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As early as the 4th March, when the Brest terms were announced in the Turkish
Parliament. Enver had declared, in answer to an interpellation, that Tut key did not
consider herself debarred from entering into friendly relations with new independent
Governments in former Russian territory, even beyond the Brest frontiers,* and during
the Batum negotiations these frontiers were already being passed by the Turkish troops.
During the month following the fall of Kara (26th April) the improvised forces of the
Armenian National Council had been organising a defence against this Turkish
aggression on the Alexandropol-Envan line; and in doing so they appear to have
evicted the Tatar inhabitants of the Erivan Government (where the population is
very mixed), and even in some cases to have burnt their villages.f Since the Tatars
were hostile to the Armenians, and had been in active relations since December at least
with Turkish agents, this was probably a legitimate military measure ; but it gave the
Turks an excuse for continuing their advance. On the :22nd May they announced the
occupation of Alexandropol, and on the 26th May the Constantinople Government sent
a telegram to Selim Fuad, the Turkish Minister at Berne, to the effect that:—
" The Armenians of the Caucasus have turned on the Moslem villages, and are
plundering and massacring. In response to an appeal from our co-religionists, we
have sent them the necessary help, and have taken steps for the safety of both the
lives and property of Moslems. It is therefore necessary to answer mendacious
statements in the press with the reply that this military help has been sent solely
for the suppression of Armenian brigandage, the responsibility for which must fall
on the shoulders of the Armenians."
On the same day (26th May) the Turkish Government sent an ultimatum to the
Trans-Caucasian Government demanding not only (a) acceptance of the Brest-Litovsk
terms (already agreed to); but also (b) the cession, in addition, of the Akhalkalaki
district of the Government of Tiflis; and of (c) a zone of territory in the Government
of Erivan ; and (d) unhindered transport of Turkish troops on all railways in Trans-
Caucasia for the duration of the war.J
As a result of this, the Trans-Caucasian Government and Parliament were dissolved
on the 27th May, and an independent republic of Georgia was proclaimed. The
Caucasian Tatars simultaneously proclaimed an independent Azerbaijan, and their
example Avas followed shortly at Erivan by the Armenians.
But the mutual frontiers of the three States seem to have been left unsettled, and
estimates of their area, given respectively by a Tatar and an Armenian delegate in
interviews with the press, differed considerably, though both assigned the largest area
to Azerbaijan, and reckoned Erivan as out of all proportion the smallest of the three. H
In fact, it seems to have been settled broadly that at least as much territory inhabited
by Armenians should be given to Azerbaijan on the north-east as was being torn' away
by Turkey on the south-west; while, on the other hand, the Armenians are claiming
territory towards Tiflis at the expense of Georgia.
But, in spite of the results nominally attained, the Constantinople Conference gives
.an impression of unreality. The real centre of gravity was not, Constantinople but
Berlin. It is even reported that a second conference sat there to revise the arrange
ments agreed on at the Turkish capital. And though this is said to have been
discontinued after von Kiihlmann's fall, it is clear that the delegates from Trans-
Caucasia regarded Constantinople merely as a stage on their journey, and looked to
Berlin for the decisive word.
Finally, it is reported this month by a delegate to the Armenian Conference
at Berlin (see below) that Germany has again informed Turkey that the terms
of the Brest Treaty must remain the basis of her negotiations with the three
States. If this is true, it means that Germany refuses to recognise either of the
Turkish, treaties-either the Batum Treaty of the 10th June or the Constantinople
Treaty of the 4th July.
* Evidently this agreement does not cover the Turkish Armenians deported: by the Turkish Government
in 1915.
I Another motive of the Armenians in conciliating the Turks is said to be the wish for Turkish backing
against the Georgians, against whom the Turks and Armenians have an interest in common.
j " Voix de l'Armenie," July 1-15, 1918.
S " Enemy Supplement," August 22, 1918.
I German Wireless, August 31, 1918.
" Enemy Supplement," August 22, 1918.
** " Aaty," June 28, 1918.
Turkey. During the months immediately preceding the Turkish advance in the
Caucasus they were reported to prefer a restoration of Russia to the prospect of coming
under Turkish rule.* But their minds may have been changed by the virtual elimination
of Russia from Trans-Caucasia and by their armed conflict with the Armenians in
April (Baku) and May (Erivan district). They may now be more anxious to co-operate
with the Turks, and also with the Daghestanis, to whom they gave offence by their
overbearing conduct in the earlier stages of the Revolution. Moreover, they have
always been reported to be violently Anglophobe (owing, no doubt, to their relations
with Persia and particularly with the Azerbaijani leaders of the Persian Nationalist
Movement at Tabriz), and this hostility to us has presumably been increased by our
landing at Baku.f
At the same time, the question of Baku is bringing the Tatars (and, through them,
Turkey) into conflict with Germany.]; At the Constantinople Conference the Tatars
are reported to have demanded Turco-German military assistance for the reduction of
Baku (which they claim as the proper capital of the Azerbaijan Republic), and the
Germans were said to be "offering no objection," provided the Tatars give the "formal
assurances" which Germany needed. Presumably these assurances were connected
with t h e allocation of the produce of the Baku oil-fields, and the control of the pipe-line
to Batum.^ But in the resume of the Russo-German supplementary treaty of the
27th August, circulated by the German Wireless on the 31st August, it is stated that,
"while the Bolshevik Government have agreed to Germany recognising the independ
ence of Georgia, they "lay very great stress on the oil-wells in the Baku region
being guaranteed to them, and Germany cannot but support this, as Russia, on her
side, has undertaken to place a portion of the produce of the wells at the disposal
of Germany and her allies."
Thus Germany, while giving the Tatars an evasive answer at Constantinople, has
settled the future of Baku with Russia over the heads of both Tatars and Turks. \\ And,
since Baku is a centre of communications as well as an oil-field, its restoration to Russia
would threaten the new autonomy of Azerbaijan, and still more the Turkish protectorate
over it.
Turkish authorities hastened to "take a plebiscite" as soon as these districts had been
occupied by their troops. On the 17th August a Constantinople telegram announced
that 85,124 votes out of 87,048 had been cast for reunion with Turkey, and that all
males over 19 years of age had voted. ^[ Considering that the whole Armenian element
had been either massacred or driven to take flight, there is nothing surprising in these
figures. It is amusing to observe that, once this plebiscite in the Armenians' absence
had been taken in due form, the Turks began to discuss the possibility of allowing the
refugees to ret urn. **
August:—
" A Turkey which would be prepared to renounce Mesopotamia and Arabia
in favour of England, in return for extensions in the Caucasus and beyond, would
mean an absolutely decisive alteration of the political world-picture for which we
are striving."
There is little evidence from Turkish sources that Turkish politicians contemplate
anything of the kind.^ They are still bent on recovering their integrity ; they insist
* E.g., "Enemy Supplement," May 16, 1918. These 11,000,000 of course really reoresent the
population, not of frans-Caucasia merely, but of the whole Caucasus Viceroyalty; and in both Trans-
Caucasia and the whole Caucasus the Moslems actually constitute about four-eleventlis and the Christians
seven-eli;veuths of the total.
t See section 4 above.
I A "Southern Caucasus Committee"—naturally a Moslem Committee—seems to have been formed at
Constantinople. See section 5 above.
5 Except for a sing-le report on the views of Dr. Nazim, who has recently been taken into the
Government.
on it in every statement of war-aims ; but they consider that this has been guaranteed
to them by Germany, and that it is therefore Germanys business to secure it for them
either by dictating terms after a military decision or by winning back the ground in
campaigns on the spot. Meanwhile, they do not see why they should not profit by the
dissolution of the "Russian Empire in the Caucasus, as Germany is doing in European
Russia on a larger scale.
The Germans think otherwise, and have taken characteristic steps to make their
own view prevail. The Turk, fancying himself the champion of civilisation and Islam
against anarchy, has found that he, too, like the Bolshevik, is one of the barbarians
against whom it is Germany's mission to protect promising nationalities. The insult
can hardly be wiped out. At any rate, it is unlikely to stimulate Turkey to transfer
her military energies to the southern fronts, in order to serve Germany's higher strategic
aims against England.
Addendum.
The Director of Military Intelligence noted on the 3rd October, 1918, with regard
to the above memorandum that the Turks have latterly been gaining the upper hand in
the Caucasus over the Germans:—
" The Germans have shown themselves unable to prevent the Turks from
taking Baku ; nor have the Germans been able (and possibly have not wished) to
protect the new Armenia against Turkey. The Germans in Trans-Caucasia have
admitted Turkish superiority and have pointed out the disadvantages of German
commitments to Georgia with regard to the Turco-Bulgarian dispute."
It has since been reported that, during Talaafs recent visit to Berlin, the Germans
promised him not only Baku hut the satisfaction of the Turkish claims against Bulgaria,
if only he would restrain the Ottoman Government from making a separate peace.
These promises are likely to have been increased since the Bulgarian armistice.
October 4, 1918.