Reservoir Engineering

Chapter 12 – Decline Curve Analysis

Arron Singhe

2000
oil rate
Expon. (oil rate)
1500

y = 1784.5e-0.0503x
Oil Rate

1000

500

0
0 10 Time 20 30
 Introduction
Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION OUTLINE
BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE INTRODUCTION

CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE CURVES

APPLICATION OF DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS (DCA)

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Decline Curve Analysis
A B C D E F
Property Status Pre-drilling
1st
Well
INTRODUCTION Period
Completed
Production Operations
Development Abandonment
BACKGROUND Period
Study Method
TYPES OF DECLINE Analog
Volumetric
CURVES Performance
Simulation Studies
APPLICATION OF DCA Material Balance Studies
Decline Trend Analyses
Range of Estimates
Actual Recovery

Ultimate Recovery
Range of Recovery Estimates

Production Profile
Cumulative

Cumulative Production
Log Production Rate

Rate

Relative Risk Time

High
Risk

Low

3 A B C D E F
 Introduction
Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE What is decline curve analysis?

CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA
– Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is a simple, graphical method
that uses extrapolation of performance trends to obtain
• the remaining oil reserves
• the ultimate oil recovery or
• the remaining production life of a well, field, etc.

2000
oil rate
Expon. (oil rate)
1500

y = 1784.5e-0.0503x
Oil Rate

1000

500

0
0 10 Time 20 30

4
 Introduction
Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE What is decline curve analysis?

CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA
– A curve fit of the past production performance is done using
certain standard curves.
– This curve fit is then extrapolated to predict future performance
and to estimate recoverable reserves

– Conventional Decline Curve Analysis can be used only when

the production history is long enough that a trend can be
identified.

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE The basic assumption:

CURVES – Whatever causes controlled the trend of a curve in the past will
APPLICATION OF DCA continue to govern its trend in the future in a uniform manner

– The extrapolation procedure is therefore of empirical nature

– The reserve estimates obtained by DCA are limited to those
recoverable under the existing conditions

DCA cannot be applied across recovery phases

– e.g. initiating a water-flood would definitely change the causes
that controlled the trend of the curve too much

– DCA should be applied for reservoirs under boundary restricted

flow conditions

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 Introduction
Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Restrictions

CURVES
– This method is not based on physical principles
APPLICATION OF DCA
– It can only be applied as long as the mechanical conditions of
the well (completions, production method, ...) are not changed
– Assumes that the driving forces in the reservoir are not
changed during the time.

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
The instantaneous or current decline rate
APPLICATION OF DCA
– which is a continuous function that is used in the
mathematical derivation of the decline curve

– it is the negative slope of the curve (log q) vs. time and

hence defined as
d ln q dq / q
D 
dt dt
– D is the decline rate expressed in “% per year”.

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION TYPES OF DECLINE CURVES

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Three types of curves have been identified:

CURVES
– Exponential
APPLICATION OF DCA
– Hyperbolic
– Harmonic
It is implicitly assumed that the factors causing the decline
continue, unchanged, during the forecast period.
– Reservoir conditions
– Operating conditions

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION TYPES OF DECLINE CURVES

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES Exponential Decline (Constant Percentage Decline)
APPLICATION OF DCA – the nominal decline rate D is a constant
d ln q dq / dt
D   const
dt q
– which after integration leads to:
t q

  Ddt   d ln q
0 qi

 Dt  ln q  ln qi
q  qi e  Dt

– Plotting q versus log(time) will give a straight line with slope D

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION TYPES OF DECLINE CURVES

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Harmonic Decline

CURVES
– the nominal decline rate D is proportional to the production rate
APPLICATION OF DCA
(i.e. it is a special case of the hyperbolic decline where b = 1)

dq / dt
D  Kq
q
– which after integration leads to:
qi
q
1  Di t
– where Di is the initial nominal decline and K is a constant which
can be determined under initial conditions

Di
K
qi

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION TYPES OF DECLINE CURVES

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES Hyperbolic Decline
APPLICATION OF DCA
– the nominal decline rate D is proportional to a fractional power b
of the production rate

dq / dt
D  Kq b
q
– which after integration leads to:
q  qi 1  bDi t 
1/ b

– where Di is the initial nominal decline and K is a constant which

can be determined under initial conditions.

Di
K
qi

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION TYPES OF DECLINE CURVES

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION FLOW RATE COMPARISON

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Relationships for production rates:

CURVES
– exponential decline (n = 0)
APPLICATION OF DCA

qt  qi e  Dt

– hyperbolic decline (0<= n <= 1)

qt  qi 1  nDi t 
1 / n

– harmonic decline (n = 1)

qi
qt 
1  Di t

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION COMPARISON

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Relationships for cumulative production with rate:

CURVES
– exponential decline (n = 0)
APPLICATION OF DCA

qi  qt
Np 
D
– hyperbolic decline (0<= n <= 1)

qi  qi 
n 1

Np      1
n  1  Di  qt  
– harmonic decline (n = 1)

qi  qi 
Np   ln 
Di  qt 
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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION PRINCIPAL EQUATIONS - OVERVIEW

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Type Exponential Hyperbolic Harmonic

CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA
n 0 1

qi
qt  qi 1  nDi t  qt 
1 / n
Rate qt  qi e  Dt
1  Di t

Cum. Prod q  qt qi  q  n 1  q q 
Np  i Np    i   1 N p  i  ln i 
with rate D n  1  Di  qt   Di  qt 

Cum Prod
N p  i 1  e  Dt 
q
 1  nDi t  n  1
n 1
 ln1  Di t 
qi qi
Np  Np 
with time D n  1  Di   Di

1  qi   1  qi  
n
1 q 
  t     1
Prod. time t  ln i  t   1
D  qt  nDi  qt   Di  qt  


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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION APPLICATION OF DCA

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE DCA is mainly used for

CURVES
– production forecasting and
APPLICATION OF DCA
– reserve estimation during primary production
DCA can be applied to basically any well and any reservoir
because
– it is solely based on production data and
– production data is the only data that is always available

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION APPLICATION OF DCA

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES – DCA has been used since the 1920s. Back then the
APPLICATION OF DCA
evaluation was purely graphical.

Nowadays DCA is applied with the help of

– curve fitting tools in spreadsheet programs or
– whole DCA modules in production database programs
Advanced DCA features in today’s production databases greatly
speed up the application
– e.g. auto decline fitting
Furthermore is it possible to evaluate multiple performance
trends
– e.g. oil production vs. time and water cut vs. cumulative
production is extrapolated to a minimum oil rate and a
maximum water cut, whichever is reached first

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION APPLICATION OF DCA

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE The two main types of curves used for DCA are:
CURVES
– rate vs. time
APPLICATION OF DCA
– rate vs. cumulative production
Other type of curves that are also applied, but mostly in a
secondary manner (i.e. as a measure to determine when the
economic limit is reached):
– water cut vs. time
– water cut vs. cumulative production
– water rate vs. time etc.

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.1

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE The following DCA has been fitted to the well production data
CURVES
– Oil rate in STB/d, cum. Oil in STB
APPLICATION OF DCA
– Time in months
10000 0.6

oil rate
Expon. (oil rate)
0.5
y = 7E-05x - 1.6023

y = 1796.4e-0.0479x 0.4

Water Cut
Oil Rate

1000 0.3

0.2

0.1

100 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 3500
Time Cum ulative Oil Production

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 Introduction
Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.1

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
1. What type of decline is it ?
APPLICATION OF DCA
2. What is the nominal decline D ?
3. When is the economic limit of 100 bbl/d reached ?
4. What is the estimated ultimate recovery for this economic limit ?
5. What is the estimated ultimate recovery if a water cut of 0.9 is
used as the economic limit ?

6. What is the estimated ultimate recovery if both economic limits

are considered ?

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE - ANSWERS

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
1. What type of decline is it ?
exponential decline
APPLICATION OF DCA

2. What is the nominal decline D ?

the nominal decline is given from the decline curve,
D = 0.0479 or 4.8 % per month

3. When is the economic limit of 100 bbl/d reached ?

q  1796.4e0.0479t

1  100 
t ln    60.3 months
 0.0479  1796.4 

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE - ANSWERS

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA
4. What is the estimated ultimate recovery for this economic limit ?
qi  q 1796.4  100
N p max    30.417  1077220bbl
D 0.0479
5. What is the estimated ultimate recovery if a water cut of 0.9 is
used as the economic limit ?
the curve fit gave the following equation
watercut  7 105 (cum.oil )  1.6023
0.9  1.6023
N p max  5
 35747 bbl
7 10
6. What is the estimated ultimate recovery if both economic limits
are considered ?
It is the smaller one of the two, therefore Npmax = 35747 bbl

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.2

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE Given the following production history

CURVES

APPLICATION OF DCA
– What type of decline is this? Time
[Months]
Rate
[STB/day]
– Estimate D and b! 0 350
1 345
2 340
3 335
4 330
5 325
6 320
7 315
8 310
9 306
10 301
11 297
12 292
13 288
14 284
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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.3

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
– A well with an exponential decline of 0.01 [1/month] produces at
150 STB/day
APPLICATION OF DCA

– What will the production rate be in 2 years?

– What will the cumulative production be in those 2 years?
– How long will it take to reach the economic limit of 10 STB/day?

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.4

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
– A well with a harmonic decline of 0.01 [1/month] produces at
150 STB/day
APPLICATION OF DCA

– What will the production rate be in 2 years?

– What will the cumulative production be in those 2 years?
– How long will it take to reach the economic limit of 10 STB/day?

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.5

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
– A well with a hyperbolic decline of 0.01 [1/month] and n = 0.6
produces at 150 STB/day
APPLICATION OF DCA

– What will the production rate be in 2 years?

– What will the cumulative production be in those 2 years?
– How long will it take to reach the economic limit of 10 STB/day?

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.6

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
– The AX-1 reservoir has been producing oil for over 30 years from
the Bartlesville (Oklahoma) sands at a depth of 300 - 400 m.
APPLICATION OF DCA Between 1985 and 1988, 42 wells were on production.
– The field can be operated economically as long as production is
in excess of 1 m3/day per well. Eight in-fill wells were drilled in
early 1989, and another 25 wells were stimulated with acid. This
resulted in an increase in oil production.
– The following table is a record of the daily production from the
reservoir between January 1985 and December 1989.
– Determine what the incremental cumulative production would be
at reservoir abandonment following the drilling of the in-fill wells
and the stimulation of the others.

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Decline Curve Analysis

INTRODUCTION EXAMPLE 12.6

BACKGROUND

TYPES OF DECLINE
CURVES
Time Wells on production Oil rate
APPLICATION OF DCA [Months] [m 3 /day]
1985-Jan. 0 42 210
April 3 42 198
July 6 42 187
Oct. 9 42 177
1986-Jan. 12 42 167
April 15 42 157
July 18 42 149
Oct. 21 42 141
1987-Jan. 24 42 133
April 27 42 125
July 30 42 118
Oct. 33 42 112
1988-Jan. 36 42 106
April 39 42 100
July 42 42 94
Oct. 45 42 89
1989-Jan. 48 50 150
April 51 50 136
July 54 50 124
Oct. 57 50 113
Dec. 60 50 103
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