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7.

A random sample is drawn from a population with mean μ = 66 and standard deviation σ = 5.5.

b. Can you use the standard normal distribution to calculate the probability that the sample mean falls

between 66 and 68 for both sample sizes?

c. Report the probability if you answered yes to the previous question for either sample size.

12.

average American eating just 16 pounds o f seafood per year. Janice and Nina both work in the seafood

industry and they decide to create their own random samples and document the average seafood diet in

their sample. Let the standard deviation of the American seafood diet be 7 pounds.

a. Janice samples 42 Americans and finds an average seafood consumption of 18 pounds. How likely is it

to get an average of 18 pounds or more if she had a representative sample?

b. Nina samples 90 Americans and finds an average seafood consumption of 17.5 pounds. How likely is it

to get an average o f 17.5 pounds or more if she had a representative sample?

c. Which of the two women is likely to have used a more representative sample? Explain

17.

a. Discuss the sampling distribution of the sample proportion with n = 20 and n = 50.

b. Can you use the normal approximation to calculate the probability that the sample proportion is

between 0.10 and 0.12 for both sample sizes?

21.

A car manufacturer is concerned about poor customersatisfaction at one of its dealerships. The

management decides to evaluate the satisfaction surveys of its next 40 customers. The dealer will be fined

if fewer than 26 customers report favorably and the dealership will be dissolved if fewer than 22 report

favorably. It is known that 70% of the dealer's customers report favorably on satisfaction surveys.

23.

At a new exhibit in the Museum of Science, people are asked to choose between 50 or 100 random draws

from a machine. The machine is known to have 60 green balls and 40 red balls. After each draw, the color

of the ball is noted and the ball is put back for the next draw. You win a prize if more than 70% of the

draws result in a green ball. Would you choose 50 or 100 draws for the game? Explain.

49. According to the National Association of Colleges and Employers'Summer 2010 Salary Survey,

accounting graduates commanded the second highest salary at $50,402, followed by finance graduates at

$49,703. Let the standard deviation for accounting and finance graduates be $6,000 and $10,000,

respectively.

a. What is the probability that 100 randomly selected accounting graduates will average more than

$52,000 in salary?

b. What is the probability that 100 randomly selected finance graduates will average more than $52,000

in salary?

Halaman 236

53.

Annual expenditures for cellular phone services per consumer unit increased from $210 in 2001 to $608

in 2007. Let the standard deviation of annual cellular expenditure be $48 in 2001 and $132 in 2007.

a. What is the probability that the average expenditure of 100 cellular customers in 2001 exceeded

$200?

n = 100 sd 2001 = 48 sd 2007 = 132 miau 2001 =210 miau 2007 = 600

A. Compute in 2001

b. What is the probability that the average expenditure of 100 cellular customers in 2007 exceeded

$600?

. Compute in 2007

59.

Suppose that 10% of produced items are known to be nonconforming. Every week a batch of items is

evaluated and the production machines are adjusted if the proportion of nonconforming items exceeds

15%.

a. What is the probability that the production machines will be adjusted if the batch consists o f 50

items?

A. With items excededd 15%, 10%are known. Compute with n=50 and n=100

n=50

P(1 P)

CI P Z / 2

n

= 0,15-0,10/(√0,10(1-0,10))/50

= 0,119

b. What is the probability that the production machines will be adjusted if the batch consists of 100

items?

n=100

P(1 P)

CI P Z / 2

n

= 0,15-0,10/(√0,10(1-0,10))/100

= 0,166

11.

A simple random sample of 25 observations is derived from a normally distributed population with a

known standard deviation of 8.2.

Yes, because the observation is under 25 and the standart deviation is know

s

CI X Z / 2

n

s

CI X Z / 2

n

15.

In order to estimate the mean 30-year fixed mortgage rate for a home loan in the United States, a random

sample of 28 recent loans is taken. The average calculated from this sample is 5.25%. It can be assumed

that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are normally distributed with a standard deviation of 0.50%. Compute

a 90% and a 99% confidence interval for the population mean 30-year fixed mortgage rate.

Sample (n) = 28

X = 5,25 , Sd = 0,50

Normal distribution

Rumus

s

CI X Z / 2

n

s

CI X Z / 2

n

17. that the last 26 houses that sold in their neighborhood took an average time of 218 days to sell.

The realtor also tells them that based on her prior experience, the population standard deviation is 72

days.

a. What assumption regarding the population is necessary for making an interval estimate of the

population mean?

n = 26

X = 218 , sd = 72

A. The asummption is they have a sd and x and n so its make it normally distribution

b. Construct a 90% confidence interval of the mean sale time for all homes in the neighborhood.

s

CI X Z / 2

n

21.

A random sample of 24 observations is used to estimate the population mean. The sample mean and the

sample standard deviation are calculated as 104.6 and 28.8, respectively.Assume that the population is

normally distributed.

N= 24

X = 104,6 , S= 28,8

𝑆

𝑥̅ ± 𝑡𝛼⁄ × , Df = 23

2.𝑑𝑓 √𝑛

𝑆

𝑥̅ ± 𝑡𝛼⁄2.𝑑𝑓 × , Df = 23

√𝑛

c. Use your answers to discuss the impact of the confidence level on the width of the interval.

More hight of confidence Interval Level, the width of Interval More wider

Halaman 256

27.

takes a random sample of 36 recent charterholders and computes a mean salary of $158,000 with a

standard deviation of $36,000. Use this sample information to determine the 95% confidence interval

of the average salary of a CFAR charterholder.

X = 158.000 = 36.000

CI X Z / 2 X

n

= 158.000 11.760

CI= ( 146.240;169.760)

31.

The monthly closing stock prices (rounded to the nearest dollar) for Panera Bread Co. for the first six

months of 2010 are reported in the following table.

Xi 71 73 75 76 78 81 454 75,67

n 6 6

S

( Xi X )

n 1

(71 75.67) (73 75,67) (75 75,67) (76 75,67) (78 75,67) (81 75,67) / 5

(0,02)

2

0,00894

5

b. Compute the 90% confidence interval of the mean stock price of Panera Bread Co., assuming that the

stock price is normally distributed.

CI = 90% =10%=0,1

s

CI X Z / 2

n

=75,67 0,00245

CI = (75,66;75,67)

c. What happens to the margin of error if a higher confidence level is used for the interval estimate?

Margin Error --> CI increase, N (sample size) increase, impact to error decrease.

Margin Error will be reduce because confidence interval increase effect from bigger sample size to reduce

error.

Halaman 259.

41.

An economist reports that 560 out of a sample of 1,200 middle-income American households actively

participate in the stock market.

a. Construct a 90% confidence interval of the proportion of middle-income Americans who actively

participate in the stock market.

A. P = 560/1200 = 0,467

P(1 P)

P P Z / 2

n

0,467(1 0,467)

0,467 1,645

560

0,467 0,0346

b. Can we conclude that the proportion of middle-income Americans that actively participate in the

stock market is not 50%?

No, since the confidence interval is contain the value of 0,50 or 50%

There is a limit of interval (43,24; 50,16) and show 50 are still in interval.

43.

In a recent poll of 760 homeowners in the United States, one in five homeowners report having a home

equity loan that they are currently paying off. Using a confidence coefficient of 0.90, derive an interval

estimate of the proportion of all homeownersin the United States that hold a home equity loan.

P = x/n =1/5 = 0,20, is point estimate of the population proportion of successes ( P , known as point

estimate)

P(1 P)

CI P Z / 2

n

= 0,20 0,0238

47.

One in five 18-year-old Americans has not graduated from high school (The Wall Street Journal, April

19, 2007). A mayor of a northeastern city comments that its residents do not have the same graduation

rate as the rest of the country. An analyst from the Department of Education decides to test the mayor's

claim. In particular, she draws a random sample of 80 18-year-olds in the city and finds that 20 of them

have not graduated from high school.

a. Compute the point estimate of the proportion of 18-year-olds who have not graduated from high

school in this city.

b. Use this point estimate to derive a 95% confidence interval of the population proportion.

P(1 P)

CI P Z / 2

n

0,25(1 0,25)

0,25 1,96

80

0,25 0,0948

Halaman 262

49.

The lowest and highest observations in a population are 20 and 80, respectively. What is the minimum

sample size n required to estimate μ with 80% confidence if the desired margin of error is D = 2.6? What

happens to n if you decide to estimate μ with 95% confidence?

Case 1:

P = up+low/2 = 20+80/2 =50

P (1 P )

E Z / 2

n

50(49)

2,6 1,28

n

1,28 2

n( ) x 2450

2,6

N= 0,243 x 2450

Case 2

P (1 P )

E Z / 2

n

50(49)

2,6 1,96

n

1,49 2

n( ) x 2450

2,6

n= 0,5682 x 2450

n=1392

The higher confidence interval need a higher sample size. ( from 590 wtith 80% CI to 1392 with 95% CI)

Halaman 263

59

A survey by the AARP (Money, June 2007) reported that approximately 70% of people in the 50 to 64 age

bracket have tried some type of alternative therapy (for instance, acupuncture or the use of nutrition

supplements). Assume this survey was based on a sample of 400 people

a. Identify the relevant parameter of interest for these qualitative data and compute its point

estimate as well as the margin of error with 90% confidence.

𝑝̅ = 0.7

n = 400

margin error = 90%

𝑝(𝑝−1) 0.7×0.3

𝑝̅ ± 𝑍𝛼⁄2 × √ 𝑛

= 0.7 ±1.645 × √ 400

Upper = 0.7377

Lower = 0.6623

b. You decide to redo the analysis with the margin of error reduced to 2%. How large a sample do

you need to draw? State your assumptions in computing the required sample size.

n if E = 2%

2

𝑍𝛼⁄

2 1.645 2

n= ( 𝐸

) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝) = ( 0.02 ) × 0.7 × 0.3 = 1420.66 ≈ 1421

Semakin banyak sample yang digunakan maka akan semakin kecil kemungkinan errornya

61.

A student of business is interested in estimating a 99% confidence interval of the proportion of students

who bring laptops to campus. He wishes a precise estimate and is willing to draw a large sample that will

keep the sample proportion within five percentage points of the population proportion. What is the

minimum sample size required by this student, given that no prior estimate of the population

proportion is available?

𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 2.57

E = 0.05

2

𝑍𝛼⁄

2 2.57 2

n= ( 𝐸

) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝) = (0.05) × 0.5 × 0.5 = 660.49 ≈ 661

65.

Recently, six single-family homes in San Luis Obispo County in California sold at the following prices (in

$1,000s): $549, $449, $705, $529, $639, $609.

a. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean sale price in San Luis Obispo County.

n=6

549+449+705+529+639+609

𝜇= 6

= 580

∑(𝑥− 𝑥̅ ) 40607

S=√ 𝑛−1

=√ 5

= 90.11

𝑡𝛼⁄2 = 2.571

𝑆 90.11

𝑥̅ ± 𝑡𝛼⁄2.𝑑𝑓 × = 580 ±2.571 ×

√𝑛 √6

Upper = 674.580

Lower = 485.410

b. What assumption have you made when constructing this confidence interval

With 95% confidence interval that the average sale price in San Luis Obispo County is between

$485,410,000 and $674,580,000.

67.

A machine that is programmed to package 1.20 pounds of cereal is being tested for its accuracy. In a

sample of 36 cereal boxes, the sample mean filling weight is calculated as 1.22 pounds. The population

standard deviation is known to be 0.06 pound.

a. Identify the relevant parameter of interest for these quantitative data and compute its point

estimate as well as the margin of error with 95% confidence.

𝜇 = 1.22

𝜎 = 0.06

𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 1.96

n = 26

𝜎 0.06

𝜇 ± 𝑍𝛼⁄2. × = 1.22 ±1.96 ×

√𝑛 √36

Upper = 1.2396

Lower = 1.2004

b. Can we conclude that the packaging machine is operating properly?

Yes, because 1.20 is the value between 1.2004 and 1.2396

c. How large a sample must we take if we wish to contain the margin of error below 0.01 pound

with 95% confidence?

E = 0.01

𝑍𝛼⁄ = 1.96

2

𝑍𝛼⁄ 2

n= ( 2

) × 𝜎 2 = 138.298 ≈ 139

𝐸

69.

A recent study by Allstate Insurance Co. finds that 82% of teenagers have used cell phones while driving

(The Wall Street Journal, May 5,2010). Suppose this study was based on a random sample of 50 teen

drivers.

a. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of all teenagers that have used cell phones

while driving.

𝑝̅ = 0.82

n = 50

𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 2.57

𝑝(𝑝−1) 0.82×0.18

𝑝̅ ± 𝑍𝛼⁄2 × √ 𝑛

= 0.82 ±2.57 × √ 50

= 0.82 ± 0.1396

Lower = 0.6804

Upper = 0.9596

b. What is the margin of error with 99% confidence?

E if margin of error with 99% confidence

𝑝(𝑝−1) 0.82×0.18

E = 𝑍𝛼⁄ × √ = 2.57 × √ = 0.1396

2 𝑛 50

75.

According to a recent report by the PEW Research Center, 85% of adults under 30 feel optimistic about

the economy, but the optimism is shared by only 45% of those who are over 50 (Newsweek, September

13, 2010). A research analyst would like to construct 95% confidence intervals for the proportion patterns

in various regions of the country. She uses the reported rates by the PEW Research Center to determine

the sample size that would restrict the margin of error to within 0.05.

a. How large a sample is required to estimate the proportion of adults under 30 who feel optimistic

about the economy?

𝑝̅ = 0.85

E = 0.05

𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 1.96

2

𝑍𝛼⁄

2 1.96 2

n= ( ) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝) = ( ) × 0.85 × 0.15 = 195.92 ≈ 196

𝐸 0.05

b. How large a sample is required to estimate the proportion of adults over 50 who feel optimistic

about the economy?

𝑝̅ = 0.45

E=5

𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 1.96

2

𝑍𝛼⁄

2 1.96 2

n= ( 𝐸

) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝) = (0.05) × 0.45 × 0.55 = 380.31 ≈ 381

Halaman 277

7.

Construct the null and alternative hypotheses for the following claims:

a. "I am going to get the majority of the votes to win this election."

I am going to get the majority of the votes to win this election -> there is claim -> to win, so this is Null

Hypothesis,

Ho = K

Ha ≠K

b. "I suspect that your 10-inch pizzas are, on average, less than 10 inches in size."

I suspect that your 10 – inch pizzas are, on average, less than 10 inches in size -> there is claim -> less

then, so this is Null Hypothesis,

Ho ≤ K

Ha > K

c. "I will have to fine the company since its tablets do not contain an average of 250 mg of ibuprofen as

advertised."

I will have to fine company since its tablets do not contain an average of 250 mg of ibuprofon as

advertised -> there is claim alternative hypothesis,

Ha ≠ K

Ho = K

9.

tests are considered to be 95% reliable. In other words, if an individual lies, there is a 0.95 probability that

the test will detect a lie. Let there also be a 0.005 probability that the test erroneously detects a lie even

when the individual is actually telling the truth. Consider the null hypothesis, "the individual is telling the

truth," to answer the following questions.

The probability is, we reject Ho and Ho is true, so the probability of type I error is 0.05

From the conclusion of the test, we do not reject Ho and from the test there is Ho false, so the

probability is 0.005

the individual will reject Ho, or if we pot in notation the individual will Ho false and reject Ho

because the value from both of them more than other.

d. What is wrong with the statement,"! can prove that the individual is telling the truth on the basis of

the polygraph result."

A wrong one is the individuals didn’t want to say the truth, he is actually want to lie appealed say

the truth.

11.

H0: μ ≤ 12.6

A sample of 25 observations yields a sample mean of 13.4. Assume that the sample is drawn from a

normal population with a known population standard deviation of 3.2.

=P[13.4 – 12.6]

3.2/√25

= P(Z ≥ 1.25) -> 0.5 -0.3944 = 0.1056

Do not reject Ho since p values = 0.1056 > α = 0.1

c. Calculate the p -value if the above sample mean was based on a sample of 100 observations.

= P[13.4 – 12.6]

3.2/√100

= P -> (z ≥ 2.5) -> 0.5 -0.4938 = 0.0062

Reject Ho because p values < α=0.1 (0.1003)

13.

H0: μ ≥150

μH A<15:0

A sample of 80 observations results in a sample mean of 144. The population standard deviation is

known to be 28.

a. What is the critical value for the test with α = 0.01 and with α = 0.05?

There is two ways to find it -> you can search log to find value of Z or x̄, because both of them is

critical value

For a=0.01,

- the z method

Ɵ/√n

= 144 – 150

28/√80

= -1.9

- the x̄ method

x̄ = H – Za x Ɵ/√n

= 150 – 1.645 x 28/√80

= 144.852

b. Does the above sample evidence enable us to reject the null hypothesis at α = 0.01 ?

the answer is can not because since Z = -1.9 > -2.323, we cannot reject Ho or in simple word the

value of critical value z > zx

c. Does the above sample evidence enable us to reject the null hypothesis at α = 0.05?

yes, because since 144(x̄) < 144.852 (x̄a), this condition will reject Ho

19.

A researcher wants to determine if Americans are sleeping less than the recommended 7 hours of sleep

on weekdays. He takes a random sample of 150 Americans and computes the average sleep time of 6.7

hours on weekdays. Assume that the population is normally distributed with a known standard deviation

of 2.1 hours.

p= [z<6.7 – 7]

21/√150

= P(z < -1.973) = 0.024

b. Use the critical value approach to test the researcher's claim at α = 0.01.

= 7 - 2.323 x 2.1/√150

= 6.602

Since x̄ = 6.7 > x̄ 6.602 so do not reject Ho

Halaman 292

35.

A machine that is programmed to package 1.20 pounds of cereal is being tested for its accuracy. In a

sample of 36 cereal boxes, the sample weight and standard deviation are calculated as 1.22 pounds and

0.06 pound, respectively.

a. Set up the null and the alternative hypotheses to determine if the machine is working improperly, that

is, it is either underfilling or overfilling the cereal boxes.

Ho = H = 1.2pounds

Ha = H ≠ 1.2pounds

Z = x̄ - H

Ɵ/√n

= 1.22 – 1.2

0.06/√36

=2

c. Approximate the p-value. At a 5% level of significance, can you conclude that the machine is working

improperly? Explain.

= 0.0456

So reject Ho since p value = 0.0028 < α = 0.25 or in the other words, machine is working

improperly

x̄ = H ± Za x Ɵ/√n

= 1.2 ± α 0.1

= 1.2 + 0.2 = 1.4.....1

= 1.2 – 0.2 = 1.......2

So, (1 ≤ H ≤ 1.4)

42.

the prices in San Diego dropped by an average of 9.6% from a year earlier. Assume that the survey was

based on recent sales of 34 houses in San Diego that also resulted in a standard deviation of 5.2%. Can we

conclude that the mean drop of all home prices in San Diego is greater than the 7% drop in Los Angeles?

Use a 1% level of significance for the analysis.

H0 = 𝜇 ≤ 7

H1 = 𝜇 > 7

9,6% − 7%

t33 = 5,2%

= 2, 92

√34

Halaman 297.

55.

Massachusetts enacted a law that forbids cell phone use by drivers under the age o f 18. A policy analyst

w ould like to determine whether the law has decreased the proportion o f drivers under the age o f 18

who use a cell phone.

a. State the null and the alternative hypotheses to test the policy analyst's objective.

a. H0 = 𝜇 ≤ 0,82

H1 = 𝜇 > 0,82

c. Suppose a sample of 200 drivers under the age of 18 results in 150 who still use a cell phone while

driving. What is the value of the test statistic? What is the p-value?

0,75 − 0,82

z= = -1,822

0,82(1−0,82)

√

100

p value = 0,1401

d. Repeat this exercise using the critical value approach with α = 0.05.

61.

many banks are unwittingly training their online customers to take risks with their passwords and other

sensitive account information, leaving them more vulnerable to fraud (Yahoo.com, July 23, 2008). Even

web surfers could find themselves the victims of identity theft because they have been conditioned to

ignore potential signs about whether the banking site they are visiting is real or abogus site served up by

hackers. Researchers at the University of Michigan found design flaws in 78% of the 214 U.S. financial

institution websites they studied. Is the above sample evidence sufficient to conclude that more than

three out of four financial institutions that offer online banking facilities are prone to fraud? Use a 5%

significance level for the test.

a. H0 = 𝜇 ≤ 0,78

H1 = 𝜇 > 0,78

b.

0,75 − 0,78

z= = -0,145

0,78(1−0,78)

√

4

p value = 0,4443

5% = 0,05 . 0,4443 > 0,05

P value > 0,05, do not reject H0

Halaman 301

63.

A phone manufacturer wants to compete in the touch screen phone market. He understands that the lead

product has a battery life o f just 5 hours. The manufacturer claims that while the new touch phone is

more expensive, its battery life is more than twice as long as that o f the leading product. In order to test

the claim, a researcher samples 45 units of the new phone and finds that the sample battery life averages

10.5 hours with a sample standard deviation of 1.8 hours.

H0 = 𝜇 ≥ 10

H1 = 𝜇 < 10

b. Compute the value of the appropriate test statistic.

df = 45-1 = 44

10,5 − 10

t= 1,8

= 1,86

√45

c. Use the critical value approach to test the phone manufacturer's claim at α = 0.05.

so since t stat = 1,863

t crit = 1,68

t stat > t crit , we reject H0

d.Repeat the analysis with the p-value approach.

t 44 ; x = 1,863

x = p value < signifikan level

we reject H0

Halaman 301

65.

A city council is deciding whether or not to spend additional money to reduce the amount of traffic. The

council decides that it will increase the transportation budget if the amount of waiting time for drivers

exceeds 20 minutes. A sample of 32 main roads results in a mean waiting time of 22.08 minutes with a

standard deviation of 5.42 minutes. Conduct a hypothesis test at a 1% level of significance to determine

whether or not the city should increase its transportation budget.

Step 1

H0 = 𝜇 ≥ 20

H1 = 𝜇 < 20

N = 32

X bar = 22,08

S = 5,42

Alfa = 0,01

df = n-1 = 32-1 = 31

Step 3

22,8 − 20

t stat = t= 5,42

= 2,17

√32

t crit = t 31 ; 0,01 = 2,453

Conclusion

so, t stat < t crit , we do not reject H0, city should not increase the transportation budget

71.

A television network is deciding whether or not to give its newest television show a spot during prime

viewing time atnight. For this to happen, it will have to move one of its most viewed shows to another

slot. The network conducts a survey asking its viewers which show they would rather watch. The network

will keep its current lineup of shows unless the majority of the customers want to watch the new show.

The network receives 827 responses, of which 428 indicate that they would like to see the new show in

the lineup.

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