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Trump and the “Deep State” 52
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KEVIN P. RYAN, MARGARET G. WARNER, NEAL S. WOLIN, DANIEL H. YERGIN
I
n the 1940s, after two world wars playing the game, let alone managing
and a depression, Western policy- the team. Having spent more than half
makers decided enough was enough. a century believing American promises
Unless international politics changed in of open-ended support and basing their
some fundamental way, humanity itself identity and essential national policies on
might not survive much longer. it, the major U.S. allies couldn’t return
A strain of liberal idealism had been easily to a self-help system, even if they
integral to U.S. identity from the Ameri- wanted to—which none of them do.
can founding onward, but now power We asked leading experts on France,
could be put behind principle. Woodrow Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan,
Wilson had fought “to vindicate the Australia, Canada, and Mexico to report
principles of peace and justice in the life on how these countries are grappling
of the world as against selfish and auto- with the challenges of the Trump era.
cratic power and to set up amongst the These countries spent the first few
really free and self-governed peoples of months of the Trump administration in
the world such a concert of purpose and shock, then gradually realized they had to
of action as will henceforth ensure the accommodate to the new reality some-
observance of those principles.” Keeping how—at least for a while. So for now
his goals while noting his failures, the they watch, and wait, and hope the fever
next generation tried again with a revised passes soon. This is their story.
strategy, and this time they succeeded. The United States has dominated the
The result became known as the postwar world for generations now. Like a
liberal international order. Carnegie or a Rockefeller or a Gates, it
The founders of the order embraced has legitimized its extraordinary posi-
cooperation with like-minded powers, tion by making clear to all that it sees
rejecting isolationism and casting life as a positive-sum game—one in
themselves as player-managers of an which American power is used to
ever-expanding team. They bailed out benefit not just Americans but also all
the United Kingdom, liberated France, those around the world willing to play
rehabilitated Germany and Japan, bound by the rules, living and trading peace-
themselves to Canada and Mexico, and fully with one another. U.S. allies know
more. And for seven decades, the allies that better than anybody, which is why
were fruitful, and multiplied, and waxed they signed on to the order in the first
exceeding mighty. place. Unfortunately, Washington itself
Then arose up a new king who knew seems to have forgotten.
not Joseph. —Gideon Rose, Editor
Perhaps no group has been more
flummoxed by the Trump era than U.S.
allies, who awoke last November to find
Washington no longer interested in
Trump’s election has raised the specter
of a dangerous breakdown in
transatlantic relations.
—Stefan Theil
D
espite the upbeat characterization The election of Barack Obama certainly
of France as the United States’ swayed French public opinion. By the
oldest ally—from the Marquis summer of 2009, according to a survey
de Lafayette’s help in the American by the Pew Research Center, the United
Revolution to France’s gift of the Statue States’ favorability rating in France had
of Liberty and up through the shared soared to 75 percent (the highest score
fight in two world wars—the U.S.-French in Europe), up from 42 percent in 2003.
relationship has always been complicated. But relations between Obama and French
During the Cold War, French President President Nicolas Sarkozy were awkward.
Charles de Gaulle sided with the United Sarkozy found his American counterpart
States when it mattered, as during the cold, and Obama joked about Sarkozy’s
1962 Cuban missile crisis. But he also looks and his fast speech. Tensions over
clashed with U.S. leaders as he sought Iran went deeper: the French were wary
to assert French autonomy within nato of Obama’s outstretched hand and pushed
and position his country outside the for harsher sanctions. The nato inter-
U.S.-Soviet rivalry. In the 1980s, U.S. vention in Libya was another stumbling
President Ronald Reagan’s free-market block, with Sarkozy frustrated by Obama’s
policies made many French cringe (they decision to withdraw U.S. bombers ten
tended to overlook his successful efforts days into the operation.
to win the Cold War). But his French Then came Donald Trump, a U.S.
counterpart, François Mitterrand, also president like no other. During last
stood up to the Soviet Union, memora- fall’s U.S. campaign, France’s then
bly declaring in 1983, “The pacifists are president, the Socialist François Hollande,
in the West, but the missiles are in the spoke for many of his compatriots when
East.” After U.S. President George W. he said that Trump’s “excesses” made him
Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq, the want to “throw up.” On the right, Bruno
United States’ popularity in France hit Le Maire (who has since become France’s
rock bottom. Things got so bad that a finance minister) called Trump “a danger-
2003 poll found that 33 percent of French ous man.” Days after Trump’s election, a
hoped that the United States would survey found that 75 percent of French
lose to Saddam Hussein. It didn’t help held a negative opinion of the incoming
that Americans had started calling the U.S. president. Most were convinced
that he would damage U.S.-European
NATALIE NOUGAYRÈDE is a columnist for The relations and threaten world peace. Even
Guardian. Follow her on Twitter @nnougayrede. half of the supporters of the far-right
2 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
France’s Gamble
September/October 2017 3
Natalie Nougayrède
president who decides to revive the that. Rafale fighter jets were ready to
transatlantic link. take off for a joint U.S.-French opera-
To be sure, anti-Americanism hasn’t tion that French officials thought would
vanished from France. It’s still present set the stage for a major shift in the
on both extremes of the political spec- Syrian civil war and possibly lead Assad
trum. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former to accept a negotiated settlement. But
Trotskyist who won nearly 20 percent of within hours, Obama made a massive
the vote in the first round of this year’s U-turn, declining to intervene and thus
presidential election, loves to rant against failing to carry out his own threat.
U.S. policies while evincing little dis- As the ensuing years have made
comfort with those of various dictators. clear, the prolongation of the Syrian
Le Pen, for her part, was seen sipping conflict has not only produced untold
coffee in Trump Tower during her cam- human suffering; it has also inflicted
paign (without meeting the man), and severe damage on Europe, with the
she did applaud his election (“Congrat- resulting terrorism and migration
ulations to the American people, free!” fueling the rise of populism. It was
she tweeted). But her party’s nationalist that moment in 2013, and not Trump’s
ideology, as well as French opinion polls election, that made Paris realize that it
showing a deep dislike for Trump, made could no longer count on its ally across
it hard for her to speak of the prospect the Atlantic. Obama, with his adver-
of a Franco-American love fest. Instead, tised “pivot” to Asia, was already seen
she chose to accentuate her fondness as aloof from Europe, but now France’s
for Russian President Vladimir Putin. decision-makers learned that the White
Setting aside these populists, most House could demonstrate total disre-
French distinguish between Trump, gard for the objections of a close ally,
whom they see as an aberration, and and that it could go back on its word
the United States’ institutions, on which in ways that harmed European inter-
their hopes still rest. ests and international norms.
But even though many French look Macron was a senior aide to Hollande
back at Obama with nostalgia—so much in the Élysée when these events unfolded,
so that Macron sought out and received and they left deep traces on his own
his endorsement—he was not univer- thinking about Europe and the United
sally loved inside the Élysée Palace, the States. In an interview in June, he drew
official home of France’s president. In an explicit link between Obama’s turn-
fact, it is hard to overstate how livid the around in Syria and Putin’s aggression
French foreign policy establishment was in Ukraine, which shattered Europe’s
with Obama’s hesitant decision-making security architecture. “When you draw
style, particularly when it came to Syria. redlines, if you don’t know how to get
The paroxysm came in August 2013, them respected, you decide to be weak,”
when Obama, having warned Syria’s he said. He went on: “What embold-
Bashar al-Assad that the use of chemical ened Putin to act in other theaters of
weapons would represent the crossing operation? The fact that he saw he had
of a “redline,” prepared to enforce it in front of him people who had redlines
with an air strike when Assad did just but didn’t enforce them.”
4 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
France’s Gamble
Pas de deux: Trump and Macron at the Élysée Palace, Paris, July 2017
HOW TO TREAT TRUMP engineers, and “responsible citizens” to
Immediately after Macron took office, “find a second homeland” in France. And
fresh from an electoral battle against he launched a campaign to “make the
political forces that Trump seemed ready planet great again” that gained traction
to promote, he made it clear he would not on social media. For a moment, it seemed
submit to the U.S. president. At a nato as if Macron would single-handedly take
meeting on May 25, Macron managed on Trump and cast himself as the leader
to fend off Trump’s apparent attempt to of Western liberalism.
dominate him during a handshake. He In Paris, foreign policy grandees
wasted no time in capitalizing on the took to the television studios, barely
episode. “That’s how you ensure you are hiding their excitement: now was the
respected,” he told reporters. “You have to time to demonstrate a Gaullist inde-
show you won’t make small concessions— pendence, they claimed. Dominique de
not even symbolic ones.” Macron went Villepin, a former foreign minister and
POOL / REUTERS
September/October 2017 5
Natalie Nougayrède
had been raging in Parisian circles about For Macron, antagonizing the new
whether Hollande—and, before him, U.S. leader simply carries too many
Sarkozy—had been too “Atlanticist” in downsides—above all, the prospect of
orientation, too dangerously aligned jeopardizing cooperation on counter
with the United States. This hardly terrorism. French officials see national
matched the facts, considering the bilat- security as paramount. For years, France
eral tensions that existed under both has been positioning itself as the United
Sarkozy and Hollande. But Macron, it States’ most active European ally when
was thought, would offer a welcome it comes to counterterrorism, and since
course correction. the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris and
But those who hoped for a full-on the 2016 one in Nice, that has proved
clash with the United States would be truer than ever. It’s no mystery why:
disappointed. Macron, it turns out, with its constrained defense resources,
has recognized that anti-Trumpism France can ill afford to dispense with
can hardly serve as the animating idea U.S. help in the fight against the Islamic
behind French foreign policy. He has State (or isis) and other terrorist groups,
chosen his words carefully, eager to whether in the Middle East or the Sahel.
preserve relations with the White Trump’s election will not change the
House. Unlike German Chancellor centrality of counterterrorism in the
Angela Merkel, who has publicly con relationship. Indeed, Macron has de-
fronted Trump over his lack of commit- clared counterterrorism his “number one
ment to Western values, Macron has priority,” and his first meeting with
aimed narrowly—for instance, criticizing Trump centered on the fight against
the Trump administration’s stance on isis. But what Trump’s election will
climate change rather than declaring, as likely change is the way France man-
Merkel did, that the United States can ages the relationship. Like other U.S.
no longer be relied on. In the run-up to allies, France is struggling to navigate
the federal election in Germany in an increasingly indecipherable Wash-
September, Merkel has no doubt been ington power structure.
aware of the risks of appearing to agree
with Trump on anything. Macron is EUROVISION
much less constrained. In May, after Instead of seeing Trump’s election as a
meeting with Trump at the G-7 summit, reason to completely distance France
he said that despite their differences, from its ally across the Atlantic, Macron
he found Trump “pragmatic” and “some- is looking for ways to boost France’s
one who listens and who is willing to standing in its immediate neighbor-
work.” Macron even went so far as to hood. French influence in Europe has
invite Trump to this year’s Bastille Day waned in recent years, in turn weaken-
festivities in Paris. Macron’s team framed ing France’s position on the broader
the gesture as aimed at honoring the international stage. During the Obama
United States’ long-standing role in era, it was Germany that served as the
Europe, but it was hard not to see it as United States’ preferred interlocutor.
an attempt to generate good chemistry From a French standpoint, that was a
with Trump. highly unbalanced arrangement. Ever
6 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
France’s Gamble
since its creation 60 years ago, the Euro- toning down his rhetoric, he has already
pean project has been seen in Paris as started putting some of these ideas
an amplifier of French influence, not into practice.
an instrument of its marginalization. The centerpiece of Macron’s plan
Remember that it was only after France for Europe is to usher in a new era of
lost its empire in 1962, when it with- continental defense cooperation. The
drew from Algeria, that de Gaulle fully French president has supported the
committed to a common European creation of a “European defense fund”
endeavour. (He signed a friendship to pay for continent-wide projects, and
treaty with West Germany the very he envisages ad hoc European coalitions
next year.) for military interventions in and outside
In an important campaign speech in Europe. On this front, the French think
March, Macron described his vision it’s only natural that their country take
of France’s place in the shifting global the lead. The United Kingdom has
landscape: become obsessively inward-looking—
almost a disappearing act, to France’s
To those who have become accus- deep regret. In continental Europe,
tomed to waiting for solutions to
their problems from the other side
France remains the top military power,
of the Atlantic, I believe that devel- and the only one with a nuclear deter-
opments in U.S. foreign policy rent and a permanent seat on the un
clearly show that we have changed Security Council. For historical reasons,
eras. Of course, the alliance with Germany is still reluctant to expand
the United States is and remains its military and put soldiers in harm’s
fundamental, at the strategic, intel- way. France has no such qualms, and
ligence, and operational levels. . . . its political culture allows the presi-
But for now, the Americans seem dent to act militarily without much
to want to focus on themselves. parliamentary oversight.
The current unpredictability of U.S. But Macron recognizes that France
foreign policy is calling into ques- cannot go it alone, and that Germany
tion some of our points of reference,
is key to what he likes to describe as a
while a wide space has been left open
for the politics of power and fait “European renaissance.” His team is
accompli, in Europe, in the Middle considering taking steps toward deeper
East, and also in Asia. So it is up to integration of the eurozone, although
us to act where our interests are at much will depend on the outcome of the
stake and to find partners with whom German election, as well as on Macron’s
we will work to substitute stability capacity to implement economic reforms
and peace for chaos and violence. at home. In the future, expect Macron
to showcase his closeness to Merkel, as
That Macron hasn’t publicly when he went to great lengths to sup-
repeated those thoughts in so many port the chancellor’s refugee policies—
words since his election does not mean ones Trump has repeatedly castigated.
they have changed: rather, he recog- Reviving the so-called Franco-German
nizes the diplomatic constraints of engine is crucial to the continent’s
being in office. But while somewhat newfound sense of self-confidence,
September/October 2017 7
Natalie Nougayrède
momentum that Macron wants to “Europe needs to hold the fort for as
capitalize on. long as Trump remains in office.”
Macron has also called for reform of Frans Timmermans, the deputy
the European Union, which he sees as leader of the European Commission,
ineffective and out of touch. In his once said that there are two kinds of
view, it must build better defenses countries in Europe: “small ones, and
against terrorism, Russian aggression, those who don’t know yet they are small.”
and abusive trade practices (including The French would like to renew their
China’s). Macron had drawn up this country’s sense of grandeur, but France
wish list well before the U.S. election, is no superpower. The contrast with
but Trump’s maverick streak has made Trump may make them feel good about
those steps even more urgent, because themselves. But as Macron reflects on
Europe now questions the United States’ what he has called “the strategic void”
traditional security guarantees and left by the United States’ retreat, he
lacks a reliable partner on free trade. knows that he has no other option but
to address Europe’s weaknesses if he
NOW WHAT? wants France’s voice to matter. In other
Trump is arguably as much an opportu- words, he must hedge against “America
nity for Europe as he is a problem. But first” by focusing on Europe first.∂
those hoping that Europe will weather
the United States’ turn inward easily
should manage their expectations. For
starters, Europe can hardly fill the shoes
of the United States. There is no such
thing as a European nuclear umbrella
on offer, and talk of a “European army”
remains lofty. Rather, Europeans will
take more modest steps, such as pooling
their resources for the joint procurement
of military equipment. Besides, there are
powerful historical hang-ups that haven’t
entirely disappeared. Macron knows
well that it was France, not Germany,
that rejected plans for a European
army in 1954.
Given all the threats to Europe
today—Brexit, Putin’s aggression,
Turkey’s authoritarian turn, and the
specter of terrorism—Europe can only
try to mitigate some of the conse-
quences of the Trump phenomenon.
On this, Macron would surely agree
with how one former Obama adminis-
tration official framed things for me:
8 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Return to Table of Contents
I
n January, a disturbing report made aside, the core of his accusation—that
the rounds in Berlin’s corridors of Germany has benefited more from the
power. Written by Hans-Peter Bartels, global order than the country has contrib-
the German parliament’s commissioner uted to it—is largely correct. And the claim
for defense oversight, the 95-page docu- isn’t new: other U.S. presidents, including
ment laid out the abysmal state of the Barack Obama, have made similar points.
German military. Soldiers, the report For decades, Germany has sheltered under
said, lacked guns, ammunition, and the U.S. security umbrella and built its
night-vision goggles. Some new recruits economy on the back of the global eco-
were being forced to wait 45 weeks to nomic system created and upheld by the
get their uniforms. Only one-third of United States. Despite recent steps toward
Germany’s 123 Typhoon fighter jets taking a more active role in Europe—
were fully deployable, as were just five engineering a eurozone bailout deal, for
of its 60 Sikorsky CH-53 transport example, and brokering an agreement with
helicopters. Military training sometimes Turkey to stem migrant flows—Germany
featured “laughable improvisations,” has long shied away from global leadership.
the document said; earlier reports had Now, however, it has no choice but to act
described battle exercises during which if it wants to preserve the liberal order on
soldiers used broomsticks to stand in for which its prosperity is built. It must do
gun barrels and passenger vans instead more to promote free trade, take greater
of armored personnel carriers. The report responsibility for its own security, and push
was damning but not surprising: for Europe to make deep economic reforms.
years, the German government has Above all, Germany needs a serious
starved the Bundeswehr of funds, national debate on its vision for Europe
leaving it with only 170,000 soldiers, and the wider region, and on the role the
few of them with combat experience, country wants to play in the world.
down from over 500,000 in 1990.
MADE IN AMERICA
STEFAN THEIL is Executive Editor of Handels- More so than any other major European
blatt Global Magazine. country, today’s democratic and prosperous
September/October 2017 9
Stefan Theil
10 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Berlin’s Balancing Act
The odd couple: Trump and Merkel at the G-20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany, July 2017
more than any other country. Beyond pected. Merkel has tried to build a back
that, without continued U.S. support, channel to Trump by giving his daughter
the liberal world order that has gener- Ivanka the kind of reception in Berlin
ated German prosperity would crumble. normally accorded only to foreign
And on security, Merkel recognizes that leaders. On trade, German officials
Europe is nowhere near ready to go it tirelessly remind their U.S. counterparts
alone. “We need the military power of the that German companies employ 700,000
United States,” she said at the Munich people in the United States and that U.S.
Security Conference in February. As exporters depend just as heavily on the
difficult and unpredictable as Trump eu’s 500 million consumers as European
can be, Germany has no choice but to companies do on the United States’ 300
engage with him. million. Merkel has also confirmed that
Berlin is already doing so. German Germany aims to meet one of Trump’s
officials, including Christoph Heusgen, main demands by spending two percent
Merkel’s foreign and security policy of its gdp on defense by nato’s agreed
POOL / REUTERS
adviser, say that relations with the Trump date of 2024, up from the current figure
administration at the working level, of 1.2 percent. (Many observers, however,
including cooperation on defense and believe that Germany and several other
counterterrorism, are better than ex- nato members will not reach the target
September/October 2017 11
Stefan Theil
12 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
made an important start: in 2016, Berlin
hiked the Bundeswehr’s budget for the
first time since the end of the Cold War.
This year, Germany’s military spending
will rise by another eight percent, or
$3.1 billion, part of a $12 billion boost
in defense spending by non-U.S. nato
members planned before the U.S. presi-
dential election. The military is also
creating a new cyber and information
warfare command, to be staffed by New Jersey City
13,500 people. And it has bought new
equipment, including $500 million
University
worth of armored vehicles currently Designated as a National Center of
deployed by German peacekeepers in Academic Excellence in Information
Afghanistan and new frigates to protect Assurance/Cyber Security by the
National Security Agency and the U.S.
global trade routes from pirates. Department of Homeland Security.
To better coordinate European defense, NJCU offers the first doctoral degree in
the Bundeswehr now operates combined Civil Security Leadership, Management
units with forces from France, the Nether- and Policy in the United States, as well
as master’s and bachelor’s degree
lands, Poland, Romania, and other coun- programs in National Security Studies.
tries, which could potentially serve as the
basis for a pan-European fighting force. B.S.,
In the Baltics, the Bundeswehr has taken
a leading role in nato’s forward defense National Security Studies
by supplying the main contingent of a
multinational force in Lithuania, a M.S.,
monumental step given Germany’s National Security Studies
long-standing reluctance to confront
Russia. In July, Macron and Merkel D.Sc.,
announced the joint Franco-German Civil Security Leadership,
development of a next-generation Management and Policy
fighter jet. Germany is also helping
fund a new, $1.5-billion-a-year eu-wide For information on any of these
program for joint defense research. degree programs, please visit
Long before Trump’s election, Merkel njcu.edu/nationalsecurity.
and much of her government recognized
that Europe would have to do more when
it came to security. To do so, however, 201-200-2275
Berlin must confront a deeply ingrained securitystudies@njcu.edu
culture of pacifism and disengagement
in Germany. Although German soldiers 2039 John F. Kennedy Blvd.
are currently deployed in 16 foreign hot Jersey City, NJ 07305
spots, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Mali,
13
Stefan Theil
and the waters off Somalia, their man- ernment expected Russia to attempt to
dates almost always exclude combat. The influence this year’s German general
German navy’s new frigates can take election, perhaps by releasing data
on small craft but lack the weaponry stolen from the Bundestag, Germany’s
to confront an advanced adversary. In parliament, in 2015.
June, the Defense Ministry abandoned Despite all of this, many Germans
a plan to lease military drones from still oppose policies they perceive as
Israel, likely because the mere posses- anti-Russian. According to a Pew survey
sion of such lethal aircraft would have released in June, 25 percent of Germans
proved too controversial during an trust Putin, compared with just 11 percent
election year. As long as Germany does who trust Trump. Sanctions against Russia
not have a clear strategy for how and are unpopular with German businesses,
why it deploys its forces, its military which have closed some 500 Russian
upgrades will remain halfhearted. And subsidiaries since 2014. Merkel also
as long as the Bundeswehr’s mandates faces opposition from her own coalition
nearly always exclude combat, the coun- partner, the Social Democratic Party,
try’s allies will continue to worry that which takes a more sympathetic stance
Germany will shirk its responsibilities toward Russia. Merkel’s foreign minis-
in a security crisis. ter at the time of the Russian invasion
As part of its leadership role in of Ukraine, the Social Democrat Frank-
Europe’s foreign policy, Germany Walter Steinmeier, accused nato of “saber
must face up to the challenge to the rattling” by deploying units to the Baltic
continent’s postwar order posed by states—ignoring Russia’s threats and
Russia. In recent years, Russia has its far larger military buildup along its
worked to destabilize Western coun- western border. Merkel’s Social Demo-
tries by interfering in their elections, cratic predecessor, Gerhard Schröder,
spreading disinformation, supporting has worked as an executive for an energy
populist and far-right parties, and company with close ties to the Kremlin
undermining Western institutions such since leaving office and still wields influ-
as the eu. Russia is deeply involved ence in his party. Even Merkel herself
in German politics. It operates a has not been uniformly tough against
network of German-language propa- Russia. In June, after the U.S. Senate
ganda channels and hires prominent voted to strengthen sanctions on Russia
Germans as Kremlin lobbyists. If in the energy sector, she confirmed plans
Russian President Vladimir Putin to go ahead with the controversial Nord
wanted to keep the 2016 U.S. Demo- Stream 2 gas pipeline, to be built by a
cratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, out German-Russian consortium in which
of the White House, he likely has an Schröder is a key executive. The pipe-
even greater antipathy to Merkel, who line will run from Russia to Germany
has worked to ensure that eu sanctions and give Russia an even greater share
on Russia in response to its annexation of Europe’s energy market, in direct
of Crimea will remain in place. In early opposition to eu policy.
July, Thomas de Maizière, Germany’s To successfully deter Russia,
interior minister, said that the gov- Europe will depend on continued
14 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Berlin’s Balancing Act
U.S. engagement. So far, the Germans’ power for citizens (Germans pay some of
worst fears have been allayed. “One of the highest taxes in the world), higher
the issues we were most worried about government investment (for example, in
from early news of where the Trump education, infrastructure, and defense),
administration would go was that they and deregulation to spur more domestic
would make a deal [with Russia],” investment by German companies.
Heusgen told Stephen Hadley, a former These reforms, because they would
U.S. national security adviser, at the boost German demand for foreign
American Academy in Berlin in June. goods, could be Berlin’s most impor-
“This has proven wrong. . . . Trump tant contribution to any Franco-German
was very tough on Russia, very tough, plan to rebalance the eurozone.
and very clear also on Crimea.” U.S. Most difficult of all, German politi-
actions have also reassured Germany. cians will have to convince a skeptical
Washington has kept Russian sanctions public that Germany needs to carry its
in place, deployed more troops and fair share of Europe’s security burden.
equipment to Europe, and boosted Even in a time of rising tensions, most
funding by $1.4 billion, or 41 percent, Germans oppose any increase in military
for an Obama-era program to fortify spending. In a survey conducted in De-
nato’s eastern defenses. U.S. allies such cember 2016 by Forsa, only 32 percent
as Germany see such actions as more of Germans polled approved of increased
significant than Trump’s often incoherent outlays. A similarly small minority
public statements on Russia. endorsed the Bundeswehr’s participation
in combat missions. In the political
PHYSICIAN, HEAL THYSELF parties, academia, and the media,
In order for any effort to reform Europe skepticism toward the use of hard
to succeed, Germany will have to reform power is just as widespread. Too many
itself as well. Germany’s economy is years of collecting a rich peace dividend
doing well now, but its extreme depen- and standing by while others provided
dence on exports exposes it to great risks security have produced muddled thinking.
from the growing global anti-trade Many in the German elite still seem to
backlash. Within the eu, Germany’s take perpetual peace in Europe for
vast surpluses in trade and capital have granted, are reluctant to contemplate
not won the country any friends. Large that using hard power is ever necessary,
investments of surplus export earnings in and do not acknowledge that Germany
everything from Greek debt to Spanish has a bigger role to play in upholding
real estate have helped destabilize the the European order.
eurozone. Because German taxpayers Dealing with these political realities
end up holding the bag for the resulting would be difficult enough, but Trump’s
losses, moving to a more stable economic toxicity in Germany has made Merkel’s
model is in their own interest. task even harder. According to a June
To rebalance its economy so that it survey by Infratest dimap, 92 percent
relies less on exports, Germany needs a of Germans disapprove of Trump; only
fresh round of reforms to unleash domes- five percent approve. And only 21 percent
tic growth. That means more spending of Germans asked said they considered
September/October 2017 15
Stefan Theil
16 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Return to Table of Contents
O
ne sunny afternoon in Covent European views of Trump fall into
Garden this past summer, a three main camps. The first and largest
street performer realized that sees him as a living fossil, the sort of
an audience volunteer sounded Ameri- “ugly American” common enough in
can. “Please tell me you’re not a Trump earlier eras, focused less on responsible
supporter!” the busker pleaded. “Er, no, global leadership than on nativism,
I’m not,” stammered the embarrassed mercantilism, and gunboat diplomacy.
young man—at which point, the London This camp takes it for granted that Trump
crowd cheered. is destabilizing and an embarrassment
Most Europeans find Donald and wonders only whether he will be
Trump alien and contemptible and a checked and balanced enough by the
man unsuited for the U.S. presidency. U.S. Constitution.
Some will admit that he has at least A second, smaller camp is more
introduced them to a large part of the pragmatic. Its members point out that
American public they seldom encoun- the Trump administration’s actions
ter: the ordinary citizens who feel have been more conventional than its
disrespected and exploited by globalist rhetoric and that the president’s tweets
elites they see as rigging the system have not represented U.S. policy. The
against them. Trump gives his sup- third, smallest camp includes Trump’s
porters a rare sense that someone at European supporters, populists and
the top understands their feelings of nationalists across the continent who
defeat and humiliation—and Europeans are delighted by such an emphatic
who simply dismiss him will continue vindication of their worldview from
to underestimate the power of the such an unexpected source.
passions that fueled his rise. Germany is the epicenter of the
continent’s anti-Trump feelings, which
is hardly surprising given how the brash
DAVID GOODHART is Head of the Demogra- New Yorker is a living negation of mod-
phy, Immigration, and Integration Unit at Policy ern Germany’s liberal cosmopolitanism,
Exchange and the author of The Road to
Somewhere: The Populist Revolt and the Future not to mention its attachment to pooled
of Politics. sovereignty and a cooperative, rules-based
September/October 2017 17
David Goodhart
international order. “We, along with the Danish People’s Party, are also
Japan, are the successful children of more circumspect.
postwar America, so it is especially There remains a striking difference
painful and confusing for us to see the between how Trump is perceived in
institutions that have created our reha- western Europe and how he is seen in
bilitation, such as nato and the eu, the former Soviet bloc. “Attitudes to
trashed by our own parent,” said Klaus- Trump’s America are different in eastern
Dieter Frankenberger, foreign editor of Europe, where the Russian threat is the
the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. And main concern, leaving little room for
the tensions have been compounded by moral grandstanding towards a vital
bilateral differences on issues such as ally; instead, the attention focuses, with
trade and Iran. cold-eyed realism, on who can provide
Still, some things about the new the hard defense capabilities needed to
administration have gone over well in deal with the security situation at hand,”
Europe. For example, Trump’s decision notes Gabriel Elefteriu, a foreign policy
to launch an air strike against Syria in specialist at the London think tank Policy
support of nonproliferation norms and Exchange. And in the east, despite
his skepticism about economic global- Trump’s rhetoric, recent U.S. actions
ism have pleased many on the European have been conventional and welcome.
left (although not enough to offset their The Poland-based Enhanced Forward
disgust with what are widely considered Presence Battle Group, part of a nato
to be his racist immigration policies). operation and built around an American
His coolness toward nato and the eu, unit, has deployed in the field as planned.
ironically, has given a welcome boost to Multinational military exercises have
those favoring a strong Europe united continued at a high tempo. And the
under Franco-German leadership. And administration has sought increased
of course, Trump has real friends among funding for the European Reassurance
the continent’s populists and right-wing Initiative, an effort to strengthen deter-
nationalists, who together account for rence in the region that was launched
about one-fifth of the European elector- after Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
ate. He has embraced some of the In fact, in most areas, U.S. policy has
populists in return, most notably Nigel changed far less under Trump than the
Farage, former leader of the uk Inde- breathless media coverage would suggest.
pendence Party. And Hungarian Prime As Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general
Minister Viktor Orban, an explicit propo- of nato, said at a security conference in
nent of “illiberal democracy,” actually June, “Judge him by his actions, not his
endorsed Trump’s candidacy during words.” Even his most egregious act to
the campaign. date, in European eyes—pulling the
In recent months, Orban’s enthusiasm United States out of the Paris climate
has waned, thanks in part to Trump’s accord—was more symbolic than signifi-
withdrawal from the Paris agreement cant. The treaty is voluntary, the planned
on climate change. And some European emission reductions are small, and the
populist parties closer to the mainstream, bulk of U.S. contributions to tackling
such as Alternative for Germany and climate change will continue to be
18 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The United Kingdom’s Trump Trap
Stiff upper lip: May and Trump at the G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, July 2017
driven by technological innovation and prospect of massive demonstrations
actions by state and local governments causing a public relations nightmare,
and the private sector. the trip was quietly dropped (although
it may be revived down the road).
MAY’S DILEMMA In responding to Trump, May has
Trump’s dealings with the United King- had to balance competing concerns. The
dom have blown hot and cold. Cheered United Kingdom’s planned withdrawal
by the former real estate developer’s from the eu makes its “special relation-
support for Brexit, British Prime Minister ship” with the United States more signifi-
Theresa May’s Conservative government cant than ever, and Trump has backed a
initially offered Trump the pomp and comprehensive post-Brexit trade deal.
ceremony of a full state visit, including Staying too close to Trump, however,
an audience with the queen. But as the could complicate the United Kingdom’s
months went on, Trump managed to other major diplomatic relationships.
alienate people across the British political The value of American support for
spectrum—capping it off by responding the United Kingdom’s controversial
to a terrorist attack in London in June new approach to Europe is crucial,
with an absurd criticism of Sadiq Khan, even if it has scarcely been registered
POOL / REUTERS
the city’s mayor, who happens to be by most commentators. Had the Demo-
Muslim. With nearly two million British cratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the
citizens having signed a petition calling presidential election, as expected, for
for the visit to be canceled and the example, the British government would
September/October 2017 19
David Goodhart
now be even more isolated, and its path on U.S. power to boot). The problem,
toward Brexit, even more complicated. however, is that Trump seems to represent
A Clinton administration would likely not a more prudent internationalism but
have continued its predecessor’s opposi- rather crass chauvinism.
tion to the United Kingdom’s withdrawal European policymakers may have
from the eu and turned a cold shoulder occasionally been frustrated with the
to any new bilateral trade deal. Obama administration’s foreign policy,
The British government has navigated but they could at least be confident that
these shoals relatively skillfully so far. there was one and that it displayed some
Trying to duplicate the relationship internal logic and coherence. No such
between British Prime Minister Tony confidence exists today, with techno-
Blair and U.S. President George W. crats no better than anybody else at
Bush, May has triangulated, casting predicting or explaining Trump’s idio
herself as a bridge between the head- syncratic behavior.
strong Americans and a worried Europe. Despite all the tension, there is
The strategy was developed and imple- nonetheless an element of theater in
mented effectively right after the surprise the current transatlantic rupture, with
Trump victory, with May being the first all sides using the crisis to advance their
foreign leader to visit Trump at the White own agendas and narratives. The idea
House. At a time when her counterparts that Trump’s emergence has proved
were frantic over Trump’s anti-nato that Europe cannot rely on the United
comments, she was able to extract some States forever is welcome to those who
qualified support for the alliance from want the continent to pursue a more
the president, reminding him of the independent course. And the president
value of the transatlantic partnership. surely finds European opposition con
It is also interesting to consider how venient for mobilizing his domestic
things might have played out had Trump political base. So Trump pretends to be
won but Brexit lost, with David Cameron a populist nationalist, and European
remaining British prime minister. Lon- elites pretend to be distraught. But
don would probably have tacked closer neither side actually wants to seriously
to the pan-European chorus of Trump disrupt the alliance, at least not yet.
critics, or at least gone to ground—and The Trump era has jangled nerves
one could easily imagine the new presi- on both sides of the Atlantic. But for all
dent being so annoyed that he would the shouting, it is not at all clear yet
have begun unraveling the alliance in what major lasting impact, if any, it will
earnest. May’s maneuvering has helped have on U.S.-European relations.∂
prevent tensions from boiling over and
kept her country’s options open.
The consensus in and around White-
hall is that the Trump presidency repre-
sents a painful but useful wake-up call
for liberal internationalism, which had
begun to slip into a less robust univer-
salistic globalism (and one free-riding
20 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
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ADVANCING A
MODERN VISION
OF SECURITY.
J
apan has more reason to worry than tial election was a surprise not just for
any other country in the world about the Japanese government but also for
who becomes the president of the the Japanese public. Although some
United States. In contrast to U.S. allies questioned whether President Barack
and partners in Europe, which are sur- Obama’s “pivot” to Asia had delivered
rounded mostly by friendly states, Japan as much as promised, the Obama presi-
faces many neighbors that are undemo- dency had been seen as successful from
cratic and increasingly hostile. Since the Japanese point of view. The U.S.
January, North Korea has launched missiles military’s quick and effective response
in Japan’s vicinity 11 times, culminating to Japan’s 2011 earthquake and tsunami
in a test of an intercontinental ballistic was widely appreciated. Caroline Kennedy,
missile (icbm) on July 4. China has Obama’s ambassador to Japan from 2013
continued its buildup of islands in the until earlier this year, was very popular.
South China Sea. And in the face of such And in his final months in office, Obama
developments, Japan remains heavily became the first U.S. president to ever
dependent on the United States for its visit Hiroshima, where he delivered a
own security. widely praised speech. According to a poll
The unexpected victory of Donald conducted by the Japanese government
Trump in the U.S. presidential election just before the U.S. election, 84 percent
last year should have set off shock waves of the Japanese public felt affinity toward
in Japan. Before and during the campaign, the United States, 87 percent believed
he repeatedly criticized Tokyo, accusing that current relations between the two
it of manipulating Japan’s currency and countries were “on the whole good,” and
unfairly shutting out U.S. cars from 95 percent considered the future devel-
the Japanese market. He questioned the opment of U.S.-Japanese relations to be
U.S.-Japanese alliance, arguing that important for the two countries and for
Japan and South Korea should cough Asia and the Pacific region.
up more money to retain U.S. military After Trump’s election, conservative
Japanese pundits, most notably the
TAKAKO HIKOTANI is Gerald L. Curtis populist former mayor of Osaka, Toru
Associate Professor of Modern Japanese
Politics and Foreign Policy at Columbia Hashimoto, argued that the Trump
University. presidency was a welcome opportunity
September/October 2017 21
Takako Hikotani
for Japan to become more independent golf. Yet their so-called honeymoon,
and “stand on its feet.” Most Japanese, which extended from a November
however, were concerned. In a Decem- 2016 get-together at Trump Tower to a
ber 2016 poll, 61 percent of respondents February 2017 weekend at Mar-a-Lago,
said they were “worried” about U.S.- was not a simple expression of Abe’s
Japanese relations under Trump. In affection for Trump. Rather, it was a
another poll, conducted shortly after well-calculated attempt by Japanese
Trump’s inauguration, 84 percent of officials to manage Trump, drawing
respondents said they feared that the on two basic strategies.
world would become less stable under The first was to “disarm” Trump.
Trump, and more than half said that Immediately after the election, there
U.S.-Japanese relations would worsen. were fears that Trump would stick to
And according to the Pew Research his anti-Japanese accusations from the
Center, Japanese confidence in the campaign, especially given Abe’s meet-
U.S. leadership fell from 78 percent to ing with the Democratic presidential
24 percent from the end of Obama’s candidate Hillary Clinton during the
presidency to the beginning of Trump’s, un General Assembly in September
80 percent of the public said they consid- 2016. After Trump’s victory, Japanese
ered Trump arrogant, and 56 percent officials immediately went to work to
said they considered him dangerous. set up a meeting, and Abe and Trump’s
And yet so far, there has been no November encounter consisted of gift
“Trump shock” in Japan. Rather than giving (Trump got a golden golf club)
panicking, the Japanese government has and cordial conversation, with sensitive
engaged in effective “Trump manage- topics off the table. It was considered
ment,” with the pragmatic support of successful precisely because it was so
the Japanese public. But that approach insubstantial. It lasted twice as long as
has started to show its limits. Going its scheduled time, and Japanese offi-
forward, Tokyo will have to step up and cials reportedly took the presence of
do more to preserve the liberal demo- Trump’s daughter Ivanka as a sign that
cratic order, which now lacks leadership the Trump family had embraced Japan.
from Washington. This will mean a role Expectations for the first official
reversal for Japan: rather than being the meeting after Trump’s inauguration were
beneficiary of a liberal order led by the higher. According to reports, multiple
United States, it now must do everything psychologists offered Abe advice for
it can to save that order—and keep the handling Trump: “no matter what Trump
United States from withdrawing from says, one should always express approval
it altogether. before any signs of disagreement,” and
“never refer to a topic that is unknown
DISARM AND DISENGAGE to Trump.” Some officials worried about
Trump and Japanese Prime Minister the length of the meeting: Abe and Trump
Shinzo Abe seem to have a natural were expected to spend 11 hours together,
affinity: both have pledged to restore including over 27 holes of golf and four
their countries to greatness, both favor meals. But the preparations seemed to
other strong leaders, and both enjoy pay off: the personal rapport continued,
22 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trump’s Gift to Japan
Grin and bear it: Abe and Trump in the Oval Office, February 2017
and Trump apparently made no further by surprise by statements that U.S.
complaints about the trade deficit, Secretary of Defense James Mattis
currency manipulation, or the cost of made when he visited Japan in early
maintaining U.S. forces in Japan. February. He called the maintenance
The second strategy was to “disen- of U.S. forces in Japan a “model of
gage” Trump from key policy matters. cost-sharing” and hailed Japan’s efforts
Japanese officials feared that Trump’s to increase its defense spending. More
transactional dealmaking approach, and important, he emphasized the enduring
especially his coupling of economic and value of the U.S.-Japanese alliance and
security matters, would force them to confirmed that the United States would
make concessions on trade in exchange continue to back Japanese administration
for maintaining the alliance. So they of the contested Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands,
worked to put economic and security explicitly affirming that Washington
policy in separate negotiating channels, considers the islands to be covered by
both away from the White House. Article 5 of the U.S.-Japanese security
JIM BOU RG / REUTE RS
The security discussion progressed treaty, which commits the United States
more quickly and successfully than to defend Japanese territories against
expected. According to a report in the attack. Having gotten everything they
Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, wanted from Mattis, the Japanese had
Japanese officials were gleefully taken only to hope that Trump would not
September/October 2017 23
Takako Hikotani
24 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Accordingly, as long as the bilateral
relationship is successfully managed,
most of the Japanese public seems
willing to overlook other controversial
aspects of Trump’s presidency. Trump
is often portrayed as a bully in Japa-
nese media, but many people in Japan
seem to have decided that it is better
to have the bully on your side. Opposi-
tion parties and some pundits may
criticize Abe for “sucking up” to Trump.
Overall, however, the strong prefer-
ence for the status quo and the relative
lack of sensitivity to many of Trump’s
moves have moderated such criticism.
STEPPING UP
For all the success of disarmament
and disengagement thus far, the limits
of Tokyo’s Trump management are
starting to become clear. For one thing,
Trump himself has proved even less
predictable than expected; disarming
him in one meeting offers only so
much comfort, since he could reverse
course soon afterward. Disengage-
ment, meanwhile, has been challenged
by Trump’s recent tweets on North
Korea and by complaints that Trump
made just prior to the G-20 meeting
in July regarding market access for
American products.
More fundamentally, the broader shift
in U.S. foreign policy—the retreat from
international institutions, the uncertain-
ties about U.S.-Chinese relations, the
growing threat of conflict on the Korean
Peninsula—has forced Japan to think
beyond Trump management. This
means reconsidering both how Japan
can strengthen its own defense capa-
bilities and how it can expand its
policy portfolio and thereby help
bolster international institutions.
25
Takako Hikotani
The most acute security concern 31 percent said they would favor a
today is North Korea. Security experts preemptive strike once North Korea
have long argued that the successful had started to prepare for a launch.
North Korean development of an A counterattack capability would
icbm that could reach the continental add an additional layer of deterrence
United States would be a game changer against North Korea, but it might also
for the U.S.-Japanese alliance, under- affect the strategic calculation of other
mining the value of Washington’s secu- actors in the region. Japan needs to be
rity guarantee. Pyongyang’s apparent careful about the message it might send
achievement of this goal will thus to other countries, as well as such a
likely spur greater Japanese public capability’s implications for the relation-
support for moves to enhance Japan’s ship with the United States, since Japan
defense capabilities. In June, the ruling would need to rely on U.S. detection
Liberal Democratic Party’s Research and intelligence support in order to
Committee on Security released recom- carry out a strike. Still, despite the
mendations for defense planning for challenges associated with new Japanese
fiscal years 2019 to 2023. It advocated capabilities, Tokyo has no choice but to
increased spending, with nato’s target consider its options more broadly than
of two percent of gdp as a reference before, especially as Washington recali-
point, and introducing new land-based brates its own approach to North Korea.
missile defense systems. On the economic front, mean-
The committee also endorsed an while, Japan is contending not just
earlier proposal to consider acquiring with Washington’s withdrawal from
counterattack capabilities, including the tpp but also with larger questions
cruise missiles. This is not a new idea: of regional economic order. In April,
since 1956, the Japanese government a day after meeting with Pence, Aso
has considered striking an enemy base stated that Japan would proceed with
to be permissible within its definition the tpp. Since then, discussion among
of self-defense under the constitution the remaining 11 countries has contin-
if there is an imminent threat to Japan ued, in an effort to come up with an
that cannot be dealt with by other means. amended agreement that leaves out the
But the growing North Korean threat United States. But it will not be easy.
has made it easier for proponents to make Countries such as Malaysia and Viet-
their case, and the added uncertainty nam will not see the same advantages
coming from Washington has muted to the tpp without U.S. participation,
critical reactions. In an April poll and thus the negotiations must arrive
conducted by the conservative-leaning at a means of keeping the door open
newspaper Sankei Shimbun, 91 percent for later U.S. membership.
of respondents reported feeling threat- The most important regional eco-
ened by Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons nomic question is whether to compete,
development. Forty-five percent said coexist, or cooperate with Chinese expan-
they would support a Japanese coun- sion in the region, especially Beijing’s
terattack after a North Korean missile Belt and Road Initiative. As the Trump
had been launched toward Japan, and administration has weakened U.S.
26 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trump’s Gift to Japan
September/October 2017 27
Return to Table of Contents
I
n late January, just days after taking President Vladimir Putin—an opponent
office, U.S. President Donald Trump of the liberal order and an adversary of
sat down in the Oval Office for his the United States—he treated their prime
first official call with Australian Prime minister with disrespect? Some thought
Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Seated around that Turnbull had been unwise to broach
the Resolute Desk with Trump were the refugee issue at all, given Trump’s
Michael Flynn, then Trump’s national statements on immigration. Nevertheless,
security adviser; Steve Bannon, Trump’s Australians of all persuasions concluded
chief strategist; and Sean Spicer, the that Trump’s behavior had been both
White House press secretary. It should appalling and revealing.
not have been a difficult or fractious Australians are not delicate flowers.
exchange: it was an introductory conver- They have been known to use rough
sation with the leader of the United language. The problem was not the phone
States’ most reliable ally, the only coun- call itself but what it represented. It
try to fight beside the United States in crystallized broader concerns about
every major conflict of the twentieth Trump’s worldview, which may have
and twenty-first centuries. significant consequences for Australian
But instead of a friendly discussion, interests and for Australian foreign policy
the exchange was “hostile and charged,” in the coming years. It is conceivable that
according to senior U.S. officials speaking Trump’s presidency may push Australia
to The Washington Post. Trump “boasted away from the United States. But hope-
about the magnitude of his electoral fully, the lasting result will instead be a
college win” and “blasted” Turnbull over a more ambitious Australia that seeks to
refugee-transfer agreement that Australia shape its external environment and con
had reached with the Obama administra- tribute to a stable balance of power in
tion. He told Turnbull, “This was the Asia and the rest of the world. With
worst call by far,” and then abruptly Trump in the White House, it is time
for Australians to think big.
MICHAEL FULLILOVE is Executive Director
of the Lowy Institute, in Sydney, Australia, and UP HIMSELF
the author of Rendezvous With Destiny: How Australians had made up their minds
Franklin D. Roosevelt and Five Extraordinary
Men Took America Into the War and Into the about Trump long before that call. Polling
World. Follow him on Twitter at @mfullilove. conducted in early 2016 by the Lowy
28 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Down and Out Down Under
Institute (which I direct) had found that ings and the limitations of the people
they favored Hillary Clinton over Trump around her.
in the presidential race by a ratio of seven Last year, Hanson was elected to
to one. Almost half of Australian adults Parliament for the second time. Later,
polled agreed that Australia should she toasted Trump’s electoral victory
distance itself from the United States if it with champagne outside Parliament
elected a president like Trump. In the final House. She followed his lead in de-
year of the Obama administration, a Pew scribing Putin as a strong leader, even
Research Center poll found, 84 percent though Putin’s proxies took the lives of
of Australians were confident that the U.S. 38 Australians when they shot down a
president would “do the right thing” in civilian airliner over eastern Ukraine in
world affairs; under Trump, that figure 2014. She recently called for a Trump-
has fallen to 29 percent. style travel ban on Muslims. One year
There are three reasons for Trump’s after her election, however, Hanson is
Antipodean unpopularity. First, his in trouble again, with indifferent public
personal style runs contrary to Australian support, party infighting, and investi-
sensibilities. Trump is high energy; gations into her campaign finances.
Australians are low-key. Trump cannot The third, and most important, reason
stop talking, especially about himself; Australians do not like Trump is that
Australians are laconic and taciturn. They his foreign policy instincts—expressed
have no tolerance for bluster and prefer repeatedly over the past three decades—
self-deprecation to self-aggrandizement. run directly counter to their own. Trump
The greatest sin in Australia is to be wants the United States to play a shrunken
“up yourself.” role in the world; Australia wants the
Second, Australians have themselves United States to play a significant one.
been down a populist path and found that Trump is sympathetic to isolationism;
it leads nowhere. More than 20 years ago, Australians are inclined toward interna-
they first elected to the Federal Parlia- tionalism. Trump is an alliance skeptic;
ment their own right-wing nativist with a Australians are alliance believers. Trump
famous hairstyle, Pauline Hanson. They is hostile to free trade; Australia is a
soon realized that Hanson had questions trading nation. Trump swoons over
to ask but no answers to give. autocrats and strongmen; Australia is an
Hanson has now run for election at old democracy and a free society. Trump
the state and federal levels 11 times, and decries globalists; nearly four in five
succeeded only twice. She is almost as Australians polled by the Lowy Institute
well known for starring on reality televi- agreed that globalization is mostly good
sion shows—including Celebrity Apprentice for Australia.
Australia—as she is for serving in Australia’s primary strategic instinct
Parliament. Like Trump, Hanson feeds has long been to make common cause
on the alienation of people who feel with a like-minded global ally. But
they have been left behind. But when Trump’s plan to “make America great
she is elected to a position of responsi- again” renounces several of the pillars of
bility, support drains away, as Australians American greatness—and compromises
recognize both her personal shortcom- core Australian interests.
September/October 2017 29
Michael Fullilove
30 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Down and Out Down Under
have argued for greater independence order will be centered on Beijing. Some
from the United States and a stronger even say that Australia should use its
relationship with China. influence in Washington to encourage
The foreign policy debate in Australia the United States to share power in Asia.
has become bipolar. The security estab- That argument neglects the full benefits
lishment is uneasy about China’s new of the U.S. alliance for Australia. The
assertiveness and unsettled by evidence alliance provides a security guarantee,
September/October 2017 31
Michael Fullilove
intelligence that helps Canberra under- to Asia, while putting nothing new
stand the world and counter threats to in its place.
Australia, and military cooperation that In many ways, the administration seems
keeps the Australian Defence Force sharp. to have shrunk “Asia” to the dimensions
Why should Australia turn away from an of North Korea. Yet for all the focus on
old ally, especially one that remains the how to counter Pyongyang’s nuclear
most powerful country in the world and weapons and missile programs, there is
with whom it shares both a worldview almost as much confusion about Trump’s
and an interest in the status quo? Why North Korea policy as there was a few
should Australia tilt toward a power months ago about the location of the USS
with an uncertain domestic future and Carl Vinson, the aircraft carrier said by the
an uneven foreign policy? Unsolicited U.S. military and the White House to be
gifts to rising powers are usually pocketed heading toward North Korea when it was
rather than reciprocated. And given the in fact going in the opposite direction.
doubts about China’s future trajectory, The administration has proclaimed that
there is little reason to move preemptively “the era of strategic patience is over,” in
toward Beijing. Instead, Australia should Pence’s formulation, but said much less
hedge against the risk of future Chinese about what new era has begun. Until
rashness by keeping the United States recently, Trump appeared to believe that
deeply engaged in the region. China would pressure Pyongyang to
For seven decades, a formidable U.S. freeze its programs. Predictably, this has
forward presence—in the form of service not happened: Beijing’s interests on the
members stationed in Japan and South Korean Peninsula are far from identical
Korea, along with the U.S. Navy’s Seventh to Washington’s.
Fleet—has underpinned regional stability. This belief warped the administration’s
It has kept a lid on interstate friction and broader posture toward the region. Far
maintained an open regional order that from confronting China, as he threatened
has allowed the rise of successive Asian to do during the campaign, Trump coddled
countries. Not surprisingly, few Asians it, acting overly deferential in an effort
relish the prospect of a region dominated to obtain Chinese assistance. He initially
by China. Instead, most want a balance of created leverage with Chinese President
forces in Asia, with a general acceptance Xi Jinping by questioning Washington’s
of international norms and the rule of law, “one China” policy, but then gave that
along with the long-term presence of the leverage away in exchange for nothing
United States. more than an introductory phone call.
Before long, Trump had declined to
ADRIFT IN ASIA declare Beijing a currency manipulator,
The Trump administration lacks an dropped his tough campaign-trail rhetoric,
overarching approach to Asia, despite and hosted Xi at Mar-a-Lago, with his
having sent a string of senior officials, grandchildren greeting the visiting delega-
including Mattis, Tillerson, and Vice tion with songs and poetry in Mandarin.
President Mike Pence, to visit the Trump’s China policy is probably more
region. It has rejected the Obama transactional and ad hoc than deliberately
administration’s “pivot,” or “rebalance,” acquiescent. In July, amid signs that the
32 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Down and Out Down Under
president was becoming disillusioned during the Boer War, and China during
with Xi, the administration sanctioned the Boxer Rebellion; the Dardanelles,
Chinese businesses engaged in illicit northern France, Flanders, Mesopotamia,
dealings with the North Koreans, Egypt, and Palestine in World War I;
approved an arms deal with Taiwan, Greece, Crete, North Africa, Burma,
and moved forward with freedom-of- Malaya, Papua, and New Guinea in
navigation operations by U.S. naval World War II; and Korea, Vietnam, East
vessels near disputed territories in the Timor, the Solomon Islands, Afghanistan,
South China Sea. In the long term, and Iraq more recently. Australia also has
however, an accommodation between a history of vigorous involvement in
Trump and Xi seems as likely as an international institutions: Australians are
argument. It is hard to believe that joiners by instinct and practice. A country
Trump cares about a few half-submerged of Australia’s size benefits greatly from an
water features in the South China Sea. international order in which the rules of
And it is possible to imagine Trump, the road are well established and widely
an unbeliever in alliances, cutting some observed. Australian governments have
kind of grand bargain with China, per- always been eager to join (and, if neces-
haps trading away security interests in sary, help erect) institutions of global
return for trade concessions. governance. At the San Francisco confer-
Most Australians would prefer that ence in 1945, Australia fought for and won
Trump adopt a different approach—one a greater role for smaller powers in the
that takes a firmer stance than the Obama new United Nations. Ever since, it is has
administration did when it comes to been an active stakeholder in the liberal
deterring Chinese efforts to coerce other international order. Now, however, it faces
Asian countries, while still cooperating a U.S. president who is not liberal in his
with Beijing when appropriate. Such a outlook, nor international in his posture,
strategy, however, would involve a greater nor orderly in his behavior.
commitment of U.S. resources and an The United States’ unique position
acceptance of greater risk. Few Australians in the world is based on more than its
think that the Trump administration, strategic clout. Washington remains the
which includes no Asia hands of note, only capital capable of running a truly
has the deftness to pull it off. global foreign policy and projecting
military power anywhere on earth, but
PRESENT AT THE DESTRUCTION it is not just the United States’ gdp or
Australian expectations of Washington blue-water navy that secures its position.
go beyond Asia. Canberra also looks to the The idea of the United States continues
United States to play the role of global to fascinate and attract: a superpower that
leader. That’s because Australia has always is open, democratic, and meritocratic; a
seen itself as a country with global inter- country of awesome power but also dignity
ests, if not global capabilities. The many and restraint. The United States is strong
distant theaters in which Australians have est when it works with others.
served are inscribed in the cloisters of the Franklin Roosevelt understood the
Australian War Memorial, in Canberra. power of his country’s appeal to the world.
They include the Sudan, South Africa With his ready laugh and cigarette holder
September/October 2017 33
Michael Fullilove
held at a jaunty angle, he was the quintes- prospect; nor, given the new interna-
sential American optimist. By signing on tional circumstances, can it afford to
to the Atlantic Charter (with its provi- fall back on familiar approaches.
sions against territorial aggrandizement The real question is whether Austra-
and for freedom of trade and the seas) lians will choose to be spectators at the
and pressing his British ally on decoloni- global game or participants in it. As the
zation, Roosevelt signaled that other United States does less under Trump,
nations mattered in the American world- Australia should do more. Australia needs
view. For the post–World War II settle- to prosecute a larger foreign policy. It
ment, he designed institutions of global should work as closely as possible with
order that gave others a voice even while its long-standing ally, mainly by working
ensuring American predominance. with other partners in Washington rather
Trump presents a different face to than relying on the president himself. But
the international community. He is not Canberra cannot look at the world solely
persuaded that the United States does through an alliance prism. It needs to
well when others do well: in fact, he bolster international institutions, many
seems to prefer that others do poorly. of which it helped establish, but toward
He is contemptuous of international which Trump is ill disposed. And it must
institutions that, for the most part, strengthen its connections in Asia, a
serve a useful function for the United region in which Trump seems uninter-
States. He is oblivious to the advantages ested. That means working with China
of being at the center of the global order. when their interests overlap but also
He is dubious about the value of alli- thickening its ties with Asian democra-
ances, even though China or Russia cies such as India, Indonesia, Japan,
would dearly love to have an alliance and South Korea. Greater cooperation
network as powerful and cost effective with like-minded regional powers can
as that of the United States. Trump’s be an important hedge against the dual
policies alienate other countries, and hazards of a reckless China and a
they also damage U.S. interests. feckless United States.
Seventy years ago, the administration Australia must try to shape its environ-
led by Roosevelt’s successor, Harry ment, and contribute to Asia’s security
Truman, helped create the postwar and prosperity, at a time when it is less
world in which Australia has prospered. able to rely on its great and powerful
Dean Acheson, Truman’s secretary of friend. Australia is a beneficiary of the
state, called his memoir Present at the international order. From time to time,
Creation. Australians today worry that therefore, the country must serve in its
they are present at the destruction. bodyguard. Earlier this year, Australia’s
prime minister placed a call to the leader
AUSTRALIA’S CHOICE of the free world and all he got was static.
Australians have a choice, but it is not The question is, What will the Australians
between sticking with the United States do while difficulties on the line persist?∂
and shifting their loyalty to a rising China.
Australia cannot merely cast off an old
ally and throw in its lot with a new
34 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
“ I honestly think I would not have
the intellectual confidence to initiate
the projects that I am now working on
if I had not done Fletcher’s GMAP.”
–
Janine Di Giovanni, GMAP16
Edward Murrow Senior Fellow, The Council on Foreign Affairs
Former Middle East Editor, Newsweek
Winner of the 2016 Courage in Journalism Award
(GMAP)
N o n - U S s t u d e n t s : 50%
A
fter his election, it became clear Canadians have always paid close
that U.S. President Donald attention to the state of their country’s
Trump preferred to greet other relationship with Washington. And with
political figures with an odd and aggres- good reason: 76 percent of Canadian
sive gesture: in an apparent show of exports go to the United States, whereas
dominance, he would initiate a hand- only 18 percent of U.S. exports travel
shake, tighten his grip, and then abruptly in the other direction. This means that
yank the other party toward him. He did while a shutdown of continental free
this to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo trade might hobble the United States,
Abe, then Supreme Court nominee Neil it would devastate Canada. As former
Gorsuch, and even Vice President Mike Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney
Pence. So when Justin Trudeau visited has put it (riffing on a comparison made
the White House on February 13, the by one of his predecessors, Pierre Trudeau,
Canadian prime minister came prepared. the father of Justin), “Free trade with
Trudeau, an amateur boxer who once the United States is like sleeping with an
worked as a nightclub bouncer, braced elephant. It’s terrific until the elephant
himself, preemptively clenched Trump’s twitches, and if the elephant rolls over,
shoulder, and remained immovable as you are a dead man.”
the president shook his hand. Canadians The United States under Trump is
pored over slow-motion video clips of a singularly unpredictable elephant,
the maneuver as if it were the winning prone to strange nocturnal rumblings
goal in the Stanley Cup final. on Twitter. And so one might expect
In Canada, the scene helped dispel to find Canadians in a state of national
the concern that Trudeau—whose cam agitation, bitterly torn between their
paign had summoned up a venerable suspicions of the new president and the
slogan of his Liberal Party, with Trudeau pragmatic need to appease him for the
declaring, “Sunny ways, my friends, sunny sake of the bilateral relationship. And
ways”—would succumb to Trump’s alpha- yet something closer to the opposite is
male aggression. Further strengthening true: at the same time that the United
the impression, the prime minister and States has descended into partisan rancor,
Canada’s political class has embraced a
JONATHAN KAY is a writer based in Toronto. bipartisan consensus in favor of free trade
Follow him on Twitter @jonkay. and has decisively rejected the type of
September/October 2017 35
Jonathan Kay
36 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trudeau’s Trump Bump
Keep your friends close: Trump and Trudeau at the White House, February 2017
deals ever made by any country,” and in PROTECTING AGAINST
May, the U.S. trade representative notified PROTECTIONISM
Congress of the administration’s intention In public, the Canadian government has
to renegotiate the treaty. responded calmly to such protectionist
But as of this writing, formal nego- threats, but behind the scenes, it has been
tiations over nafta have not yet begun. anything but passive. Immediately after
That doesn’t mean Canada is out of the Trump’s surprise victory, Trudeau and
woods, however. The Trump administra- his advisers began a full-court press aimed
tion has suggested that it may push for at convincing U.S. officials that sticking
more favorable treatment on auto parts, with free trade remained in the United
pharmaceuticals, intellectual property, States’ economic interests. Trudeau reor
alcohol, steel, and aluminum. It may also ganized the prime minister’s office to
reiterate long-standing complaints over create a new standalone unit, led by
Ottawa’s support for the softwood lumber Brian Clow, a Liberal Party operative,
and aerospace industries, as well as press charged with managing relations with
CAR L O S BAR R IA / R E U T E R S
September/October 2017 37
Jonathan Kay
During the Obama administration, the Katie Telford, Trudeau’s chief of staff, has
prime minister’s office usually approached formed a good working rapport with
the U.S. government through formal Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and
channels. On energy and the environment, one of his senior advisers, after meeting
for example, it worked with Brian Deese, him in New York after the election. One
the lone senior White House official of Trudeau’s top advisers, the progressive-
charged with Canadian relations on those minded Gerald Butts, has bonded with
issues. In the Trump era, it has launched one of Trump’s, the right-wing nationalist
the diplomatic equivalent of a carpet- Steve Bannon. Despite the enormous
bombing campaign: Canadian emissaries ideological gulf that separates them, both
have relentlessly knocked on doors men come from humble backgrounds—
throughout the United States, spreading Butts is the son of a coal miner, and
their message as widely as possible. Even Bannon the son of a telephone lineman—
the leaders of Canada’s thinly populated and both, in their own way, care about
northern territories and Atlantic provinces improving the lot of the middle class.
have gotten into the game. “We are going In managing their outreach, the
broad and deep to governors, legislators, Canadians have closely studied Trump’s
even mayors,” the insider in the prime decision-making style. Xi Jinping’s
minister’s office told me. “And we aren’t successful meetings with Trump in
ignoring Democrats, many of whom share April, in which the Chinese president
Trump’s instincts.” According to a tally managed to change his U.S. counter-
offered by Freeland on May 23, since part’s mind on trade and North Korea,
Trump’s inauguration, Canadian represen- proved instructive. Trudeau’s advisers
tatives had met 115 members of Congress concluded that Trump needs to come
and 35 state governors or lieutenant out of a meeting with some sort of win
governors, in addition to holding 235 for him or his family, whether it be a
meetings with other U.S. officials. business deal, an upbeat headline, or
As part of this effort, Trudeau has also even just an attention-grabbing photo-
enlisted Conservatives known to wield graph. Trudeau’s high-profile photo ops
influence in Washington. These include with Trump’s daughter Ivanka in Wash-
Mulroney (who knows Trump from Palm ington and New York have been no
Beach, Florida, where both have homes), accident; one of the best ways to please
Derek Burney (Canada’s ambassador to Trump, Trudeau’s team has realized, is
the United States from 1989 to 1993), and to show respect to his family members.
Rona Ambrose (the Conservatives’ interim One of the best ways to incur Trump’s
leader from 2015 to 2017). Although they wrath, of course, is to insult him. So
have no formal roles, they have proved Trudeau has ruthlessly enforced message
helpful in supplying the Trudeau team discipline within his party. In the past,
with contacts and gently making the Canadian leaders would sometimes play
case for maintaining good relations up their conflicts with the United States
with Canada among American elites. to arouse nationalist support, or they
Some of Trudeau’s advisers have even would permit the formation of vocal
managed to strike up unlikely relation- anti-American constituencies within
ships with members of Trump’s team. their backbenches as a way of releasing
38 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trudeau’s Trump Bump
pressure. In 2004, one Liberal member Uncle Sam’s pant leg. Now Trudeau (and
of Parliament created a furor when she Peña Nieto) has become the adult in the
stepped on a doll of U.S. President room, doing his best to prevent Trump
George W. Bush for a comedy-show from destroying the North American
sketch; these days, it is impossible to economy with a stroke of his pen.
imagine a member of Parliament per-
forming such a brazen gesture. If there TAKING UP THE SLACK
has been any intra-Liberal dissent Canadians’ attitudes on foreign policy
against Trudeau’s approach to Trump, have long turned on Canada’s relationship
it has been very well hidden. As for with the United States, and especially the
the New Democratic Party, Canada’s Canadian public’s perception of the U.S.
social democratic party, its members president. Canada joined nato’s 1999
of Parliament have called on Trudeau mission in Kosovo in large part because
to denounce Trump. But the ndp is in Canadians trusted President Bill Clinton
the midst of a leadership transition, and as a reliable partner who promoted inter
Canadians have showed relatively little national comity. They were less enamored
interest in its line of attack. of President George W. Bush, and so
In April, Trudeau burnished his Prime Minister Jean Chrétien decided
bilateral bona fides when Trump declared that Canada would sit out the Iraq war.
that Trudeau and Mexican President (His successor, Paul Martin, did send
Enrique Peña Nieto had convinced him Canadian troops to Afghanistan in 2006,
to step back from his plans to scrap however.) For decades, Canada saw itself
nafta. In the most dramatic telling of as a nation of principled multilateralists,
the backstory, reported by Canada’s duty-bound to resist the American impulse
National Post, Trump’s reversal followed for unilateralism and bellicosity.
back-channel pleas to Ottawa made by This pattern was scrambled somewhat
White House advisers, who urged the during the era of President Barack Obama
prime minister to get on the phone and and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a
bend the president’s ear. The reality, Conservative given to hawkish slogans.
according to another Trudeau aide, was For the first time in recent memory, the
slightly less dramatic. Trudeau’s team had Canadian leader took more militant
read on Politico that Trump was consider- positions than his U.S. counterpart on
ing ripping up nafta, so they contacted the protection of Israel, the threat of
officials at the White House, who told radical Islam, and the war against terrorism
them that the president had a window more generally. Trudeau’s government
for a phone call. “What it was not,” has restored Canada’s traditional dovish-
explained the adviser, “was Jared Kushner ness, but that can sometimes read as
calling up and saying, ‘Hey, call now!’” wimpishness. In 2014, a year before
That said, Trudeau’s opinion clearly becoming prime minister, Trudeau
does carry weight with Trump, which is dismissed Canada’s contribution to U.S.
one reason the prime minister’s handling operations against the Islamic State, or
of the United States has proved so popular isis, in vulgar terms—he accused Harper
at home. Until recently, Canada tended of “trying to whip out our CF-18s and
to see itself as an ignored child tugging on show them how big they are”—which
September/October 2017 39
Jonathan Kay
40 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trudeau’s Trump Bump
Yet in Canada, Trump has had a a project that would allow significantly
paradoxically stabilizing effect on national greater throughput. The Trump admin-
politics. Whereas the presidencies of istration has reversed this decision,
George W. Bush and Obama tapped into providing a massive boon to Canada’s oil
long-standing fissures between the Cana- industry without Trudeau having to lift
dian left and the Canadian right, Trump a finger and saving him from sullying
is regarded almost universally among his reputation among environmentalists
Canadians as an object of derision. Cana- (whose primary focus has been prevent-
dians are not beset by the sort of intrac- ing the construction of a new pipeline
table culture war that rages in the United off the coast of British Columbia).
States, where two mutually antagonistic More important, as was the case with
tribes are getting their news—much of it Obama, Trudeau’s popularity overseas is
fake—from two different sets of sources. burnishing his brand back home. Trudeau’s
During the Conservative Party’s leader- awkward predecessors, Harper, Martin,
ship campaign earlier this year, the only and Chrétien, were not exactly front-page
candidate who attempted to use dog- eye candy, and Canadians are still getting
whistle rhetoric to speak to anti-Muslim used to having a leader who is feted
skeptics of immigration, Kellie Leitch, internationally. Even more unusual,
attracted just seven percent of the vote however, is that Trudeau is being talked
on the first ballot. The eventual winner, of not just as a charming politician but
Andrew Scheer, is an optimistic 38-year- also as a defender of the free world. Two
old who, until 2015, served as Speaker of weeks after the 2016 U.S. election, the
the House of Commons—a role that, British historian Timothy Garton Ash
within Canada’s parliamentary system, spoke in Toronto about Brexit and the
requires impartial and collegial behavior. rise of Trump. Until recently, attendees at
Scheer has a tough path ahead, because such a talk would have seen themselves
Trump’s presidency has made Trudeau a as mere provincials gathering to hear a
more formidable opponent. Ever since report from the great halls of power in
Trudeau became leader of the Liberal London and Washington. But that was
Party, in 2013, pundits have been writing not the sense that night. After reciting
countless columns predicting that his the tale of how the two most powerful
honeymoon would soon end. And it is English-speaking nations on earth had
true that some of his hard domestic succumbed to populism, and surveying
choices (he approved the expansion of a the “global counterrevolution against
controversial pipeline) and cynical rever- liberalism” unfolding elsewhere, Garton
sals (he broke his campaign promise to Ash identified Canada and Germany as
reform the electoral system) have dimmed “two points of light in a fairly dark
his star. But on one key issue—Canada’s picture.” It was a statement of fact, but a
ability to ship crude oil and bitumen from stunning one nonetheless.
its western oil sands into the United As its hard power declined in relative
States—Trump has made Trudeau’s life terms in the decades after World War II,
much easier. The Obama administration Canada was never more than a marginal
blocked construction of the Keystone player in the global order. Canadian
XL Pipeline through several U.S. states, internationalists tried to argue otherwise,
September/October 2017 41
Jonathan Kay
42 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Return to Table of Contents
F
or most of the twentieth cen- the rule of law and improve the security
tury, Mexico and the United of its citizens.
States were distant neighbors. During the past 25 years, connections
Obliviousness and neglect from the between the two countries have prolifer-
north was met with resentment and, ated at the state and local levels as well.
at times, outright hostility from the Governors have set up trade offices and
south, leaving the two countries diplo- sponsored repeated commercial visits.
matically detached. Yet as the twenty- Law enforcement officers have trained
first century approached, this wariness together and conducted joint operations.
began to fade, replaced by cooperation Universities have initiated cross-border
and even something resembling friend- research projects and exchanges. Mayors
ship. The détente began in the early have embraced sister cities and held joint
1990s, when Mexican President Carlos events and conferences; San Diego and
Salinas de Gortari and U.S. President Tijuana even explored a shared bid for
George H. W. Bush developed a shared the 2024 Summer Olympics.
economic vision, culminating in the But that quarter century of partner-
signing of the North American Free ship is now faltering, thanks to U.S.
Trade Agreement, the largest free-trade President Donald Trump’s overt hostil-
agreement in the world and the first to ity to Mexico and Mexicans. The invec-
include countries with mature econo- tive began during Trump’s campaign,
mies (the United States and Canada) during which he called nafta “the
and a country with a still emerging worst trade deal in history” and claimed
economy (Mexico). Bush’s successor, that Mexico was “killing us economi-
Bill Clinton, embraced the rapproche- cally.” He attacked Mexican immigrants
ment, shepherding nafta through to the United States, painting them as
Congress and later rescuing Mexico “criminals” and “rapists” that steal jobs
and threaten American lives. He pledged
SHANNON K. O’NEIL is Nelson and David to establish a “deportation force” to
Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America rid the nation of millions of “criminal
Studies and Director of the Civil Society, aliens.” And his bellowed promise to
Markets, and Democracy Program at the
Council on Foreign Relations. Follow her on build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican
Twitter @shannonkoneil. border—and force Mexico to pay for
September/October 2017 43
Shannon K. O’Neil
44 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Mexican Standoff
So far from God, so close to Trump: Peña Nieto and Trump in Mexico City, August 2016
b etween the citizens of the two coun- markets have taken the most immedi-
tries. Some seven million Mexicans ate blow. The peso plummeted follow-
settled in the north between 1990 ing Trump’s victory, falling further than
and 2007. That immigration wave has any other emerging-market currency
receded in recent years; since 2009, during the first quarter of 2017. Foreign
over 140,000 more Mexicans have left investment also sank as Trump criti-
the United States than have come to cized companies, including Carrier
it. But around 11 million still reside and Ford, for moving jobs south of the
in the United States, in addition to border (or planning to) and the compa-
nearly 25 million Americans of Mexi- nies responded by postponing, scaling
can heritage. And the movement has back, or canceling those plans. Overall
gone both ways: over one million U.S. foreign direct investment in the coun-
citizens currently make their homes try fell by 20 percent in 2016 as Trump
in Mexico, the largest diaspora com- marched toward the gop nomination,
H E N RY R O M E R O / R E U T E R S
September/October 2017 45
Shannon K. O’Neil
passed in April, the peso recovered States, and Trump’s rise has taken a
and foreign direct investment began terrible toll on many of them. Families
to flow again. Still, nafta’s future of mixed immigration status, newly
remains uncertain. And U.S. congres- fearful of federal enforcement agents,
sional proposals to create a new border have pulled their kids out of school,
adjustment tax (to be levied on imports canceled medical appointments, and
from Mexico and elsewhere) and to stopped going to local restaurants,
dramatically lower U.S. corporate tax grocery stores, and neighborhood
rates would threaten Mexico’s com- events. This self-isolation is hollow
petitiveness and export-based economic ing out once vibrant communities
model. and has hurt the economies of many
struggling U.S. towns.
MAKE MEXICO GREAT AGAIN Indignation and anger over Trump’s
Meanwhile, Mexicans’ attitudes toward rise have begun to reshape domestic
their powerful neighbor have swiftly politics in Mexico, stirring up long-
changed as well; the United States dormant nationalist and isolationist
has gone from paragon to pariah. The currents. Mexicans across the political
public’s ire has been reflected in the spectrum were astonished and out-
proliferation of Trump-inspired piñatas raged when Mexican President En-
and luchadores (costumed professional rique Peña Nieto invited Trump to
wrestlers). Polls show that the number meet with him in Mexico City in
of Mexicans with negative views of August 2016, sparking a catastrophic
the United States has tripled since slide in Peña Nieto’s approval ratings,
the election; overall, Mexicans now from which he has yet to recover; in
feel more warmly toward Russia and July, only 17 percent of Mexicans
Venezuela than toward the United approved of his performance. As
States. In a recent Pew survey, Mexico Mexico looks toward national and
ranked last among 37 nations in terms presidential elections in 2018, Trump
of public confidence in Trump. has made it once again politically
Not only are fewer Mexicans profitable for Mexican politicians to
immigrating to the United States these stand up to the United States. Today,
days, but even tourist numbers are Mexican senators display anti-Trump
down. According to the global research banners in their chamber and churn
firm Tourism Economics, almost two out numerous retaliatory and anti-
million fewer Mexicans are currently American bills. Trump’s ascent has
planning to take an American vacation also emboldened Mexican protection-
than were planning to at the same time ists, who are eager to turn back the
last year, and the number of Mexicans clock to the pre-nafta era and recap-
who applied to enroll at schools in the ture the profits they enjoyed when
University of California system this fall economic competition was more
dropped by more than a third compared limited. Producers of aluminum, steel,
with last year. cement, glass, and numerous other
Of course, nearly one in ten Mexican materials and goods could argue that if
citizens already lives in the United Washington can favor U.S. companies
46 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Mexican Standoff
over foreign ones in some industries, minister, had built as they negotiated
then the Mexican government should candidate Trump’s visit to Mexico in
do the same for Mexican firms. August 2016. But Mexican officials
The biggest political beneficiary of were blindsided when, five days before
these trends has been the left-wing a scheduled one-on-one meeting between
populist Andrés Manuel López Obra- the two presidents in January, Trump
dor, who is planning to run for presi- took to Twitter to declare that Peña
dent a third time next year. The day Nieto should not come to Washington
after Trump’s victory, López Obrador unless he would agree to pay for the
was filmed in front of a mural by the border wall. Peña Nieto, humiliated,
celebrated Mexican painter Diego canceled the trip.
Rivera assuring Mexicans that Mexico Since that debacle, the Mexican
would remain a “free, independent government has recalibrated its ap-
nation”—“not a colony” and “not proach. Without giving up entirely
dependent on any foreign govern- on the possibility of winning over
ment.” (Peña Nieto limited his own White House advisers and members
response to a tweet congratulating of Trump’s cabinet, it has focused on
Trump.) López Obrador’s approval reaching out to other potential allies.
ratings shot up, from 11 percent in These include governors and other
September 2016 to 24 percent in elected officials in the 23 U.S. states
November. In recent months, he has for whom Mexico is their largest or
melded this appeal to Mexican sover- second-largest export market, the hun-
eignty into his broader antiestablish- dreds of thousands of American farm-
ment platform. He is now considered ers who sell over $18 billion worth of
the front-runner in next year’s presi- goods to Mexico every year, those
dential race. small and medium-sized U.S. export-
As other hopefuls announce their ers that are more likely to send their
intentions, they, too, will undoubtedly wares to Mexico than anywhere else in
promise a firmer hand with the bully the world, and large multinationals
to the north. Mexicans will elect not catering to Mexican consumers. With
only the president but also more than the help of 50 consular offices in the
3,000 other officials next July, raising United States and the assistance of
the possibility that nationalists could Mexican business elites, Peña Nieto’s
take power at all levels of Mexico’s government has begun to work the
government. U.S. system, courting all levels of
government and seeking out potential
MAKING NEW FRIENDS grass-roots allies.
Meanwhile, the Peña Nieto adminis- This ground game is in its very
tration has struggled to respond effec- early stages and is more limited and
tively to Trump and his provocations. ad hoc than the one undertaken by the
It initially relied on the personal rela- United States’ other neighbor, Canada.
tionship that Trump’s son-in-law and Yet it is already showing some signs of
adviser, Jared Kushner, and Luis promise. A bipartisan group of U.S.
Videgaray, now Mexico’s foreign senators, including the Republican
September/October 2017 47
Shannon K. O’Neil
48 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Mexican Standoff
September/October 2017 49
UNIVERSITY of OKLAHOMA
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ESSAYS
The Trump administration’s
bureaucratic problems come
not from an insidious,
undemocratic “deep state”
but simply from the state.
—Jon Michaels
O
ne of the strangest aspects of the current era is that the president
of the United States seems to have little interest in running
the country’s government. A political novice with no fixed
ideology or policy agenda, Donald Trump took office as if orchestrating
a hostile corporate takeover. In his first six-plus months as president,
he has followed his own counsel, displaying open contempt for much
of the federal work force he now leads, slashing budgets, rescinding
regulatory rules, and refusing to follow standard operating procedures.
This has cost him allies in the executive branch, helped spur creative
(and increasingly effective) bureaucratic opposition, and, thanks to
that opposition, triggered multiple investigations that threaten to sap
party and congressional support.
Furious at what they consider treachery by internal saboteurs, the
president and his surrogates have responded by borrowing a bit of
political science jargon, claiming to be victims of the “deep state,” a
conspiracy of powerful, unelected bureaucrats secretly pursuing their
own agenda. The concept of a deep state is valuable in its original
context, the study of developing countries such as Egypt, Pakistan,
and Turkey, where shadowy elites in the military and government
ministries have been known to countermand or simply defy democratic
directives. Yet it has little relevance to the United States, where gov-
ernmental power structures are almost entirely transparent, egalitarian,
and rule-bound.
The White House is correct to perceive widespread resistance
inside the government to many of its endeavors. But the same way
the administration’s media problems come not from “fake news” but
simply from news, so its bureaucratic problems come not from an
JON D. MICHAELS is Professor of Law at the University of California, Los Angeles, School
of Law.
52 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trump and the “Deep State”
September/October 2017 53
Jon D. Michaels
54 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Trump and the “Deep State”
September/October 2017 55
Jon D. Michaels
56 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
SPONSORED SECTION
Keeping Ahead
in Uncertain Times
I n uncertain times, we wonder: Do our assumptions about the world still apply? Can
we separate facts from opinions? How can the institutions we created adapt to new
situations? How do we incorporate different voices into a coherent conversation?
How can we contribute positively?
Training in international affairs and policy builds a critical perspectives. Discover in what ways students challenge
foundation of expertise—regional, cultural, economic, established ideas and formulate new ones.
political—to recognize the underlying forces at work Greek philosophy tells us that the only constant
in the world. Programs challenge students to develop in life is change; yet, moving forward requires making
the critical thinking, communications, leadership, and plans, getting the proper training, and building a
teamwork skills to navigate a changing landscape. profession. International affairs graduates master
Graduates are distinguished by their flexibility and underlying principles of an ever-changing world to help
adaptability. These traits are fostered by an inter prepare for the future.
disciplinary curriculum and the rich community of
people with whom they study.
As you begin your search for a master’s program, By Carmen Iezzi Mezzera
consider how you can establish a grounding in the past,
Executive Director,
prepare for the present, and get ready to adjust to the
future. Look at how programs support innovation in Association of Professional Schools of
their field. Ask by what means they incorporate diverse International Affairs (@apsiainfo)
ForeignAffairs.com/GraduateSchoolForum
SPONSORED SECTION
Contents
Australian National University, The University of Texas at Austin,
Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs . . . . . . . . 4 Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs . . . . . 12
Study in a Region That Matters at an Leading and Succeeding in a World of Uncertainty
Institution That Matters Angela Evans
Hugh White
Stanford University, Ford Dorsey Program in
The Johns Hopkins University, School of International Policy Studies (IPS) . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Advanced International Studies (SAIS) . . . . . . . . 5 Stanford Offers Far More Than a
Preparing for the Complexities of a Changing World Traditional Policy Degree
Vali Nasr Michael A. McFaul
Duke Sanford School of Public Policy . . . . . . . . . . 6 Seton Hall University, School of Diplomacy
‘Outrageous Ambitions’ for the Greater Good and International Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Judith Kelley Ready for the Real World: Putting Diplomacy
into Practice
European University at St. Petersburg, Mihailo Jovanovic
International Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
A Spotlight on Eurasian Energy Politics Michigan State University,
Nikita Lomagin The Eli Broad College of Business . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Today’s Professionals Can Never Learn Enough
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Elizabeth Blass
Tufts University . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Management Matters: Applying Business Strategy Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs . . . . . . . 16
to an International Affairs Education Preparing Leaders for Pressing Global Challenges
Alnoor Ebrahim Rachel Korberg
2
SPONSORED SECTION
3
SPONSORED SECTION
Hugh White AO
Professor of Strategic Studies
Strategic & Defence Studies Centre,
Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs
College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University
Study in a Region
Our approach to research and education is distinct
and unique: we bring leading disciplinary expertise and
That Matters at
deep knowledge of the region from a global perspective
into the classroom. Many of the centers in the Bell School
are over fifty years old, representing a rich tradition of
bellschool.anu.edu.au | bellschool@anu.edu.au
4
SPONSORED SECTION
Vali Nasr
Dean
The Johns Hopkins University School of
Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Complexities of a
in today’s competitive higher education environment.
Our reach—through a diverse student body, faculty,
and alumni—ensures access to an influential and global
www.sais-jhu.edu | sais.dc.admissions@jhu.edu | +1 . 202 . 663 . 5700
5
SPONSORED SECTION
Judith Kelley
Senior Associate Dean
ITT/Terry Sanford Professor of Public Policy Studies
Professor of Political Science
Duke Sanford School of Public Policy
‘Outrageous Ambitions’
challenged students to pursue “outrageous ambi
tions” for the greater good. Our students embrace
that entrepreneurial spirit. They recently established
for the Greater Good a social innovation working group, a nonprofit board
leadership program, and even a coding club. With their
input, our curriculum focuses more on analyzing big
At a time when political discourse is antagonistic
data and incorporates ideas from behavioral economics
and polarized, what is the Sanford School doing
and human-centered design.
to promote constructive dialogue? Sanford students pursue these new approaches
An international affairs career—whether in the field while also building core competencies in politics,
or conducting research on global concerns—requires microeconomics, statistics, and management. Through
an exchange of ideas from a rich diversity of perspec group projects for global and local clients, they also
tives, backgrounds, and experiences. To achieve this practice critical teamwork skills. Some choose to
exchange, all partners must feel secure, welcomed, and develop subject area expertise—security studies,
respected, and all voices must be heard. These values environment and energy, or international development,
and skills are critical to navigating these contentious for example—or pursue dual degrees in business, law,
times. At the Duke Sanford School, we work both to and environmental management.
model them and to teach them.
In the classroom, our faculty address issues such as How can students find mentors and role models?
power imbalances and structural inequality. Outside of Our accomplished alumni hold influential positions
class, our committee on diversity and inclusion holds around the world. They include the founder of the
brown-bag discussions and training modules. Student Global Fund for Children, a humanitarian affairs officer
groups—such as Sanford Pride, the Latin American and working in Syria with the UN Refugee Agency, U.S.
Caribbean Group, and Sanford Women in Policy—strive Foreign Service officers fighting human trafficking, and
to make our campus welcoming to everyone. the founder of a global health-care access nonprofit.
Our student body is diverse. Some of our Master of Our faculty, too, have broad experience. They include
Public Policy students arrive from stints in the Peace a former diplomat, military leaders, economic advisors
Corps, the U.S. military, and international nongov to foreign governments, and a State Department policy
ernmental organizations. Each year, our Master of planner. Because of our relatively small program sizes,
International Development Policy program attracts mid- our students have access to these faculty mentors.
career professionals from more than twenty countries. In addition, our dedicated career services staff pro
With our small program size and collaborative spirit, vides individualized career counseling—assisting with
students are able to establish career connections that not only a first job but also with planning for the third,
reach across continents. or fifth, position. They help students hone networking
skills and make connections to our far-flung alumni
Globalization, mobile technologies, and social network. Graduates leave the Duke Sanford School
media are transforming global affairs. How with a forever-widened worldview.
does the Sanford School prepare students for
rapid change and uncertainty?
Thinking imaginatively and being future-oriented are
essential. The policy issues we face are cross-national,
and we need big ideas. At Duke and Sanford, think
ing big is in our DNA—our founder, Terry Sanford,
Sanford.Duke.edu | MPPadmit@duke.edu | 919 . 613 . 9205
6
SPONSORED SECTION
Nikita Lomagin
Professor of History and International Economics
ENERPO Academic Director
European University at St. Petersburg
A Spotlight on
answers to basic questions. These questions vary from
whether a combination of national energy security
Eurasian Energy
models could entail a system that could be accepted
as a global common good, to if it is possible to merge
different energy security approaches by exporters,
eu.spb.ru/international | international@eu.spb.ru | +7 812 . 386 . 76 . 48
7
SPONSORED SECTION
Alnoor Ebrahim
Professor of Management
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Tufts University
Management Matters:
impact investors on how to measure the social impacts
of their investments. I draw on these experiences in
Applying Business
the classroom, as they pose real-world challenges,
help inform new research, and provide networks for
student projects and career connections.
Fletcher.Tufts.edu | FletcherAdmissions@Tufts.edu | 617 . 627 . 3040
8
SPONSORED SECTION
Shujiro Urata
Dean and Professor
Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies
Waseda University
for Asia-Pacific
officials in international organizations, journalists in
mass media, and researchers in think-tanks. To broaden
perspectives, students are encouraged to participate
www.waseda.jp/gsaps/en | gsaps@list.waseda.jp
9
SPONSORED SECTION
Laura Bloomberg
Dean
Humphrey School of Public Affairs
University of Minnesota
Bringing the World How does the Humphrey School create learning
environments where a diversity of views is
into the World inclusion, and diversity, and our classroom discussions
are guided by ground rules for respectful and inclusive
discourse. We have prioritized hiring practices that help
The Humphrey School of Public Affairs is uniquely to ensure a diversity of tenure and tenure-track faculty
positioned to impact complex global challenges that members—not only with regard to race, but also country
demand innovative and effective approaches. Guided by of origin, orientation, and political view. Our faculty bring
a dynamic curriculum, and with the support of a globally a global mindset and guide students to apply newly
engaged faculty, Humphrey School students are trained learned skills in a global context.
for careers in foreign policy, global affairs, international
development, and human rights and humanitarianism. How are you preparing students to remain
flexible in their career paths?
What innovative ways has your program found
We prioritize two essential skills that are transferrable
to prepare students for an age of uncertainty?
in uncertain times: public policy analysis and public
The world needs visionaries to address daunting and policy implementation through community engagement.
ever-changing global challenges involving diplomacy, Students learn evidence-based best practices that shape
conflict prevention and management, humanitarian effective policy and gain skills to engage respectfully
response, global migration, human rights, food security, with multiple stakeholders throughout the communities
climate change, poverty, and inequality. Our curriculum impacted by such policies and practices. Our Master
combines core courses in policy analysis and imple of Public Policy (MPP) degree program, which includes
mentation with an array of academic opportunities a global policy concentration, trains students to lead
to learn from practitioners through internships and and manage across sectors, institutions, and diverse
field studies. Our partnership with the Stimson Center populations and learn to solve complex problems in
in Washington, DC, provides students research and dynamic, uncertain environments. In courses on U.S.
internship opportunities with experts, and crisis foreign policy and bilateral relations taught by our
negotiation exercises presented by the U.S. Army diplomat-in-residence, students explore ways that
College—most recently with retired Ambassador international diplomatic norms are continuously chal
Thomas Pickering—train students to negotiate inter lenged by changes in the international political structure,
national crises. We also leverage technology in ways the rise of non-state actors and organizations, and the
that bring the world into the school and the school into explosion of digital technology and social media.
the world by connecting students with professionals
around the globe, and hosting an online collection of
public policy teaching cases produced at institutions
in Africa, Asia, East Asia, Central and South America,
and across the United States.
hhh.umn.edu | hhhadmit@umn.edu | 612 . 624 . 3800
10
SPONSORED SECTION
Understanding
navigate through these uncertain times?
Laura: The challenges that today’s leaders face are
Complex Perspectives
not all new. They are, however, more interconnected
and demand holistic approaches to tackle them.
Understanding the political, legal, economic, technical,
of International and environmental dimensions behind new approaches
are now more essential than ever. This was at the core
Angela Evans
Dean
Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs
The University of Texas at Austin
Leading and
LBJ School’s affiliations with the Clements Center for
National Security and the Robert S. Strauss Center for
Succeeding in a
International Security and Law, both of which integrate
expertise from across UT as well as from the private
and public sectors to tackle pressing global security
World of Uncertainty challenges. Notably, LBJ is host to UT’s new China Policy
Center, a laboratory for the study of contemporary
U.S.-China relations. Our Latin America working group
How are you preparing students to succeed in investigates the most serious issues facing the region
an uncertain global environment? over the next decade, with Texas a gateway to this region
Unpredictability has always been a defining charac of the world. We continue to see high-level officials
teristic of global affairs. We teach students to not only from Washington, DC, and around the globe make us a
expect uncertainty but also to capitalize on it and use it destination for important exchange and dialogue. In the
as an opportunity for transformational change. That is last two years, we hosted a secretary of state, secretary
only possible if one understands the roots of changes of defense, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director,
taking place, so we instill in our students a truly global Federal Bureaus of Investigations director, director of
outlook—one that does not take the U.S. perspective national intelligence, and several U.S. senators.
as universal. Our students study the opposing vantage
point, question assumptions, and plan for the unex How do you connect students to jobs in
pected, which builds resiliency in times of flux. their desired fields?
Our faculty include world-renowned scholars and
How relevant and contemporary is the former senior officials in the departments of state and
curriculum and learning environment? defense, the National Security Council, U.S. Agency
At the LBJ School, we prepare students by constantly for International Development, the World Bank, and
adapting our curriculum to incorporate new tools, more. In recent years, students have taken jobs at the
methodologies, and ways of thinking. Specifically, U.S. State Department and the Defense Department,
students pursuing our Master of Global Policy Studies the CIA, the U.S. Senate and House Armed Services
(MGPS) degree are well-versed in the traditional areas Committees, the World Bank, the Center for Strategic
of study—development, diplomacy, security, humani and International Studies, the Brookings Institution,
tarian aid—and they understand how modern forces the Atlantic Council, prominent nongovernmental
change how we confront issues such as the emergence organizations, and nonprofits.
of non-state actors, sustainable development, climate Whether through our faculty, LBJ’s Washington
patterns, and cyber warfare. We put a strong emphasis Center in DC, Austin’s burgeoning global community,
on experiential learning, in which students study policy or through our engaged alumni network numbering over
through real-world exposure and practice, including 4,100 on the world stage, our students are exposed to
participation in a year-long policy research project the full range of professional possibilities.
funded by an external client.
Students have the unique advantage of accessing
the vast resources of The University of Texas (UT) at
Austin, a Tier 1 research institution. MGPS students are
afforded ten dual degree options, choose from existing
specializations, or design one based on their personal
career trajectory. They especially benefit from the
lbj.utexas.edu | lbjadmit@austin.utexas.edu | 512 . 471 . 3200
12
SPONSORED SECTION
Michael A. McFaul
Director
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Stanford Offers Far autumn quarter of 2018, there will be a new, stronger
curriculum that will provide future public service pro
Policy Degree
development opportunities available to students.
ips.stanford.edu | ips-information@stanford.edu | 650 . 725 . 9075
13
SPONSORED SECTION
Mihailo Jovanovic
MA, 2016
School of Diplomacy and International Relations
Seton Hall University
World: Putting
well-informed, and flexible international front-runners.
Diplomacy.shu.edu | Diplomat@shu.edu | 973 . 275 . 2514
14
SPONSORED SECTION
Elizabeth Blass
Master of Science in Management,
Strategy and Leadership, 2015
The Eli Broad College of Business
Michigan State University
MSUOnline.com/GradForum | enrollment@michiganstateuniversityonline.com
855 . 286 . 1244
15
SPONSORED SECTION
Challenges
Don’t be afraid of digging into policy and business
approaches—getting outside of the typical tools used
by the global development sector will serve your career.
How did Jackson prepare you not just for Take courses that explore, and really grapple with,
your first job after graduate school but for criticisms about development aid. I would also suggest
taking at least one class on something that you’ve never
the rest of your career?
done before. One of the best classes I took while at
What drew me to Jackson was the ability to learn from a Jackson was a six-person, PhD-level history seminar
diverse group of fields and people. I took classes not just with historian Tim Snyder.
at Jackson but also at the Schools of Management, Law,
Public Health, and Forestry & Environmental Studies. How did you benefit from the Jackson
This helped me learn how to be a translator between community?
fields and perspectives. For example, in my current job,
What I loved most about Jackson was the students’
I may speak with Silicon Valley in the morning and then
commitment to service. A few of my classmates were
to an organizer or a scientist in the afternoon—taking
former military, for example; despite my being an aid
courses and learning with leaders in all of those spaces
worker at the time, I quickly realized that what we
have really helped.
had in common was that we were all committed to
Prior to Yale, you were involved in several non- serving in some way. Jackson students come from all
around the world and from different sectors. Because
profit organizations and government agencies.
it’s a small program, we were able to spend time
After graduate school, you transitioned into
together and expanded each other’s perspectives.
private sector work. How did your Jackson
It’s a great community.
degree help you to make this change?
My career was initially in the global development and
humanitarian world. At a certain point, though, I was Ms. Korberg leads the Foundation's efforts to identify
frustrated not to see more results. Instead, I saw work new, large-scale opportunities for impact.
happening without enough impact and collaboration
with the communities that were actually living these
challenges. I needed a moment to reflect and reorganize.
I was grateful that Jackson gave me an opportunity
to do that.
While at Jackson, I ended up building my skills in
business strategy and finance. I took this training to my
job as vice president at a frontier markets investment
firm. One of my favorite projects was a market study
on energy-efficient appliance manufacturing in Ghana,
and we later advised the government on how to spur
more manufacturing. Jackson helped me to make that
shift into the private sector.
jackson.yale.edu | jackson.institute@yale.edu | 203 . 432 . 6253
16
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Lauren Carruth
Assistant Professor
School of International Service
American University
Service: Leadership
benefit students?
In my classes, I make sure that every student ends the
Through Service
semester with three things: scientific and programmatic
proficiency, depth of historical knowledge, and the ability
to critically analyze global inequities. First, I make sure
You are a medical anthropologist specializing students are knowledgeable about the science and policy
underpinning health and humanitarian interventions.
in humanitarian assistance and global health
Second, I teach the history and roles of international
who teaches international affairs. Tell us about
organizations and governments in the development of
your research and approach to teaching.
laws and intervention strategies. Students exit the class
My research draws on insights from ethnographic field understanding, for example, the history, structure, and
work and ongoing conversations with many different critiques of the UN World Health Organization and how
people in the Horn of Africa to help improve the global it positions itself for future global health challenges. Third,
health policies and humanitarian interventions that students gain critical thinking skills to evaluate how dis
affect them. My goal as an instructor at the School of eases or problems are prioritized and how groups of people
International Service (SIS) is to share these experi and problems can sometimes be left behind or obscured.
ences with my students and, therein, help them more
effectively recognize, analyze, and redress health SIS was founded on the promise of educating
inequities, both in faraway places like the Horn of international affairs students to wage peace.
Africa and right here in Washington, DC. How do you apply this to your work?
“Waging peace” means building relations of trust and
How has your work with humanitarian organi-
fighting for social justice. Anthropologists have long
zations such as UNICEF and the United Nations
studied the role of health in people’s social identities
(UN) World Food Program informed how you
and the cultural sensitivity required to optimize medical
teach international affairs?
care—especially in the aftermath of war or violence.
As an anthropologist, I consider UN agencies and Health care has important societal effects; conversely,
nongovernmental organizations as cultural systems social relations shape the outcomes and evaluations of
with discernable histories, symbols, rituals, and values. the medical care people receive. Therefore, health and
In class, we study how power operates within these humanitarian responses can never be limited to building
organizations. We ask how power relations affect clinics and donating material goods but must also include
how we define a humanitarian crisis, a famine, or an explicit efforts to foster trust and reconciliation. Histories
epidemic, and how and by whom particular health of violence make relief operations and clinical encounters
and humanitarian interventions are designed and between oppositional groups formidable. However, in
evaluated. To supplement scholarly and policy texts, my work, I have found that healthcare providers and aid
I introduce students to aid workers, policymakers, workers, by explicitly working to undo political tensions,
and beneficiaries who can offer grounded insights can build meaningful rapport across antagonistic divides.
into the importance, challenges, and inadequacies In other words, peace can begin in the clinic.
of particular foreign interventions.
american.edu/sis | sisgrad@american.edu | 202 . 885 . 1646
17
SPONSORED SECTION
Michael Oppenheimer
PHOTO: NYUSPS/MARK MCQUEEN
Clinical Professor
NYU School of Professional Studies
Center for Global Affairs
Using Uncertainty to
leverage the best knowledge available, and are subjected
to reality checks as the world evolves in unexpected ways.
Manuel Muñiz
Dean
IE School of International Relations
World of Tomorrow:
of such a rapidly changing landscape. It also requires
providing our students with a solid foundation on how
the private sector works. We are strong believers in
Where Technology the need for the public and private sectors to work
together to solve some of the greatest problems of our
Why does your School aim to educate for What is the IE experience and what sort of
“the world of tomorrow”? careers do IE graduates have?
The world is changing at an exponential pace. In the last The IE School of International Relations is a cosmopoli
three decades life expectancy increased by an average tan institution. The vast majority of our students are
of three months per year lived, century-old companies international. Our language of instruction is English.
ceased to exist and many of the jobs performed by And our students get to spend time in both Madrid, the
humans for generations were taken over by robots over-4-million-strong capital of Spain, and in Segovia,
and algorithms. In the last two years alone humanity a UNESCO World Heritage site where the IE owns a
produced more data than in the previous twenty mil beautiful 13th century monastery.
lennia. Advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, the Our Bachelor and Master in International Relations
biological and medical sciences and many others will graduates have gone on to work for some of the world’s
mean that the world where our graduates will live will largest corporations in strategy, business development
be very different to the one we know today. Many more and institutional affairs departments. Some are working
of our jobs will be automated, we will have redefined the for multilateral institutions such as the United Nations
concept of privacy and of security, and the boundaries or the World Bank. Others have gone into politics and
between local and global will have become completely the public sector more broadly. Others, in turn, are
blurred. This complex and interdependent world will helping some of those in need in our world through
be in dire need of leaders capable of navigating it and their work in NGOs and other philanthropic institu
of guiding its companies, institutions and govern tions. Overall, our graduates have made the most of
ments. We aim to be at the forefront of the process their education and are working at the frontier of global
of educating those leaders both at the undergraduate affairs. We are very proud of them. I encourage read
and graduate levels. ers to join us here in Spain, to accept future challenges
affronting humanity and to take part in our vast alumni
How does the IE educate its students to community currently continuing to make the world a
address current and future challenges? better-governed place for all.
At IE School of International Relations we are committed
to innovation in education. This is not only reflected in
the use of technology in the classroom and beyond but
also in how our teaching is always focused on trends
of change. We do not educate for the past but for the
future. This requires linking our teaching to the latest
www.mir.ie.edu | Admissions.IR@ie.edu | +34 915 . 689 . 610
19
SPONSORED SECTION
Rey Koslowski
Director of the Master of International Affairs Program
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy
University at Albany
Building Skills and Expertise and take courses offered by faculty from Rockefeller
College’s Center for International Development (CID),
www.albany.edu/rockefeller | rockadmissions@albany.edu | 518 . 442 . 5244
20
SPONSORED SECTION
Kent Boydston
Master of Pacific International Affairs, 2015
School of Global Policy and Strategy
UC San Diego
West Coast-Trained
continuing to punish aberrant behavior. This is not an
easy balance to find.
for a Washington,
Just as important as analyzing these complex
policy issues, it is necessary to connect them with
stakeholders. That is why I maintain relationships with
gps.ucsd.edu | gps-apply@ucsd.edu | 858 . 534 . 5914
21
SPONSORED SECTION
Wei Liang
Professor & Co-Chair of the International Trade and
Economic Diplomacy Program
Middlebury Institute of International Studies
at Monterey
Inspire Graduate
program allows students to gain additional professional
experience at our Washington, DC, campus after they
complete two semesters of coursework in Monterey.
www.miis.edu | info@miis.edu | 831 . 647 . 4166
22
SPONSORED SECTION
Grooming Future
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Kofi Annan, and
David Cameron. The LKY School also facilitates intern
lkyspp.nus.edu.sg | lkypostgrad@nus.edu.sg | +65 6516 . 8004
23
SPONSORED SECTION
Stephen J. Collier
Chair
Julien J. Studley Graduate Program in International Affairs
The New School
A New Kind of
and engaged learning, the unique possibilities
in New York for students of international affairs,
International Affairs
and the connections across The New School in
media, design, and social research. There is no
other international affairs program that combines
this set of things.
What was the original motivation for launching
Another attractive distinction of GPIA is that
the Julien J. Studley Graduate Program in our program is flexible. We do not march students
International Affairs (GPIA) in 2001? through a bunch of required courses—we believe
Our founding director, Mike Cohen—who led the World that students should put together a course of study
Bank’s urban department for many years—wanted to guided by their own interest. Our program has
design an alternative international affairs program. He always been accommodating for nontraditional
wanted it to have a truly global focus—looking at issues in students: people who are changing careers or work
poor and middle-income countries, not only at the latest ing full- or part-time. We are committed to making
issues in U.S. foreign policy. The program would be com our program work for people in different situations.
mitted to practice and getting students out in the field, and Third, our International Field Program is an
be critical, engaged, and iconoclastic, in The New School entirely unique opportunity for our graduate
tradition. He put together a faculty with this in mind, and students. Students spend two summer months
these orientations are still central to our program. at our field sites abroad getting on-the ground
experience. They work and conduct research
What are the program’s main academic and with community-based organizations, NGOs, and
professional areas of focus? government agencies around the world.
We offer five concentrations: Conflict and Security,
Media and Culture, Cities and Social Justice, Governance What has been students’ favorite
and Rights, and Development. Each provides a different part of GPIA?
set of real-world experiences and skills. In Conflict and Students love the program and report that they
Security students learn to conduct conflict assessments; find it to be a transformative experience. Dealing
in Media and Culture students learn transmedia design, with international affairs is not like fixing a car—
and its links to advocacy; and so on. We also offer an just a matter of knowing which part to replace
extensive practice curriculum that provides a range of or which screw to adjust. It is about critically
skills—geographic information systems, participatory engaging with the field: Why are we asking
design, monitoring and evaluation, media production, certain questions and not others? What political
survey research, and many others—that are essential agendas are behind particular answers to global
to the ever-changing field of international affairs. problems? Students who come to our program
are interested in these questions, and I think they
What makes The New School’s program differ- are satisfied with what they find.
ent from other international affairs programs?
Traditionally, the field has been centered on economics
and political science. Although other programs bring in
new perspectives, their core curriculum is still organized
around classic areas. One can certainly study those topics
at The New School, but our program is distinguished by
our critical perspective, our commitment to practice
www.newschool.edu/milano | admission@newschool.edu | 212 . 229 . 5150
24
SPONSORED SECTION
Shane Woodson
Student
Thunderbird School of Global Management
Arizona State University
Thriving in
prepares students to be comfortable in uncertain situ
ations. What I am learning at Thunderbird helps me to
be more certain of the future and to make sure I have
www.thunderbird.asu.edu | admissions.tbird@asu.edu
602 . 978 . 7100 or 800 . 457 . 6966 (US)
25
SPONSORED SECTION
Advanced International
students, we come at the challenge from two angles.
First, through our academic programs, we ensure
Leading Academics mix of academics and practitioners who are not only
at the cutting edge of their fields of research but also
and Experienced have extensive work experience, and they bring that
experience and advice into the learning environment.
Practitioners
Second, our careers coach helps students consider the
international job market. Through a series of workshops,
seminars, and networking events, students make con
tacts across a range of organizations and practice their
What is it about the Brussels School that
networking skills with potential employers.
encourages diverse opinions?
Our diverse international student body, represent What specific skills do you provide
ing fifty-five nationalities and backgrounds, ensures students to allow them to remain flexible
students are exposed to diverse perspectives—it is in their career paths?
what our school is built on. The different backgrounds,
Achieving a balance between the theoretical and the
academically but also professionally, create a stimulat
practical is something that is vital toward building a
ing environment in our seminars. We encourage this
flexible career. For instance, our module on European
participation and consider all other viewpoints, which
Union (EU) migration law provides students with a
results in some lively discussion! These perspectives
sound grounding in the law governing regular migration
are built into the classes that students take as elec
within the EU as well as an opportunity to undertake an
tives; for example, our module on migration, conflict,
internship at the EU Rights Clinic and put their theoreti
and human rights challenges students’ perceptions
cal knowledge to use by advising them on their rights
by inviting guest speakers into the class each week to
under EU migration law. In several modules, students
cover a range of issues across the spectrum of human
play simulation games—for example, acting as media
migration. These speakers, with personal firsthand
tors in an international conflict or negotiating among
experiences of conflicts and human rights, inspire
EU member states. By learning how to use these tools
students to think beyond the theories.
effectively, our students are able to achieve success
in many avenues of life, even if these sometimes fall
How does the Brussels School equip students
outside of the formal scope of their education.
to face the challenges of an uncertain world?
Our students choose us for many different reasons,
but the ability to combine a world-class education
with outstanding networking opportunities in Brussels
among the international community is the reason we
hear most. The ever-increasing competitiveness of the
job market post-graduation puts a heavy emphasis on
the combination of study and internships. To help our
www.kent.ac.uk/brussels | bsis@kent.ac.uk | +32 2 . 641 . 1721
26
SPONSORED SECTION
Daniel Bessner
Anne H.H. and Kenneth B. Pyle Assistant Professor of
U.S. Foreign Policy
Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies
University of Washington
How to Maximize
Microsoft, and other major multinational corpora
tions—and government community—for example, I was
jsis.washington.edu | jsisadv@uw.edu | 206 . 543 . 6001
27
SPONSORED SECTION
Joel S. Hellman
Dean
Walsh School of Foreign Service
Georgetown University
Think Globally
international affairs?
The SFS graduate programs offer an ideal balance of
focus and context. Our three largest programs cover
Both within the United States and abroad, broad and vital themes: international affairs and diplo
groups espousing nationalism and isolationism macy, security studies, and international development.
are on the rise, casting doubt on global trade and Then, we have five additional programs that offer multi-
international institutions. How has this affected disciplinary focus on regional studies: Asian studies;
the Walsh School of Foreign Service (SFS)? Arab studies; Eurasian, Russian, and East European
studies; German and European studies; and Latin
Our mission—preparing the global leaders of tomor
American studies. We have also just introduced a new
row—has never been more important than today, with
master’s in business diplomacy aimed at executives.
the global order being questioned in so many ways. This
This range of choices gives students a small cohort
is a critical and exciting time to be engaging students
experience within a larger graduate community.
in interdisciplinary discussion at the highest levels, and
we find that SFS students are intellectually engaged How does the atmosphere at Georgetown
and politically committed. Concerns that applications bring students the diverse perspectives that
to a school of international affairs might dip in this
are increasingly important?
environment have, to date, proven unfounded: SFS
applications are at an all-time high. At their core, the SFS graduate programs are highly
global. We have students from many countries and
How is SFS adapting as the world and the job cultures, each of whom contributes in critical ways
market change so quickly? to inquiry and discussion. Our faculty of more than
one hundred and twenty professors comes from and
The strengths of our graduate programs in international
understands a huge variety of cultures, languages, and
affairs have always been on the cutting edge. We are
philosophies. And, because Georgetown is located in
top-ranked for many reasons, but surely one is that
our most international and global city, our campus
our Washington, DC, location provides faculty who
continuously hosts important international leaders.
are top practitioners as well as important thinkers.
Just last year, we heard from foreign ministers from
Our location also offers unparalleled access to intern
France, Argentina, Sweden, Panama, Canada, and
ships and practical experiences—exactly the kind of
the United Arab Emirates and the former president of
interdisciplinary problem-solving that marks the best
Kiribati—not to mention former Secretary of State John
education today. Students may spend the morning
Kerry and the former chief executive officer of GE, Jeff
studying global trade with a government economist
Immelt. In most cases, these visitors not only spoke to
who worked on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and then
the university but also took the time to engage with SFS
head to the Federal Reserve in the afternoon to research
students in small groups. There simply is not a more
capital flows. Classes from Monday to Wednesday
powerful university forum in the world for the leaders
might give way to an internship at Freedom House on
and thinkers who matter most in international affairs.
Thursday and Friday.
sfs.georgetown.edu | sfscontact@georgetown.edu | 202 . 687 . 5696
28
SPONSORED SECTION
Hiroaki Ataka
Associate Professor
Graduate School of International Relations
Ritsumeikan University
Perspectives in an
important role than ever. How is your
school responding?
Age of Uncertainty
Understanding diverse views and perspectives is a
strength in uncertain times, and that is a skill we foster
and champion at GSIR. Located in Kyoto, the ancient
What innovative ways has your program found capital of Japan and home to multiple World Heritage
to prepare students for an age of uncertainty? sites, our school attracts many international students
as well as faculty members, who make up over two-
We are living in a period of transformation. The world thirds and one-fourth of our intellectual community,
has witnessed dynamic changes, and continuity of the respectively.
postwar liberal order has been called into question. In order to enrich our students’ educational experi
Such times of profound change create opportunities ence, we recently launched the global and Japanese
as well as uncertainties. perspectives program (GJP), which is taught in both
Our Graduate School of International Relations English and Japanese. The program specifically prepares
(GSIR) offers innovative programs and courses that students to examine global issues from the Japanese
prepare students for an age of uncertainty by introducing and Asian perspectives, along with other established
them to different perspectives and experiences. The approaches to these issues. Students focus on the
dual master’s degree program, which offers qualified experience and history of Japan and of Asian countries
students the opportunity to study at two institutions, to develop alternative and critical insights to world
enhances our students’ flexibility in approaching an affairs. They will also have the opportunity to acquire
uncertain world and in addressing the issues they Japanese language skills through courses such as the
may face. “GJP platform”, where students learn about Japan and
For instance, in the global cooperation program, international relations either in Japanese or in English,
which is taught in English, students learn the theo depending on the language that they wish to improve.
retical foundations and the practical applications of For students who want to build a career in Japan
international cooperation from seasoned academics after their studies, the program offers courses in busi
and experienced professionals. They study side-by-side ness management and the economy in Japan as well
with domestic students, international students from as Japan’s role in East Asia, Japan in world history, and
over thirty-two countries, and foreign government Japanese politics and foreign relations, which give them
officials who come to GSIR via prestigious scholar the understanding necessary to develop a successful
ship programs offered by the Japanese government. career in Japan. GSIR also connects students to intern
Courses like “professional training” provide hands-on ship opportunities that complement their education
experience concerning the rapidly changing world of and increase their skills in the global market place.
international development in Asia and beyond by spe
cialists who have worked for national and international
organizations. The dual master’s degree improves the
students’ ability to respond to developing situations
and prepare them to work anywhere in the world
upon graduation.
www.ritsumei.ac.jp/gsir/eng | ir-adm@st.ritsumei.ac.jp | +81 75 . 465 . 1211
29
SPONSORED SECTION
Alejandro Pérez
Alumnus, Master of Arts in International Relations, 2002
Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs
Syracuse University
Director of Federal Affairs, California Department of Justice
Former Deputy Assistant to President Barack Obama
in a World of
strategic guidance on a wide range of major
issues, some of them international in focus and
some of them not. How did Maxwell prepare you?
Differences On Capitol Hill, you have an opportunity to make
major contributions in the policy arena, but you need
The power of Alejandro Pérez’s international relations to absorb, understand, and distill a wide range of
degree is its breadth. Maxwell’s Master of Arts (MA) complex subjects quickly, and you need to put your
program uniquely combines international scholarship thoughts on paper concisely. From international
with transferable leadership and management skills trade, the environment, and national security to taxes,
drawn from the number-one ranked public affairs health care, and education, Maxwell’s interdisciplinary
program in the country. Backed by a required internship approach to public policy issues offers a unique space
in Washington, DC, or abroad, the degree provides for developing and enhancing this type of analytical
excellent preparation and access for public service thinking. In addition, the range of disciplines and
professionals to find and succeed at their vocation. viewpoints at Maxwell challenged my thinking and
As a political science undergraduate who grew up prepared me for the diversity of backgrounds and
on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, Perez first pre partisan viewpoints on Capitol Hill and for building
pared for a career in the U.S. Foreign Service; however, coalitions across various groups.
he later discovered a passion for policymaking. In all
cases, Maxwell served him. How does your current work for the Attorney
General of California build on your prior
You have spent eighteen years on Capitol Hill experiences?
and in the White House. How did your time at My job now is to monitor federal legislation in Washington
Maxwell impact your career path? through the California lens to keep the California
Maxwell’s MA program, with its built-in flexibility and Congressional delegation up to speed on the Attorney
diverse intellectual community, gave me the tools to General’s actions and to partner with them to defend
develop my own path and exposed me to people who and advance California’s interests. Some of these
were also trying to find their own paths. Through its have an international dimension—immigration and
Washington program, it gave me the opportunity to clean energy and the environment are key issues in
participate in internships at the Department of State and California, for example. Much of my work pertains to
on Capitol Hill. During those internships, I discovered domestic policy, like health care. Both are served by
that I enjoyed international work, but I also decided my Maxwell degree.
that rather than serving in diplomacy, I would prefer Wherever I end up serving, I believe there is a posi
to help shape foreign policy. tive role for government to play, and my main goal is
to be part of a government that helps people. Maxwell
shares that belief and prepared me well.
maxwell.syr.edu/paia | paia@maxwell.syr.edu | 315 . 443 . 4000
30
SPONSORED SECTION
Analyzing Uncertain
requires all students to have a grounding in international
negotiations: there is no challenge facing us today that
Times in International
can be solved by one country or institution alone. We
are also putting a renewed emphasis on quantitative
analysis. Good decisions are made on the basis of good
How is the Pardee School curriculum adapting What specific skills does the Pardee School
to the changes in the world and preparing for provide students, which will prepare students
the future? for their desired career paths?
The key to understanding, thriving in, and improving a Pardee has two unique features. The first is a strong
world that is changing in rather unpredictable ways is interdisciplinary faculty, including world-class experts
the ability to see how seemingly disparate events and on international relations, history, political science, soci
trends influence each other. Our curriculum is designed ology, international security, and regional studies. The
to give our students a solid foundation in international second is the hearty collaboration between traditional
diplomacy and negotiations, international economics, academics and professors of the practice. Our students
quantitative analysis, global governance, and research work with professors who have spent their careers in
design. Graduates will be able to discern the interplay of studying and writing on the key issues of our times and
different factors, such as shifting centers of economic with professors who come from careers in diplomacy,
development, the role of religion, and the rise of non- intelligence, and the military, benefitting from their
traditional actors, and how they influence the direction experiences in policy formulation and implementation.
of world events. With this strong foundation, students We also offer experiential learning, where students,
will be able to delve more deeply into their particular both individually and in groups, take on projects and
areas of interest. When they graduate, our students research opportunities for real-world clients. Indeed,
will have the specialized knowledge they need, with two of our recent graduates were hired to implement
the broad vision to put it into perspective. To do well, recommendations from their graduate research papers.
both depth and breadth are required. We expect our students to approach their studies with
these practical applications in mind.
The merit of learning from and understanding
diverse perspectives now takes a more
important role than ever. How is the Pardee
School responding?
One of the changes we are most excited about is
introducing a strong component on ethics throughout
our curriculum. Decisions and policies have conse
quences, and even well-intentioned actions can have
unanticipated negative effects. We want our students
to consider the challenges confronting policy makers, to
recognize that sometimes there are no “right” answers,
and to know that life cannot be reduced to bumper
sticker slogans. Improving the human condition is only
possible with a strong, ethical base. A second change
bu.edu/pardeeschool | psgsgrad@bu.edu | 617 . 353 . 9349
31
SPONSORED SECTION
Larry Napper
Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy
Ambassador (ret) in the U.S. Foreign Service
The Bush School of Government and Public Service
Texas A&M University
Celebrating 20 years
practical public service available to students. Foreign
language study, international internships or language
of Service: Preparing
immersion, and study abroad trips to countries like China
and Germany deepen the international experience. A
capstone research project for a real-world client, such
the Next Generation as the CIA, the State Department, or the United Nations
Development Program, provides hands-on research
In its 20th anniversary year, the Bush School of How does a Bush School education set
Government and Public Service is fulfilling its man students apart?
date from President George H. W. Bush to prepare Bush School students have wide latitude to shape their
the next generation of principled public servants to study program to meet current interests and prepare
cope with the unprecedented challenges of the 21st for a great career in public service. We encourage
century international landscape. Bush School faculty unconventional thinking about pressing issues that
and students hold and express a wide variety of views range from gender in American foreign policy to grand
on the challenges facing our nation, and they do it with strategy to the politics of trade and development. A
integrity, civility, and mutual respect. The blended typical second year at the Bush School might include
faculty of scholars and practitioners, many of whom an internship with the Defense Ministry of Latvia or the
served in government and NGOs, offer guidance on U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi, a simulated NSC meeting
both the theory and practice of effective and ethical with the President on an international crisis, a VTC
service in public institutions charged with ensuring with students at the Russian Diplomatic Academy in
national security. Texas A&M offers Bush School Moscow, and a briefing of the Commanding General of
students access to the myriad of resources of a the U.S. Special Operations Command on the results of
60,000-student, Tier One research university and a student-led capstone research project on emerging
membership in the Aggie network of thousands of terrorist threats.
graduates already serving in government, the armed The Bush School offers this quality education at
forces, diplomacy, and the private sector. an affordable cost so students can pursue their fields
of interest without acquiring burdensome debt. As
How does the Bush School help students a public institution, Texas A&M offers some of the
acquire the critical thinking and communication lowest tuition/fees among the APSIA schools. As a
skills essential to effective public service? premiere graduate school, the Bush School tops that
Bush School students learn by doing: researching, with scholarships to all admitted MIA students, backing
analyzing, and framing complex issues for policymak our commitment to educating future public servants.
ers. Students write both original research papers and
two-page action memos designed to extract a deci
sion from a harried policymaker. They are challenged
to think on their feet, deliver cogent and poised oral
arguments, and defend their conclusions in spirited
and respectful debate. The principles of effective
leadership in public policy institutions are integral
to our curriculum and to the many opportunities for
bush.tamu.edu | bushschooladmissions@tamu.edu | 979 . 862 . 3476
32
SPONSORED SECTION
Policy-Relevant
with diverse groups opens channels of communication,
allows for real-time responses to policy inquires, and
facilitates dynamic programmatic changes that respond
www.du.edu/korbel | korbeladm@du.edu | 303 . 871 . 2544
33
SPONSORED SECTION
Directory
American University Georgetown University
School of International Service Walsh School of Foreign Service
american.edu/sis sfs.georgetown.edu
sisgrad@american.edu sfscontact@georgetown.edu
202 . 885 . 1646 202 . 687 . 5696
34
SPONSORED SECTION
Directory (continued)
NYU School of Professional Studies Thunderbird School of Global Management
Center for Global Affairs Arizona State University
15 Barclay Street, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10007 www.thunderbird.asu.edu
www.sps.nyu.edu/cga admissions.tbird@asu.edu
212 . 998 . 7 100 602 . 978 . 7 100 or 800 . 457 . 6966 (US)
35
SPONSORED SECTION
Directory (continued)
The University of Texas at Austin Waseda University
Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies
lbj.utexas.edu www.waseda.jp/gsaps/en
lbjadmit@austin.utexas.edu gsaps@list.waseda.jp
512 . 471 . 3200
Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
University of Washington jackson.yale.edu
Henry M. Jackson School of jackson.institute@yale.edu
International Studies 203 . 432 . 6253
jsis.washington.edu
jsisadv@uw.edu
206 . 543 . 6001
About APSIA
The Association of Professional Schools of Visit APSIA.org to discover what you can do
International Affairs (APSIA) brings together with an APSIA degree, learn about hiring APSIA
the leading graduate programs dedicated to students and alumni, register for admissions
professional education in international affairs. events around the world and online, and find
Members have demonstrated excellence in fellowship and scholarship information.
multidisciplinary, policy-oriented international
studies.
Association of Professional Schools
APSIA strengthens members and affiliates by of International Affairs (APSIA)
sharing information. It promotes international www.apsia.org | apsia@apsia.org
affairs education through online and in-person 202.559.5831
events and supports employers in finding highly-
qualified personnel.
36
Return to Table of Contents
O
ne of the privileges of power that Americans routinely abuse is
to remember selectively. It was not surprising, then, that this
year’s centennial of the United States’ entry into World War I
attracted barely any official attention. A House resolution commending
“the brave members of the United States Armed Forces for their efforts
in ‘making the world safe for democracy’” never made it out of commit-
tee. And although the Senate did endorse a fatuous decree “expressing
gratitude and appreciation” for the declaration of war passed back in April
1917, the White House ignored the anniversary altogether. As far as
Washington is concerned, that conflict retains little or no political salience.
It was not always so, of course. For those who lived through it, the
“war to end all wars” was a searing experience. In its wake came acute
disillusionment, compounded by a sense of having been deceived about
its origins and purposes. The horrific conflict seemed only to create
new problems; President Woodrow Wilson’s insistence in a 1919 speech
that the 116,000 American soldiers lost in that war had “saved the liberty
of the world” rang hollow.
So 20 years later, when another European conflict presented Americans
with a fresh opportunity to rescue liberty, many balked. A second war
against Germany on behalf of France and the United Kingdom, they
believed, was unlikely to produce more satisfactory results than the
first. Those intent on keeping the United States out of that war organ
ized a nationwide, grass-roots campaign led by the America First
Committee. During its brief existence, the movement enlisted more
supporters than the Tea Party, was better organized than Occupy Wall
Street or Black Lives Matter, and wielded more political clout than
the “resistance” to President Donald Trump.
ANDREW J. BACEVICH is Professor Emeritus of International Relations and History at Boston
University and the author of America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History.
September/October 2017 57
Andrew J. Bacevich
Yet despite drawing support from across the political spectrum, the
movement failed. Well before the Pearl Harbor attack in December
1941, President Franklin Roosevelt had embarked on a program of
incremental intervention aimed at bringing the United States into the
war as a full-fledged belligerent. When it came to Nazi Germany,
Roosevelt believed that the putative lessons of World War I—above
all, that France and the United Kingdom had played the United States
for a sucker—did not apply. He castigated those who disagreed as
“enemies of democracy” aligned with fascists, communists, and “every
group devoted to bigotry and racial and religious intolerance.” In effect,
Roosevelt painted anti-interventionism as anti-American, and the
smear stuck. The phrase “America first” became a term of derision. To
the extent that anti-interventionist sentiment survived, it did so as a
fringe phenomenon, associated with the extreme right and the far left.
For decades, World War II remained at the forefront of the American
historical consciousness, easily overshadowing World War I. Politicians
and pundits regularly paid homage to World War II’s canonical
lessons, warning against the dangers of appeasement and emphasizing
the need to confront evil. As for “America first,” the slogan that had
resonated with those reeling from World War I, it appeared irredeem-
able, retaining about as much political salience as the Free Silver and
Prohibition movements. Then came Trump, and the irredeemable
enjoyed sudden redemption.
58 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Saving “America First”
September/October 2017 59
Andrew J. Bacevich
60 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Saving “America First”
September/October 2017 61
Andrew J. Bacevich
62 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
CO LU M B I A U N I V E R S I T Y P R E SS
Inside Terrorism
Third Edition
BRUCE HOFFMAN
“Bruce Hoffman has produced a most welcome new and updated edition of his classic
work, a book that provides an essential foundation for understanding the rapidly changing
contours of terrorism. The third edition of Inside Terrorism is as timely, relevant, and
analytically probing as ever.”
—Martha Crenshaw, Stanford University, coauthor of Countering Terrorism: No Simple Solutions
Professional
Transforming the UN System_Foreign Affairs_Half Page Horizontal.indd 1 3/2/17 10:36 AM
DeveloPment
in russia
Since 2004, the Alfa Fellowship Program has provided over 150 emerging leaders
from the U.S., U.K., and Germany with the opportunity to gain professional experience
in the fields of business, media, law, policy, and other related areas through an
11-month, fully-funded fellowship in Moscow.
As part of the program, fellows:
• Work at prominent organizations in Moscow
• Learn about current affairs via meetings, seminars, and regional travel
• Build Russian language skills
Program benefits: monthly stipend, program-related travel costs, housing, insurance
Eligibility: relevant professional experience, graduate degree or the equivalent,
evidence of leadership potential, commitment to the region
Deadline to apply for the 2018-2019 program year: December 1, 2017
September/October 2017 63
Andrew J. Bacevich
64 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Saving “America First”
September/October 2017 65
Andrew J. Bacevich
POTUS ON NOTICE
All these suggestions amount to little more than common sense. Yet
given the state of U.S. politics, defined above all by the outsize role
of the president, none of it is likely to happen. In that regard, the
most immediate goal of an “America first” policy must be to restore
some semblance of constitutional balance. That means curtailing
presidential power, an aim that is all the more urgent with Trump in
the White House.
In utopian globalist circles, however, the thought of constraining
executive authority is anathema. The entire national security apparatus
is invested in the proposition that the president should function as a
sort of quasi deity, wielding life-and-death authority. Disagree, and
you’ve rendered yourself ineligible for employment on the seventh
floor of the State Department, in the E Ring of the Pentagon, at cia
headquarters, or anywhere within a half mile of the Oval Office.
This line of thinking dates back to the debate over whether to enter
World War II. Roosevelt won that fight and, as a result, endowed his
successors with extraordinary latitude on issues of national security.
Ever since, in moments of uncertainty or perceived peril, Americans
have deferred to presidents making the case, as Roosevelt did, that
military action is necessary to keep them safe.
Yet Trump, to put it mildly, is no Roosevelt. More to the point,
both the world and the United States have changed in innumerable
ways. Although the lessons of World War II may still retain some
legitimacy, in today’s radically different circumstances, they do not
suffice. So although the risks of ill-considered appeasement persist,
other dangers are at least as worrisome—among them, recklessness,
hubris, and self-deception. In 1940, the original America First move-
ment warned against such tendencies, which had in recent memory
produced the catastrophe of World War I and which would lay the
basis for even worse things to come. Today, those warnings deserve
attention, especially given the recklessness, hubris, and self-deception
that Trump displays daily.
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I
t is a truth universally acknowledged that the world is connected
as never before. Once upon a time, it was believed that there
were six degrees of separation between each individual and any
other person on the planet (including Kevin Bacon). For Facebook
users today, the average degree of separation is 3.57. But perhaps that
is not entirely a good thing. As Evan Williams, one of the founders
of Twitter, told The New York Times in May 2017, “I thought once
everybody could speak freely and exchange information and ideas,
the world is automatically going to be a better place. I was wrong
about that.”
Speaking at Harvard’s commencement that same month, Facebook’s
chair and ceo, Mark Zuckerberg, looked back on his undergraduate
ambition to “connect the whole world.” “This idea was so clear to us,”
he recalled, “that all people want to connect. . . . My hope was never
to build a company, but to make an impact.” Zuckerberg has certainly
done that, but it is doubtful that it was the impact he dreamed of in
his dorm room. In his address, Zuckerberg identified a series of
challenges facing his generation, among them: “tens of millions of
jobs [being] replaced by automation,” inequality (“there is something
wrong with our system when I can leave here and make billions of
dollars in ten years while millions of students can’t afford to pay off their
loans”), and “the forces of authoritarianism, isolationism, and national-
ism,” which oppose “the flow of knowledge, trade, and immigration.”
What he omitted to mention was the substantial contributions that
NIALL FERGUSON is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author of the forth-
coming book The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, From the Freemasons to Facebook
(Penguin Press, 2018), from which this essay is adapted. Follow him on Twitter @nfergus.
68 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
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GOING VIRAL
Third, the structure of a network determines its virality. As recent
work by the social scientists Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler has
shown, the contagiousness of a disease or an idea depends as much on
a social network’s structure as on the inherent properties of the virus
or meme. The history of the late eighteenth century illustrates that
point well. The ideas that inspired both the American Revolution and
the French Revolution were essentially the same, and both were trans-
mitted through the networks of correspondence, publication, and
sociability. But the network structures of Colonial America and ancien
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Niall Ferguson
NETWORKS NETWORK
The fifth insight is that networks interact with one another, and it
takes a network to defeat a network. When networks link up with
other networks, innovation often results. But networks can also attack
one another. A good example is the way the Cambridge University
intellectual society known as the Apostles came under attack by the
kgb in the 1930s. In one of the most successful intelligence operations
of the twentieth century, the Soviets managed to recruit several spies
from the Apostles’ ranks, yielding immense numbers of high-level
British and Allied documents during and after World War II.
The case illustrates one of the core weakness of distributed net-
works. It was not only the Cambridge intelligentsia that the Soviets
penetrated; they also hacked into the entire old-boy network that ran
the British government in the twentieth century. They were able to do
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A
s Americans awaken to a rising China that now rivals the United
States in every arena, many seek comfort in the conviction
that as China grows richer and stronger, it will follow in the
footsteps of Germany, Japan, and other countries that have undergone
profound transformations and emerged as advanced liberal democracies.
In this view, the magic cocktail of globalization, market-based consum-
erism, and integration into the rule-based international order will
eventually lead China to become democratic at home and to develop
into what former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick once
described as “a responsible stakeholder” abroad.
Samuel Huntington disagreed. In his essay “The Clash of Civili-
zations?,” published in this magazine in 1993, the political scientist
argued that, far from dissolving in a global liberal world order, cultural
fault lines would become a defining feature of the post–Cold War
world. Huntington’s argument is remembered today primarily for its
prescience in spotlighting the divide between “Western and Islamic
civilizations”—a rift that was revealed most vividly by the 9/11 attacks
and their aftermath. But Huntington saw the gulf between the U.S.-led
West and Chinese civilization as just as deep, enduring, and consequen-
tial. As he put it, “The very notion that there could be a ‘universal
civilization’ is a Western idea, directly at odds with the particularism
of most Asian societies and their emphasis on what distinguishes one
people from another.”
The years since have bolstered Huntington’s case. The coming decades
will only strengthen it further. The United States embodies what Hun-
tington considered Western civilization. And tensions between American
GRAHAM ALLISON is Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy
School of Government. This essay is adapted from his book Destined for War: Can America
and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017).
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China, order is the highest value, and harmony results from a hierarchy
in which participants obey Confucius’ first imperative: Know thy place.
This view applies not only to domestic society but also to global
affairs, where the Chinese view holds that China’s rightful place is atop
the pyramid; other states should be arranged as subordinate tributaries.
The American view is somewhat different. Since at least the end of World
War II, Washington has sought to prevent the emergence of a “peer com-
petitor” that could challenge U.S. military dominance. But postwar
American conceptions of international order have also emphasized the
need for a rule-based global system that restrains even the United States.
Finally, the Americans and the Chinese think about time and experi-
ence its passage differently. Americans tend to focus on the present and
often count in hours or days. Chinese, on the other hand, are more
historical-minded and often think in terms of decades and even centuries.
Of course, these are sweeping generalizations that are by necessity
reductive and not fully reflective of the complexities of American and
Chinese society. But they also provide important reminders that policy
makers in the United States and China should keep in mind in seeking
to manage this competition without war.
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is weak, then the provinces and their counties are run by little warlords.”
Accordingly, the sort of strong central government that Americans
resist represents to the Chinese the principal agent advancing order
and the public good at home and abroad.
For Americans, democracy is the only just form of government:
authorities derive their legitimacy from the consent of the governed.
That is not the prevailing view in China, where it is common to believe
that the government earns or losses political legitimacy based on its
performance. In a provocative ted Talk delivered in 2013, the Shanghai-
based venture capitalist Eric Li challenged democracy’s presumed
superiority. “I was asked once, ‘The
party wasn’t voted in by election.
In some ways, Chinese Where is the source of legitimacy?’” he
exceptionalism is more recounted. “I said, ‘How about compe-
sweeping than its tency?’” He went on to remind his au-
American counterpart. dience that in 1949, when the Chinese
Community Party took power, “China
was mired in civil war, dismembered by
foreign aggression, [and] average life expectancy at that time [was] 41
years. Today [China] is the second-largest economy in the world, an
industrial powerhouse, and its people live in increasing prosperity.”
Washington and Beijing also have distinctively different approaches
when it comes to promoting their fundamental political values interna-
tionally. Americans believe that human rights and democracy are univer-
sal aspirations, requiring only the example of the United States (and
sometimes a neoimperialist nudge) to be realized everywhere. The
United States is, as Huntington wrote in his follow-on book, The Clash of
Civilizations, “a missionary nation,” driven by the belief “that the non-
Western peoples should commit themselves to the Western values . . .
and should embody these values in their institutions.” Most Americans
believe that democratic rights will benefit anyone, anywhere in the world.
Over the decades, Washington has pursued a foreign policy that seeks
to advance the cause of democracy—even, on occasion, attempting to
impose it on those who have failed to embrace it themselves. In contrast,
although the Chinese believe that others can look up to them, admire their
virtues, and even attempt to mimic their behavior, China’s leaders have
not proselytized on behalf of their approach. As the American diplomat
Henry Kissinger has noted, imperial China “did not export its ideas but
let others come to seek them.” And unsurprisingly, Chinese leaders have
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they take today will simply contribute to that evolution. For instance,
since 1949, Taiwan has been ruled by what Beijing considers rogue
Chinese nationalists. Although Chinese leaders insist that Taiwan
remains an integral part of China, they have pursued a long-term
strategy involving tightening economic and social entanglements to
slowly suck the island back into the fold.
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Return to Table of Contents
Making Government
Smarter
How to Set National Priorities
Bjorn Lomborg
T
hese days, people for the most part believe that governments
should try to promote the general welfare of the populations
they serve. The disagreements come over how to do that—what
goals to focus on, what policies to adopt, and so on. These questions
are usually approached through broad intellectual frameworks, such
as political ideology or religion, and much time is spent debating the
finer points of various doctrines. Often overlooked, however, is a simple
and easy way to make lives better: use routine cost-benefit analysis to
compare the expected returns from alternative policies and then choose
the more effective ones.
Effectiveness sounds dull. But what if an extra dollar or rupee in a
budget could feed ten people instead of one? Or if $100,000 of inter-
national aid spending could be tweaked so it would save ten times as
many lives? When the stakes are this high, efficiency in spending be-
comes a moral imperative. Moreover, unlike debates over ideology or
religion, debates over efficiency can actually get somewhere, because
there is a straightforward mechanism for resolving them: compare the
predictable costs and benefits of different courses of action and see
which yields more bang for the buck.
Surely, this is just common sense, one might say, and governments
must do it all time. Maybe they should, but in the real world, they rarely
do—partly because this analysis involves a lot of work, but mostly
because the results can be inconvenient, showing that a preferred policy
is inefficient or even that elements of existing government bureaucracy
may be unnecessary. Unsurprisingly, nobody wants to be the superfluous
BJORN LOMBORG is President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and Visiting
Professor at the Copenhagen Business School.
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the Danish embassy in Dhaka. We worked with all the major players in
Bangladesh to assess what kinds of spending (both for the government’s
$30 billion annual budget and for the $3 billion in development aid
given by outside organizations) would do the most good for the country.
The results were startling: they showed that major gains in national
well-being could be achieved simply by rearranging budgets to favor
policies with high returns on investment.
We began with the country’s latest five-year plan, which shapes
most conversations about national development. Partnering with brac,
the world’s largest nongovernmental development organization, we
took each of the plan’s 20 topic areas, from gender equality to urban-
ization, and noted all the associated policies. Then we invited several
hundred thought leaders from government, the academy, nongovern-
mental organizations, donors, and the private sector to add their own
recommendations. This ultimately yielded 1,000 proposals, about half
overlapping with those in the plan, on topics as varied as infrastruc-
ture, tax reform, public health, and more.
In 20 roundtables, we asked Bangladeshi experts to look at all the
proposals and rank them—specifically identifying which ideas had the
most potential or were likely to be politically popular, and also which
had enough empirical data available to make a thorough examination
possible. That whittled the list down to 76 proposals. Then, 30 teams
of local and foreign economists estimated the costs and benefits of all
76 proposals. Most of the costs were monetary, but the benefits included
several noneconomic ones as well.
Take a proposal to promote wetland conservation in the Sundarbans,
a vast mangrove forest on the coast of the Bay of Bengal. It would
help address climate change, enhance biodiversity, and create oppor-
tunities for fishing and tourism. The projected benefits added up to
almost $4 billion, for a cost of $1.4 billion, generating a predicted
nearly $3 of benefits for every $1 spent.
Or take an early childhood education program that would help kids
overcome setbacks from stunting. Stunting is caused by poor nutrition
or repeated early infections, and its effects can last for many decades,
with afflicted children earning less than their peers ever after. The
program would bring specialists to work with stunted children and
their parents to improve the children’s development skills, and the
evidence shows that such efforts can boost the children’s lifetime
earnings by 25 percent, completely eliminating the stunting effect.
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In Bangladesh, such a program would cost about $160 per child and
increase each child’s future earnings by $2,884. So every $1 invested
would bring an $18 return.
The Bangladesh Priorities project has generated more than 1,150
pages of peer-reviewed studies, available for free online and to be
published in a two-volume book. Changes in spending require public
support, so we published more than 40 articles on the research results
in the largest Bengali and English newspapers, with a combined reader-
ship of more than ten million people. To help spread the message
even more, we combined all the results in one chart, showing the bang
for the buck of all 76 policies evaluated: the longer the line, the greater
the multiplier effect.
TB OR NOT TB
To compare the policies fairly against one another, we had to translate
all their impacts into a single ultimate scale of value, using common
assumptions and calculations. For example, across all the studies, we used
a standard figure for the economic value of a year of life and standard
discount rates to calculate the value of future costs and benefits. Even
so, the figures can obviously be only rough estimates, because of the
inherent uncertainties involved in many of the projections.
Moreover, efficiency is not the only important value; governments
need to consider other factors as well, such as justice, equality, and
political sustainability. So we built in additional rounds of discus-
sion in which the calculations and rankings could be challenged,
including having a special panel of top economists scrutinize all the
findings, make sure all variables were considered, and adjust the
rankings as appropriate.
For example, microfinance programs have a relatively low economic
return, but they promote equality and often benefit the poorest of
the poor and so have more going for them than one might assume
at first glance. A similar effect is true for family subsidies designed
to prevent child marriage. The educational benefits of a delay in
marriage are well established, but the broader social and health
benefits are challenging to study. A simple economic cost-benefit
analysis underestimates these and overlooks the moral benefits of
deterring child marriage.
In the end, the project’s most important finding related to the treat-
ment of tuberculosis. It turns out that one in every 11 deaths in Bang
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94 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Benefit-to-Cost Ratios in Bangladesh
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Expand government e-procurement 663
Offer more services at rural digital centers DIGITAL INNOVATION
Expand broadband access
Digitize land records 619
Invest in Golden Rice R & D ≤ 329
Deliver nutrients to 6-month- to 5-year-olds NUTRITION
Deliver hypertension medication
Discourage smokeless tobacco use
Raise the tobacco tax to 50% by 2021 NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASES
Expand diabetes treatment
Treat and immunize for cervical cancer
Offer newborn in-home care by health workers
Provide iron and folic acid in pregnancy
Train more traditional birth attendants
Increase access to TB treatment
HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM & ACCESS
Immunize children in urban slums
Expand birth facilities with skilled attendants
Immunize children in remote areas
Treat drug-resistant TB intensively
Replace kerosene with shared diesel
Use imported and domestic coal for power
ENERGY
Import coal for more power
Replace kerosene with household solar
Enforce garment factory compliance
Liberalize trade
INDUSTRIAL POLICY & TRADE
Create special zones for garment factories
Invest in trade facilitation
Offer migration services at rural digital centers
Offer seasonal migration stipends MIGRATION
Offer skills training for migrants
Stimulate stunted children
Group and teach students according to ability
Offer on-the-job management training
Improve teacher accountability
EDUCATION
Improve school management
Provide vocational training
Expand computer-assisted learning
Buy more standard inputs, e.g., textbooks
Expand village courts GOVERNANCE & INSTITUTIONS
Treat arsenic in water for 20% worst affected
Treat arsenic for all affected households
WATER & SANITATION
Improve sanitation
Promote hand washing
Retrofit kilns
Buy biomass cooking stoves
Buy new hybrid kilns ENVIRONMENT & BIODIVERSITY
Restore Buriganga River system
Buy LPG cooking stoves
Invest in solid waste management in Dhaka
URBANIZATION
Improve storm water drainage in Dhaka
Reform VAT and automate collection REVENUE COLLECTION
Increase secondary education for girls
Deter child marriage with subsidies
GENDER EQUALITY
Improve access to contraception
Enact dowry and child marriage laws
Greatly expand bus network
Invest in transport infrastructure for Dhaka
Improve roads to northeastern India TRANSPORTATION
Build the Padma Bridge
Improve roads to Bhutan and Nepal
Boost agricultural productivity
Protect mangroves in the Sundarbans
Promote resettlement to manufacturing cities
CLIMATE CHANGE
Build early warning systems and shelters
Build polders where flood level is below 3 m
Build polders where flood level exceeds 3 m
Develop bond market CAPITAL & FINANCIAL MARKETS
Expand flexible microfinance
Expand poverty graduation program
Expand traditional microfinance ANTIPOVERTY
Expand livelihood programs
Disburse unconditional cash transfers
source: Copenhagen Consensus Center.
Bjorn Lomborg
DIESEL WIN
Doing this sort of exercise properly enables policymakers to see whether
familiar nostrums live up to their billing. Bangladesh, and especially its
garment industry, has benefited from trade liberalization, for example. But
by how much? Now we can say that each $1 spent on further trade liberal-
ization would bring the country $10 in benefits. Bangladesh has battled
naturally occurring arsenic in its groundwater for decades, to cite another
example. Now we can say that every extra $1 invested in fixing the prob-
lem for the worst-affected households would return $17 worth of benefits.
Even more important, this sort of process enables previously obscure
ideas to get the audition and acceptance they deserve. Take a policy to
counter malnutrition by providing small children with micronutrient
supplements, including iodized salt, vitamin A, and zinc. Delivering
the supplements would cost roughly $125 per child in need—in return
for which the child would be healthier, do better in school, and have
higher lifetime earnings. The result? For every $1 spent, the supple-
ments program would generate $19 in benefits.
Or take retrofitting kilns. More than a thousand kilns across Dhaka
manufacture four billion bricks each year, emitting so much pollution
along the way that the city’s air quality is often 16 times as bad as
international standards. This air pollution kills 2,000 people each
year. Upgrading the kilns with improved technology would make
them burn more cleanly and efficiently and decrease fuel consumption
by a fifth. And every $1 spent would yield $8 in value.
This kind of exercise also enables policymakers to tell which celebrated
programs aren’t particularly effective, especially on a comparative basis.
Household solar projects, for example, are darlings of the development
community, but analysis by the economist A.K. Enamul Haque—
who also co-wrote the recent World Bank report on solar energy in
Bangladesh—showed that the panels produce only $1.80 in benefits
for every $1 spent on them. Why such a poor showing? Because solar
panels are relatively expensive and deliver fairly little energy, avail-
able for only a few hours at night.
Haque noted that most rich Bangladeshis use diesel generators
rather than solar panels to provide alternative electricity sources during
power cuts. So he decided to test whether it made sense for poorer
Bangladeshis to emulate their richer neighbors. And sure enough, if
five households chipped in to split the cost of a diesel generator, each
$1 spent would yield $25 of benefits—even after accounting for the
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complete e-procurement in two years, and his new budget sets aside
$12 million for the effort. And the recommendations on nutrition
have already been incorporated into the National Plan of Action for
Nutrition, helping the country spend $1.5 billion over ten years even
better. “Policymakers prioritize between competing options many times
every single day,” Tofail Ahmed, Bangladesh’s minister of commerce,
observed. “This project will help us to take a step back and ask, where
are the areas where we should focus more attention and resources?”
At this point, the Copenhagen Consensus Center is continuing to
work with brac in Bangladesh, helping move the reforms from con-
cept to implementation. And what of our own project’s cost-benefit
ratio? One immediate result has been the government’s decision to
rapidly scale up its e-procurement. This will cost some $60 million
in total, but the benefits will run to about $700 million every year.
The move would likely have happened eventually anyway, but even
if we can claim responsibility for only half the benefits for just the
first year, that still means that the $2.5 million project has generated
$350 million in benefits for Bangladesh, or $140 back on the dollar.
If we were to include the impact of the other 75 proposals, the benefits
would be even higher.
There is nothing special about Bangladesh when it comes to the
potential gains to be realized. Any country could do a project like this,
and we’re currently working on similar efforts for Haiti and India. This
type of project is not a panacea for all of the world’s problems, and it
would be naive to expect most of the gains to be realized. Nevertheless,
the scale of the possible upside is so vast as to be sobering. For example,
we estimate that shifting a mere one percent of Bangladeshi govern-
ment spending from mediocre programs to great ones could end up
producing more than $35 billion worth of social benefits every five
years—a whole additional government budget’s worth.
Too often, politicians, voters, and donors fall for the bald eagle at
the charity fair, letting catchy marketing and heart-rending anecdotes
capture their imaginations and their wallets. But cost-benefit analysis
provides a powerful tool to see the true track records and potential
benefits of the policy alternatives before us, helping more people live
longer, healthier, better lives. The moral is simple: If you really want
to make the world dance, don’t forget about the price tag. Check it
very carefully.∂
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SPONSORED REPORT
[www.gmipost.com] TAIWAN
A Continuous Transformation
By David Tawei Lee, Ph.D., Minister of Foreign Affairs
T
aiwan remains committed to strengthening economic and trade ties with countries around the
world, including the United States, while fostering development in partner nations across the
globe.
In the 1950s and 1960s, healthcare and vocational the passion and professional- royalties for patented tech-
Taiwan embarked on a pro- training, Taiwan has launched ism of our personnel. They nologies. In addition, some of
gram of industrialization so scores of international coop- deliver real and effective aid in our military purchases are not
transformative that it would eration projects in allied and communities across the globe included in U.S. trade statistics.
become known, by the 1970s, partner nations. and accelerate economic and To gain a more accurate pic-
as the Taiwan Economic Mir- Under these programs, our social development in partner ture of our trade relationship,
acle. With the help of inter- overseas specialists provide countries. we need to factor in these
national partners such as the assistance to those most in sales, as well as services relat-
United States and through the need, as well as convey our Mutually Beneficial Trade ed to intellectual property.
concerted efforts of Taiwan’s experiences in establishing with the United States In response to President
government and people, our Taiwan is committed to Trump’s “Buy American, Hire
economy rapidly transitioned strengthening economic and American” policy, Taiwan has
over the latter half of the 20th investment ties with its trading sent its largest ever delegation
century from labor-intensive partners including the United to the SelectUSA Investment
sectors to high-tech manu- States. Our two countries have Summit in June. An agricultural
facturing, which set the stage long enjoyed robust trade links mission will also visit major
for Taiwan’s emergence as a characterized by high levels of U.S. agricultural states to pur-
world-leading technology hub. supply chain integration, espe- chase large quantities of crops
Today, the country plays an cially in high-tech manufactur- like corn, soybeans and wheat.
indispensable role in the global ing. Many Taiwan companies
supply chains for numerous In 2016, the United States that have made substantial
critical technology products. was Taiwan’s second-largest investments in the United
Taiwan’s competitive edge trading partner, while Taiwan States, including those in
derives from its vibrant small was the 10th-biggest trading Apple Inc.’s supply chain, are
and medium enterprises. David Tawei Lee, Ph.D., Minister partner of the United States. seeking to expand their Ameri-
Comprising some 97 percent of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan Notably, Taiwan was also the can operations. As a result,
of the nation’s companies, seventh-largest agricultural Taiwan investments in the
SMEs are the drivers of inno- one of the world’s leading na- export market of the United country, which reached an ac-
vation and powerful vehicles tional healthcare systems. States. cumulated total of $26 billion
for equitable growth. As such, Taiwan’s assistance pro- U.S. President Donald by 2016, could increase to $35
the development of Taiwan’s grams emphasize capac- Trump has expressed concern billion in the short to medium
thriving SME culture is a regu- ity building in line with the old about his nation’s trade deficits term.
lar topic of discussion at Asia- adage that we do not simply and has signed an executive Ultimately, our goal is to
Pacific Economic Cooperation give people fish, but teach order to investigate bilateral bolster economic ties with the
(APEC) meetings and other in- them how to fish. Through ties wherein it runs significant United States while expand-
ternational forums. our diverse vocational train- imbalances. Taiwan is listed ing lines of communication to
ing programs, specialists equip 14th among the 16 countries deepen discussions on issues
Sharing Development young people from recipient subject to such scrutiny, with of mutual concern. Given the
Experience countries with practical skills the United States having re- complementary nature of our
As Taiwan carved out a vital in areas such as carpentry and corded a trade-in-goods defi- economies, we also believe
position in the world econo- plumbing. cit of around $13.3 billion with that a trade agreement is in
my, we moved from a recipi- Over the past year, I have Taiwan last year. the best interest of both sides.
ent to a donor of international visited many nations to in- But that figure does not re- Such an accord would further
aid, while also eagerly sharing spect projects implemented flect the mutually beneficial boost trade and investment,
our development expertise. by our overseas medical, tech- nature of our trade links. Each thus elevating our longstand-
Capitalizing on our strengths nical and trade missions. And year, Taiwanese tech compa- ing and healthy economic
in such areas as agriculture, I am constantly impressed by nies pay U.S. firms significant partnership to a new level.
[Global Media Inc. / www.gmipost.com] SSponsored
ponsored R
Report
eport
ous neighbors, Taiwan group’s many companies send “Before, our university only ues to flourish.
has invested a lot into executives down to speak to emphasized its hospital ser- These factors have created
its schools, knowing very well the students so that after they vices but were not involved in an atmosphere that allows
that the foundation of a suc- graduate, they know exactly the economic development,” small and medium sized enter-
cessful and sustainable society what they need to do,” Univer- Liu added. prises on the island to thrive,
lies in its people and the qual- sity Chairman Chi-Tai Feng said. With this “pre-incubator” ap- among them TaiwanJ Pharma-
ity of the education they re- “We are not trying to build a proach to education, KMU al- ceuticals, which has a team of
ceive. great academic institution. We lows new ideas to flourish as it only 30 people.
While currently several of are trying to produce interna- also provides business-related TaiwanJ Pharmaceutical CEO
Taiwan’s top universities are tional financial experts,” added classes that may encourage Dr. Shih Ying-Chu is very proud
public, the private sector has Feng, who pointed out that its students to start their own of their impressive results from
become more active in shap- the school provides scholar- company involving medicine its clinical trials of its liver dis-
ing Taiwan’s next generation. ships to less fortunate students. or a related field. It also uses its ease drugs. In operation only
Only a few years old, CBTC In Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s sec- close ties to local and national since 2011, the company has
Financial Management College ond-largest city, another pri- government to create an envi- successfully completed two
in the southern city of Tainan vate institution is committed ronment for growth not only phases of trials and is on their
is focused on preparing the to raising the quality of educa- within its campus but across third and fourth phases of test-
country’s next generation for tion for its future doctors. Taiwan as well. ing, all in collaboration with
life after graduation. “We have thoroughly inte- American counterparts.
Believing that life skills plays grated our affiliated hospital so Exporting good health “We are a group of very
an important part in educa- that all of the efforts are more around the world honest scientists with a good
tion, the school, funded by economical and efficient. This Life-changing discoveries reputation. We are looking for
banking giant China Trust has been a major focus since in the fields of medical and sustainable growth both in Tai-
Banking Corporation, uses its our 60th anniversary three biotechnology have put Tai- wan and in the international
extensive network in the busi- years ago. Our midterm goals wan in the spotlight the past community. We also welcome
ness world to instruct its stu- involve putting more emphasis few decades. With strong IP everyone to participate in our
dents. on innovation and entrepre- protection, transparent legal upcoming IPO. Check out our
“Our professors are bank neurship from our faculty and and financial systems, strong performance. The trials speak
presidents, vice presidents in students,” Kaohsiung Medical pursuits of innovation, as well for themselves,” Shih also said.
charge of insurance, security University President Dr. Ching- as cost effective and efficient Meanwhile, Charsire Bio-
technology, based in the
Southern Taiwan Science Park
in Tainan, has developed or-
ganic solutions with botanical
drugs. With clinical trials under-
way in various neurodegenera-
tive areas, Charsire has raised
funds for additional research
through the sales and market-
ing of their skin care line.
“By selling these products,
we not only financially support
our research but we also gain
valuable market data from our
customers. This human expe-
rience helps us create better
products,” said President Yi-
Hung Weng.
“Charsire is quite special
since we started with plant-
based drug R&D. Our skincare
products are both botani-
cal and topical, which makes
them very safe. The experience
we gained from selling these
products gave us the confi-
dence to pursue clinical trials,”
Weng added.
Transforming Technology
Often called the “Island of
Innovation,” Taiwan is home to
some of the technology and
Sponsored Report [Global Media Inc. / www.gmipost.com]
electronic giants that have With a new operations plant that has really helped us con- products. We also want to
transformed our daily lives, in North Carolina, Yeh has not nect with Asia and beyond,” play a role in establishing a
such as Foxconn, Taiwan Semi- only added more value to his General Manager Vincent Sun regional maintenance center
TAIWAN
conductor Manufacturing North American customer explained. JYR Aviation is GE here in Taiwan,” said recently-
Company, HTC and Acer. base, but he placates the cur- Aviation’s only certified distrib- promoted Army Gen. Chang
This deeply-ingrained spirit rent administration’s push for utor in the Asia Pacific region. Guan-chung, who is Deputy
of innovation has since spread American-made products, And while industry lead- Minister of Defense and a
across Taiwan’s other industries while being able to fulfill the ers strive to cut costs without former president of NCSIST.
and has made the country a needs of the U.S. Department compromising on quality, JYR Historically, NCSIST’s engi-
vital link in the global supply of Defense. Aviation fills a gap in the sup- neers and scientists have had
chain. In central Taiwan, LinkWin ply chain. “We are very new to to be creative and resourceful
A so-called old world indus- Technology takes the textile in- aerospace, yet we have many in compensating for its limited
try, textile manufacturing in dustry in a different innovative experienced and talented en- access to foreign technologies
Taiwan still remains at the top direction. Through extensive gineers. Because of this we and spare parts. This challeng-
of the global game because carbon material research and have our own way of thinking ing environment has strength-
it continually adopts the lat- development, LinkWin makes and are able to reduce costs ened its capacity to innovate
est machinery and technol- carbon fibers for various indus- and lead times. We are very ex- and develop custom-made
ogy. With its development of tries. perienced newcomers to aero- systems, sub-systems, com-
functional fibers and yarns, the “Typicallly, artificial carbon space,” Sun also said. ponents and materials for de-
country has become a hub for fibers are used in aerospace Meanwhile, the National fense and civilian applications.
textile manufacturing in the applications, such as NASA, Chungshan Institute of Sci- Because of its strong capa-
region. SpaceX and other special ap- ence and Technology has been bilities in system integration,
An early adopter of industry plications. Medical applications responsible for developing Tai- NCSIST makes home-grown
4.0, Everest Textile has trans- of our products are expand- wan’s defense systems and ca- systems that are compatible to
formed its facility into a truly ing and we look to collaborate pabilities for close to 50 years many foreign systems, includ-
smart factory. Nearly 30-years- with foreign countries and and is now looking to become ing those used in the United
old, Everest has been a driving companies to further fund our a major player in the global de- States, an often overlooked ad-
force in Taiwan’s textile manu- research,” said LinkWin Presi- fense industry. vantage.
facturing with a profile that dent Arthur Cheng. “We hope to be a part “We firmly believe that we
includes top apparel brands While medical applications of the international supply have the capabilities and nec-
such as Nike, North Face and are LinkWin’s main focus at the chain and work with other essary experience to work with
Columbia Sportswear. moment, Cheng is open to major defense companies, other international partners,”
“Our focus has been on in- working with other industries. even in jointly developing Chang said.
novation for many years. We
invest a lot of money in it. We Aviation and Defense
always have new ideas, new Keep Soaring
products. This is our way. We JYR Aviation, a member of
are a learning organization. We the JY Group, is tasked with
are hungry to learn and to take adding value to the conglom-
action,” said Everest President erate’s product line. Taking a
Roger Yeh, who continues small but essential part, JYR
to push for more sustainable Aviation extensively tested its
ways to run his business. own screws with other indus-
His efforts have paid off. tries before it found success in
By reducing electricity usage the aerospace industry.
throughout his factory and us- “We are also seeing an in-
ing an all natural cooling sys- crease in our machine parts
tem, Everest has saved $2 mil- orders. We have a great rela-
lion on energy expenses alone. tionship with GE Aviation and
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report
eport
A
s centers of research and innova- cine or even in culture and heritage,” Su NCKU is also a leader in academia-in-
tion, higher education institutions said. dustry collaboration. It has the highest
play a significant role in the de- “More and more, we are playing a percentage of commercialized intellec-
velopment of countries. In Taiwan, over pivotal role not only as an international tual properties and made history with its
just a few decades, universities have higher education institution but also as involvement in the single highest licens-
made valuable contributions to the as- a global citizen,” she added. ing fee of $40 million.
tounding progress made by the entire Established nearly a century ago, “The strength of the university is nt
country. NCKU has expanded its influence be- only that we continuously strive to raise
National Cheng Kung University yond the main campus in the southern the quality of our research. We also en-
President Dr. Jenny Su has made it her city of Tainan. The university’s work has sure through IP licensing, that every dis-
mission to ensure that her students had a tangible impact on the life of the covery will deliver an impact,” Su said.
contribute to the ongoing mission of entire country. Focused on improving interdisciplin-
nation-building. When a dengue fever epidemic struck ary collaboration between its depart-
“This institution will be a fully en- Tainan in 2015, NCKU organized stu- ments, NCKU forecasts a very exciting
gaged academy. Through education, we dents and faculty to assist the city in future as a model for other academic
will cultivate top level human capital for containing the outbreak. Following this institutions in terms of innovation and
society and the country, whether that successful effort, Dr. Su and NCKU real- international collaboration.
be in science and technology, biomedi- ized that the city, as well as the entire “We would like to see a platform that
country, would benefit from the school’s will better connect us to global centers.
science-based medicine and various in- One of our strengths is connecting aca-
novations, including many in computer demic experiences with real life chal-
applications, robotics systems and IoT lenges. Our goal is to realize and deliver
systems and design. on this connection. I see that as the val-
“Our role not only lies in our aca- ue of the university,” Su said.
demic reputation but also in our ser-
vice to the people around the city and No. 1, University Road,
the country which is rooted to our noble East District,Tainan City,
calling of being a responsible global citi- 701 TAIWAN
zen,” Su also said. http://web.ncku.edu.tw/
NCKU President Dr. Jenny Su Outside of its social contributions,
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TAIWAN
T
he island-nation of Tai- In this initial period, prog- one of the few R&D institutions
wan has long prided itself ress was hindered by a severe worldwide to implement both
on maintaining stable shortage of the hardware, deep systems integration and
social order, low crime rates, instruments, laboratories, and product diversification.
and a prosperous economy. Its test sites required to support With these systems in place,
dynamic semiconductor indus- an adequate defense program. NCSIST has spent recent years
try has driven the worldwide Taiwan also did not have many developing the new genera-
boom of information and com- experts in defense technology. tion of its homegrown missile Deputy Minister of Defense
munication technology. More- With little in terms of guidance, technology: the Tien Kung III and former NCSIST President
over, Taiwan’s vibrant demo- NCSIST broke new ground with anti-tactical ballistic missile area Gen. Chang Guan-chung
cratic system recently elected its the development of short-range defense system, the Hsiung
first-ever female president. missiles and self-propelled rock- Feng III supersonic anti-ship NCSIST are adapted by private
In conjunction with these ets, fully aware that the accumu- missile and the air-launched enterprises to develop innova-
achievements, Taiwan has lated experience – and failures Wan Chien remote attack mis- tive industrial and consumer
also faced urgent geopoliti- notwithstanding – would slowly sile, which together bolster Tai- products that strengthen these
cal and diplomatic obstacles. but surely lead to success. wan’s combat readiness. companies’ market value. These
Surmounting these challenges Finally, in the 1980s, NCSIST include target materials, tita-
will require the contribution of found commendable success Superior performance nium golf club heads, advanced
Taiwanese institutions dedicat- with the development of its first During annual military exer- bearings, electronic devices for
ed to the country’s long-term three missiles and one fighter cises, Taiwan tests the perfor- the AMS space magnetic spec-
development. Among these is jet: the Tien Kung surface-to-air mance and effectiveness of its trometer multinational project,
the National Chung Shan Insti- missile, the Tien Chien air-to-air own weapons against those community-type green power
tute of Science and Technology missile, the Hsiung Feng anti- purchased from abroad. In these systems, and high-speed railway
(NCSIST ), ship mis- field tests, NCSIST’s weapon sys- components.
a research sile, and the tems have outperformed equip-
facility com- indigenous ment bought from overseas, Mapping out the future
prising tal- defense while also proving more reliable In order to bolster the
ented, tech- fighter (IDF) and more affordable to main- national defense industry and
nologically jet. These tain. spur NCSIST ’s momentum,
innovative milestone the Taiwanese government
experts who achieve- Bridging defense re-branded the organization
work tire - m e n t s to industry from a research institute under
lessly behind allowed Taiwan is home to prominent the Ministry of Defense into an
the scenes Taiwan to manufacturers of the world’s administrative corporation in
to ensure indirectly high-tech products, as well as 2014.
T a i w a n ’ s HF III supersonic anti-ship missile purchase birthplace to several giants of The change allows NCSIST
long-term weapons the global supply chain in a greater flexibility and more
defense and national security. and equipment from the inter- wide range freedom to
national community, thereby of industries. cooperate
Age of growth strengthening its defense capa- In the local with foreign
NCSIST was formally estab- bilities. defense entities and
lished in 1969, following the industr y, par ticipate
ambitious expansion of the bal- Vertical integration, NCSIST plays in forming
listic missile and nuclear bomb horizontal expansion a vital role in government
strength by the People’s Repub- In the 1990s, the international converging policy. Since
lic of China’s, as well as a series community tightened regula- these civil- then, NCSIST
of diplomatic setbacks for the tions on Taiwan’s arms industry ian techno- has joined
Republic of China, which includ- in response to the changing logical capa- large -scale
ed withdrawal from the United geopolitical landscape. Amid bilities into national
Nations, the loss of key political these challenges, NCSIST imple- the manu- TK III ATBM and air defense system projects,
alliances, and the overall disrup- mented a system of vertical facturing, such as the
tion of the country’s internation- integration in order to make the maintenance and upgrade of Homemade High-level Training
al relations. key modules, components and self-made weapon systems and Aircraft, Homemade Warship
At the time, Taiwan had a materials required by its weap- foreign equipment, including and Homemade Submarine.
poorly developed national on systems, which could no missile parts, wireless commu- In the future, NCSIST antici-
defense program. Moreover, longer be obtained from foreign nication devices, bulletproof pates more successes, as it tack-
limited diplomatic resources providers. NCSIST also widened armor plate, and composite les the enormous responsibil-
precluded the feasibility of the scope of its R&D program to armors. ity of developing the national
obtaining weapons from over- meet military demands, which In line with the institute’s defense industry, expands par-
seas. Against an increasingly included radars, communication mission to ultimately employ ticipation in the international
grim military threat, Taiwan ini- systems, command and control its defense technology for mili- market, and faces geopolitical
tiated its own weapon system systems and missile systems. tary and civilian benefit, the challenges on the global stage.
programs. This transition made NCSIST core technologies offered by www.ncsist.org.tw
[Global Media Inc. / www.gmipost.com] SSponsored
ponsored R
Report
eport
TAIWAN
Return to Table of Contents
The Congressional
Apprentice
How Trump Is Approaching Capitol Hill
Jeff Bergner
W
ithin 100 days of his inauguration as U.S. president, Donald
Trump had concluded that the U.S. legislative process is
“a very tough system.” He is hardly the first occupant of
the Oval Office to arrive at that judgment. Every new president finds
interaction with Congress more difficult than expected. But what is
challenging for any president was bound to be even more so for Trump—
especially given the political climate in the United States today.
Trump ascended to the highest office in the land with no previous
political experience, few settled policy views, and a combative style that
had created enemies in quarters not usual for political leaders. With
transactional instincts honed by decades in the business world, Trump has
an approach that is characterized by speed and finality—hardly the hall-
marks of the U.S. Congress. Instead of one place or person for a presi-
dent to work with, there are two houses and two political parties, several
dozen committees, various informal voting blocs, and a range of quasi-
congressional bodies such as the Congressional Budget Office. A deal
struck with one group must wend its way through the rest of the legis-
lative process. It might change significantly in the process, as in the case
of current Republican health-care legislation, which took several forms in
the House of Representatives, a brand new form in the Senate, and a
yet-to-be-determined form if there is ever a House-Senate conference.
Or it might die altogether, as in the case of the 2013 immigration-reform
legislation, which passed in the Senate but died in the House.
JEFF BERGNER is an Adjunct Professor at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and
Public Policy at the University of Virginia. He served as Staff Director of the U.S. Senate
Committee on Foreign Relations from 1985 to 1986 and as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State
for Legislative Affairs from 2005 to 2008.
September/October 2017 99
Jeff Bergner
100 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Congressional Apprentice
The House always wins? Trump addressing a joint session of Congress, February 2017
Congressional Democrats today are wallowing in the irrelevancy of
total “resistance.” What Democrats once denounced as nearly criminal
Republican obstruction during the Obama administration is now billed
as essential for the preservation of the republic. For Trump and congres-
sional Republican leaders alike, that makes attempting to negotiate with
the Democrats a near-certain waste of time. Even though a handful of
congressional Democrats have spoken about working with Republicans
on health-care reform, their conditions for beginning negotiations
include retaining every major provision of Obamacare. But the Demo-
crats’ irrelevance also means that, with Republicans controlling both the
House and the Senate, failure to advance significant legislation cannot
be blamed on the opposition.
Many congressional Republicans, including the House and Senate
leaderships, are uncomfortable with a number of Trump’s stated
positions. They resist the sudden or radical departures from the
status quo that Trump has called for: massively increasing funding
for a border wall, upsetting relationships with Washington’s nato
JIM BOU RG / REUTE RS
budget plans, such as providing more funding for a border wall and
defunding Planned Parenthood, were largely replaced by congressional
preferences. House and Senate Republicans are committed to working
with Trump, but they will continue to moderate his positions in many
areas as they do. But it is interesting that it may be Trump who ends
up moderating congressional Republicans on health-care reform.
The Trump administration’s slowness in naming political appointees
has helped congressional Republicans expand their role. Typically,
senior political appointees bring a settled,
Congressional Republicans, institutional quality to an administration’s
policies and work closely with members
not the president, will set of Congress to advance an administra-
the bounds of what is tion’s priorities. Trump has moved more
possible. slowly than his predecessors to fill politi-
cal slots (for the understandable reasons
of not wanting to nominate individuals
who opposed his election and not wanting his presidency to settle into
business as usual). The resulting vacuum has given Congress wide latitude
to shape Republican policies.
For the administration, the process will only grow more challenging
from here. What Trump gets from Congress now is as good as he will
get. Six months after inauguration day, a newly elected president can
usually still expect something of a honeymoon with members of his own
party. Trump has not enjoyed much of one, and congressional indepen-
dence will grow as the 2018 midterm elections near.
Trump has a strong stake in maintaining Republican control of the
House and the Senate. If the Democrats recapture the House in the
2018 midterm elections, he will face far deeper difficulties not only on
legislative policy issues but also with the investigative mechanisms of the
House. Democratic control would likely mean nonstop committee
investigations, subpoenas, and threats of impeachment. That would
cripple Trump’s ability to win any serious legislative victories.
Yet congressional Republicans have even more at stake than Trump
does. Their entire political world is on the line: leadership positions,
committee chairmanships, staffs, and fundraising capabilities. Accord-
ingly, as the elections approach, they will increasingly look out for
themselves. And what now looks like presidential policy deference to
Congress is likely by mid-2018 to look more like “leading from behind.”
102 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Congressional Apprentice
bill that can pass both houses of Congress will look very different.
Trump’s plan calls for comprehensive reform and deep cuts in tax
rates, and it makes no effort to achieve
There is no stronger force in revenue neutrality. A congressional bill
is likely to push for a reduction in the
American politics than a number of personal income tax brack-
unified Congress. ets and a limited net tax cut, along
with corporate tax reform, which has
been politically viable since the Obama
administration. Tax reform has a natural advantage over other kinds
of policy legislation: despite Democrats’ rhetorical opposition to
any Republican tax bill, it will be difficult for Democrats in contested
states or districts to vote against tax cuts. If the scope of the presi-
dent’s tax-reform plan is reduced, it will not be at all surprising to
see a number of Democrats in the House and the Senate join with
Republicans to support the resulting bill.
Congress will also significantly diverge from Trump in crafting a
fiscal year 2018 spending bill. The administration has presented a
2018 budget that proposes substantial changes, including many re-
ductions, across the board. Some of these, such as cuts to Planned
Parenthood (if not achieved in a health-care reform bill), reflect long-
standing Republican objectives. But many other proposed reductions
are opposed not only by Democrats but also by Republican leaders
and appropriators. Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s budget director, has
signaled that the administration’s proposal is an opening offer—the
art of the deal at work—and that he expects changes as the process
unfolds. Both Trump and the Republican congressional leadership
would be well advised to agree in advance on a limited number of
priorities for the bill—increased defense spending, funding for the
border wall, cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency, or what-
ever they may be—and then declare victory if and when they
achieve those goals.
In all these areas, the dynamic between the legislative and executive
branches will look quite different than it did during much of the
Obama presidency. For decades, Congress has largely relinquished
key parts of its constitutional role. It has ceded authority on issues
such as finance, immigration, and environmental protection to reg-
ulatory bodies. It has handed over the authority to go to war to the
White House. During much of the Obama administration, Congress
104 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Congressional Apprentice
CONGRESS AWAKENED
In Washington today, the conventional wisdom holds that Trump
is unlikely to finish 2017 with a strong record of policy accomplishments.
Yet should he continue to learn how to work with a newly assertive
Congress, he may defy that conventional wisdom. If he emerges from
the first session of the current Congress with a health-care bill, a tax
106 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Congressional Apprentice
D
onald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has
a point about Europe and nato. In May, in a speech at the
alliance’s headquarters, in Brussels, he told his fellow leaders
that “nato members must finally contribute their fair share.” In July,
he repeated the warning in Warsaw. “Europe must do more,” he said.
European leaders may find these demands grating, especially given
Trump’s unpopularity among their constituents, but they should heed
them. In recent years, Europe has become a dangerous place. In search
of domestic support, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to
aggression abroad, invading Ukraine and intervening in Syria. Since
any one military adventure can provide only a temporary popularity
boost, Putin will always need new victims. That makes him an ongoing
threat. Just when nato has once again become necessary for Europe’s
security, however, Trump’s election has thrown the future of the U.S.
role in the alliance into doubt.
For these reasons, Trump is right: to strengthen nato and encourage
the United States to continue its commitment to European security, the
alliance’s European members should contribute more. Just as important
for European and Western security, however, is for the United States to
lead other multilateral initiatives to defend the interests and values that
North America and Europe have in common. Without that leadership,
Europe—and the rest of the world—will be a harsher place.
OLD MISTAKES
For the two and a half decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union,
the word that candidate Trump used to describe nato—“obsolete”—
MICHAEL MANDELBAUM is Christian A. Herter Professor Emeritus of American Foreign
Policy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the
author of Mission Failure: America and the World in the Post–Cold War Era.
108 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Pay Up, Europe
Although Putin and his regime bear the primary responsibility for
the return of war to Europe, the West, particularly the United States,
has unintentionally helped bring about this dangerous state of affairs.
In the 1990s, nato expanded eastward, against the wishes of Russians
across the political spectrum, even those favorably disposed to the West,
and in spite of earlier assurances by Western leaders to their Soviet and,
later, Russian counterparts that no such expansion would occur.
The West also pursued other policies to which Russia objected in
vain, including the U.S.-led wars in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Iraq and the
unilateral U.S. withdrawal in 2002 from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Mis-
sile Treaty, an agreement that had restricted the number of missile
defense systems the Soviet Union and the United States could build.
Together, these initiatives created a constituency for Putin’s claim,
used to justify his aggressive foreign policies, that the West was pur-
suing an anti-Russian campaign that he was acting to thwart.
Whereas nato expansion mobilized Russia, it tranquilized the
West. To gain domestic acceptance of the policy, Western govern-
ments portrayed it as a harmless gesture of goodwill made by an organ
ization that was transforming itself from a defensive multinational
army into a benign club of democracies. Expansion, its sponsors
claimed, would require no exertion or expense on the part of current
nato members. Nor would Russia object to it, they added, in spite of
considerable evidence to the contrary. These false claims have left the
ultimate arbiters of nato’s fate—the voters of the alliance’s member
countries—unprepared for the renewed threat in Europe and the need
for increased efforts to meet it.
It is worth recalling the blunder of nato expansion and the effects that
the subsequent Western policies have had on Russia in case the country
ever has, as it did at the end of the Cold War, a government willing to
participate in a security order based on cooperation and transparency.
Today, however, it is both too late and too early for such an arrangement.
110 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Pay Up, Europe
that drove Soviet foreign policy. Still, it does challenge Europe in two
familiar ways.
First, it possesses nuclear weapons, which other European countries
must balance with their own or those of the United States. The United
Kingdom and France have maintained
nuclear arsenals since the 1950s and
1960s, respectively. During the Cold
The West has unintentionally
War, the other European members of helped bring about this
nato, particularly West Germany, con dangerous state of affairs.
cluded that these could not deter the
Soviet Union by themselves. Effective deterrence required the United
States’ far larger arsenal. German nuclear weapons could have sub-
stituted for U.S. ones, but no one, least of all the Germans themselves,
wanted Germany to acquire them.
The same principle applies today. In May, German Chancellor
Angela Merkel hinted at reducing Europe’s dependence on the United
States by telling a crowd at a political rally in Munich that “the times
in which we could totally rely on others are to some extent over.” But
without the familiar U.S. role in nato, its European members would
face an unwelcome choice between Russian dominance and German
nuclear weapons.
The second problem that Putin has resurrected involves the three
Baltic countries, all of which belong to nato. According to a 2016
Rand Corporation study by the defense analysts David Shlapak and
Michael Johnson, because Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are so small
and share borders with Russia, “as currently postured, nato cannot
successfully defend” them against a Russian invasion. In the same way,
during the Cold War, the alliance could not hope to defend West Berlin
successfully, a small Western island surrounded by communist East
Germany. Preventing a direct Soviet attack required energetic efforts
by successive U.S. administrations to convince the Soviet Union that
the United States was committed to keeping the city free of communist
control. To protect the Baltic countries from Moscow today, Washington
will have to make a similarly credible commitment.
In September 2014, in a speech in the Estonian capital of Tallinn,
U.S. President Barack Obama declared, “We will defend the territorial
integrity of every single ally . . . because the defense of Tallinn and Riga
and Vilnius is just as important as the defense of Berlin and Paris
and London.” By contrast, during his trip to Europe last May, Trump
ECONOMIC COMPETITION
Important as increased defense spending is, nato cannot effectively
meet the threat that Putin’s Russia poses through military means
alone. After all, the military confrontation between the two Cold War
blocs ended in a stalemate. It was in the economic sphere that the West
triumphed: its free-market economies decisively outperformed the
centrally planned systems of the communist world. The prosperity of
West Germany juxtaposed with the relative economic backwardness of
East Germany offered the most telling contrast.
Today, the rivalry between Ukraine and Russia comes closest to
replicating the competition between the two Germanys. A stable,
prosperous, and democratic Ukraine would provide an example to the
people of Russia that would do more than anything else to discredit
and subvert the kleptocratic Russian political system.
The twin shocks of the Euromaidan revolution and the Russian
invasion have produced a Ukrainian government committed, at least
rhetorically, to liberal democracy and a market-based economy.
112 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Pay Up, Europe
Although it has made some progress, the country remains far from
achieving either. Success will depend principally on the efforts of the
Ukrainians themselves. Still, other countries can provide economic
support for the reformist government in Kiev, as some European coun-
tries, through the eu, have already done. In this way, European countries
are making an important contribution to European security.
In addition to supporting Ukraine, the West has sought to punish
Russia. In response to Russia’s invasion, the United States and the eu
imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals and businesses. To-
gether with the low price of oil, these have hurt the country’s economy,
damaging Putin’s standing with the Russian public. They have also
signaled that further assaults will trigger even stiffer economic penalties.
Because they have taken an economic toll not just on Russia but also
on the countries imposing them, the sanctions have become contro-
versial in Europe. Indeed, Putin may well have reckoned that public
opposition would, before long, force European leaders to lift them. If
so, he was wrong. They have remained in place, largely thanks to the
efforts of Merkel, who understands, as many of her compatriots do
not, the threat that Putin poses. The United States and the eu should
be prepared to impose additional, stiffer economic penalties if Russian
policy warrants them.
GLOBAL THREATS
Europe is not the only place where an aggressive power is threatening
the security of its neighbors. In the Middle East, Iran has pursued
nuclear weapons and fought proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. In response
to its aggression, European countries joined the international sanctions
regime against Iran that preceded the 2015 nuclear agreement, which
slowed Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Given the weakness of the
restraints in that deal and the vigor with which Iran is working to dom-
inate the region, the United States and European countries may soon
need to reimpose economic constraints on the country.
European countries also have a role to play in protecting Western
interests and values in Asia. There, China has claimed sovereignty and
built military bases in disputed areas of the South China Sea. At the
same time, it has wielded its growing economic power to try to extort
political concessions from other Asian countries. In 2010, for instance,
the Chinese government blocked some exports of rare-earth minerals
to Japan until the Japanese government released a Chinese fisherman
114 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
BERMUDA
www.foreignaffairs.com/bermuda2017
660 miles off the United States coast, the North Atlantic islands that constitute Bermuda are hardly lost at
sea. Officially a British overseas territory, Bermuda has developed into a major hub for the offshore industry.
By applying a competitive tax regime, Bermuda has managed to attract international businesses and finance,
turning 54 square kilometers of land into one of the world’s most affluent economies. Following a period of
recession, Bermuda is – more than ever – open for business.
In spring of this year, the eyes of the sporting world
were collectively turned to Bermuda. The world’s
fastest sailing yachts competed for the 35th America’s
Cup in the Great Sound of Bermuda. The high-profile
event was the culmination of years of preparation and
hard work on the part of the small island territory. For
Bermuda, the America’s Cup was not just a commercial
feat, but also a symbolic turning point, marking a
return to economic growth and opportunity.
Bermuda’s economy depends on a services sector
that is vulnerable to changes in demand. Services
account for almost 95% of the territory’s Gross Hon. Michael Dunkley
Domestic Product (GDP), mostly in international Former Premier of Bermuda
business and tourism. This dependence and low
external demand in the (re)insurance and tourism have confidence in Bermuda,” explains Everard Bob
sectors had pushed Bermuda into a six-year recession. Richards, Former Minister of Finance. “We have reduced
The territory is now returning to positive growth the budget deficit every year and are now in the second
– proof of Bermuda’s resilience. As Former Premier year of a three-year plan to eliminate the deficit.”
Michael Dunkley explains, “We are used to withstanding Government, business and the regulatory
storms, we are used to getting back on our feet and we authorities have been cooperating more closely, while
know how to get things done.” an Economic Development Committee was established
In 2016, real GDP grew by 0.6%, a clear departure under the chairmanship of the Premier. The committee
from the negative 2% average of the five previous years. meets on a weekly basis, bringing together key
Growth is expected to accelerate further in 2017 on ministers and senior secretaries to discuss progress
the back of increased economic activity related to the on projects and make sure that investors are given all
America’s Cup, higher investment in the construction due attention and are not faced with delays.
sector, positive growth in tourism and demand for The territory’s size plays to Bermuda’s advantage.
services in the international business sector. “We are big enough to punch above our weight, but we
The government, when first elected in 2012, had are small enough for you to access the people needed to
promoted a two-track strategy to restore confidence in get things done, and get the connections you need. We are
Bermuda: stimulating economic growth and controlling open for business,” says Former Premier Dunkley.
government spending. “The government was running *This report was printed in the magazine the day of the announcement
huge deficits. If we did not demonstrate that we were of Bermuda’s General Election results, and before the formation of a
getting our own house in order, nobody was going to new government.
SPONSORED SECTION | BERMUDA - 2
World-class Exchange
The Bermuda Stock Exchange (BSX) plays a separate “There are over 800 securities listed, 13 of which are
role in facilitating the continued growth of the domestic domestic securities,” says Gregory Wojciechowski, CEO
economy. It operates as a fully-electronic, offshore of the Bermuda Stock Exchange. “Our aggregate market
securities exchange platform, providing full exchange capitalization exceeds $300 billion, while the market
services for domestic and international securities. capitalization for the domestic market is over $2 billion.”
“The fundamental premise of the BSX is to create
a solid foundation for the continued development of
Bermuda’s domestic capital market. This is our primary
focus,” says Wojciechowski. “We provide a mechanism
for the deployment of capital and investment into the
domestic capital market. This is yet another form of
foreign direct investment into Bermuda’s economy.”
The BSX has also been instrumental and committed
to Bermuda becoming the world leader for the creation,
support and listing of Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS). In
2008, Bermuda launched a regulatory framework to support
the creation of Special Purpose Insurers (SPI), the corporate
risk transfer vehicles through which ILS are created. Today,
a significant portion of global ILS Catastrophe Bonds are
listed on the BSX. Currently, the BSX has 216 ILS vehicles
listed with a market capitalization in excess of $24 billion.
“ILS is yet another example of innovation that has
taken place in the industry that found Bermuda’s
regulatory and legal framework, coupled with world-
class infrastructure and services providers to be
the perfect mix for the development and continued
growth of the asset class,” says Wojciechowski.
SPONSORED SECTION | BERMUDA - 3
A Global Insurance and Reinsurance Hub
Insurance and reinsurance remain the bedrock of and total revenues of $10.5 billion in 2016. The company
Bermuda’s economy. In 2015, companies in the sector provides property, casualty and specialty products to
contributed 28% of Bermuda’s total GDP. industrial, commercial and professional firms, insurance
The Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA) confirmed companies and other enterprises world-wide, through its
Bermuda to be the global leader in the captive insurance subsidiaries and under the XL Catlin brand.
market in 2016, with more overall captives registered “We rank among the 10 largest commercial insurers
than any other jurisdiction. Bermuda also ranks as and among the 10 largest property and casualty reinsurers,”
one of the largest reinsurance markets in the world. says McGavick. “We service the market on a global scale
Bermuda-based reinsurers’ total net written reinsurance and we are overwhelmingly good at insuring physical things.
premiums exceed those of London-based reinsurers. At the same time, we are investing heavily in targeting the
In 2016, after years of efforts by the BMA and public and private insurance of ideas and the transformation of global wealth.”
sector stakeholders, Bermuda was granted full equivalence in XL Group continues looking for opportunities to grow
compliance with the European Commission Solvency II directive, its global footprint. “We have been rounding out our global
meaning that Bermuda’s commercial (re)insurers and insurance presence and we want to keep deepening our penetration
groups would not be disadvantaged when competing for and with the world’s largest commercial enterprises. We are
writing business in the European Union. one of the few insurance and reinsurance companies that
The U.S. National Association of Insurance has the capability to serve them.”
Commissioners (NAIC) also designated Bermuda and Despite or because of this global orientation, XL
the BMA a “qualified jurisdiction”, thereby allowing Group is comfortably based in Bermuda. As McGavick
cross-border reinsurance trade with the U.S. explains, “You have only a few places in the world
“This bilateral recognition by the world’s two largest with both the capital and the underwriting talent
trading blocs ensures Bermuda’s status as one of the concentrated in one place. Bermuda and London are
three leading reinsurance domiciles in the world,” says the two places that really have that concentration.”
Bradley Kading, President and Executive Director of the “This is still the best place in the world to set up
Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers (ABIR). an insurance company,” says Everard Bob Richards,
Mike McGavick, CEO of the XL Group Ltd., which is Former Minister of Finance. “Even though Bermuda is
headquartered in Bermuda, says, “We encourage tough a relatively expensive jurisdiction, we have advantages
regulation in insurance; it is to our own benefit. The over the combination of cost and availability of expertise.”
duality of good regulation and business opportunity is McGavick agrees that Bermuda is the right choice for
unique in the world. The BMA has done a fantastic job, XL Group. “This is an incredibly efficient place to be. The
solvency equivalence was and has been a huge success.” regulator is well respected, the legal system, everything
XL Group is a leading global insurance and reinsurance makes Bermuda ideal – we are proud to be part of it.”
company that declared total assets worth $58.4 billion Produced by: www.worldprofilegroup.com
Return to Table of Contents
E
ach year, the U.S. military recruits some 175,000 young Ameri-
cans. At the heart of its pitch is a sacred promise to take care
of those who serve—what President Abraham Lincoln described
in his second inaugural address as the national duty “to care for him
who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan.”
Today, this promise is enshrined in the ethics of each service: members
of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and Coast Guard pledge
to never leave a fallen comrade behind. After their service, the Depart-
ment of Veterans Affairs (va) works to fulfill this same promise on behalf
of a grateful nation, enabled by a budget larger than those of the State
Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and the entire
U.S. intelligence community combined.
Most national security discussions focus on strategy or policy. To
the extent that ways and means get considered at all, the talk tends to
center on weapons systems, budgets, bases, and buildings. These matter,
but people matter, too. Service members are an irreplaceable compo-
nent of U.S. national security. And because the United States relies
on an all-volunteer force, how the country treats its troops during and
after their service matters when it comes to sustaining this critical
component of national strength.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq saw incredible advances in body
armor, battlefield medicine, and medical evacuation, all of which
dramatically improved the likelihood that soldiers would survive injuries.
PHILLIP CARTER is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Military, Veterans, and Society
Program at the Center for a New American Security. A former U.S. Army officer and
veteran of the Iraq war, he served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense in 2009.
Follow him on Twitter @Carter_PE.
AT YOUR SERVICE
The social contract with veterans has changed considerably since the
founding of the United States. For economic and political reasons,
the framers of the Constitution envisioned a small standing military,
supported in peacetime by a citizen militia. When wars did break out,
white male citizens were expected to volunteer. Aside from small
pensions for war widows or severely disabled veterans, the government
offered little in return.
This model persisted through most of the eighteenth and nineteenth
centuries. Then came the Civil War. Following the lead of the French
during the Napoleonic Wars, both the North and the South eventually
resorted to conscription for the first time in U.S. history. By the time
the war was over, in 1865, some 3.3 million Americans had served, out
of a total population of 35.2 million. Of these, nearly 500,000 were
killed, with tens of thousands more wounded. During the war, each
side set up battlefield hospitals; afterward, they established convalescent
homes to rehabilitate the injured and veterans’ cemeteries to inter and
memorialize the dead.
Civil War veterans dominated U.S. political life for the next half
century. Veterans’ organizations, such as the Grand Army of the Repub-
lic and the United Confederate Veterans, became powerful domestic
lobbies. They successfully campaigned for expanded government
benefits, such as bigger pensions for disabled veterans and widows
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What America Owes Its Veterans
Deal. During World War I, the United States mustered 4.7 million
troops to fight, including 2.8 million conscripts. Over 115,000 died
and 200,000 were wounded. Just as had happened after the Civil War,
veterans’ organizations that formed in
the wake of this war accrued tremen-
The U.S. military has dous political influence. This time, how
grown increasingly distinct ever, they used that power to secure
from the population as a more expansive health care, life insur-
whole: a part of society, but ance, vocational rehabilitation, and other
programs. In 1930, President Herbert
also apart from it. Hoover worked with Congress to create
the Veterans Administration, the fore-
runner to today’s va, consolidating health care, benefits programs,
and cemetery administration into a single agency for the first time.
After the Great Depression struck, President Franklin Roosevelt
responded by fundamentally changing the role of the federal gov-
ernment in society, vastly expanding social welfare programs—
eventually including those for veterans.
The government’s role in veterans’ affairs increased again during
World War II, in which 16 million men and women served, 400,000 of
whom died and 670,000 of whom were wounded. To prepare for the
return of so many troops, in 1944, Congress unanimously passed the
Servicemen’s Readjustment Act, better known as the gi Bill. It contained
three main provisions: 52 weeks of unemployment compensation, a
veterans’ home loan program offering zero-down-payment mortgages,
and subsidies for higher education. It also appropriated $500 million
for new va hospitals, authorized the va to take over existing military
hospitals, created a veterans’ employment program, and established a
small-business loan program. Together with Roosevelt’s earlier reforms,
these benefits added up to a new social contract with service members.
The government would not simply treat the wounds of war and com-
pensate the disabled and the widowed for their suffering; it would
recognize and reward military service, too.
The gi Bill helped the massive cohort of World War II veterans
make the transition back to civilian life. One congressional study from
1988 estimated that for every $1 the government spent on educational
benefits, veterans returned nearly $7 to public coffers in increased tax
revenue or added economic output. In the ten years after the war, the
government issued 4.3 million home loans to veterans, contributing
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What America Owes Its Veterans
to a housing boom that stimulated the economy and changed the postwar
American landscape.
Even during these halcyon days, however, the va labored to fulfill
its expanded role. To address its various problems, in 1954, President
Dwight Eisenhower appointed his former colleague, General Omar
Bradley, to lead a study of the future of the va. The Bradley Commis-
sion took a conservative view of what veterans were owed, concluding,
“Military service in time of war or peace is an obligation of citizenship
and should not be considered inherently a basis for future Government
benefits.” Helpful as the gi Bill had proved to millions of veterans,
Bradley saw it as unnecessary and unsustainable, particularly since
new programs such as Social Security were intended to provide eco-
nomic security for all Americans.
But Bradley ultimately lost the debate. Veterans fought back hard
against the attempt to cut their cherished programs, and they found
allies in broader society, which had benefited from the tidal wave of
former soldiers buying homes, going to college, and starting businesses.
As the Cold War took off, the Defense Department continued to
recruit or conscript hundreds of thousands of young men, establishing
the first large peacetime military in U.S. history (and contributing
to a veteran population that would peak at over 28 million in 1980).
That military would go to war in Vietnam. As the conflict began
to wind down in 1973, President Richard Nixon ended the use of
conscription, eliminating one of the great contributors to the anti-
war movement. So began the era of the all-volunteer force, which
remains in place today.
In the wake of Nixon’s decision, the demographics of the U.S. military
began to shift dramatically. Although the military had been formally
desegregated for decades, the military (and veteran) population be-
came more racially and ethnically diverse as the self-selection dynamics
of the all-volunteer force took root and as minorities increasingly saw
service as a form of economic mobility. The military also began to
include more women, who gained access to new roles across the force
and now make up the fastest-growing demographic within the veteran
population. Yet without conscription, which drew young Americans from
all classes and regions, the military began to recruit disproportionately
from certain parts of the country and society: the South, the Midwest,
the middle and working classes, and military families. Among those,
the military also recruited a relatively elite group, since not everyone
120 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
What America Owes Its Veterans
their roots back to the Revolutionary War and the core idea of caring
for those wounded in war. Others, such as offering veterans small-
business loans or giving them preference in receiving government
contracts, reflect the more modern aim to reward veterans and attract
new recruits.
Of these various efforts, disability compensation and pensions are
the most expensive: in 2016, the va spent $77 billion on payments
to roughly five million people eligible for such benefits. It devoted
another $14 billion to educational and training programs, including
the Post-9/11 gi Bill; these helped just over one million veterans attend
college or receive vocational training. Alongside these forms of assis-
tance, the va also administers life insurance programs and home loans.
Meanwhile, the Department of Labor runs a veterans’ employment
service, the Small Business Administration offers support for entre-
preneurial veterans, and every federal agency provides contracting
and hiring preferences for veterans.
Like Social Security, most va benefits programs run on autopilot.
Unlike the va’s health-care system, which is classified as discretionary
spending, its benefits system is considered by Congress to be mandatory
spending. Once a veteran earns a benefit, it is paid until it is exhausted,
as with the Post-9/11 gi Bill (which runs for 36 months) and disability
compensation (which generally lasts for a veteran’s lifetime). Controversy
arises only when the system runs aground, as it did in 2011, when the
disability claims backlog reached nearly one million, as veterans of all
ages simultaneously pursued claims for disability from an overworked
system. It also encounters problems if it makes systemic errors, such
as denying claims for Agent Orange–related illnesses or posttraumatic
stress disorder because the evidence of a causal link between military
service and these ailments is tenuous (although, of course, battlefield
conditions are not the best laboratories for randomized controlled trials).
But veterans have come to accept a certain level of friction in the sys-
tem, not unlike what they experienced in the military itself.
Yet many of these benefits fail to fully support modern soldiers’
transitions to civilian life. The va’s disability compensation scheme, for
example, matches neither the realities of contemporary service nor the
American workplace. With longer terms of enlistment and more
frequent deployments, service members often end their tours with at
least some physical effects, from hearing loss to orthopedic injuries or
worse. The current disability system treats every one of these injuries,
122 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
What America Owes Its Veterans
fiscal year 2009 to fiscal year 2017, the va poured $65 billion into
housing, mental health treatment, and other services for veterans
in need. The effort made a huge dent, reducing the number of home-
less veterans from 73,367 in 2007 to 39,471 in 2016. Shortly after
Trump took office, David Shulkin, his secretary of veterans affairs,
announced that the effort would continue, but that instead of simply
counting the absolute number of veterans on the streets, it would
instead aim for the more realistic target of “functional zero,” a goal
that measures the number of homeless veterans against the housing
capacity of a given community.
Veterans are also disproportionately afflicted by alcohol and substance
abuse. Self-medication of posttraumatic stress appears to be one driver;
another may be the tendency of va and military hospitals to overpre-
scribe medication for everything from sports injuries to combat stress
and sleep disorders. The va has set up clinics to treat addicted veterans,
but these lack the resources to meet demand, and other veterans fail
to seek any care at all.
Veterans have also historically been overrepresented in the nation’s
courts, jails, and prisons, although less so in the era of the all-volunteer
force. Across the country, local courts and law enforcement agencies
have joined with social service agencies to form veterans’ courts,
which resemble diversionary programs for other populations, such as
juveniles. For nonviolent, nonserious crimes, these courts can match
veterans with supportive services, such as substance-abuse counseling
and job placement, in exchange for dismissing or expunging their
charges when they complete these programs. The number of veterans
entering these courts remains small, but they have no doubt helped
many avoid a lifetime of dependency and incarceration.
Another previously marginalized group of veterans has risen to
prominence over the past few years: those discharged with “bad paper,”
frequently the result of minor misconduct while in service, for which
the root cause is often posttraumatic stress. By statute, these former
service members aren’t classified as veterans and are thus denied
access to veterans’ health care and other benefits. But they are far
more likely to struggle with unemployment, homelessness, substance
abuse, and suicide than other veterans. Since they are ineligible for va
support, the burden of supporting these veterans falls on state and
local governments and charities, often costing tens of thousands of
dollars per veteran. In recent years, veterans’ groups, social service
124 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
What America Owes Its Veterans
organizations, and public interest lawyers have argued that these veter-
ans should at least have access to life-saving health care, if not the full
benefits. Shulkin recently embraced this cause, too, although it will
likely take action from Congress to make real headway.
TIME TO RETHINK
In all these areas, change will undoubtedly prove slow and chal-
lenging. Each va program has a constituency that depends on it and
might oppose reform. Long-overdue adjustments to the system for
disability compensation, for example, could include updates to the
antiquated schedule used to rate disability percentages or changes
to the process for evaluating disabilities. Because these changes
would reduce benefits for some, however, for political reasons, current
veterans would have to be grandfathered in. On the health-care side,
increasing the va’s use of private-sector doctors could shorten wait
times, but it could also weaken the agency’s teaching and research
capacity and thus lower the quality of care for those patients who
continue to receive treatment from va doctors. Those veterans who
are generally satisfied with the status quo will look at any major
changes with skepticism.
Cost must factor into the equation, too. The federal government
already spends more on veterans now, in both absolute and per-
veteran terms, than at any point in history—but some reforms will
cost even more. Trump requested a va budget for 2017 totaling
$186 billion, covering health care, benefits, cemeteries, and the admin-
istration of the va. This represents a four percent increase from the
previous year but may still fail to meet veterans’ needs through the
existing agency structure. Over the past 15 years, even as the overall
veteran population has shrunk, the va budget has grown enormously,
since veterans of all generations are increasingly using the system.
And over the next 15 years, demand will no doubt rise, as the va
serves both the Vietnam-era cohort and the post-9/11 cohort. The
Defense Department has reported that as of May 2017, 2,874,820
service members had deployed to Afghanistan, Iraq, or other theaters
of war since 9/11. The Harvard scholar Linda Bilmes has estimated
that the total cost of veterans’ support for the post-9/11 generation
will likely exceed $4 trillion. The majority of this bill will come
due sometime around 2050, because expenditures typically peak
when a cohort reaches its 70s.
126 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
What America Owes Its Veterans
may also hinder veterans’ reintegration into communities and their will-
ingness to seek mental health care, because of a fear of social stigma.
Absent a foreign invasion or a crisis on the scale of World War II, the
country is unlikely to return to conscription or increase the size of the
military to the point where it would fundamentally change its relation-
ship to the rest of society.
To repair the split, then, the military should seek greater geo-
graphic and socioeconomic diversity among its recruits. It should
establish public-private partnerships to support veterans in the work
force. And it should rely on reserve units so as to broaden the mil-
itary’s geographic footprint to include communities away from major
base towns such as Killeen, Texas, and Norfolk, Virginia. Veterans
have a role to play, too. A recent study by the advocacy group Got
Your 6 found that veterans are not always likely to self-identify as
veterans after service, and civilians often think veterans are worse
off than they are. Veterans, particularly those who succeed after
service, must represent the military and explain their service to the
wider population.
For the foreseeable future, the United States will rely on a rela-
tively small, volunteer military. Its success depends on its ability to
draw in high-quality recruits. And that, in turn, depends on the
perception that service will benefit soldiers, their families, and
their country.∂
T
he World Health Organization considering the serious gaps we have. I
was established in 1948 as a think the world should unite and focus
specialized agency of the United on strong health systems to prepare the
Nations charged with improving global whole world to prevent epidemics—or
public health, coordinating the interna- if there is an outbreak, to manage it
tional response to epidemics, and the quickly—because viruses don’t respect
like. In the ensuing decades, its dedicated borders, and they don’t need visas.
staff has served on the frontlines of
public health battles, from the eradica- What do you see as the WHO’s core
tion of smallpox to the fight against aids mission?
to the challenges of noncommunicable The who has a responsibility to prevent,
diseases. In May, the who’s member early-detect, and manage outbreaks, and
countries elected Tedros Adhanom it can do this by strengthening countries’
Ghebreyesus as its new director general. capacity. But we have to do more. Ebola
A malaria researcher, Tedros, as he is has already shown the weaknesses that
known, served as the health minister of we have. So the who should start by
Ethiopia from 2005 to 2012 and as strengthening epidemiological surveil-
foreign minister from 2012 to 2016. He lance and investing in countries’ health
spoke with Foreign Affairs’ deputy systems.
managing editor Stuart Reid in New
York in July. You’ve identified health coverage as one
of your top priorities. What does that
What keeps you up at night? mean in practice?
Epidemics or pandemics. Immediately About a third of countries are covered, a
after the First World War, in 1918, the third are progressing towards universal
D ENIS BALI BOUSE / REUTERS
world encountered the Spanish flu. It was health coverage, and the last third
airborne and killed more than 50 million haven’t started. We will focus on speed-
people. Ebola is lousy compared to that. ing up the progress of those who are
That sometimes keeps me awake at night, making progress and influencing those
because we have to do a lot, especially who haven’t started. The aim of the sdgs
[the un’s Sustainable Development
This interview has been edited and condensed. Goals] is to leave no one behind by 2030.
128 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Tedros in Geneva,
May 2017
Global Health Gets a Checkup
Political commitment is very impor- does now that it should not be in the
tant here. Expanding health coverage is business of doing?
not a technical issue but a political one; Of course, the who should prioritize.
it should be seen as a right and a means I’ve said we need to focus on universal
to development. health coverage, emergency response,
women and children in adolescence, and
What role does the WHO have when it climate change and health. So anything
comes to noncommunicable diseases? outside this will be less of a priority and
First of all, it’s important to recognize get fewer resources.
that noncommunicable diseases are on
the increase globally, both in develop- You’ve also said that you want to profes-
ing countries and in the developed sionalize the WHO’s fundraising opera-
world, due to urbanization and chang- tions. But how can the WHO get more
ing lifestyles. We know many noncom- funding from countries when officials in
municable diseases are related to risk those countries often can’t get the
factors such as smoking, alcohol con- resources they need to run their own
sumption, inactivity, and diet. We can health ministries properly?
address them by building or strength- I think the who in this case is shy. The
ening health systems focused on pre- who only contacts ministries of health,
vention and health promotion. Primary but it should also work with other
health care is especially important. ministries, like the ministry of finance,
Using the media is important. And in the ministry of foreign affairs—even
the education sector, it’s important to, heads of state and government. The who
as part of the curriculum, educate should play its technical leadership role
children on risk factors and help them but at the same time its political leader-
choose a healthy lifestyle. ship role. If you say, “health for all,” it’s
political. And unless you take it to the
Another threat to public health is irrational highest level possible, it cannot happen.
beliefs. In some of the richest communi-
ties, parents don’t vaccinate their chil- What do you plan to do to increase the
dren because they falsely believe vaccines funds available to the WHO from
cause autism. What can be done about governments and private groups that
the spread of misinformation? are not earmarked for specific projects?
Governments have to communicate well Take those earmarked for polio. Seventy-
with the community, and the who can four percent of your employees in
help. In addition to that, we have to use Africa get their salaries from polio
the media. The media is very important funds. We’re now on the verge of
on this. And we can use faith-based eradicating polio, but after the eradica-
organizations and civil society to teach tion of smallpox—arguably the WHO’s
the society to accept vaccination as an greatest success—the infrastructure
important part of child development. and funding sources used in that effort
fell apart. How do you make sure that
Resources—both attention and money— doesn’t happen again?
are finite. Is there anything the WHO We should be creating value for money—
130 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
using all the available money wisely. We
should expand the donor base. We need
to look for new donors apart from the
traditional donors, not only govern-
ments but foundations and the private
sector, as well. We should ask for
flexible funding rather than earmarked
funding. We also need to strengthen
our resource-mobilization capacity. If
we can address these key areas, then we
can reduce our dependency on ear-
marked funding. For polio, we have
already developed an exit strategy.
131
Global Health Gets a Checkup
132 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
A Conversation With Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
they trespassed. We have rules and laws, world who can run organizations. By
like any country. Journalists may or may the way, the un has been run by Afri-
not like a particular law, including in the cans before: Kofi Annan and Boutros
U.S., but even if you don’t like a law, you Boutros-Ghali.
don’t break it. That was the problem.
Otherwise, the media is actually The World Bank has been getting
important. It’s the eyes and ears of the increasingly involved in public health,
society. And the government uses this not just in funding but also in directing
as feedback to intervene where there are policy—developing its own guidelines
problems, and that’s how we used to see for universal health coverage, for
it when I was part of the government. instance. Shouldn’t that fall under the
But be it a journalist or a politician or a WHO’s mandate?
businessman, no one can be above the The global challenges we are facing are
law, because if you do that, it’s very getting more complex, so having more
difficult to govern a country. players is not a problem. I don’t think
the who should compete with the
Critics have also accused you of covering World Bank, and the World Bank doesn’t
up cholera epidemics in Ethiopia. need to compete with the who. We can
Neighboring countries have tens of work together. On many of the things
thousands of cases, and experts say that that the who does, if the World Bank
Ethiopia is currently suffering from an has a competitive advantage, the who
outbreak. Why not just admit it? should let the World Bank do it. If the
I think you have read in The New York Global Fund [to Fight aids, Tuberculosis
Times what Tom Frieden [the former and Malaria] has a better comparative
director of the Centers for Disease advantage, the Global Fund can do it,
Control and Prevention] said [in a or Gavi can do it. At the end of the day,
letter to the editor responding to an the important thing is building effective
article about the allegations]. It doesn’t partnerships to achieve our global
even make any difference whether you health objectives.
call it “cholera,” because the management
is the same. The most important thing U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed
is to respond immediately. budget cuts include a 17 percent de-
crease for the Centers for Disease
You’re the first African head of the WHO. Control and Prevention and an 18 per-
Should developing countries get a cent cut for the National Institutes of
greater voice in global institutions more Health. What would that mean for global
generally? public health?
I think any position in any international That’s not yet finalized. The United
organization should be merit-based. States normally takes a bipartisan
When I competed, that was my platform. position on these issues. I expect that
It’s not about developing or developed the U.S. will contribute its share.∂
world; it’s about selecting the right
people for the position, and there are
many able people from the developing
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Tens of thousands of people did not cross
continents and seas to fight for a third-
string al Qaeda franchise. They came to
fight for a kingdom of heaven on earth.
—Graeme Wood
I
n the last two decades, the story it a more impressive indicator of the
of global jihadism has had more group’s appeal. Young men can be counted
plot reversals than a daytime soap. on to show up in large numbers for just
Moribund groups have sputtered to life, about any war, but a violent cause that
former brothers-in-arms have declared inspires elderly people and women—
one another apostates, and erstwhile including some who are pregnant or
hunters of jihadists have joined their caring for young children—must be
ranks. These twists have bewildered doing something special.
governments and analysts, and anyone The latest effort to explain this
who claims to have recognized them orders-of-magnitude increase in the
and their importance as they were hap number of jihadists is Ali Soufan’s Anatomy
pening is probably lying. of Terror. Soufan had a short but successful
The most important development career as an fbi counterterrorism agent
is contained in two easy-to-remember and interrogator of jihadists. He was born
numbers: 400 and 40,000. On Septem- in Lebanon and speaks Arabic, which is
ber 11, 2001, al Qaeda commanded an still the indispensable language of Sunni
army of 400. A decade and a half later, jihadism (although these days, one can
the Islamic State (or isis) had mobilized get far with English, French, and perhaps
some 40,000 people to travel to Iraq German and Russian). He retired from
and Syria, mostly from the Muslim- the bureau in 2005, while still in his 30s,
majority countries but also from Western after breaking with the cia over its
countries with sizable Muslim commu- torture of detainees. (He had also
nities and even from places with relatively accused the agency of improperly with-
few Muslims, such as Chile and Japan. holding from the fbi intelligence that
The challenge for today’s terrorism might have helped prevent the 9/11
attacks.) Soufan now runs a security firm.
GRAEME WOOD is a national correspondent
for The Atlantic and the author of The Way of the Anatomy of Terror begins with the
Strangers: Encounters With the Islamic State. 2011 U.S. raid in Pakistan that killed
136 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
True Believers
Osama bin Laden. After a long exami- group’s enemies and demands from
nation of the wounded remains of the local populations for security and other
core al Qaeda organization, Soufan ends services that al Qaeda could not hope to
with isis. The book’s most insightful provide. Instead of creating a state, bin
passages follow the life of Saif al-Adel, Laden encouraged fragmentation. Soufan
perhaps the most important al Qaeda likens this strategy to that of McDonald’s,
operative to have evaded apprehension. which offers its franchises significant
(Recent reports place him in Syria, autonomy. Compare that model to that
working to coordinate terrorist cells.) of Starbucks or White Castle, whose
In previous eras, he traveled through every branch is overseen by a corporate
Afghanistan, his native Egypt, Iran, mother ship.
Somalia, and Sudan, supervising jihad Soufan also places deserved emphasis
like an Islamist Che Guevara. Soufan on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian
notes that Adel has a record of being founder of the al Qaeda–linked group that
creative and effective—unlike al Qaeda’s broke away and became isis. As Soufan
stodgy, possibly cave-bound leader, writes, Zarqawi pushed al Qaeda’s brutality
Ayman al-Zawahiri. to unprecedented levels and followed
In isis, Soufan sees little that is bin Laden’s sectarianism to its logical
innovative, and he proposes that this conclusion. Bin Laden and Zawahiri
troubling new phenomenon is a mani- agreed with Zarqawi in theory but objected
festation of a familiar one. “For twenty in practice; they pleaded with Zarqawi
years, the global body politic has been to restrain himself, for example, in his
infected with a virulent disease,” he massacres of Iraqi Shiite civilians. (The
writes. “The name of this malady is older jihadists argued that although many
Bin Ladenism, and the self-proclaimed Shiites were wicked, many others were
Islamic State is merely its most recent just ignorant, and that, in any case,
symptom.” He downplays the rifts butchering them on camera did not
between al Qaeda and isis and mini- advance the Sunni cause.)
mizes the latter’s religious claims by But an uptick in savagery was not by
suggesting that it is primarily a political itself responsible for the changes of the
phenomenon—even, to some degree, last decade. And the factor that most
an outgrowth of the secular Iraqi Baath distinguishes isis from its predecessor
Party of Saddam Hussein. (A number is precisely the one Soufan overlooks:
of former Baathist Iraqi army officers its emphasis on Islamic theology and
worked for isis in its early days.) law. Soufan assures readers that jihadists
Soufan gets many things right. He are not experts on religion. “Believe me,
identifies strategic differences between I have interrogated enough of them to
al Qaeda and isis, including isis’ deci- know,” he writes. “Put four in one room
sion to overcome bin Laden’s aversion and they will state fifty different opin-
to state building and declare a “caliphate” ions [and] pronounce twenty fatwas.”
in its territory. Bin Laden advised his That may have been true in 2005.
followers to avoid that step; controlling Since then, isis has made religious ques-
territory and basing al Qaeda leaders tions the core of its mission. It enforces
there would create targets for the orthodoxy on topics such as who qualifies
as a Muslim, whether Muslims may live only Islamic state, with no law but God’s,
in non-Muslim lands, how an Islamic and with a purity of purpose that even
state should administer itself, and when the Taliban had not envisioned. Tens of
Muslims should overthrow their leaders. thousands of people did not cross conti-
Al Qaeda was political first, religious nents and seas to fight for a third-string
second; it was conspiratorial—an exclusive al Qaeda franchise. They came to fight
club of operatives—and practical. Isis for a kingdom of heaven on earth.
is religious first and political second; it
is public, nonexclusive, and religiously LEAP OF FAITH
uncompromising. No explanation of the Unlike Soufan’s previous book, The
past decade’s jihadist Great Awakening Black Banners, which relied on firsthand
makes sense without taking into account accounts and primary sources, his new one
that contrast. draws almost exclusively on secondary
In preferring to see continuities sources, chiefly the work of journalists,
between al Qaeda and isis, Soufan joins academics, and other analysts. The lack
numerous other terrorism analysts who of primary sources is curious, because
were caught flatfooted when isis went such sources, once scarce, are now easily
global in 2013 and 2014. He is somewhat accessible on the Internet—and sometimes
rarer in maintaining that view three years in real life, as well. Al Qaeda documents
later. Back then, those who saw isis as seldom became public. Isis and its follow-
just another al Qaeda franchise tended ers, by contrast, have flooded the Inter-
not to worry much about its novelty and net with official and unofficial statements,
ambition as a terrorist organization. Unlike transcripts of recruitment interactions,
al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, isis didn’t and exhortations to operatives outside isis
have a known wing devoted to spectacular territory. Anyone with an Internet con
attacks, such as airline bombings. Unlike nection and language skills can read them.
the Taliban, it didn’t seem determined This glut of material has turned the
to march on a national capital. Instead, it field of jihadism studies on its head.
appeared content to putter in the desert, Once, experts waited for scraps of
pathetic and mostly harmless. It controlled data—a rare glimpse of a document,
nothing of value. It threatened no inter- for example. But even though they had
ests of the United States. In early 2014, too little information, they thought
U.S. President Barack Obama famously they knew how to analyze what they
referred to the group as the “jv team” had. Now they have truckloads of data,
of jihad. It is strange to say this now, and it is the analysis that needs an
but at the time, it seemed that the best upgrade. Soufan’s book suffers from
strategy for defeating isis was to let it this fault to an uncommon degree.
do its thing and eventually wither. In letters that U.S. forces captured
But what looked like the runt of the during the raid on bin Laden’s compound,
al Qaeda litter was in fact another species one finds few signs of original religious
altogether. Isis asked its followers to join thinking. But religious matters pervade
not because it was fighting U.S. troops— the conversations and correspondence
an orthodox bin Ladenist goal—but of isis leaders. The few non-isis scholars
because it had established the world’s of Islam who deign to read such texts
138 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
tend to come away appalled by the
conclusions but sometimes grudgingly
impressed by the erudition on display. Celebrating 34 Years of Independent Publishing
139
Graeme Wood
140 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
True Believers
had been found, rotting and picked over Indeed, Soufan’s policy prescriptions
by dogs, on the shore of the Tigris River are vague. He urges officials to under-
near Mosul, Iraq. The photographs on stand jihadist ideology better and iden-
the mobile phone of one of the fighters tify the currents of Salafism that have
revealed details of their training and fed it. This is strange advice given his
their personal lives. They were barely lack of interest in religion elsewhere in
men. Their beards were wispy, and their the book. Needless to say, understand-
recreations adolescent. They smiled and ing Salafism won’t help much if isis is
joked with friends. The religious side of secretly Baathist. Alas, it is not.
their existence was evident: they followed The suggestion that policymakers
their imam; they memorized Scripture; try to understand isis’ ideology better
they aspired to die in the path of God. is nonetheless a sound one. One of the
Jihadism has democratized and has key developments in the group’s rise is
ceased to be solely a project for elite the way it has leveraged local political
militants such as bin Laden and Zawahiri. conflicts—Sunni grievances against
One consequence for counterterrorism Shiite-dominated governments in Iraq
is that mapping organizational charts and and Syria—to create religious confron-
command structures is less critical than tation. The group is now in a shambles
understanding the stories of young men compared with two years ago—but it
such as the ones whose bodies were is strong compared with just four years
found near Mosul. Once, one could ago, when it could still be mistaken for
follow the words and deeds of bin Laden, a jv team. Its loss of territory has not
Zawahiri, Adel, and perhaps a dozen been accompanied by a proportional
others and obtain a highly accurate loss in its ability to inspire. The land
picture of global jihad. Now, the puppet may be gone, but the dream will remain,
masters matter less and the interior and there will continue to be dreamers
lives of the fighters matter more. That in dozens of countries, ready to die for
means studying how they understand the cause. There is still time to learn
and practice their religion, and how more about what the dream is and who
they develop camaraderie and purpose. is dreaming it.∂
There is a perverse joy in jihad, a
feeling of belonging and brotherhood,
of happiness and fulfillment. (Soufan
declares that in isis territory, “practi-
cally anything remotely enjoyable—in-
cluding a picnic in the park—is banned.”
In fact, isis features picnics in its
propaganda, and the citizens look like
they enjoy life in the caliphate; that is
the point of the propaganda.) If even a
counterterrorism expert of Soufan’s
caliber can omit this part of isis’ appeal,
the group will remain mysterious and
difficult to counter.
D
“ rain the swamp!” the U.S. movement has shaken Guatemala, where
Republican presidential candi- a un-backed commission has helped
date Donald Trump shouted at prosecutors bring charges against dozens
campaign rallies last year. The crowds of officials, including Otto Pérez Molina—
roared; he won. “Our political system who was the country’s president until
is corrupt!” the Democratic candidate 2015, when he resigned and was arrested
Bernie Sanders thundered at his own on corruption charges. Earlier this year,
rallies. His approval rating now stands South Korean President Park Guen-hye
at around 60 percent, dwarfing that of met the same fate.
any other national-level elected official. In countries as varied as Bulgaria,
Although many aspects of U.S. politics Honduras, Iraq, Lebanon, Malaysia,
may be confusing, Americans are Moldova, Romania, and South Africa,
clearly more agitated about corruption where governments haven’t been top-
than they have been in nearly a cen- pled, citizens have nonetheless shown
tury, in ways that much of the political remarkable collective energy in pro
mainstream does not quite grasp. The testing corruption. Taken together,
topic has never been central to either these disparate movements add up to
major party’s platform, and top offi- a low-grade worldwide insurrection.
cials tend to conflate what is legal with Elsewhere, taking the pulse of their
what is uncorrupt, speaking a com- people, governments such as China’s
pletely different language from that of have launched top-down initiatives
their constituents. targeting crooked officials.
Despite paying lip service to the
SARAH CHAYES is a Senior Fellow in the problem of corruption for decades,
Democracy and Rule of Law Program at the leaders in rich, developed countries
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
and the author of Thieves of State: Why have never treated it as more than a
Corruption Threatens Global Security. second-order foreign policy concern.
142 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Kleptocracy in America
After all, corruption is hard to measure The book offers authoritative per
and easy to brush away with arguments spectives on a variety of devices that
about differing cultural norms and the different regimes have applied to the
value of “facilitation payments” in greas- task of fighting corruption. But Rotberg’s
ing bureaucratic wheels. But lately, it analysis fails to spell out a reality that
has become harder to deny that corrup- his own most fundamental conclusion
tion lies at the root of many first-order suggests: corruption is not so much a
global problems, such as the spread of problem for governments as it is an ap-
violent religious extremism or the civil proach to government, one chosen by
strife and mass casualties witnessed in far too many rulers today. His sugges-
South Sudan and Syria—not to mention tions may be helpful to countries that
the refugee crises that have followed have already undergone some sharp
on their heels. Corruption also plays a transitions fueled by anticorruption
major role in the one truly global sentiment, such as Brazil, Burkina
existential threat: the destruction of Faso, Guatemala, South Korea, Tuni-
the environment. sia, and Ukraine. The Corruption Cure,
When speaking about the causal however, is less helpful when it comes
relationship between corruption and to hard-boiled kleptocracies, such as
such issues, I’m often asked questions Angola and Azerbaijan. Rotberg also
along these lines: “OK, corruption’s a downplays the role of developed countries
bad thing, but is there anything that in facilitating such regimes’ corrupt
can be done about it? Are there ex- practices. And he sidesteps the rather
amples of countries that have pulled pressing reality of developed coun-
themselves back from the brink?” The tries—including the United States—
political scientist Robert Rotberg has beginning their own unmistakable
surely fielded the same questions count- slides toward kleptocracy.
less times during his distinguished
career. He has now published a com- CLEANING HOUSE
prehensive and detailed response. To fight corruption, a good domestic legal
His book’s answer to the second framework is “at least a start,” Rotberg
question is important: some places writes, as long as it clearly defines illegal
have indeed dramatically reduced behavior and its consequences. In the
corruption. A few names on that list exemplary case of Singapore, anticorrup-
are familiar success stories, such as tion laws include “stiff monetary fines
Hong Kong and Singapore. Others— and five-year terms of imprisonment
Botswana, Georgia, Rwanda—might for convicted offenders.” Civil servants
surprise some readers. Rotberg exam- found guilty of corrupt acts can “lose
ines these cases, alongside those of their jobs, their benefits, and their pen
both poorer performers and longtime sions.” Apart from punishing acts of
paragons such as Denmark and Fin- corruption after the fact, Singaporean
land, in order to figure out what works. law also does what the U.S. Constitu-
His conclusions are scattered through- tion was at least partly designed to do:
out the book and then tabulated at the prevent corruption before it takes place.
end in a single 14-step program. (That was the purpose of the Emoluments
144 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Kleptocracy in America
analyzed their permitting and inspection tion commissions have been worse than
processes, and recommended improve- ineffective: they have been weaponized
ments. Later, it helped reform the stock to punish opponents of corrupt regimes.
exchange and the professional ethics In Malawi, for example, Rotberg reports
code for lawyers. that local observers “believed that the
But such commissions are no panacea, 2004–2006 anticorruption blitz was
either, Rotberg finds. In many countries, essentially an exercise in political persecu-
including several in Africa, anticorrup- tion,” since some of its main targets were
ranking members of the opposition party. way The Corruption Cure frames its
Transparency measures, such as eponymous problem. Rotberg, like so
making asset declarations mandatory many authors before him, depicts
for public officials, also appear on the corruption as an inchoate, corrosive
list of measures taken by several of force that seeps into governments that
Rotberg’s “most improved” countries. readers might presume are otherwise
So do the streamlining of bureaucratic sound. The metaphor he keeps reach-
procedures (to remove red tape that ing for is a medical one. Corruption is
might otherwise require a bribe to cut “an insidious cancer,” a “plague” that
through) and increasing the salaries of “infects,” “metastasizes,” and “cripples.”
civil servants (to reduce the material Cure the disease, as the title of the
need to demand or accept bribes). Norms book suggests, and the healed body
and standards promoted by international politic can go out and play.
institutions can sometimes help, too. In But where does the sickness come
Georgia, Macedonia, and Montenegro, from? In explaining how such a mal-
eligibility requirements for eu member- ady might take hold, Rotberg resists
ship, which all three seek, have catalyzed the temptation to moralize, venturing
significant reforms. (Montenegro’s efforts that corrupt officials may be behaving
so far, however, seem aimed more at rationally. “By adopting a conscious
checking boxes than at genuinely trans- strategy of self-enrichment through
forming the way authorities behave.) corrupt behavior, they merely . . . act
The list of effective measures also within the often zero-sum expecta-
contains several drastic steps, including tions of their class and their condition,”
staff purges at agencies widely seen as he writes.
thoroughly corrupt. Rotberg reports Yet that portrait of widespread but
that when Mikheil Saakashvili came to uncoordinated opportunism miscasts
power in Georgia in 2008, “the new the nature of contemporary corruption.
reformers discharged the entire staff of Rather than a weakness or a disorder, it
the ministry of education and recruited is the effective functioning of systems
new employees by competitive exami- designed to enrich the powerful. Rotberg
nation”; they also sacked 15,000 police gestures at this fundamental reality
officers. In President Paul Kagame’s toward the end of the book, when he
Rwanda, it was “all 503 members of the paraphrases an assessment made by
Rwandan judiciary, from top to bottom,” Guatemala’s un-backed anticorruption
who got the ax, in 2004. And almost commission: That country’s ruling
immediately after her 2006 election as Patriotic Party “was more a criminal
Liberia’s president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf gang than a political party. Its role was
fired “virtually all” the civil servants who to ‘rob the state,’” Rotberg writes. In
had worked in the prior regime’s Minis- Guatemala, elites “constituted a criminal
try of Finance. organization—a kleptocratic conspiracy
capable of capturing a national revenue
THE MAFIA STATE stream, a mafia running a state.”
The drastic nature of such measures This is what corruption looks in at
reveals a fundamental weakness in the least 60 countries where I have researched
146 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
the problem: the deliberate operating
system of sophisticated networks bent
on self-enrichment and remarkably
successful at achieving it. For officials in
these places, corrupt acts often do not
represent rational responses to a permis-
sive environment, as Rotberg would
have it; rather, they are a professional
requirement. If you are a police officer The Internship
in Afghanistan or Nigeria, a customs Program
agent in Uzbekistan, or a top adminis-
The Council on Foreign Relations is seek-
trator in the Honduran environment ing talented individuals who are consider-
ministry, you owe your superiors certain ing a career in international relations.
things: a cut of your harvest of small Interns are recruited year-round on a semester
bribes, certainly, and perhaps some duly basis to work in both the New York City and
signed and stamped paperwork green- Washington, D.C., offices. An intern’s duties
generally consist of administrative work,
lighting activities that violate regulations. editing and writing, and event coordination.
Those who do not perform these allot-
The Council considers both undergraduate
ted tasks are demoted or sidelined—if and graduate students with majors in Interna-
they’re lucky. Sometimes they are shot. tional Relations, Political Science, Economics,
It’s the old Mafia choice: plata o plomo, or a related field for its internship program.
“silver or lead.” Take the money or take A regional specialization and language skills
a bullet. may also be required for some positions. In
addition to meeting the intellectual require-
These networks come in different
ments, applicants should have excellent
forms in different countries. They can skills in administration, writing, and re-
be highly structured or fairly diffuse, search, and a command of word processing,
with varying degrees of internal rivalry spreadsheet applications, and the Internet.
and disrupting daily life where they To apply for an internship, please send a
hold sway. Depending on the sources résumé and cover letter including the se-
mester, days, and times available to work
available to them, they capture differ- to the I nternship Coordinator in the Hu-
ent revenue streams, including luxury man Resources Office at the address listed
tourism, oil sales, or high-end agricul- below. Please refer to the Council’s Web
tural exports, such as succulent dates site for specific opportunities. The Coun-
cil is an equal opportunity employer.
from Tunisia, green beans from Kenya,
or the opium whose harvest absorbs
much of the labor force in southern
Afghanistan each spring. The networks
weave together categories that people
in developed countries tend to keep
Council on Foreign Relations
separate in their minds: public sector Human Resources Office
and private sector, black markets and 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065
tel: 212.434 . 9400 fax: 212.434 . 9893
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humanresources@cfr.org http://www.cfr.org
Consider the roles played by the
Karzai family in post-9/11 Afghanistan,
147
Sarah Chayes
148 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Kleptocracy in America
150 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Return to Table of Contents
W
orld War II devastated the Back when Olson was writing, few
economic infrastructures economists cared about economic inequal-
of Germany and Japan. It ity in advanced countries; unemployment
flattened their factories, reduced their and sluggish investment were the problems
rail yards to rubble, and eviscerated of the day. To the extent that experts
their harbors. But in the decades that did focus on inequality within coun-
followed, something puzzling happened: tries, they did so with respect to the late
the economies of Germany and Japan industrializers, where migration from
grew faster than those of the United poor villages to richer cities was accen-
States, the United Kingdom, and France. tuating income disparities. Even there,
Why did the vanquished outperform however, inequality was considered a
the victorious? temporary side effect of development;
In his 1982 book, The Rise and Decline the economist Simon Kuznets argued
of Nations, the economist Mancur Olson that it dissipated with modernization.
answered that question by arguing that Had Olson considered inequality, he
rather than handicapping the economies might have noticed that World War II
of the Axis powers, catastrophic defeat had two other curious economic conse-
actually benefited them, by opening up quences. First, the devastation reduced
space for competition and innovation. inequality—not just in the defeated
In both Germany and Japan, he observed, countries but also in the victorious coun
the war destroyed special-interest groups, tries, and even in neutral ones. Second,
including economic cartels, labor unions, these reductions proved temporary.
and professional associations. Gone Around the 1970s, developed economies
started becoming less and less equal,
TIMUR KURAN is Professor of Economics and defying Kuznets’ celebrated hypothesis.
Political Science and Gorter Family Professor of
Islamic Studies at Duke University. Follow him Such puzzles lie at the heart of The
on Twitter @timurkuran. Great Leveler, an impressive new book
lavish burials; and evidence of entrenched complete authority over war booty and
hierarchies, such as temples. He estimates decided how to divide it among their
inequality in the Roman Empire by soldiers, their officers and aides who had
looking at the assets of top officials been drawn from the elite class, the state
and influential families, as reported in treasury, and themselves.”
censuses. He measures Ottoman inequal- In the modern world, too, authoritar-
ity by turning to records of estate settle- ian states with ruling cliques preserve
ments and official expropriations. For political power and acquire immense
premodern China, fluctuations over wealth through violence; consider China,
time in the number of tomb epitaphs, Egypt, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Where
which only the rich could afford, serve these differ from premodern states is
as a proxy for the shifting concentration that they share power with giant private
of wealth. Specialists in particular eras companies. Premodern China had no
and regions will undoubtedly quibble equivalent of the e-commerce company
with some of Scheidel’s assumptions, Alibaba, nor did premodern Egypt have
inferences, and computations. But no anything like the Bank of Alexandria, one
reasonable reader will fail to be convinced of the country’s largest financial institu-
that inequality has waxed and waned tions. The owners of such companies
across time and space. include billionaires who have become
Scheidel also seeks to explain what wealthy without relying on violence (or at
causes inequality. Thomas Piketty, in least without relying on violence directly,
his best-selling Capital in the Twenty-first since they may support it indirectly by
Century, answered the question by arguing paying taxes to repressive states). But
that the rate of return on investment Scheidel downplays the role that private
generally exceeds the rate of economic companies play in creating and perpetu-
growth, causing people with capital to ating inequality in modern autocracies,
get even wealthier than everyone else. an error that leads him to make unduly
Scheidel accepts this mechanism but pessimistic forecasts about the future.
adds others. The most basic one involves Giant corporations also play massive
predation. Until recently, the only way roles in advanced democracies. In these
to become fabulously rich was to prey countries, the military and the police
on the fruits of others’ labor. Cunning are constrained by various institutions,
people grabbed power and then accumu- and politicians must maintain popular
lated wealth through taxation, expropria- support to stay in power. But it is one
tion, enslavement, and conquest. They thing for citizens to have the right to
also monopolized lucrative economic boot out a corrupt administration and
sectors, largely for the benefit of them- quite another for them to exercise that
selves and their relatives and cronies. right. The U.S. tax system has plenty
Exercising all this power—and holding of loopholes that benefit the wealthiest
on to it—required maintaining a mili- 0.1 percent of Americans, but the other
tary capable of overpowering challeng- 99.9 percent, through their choices at
ers, which itself served as an instrument the ballot box, have effectively allowed
of further predation. In ancient Rome, those privileges to persist. Recognizing
Scheidel writes, “commanders enjoyed this oddity, Scheidel suggests that voters
154 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
What Kills Inequality
act against their own interests because through reconstruction. In the United
of the power of elites. And so inequality States, the Supreme Court put an end
keeps rising—until, that is, a shock sends to whites-only party primaries in 1944,
it back down. no doubt partly because public opinion
had turned against excluding African
INEQUALITY, INTERRUPTED Americans who had shared in the wartime
World War II reduced inequality mainly sacrifices. France, Italy, and Japan all
by obliterating assets that belonged adopted universal suffrage between 1944
disproportionately to the rich, such as and 1946. The war effort also stimulated
factories and offices. As Scheidel notes, the formation of unions, which kept
a quarter of Japan’s physical capital was rising inequality at bay by giving work-
wiped out during the war, including ers collective-bargaining power and by
four-fifths of all its merchant ships and pressuring governments to adopt pro-
up to one-half of its chemical plants. Even labor policies. Mass mobilization for
though France was on the winning side, the purpose of mass violence thus con-
two-thirds of its capital stock evaporated. tributed to mass economic leveling.
The war also depressed financial assets By this logic, modern wars fought
such as stocks and bonds, and it deval- by professional soldiers are unlikely to
ued surviving rental properties almost have a similar effect. Consider the wars
everywhere. In victorious and defeated in Afghanistan and Iraq: although some
countries alike, the rich lost a greater U.S. veterans of these conflicts have
share of their wealth than did the rest returned embittered, they constitute
of the population. too small a constituency to command
But it wasn’t just destruction that sustained attention, and few Americans
lowered inequality; progressive taxes, feel compelled to support substantial
which governments levied to fund the transfers of wealth to citizens who
war effort, also helped. In the United enlisted voluntarily.
States, for example, the top income tax Revolutions, The Great Leveler
rate reached 94 percent during the war, explains, act a lot like wars when it
and the top estate tax rate climbed to comes to redistribution: they equalize
77 percent. As a result, the net income access to resources only insofar as they
of the top one percent of earners fell by involve violence. The communist revo
one-quarter, even as low-end wages rose. lutions that rocked Russia in 1917 and
The mass societal mobilizations that China beginning in 1945 were extremely
the war required also played a critical bloody events. In just a few years, the
role. Nearly one-quarter of Japan’s male revolutionaries eliminated private owner-
population served in the military during ship of land, nationalized nearly all
the conflict, and although the share was businesses, and destroyed the elite through
lower in most other countries, nowhere mass deportations, imprisonment, and
was the number of enlisted men small executions. All of this substantially
by historical standards. During and after leveled wealth. The same cannot be
the war, veterans and their families formed said for relatively bloodless revolutions,
preorganized constituencies that felt which had much smaller economic effects.
entitled to share in the wealth created For example, although the Mexican
Revolution, which began in 1910, did who pursue egalitarian policies. Scheidel
lead to the reallocation of some land, doesn’t go into much detail about why,
the process was spread across six decades, but the problem is largely one of coor
and the parcels handed out were gener- dination. According to the theory of
ally poor in quality. The revolutionaries collective action (popularized by Olson,
were too nonviolent to destroy the elite, as it happens), the larger a coalition, the
who regrouped quickly and managed to harder it is to organize. This means that
water down the ensuing reforms. In the because of numbers alone, the bottom
absence of mass violence concentrated 50 percent will always have a harder
in a short period of time, Scheidel infers, time mobilizing around a common goal
it is impossible to meaningfully redis- than will the top 0.1 percent. It’s not
tribute wealth or substantially equalize just that the incentives to free-ride are
economic opportunity. larger in big groups; in addition, prior
Indeed, Scheidel doubts whether ities within them can be more diverse.
gradual, consensual, and peaceful paths Most Americans agree on the need for
to greater equality exist. One might education reform, but that majority
imagine that education lowers inequality disagrees hopelessly on the details.
by giving the poor a chance to rise above Yet another obstacle to reform lies
their parents’ station. But Scheidel points in efforts to discourage the bottom
out that in postindustrial economies, 50 percent from mobilizing. Across the
elite schools disproportionately serve world, elites have promoted ideologies
the children of privileged parents, and that focus the poor’s attention on non
assortative mating—the tendency of economic flash points, such as culture,
people to marry their socioeconomic ethnicity, and religion. They also spread
peers—magnifies the resulting inequalities. conspiracy theories that attribute chronic
Likewise, one might expect financial inequalities to evildoers, real or imagined.
crises to act as another brake on wealth Today’s populist politicians—both the
concentration, since they usually hit the right-wing and the left-wing varieties—
superrich the hardest. But such crises demonize particular groups, thereby
tend to have only a temporary effect deflecting attention from genuine sources
on elite wealth. The 1929 stock market of economic inequality. For U.S.
crash, which permanently destroyed President Donald Trump and France’s
countless huge fortunes, was the Marine Le Pen, it is immigrants; for U.S.
exception to the rule. The crisis of Senator Bernie Sanders and France’s
2008—which most wealthy investors Jean-Luc Mélenchon, it is corporations.
recovered from in just a few years— Even elites who disavow populism deflect
was much more typical. attention from the real problems. Many
Scheidel argues that the democratic American academics, for example, cham-
process cannot be counted on to reduce pion affirmative action, which tends to
inequality, either. Even in countries with favor the wealthiest minorities and makes
free and fair elections, the formation no real dent in inequality. Given all
of bottom-up coalitions that support these barriers to reform, Scheidel’s
redistribution is rare. Indeed, the poor pessimism can seem well founded.
generally fail to coalesce around leaders
156 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
What Kills Inequality
158 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Return to Table of Contents
A
round the world, the transition government subsidies, solar and wind
from fossil fuels to renewable power provided only 1.8 percent of global
sources of energy appears to energy. To complete the transition,
finally be under way. Renewables were renewables would need to both supply
first promoted in the 1960s and 1970s as the world’s electricity and replace fossil
a way for people to get closer to nature and fuels used in transportation and in the
for countries to achieve energy indepen- manufacture of common materials, such
dence. Only recently have people come as cement, plastics, and ammonia. Smil
to see adopting them as crucial to pre- expresses his exasperation at “techno-
venting global warming. And only in the optimists [who] see a future of unlimited
last ten years has the proliferation of energy, whether from superefficient
solar and wind farms persuaded much [photovoltaic] cells or from nuclear fusion.”
of the public that such a transition is Such a vision, he says, is “nothing but
possible. In December 2014, 78 percent a fairy tale.” On that point, the public
of respondents to a large global survey is closer to Smil than to the techno-
by Ipsos agreed with the statement “In optimists. In the same 2014 Ipsos survey,
the future, renewable energy sources 66 percent agreed that “renewable sources
will be able to fully replace fossil fuels.” of energy such as hydroelectricity, solar
Toward the end of his sweeping new and wind cannot on [their] own meet
history, Energy and Civilization, Vaclav the rising global demand for energy.”
Smil appears to agree. But Smil, one of Smil is right about the slow pace of
the world’s foremost experts on energy, energy transitions, but his skepticism
stresses that any transition to renewables of renewables does not go far enough.
would take far longer than its most ardent Solar and wind power are unlikely to
ever provide more than a small fraction
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER is President
and Founder of Environmental Progress. Follow of the world’s energy; they are too diffuse
him on Twitter @ShellenbergerMD. and unreliable. Nor can hydroelectric
power, which currently produces just complex. “To generalize, across millennia,
2.4 percent of global energy, replace fossil that higher socioeconomic complexity
fuels, as most of the world’s rivers have requires higher and more efficiently used
already been dammed. Yet if humanity inputs of energy is to describe indisput-
is to avoid ecological catastrophe, it must able reality,” Smil writes. That striving
find a way to wean itself off fossil fuels. for more energy began with prehuman
Smil suggests that the world should foragers, who craved energy-dense foods,
achieve this by sharply cutting energy such as oils and animal fats, which contain
consumption per capita, something two to five times as much energy by mass
environmental groups have advocated as protein and ten to 40 times as much
for the last 40 years. But over that period, as fruits and vegetables. The harness-
per capita energy consumption has risen ing of fire let prehumans consume more
in developed and developing countries animal fats and proteins, allowing their
alike. And for good reason: greater energy intestinal tracts to shrink (since cooked
consumption allows vastly improved food requires less digestion) and their
standards of living. Attempting to reverse brains to grow. The final outcome was
that trend would guarantee misery for the human brain, which demands twice
much of the world. The solution lies as much energy by mass as the brains
in nuclear power, which Smil addresses of other primates.
only briefly and inadequately. Nuclear Around 10,000 years ago, humans
power is far more efficient than renew- gradually started to shift from foraging
able sources of energy and far safer and for food to farming and began to tap
cleaner than burning fossil fuels. As a new forms of energy, including domes-
result, it offers the only way for humanity ticated animals for plowing, wind for
to both significantly reduce its environ- powering mills, and human and animal
mental impact and lift every country waste for fertilization. Permanent farms
out of poverty. allowed human societies to grow in size
and power. “Even an ordinary staple
ENERGY’S HISTORY grain harvest could feed, on the average,
Few scholars dominate a field of inter- ten times as many people as the same
disciplinary study the way Smil does area used by shifting farmers,” Smil notes.
that of energy, on which he has published Yet those societies’ individual members
over 20 books. Energy and Civilization saw little benefit. Smil records the remark-
synthesizes his canon, offering a broad able fact that “there is no clear upward
picture of the evolution of Homo sapiens, trend in per capita food supply across
the rise of agriculture, and the very recent the millennia of traditional farming.”
emergence of a high-energy industrial A Chinese peasant ate about as much
civilization. in 1950, before the arrival of synthetic
The core of Smil’s argument is that fertilizers and pumped irrigation, as his
the history of human evolution and fourth-century ancestor.
development is one of converting ever- That’s in part because for most of
larger amounts of energy into ever human history, societies increased their
more wealth and power, allowing food and energy production only when
human societies to grow ever more they were forced to, by factors such as
160 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Nuclear Option
leap in energy consumption than the industrial one came at a high human and
one involved in moving from foraging environmental cost but also delivered
to agriculture. The shift was made possible significant progress. As terrible as indus
by a rapid increase in coal mining. Coal trial capitalism, particularly in its early
offered roughly twice as much energy forms, could be for factory workers, it was
by weight as wood and by the mid- to usually an improvement over what came
late nineteenth century provided half before it, as Smil documents in a series
of all the fuel consumed in Europe and of delightful boxes peppered throughout
the United States. Despite the obvious the book that feature obscure old texts
benefits, the transition from biomass to reminding the reader of the brutality of
daily life before and during the Industrial Many advocates of renewables argue
Revolution. “Ye gods, what a set of men that hydroelectric power can solve this
I saw!” wrote the second-century Roman problem. They suggest that upgraded
scholar Lucius Apuleius, describing Roman dams could supplement the unreliable
mill slaves. “Their skins were seamed all electricity from solar and wind power,
over with marks of the lash, their scarred yet there are not nearly enough dams in
backs were shaded rather than covered the world to hold the necessary energy.
with tattered frocks.” In a study published in June in the
The shift from wood to coal was, Proceedings of the National Academy of
especially in its early years, painful for Sciences, a team of energy and climate
many workers. In another box, Smil researchers found that the most promi-
quotes from “An Inquiry Into the Condi- nent proposal for shifting the United
tion of the Women Who Carry Coals States to completely renewable energy
Under Ground in Scotland,” published in had inflated estimates of U.S. hydro-
1812. “The mother sets out first, carrying electric capacity tenfold. Without the
a lighted candle in her teeth; the girls exaggerated numbers, there is no renew-
follow . . . with weary steps and slow, able energy source to replace the power
ascend the stairs, halting occasionally to generated from the sun and the wind
draw breath. . . . It is no uncommon thing during the long stretches of time when
to see them . . . weeping most bitterly, the sun doesn’t shine and the wind
from the excessive severity of labor.” doesn’t blow.
Yet as cruel as coal mining could be, over Moreover, all three previous energy
time it helped liberate humans from transitions resulted in what’s known as
agricultural drudgery, increase productiv- “dematerialization”: the new fuels pro-
ity, raise living standards, and, at least duced the same amount of energy using
in developed nations, reduce reliance on far fewer natural resources. By contrast,
wood for fuel, allowing reforestation and a transition from fossil fuels to solar or
the return of wildlife. wind power, biomass, or hydroelectricity
would require rematerialization—the use
WHY RENEWABLES CAN’T WORK of more natural resources—since sunlight,
Smil argues that moving to renewable wind, organic matter, and water are all
sources of energy will likely be a slow far less energy dense than oil and gas.
process, but he never addresses just how Basic physics predicts that that remate-
different such a move would be from rialization would significantly increase
past energy transitions. Almost every the environmental effects of generating
time a society has replaced one source energy. Although these would not be
of energy with another, it has shifted to uniformly negative, many would harm
a more reliable and energy-dense fuel. the environment. Defunct solar panels,
(The one exception, natural gas, has a for example, are often shipped to poor
larger volume than coal, but extracting countries without adequate environmental
it does far less environmental damage.) safeguards, where the toxic heavy metals
Replacing fossil fuels with renewables they contain can leach into water supplies.
would mean moving to fuels that are Given that Smil has done more than
less reliable and more diffuse. anyone to explain the relationship between
162 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Nuclear Option
of Pisa, whereas the solar waste would economically viable, engineers will need
reach over 52,000 feet, nearly twice the to make a “breakthrough” in reducing the
height of Mount Everest. construction times of new nuclear power
Nuclear power is also by far the safest plants. But a comprehensive study of
way to generate reliable energy, accord- nuclear power plant construction costs
ing to every major study published over published in Energy Policy last year found
the last 50 years. Even the worst nuclear that water-cooled nuclear reactors (which
accidents result in far fewer deaths than are far less expensive than non-water-
the normal operation of fossil fuel power cooled designs) are already cheap enough
plants. That’s because of the toxic smoke to quickly replace fossil fuel power plants.
released by burning fossil fuels. Accord- And where nuclear power plant builders
ing to the World Health Organization, have shortened construction times, such
the resulting air pollution from this and as in France in the 1980s and South Korea
burning biomass kills seven million people more recently, they did so not by switch-
every year. Nuclear power plants, by ing to different designs—a sure-fire
contrast, produce significant pollutants recipe for delays—but rather by having
only when radioactive particles escape as the same experienced managers and
a result of accidents. These are exceed- workers build the same kinds of units
ingly rare, and when they do occur, so on each site.
little radioactive material is released that Despite his skepticism, Smil does
vanishingly few people are exposed to leave the door open to nuclear power
it. In 1986, an unshielded reactor burned playing a role in the future. But he over
for over a week at the Chernobyl nuclear looks the fact that an entirely nuclear-
power plant, the world’s worst-ever nuclear powered society would be far preferable
accident. Yet the who has estimated that to a partially nuclear-powered one, as
among the emergency workers at the it would have no need for fossil fuels or
scene, only about 50 died, and over the large, wasteful, and unreliable solar or
course of 75 years after the disaster, the wind farms.
radiation will cause only around 4,000 In the 1960s and 1970s, some of
premature deaths. nuclear power’s opponents regarded
The real threat to the public comes the technology as dangerous because
from irrational fears of nuclear power. it would provide humanity with too
The Fukushima nuclear accident in much energy. In 1975, the biologist
Japan in 2011, for example, did not Paul Ehrlich wrote in the Federation
lead to any deaths from direct radiation of American Scientists’ Public Interest
exposure. Yet public fear led Japan’s Report that “giving society cheap, abun-
prime minister to intervene unneces- dant energy at this point would be the
sarily, prompting a panicked and need- moral equivalent of giving an idiot child
lessly large evacuation, which led to a machine gun.” “It’d be little short of
the deaths of over 1,500 people. disastrous for us to discover a source
To his credit, Smil acknowledges of cheap, clean, and abundant energy
nuclear power’s environmental and because of what we would do with it,”
health benefits, but he goes on to the energy guru Amory Lovins told
suggest that for nuclear power to be Mother Earth News in 1977.
164 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The Nuclear Option
S
ince the start of 2015, jihadists have recent years. He primarily blames Islamist
killed over 300 people and injured fundamentalism for the terrorist threat
thousands more in a string of grue- but sees it as just one part of a larger
some attacks in European cities. The rise in identity politics. In his view, this
assailants have driven trucks and vans broader trend presents a profound threat
into crowds, detonated suicide bombs, to French society, as it is incompatible
carried out mass shootings, and used with traditional French ideals. For this
knives and axes to attack, even behead, reason, the book is not really about jihad
their victims. By and large, the attackers “in the West,” despite its English sub-
have been locals, but they have often title. (The title of the French version
received ideological support and practi- of the book translates as The Genesis of
cal instructions from members of the French Jihad.) Rather, Kepel offers an
Islamic State (also known as isis). impassioned indictment of religious and
In his new book, the French politi- nationalist extremism in French politics,
cal scientist Gilles Kepel argues that which, despite the recent election of
among European countries, France has the centrist Emmanuel Macron to the
experienced the worst of this new wave presidency, remains deeply divided.
of terrorism. Although the phenomenon
of Islamist extremism “is not exclusively THE RISE OF IDENTITY
French,” he writes, “the French case is Kepel identifies two main causes of the
stronger and deeper” than the cases of jihadist surge in France: the Internet
other countries. Some 6,000 people, and the emergence of “ethnoreligous
around 1,800 of them from France, have fissures in the social fabric,” which he
traveled from western Europe to join believes are breaking the French Republic
apart. “The departure [of young French-
JYTTE KLAUSEN is Lawrence A. Wien men] for Syria to engage in jihad and
Professor of International Cooperation at undergo martyrdom there is the natural
Brandeis University and a Local Affiliate at the
Center for European Studies at Harvard and concrete sequel of their virtual
University. indoctrination,” he writes, although he
166 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Terror in the Terroir
threat posed by identity politics to the Olivier Roy. In an essay titled “Jihadism
French Republic and for casting French Is a Generational and Nihilistic Revolt,”
Muslims as victims of Islamophobia. He published in Le Monde just two weeks
calls this tendency “Islamo-gauchism” after a jihadist group had killed 130 people
(Islamic leftism). Kepel also decries the in a series of suicide bombings and
appearance of new Muslim political parties mass shootings in Paris that November,
that aim to mobilize Muslims to vote and Roy argued that most experts, including
stand for office, which he lumps together Kepel, had misunderstood the jihadist
with Islamists, Salafists, and jihadists movement. France’s problem with angry
under the label of “communitarianism.” young Muslims had nothing to do with
American readers may be surprised Salafi fundamentalism, Roy maintained.
to see bloc votes regarded as suspicious The new generation of extremists wasn’t
and even illegitimate, but many French genuinely interested in religion; its
intellectuals are deeply distrustful of members knew hardly anything about
communitarianism, the catch-all label Islam. In Roy’s words, France was deal-
for any acknowledgment of religious ing “not with the radicalization of Islam
or ethnoracial identity as a source of but with the Islamization of radicalism.”
civic engagement. Groups of young men from poor urban
Macron’s election seems to run communities were turning to Islamist
counter to Kepel’s predictions about extremism in a nihilistic rejection of
the imminent collapse of the republic. society. In the process, they were abandon-
In his campaign, Macron emphasized ing their parents and the wider Muslim
universalism and secularism and affirmed community. “They have no place in
his allegiance to the eu and to tradi- the Muslim societies that they claim
tional French republican values—and to defend,” Roy wrote.
won decisively. (Kepel is a committed The French edition of Terror in France
supporter of Macron.) But there was appeared shortly after Roy’s essay. As
enough ambiguity in the election results Kepel made the rounds on French talk
to support Kepel’s view that all is not shows promoting his book, he called Roy
well. In the second round, 20.7 million an “ignoramus” and derided him for not
voters turned out for Macron, but 10.6 speaking Arabic. (Kepel trained as an
million voted for Le Pen, and 12 million Arabist and wrote his Ph.D. dissertation
eligible voters stayed home or submitted on Islamist movements in Egypt.) Then
blank ballots, the highest abstention Kepel published a critique of Roy in
rate in decades. Libération, a left-leaning newspaper.
Making a pun on Roy’s last name, which
RELIGIOUS WARS is pronounced like the French word for
Kepel’s views have made him a deeply “king,” roi, the headline read, “Le roi est
controversial figure in France. (They nu” (The King Is Naked). Roy responded
have also earned him jihadist death in L’Obs, a weekly magazine, by accusing
threats, leading the government to provide Kepel of seeking fame and money at the
him with 24-hour security.) In 2015, a cost of his intellectual integrity.
public fracas broke out between Kepel Kepel and Roy’s disagreement
and another French political scientist, resembles the long-standing debate
168 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Terror in the Terroir
Under siege: a victim of the Bataclan theater attack, Paris, November 2015
among scholars of migration over both decry the dislocation and stagnation
whether push factors, such as wars and caused by globalization and blame succes-
natural disasters, or pull factors, such sive French governments for failing to
as economic opportunities, do more to address these problems. Where they part
explain why, when, and how people ways is over the role of religion, which
move. Roy focuses on the push toward Roy mostly dismisses and Kepel regards
extremism, which he believes comes from as far more significant than economics.
social exclusion and the discrimination One significant pull factor is social
experienced by second-generation immi- pressure. To become a jihadist, you have
grants. Kepel, on the other hand, sees to already know one. Members of a group
growing extremism as the result of the tend to see themselves as similar to other
pull exercised by Salafi preachers. members and are therefore predisposed
Despite their differences, Kepel and to value the same ideas and behaviors.
Roy agree that push factors matter. Most jihadists, however, do not emerge
They both point to the failure of the from the public housing projects in the
PHILI PPE WOJAZE R / REUTE RS
small town of Lunel, near the Mediter- with violent tendencies and a desire
ranean coast, which has fallen prey to for perverse heroism who are unfamil-
competing forms of extremism. In 2014, iar with mainstream Islamic teachings.
it sent more young men to fight for isis In their reading, the Prophet was saying
per capita than any other town in France; that a Muslim who picks up a gun to
that same year, the National Front fight for Allah is guaranteed a fast track
became the town’s largest political party. to heaven.
As Kepel acknowledges, French Kepel and Roy also disagree over
jihadists also do not usually come from how the French government should
Salafi homes. The Kouachi brothers, deal with extremism within religion.
who shot and killed 12 people at the Kepel argues that it should tackle the
offices of the satirical newspaper Charlie problem directly by enforcing the prin-
Hebdo in January 2015, were French ciple of laïcité, which banishes most
citizens of Algerian descent who grew religion from the public sphere. Accord-
up as Catholics. Their friend Amedy ing to Roy, rather than suppressing
Coulibaly, who in the days after the Islam in public, the government should
Charlie Hebdo attack killed five people make more room for mainstream Islam
in a string of shootings in Paris, was a to express itself. Doing so, he thinks,
French citizen of Malian descent who would restrict the space available to
came from a secular background. These jihadist recruiters. After the London
men encountered jihadist networks transport bombings in 2005, the British
not in the banlieues but in the prisons government tried that approach, paying
of the French state. imams and theologians opposed to
Although young men clearly reach jihadist violence to tour mosques and
jihadism in complex ways, Roy goes provide “faith-inspired guidance” to
too far by dismissing the role of religion young Muslims. The problem with that
altogether. He suggests that because experiment was that when some of the
many terrorists use drugs, watch por- government-funded preachers proved
nography, and eat non-halal food, they less moderate than expected, the British
are not truly Muslim. But smoking government found itself in the unten-
marijuana and breaking dietary restric- able situation of having to express
tions do not matter to someone about opinions on what was good Islam and
to commit the ultimate sacrifice for what was bad.
Allah. Isis, for example, hands out
amphetamines to its fighters to im- FIGHTING BACK
prove their stamina. Jihadists justify As the British government’s struggles
their religious transgressions by citing with jihadism have shown, the problem
a saying of the Prophet Muhammad is not confined to France. In fact, both
that however much a Muslim prays, if Kepel and Roy exaggerate the extent
he acquiesces to the infidels, he won’t to which jihadism in France is specific
get to paradise. Most Muslims see to that country. Jihadists everywhere
the adage as an injunction to do good tell the same stories about how and why
deeds. But it serves as a convenient they joined this or that jihadist group
way for recruiters to convert people abroad and returned to “do something”
170 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
back home. Isis’ and al Qaeda’s propa-
ganda outlets pump out the same narra-
tive, with some localized content, to all
potential Western recruits. It seems to
work well enough everywhere.
There is also scant evidence that
France is particularly vulnerable to
jihadism. In March, a report prepared
by a committee created by the French
Senate to investigate radicalization in
the country listed 17,393 people who The Fellowship Program
had been classified by the French gov-
ernment as possible terrorist threats.
In the United Kingdom, which has The Council on Foreign Relations is seeking
applicants for the following 2018–2019
roughly the same population as France,
fellowship programs:
the government said in May that it had
identified some 23,000 jihadist extrem- October 31, 2017, deadline:
ists living in the country as potential
terrorist attackers. International Affairs Fellowship (IAF)
Moreover, many of the perpetrators IAF for Tenured International Relations
of recent terrorist attacks in France came Scholars
from abroad. The November 2015 attacks IAF in Canada
in Paris were carried out by teams of
assailants who had driven down from IAF in Japan
Brussels. The network included some IAF in International Economics
Frenchmen who had relocated to Brussels,
French-speaking Belgians, and two December 15, 2017, deadline:
Iraqis who had apparently never traveled Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship
to France before. Dutch, German, and
Swedish militants were involved on the The fellowship program offers unique oppor-
edges of the network, as well. None of tunities for mid- to senior career professionals
the men was the product of specifically focusing on international relations and affords
French dysfunctions. fellows the opportunity to broaden their
perspective of foreign affairs and to pursue
This means that there are practical
work in a policymaking setting or an
steps all European governments can
academic environment.
take to reduce the likelihood of future
attacks. Most important, they must fix Program details, eligibility requirements, and
the methods by which security agencies application deadlines can be found online at
evaluate and monitor people and groups www.cfr.org/fellowships.
they consider dangerous. Thousands
Council on Foreign Relations
of people have embraced the idea of Fellowship Affairs
martyrdom, most of them young men. tel 212.434.9740
Not all will carry out a terrorist attack, fellowships@cfr.org
so governments need to distinguish
171
Jytte Klausen
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A
t a moment when so many schools of international relations theory
democracies appear belea- have used the term. Realists employ
guered, Rice’s book presents it in describing the long sequence of
an inspiring dose of hope. The stories order-building projects that the Euro-
that the former U.S. secretary of state pean great powers pursued in their
tells all advance a central message: the bids for mastery. Marxists use it to
desire for political rights and self-rule characterize the way leading capitalist
is deeply rooted in the human condi- societies project their power. For
tion. But the book’s focus is political liberals, “hegemony” often refers to
struggle and the contingent character the distinctively open and rule-based
of democratic movements: history, Rice international orders established by the
makes clear, does not end. She weaves United Kingdom in the nineteenth
her own biography into the book, century and the United States in the
reflecting on her experiences as an twentieth. Across these intellectual
African American woman in institu- traditions, the impulse is similar: to
tions dominated by white men and as describe a kind of preeminence that
a diplomat with a front-row seat to differs from empire by resting as
post-Soviet political transitions in much on consent and influence as on
eastern Europe and to Russia’s failed force and outright domination. An-
experiment with democratization. derson, however, dismisses the argu-
She also details fights for democratic ments of theorists (including this
change in the Middle East and in reviewer) who have emphasized the
Colombia, Kenya, Poland, and Ukraine. “liberal hegemonic” features of the
Elections are not enough, she demon- Western postwar order as mere window-
strates: aspiring democracies need dressing for American empire. But he
bedrock political institutions that offers his views about world order
create opportunities for people to only indirectly, from the relative
exercise power. Authoritarian regimes safety afforded by explaining other
are gaining ground today, but Rice is people’s ideas without clearly articu-
not convinced they are as strong as lating his own.
The Emergence of Globalism: Visions of democracy over the last two centuries as
World Order in Britain and the United a series of “waves”: periodic moments
States, 1939–1950 when many countries jumped more or
BY OR ROSENBOIM. Princeton less simultaneously on the democratic
University Press, 2017, 352 pp. bandwagon. In this landmark study,
Gunitsky goes further and illuminates
During and after World War II, intellec- the deep connections between global
tuals and scholars in the United Kingdom shifts in power and waves of domestic
and the United States engaged in a regime change. His book reveals how a
vigorous and wide-ranging debate about series of geopolitical disruptions in the
the future of world order as the global twentieth century created “hegemonic
calamity forced the Western world to shocks” that triggered movements across
grapple with elemental questions about the globe toward or away from democ-
the character of modernity and the nature racy. In the aftermath of the two world
of democracy. This impressive book wars and after the end of the Cold War,
provides the best intellectual history yet the United States and western Euro-
of that tumultuous era. Some theorists, pean states became hegemonic powers
such as Raymond Aron, David Mitrany, and catalyzed independence movements
and E. H. Carr, reimagined the role of and democratic transitions. The rise of
the state. Others, such as Owen Latti- German power in the 1930s spurred
more and Nicholas Spykman, contem- shifts toward fascism elsewhere, and the
plated the effects of geography and emergence of Soviet power in the 1940s
regionalism. Clarence Streit pondered led to a raft of communist insurgencies
the possibilities of a union of democra- and Soviet-backed regimes. No book
cies, Friedrich Hayek and Lionel Robbins has made a stronger case that the fate
debated the limits of welfare capitalism of democracy is tied to the rise and fall
and economic federalism, and H. G. of great powers and the leadership of
Wells and Michael Polanyi explored liberal hegemonic states.
the transformative roles of science and
technology. Rosenboim argues that what
united these disparate thinkers was their All Measures Short of War: The Contest for
shared conviction that the scale and scope the Twenty-first Century and the Future of
of world politics were rapidly changing American Power
and that new ideas about political author- BY THOMAS J. WRIGHT. Yale
ity and cooperation were needed. University Press, 2017, 288 pp.
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I
n the past decade, the development it carried out by imf staff, and presents
of hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) his findings in comprehensible, non-
in a competitive energy market has technical language. The book reports
produced an abundance of relatively on how high public debt (relative to gdp)
cheap natural gas in the United States. must be, and under what circumstances,
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T
ane hydrates trapped under Arctic ice, he U.S. military has little
which would aggravate climate change, difficulty winning battles, but
and the relative cooling of Europe that once it begins to occupy terri-
might result from a southward shift of tory, it gets into trouble, no matter how
the Gulf Stream. Wadhams also dis- benign its intentions. Both Weston
cusses Antarctica, where, in contrast to and Malkasian saw this phenomenon
the Arctic, the sea ice seems to be grow- firsthand as civilians working closely
ing. The book would have benefited from with the U.S. military in Afghanistan
more material on the land-based ice in and Iraq. Weston details his experi-
Greenland, which is distinct from the sea ences with U.S. marines and Iraqis in
ice around Greenland and which influ- Fallujah, trying to make the city func-
ences sea levels. tion, and then reflects on a similar stint
in the Afghan city of Khost, close to
the Pakistani border. He attempts to
come to terms with the human impact
of the wars, visiting the graves of 31
marines whose helicopter was brought
down in a mission for which Weston
feels responsible. This is a book of bitter
and mournful reflections, of lives lost,
and of failures to think through the
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book goes on to argue for the importance in campaigns with the legion from Algeria
of modernization in dampening violent to Indochina to Madagascar, to explore
urges, which it does by making peace the legion’s character, role, and fights.
seem so much more attractive. With the
rise of U.S. power, the modernization
process took a distinctly liberal turn and The United States
served as the basis for optimistic post–
Cold War visions of a peaceful future. Walter Russell Mead
That optimism has been dented. Gat is
less than confident that benign trends
will continue, noting the challenge posed
by more authoritarian forms of modern- The Ideas Industry: How Pessimists,
ization, exemplified by China, and the Partisans, and Plutocrats Are Transforming
risks to peace from societies that have the Marketplace of Ideas
turned against modernization altogether, BY DANIEL W. DREZNER. Oxford
especially in the Middle East. University Press, 2017, 360 pp.
I
n this iconoclastic look at “the ideas
At the Edge of the World: The Heroic industry” formed by universities,
Century of the French Foreign Legion nonprofit think tanks, for-profit
BY JEAN-VINCENT BLANCHARD. consultancies, newspapers, magazines,
Bloomsbury, 2017, 272 pp. and online sources of news and analysis,
Drezner offers an engaging perspective on
The French Foreign Legion was estab- the state of the U.S. foreign policy world.
lished in 1831 at a time of disorder in He also makes a spirited, if not totally
France. At first it was composed of only convincing, defense of his own discipline
foreigners (French citizens were able to of political science and takes some well-
join after 1881), and a recruit had to offer aimed swipes at the pretensions of
only a name and a healthy body to join. economists. Few in the United States
The legionnaires’ loyalty was largely to are better placed to describe this world:
one another, but France fashioned the Drezner is a tenured professor at a major
recruits into an effective force available university (Tufts), a widely admired
for tough situations, especially in the columnist for The Washington Post, and a
French colonies. A mythology developed former think tanker. Drezner believes that
around the legion, promoted in books and despite its problems, the world of Ameri-
movies in which the legionnaire appeared can intellectual debate is in reasonably
as a brooding but brave outcast, wearing a good shape. Vigorous competition among
trademark kepi and accepting the hazards intellectuals for attention and influence,
of war to escape a murky past. Blanchard’s Drezner argues, ensures that new ideas
scholarly but entertaining book shows that get a hearing and that well-established
the mystery and romance associated with ones can be toppled. Although every
the legion had some basis in reality. component of the marketplace of ideas
Blanchard uses the career of Marshal faces both financial and intellectual
Louis-Hubert Lyautey, who was involved challenges, it continues to grow, and both
elite and popular audiences continue to The Making of Black Lives Matter: A
engage in the argument over the United Brief History of an Idea
States’ place in the world. BY CHRISTOPHER J. LEBRON.
Oxford University Press, 2017, 216 pp.
The Financial Diaries: How American Lebron takes a deep, compelling dive into
Families Cope in a World of Uncertainty the intellectual and cultural background
BY JONATHAN MORDUCH AND of the Black Lives Matter movement. The
RACHEL SCHNEIDER. Princeton concrete demands of the movement for
University Press, 2017, 248 pp. safer and less violent law enforcement are
important, he argues, but the movement
Morduch and Schneider carried out a flows from a deeper source: the quest of
fascinating research project: they and a African Americans to live rich lives in a
team of associates worked with more than society that all too frequently devalues
250 U.S. households over a year collect- black humanity and blocks black achieve-
ing detailed information about how much ment. In his view, the political push for
they earned, how much they spent, and black rights has always been the external
why they made the decisions they did. aspect of a movement whose center is the
What the authors found was that income inner, spiritual struggle of black Ameri-
for lower- and lower-middle-income cans to assert and protect their dignity
households often varies from month to in a harsh environment. A vital element
month, and those variations are respon- of the struggle, Lebron argues, involves
sible for much of the emotional stress and maintaining the capacity to love white
economic difficulty such families experi- people even in the midst of injustice—a
ence. For retail workers whose hours position that evokes Martin Luther King,
and schedules change, or waiters whose Jr., and the Christian roots of the African
tips go up and down depending on the American political tradition. For Lebron,
season, or sporadically employed people to lose that capacity would mean a dimin-
who endure gaps between temporary ished self; in his view, the Black Lives
jobs, the erratic nature of their income Matter movement derives its deepest
compounds the problems of poverty. meaning from simultaneously struggling
The book’s portrayal of its subjects often against injustice and fighting the corrosive
seems too earnest and one-dimensional: effects of that injustice on its victims.
the poor are always sincere strivers; big
corporations are invariably greedy. If
there were any alcoholics or drug addicts Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed
among the families who blew their Campaign
money on substance abuse, the authors BY JONATHAN ALLEN AND AMIE
don’t tell readers. The book recycles and PARNES. Crown, 2017, 480 pp.
repeats its core ideas more than needed.
Nevertheless, its main point is impor- As Americans struggle to come to terms
tant and holds up well: policies aimed with the consequences of the remarkable
at alleviating poverty need to look harder presidential election of 2016, Allen and
at increasingly erratic income streams. Parnes take a comprehensive look at the
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F
statesmanship come into clearer relief or centuries, opera was not only
with the passage of time. One of the the most prestigious form of
deep stains on his reputation, and a key Western music but also the most
reason why so many liberals disliked him political. Cohen observes that the invention
so strongly in the 1950s, was the percep- of opera coincided with the emergence
tion that he avoided confrontations with of the modern nation-state, and the art
Senator Joseph McCarthy, the flamboy- form’s subsequent evolution has mirrored
antly demagogic anticommunist. In Ike changes in state power. Many of the great-
and McCarthy, Nichols argues persuasively est operas raise profound questions of
political philosophy. Claudio Monteverdi’s forced him to flee to the United States.
operas portray the ruthless political Yet he won in the end when, after the
intrigue that the composer saw around war, the octogenarian returned to Italy
him in small Italian courts. Operas by to inspire a new generation. His life
Jean-Baptiste Lully and Jean-Philippe stands as a lesson that artists can be
Rameau explore how absolutist monarchs, the most visible conscience of an era.
such as the Bourbon kings for whom the
two composers wrote, can wield their
power for moral ends. Mozart’s three Hitler’s American Model: The United
great Da Ponte operas trace subtle shifts States and the Making of Nazi Race Law
in eighteenth-century society and ques- BY JAMES Q. WHITMAN. Princeton
tion whether a social hierarchy headed University Press, 2017, 224 pp.
by aristocratic men is truly consistent
with Enlightenment values. This subtly Historians of the twentieth century
insightful book helps readers experi- often represent the New Deal–era United
ence these timeless masterpieces anew. States and Nazi Germany as polar oppo-
Composers have not been the only sites. This unsettling book demolishes
figures in the opera world to take on that orthodoxy. It carefully documents
politics; conductors have as well, includ- how the tradition of racist laws in the
ing Arturo Toscanini, one of the great- United States inspired and instructed
est in history. From the moment in Adolf Hitler and Nazi lawmakers in
1886 when Toscanini, then a 19-year- fashioning their own racist policies.
old cellist and chorus master, stepped Many forget that as late as the 1930s,
in as a last-minute substitute and con- the United States remained one of the
ducted Verdi’s Aida from memory, he world’s most salient models of legally
excelled not just at Italian operas but institutionalized racism. Nazi lawyers
also at those by Beethoven, Wagner, closely studied Jim Crow laws imposing
and many others. Other books have segregation, denying equal citizenship,
analyzed his exceptional musical inter- banning nonwhite immigration, and
pretations and traced his impact on the criminalizing miscegenation. Hitler
way we listen to music today. This long himself praised the United States for
biography updates Sachs’ two previous its record on race relations, not least
books on Toscanini and seeks to be the for its westward expansion through the
final word on the conductor’s life and conquest and extermination of Native
times. Much of the book concerns his Americans. Whitman is admirably careful
intimate personal life, which was at times not to exaggerate the influence of the
risqué. Yet the author also emphasizes U.S. model on Nazi Germany: he recog-
Toscanini’s role as the most prominent nizes that twentieth-century American
antifascist musician of the mid-twentieth southern racism was decentralized rather
century. His courageous opposition to than fascist and incapable of inspiring
Francisco Franco, Adolf Hitler, and mass murder on the industrial scale of
Benito Mussolini made headlines world- the Holocaust. Indeed, Nazi jurists
wide. Eventually, violent assaults on him criticized their American counterparts
in Italy, along with Hitler’s success, for their hypocrisy in publicly denying
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yet locally practicing systematic racism. negotiate lent France clout. For those
Whitman reminds readers of the subtle who prize global cultural diversity,
ironies of modern history and of the need this is a hopeful tale.
to be constantly vigilant against racism.
The Holocaust: A New History volume history of the Holocaust will have
BY LAURENCE REES. PublicAffairs, trouble finding one better than this.
2017, 552 pp.
I
was a vicious anti-Semite, the extermi- f the Trump administration adopts
nation of the Jews was not his initial the economic protectionism that
conception of the Final Solution. Nor the U.S. president threatened to
did the mass murder result from a single, pursue during his 2016 campaign, the
clear decision. Rather, it evolved out countries of Latin America could respond
of incremental bureaucratic escalation with “open regionalism”—bringing
and adaptation during wartime and their economies closer together while
was pursued unevenly. Second, the deepening their integration into other
Jews were neither the only group nor inviting global markets. Although crafted
even the first one that the Nazis tar- prior to the U.S. election, the message
geted for industrial extermination. of this volume by World Bank econo-
They pioneered concentration camps mists is even more pertinent today. It
to house political and war prisoners offers a warning to those who imagine
and invented the technique of gassing that Latin America has no alternative
individuals in showers to liquidate to U.S. markets and so can be readily
disabled people. Third, neither the bullied into unilateral trade concessions.
Jews nor the Germans were passive. The authors recognize that advocates
Many, perhaps most, concentration of open regionalism—hardly a new
camp guards simply followed orders, concept—have failed to raise intra
but some went to special lengths to be regional exports beyond 20 percent of
inhumanly cruel, and a few others total exports. But a cold shoulder from
engaged in acts of humanity. And con the Trump administration might act as
trary to common misunderstandings, a catalyst. The authors recommend
Jews organized defiance and armed further trade liberalization, especially
opposition, most notably in the Warsaw between Mexico and countries in
ghetto. Readers looking for a single- Central and South America, and argue
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Eastern Europe and Former one book to read on the subject, this
should be it.
Soviet Republics Rappaport’s account takes a very
different tack. Hers is an almost day-
Robert Legvold by-day, street-level portrait of life
amid the violence, disorder, and drama
during and between the revolutions of
Russia in Revolution: An Empire in Crisis, February and October 1917 (which are
1890 to 1928 together referred to as the Russian
BY S. A. SMITH. Oxford University Revolution). She constructs her story
Press, 2017, 448 pp. out of hundreds of eyewitness accounts
by foreigners who found themselves
Caught in the Revolution in Russia’s capital—either by choice or
BY HELEN RAPPAPORT. St. Martin’s because they were trapped when the
Press, 2017, 464 pp. paths of escape closed. They included
British volunteer nurses, American
Was Revolution Inevitable? Turning Points socialites on goodwill missions, and
of the Russian Revolution journalists, bankers, businessmen, and
EDITED BY TONY BRENTON. diplomats from many countries. Their
Oxford University Press, 2017, 384 pp. diaries and correspondence represent a
treasure-trove that Rappaport deftly
T
he centenary of the 1917 Russian mines. Her book transports the reader
Revolution has brought forth a into the melee, conveying what it felt
number of excellent new histo- like to be in surging crowds of strik-
ries, including these three, which differ ing workers as a Cossack cavalry
from one another in striking ways but charged, sabers drawn; to take cover
all feature superb insight into one of as machine guns blazed atop build-
the last century’s turning points. Smith’s ings; to witness infuriated mobs turn
book is the most comprehensive of the on the police; to experience the sharp
three. Indeed, in many respects, it is contrast between the uninterrupted
the most expansive history of the 1917 extravagance of the privileged few
revolution available. Smith traces the and the exploding misery of most
revolution in detail, as well as its prelude others as the war’s costs mounted;
and aftermath. Every step of the way, and to observe overheated workers’
he draws in the many different elements meetings and quarrelsome govern-
of the period—not just the political ment sessions alongside the British
tumult but also the changing character writer W. Somerset Maugham, who
of Russian society, economic develop- was living in Petrograd and working
ments, cultural trends, and the impact as a spy for the United Kingdom.
of a turbulent international context. But what if none of those things
Throughout, Smith fairly and intelli- had ever happened at all? Brenton
gently arbitrates the great debates assembles a team of premier historians
among historians over how to interpret to wrestle with the twists of fate that
the revolution. Were readers to look for might have averted the Bolshevik
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I
n the recent flood of accounts of ment. His book tells a sweeping story
radical Islam, this one stands out. of how the three great centers of Middle
Maher’s compelling exploration of Eastern society and religion—Cairo,
Salafi jihadism achieves a level of clarity Istanbul, and Tehran—have ridden a
that perhaps could be produced only by roller coaster in dealing with the West,
someone who, like Maher, once adhered and he peppers his tale with marvelous
to that strain of thought. The book is portraits of leaders, thinkers, and activ-
exceptional also in its focus on theol- ists. De Bellaigue blurs the plot a bit
ogy: although Maher is a specialist in by using terms such as “Enlightenment,”
jihadist radicalization, he dwells little “modernity,” and “liberal values” inter-
on jihadists’ motivations, paying much changeably. But he makes a strong case
more attention to their beliefs. Salafi that, contrary to the conventional wis-
jihadism rests on five doctrinal building dom, the Middle East has not suffered
blocks that together create a coherent from intellectual torpor but in fact often
and consistent ideology: jihad (holy war), creatively incorporated and developed
tawhid (the oneness of God), hakimiyya many ideas that originated in the West.
(true Islamic government), al-wala wal- He also describes, however, a reactionary
bara (loyalty to divine truth and disavowal “counter-Enlightenment” that is now
of untruth and polytheism), and takfir more powerful than ever and whose
(the naming of disbelievers). (There origins he locates in the 1928 founding
are some partially irreconcilable tenets, of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
however, when it comes to the killing of De Bellaigue posits that the intellec-
innocents.) This extremist creed reflects tual history of the region has been too
core Islamic beliefs. But the contempo- often told by “triumphalist” Western
rary appeal and spread of Salafi jihad- historians and “renegade” Muslims who
ism have been most profoundly shaped have turned on their religion. But his
by the civil war in Algeria in the 1990s, references suggest otherwise, and his
the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and own arguments echo those of advocates
the ongoing turmoil in Afghanistan. of “defensive modernization,” who in
The unending conflict in Syria will the 1950s and 1960s argued that the
lead to the further refinement and main problem facing the Middle East
growth of this form of radicalism, and was how to absorb the military and
not to its demise. engineering prowess imported from
an aggressive West.
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O
ne hundred and forty-three focus the diversity as well as the inter-
authors contributed 161 short connectedness of Indian society, the
chapters to this monumental strictness of social hierarchies along
survey of modern Chinese literature in with the power of individuality, the
all its forms, from the late eighteenth intensity of religious commitment and
century to the present. Yet the book reads the clash of different faiths, the gradual
like the work of a single versatile author: construction of a sense of nationhood
vivid, probing, and occasionally playful. and the long struggle for independence.
It raises to a new level the knowledge In almost every sketch, Khilnani shows
available in English about this vast how the past has been remade to serve
192 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
present-day agendas. The book reads
like the bbc radio series from which it
was adapted: punchy, personal, and Not all readers
quick moving, creating an incentive to
learn more. are leaders,
but all leaders
Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information
Warfare and Cyber Operations are readers.
BY DEAN CHENG. Praeger, 2016, - Harry S. Truman
290 pp.
193
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and national legislatures with people national consensus remains elusive, the
who have been charged with (if not center of public discourse on this subject
always convicted of) serious, sometimes has moved to the right, even if not all
violent crimes. The money such repro- the way to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s
bates can muster helps them gain office, preferred stance of revising the “peace
but Vaishnav argues that the two real constitution.” So-called conservative
enablers are ethnic rivalries and weak realists have taken over the mainstream
institutions. When courts and adminis- in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party,
trative agencies don’t work, voters in new parties have emerged to the ldp’s
ethnic or religious communities may right, the main opposition parties on
rationally prefer representatives who the left have become more pragmatic
can protect their interests by whatever about security issues, and the military
means necessary, which allows criminal- has gained greater influence. Signs of the
minded musclemen to shift from merely resulting “security renaissance” include
supporting candidates to running for Japan’s acquisition of sophisticated new
office themselves. Vaishnav makes a ships and antimissile systems, the re
convincing case by telling tales from the deployment of Japanese forces to defend
campaign trail, analyzing the conditions the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands,
that breed crime and corruption, and strengthened military cooperation with
probing survey data that reveal that the United States, an embrace of a larger
voters who are particularly focused on role in collective defense beyond East
their ethnic identities are more willing Asia (including in the Middle East), and
than others to vote for candidates charged outreach to regional neighbors such as
with crimes. His study reinforces the Australia, India, and Vietnam. Japan is
growing consensus that healthy democ- not reverting to militarism, but it has
racies require strong institutions not become a more formidable security actor.
only of accountability (such as elections)
but also of governance, and he concludes
with a robust set of recommendations North Korea and Nuclear Weapons:
for how to clean up Indian politics. Entering the New Era of Deterrence
EDITED BY SUNG CHULL KIM AND
MICHAEL D. COHEN. Georgetown
Japan’s Security Renaissance: New Policies University Press, 2017, 240 pp.
and Politics for the Twenty-first Century
BY ANDREW L. OROS. Columbia Although the United States insists that
University Press, 2017, 320 pp. North Korea must give up its nuclear
weapons, most analysts agree that won’t
Over the past decade, intensifying happen. Nor is the regime in Pyongyang
Chinese and North Korean threats to likely to solve the problem by collapsing.
Japan have accelerated a long-brewing A military attack to end North Korea’s
shift in what Oros calls Japan’s “security nuclear program is close to unthinkable
identity,” from a country that can never because of the huge cost it would impose
use force to one that must play a larger on South Korea, which would face imme-
role in defending itself. Although a diate retaliation from the North. What
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remains as the most likely scenario, this complexity as “a series of homelands” for
book’s contributors argue, is nuclear more than 50 distinct ethnic groups that
deterrence. Although deterrence theory forged a common identity as Vietnamese
is highly developed, few have discussed only in the last couple of centuries and
how it may apply to this case. The con- that even now only partially adhere to
tributors warn that deterrence between that identity. The territory was divided
Washington and Pyongyang may be less and redivided by successive chiefdoms
stable than it was between Washington and kingdoms; invaders came and went.
and Moscow during the Cold War. North Languages and religions were formed
Korea would likely take advantage of the and reformed by migration, trade, and
standoff to proliferate nuclear technology conquest. Although the war against the
and to increase its nonnuclear provoca- United States is an important part of
tions, and the lack of communication Vietnam’s story, it takes its place in the
between the two sides would generate a broad sweep of history as just one episode
higher risk of escalation than existed in a long series of struggles that people
during the Cold War. Because a nuclear have waged over this piece of land.
strike on North Korea would damage
China, fear of Beijing’s response would
make U.S. resolve less credible. Japan and Africa
South Korea might not trust the United
States to protect them to the same degree Nicolas van de Walle
that Washington’s European allies did,
and they could go nuclear themselves.
Deterrence may be the least worst option
for dealing with a nuclear-armed North Warlord Democrats in Africa: Ex-Military
Korea, but it would be no panacea. Leaders and Electoral Politics
EDITED BY ANDERS THEMNER.
Zed Books, 2017, 264 pp.
Viet Nam: A History From Earliest Times
I
to the Present n a number of African countries,
BY BEN KIERNAN. Oxford University civil conflicts have ended with
Press, 2017, 656 pp. awkward transitions from military
rule to civilian leadership. Regular multi-
This ambitious survey is pathbreaking party elections have become the norm
not only in its chronological scope (from in most of these countries, leaving former
prehistory to the present) and the breadth guerrilla leaders, military officers, and
of its sources but also in its thematic reach. other assorted “big men” with little
Kiernan explores Vietnam’s ecological choice but to put away their guns and
diversity, from mountains to lowlands begin second careers as politicians,
to coastal regions; the country’s envi- asking citizens for votes. This collection
ronmental changes and their effects on of essays assesses how this phenomenon
Vietnamese society; Vietnam’s evolving has shaped African democracy. A prob-
literary genres; and the changing role of ing essay discusses the career of Rwandan
its women. He emphasizes Vietnam’s President Paul Kagame and makes clear
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Caribbean. Jansen and Osterhammel Isaias Afwerki, run the country with an
usefully distinguish between the nation- iron grip. Afwerki’s rule combines
alist and the anticolonial ideologies that old-fashioned authoritarian repression
started to emerge prior to World War II. (inspired by Maoist doctrines) with
African and Caribbean intellectuals and unrestrained corruption: the handful of
elites who protested against colonial profitable businesses in the country are
rule often initially sought only limited controlled by regime cronies—with the
reforms, well short of independence; an help of banks in nearby Dubai, according
array of grievances typically competed to Plaut. Because the regime has never
with nationalist motivations. The emer- conducted a real census, keeps no official
gence of a cohesive nationalist anticolo- economic statistics, and refuses to publish
nialism came only late in the struggle a national budget, analysts have been
and remained partial in many colonies left to merely guess at the extent of the
of the region. Jansen and Osterhammel government’s economic malpractice.
nicely contrast the clear break with Plaut has written a well-informed and
colonialism represented by political useful introduction to the country. He
independence with the fuzzier continu- argues that the long-standing border
ity that has characterized economic dispute with Ethiopia is sustained by
relations between ex-colonies and their Afwerki’s growing paranoia but that
former rulers. Finally, the book shows the Ethiopians have also helped keep
that, although important intellectual the conflict going for their own pur-
and political movements in the colonies poses, even though international law is
had long advocated a loosening of ties pretty clearly on Eritrea’s side.∂
for a combination of ideological and
pragmatic reasons, it was the Cold War
competition between the West and the
Soviet bloc that really made decoloni-
zation inevitable, thanks to communist
opposition to colonialism and to West-
ern fears that nationalist groups in the
colonies would turn to the Soviet Union
for support.
198 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Letters to the Editor
leave me puzzled about what he con- he writes, “At its best, the concentric
siders a desirable East Asian order. triangles strategy will encourage Beijing
He writes in The End of the Asian to adapt its policies around accepted
Century that “in some ways, Asia has rules and norms.” That is a desirable
never recovered from the fall of the outcome, but it is also surely a grand
Last Emperor, the Qing ruler Puyi, in claim. Auslin argues that his design
1911 during the Chinese Revolution.” will give the United States a “clearer
Later, he argues that the Association objective.” Maybe. But if it does, it
of Southeast Asian Nations could not will be one that increases the risks
“ever be a replacement for the last rather than reduces them, particularly
stable political order in Asia, the Qing if coupled with, as he advocates, a
Empire.” Such statements certainly greater “commitment to reaching out
suggest nostalgia. If that was not his to ordinary Chinese” to “provide an
intent, he should have resisted using insight into democratic thinking, to
historical references that convey an air encourage those voices in China strug-
of erudition but get the facts wrong. gling for civil society, and to let them
In fact, the “last stable political order know they are not alone.”
in Asia” was the U.S.-led one. Because To think that China would not regard
that system is no longer sustainable in such actions as attempts at regime change
its present form, the issue that seizes and that they would not destabilize the
East Asia is how—or whether—it can region is delusional.∂
maintain peace and prosperity by recon-
ciling the existing order with China’s
legitimate ambitions.
Auslin correctly notes that “asean’s
primary goal has always been to forge
closer ties among its own members.”
But most of his discussion of asean
betrays a lack of understanding of the
practical realities of East Asian diplo-
macy. This is evident from his refer-
ences to the eu and nato, which he
apparently considers desirable models.
The issues are complex, but, in short,
it is pointless to criticize a cow for
being an imperfect horse.
Auslin argues that I make “grander
claims” for his “concentric triangles”
initiative than he does. But in his book,
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Agree Disagree
“Because the Paris agree- “The challenges in
ment is quite limited with decarbonizing a growing
regard to targets, time- global economy that is
tables, and compliance, still more than 80 percent
the link between ratifying dependent on fossil
the agreement and actual fuels—and with several
outcomes on emissions, adaptation, and billion people still lacking decent energy
finance is primarily symbolic. That said, services—transcend a single presidency,
symbols matter.” even this one.”