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INTRODUCTION
• With the world output growth falling from 3.8 per cent in 2017 to 3.6 per cent in 2018, it is projected to fall further to 3.3
per cent in 2019 as growth of both advanced economies and emerging & developing economies are expected to decline.
• Growth of the Indian economy moderated in 2018-19 with a growth of 6.8 per cent, slightly lower than 7.2 per cent in
2017-18. Yet, India continued to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.
• India maintained its macro-economic stability by containing inflation within 4 per cent and by maintaining a manageable
current account deficit to GDP ratio (within3% of GDP).
¾ The current account deficit to GDP was higher in 2018-19 as compared to 2017-18, primarily due to higher oil prices.
• The manufacturing sector was characterised by higher growth in 2018-19 while the growth in agriculture sector witnessed
tapering.
• Growth in investment, which had slowed down for many years, has bottomed out and has started to recover since 2017-18.
• Capital expenditure of Central Government grew by 15.1 per cent in 2018-19 leading to increase in share of capital
expenditure in total expenditure.
• The Indian economy is projected to grow at 7 per cent in 2019-20.
Important Indicators
• Headline CPI declined to 3.4 per cent in 2018-19 from 3.6 per cent in 2017-18.
• Headline WPI inflation stood at 4.3 per cent in 2018-19, higher as compared to 3.0 per cent in 2017-18.
• GVA growth slowed down marginally from 6.9 per cent in 2017-18 to 6.6 per cent in 2018-19.
• Core Gross Value Added (GVA) (measured as GVA except ‘Agriculture & allied’ activities, and ‘Public administration &
defence’) shows higher growth than that of overall GVA in 2018-19 picked up from 6.5 per cent in 2017- 18 to 7.0 per
cent in 2018-19.
• Current account deficit (CAD) increased from 1.9 per cent of GDP in 2017-18 to 2.6 per cent in April-December 2018 on
account of higher trade deficit driven by rise in international crude oil prices.
• Merchandise exports and imports declined in US dollar terms in 2018-19, as compared to 2017-18.
• Growth in service exports and imports in US dollar terms declined in 2018-19, as compared to 2017-18.
• Depreciation of Rupee: This depreciation occurred due to the concerns related to widening of CAD owing to rising crude
oil prices coupled with tighter financial conditions in US caused by increase in Federal Funds rate by the US Federal
Reserve.
¾ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) (36 currency trade based bilateral weights) of rupee depreciated by
5.6 per cent in 2018-19.
¾ Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) also depreciated by 4.8 per cent in 2018-19.
• Foreign exchange reserves were declining until October 2018 due to RBI's intervention to modulate exchange rate
volatility. India's foreign exchange reserves continue to be comfortably placed at US$ 422.2 billion.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows grew by 14.2 per cent in 2018- 19, FDI inflows have been growing at a high rate
since 2015-16. Among the top sectors attracting FDI equity inflows, services, automobiles and chemicals were the major
categories.
• In 2018-19, direct taxes grew by 13.4% (PA) owing to improved performance of corporate tax. However, indirect taxes
fell short of budget estimates by about 16%, following a shortfall in GST revenues.
• Total expenditure of central government grew by 7.9% in 2018- 19 (PA), with the growth of 15.1 per cent in capital
expenditure leading to increase in share of capital expenditure.
• Fiscal Consolidation : The new targeting framework was adopted in 2018-19 which rests on the twin pillars of reducing
debt and fiscal deficit.
• Total liabilities of the Central Government, as a ratio of GDP, have declined, as an outcome of both fiscal consolidation
efforts as well as relatively high GDP growth.
• Primary deficit (amount by which a government’s total expenditure exceeds its total revenue, excluding interest payments
on its debt) of the central government has been consistently declining and now stands at 0.3% of GDP in 2018-19 (PA)
from 0.7% in 2015-16.
• Indian banking sector has been dealing with twin balance sheet problem, which refers to stressed corporate and bank
balance Sheets. NPAs as a percentage of Gross Advances of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) decreased from 11.5 per
cent to 10.1 per cent between March 2018 and December 2018.
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
• Consumption has always been a strong and major driver of growth in the economy. Within total final consumption, it is
the private final consumption expenditure that has a major share (close to 60 per cent) in the economy’s GDP.
• Fixed investment growth picked up from 8.3 per cent in 2016-17 to 9.3 per QUASI-CORPORATES:
cent in 2017-18 and further to 10.0 per cent in 2018-19.
• Unincorporated enterprises
Green Shoots in the Investment Activity belonging to households, which
• Credit to, both, large and micro, small & medium enterprises has seen pickup have complete sets of accounts.
in growth especially because of the growth of bank credit. • Quasi-Corporate invest in
machinery & equipment.
• Credit growth to large industry started declining since March 2016 but has
recovered since early 2017-18.
• At the sectoral level, investment rates have been declining since 2011-12, though the investment rate in services is
displaying signs of bottoming out.
• There has been a decline in savings rate as well, with the household sector entirely contributing to the decline. Almost
this entire decline is in physical savings of the households.
Household physical savings comprises gold and silver and physical assets including construction and machinery and
equipment, with physical assets forming the major share.
• The fourth component of demand is net exports. Exports are the external component of demand of domestic goods, and
imports are a leakage of income of the country for demand of products from other countries. As India is a net importer,
net exports are always negative.
¾ In 2018-19, there was improvement in contribution of net exports to GDP growth, owing to higher growth of exports
and lower growth of imports at constant prices as compared to previous year.
¾ The prospects of export growth are dependent on the impact of rising trade protectionism and effectiveness of
export promotion measures of Government.
Supply Side of the Economy:
• Gross Value Added (GVA), reflects the supply or production side of the economy to which net indirect taxes on products
are added to get GDP at market prices.
• Real GDP growth for the year 2019-20 is projected at 7%, reflecting a recovery in the economy after a deceleration in
the growth momentum throughout 2018-19.
• Investment rate, which was declining from 2011-12 seems to have bottomed out. It is expected to pick up further in the
year 2019-20 on the back of higher credit growth and improved demand.
• Stressed assets in the banking sector declined in NPA to gross advances ratio as on December 2018, which should push
the capex cycle.
• Rural wages growth which was declining seems to have bottomed out and has started to increase since mid-2018 due
to pick up in food prices and PM-Kisan scheme and thus bossting rural consumption.
• The lower global growth and the increased uncertainty about trade tensions may negatively affect export demand,
including that of India, which will further lower GDP growth rates of several countries.
PM-Kisan scheme was announced by the government to provide an income support of Rs. 6000/- per year to small and
marginal farmer families having combined land holding/ownership of upto 2 hectares.
The condition of minimum land holding has been subsequently removed to benefit all farmers. This cash transfer scheme
will also increase the rural incomes.
INTRODUCTION
• Revenue augmentation and expenditure reprioritisation and rationalisation continue to be integral to fiscal reforms.
• Broadening and deepening the direct tax base and stabilisation of Goods and Services tax are the other priorities.
• Budgetary expenditure of the Central Government, as per cent of GDP, has seen considerable moderation with most of
the reduction in the revenue expenditure.
• Within revenue expenditure, major subsidies comprising food, fertiliser and petroleum continued their downward trend.
• The new fiscal targeting framework was adopted,which rests on twin pillars of reducing debt and fiscal deficit. The
revised fiscal glide path envisaged achieving fiscal deficit of 3 per cent of GDP by FY 2020-21 and Central Government
debt to 40 per cent of GDP by 2024-25.
The Budget 2018-19 targeted significantly high growth in non-debt receipts of the Central Government, which was
driven by robust growth in net tax revenue and non-tax revenue.
• Decreasing Order of Receipts as percentage of Non-Debt Receipts: Tax Revenue > Non-Tax Revenue > Non-Debt
Capital Receipts
Tax Revenue
• 51 per cent of Gross Tax Revenue (GTR) was estimated to accrue from direct taxes and the remaining 49 per cent
from indirect taxes.
• The growth in GTR in 2018-19 has been lower than envisaged in the budget. Indirect taxes have fallen short of budget
estimates largely owing to the shortfall in GST revenues.
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• GTR as a proportion of GDP has declined by 0.3 percentage
points in 2018-19.
• Better tax administration, widening of TDS carried over the
years, anti-tax evasion measures and increase in effective tax
payers base have contributed to direct tax buoyancy.
• Widening of tax base due to increase in the number of indirect
tax filers in the GST regime has also led to improved tax
buoyancy.
Non-Tax Revenue
• Non-tax revenue consists mainly of interest receipts on loans to States and Union Territories, dividends and profits from
Public Sector Enterprises including surplus of Reserve Bank of India transferred to GOI and external grants and receipts
for services provided by the Central Government.
• These services include fiscal services like currency, coinage and mint, general services such as Public Service Commission
and police, social services like education and health, and economic services like irrigation, transportation and
communication.
• Decreasing Order as proportion of Non-Tax Revenue: Dividends and Profits > Interest Receipts > External Grants
Non-Debt Capital Receipts
• Non-debt capital receipts mainly consist of recovery of loans and advances and disinvestment receipts.
• The share of recovery of loans has declined over the years consequent to the recommendation of the Twelfth Finance
Commission and States allowed to borrow directly from the market.
TRENDS IN EXPENDITURE
• Rationalisation and reprioritisation of government
expenditure is integral to fiscal reforms. As India’s tax to
GDP ratio (Around 11%) is low, Government faces the
challenge of providing sufficient funds for investment and
infrastructure expansion while maintaining fiscal
discipline. Therefore, improving the composition and
quality of expenditure towards capital spending becomes
significant.
• The composition of government expenditure reveals that
expenditure on defence, salaries, pensions, interest
payments and subsidies which is mostly non-productive and committed but account for more than sixty per cent of
total expenditure.
• The quality of expenditure reflected in the share of capital expenditure in total expenditure has improved in 2018-19.
• Expansion in capital expenditure on roads, railways and others has been met without compromising defence capital
expenditure.
• The growth in revenue expenditure in 2018-19 though moderate, has been led by salaries, pensions and interest
payments.
• More than two-thirds of the fiscal space created by compression of revenue expenditure is on account of reduction in
food, fertiliser and petroleum subsidies. This is an outcome of decline in global crude prices, decontrol of prices and
better targeting through direct benefit transfer of subsidies.
Changes in major components of Revenue Expenditure in 2018-19 over 2013-14 as percent of GDP
• CSS were routed through two channels - Consolidated Funds of the States and directly to the State implementing
agencies. In 2014-15, direct transfers to State implementing agencies were discontinued and all transfers to States
including for the CSS were routed through the Consolidated Funds of the States.
• Another significant development has been award of the Fourteenth Finance Commission to devolve 42 per centof the
divisible pool of taxes to the States, up from 32 per cent earlier.
• Both in absolute terms, and as a percentage of GDP, total transfers to States have risen between 2014-15 and
2018-19.
INTRODUCTION
• Weaker-than anticipated inflation, growth slowdown and softer international monetary conditions has forced the policy
rate to be reduced by 75 bps.
• Financial flows to the economy remained constrained because of decline in the amount of equity finance raised from
capital markets and stress in the NBFC sector but the performance of the banking system has improved as NPA ratios
declined and credit growth accelerated.
• Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code has already led to recovery and resolution of significant amount of distressed assets as
well as palpably improved business culture.
• Reserve Money (M0), recorded a growth of 14.5% over the previous year mainly Reserve Money is Currency in
driven by Currency in Circulation due to net RBI credit to government from open Circulation plus Deposits of
market operations (OMOs). Commercial Banks with RBI.
• Broad money growth (M3) has been on declining trend since 2009. However, in
M3 is a measure of broad money
2018-19, M3 improved marginally driven mainly by both currency and deposits.
and includes currency with the
• Amongst sources, credit from scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) to the commercial public and deposits.
sector primarily contributed to an increase in M3 during the year.
Tight liquidity has led to increase in spread of treasury bills and G-Security rates over the repo rate.
Basics of Yield:
• Hardening of G-Sec yield means the yield on G-Secs is increasing.
• Bond Yield and Bond Price have inverse relationship which means if yield is increasing then the market prices of G-Secs
is decreasing and thus, the demand of G-Sec has been declining.
• On the other hand, if yield is softening which means that it is decreasing, then the market prices of G-Secs is increasing
and thus, the demand of G-Sec has been increasing.
BANKING SECTOR
• The Gross Non-Performing Advances (GNPA) ratio of SCBs decreased from 11.5% to 10.1% between March 2018 and
December 2018.
• Capital to risk-weighted asset ratio (CRAR) of SCBs increased from 13.8% to 14%.
• Return on assets (RoA) decreased from 0.21% in 2017-18 to 0.03% in 2018-19 while their Return on equity (RoE)
decreased from 2.41% to 0.4%.
CREDIT GROWTH
• Credit growth has come down from 13.8% in November 2018 to 11.9% in April 2019 due to the services sector.
• The growth in bank credit to large industries have improved in recent months.
• The average non-food bank credit (NFC) growth in 2018-19 improved to 11.2%.
Primary Market
A. Public Issue
• The year 2018-19 witnessed a significant decrease in resource mobilization through public issue and rights issue of
equity compared to the previous year.
• Resource mobilization through issuance of debt public issue rose quite significantly during 2018-19 as compared to
previous year.
• Overall, total public issue declined by 50% from 1,10,269 crore in 2017-18 to 54,915 crore in 2018-19.
B. Private Placement
• During 2018-19, Indian corporate preferred private placement route to gear up the capital requirement through 12
qualified institutional placement (QIP) allotments and 404 preferential allotments which raised 7,469 crore and 2,10,163
crore, respectively during 2018-19.
• The resource mobilization through issuance of corporate bonds private placement decreased.
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Mutual Fund Activities:
• During 2018-19, net inflow in MF industry decreased as compared to a net inflow in 2017-18.
• The cumulative net assets under management of all MF increased by 11.4%
Investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs):
• Total cumulative investment by FPIs decreased as on March 31 2019 from March 31 2018.
• The assets of the FPIs in India increased as on March 31 2019 from March 31 2018.
• The notional value of offshore derivative instruments (including ODIs on derivatives) decreased in the same period.
INSURANCE SECTOR
• The potential and performance of the insurance sector are generally assessed on the basis of two parameters, viz.,
insurance penetration and insurance density.
• Insurance penetration is measured as the percentage of insurance premium to GDP, which was 2.71 per cent in 2001,
has steadily increased to 3.69 per cent in 2017.
• Insurance density is calculated as the ratio of premium to population (measured in US$ for convenience of international
comparison), which was US$11.5 in 2001, reached to US$73 in 2017.
• Gross direct premium of general insurers was 1,50,660 crores as against 1,28,130 crores, in the previous year registering
17.6% growth.
• Renewal premium accounted for 57.68% of the total premium received by the life insurers, new business contributed
the remaining 42.32%.
• The IBC provides for the establishment of Information Utilities (IU), Ex- National e-Governance Services Limited
(NeSL) to collect financial information from creditors and provide access to stakeholders so that they can make informed
decisions.
Progress of IBC
• As on February 2019, that is, within 27 months of operationalization of the IBC, as many as 14,000 applications had been
filed for initiation of Corporate Insolvency Resolution Plans (CIRPs) under the IBC. As on March 31, 2019, NCLT had
ordered the commencement of CIRP of 1,858 Corporate Debtors.
• Out of the total cases admitted, 152 cases were closed on appeal, review or settlement, 91 were withdrawn on account
of settlement under section 12A of the IBC, 94 yielded resolutions and 378 resulted in liquidation. 1,143 cases are
presently undergoing resolution process. Further, 383 cases of voluntary liquidation
Institutional Response
• Two sets of amendments were introduced in the IBC to make the process and outcomes more efficient :-
1. It introduced Section 29A, prohibiting persons with certain disabilities from submitting a resolution plan.
2. Changes to make the IBC easier to operate by reducing the threshold for decision making by the committee of
creditors from 75% to 66% in specified matters and to 51% for routine decisions.
• The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules, 1957 was amended to protect the interest of minority shareholders. It was
provided that if the public shareholding falls below 25 per cent as a result of the approval of the resolution plan under the
IBC, it shall be brought back to 25 per cent within three years.
• If public shareholding falls below 10 per cent, the same should be brought back to 10 per cent within 18 months.
Impact of IBC
A. Behavioral change
• It has initiated a cultural shift in the dynamics between lender and borrower, promoter and creditor.
• It is responsible corporate behaviour by encouraging higher standards of corporate governance, including cash and
financial discipline, to avoid consequences of insolvency.
• The IBC has paved the way for Operational Creditors, mostly SMEs and small vendors to use the IBC as a recovery tool.
• The threat of promoters losing control of the company or protracted legal proceedings is forcing many corporate
defaulters to pay off their debt even before the insolvency can be started.
B. Increase in the resolution of stressed assets
• IBC which aims at the turnaround of the debtor while
maximizing returns for the creditors with average recovery
of nearly 43% under the IBC as against of 23% by early
mechanisms.
• key objectives of the IBC is to allow companies to be liquidated
swiftly to maximize value if resolutions cannot be reached.
• India improved its ‘Resolving Insolvency’ ranking from 134 in
2014 to 108 in 2019.
Reforms:
A. Cross Border Insolvency
• Investors and companies frequently transact business in more than one sovereign jurisdiction so it is important to
know what is going to happen when things go wrong from a financial perspective in a particular country.
TRENDS IN INFLATION
RURAL-URBAN INFLATION
• The current phase of low inflation is also marked by reduction in both urban and rural inflation. The decline in rural
inflation is steeper than that of urban inflation resulting in decline in headline inflation.
• Fall in rural inflation is due to moderation in food inflation. Miscellaneous group was the main driver of CPI (Rural)
inflation in 2018-19, contributing more than 70 per cent to the overall rural inflation.
• In urban areas, miscellaneous group and housing have contributed to inflation in equal measure during FY 2018-19.
INTRODUCTION
• In adoption of 2030 global agenda, the countries are moving forward for achieving a healthy planet for future generations
and integrate various social, economic and environmental dimensions.
• India maintains its economic growth by introducing various policies and measures relating to sustainable development,
climate change, resource efficiency and air pollution to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
SDG Goal Score out of 100 SDG Goal Score out of 100
SDG 1 : End Poverty 54 SDG 8: Economic Growth 65
SDG 2: Hunger 48 SDG 9: Infrastructure and Industrialisation 44
SDG 3: Health 52 SDG 10: Inequality 71
SDG 4: Education 58 SDG 11: Resilient Cities 39
SDG 5: Gender Equality 36 SDG 15: Ecosystem and Biodiversity 90
SDG 6: Water 63 SDG 16: Institutions 71
SDG 7: Energy 51
• India’s growth trajectory for achieving SDG 10 (Reduced Inequality) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) is impressive as
compared to the other SDGs as several states have achieved 100 in these SDGs. This may be due to performance in
worthy initiatives such as PMJDY, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), the National
Environment Policy, National Agro-forestry Policy and Green Highways Policy.
• India is struggling to achieve its targets of SDG 5 (Gender Equality) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
• SDG 12 aims to 'Ensure Sustainable Consumption and Production Patterns' along with the eight other SDG goals (2, 6, 7,
8, 9, 11, 14 and 15) have a bearing on resource efficiency.
• A resource efficient development approach means a transition of the management of natural resources with a
minimization of waste in both consumption and production processes through various policies and measures. This is
reflected in various policies/programmeannouncements like Make in India, Zero Effect-Zero Defect Scheme, Smart
Cities, Swachh Bharat, and Ganga Rejuvenation Mission.
• As per the NITI Aayog's Strategy Paper on Resource Efficiency 2017, India consumed 5 billion tonnes of biomass, fossil
fuels, minerals and metals in 2010 and was the third largest consumer after China and US. It is projected that India's
demand for total material will more than double by 2030 under the assumption of continued economic growth of 8 per
cent till 2030.
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Benefits of Resource Efficiency
• Estimates suggest that US $1 billion worth of gold can be extracted with mining of urban e-waste.
• Effective waste management policies can generate 14 lakh jobs.
• Nearly US $2.7 billion opportunity can be created from the extraction of eight million tonnes of steel from the end of life
Vehicles.
• Priority Sectors for enhancing Resource Efficiency in India : Indian auto industry, Recycling of Plastics, electronics
industry, Aluminium industry and Construction & Demolition Waste.
• Six Pillars for a Resource Efficiency Framework in India:
1. Policy : Formulate a national policy on Resource Efficiency (RE) for all types of resources (biotic & abiotic), Sustainable
Public Procurement (SPP) and End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) addressing various life cycle stages and key stakeholders.
2. Programmes and Mainstreaming : Mainstream RE initiatives by leveraging existing flagship programmes and
schemes like Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Smart Cities etc. Industry may leverage CSR and EPR for RE initiatives.
3. Regulations : Establish a national level and state level coordinating bodies between various ministries to identify,
implement and achieve national RE goals.
4. Setting up a Dynamic Recycling Industry : Promote the establishment of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) with
the allocation of land in urban areas and industrial estates to create secure landfills.
5. Support R&D to develop scalable technologies for RE and leverage technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI),
robotics, block-chain etc. for the recycling industry.
6. Capacity Development, Outreach & Monitoring to provide capacity development support on RE for ministries/
departments at the National and State levels.
AIR POLLUTION
• Government is executing National Air Quality Monitoring Programme (NAMP) under which, Sulphur Dioxide (SO2 ),
Oxides of Nitrogen as NO2 , Suspended Particulate Matter (PM10) and Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) have been identified
for regular monitoring at all the locations.
Major Government Initiatives
1. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) with reference to various identified pollutant notified by the CPCB
under the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981.
2. Air Quality Index (AQI) is a tool for effective communication of air quality status to people which transforms complex air
quality data of various pollutants into a single number (index value), nomenclature and colour.
3. NCAP has been launched by MoEF&CC as a pan India time bound national level target of 20-30 per cent reduction of
PM2.5 and PM10 concentration by 2024.
4. Graded Response Action Plan for Delhi and NCR which comprises of the graded measures for each source framed
according to the AQI categories.
CLIMATE CHANGE
• The ultimate objective of UNFCCC is to stabilize GHG concentration in the atmosphere , in a time frame which allows
ecosystems to adapt naturally and enables sustainable development.
• The main aim of Paris Agreement is to hold the increase in the global average temperature well below 2oC above pre-
industrial levels and 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels.
Linkage between Human Activities and Global Warming
• As per the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global warming of 1.5oC,
human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.2°C) above pre-industrial levels in
2017, increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade.
• The year 2018 was the sixth warmest year on record since the nation-wide records commenced in 1901.
WAY FORWARD
• Given the myriad developmental challenges faced by the developing economies, lack of adequate resources is a major
challenge in achieving the SDGs and international cooperation is essential in achieving these goals.
• Policies need to nudge economic agents towards achieving the maximum output from the available resources.
• India's NDC has set clear targets for achieving its climate goals. However, a substantial scaling up of financial resources
and technology are needed to implement this target by 2030.
INTRODUCTION
• The current account deficit is projected at 2.4% of GDP in 2018-19 up from 1.8% in 2017-18 and this widening of the
current account deficit has been driven by a deterioration of trade deficit. Rise in crude oil prices and decline in the
growth of merchandize exports have led to the deterioration of trade deficit.
• In funding the current account deficit, the total liabilities-to-GDP ratio, inclusive of both debt and non-debt components,
has declined from 43 percent in 2015 to about 38 per cent at end of 2018.
• The share of foreign direct investment has risen and that of net portfolio investment has fallen in total liabilities,
thereby reflecting a transition to more stable sources of funding the current account deficit.
• India’s foreign exchange reserves continue to be comfortably placed in excess of US $400 billion.
• The Real Effective Exchange Rate also depreciated in 2018-19, making India’s exports potentially more competitive.
• Petroleum products, precious stones, drug formulations, gold and other precious metals continue to be top export
items. Crude petroleum, pearl, precious, semi-precious stones and gold remain as top import items. India’s main
trading partners continue to be the US, China, Hong Kong, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Observation
• Due to increasing protectionism, there has been a spatial shift in the nature of BoP balances, advanced countries are
becoming BoP surplus while emerging countries are seeing a reversal in their BoP.
• This reversal of fortune is an indicator shifting of the consumption hub to the emerging and developing economies.
TRADE POLICY
• India has signed 28 bilateral/multilateral trade agreements with various country/group of countries.
• In 2018-19, India’s exports to countries with which it has a trade agreement account for 36.9 per cent of India’s export
to all the countries.
• Similarly, in the same year, India’s imports from countries with which it has a trade agreement account for 52.0 per cent
of India’s imports from all the countries.
India has bilateral trade arrangements with all major regional groupings:
• Europe: In Europe, it is a part of European Free Trade Association (EFTA), consisting of Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and
Liechtenstein.
• SAARC: Among SAARC countries, India and Bangladesh have a bilateral trade agreement and both countries are exploring
the possibility of entering into a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.
• Sri Lanka: With Sri Lanka, India has India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISLFTA), under which duty-free access for
almost all the products except a few is provided.
• ASEAN: India and ASEAN have agreed to start examining the preliminary proposals related to the scope of the review of
ASEAN India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA). Within ASEAN, India has Comprehensive Economic Cooperation
Agreement (CECA) with Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia.
• Latin America: Among Latin American countries, India has Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) with MERCOSUR
(Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and Chile. Possibilities are being explored for PTA with Colombia also.
• North America: Under North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), negotiations are underway for India Canada
Comprehensive Economic Policy Agreement (CEPA).
• Oceania: India is also negotiating bilateral Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with Australia and
New Zealand.
TRADE FACILITATION
• India ratified the WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation (TFA) in 2016 and subsequently constituted a National Committee
on Trade Facilitation (NCTF) with the Cabinet Secretary of India as the Chairman.
• Further, to coordinate overall implementation of India’s notified facilitation commitments, a Steering Committee co-
chaired by the Commerce Secretary and the Revenue Secretary has been formed.
• Since then, the NCTF has played an important role in reducing the high cost of imports and exports so as to integrate our
cross-border trade with the global value chain.
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TRADE RELATED LOGISTICS
Overview
• According to the Global Ranking of the World Bank’s 2016 Logistics Performance Index, India jumped to 35th rank in
2016 but in 2018, India stood at 44thrank.
• According to the domestic rating agency ICRA, Indian logistics sector is expected to grow at a rate of 8-10 per cent over
the medium term.
• Logistics sector can be the largest job creator by 2022.The sector currently provides employment to more than 72 crore
people in the country.
Various Government Initiatives
• Government of India has announced a draft National Logistics policy for which a national logistics action plan is being
developed.
• Various logistics schemes has been introduced, which are as under:
¾ The Government has launched many flagship programmes like the Bharatmala Yojana, the Sagarmala Yojana and
the Dedicated Freight Corridors. The objective of these programmes is to develop infrastructure to meet the
growing demand of logistics in the country and to make a modal shift on more cost effective modes of transport.
¾ 111 waterways have been identified for development.
¾ Infrastructure status has been given to select logistics activities like warehousing, cold chains, Multi modal logistics
parks and slurry pipelines.
¾ Subsidy is provided to develop cold chains and pack houses.
Sunshine Sector
• Indian logistics industry is a sunshine sector and there are multiple factors on both demand and supply side that are
driving this sector.
¾ On the demand side, the reduction in truck turnaround time following GST is a major stimulus to logistics growth as
also pick up in industrial production.
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¾ On the supply side, the outsourcing of non-core activities like warehousing is allowing main players to focus on
improving efficiency of transportation. Automation of large warehouses is also adding to the efficiency of the
logistics sector.
• Driving logistics cost down from estimated current levels of 13-14 per cent of GDP to 10 per cent in line with best-in class
global standards is essential for India to become globally competitive.
OUTLOOK
• There could be pressure on crude prices to increase as world output grows yet that may not impact India since growth
in world output will also favourably impact India’s exports, which is not decoupled from growth of world trade.
• Government policies are expected to further lift restrictions on FDI inflows, which will continue to increase the stability
of sources funding the current account deficit.
• From a macro-economic perspective, the deterioration of CAD may be contained if consumption slows down in the
economy while increase in investment and exports become the new drivers of the Indian economy.
INTRODUCTION
• Agriculture and allied sectors are critical in terms of employment and livelihoods for the small and marginal farmers,
who dominate the agriculture ecosystem in India.
• A combination of resource efficient methods, dynamic cropping patterns, farming that is responsive to climate
change and intensive use of ICTs should be the backbone of smallholder farming in India.
• For a safe and food secure future, the agriculture landscape has to undergo tremendous transformation and shift from
the philosophy of ‘green revolution led’ productivity to ‘green methods’ led sustainability in agriculture.
• By 2050, India will be in the global hot spot for ‘water VI. Improvement in real prices received by farmers; and
insecurity’. VII. Shift from farm to non-farm occupations.
Reason
• The cropping pattern in India is highly skewed towards crops that are water intensive due to incentive structures
like MSP, heavily subsidised electricity, water and fertilisers. For Example, water guzzlers, paddy and sugarcane;
consume more than 60 per cent of irrigation water.
• NABARD’s Water Productivity Mapping of Major Indian Crops reflects the urgent need to focus on irrigation water
productivity to raise agricultural productivity.
• For instance, the States like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh which have high land
productivity tend to have very low irrigation water productivity, reflecting inefficient use of water and the need to re-
calibrate the cropping pattern.
Solution
• Micro Irrigation System: States with penetration of MI systems and improved adoption of micro irrigation systems have
almost save 40 to 50 percent in energy and fertiliser consumption.
• Focus in agriculture should shift from ‘land productivity’ to ‘irrigation water productivity’.
• Therefore, devising policies to incentivise farmers to adopt efficient ways of water use should become a national priority
to avert the looming water crisis.
Related Information
• Irrigation water productivity: Defined as ratio of the crop output to the irrigation water applied by the farmer/
irrigation system either through surface canals, tank, pond or the well and tube well during the crop growth.
Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) • It is an elaborated component of Soil Health Management (SHM) of
major project 'National Mission of Sustainable Agriculture' (NMSA).
• Under PKVY, organic farming is promoted through adoption of organic
village by cluster approach and PGS certification.
Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) • The RKVY aims at achieving 4% annual growth in the agriculture sector
during the XI Plan period, by ensuring a holistic development of
Agriculture and allied sectors (Fisheries Department, Horticulture,
Animal Husbandry etc).
AGRICULTURAL CREDIT
Observation
• It is seen that the distribution of agricultural credit is low in North Eastern, Hilly and Eastern States.
• The share of North Eastern States has been less than one per cent in total agricultural credit disbursement.
• The financial inclusion in the eastern and north eastern India is relatively less as compared to the South and West.
• The small and marginal holdings constitute majority (more than 85 per cent) of total operational holdings in the
eastern region, north-eastern region and central region, which warrants greater distribution of agricultural credit
disbursement to this region.
E Pashu Haat Portal • Under the scheme National Mission on Bovine Productivity, E Pashudhan Haat
portal was developed for connecting breeders and farmers regarding availability
of quality bovine germplasm.
• Through the portal, breeders/farmers can sell or purchase their breeding stock.
• Information on all forms of germplasm including semen embryos and live animals
with all the agencies and stakeholders in the country has been uploaded on the
portal.
National Livestock Mission • National Livestock Mission ensures intensive development of livestock, especially
small livestock (sheep/goat, poultry rearing etc.) along with adequate availability
of quality feed and fodder.
Livestock Health & Disease • Assistance provided under the Scheme for prevention and control of animal
Control Scheme diseases like Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Peste des Petits Ruminants, (PPR),
Brucellosis, Classical Swine Fever etc.
• In order to strengthen and expand the trained veterinary manpower, the number
of recognized veterinary colleges has been increased.
Dairy Development • The Government is making efforts for strengthening infrastructure for production
of quality milk, procurement, processing and marketing of milk and milk products
through the following dairy development schemes viz;
1. National Programme for Dairy Development, National Dairy Plan (Phase-I),
2. Dairy Entrepreneurship Development Scheme,
3. Dairy Processing and Infrastructure Development Fund (DIDF).
INFRASTRUCTURE
• SDG goal number 9 aims to "Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including regional and
trans-border infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and
equitable access for all".
• The correlation of investments ininland, road, rail and airport infrastructureto GDP are higher than 0.90 indicating that
there exists a strong correlation between GDP and investment in infrastructure.
• This further reiterates the fact that massive investment is needed in infrastructure to achieve targeted economic
growth in the country.
www.baliyans.com 40 Economic Survey 2018-19 : Volume-II
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• India needs to spend 7-8 per cent of its GDP on infrastructure Overhead Capital or Social Overhead Capital
annually, which translates into annual infrastructure investment
• In Economic literature, infrastructure is
of US $200 billion currently.
popular by the name “Overhead Capital” or
• However, India has been able to spend only about US$100-110 “Social Overhead Capital”.
billion annually on infrastructure, leaving a deficit of around US • The famous economist A.O Hirschman
$90 Billion per annum. stated that Social Overhead capital is the
Key Initiative of Government of India to boosting Investment in “basic services without which primary,
Infrastructure secondary and tertiary productive
• National Investment and Infrastructure Fund: Created with a activities cannot function”.
capital of approximately Rs.400 billion to provide investment
opportunities to commercially viable projects.
• Credit Enhancement Fund: For infrastructure projects for increasing the credit rating of bonds floated by infrastructure
companies is going to be launched in the country.
• Credit Rating System: For infrastructure projects, based on Expected Loss approach, has also been launched which seeks
to provide additional risk assessment mechanism for informed decision making by long-term investors.
• Infrastructure investment trusts and Real Estate Investment Trusts: Formulated to pool investment in infrastructure.
ROAD SECTOR
• Roads are part of an integrated multi modal system of transport which provides crucial links to airports, railway stations,
ports and other logistical hubs and acts as a catalyst for economic growth by playing a critical role in the supply chain
management.
• It is the dominant mode of transportation in comparison with rail, air traffic and inland water-ways.
• Accounts for about 3.14 per cent of GVA and 69 per cent and 90 per cent of the country wide freight and passenger traffic
respectively.
• India has a road network of about 58.98 lakh kms as on 31 March, 2017 with rural roads constituting 70.65 percent and
National highways constituting 1.94 percent.
• Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH) declared 2018-19 as the ‘Year of Construction’and has been making
constant efforts to expand and upgrade the network of National Highways in the country as a result of which road
construction in kms grew @ 30 kms per day in 2018-19 as compared to 12 kms per day in 2014-15.
Key Challenges
• Financial: Availability of funds for financing large projects.
• Land & Acquisition:Lengthy processes in acquisition of land and payment of compensation to the beneficiaries.
• Environmental concerns: Cutting of large number of trees.
• Delay in Project: Time and cost overruns due to delays in project implementation, procedural delays.
• Project Viability: lesser traffic growth than expected increasing the riskiness of the projects resulting in stalled or
languishing projects and shortfall in funds for maintenance.
• Less investment from Private sector: Private sector investment has been tardy as private investors are interested in
short term investments while NHAI and NHIDCL were looking for long-term borrowing arrangements keeping in view
long gestation period of road projects.
Key Initiative taken by Government of India in Road Sector
• Increase in Investments:Huge investments have been made in this sector with total investment increasing more than
three times from Rs. 51,914 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 1,58,839 crore in 2018-19.
• Central Road and Infrastructure Fund (CRIF): Central Road Fund (CRF) which is a major source of budgetary support for
the Highway sector was also amended by the Finance Act, 2018, and replaced by Central Road and Infrastructure Fund
(CRIF) wherein the fund now is to be earmarked for various infrastructure sectors such as Transport, Energy, Water and
Sanitation, Communication, Social and Commercial infrastructure.
RAILWAY
Key Initiative taken by Government of India in Railway Sector
• Freight and passenger performance: In 2018-19, IR carried 1221.39 million tonnes of revenue earning freight showing
an increase of 61.84 million tonnes over the freight traffic of 2017-18 and translating into an increase of 5.33 per cent.
There is an increase of 2.09 percent the number of passengers carried by IR during 2017-18 as compared to 2016-17 and
0.64 per cent increase in 2018-19 as compared to 2017-18.
• Rail Safety:The incident of train collisions has come down to zero in the year 2018-19. The incidents of derailment have
decreased from 78 in 2016-17 to 46 in the year 2018-19. However, the occurrence of fire in trains has increased to six in
the year 2018-19 as compared to one in 2016-17.
• Mission Electrification:IR has initiated a major electrification program for electrifying 100 per cent of its Broad Gauge
network. This would reduce the nations dependence on imported diesel oil.
• ‘Swachh Rail, Swachh Bharat’, mission focuses on cleanliness: As per the swachh rail portal, Beas station ranked first
in India in the case of cleanliness among ‘A’ category stations and ‘Visakhapatnam’ tops the list among ‘A1’ category
stations.
AVIATION SECTOR
• India’s scheduled domestic air transportation for
Key Initiatives Taken in Civil Aviation Sector
passengers and goods has grown by 14 percent and
12 per cent respectively in 2018-19. • New Greenfield airports are being rapidly developed.
• UDAN: The routes are widely spread geographically • UDAN: Under “Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik - UDAN”, a total
providing connectivity country-wide and ensuring of 719 routes have been awarded in three rounds of bidding
balanced regional growth, while making air travel for regional connectivity, 182 of which are operational.
convenient and affordable. • Regional connectivity Scheme (RCS): Airports Authority
• Once all routes are operationalised, more than 1 crore of India (AAI) will connect 22 airports under regional
RCS-UDAN seats will be provided annually, and 21 connectivity scheme in the first phase.
States would have more than 3 operational airports Under RCS plans are to connect these underserved airports to
each. Prior to UDAN, only 7 States had more than 3
key airports through flights that will cost Rs 2,500 for per hour
operational airports each.
flight.
• Aviation Turbine Fuel: High and unpredictable
change in global crude oil prices during 2018-19 have been compounded by a high domestic tax regime on aviation
turbine fuel.
National Air Cargo Policy
Aim:
• To achieve fundamental re-engineering of the whole-of-the-value-chains for domestic and export-import air freight
for reaching the target of handling 10 million tonnes by 2026-27.
Objective:
• To leverage the Indian air cargo network to provide cargo transportation by air at an affordable cost and connect
every village to the national and global supply chains.
• To make air cargo and logistics in India among the most efficient, seamless, and cost and time effective in the world
over a period of 10 years.
TELECOM SECTOR
• Telecommunication has been recognized world-over as a powerful tool of development and poverty reduction through
empowerment of masses.
• As on March 2019, the total subscription stood at 118.34 crore out of which 51.42 crore connections were in the rural
areas and 66.91 crore in the urban areas. The wireless telephony now constitutes 98.17 per cent of all subscriptions
whereas share of landline telephones now stands at only 1.83 per cent.
• The overall tele-density in India stands at 90.10 per cent, the rural tele-density being 57.50 per cent and urban tele-
density being 159.66 per cent at the end of March 2019.
• India’s Mobile Economy:The mobile industry has witnessed exponential growth over the last few years driven by
affordable tariffs, wider availability, roll out of Mobile Number Portability (MNP), expanding 3G and 4G coverage,
evolving consumption patterns and a conducive policy and regulatory environment.
• Policy Initiatives:
1. Making India 5G ready by 2020:For India, 5G provides an opportunity for industry to reach out to global markets,
and consumers to gain with the economies of scale and citizens to reap the benefits of doorstep governance and
availability of services, medical support, benefits transfers, education, entertainment and build a digital payment,
knowledge and services economy.
2. FDI in telecom sector:During 2018-19 FDI equity inflow touched US$2.67 billion – more than double rise from the
level of US$1.3 billion witnessed in 2015-16.
HOUSING
Overview
• According to Census 2011, 377.1 million Indians comprising 31.14 per cent of the country's population lived in urban
areas, which are projected to grow more than 600 million by 2031.
• The process of urbanization has been characterized by increase in the number of large cities, although India may be said
to be in the midst of transition from a predominantly rural to a quasi-urban society.
Policy Initiatives
• Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 (RERA): The core objective of this transformative legislation is to
ensure regulation and promote real estate sector in an efficient and transparent manner and to protect the interest of
home buyers.
• Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban):PMAY was launched on 25 June 2015 with the objective of providing housing
facilities to all the eligible families/beneficiaries by 2022. It has four components: "In-situ" Slum Redevelopment, Credit
Linked Subsidy Scheme, Affordable Housing in Partnership with public or private sector and Beneficiary-led individual
house construction/ enhancements.
• Smart Cities Mission: It was launched in June 2015 for a 5-year period with the objective of promoting cities that provide
core infrastructure and give a decent quality life to its citizens. The strategic components of Smart Cities initiative are:
• Area-based development involving city improvement (retrofitting),
WAY FORWARD
• In order to create a ten trillion-dollar economy by 2032, India needs a robust and resilient infrastructure.
• Public investment cannot fund the entire infrastructure investment requirements of the country. Further, private players
are usuallyeager to bring their capital into developed Indian states as compared to less developed states.
• Along with physical infrastructure; provision of social infrastructure is also equally important as these two would determine
where India will be placed in the world by 2030.
Space Services
Indian Space Programme contributes to National Development, through the application of space technology, comprising of
earth observation, communication and navigation to address issues related to socioeconomic development from macro to
micro levels.
• Bhuvan Services:ISRO’s Bhuvan Geo-portal provides multi sensor, multi-platform and multi temporal Satellite Imagery,
thematic maps and satellite data-derived information related to Earth Observation & Disaster Management Support.
¾ Bhuvan has enriched portals of more than20 Central Ministries/Departments and 30States, and is also providing
Geospatialsupport for many flagship programmes of theGovernment.
• Mapping and Geospatial Services: Satellite data, synchronous with ground data, are used to estimate crop acreage.
Some of the major satellite data based mapping/Geospatial services developed include Watershed Monitoring under
Integrated Watershed Management Programme (IWMP), Monitoring of progress of road construction under PMGSY,
GIS implementation of MGNREGA (GeoMGNREGA), Monitoring of stage of construction of beneficiary houses under
Housing for All-Urban (PMAY), Geospatial database for Urban Master Plan formulation under AMRUT, etc.
GENDER ISSUES
• For societies to move forward it is imperative that they
Gender Budgeting
understand the significance of women’s role and
• The Ministry of Women and Child Development
contribution in the growth process.
(MoWCD) as the Nodal agency has adopted the
• Acknowledging this, the government has introduced mission strategy of ‘Budgeting forGender Equity’ to
various schemes like Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao (BBBP), ensure that government budgets are planned
Ujjwala Scheme, Poshan Abhiyaan, Pradhan Mantri Matra according to the differential needs of women and men
Vandana Yojana etc., to mainstream women and make and accordingly prioritized.
women active agents of change in the society. • Gender Budgeting is concerned with gender-
• Financial inclusion of women is considered as an essential sensitiveformulation of legislation, policies, plans,
programmes and schemes; allocation and collection
tool for empowerment of women as it enhances their self-
of resources; implementation and execution;
confidence and enables financial decision-making to a
monitoring, review, audit and impact assessmentof
certain extent. This is evident from the increase in the programmes and schemes; and follow-up corrective
number of accounts they themselves use from 15.5 per action to address gender disparities.
cent in 2005-06 to 53 per cent in 2015-16. • It is undertaken through several institutional
• Also,as per NFHS-4, participation of currently married women mechanisms such as Gender Budget Statement,
in household decision making has increased from 76.5 per Gender Budget Cells, as well as various schemes/
cent in 2005-06 to 84 per cent in 2015-16 at all India level. programmes for women and girls.
• The Government has been committed to provision of social security which is evident in the initiation of major social sector
schemes by the Government of India (during the last five years) like:
Major Social Protection Schemes and Achievements during 2014-2019
EMPLOYMENT SCENARIO
• As per Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) estimates, Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in India has declined to
36.9 per cent in 2017-18 from 39.5 per cent in 2011-12 (NSSO) as per usual status.
• Similarly, Worker Population Ratio (WPR) in India has declined to 34.7 per cent in 2017- 18 from 38.6 per cent in 2011-12
(NSSO). The unemployment rate (UR) in India stood at 6.1 per cent with 5.3 per cent in rural areas and 7.8 per cent in
urban areas as per usual status.
• Most of the youth in urban areas does not have technical education. However, proportion of youth who received
vocation training has improved.
• Male workers continue to earn more than the female workers.
• Informal sector continues to be the largest employer whereas the formal sector saw increased employment opportunities
in recent times.
RURAL DEVELOPMENT
• Recognizing the significant impact of road connectivity on education, health and other important aspects of society, the
government has introduced schemes like Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (2000). The rate of rural road construction,
i.e. kms of rural road constructed per day, there is an increased momentum from 2015-16 onwards.
¾ Some of the better performing states are Maharashtra, Assam, Uttar Pradesh & Odisha. Where as on the other end,
we have Mizoram, Sikkim, Goa & Meghalaya where the length of rural roads is very less.
¾ Also, to reduce the carbon footprint from such construction materials like fly ash, waste plastic, cold mix, geo textile,
etc. are being used.
• For providing shelter for the poor, schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Gramin) (2016) have been introduced.
¾ During 2014-2019, 1.54 crore houses were completed including those carried over from Indira Awas Yojana through
convergence of government initiatives like piped drinking water, toilets under Swachh Bharat Mission/MGNREGS,
electricity connection under Saubhagya programme, LPG connection under Ujjwala programme.
• MGNREGS has been instrumental and a guiding factor for tackling rural poverty and unemployment by providing
employment to the rural poor and unskilled people. It has generated 267.96 crore person days during 2018-19. The total
budget allocation has also been increased for the scheme.
India’s march towards achieving SDGs is firmly anchored in investing in human capital and inclusive growth. The government
has taken up various programmes specific to various needs of human capital development, which, in many cases, have shown
results and are expected to aid India’s march towards attaining targets under SDGs.