IE216 – Risk Analysis and Management

SOLVE THE FOLLOWING PROBLEMS:

1. The following information about risk of school bus accidents are known. There are
448,000 school buses in the US., annually 130 accidental deaths occur. Approximately 3%
of all fatalities are fire fatalities of which 8% are occupants of the bus, the rest are
pedestrians and occupants of other cars involved in the accidents with the buses. Each
bus travels an average of 9500 miles/year. Determine:

a) Frequency of fire-related fatalities for both occupants and nonoccupants of the

school buses.
b) Fire-related fatality for occupants and nonoccupants per 100 million miles travelled.

2. Consider the fault tree below:

G3 G1

*
+

G4 B G2 A

*
Other givens:
P(A) = P(C) = P(E) = 0.01
P(B) = P(D) = 0.0092
D E B C

Find: a) all minimal cut sets, and b) the top event probability.
3. An event tree is used in reactor accident estimation as shown:

Where sequence 1 is a success and sequences 2 and 3 are failures. The cut sets of
system x and y are.

X = A•B + A•C + D

Y = B•D + E + A

Find cut sets of sequences 2 and 3.

4. Consider the event tree and fault trees below.

(a) Determine a Boolean equation representing each of the event tree scenarios in
terms of the fault tree basic events (C1, C2, and C3).
 (b) If the frequency of the initiating event I is 10– 3/ year, and Pr (C1) = 0.001, Pr (C2)
= 0.008, and Pr (C3) = 0.005, calculate the risk (injuries per year).

5. The total test time of a device is 50,000 h. The test is terminated after the first failure. If
the pdf of the device TTF is known to be exponentially distributed, what is the probability
that the estimated failure rate is not greater than 4,6 x 10 -5 (per h).

6. Seven pumps have failure times (in months) of 15.1, 10.7, 8.8, 11.3, 12.6, 14.4 and 8.7.
(Assume an exponential distribution.)
a) Find the point estimate of the MTTF.
b) Estimate the reliability of the pump for t = 12 months.
c) Calculate the 95% two-sided interval of .