𝒏 = 𝟒𝟎

In statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is a type of interval estimate , computed from

the statistics of the observed data, that might contain the true value of an
unknown population parameter. The interval has an associated confidence level,
or coverage that, loosely speaking, quantifie the level of confidence that the
deterministic parameter is captured by the interval. More strictly speaking,
the confidence level represents the frequency (i.e. the proportion) of possible confidence
intervals that contain the true value of the unknown population parameter.

In other words, if confidence intervals are constructed using a given confidence

level from an infinite number of independent sample statistics, the proportion of those
intervals that contain the true value of the parameter will be equal to the confidence
level.
Population Mean , 𝝁

𝒁𝒂 𝝈
ഥ±
𝒙 ∗
𝟐 𝒏

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
From Sample Data

Range of values

Likely include the population parameter

At some confidence level

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
 𝐶𝐿 = 95% 𝜶 = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05
ഥ± E
𝒙
𝒙 - point estimate
ഥ
E – margin of Error
𝝈 − 𝒌𝒏𝒐𝒘𝒏

𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐 𝒏

𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝑪𝑳
𝐶𝐿 = 1 - 𝛼
𝐶𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
𝜶 – significance level
𝐶𝐿 – confidence level

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
𝐶𝐿 = 95% 𝜶 = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05

-1.96 -1.96

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Scores on an exam are normally distributed with a population standard deviation
Of 5.6. A random sample of 40 scores on the exam has a mean of 32.
Estimate the population mean with 𝝈
1) 80% confidence 𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐 𝒏
2) 90% confidence
3) 98% confidence

𝝈 = 5.6
𝒏 = 𝟒𝟎
𝒙 = 32
ഥ

𝝈 𝟓. 𝟔
𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐 𝒏 𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐
𝟒𝟎

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
 𝝈 = 5.6 𝒏 = 𝟒𝟎 𝒙 = 32
ഥ

1) 80% confidence
𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐 𝒏

-1.28 -1.28

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
 𝝈 𝟓.𝟔
𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐
𝒏 = 1. 28 𝟒𝟎 = 1,13

Excel : CONFIDENCE (0.2, 5.6, 40 ) = 1.13

Lower Limit: 𝒙 - E = 32 - 1.13 = 30.87

ഥ
Upper Limit: ഥ
𝒙 + 𝑬 = 𝟑𝟐 + 𝟏. 𝟏𝟑 = 𝟑𝟑. 𝟏𝟑

30.87 < 𝝁 < 𝟑𝟑. 𝟏𝟑

𝒘𝒆 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝟖𝟎% 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏

𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟑𝟎. 𝟖𝟕 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟑. 𝟏𝟑

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
 𝝈 = 5.6 𝒏 = 𝟒𝟎 𝒙 = 32
ഥ

2) 90% confidence
𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒁𝒂 /𝟐 𝒏

𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟏

0.05 0.05 𝑍0.05 = 1.645

-1.645 -1.645 5.6

𝐸 = 1.645
40
𝐸 = 1.46

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Lower Limit: 𝒙 - E = 32 - 1.46 = 30.54
ഥ

Upper Limit: ഥ
𝒙 + 𝑬 = 𝟑𝟐 + 𝟏. 𝟒𝟔 = 𝟑𝟑. 𝟒𝟔
30.54 < 𝜇 < 33.46

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
𝝈 = 5.6 𝒏 = 𝟒𝟎 𝒙 = 32
ഥ

Confidence level 80% 90%

Critical value 1.28 1.645
Margin of error 1.13 1.46

𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 30.87, 33.13 30.54, 33.46

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL