ACTUAL FORECAST F.E. ABS. F.E. SQ E. P. E.

FORECAST
Week Sales NAÏVE 2WK MA
1 17
2 21 17 4 4 16 19.04762
3 19 21 -2 2 4 10.52632 19
4 23 19 4 4 16 17.3913 20
5 18 23 -5 5 25 27.77778 21
6 16 18 -2 2 4 12.5 20.5
7 20 16 4 4 16 20 17
8 18 20 -2 2 4 11.11111 18
9 22 18 4 4 16 18.18182 19
10 20 22 -2 2 4 10 20
11 15 20 -5 5 25 33.33333 21
12 22 15 7 7 49 31.81818 17.5
13 22 MAD MSE MAPE
3.727273 16.27273 19.24431

MAD MSE MAPE

NAÏVE 3.73 16.27 19.24
2WK M.A. 2.70 11.25 14.69
5WK. M.A. 2.40 7.41 12.51
E.S. 2.60 8.98 14.16
T.P. 2.06 5.85 11.09
F.E. ABS. F.E. SQ E. P. E. FORECAST F.E ABS.F.E. SQ E. P. E.
5 WK. M.A.

#N/A
0 0 0 0 #N/A
3 3 9 13.04348 #N/A
-3 3 9 16.66667 #N/A
-4.5 4.5 20.25 28.125 19.6 -3.6 3.6 12.96 18.36735
3 3 9 15 19.4 0.6 0.6 0.36 3.092784
0 0 0 0 19.2 -1.2 1.2 1.44 6.25
3 3 9 13.63636 19 3 3 9 15.78947
0 0 0 0 18.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 6.382979
-6 6 36 40 19.2 -4.2 4.2 17.64 21.875
4.5 4.5 20.25 20.45455 19 3 3 9 15.78947
MAD MSE MAPE 19.4 MAD MSE MAPE
2.7 11.25 14.69261 2.4 7.405714 12.50672
FORECAST F.E ABS.F.E. SQ E. P. E. FORECAST F.E ABS.F.E.
E.S. T.P.
#N/A 19.11538 -2.11538 2.115385
17 4 4 16 23.53 19.13986 1.86014 1.86014
17.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 6.74 19.16434 -0.16434 0.164336
18.04 5.0 5.0 24.6 27.49 19.18881 3.811189 3.811189
19.032 -1.0 1.0 1.1 5.42 19.21329 -1.21329 1.213287
18.8256 -2.8 2.8 8.0 15.01 19.23776 -3.23776 3.237762
18.26048 1.7 1.7 3.0 9.53 19.26224 0.737762 0.737762
18.60838 -0.6 0.6 0.4 3.27 19.28671 -1.28671 1.286713
18.48671 3.5 3.5 12.3 19.00 19.31119 2.688811 2.688811
19.18937 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.22 19.33566 0.664336 0.664336
19.35149 -4.4 4.4 18.9 22.49 19.36014 -4.36014 4.36014
18.48119 3.5 3.5 12.4 19.04 19.38462 2.615385 2.615385
19.18496 MAD MSE MAPE MAD
2.596339 8.982231 14.15892 2.062937
 SQ E. P. E.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
4.474852 12.44344
3.46012 8.857809 Regression Statistics
0.027006 0.864925 Multiple R 0.03492
14.52516 16.57039 R Square 0.001219
1.472065 6.740482 Adjusted R -0.09866
10.4831 20.23601 Standard E 2.648855
0.544293 3.688811 Observatio 12
1.655631 7.148407
7.229706 12.22187 ANOVA
0.441342 3.321678 df SS MS F Significance F
19.01082 29.0676 Regression 1 0.085664 0.085664 0.012209 0.914203
6.840237 11.88811 Residual 10 70.16434 7.016434
MSE MAPE Total 11 70.25
5.847028 11.08746
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 19.09091 1.630258 11.71036 3.67E-07 15.45847 22.72335
Week 0.024476 0.221508 0.110495 0.914203 -0.46908 0.518027
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
15.45847 22.72335
-0.46908 0.518027