INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)

Published online 19 March 2008 in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.1680

Investigating the climatic impact of urban planning

strategies through the use of regional climate modelling:
a case study for Melbourne, Australia
Andrew M. Coutts,* Jason Beringer and Nigel J. Tapper
School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic, 3800, Australia

ABSTRACT: Urban planning is a useful method for improving local climate and human health in cities through
purposefully modifying urban land surface characteristics. This can reduce the potential risks of elevated city temperatures
due to the urban heat island (UHI). Unfortunately, simple tools are not readily available for urban planners to assess the
climatological impacts of various urban development scenarios. Urban modelling could be developed into such a tool to
achieve this. This study attempts to design and evaluate a suitable tool for application in Melbourne, Australia. The Air
Pollution Model (TAPM) was chosen to assess the impact of a long-term urban planning strategy on local climate and the
above canopy UHI in Melbourne. Improvements were made to TAPM by increasing the number of urban land-use classes
in the model and creating a higher resolution land cover database focused on housing density. This modified version of
TAPM showed a good performance in replicating the surface energy balance compared with an observational flux tower
site in suburban Melbourne during summer. TAPM simulated a mean maximum UHI intensity of 3–4 ° C at 2 a.m. in
January. A future UHI scenario was then examined (year 2030) using an urban land cover database derived from plans
in the Melbourne 2030 urban planning strategy. Results highlighted specific areas where planning intervention would be
particularly useful to improve local climates, namely activity centres and growth areas. The appropriateness of the use of
TAPM and climate models as a tool in urban planning is also discussed. Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society

KEY WORDS urban planning; urban climate; climate modelling; Melbourne; surface energy balance
Received 18 August 2006; Revised 1 December 2007; Accepted 10 December 2007

1. Introduction UHIs form primarily because of high thermal heat

Unplanned and rapid urbanization in cities can often
lead to negative environmental impacts, including mod-
ifications to the local urban climate. The urban heat
island (UHI) phenomenon is often evident in cities
whereby urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural
areas. UHIs may contribute towards elevated tempera-
tures, which can be harmful for vulnerable urban resi-
dents, particularly during summer and heat wave episodes
(Rankin, 1959). Higher incidences of heat-related ill-
nesses including heart disease and even mortality have
been associated with elevated temperatures within urban
areas. Those particularly at risk include the elderly, low-
income earners, and residents in high density, older hous-
ing stock with limited surrounding vegetation (Smoyer-
Tomic et al., 2003). Fortunately, there is sufficient evi-
dence to suggest that urban planning can be a useful
method for improving local climate and human health
(Jackson, 2003; Stone, 2005). In order to reduce negative
climatological impacts, those involved in urban devel-
opment and design must begin to incorporate climate
knowledge into planning strategies.
* Correspondence to: Andrew M. Coutts, School of Geography and
Environmental Science, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton,
Victoria, 3800, Australia. E-mail: amcou1@student.monash.edu.au
capacity and heat storage of urban surfaces, added
sources of heat from anthropogenic activities, and
reduced evapotranspiration (Oke, 1988). Within the urban
canopy (below maximum building height), urban geome-
try is also important in controlling radiative exchanges
between the walls and floor of urban canyons. Small
sky view factors (SVF) and large height to width ratios
trap radiative energy during the day and limit noctur-
nal cooling. This leads to the development of peak UHI
intensities during the night, as rural areas are allowed
to cool uninhibited. Cloud amount and wind speed are
important meteorological parameters as they affect long-
wave cooling and ventilation, which serve as surrogate
variables describing the relative roles of radiative and tur-
bulent exchanges in and around the urban region (Morris
and Simmonds, 2000).
While the UHI phenomenon has been well documented
in the climatological literature over the past few decades,
few cities have developed comprehensive strategies to
mitigate its intensity. Reasons for little consideration of
climate related understanding in urban planning include
a lack of knowledge, economic constraints, and com-
munication problems (Eliasson, 2000). Added to these
reasons, planning tools are not often available for plan-
ning authorities to assess the implications of projected

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society

1944 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.
land-use change on local climate (Fehrenbach et al.,
2001). According to Eliasson (2000), the development of
such tools based on scientific research that can be incor-
porated into the urban planning framework should be a
challenge and focus for urban climatologists. However,
one such tool that can address the issue of climate impacts
of urban planning strategies, if adequately developed, is
climate modelling, both local and regional. Climate mod-
elling that uses specific treatments at the urban surface
can significantly help in determining the likely impacts of
large scale urbanization on local climate and UHI devel-
opment, improving weather forecasts, estimating energy
consumption, and aiding in urban planning (Kusaka and
Kimura, 2004).
Information at all urban scales (global, regional, local,
and microscale) can be highly beneficial for planners, but
knowledge about climate at the city (regional) and neigh-
bourhood (local) scale is specifically relevant as planning
authorities influence/regulate features at this scale, such
as heights of buildings. For climate models to be a useful
tool in aiding sustainable urban planning, it is important
that they are correctly able to simulate the urban climate
at this scale. The urban surface is highly complex and
models require additional inputs, and new and improved
parameterizations, to accurately simulate the urban cli-
mate (Zehnder, 2002). In particular, the high heat storage
of urban landscapes associated with high thermal admit-
tance and radiation trapping, as well as the added sources
of anthropogenic heat, need to be incorporated. Tools like
satellite imagery (such as MODIS) or databases of urban
land-use and land classification (LULC), now provide
finer spatial resolution of the high heterogeneity of urban
characteristics (albedo, emissivity or heights of buildings)
across cities as input databases for models (Dandou et al.,
2005; Jin and Shepherd, 2005). While accuracy in mod-
elling the urban climate is of prime importance, features
such as ease of use and short running time should also
be important factors, as urban planners require tools that
incorporate such features.
Recent work in regional scale modelling has seen the
development of a number of urban models of varying
degrees of complexity based on two types of param-
eterization schemes. The first type of scheme involves
simple modifications to existing land surface schemes
by modifying or ‘fabricating’ the parameters of the
land surface to broadly behave like an urban surface,
such as increasing roughness lengths and decreasing
albedo (Atkinson, 2003). One simple parameterization
scheme developed by Grimmond and Oke (2002) is called
the Localscale Urban Meteorological Parameterization
Scheme (LUMPS). Using net all-wave radiation, sim-
ple information on surface cover and standard weather
observations, turbulent and storage heat fluxes can be
calculated through a series of linked equations. The equa-
tions include the Objective Hysteresis Model (OHM),
which uses net all-wave radiation and the surface prop-
erties of the site to calculate heat storage (Grimmond
et al., 1991. Taha (1999) used a bulk parameterization
approach to better incorporate heat storage and more
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society
explicitly account for urban canopy layer fluxes, which
also included the OHM. Similarly, Dandou et al. (2005)
made modifications to the thermal part of the fifth-
generation Penn state/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)
that incorporated the OHM. The model also included
anthropogenic heating, while modifications were also
made to the dynamical part of the model resulting in
acceleration to the diffusion processes during unstable
conditions.
The second type of parameterization scheme involves
the inclusion of a separate urban canopy scheme to the
land surface model by incorporating parameters to rep-
resent canyon geometry and interactions between the
walls, rooftops, and roads. A number of variations on
this approach have been developed. Some characteristics
of these included using the drag force approach to repre-
sent the dynamic and turbulent effects of buildings and
vegetation while the thermal modifications of the surface
involve a 3D urban canopy (Dupont et al., 2004; Martilli
et al., 2002). This approach calculates the surface tem-
perature of each surface type by taking into account the
interactions of shadowing and radiation trapping effects.
Single level urban canopy models have also been devel-
oped and incorporated into atmospheric models where
the canopy model simulates turbulent fluxes into the
atmosphere at the base of the atmospheric model, param-
eterizing both the surface and the roughness sub-layer
(Kusaka and Kimura, 2004; Masson, 2000). The Town
Energy Balance model (TEB) is one such scheme and
has been shown to simulate the surface energy balance
and climate well compared with observations (Lemonsu
et al., 2004; Masson et al., 2002). A good summary of
urban modelling approaches and developments can be
found in Dandou et al. (2005).
As a result of such modifications and developments,
the ability of climate models to simulate the urban
climate has improved, as has their appropriateness as
a tool that may aid urban planning. For instance, Taha
(1999) modelled effects of increased albedo for all the
LULC types in Atlanta (increasing residential albedo
from 0.16 to 0.29 etc.) and showed a decrease in the air
temperature of about 0.5 ° C. Atkinson (2003) found that
in London during the day, the albedo, anthropogenic heat,
emissivity, SVF, thermal inertia and surface resistance to
evaporation (SRE) all aided the formation of an UHI to
varying amounts of between 0.2 and 0.8 ° C. SRE was
the most important factor increasing the UHI intensity
during the day, while the roughness length decreased
intensity. At night, the roughness length, emissivity, SVF
and SRE aided UHI formation by 0.3–0.75 ° C, but the
largest effect (2 ° C) came from anthropogenic heating
(Atkinson, 2003). This kind of information is highly
valuable to urban planners in developing policies for
reducing negative climatic impacts to protect vulnerable
urban dwellers from the risk of exposure to elevated heat
conditions.
Given the growing knowledge and capacity of urban
climate modelling, this study attempts to investigate the
role of climate modelling as a tool for use in urban
Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
 URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE
planning and to design and evaluate a suitable tool for
Melbourne, Australia. Through the use of a regional scale
model, The Air Pollution Model (TAPM), the possible
climatic impacts of a long-term urban planning strategy
for Melbourne, were assessed. Future planning directions
of the strategy aim at encouraging a more compact city
by clustering and increasing the amount of housing in
established urban areas. Continued urbanization follow-
ing existing development patterns is likely to lead to an
intensification of the UHI (Coutts et al., 2007b). Using
a modified version of TAPM, we aimed to model the
regional climate of Melbourne and its subsequent UHI.
Modifications included an improved urban surface param-
eterization and an improved land cover input database.
Results will highlight to urban planners that the UHI is
an issue that needs to be addressed and identify spe-
cific areas/regions where planning intervention may be
required. As well as assessing the impact of the urban
planning strategy, we will comment on the use of regional
scale modelling as a tool in urban planning.
2. Methods
2.1. The urban planning strategy for Melbourne,
Australia
The city of Melbourne, Australia is a rapidly growing city
with an anticipated population increase of up to 1 million
people by the year 2030, requiring the development
of approximately 620 000 new households (Department
of Sustainability and Environment, 2002). In 2002, the
Victorian Government introduced a planning strategy to
accommodate this growth titled ‘Melbourne 2030 ’. The
strategy seeks to achieve a more compact city through
the development of activity centres (built up centres
for business, shopping, working and leisure with forms
of higher density housing) and the establishment of
an urban growth boundary (Figure 1) (Department of
Sustainability and Environment, 2002). The anticipated
development of a more compact city, if not planned
in an informed manner, could lead to an exacerbated
UHI intensity. This will be compounded by increased hot
weather and hazardous climatic conditions through global
warming (IPCC, 2007), which will impact especially on
vulnerable urban dwellers. Melbourne already shows an
UHI signature, with a 20-year mean maximum UHI of
2.68 ° C found at 6 a.m. (Morris et al., 2001). During
summer, anti-cyclonic events often bring warm and dry
North to Northeast airflow over Melbourne, and can
send temperatures in excess of 35 ° C during the day,
while mean early morning (6 a.m.) UHI intensity during
these conditions has been observed at 3.56 ° C (Morris
and Simmonds, 2000). These are mean UHI intensities,
suggesting that under optimal conditions (clear skies
and low winds) UHI intensity can be much higher. An
automobile transect across Melbourne in 1992 showed
a peak UHI intensity as high as 7.1 ° C in the central
business district (CBD) during the evening (9 p.m.)
(Torok et al., 2001).
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society
1945
Unplanned and hasty urban development could com-
promise the overall goal of the Melbourne 2030 strategy,
which aims to achieve a liveable, attractive and prosper-
ous city. Cities that are low density and reliant on private
car transport and strong zoning that separates housing,
employment and services are unsustainable. Rather, a sus-
tainable city is often described in the urban design liter-
ature as compact, high density urban form and supported
by a comprehensive transport network, which empha-
sizes connectivity and mixed use developments at critical
nodes (intersecting transport routes) (Mills, 2005). How-
ever, this city model can encourage UHI development
and compromise green-space, potentially threatening the
environmental quality of the city (Pauleit et al., 2005).
Melbourne 2030 aims for a sustainable city and the plan-
ning strategy provided a good opportunity to investigate
the use of regional climate modelling in assessing urban
climate modifications resulting from land-use and plan-
ning policies. Our approach consisted of two scenarios:
(A) a simulation of the current urban climate and UHI
intensity in Melbourne and (B) a year 2030 scenario of
increased urbanization based on the Melbourne 2030 key
directions to investigate likely future changes to urban
climate.
2.2. The air pollution model (TAPM) and urban
modifications
Selecting an appropriate model as a tool for urban climate
impact assessment and use by urban planners is likely to
depend on a number of parameters. The accuracy of the
model must be sufficient to robustly simulate the urban
climate yet not overly complex, computationally expen-
sive, and should be user-friendly. Dandou et al. (2005)
suggested that despite the simplicity of their bulk urban
parameterization scheme, improvements in results were
comparable with that produced by the complex canopy
scheme of Martilli et al. (2002). The ease of use is likely
to be important, and inputs of surface characteristics into
the model should be simply described and readily avail-
able, such as through easily obtainable data on types
of surface cover, vegetation cover, albedo, mean build-
ing height, anthropogenic heating, and dwelling density.
TAPM (Hurley, 2005) was selected for this study as bene-
fits included the ability to conduct year-long simulations;
the ability to run simulations without surface observa-
tional inputs; the ease of a PC-based interface for use in
Windows operating systems; user-defined surface cover
databases; and a range of methods for analysing outputs.
Therefore, TAPM has the potential to be adopted as an
urban planning tool.
The meteorological component of TAPM is an incom-
pressible, non-hydrostatic, primitive equation meteoro-
logical model with a terrain following vertical coordi-
nate for 3D simulations and a 3D nestable, eularian
grid (Hurley, 2005). As described in Hurley (2005), the
prognostic meteorological component solves approxima-
tions to the fundamental fluid dynamics equations, and
rather than requiring site specific observations, flows such
as sea breezes and terrain flows are predicted against
Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
1946 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.

Figure 1. The Melbourne 2030 compact city with the location of activity centres and the urban growth boundary (Department of Sustainability
and Environment, 2003) (State of Victoria, Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2003). This figure is available in colour online at
www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

a background of larger scale meteorology provided by
global synoptic analysis. The vertical fluxes are rep-
resented by a gradient diffusion approach, including a
counter-gradient term for heat flux from turbulence terms
determined by solving equations for turbulent kinetic
energy and eddy dissipation rate. TAPM includes a soil-
vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme, which is
used at the model surface, and a radiative flux parame-
terization at both the model surface and at upper levels
in the atmosphere.
For urban land surfaces in TAPM, temperature and
specific humidity are calculated depending on the frac-
tion of urban surface cover following similar approaches
for non-urban surfaces, except that the surface properties
(albedo, thermal conductivity) are given appropriate
urban values. The anthropogenic heat flux is also included
in the surface flux equations (Hurley, 2005). A number
of validation studies and evaluations have been con-
ducted on TAPM, including one in Melbourne (Hurley
et al., 2003). For the period July 1997 to June 1998,
model verification was completed using eight monitor-
ing sites across Melbourne. Results showed that the 10-
m winds and screen level temperature were predicted
very well with a low average Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) and a high index of agreement (IOA) (Hur-
ley et al., 2003). However, TAPM only incorporated a

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
 URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1947

single homogeneous urban surface class for the entire
urban region with single values for land surface parame-
ters such as albedo and thermal conductivity derived from
the literature.
The surface energy balance is simulated in TAPM and
considered fundamental to an understanding of boundary
layer climates and is basic to an understanding of such
features as thermodynamic behaviour of air and surface
temperature and humidity, and the dynamics of local
airflow (Oke, 1988). Hence, models need to be able to
replicate the partitioning of available energy adequately
in order to robustly simulate the resultant climate. The
urban surface energy balance is given by (Oke, 1988):
Q∗ + QF = QH + QE +
QS
where Q∗ is net radiation, QF is anthropogenic heating,
QH is sensible heat flux, QE is the latent heat flux and

QS is the storage heat flux.
TAPM was modified to improve simulations of urban
environments by incorporating four urban land surface
types (low, medium and high density, and CBD) replac-
ing the existing single urban surface. Surface parameters
in TAPM for the medium density surface type were speci-
fied using information from an observational site located
in suburban Melbourne (Coutts et al., 2007b). The site
was located in Preston, north of Melbourne (145° 0 47 ,
37° 43 57 ) in a sprawling, moderately developed hous-
ing area consisting largely of detached dwellings, typical
of the Melbourne urban landscape (Figure 2). Site char-
acterization showed a plan impervious surface cover of
62%, which included a plan building area of 45% and had
a mean height to width ratio of 0.42. Surface character-
istics observed at the site included fraction of urban and
vegetation cover (determined from aerial photography);
mean building height; anthropogenic heat flux (deter-
mined using population, energy, and transport databases);
roughness length; and albedo (Table I) and were available
as model input parameters.
Surface energy balance measurements from the Pre-
ston site were used to evaluate the performance of the
model for simulated medium density housing in Preston.
Observations were taken from instruments mounted on
a tall tower at a height of 40 m using the eddy cor-
relation technique (Baldocchi et al., 1988) to measure
local scale fluxes (102 –104 m) of sensible and latent

Figure 2. The medium density observational study site in Preston, located north of Melbourne CBD. This figure is available in colour online at
www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

Table I. The original urban surface characteristics from Preston are given along with the values assigned in the model for
each level of urban density: fraction of urban cover σu ; albedo αu ; anthropogenic heat flux Au (W.m−2 ); thermal conductivity
ku (W.m−1 .K−1 ); roughness length z0u (m); building height zH (m); fraction of non-urban area covered by vegetation σf ; leaf
area index LAI; minimum stomatal resistance rsi (s−1 .m−1 ).

σu αu Au ku zou zH σf LAI rsi

Observed (Preston) 0.62 0.15 9–12 – 0.4 12 – – –

TAPM (3.0.2) default 0.5 0.15 30 4.6 1 10 0.75 2 100
Urban (low) 0.5 0.17 10 15 0.4 8 0.75 2 100
Urban (medium) 0.65 0.15 15 25 0.6 12 0.75 2 100
Urban (high) 0.8 0.13 20 40 0.8 16 0.75 2 100
Urban (CBD) 0.95 0.1 40 60 2 100 0.75 2 100

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
1948 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.
heat and momentum. Radiation sensors measured each
component of the radiation balance, giving net radiation.
The storage heat flux was calculated as a residual of the
energy balance equation. Observations of temperature,
vapour pressure, wind speed, and friction velocity were
also conducted. Model outputs matching the location of
the Preston site were compared with the observed sur-
face energy balance and meteorological parameters and
provided information to evaluate how well TAPM repli-
cated the surface energy balance and simulated the local
urban climate at the observational site. This site was one
of three urban flux sites operating at various times and
locations in Melbourne during 2003–2004 (Coutts et al.,
2007b).
The urban land surface characteristics for Urban
(medium) (Table I) were set to be very similar to the
medium density observational site described (Preston).
The low, high, and CBD urban land surface characteris-
tics were then assigned with reference to the values of
Urban (medium) (Table I) using expert knowledge of the
Melbourne urban landscape from the observational cam-
paign (Coutts et al., 2007b) and other literature values.
However, in order to replicate the storage capacity of
a complex 3D urban surface in a one-dimensional sur-
face scheme the thermal conductivity was substantially
increased in the model. Using the value of a component
material such as concrete in bulk model parameterizations
does not capture the full influence of the heterogeneous
urban landscape or the effects of the urban canopy. Sug-
awara et al. (2001) created a thermal property param-
eter (combining the product of specific heat and ther-
mal conductivity) that better represented urban surfaces.
This parameter was determined to be much larger than a
homogenous surface type such as asphalt and concluded
that the value should be a few times larger than the com-
ponent material in bulk urban models that do not deal
with canyon shape explicitly (Sugawara et al., 2001). In
TAPM, the thermal conductivity value for the land sur-
face was modified in order to match the storage heat
flux results from TAPM with the observational results at
the medium density site in Preston during January. The
thermal conductivity needed to be increased well above
realistic values before the surface began behaving simi-
larly to a ‘real’ urban surface, identifying the importance
of canyon geometry in trapping and storing energy.
2.3. Model configuration and database development
Model scenarios for the current and year 2030 scenarios
were performed for January during the Austral summer,
as urban residents are exposed to higher ambient tempera-
tures at this time. Large scale synoptic analyses were used
to force the model between the periods 1997 and 2004.
Synoptic scale forcing meteorology was provided from
the 6-hourly Limited Area Prediction Systems (LAPS)
(Puri et al., 1998) at a 0.75° grid spacing. These 8 years
of January simulations were conducted so that modelled
differences were due to land surface changes and not
due to year-to-year climate variability. Moreover, the
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society
same forcing data were used for each experiment. The
modified TAPM version 3.0.2 was configured with three
nested grids of 110 × 110 horizontal points with the inner
grid encompassing the Melbourne metropolitan area at a
grid spacing of 1000 m centred at 145° 9 E and 37° 59 S.
The middle and outer grid spacings were 3000 m and
10 000 m, respectively, and 25 vertical grid levels were
selected with the highest level at 8000 m. Other databases
of terrain height (9-s DEM), sea surface temperature and
soil classification data, were also used in the scenarios
(Hurley, 2005).
In order to run the scenarios described, relevant
land surface databases were developed at a suitable
resolution for input into TAPM. For the current day
scenario (Scenario A) a vegetation (land-use) database
was obtained that provided recent vegetation cover (1988)
(Geoscience Australia, 2003). In addition, a surface
database of low, medium, and high density areas, as
well as the CBD, was constructed. Information on census
districts for the entire Melbourne metropolitan area were
collected (Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 2001)
and the dwelling density calculated for each district
(dwellings per km2 ). This information was converted to
mean dwelling density for 0.01 decimal degree grid cells
(approximately 1 km). Plans for Melbourne 2030 aim to
increase the average housing density significantly from
1000 dwellings per km2 to an average of 1500 dwellings
per km2 (Department of Sustainability and Environment,
2002). Therefore, high density areas were deemed to be
greater than 15 dwellings per hectare, medium density
areas between 10 and 15 dwellings per hectare and low
density areas less than 10 dwellings per hectare (though
greater than 1) (Figure 3). This database was overlain on
the vegetation database and used as input into TAPM.
The database for the Melbourne 2030 scenario (Sce-
nario B) was based on the document’s key directions
as discussed earlier. Taking the current urban density
database, the urban growth boundary was added and those
areas not currently developed within the urban growth
boundary were assigned to the low density class. The
location of the proposed 26 Principal, 82 Major, and 10
Specialized activity centres were then added, by assum-
ing that the surrounding housing for a 1-km radius would
be high density (within walking distance). Housing within
another 1-km radius was anticipated to increase to at least
medium density while existing high density housing areas
and the CBD areas remained as such (Figure 3).
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Evaluating TAPM against urban surface energy
balance observations
Using the new land surface database of the current Mel-
bourne urban landscape, TAPM was run for the month
of January and compared with the observations at the
medium density observational site (Preston) (Figure 4).
TAPM showed a good performance in replicating the
diurnal course and monthly mean surface energy balance
Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
 URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1949

Figure 3. Land surface database of current density scenario A (left) and the Melbourne 2030 scenario B with the urban growth boundary (right).
This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

Figure 4. Comparison of the observed (dashed line) and modelled (solid line) diurnal surface energy balance (observed height 40 m and model
level 50 m) for location (145° 0 47 , 37° 43 57 ) and corresponding grid point (043, 084) for the month of January 2004. Regression (fit) equations
were Q∗ (y = 1.032x + 58.626); QH (y = 1.137x + 30.017); QE (y = 0.789x + 18.819);
QS (y = 0.833x + 14.007). This figure is available
in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

for the month of January 2004. The evaporative flux was
replicated well by the model, only showing an overesti-
mation in the afternoon. The storage heat flux was also
well replicated, although some discrepancy was evident
in both Q∗ and QH . This is caused by an overestimation
of incoming solar radiation due to the inability of the
model to capture cloudy skies and poor air quality (which
can reflect and scatter incoming short wave radiation),
so monthly averages of Q∗ were overestimated. This
extra energy led to additional partitioning into QH . On
the majority of the January days, the TAPM model per-
formed well. The model also captured important features
of urban energy balance partitioning (Figure 4). These
included the hysteresis pattern in
QS , showing a peak

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
1950 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.

approximately 1–2 h before the peak in Q∗ . The peak
was not as evident in the observations during this month
as what was generally seen during the observational cam-
paign (Coutts et al., 2007b). The asymmetry in QH was
also evident with the peak occurring later in the after-
noon. Importantly, both QH and QE remained positive
into the evening, supported by heat storage release from
the urban fabric, and remained slightly positive through-
out the night.
Despite the discrepancy in Q∗ and QH , the model
accurately simulated temperature, relative humidity, and
wind speed (Figure 5). Slight discrepancies were seen
in the diurnal temperature plot, with a reduced lag in
temperature approaching its maximum and the nighttime
temperatures were underestimated, due to underestima-
tion of nighttime heat storage release. Table II gives the
January 2004 monthly comparison of modelled meteoro-
logical variables and their associated error for the model
grid point corresponding with the measurement tower
location, compiled following Willmott (1981). Statistical
comparisons are also given for the surface energy balance
components.
Changes in urban surface characteristics influence how
net radiation is partitioned into each of the surface energy
balance components, so the flux ratios and how they
vary between density classes were of particular interest
(Figure 6). Also, while the summer month (January) was
of primary interest, there was also observational data
available for a full year (Coutts et al., 2007b) and it
was possible to see how well the model reproduced
the partitioning of the urban surface energy balance
seasonally (Figure 6). Therefore, TAPM was also run
from August 2003 to July 2004 corresponding with the
year-long observational study. Naturally, partitioning in
January was good as the model parameters for the urban
surface characteristics were adjusted to match this data,
yet over the course of the year, the model did not
capture
QS and QH well. A reasonable replication

Figure 5. Comparison of observed (left) and modelled (right) temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed (observed height 40 m, model level
50 m) for location (145° 0 47 , 37° 43 57 ) and corresponding grid point (043, 084) for the month of January 2004.

Table II. Statistical comparison between variables for the observational location (145° 0 47 , 37° 43 57 ) and corresponding model
grid point (043, 084) for the month of January 2004 of temperature T (° C); wind speed WS (m/s); specific humidity q (g/kg);
friction velocity u∗ (m/s); sensible heat flux QH (W.m−2 ); latent heat flux QE (W.m−2 ); and storage heat flux
QS (W.m−2 ).

T WS q u∗ Q∗ QH QE
QS

n 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744

O 16.35 4.74 7.21 0.40 146.26 88.01 40.81 17.43
P 16.00 4.27 6.93 0.44 209.58 130.06 51.00 28.52
sO 3.76 2.33 1.73 0.21 267.22 116.34 45.58 127.61
sP 4.03 1.92 1.38 0.23 307.93 151.91 47.88 131.87
CORR 0.89 0.79 0.73 0.79 0.90 0.87 0.75 0.81
RMSE 1.84 1.50 1.21 0.15 151.10 87.24 34.61 81.71
RMSES 0.39 0.94 0.75 0.07 63.90 44.95 14.03 24.06
RMSEU 1.80 1.17 0.95 0.13 136.92 74.76 31.64 78.09
MAE 0.35 0.47 0.27 −0.04 −63.33 −42.05 −10.19 −11.09
d 0.94 0.86 0.83 0.87 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.89
r2 0.80 0.63 0.53 0.63 0.80 0.76 0.56 0.65

n, number of observations; O, observations; P , predicted values; sO sP , observed and predicted standard deviations; CORR, Pearman Correlation;
RMSE, Root Mean Square Error; RMSES , Systematic RMSE; RMSEU , Unsystematic RMSE; d, Index of Agreement; r 2 , Coefficient of
determination (Willmott, 1981).

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
 URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1951

Figure 6. Mean monthly plots of daytime fractions of Q∗ for each energy balance component and the Bowen Ratio. CBD, HIGH, MEDIUM, and
LOW correspond to each of the urban classes and OBSERVATIONS correspond to the measured data from Preston. The Bowen Ratio (QH /QE )
is not shown for the CBD as it was significantly higher (≈20).

of observations for the evaporative fraction (QE /Q∗ )
was seen over the course of the year. Figure 6 also
demonstrates the differences in partitioning of energy
between each of the urban land surface classes in the
model and shows that the influence of changing the land
surface values alters energy balance partitioning. The
modelled data for these urban classes were not verified
against any observations.
Some differences in energy partitioning over the course
of the year could result from a number of uncertain-
ties. Actual deep soil volumetric moisture contents were
not available to initialize the model and we found
that there was a mismatch in the seasonal course of
QE /Q∗ between the observations and the model out-
put (Figure 6). In the model, moisture contents were
the lowest over the Austral summer months (Decem-
ber–February). Rainfall in Melbourne during February
and March 2004, however, was well below average, so it
was likely that deep soil volumetric moisture contents
were also below average at this time, leading to the
reduced energy partitioning into QE . More accurate val-
ues of monthly soil moisture content could improve this
result. As expected, QE /Q∗ decreased with increasing
urban density as the vegetated surface cover was replaced
with greater impervious surface cover, restricting evapo-
transpiration. Generally, the partitioning of energy into
QE was acceptable over the course of the year and
responded well to the changes in surface cover.
The modelled Urban (medium) heat storage fraction
(
QS /Q∗ ) during the summer period generally showed
a slight underestimation compared with the observations,
but were much improved compared with earlier versions
of TAPM. The substantial increases of the values for
thermal conductivity in the model were large enough to
capture the significant energy storage by the 3D urban
landscape. Comparing each of the densities, the amount
of heat storage increased with increasing density. How-
ever, absorption of energy by the urban surface in the

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
1952 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.
model appeared to saturate (reach a maximum absorptive
capacity) when increasing thermal conductivity. There-
fore, despite the increasing thermal conductivity with
urban density, the 1D land surface in the model did not
capture the full influence of the 3D canyon morphology
on heat storage.
During winter, the land surface scheme did not repli-
cate the high heat absorption (
QS /Q∗ ) by the urban
fabric that was seen in the observations (Figure 6). In
most Northern Hemisphere energy balance studies, a
decrease in heat storage is seen during winter, following
the reduction in Q∗ , as well as added surface moisture
for increased QE /Q∗ (Grimmond, 1992), a pattern that
TAPM did replicate. However, in this case, it may not
be that TAPM inaccurately represented urban heat stor-
age, but rather the uncertainty may lie in the observations.
Spronken-Smith et al. (2006) found in Christchurch, New
Zealand that under settled anti-cyclonic conditions, a
strong inversion can occur that can severely restrict tur-
bulent mixing and influence the above canopy flux mea-
surements. As the observations in Melbourne calculated

QS as a residual of the eddy correlation technique, it
could be that the observational results over emphasize
the importance of heat storage during stable wintertime
conditions and is an area that requires further study.
On account of the slightly underestimated
QS /Q∗ ,
the sensible heating fraction (QH /Q∗ ) during the sum-
mertime for the Urban (medium) density was also slightly
higher than observed. The partitioning of energy was very
similar for each urban density during summer, though all
sites were slightly higher than the observations. This is
often why above canopy temperatures are similar across
an urban area during the day, as higher density sites
absorb more energy and
QS /Q∗ increases, restricting
the availability for atmospheric heating, which sometimes
aids Urban Cool Island (UCI) development in combina-
tion with shading (Morris and Simmonds, 2000). The
Bowen ratio (QH /QE ) throughout the year was well
replicated compared with Urban (medium) and increased
with higher urban density (Figure 6). The Bowen ratio
from the model results also preceded the observations
again as a result of the lack of input data for the soil
moisture content and the influence of this on QE .
The model was not able to accurately replicate the
partitioning of energy outside of the summer months.
However, as TAPM was replicating the partitioning of
energy and meteorological parameters at the surface rea-
sonably well in January, it can be used for the scenarios
described with a good degree of confidence. While a
crude method of parameterizing the model to behave
more like an urban surface was used, and direct validation
was not completed on the energy balance partitioning,
the model has vastly improved on the performance of
TAPM version 2.0 before the modifications were made
(data not shown). Additionally, the model was only eval-
uated for the medium density urban class, so there may
be limitations in the model’s applicability to other urban
density classes. The lack of an urban canopy scheme
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society
could also limit the model’s capacity to accurately repli-
cate urban heat storage across density classes. There is
obvious scope for a specific urban parameterization in
TAPM.
3.2. Modelling UHI intensity and the impact of
Melbourne 2030
TAPM was configured as described in Section 2.3 and
run for eight Januaries from 1997 to 2004 to provide an
ensemble average for current summertime conditions and
then again for the 2030 planning scenario. The current
scenario (A) showed a mean nighttime (0200) UHI of
approximately 3–4 ° C in the CBD, reducing as distance
from the CBD increased (Figure 7(a)). Variability was
high with anomalous warmer and cooler areas seen across
the metropolitan area corresponding with urban density
class. The modelled UHI intensity was similar in range
to those previously observed in Melbourne (Morris and
Simmonds, 2000; Morris et al., 2001). During the day
(1400) the current Scenario (A) screen level UHI was not
as intense as at 0200, but still showed an UHI intensity
of 1–2 ° C, with temperatures being more uniform across
the region (Figure 7(b)). The CBD was not warmer than
the surrounding urban area. Temperatures away from the
coast to the north and east of Port Phillip Bay showed
higher values as a result of mesoscale airflows and a
regional sea breeze. During the night, the lower wind
speeds reduced the influence of the regional flows and the
urban density more strongly controlled the development
of the UHI. The modelled UHI also varied with synoptic
conditions that supported maximum UHI development
under conditions of anti-cyclonic highs centred just east
of Melbourne, low wind speeds and cloudless skies
(Morris and Simmonds, 2000). The Melbourne 2030
scenario (B) revealed a slightly modified UHI pattern
from the current scenario (A) (Figure 7(c) and (d)).
While the maximum intensity of the UHI did not increase,
the areal extent of elevated temperatures expanded. The
nighttime UHI reduced in its spatial variability, becoming
more uniform across the urban area similar to that of the
daytime UHI.
Analysing the difference in screen level tempera-
ture between the current and Melbourne 2030 scenarios
allows specific areas of significant warming to be iden-
tified and is what urban planners are most interested in.
The extent of change in the UHI resulting from planning
strategies shows areas that are particularly vulnerable.
This information can be used for improved planning deci-
sions. The greatest temperature increases during night-
time maximum UHI intensity (Figure 8) were seen in
areas where development replaced pasture land and in
new activity centres. Temperatures in other areas of Mel-
bourne also appeared to respond significantly to increases
in housing density especially along the edge of the current
urban-rural boundary. Some of these areas are located
along transport links and ‘growth areas’ designated for
concentrated expansion as outlined in Melbourne 2030.
While these areas are likely to show the greatest increase
in temperatures in 2030, temperatures were only seen to
Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
 URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1953

Figure 7. Spatial variability in mean screen level temperatures for the Melbourne area at 02 : 00 (2 a.m.) and 14 : 00 (2 p.m.) h for each scenario:
A – Current development at 02 : 00 (a) and 14 : 00 (b); B – Melbourne 2030 planned development at 02 : 00 (c) and 14 : 00 (d). This figure is
available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

increase to levels currently seen within the CBD. Initia-
tives that can help reduce temperature increases can be
more easily incorporated into newly developing regions,
rather than in existing urban development. Therefore,
these growth areas and new or minimally developed exist-
ing activity centres could provide excellent opportunities
for UHI mitigation strategies to be put in place.
During the day, some portions of Melbourne to the
west and north showed elevated temperatures following
the planned development (Figure 9). Interestingly, during
the day a large fraction of the urban area, mainly where
development increases from low to higher densities, actu-
ally showed a very slight decrease (largely insignificant)
in temperature due to the increased heat storage limiting
the amount of energy available for atmospheric heating
and reducing temperatures. The areas of greatest tempera-
ture increase were the planned growth areas where devel-
opment will replace existing natural landscapes. While it
may seem that these mean temperatures are not high,
during periods in summer of extreme heat, temperatures
can be much higher. While higher nighttime tempera-
tures from restricted nocturnal cooling in urban areas may
not seem like a significant problem, extended periods of
warmer temperatures can limit nighttime recovery from
daily heat stress. Inland activity centres that do not feel
the effects of the cooling sea breeze would especially
benefit from UHI mitigation measures.
The planned increase in urban density through the
establishment of an urban growth boundary and the
development of activity centres in Melbourne will likely
lead to a more intense UHI during the night, while during
the day this is less significant. Coutts et al. (2007b) in
their observational study in Melbourne found that during
the summer across three urban sites of varying urban
density, all sites showed a mean daytime Bowen ratio
of over 2 and the daily Bowen ratio was sometimes

Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
1954 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.

Figure 8. Change in mean nighttime (02 : 00) screen level temperature change from the current urban development, to that proposed by the
Melbourne 2030 planning strategy. Areas within the contours are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. This figure is available in
colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

Figure 9. Change in mean daytime (14 : 00) screen level temperature from the current urban development, to that proposed by the Melbourne
2030 planning strategy. Areas within the contours are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. This figure is available in colour
online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
 URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE
in excess of 5. The increase in Bowen ratios with
increasing urban density modelled in this study were
not found in the observational results as evaporative
fluxes were very similar across all housing densities
despite varying vegetation cover. This was a result of
poor moisture availability in response to water restrictions
when observations were conducted (Coutts et al., 2007b).
Therefore during the summer, the entire Melbourne
region experienced warm, dry and hence unfavourable
climatic conditions. Adoption of the Melbourne 2030
strategy is not likely to increase Bowen ratios across
the city significantly, but there will be an extension of
warm and dry conditions over longer periods of the
day as well as an extension of the seasonal exposure to
unfavourable conditions along with an increased spatial
extent, especially if water restrictions remain tight.
In this study, the effect of heat trapping and storage in
the urban environment was replicated in the simulations
by significantly increasing the thermal conductivity. The
3D nature and complexity of the urban landscape was
not explicitly included in the model, unlike new urban
canopy schemes. As a result, the model could not deliver
within-canopy temperatures, which could possibly be
greater than the modelled temperatures in this study.
Modelled screen level temperatures were also slightly
underestimated during the evening and night due to an
underestimation of the slow release of heat stored in
the urban fabric due to complex canyon morphology
(including walls). Finally, the Melbourne 2030 scenario
(B) only accounts for climatic impacts from land cover
change. Mean global temperatures over the last 100 years
(1906–2005; 100-year linear trend) have increased by
0.74 ° C (±0.18 ° C) largely as a result of carbon dioxide
(CO2 ) emissions (IPCC, 2007), so projected global
temperature rises (0.2 ° C per decade for the next two
decades (IPCC, 2007)) coupled with heating from further
urban development will lead to further increases in urban
temperatures. Also, the frequency of extreme warm days
and nights has increased since 1961 (Plummer et al.,
1999). Urban areas themselves are a significant source of
CO2 mostly from vehicles emissions with local annual
emissions from urban Melbourne as high as 84.9 t
CO2 ha−1 y−1 (Coutts et al., 2007a). Urban planning
measures such as energy-efficient buildings and increased
public transport use would help contribute to combating
greenhouse gas emissions.
4. Conclusions
Simulations of the changes in climate resulting from the
proposed land cover changes identified in the directions
of the Melbourne 2030 plan showed that continued
increases in density would result in an increased intensity
of the nighttime Melbourne UHI. Growth areas and
particular activity centres were predicted to have the
greatest temperature increases. During the day, the impact
of changes in urban development was not seen to
increase the peak daytime temperature due to increased
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society
1955
storage limiting the amount of sensible heating of the
atmosphere. Yet, existing urban climates during summer
days can already be unfavourable with high Bowen
ratios regularly observed across varying densities of the
city (Coutts et al., 2007b). These results demonstrate
the utility of regional scale climate modelling as a
tool for climate impact assessment and show the ability
to determine likely climate modifications from simple
land-use changes based on planning directions. The
use of TAPM for the Melbourne urban landscape was
adequate for January, and identified that continued urban
development in Melbourne could lead to higher diurnal
exposure to warmer temperatures. Modelling results such
as these are an excellent way to present and convey
information and issues to environmental planners.
Planning in urban areas to ameliorate, and limit the
development of degraded local climates has been known
for decades (Aron, 1984; Oke, 1984; Oke, 2005), yet pol-
icy development in this area is still lacking despite calls
for improvements. The concept of sustainable settlements
is recognized within Melbourne 2030 with initiatives
such as those under the direction of ‘A greener city’,
including reducing the impacts of storm-water on bays
and catchments, and the management of water resources
(Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2002).
Melbourne 2030 currently notes concern for issues such
as global warming and a livable city but an assessment
of the impact of a more compact city on climate had not
been undertaken. Our analysis should persuade the devel-
opment of new policies for UHI mitigation by planners.
This work may be opportune since the Melbourne 2030
plan is due for review in 2007. Some initiatives already
exist that aid in reducing UHI intensity include energy-
efficient buildings and encouraging a shift in travel from
private vehicles to public transport, which will reduce
anthropogenic heat emissions. While this is good, a com-
prehensive UHI mitigation strategy for Melbourne is
required and it is hoped that this study will prompt the
Melbourne 2030 planning group to act and encourage the
implementation of UHI mitigation initiatives. It would be
a great opportunity for the Victorian Government, who
wish to lead by example in environmental management
(Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2002).
Regional scale modelling of urban climate is a pow-
erful tool and the use of TAPM as a model for use
in urban planning has both benefits and shortfalls. As
TAPM is now set up for Melbourne, further summertime
scenarios could be conducted to investigate the poten-
tial of mitigation strategies such as alterations in surface
albedo or the effect of increasing vegetation cover. Also,
any type of urban spatial configuration at the neighbour-
hood scale could also be easily modelled. This study has
demonstrated the potential for TAPM to become a rig-
orous model for use in urban planning. However, much
improvement is still required before it could be com-
monly used. Operating the model for other Australian
or international cities may not be feasible without some
modification of surface parameters (requiring local field
observations) or development of new parameterizations.
Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1943–1957 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
1956 A. M. COUTTS ET AL.
Also, as the winter performance of the model was poor,
further improvements to TAPM would be required before
it could be used as a year round urban climate model
for climate impact assessment or forecasting. On account
of the high spatial resolution used in these scenarios,
compute time was long and could be improved on high-
performance machines.
TAPM does not currently have any urban canopy
scheme and so does not explicitly resolve canyon geom-
etry effects and hence there is a lot of room for improve-
ments through new urban parameterizations. This high-
lights the need for further developments in urban climate
modelling within the Australian modelling community,
especially as the focus on extreme temperatures in urban
regions grows. The inclusion of an urban canopy scheme
would also then permit modelling of diurnal tempera-
ture scenarios, rather than just the monthly averages for
January presented here. A complex urban canopy model
with the simplicity and ease of use of TAPM would be
an ideal product. The UHI was predicted well compared
with previous observed ranges of UHI intensity. Future
work could also involve coupling TAPM with a water
use model such as Aquacycle (Mitchell et al., 2001),
which could allow investigation of climate interaction
with human water consumption and irrigation, which is
very important (and ever growing in importance), in the
Melbourne urban landscape.
Despite the ease of use of the PC-based TAPM,
substantial resources are required to both understand
and run the model, and to develop the urban databases
for their application in the simulations. The potential
operation of climate models directly by urban planners
may be unachievable currently and therefore climate
impact studies of urban development scenarios are best
out-sourced to urban climatologists. While continued
model improvements and validation are still needed, even
the best urban climate model would need to be run by
those who know how to use it. An inter-disciplinary
and team-based approach is imperative in order for
this to be effective (Oke, 2005). As a result, planners
and climatologists must work together utilizing their
full knowledge and allowing the development of more
accurate urban climate predictions.
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Peter Hurley for assistance and the conduction
of modifications to the model. Thanks to Peter Wallace of
P. G. Wallace Communications for permission of the use
of the communications tower for the field observations
and to Christopher Barker for assistance in setting up
and maintenance of the towers and equipment. The loan
of instrumentation by Lindsay Hutley (Charles Darwin
University) and Russell Jaycock (James Cook University)
is also greatly appreciated.
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society
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