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Changing Cells:
COGS/REV 75.00% 74.00% 76.00%
TAX RATE 33.00% 20.00% 33.00%
Result Cells:
2013E ROA= 8.2% 11.3% 6.8%
2014E ROA= 8.3% 11.1% 6.9%
2015E ROA= 8.2% 10.7% 6.9%
2016E ROA= 8.0% 10.3% 6.8%
2017E ROA= 7.8% 9.8% 6.7%
2013E ROE= 21.7% 28.2% 18.5%
ROA
2014E ROE= 21.3% 25.7% 18.8%
2015E ROE= 20.5% 23.3% 18.7%
2016E ROE= 19.4% 21.0% 18.3%
2017E ROE= 18.2% 19.0% 17.6%
2013E EBITDA MARGIN 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
2014E EBITDA MARGIN 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
2015E EBITDA MARGIN 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
2016E EBITDA MARGIN 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
2017E EBITDA MARGIN 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
2013E EPS GROWTH 8.1% 53.3% -12.0%
2014E EPS GROWTH 8.1% 8.7% 7.6%
2015E EPS GROWTH 6.8% 7.4% 6.3%
2016E EPS GROWTH 5.5% 6.2% 4.9%
2017E EPS GROWTH 4.2% 5.0% 3.5%
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
ROA FORECAST
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
ROA
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
CURRENT OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
Consolidated Income Statements `
(in US$ millions except per share amounts) Actuals Estimates
Period Ending January 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Revenue
NOMINAL:
10YRS
Net Sales 405,132.0 418,952.0 443,854.0 US GDP: PRIOR 2013E - 2017E "WHAT IF"
% Growth 3.4% 5.9% GROWTH= 3.98% SCENARIO MANAGER---
Membership and Other Income 2,953.0 2,897.0 3,096.0 STD.DEV.= 2.66%
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 3.4% 6.0% -1.3% 2.8% -0.5% 3.3% 4.4% COGS_PCT_REV 75.00%
Gross profit 103,979.0 106,903.0 111,823.0 110,291.9 113,397.1 112,808.0 116,577.3 121,762.9
Gross profit margin (%) 25.5% 25.3% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
Operating expenses
Selling, general and administrative 72,820.0 73,720.0 77,135.0 76,322.0 78,470.8 78,063.1 80,671.5 84,260.0 COGS_PCT_REV 74.00%
SG&A as a % of revenue 17.8% 17.5% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% TAX_RATE 20.00%
Depreciation and amortization 7,157.0 7,641.0 8,130.0 8,552.5 9,096.9 9,638.3 10,197.9 10,782.4 PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
Income tax expense 7,156.0 7,579.0 7,944.0 7,665.9 7,819.3 7,570.6 7,769.8 8,133.4 ROE= 22.1%
Tax rate (%) 32.4% 32.2% 32.6% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% EBITDA MARGIN= 7.7%
Net Income (Adjusted) 14,962.0 15,959.0 16,454.0 15,564.2 15,875.5 15,370.7 15,775.1 21,444.5 EPS Y/Y GROWTH= 40.5%
Non-recurring events
Discontinued operations (79.0) 1,034.0 (67.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total non-recurring events (79.0) 1,034.0 (67.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income (After non-recurring events) 14,883.0 16,993.0 16,387.0 15,564.2 15,875.5 15,370.7 15,775.1 21,444.5
Distributions
Income attributable to non-controlling inter (513.0) (604.0) (688.0) (653.7) (666.8) (645.6) (662.6) (900.7)
Non-controlling interests % of Net Inc 3.4% 3.6% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Net Income (as Reported) 14,370.0 16,389.0 15,699.0 14,910.5 15,208.7 14,725.1 15,112.5 20,543.8
30% 9.3% 22.1% 7.7% 10.5% ARE INCREASED WHEN WMT EFFECTIVE
2017E TAX RATE = 27% 9.3% 22.1% 7.7% 18.5% TAX RATE IS DECREASED.
24% 9.3% 22.1% 7.7% 23.7% EPS Y/Y GROWTH IS MOST SENSITIVE.
COGS / REV=
COGS / REV=
30% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CAN ONLY BE OFFSET BY A DECREASE IN TAX RATE OF AT LEAST 50%.
24% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A 1% DECREASE IN COGS/REV + A TAX DECREASE TO SOME 20% WILL INCREASE EPS GROWTH Y/Y BY 42% .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
33.00%
20.00%
33.00%
Period Ending January 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cash flows from operating activities Total Cash flows from projected operating activities (CFO)
Net income 14,883.0 16,993.0 16,387.0 15,564.2 15,875.5 15,370.7 15,775.1 21,444.5 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Loss (income) from discontinued operations 79.0 (1,034.0) 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $ 24,255 $ 25,431 $ 26,490 $ 26,021 $ 27,098 $ 33,263
Depreciation and amortization 7,157.0 7,641.0 8,130.0 8,552.5 9,096.9 9,638.3 10,197.9 10,782.4
Deferred income taxes (504.0) 651.0 1,050.0 707.7 982.7 753.2 542.6 347.4 CAGR % = 6.52%
Other Operating Activities 318.0 1,087.0 398.0 318.0 318.0 318.0 318.0 318.0
Changes in accounts receivable (297.0) (733.0) (796.0) 545.0 (151.8) 28.8 (184.3) (253.5)
Changes in inventory 2,213.0 (3,205.0) (3,727.0) 2,663.3 (1,071.3) 203.3 (1,300.4) (2,909.3)
Changes in prepaid expenses and other 0.0 0.0 0.0 (604.7) (64.5) 12.2 (78.3) (107.7)
Changes in accounts payable 1,052.0 2,676.0 2,687.0 (1,866.1) 978.2 (185.6) 1,187.3 2,656.3
Changes in accrued liabilities 1,348.0 (433.0) 59.0 78.5 513.3 (97.4) 623.1 857.2
Changes in accrued income taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 (527.3) 12.7 (20.7) 16.5 30.2
Net changes in operating working capital 4,316.0 (1,695.0) (1,777.0) 288.7 216.6 (59.3) 264.0 370.7
Total cash flows from operating activities 26,249.0 23,643.0 24,255.0 25,431.1 26,489.7 26,020.8 27,097.6 33,262.9
Payments for property and equipment (CAPEX) (12,184.0) (12,699.0) (13,510.0) (13,235.0) (13,607.7) (13,537.0) (13,989.3) (14,611.6)
Capex as a % of Revenue 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Proceeds from disposal of property and equipment 1,002.0 489.0 580.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investments and business acquisitions, net of cash acquired 0.0 (202.0) (3,548.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other investing activities (438.0) 219.0 (131.0) (438.0) 219.0 (131.0) (438.0) 219.0
Total cash from investing activities (11,620.0) (12,193.0) (16,609.0) (13,673.0) (13,388.7) (13,668.0) (14,427.3) (14,392.6)
Short-term borrowings (repayments) (1,033.0) 503.0 3,019.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long-term borrowings (repayments) (487.0) 7,316.0 466.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long term debt due within one year 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital lease obligations due within one year 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends paid (4,217.0) (4,437.0) (5,048.0) (5,344.7) (5,187.3) (5,029.9) (4,872.5) (4,715.1)
Purchase of common stock [treasury stock] (7,276.0) (14,776.0) (6,298.0) (7,308.2) (7,308.2) (7,308.2) (7,308.2) (7,308.2)
Purchase of redeemable noncontrolling interest (436.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Lease Obligations (346.0) (363.0) (355.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total cash from financing activities (14,191.0) (12,028.0) (8,458.0) (12,894.9) (12,737.5) (12,580.1) (12,422.6) (12,265.2)
Effect of Exchange Rate on Cash 194.0 66.0 (33.0) 194.0 66.0 (33.0) 194.0 66.0
Total change in cash and cash equivalents 632.0 (512.0) (845.0) (942.8) 429.5 (260.2) 441.7 6,671.2
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA:
Cash flow before debt paydown (942.8) 429.5 (260.2) 441.7 6,671.2
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 7,395.0 6,550.0 5,607.2 6,036.7 5,776.5 6,218.2 12,889.4
Receivables, net 5,089.0 5,937.0 5,392.0 5,543.9 5,515.1 5,699.3 5,952.9
Inventories 36,437.0 40,714.0 38,050.7 39,122.0 38,918.8 40,219.2 42,008.2
Prepaid expenses and other 2,960.0 1,685.0 2,289.7 2,354.1 2,341.9 2,420.1 2,527.8
Other current assets (discontinued operations) 131.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0
Total current assets 52,012.0 54,975.0 51,428.6 53,145.7 52,641.2 54,645.8 63,467.2
Property, plant and equipment, net 107,878.0 112,324.0 117,006.5 121,517.3 125,415.9 129,207.3 133,036.5
Goodwill 16,763.0 20,651.0 20,651.0 20,651.0 20,651.0 20,651.0 20,651.0
Other assets and deferred charges 4,129.0 5,456.0 5,576.0 5,039.0 4,852.0 4,972.0 4,435.0
Total assets 180,782.0 193,406.0 194,662.1 200,353.0 203,560.2 209,476.1 221,589.7
Liabilities
Current liabilities:
Short-term borrowings 1,031.0 4,047.0 4,047.0 4,047.0 4,047.0 4,047.0 4,047.0
Accounts payable 33,676.0 36,608.0 34,741.9 35,720.1 35,534.5 36,721.8 39,378.1
Accrued liabilities 18,701.0 18,154.0 18,232.5 18,745.8 18,648.4 19,271.5 20,128.8
Accrued income taxes 157.0 1,164.0 636.7 649.4 628.8 645.3 675.5
Long term debt due within one year 4,655.0 1,975.0 1,975.0 1,975.0 1,975.0 1,975.0 1,975.0
Obligations under capital leases due within one year 336.0 326.0 326.0 326.0 326.0 326.0 326.0
Current liabilities of discontinued operations 47.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0
Total current liabilities 58,603.0 62,300.0 59,985.1 61,489.3 61,185.7 63,012.7 66,556.4
Long-term debt 40,692.0 44,070.0 44,070.0 44,070.0 44,070.0 44,070.0 44,070.0
Long-term obligations under capital leases 3,150.0 3,009.0 3,009.0 3,009.0 3,009.0 3,009.0 3,009.0
Deferred income taxes and other 6,682.0 7,862.0 8,569.7 9,552.4 10,305.5 10,848.1 11,195.5
Redeemable noncontrolling interest 408.0 404.0 404.0 404.0 404.0 404.0 404.0
Total liabilities 109,535.0 117,645.0 116,037.8 118,524.7 118,974.2 121,343.8 125,234.9
Shareholders' equity
Common stock par value + additional paid-in-capital 3,929.0 4,034.0 4,034.0 4,034.0 4,034.0 4,034.0 4,034.0
Total liabilities & equity 180,782.0 193,406.0 194,662.1 200,353.0 203,560.2 209,476.1 222,612.5
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA:
Balance? (Y/N) Y Y Y Y Y Y N
Period Ending January 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Property, plant & equipment (beg. of year) 112,324.0
Capital expenditures (beg. of year) 13,235.0 13,607.7 13,537.0 13,989.3 14,611.6
Accelerated depreciation
Existing PP&E 9,828.4 10,255.2 9,221.8 8,300.7 7,469.5
2013 CAPEX 868.6 926.5 857.9 793.6 734.0
2014 CAPEX 893.1 952.5 882.0 815.9
2015 CAPEX 888.4 947.6 877.5
2016 CAPEX 918.1 979.2
2017 CAPEX 959.0
Total tax depreciation 10,697.0 12,074.7 11,920.7 11,842.1 11,835.1
Current assets
Receivables, net 5,089.0 5,937.0 5,392.0 5,543.9 5,515.1 5,699.3 5,952.9
Days receivable: (AR/REV)*360 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
Inventories 36,437.0 40,714.0 38,050.7 39,122.0 38,918.8 40,219.2 43,128.4
Inventory turnover days: (INV/COGS)*360 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4
Prepaid expenses and other 2,960.0 1,685.0 2,289.7 2,354.1 2,341.9 2,420.1 2,527.8
Days prepaid: (PREPAID/SG&A)*360 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8
Total current assets 44,486.0 48,336.0 45,732.4 47,020.0 46,775.7 48,338.6 51,609.1
Current liabilities
Accounts payable 33,676.0 36,608.0 34,741.9 35,720.1 35,534.5 36,721.8 39,378.1
Days payable:(AP/COGS)*360 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8
Accrued liabilities 18,701.0 18,154.0 18,232.5 18,745.8 18,648.4 19,271.5 20,128.8
Days payable: (AL/SG&A)*360 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0
Accrued taxes 157.0 1,164.0 636.7 649.4 628.8 645.3 675.5
Days Payable: (ACCRUED_TAX / INC_TAX_EXP)*360 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Total current liabilities 52,534.0 55,926.0 53,611.1 55,115.3 54,811.7 56,638.7 60,182.4
Total operating working capital (8,048.0) (7,590.0) (7,878.7) (8,095.3) (8,036.0) (8,300.0) (8,573.3)
Change in total operating working capital 288.7 216.6 (59.3) 264.0 273.3
Period Ending January 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cash at the end of the year = CASH_BEG+CASH_AVAIL+TOTAL ISSUANCES 6,550.0 7,708.7 8,138.3 7,878.1 8,319.8 14,990.9
Interest income = AVG(CASH_BEG+CASH_END)*INTEREST RATE 178.2 230.8 200.2 202.5 291.4