MATH 230 Probability: Exercise 11

S. Bashir
Spring, 2019

Problem 1
Every 15 minutes the bus of route 17 leaves RTS Downtown. If I arrive at a bus stop
let X be the number of minutes I have to wait. X ∼ U [0, 15].

a. What’s the probability that a bus will come in 5 mins ?

b. Find the time that there is only 10% chance that the bus will not come by that
time.

.........
Solution:

a.
5−0
P (X < 5) =
15 − 0
1
=
3

b.

P (X > x1) = 0.1

P (X < x1) = 0.9
x1 − 0
= 0.9
15 − 0
x1 = 15 × 0.9
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Problem 2
Sasha is a clerk in a convenience store. She needs to go to the bathroom and leaves her
counter unattended at 1:02 PM. When she returns at 1:08 PM, there is an impatient
customer waiting at the counter.

1. Why is this a Continuous Uniform distribution situation? What are the param-
eters? What is X?

2. What is the expected time the customer arrived?

3. What is the variance for the time the customer arrived?

4. What is the probability the customer arrived within the last 2 minutes (i.e.,
between 1:06 PM and 1:08 PM)?

5. Given that the impatient customer did not arrive in the first 2 minutes, what
is the probability that he arrived in the last 2 minutes of this interval?

.........
Solution:

1. The customer was equally likely to have arrived anytime in the continuous range
between 1:02 and 1:08. The parameters are a = 2 and b = 8. The random
variable X is the customer’s actual arrival time.

2.
2+8
E(X) = =5
2
, i.e., 1:05 pm

3.
(8 − 2)2
V ar(X) = =3
12
4.
Z8
1
P (6 ≤ X ≤ 8) = dx
8−2
6
1
= [8 − 6]
6
1
=
3

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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5. When working with Uniform random variables, if a condition removes some of

the interval, all of the remaining conditional probabilities are still Uniform on
the remaining interval. E.g., in this example, we have the condition X ≥ 4. So
the portion [2, 4] of the original interval is removed. What remains is the rest of
the interval, i.e., [4, 8]. Thus, the conditional density is constant on the interval
[4, 8]. So,
P (X > 6 ∩ X > 4) P (X > 6) 1
P (X > 6|X > 4) = = =
P (X > 4) P (X > 4) 2

Problem 3
If a burglary happens in an apartment, the costs to the renter from the theft, T, can
be modeled by a Continuous Uniform random variable ranging from no charge up to
$4000.
1. What is the probability distribution function for the cost of damage?
2. What is the expected cost of damage?
3. What is the standard deviation in the cost of damage?

.........
Solution:

1.
1
fT (x) = for 0 ≤ X ≤ 4000
4000
= 0 otherwise

2.
0 + 4000
E(T ) = = 2000
2
3.
(4000 − 0)2
V ar(T ) =
12
r
(4000 − 0)2
SD(T ) =
12

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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Problem 4
The net weight in pounds of a packaged chemical herbicide is uniform for 49.75 <
x < 50.25 pounds. Determine the mean and variance of the weight of packages.

.........
Solution:

49.75 + 50.25
E(T ) = = 50
2
(50.25 − 49.75)2
V ar(T ) = = 0.02083
12

Problem 5
The thickness of a flange on an aircraft component is uniformly distributed between
0.95 and 1.05 millimeters.

1. Determine the proportion of flanges that exceeds 1.02 millimeters.

2. What thickness is exceeded by 90% of the flanges?

3. Determine the mean and variance of flange thickness

.........
Solution:

1.

P (X > 1.02) = 1 − P (X < 1.02)

1.02 − 0.95
= 1−
1.05 − 0.95
0.07
= 1−
0.10
= 0.3

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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2.

P (X > x1) = 0.9

P (X < x1) = 0.1
x1 − 0
= 0.1
1.05 − 0.95
x1 = 0.1 × 0.1

3.
0.95 + 1.05
E(X) = =1
2
(1.05 − 0.95)2
V ar(X) = = 0.00083
12

Problem 6
The probability density function of the time it takes a hematology cell counter to
complete a test on a blood sample is f (x) = 0.04 for 50 < x < 75 seconds.

(a) What percentage of tests require more than 70 seconds to complete.

(b) What percentage of tests require less than one minute to complete.

(c) Determine the mean and variance of the time to complete a test on a sample.

.........
Solution:

(a)

P (X > 70) = 1 − P (X < 70)

70 − 50
= 1−
75 − 50
20
= 1−
25
1
=
5

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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(b)
60 − 50
P (X < 60) =
75 − 50
10
=
25
2
=
5

(c)
50 + 75
E(X) = = 62.5 Seconds
2
(75 − 50)2
V ar(X) = = 52.0833
12

Problem 7
Let X, Y be (respectively) the number of nights that Alice, Bob eat in the dining hall
during a 7-day week. Assume that X, Y are independent Binomial random variables
that each have n = 7 & p = 0.65.

• What is the distribution of X +Y , i.e., the total number of meals eaten by these
2 people (altogether) during a week?

• Find V ar(X + Y ).

.........
Solution:

• The distribution of X + Y , is Binomial (sums of independent Binomial) with

n = 14; p = 0.65

• V ar(X + Y ) = 14(0.65)(0.35) = 3.185.

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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Problem 8
At a local store, there are 14 customers during a given evening. Each customer has
an expected purchase of $4.90, with a standard deviation of $1.50. If the customers’
purchases are assumed to be independent and approximately Normal, what is the
approximate probability that the revenue exceeds $74 on a given evening?

.........
Solution:

The
p 14 customers are expected to spend 14(4.90) = $68.60 with standard deviation
σ = 14(1.5) = $5.612. The probability they will spend a total of more than $74 is
74 − 68.6
P (Z ≥ ) = P (Z ≥ 2.62) = 0.1685.
5.612

Problem 9
Suppose that the number of men who visit a website is Poisson, with mean 12 per
minute, and the number of women who visit the same site is also Poisson, with mean
15 per minute. Assume that the number of men and women are independent.
a. During the next 10 seconds, what is the probability that 1 man and 2 women visit
the site?
b. What is the expected number of people who visit the site in the next 5 minutes?
c. What is the variance of the total number of people who visit the site in the next
5 minutes?

.........
Solution:

a. t = 10sec; λ1 t = 12/60 × 10 = 2; λ2 t = 15/60 × 10 = 2.5

e−2 21 e−2.5 2.52
P (1 man and 2 women) = × = 0.0694
1 2!
b.
E(X) = (λ1 + λ2 )t = 27(5) = 135

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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c.
V ar(X) = (λ1 + λ2 )t = 27(5) = 135

Problem 10
Let X1 and X2 be the number of calls arriving at a switching centre from two different
localities in a given hour. X1 and X2 are well modelled as independent Poisson random
variables with parameters 5 and 25 respectively. What is the approximate probability
that the total number of calls exceeds 3 in the next 5 minutes?

.........
Solution:

Sums of independent Poisson is also Poisson with parameter 5 + 25 = 30 calls per

hour. t = 5 minutes. Therefore, λ = 30/60 × 5 = 2.5
3
X e−2.5 2.5x
P (X1 + X2 > 3) = 1 − = 0.2424
x1+x2=0
x!

Problem 11
Harry is a surfer who can successfully ride about 70% of waves. Assume that his
wave-riding ability is independently geometric variable, from wave to wave. Let X be
the number of waves that pass until he successfully catches his 8th wave. What is
the probability that X is between 10 and 12 (inclusive)?

.........
Solution:

Sums of independent geometric is Negative Binomial with parameter p = 0.70; r =

8

     
9 8 2 10 8 3 11
P (10 < X < 12) = (0.7) (0.3) + (0.7) (0.3) + (0.7)8 (0.3)4 = 0.5277
7 7 7

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11

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MATH 230 Probability Exercise 11