How Charts Lie

HOW TO FACT-CHECK
How Charts
CHARTS Lie
AND VISUALS
Getting Smarter about

Alberto Cairo
Visual Information
Urban Alberto Cairo

Institute, Washington DC, 2019
twitter.com/albertocairo
Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo
Charts everywhere!

Less Knowledge of science, statistics, data visualization, etc. More
Each dot represents an imaginary person
Can we bridge
the widening
epistemic gap?
Most people If you’re attending this talk

are back here you’re probably here

Less Knowledge of science, statistics, data visualization, etc. More
Each dot represents an imaginary person
Can we bridge
the widening
epistemic gap?
Most people If you’re attending this talk

are back here you’re probably here

Perhaps we need to talk a bit less about how to MAKE charts (graphs, maps, infographics)
or INNOVATION (new technologies or ways to represent data,) and more about
how to REASON about those charts*
*and how to help other the general public reason about them, as well

We could begin by learning and teaching how not
to take any of these common sayings at face value
1. “A picture is worth a thousand words”

2. “Visualization is intuitive”
3. “The data should speak for itself ”
4. “Show, don’t tell!”

Visuals are often ambiguous

Visuals are often ambiguous

Never assume that a
chart is intuitive, or that
you can understand it at
a quick glance

What you design…

What you design… …is not what (some) people see

1 2 3 4 5
Sunday, September 1, 2019


WTF is he
talking about?

Yep, he
extended the cone
—with a Sharpie!
If Anything on this
Graphic Causes Confusion,
Ignore the Entire Product
My next book after

How Charts Lie?
An essay on the virtues

and failures of visualization
Alberto Cairo

What causes the confusion?
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CHART COMPREHENSION, SIMPLIFIED
Designers’ Readers’
mental mental
models models
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+
DATA
+
SYMBOLS
SYMBOLS
+
+
ENCODINGS
ENCODINGS
++
ANNOTATIONS
ANNOTATIONS
==
VISUALIZATION
VISUALIZATION
Mediators’
mental
models
Based on Donald A. Norman’s

‘Some observations on mental models’
In Mental Models, Dedre Gentner,
Albert L. Stevens eds. (1983)

mental 9*"()* mental
models 0",&%/ models
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ENCODINGS
ENCODINGS
++
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ANNOTATIONS
+',+"-&.%/$1%&$', ==
'23&4"3.*"()* VISUALIZATION
VISUALIZATION
0",&%/30'#"/
Mediators’
mental
models
Based on Donald A. Norman’s

‘Some observations on mental models’
In Mental Models, Dedre Gentner,
Albert L. Stevens eds. (1983)

mental 9*"()* mental
models 0",&%/ models
5"*$6,"()*
+',+"-&.%/ 0'#"/
7%(6"&3*8*&"0
DATA
0'#"/
+
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+
SYMBOLS
SYMBOLS
+
+
ENCODINGS
ENCODINGS
++
ANNOTATIONS
+',+"-&.%/$1%&$', ==
'23&4"3.*"()* VISUALIZATION
VISUALIZATION
0",&%/30'#"/
Mediators’
mental
!"#$%&'()*
models
+',+"-&.%/
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Based on Donald A. Norman’s !"#$%&'()*

‘Some observations on mental models’ +',+"-&.%/$1%&$',
In Mental Models, Dedre Gentner, '23&4"3.*"()*
Albert L. Stevens eds. (1983) 0",&%/30'#"/

WHAT TO DO?
Depending on the situation, each of us is sometimes
a designer, sometimes a mediator, and sometimes a reader.
We often play more than one of these roles at once.
As designers, how can we help readers develop

the right mental models?
As mediators, how can we explain charts to reader

—and avoid spreading bad charts in our networks?
As readers, how can we develop better mental models

of the charts we encounter?

Recommendation 1
HELPING INCREASE GRAPHICACY

We believe (wrongly) that charts are illustrations, and that they can be understood at a quick glance.
But charts are visual arguments. They can’t just be seen; they need to be read.

Skills for a well-
rounded education:
—Literacy
—Articulacy
—Numeracy
—Graphicacy
—Awareness and attention

Skills for a well-
rounded education:
—Literacy
—Articulacy
—Numeracy
—Graphicacy
—Awareness and attention

Show AND tell—and explain
Hans Rosling, www.gapminder.org

Show AND tell—and explain
Hans Rosling, The Joy of Stats

Recommendation 2
EMBRACING COMPLEXITY
We dislike ambiguity and complexity, and prefer simplistic stories over nuanced arguments.
Arguments often can’t be clear, linear, or have a definite ending.

The danger of aggregating data too much,
and presenting just averages and other statistical summaries
Most places are pretty safe, and

have likely remained down here
(these aren’t real data points)

The danger of aggregating data too much,
and presenting just averages and other statistical summaries
Some places are so

far up that they skew
the national rate
Most places are pretty safe, and

have likely remained down here
(these aren’t real data points)
Careful with amalgamation

paradoxes and outliers
http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00513/full

Let’s learn—and teach others—how to reason about and with numbers

Recommendation 3
BECOMING AWARE OF OUR OWN BIASES

AND CULTIVATING A CULTURE OF ATTENTION
We constantly see patterns. Once we identify patterns that look meaningful —even if they are
just the product of randomness— our brains begin imagining links between them,
and shaping them as stories. Then, we strive to confirm those stories, never to challenge them.

85
80
75
70
Smoking
cigarettes
Life expectancy
(in years)
65
can help you
60
Each red dot is a country

live longer!!!
55
Example provided by
50 Heather Krause
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 https://idatassist.com
Annual cigarette consumption
per person above age 14

85
Remember:
80
A chart shows only what
it shows and nothing else
75
70
Smoking
cigarettes
Life expectancy
(in years)
65
can help you
60
High income countries

live longer??
Middle income countries
55
Low income countries
Example provided by
50 Heather Krause
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 https://idatassist.com

HIGH INCOME MIDDLE INCOME LOW INCOME
COUNTRIES COUNTRIES COUNTRIES
85 85
Life expectancy 80 80
Life expectancy
70 70
60 60
50 50
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Be careful with amalgamation paradoxes and with the ecological fallacy


100%
People who never
smoke or who stopped
75% smoking years ago
Survival rate
50%
Cigarette
smokers
25%
0%
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age

Let’s learn—and teach others—how to curb biases by becoming more mindful

Recommendation 4
LEARNING TO BE ETHICAL
We aren’t just designers or readers anymore. We are all mediators.
We have great power. And with great power comes…

9*"()*
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+
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+
ENCODINGS
+
+',+"-&.%/$1%&$', =
VISUALIZATION
'23&4"3.*"()*
0",&%/30'#"/
!"#$%&'()*
+',+"-&.%/
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!"#$%&'()*
+',+"-&.%/$1%&$',
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Bill Kovach and Tom Rosenstiel, The Elements of Journalism
“The essence of journalism is a discipline of verification”

“The essence of journalism is a discipline of verification”
citizenship and attention”

We need better conversations.
Conversations are essential if we wish to improve the networks and societies we inhabit.
Therefore we all have a moral responsibility to pay attention and to increase the
How Charts Lie
quality of those conversations, not to reduce it.
THANK YOU! Getting Smarter about

Visual Information
Alberto Cairo
W.W. Norton: https://books.wwnorton.com/books/
detail.aspx?ID=4294998829
IndieBound: https://www.indiebound.org/book/
9781324001560
Barnes&Noble: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-
charts-lie-alberto-cairo/1130420282?ean=9781324001560
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/How-Charts-Lie-Getting-
Information/dp/1324001569/ref=sr_1_1?
keywords=how+charts+lie&qid=1551105523&s=gateway&
sr=8-1

How Charts Lie

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HOW TO FACT-CHECK

Getting Smarter about

Urban Alberto Cairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Each dot represents an imaginary person

Most people If you’re attending this talk

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Each dot represents an imaginary person

Most people If you’re attending this talk

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

1. “A picture is worth a thousand words”

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

My next book after

An essay on the virtues

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Based on Donald A. Norman’s

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Based on Donald A. Norman’s

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Based on Donald A. Norman’s !"#$%&'()*

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

We often play more than one of these roles at once.

As designers, how can we help readers develop

As mediators, how can we explain charts to reader

As readers, how can we develop better mental models

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

HELPING INCREASE GRAPHICACY

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

—Awareness and attention

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

—Awareness and attention

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Hans Rosling, www.gapminder.org

Hans Rosling, The Joy of Stats

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Most places are pretty safe, and

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Some places are so

Most places are pretty safe, and

Careful with amalgamation

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

BECOMING AWARE OF OUR OWN BIASES

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Each red dot is a country

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

High income countries

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Annual cigarette consumption

Be careful with amalgamation paradoxes and with the ecological fallacy

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo

Be careful with amalgamation paradoxes and with the ecological fallacy

Alberto Cairo • University of Miami • www.thefunctionalart.com • Twitter: @albertocairo