ABS Risk Management Simulator v1.21 ?

Help
1 Account Size 100,000.00
Value at Risk (VAR) % 1.00% VAR %. OK.
Risk Planning
Value at Risk (VAR) Amount 1,000.00
2 Entry Price 10.0000
Stop Loss Price 9.6000
Measure The Target Price 11.5000 8K Rule. OK.
Risk Reward
Ratio Stop Loss % -5.19%
Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) 2.65
3 Estimated Positon Size % 19.27%
1:2 Risk Reward Ratio (RRR)
Estimated Position Size 19,267.82 or better. OK.
Position Sizing
Suggested No. of Shares 1,900

Total Bought Market/ Average Market (+/-) % % Port

4 Simulation Output Shares Price Sold Price Price Total Cost Value Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Damage/Recovery

Case 1: Lose - Stop Loss Hit 1,900 10.00 9.60 10.0295 19,056.05 18,076.75 -979.30 -5.14% -0.98%

Case 2: Lose - Loss by Slippage 1,900 10.00 10.00 10.0295 19,056.05 18,829.95 -226.10 -1.19% -0.23%
Simulation
Case 3: Neutral - Breakeven 1,900 10.00 10.12 10.0295 19,056.05 19,054.03 -2.02 -0.01% 0.00%

Case 4: Win - TP Hit 1,900 10.00 11.50 10.0295 19,056.05 21,654.44 2,598.39 13.64% 2.60%
 Tranche Calculator

Total Average Entry Average Exit Average Total Cost Market (+/-) %
Shares Price Price Price Value Gain/Loss Gain/Loss

3,500 9.2800 10.3286 9.3074 32,575.82 35,826.46 3,250.64 9.98%

Buying Total Bought Total Selling Total Markt/Sold Total

Tranche No. Shares Price Amount Tranche No. Shares Price Amount
1 1,000 9.1000 9,100 1 1,200 10.0000 12,000
2 1,200 9.3000 11,160 2 2,300 10.5000 24,150
3 1,300 9.4000 12,220 3 0
4 0 4 0
5 0 5 0
6 0 6 0
7 0 7 0
8 0 8 0
9 0 9 0
10 0 10 0
11 0 11 0
12 0 12 0
13 0 13 0
14 0 14 0
15 0 15 0
16 0 16 0
17 0 17 0
18 0 18 0
19 0 19 0
20 0 20 0

Balance Shares 0
 Trading Diaries
Trade Statistics
No. Ratio
Total Win 1 33.33%
Total Lose 2 66.67%
Total Trades 3 100%

Initial Capital Total Equity G/L % G/L

14,900.00 -10,589.66 -25,489.66 -171.07%

Date Date Stock Total Bought Market/ Average

Trade No. SN Total Cost
Bought Sold Code Shares Price Sold Price Price

010 1 18-Jun-19 28-Jun-19 ABA 2,000 0.7900 1.0500 0.7913 1,582.56

016 2 18-Jun-19 1-Jul-19 PHEN 5,000 2.6200 2.3800 2.6252 13,126.11
017 3 1-Jul-19 2-Jul-19 CAB 80 160.1000 160.5723 12,845.78
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a
 ..: ABS Trading Strategy :..
A - AOTS+
B - Breakout of Resistance
S - Surge of Volume
RSI > 70
Money Growers #UPTREND2018 G
(1) AOTS with at least six (6) month
(2) Maximum of 50% of Total Equit
(3) Maximum of 4 position in portfo
(4) Maximum of -6% cutloss point f
(5) +25% gain at the end of challen

% Port Port Month Beg.

Market (+/-) % Trade Days Damage/Reco % Port Bal. Upon
Value Gain/Loss Gain/Loss Status Hold Allocation Entering on Trade
very
2,064.79 482.23 30.47% WIN 10 0.00% 0.00%
-13,126.11 -100.00% LOSE 13 0.00% 0.00%
-12,845.78 -100.00% LOSE 1 0.00% 0.00%
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Money Growers #UPTREND2018 General Rules
1) AOTS with at least six (6) months breakout
2) Maximum of 50% of Total Equity
3) Maximum of 4 position in portfolio
4) Maximum of -6% cutloss point for each position
5) +25% gain at the end of challenge

Dividend Time Frame Trade Set-Up Trade Objective

Entry Reason/Trigger (Remarks) Exit Reason/Trigger (Remarks)
Overall Remarks
 Trade Analytics v1.1
Kelly Criterion Hit Ratio
Overview of Trade Analytics
Number of Total Trades 3 Edge Ratio RRR

0.04 1:0.02
Net P/L ($) -25,489.66
Net P/L (%) -171.07%
Average Win (%) 30.47%
Average Loss (%) -100.00%
Average Trade Length (Days) 8
Number of Win Trades 1
Number of Loss Trades 2
Total Win Amount 482.23 Top 5 Gainers Top 5 LOSERS
Total Loss Amount -25,971.89
Win Rate ($) 482.23
Burn Rate ($) -12,985.95
Hit Ratio (%) 33.33%
Lose Ratio (%) 66.67%
CAB
Edge Ratio(x) 0.04
Gain vs. Loss Ratio ( RRR ) 1:0.02 0 ABA PHEN

Kelly % -3557.19% ### 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 12700127501280012850129001295013000130501310013150

Abraham Avila Jr. Top 5 Gainers

Developer, ABS Trading Strategy Rank No. Stock Code Set-up Gain ($) Gain (%) Port Recovery (%)
https://www.facebook.com/absavilajr 1 ABA 0 482 30.47% 0.00%
abs.mailbox@yahoo.com 2
abs.tradingstrategy@gmail.com 3
4
ABS Trade Analytics 5
© 2019. Free to share.
Top 5 Losers
Rank No. Stock Code Set-up Gain ($) Gain (%) Port Damage (%)
1 PHEN 0 -13,126.11 -100.00% 0.00%
2 CAB 0 -12,845.78 -100.00% 0.00%
3
4
5
Trade Set-up: AOTS+ (Buy on Breakout)
Trade Objective:Trend Following (Exit on 20SMA Snaps)

I. MARKET
·         2nd liners
·         Basuras (Penny Stock)
·         No illiquid stocks
·         No blue chips

II. TIME FRAME

1.    Looking at Big Picture: [Weekly Parallel Universe Alignment (PUA)]
2.    Entry/Exit: Daily

III. RISK MANAGEMENT

1.    Risk Threshold: Not risking more than -1 to -2% of total portfolio per allocation
2.    Stop loss – Around -3% to -5% stop loss
3.    Risk/Reward Ratio – 1:2 or better
4.    Other Rules: Position sizing and allocations
·         NO ALL-IN;
·         Minimum of 8K pesos
·         Maximum of 3 positions
·         Maximum of 2 trades per day
·         Max of 33% per allocation*
IV. SET-UP
Price > 20MA > 50MA > 100MA and MAs are pointing higher (2 o’clock*)
RSI(14) >= 70. The steeper MAs means strong trends, flat MAs means weak trends.

Technical Indicators:
1.    Simple Moving Averages (SMA or MA)
·         SMA20 (Red)
·         SMA50 (Pink)
·         SMA100 (Blue)
2.    Relative Strength Index (RSI)
·         RSI 14 Period
·         RSI 70 upper limit; RSI 30 lower limit
3.    Darvas Box
·         ATH
·         Multi-year
·         52wk High
·         6months
·         3months (consolidation)

Screener/Filter (AOTS+):
·         MA (20 Days) = Price is above average
·         MA (50 Days) = Moving Average below SMA 20
·         MA (100 Days) = Moving Average below SMA 50
·         Value Average (10 Days) = Value Average >= 40M
V. ENTRY

Entry Point (Parameters)

·         1st Tranche:
§  Breakout from at least 3 months consolidation (Primary consideration)
§  Breakout from the resistance (Secondary consideration)
o   ATH
o   Multi-year
o   52wk High
o   6months
§  10% range from entry point to nearest resistance or better
·         2nd Tranche:
§  Longest candle in past 10 trading days
§  Price closed above pivot point of day’s range (50%+)
§  Breakout must supported by volume
Entry Point (Triggers):
1.    1st tranche: 50% (2-3 ticks above breakout point)
2.    2nd tranche: 50% (End of Day (EOD)) 2:45pm, – 3:15pm

VI. STOP LOSS

a.   -3% to -5% per position
b.   When price break the 2-3 ticks from support
c.   Execute a or b which ever triggered first

VII. PROFIT TAKING - When Trail stop hitted, sell half (lock profit)
a.   Healthy Trend: 20SMA trail (last resort 50SMA trail)
b.   Price is in Parabolic: Trailing stop

Image credits to ZFT

SUMMARY
Parameters:
ü  AOTS+ (Better if PUA)
ü  Breakout of resistance
ü  Surge of Volume
ü  RSI Above 70

ü  1st Tranche
·         10% range from entry point to nearest resistance or better

ü  2nd Tranche
·         Longest candle in past 10 trading days
·         Price closed above pivot point of day’s range (50%+)

Buying Trigger:
·         1st tranche: If all criteria met Then Buy 2-3 ticks above breakout point
·         2nd trance: If all criteria met Then Buy on near/EOD

Selling Trigger
·         20SMA Snaps: Sell Half
·         20SMA breach at EOD: Sell All position
SAMPLE TRADING PLAN

Sample Chart
Note: This is old chart from version 1.0

(1) Trade Set-up: AOTS+ (Buy on Breakout)

(2) Trade Objective: Trend Following (Exit on 20SMA Snaps)
(3) Market 2nd Liner
(4) Timeframe Daily Chart
(5) Entry/Exit
Average Entry Price 7.0000
Stop loss Price 6.7000
Initia Target Price 9.0000
Risk/Reward Ratio 6.67
Position Sizing 1% VAR
Time of Execution 1st tranche buy on breakout; 2nd tranche EOD
(6) Exit Plan
Exit at stop loss if worst scenario happen
Lock profit if show any weakness
Sell when SMA20 snapped at EOD
(7) Overall Remarks
Exit at stop loss if worst scenario happen
Lock profit if show any weakness
Sell when SMA20 snapped at EOD

DISCLAIMER
We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this trading strategy. Any Action you take upon the
information on this module is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be able liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use
of our trading strategy.
 ABS Risk Management Simulator

Risk Management is the process used protect your trading account from the danger of losing all your account balance. The risk is defined
as the likeliness a loss will occur. If you manage the risk you have an excellent opportunity of making money in the stock market.

Basically, risk management it’s just a method to control the risk exposure when trading.

Risk management it’s like the foundation of a house. When you build a house you first start with the foundation layers and only then you
start building the walls and the roof and everything else. On that note, risk management is the foundation of a successful trading plan.
We can basically break risk management foundation into 3 layers:
1. Risk Planning
2. Measure Risk Reward Ratio
3. Position Sizing

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

= Risk Planning =

Planning your risk will help you maintain consistency with the risk we take trading the markets. Becoming a consistent trader is one of
the biggest hurdles that you need to conquer and it can only be done right from day one if you plan your risk exposure.
So, when it comes down to planning your risk we need to be able to answer one simple question: How much are you willing to risk per
trade?
Well, ultimately, the answer to this question is a personal preference and it comes down to your risk tolerance. However, professional
money managers recommend not risking more than 2% on any particular trading idea.
The main advantage of the 2% risk rule is that you’ll be able to take more trades at any particular time. Conversely, the more risk per
trade you take intuitively you’ll be prone to make fewer trades.
The risk per trade is something that you’ll probably begin to refine over time, but don’t try to ramp it up too fast until you’ve got some
good trading experience behind you.
How to determine the risk amount is simple:

Formula:

Value at Risk (VAR) Amount = Account Size * VAR %

If your account balance is Php 100,000.00 and your risk tolerance is 1% your risk amount is Php 1,000.00 per trade.
Example:
Value at Risk (VAR) Amount = Php 100,000.00 * 1%
Value at Risk (VAR) Amount = Php 1,000.00

By calculating the risk amount we can ascertain how much we’re going to lose if the trade goes against us. In our particular case the
maximum loss would be Php 1,000.00.
Risk planning will help you better control the mental part of trading because you already know in advance how much you’re going to
make if the trade goes in your favor or how much you’re going to lose if the trade goes against you.

By using RMS, just simple follow the steps below to calculate your Value at Risk (VAR) Amount:
Step 1a. Set your account size or capital.
Step 1b. Set the % of capital to risk per trade.
Output: Calculated Value at Risk Amount.

Note: For newbie VAR% must not exceed to 2% per trade.

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

= Measure The Risk Reward Ratio =

The trading risk reward ratio simply determines the potential loss versus the potential profit on any given trade.

How to measure the risk reward ratio?

In order to determine the risk to reward ratio, you simply need to divide the potential “Total Risk” to the potential “Total Reward:”
The risk is simply defined as the price distance between your entry and your stop loss.
The reward is simply defined as the price distance between your entry and your take profit.

In essence, in order to calculate the risk reward ratio you only need three components:
1. Entry Price
2. Stop Loss Price
3. Target Price
In order to determine the risk to reward ratio, you simply need to divide the potential “Total Risk” to the potential “Total Reward:”

Formula:

Risk Reward Ratio = Total Risk / Total Reward

In order to get Total Risk you need to apply this formula:

Total Risk = Stop Loss Price - Entry Price

Example:
Total Risk = 12.90 - 13.50
Total Risk = -0.60

In order to get Total Reward you need to apply this formula:

Total Reward = Target Price - Entry Price

Example:
Total Reward = 15.20 - 13.50
Total Reward = 1.70

Risk Reward Ratio = (Stop Loss Price - Entry Price) / (Target Price - Entry Price)
Risk Reward Ratio = (12.90 - 13.50) / (15.20 - 13.50)
Risk Reward Ratio = -0.60 / 1.70 - or -
Risk Reward Ratio = 1 : 2.83

Note:
- The Risk Reward Ratio in above example were based on Entry Price, Stop Loss Price, and Target Price.
- Trading Fees were not included.

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

We want to have a strategy with a higher trading risk reward ratio as this will ensure our profitability in the long term.

For example, if your risk to reward ratio is 1:2, it means your win rate has to be above 33% to make money in the long-term (see Figure
below)

By using RMS, just simple follow the steps below to calculate your Risk Reward Ratio:
Step 2a. Set your entry price. *
Step 2b. Set your stop loss price. *
Step 2c. Set your target price. *
Output Calculated stop loss. **
Output Calculated Risk Reward Ratio. **

* Entry Price, Stop Loss Price, and Target Price are base on the set-up on your chart.
** Stop Loss % and Risk Reward Ratio in RMS were calculated based on Suggested No. of Shares including Trading Fees.

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

= Position Sizing =

Position sizing answers another important question, namely: How big a particular trade should be?
Is it arbitrary?
Or should you always be buying 5 lots or 1 lot?
There are several ways you can determine how big that position should be. It’s entirely under your control to determine how big your
position should be.

In order to be able to calculate our position sizing we need to know three things:
1. Account size.
2. How much of that account you want to risk – percentage-wise. We have examined this under the Risk planning section.
3. Stop Loss %-wise
The basic formula for calculating your position size is:

Formula:

Position Size = (Account Size * VAR%) / Stop Loss%

Example:
Position Size= (100,000.00 * 1%) / 5.63%
Position Size= 1,000.00 / 5.63%
Position Size= 17,761.98

How many shares we can buy with 17,761.98? In order to be able to calculate the no. of shares to be bought you need to apply this
formula:

Formula:

No. of Shares = Position Size / Entry Price

Example:
No. of Shares = 17,761.98 / 13.50
No. of Shares = 1,315.70

However, you can't buy 1,315.70 shares exactly as per our calculated No. of Shares. You can rounded it off base on the minimum board
lot in PSE. See table for board lot reference.
Thus:
No. of Shares = 1,300

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

Table of Board lot as per PSE

By using RMS, No. of shares to be bought had rounded down already base on PSE Board lot:
0.005 Output Calculated Portfolio Allocation %wise
Output Calculated Amount to Trade
Output Calculated No. of Shares

Note:
The result in Position Sizing in RMS were calculated based on specific algorithm. The algorithm includes but not limited to
additional slippage or trading fees, and PSE Board Lot.

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

= Simulation =

Aside from automatic rounding off of No. of Shares to be bought as per PSE board lot. The has additional features added in our RMS.
The simulations include four (4) cases, the possible damage/recovery to your total account amount and %-wise:

Case 1: Liquidating your position base on your stop loss price.

Case 2: Liquidating your position same with your entry price.
Case 3: Liquidating your position if you want to get breakeven.
Case 4: Liquidating your position base on your target price.

By using RMS, you can simulate the possible outcome of you trade base on your Account Size, VAR%, Entry Price, Stop Loss Price, and
Target Price:

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

Conclusion

Not having a trading risk management strategy we’re basically risking the entire trading capital and risk of getting a margin call. Smart
trading also means that you need to have a trading risk reward ratio of minimum 1:2 in order to survive in the long term.
Money management has proven many times to turn a losing strategy into a winning one. So to overcome the limitations of your trading
strategy you should focus on your trading risk management strategy.

- Trading Strategy Guide - Full Contents Credits

Risk Planning
VAR Amount = Account Size * VAR %

Measure The Risk Reward Ratio

Risk Reward Ratio = Total Risk / Total Reward
Total Risk = Stop Loss Price - Entry Price
Total Reward = Target Price - Entry Price

Position Sizing
Position Size = (Account Size * VAR%) / Stop Loss%
No. of Shares = Position Size / Entry Price

- OR -
No. of Shares = (VAR% / Stop Loss%) * Account Size / Entry Price
No. of Shares = (Account Size * VAR%) / (Entry Price - Exit Price)

ABS Risk Management Simulator Features

1. Slippage or trading fees included in calculation in order protect your capital as per VAR%.
2. Automatic rounding off of No. of shares to be bought based on PSE Board lot.
3. Flash message to remind and stay you on track with proper risk management.
4. Simulation output to track down the possible damage/recovery of your total account.
5. Simplified and friendly user's interface.
6. Comprehensive user's guide for both RMS and Risk Management.
7. Credits of resources so that you can dig deeper about different strategy in risk management.
8. Automated and lighting result of calculated numbers.

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 ABS Risk Management Simulator

RMS Contributors

SN User's Feedback Review by

1 Simplified Idea of Risk Management Calculation Rave Kairos
2 Technical cut instead of %wise stop loss Aedrick Yanga
3 Slippage includes on suggested No. of shares to be bought computation Aedrick Yanga
4 Flash message on 8K rule Developer
5 Flash message on < 2.0 RRR Wilbur Adrian Elicot
6 Simulated Error in other MS Office Version Paul Jovena
7 Breakeven scenario and case arrangement Jimmy Angeles

Disclaimer, or, Use At Your Own Risk

We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of ABS Risk Management Simulator. Any
Action you take upon the information on this program is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be able liable for any
losses and damages in connection with the use of our program.

References

TradingStrategyGuides, February 2018, How to Build a Trading Risk Management Strategy (Full contents credits)
https://tradingstrategyguides.com/trading-risk-management-strategy/

Edward Lee, June 2018, COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 8)
https://youtu.be/dAcRJKP600M

Jason Cam, Chapter 19: p.248-253 Risk Management, The Trading Code
https://www.facebook.com/thetradingcode/

Best Regards,
Abraham Avila Jr.
RMS Developer, ABS Trading Strategy
https://www.facebook.com/absavilajr
abs.mailbox@yahoo.com

ABS Risk Management Simulator

© 2018. Free to share.

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