Diplomatic Battleground

THE scene of a diplomatic battle between Pakistan and India has now shifted to New York
with the commencement of the UN General Assembly session. Although the leaders of the
two countries have yet to address the UNGA, their activities on the sidelines have already set
the tone. While Narendra Modi has been there before, it is the first time for Imran Khan on
the big stage.

For the Pakistani prime minister, the main task is to draw the attention of the world leaders towards
the Indian action and violation of human rights in India-held Kashmir. Given the apathy of the
international community, it will be a tough diplomatic challenge for the Pakistani leader to make
any significant impact on world leaders and get them to break their deafening silence.

While it may be true that the plight of the Kashmiri people under Indian subjugation has been
widely reported, thus evoking a strong reaction from human rights organisations, the international
community continues to remain indifferent. And this attitude is not likely to change, however
forcefully the prime minister presents Kashmir’s case. It has nothing to do with our diplomatic
effort or the lack of it; it has more to do with global power politics.

The Houston ‘Howdy Modi’ rally demonstrated the growing influence of the Indian diaspora in
the US.

And that’s what Modi has been focusing on, despite being in an indefensible position with regard
to his ruthless action in the occupied territory. India being a global economic power along with its
geopolitical position has given Modi an enormous diplomatic advantage. He has shrewdly tried to
cast off human rights concerns as a transient problem, though not very successfully.

The Houston rally ‘Howdy Modi’ demonstrated the growing influence of the Indian diaspora in
the US. The main objective of that show of force was to deflect the attention from anti-Modi
protests organised by various diaspora groups.

Addressing the rally where US President Donald Trump was also present, Modi declared, amidst
thunderous applause, that the annexation of occupied Kashmir was his government’s biggest
achievement. The protest outside the arena didn’t matter to him. The bogey of ‘Islamist terrorism’
worked well with Trump. The bonhomie between the two leaders was evident. Unsurprisingly, the
Indians saw the event and participation of the US president as a diplomatic coup on the eve of the
UNGA session.

Imran Khan’s meeting with President Trump in New York this week was indeed significant. It is
certainly rare for an American president to have one-on-one meetings with foreign leaders on the
sidelines of the UNGA. That may have involved some backchannel diplomatic efforts, but personal
chemistry between the two leaders could also be a factor. The joint press conference before the
talks reflected as much. It is still the Afghan issue that remains the key factor in the transformation
of Trump’s tenor regarding Pakistan. But given Trump’s volatility it could change any time.
What transpired in the 45-minute-long meeting is not clear. But excitement on yet another offer of
mediation on Kashmir from Trump is highly misplaced. Such an offer has invariably come on
Pakistan’s prodding or in reply to a question by a Pakistani journalist as happened in New York.

Carried away by such off-the-cuff remarks, our foreign minister takes no time at all to declare it a
diplomatic victory. He ignores the fact that such an offer comes with the condition of India
accepting arbitration. “If I can help I will certainly do that,” said Trump. “If both (Pakistan and
India) want, I am ready, willing to do it,” he added. India’s position not to accept third-party
arbitration on Kashmir is very clear, and there is no pressure on it to change its stance.

Moreover, how can we presume that American mediation would help Pakistan given the increasing
US tilt towards India? It is true that the Trump administration has not endorsed Modi’s actions in
occupied Kashmir, but it is not willing to express concern over the human rights violation by the
Indian forces there either. Trump’s comment at the New York presser that every one must be
treated well in Kashmir is too vague to be interpreted as US concern over the plight of the Kashmiri
people.

Of course, better relations with the United States is very important for us, and we must try to put
forward our case more effectively in order to win diplomatic support of other world powers for
recognition of the human and political rights of the Kashmiri people. But one should also recognise
that it is going to be a long-drawn diplomatic battle. Surely, the UNGA provides a very effective
forum for Pakistan to fight its case. Yet one must not have any hope that the international
community can be persuaded to censure India’s denial of human rights to millions of people. Our
choices are limited.

Pakistan’s diplomatic clout has eroded over the years because of political instability and economic
insecurity. The government has failed even to build a national narrative on this critical issue. Imran
Khan has been warning the world of catastrophe if the Kashmir issue is not resolved. But the
internal political strife in Pakistan and its economic dependency on other countries have raised
questions about our ability to defend ourselves. While the prime minister is fighting a diplomatic
battle, the political situation at home does not give us much confidence.

It is evident that India will not be able to control the situation in held Kashmir, and the use of brutal
military tactics is bound to worsen the situation. It is a battle the Kashmiri people have to fight on
various fronts. Indeed, Pakistan’s diplomatic and political support is critical but it depends on how
the Kashmiri people wage their struggle. Diplomatic efforts can only be effective if the
international community feels that the situation demands its attention.

Both the Pakistani and Indian prime ministers will be addressing the UNGA on Sept 27. The
leaders gathered there will be interested in hearing them. Not that they are unaware of what has
been happening in the occupied territory and the danger of the conflict turning into a wider
conflagration. Yet it is important for Prime Minister Imran Khan to make a convincing case for
the world to heed.