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Renewed strength
in key chemical
end markets
kpmg.com/reaction
p2 p14 p22
Automotive Innovations Chemicals and
chemicals in supply construction
chain
management
Introduction
Welcome to the first edition of Reaction Magazine for 2015. With
the start of a new year, the underlying dynamics affecting the
industry are certainly mixed. A return to strong growth seems
to be entrenched in the US and UK, where long-awaited wage
growth and low inflation are finally feeding through to increased
consumer spending. China’s new normal of lower growth really
does appear to be here to stay. And the specter of eurozone chaos
has re-emerged with the recent issues in Greece. Meanwhile, the
collapse in the price of oil is either a blessing or a curse, depending
on where you are in the world as you read this. However, as we
speak to our clients, the overall feeling in the industry is one
of optimism, with thoughts very much focused on growth and
expansion. Let’s all hope that continues.
We will be back with our next edition in June which will focus on
the latest issues and opportunities in the US chemical industry
as well as a look at talent management, a key area of concern for
many companies in the industry.
If there are any topics you would like us to cover in future editions
of Reaction, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Content
02
Global automotive industry growth driving demand for
chemical products
Shifting back into high gear 04
Automotive chemicals: industry overview 08
Leaner and greener 10
A safe, comfortable trip 12
Connected cars: riding on a microchip 13
What global automotive executives are thinking 13
14
Supply chain optimization: preparing chemical companies to
better perform in a volatile world
Key issues impacting the chemical supply chain 16
Never waste a good risk 18
The people factor: stakeholder buy-in 19
Conclusion: toward a better supply chain 20
22
Building the 21st Century: chemicals and the global
construction industry
The construction chemicals sector today 24
Better building with innovations in chemistry 25
Industry issues for 2015 26
Global construction on the rise 28
Conclusion 31
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
2 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Global
aut motive
industry
growth driving
demand for
chemical products
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 3
With few exceptions, the global automotive industry has made a solid recovery from
the downturn in 2008. Led by China, Japan, the US and new growth markets, world
production levels have increased, sales are growing and prospects are positive for the
industry as a whole. Specialty chemicals help support the automotive industry through
a range of products designed to reduce vehicle weight for better mileage, enhance
performance, increase energy efficiency and improve manufacturing quality. Especially
exciting is the increased use of silicon-based microchips for displays, safety-critical
functions and entertainment systems in tomorrow’s
‘connected cars’.
© 2014
2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
4 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
1
Automobile Dealers Industry Profile, FirstResearch, January 2015.
2
Automobile Industry Market Research, Plunkett Research Ltd., http://www.plunkettresearch.com/
automobiles-trucks-market-research/industry-and-business-data; LMC Automotive.
3
IHS: Global vehicle production to increase by 21M units by 2021, China to account for half, www.autoblog.
com/2014/05/12/ihs-global-vehicle-production-forecast/, 12 May 2014.
4
Ibid.
5
KPMG’s Competence Centre Automotive, LMC Automotive, Global Automotive Production Forecast.
6
China Passes US as World’s Top Car Market, Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527487036
52104574651833126548364, 10 January 2010.
7
KPMG’s Competence Centre Automotive, LMC Automotive, Global Automotive Sales Forecast.
8
Ibid.
9
Ibid.
10
Korea - flash report, sales volume, 2014, Marklines, www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_
korea_2014.
11
Op.cit. Plunkett Research.
12
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: New-Vehicle Sales in 2015 Off to a Strong Start; January Retail Sales
Highest Since 2004, press release, http://canada.jdpower.com/press-releases/jd-power-and-lmc-automotive-
forecast-january-2015, 26 January 2015.
13
AutomotiveNow Magazine, KPMG, Edition 1, 2014.
14
Winter Economic Forecast: outlook improved but risks remain, press release, http://europa.eu/rapid/
press-release_IP-15-4085_en.htm, 5 February 2015.
15
Positives and Negatives Affecting the Recovery of Western Europe’s Car Market, Euromonitor International, March 2014.
16
Ibid.; LMC Automotive
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 5
8.91
9.73
Toyota
Renault 7.75
9.12
Nissan
General 7.72
7.37
Motors
6.86
6.33
Hyundai/Kia
5.87
Ford
3.07
PSA
2.66
Suzuki
0 2 4 6 8 10
70 US
65 Canada
60 Other
Eastern Europe
55
Brazil/Argentina
50
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1998
1999
2001
2012
2013
2014
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2010
2011
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
6 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
4.4 98.1
90.3
2017 4.9
3.9 2016 2018
86.0 101.5
3.5 - 6 Tons 0 - 3.5 Tons
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 7
Sub-Saharan Africa
(915 MILLION PEOPLE)
India
(1.3 BILLION PEOPLE)
China
(1.4 BILLION PEOPLE)
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8 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Automotive chemicals:
industry overview
The global automotive chemicals Lubricants tailor-made for automotive Several countries in the Asia-
market is influenced mainly by dye casting help ensure high levels of Pacific region are also focusing on
passenger car production and the quality and structural integrity that are investments in specialty chemicals. For
increasing utilization of plastics in crucial for safety and performance. instance, Singapore has gained traction
vehicle designs. Plastics now account in automotive-related chemicals with
Major suppliers and producers of
for around 15 percent of materials a nearly US$2 billion investment in
automotive chemicals include:
in a mid size car17 and plastic-based lubricants and synthetic rubber.22 Asia-
products and materials are found • AkzoNobel (Netherlands) and PPG Pacific is also emerging as a key market
in car exteriors, bumpers, interiors, Industries (US), manufacturing for automotive lubricants. The longer
electronics, seats, runners, lights, automotive coatings to preserve the operating life of vehicles, increased
dashboards and windshields. appearance and durability of vehicles. production of vehicles and a greater
awareness among customers have
Automotive plastics consumption • Bayer MaterialScience (Germany),
increased the demand for automotive
worldwide is expected to grow from supplying raw materials for high-
coolants among consumers and
7.1 million tons in 2012 to 11.3 million performance plastic polycarbonate,
by 2019, the Asia-Pacific region is
tons by 2018 at an expected growth polyurethane foams, coatings and films.
expected to represent more than
rate of 8 percent annually.18 The Asia-
• Dow Chemical Company (US), 40 percent of the global automotive
Pacific region leads consumption with
providing structural foams, brake coolants market.23
50.5 percent of the market, followed
fluids, adhesives, resins and glass
by Europe (28 percent) North America
bonding systems.
(11.3 percent) and the rest of the world
(10.1 percent).19 • Evonik Industries (Germany),
supplying specialty chemicals for
Along with plastics and plastic
polymers, composites, oils, fluids,
composites, automotive chemicals are
coatings and other solutions used in
used in fuel additives, films, coolants,
automotive manufacturing.
insulation for noise abatement,
airbags, batteries, tires and many • Momentive Performance Materials
other products. Chemicals are also (US), providing adhesives, sealants,
a key ingredient in engine oils and coatings and resins.
transmission fluids, helping today’s
Recent chemical industry
high-performance engines perform
developments reflect the growing
over a broad temperature range
importance of emerging economies and
while maximizing performance and
the necessity for automotive chemical
minimizing formulation costs.
producers to follow their customers. Automotive plastics
Chemicals are even being used to BASF is building an automotive coatings consumption worldwide is
enhance the automotive manufacturing plant in China.20 BASF is also investing
process. For example, original in India.21 A Würth (Germany) subsidiary expected to grow from
equipment manufacturers (OEMs) headquartered in Navi Mumbai, India, 7.1 million tons in 2012 to
are converting many steel structural will take over the import, distribution 11.3 million tons by 2018 at an
components that are stamped and and technical services in India of
welded to lighter weight aluminum Glasurit, a BASF automotive refinish expected growth rate of
components that are dye cast. paint brand. 8 percent annually.
17
Bayer MaterialScience, materialscience.bayer.com/.../automotive.aspx.
18
Global automotive plastics market to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% to 2018, Plastemart.com, www.plastemart.
com/Plastic-Technical-Article.asp?LiteratureID=2096&Paper=Global-%20automotive-plastics-market-to-grow-
till-2018.
19
Ibid.
20
BASF opens €50-million automotive coatings plant at Shanghai, Chemical Week, http://www.chemweek.com/
markets/specialty_chemicals/paints_and_coatings/BASF-opens-&euro50-million-automotive-coatings-plant-at-
Shanghai_62688.html, 24 July 2014.
21
BASF and Würth team up for automotive refinish coatings business in India, Chemical Week, www.
chemweek.com/home/top_of_the_news/BASF-and-Wurth-team-up-for-automotive-refinish-coatings-business-
in-India_66224.html, 17 December 2014.
22
New plan, rethink for Jurong Island, The Business Times, www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/
special-feature-jurong-island/new-plan-rethink-for-jurong-island, 24 November 2014.
23
Lucintel estimates that Asia Pacific will consume more than 40% of the global automotive coolants by 2019,
press release, www.digitaljournal.com/pr/2279555, 23 October 2014.
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 9
Polyurethanes 17.3%
Composites 11.5%
28.1
50.5%
North America
11.3%
Asia-Pacific
%
Europe
10.1%
Rest of world
Source: Global automotive plastics market to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% to 2018, Plastemart.com
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
10 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Leaner and
greener
The automotive industry clearly petroleum-derived, fuel-burning engines.
understands that less is more when it Key developments include improved
comes to weight. Less weight means engines with more efficient fuel and
greater savings in fuel costs, lower fuel air management systems and catalytic
costs and reduced levels of greenhouse devices that destroy pollutants found in
gas (GHG) emissions. The good news exhaust tailpipes.
is that chemicals are supporting these
Advanced petroleum refining techniques
objectives in more ways than one.
developed by chemical engineers also
Plastics now make up 50 percent help reduce pollutants. One example is
of the volume of new cars, but only hydrotreatment, which uses hydrogen
10 percent of the weight.24 Modern gas and a catalyst to produce gasoline
polyesters reduce the quantity of and diesel fuel with significantly
foam used in seats, decreasing their lower levels of sulfur and lead. These
weight significantly. Light weight techniques have made it possible to
polycarbonates and their blends are produce reformulated fuels that function
starting to be tailored for sunroofs, as effectively as earlier leaded fuels while
panoramic roofs and side and rear releasing fewer pollutants.
windows. Polyamide containers for
In addition, automotive chemical
air bags are more than 50 percent
products save twice the GHG emissions
lighter than their metal equivalents.25
than are emitted in making the products
Body plastic panels also help to reduce
themselves.27 The following ratios refer
weight, besides being cheap and easy
to emissions saved by employing the
to produce.
product versus emissions from creating
One type of polymer composite in the product:
particular – carbon fiber reinforced
• diesel additives (improved fuel
composites – presents major weight-
efficiency): 111:1
saving opportunities for structural
vehicle components. The material is • engine efficiency: 21:1
50 percent lighter than conventional steel
• plastics for light weighting
and 30 percent lighter than aluminum.
automobiles: 3:1.
BMW is using the material as the body
structure of its electric city car, the i3,
which was introduced in 2014.26
Plastics now make up
To help make cars even greener, 50 percent of the volume of
chemical engineers have worked with
manufacturers to devise ways to reduce new cars for only 10 percent of
the amount of pollution produced by the weight.
24
Plastics in Automotive Applications, American Chemistry Council, http://plastics.americanchemistry.com/
Market-Teams/Automotive.
25
How does the automotive industry rely on petrochemistry?, Xperimania.net, www.xperimania.net/ww/en/
pub/xperimania/news/world_of_materials/car_industry.htm.
26
ACC’s ‘Roadmap’ gaining traction, Plastics News, www.plasticsnews.com/article/20150122/
NEWS/150129969/accs-roadmap-gaining-traction, 22 January 2015.
27
Innovations for Greenhouse Gas Reductions, American Chemistry Council, www.americanchemistry.com/
Policy/Energy/Climate-Study/Innovations-for-Greenhouse-Gas-Reductions.pdf, 2009.
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 11
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12 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
A safe, comfortable
trip
In the recently published KPMG’s Flexible molded foams made of
Global Automotive Executive Survey polyurethane are used in seats,
Around 52 percent of
2015, respondents said that consumers headrests and armrests. These foams automotive executives in a
are still fixated on traditional product help to dampen vibrations and offer recent KPMG survey believe
issues, with fuel efficiency rated clearly increased stability to passengers.
as number one, followed closely by Drivers’ and passengers’ comfort is also
that safety innovation is one of
safety and comfort.28 Safety is a critical taken care of with noise insulation by the most important features of
benefit of automotive chemicals. While sound-absorbing polyurethane. Modern the consumer purchase
the airbag container contributes to the coatings protect against rain and snow,
weight of the car, airbags are vital to the UV rays and corrosion. They also offer
decision.
safety of the passengers. Modern nylon color stability over a long period. The
offers a good balance of strength and chemical industry is even conducting
resistance for airbags. Tires made from research on phosphorescent coatings
styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR) reduce which absorb sunlight during the day
rolling resistance and improve safety. and release it at night.
In the past years the importance of semiconductors technologies based on semiconductor microchips can
has increased significantly in the automotive industry. be a crucial interactive tool, especially when linked to
According to the World Semiconductor Trade location, offering not just traffic guidance, but also useful
Statistics (WSTS) 2015 forecast, the market growth local retail or leisure options, personalized news and
of semiconductors will in fact be largely driven by the entertainment, and other services, which can all provide a
automotive industry. Moreover, due to increasing demand healthy revenue stream. Ultimately, it should be possible
for connectivity and the resulting need for microchips the to predict what products and services the customer is
automotive semiconductor market is expected to grow most likely to want.
stronger than other industry segments. These microchips
But that’s not the only example – as showcased in
are mostly made out of silicon due to its effective semi-
KPMG’s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2015,
conductive properties that ensure a partial conduction of
respondents said consumers would remain focused
electricity, which is essential for the complex electronics
on traditional product issues such as fuel efficiency
connectivity systems require. Furthermore, since Original
and safety when buying a car. Thus, with chemical
Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) should consider
companies developing materials to provide the highest
customers’ lives as a whole, rather than viewing them
safety standards possible and reduce the weight by
as simply `drivers’, microchips are the enabler to do so.
using plastics and carbon fiber, which implies fuel
Additionally, to capture the real value of connectivity,
savings, it is of value to the automotive sector. Whatever
vehicle manufacturers have to use the power of data
direction the global automotive industry takes,
to get inside their customers’ heads, understand what
automotive chemicals can help to lower costs, improve
drives their behavior and adapt business models to
performance, and increase sustainability for raw
target groups of like-minded individuals. Connected car
materials, components, and vehicles around the world.
28
KPMG’s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2015.
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 13
Connected cars:
riding on a microchip
For today’s cars, performance means chemicals and gases can create a huge
processing capability as much as problem.
horsepower. In fact, increasingly tech-
Chemical engineers pioneered the mass
savvy customers are helping to create
production of silicon microchips in the
a completely new mobility culture
1970s30 and today they are routinely
where cars are expected to be not only
involved with the development of
greener, but also smarter and more
advanced semiconductor materials
connected.29 Driver assistance systems,
and the manufacturing processes
security, entertainment, sensors,
required to produce them. Chemical
cameras, anti-skid systems, location
engineers are also constantly pursuing
devices and various engine control
advanced technologies and procedures
systems are now directly or indirectly
to ensure that the substances used in
dependent on computers.
critical procedures maintain low levels
All of these innovations are dependent of contaminants – so low, in fact, that
on computer microchips and that they are measured in parts per million
is where the automotive chemical to parts per trillion. Modern clean rooms
industry plays a vital role. Producing rely on highly engineered systems
microchips is one of the most developed by chemical engineers to
challenging procedures in modern capture, contain and control dust,
manufacturing. Even the tiniest airborne microbes and chemical vapors.
of impurities found in processed
29
Me, my car, my life... in the ultraconnected age, KPMG, www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/IssuesAndInsights/
ArticlesPublications/Documents/me-my-life-my-car.pdf, 2014.
30
Achievements in Electronics, Chemical Engineers in Action, http://www.chemicalengineering.org/electronics/achieve.html.
31
KPMG’s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2015
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14 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Supply chain
optimization
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 15
volatile world
Shifting patterns in supply and demand, cost pressures, market segmentation, third-party
distribution and other factors mean that chemical supply chains need to be increasingly
agile, sustainable, cost-effective, efficient and responsive to customer demands. New
solutions are on the way that involve supply chain customization, improved people
management, industrial parks for suppliers and manufacturers and disruptive technology
such as ‘big data’ and predictive analytics that are turning risks into opportunities for
today’s chemical companies.
By
Haijo Kampinga
Ricardo Tulkens
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
16 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Ever-expanding gas
US production, million barrels per day
18
15
12
3
Forecast
0
1900 20 40 60 80 2000 20 40
32
Strong Chemical Output Forecast For The U.S. In 2015, Chemical and Engineering News, cen.acs.org/
articles/92/web/2014/12/Strong-Chemical-Output-Forecast-US.html, 15 December 2014.
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 17
markets that are rapidly changing in size For example, China is investing heavily Changing customer base
and composition. in supply chains for coal-based olefins to
Chemical companies will continue to
support increased production levels. In
This is especially important as traditional generate the majority of their revenues
the US, supply chains need to support
distinctions between developed and from fewer key customers. As a result,
continued growth based on cheaper
emerging markets continue to evolve outsourcing of smaller customers
feedstocks and a growing domestic
in an increasingly globalized economy. to a third-party distributor will be an
market, especially in automotive and
Speaking broadly, we might say that attractive option to enhance profitability
construction. US chemical shipments
parts of Africa are where India was and efficiency.
are expected to rise by about 25 percent
20 years ago in terms of chemical
over the next 5 years to a total of In short, the shifting balance
production and consumption. India is
US$1 trillion.33 By contrast, European between supply and demand regions
where China was 20 years ago. And
chemical production is forecast to rise combined with the trend toward
other areas, such as Latin America
only 1 percent in 2015 according to the market segmentation and third-party
and the Association of Southeast
European Chemical Industry Council distribution is requiring new supply
Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries
(Cefic).34 Other markets, such as Latin chain strategies that focus on low-cost,
fall somewhere in the middle of this
America, Africa and Japan continue to efficient supply chains for commodity
growth trajectory. Each region demands
grow but at a slower pace, requiring chemicals and a responsive, innovative
its own approach to the design and
less investment in supply chain and customer-centric approach for
development of supply chains.
development. specialty chemicals.
Recover and
Staff consultation Close fix again Transformational growth strategy
Rapid cash generation
Financing options Differentiation in the market
Accelerated disposals
Preparation for insclvency Refinance
Failure
Decline
Emerging Western
Japan US
markets Europe
33
Ibid.
34
Cefic Cuts Forecast for 2015 European Chemical Output to 1%, PUDAily.com, www.pudaily.com/News/
NewsView.aspx?nid=48944, 11 December 2014.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
18 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
300
US$ billion
250 8%
5.
8%
5.
200
1%
5.
9%
150 4.
1%
3.
100
50 %
7.2
0
2010 2014 2018
Asia-Pacific North America Commonwealth of Independent States
Western Europe Latin America Middle East and North Africa
Never waste a
good risk
Any change in the supply chain development, operational planning together is a matter of literally placing
introduces an element of risk. and many other areas. Companies can production plants and their suppliers
Chemical companies have always been leverage big data and social media to side-by-side in the same industrial
risk-aware, but risk-averse. This makes realize customer intelligence across park, sometimes just a few feet apart.
good business sense in an industry channels, enabling them to provide This approach has also been adopted
that requires complex infrastructures, proactive and personalized customer by Singapore with Jurong Island, an
capital-intensive assets and long-term service. Data analytics can be used to integrated manufacturing complex
market strategies. However, the recent identify waste, monitor overcapacity, developed by a partnership between
global downturn has showed us that prevent shortages, understand the true the government and the private
a crisis can spur new ways of thinking cost to serve a particular market and sector.35 Verbund manufacturing
and innovations that result in improved gauge the impact of new customer enables companies to create efficient,
performance and profitability. In the channels. value-adding supply chains starting
same way, chemical companies can with basic chemicals and extending to
A company’s risk posture can also
turn supply chain risks into business higher value products like coatings and
be changed by rethinking how
opportunities for sustainable growth. crop protection products. In addition,
manufacturers and their suppliers can
by products from one plant can be
Big data, social media, predictive work together to help save resources
used as raw materials elsewhere,
analytics and cloud-based solutions are and energy. European chemical
further increasing supply chain
disruptive technologies that influence companies such as BASF have
efficiencies.
risk in terms of margins, customer developed a solution called verbund
retention, market growth, product manufacturing in which working
35
ASEAN: emerging market leaders in Southeast Asia, Reaction Magazine, issue 15, December 2014.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 19
Get everybody in the same room: This might sound Be specific: “If you can’t measure it, you can’t change
obvious, but supply chain leaders are often surprised at it.” This adage applies to supply chains as much as
the misconceptions that co-workers — not to mention anything else in business. Key performance indicators
third-party vendors — have about each person’s role and (KPIs) are needed to accurately track performance
responsibility. Face-to-face discussions can clarify who and identify issues and shortfalls. KPI-based reports
is responsible for what, helping to reduce situations can also be shared with finance departments to help
where a lack of accountability causes key activities to fall them better understand the supply chain’s cost drivers.
between the cracks. Meetings held on a regular basis This understanding by finance can help build a bridge
can also be an effective venue for problem-solving, the between the objectives of the CFO and the realities
exchange of new ideas and a way to keep stakeholders of supply chain operations. Moreover, our experience
informed of new issues and developments related to the shows that once finance professionals are properly
supply chain. Improved communication can help manage informed about supply chain operations, they uncover
expectations, anticipate objections, control demand- untapped cost savings that may not have been apparent
supply volatility and mitigate unforeseen developments. to supply chain professionals.
36
Enabling Organizational Change Through Strategic Initiatives, PMI.org, www.pmi.org/~/media/PDF/Publications/
Enabling-Change-Through-Strategic-Initiatives.ashx, March 2014; Why Good Strategies Fail: Lessons for the C-Suite,
The Economist Intelligence Unit, www.pmi.org/~/media/PDF/Publications/WhyGoodStrategiesFail_Report_EIU_PMI.
ashx, July 2013; Cracking the Code for Change, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2000/05/cracking-the-code-
of-change/ar/1, May 2000.
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20 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Conclusion: toward a
better supply chain
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Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 21
Author
Haijo Kampinga
Director, Strategy &
Operations
KPMG in the Netherlands
T: +31 (0) 20 656 8504
E: kampinga.haijo@kpmg.nl
Haijo has more than 10 years
of experience in supply chain
and operations programs
in chemicals, life science and
automotive. He has extensive
expertise in supply chain
transformations including
end-to-end planning, supply
chain distribution, supplier
development, resilience,
innovation and cost
optimization.
Ricardo Tulkens,
KPMG in the Netherlands
T: +31 20 656 4562
E: tulkens.ricardo@kpmg.nl
Ricardo is a partner within
the Operation Strategy
Group in the Netherlands
responsible for supply chain
management. He has worked
for more than 20 years on
assignments that have
involved translating business
strategy into operational
execution. He has worked on
assignments over the total
value chain, from purchasing,
development, manufacturing,
warehousing and distribution
to sales and service.
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22 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
chemicals
and the global
construction
industry
Specialty chemicals have helped shape today’s global construction
industry, introducing new levels of structural strength, protection
and energy efficiency to homes, commercial buildings and public
infrastructure around the world. The industry faces a number of issues,
such as feedstock price volatility, changing patterns of regional demand
and economic uncertainty, but the benefits and, indeed, the necessity of
chemicals used in construction promise strong growth for the sector in
the years ahead.
By
Geno Armstrong
Clay Gilge
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 23
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
24 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
China
Western
North Europe Japan
America
Rest
of the
world
2009
27% 22% 13% 12% 26%
2012
42% 16% 13% 8% 21%
Source: Construction chemicals, IHS, 1 October 2013
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 25
37
Construction chemicals, IHS, 1 October 2013.
38
American Chemistry Council, www.americanchemistry.com.
39
Ibid.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
26 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Industry issues
for 2015
As we discuss below, global economic Economic uncertainty: Despite a Europe, construction will be focused
trends suggest that the construction general consensus that the global on new buildings while renovation
industry will continue to grow in economy should benefit from lower is likely to be the focus in more
size and diversity as a market for oil prices, the dramatic and rapid fall mature economies such as Europe.
construction chemicals.40 However, in these prices has some analysts and This will directly influence the usage
a realistic assessment of the future industry leaders concerned. “A gradually patterns – concrete admixtures are
should include a number of issues declining price would be a positive,” says predominantly used for new buildings
that may have a significant impact on Craig Rogerson, chairman and CEO of while adhesives and sealants are
construction activity and demand for Chemtura, “but the swift decline we’ve consumed more during renovation.
construction chemicals in 2015. seen could indicate further softening
or a major disruption in the global
Oil price volatility: From July 2014 to
economy.”43 The chemical industry has
January 2015, the price of oil dropped from
made a steady recovery since the global
over US$100 per barrel to under US$50,
downturn, but slowing economic growth
a plunge of 55 percent in 6 months.41
rates in Asia and persistent financial
In the same way that domestic natural
problems across Europe are having an
gas supplies are helping US companies,
impact on global economic confidence.
lower oil prices should be a net positive
These developments suggest the oil
for the chemical industry in general and
price decline is not just a supply side
construction chemicals in particular. End-
issue, as has been widely reported.
market demand by builders continues “A gradually declining price
to strengthen and declining oil prices Changing usage patterns:
would be a positive,” says Craig
cut raw material costs for chemical Chemical companies serving the
manufacturers. According to Dewey construction industry are large and Rogerson, chairman and CEO of
Johnson, vice-president of petrochemicals multinational entities, with upstream Chemtura, “but the swift decline
and feedstocks at IHS Chemical, lower oil and downstream supply chains
we’ve seen could indicate
should fuel stronger overall GDP growth crossing multiple regions. Successful
and the potential for greater product companies will have to adapt to further softening or a major
substitution as lower feedstocks make complex global markets as they disruption in the global
chemicals more cost competitive relative expand, contract and diversify. In Asia,
economy”.
to competing materials.42 South and Central America and Eastern
40
The Chemistry of Construction, Reaction Magazine, June 2011.
41
Will Collapse in Oil Price Cause a Stock Market Crash?, Oilprice.net, http://oil-price.net/en/articles/
will-collapse-in-oil-price-cause-stock-market-crash.php, 1 January 2015.
42
Ibid.
43
Ibid.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 27
To help meet the challenges facing the global design. They also need to demonstrate a greater level
construction industry, builders, architects and engineers of sophistication in controls and governance and adopt
need to take a more active role in their clients’ a more strategic, portfolio-wide view by introducing
businesses by helping to enforce engineering standards, innovative ways to implement multiple projects to bring
protecting intellectual property and improving facilities, greater efficiencies and to reduce costs.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
28 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
Global construction
on the rise
If a rising tide lifts all ships, then their share of global construction
chemical companies serving the increases from 35 percent to
In line with this trend, the
global construction industry should 55 percent by 2020.46 global construction industry –
be encouraged by recent estimates which currently represents
In the Chinese construction sector,
of a steady rise in GDP growth and the
number of building projects around
the government recently initiated 13 percent of global GDP – is
a mini-stimulus to the economy by
the world. expected to expand to
relaxing home purchase restrictions
World real GDP growth is expected and cutting the benchmark interest 15 percent by 2020, representing
to increase to 3 percent in 2015 rate.47 This is expected to trigger over US$10 trillion in value.
from 2.7 percent in 2014, reaching greater domestic demand over the
3.4 percent in 2016.44 In line with this next year. Key growth areas in China
trend, the global construction industry – also include infrastructure projects
which currently represents 13 percent for transportation, energy, schools,
of global GDP – is expected to expand to hospitals, government buildings and
15 percent by 2020, representing over water supply. Infrastructure projects in
US$12 trillion in value.45 emerging countries overall are expected
to increase 130 percent by 2020.48
Not surprisingly, most of this growth
will occur in emerging countries as
14.0 16.0%
12.0 15.5%
12
Contribution to global GDP (%)
15.0%
Industry value (US$ trillion)
10.0
14.5%
8.0
15%
7.2 14.0%
6.0
13.5%
4.0
13.0%
2.0 13%
12.5%
0.0 12.0%
2013 2020
Industry value (US$ trillion) Contribution to global GDP
Source: Global Construction Expected to Increase by $4.8 Trillion by 2020, Industry Tap, 8 March 2013
44
2015 Forecast: Can demand shrug off crude price shock?, IHS Chemical Week, www.chemweek.com/
lab/2015-Forecast-Can-demand-shrug-off-crude-price-shock_66710.html, 14 January 2015.
45
Global Construction Expected to Increase by $4.8 Trillion by 2020, Industry Tap, 8 March 2013. See also Global
construction outlook: executive summary, IHS Economics, 12 December 2014.
46
First-tier cities expected to lift property restrictions, China Daily, 6 January 2015.
47
Global Construction Expected to Increase by $4.8 Trillion by 2020.
48
Ibid.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 29
11.2 11.7
12.0 11.0
10.3 10.5
10.0
10.0 9.0 9.3
8.3 8.5
8.0 8.2
7.6 7.5 7.5 7.6
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Global Construction Outlook: Executive Summary, IHS Economics, 12 December 2014.
Western
Europe Asia-
North Pacific
America
Latin Middle
America East and
Africa
5%
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
30 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
5.0%
2.4% 4.0%
5.2%
3.0%
3.9% 2.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.0%
2,531.5
1,780.0
847.0
742.0
599.0
427.0
344.0
248.3
267.0
205.4
173.5
154.0
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Reaction | Sixteenth Edition 31
710.7
651.0 568.6
574.4
556.9 535.7
Geno Armstrong
KPMG in the US
500.5
T: +1 415 963 7301
E: garmstrong@kpmg.com
357.7 342.2
286.8
253.9 249.1 252.7 Geno has more than
20 years of domestic
and international
development and
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
construction experience
Residential Non-residential and currently serves
as KPMG’s global
Source: Construction spending, United States Census Bureau, accessed 12 January 2015.
practice leader for its
Major Projects Advisory
Just as China will remain the growth of 42 percent in 2013 and 57 percent in
practice.
leader in Asia, the US will lead 2014, spurred by massive chemical- and
construction growth among developed energy-related projects.51
countries. US construction starts for
In Europe, some analysts predict
2015 are predicted to rise 9 percent
that from 2014 to 2016, Ireland and
to US$612 billion, even stronger
Poland will witness average growth in
growth than was achieved in 2014.49
construction output of 9 and 6 percent,
Commercial building is expected to
respectively.52 The UK, Denmark and
increase 15 percent, led by construction
Hungary are also among the fastest-
for office buildings, hotels and
growing construction markets in
warehouses. Single family housing
Europe, with current growth rates of
is also expected rise 15 percent, Clay Gilge
3 to 4 percent per annum.53 South and
driven by greater access to home KPMG in the US
Central America, Japan, Africa and other
mortgage loans.50 Manufacturing plant T: +1 206 913 4670
Asia should see steady but moderate
construction is predicted to settle back E: cgilge@kpmg.com
growth.
16 percent following the huge increases
Clay is a principal
in KPMG’s Major
Conclusion Projects Advisory
practice specializing
With a steady stream of innovative, sustainable, high-performing and cost-effective in construction
products, construction chemicals production is one of the key growth areas of the project and program
global chemical industry. Economic concerns might add uncertainty to long-term strategy, management,
forecasts for demand, but one thing is certain – construction chemicals will be governance and
essential for building a better world in the 21st century. controls. He primarily
advises owners with
major capital programs
by helping to improve
project performance and
project management
49
Construction Industry to See More Balanced Growth in 2015 According to Dodge Data & Analytics, http://
construction.com/about-us/press/construction-industry-to-see-more-balanced-growth-in-2015-according-to-
maturity as well as
DDG.asp, 6 November 2014. address areas of risk or
50
Ibid. control issues.
51
Ibid.
52
Sector report, Chemicals, Helvea Baader Bank Group, 4 August 2014.
53
Ibid.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
32 Reaction | Sixteenth Edition
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Publication name: Reaction Magazine – Sixteenth Edition
Publication number: 132192-G
Publication date: March 2015