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Treatment of Experimental Data 85-222 Winter 2005


Faculty of Engineering
University of Windsor
Midterm Exam I Solution
Friday, February 11, 11:30 am – 1:30 pm, Ambassador Auditorium

Instructor: Mohammed Fazle Baki


Aids Permitted: Calculator, straightedge, and text (no notes).
Time available: 2 hour
Instructions:
 This solution has 9 pages.
 Please be sure to put your name and student ID on each odd-numbered page.
 State answers upto four decimal places.
 Show your work.

Grading:

Question Marks:

1 /10

2 /7

3 /9

4 /5

5 /8

6 /5

7 /4

8 /8

9 /9

Total: /65
Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

Question 1: (10 points) Circle the most appropriate answer

1.1 Descriptive statistics involves data


a. collection
b. organizing or summarizing
c. presentation
d. all of the above

1.2 Nominal data


a. allow all arithmetic operations
b. convey ranking
c. represents arbitrary codes
d. represents quantity or amounts of something such as length, weight, etc.

1.3 Which of the following is an advantage of sampling?


a. Accuracy of information
b. Cost of data collection
c. Both
d. None

1.4 A bar chart


a. emphasizes trend, if any
b. emphasizes relative values e.g., frequencies
c. can show order of categories
d. b and c

1.5 The following is the most suitable measure of central tendency for ranked data
a. Mean
b. Median
c. Mode
d. b and c

1.6 Defining sample variance as the mean squared deviation from the sample mean tends to
a. Underestimate the population variance
b. Overestimate the population variance
c. Accurately estimate the population variance
d. b and c

1.7 For positively skewed data


a. mean > median
b. mean = median
c. mean < median
d. there are usually two modes

1.8 If A and B are two mutually exclusive events


a. P(A)+P(B) = 1
b. P(A and B) = P(A)×P(B)
c. P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)
d. P(A|B) = P(A)

1.9 The reliability increases

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

a. if the components are in parallel and the number of components increases


b. if the components are in series and the number of components increases
c. if the components are in parallel and the number of components decreases
d. b and c

1.10 An example of a continuous random variable is the one that assumes value of
a. number of defective parts in a production lot
b. time between two customers arriving in a bank
c. number of accidents per month
d. b and c

Question 2: (7 points) Descriptive statistics


A major airline wanted some information on those enrolled in their “frequent flyer” program. A
sample of 20 members resulted in the following number of miles flown, to the nearest 1000
miles, by each participant.
21 19 23 22 20 19 17 22 14 20

19 11 16 16 13 18 12 15 23 24
a. (2 points) Construct a frequency distribution table for the data, using five class intervals and the
value 10 as the lower limit for the first class.
largest number - smallest number Class
Class width 
Number of classes Interval Frequency
24  10 10 to 13 2
  2.8  3
5 13 to 16 3
16 to 19 4
19 to 22 6
22 to 25 5
b. (4 points) Construct a relative frequency histogram for the data, using five class intervals and the
value 10 as the lower limit for the first class.

Class Relative
Interval Frequency Frequency
10 to 13 2 0.10
13 to 16 3 0.15
16 to 19 4 0.20
19 to 22 6 0.30
22 to 25 5 0.25

c. (1 point) Comment if the data is symmetric, positively skewed, or negatively skewed. Justify your
answer in brief.
The data is negatively skewed. The mean is less than the median. There are more larger
numbers than smaller numbers.

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

Question 3: (9 points) Central location and box plot


The following are numbers of twists that were required to break 11 forged alloy bars: 24, 39, 48, 26,
35, 38, 54, 23, 34, 29, and 37. Find:
a. (1 point) Mean
n

x i
24  39  48  26  35  38  54  23  34  29  37
X i 1

n 11
387

11
=35.1818

b. (2 point) The 30th percentile


First, sort the data: 23, 24, 26, 29, 34, 35, 37, 38, 39, 48, 54
d  0.30, k   n  1 d  11  1 0.30  3.6, Hence, k  3
Q0.30  xk    n  1 d  k  xk 1  xk   x3   3.6  3  x4  x3   26   3.6  3  29  26  27.8

c. (3 points) The first, second and third quartiles.


The 1st quartile: d  0.25, k   n  1 d  11  1 0.25  3, whole number, so Q0.25  xk  x3  26
The 2nd quartile: d  0.50, k   n  1 d  11  1 0.50  6, whole number, so Q0.50  xk  x6  35
The 3rd quartile: d  0.75, k   n  1 d  11  1 0.75  9, whole number, so Q0.75  xk  x9  39

d. (3 points) Construct a box plot.

20 30 40 50 60
N u m b e r o f T w is t s

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

Question 4: (5 points) Variation


A. A. Michelson (1852-1931) made many series of measurements of the speed of light. Using a
revolving mirror technique, he obtained
12, 30, 30, 27, 30, 39, 18, 27, 48, 24, 18
for the differences (velocity of light in air) – (299,700) km/s. Find:
a. (1 point) Range
Range = Largest value – smallest value = 48 –12 = 36
b. (3 points) Variance
12  30  30  27  30  39  18  27  48  24  18 303
X    27.5454
11 11

X  X 
n
2
i
s  i1
2

n 1
1 12  27.5454  3 30  27.5454  2 27  27.5454   39  27.5454 
2 2 2 2

  
11  1  218  27.5454 2   48  27.5454 2   24  27.5454 2 
1004.7272

10
 100.4727
Marking note: The sample variance must be computed for experimental data. It’s incorrect to
compute population variance. 1 point is taken off if denominator shows n instead of n  1.

c. (1 point) Standard deviation


s s 2  100.4727  10.0236

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

Question 5: (8 points) Probability laws


Consider the following information about 500 machine parts which are inspected before shipping:
The machine part is The machine part is Total
improperly assembled properly assembled
(A) (AC)
The machine part
contains one or more
defective components 10 5 15

(D)
The machine part
contains no defective
component 20 465 485

(DC)
Total 30 470 500
Find:
a. (2 points) P  A
30
P  A   0.06
500
b. (2 points) P  D C 

P D C  
485
 0.97
500
c. (2 points) P A or D 
10  5  20 35
P ( A or D)    0.07
500 500
30 15 10
Alternately, P ( A or D)  P A  P  D   P A and D      0.07
500 500 500
Marking note: Since, there are some cases (10) when the events A and D occur
simultaneously, the events are not mutually exclusive. If addition law is used to solve the
problem, the general addition law must be used. It’s incorrect to use the addition for mutually
exclusive events. So, 1 point is taken off for missing  P  A and D  .
d. (2 points) P A | D 
10 2
P A | D     0.6667
15 3
Alternately,
10
P A and D  500 10 2
P A | D       0.6667
P D  15 15 3
500
Question 6: (5 points) Probability trees

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

The Olive Construction Co. is determining whether it should submit a bid for the construction of a
new shopping center. In the past, Olive’s main competitor, Base Construction Co., has submitted
bids 60% of the time. If Base Construction Co. does not bid on a job, the probability that the Olive
Construction Co. will get the job is 0.80; if Base Construction Co. does bid on a job, the probability
that the Olive Construction Co. will get the job is 0.25.
a. (4 points) Construct a probability tree showing all the probabilities, simple events and joint
probabilities. S im p le J o in t
S ta g e 1 S ta g e 2 P r o b a b ilitie s
Define the following events: E v e n ts

B : Base construction bids on the job O BO P (B O )= ( 0 .6 )( 0 .2 5 )= 0 .1 5


= 0 .2 5
O : Olive Construction gets the job B P ( O |B )
6
0. O c c
= P ( O c|B BO P ( B O c )= ( 0 .6 )( 0 .7 5 )= 0 .4 5
B) )= 0 .7 5
P(

P(
B c )= 0 .5 0
O B cO P (B c O )= (0 .4 )(0 .8 0 )= 0 .3 2
c
)=
0. B c P ( O |B
40
c
P ( O c|B c O B cO c
P (B c O c )= (0 .4 )(0 .2 0 )= 0 .0 8
)= 0 .5 0

b. (1 point) What is the probability that the Olive Construction Co. will get the job?
  
P Olive gets job   P BO or B C O  P BO  P B C O  0.15  0.32  0.47 

Question 7: (4 points) Reliability


Compute the reliability of the following system:

0 .8 0 0 .8 5

0 .9 0 0 .6 0 0 .6 0 0 .9 5

0 .5 0 0 .7 5
Rsystem
 0.901  1  0.801  0.60  0.60 1  0.50 1  1  0.851  0.75  0.95
 0.901  1  0.801  0.36 1  0.50  1  1  0.851  0.75  0.95
 0.901  0.20  0.64  0.501  0.15  0.25 0.95
 0.90  0.936  0.9625  0.95
 0.77027

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

Question 8: (8 points) Expected value and variance


Let X be a random variable with the following probability distribution:
x -10 -5 0 5 10
p(x) 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.20 0.30 0.25
Compute
a. (2 points) E(X)
  E  X    xp x     10 0.10    5 0.15   0  0.20   5 0.30  10 0.25  2.25

b. (2 points) Var(X)
Var(X)
  x    p x  2

   10  2.25 0.10    5  2.25 0.15   0  2.25 0.20   5  2.25 0.30  10  2.25 0.25
2 2 2 2 2

 15.00625  7.8844  1.0125  2.2688  15.015625


 41.1876

Alternately, Var(X) = E  X 2    2
 
E X 2   x 2 p  x     10   0.10    5  0.15   0   0.20    5  0.30  10  0.25  46.25
2 2 2 2 2

Var(X) = E  X 2    2  46.2500   2.25 2  46.2500  5.0625  41.1875


c. (1 point) E(3X+2)
E  3 X  2  3E  X   2  3 2.25  2  8.75

d. (1 point) Var(3X+2)
Var(3X+2) =  3 2 Var  X   9 41.1876   370.6884
e. (2 points) E(3X2+4)
   
E 3 X 2  4  3E X 2  4  3 46.25  4  142.7503
Alternately,

E 3X 2  4 
 3E X  2
4

 3 Var  X    2  4 

 3 41.1876   2.25
2
4
 3 46.2501  4
 138.7503  4
 142.7503

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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________

Question 9: (9 points) Binomial distribution


A study of 5-year trends in the logistics information systems of industries found that the greatest
computerization advances were in transportation (Industrial Engineering, July 1990). Currently, 40%
of all industries contain shipping open order files in their computerized data base. In a random
sample of 10 industries, let y equal the number that include shipping open order files in their
computerized data base. Note that the probability distribution of y can be modelled using the
binomial distribution. Find:
a. (3 points) P  y  1 using Binomial distribution formula
n  10,   0.40

P  y  1  b1; n,    b1;10,0.4   C110  0.40 1  0.40 


1 101

10!
  0.40 1  0.60 9
1! 10  1!
 10 0.40 0.01
 0.0403
b. (3 points) P  y  1 using Binomial distribution formula
P  y  1  B 1; n,    b 0; n,    b1; n,    b 0;10,0.4   0.0403  C010  0.40  1  0.40
0 100
 0.0403


10!
 0.40 0  0.60 10  0.0403  10! 1 0.60 10  0.0403
0! 10  0 ! 110!
 11 0.0060  0.0403
 0.0463
c. (1 point) P y  7  using Binomial distribution table
P  y  7  = 0.9877 from Table A, Appendinx A

d. (1 point) P y  5 using Binomial distribution table


P y  5  1  P y  4  1  0.6331 (from Table A, Appendinx A)
 0.3669
e. (1 point) P 5  y  7  using Binomial distribution table
P 5  y  7   P y  7   P y  4  0.9877  0.6331 (from Table A, Appendinx A)
 0.3546