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Southwestern University

1. Develop a network drawing for Hill Construction and


determine the critical path. How long is the project expected
to take?
Ans:

Optimistic Pessimistic (b Expected Varianc


Activity (a) Most Likely (m) ) Time e
A 20 30 40 30 11.11
B 20 65 80 60 100.00
C 50 60 100 65 69.44
D 30 50 100 55 136.11
E 25 30 35 30 2.78
F 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00
G 25 30 35 30 2.78
H 10 20 30 20 11.11
I 20 25 60 30 44.44
J 8 10 12 10 0.44
K 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00
L 20 25 60 30 44.44

Project Network Diagram:

xpected time ACDGHIL (on critical path) = A + C + D + G + H + I +


L
= 260 days

What is the probability of finishing in 270 days?


2.
Ans:
Project Variance = (total variances of activities on critical path)
= 11.11 + 69.44 + 136.11 + 2.78 + 11.11 + 44.44 + 44.44= 319.43
days
Project Standard Deviation = SQRT (319.43) = 17.87 days
Z = = (270 – 260) / 17.87= 0.56
As per Normal Table in Appendix 1, for Z value of 0.56, the
probability of 0.71226. There is a 71.23% chance that the
project will finish on 270 days.
3. If it is necessary to crash to 250 or 240 days, how would Hill
do so, and at what costs? As noted in the case, assume the
optimistic time estimates can be used as crash times.
Ans:
We select the activity on the critical path with the smallest
crash cost/day which is activity A. Thus, we can reduce the total
project completion date by 10 days to finish the project in 250
days.
Reduced cost for 10 Days for activity A would be $ 1500 * 10 =
$ 15000
To finish the project in 240 days, another 10 days need to be
crashed. This reduction can be achieved by least cost along the
critical path by reducing activity H by 10 days for an additional
cost of $20,000. This solution is summarized in the following
table:
Day Reduced Cost
Activity s ($)
A 10 15000
H 10 20000

Total 20 35000
3.14 Kelle Carpet and Trim install carpet in commercial offices.
Peter Kelle has been very concerned with the amount of time it
took to complete several recent jobs. Some of his workers are
very unreliable. A list of activities and their optimistic
completing time, the most likely completion time, and the
pessimistic completion time (all in days) for a new contract are
given in the following table:

Activity Time Immediate


(days) predecesso
r(s)
a m b
A 3 6 8 -
B 2 4 4 -
C 1 2 3 -
D 6 7 8 C
E 2 4 6 B, D
F 6 10 14 A, E
G 1 2 4 A, E3.14
Kelle
Carpet and
Trim install
carpet in
commercial
offices.
Peter Kelle
has been
very
concerned
with the
amount of
time it took
to
complete
several
recent
jobs. Some
of his
workers
are very
unreliable.
A list of
activities
and their
optimistic
completing
time, the
most likely
completion
time, and
the
pessimistic
completion
time (all in
days) for a
new
contract
are given in
the
following
table:

Activity Time Immediate


(days) predecesso
r(s)
a m b
A 3 6 8 -
B 2 4 4 -
C 1 2 3 -
D 6 7 8 C
E 2 4 6 B, D
F 6 10 14 A, E
G 1 2 4 A, E
H 3 6 9 F
I 10 11 12 G
J 14 16 20 C
K 2 8 10 H, I
a)
Determine
the
expected
completion
time and
variance
for critical
activity.

Expected
completion
time for
Activity J =
t= (14 +
4(16) +
20)/6 =
16.333
days

Variance
for Activity
J= ((20-
14)/6)^2)=
1.0

b)
Determine
the total
project
completion
time and
the critical
path for
the project

G
D

J
Start

E
B
K

I
F
C

c)
Determine
ES, EF, LS,
LF and
slack for
each
activity

d) What is
the
proba
bility
that
Kelle
Carpet
and
Trim
will
finish
the
projec
t in 40
days
or
less?

3.24 Using
PERT,
Adam
Muns
on
was
able
to
deter
mine
that
the
expect
ed
projec
t
compl
eting
time
for the
constr
uction
of a
pleasu
re
yacht
is
21mo
nths,
and
the
projec
t
varian
ce is 4.
a) what is
the
proba
bility
that
the
projec
t will
be
compl
eted
in
17mo
nths?
b) what is
the
proba
bility
that
the
projec
t will
be
compl
eted
in
20mo
nths?
c) what is
the
proba
bility
that
the
projec
t will
be
compl
eted
in
23mo
nths?
d) what is
the
proba
bility
that
the
projec
t will
be
compl
eted
in
25mo
nths?
e) what is
the due
date that
yields a
95%
chance of
completion
?
H 3 6 9 F
I 10 11 12 G
J 14 16 20 C
K 2 8 10 H, I
a) Determine the expected completion time and variance for
critical activity.

Expected completion time for Activity J =


t= (14 + 4(16) + 20)/6 = 16.333 days

Variance for Activity J= ((20-14)/6)^2)= 1.0

b) Determine the total project completion time and the critical


path for the project

D
J
Start

E
B

I
F
C

c) Determine ES, EF, LS, LF and slack for each activity

d) What is the probability that Kelle Carpet and Trim will finish
the project in 40 days or less?

3.24 Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the
expected project completing time for the construction of a
pleasure yacht is 21months, and the project variance is 4.
a) what is the probability that the project will be completed in
17months?
b) what is the probability that the project will be completed in
20months?
c) what is the probability that the project will be completed in
23months?
d) what is the probability that the project will be completed in
25months?
e) what is the due date that yields a 95% chance of completion?