Military Technologies, Fifth

Generation Warfare and Policy

Implications for Pakistan
http://pakistanpolitico.com/military-technologies-fifth-generation-warfare-and-policy-implications-for-
pakistan/

Najeeb Zaidi

It is trendy to give generational classifications to warfare based on technological

changes. However, warfare has always been hybrid and has constantly been
shaped by that generation’s technological tools. Hybrid or Nth generation,
warfare essentially reflects human pugnacity to maximise power at others’ cost.
No country, especially a nuclear power like Pakistan, can afford to fight the latest
generation of warfare with an old toolkit. That is why it is essential to debate the
implications of recent evolution in military technologies, which have become
multi-disciplinary and carry public policy consequences from diplomacy to
economy and even right to privacy. For these reasons, rapid evolution and
commercialization in innovative technologies and strategies are also called
disruptive game-changers.

These game-changing technologies have intensified the global power

competition, increased the response challenges and have made smaller states
more vulnerable. Being a technological straggler, Pakistan should quickly adapt
these dual-use Disruptive Innovation Technologies and Strategies. There should
a sense of urgency in Islamabad because the doors to access these technologies
shall close soon. The leading powers likely to use a concerted exclusion strategy
exactly the way they did in the discriminatory nuclear non-proliferation regime.
This generation of warfare cannot be fought through traditional military means.
It requires an admix and ardent use of science diplomacy and military
technologies.

Even big-powers have been compelled to upgrade and redesign their traditional
policy frameworks owing to these ‘disruptive technologies and strategies.’ The
new business and operating models are essential for maintaining competitive
strategic advantage and efficiencies across economic, financial, commercial,
defence and cyber sectors, including sustainable development regimes,
increasing reliance on multiple fund-sources, revised infrastructure, skills
upgrades and risk-return profiles.

Digital world has placed enormous amounts of data in user-hands. The scope of
traditional diplomacy has evolved to Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I).
This has increased the depth of intra-disciplinary dependence. This implies new
rules for negotiations, partnerships and thus an opportunity aside the challenges.
If Pakistan intelligently embraces the change along the innovative strategies
curve, it can emerge strong out of existing dismal economic and relative power
outlay. What is the systemic technological mosaic? What is science diplomacy?
How can these two be used to maximise Pakistan’s power in the so-called
5th Generation Warfare?

Science diplomacy has three components. One, ‘science in diplomacy’ implies

exposing the policy makers to best information regarding science, technology
and innovation. Two, ‘diplomacy of science’ denotes international science
cooperation, cross-border collaborations to improve science or relationships.
Three, ‘science for diplomacy’ improves inter-state relations and is evolutionary.
It includes finance medicine, nanotechnology, alternative energy and space. Two
cases in point can be geo-synchronous orbiting satellites and Fin-Tech, which
affect Pakistan’s sovereignty as explained below.

Space Science in Diplomacy – even though Pakistan has recently launched two
satellites, it largely remains dependent on third party contractors. Most
communication and broadcast satellites are placed in a geostationary orbit band,
about 36,000 km above the earth. Limitations on the number of satellites in that
orbit necessitate international cooperation in space allocations that must
inherently be driven by an understanding of constraints on proximity to optimize
overall usage. This necessitates a technically complex marriage of space-
technology experts along with the diplomacy gurus.

Space Diplomacy of Science – Is Pakistan living up to that participation yet? The

space has tens of thousands of softball or larger objects floating in this band that
are potentially harmful to operational satellites. The need to understand the
physics and movement of these objectives is crucial to the sustainability of the
‘satellite belt’ and requires collaborative international network to advance that
understanding.

Space Science for Diplomacy – Not all products and capabilities are available
from a single vendor or country. Therefore, collaborations between countries on
these issues, including transferring technologies shall minimize failure risks. This
explains why India is collaborating with entire world in space technology and is
not reliant on a single source or partner.

Likewise, Fin-Tech includes Blockchains and Distributed Ledger Technologies

(DLT). The core concept underlying these is the “automation of trust” focused
towards maximizing operating efficiencies while minimizing the intermediation
i.e. roughly no brokers or bankers in between. The politics of such a “disruptive”
concept is visible across today’s geo-economics. Pakistan has chosen to currently
side with the idlers by banning usage of such technologies as well as its current
test-forms like cryptocurrencies. Further, the insecurities of various lobbies
across public and private sector players are being played in more colourful forms,
all at the cost of national progress.

The use of innovative technologies in space and economy are just two forms of
latest generation of warfare that Pakistan is afflicted with and does not even fully
comprehend the extent of damage that has been done. This war has to be
fought with right tools, knowledge and diplomacy sans brute military force. That
is why Pakistan’s science diplomacy against so-called 5th generation warfare will
have to be built on home-grown DLT infrastructure, encryption methods, end-
use blockchain platforms, and a policy structure that protects national financial
information going directly and indiscriminately in the hands of unwanted
software and technology providers. Allowing foreign versions of these appealing
but misunderstood software have placed Pakistan’s financial security in greatest
jeopardy – it is like buying a lock from the enemy and leaving the keys with him.

Switching back to a global view, a consensus exists for at least twelve out of
forty-plus disruptive technologies driving strategic changes through 2019 and
beyond. A combination of these being termed as Intelligent Digital Mesh (IDM),
while underlying is a multitude of innovations: Figure-1 illustrates the adoption
expectations.
Seven technologies are commercially identified as strategic for 2019 and these
are the sinews of the latest generation of warfare: autonomous things (robotics,
internet of things (IOT), unmanned autonomous vehicles, under-water UAVs,
augmented analytics, artificial intelligence based infrastructure, 5G, cloud/ fog,
blockchains, crypto-currencies & digital assets, smart contracts and other
platforms like infrastructures, platforms and software as-a-service. These are all
wrapped within a flurry of regulatory frameworks, ethical policies, legal and
intellectual property rights buffers against hostile competitive entry. Specific
monopolies through delivery techniques/ platforms in use are called x-Tech and
include Mil-Tech, Def-Tech, Fin-Tech, Reg-Tech, Gov-Tech, Prop-Tech, Insure-
Tech, Medi-Tech, Cyber. These require dedicated diplomatic effort for protection
of Pakistan’s commercial, financial and economic interests. This is where the war
is being fought, not on or behind traditional lines of defence.

Easily inferable is dual-use nature of these technologies. While apparently

independent propaganda-press harps on social and personal comforts created by
such automation, these have lethal and pervasive connotations as tools of
espionage, asymmetric warfare, remote intrusions and deterrence enforcements.
Consider the consequences if the national decision-making hierarchy of a
nuclear-armed state is incapacitated through these tools just before it has to
take a decision to use it or lose it.

From the military infrastructure perspective, these innovative technologies have

triggered a sharp transitioning of generational warfare from ‘so-called’ 5th to
8th Generation, resulting in structural changes across all aspects of defence and
security operations. The G-3, G-8 and P-5 nations are fiercely competing to the
extent that the Russian President Putin in 2017, declared that, “The nation that
maintains the supremacy in Artificial Intelligence will rule the world.” This
orientation, if technically edited by inserting the term “IDM mosaic” instead of
just the AI component, allows an improved view of bigger picture for fast-
evolving Mil-Tech/ Def-Tech landscapes and thus a deeper orientation on
associated diplomatic challenges as needed in Pakistan. The country badly needs
to develop dual-use leading-edge military applications like yesterday (see Table-
1).

Table 1 – Dual-use Military Applications (illustrative and non-

exhaustive listing)
The x-Tech are thus creating unique global diplomacy stress-zones and South
Asia is no exception. The diplomacy and defence strategy challenges within
Pakistan’s geopolitical context are even more accentuated and require an urgent,
smart and institutionally well-concerted response. The private sector will be a
follower or supporting enabler, at least in the medium term. Among many, five
major inferences can be drawn from the above birds eye view of current
generation of warfare.

One, Harvard Business Review termed “data as the next generation oil.” It is not
only a means for gaining competitive advantages, negotiation edge, and securing
our economic interests through advanced analytics or adequate monetization,
but is also integral to maintaining national security.

Two, the overlapping nature of x-Tech requires an integrated policy development

and monitoring capacity. The bureaucratic-silo approach and traditional
government processes will not be able to compete with the demands of this
generation of warfare.

Three, Pakistan’s current practice for buying technology user licenses and remain
an end-user has become a direct national security threat. Foremost risk is to
allow vendors to open customer accounts from offshore, thereby creating a
parallel unsupervised capital flow channel. Likewise, non-participation in the
global Fin-tech and crypto-currencies arena and banning these is a mistake
because it has created an undocumented channel for capital haemorrhage.
Disregarding emerging technologies is hampering growth and competitive
position.
Four, x-Tech adoption must ensure home-based technological ownership,
technology transfers and capabilities to maintain well-protected data repositories
within Pakistan’s sovereign jurisdictions – as done by China and others. Inability
to design customized standards will risk national security.

Five, since disruptive technologies affect inter-state political and economic

relations, the relevant ministries must have synergy and joint ownership of these
affairs. However, the 18th Amendment would affect the implementation of state-
level interventions.

To conclude, Pakistan has lived up to a similar technology vs. security challenge

back in 1974-84. Now Pakistan has to adopt an innovative diplomatic strategy
that involves dual-use IDM mosaic. It will be a clear departure from the past
once Pakistan’s nuclear development could take place in a covert silo. The new
approach to fight the 8th generation warfare and retain competitive strategic
advantage inter alia involves embracing Fintech & Smart Contract based
strategies to fund Pakistan’s security objectives. The key would be not to get
intimidated by technological sophistication, or foreign-preached misconceptions
against developing home-grown solutions or taking acquired-building-blocks
approaches. Pakistan has the core elements and it is just a matter of evolution
through a persistent, patient, disciplined development.

Najeeb Zaidi is an investment-banking, risk management and financial

technologies professional, with twenty-five years’ experience. He specialises in
artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other emerging technologies.