Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
April 2018
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
TOP FIVE TRENDS SHAPING FRESH FOOD
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION
Scope
The Fresh Food Global Industry Overview provides a top-line industry Disclaimer
overview across the global fresh food industry. This report contains a global Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
outlook, examining the performance of the fresh food categories while every attempt has been made
comparatively, across regions and markets. 5-year forecasts for each category to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
are explored. This report also covers five key trends shaping the development held responsible for omissions or
of fresh food globally over the coming five years. errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
All volumes are expressed in tonnes. All values expressed in this report are in calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
US dollars, using a fixed 2017 exchange rate. Figures for 2017 are based on briefings may not totally reflect the
part-year estimates. All data are expressed in constant terms: inflationary companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
effects are discounted.
The fresh food industry
experienced another year of
positive growth in 2017, driven
by volume growth in emerging
regions of Asia Pacific and
Middle East and Africa. Overall,
volume growth has been
supported by a positive
performance in all categories,
most notably in plant-based
proteins such as pulses and
nuts, which is testament to an
evolving global diet. This report
offers a global overview of the
fresh food industry, and
highlights major trends and
developments.
Historic Forecast
Trend Expected long-term implications
significance significance
Consumers are increasingly seeking wholesome, fresh
products that benefit general wellbeing and nutrition, such
Healthy living
as hybrid varieties naturally enriched through cross-
selection, organic or antibiotic-free animal produce.
As concerns about the impact of agriculture on the
environment grow, sustainability and security of food come
Ethical living
to the fore. Food waste, responsible sourcing, and fair trade
are top of the list of features consumers increasingly seek.
Premium positioning and higher unit prices are ever more
present as consumers seek quality and indulgence. They
Premiumisation
drive growth in saturated markets and are most pronounced
in meat, fish and seafood in well-developed markets.
Internet retailing and innovative concepts such as meal kits
Shopping and round-the-clock vending add value, increasing
reinvented consumer reach. Nonetheless, traditional retail channels
remain dominant as cultural entrenchment is profound.
Growth of the global population will allow greater total
Shifting market consumption, with developing economies around the world
frontiers powering demand. Retail value growth can also be
augmented by greater economic prowess in these markets.
= high/growing importance = medium/unchanged importance = low/declining importance
Areas of opportunity
3. Appealing to
4. Bridging the
1. Cleaner products 2. Convenient formats changing
cooking skills gap
demographics
• Consumers are increasingly • Products offering • In addition to traditional • The rise of single-person
demanding greater convenience of handling, factors such as rising households and more
transparency of the food storage, cooking or eating incomes and population women in employment have
supply chain from farm to on-the-go are resonating growth, there are powerful contributed to the gradual
the plate, and are willing to well with consumers who demographic trends loss of home-cooking skills.
pay a premium for organic are looking to eat healthily, affecting fresh food A growing number of
products with a natural and and include more fresh food consumption, and contribute consumers are reluctant to
environmentally clean options into their diets. to new impetuses in certain buy certain fresh products,
image. • Opportunities are present in categories. such as fish and seafood,
• There is growing focus on convenience formats which • Ageing populations, growing non-pre-cooked pulses,
antibiotic use in intensive are viable alternatives to urban populations and certain types of vegetables
farming and aquaculture, processed food. Vacuum- smaller householders are all or to prepare meals from
and the development of packed vegetables, meat, demographics that scratch, as they do not feel
antibiotic resistance in fish and seafood, fruits and negatively affect volume confident in the kitchen.
humans through berries in leak-proof consumption of fresh food. • Consumers are more willing
consumption of livestock punnets, bags and pouches However, there are to purchase fresh products
products. in which products can be opportunities in reaching and items arranged into
• Antibiotic-free meat and fish, cooked within minutes, and them with products tailored recipe kits if easy-to-
especially those, carrying an re-closable, re-sealable to their needs and understand cooking advice
organic label, are expected packs –solutions that expectations, such as and suggestions or recipes
to be in high demand from prolong freshness, reduce smaller portions, convenient are enclosed or accompany
both, consumers and waste in the home and save solutions, and products with the sale.
foodservice operators, many time in the kitchen – are all enhanced nutritional • Retailers can further assist,
of which are working to expected to attract more properties. for instance, with preparing
reduce the use of consumers and boost fresh and cutting meat and fish
antimicrobial drugs in their food consumption without ready to be cooked at home.
supply chains. sacrificing convenience.
An ageing global population, coupled with a rise in busy urban consumers living in smaller households, are
inhibiting further growth of fresh food in favour of packaged food, due to the greater level of convenience
afforded by the latter. Affecting a plethora of consumer types, especially in the wake of the 2015 report from
the World Health Organization linking processed meat with cancer, is the meat reduction trend, which sees
meat eschewed in favour of plant-based alternatives, if not completely then frequently. This trend is
particularly threatening to sales of red meat, with Western Europe already in decline and North America set
for a slowdown over the next five years. Meat in general is also beset by growing concerns regarding the
safety and security of fresh food supply, and scares of food contamination with antibiotics, pesticides and
other pollutants, which are fuelling demand for more organic produce. This is itself one manifestation of the
premium trend, which is in general prompting the arrival of value-added products to drive retail value sales
within mature staple products. Increased consumer expenditure through premium products can, however,
be offset by savings through waste-reduction measures, especially for fruit and vegetables, which will
likewise diminish losses for businesses.
The senior demographic is a rapidly growing segment Population Aged 65+ versus Most
for the global food industry; they cook less and tend to Rapidly Ageing Populations 2017-2022
look for quality – in line with their general affluence – 20% 25%
with strong unique selling points, such as healthy and 20%
15%
functional foods and easy-to-prepare dishes. In Japan,
15%
the world’s oldest economy with 28% of the population 10%
10%
over the age of 65, demand for processed food limits
5%
fresh food growth. 5%
Top 5 Markets Meat Total Volume Beef and veal is the largest net contributor to meat globally
2012-2017 CAGR and in total volume, yet the performance of the top five markets
Per Capita 2017 in this category has shown divergence over the last decade.
8% 100
Brazil’s decline in the previous years from a very mature
2012-2017 CAGR
Million tonnes
60 China, meanwhile, has profited from increased consumer
3% 40 purchasing power, making it the only top five country in
20 which beef and veal growth has outpaced that of poultry
0 over this period.
-2% -20
AP LAT WE NA MEA EE AA Further restrictions placed on the slaughter of cattle in
AC AM numerous states in India led to a slowdown in consumption
Market Size 2017 2012-2017 CAGR in the immediately preceding years.
Western Europe stands out as the only regional negative
Beef and Veal Total Volume performer in meat over the last five years. This has been
2007-2017 premised on the burgeoning flexitarian trend, which is
10 manifest in more sporadic meat consumption, and augments
8 the market for plant-based proteins.
North America, in particular the US, has surprised by
Million tonnes
6
showing itself to be robust in this market over this period,
4
despite already high consumption levels. This was further
2 bolstered by a rise in production and thus lower prices in
0
2017.
20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- Sustained increases in Eastern European consumption
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
have largely been driven by poultry in Russia, which has
China US Brazil India Russia gained appeal since the economic downturn in 2014.
Organic vs Conventional Fresh Organic demand is strongest in fresh vegetables, fruit, and
Food: Retail Volume Sales meat, primarily in North America and Western Europe, as
2012-2017 consumers in more economically developed geographies
China
have higher disposable income and can thus afford more
expensive organic produce, and appreciate the benefits
India
offered by produce with organic credentials. The US, the UK
Japan
and China constituted the leading markets in retail value
USA sales of organic fresh food in 2017. India’s decline in organic
Brazil fresh food was based on poor production and a minor overall
France share of organic versus overall fresh food in that market.
Germany The success of organic products, which outperform their
Italy conventional counterparts in volume and value growth barring
Spain a few exceptions, derives mainly from increasing demand for
UK
healthier and more natural products. A growing number of
health-conscious consumers are looking such products as
Australia
they are perceived as more environmentally friendly, and are
Morocco
more closely associated with ethical sourcing practices.
South Africa
While higher costs of organic products remain an issue, both
UAE
premium retailers and discounters continuously expand their
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 organic offerings. In Germany and the UK the discounters
2012-2017 CAGR %
Aldi and Lidl carry extended assortments of fresh organic
produce from fruit and vegetables to starchy roots, pulses
Organic Fresh Food Overall Fresh Food and meat and poultry at affordable prices.
Growers and retailers of fresh produce, primarily in developed markets of Western Europe, North America
and Australasia, increasingly introduce products with added value that differentiate from conventional
offerings to draw consumers’ attention, and re-energise sales within mature staple categories, primarily
fruit, vegetables, meat, and fish and seafood.
In the US premium varieties of apples, such as Envy, Fuji, Jazz, and Pacific Rose, have driven overall
value sales in the mature category for several years. Apples managed to increase their retail value sales by
11% over the 2012-2017 period, although this included annual fluctuations on the basis of harvests. Prices
of premium apples far exceed conventional varieties, for example the Red Delicious variety averaged
USD2.90 per kg in 2017, whereas Fuji apples stood at USD5.50 per kg.
Deutsche See, one of the leading companies in Germany for fresh fish and seafood, markets its fresh
salmon as a premium product offering exceptional quality, transparency and freshness. Despite the fact
that discounters account for nearly half of sales of fish and seafood in Germany, Deutsche See took the
decision to phase out its salmon products in this channel, and distribute through retailers selling at a higher
price tag, as well as via its own online shop and home delivery service. Despite rising unit prices for salmon
in the past years, retail volume sales remained stable – a testament to the appeal of a premium proposition
to more affluent consumers.
The global marketplace is seeing a rise in branded and private label premium products offering greater
diversity in terms of flavour, visually unique features, enhanced nutritional value, additional health benefits,
and convenience in handling, storage and preparation. Premium margins range significantly depending on
retail channel and product in focus: from 25% on heirloom tomatoes, to 40% on dry-aged beef. Some
premium products command more extreme margins, for instance, organic drinking coconuts fitted with a
ring-pull and a straw, retail at GBP3.00 each at Sainsbury’s (UK), while whole coconuts in an outer shell
cost a mere GBP0.80.
FAO statistics suggest that nearly one-third of the food produced in the world for human consumption is
lost or wasted annually. In developing countries, 40% of losses occur at the post-harvest and processing
stages, while in developed countries more than 40% of losses occur at retailer and consumer levels.
At retail level, large quantities of food are wasted due to quality standards that put an emphasis on
appearance. More retailers are now making efforts to explain that produce with minor imperfections caused
by natural growth or weather conditions should not be discarded, with ranges of misshapen produce being
debuted. These include Inglorious Fruits and Vegetables (Intermarché, France), Wunderling (Rewe,
Austria), A Little Less Than Perfect (Waitrose, UK), and Wonky (Aldi, Germany).
In order to reduce waste, British supermarkets have been phasing out buy-one-get-one-free (BOGOF)
offers over the past two years, especially in highly perishable products such as salads, berries, stone fruit,
roots and tubers. Instead, retailers, such as Sainsbury’s, Tesco and ASDA focus on consistently low prices
on everyday essentials, in order to make it easier for customers to buy the products they desire in the
quantities they need.
Retailers continuously work to cut not only their own in-store wastage but also that of their entire supply
chain, by obliging suppliers to have waste-curbing protocols in operation. Suppliers use ever-advancing
technologies to prolong the shelf life of fresh produce: from ethylene eliminating to aseptic and vacuum
packaging solutions, to application of soft robotics for picking and packing produce that can be easily
bruised and spoilt, or pose a cross-contamination risk.
Food suppliers and governments need to educate consumers of the fact that not all waste is created equal,
and that minimising spoilage of the food types that are most resource-intensive to produce, such as meat
and fish, represents an important step towards sustainable consumption behaviour.
Definitions
Fresh Food: This is the aggregation of fresh uncooked and unprocessed foods, packaged and
unpackaged, ambient, chilled and frozen.
Eggs: This is the aggregation of all fresh poultry eggs.
Fish and seafood: This is the aggregation of fresh fish, crustaceans, molluscs and cephalopods.
Fruits: This is the aggregation of fresh apples, bananas, cherries, cranberries and blueberries, grapefruit
and pomelo, grapes, kiwi fruit, lemons and limes, oranges, peaches and nectarines, pears and quinces,
plums and sloes, tangerines and mandarins, pineapples, strawberries and other fruit.
Meat: This is the aggregation of fresh beef and veal, lamb, mutton and goat, pork, poultry and other meat.
Nuts: This is the aggregation of almonds, walnuts, pistachio, peanuts (or groundnuts) and other nuts.
Pulses: This is the aggregation of dry beans, peas and other pulses.
Starchy roots: This is the aggregation of fresh potatoes, cassava, sweet potatoes and other roots.
Vegetables: This is the aggregation of fresh cauliflowers/broccoli, maize, tomatoes, onions and other
vegetables.
Sugar and sweeteners: This is the aggregation of all table-top raw sugar products and natural sweeteners.