Commodity Research

06-Dec-2019

Daily Commodities Coverage

DAILY COMMODITIES COVERAGE

MCX (Rs) Performance till date (2019)

Commodity Closing %Change OI Vol. Commodity MTD QTD YTD 2017
Spot MCX(Rs)
Gold Spot 38042 0.00 - - Gold -0.63% 3.08% 21.26% 30.71%
Gold Global Mcx 0.00 - - Silver -1.73% 0.73% 14.80% 13.58%
Precious Metals Crude 4.41% 7.48% 32.71% 8.96%
Gold Feb 38113 0.05 17245 9461 N.Gas 0.00% 4.55% -17.91% -7.96%
Silver Mar 44557 0.29 12812 15640 Copper 0.34% -1.95% 5.17% -7.63%
Energy Zinc 0.69% -1.64% 5.92% -14.21%
Crude Dec 4193 0.22 30253 274810 Lead 0.23% -2.05% 8.65% -4.65%
Nat.gas Dec 174.5 1.87 24298 108060 Aluminium -0.56% -1.52% 3.07% -8.52%
Nickel 1.16% -18.96% 33.09% 20.56%
Base Metals
Comex($)
Copper Dec 430.65 -0.10 6413 9588
Gold Spot -0.23% 1.05% 15.50% 13.27%
Zinc Dec 182.45 -0.84 9764 15642
Silver Spot -1.51% -0.82% 9.78% -0.82%
Lead Dec 152.65 -0.07 1455 2664
Nymex($)
Aluminium Dec 132.6 -0.45 1901 1477
Crude 4.62% 6.23% 30.39% -2.93%
Nickel Dec 986 1.68 2049 14897
N.Gas 0.33% 3.97% -20.62% -17.61%
Main Referential Exchanges Prices ($) Brent 3.98% 4.09% 19.91% -5.14%
Commodity Closing %Change
Gold Spot 1479.13 0.34 321 crack Spread -3.98% -15.38% -2.64% -26.57%
Silver Spot 16.9669 0.58 LME($)
Precious Metals Copper 0.03% 2.05% -1.87% -18.79%
Gold 1483.1 0.20 Zinc 0.13% -2.50% -7.95% -32.33%
Silver 17.005 0.53 Lead 0.84% -7.10% -6.79% -22.73%
Platinum 900.4 0.05 Aluminium -1.79% 1.33% -4.72% -22.49%
Palladium 1873.35 0.11 Nickel -4.34% -23.74% 22.27% 2.82%
Energy Other Markets
WTI 58.65 0.38 MTD QTD YTD 2017
N.Gas 2.433 1.42 Indices
Brent Crude 63.43 0.68 CRB Index 1.38% 3.31% 6.54% -6.91%
Dollar Index -0.27% -1.92% 1.26% 5.74%
Heating Oil 193.05 0.40
USDINR -0.66% 0.84% 2.27% 11.60%
Gasoline 162.09 1.04
EURUSD 0.16% 1.80% -3.01% -7.64%
321 Crack Spread 13.769 0.02
Dow Jones 0.78% 2.33% 19.08% 11.66%
Base Metals (LME-$/tons)*
S&P 1.07% 4.41% 25.11% 16.45%
Copper 5885 1.20
GBPUSD 1.17% 6.97% 3.19% -2.74%
Zinc 2246 2.00
USDJPY 0.13% 0.54% -0.92% -3.45%
Lead 1922 1.16 EURCHF 0.24% 0.73% -2.73% -6.35%
Aluminium 1758 -0.45 USDCHF 0.08% -1.04% 0.30% 1.40%
Nickel 13120 -1.91
DAILY COMMODITIES COVERAGE

Fundamental-BULLION
 Review: The yellow metal prices on Thursday seesawed before settling the session moderately up, recouping much of the losses suffered
a day earlier, as dollar index extended its falling line for fifth consecutive day to hit fresh four-week low and as traders awaited U.S.
nonfarm payroll data due at 07:00 pm IST today, which may influence haven demand for the precious metal. The key nonfarm payroll
number is expected to come in at up around 186,000 jobs in November from 128,000 jobs in October.
 In economic data Thursday, The U.S. jobless claims - the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits - fell to
the lowest level in seven months in the week ended Nov. 30, falling 10,000 from the previous week to 203,000 compared with market
expectations for rise to 215,000. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $47.2 billion in Oct from downwardly revised $51.1 billion in September.
 Outlook: The short term fundamental view is likely to remain choppy, erratic moves are possible in days to come in the wake of growing
uncertainties about U.S. – China trade deal. However, fading possibilities for U.S. interest rate cut in next FOMC meeting, easy money policy
across the globe and central bank’s buying of yellow metal along with global economic weakness will keep gold prices supported in
medium to long term.

Fundamental- BASE METALS

 Review: Base metal prices traded mixed on Thursday in the wake of indecisive development in U.S. – China trade deal. Copper prices rose
for second day in row after U.S. president Donald Trump said Thursday that “the trade talks were moving right along”. Disappointing
German factory orders fueled the concerns of economic slowdown as reading fell .4% MoM in Oct after rising 1.5% in previous month and
missing expectations of 0.3% rise. However, sentiments didn’t turn much worsen on better than expected U.S. economic numbers.
 In economic data, the U.S. factory orders rose 0.3% MoM, the highest level in three-month, in October after falling 0.8% in previous month,
while coming in line with market forecast. The Japanese government approved a ¥26 trillion stimulus package to support and prevent the
economy from risk posed by global slowdown.
 Outlook: Following the ongoing fundamental developments, near term outlook turned little dicey and will be largely depend on progress in
U.S. – China trade deal. However, we believe outlook seems to remain faltered, not just because of uncertainties around U.S. – China trade
deal but also on the barrage downbeat economic release from China – the biggest consumer of base metals. Moreover, ongoing political
unrest in Hong Kong also cast dark clouds on sustained economic growth in region, an additional headwind for prices.

Fundamental- ENERGY
 Review: The U.S. crude oil prices traded higher in early trading hours on upbeat U.S. economic number along with mounting expectations
of reduction in crude oil output by OPEC and their allies. WTI crude oil settled unchanged for the session at $58.43 a barrel, while Brent
crude added 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.39 a barrel.
 The Organization of Petroleum and Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies agreed to cut output by an extra 0.5 million barrels per day
in the first quarter of 2020, now their new combined cut comes at 1.7 million bpd or 1.7% of global production. OPEC members in
November pumped 29.65 million barrels a day of crude oil.
 Outlook: Investor’s focus completely shifted towards the U.S. non-farm report and development in trade deal between U.S. and China. Oil
prices failed to take bullish step after OPEC and their allies agreed to cut oil production. Following the barrage of upbeat U.S. economic
numbers, it appears U.S. economy is in good shape, despite all that prices of crude oil remained suppressed due to uncertainties in U.S. –
China trade deal. We believe prices will remain directionless until meaningful conciliation in trade deal.
DAILY COMMODITIES COVERAGE

SPREAD WATCH
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2 Today's Trade Recommendation
Commodity NM-CM FM-CM FM-NM
MCX(Rs) Bullion
Gold 7.00 -177.00 -184.00 Gold Feb 37850 37900 38200 38400 Range 37850 to 38200
Silver 443.00 -77.00 -520.00 Silver Mar 43880 44150 44750 44950 Sell at 44750, sl 44950, tgt 44200
Crude 2.00 16.00 14.00
Energy
N.Gas -1.50 -6.70 -5.20
Copper 4.45 8.55 4.10 Crude Dec 4090 4110 4195 4230 Range 4110-4195
Zinc 2.30 4.25 1.95 Natural Gas Dec 169 171 178 180.50 Buy at 172, sl 169, tgt 178
Lead 1.00 1.60 0.60 Base Metals
Aluminum 2.55 6.95 4.40 Copper Dec 429.50 431 434.50 436 Buy at 431 sl 429.50, tgt 434.50
Nickel -3.90 -9.30 -5.40
Nickel Dec 978 985 1002 1010 Buy 985 sl 975 tgt 1002
Note: CM,NM&FM stands for current, Next & Far Zinc Dec 182 183 185 186 Sell at 184.80, sl 185.50, tgt 183
month respectively
Lead Dec 151.90 152.50 154 155 Sell at 153.80, sl 154.50, tgt 152.50
Value of Bullion ETF/ETP Holding in MT
Aluminium Dec 131.50 132.50 133.50 135 Range 132.50 to 133.50
12/5/2019 12/3/2019 Change
Other
Gold-SPDR 888.57 889.16 -0.59
Steel Jan 28790 29000 29400 29550 Range 29000 to 29400
Gold-ETP 2520.55 2519.71 0.8389
Diamond Jan 3560 3565 3585 3592 Sell at 3585, sl 3592, tgt 3565
Rubber Dec 12900 13100 13650 13920 Buy at 13250, sl 13100, tgt 13600
Silver-Ishare
Comex($)
LME Warehouse Summary (Tonnes)
Gold Spot 1445 1470 1500 1520 -
Commodity 12/5/2019 12/3/2019 Change
Copper 202950 206250 -3300 Silver Spot 16.40 16.80 17.30 17.90 -
Zinc 59075 59200 -125 Nymex($)
Lead 67125 67125 0 Crude Oil WTI Spot 53 54.20 58.80 61 -
Aluminium 1274850 1277300 -2450 NG Dec 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.92 -
LME($)
Nickel 68976 68982 -6
Copper CFD 5620 5800 6050 6200 -
Shanghai Inventories (Tonnes)
12/5/2019 11/22/2019 Change Zinc CFD 2200 2250 2650 3800 -

Copper 120192 135037 -14845 Lead CFD 1720 1800 2320 2500 -
Aluminium CFD 1600 1650 1820 1930 -
Zinc 45772 49710 -3938
Nickel CFD 13500 14200 17200 17700 -
DAILY COMMODITIES COVERAGE

Gold Spot V/s Dollar Index Inverted Dollar Index V/s Euro Spot
Gold Spot (1472.48) Dollar Index (97.68) Gold Silver Ratio Dollar Index (97.68) EUR SPOT (1.1087)
96
(86.4747) 1.3
1600 95.5 94 104
1.27
96 92 102
1550 100 1.24
96.5 90
88 98 1.21
1500 97 1.18
86 96
97.5 84 1.15
1450 94
98 82 92 1.12
1400 98.5 80 90 1.09
78
99 88 1.06
1350 76
99.5 74 86 1.03
1300 100 72 84 1
5-Jul-19 8-Aug-19 11-Sep-19 15-Oct-19 18-Nov-19 5-Jul-19 8-Aug-19 11-Sep-19 15-Oct-19 18-Nov-19 5-Jul-19 8-Aug-19 11-Sep-19 15-Oct-19 18-Nov-19

Source:Bloomberg,Globe Commodities Source:Cogencis,Globe Commodities Source:Bloomberg,Globe Commodities

Date Time Currency Data Actual Forecast Previous

12:30pm Germany German Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.60%

All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings

All Day Euro Zone ECOFIN Meetings

Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.30% 0.20%

Friday
7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 189K 128K
Dec 6
Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60%
US
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97 96.8

8:30pm Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.20% 0.20%

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.50%

 DAILY COMMODITIES COVERAGE

Research Team – Commodity & Currency

Himanshu Gupta : Head of Research- Commodities & Currency
Vishnu Kant Upadhyay : Manager - Commodities Research
Deepak Agarwal : Manager-Research
Praveen Kumar Mishra : Executive

Voice : 011-43666549
Spark ID : comm.research

Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and is not for public distribution. The information provided in the document is from information/data available in public domain
and other sources, which we believe, are reliable. We have made our best efforts to try and ensure accuracy of data however, Globe and/or any of its affiliates and/or employees shall not liable for resultant loss or
damage that may arise from use of this document. Globe and/or any of its affiliates and/or employees may or may not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in the document. Investors should not solely
rely on the information contained in this document and must make investment decisions based on their own investment objectives, risk appetite, investment hori\zon, financial strength or other parameter. The
recipients of this material should take their own professional advice or consult your SEBI registered Investment Adviser for your specific investment related advice/requirements and/or before acting on this
information. The report also includes analysis and views expressed by our research team. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or
solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. Globe and/or
its affiliate companies may deal in the securities mentioned herein as a broker or in its proprietary account or for any other transaction as a Market Maker, Investment Advisor, etc. to the issuer company or its
connected persons. This report is published by Globe research desk. Globe has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers and also have
proprietary trading which are having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc and therefore, may at times have different and contrary views on stocks, sectors and markets from the research team.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to local law, regulation or which would subject Globe and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described
herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such
restrictions.