QUESTION:

A) GIVEN THE CELL PHONE SUBSCRIPTION DATA BELOW, FIT THE "S" CURVE (LOGISTIC REGRESSION) FUNCTI

USE SOLVER TO FIND THE CONSTANTS: A, B, L

AS PER USUAL LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION, MINIMIZE SUM OF SQUARED ERROR, SUM( Y(I) - YHAT(I) ) ^2

ADD TO THE GRAPHIC ALL MODEL FORECASTS

B) COMPLETE THE ONE-WAY DATATABLE TO SHOW WHEREIN THE POINT OF INFLECTION OCCURS.

THAT IS, FOR WHAT TIME,T, DOES THE SUBSCRIPTION CURVE CHANGE FROM A CONVEX (SLOPE INCREASES)

TO CONCAVE (SLOPE DECREASES).

ANSWER:

LOGISTIC FUNCTION: FORECAST= L / (1 + A*EXP(-B*T) )

WHERE:

L = LIMIT AS TIME, T = YEAR NUMBER ---> ∞

L, A, B ARE ESTIMATED CONSTANTS

US CELL PHONE SUBSRIPTION DATA:

 CELL_PHONES
YEAR_NUMBER Year IN 000'S
1 1985 340
2 1986 681
3 1987 1,230
4 1988 2,069
5 1989 3,508
6 1990 5,283
7 1991 7,557
8 1992 11,032
9 1993 16,009
10 1994 24,134
11 1995 33,758
12 1996 44,042
13 1997 55,312
14 1998 69,209
15 1999 86,047
16 2000 109,478
17 2001 128,374
18 2002 140,766
19 2003 158,721
20 2004 182,140
21 2005 207,896
22 2006 233,000
24 2008 262,700
25 2009 276,610
26 2010 300,520
FORECAST YEAR # 30 2014 327,177

C
U.S. Cell Phones Per 100 People
e
l
l 100

P 80
h
o 60
n
e 40
s
20
P
e 0
r 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 20

1 Year
0
0

p
e
o
p
l
e
FINDING THE POINT OF INFLECTION

YEAR YEAR_NUMBER
1994.00 10.00
1994.25 10.25
1994.50 10.50
1994.75 10.75
1995.00 11.00
1995.25 11.25
1995.50 11.50
1995.75 11.75
1996.00 12.00
1996.25 12.25
1996.50 12.50
1996.75 12.75
1997.00 13.00
1997.25 13.25
1997.50 13.50
1997.75 13.75
1998.00 14.00
1998.25 14.25
1998.50 14.50
1998.75 14.75
1999.00 15.00
1999.25 15.25
1999.50 15.50
1999.75 15.75
2000.00 16.00
2000.25 16.25
2000.50 16.50
2000.75 16.75
2001.00 17.00
2001.25 17.25
2001.50 17.50
2001.75 17.75
2002.00 18.00
2002.25 18.25
2002.50 18.50
2002.75 18.75
2003.00 19.00
2003.25 19.25
2003.50 19.50
2003.75 19.75
2004.00 20.00
2004.25 20.25
2004.50 20.50
2004.75 20.75
2005.00 21.00
2005.25 21.25
2005.50 21.50
2005.75 21.75
2006.00 22.00
2006.25 22.25
2006.50 22.50
2006.75 22.75
2007.00 23.00
2007.25 23.25
2007.50 23.50
2007.75 23.75
2008.00 24.00
2008.25 24.25
2008.50 24.50
2008.75 24.75
2009.00 25.00
2009.25 25.25
2009.50 25.50
2009.75 25.75
2010.00 26.00
STIC REGRESSION) FUNCTION

SUM( Y(I) - YHAT(I) ) ^2

TION OCCURS.

NVEX (SLOPE INCREASES)

L a
 ? ?
US_POULATION
IN MILLIONS CELL PHONES PER 100 LOGISTIC FCST ABS ERROR
238 0.143 ? ?
240 0.284 ? ?
242 0.508 ? ?
244 0.848 ? ?
247 1.420 ? ?
250 2.113 ? ?
253 2.987 ? ?
257 4.293 ? ?
260 6.157 ? ?
263 9.176 ? ?
266 12.691 ? ?
269 16.372 ? ?
273 20.261 ? ?
276 25.076 ? ?
279 30.841 ? ?
282 38.822 ? ?
285 45.044 ? ?
288 48.877 ? ?
290 54.731 ? ?
293 62.164 ? ?
296 70.235 ? ?
298 78.188 ? ?
304 86.414 ? ?
307 90.101 ? ?
308 97.571 ? ?
317 103.210 ? ?

AVERAGE ERROR= ?
eople

Column G

year=
2007 2010 2013
one-way datatable
Pearl Forecast DIFF=
Y(t)-Y(T-1) DIFF(DIFF)
?
? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ? THEORY:
? ? ? POINT OF INFLECTION:
? ? ? T=
? ? ? Y=
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
? ? ?
 MINIMIZE:

b SUM OF SQ ERROR
 ? ?

< --- FCST ERROR

?
?