JOURNAL OF VERBAL LEARNING AND VERBAL BEHAVIOR 6, 151-155 (1967)

Illusory Correlation in Observational Report ~

LOI~EN J. CHAPMAN
Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois 62903

Phenomena from such diverse areas as superstition, belief in primitive magic,

errors in clinical observations, social prejudice, and halo effect have certain simi-
larities. All are based on a systematic error in reports of observations of a supposed
correlation between the occurrences of two classes of events. It seems likely that the
same principles may account for this systematic error regardless of the subject
matter being observed. The term "illusory correlation" is proposed for such sys-
tematic errors in correlations reported by observers.
Variables affecting illusory correlation were studied using visually presented words
as stimuli. The findings indicate (a) that words which have a strong associative
connection are reported as correlated in their occurrence when not actually correlated
and (b) that illusory correlation also occurs between distinctive stimuli.

In an attempt to cope with his environ-
ment, every m a n seeks to observe, over a
period of time, predictable relationships
between the occurrences of various classes
of stimuli. H e often summarizes such ob-
servations as correlations between the
classes of events. For example, he m a y re-
port, "When there is a ring around the
moon there is likely to b e stormy weather,"
or "Catching a cold occurs more often when
sitting in a drafty room than in a room
without drafts."
Observational reports of this kind are
difficult to make with accuracy. Systematic
errors, as well as r a n d o m errors, frequently
appear, and one such systematic error is
the report of a correlation that is not war-
ranted b y the objective facts. Different ob-
1 The studies reported in this paper were sup-
ported by Research Grant MH-07987-01 from the
National Institute of Mental Health, United States
Public Health Service.
The author is indebted to Jean P. Chapman,
David Horton, and Glenn Miller for their sugges-
tions at various stages of the research, and to
Peter Lewinsohn for his criticism of the manu-
script.
151
servers often agree in their report of such
a correlation even though it is incorrect.
The term "illusory correlation" is pro-
posed for the report by observers of a cor-
relation between two classes of events
which, in reality, ( a ) are not correlated, or
( b ) are correlated to a lesser extent than
reported, or (c) are correlated in the op-
posite direction from that which is reported.
Thus defined, illusory correlation includes
p h e n o m e n a from a variety of areas. These
include the observational errors necessary
to sustain most superstitions and folklore
(e.g., the report that one's luck is better
when carrying a rabbit's foot), as well as
beliefs in magic (e.g., the report that it is
more likely to rain after a rain dance).
Prejudice is in part an illusory correlation
between race or religion and negatively
valued traits, while "halo effect" (Thorn-
dike, 1920) is a term usually used for a re-
port of an illusory correlation between posi-
tively valued, traits.
Illusory correlation also appears to in-
clude m a n y of the persistent reports of cor-
relations between the symptoms of patients
and their p e r f o r m a n c e on diagnostic tests.
 152 C~MAN
For example, clinicians w h o use the D r a w -
a-Person Test often report that patients
w h o show p a r a n o i d b e h a v i o r also show
m o r e elaboration of the eye in their d r a w -
ings ( M a c h o v e r , 1949). Yet, four separate
studies have failed to substantiate this ob-
servation b y a c o u n t i n g of the relevant
p h e n o m e n a ( F i s h e r a n d Fisher, 1950; Holz-
berg and Wexler, 1950; Reznikoff a n d
Nicholas, 1958; lqibler, 1957),
These examples indicate that there is
often a g r e e m e n t a m o n g observers in er-
roneously reporting the same correlations.
This suggests that some systematic princi-
ples are operating to distort the observa-
tional report. It seems likely that the same
principles m a y a c c o u n t for illusory corre-
lation regardless of differences in the sub-
iect m a t t e r b e i n g observed. O n e p r o b a b l e
genesis of such erroneous observations is
from the characteristics of the stimulus
events w h i c h are erroneously perceived as
correlated.
The p u r p o s e of this investigation is to
p r o d u c e illusory correlation in the labora-
tory and to study some of the stimulus
variables that influence it. Several pilot
studies indicated t h a t illusory correlations
could be effectively studied using a series
of pairs of words visually presented. These
preliminary results also suggested that il-
lusory correlation occurs b e t w e e n w o r d s
w h i c h are similar in m e a n i n g a n d associa-
tively related. O t h e r results indicated that
it occurs b e t w e e n words that are longer
t h a n other words in a list. T h e present in-
vestigation was designed to test the effects
on illusory correlation of ( a ) associative
strength, ( b ) distinctiveness of atypically
long words, ( c ) the length of the series of
w o r d pairs, a n d ( d ) the n u m b e r of succes-
sive testings on such series.
METHOD
Apparatus. The Ss were presented with three
series of pairs of words projected on a screen. At
each stimulus presentation, a single pair was
shown, one word on the left and one on the
right. The film was moved through tile projector
by an automatic transport connected with an au-
tomatic timer. The wo.rd pairs were changed ev-
ery 2 sec. The length of time required by the
apparatus for changing word pairs was measured
by a photoelectric cell with a timer and found
to be 0.1 sec. Therefore, the exposure time for
each word pair was 1.9 sec.
Materials. The words on the left- and on the
right-hand sides of the screen for the three series
were as follows: Series A on left-boat, lion, ba-
con, blossoms, and on right-tiger, eggs, note-
book; Series B on left-door, hat, knife, build-
ing, and on right-head, fork, magazine; Series C
on left-clock, bread, hand, envelope, and on
right-butter, foot, sidewalk. All 12 possible pair-
ings of the four left-hand words with the three
right-hand words appeared equally often.
As seen above, for 2 of the 12 word pairs of
each series the right-hand word was a strong as-
sociate to the left-hand word. The other 10
pairs had minimal associative connections. Also,
one word used on the left and one word used on
the right were three or four letters longer than
any of the other words. In addition, one word
used on the left in each series was a filler word
(boat, door, and clock) in that it neither was of
atypical length nor had a high-strength associate
on the right. The word pairs with high-strength
association were selected so as to be of low or
medium similarity of meaning. The 6 high asso-
ciative pairs and the 3 pairs of atypically long
words are shown in Table 1.
Strength of associative connection between
words was judged by a group of 33 students in
an undergraduate course. They were asked to
rate the word pairs on a six-point scale for the
strength of the tendency of the first word to call
to mind the second word, with "1" representing
highest associative strength. The six pairs of
words with high associative connection ranged
from 1.86 to 2.73.
Similarity of meaning was rated by a second
group of 36 students on a five-point scale, with a
rating of "1" representing highest similarity. The
mean similarity ratings of the six pairs of words
with high associative connection ranged from 3.42
to 4.61.
The 3 pairs of long words and the remaining
27 pairs were very low on both variables. Mean
rated similarity ranged from 4.89 to 5.00 with a
composite mean of 4.99 for these 30 pairs. Mean
rated strength of associative connection ranged
from 5.45 to 6.00 with a composite mean of 5.90.
Each of the three series was prepared in three
 ILLUSORY COtLRELATION
different lengths consisting of 48, 120, and 240
pairings.
Subjects. The Ss were 163 students from a
large introductory psychology course, divided into
three groups of 55, 49, and 59.
J~rocedure. The Ss were told before viewing
the word pairs that their task was to observe and
report how often each word was paired with each
other word.
Each group received three successive testings
within a single hour, and received in its three
testings all three series and all three lengths of
series. The order of presentation of the three se-
ries and the three lengths of series were counter-
balanced across the three groups of Ss. Thus,
each of the three series appeared equally often in
the three ordinal testings (i.e., first, second, or
third testing) and each was presented once for
each of the three lengths of series. Also, each of
the three lengths of series appeared once in each
of the three testings.
Measure of Illusory Correlation. After each se-
ries, the S was given a questionnaire on which
he was asked about the co-occurrence of the
words he had just observed. It contained four
items, each of which named one left-hand word
and all three right-hand words, and asked for an
estimate of the percentage of the total occur-
rences of the left-hand word in which it was
paired with each of the three right-hand words.
The correct co-occurrence in each case was, of
course, 33~%. It was predicted that for the six
high associative pairs and the three pairs of long
words, the reported co-occurrence would be
TABLE 1
MEAN I~EPORTED CO-OCCURRENCE AT EACH OF THE THREE TESTINGS FOR THE NINE PAIRS OF WORDS
FOR WHICH TLLUSORY CORRELATION WAS PREDICTED
First testing
Series A
lion-tiger 41.3
bacon-eggs 46.7
blossoms-notebook 47.0
Series B
bat-head 43.7
knife-fork 40. $
building-magazine 44.8
Series C
bread-butter 48.3
hand-foot 39.1
envelope-sidewalk 41.5
153
higher than this value. This excess over the cor-
rect value is the measure of illusory correlation.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Presence of Illusory Correlation. T a b l e 1
shows t h e m e a n r e p o r t e d c o - o c c u r r e n c e at
e a c h of t h e t h r e e testings for t h e n i n e w o r d
p a i r s for w h i c h i l l u s o r y c o r r e l a t i o n w a s p r e -
d i c t e d . As seen there, t h e t h r e e series w e r e
f a i r l y c o m p a r a b l e on t h e s e values.
F o r e a c h of t h e nine w o r d p a i r s for w h i c h
i l l u s o r y c o r r e l a t i o n w a s p r e d i c t e d , t h e re-
ported co-occurrence was compared with
t h e c o r r e c t v a l u e of 3 3 ~ % by m e a n s of a
t w o - t a i l e d , l a r g e - s a m p l e t-test, w i t h t h e
t h r e e testings pooled.
T h e d i f f e r e n c e W a s significant for e a c h
of t h e six p a i r s w i t h h i g h a s s o c i a t i v e con-
nection, z = 8.45 or larger, p < .001 in e a c h
case. T h e r e p o r t e d c o - o c c u r r e n c e of e a c h
of t h e o t h e r t w o r i g h t - h a n d w o r d s w i t h
e a c h o f t h e l e f t - h a n d a s s o c i a t e w o r d s was,
in e v e r y case, less t h a n t h e o b j e c t i v e l y cor-
r e c t v a l u e of 3 3 ~ % . This is n o t s u r p r i s i n g
b e c a u s e of t h e r e s t r i c t i o n t h a t t h e p e r c e n t -
a g e v a l u e s for t h e t h r e e r i g h t - h a n d w o r d s
t o t a l 100% in e a c h case. T h e m e a n co-oc-
c u r r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e l e f t - h a n d filler w o r d s
Second testing Third testing
37.4 33.8
37.0 35. S
45.9 43.6
36.3 37.9
34. ~ 35.8
43.6 39.0
40.8 86.4
89.3 34.
40.0 37.3
154 CHAPIVIAN
and the right-hand associative words was
32.5, close to the correct value of 831/~%.
Since several of these pairs of words with
high associative connection had low simi-
larity of meaning, these findings clearly
demonstrate that the occurrence of il-
lusory correlation on the basis of associa-
tive connection is not dependent on simi-
larity. It would be difficult to investigate
the converse possibility that illusory corre-
lation occurs in response to semantic simi-
larity independent of associative connec-
tion, because high similarity of meaning is
usually accompanied by strong association
(Bastian, 1961; Haagen, 1949).
For each of the three pairs of atypically
long words, the mean reported co-occur-
rence was also higher than the correct value
of 33~ %, z = 5.40 or larger, p < .001 in
each case. This is interpreted as occurring
on the basis of the distinctiveness of the
long words.
However, one might suspect that the
high reported co-occurrence of the pair of
atypically long words in each series arose
as the result of an erroneous observation
that the long word on the right-hand side
occurred more often than the other two
right-hand words, regardless of which word
appeared on the left. This would result if
distinctive stimuli are seen as occurring
more often than nondistinctive stimuli.
This possibility was investigated by ex-
amining the reported co-occurrence of the
long right-hand word in each series with
the left-hand filler word. The mean values,
with the three testings pooled, were "boat-
notebook," 82.6; "door-magazine," 35.9; and
"clock-sidewalk," 36.7. These values dif-
fered significantly from 3 3 ~ % for "door-
magazine," z = 2 . 3 8 , p < .05, and for
"clock-sidewalk," z = 2.78, p < .01. This
indicates that the erroneously high reported
co-occurrence of the pairs of long words
may have been inflated by an error of see-
ing each long right-hand word as having a
heighter/ed frequency. In order to deter-
mine whether the long pairs showed il-
lusory correlation beyond that which might
be attributed to such an effect, the re-
ported co-occurrence of each of the long
right-hand words with the long left-hand
word was compared with the reported co-
occurrence of the long right-hand word
with the left-hand filler word, by means of
a direct difference t-test. It was found that
the reported co-occurrence was significantly
greater for "blossoms-notebook" than for
"boat-notebook," z = 8.25, p < .001, was
greater for '%uilding-magazine" than for
"door-magazine," z -- 4.26, p < .001, and
tended to be greater for "envelope-side-
walk" than for "clock-sidewalk," z = 1.85,
p < .07. These results indicate that illusory
correlation occurred for the pairs of long
words to a degree beyond that which
might be attributed to the Ss' attributing
excessive frequency to each alone.
Effect o~ Length of Series. There was a
small but significant variation in illusory
correlation for the high-associate pairs be-
tween the three lengths of series. The mean
reported co-occurrence for the three lengths
of series were 88.35 (short), 40.16 (me-
dium), and 37.09 (long). The three values
differed significantly, F(2, 324)=3.83,
p < .05. For the pairs of long words, the
values were 42.91 (short), 41.79 (medium)
and 42.89 (long), and they did not differ
significantly, F < 1.
Effect of Successive Testings. As seen in
Table 1, the amount of illusory correlation
declined across successive testings. Com-
bining word pairs from the three series,
the mean reported co-occurrence for the
high-associate pairs was found to have
dropped from the first testing (42.80) to
the second (37.66) and from the second
to the third testing (35.64). This decline
was significant, F(2, 324) -- 17.65, p < .01.
Similarly, the mean reported co-occur-
rence of the long words declined across
 ILLUSORY CORRELATION
successively presented series. The values
here for the first, second and third testings
were 44.35, 43.09, and 40.15, respectively,
F(2, 324) -- 3.56, p < .05. The reason for
these declines is unknown. However, they
may indicate that some Ss "caught on" to
the nature of the experiment as they pro-
gressed through the three series, or they
may be attributable to fatigue and lowered
attention. It is also possible that these de-
clines represent a genuine improvement in
handling the task as a function of practice.
Conclusions. Associative connection be-
tween two events and the distinctiveness
of the events were effective in producing
illusory correlation. Therefore it seems
likely that these two variables are also in-
fluential in the development of illusory cor-
relations in situations outside the labora-
tory. It seems particularly important for
clinical psychologists to investigate the role
that these variables may play in the fre-
quently reported observations of discon-
firmed correlations between patients' symp-
toms and performance on diagnostic tests.
155
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