall and the length o f the main river course from the divide of a
drainage basin to a certain site explain significantly the geographic variation
of the flow duration characteristics at the site.
 91

(3) The developed regional technique can be easily and successfully used
in estimating synthetic flow duration curves at ungaged sites within the
hydrologically homogeneous region of the study in western and north-
western Greece. It is usefull in estimating water availability for hydropower
at ungaged sites (especially for small hydropower plants, for run-of-river
plants), or for other water resources development (water supply, water
quality projects).

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors wish to thank the Public Power Corporation of Greece for
providing the data used in the study.

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