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Q3‐ How will the international community respond?
ANSWER: It is clear that allies and strategic partners of the United States will support
condemnation of North Korea. The US and South Korea have already announced
military exercises as a demonstration of their unity and resolve.
The international community will react with mixed messages. The international
community is incapable of condemning North Korea for provocative actions, such as
the unprovoked sinking of a South Korean frigate in March and the shelling of
innocent civilians. The majority of the international community will adopt the tactic
of burying their heads in the sand and waiting for the UN Security Council to act. But
since China holds the power of veto, the UN Security Council will be unable to take
strong action.
The reaction of the international community reveals the weakness of presently
existing regional security architecture centred on ASEAN. The most effective body for
handing the current crisis is the five members of the Six Party Talks (minus North
Korea).
In sum, at the present time the international community is divided. The US, South
Korea and their allies and supporters would like to demonstrate deterrence and
threaten retaliation for what are literally acts of war by North Korea. Most other
members of the international community are afraid to use force or the threat of
force to deter aggression. They prefer a softer, diplomatic response, making
concessions to North Korean in the hopes this will moderate its behavior.