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Durian Model The base model, used to answer questions 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d and 2e
Note that the QMacros model used is the M/M/s/I - Det model
If a regular M/M/s model is needed, set the impatience time to a large number
and make sure that the load factor is below 1.0
Q2e(1) Analysis of staffing scenarios for question 2e with arrival rate 100 deals/yr
All other assumptions are the same as in questions 2c and 2d
Q2e(2) Analysis of staffing scenarios for question 2e with preliminary evaluation abandonment rate reduced to 45%
All other assumptions are the same as in questions 2c and 2d
Q2g Model This model assumes that Junior Professionals are split into 2 groups by industry sector
Each group processes half of the deals and is allocated half the junior professionals
Q2g Analysis of staffing scenarios for question 2g with preliminary evaluation abandonment rate reduced to 45%
Notes: The models in worksheets "Durian Model" and "Q2g Model" will only recalculate correctly if the QMacros.xla add-in is installed.
If Qmacros.xla is installed and there are errors, try choosing Fix Links (or Fix All Links) from the ADD-INS > QMacros menu.
To improve readability of the models, names have been defined in sheets "Durian Model" and "Q2g Model".
The names in "Durian Model" are global in scope, the names in "Q2g Model" are local (only apply to that worksheet).
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed 7 5 2
MAJOR RESULTS
Deals and Financials
Avg Total Time for Avg Nr of Deals Avg Nr of Deals Completed Cost of Professionals Exp. Value per Deal Expected NPV
Completed Deals (wks) in Process (1/yr) ($/yr) Completed ($) ($/yr)
17.22123686 7.7532922 #VALUE! 3,770,000 3,311,151 #VALUE!
DETAILED RESULTS
Accounting for Abandonment and Reneging
Job Counts Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation
Nr Starting (1/yr) 90 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Nr Reneging (1/yr) 0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Nr Finishing (1/yr) #VALUE! #VALUE!
Nr Abandoning (1/yr) #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Nr to Next Stage (1/yr) #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Probability distributions of Deals Completed and NPV Earned in a year
k Pr(Deals Completed = k) Pr(Deals Completed > k) NPV Earned ($)
0 #VALUE! #VALUE! ( 3,770,000)
1 #VALUE! #VALUE! ( 458,849)
2 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2,852,301
3 #VALUE! #VALUE! 6,163,452
4 #VALUE! #VALUE! 9,474,602
5 #VALUE! #VALUE! 12,785,753
6 #VALUE! #VALUE! 16,096,903
7 #VALUE! #VALUE! 19,408,054
8 #VALUE! #VALUE! 22,719,204
9 #VALUE! #VALUE! 26,030,355
10 #VALUE! #VALUE! 29,341,505
PMF of Deals Completed Complementary CDF of Deals Completed
1 1
Pr(Deals Completed > k)
0.9 0.9
Pr(Deals Completed = k)
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
k k
Calculation of Senior Professional Time per Deal
Stage: Negotiation Deal Completion Average per Deal
Nr of deals 1 0.2
Avg Proc. Time (wks) 4 5 5
Queueing Model Parameters
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Deal arrival rate (1/wk) 1.836734694 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Avg Proc. Time (wks) 3.076923077 4 5
Avg Proc. Time for completed
3.076923077 4 9
deals (wks)
Minimum Resrouce Levels
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Minimum Needed 6 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Queueing Models
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
M/M/s/I - Det
Parameters
Arrival Rate (1/week) 1.836734694 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Service Rate (1/week) 0.325 0.25 0.2
Nr of Servers 7 5 2
Renege Time (week) 10000 10000 10000
Results
Load Factor 0.807355909 *** ERROR *** *** ERROR ***
Fraction Not Served 0 ArrivalRate not a number ArrivalRate not a number
Thruput (1/week) 1.836734694 *** ERROR *** *** ERROR ***
Utilization 0.807355909
Remaining Results for Served Only
Avg Nr in System 7.7532922
Avg Nr in Queue 2.101800834
Time in System (week) 4.221236864
Wait in Queue (week) 1.144313787
Pr{Wait=0} 0.498486968
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE - Q2cd (Reneging if Negotiation Wait Exceeds 1 Week)
Decisions: Nr Employed Results
Mid- Avg Total Time for Cost of Exp. Value per
Scenario Junior Senior Avg Nr of Deals in Avg Nr of Deals Expected NPV
level Completed Deals Professionals Deal Completed
Pro Pro Process Completed (1/yr) ($/yr)
Pro (wks) ($/yr) ($)
15 7 5 3 18.57 14.02 2.70 4,550,000 3,257,188 4,245,174
9 6 5 3 24.88 25.62 2.70 4,420,000 3,004,657 3,693,283
7 7 4 3 27.37 22.10 2.70 4,290,000 2,905,308 3,555,017
19 6 5 4 24.86 25.72 2.91 5,200,000 3,005,534 3,542,065
18 6 6 3 23.93 24.74 2.70 4,680,000 3,042,613 3,535,772
13 8 4 3 26.59 20.67 2.70 4,420,000 2,936,358 3,508,860
6 7 5 2 18.61 13.78 2.21 3,770,000 3,255,704 3,421,645
16 7 4 4 27.35 22.20 2.91 5,070,000 2,906,185 3,383,093
12 8 5 2 17.83 12.35 2.21 3,900,000 3,286,754 3,360,233
14 7 6 2 17.66 12.90 2.21 4,030,000 3,293,659 3,245,486
4 6 4 3 33.68 33.69 2.70 4,160,000 2,652,778 3,003,126
3 6 5 2 24.92 25.37 2.21 3,640,000 3,003,173 2,993,821
2 7 4 2 27.40 21.85 2.21 3,510,000 2,903,824 2,904,365
5 8 4 2 26.63 20.43 2.21 3,640,000 2,934,875 2,842,953
8 6 6 2 23.97 24.50 2.21 3,900,000 3,041,129 2,817,663
10 6 4 4 33.66 33.79 2.91 4,940,000 2,653,654 2,778,569
11 9 4 2 26.40 20.00 2.21 3,770,000 2,944,159 2,733,461
17 6 7 2 23.72 24.27 2.21 4,160,000 3,051,135 2,579,765
1 6 4 2 33.72 33.45 2.21 3,380,000 2,651,294 2,476,542
20 6 4 5 33.65 33.83 2.98 5,720,000 2,654,056 2,181,804
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES
PARAMETERS
General Parameters
Deal arrival rate (1/yr) Weeks worked (1/yr) Cost of Delay ($/$/wk) Avg Deal Value ($)
90 49 0.01 4,000,000
Processing Parameters
Processing Stage: Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation Deal Completion
Process time (hrs/deal) 150 120 80 100
Resource Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional Senior Professional
Abandonment rate 50.00% 66.67% 80.00% 0.00%
Renege time (wks) 10000 10000 10000 N/A
Resource Parameters
Resource: Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional
Unavailable for processing 25.00% 50.00% 66.67%
Hours worked per week 65 60 60
Cost per week 2500 5000 15000
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE - Q2e (Deal arrival rate increased)
Decisions: Nr Employed Results
Mid- Avg Total Time for Cost of Exp. Value per
Scenario Junior Senior Avg Nr of Deals in Avg Nr of Deals Expected NPV
level Completed Deals Professionals Deal Completed
Pro Pro Process Completed (1/yr) ($/yr)
Pro (wks) ($/yr) ($)
16 8 5 4 19.41 16.16 3.20 5,460,000 3,223,572 4,848,159
7 8 5 3 19.44 16.03 2.93 4,680,000 3,222,558 4,758,944
15 8 6 3 17.52 14.07 2.93 4,940,000 3,299,209 4,723,456
10 7 5 4 21.69 20.81 3.20 5,330,000 3,132,347 4,686,444
13 9 5 3 18.95 15.03 2.93 4,810,000 3,242,115 4,686,226
19 7 6 4 19.78 18.86 3.20 5,590,000 3,208,998 4,671,554
4 7 5 3 21.72 20.68 2.93 4,550,000 3,131,332 4,621,743
9 7 6 3 19.80 18.73 2.93 4,810,000 3,207,984 4,586,255
18 7 7 3 19.37 18.28 2.93 5,070,000 3,225,377 4,377,202
20 7 5 5 21.68 20.86 3.30 6,110,000 3,132,856 4,215,709
2 8 5 2 19.48 15.74 2.35 3,900,000 3,220,959 3,673,996
6 8 6 2 17.56 13.78 2.35 4,160,000 3,297,611 3,594,239
5 9 5 2 18.99 14.74 2.35 4,030,000 3,240,516 3,589,984
1 7 5 2 21.76 20.39 2.35 3,770,000 3,129,734 3,589,482
12 9 6 2 17.07 12.79 2.35 4,290,000 3,317,167 3,510,226
3 7 6 2 19.84 18.44 2.35 4,030,000 3,206,385 3,509,725
11 10 5 2 18.82 14.40 2.35 4,160,000 3,247,158 3,475,602
14 8 7 2 17.12 13.34 2.35 4,420,000 3,315,004 3,375,139
8 7 7 2 19.41 18.00 2.35 4,290,000 3,223,779 3,290,626
17 7 8 2 19.27 17.86 2.35 4,550,000 3,229,168 3,043,299
PARAMETERS
General Parameters
Deal arrival rate (1/yr) Weeks worked (1/yr) Cost of Delay ($/$/wk) Avg Deal Value ($)
100 49 0.01 4,000,000
Processing Parameters
Processing Stage: Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation Deal Completion
Process time (hrs/deal) 150 120 80 100
Resource Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional Senior Professional
Abandonment rate 50.00% 66.67% 80.00% 0.00%
Renege time (wks) 10000 10000 1 N/A
Resource Parameters
Resource: Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional
Unavailable for processing 25.00% 50.00% 66.67%
Hours worked per week 65 60 60
Cost per week 2500 5000 15000
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE - Q2e (Preliminary Evaluation abandonment rate reduced)
Decisions: Nr Employed Results
Mid- Avg Total Time for Cost of Exp. Value per
Scenario Junior Senior Avg Nr of Deals in Avg Nr of Deals Expected NPV
level Completed Deals Professionals Deal Completed
Pro Pro Process Completed (1/yr) ($/yr)
Pro (wks) ($/yr) ($)
16 7 5 4 19.62 15.82 3.17 5,330,000 3,215,302 4,860,428
7 7 5 3 19.64 15.69 2.91 4,550,000 3,214,302 4,793,624
13 8 5 3 18.87 14.27 2.91 4,680,000 3,245,352 4,753,883
15 7 6 3 17.87 13.90 2.91 4,810,000 3,285,298 4,740,002
10 6 5 4 25.93 27.41 3.17 5,200,000 2,962,772 4,190,070
4 6 5 3 25.96 27.29 2.91 4,420,000 2,961,771 4,189,546
19 6 6 4 24.16 25.62 3.17 5,460,000 3,033,768 4,155,083
9 6 6 3 24.18 25.49 2.91 4,680,000 3,032,768 4,135,925
18 6 7 3 23.77 25.08 2.91 4,940,000 3,049,226 3,923,768
2 7 5 2 19.68 15.41 2.34 3,770,000 3,212,714 3,740,996
20 6 5 5 25.92 27.46 3.26 5,980,000 2,963,270 3,693,057
5 8 5 2 18.91 13.98 2.34 3,900,000 3,243,764 3,683,588
6 7 6 2 17.91 13.62 2.34 4,030,000 3,283,710 3,646,978
12 8 6 2 17.13 12.19 2.34 4,160,000 3,314,760 3,589,570
11 9 5 2 18.67 13.56 2.34 4,030,000 3,253,048 3,575,293
14 7 7 2 17.50 13.20 2.34 4,290,000 3,300,169 3,425,456
1 6 5 2 26.00 27.00 2.34 3,640,000 2,960,184 3,280,606
3 6 6 2 24.22 25.21 2.34 3,900,000 3,031,180 3,186,588
8 6 7 2 23.81 24.80 2.34 4,160,000 3,047,639 2,965,067
17 6 8 2 23.68 24.67 2.34 4,420,000 3,052,749 2,717,015
PARAMETERS
General Parameters
Deal arrival rate (1/yr) Weeks worked (1/yr) Cost of Delay ($/$/wk) Avg Deal Value ($)
90 49 0.01 4,000,000
Processing Parameters
Processing Stage: Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation Deal Completion
Process time (hrs/deal) 150 120 80 100
Resource Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional Senior Professional
Abandonment rate 45.00% 66.67% 80.00% 0.00%
Renege time (wks) 10000 10000 1 N/A
Resource Parameters
Resource: Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional
Unavailable for processing 25.00% 50.00% 66.67%
Hours worked per week 65 60 60
Cost per week 2500 5000 15000
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES
PARAMETERS
General Parameters
Deal arrival rate (1/yr) Weeks worked (1/yr) Cost of Delay ($/$/wk) Avg Deal Value ($)
100 49 0.01 4,000,000
Processing Parameters
Processing Stage: Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation Deal Completion
Process time (hrs/deal) 150 120 80 100
Resource Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional Senior Professional
Abandonment rate 48.92% 66.67% 80.00% 0.00%
Renege time (wks) 10000 10000 1 N/A
Resource Parameters
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Unavailable for processing 25.00% 50.00% 66.67%
Hours worked per week 65 60 60
Cost per week 2500 5000 15000
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed 8 5 3
MAJOR RESULTS
Deals and Financials
Avg Total Time for Avg Nr of Deals Avg Nr of Deals Completed Cost of Professionals Exp. Value per Deal Expected NPV
Completed Deals (wks) in Process (1/yr) ($/yr) Completed ($) ($/yr)
21.15725856 19.26345637 2.976454193 4,680,000 3,153,710 4,706,872
DETAILED RESULTS
Accounting for Abandonment and Reneging
Counts Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation
Nr Starting (1/yr) 100 51.08433 17.02811
Nr Reneging (1/yr) 0 0 2.145839037
Nr Finishing (1/yr) 100 51.08433 14.88227096
Nr Abandoning (1/yr) 48.91567 34.05622 11.90581677
Nr to Next Stage (1/yr) 51.08433 17.02811 2.976454193
Probability distributions of Deals Completed and NPV Earned in a year
k Pr(Deals Completed = k) Pr(Deals Completed > k) NPV Earned ($)
0 0.050973255 0.949026745 ( 4,680,000)
1 0.151719559 0.797307186 ( 1,526,290)
2 0.225793159 0.571514027 1,627,419
3 0.224020998 0.347493029 4,781,129
4 0.16669706 0.180795969 7,934,839
5 0.099233232 0.081562737 11,088,548
6 0.049227195 0.032335542 14,242,258
7 0.020931784 0.011403757 17,395,968
8 0.007787812 0.003615945 20,549,677
9 0.002575563 0.001040382 23,703,387
10 0.000766605 0.000273778 26,857,097
PMF of Deals Completed Complementary CDF of Deals Completed
0.25 1
Pr(Deals Completed > k)
0.9
Pr(Deals Completed = k)
0.2 0.8
0.7
0.15 0.6
0.5
0.1 0.4
0.3
0.05 0.2
0.1
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
k k
Calculation of Senior Professional Time per Deal
Stage Negotiation Deal Completion Average per Deal
Nr of deals 1 0.2
Avg Proc. Time (wks) 4 5 5
Queueing Model Parameters
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Deal arrival rate (1/wk) 2.040816327 1.042537347 0.347512449
Avg Proc. Time (wks) 3.076923077 4 5
Avg Proc. Time for completed
3.076923077 4 9
deals (wks)
Minimum Resrouce Levels
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Minimum Needed 8 5 2
Queueing Models
Resource: Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
M/M/s/I - Det
Parameters
Arrival Rate (1/week) 1.020408163 1.042537347 0.347512449
Service Rate (1/week) 0.325 0.25 0.2
Nr of Servers 4 5 3
Renege Time (week) 10000 10000 1
Results
Load Factor 0.784929356 0.834029878 0.579187415
Fraction Not Served 0 0 0.126017452
Thruput (1/week) 1.020408163 1.042537347 0.303719816
Utilization 0.784929356 0.834029878 0.506199693
Remaining Results for Served Only Served Only Served Only
Avg Nr in System 5.218458768 7.293622783 1.53291605
Avg Nr in Queue 2.078741343 3.123473395 0.014316972
Time in System (week) 5.114089593 6.996030219 5.047138749
Wait in Queue (week) 2.037166516 2.996030219 0.047138749
Pr{Wait=0} 0.430424872 0.378435622 0.901585488
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE - Q2g (Preliminary Evaluation w/Sector Specialization and Varying Abandonment Rate)
Decisions: Nr Employed Results
Junior Mid Senior Avg Total Time for Cost of Exp. Value per
Scenario Avg Nr of Deals in Avg Nr of Deals Expected NPV
8 5 3 Completed Deals Professionals Deal Completed
Process Completed (1/yr) ($/yr)
Abandonment Rate (wks) ($/yr) ($)
1 50.00% 18.58 14.03 2.70 4,680,000 3,256,979 4,114,612
2 49.50% 18.65 14.16 2.72 4,680,000 3,253,883 4,175,480
3 49.00% 18.74 14.30 2.74 4,680,000 3,250,584 4,235,215
* 48.91567% 18.75 14.32 2.75 4,680,000 3,250,006 4,245,174
4 48.50% 18.82 14.44 2.76 4,680,000 3,247,063 4,293,757
5 48.00% 18.92 14.59 2.78 4,680,000 3,243,300 4,351,037
6 47.50% 19.02 14.75 2.81 4,680,000 3,239,272 4,406,977
7 47.00% 19.13 14.92 2.83 4,680,000 3,234,952 4,461,488
8 46.50% 19.24 15.10 2.85 4,680,000 3,230,311 4,514,472
9 46.00% 19.37 15.29 2.87 4,680,000 3,225,315 4,565,812
10 45.50% 19.50 15.49 2.89 4,680,000 3,219,924 4,615,379
11 45.00% 19.65 15.70 2.91 4,680,000 3,214,093 4,663,019
12 44.50% 19.81 15.93 2.93 4,680,000 3,207,771 4,708,557
13 44.00% 19.98 16.18 2.95 4,680,000 3,200,896 4,751,788
14 43.50% 20.17 16.44 2.97 4,680,000 3,193,396 4,792,471
15 43.00% 20.37 16.73 2.99 4,680,000 3,185,187 4,830,321
16 42.50% 20.60 17.04 3.01 4,680,000 3,176,169 4,864,999
17 42.00% 20.84 17.38 3.02 4,680,000 3,166,221 4,896,100
18 41.50% 21.12 17.76 3.04 4,680,000 3,155,198 4,923,130
19 41.00% 21.43 18.17 3.06 4,680,000 3,142,921 4,945,490
20 40.50% 21.77 18.63 3.08 4,680,000 3,129,171 4,962,439
21 40.00% 22.16 19.15 3.10 4,680,000 3,113,675 4,973,051
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES
PARAMETERS
General Parameters
Deal arrival rate (1/yr) Weeks worked (1/yr) Cost of Delay ($/$/wk) Avg Deal Value ($)
100 49 0.01 4,000,000
Processing Parameters
Processing Stage: Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation Deal Completion
Process time (hrs/deal) 150 120 80 100
Resource Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional Senior Professional
Abandonment rate VARIES 66.67% 80.00% 0.00%
Renege time (wks) 10000 10000 1 N/A
Resource Parameters
Resource: Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional
Unavailable for processing 25.00% 50.00% 66.67%
Hours worked per week 65 60 60
Cost per week 2500 5000 15000
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed 8 5 3
PARAMETERS
General Parameters
Deal arrival rate (1/yr) Weeks worked (1/yr) Cost of Delay ($/$/wk) Avg Deal Value ($)
90 49 0.01 4,000,000
Processing Parameters
Processing Stage: Preliminary Evaluation Due Diligence Negotiation Deal Completion
Process time (hrs/deal) 150 120 80 100
Resource Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional Senior Professional
Abandonment rate 50.00% 66.67% 80.00% 0.00%
Renege time (wks) 10000 10000 1 N/A
Resource Parameters
Resource: Junior Professional Mid-level Professional Senior Professional
Unavailable for processing 25.00% 50.00% 66.67%
Hours worked per week 65 60 60
Cost per week 2500 5000 15000
DECISIONS
Resources Employed
Resource Junior Pro Mid-level Pro Senior Pro
Nr Employed VARIES VARIES VARIES