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AEROSPACE
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2020
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
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December 23, 2019-January 12, 2020 . Volume 181 . Number 25
AVIATIONWEEK
Winner
2019 2016
Winner & S PA C E T E C H N O L O G Y
Boeing plans to focus on

8 reducing the backlog of
undelivered MAXs when
the model is cleared to fly.
FEATURE DEPARTMENTS
8 | PRODUCTION DISRUPTION 128 | Classified
The pause in building Boeing 737 129 | Contact Us
MAXs creates uncertainty but 129 | Aerospace Calendar
revised pilot training makes progress
EDITORS’ LETTER SIMULATION AND TRAINING

5 | Aviation Week’s next digital age 23 | U.S. military leaders seek
COMMERCIAL AVIATION open-source simulation
12 | Boeing 737 MAX changes are SPACE
moving into pilot response 18 | Rocket Lab and Wallops Island
Spaceport expect big U.S. launch growth
14 | Widebody market weakness shows
signs of lasting structural change 19 | Air Force space policy guru Loverro tackles
NASA human spaceflight
SUSTAINABILITY
16 | Harbour Air and MagniX claim 22 | European Space Agency
a first for electric aircraft gathers record multiyear funding
AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 23, 2019-JANUARY 12, 2020 3
A ER OSPACE & DEFENS E 2 0 2 0
FEATURES
24 | Pressure Points 100 | Air Transport Profiles 130 | Second Take
Disruption has become a fact of life Hurdles and uncertainty loom for A look at aerospace milestones
in the past decade, and the 2020s airlines in the coming year, but of the last 10 years
look set to be another period of there are bright spots, too
dramatic change for aerospace
112| Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul
26 | Watchpoints for 2020 The year ahead will see more
Selected developments to keep mergers and acquisitions and use of
an eye on in the new year automation, shortages of parts and
technicians, 737 MAX engine effects,
32 | Defense Profiles and growth in Asia and
Military budgets continue to rise, Latin America
but defense agendas are roiled by
uncertainty
57 | Defense Systems
Development challenges
present hard options,
and attention shifts to
countering new threats
68 | Aerospace Systems
Drone delivery buzz, shifting
Pentagon UAS needs, emerging
cargo UAVs, ascending electric
power, USAF launch contest,
mass satellite production
82 | Commercial Aviation
Boeing 737 MAX production halt
causes turmoil, Airbus continues DATA
to struggle with production
challenges, and the industry 28 | Defense Competitions
focuses on sustainability
62 | Defense Data Center
78 | Commercial Aviation Forecast
98 | Civil Data Center
110| MRO Forecast
124 | MRO Workforce
ON THE COVER
As the new decade begins, advances in digitization, electrification and other technologies are
shaping product development decisions ranging from commercial airliners to combat aircraft and
advanced rotorcraft to air taxis. Aviation Week looks at the issues, from sustainable aviation to
superpower rivalry. Airbus A350 photo by Anthony Pecchi.
Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST
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4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 23, 2019-JANUARY 12, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST
FROM THE EDITOR
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COMMERCIAL AVIATION > 737 training update p. 12 Widebody market weakness p. 14
PRODUCTION DIS
Michael Bruno Washington, Guy Norris Los Angeles, > BOEING WILL SUSPEND
Molly McMillin Wichita and Sean Broderick Washington BUILDING MAXs IN JANUARY
B
oeing’s drastic decision to suspend 737 MAX pro-
duction in the face of managing a growing fleet of The Chicago-based company on
Dec. 16 said it would stop building
idle aircraft and continued uncertainty over when new MAXs in January, following the
the model will be approved to return to service is planned late-December holiday break.
sending shockwaves through the airline industry, posing new It did not provide a specific date for
the pause or speculate when produc-
questions for suppliers, operators and the manufacturer itself. tion would resume. No furloughs are
planned, and the P-8 Poseidon mar-
itime patrol aircraft line will not be
affected.
“This decision is driven by a number
of factors, including the extension of
certification into 2020, the uncertain-
ty about the timing and conditions of
return to service and global training
approvals, and the importance of en-
suring that we can prioritize the de-
livery of stored aircraft,” Boeing said
in its Dec. 16 statement.
The Society of Professional En-
gineering Employees in Aerospace
(SPEEA), the union that represents
affected workers, said, also on Dec. 16,
that Boeing “expects the shutdown
to be measured in weeks, not days,”
and the union reiterated that “there
are currently no plans for layoffs of
SPEEA-represented employees.”
The move will stop the accumula-
tion of undelivered MAXs which has
grown to about 400 since the model
was grounded in mid-March following
its second fatal accident in five months.
Boeing halted deliveries immediately
after regulators grounded the 387
aircraft in service, and in April it cut
monthly 737 production to 42 from 52.
Boeing says once the MAX is cleared
to return, it will prioritize clearing the
backlog of stored aircraft, suggesting a
production resumption will not come
in lockstep with regulatory approval.
The reason: Boeing has no idea when
its entire global customer base will be
able to take MAXs again.
While most foreign regulators’
intentions remain unclear, Boeing
had been confident the FAA would
complete its review of changes to
Boeing plans to focus on the MAX flight-control software and
reducing the backlog of undelivered training and clear the model to return
MAXs when the model is cleared to fly. in late 2019. The company also cau-
tioned that any significant holdups
MARK WAGNER/AVIATIONIMAGES.COM
RUPTION
with Boeing,” GE is offering little. Its
work on the 1B includes all final assem-
bly and testing in addition to building
engine cores.
The consensus among analysts is
that engine production rate changes
> GROWING BACKLOG OF > TALKS WITH SUPPLIERS will be driven by several factors be-
UNDELIVERED MAXs ARE JUST BEGINNING yond Boeing’s needs, including lead
INFLUENCED DECISION times and demand for spares. Given
the breadth and structure of their
would force it to reevaluate produc- “We continue to work closely with portfolios, Safran and GE also have
tion plans. our Boeing customer to support it some flexibility.
In the last several weeks, the FAA during the grounding of the 737 MAX “From a GE manufacturing per-
made clear that its review of final fleet,” Spirit says. “Should Boeing spective, depending on duration,
documentation and validation of make a decision to change its produc- the business could produce spare
emergency procedures and training tion rate on the MAX and expectations engines, buffer stock or repurpose
modules will continue into 2020 (see for suppliers, we will work with them equipment for other programs,” says
page 12). Several other regulators are to understand the impact to Spirit Credit Suisse analyst John Walsh.
planning independent reviews that AeroSystems.” Spirit referred addi- “This is because GE’s manufacturing
likely will keep MAXs grounded in tional questions to Boeing. is focused around value streams (e.g.,
some regions for months, even after Previously, Spirit had told its suppli- fan foils) versus engine programs. Af-
they are cleared to return in the U.S. ers it was going to continue at its cur- termarket revenue on other programs
This, combined with having the total rent production rate of 52 737 shipsets also provide an offset.”
of about 800 idled and stored aircraft a month for the next two years, says Canaccord Genuity analyst Ken
ready to join the global fleet, was Ed Ball, Metal Finishing Co. vice presi- Herbert, who has deep ties within
enough to sway Boeing’s thinking. dent of sales and marketing. Spirit reit- the aerospace supply chain, expects
“We will continue to assess our erated that in August. “Now, that could suppliers to maintain some level of
progress toward return-to-service change tomorrow,” Ball stresses. “As of MAX-related production despite Boe-
milestones and make determinations right now, that’s what we’ve been told ing’s formal halt. “While Boeing will
about resuming production and deliv- and that’s what we’re working to. As likely keep most suppliers running at
eries accordingly,” the company says. of right now, we’re going to stick with some level, it will be supplier-by-sup-
The uncertainty raises lots of what they’ve said.” plier analysis, depending on a number
questions for suppliers, and little in- The abrupt shutdown could have of factors,” he says.
formation has emerged from manag- a potentially significant impact on Bernstein analyst Doug Harned
ers in the days following the OEM’s Leap 1B engine provider CFM. The concurs: “The supply-chain plan will
announcement. Key factors include GE Aviation-Safran joint venture be tailored by suppliers, depending on
whether the company actually cuts spent all of 2018 attempting to catch operational and financial strength.”
orders to suppliers, whether they re- up with Boeing’s accelerating MAX Spirit, which derives about 50% of
ceive financial assistance from Boeing production rate. It only achieved its annual revenue from the 737 pro-
or others, and whether they or Boeing parity in 2019, several months after gram, is most at risk, several analysts
decide to furlough or shed employees. aircraft production was reduced to 42 say. Smaller publicly traded parts pro-
Suppliers are in a wait-and-see per month, in the wake of the MAX viders at risk include Ducommun, 15%;
mode until January, when Boeing grounding. Having stabilized produc- Hexcel, 10%; and Astronics, 7%.
should be providing more information tion at just over an estimated 80 Leap “We believe Boeing will do all that
as it actually cuts MAX production 1Bs per month, including spares, the is possible to ensure that its suppliers
and reports 2019 financial results to company until mid-December was are able to maintain their 737 employ-
Wall Street on Jan. 28, 2020. readying its own supply chain for the ees, to ensure that once Boeing is able
“Boeing has not released anything anticipated resumption of deliveries to start deliveries of the 737 again it
about what they’re actually going to do and gradual increase in the produc- has the ability to ramp up production
production-wise,” says Jason Cox, pres- tion rate that Boeing had signaled for as quickly as possible,” Herbert says.
ident of 320-employee Cox Machine in late 2020 and into 2021. Indeed, maintaining workforce
Wichita. The majority of Cox’s work is However, with the timing of both quality and quantity has been a chal-
for Boeing and on the 737 MAX. these milestones now uncertain, CFM lenge since at least 2018, when Boeing,
The Wichita Eagle reports that Kan- appears to be pulling back. Safran Spirit and other suppliers struggled to
sas Gov. Laura Kelly has volunteered CEO Philippe Petitcolin told French hire and bring on-line enough work-
that her state, home of leading 737 business magazine L’Usine Nouvelle ers to meet Boeing’s march to a 737
supplier Spirit AeroSystems and many CFM should produce at least 30 en- monthly production rate of 57, which
of its smaller subcontractors like Cox, gines per month, noting it is “easier to was slated to be in place this past sum-
may have to step in and help pay work- ramp up when you already have pro- mer. Now, the potential loss of talent,
ers to keep them on the assembly line. duction than to start from scratch.” He access to funding and other incremen-
Spirit CEO Tom Gentile told her the said it was “too early” to speculate if tal risk to the supply chain all point
company is not expecting layoffs but the adjustments would lead to layoffs. to “substantial uncertainty” about
no decisions have been made. Beyond saying it is “working closely Boeing’s ability to raise rates once
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
the production pause ends, according This indicates mechanics will be Prior to the planned January stop-
to Herbert. distributed to assist with everything page, Boeing had suspended production
Others agree. “We can expect a neg- from out-of-sequence 737 work at of the 737 twice since assembly of the
ative ripple effect across the aerospace Renton to supplemental work on oth- first aircraft began in 1965. For the first
industry in 2020,” Accenture Global er assembly lines at Everett, Wash- five years of the program, the initial
Aerospace & Defense Lead John ington, as well as associated support -100 and -200 variants were produced
Schmidt tells Aviation Week. “This work at Boeing Field and other facili- at Boeing Field’s Plant 2 and complet-
impact is likely to be more significant ties in the Seattle area. ed at the nearby Thompson Building,
than prior rate reductions because of Some employees are expected to where the P-8 military derivative is now
the complexities facing suppliers in be drafted for the 777/777X lines, produced. Assembly was transitioned
restarting idled production lines back which are assembling a mix of 777Fs, to Renton in 1970 when Boeing consoli-
up to full production rates.” 777-300ERs and 777-9s. The newer dated production of the 707, 727 and 737
In notes to debt investors, credit 777-9s are being assembled in the narrowbody airliners at one site.
rating agency Fitch just highlighted 40-24 building at Everett, where However, even with the changeover
the new spending and cash demands Boeing has set up a temporary low- between the two lines there was little
while Moody’s Investors Service and rate initial-production (LRIP) line disruption with the rollout of the fi-
S&P Global Ratings notched down to avoid disrupting the current nal Boeing Field-produced 737 (Line
their overall corporate outlook for 777-300ER/200F assembly in the ad- No. 271) on Nov. 3, 1970, and the emer-
Boeing by one degree. Still, all three jacent 40-25 building. gence of the first Renton-produced air-
agencies agree Boeing’s ability meet Under the company’s original plan craft (Line No. 272) just two weeks later.
new demands is strong. from 2018, around 30 airframes were Although the 737 experienced
Meanwhile, Boeing is expected to expected to pass through the LRIP tough market conditions, with only 36
continue to take the brunt of the costs aircraft being delivered in 1970 and
associated with the production rate 14 in 1972, Boeing never stopped pro-
decrease and pending pause—and Prior to the planned duction, although occasionally it did
by all accounts, it can. “Fitch believes consider shutting down the line per-
Boeing’s credit profile can support January stoppage, manently due to poor demand. The
the current MAX stresses due to sub- first serious interruption to the line
Boeing had suspended production came 25 years later in late 1997, when
stantial liquidity, financial flexibility,
access to the capital markets and rev- of the 737 twice since assembly the transition to the first 737 Next Gen-
enue diversification,” the agency re- of the first aircraft began in 1965. eration was underway in parallel with
ported Dec. 17. “Aside from the MAX, a doubling in production rate from 8.5
Boeing’s products and markets are per month in late 1996 to a planned 17
healthy. Overall, Boeing had a strong line before 777X production fully tran- per month by the end of 1997.
credit profile for its ‘A’ rating before sitioned to building 40-25 in the early Overwhelmed by a series of en-
the MAX grounding, and Fitch’s rat- 2020s. However, that assumed at least gineering changes made late in the
ings for the company incorporated the two of the 30 would be the initial test program, unexpected certification
periodic stress periods that arise in the versions of the shorter-fuselage 777-8, issues and supplier shortfalls, the
commercial aviation sector.” and given the delay to that derivative company opted to “rebalance” the 737
Still, Boeing is expected to contin- announced in mid-2019, it remains un- line in late 1997. Although production
ue the suspension of shareholder buy- certain whether these will remain part of aircraft already in the system con-
backs, possibly into the second half of of the pretransition LRIP tally. tinued, and suppliers kept delivering
2021 and likely will take out more debt. Other Renton workers also may their products, no new airframes were
Fitch expects Boeing’s debt will nearly be brought in to support the 767 line, admitted to the assembly line for 25
double in 2019, to around $27 billion, which is accelerating to an increased days. Similar issues occurred on the
as a result of $10.5 billion of long-term delivery rate of three per month as 747 production line at the same time,
issuance and several billion dollars of work on commercial freighters and and Boeing opted to pause the line for
shorter-term commercial debt. Debt the KC-46A military tanker variant several weeks.
likely will continue to rise in the first step up. The second major interruption oc-
quarter of 2020, potentially peaking in Mechanics also may be drafted to curred in 2008 when members of the
2020 and 2021. Fitch expects Boeing work on readying other parts of the International Association of Machin-
will pay down debt, especially its high- Renton production system for the ists and Aerospace Workers struck
er-interest corporate loans. stretched 737-10, the first of which is for 57 days. Although the company had
Managing the financial aspects of a being prepared for the start of flight weathered several periods of industrial
production interruption appears more tests. The aircraft, which is the final upheaval, the 2008 strike was the first
straightforward than Boeing’s labor variant of the MAX and the last de- of its kind to cause a full production
and logistical challenges. While the rivative of the 737 family, was rolled shutdown of the line. The walkout cost
company is not providing specifics, it out to employees at Renton on Nov. the company $1.8 billion and reduced
says the roughly 5,000 Renton, Wash- 22, and is expected to make its first 2008 deliveries by 105 aircraft to 375. c
ington-based MAX production-line em- flight early in 2020. Ground tests are
ployees “will continue 737-related work focused on assessing loads on the Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss
or be temporarily assigned to other derivative’s new “shrink-link” main the coming MAX production halt’s effects:
teams in [the area of] Puget Sound.” landing gear leg design. AviationWeek.com/podcast
Innovation in Miniature
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COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Boeing 737 Pilots Focus Boeing had determined its function was transparent to
pilots and it therefore did not need to be included in the
On Modified Procedures flight manuals or training.
Critically, Boeing believed an uncommanded MCAS acti-
> THE FAA IS EXAMINING MANUAL TRIM vation would be diagnosed quickly as runaway stabilizer and
OPERATION SCENARIOS be managed by following the appropriate checklist. When
the Lion Air crew did not respond in this way, Boeing and
> PROCEDURE’S NUANCES NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD the FAA decided a reminder of the runaway stabilizer pro-
cedure would suffice while Boeing was taking a few months
> STEPS ARE PART OF FINALIZING NEW TRAINING
to update the MCAS software. But the March 10, 2019, crash
REQUIRED FOR THE MAX’S RETURN
of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 was linked quickly to the
MCAS as well, leading to the grounding of the 387-aircraft
Sean Broderick Washington
MAX fleet and a deeper examination of where Boeing and
M
ost of the outstanding items on the Boeing 737 the FAA had gone wrong.
MAX’s return-to-service checklist relate to training Among the many findings: The complexity of the manual
and flight-deck procedures, and the detailed atten- trim-wheel procedure, which applies to all 737s, was not
tion they are receiving from the FAA is helping convince well understood. The new 737 training modules emphasize
pilots the agency and Boeing are, at last, on the right path. that pilots may need to use two hands to crank the wheel
“We started out with a very thin draft of new training,” during a runaway trim scenario. It also says “unloading”
says Dennis Tajer, chair of the Allied Pilots Association the stabilizer—attempting to reduce airspeed and take the
Communications Committee and an American Airlines 737 counterintuitive step of not pulling back on the yoke even
captain. “We now have four or five really good modules.” though the aircraft is trimmed nose down—may be neces-
The most recent sary to move the
COLLINS AEROSPACE
draft modules in- trim wheel.

clude detailed in- While the up-
formation on the dated manual-trim
Maneuvering Char- procedures are
acteristics Aug- an improvement,
mentation System pilots want even
(MCAS) flight-con- more detailed in-
trol law that Boeing YOKE-MOUNTED TRIM SWITCHES formation. In June,
has modified. The the FAA conduct-
training explains ed tests to quantify
the MCAS’ role— STAB TRIM CUTOUT SWITCHES how different air-
commanding nose- speed and trim set-
down stabilizer to tings affect manual
enhance pitch and trim wheel forces,
stall characteris- and is expected to
tics by providing share the results
increasing stick The cutout switches disconnect the yoke-mounted trim control, leaving the as part of addi-
force per G during manual trim wheel for moving the horizontal stabilizer. tional information
certain flight pro- 737 pilots will be
files—as well as demonstrates how the updated flight-control reveiving as a result of the MAX-related return-to-service
computer (FCC) software prevents the system from activat- evaluations.
ing when it should not. The tests are part of several areas outside of the MCAS
Among the key outstanding items: validating emergen- changes that regulators mandated Boeing institute before
cy procedures during a runaway stabilizer, which is how the MAX is cleared to return to service.
Boeing characterizes an unintended MCAS activation. A “[It is] night and day on the number of areas that they are
last-ditch recovery step is cutting power to the stabilizer seeking to improve” compared to Boeing’s initial proposed
trim motors and using the 737’s manual trim wheels to move MCAS changes soon after JT610, says Tajer. “That’s good.
the stabilizer. But it didn’t come without prodding and pushing from pilots.
Many pilots were surprised to discover that aerodynamic We have to look at what else can we do better.”
forces created during a runaway stabilizer condition can The timing of the MAX’s return remains unclear. The
render the trim wheel nearly impossible to move. If one pilot FAA still is waiting for Boeing to submit its final package
is pulling back on the yoke—a natural reaction to counteract detailing the changes. A Joint Operations Evaluation Board
uncommanded nose-down inputs—the force on the elevator, report, composed of the FAA Flight Standardization Board
part of the horizontal stabilizer, increases. This makes the (FSB) team and representatives from Brazil, Canada and
stabilizer harder to move. Add in an airspeed increase that Europe, still must evaluate training needs. The FSB is ex-
a nose-down attitude introduces and the situation becomes pected to issue a report on the minimum training curricu-
more challenging. lum, which will have a 30-day public comment period. The
This is what both flight crews faced in two fatal MAX FAA also will review all final design documentation, as will
accidents. Prior to the first one, Lion Air Flight 610 (JT610) the Technical Advisory Board of independent experts ad-
in October 2018, pilots did not know the MCAS existed. vising the agency. c
TM
PRATT & WHITNEY GTF ENGINES

GAIN MARKET MOMENTUM
Pratt & Whitney continues to see strong orders and a Current in-service engine performance has more than
growing network of customers for its revolutionary lived up to the GTF’s early promise. Since entering the
Geared Turbofan™ (GTF) engine family. Recent wins market, GTF engines have compiled more than 3.7 million
add to the GTF order book, which now totals more than engine revenue hours and demonstrated an ability
10,000 engine orders and commitments with more than to reduce fuel burn by 16 to 20%, saving customers a
80 customers. Several of these airlines have also signed staggering 200 million gallons of fuel, totaling $375 million
multi-year contracts for Pratt & Whitney’s EngineWise® in savings to date. The GTF also significantly reduces
Comprehensive service agreements, dedicated to sharing regulated emissions, which has led to 1.9 million metric
the company’s engine expertise and fleet intelligence with tonnes of carbon emissions avoided so far, and lowers
customers so they can optimize engine performance and the noise footprint by 75%. Engines in service are saving
keep their operations running smoothly. approximately 100 gallons of fuel and reducing CO2
emissions by one metric ton per flight hour.
The most recent deliveries continue to add to the ever-
growing commercial fleet, which now totals more than 550 The GTF’s performance is having a significant impact
GTF-powered aircraft across 40 operators since the engine on how and where airlines fly. For example, the engine’s
entered service in 2016. This September, the Embraer impressive reduction in fuel burn allows operators the
E195-E2 aircraft, the largest in the E-Jets E2 family, was ability to open new markets, creating options for routes
delivered to Azul Brazilian Airlines, leased through AerCap. that didn’t exist before and making more point-to-point
destinations available to the flying public.
GTF orders during the last 12 months include JetSMART’s
selection of the GTF engine for its order of 85 A320neo Game-changing technologies
family aircraft; Delta Air Lines’ additional order for a total
of 95 exclusively GTF-powered A220 aircraft; E195-E2 set the GTF apart from its
orders from KLM Cityhopper (up to 35), exclusively competition. The engine’s
powered by the GTF engine; SMBC Aviation Capital’s
order of 20 additional GTF-powered A320neo family revolutionary architecture
aircraft and Aviation Capital Group’s order of up to allows for further evolution
20 additional GTF-powered A320neo family aircraft. and performance enhancements.
Aircraft powered by GTF engines have been delivered
on six continents over the past year, including the first The company invested more than 20 years and $10B
Airbus A220 aircraft to African operators Air Tanzania and in the engine, maturing new technologies that enable
EgyptAir; the first Airbus A321neo aircraft to Hungarian its impressive results. To meet the production demands
carrier Wizz Air, Vietnam Airlines and Philippines-based of a historic engine ramp, Pratt & Whitney has invested
Cebu Pacific; the first Airbus A320neo aircraft to Chinese in its 21st century, global production facilities to deliver
airline Air Macau, leased through BOC Aviation; the Airbus its products quicker and with the highest quality. Along
A320neo family aircraft to Air New Zealand; the first Airbus with its MRO network partners, the company is investing
A320neo aircraft to Chilean operator JetSMART; the first millions to increase maintenance capability to support
Airbus A321neoLR aircraft to Canadian airline Air Transat, the in-service fleet.
leased through AerCap; the Airbus A220 and A320neo
aircraft to U.S. operators Delta Air Lines and JetBlue; and
the first E190-E2 to Switzerland-based Helvetic Airways. Find out more about Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engines at https://pwgtf.com.
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
BOEING
Widebody Market Weakness Shows
Signs of Permanent Structural Change
> AIRBUS AND BOEING WITNESS

WIDEBODY MARKET WEAKNESS
> A321XLR SALES SUCCESS
HURTS OTHER PROGRAMS
Etihad Airways ordered 25 Boeing 777Xs in 2013
Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Michael Bruno Washington but has cut back on its aggressive expansion.
W
hen Boeing happily announced a seemingly big new where: Boeing recorded 277 firm gross orders for the 777X
widebody order at the recent Dubai Airshow, it was in 2014, its last big-selling year for the aircraft. It would have
well worth looking at the small print—because it been only 127 without the Emirates commitment and only
was neither big nor new. 42 without somewhat smaller deals with Qatar Airways and
Boeing simply converted part of an earlier commitment for Etihad Airways.
150 777Xs to include some much smaller 787-9s. And when While air transport has continued to grow impressively
Airbus announced a United Airlines deal for 50 A321XLRs over the past five years, only now slowing its rate of expan-
that shocked its competitor earlier this month, the European sion, much of the growth has been driven by short-haul and
manufacturer also had to make major, painful concessions: It low-cost carriers. Trade tensions and disputes have damp-
allowed United to defer an order for 45 A350s by five years. ened international business travel. The only certainty of the
The two arrangements, future iterations of which could short-to-medium-term outlook is its uncertainty. To add to
well turn out even worse for the manufacturers, are symp- the troubles, the transition process from the A330 to the
toms of the same malady: Widebody demand in general is A330neo and from the 777 to the 777X has been much slower
weak. The weakness affects the industry’s most modern than Airbus and Boeing had hoped.
products, including the A350, the Boeing 787 and the 777X. Airbus has received 157 net orders for the A350-900 in five
And while both OEMs have for some time taken comfort in years, supposedly its highest-volume widebody program. The
the perceived security of this being a temporary slowdown, larger -1000 recorded just 18 net orders those same years.
there are now very serious indica- Surprisingly, the A330neo program
tions that they must instead deal Key Widebody Programs has been by far the best-selling
with a structural shift that leaves Airbus widebody in the past five
them massively exposed, with pro-
Combined Net Orders, 2014-19* years when cancellations are taken
grams yet to be amortized over long Airbus into account. Its net orders stand at
periods and based on calculations A330 178 299 from January 2014 to Novem-
that may need adjusting. ber 2019. The first-generation A330
Several things are happening si- A330neo 299 came second at 178 net orders. All
multaneously. Airlines are discover- A350-900 157 the outstanding A380 orders have
ing they can soon operate narrow- been canceled as a result of the ter-
bodies, namely the A321XLR, on a A350-1000 18 mination of the program in 2021.
substantial part of their long-haul A380 -55 The Boeing side is not much differ-
networks at much lower capital ex- ent. The company has seen a drizzle
Boeing
penditure and economic risk. Airbus of orders for the 747-8F, with a large
says it has orders and commitments 747-8/747-8F 35 UPS order extending the life of the
for more than 400 of the aircraft 767 141 program by some years. However,
since the launch at the 2019 Paris it appears unlikely that more com-
Air Show. The combined net order 787-8 -19 mitments will come through in time
intake for Airbus and Boeing wide- 787-9 371 for Boeing to be able to sustain pro-
body models for the past two years duction. Nevertheless, the venerable
stands at 407 aircraft—122 at Airbus 787-10 55 767 has received a decent number of
and 285 for Boeing. Net orders are 777-300ER 123 orders that sustains production, and
the number of new orders minus Boeing has launched a study into the
cancellations in a given time period. 777X 249 possibility of reengining the aircraft.
Second, the big three Gulf carriers *Through November 2019 Both the 777 and 787 are victims of
are no longer providing the kind of Note: Net orders = new orders minus cancellations changes in strategy by some of their
shelter from market weakness else- Sources: Boeing, Airbus and Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery biggest customers, mainly the Gulf
carriers. Etihad has effectively canceled most commitments cantly and hence depress A350 profitability,” Agency Partners
placed at the 2013 Dubai Airshow and is placing brand-new analyst Sash Tusa writes. He believes Airbus will be forced
A350-1000s that it could not cancel into long-term storage. to cut A350 production in late 2022 and go to below seven
Emirates finally confirmed its 787 order, but at the expense of aircraft per month from 2024 if nothing material changes.
parts of the 2013 777X order. The carrier is expected to take The success of the A321XLR has had a dampening effect
about 20% fewer aircraft, and Etihad is seeking ways to cancel not only on current widebodies but also on Boeing’s proposed
its commitment for 25 aircraft entirely. The airline had already new midmarket airplane (NMA), which is conceived as the
cut 20 787s from its backlog of 51, much like it had reduced new smallest widebody. “Airbus sales of the A321XLR seem to
its A350 order from 62 to just 20 aircraft earlier this year. doom [the NMA],” Bloomberg Intelligence says in a Decem-
In 2019, Boeing has had more 777X cancellations than or- ber report. “The smaller size of narrowbodies allows service
ders. There were no orders for the 777X in 2018 and only 30 between smaller cities, which might make larger aircraft
combined in 2015-17. The 185 orders for the 777-9 and 35 for dilutive to fares and profits,” Bloomberg’s George Ferguson
the 777-8 recorded for 2014 were all from Gulf carriers. and Francois Duflot write. “They also provide the flexibility to
The 787 has been Boeing’s volume widebody program for switch to many different city pairs, improving airline agility.”
a number of years. But a deeper look at the models reveals Any new Boeing narrowbody likely would be designed
the relative success has been almost entirely due to the 787-9. around a higher passenger capacity, roughly 200 seats, and
On a net basis, Boeing lost 19 787-8 orders over the last five probably include a variant that could go beyond the range of
years. It received 55 net orders for the 787-10 and 371 orders the A321XLR. Ferguson and Duflot say the soonest a replace-
for the 787-9 since 2014. ment could be ready is likely the latter 2020s, with develop-
The uncertainty is also growing. Agency Partners esti- ment approaching $10 billion. “We believed all along that any
mates about one-third of the A350 backlog is looking shaky, NMA would be wrapped up in a redesigned narrowbody, so
as it includes carriers such as Iran Air and Libyan Airlines the MAX grounding may have only pushed back the timing,”
that may never take the aircraft. The analysts also believe they say.
“it is increasingly likely that United will eventually cancel its Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg Konrad con-
A350 order.” The commitment, placed nine years ago, has cur. “Boeing has yet to decide on a potential NMA, but the
been changed multiple times in terms of numbers, types and grounding of the 737 MAX could potentially shelve any decision
timing. Now United is one of the airlines sending clear mes- as well as the difficulty of creating the economics that aircraft
sages to the market that it sees a major opportunity in long- want at the target price,” they note in a December report. c
haul narrowbody operations, given that it has identified the
A321XLR as a suitable replacement for its aging 757-200 fleet.
The consequences for the manufacturers are severe.
Boeing is already reducing 787 output to 12 aircraft per month
from 14. The transition from the 777 to the 777X now looks
like a much more lengthy process because of engine and other
development issues, with first deliveries to Lufthansa and
Emirates pushed into 2021. That only nine customers have
bought the 777X and no lessors have come forward could
indicate airlines’ angst about operating large aircraft such
as the 747-8 and the A380 is also affecting the large twins.
Over the summer, Boeing began warning suppliers, inves-
tors and others that escalating trade tensions between the
U.S. and China—its largest single market—would threaten
prospective aircraft sales, particularly those of the lucrative
twinjet 777 and 787 families (AW&ST Sept. 30-Oct. 13, p. 39).
According to a December Jefferies report, widebodies have
a 29% share of the domestic Chinese market, representative
of long-distance flights within its borders. Indeed, across
Asia it is common for short-haul routes to operate both nar-
rowbodies and widebodies, such as the Sapporo-Tokyo and
Fukuoka-Tokyo routes in Japan, where both the Boeing 777 and
737 NGs are operated. On a flight basis, the top 25 routes for
widebodies have an average distance of 917 nm, Jefferies says.
But as the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 economies struggle to
reach just a “Phase 1” trade truce, relief in the form of re-
sumed Chinese orders appears far away. When Boeing in Oc-
tober announced its 787 rate cut to 12 a month will start in
“late 2020,” the move was surprising only in that it beat many
analysts’ prediction that a reduction was due by 2021 at least.
Airbus has just completed its initial production ramp-up of
the A350 to 10 aircraft per month and has decided not to go
higher, given market uncertainties. “The emerging gap in the
A350 skyline worryingly mirrors that for the Boeing 787 and
suggests that pricing for new orders could deteriorate signifi-
SUSTAINABILITY
Electric Progress
> ELECTRIC BEAVER CERTIFICATION ANTICIPATED IN 2022
> PARTNERS PLAN TO ELECTRIFY OTHER AIRCRAFT TYPES
Graham Warwick
A
63-year-old aircraft, a 37-year- electrify its commercial seaplane fleet proven for flight, have a relatively
old airline and a 10-year-old beginning in 2022—which includes low energy density. “While perhaps
startup came together on Beavers, de Havilland Canada DHC-3T not the most power-dense, these are
Dec. 10 in Vancouver to close the de- Turbo Otters and DHC-6 Twin Otters. good enough to start small-scale oper-
cade with an aviation milestone—the Distinguished by its reshaped nose ations with short ranges of up to half
first flight of an all-electric commer- housing the direct-drive motor and an hour,” says Ganzarski.
cial aircraft. a new Hartzell four-blade propeller, Certification will have two phases,
The modified de Havilland Canada the prototype has a cabin full of lithi- says McDougall. “In Step 1, MagniX
DHC-2 Beaver, powered by a 560-kW um-ion batteries. Taking the aircraft will certify the components under the
(750-hp) MagniX electric motor, made to its maximum gross weight, the FAA. Once that is complete, Step 2 is
a 4-min. flight from Harbour Air’s sea- batteries provide enough energy for for us to certify the installation under
plane terminal on the Fraser River a 15-min. flight with a 25-min. reserve. Transport Canada,” he says. “Once
adjacent to Vancouver International “When trading the weight of the we are certified, the installation can
Airport. standard engine and fuel system with be used on all Beavers globally. We
The Beaver is not the first elec- the Magni500 propulsion system and also intend to certify the installation
tric-powered aircraft by far, but those batteries, the trade-off becomes range,” on several other aircraft types.”
flown previously have been either says MagniX CEO Roei Ganzarski. “In- The Magni500 propulsion system
all-electric light aircraft or general stead of the standard 455 mi. a Beaver is planned to be certified under Part
aviation types modified to hybrid-elec- can do on a full tank of fuel, the electric 33 regulations, says Ganzarski. The
tric propulsion. The Beaver is part of Beaver is limited to 100 mi. It fits Har- Beaver modification will be a supple-
the fleet at Harbour Air, the largest bour Air’s operations, as most of their mental type certificate under the lat-
seaplane airline in North America. flights are within that range profile.” est Part 23 Amendment 64 rules. “We
“Today, we made history,” said The 297-lb. motor was derated to estimate completing all certification
Greg McDougall, CEO and founder of 450 hp to match the Beaver’s original in 2022,” says McDougall.
Harbour Air, an 8,000-hr. Beaver pilot engine. But Harbour Air’s longer-term The electric-powered Otter is
who flew the battery-powered aircraft focus is on repowering its workhorse, expected to have at least 30 min. of
on its short first flight. The modified the larger Otter, which has a Pratt & flight time—enough for most of Har-
aircraft was noticeably quieter than Whitney PT6A turboprop and will use bour Air’s island and coastal routes—
the piston-engine original. the full 750-hp output of the MagniX plus a 30-min. reserve. Every 1 min.
The 1956-built Beaver’s Pratt & motor as well as house the batteries of flight will require 1 min. of battery
Whitney radial engine had been re- in the belly area. recharging using a Tesla-style super-
placed with MagniX’s Magni500 motor The batteries, used by NASA in charger, which fits within the airline’s
under Harbour Air’s ePlane project to space applications and considered turnaround times.
A modified Beaver completed
its first flight on electric
propulsion in Vancouver.
HARBOUR AIR
Flying more than 500,000 passen-

gers a year on 30,000 flights in the
environmentally conscious Pacific
Northwest, Harbour Air bills itself as
North America’s first carbon-neutral
airline. Since 2007, the airline has off-
set carbon emissions from aviation fuel
used through an agreement with local
company Offsetters Climate Solutions.
Founded in Australia in 2009 to
develop advanced electric motors,
MagniX relocated its headquarters
in 2018 to Redmond, Washington,
to focus on aircraft propulsion. The
company’s first motor is the 260-kW
Magni250, which is an option to pow-
er Israeli startup Eviation’s Alice, an
all-electric, 11-seat regional aircraft
that uses three motors. Go beyond the news of the day
MagniX and Eviation are both with Aviation Week Intelligence
ow n e d by b i l l i o n a i re R i c h a rd Network’s Market Briefings.
Chandler’s Singapore-based invest-
ment company Clermont Group. The
These sector-specific intelligence
prototype Alice is expected to fly in
briefings empower busy executives
2020 at Moses Lake, Washington,
where aerospace engineering com- to stay-ahead of the market, identify
pany AeroTEC operates a flight-test opportunities and drive revenue.
center. MagniX is also teamed with
AeroTEC to modify a Cessna 208B
LEARN MORE:
Caravan to electric propulsion, with
aviationweek.com/marketbriefings
the Magni500 motor replacing a PT6A
turboprop. The electric Caravan is
planned to fly early in 2020. c
SPACE
Rocket Lab, Wallops Island Spaceport well as to the unwavering support

of our local suppliers,” says Shaun
Expect Big U.S. Launch Growth D’Mello, Rocket Lab’s vice president
for launch.
> ROCKET LAB TO LAUNCH USAF STP-27RM MISSION BY SPRING It helps that LC2 is almost a copy of
LC1—on New Zealand’s Mahia Penin-
> MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL SPACEPORT IN TALKS TO BRING IN MORE sula—except for specialized ground-
COMMERCIAL LAUNCHERS ing due to the different geology of
Virginia’s eastern shore. “We designed
Michael Bruno Wallops Island, Virginia LC1 to be easily deployable to other
sites,” Beck says.
R
ocket Lab looks set to loft as as well as the accelerated construc- Electrons launched from LC2 still
many as a dozen small-satellite tion time frame. Construction began will be built in Huntington Beach,
payloads a year into low Earth in February; the site was operational California, at the company’s headquar-
orbit (LEO) for the U.S. government just 10 months later. More than 150 ters—as they are before being shipped
starting in early 2020—including on local construction workers and con- to LC1. Rocket Lab representatives
short notice—as the Electron rocket tractors were involved, with many say they do not expect to alter their
maker unveils its inaugural launch Virginia-based companies supplying supply chain or manufacturing system
plans from its new spaceport home. services, hardware and materials. with the new Virginia spaceport site,
“We’re ready to support on a call-up Locally built infrastructure includes a although there could be as many local
basis at the drop of a notice,” Rock- 66-ton launch platform and the 7.6-ton launch suppliers for LC2 as the 300
et Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck strongback for the Electron launch for LC1.
says. “It’s great to have a U.S.-based vehicle, supplied by Virginia-based In addition to the launchpad itself,
launch site to service U.S. customers company Steel America. LC2 will also be home to an integration
on U.S. soil.” “The fact that we have an opera- and control facility located within the
Speaking to Aviation Week during tional launch site less than a year after Wallops Research Park for processing
a ribbon-cutting ceremony on Dec. 12 construction began is a testament to payloads and Electron launch vehicles
for Launch Complex 2 (LC2), the com- the hard work and dedication of the prior to liftoff.
pany’s newest launch facility at the Virginia Space and NASA teams, as The company says LC2 is tailored
Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport
(MARS), Beck and other officials from
the U.S. Air Force, NASA and Virginia
Space were visibly pleased with their
achievement. At the ceremony, exec-
utives and officials confirmed the in-
augural mission from the site will be
a dedicated flight for the Air Force in
the spring.
“Rocket Lab’s launch site at the
Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at
Wallops Island, Virginia, strengthens
the United States’ ability to provide
U.S. Air Force, NASA and Virginia

Space representatives are joined
by a Rocket Lab team, led by founder
and CEO Peter Beck (center left), at
the new U.S. launch complex.
responsive and reliable access to

space,” said Col. Robert Bongiovi,
director of the Air Force Space and
Missile Systems Center’s Launch En-
terprise. “We look forward to Rocket
Lab successfully launching the STP-
27RM mission from Launch Complex
2 next spring, which will test new
capabilities that we will need in the
future.”
Rocket Lab selected MARS for LC2
about a year ago due to the wide or-
bital inclinations the site can support
ROCKET LAB
specifically for U.S. government mis- As such, Virginia Space officials are active, in-development or proposed
sions to provide responsive launch for in discussions with several other com- spaceports compared to its nearest
small satellites from U.S. soil. It can panies, he says. There is room for 2-4 competitor, Russia, which has five ac-
support up to 12 missions per year, more launch providers at MARS, on tive sites and no new known ones in
supplementing the 120 launches pos- top of Northrop Grumman and now development. China is third with four
sible from LC1, which will remain ded- Rocket Lab. “That still leaves a fair active spaceports.
icated to commercial sector business. amount of capability,” Nash notes. ■ In 2018, with 198 spacecraft
A Dec. 12 report from Frost & Sulli- NASA’s environmental study for launched, the U.S. averaged 5.8 space-
van forecasts a total number of 20,425 MARS covers up to six launchpads, craft per launch. Russia, with 60
satellites that will be launched through but since 0A and 0B are so close to spacecraft put in orbit, averaged 3.8
2033, with North America leading each other, their impact counts as spacecraft per launch. China delivered
the way, followed by Europe. “Such one. Northrop Grumman uses 0A for 105 payloads to space, averaging 2.6
demand could take the small-satel- its Antares rockets that loft Cygnus spacecraft per launch.
lite launch services market past the cargo ships to the International Space ■ In the last decade, according to
$28 billion mark by 2030 and pres- Station (ISS). Rocket Lab’s LC2 will NASA’s Ames Research Center, com-
ent significant growth opportunities use 0B for its Electron. Together, mercial rocket development has re-
throughout the industry,” the consul- the companies envision around 14 duced the typical space launch cost
tancy writes in the December report. launches a year, most of which would by a factor of 20 while NASA’s launch
Frost anticipates high-volume de- be Electrons. cost to the ISS has declined by a factor
mand for component manufacturers, However, the competition is hot, of four.
dedicated launch service providers according to the Space Foundation’s ■ The average price per kilogram for
and low-cost ground-station services. fourth-quarter 2019 issue of The Space a launch prior to 2000 was $18,500. In
The growth also bodes well for Report, published the same day as the 2018, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket price
the spaceport business, especially Wallops ceremony. According to the per kilogram to launch a payload into
front-runners like MARS. report: LEO was $2,719.
More new-space launch providers ■ Around the world, there are 40 ac- ■ With three U.S. spaceports alone,
could make the MARS site their home, tive spaceports—10 in development state investment in New Mexico,
Virginia Space CEO and Executive Di- and at least 13 proposed. Virginia and California totals $455
rector Dale Nash tells Aviation Week. ■ The U.S. has five times as many million. c
Air Force Space Policy Guru Loverro

Tackles NASA Human Spaceflight
> REASSESSMENT OF SLS COST AND SCHEDULE ARE UNDERWAY
> HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT TAKES HALF OF NASA’S BUDGET
Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral
L
ike many children growing up trator for human exploration and op-
during the Apollo Moon pro- erations (HEO).
gram, Douglas Loverro wanted “This is the pleasure and excitement
to become an astronaut. In 1972, he of my career,” Loverro told employees
headed off to the U.S. Air Force Acad- during an agency-wide town hall meet-
emy to pursue his dream. ing the following day. “I could not have
Loverro ended up on a different passed this up. . . . The things we do in
path, developing and managing Air space affect the entire world. I’m not
Force and National Reconnaissance sure I’m ready for this challenge yet,
Office space programs, including mil- but I have a great team at HEO.”
itary satellite communications, the Loverro will need to hit the ground
GPS network and classified space running. Three human spaceflight pro-
systems. In 2013, Loverro was tapped grams in development for a decade are
by President Barack Obama as depu- scheduled to reach critical milestones
ty assistant secretary of defense for in the next few months. Boeing is
space policy. poised for an uncrewed trial run of the
After 45 years of government ser- CST-100 Starliner to the International
vice, Loverro in 2017 became a private Space Station (ISS), with the launch
consultant, but that gig did not last scheduled Dec. 20.
long: On Dec. 2, he started working at SpaceX is expected to follow Jan. 4
NASA as the new associate adminis- with a Crew Dragon inflight abort
SPACE
demonstration. If those uncrewed treat funding just like any other issue SLS block buys. Negotiations for the
flight tests go well, both companies that comes up in the program. We’re third SLS core stage with prime con-
will be in position for flight tests to the going to have technical, engineering tractor Boeing are underway.
ISS with astronauts in early 2020, the and science issues—issues across the Loverro, like Bridenstine, is stead-
first orbital spaceflights from the U.S. board—and funding is one of those. We fast about sticking with SLS and Orion
with humans since the space shuttles can’t let that be the single determinant for the Artemis Moon program, but ac-
were retired in 2011. Operational ISS of success.” knowledges launchers in development
crew-rotation missions will follow— NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, by SpaceX, Blue Origin and other com-
possibly before the end of 2020—after who shared the stage with his new as- panies may end up taking on more of
analysis, certifications and reviews. sociate administrator, stepped in to NASA’s heavy lifting.
Meanwhile, the long-delayed core reply to employees’ thornier questions “The fact of the matter is the only
booster for the Space Launch System such as why he replaced Loverro’s long- system we have today that has been
(SLS) rocket—designed to carry 77 time and highly respected predecessor, designed specifically to get men and
tons (70 metric tons) into low Earth Bill Gerstenmaier. “It was time, in my women to the Moon is the SLS. That
orbit—is due to ship out from NASA’s view, to find a leader who had a long program is absolutely mandatory in
Michoud Assembly Facility in New Or- history of making programs run on my view right now,” Loverro said. “We
leans in late December for a full-dura- schedule and on budget,” Bridenstine have a long plan for exploration that
tion static test-firing next year at the
JOEL KOWSKY/NASA
Stennis Space Flight Center in Missis-
sippi. One of Loverro’s first decisions
will be to set a new launch date for the
SLS debut mission, which is expected
to send an uncrewed Orion capsule on
a test flight around the Moon. Official-
ly, the mission, known as Artemis 1, is
on the books for December 2021.
Loverro also will be challenged
to figure out ISS staffing during any
gap between the end of flight-service
contracts with Russia’s state space
corporation Roscosmos and the start
of rides aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon
and Boeing’s Starliner.
And then there is Artemis and the
multibillion-dollar effort to expedite by
four years the first human landing on
the Moon since the last Apollo lunar
mission in 1972, the year Loverro re-
ceived his bachelor’s degree in chem-
istry from the Air Force Academy.
Loverro will help form the Trump
administration’s fiscal 2021 budget re- Doug Loverro began work Dec. 2 as NASA’s associate administrator for human
quest, due to be unveiled in February, exploration and operations.
as well as spearhead the effort for an
initial $1.6 billion this year to kick off said. “I think Doug is that kind of lead- will require us to utilize the best U.S.
commercial partnership agreements er, not to take anything away from Bill industry can provide. Certainly we
for development of human-class lunar Gerstenmaier.” will make decisions along the way as
landing systems. Loverro will have an early oppor- to what makes most sense as devel-
Overall, NASA’s human spaceflight tunity to test his management mettle. opments of all of those systems come
programs account for about half of The SLS and Orion programs, which forward.”
the agency’s current $21 billion annu- already have cost taxpayers more than He added: “Part of being a leader
al budget. $30 billion, will need additional fund- is being willing to admit that we have
“We can’t use funding as the crutch ing to cover development, flight test to change the plan. I think we’ve got a
upon which we say we can’t make and production costs. An October good plan. I think we will find elements
the objectives that we’ve been asked letter from the Office of Management of the plan that have to be changed.
[to achieve],” Loverro said during a and Budget to Senate Appropriations “We will find comments from outsid-
question-and-answer session at the Committee Chairman Richard Shelby ers that are critical to incorporate and,
town hall meeting. “Our job is to cre- (R-Ala.) pegged the price of an SLS to quite frankly, I invite those. My job for
ate the vision that allows us to get to fly a spacecraft to Jupiter’s moon Eu- the next three months is to examine
the Moon. To convince Congress that ropa at $2 billion. all of those things, to figure out where
the program is worth supporting is one Bridenstine said he expects costs to we are in the baseline of the program
thing, [but] we’re not going to get every be much less, perhaps in the $800-900 and what we need to change and raise,
dollar we ask for every year. We have to million range if the agency can make even more, our chances of success.” c
SPACE
ESA Gathers Record measures NO2 emissions, but its service life is expected to
end in 2024.
Multiyear Funding A cloud imager will “mask out” the clouds, as CO2 mea-
surement works only in a cloud-free atmosphere.
> CO2 EMISSION MONITORING IS A MAJOR FOCUS The excess funds will also help bring forward the Coper-
nicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission for the Environment
> ESA BOLSTERS INVOLVEMENT IN NASA-LED (CHIME). It was planned to fly in the early 2030s, but users
MOON PROGRAM would rather see it in service from 2027-28, says Aschbacher.
CHIME is expected to provide a variety of data, from crop-
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France yield assessment to estimating carbon storage in soils and
mineral mapping.
T
he resounding success of the European Space Agency Cooperation in exploration programs with NASA and other
(ESA) at its triennial ministerial council is further ev- agencies received strong support. Funding for the Interna-
idence of Europe’s new emphasis on space, indicating tional Space Station (ISS) has been confirmed until 2030.
that the industry’s consistent plea for increased budgets has ESA will contribute €300 million to the Lunar Gateway,
convinced politicians. starting with a communications system. It will complement
The ESA’s 22 member states have agreed to fund the or- other devices, thus enabling simultaneous data transmission
ganization’s activities for a record €14.4 billion ($16 billion) between the Gateway and Earth as well as between the Gate-
over five years, slightly higher than the initial proposal, thus way and the Moon’s surface.
securing current programs and paving the way for more. In return, Frank De Winne, ESA’s ISS operations and as-
The European Union (EU) is poised to increase its space tronaut group leader, expects scientific cooperation and ESA
budget and the European Commission (EC) now has a ded- astronaut flights to the Moon’s surface—as hinted recently
icated directorate-general for defense, industry and space. by NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine and ESA Director
The sector is increasingly seen as critical. The EC is pro- General Jan Woerner.
posing a €16.2 billion ($18 billion) budget for 2021-27, up from ESA intends to participate in a Mars sample-return mission.
€11 billion for 2014-20. In 2026-28, an ESA-made “fetcher” vehicle, equipped with a
robotic arm, is planned to be launched
The Copernicus Earth-observation program will provide along with a NASA-made small launch-
more accurate CO2 emission monitoring. er. The fetcher would collect samples
NASA’s Mars 2020 mission will have
packed. The small launcher would carry
the parcel into Mars’ orbit and rendez-
vous with an ESA-made Earth-return
orbiter. The samples would land on
Earth in the early 2030s, says De Winne.
Overall, the “exploration” budget has
increased by 30%, at €1.95 billion over
three years.
In the “enabling and support” pillar,
the Space Rider reusable spaceplane
program was launched. The unmanned
spacecraft’s outlines include an 800-kg
(1,800-lb.) payload and the ability to fly
six times. ESA says it could be used for
experiments in microgravity, in-orbit
technology demonstration for appli-
ESA
cations such as exploration robotics,

Decisions for ESA (an organization independent from Earth observation, telecommunications and satellite inspec-
the EU) were made at a Nov. 27-28 council at the ministerial tions. Studies have been launched for future launchers: Ariane
level in Seville, Spain. One of the winners was the Copernicus 6’s upgrades and its successor.
Earth-observation program. Oversubscribed at €1.9 billion A new pillar has appeared in ESA’s activities—safety and
instead of the proposed €1.4 billion over three years, the extra security. At €541 million, it received less than the hoped-for
funding will facilitate improved performance. ESA runs the €900 million. Nevertheless, Woerner expressed satisfaction
space segment of Copernicus, an EU program. at seeing issues such as space debris becoming part of the
CO2 emissions will be more accurately monitored, with a agenda (AW&ST Dec. 2-9, p. 22).
resolution target of 2 X 2-km (1.2 X 1.2-mi.) squares. Swath A €100 million mission—cofunded by private investors—is
will be increased by 50%, to roughly 300 km, says Josef being devised. A startup company has been chosen, and its
Aschbacher, director of Earth-observation programs. objective is to remove a 100-kg ESA object from low Earth
One instrument, the multiangle polarimeter, will mea- orbit by 2025. ESA expects to sign a service procurement
sure nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions. “It is an indicator of contract in 2020. The demonstration will aim to show regu-
human activities and therefore helps distinguish [at a giv- lators a technology is available.
en location] natural from anthropogenic CO2 emissions,” Germany now ranks first as the main contributor to ESA’s
Aschbacher explains. The Sentinel-5B satellite currently budget, followed by France, Italy and the UK. c
SIMULATION AND TRAINING
U.S. Military Leaders Seek initiative in February 2018 to explore ways to decrease the
time and cost, but not the effectiveness, of pilot training by
Open-Source Simulation applying technologies including virtual and augmented real-
ity, artificial intelligence and data analytics.
> SIMULATION STANDARDIZATION IS A GOAL PTN also seeks to broaden the pool of pilot candidates by
selecting participants from different learning backgrounds.
> CHINA SINGLED OUT AS GREATEST RIVAL The first class of 13 students included officers and enlisted
airmen; the second class of 14 included students from the
Bill Carey Orlando, Florida Navy and UK Royal Air Force. Jacobson said the effort to
expand the candidate pool continues.
S
enior U.S. military leaders exhorted companies to de- “We’re not quite sure what scales for that yet, nor do we
velop integrated, standardized training and simulation have necessarily a standard set of technology across all the
systems to help them maintain fighting proficiency bases,” Jacobson said. “There is still a ways to go before we
against other world powers—namely China—during the in- can reduce the training time and improve the quality of the
dustry’s largest annual conference. product that gets to the next level of the U.S. Air Force.”
With numerous companies among the 480 exhibitors at Keeping true to the Pentagon’s “change at the speed of
the Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation and Educa- relevance” credo means capabilities cannot take decades to
tion Conference (I/ITSEC) displaying their own approaches be fielded, said Gen. Stephen Wilson, Air Force vice chief of
to creating interactive, “immersive” training environments, staff, who delivered the military keynote address at I/ITSEC.
military leaders called for technological unity. In a new era of great-power competition and with rapid
“Closed and propri- advancements in technol-
BILL CAREY/AW&ST
etary is not the way for- ogy, the U.S. can no lon-
ward for us,” said Maj. ger assume technological
Gen. James Jacobson, superiority over rivals,
U.S. Air Force director warned Wilson, devoting
of training and readi- the bulk of his remarks to
ness, during a senior the challenge presented
leaders panel Dec. 3. by China.
“We need to see open Last year, China pro-
and future-proof [sys- duced eight times the num-
tems] so that we can ber of science, technology,
integrate the changing engineering and mathe-
technologies.” matics (STEM) graduates
Future training de- as the U.S.; in five years,
vices should function the STEM advantage will
more like applications be 15:1, he said.
that work within a “They’re mastering
single synthetic envi- quantum computing in
ronment created from labs in Shanghai. They’re
common terrain, threat making huge strides in
and weather databases, Visitors to I/ITSEC try out the CAE Trax Academy virtual reality artificial intelligence, ma-
Jacobson said. chine vision, space and
cockpit trainer with headsets. hypersonic [technology],
“It isn’t one propri-
etary piece of equipment that stands alone and integrates just to name a few areas,” Wilson said. “China is all in to
part of the time; it’s an application that integrates through win. It’s an all-of-nation effort; it’s industry, it’s academia,
a standard synthetic environment with standard data, with it’s national labs, it’s military, it’s what they call ‘military-civil
standard threat models that every application uses,” said fusion.’ It would be a mistake to underestimate China.”
Jacobson. Training and simulation will play an integral role if the
Fred Drummond, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Air Force is to meet force connectedness, space dominance
force education and training, said live, virtual and construc- and other objectives identified in the National Defense
tive training environments should draw from a “one-world Strategy, Wilson said. Announced by then-Defense Secre-
geodatabase,” enabling Marine Corps helicopters to navigate tary James Mattis in January 2018, the joint services strat-
within an Army operation using the same geographic dataset, egy aims to restore the U.S. competitive edge by countering
for example. He further called for a one-world threat database Russia and China.
across ground, sea and subsea domains. Simulators of the future need to be integrated and con-
“My vision is we would see these databases as furnished nected across weapons systems, should replicate com-
equipment,” Drummond said. “I don’t care what equipment or bined-arms warfare in contested environments, and recreate
company produces the stuff—I just need the folks in uniform operations in denied and contested environments including
who are using these simulators working on the same data.” space, he said.
In January, the Air Force will start the third class of its “Individual weapons systems simulators can help our men
Pilot Training Next (PTN) experimental program without and women become proficient tacticians, but it’s their ability
settling on standard training equipment, noted Jacobson. The to integrate and connect that will differentiate us against a
service’s Air Education and Training Command launched the peer threat,” Wilson advised. c
A E R O S PA C E
& DEFENSE
2020
PRESSURE POINTS
AN EVENTFUL DECADE ENDS. ANOTHER BEGINS WITH THE PROMISE OF EVEN GREATER CHANGE.
Graham Warwick Washington
W
atched year by year, aerospace does not For most of the past decade, the U.S. has relied on Russia
appear to evolve that quickly. But look- to orbit its astronauts since retiring the space shuttle. That
ing back over a decade, the changes seem is set to change in 2020 when Boeing and SpaceX fly crew
profound. What transformations lie ahead in to the International Space Station, marking a new milestone
for a commercial space industry that has blossomed over
the new decade? the last 10 years.
Airbus launched the A320neo family in December 2010, When SpaceX flew the first Falcon 9 launch vehicle in
ushering in the age of the reengined narrowbody airliner. June 2010, it had only two successful Falcon 1 flights to its
A decade later it has booked 7,200 orders and delivered credit. Today, it has flown some 80 Falcon 9-family rockets,
more than 1,000 aircraft, with the success of the larger recovered almost 50 first stages and reflown them more
A321neo coupled with the 737 MAX grounding putting than 20 times. And it is no longer alone in the commercial
Boeing under unprecedented pressure. launch market.
Ten years ago, civil aviation entered the new decade with When the FAA rushed in the requirement to register
a global commitment to mitigate its growing carbon emis- drones in December 2015, ahead of a Christmas sales bo-
sions. But despite putting in place a CO2 standard for air- nanza, it had approved only a handful of commercial oper-
craft and an international offsetting scheme for airlines, it ations. By the end of decade, more than 1.5 million drones
ended the decade branded a villain of climate change. had been registered in the U.S., almost 420,000 of them for
Business plans and product strategies will be shaped by commercial use.
these pressures over the coming decade. Some airlines have This growth has been achieved within a regulatory frame-
already pledged to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, work that strictly constrains drone operations. Those limits
and there is a growing possibility that hybrid-electric region- are set to be widened early in the 2020s, unlocking potential
al aircraft will be flying short routes by the end of the decade. for operations such as medical transport, search-and-rescue
KEY INTEL SAFETY Aircraft certification draws BUSINESS AIRCRAFT
Data Web Galleries increased scrutiny because of the New models boost deliveries even
737 MAX: pages 88-89 as the long-term forecast continues
to edge downward: page 94
DEFENSE Global military SUSTAINABILITY The aviation
aircraft competitions and country- community responds to growing UNMANNED AIRCRAFT
by-country analyses of national emissions criticism: pages 90-92 The buzz around drone delivery, the
priorities, budgets and programs: Pentagon’s shifting needs and emerg-
pages 28-56 DATA CENTERS ing cargo UAVs: pages 68-69
Five-year delivery forecasts and
MILITARY AIRCRAFT key specification tables for combat VERTICAL FLIGHT Helicopter-
Challenges developing new-genera- and transport aircraft: pages 62-63; makers focus on completing devel-
tion fighters, transports and rotor- commercial and business aircraft: opment programs while the eVTOL
craft are presenting hard options: pages 98-99 market advances: pages 96-97
pages 57-61
AIR TRANSPORT SPACEFLIGHT The satellite
WEAPON SYSTEMS Reasons for concern lie behind an industry transitions to volume
The U.S. ramps up hypersonic optimistic forecast for global airline production; the commercial launch
strike-missile flight testing as profitability: pages 78-80; regional market dominates and diversifies:
attention shifts to countering outlooks: pages 100-109 pages 74-77
the new threats: pages 64-67
PROPULSION MRO Exploring the factors
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT Commercial engines ramping up, behind the forecast growth in main-
Return of the 737 MAX, rise of the the military market in flux and tenance, repair and overhaul as well
A321neo, wane of the widebody— electric propulsion advances: as commercial and military demand:
and what comes next? pages 82-86 pages 70-73 pages 110-127
missions and package delivery that promise potential so- limited fleet and move on to the next one. But Europe and
cietal benefit and commercial return. the UK plan to follow a more traditional path in developing
In 2011, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter entered its second sixth-generation fighters for fielding in 2030-40.
decade of development. Almost 10 years later, more than A decade ago, disruption was not a word often uttered
400 aircraft have been delivered to 11 customers. The F-35 in the C-suites of aerospace companies. Now, thanks to
has seen combat with four operators, but it has yet to com- SpaceX, it is a fact of life. Digitalization and digital twins,
plete operational testing and enter full-rate production. autonomy and artificial intelligence, electrified aircraft
With no appetite for another decades-long program, the propulsion, urban air mobility—looking back from the
U.S. Air Force plans to leverage advances in digital design vantage point of 2030, industry observers will llikely see
and manufacturing to reinvent how aircraft are created. the 2020s as yet another decade of dramatic change for
It wants to develop a new design in five years, produce a aerospace. c
Aerospace & Defense 2020 incorporates data from

the Aviation Week Intelligence Network. For more
information, visit awin.aviationweek.com
Contact Laurie Grossman at +1 (866) 857-0148
[+1 (847) 763-9147 outside North America] or
laurie.grossman@aviationweek.com
ANTHONY PECCHI/H.GOUSSE/AIRBUS
WATCHPOINTS
2020
From urban air taxis to hypersonic
strike missiles, here are some of the
aerospace and defense milestones
to look forward to in 2020.
Urban Planning
Uber, under its Elevate aerial ride-sharing initiative, remains committed
to conducting test flights with experimental eVTOL vehicles in 2020.
The tests, set to take place in Dallas, Los Angeles and Melbourne, Australia,
will be key to establishing the public acceptability of urban air taxis.
Transforming
Transportation
The viability of electric
short-haul air transport
Future Fighters will be put to the test
After difficult negotiations, France and Germany expect
in 2020 with flights of both
to sign an aircraft-demonstrator contract for the
retrofitted aircraft and new designs
Future Combat Air System in early 2020. Spain
such as Eviation’s 11-seat Alice.
has already joined the program, but Italy
And planned testing of Boom’s Mach
and Sweden have sided with the UK’s
2.2 XB-1 demonstrator will advance
Team Tempest, dividing European
the return of high-speed air travel.
fighter investment.
AIRBUS
HARBOUR AIR
Rebuilding Boeing
A critical year lies ahead for Boeing, one that includes returning the 737 MAX
to service and delivering hundreds of stored aircraft, beginning delayed flight
testing of the 777X and deciding whether to launch the new midmarket
airplane in the face of growing orders for Airbus’ A321XLR.
BOEING
VOLOCOPTER
BELL
Rotary Revival
In March 2020, the U.S. Army plans to select
two competitors from a field of five to build prototypes of its
Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft. The need is urgent, and the program is
fast-paced, with the flyoff set for 2023 and deliveries of the armed scout helicopter to begin in 2028.
Accessible Space
If final tests by Boeing and SpaceX
go as planned under NASA’s
Commercial Crew program,
U.S. astronauts will be
launched into orbit from
U.S. soil for the first time
in nine years. Meanwhile,
Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic
expect long-awaited suborbital
tourist flights to begin in 2020.
NASA
Rapid Response
U.S. hypersonic missile flight testing will
begin to ramp up in 2020 as it races to
catch up with the deployment of high-speed,
maneuverable strike weapons developed by
Russia and China. The tests will be crucial
to fielding U.S. air-, land- and sea-launched
boost-glide missiles beginning in late 2021.
RAYTHEON
Technology Trends
There are a bevy of technologies to watch in 2020 including: airliners flying in formation to save fuel and
reduce emissions; helicopters equipped to fly with zero, one or two crewmembers; laser weapons defending
air bases from drone attacks; and unmanned loyal wingmen teamed with manned combat aircraft.
BOEING
DEFENSE COMPETITIONS
U.S.
200+ FARA Helicopters
In 2020, the U.S. Army will select
two of five companies to make
prototypes of the Future Attack
Reconnaissance Aircraft, a long-range
fast and maneuverable rotorcraft.
THE WORLD’S HOTTEST

Colombia
18 Fighters
Colombian Air Force Matt Jouppi and Michael Tint Washington
O
ver the next decade, the world is going to purchase
10,335 new aircraft. While armed forces have re-
quirements for every type of aircraft, budgets and
politics often intervene, slowing or altogether stopping
plans to upgrade fleets and develop wholly new aircraft.
Nonetheless, opportunities abound—from international
competitions for new and used fighter aircraft to the U.S.
effort to develop a Future Armed Reconnaissance Aircraft
and head-to-head competitions for training aircraft. The
Aviation Week Intelligence Network has examined the
world’s requirements for military aircraft and compiled
these best guesses on which companies might win those
competitions and how they may unfold.
Aircraft in Open Competitions, 2020-29

India 574 TOTAL NEW DELIVERIES
U.S. 322 10,335
Canada 115
99
CURRENT COMPETITIONS
South Korea
Japan 93
Australia 78
2,084
Malaysia 77
Peru 67 PERCENTAGE OF DELIVERIES
Saudi Arabia 58 IN COMPETITION
Spain 48
20.2%
Poland
32 Attack Helicopters South Korea
Polish Air Force Eight Special Mission C4ISR
Germany
60 Heavy-Lift Helicopters Seoul is on the hunt for four
Joint Surveillance and Target
Attack Radar System aircraft,
a pair of airborne early warning
and control platforms
and electronic warfare Japan
Spain
fixed-wing aircraft. 50 Attack Helicopters
20 Advanced Trainers
Spanish Air Force It is a likely conflict
between an MHI/Boeing
team, given their experience
Israel
with the AH-64 Apache,
16 Transport Helicopters
against a Kawasaki/Bell
Israeli Air Force effort to sell the AH-1Z.
Like Germany, Israel is
looking to replace its
Lockheed CH-53 helicopters
with either the Sikorsky
CH-53K or the Boeing CH-47, India
though political turbulence 114 Fighters Indian Air Force
has cast the competition 57 Fighters Indian Navy
into doubt. The Indian Air Force’s lingering need
to upgrade its fighter fleet remains the
world’s big potential combat aircraft
prize, with seven platforms vying for
the honor despite massive uncertainty.
Australia
16 Scout Helicopters
Army Special Operations
Deliveries by Category, 2020-25 Likelihood of Deliveries, 2020-25

1,400 1,400
1,200 1,200
1,000 1,000
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Fighters Helicopters Trainers/Light Combat Aircraft/Gunships Contracted Option Selected Competitions Assessed
Tankers/Transports C4ISR/Maritime/Firefighters Bombers
Source: 2020 Aviation Week Military Forecast
MILITARY AIRCRAFT buy 88 aircraft. It will choose from the
COMPETITIONS
F/A-18 E/F, F-35A or JAS 39E.
The Japan Air Self Defense Force,
seeking 60-90 aircraft, will launch an
F-2 replacement program in April 2020
From fighters to helicopters, tankers and but still is weighing whether to join a co-
transporters to trainers and special-mission aircraft, operative development program, partner
with a foreign company to develop its
here are more details about key contests likely own new fighter or go it alone.
to unfold over the next 10 years. The Finnish Air Force has received
bids for a $10 billion competition to
make 64 aircraft. The F-35 is favored
Matt Jouppi and Michael Tint Washington over the Boeing Super Hornet and
Growler, Rafale, Typhoon and
Gripen.
To replace its Northrop F-5
and F/A-18 fleets, the Swiss
SAAB
Air Force hopes to award a

$6.5 billion contract for the
FIGHTERS purchase of up to 40 fighters in 2020.
Germany’s Luftwaffe has fallen out
Countries around the world have pending of love with the F-35 and will decide be-
competitions for the purchase of up to 721 fighter aircraft over the coming tween the Typhoon and F/A-18 E/F/G in
years. Here is a look at the status of some of the most significant. a competition driven by a requirement
for a NATO nuclear delivery capability.
The Indian Air Force’s hunt for 114 air- approval to move forward early in 2020. In 2018, the Peruvian Air Force
craft to replace its aging Mikoyan MiG-21 Likewise, the Indian Navy is expected started studying its next fighter re-
and MiG-23/-27s, Sepecat Jaguar and to release a request for proposals for 57 quirement and wants to replace
Dassault Mirage fighters is a race among fighters in 2020. To win, manufacturers are its Dassault Mirage 2000 and
R
the Boeing F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale, offering to manufacture aircraft in-country. Mikoyan MiG-29 fleets with 24
AE
BR
EM
Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin The Canadian Air Force issued a re- aircraft. Options include the
F-21, Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS 39E and quest for proposals (RFP) for its Future Rafale, Korea Aerospace Indus-
Sukhoi S-35. The acquisition, which has Fighter Capability Project in July and ex- tries (KAI) FA-50, Lockheed Martin F-16
been years in the making, could receive pects to award a contract in 2021-22 to and MiG-35.
AIR
Navy intends to award a contract for a

BU
S
TH-57 helicopter replacement, choosing

between the Airbus H135 Bell 407 GXI and
HELICOPTERS Leonardo TH-119 for a training helicopter
to enter service in 2021. The Navy needs
When it comes to helicopters, two of the largest 130 aircraft and has budgeted for 109.
potential opportunities are again in India. The Japan Ground Self Defense
Force is seeking up to 50 attack heli-
copters to replace its AH-1S Cobras,
The Indian Navy is looking for 234 also underway in the U.S. and Asia. The with Bell likely to partner with Kawasaki
helicopters—123 of which have anti-sub- U.S. Army’s Future Attack Reconnais- Heavy Industries on its AH-1Z and Boe-
marine-warfare capabilities, and 111 of sance Aircraft competition, which could ing likely to team with Mitsubishi Heavy
which are armed light utility rotorcraft. involve more than 200 long-range, fast Industries on its AH-64E.
The competitors include the Airbus scout aircraft. The contest is pushing the The South Korean Air Force has de-
AS565, Kamov Ka-226T, NHIndustries technological envelope, with new entries layed its TH-X competition, scheduled
NFH90 and Sikorsky MH-60R. But the from four teams—AVX Aircraft/L3Harris, in 2017, to replace the MD500 fleet of
contract award could become tangled Bell, Boeing, Karem Aircraft/Northrop training helicopters. The Airbus H145M,
in a court challenge. Grumman/Raytheon and Sikorsky. Bell 505X Jet Ranger and Leonardo SW-4
Major helicopter competitions are By the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. are in the running.
TRANSPORT
In the market for transport
and training aircraft a few
competitions stand out.
TON
YO
SB
OR
NE
/AW
&S
T
SPECIAL MISSION AIRCRAFT

When it comes to specialty aircraft for maritime patrol, electron-
ic warfare or to aid battlefield communications, conflict in the
Asia-Pacific region is driving interest.
The U.S. Army canceled its Fixed-Wing The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force needs eight new signals intelligence
Utility program in 2018, saying it received aircraft to replace its Lockheed Martin OP-3 and UP-3 aircraft and is considering
no acceptable offers, but that has not special mission business jets, UAVs, a modified Kawasaki P-1 or Mitsubishi MRJs.
changed its need for about 76 replace- The Japan Air Self Defense Force is likewise preparing to replace the YS-11
ments for the Beechcraft C-12 and Fair- with six modern standoff jammers—perhaps a modified Kawasaki C-2 or aircraft
child C-26. The service will probably give from foreign and domestic prime contractors.
it another go, with the Beechcraft King Air The Philippines Air Force needs a pair of maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) and
350ER and Pilatus PC-24 likely entrants. may look to purchase secondhand Lockheed Martin P-3s or lower-end maritime
What does India not need? In this case, surveillance aircraft.
it is seeking 100 aircraft to replace aging Not all of the action is in Asia, though. The Spanish Navy needs eight maritime
Antonov An-32 transporters. The Indian Air patrollers, perhaps the Airbus C295 MPA or, more likely, the ATR 72 MPA.
Force may expand on an existing purchase
of Airbus C295s or buy the Ilyushin IL-214V.
Though Saudi Arabia’s joint venture
with Antonov on the An-132 has stalled,
the Persian Gulf powerhouse needs about
10 transporters. It was likely to opt for the
Airbus A400M, but Germany’s recent export
ban has opened the door to the Ilyushin IL-76
or the Kawasaki C-2.
The Peruvian Air Force needs six
“heavy-lift” aircraft, of which two would
BOEING
be tankers. Although the government
green-lighted the purchase of Lockheed
Martin C-130Js, the air force has reopened
the selection process in order to consider
the South American Embraer KC-390. LIGHT COMBAT AIRCRAFT/TRAINER
Over the next 10 years, training and light-combat aircraft will be a hot market,
with requirements for some 372 aircraft. Here is a sampling of some of the top contests.
The Indian Air Force is looking at the FMA IA-63, Pampa III, jet trainers—either the Boeing/Saab T-7A or Pilatus PC-21.
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) HJT-36 and Yakolev-130 to fill With budgets tight in Malaysia, its defense minister may
its need for 73 intermediate jet trainers. India also will consider trade palm oil for the 36 aircraft it needs—perhaps HAL Tejas
the HAL HTT-40 and other basic flight trainers, and is looking Light Combat Aircraft, KAI FA-50s, Leonardo M-346s, Mikoyan
to purchase 38. MiG-35s, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17s or Saab JAS
The Peruvian Air Force is seeking 24 light combat aircraft 39s. Russia has proposed buying back unserviceable MiG-29s
to supplement its Cessna A-37 Dragonflies. The Aero Vodo- and replacing them with MiG-35s.
chody L-39NG and KAI FA-50 are in the running. To replace aging Chengdu FT-7s, the Pakistani Air Force
By the early to mid-2020s, the Swedish Air Force aims to re- wants a dedicated trainer squadron of 12. It may opt for the
place its fleet of Saab 105 trainers with about 30 new advanced Hongdu L-15, KAI T-50 or Leonardo M-346.
BACKGROUND IMAGE: CHAINARONG PRASERTTHAI/ISTOCK
DEFENSE PROFILES
MC2 KENNETH RODRIGUEZ SANTIAGO/U.S. NAVY

Back to the Future
> COMPETING VISIONS EMERGE TO REPLACE E-8C ROLE
F-22s and B-2s rule the air now, but
> U.S. ARMY AND AIR FORCE TAKE DIFFERENT PATHS TO FUTURE the focus is shifting to networks and
LONG-RANGE STRIKE long-range missiles.
Steve Trimble Washington
T
hree different visions of the satellites to identify targets hundreds a conflict with China and Russia by
future of U.S. air and space or thousands of miles downrange. The 2028, different visions of a future con-
power from the air, land and targeting data collected by the MDSS ventional conflict are starting to take
maritime perspective will come to will then queue strikes from a new ar- shape. The Air Force is betting long
the fore in 2020. senal of long-range, ground-launched on future capabilities, shifting invest-
The U.S. Air Force will propose a missiles and projectiles—not unlike ments into technologies that would
radical break from the status quo with how the Air Force’s satellites, E-8Cs redefine traditional notions of how to
a $30 billion, five-year plan to invest in and RC-135s currently pick out ground manage a battle in real time from the
the future, including combat power, ad- targets deep behind enemy lines for air and space. The Army is focusing
vanced communications, offensive and bombers and fighters to strike. on existing technologies, expanding
defensive space and a more survivable Finally, the Marine Corps and Navy the reach of artillery and regenerating
logistics system. It is a break from the are changing course. In another piv- certain capabilities such as the E-8C
status quo because the Air Force will otal 2019 moment, Gen. David Berger, Joint Surveillance Target Attack Ra-
finance the plan by divesting multiple the newly confirmed Marine Corps dar System (J-Stars), which the Air
fleets of older aircraft by the end of 2024. commandant, published new planning Force plans to abandon. The Navy and
As the Air Force doubles down on guidance in July. The 26-page strate- Marine Corps remain committed to an
the future, the U.S. Army is laying gic blueprint concedes that China’s aircraft carrier-centric force structure
plans to assume more of the long- long-range, anti-ship weapons make but also to adapting it to operate in a
range surveillance and strike capabil- the Marines’ traditional amphibious new threat environment.
ities now performed by the Air Force. strategy unfeasible. In 2020, Berger The trend began in 2018 with the
One of the most significant and some- and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Air Force’s decision to cancel the E-8C
how least heralded new initiatives un- Mike Gilday will lay out a new strategic J-Stars Recapitalization program. The
veiled in 2019 is the Army’s Multi-Do- direction, emphasizing closer integra- J-Stars typified the type of capability
main Sensing System (MDSS), which tion of each service’s tactical air forces. that established the U.S. military’s
seeks to introduce by 2028 new fleets As the services scramble to fulfill strength over the past three decades.
of surveillance aircraft, airships and a goal to be prepared to “dominate” It was conceived by DARPA’s Assault
Breaker program, which was tasked The Air Force also made other software standards and agile software
with finding a cost-effective solution to crucial decisions at the end of 2018. development.
neutralize the Soviet Union’s armored The Pentagon’s spending plan for the The Air Force’s plan for replacing
might in Eastern Europe. Assault 2020-24 period, which was released J-Stars is following themes similar to
Breaker demonstrated that an aircraft in March 2019, gutted the budget NGAD. The Advanced Battle Manage-
with a sensor and onboard battle man- for Next-Generation Air Dominance ment System (ABMS), launched a year
agement suite could peer deep behind (NGAD) by 50%, cutting funding over ago, proposes to disaggregate the func-
enemy lines, identify tanks on the move the five-year period to $6.6 billion tion of battle management command
and pass the coordinates to the Army’s from $13.2 billion. Air Force leaders and control (BMC2). The task of BMC2
Advanced Tactical Missile System stated unequivocally for the first time is to close kill chains as quickly as pos-
(Atacms) or Air Force that a next-generation sible. An aerial network aggregates
strike aircraft. fighter program was data flowing off sensors. Software algo-
By 2018, however, the U.S. no longer included in rithms, not humans, identify the targets
threat had changed. 2020 DEFENSE BUDGET the five-year spend- and pass the coordinates to platforms
The E-8C’s APY-7 ra- $750 billion (requested) ing plan for NGAD. carrying weapons. A human operator,
dar can identify targets Instead, the Air Force the final link in the chain, then decides
155 km (96 mi.) away, PERCENT OF GDP decided to push back whether to pull the trigger. Those trig-
but Russia’s S-400 air 3.2 the launch of an F-22 ger-pullers could be flying on a new
defense system intro- PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS replacement beyond fleet of combat aircraft designed to be
duced the 40N6 in- 1.4 million 2024. built in small batches, with unique flight
terceptor in 2018. The active duty military In the meantime, the characteristics but sharing mission sys-
40N6 boasts a range service would focus on tems, software and as many common
of 400 km, and is de- reinventing how such components as possible.
signed to strike a radiating, slow-mov- next-generation combat aircraft would It is a grand, sweeping vision for the
ing target like the E-8C. Such a capabil- be designed, built, operated and sus- future of airpower after 2030, but in
ity creates a Catch-22: The S-400 radar tained, with an emphasis on what Will some ways it connects the Air Force
and 40N6 launcher can be detected Roper—the assistant secretary of the
and targeted, but not if aircraft such Air Force for acquisition, technology Ground-based command centers
as the E-8C must operate far beyond and logistics—calls the “holy trinity”: once defined the U.S. approach to
the range of its sensor to survive. digital design tools, open architecture military dominance.
TECH. SGT. JOSHUA STRANG/U.S. AIR FORCE
DEFENSE PROFILES
back to its roots. Before airborne BMC2
U.S. ARMY
became institutionalized by the early The U.S. Army is hedging
1990s, the Air Force trained pilots to
its bets on air power by
the “centralized control, decentralized
execution” standard, with an empha- investing in long-range,
sis on granting crews at the forward high-speed missiles.
edge of the battle as much autonomy
to operate as possible. Moreover, the
post-World War II aerospace industry
churned out new aircraft designs in cy-
cles that could be measured in months
or years instead of decades. The indus-
try’s innovativeness in the early years
of the Cold War inspired Roper’s “Dig-
ital Century Series” title for the new
NGAD initiative, referencing the six
different fighters that entered the Air
Force inventory between 1954 and 1959.
But achieving that goal probably will
not come without a cost. It is possible
that U.S. taxpayers will keep defense
spending growth in line with or above in fiscal 2022. In such an environment, J-Stars Recap and $6.6 billion by de-
inflation, but the Air Force leadership paying for investments in new capabil- ferring the launch of a new fighter un-
is not counting on it. The new five-year ities is a zero-sum game; the funding der NGAD. In 2021, the Air Force will
spending plan for fiscal 2021, which the has to come from other programs. dig even deeper. More than $30 billion
Air Force submitted to the Defense Last year, the Air Force redirected will be diverted to next-generation ca-
Department in September, assumes at least $11 billion to other capabilities, pabilities by accelerating retirements
flat or declining budget levels starting including $6.4 billion by canceling the of older aircraft. The rule used by Air
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34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 23, 2019-JANUARY 12, 2020 AviationWeek.com/ AWST
Force leaders, according to Chief of on the Air Force’s reconnaissance and Navy for targeting support.
Staff Gen. David Goldfein, was each strike aircraft to identify and attack such At some point in 2020, the Joint Staff
fleet’s relevance in a conflict with Chi- threats as long-range artillery, including may have to get involved. It is the Joint
na or Russia between 2030 and 2038. surface-to-surface missiles. In the future, Staff’s duty to adjudicate overlapping
If the aircraft fleet’s cost cannot justify the Army’s Long-Range Precision Fires or redundant capabilities between the
its assessed value during that period, (LRPF) program envisions attacking services. Each service is now taking
the Air Force will propose early retire- threats far beyond the horizon. The lon- different approaches to performing a
ment within the next five years. gest-range weapon in the Army’s arsenal mission defined by the E-8C: Detecting
So far, the Air Force has openly dis- today is the 300-km Atacms. moving targets in any weather.
cussed only one aircraft fleet as likely By 2025, the Army hopes to deploy The Air Force plans to introduce the
to face early retirement: the Rockwell the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon first two increments of the ABMS by
B-1B Lancer. The fleet has performed with a range beyond 3,000 km and the 2025, with a third and more advanced
nobly over the past 18 years as a close Precision Strike Missile with a range version coming online after 2030. The
air support asset for ground troops in potentially over 700 km. Such weapons Army has the AISR requirement. The
Afghanistan and the Middle East, an could be used to target an adversary’s Navy, meanwhile, already operates
unlikely role for an aircraft originally air defenses at the beginning of a war, a fleet of medium-altitude aircraft
designed to drop nuclear bombs on de- allowing Air Force combat aircraft to equipped with powerful synthetic ap-
fended targets in the Soviet Union. Al- more easily penetrate airspace that erture radars (SAR). The subset of the
though it can still perform conventional would otherwise be denied. Navy’s Boeing P-8A is equipped to car-
missions against lightly defended tar- But the Army’s ambitions do not ry the Raytheon Advanced Airborne
gets and is the only Air Force fleet with stop there. As the Air Force pursues Sensor (AAS), which replicates the
a maritime strike capability, the service the ABMS mission, the Army appears E-8C’s SAR and ground-moving-tar-
has to decide if that is worth the cost to be taking over-the-horizon surveil- get-indicator capabilities.
of sustaining the swing-wing bomber lance and targeting into its own hands. Over the last three decades, the
through its retirement date in 2040. So far, the MDSS remains an internal Navy has adopted several missions
If Congress accepts the Air Force’s Army concept. It calls for establish- after they were abandoned by the Air
funding transfers, the result could be a ing an intelligence, surveillance and Force. The Navy’s E-6B Tacamo fleet
new approach to air power after 2030. reconnaissance (ISR) architecture now performs the role once played by
With the advantages of stealth, preci- with multiple layers stretching from the Air Force’s EC-135 Looking Glass.
sion and centralized BMC2 eroding, the treetop level to space. Two new pillars The service’s fleet of EA-18Gs now pro-
Air Force’s counter is to make decisions of the architecture are the Airborne vides medium-range electronic attack
faster than an enemy can react by har- ISR (AISR) fleet of business jet-class for the Air Force’s tactical aircraft.
nessing and exploiting a vast quantity of aircraft with the E-8C’s sensors and a The AAS-equipped P-8A fleet could
sensor data at lightning speed. If Amer- constellation of small satellites in low find itself under similar pressure to
ican fighters and bombers cannot rely Earth orbit. Such a capability would replace the void created by the re-
on stealth to survive, they can still win allow the Army to complete the sen- tirement of the E-8C, as long as the
by moving faster and more decisively. sor-to-shooter kill chain by itself in third increment of the ABMS and the
But the Army seems to be hedging many cases, freeing the service from Army’s AISR programs are still in the
its bets. Its maneuver forces now rely dependence on the Air Force and development phase. c
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DEFENSE PROFILES
Trudeau with broad latitude. The Lib-
eral Party’s platform made no specif-
Canada’s Defense Agenda Uncertain ic promises about defense spending,
other than a commitment to reform
as Trudeau Enters Second Term acquisition by creating a dedicated pro-
curement agency for the armed forces.
> BOEING AND SAAB LIKELY TO BID ON FUTURE FIGHTER CAPABILITY Canada still has a long list of un-
fulfilled acquisition priorities coming
> REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS EXPECTED AT MIDYEAR FOR REMOTELY due. In addition to entering a year-
PILOTED AIR SYSTEM long source selection for the Future
Fighter Capability, the PSPC is sched-
Steve Trimble Washington uled to release a request for propos-
als for the Remotely
C CANADA
anadian Prime Minister Jus- swore during the 2015 Piloted Air System
tin Trudeau won reelection election campaign nev- by midyear, opening a
in November, but his Liberal er to buy the Lockheed 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET competition between
Party lost its four-year-old majority in Martin F-35, the politics $22.5 billion bids by L3 MAS/Isra-
Parliament—a subtle twist of fate that of Boeing’s failed bid to PERCENT OF GDP el Aerospace Systems
poses uncertainties for the national disrupt what was then 1.3 and General Atomics
security agenda, which was largely a Bombardier C Series Aeronautical Systems.
PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS
71,500
CANADIAN DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL DEFENSE

active duty
absent from the political debate on sale to Delta Air Lines—by filing an an- Canada’s CF-18s are headed for
the campaign trail. ti-dumping complaint—forced Trudeau retirement by the middle of the next
Trudeau entered 24 Sussex, the to cancel an interim purchase of Boeing decade, pending the outcome of the
prime minister’s Ottawa residence, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. The F-35 country’s ongoing Future Fighter
in 2015 riding partly on a firm to-do reentered the CF-18 replacement
Capability tender process.
list of campaign promises focused on competition, with Public Services and
the Canadian armed forces, including Procurement Canada (PSPC) agreeing Additional tenders are in the pipeline
launching a competition to replace the last summer to remove a contractual for a turnkey pilot training system and
air force’s CF-18s and completing the requirement for guaranteed local main- a fleet of new tankers.
acquisition of a fixed-wing search-and- tenance support, opening the way for So far, the new government has
rescue aircraft fleet. Trudeau subse- Lockheed to submit a bid. Boeing and been silent on those priorities, with
quently published a new white paper Saab are expected to submit proposals Trudeau expressing only in the
in 2017 that called for raising defense for the F/A-18/E/F and Gripen E/F, re- Speech to the Throne on Dec. 5 a
spending by 70% by 2028. spectively, by the deadline in January. promise to renew the country’s “com-
Trudeau largely fulfilled his commit- But the dearth of defense issues mitment to NATO and United Nations
ments to the armed forces. Although he in the 2019 election campaign leaves peacekeeping.” c
Accomplishing Brexit Will In December, the Royal Navy com-
missioned the second new Queen Eliza-
Challenge UK Defense beth-class aircraft carrier, HMS Prince
of Wales, in a further step toward re-
> ELECTION STRENGTHENED CALLS FOR SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE storing the country’s carrier capability.
Following operational trials in the fall
> UK COMMISSIONS SECOND QUEEN ELIZABETH-CLASS CARRIER off the Eastern U.S., more are planned
around the UK during 2020, paving the
Tony Osborne London way for the first operational deploy-
ment in May 2021.
B
oris Johnson’s election land- nomic output and in- The UK plans to
slide on Dec. 12 makes Brexit vestments fall away. UK have 35 F-35s in service
on Jan. 31 a certainty. National debt also is 2020-21 DEFENSE BUDGET by the end of 2022, and
But as the chants of “Get Brexit rising. The British Par- £41.3 billion ($55.1 billion)
the government has
Done”—a slogan used by the Conserva- liament’s own analysis committed to buying
tive party in their election messaging— suggests GDP could PERCENT OF GDP all of the 138 F-35s it
fade away, Britain’s place in the world be 7% lower over the 2.0 planned to purchase
appears infinitely more vulnerable. next 15 years than when it joined the
PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS
Johnson’s parliamentary majority without Brexit, and JSF program in the
192,660 (full-time and reservists
means he can now sweep aside any op- even with a free-trade early 2000s. Whether
as of October 2019)
position to pursue his vision of Brexit. agreement established that commitment is
But he was not the only victor. with Europe. Questions met and if the UK will
The Scottish National Party secured then would arise about whether Brit- purchase additional variants could be
48 of Scotland’s 59 seats, which the ain could afford to maintain military determined in a strategic defense and
party says is a mandate for a second spending. Currency fluctuations will security review planned for 2020.
independence vote. If it were to suc-
LPHOTO DANIEL SHEPHERD/ROYAL NAVY

ceed, there would be far-reaching con-
sequences to Britain’s national defense
capability. Scotland is home to strate-
gically important air bases and, most
significantly, the UK’s Trident-based
nuclear deterrent. Johnson is unlikely
to approve such a referendum at least
in the short-term, but the Scottish na-
tionalists could make life difficult for his
government, and preventing a referen-
dum could be seen as undemocratic.
Operational testing of
The complexities of having Northern
Ireland as the only part of the UK to the F-35 onboard HMS
share a land border with an EU coun- Queen Elizabeth has paved
try, the Republic of Ireland, mean that the way for the first operational
after a Brexit there will be a border in deployment to the Far East in 2021.
the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland
and the rest of the UK. This, too, could
have security implications and lead to affect big-budget programs such as With the retirement of the Panavia
renewed violence from unionist groups, the ongoing purchase of the Lockheed Tornado last March, the Eurofight-
as they see their political influence be- Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). er Typhoon fleet has become the
ing eroded. Nationalists see an oppor- Britain is one of a handful of NATO heavy-lifter of the UK’s air defense
tunity for a united Ireland once again. countries with defense spending at or mission and is continuing air strikes
There is also uncertainty about the above NATO’s target of 2% of GDP. against Islamic State group sites in Iraq
futures of Gibraltar and Diego Garcia. The Conservative manifesto published and Syria along with the UK’s MQ-9
Exiting the EU means British securi- in the run-up to the election calls for Reaper unmanned aircraft systems.
ty forces no longer will be linked to EU this to increase by at least 0.5% above The UK now is stepping up devel-
databases on criminals, organized crime inflation every year. Britain’s defense opment of a Typhoon replacement for
and terror. Questions also have arisen budget for 2019-20 was £39.5 billion the mid-2030s with the Tempest future
about Russia’s influence in the British ($52.7 billion), and this will rise to £41.3 combat air system, supported by Italy
democratic process, with Johnson sup- billion for 2020-21. The government and Sweden. More nations could join in
pressing publication of an intelligence will maintain and renew the Trident 2020, with Japan a key target. And with
report on Russian infiltration in British nuclear deterrent but also support the delivery of the first of nine Boeing P-8
politics during the the election run-up. defense industry with “ambitious global maritime patrollers, the UK is back in
And there is a fiscal aspect as well. programs,” including local construction the long-range antisubmarine-warfare
Since the Brexit vote in 2016, Britain’s of Type 31 frigates and local production business, with an initial operating capa-
GDP has begun to stagnate as eco- of the Boxer armored vehicle. bility expected in April. c
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DEFENSE PROFILES
French Defense Budget Increase gling to reach a financial agreement

with the government, according to
Is Part of Multiyear Plan French daily La Tribune. The aircraft is
still at an early design
> FLEET RENEWAL CONTINUES
FRANCE
stage. The French Air
Force will also order
> AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY IS STILL AN ISSUE 2020 DEFENSE BUDGET four C-130H upgraded
€37.5 billion transports.
Thierry Dubois Lyon ($41.5 billion) For the navy, the
ministry is to order
F
rance’s defense budget remains French Army will re- PERCENT OF GDP three new E-2D Hawk-
on an upward curve as planned ceive seven NH90s. 1.86 eye airborne radar air-
and with much less controversy The air force is now PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS craft from Northrop
than a year ago. The trend signals the in charge of France’s 268,000 (including civil servants) Grumman. Seven
government’s determination to simulta- military space seg- modified Dassault Fal-
neously renew its armaments, maintain ment, which will see con 2000s will be de-
its presence in conflict zones—such as the launch of a CSO Earth-observation livered under the Albatros maritime
the Sahel—and sustain troop morale. satellite—the second in a planned con- patrol program. For the army, 14 Tigre
The confirmation of the budget’s stellation of three. combat helicopters will be upgraded.
growth comes at a time when French Few new orders are expected. One Although not a firm order yet, the
President Emmanuel Macron is may be of importance, however: four November launch of the construction
questioning NATO’s functionality. medium-altitude, long-endurance phase of the Archange program marks
Nevertheless, the increase maintains EuroMALE UAVs. Airbus is the prime the country’s determination to renew
France’s defense expenditures on a contractor, Dassault and Leonardo are its capability in electromagnetic signals
trajectory to meet, in 2025, the NATO major partners, and they are all strug- intelligence, notably the interception of
requirement of 2% of GDP. Next year, voice radio communications and ra-
the proportion will stand at a calculat-
ed 1.86% (despite the reckoning by the
French Military dar waves. From 2025, three modified
Falcon 8Xs will gradually replace the
national audit office in 2017 that France Aircraft Fleets existing two Transall C-160 Gabriels.
is complying with NATO’s 2% standard, AIR FORCE The Thales-made payload will include
thanks to expenses in research and de- multipolarization antennae and artifi-
velopment and operations abroad). Combat 219 cial intelligence software to improve
It also takes place against a backdrop automated data processing.
of gradual increase in the EU’s defense Transport 75
Meanwhile, Francois Cornut-Gen-
posture. European Commission Pres- Support 22 tille, a deputy specializing in defense
ident-elect Ursula von der Leyen has budgeting, is raising several issues. He
dedicated a directorate-general po- Liaison 27 notes that no credit has been allocat-
sition to defense, industry and space. ed to the nascent “space supremacy”
Training 116
Germany, France’s main partner in the program. A three-satellite program
EU, is also increasing its defense budget Air Display 21 for space-based electromagnetic in-
(see page 43). And although the UK is to telligence has been postponed, and the
leave the EU after Brexit takes effect, Helicopters 74 2020 launch of the second CSO will be
it is expected to remain France’s stron- UAVs 6 three years late, he adds.
gest military ally. Aircraft availability is a wide-
The 2020 budget attributed to the ARMY spread problem, according to Cornut-
ministry of armed forces amounts to Gentille. The upgrade of the navy’s
€37.5 billion ($41.5 billion). The 4.5% Helicopters 286 E-2Cs should improve their poor
expansion is part of the 2019-25 pro- Liaison 13 availability—13%, as of Dec. 31, 2018.
gramming law. Cornut- Gentille also points at the
The French Air Force is expecting NAVY A400M’s “abnormally low” 27.5%. The
delivery of two Airbus A400M trans- air force expects to have 17 A400Ms
ports, one Lockheed Martin KC-130J Combat 42 by the end of 2020. That percentage
tanker and one Airbus Multi Role Tactical Airborne Early Warning 3 should improve progressively, thanks
Tanker Transport. It will also receive to the aircraft’s maturity and the sup-
the first two upgraded Dassault Mirage Maritime Patrol 22 port contract signed with Airbus in
2000D fighters, and General Atomics June 2019, the ministry notes.
Maritime Surveillance 13
will hand over three (one “system,” To keep troop morale at a sound
under the French government’s tax- Combat and Rescue Helicopters 55 level, some investment will be made in
onomy) MQ-9 Reaper UAVs. housing and family care (especially for
The French Navy will receive two Support and Public Service Helicopters 24 those who have one parent abroad for
NHIndustries NH90 helicopters and Maritime Support 22
an extended period)—a combined €200
another two upgraded Atlantique 2 million in 2020, as part of the nine-year
(ATL2) maritime patrol aircraft. The As of July 1, 2019. Source: French Ministry of Armed Forces. “military welfare program.” c
NATO Programs Make Progress NATO also is looking ahead to in-
ducting what will be its latest—30th—
Despite Alliance Divisions member, North Macedonia.
In addition, the alliance is taking its
> NOT ALL MEMBERS WILL MEET THE 2% DEFENSE BUDGET GOAL first steps toward the modernization
and, ultimately, renewal of its shared
> NATO IS MOVING TO MODERNIZE AND RENEW ITS SHARED aircraft fleets. In November, NATO
AIRCRAFT FLEETS contracted with Boeing to use elements
of the $1 billion Final Lifetime Exten-
Tony Osborne London sion Program (FLEP) on the Boeing
E-3A Sentry airborne early warning
N
ATO’s London meeting in De- ceased and, combined, the allies have (AEW) aircraft fleet based in Germany.
cember exposed deep divisions invested $130 billion since 2016. This is Under the program, the aircraft will be
among alliance members. expected to grow to $400 billion by the upgraded with modernized data-link-
It was supposed to be a celebration end of 2024. The additional funding is ing and communications systems as
of the alliance’s 70th birthday, but in- helping NATO to increase its readiness, well as new consoles for the operators.
stead NATO leaders expressed ongoing and alliance members used the meeting The program also is expected to help
concerns about the relevance of Article to commit to a joint readiness of 30 bat- reduce obsolescence of the aircraft, en-
5, NATO’s raison d’etre that declares talions, 30 air squadrons and 30 combat suring it can operate to 2035. Upgrade
an attack on one is an attack on all, and ships for operations in 30 days. work will be conducted in Germany
about Turkey’s role in the alliance giv- The meeting also saw nations rec- and Italy, and is expected to be com-
en its rekindled relationship with Rus- ognize space as a new warfighting do- pleted in 2026.
sia and its blocking of renewed defense main, reflecting steps already taken in Beyond 2035, NATO plans to intro-
plans of the Baltic states and Poland. the U.S., France and the UK. Members duce the Alliance Future Surveillance
And then there is the troubling fiscal took the first steps toward recognizing and Control (AFSC) program, what is
likely to be a distributed, networked
CHRISTIAN TIMMIG/HQ AIRCOM, RAMSTEIN
and highly automated system of sys-

tems to perform multidomain surveil-
lance. In December, the NATO Sup-
port and Procurement Agency (NSPA)
awarded high-level concept contracts
to Airbus, the Boeing-led Abiliti con-
sortium, General Atomics, an L3
Harris-led consortium, Lockheed
Martin and MDA of Canada to devel-
op potential options and solutions for
the AFSC system, and to understand
how the system will be interoperable
with capabilities being introduced by
member states.
NATO’s first Alliance Ground Surveillance derivative of NATO also finally received the first
the Global Hawk UAV was delivered in November. Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS)
derivative of the high-flying Northrop
Grumman RQ-4D Global Hawk Block
question, one often posed by U.S. Pres- the potential challenge of China as a 40 in November, after a two-year de-
ident Donald Trump, about why some growing international power and the lay. The alliance is buying five of the
of Europe’s most successful economies world’s second-largest defense spender. aircraft equipped with Northrop’s
are still struggling to devote 2% of their After the collapse of the Intermedi- Multi-Platform Radar Technology
GDP to national defense. ate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) Insertion Program, allowing it to
NATO called upon member-states in between Russia and the U.S. in 2019, perform a similar role to the E-8
2014 to meet the 2% target within a de- NATO hopes it can encourage China Joint Stars aircraft. The aircraft will
cade. Nine of the 29 alliance members to join future arms control agreements. be based at Sigonella, Sicily, from
now meet or expect to meet the 2% tar- NATO has yet to formally respond which U.S. Air Force Global Hawks
get by the end of 2019, but some will to Russia’s deployment of the Novator are operating. Next steps include a
not meet the target by 2024. Germany, 9M729 cruise missile, the weapon the verification process for each of the
with arguably one of NATO’s biggest U.S. said violated the INF treaty. Secre- aircraft on arrival in Sicily, and NATO
economies, is not expected to hit the tary General Jens Stoltenberg says the hopes to achieve an initial operating
target until 2031. NATO response to the breach will be capability in the first half of 2020.
Nonetheless, across the alliance, “defensive, measured and coordinated” Although the AGS program is being
spending is on the increase. Figures and will be “an important part of our funded and acquired by 15 member
released by NATO in advance of the work for the months to come,” but he states, access to the data acquired by
London meeting revealed that in most would not say whether the alliance will the aircraft will available to all NATO
countries, defense cuts largely have respond with similar capabilities. countries. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
Russian Defense Modernization in November. The program should fo-

cus on precision weapons, aerospace
Slows but Will Not Stop defense, reconnaissance and strike
unmanned aircraft, laser and hyper-
sonic systems, weapons based on new
> MORE SU-34 FIGHTER-BOMBER ORDERS ARE LIKELY, ANALYST SAYS physical principles and robotic vehi-
> DELIVERY OF THE FIRST PRE-PRODUCTION SU-57 DUE BY YEAR-END cles, he said.
Russian forces gained some ex-
Maxim Pyadushkin Moscow perience operating these types of
weapons during operations in Syria,
R
ussia is finishing its armed forc- 2018, that number had where Russia has been
es’ first massive post-Soviet dropped to 50 aircraft. RUSSIA supporting local gov-
rearmament. The renewal, The military clearly ernment forces in the
which started in the early 2010s, will has opted for modi- 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET civil war raging since
not stop but is likely to continue at a fication of the heavy 3,059 billion rubles 2015. More than 300
slower pace. Most of the new weap- Sukhoi Flanker fam- ($48 billion) types of “major weap-
ons have been combat-tested in Syria, ily. Major purchase PERCENT OF GDP ons and military hard-
where Russia for the first time has contracts included 2.4 ware” have been test-
conducted limited force-projection single-seat Su-35 and ed in this operational
operations. double-seat Su-30SM PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS zone, Defense Minis-
According to the federal budget ap- multirole fighters and 1,013,628 ter Sergei Shoigu said
proved in November, Russia’s defense Su-34 fighter bombers, in November.
spending will drop to 2.4% of GDP in as well as Yakovlev Yak-130 jet trainers. According to Makienko, Russian
2020, the lowest rate since 2015, when Now, the rearmament is fixed and forces in Syria now number 6,000-
it reached 4.2%. The budget share of will continue at a slower pace, the 7,000. They mostly provide air support
defense spending also will decrease, CAST expert says. According to for ground operations by the Syrian
to 15.7% in 2020 from 16.8% in 2019, Makienko, the air force is likely to government forces and protect their
reports the defense committee of order another Su-34 fighters after bases in Khmeimim and Tartus.
Russia’s State Duma. That rate is like- deliveries under the current order for “The Russian military got a taste of
ly to remain low through 2022. 92 aircraft are completed. Prospects high-precision weapons in Syria,” he
Nevertheless, Russian defense ex- for the Su-35 and Su-30SM are not so points out. Another new experience is
penditures are expected to grow clear, but production can continue be- a wide use of unmanned vehicles for
slightly. The budget for 2020 cause of export demand. air reconnaissance and target detec-
allocates 3,059 billion rubles The Russian military is expected to tion. This enabled the air force to cut
(about $48 billion) for take a serious leap with the introduc- the reaction time from target acquisi-
tion to engagement from 1 hr. to a few
SUKHOI
minutes, he notes.
Russia now uses relatively small
UAV models such as the Forpost, a
licensed copy of the Israel Aerospace
Industries Searcher, and the indig-
enous Orlan. However, the military
already has financed development
of larger unmanned vehicles. Sukhoi
flight-tested the S-70 jet-powered,
stealth-shaped UAV in 2019. The Rus-
sian military plans to use it for target
detection and strike missions.
Another important program is the
Kronstadt Orion medium-altitude,
Russia’s military placed an order for 76 Su-57 aircraft during the summer. long-endurance aircraft designed for
aerial patrol and reconnaissance. The
national defense. This sum is expected tion of the Su-57 fifth-generation fight- first deliveries also were planned for
to grow to 3,285 billion rubles in 2022. er. Delivery of the first aircraft from the end of 2019.
During the past decade, Russia pri- the preproduction batch was expected Makienko agrees that the expe-
oritized air force rearmament, receiv- by the end of 2019. The military already rience in Syria has proved Russian
ing about 460 new fixed-wing aircraft placed a new order for 76 Su-57s last armed forces can conduct limited
in 2011-20, says Konstantin Makienko, summer. Three regiments are expect- force projection, so the new rearma-
deputy head of the Moscow-based think ed to receive the new fighters by 2028. ment program can shift to naval and
tank Center for Analysis of Strategies “We have to start working out the strategic missile forces operations.
and Technologies (CAST). Deliveries government rearmament program “This is a mistake, as the resources
peaked in 2014, when the air force re- through 2033 next year,” Russian should be invested in [the rearma-
ceived 101 combat and training jets. By President Vladimir Putin announced ment] of the ground forces,” he says. c
2020 Brings Decisions for Berlin’s request for information could revive
the F-35’s chances but would also push
Military Modernization a decision to the right.
Berlin is, however, expected to ap-
> MORE EUROFIGHTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ORDERED IN 2020 prove in early 2020 the purchase of
additional Eurofighters to replace the
> GERMANY WANTS ARMED FORCES TO PLAY MORE PROACTIVE ROLE Tranche 1 aircraft.
The Quadriga requirement calls for
Tony Osborne London up to 38 additional Eurofighters. The
government is also ex-
G GERMANY
ermany may have made big Her fellow ministers pected to approve the
commitments to increase de- remain cautious. De- long-awaited fitting of
fense spending, but it is strug- fense spending at 2% 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET an active, electronical-
gling to deliver the modernization its of GDP would make €45 billion ($50 million) ly scanned array radar
armed forces badly need. Germany one of the onto existing Tranche
PERCENT OF GDP
As the richest European country, it biggest defense spend- 2 and 3 Eurofighters;
1.35
appears to be finally awakening to al- ers in the world. For- the Quadriga aircraft
lied calls to play a more proactive role eign Minister Heiko PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS will be delivered with
in international security. Maas has suggested 182,649 the sensor.
Berlin added more than €5 billion developing a more (as of October 2019) In 2017, Berlin signed
($5.5 billion) to the defense budget in assertive German mil- up for the Nether-
2019, and although ministers admit it is itary should be pursued only with sup- lands-led Multinational Multi-Role
unlikely to meet NATO’s goal of spend- port from European allies. Tanker Transport fleet, which will en-
ing 2% of GDP by 2024—instead tar- There is light on the horizon, though. able replacement of Germany’s aging
geting 1.5% then and 2% for 2031—1.5% Several key programs are being fund- Airbus A310 tanker-transport aircraft.
is a significant hike from today’s 1.35%. ed, boosting a long-criticized shortfall Germany also became the first Airbus
A400M operating nation to begin using
JOHANNES HEYR/BUNDESWEHR
it in an operational environment, send-

ing one to Jordan to support the on-
going reconnaissance mission against
the Islamic State group. Also coming
is a long-awaited selection to replace
Germany’s Sikorsky CH-53G Stallion
heavy transport (STH) helicopter fleet.
The STH program is considering
the Boeing CH-47 Chinook or Sikorsky
CH-53K King Stallion. The decision
has faced numerous delays, but indus-
try is now expecting a contract to be
signed in 2021, suggesting a selection
in 2020.
Meanwhile the German Navy has
opted to simplify its helicopter fleet
by adopting the European NH90 to
Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (center) has secured billions replace its Westland Lynx shipboard
in additional funding for Germany’s armed forces; but without procurement anti-submarine helicopters. The ser-
reform, the country may struggle to spend it to improve capability. vice had selected the NH90 as its re-
placement for the Sikorsky Sea King
The biggest challenge is in spending it. of combat aircraft, helicopters and and has now opted to buy 31 NH90s to
Germany lacks political expedien- naval vessels. replace 24 Lynxes, to equip 15 of Ger-
cy. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s shaky Among the most important purchase many’s surface combatants with two
governing coalition is slowly pushing decisions will be on replacing its aging helicopters each.
through modernization, and the years of fleet of Panavia Tornado fighter bomb- Other programs have been less for-
slicing the defense budget have left the ers. Germany wants a platform that tunate. The plan to modernize ground-
procurement agencies in disarray and can handle all 12 missions performed based air defenses with the MBDA and
short-staffed, in urgent need of reform. by the Tornado, including the nuclear Lockheed Martin Medium Extended
“A country of our size, with our eco- strike mission with the dual-key B61 Air Defense System (TLVS in German)
nomic and technological power, our free-fall weapons. Berlin has narrowed has yet to achieve contract signature,
geostrategic position and global inter- the choice to the Eurofighter or Boeing despite its 2015 selection. Having sub-
ests, cannot just stand on the sidelines F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, knocking mitted their final offer in the summer,
and watch,” said German Defense Min- back Lockheed Martin’s F-35. This is MBDA and Lockheed Martin are hope-
ister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in despite neither being equipped to per- ful the multibillion-euro deal will finally
a November speech to military officers. form the nuclear mission. A renewed get the green light in 2020. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
Turkey’s International Defense UAVs and naval vessels and by drill-

ing illegal—according to the European
Relations Challenge NATO Solidarity Union—exploratory oil wells off the
coastline of Cyprus.
> PROCUREMENT OF RUSSIAN-MADE S-400 ROILS U.S., KILLS F-35 DEAL Turkey’s push to become a major
exporter of arms continues, with a
> RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL DEFENSE INDUSTRY CONTINUES growing presence at international ex-
hibitions and demonstrations of Turk-
ish-made platforms.
Tony Osborne London Development of a Turkish combat
aircraft, the TF-X, ap-
T TURKEY
urkey’s international standing Turkey’s industrial pears to be gaining
among its NATO allies took a participation in the government support as
beating in 2019, and there is lit- program is expected 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET Turkey’s involvement
tle sign of relations improving during to end by March 2020 79,356 billion Turkish lira in the F-35 slips away.
2020. and will be redistrib- ($13.6 billion) At the Paris Air Show,
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s uted to other program PERCENT OF GDP Turkish Aerospace
decision to invade Northern Syria to partners. The U.S. has 1.89 CEO Temel Kotil said
create a so-called safe zone for Syrian yet to impose sanc- the aircraft could fly in
refugees, while also attacking Kurd- tions against Turkey PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS 2025. Ankara has also
ish groups that allegedly support the using the Countering Approximately 360,000 assigned $1 billion in
Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) militant America’s Adversaries funding to support the
group, prompted an international out- Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa) but has program for the next four years, out to
cry, initiated embargoes and sent ripple until the end of January 2020 to do so. its preliminary design review. Testing
effects through the alliance. Concerns In Ankara, ministers are still hope- continues on the T625 Gokbey twin-en-
remain that Turkey’s actions may have ful they can find some common ground gine dual-role helicopter after first flight
enabled thousands of Islamic State
BAYKAR MAKINA
group prisoners to escape and allowed
foreign fighters to find their way home.
Some fear that this could create a new
terrorist threat, essentially nullifying
the six-year campaign to defeat the
group, which has seen its caliphate
collapse thanks to the efforts Kurdish
and Iraqi ground forces as well as those
of the international coalition’s air and
ground campaign.
Although a ceasefire is in place, bro-
kered between Ankara and Moscow,
and embargoes have been lifted, con-
sternation remains about Turkey’s ac-
tivities elsewhere. The local development of armed UAVs like the Baykar Makina Bayraktar TB2 has
Ankara remains frustrated at the al- become a matter of national pride for Turkey, and larger systems are on the way.
liance’s reluctance to recognize Kurd-
ish groups such as the YPG and YPD
as terrorists. This frustration became that will enable the country to receive of a complete prototype in 2020.
public when it emerged that Turkey the F-35s, but the U.S. remains insistent Turkish UAV development contin-
had blocked defense plans for the Baltic that Turkey cannot have both. In Octo- ues, with dozens of armed systems
States and Poland, although the issue ber, reports that Turkey would initiate a now in service with Turkish forces and
appears to have been resolved at the buy of Sukhoi Su-35 fighters from Rus- exported to Qatar and Ukraine. The
recent NATO meeting in London. The sia were revealed to be false by Defense most recent milestone was the first
country also remains angry at Washing- Minister Hulusi Akar, and confusion flight of Baykar Makina’s twin-engine
ton over its unwillingness to hand over remains around the circumstances for medium-altitude, long-endurance
the exiled cleric Fetullah Gulen, whom the S-400’s procurement. Ankara is still 5.5-metric-ton Akinci in early December.
Turkey asserts was behind the failed looking to develop its own air and mis- Turkish Aerospace’s own twin-engine
coup against Erdogan in July 2016. sile defense system potentially using Aksungur development of the Anka
The delivery of the first battery of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system as flew for the first time in March. Turkey
the Russian-made S-400 air and missile a baseline, although little progress has is also investing in a stand-off jammer
defense system means Turkey’s indus- been made on this. capability using the Bombardier Glob-
trial and military participation in the Meanwhile, Turkey appears to have al Express and developing upgrade
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will be termi- stepped up its activities in the Aegean, packages for the F-16 Fighting Falcon,
nated. Turkish F-35s that have already antagonizing Greece with incursions including a locally developed active,
been produced will not be delivered. into Greek airspace and waters with electronically scanned array radar. c
Wings
of change
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DEFENSE PROFILES
Ongoing Political Crisis Holds Up the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at 7%

of GDP. It is not clear whether a new
Israel’s Largest Defense Deals Knesset would approve such a proposal.
In the near term, the IDF wants to
> ECONOMIC PRESSURES ARE INCREASING ON DEFENSE SPENDING move forward on several deals that
could be a boon for Boeing. Israel has
> LOCAL CAPABILITY FOR OFFENSIVE, DEFENSIVE MISSILES GROWS ordered 50 Lockheed Martin F-35As
in three batches since 2010, but its
Steve Trimble Washington air force is considering a deal for a
fleet of McDonnell Douglas F-15 Israel
M
ajor decisions for Israel’s de- package authorized by Advanced fighters
fense industry and military ac- the U.S. government in ISRAEL derived from the U.S.
quisition system remain on hold 2018. Acquisitions of Air Force’s F-15EX. A
entering the new year as a monthslong fighters, tankers, he- 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET possible deal for eight
political crisis continues to paralyze licopters and possibly 76 billion shekels (proposed) Boeing KC-46A tank-
plans for further consolidation, struc- tiltrotors are hanging ($21.7 billion) ers has been discussed
tural reform and contract signings. in the balance. PERCENT OF GDP for months. Mean-
Two inconclusive elections in 2019 Political turmoil in 5.8 while, a competition
set the stage for unprecedented po- Israel does not change to replace the CH-53D
litical dysfunction in Israel, with the the country’s strate- PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS continues between the
Knesset dissolved since May and Prime gic environment. The 178,000 active duty Sikorsky CH-53K and
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—the ministry is investing in Boeing CH-47F. If the
leader of a caretaker government— advanced fighters, standoff weapons, less expensive CH-47F is selected,
clinging to power while indicted on and increasingly sophisticated missile Israel also could acquire Bell Boeing
V-22 tiltrotors.
The Arrow 3 interceptor, tested As the air force looks to recapitalize,
Israel has strengthened its defenses
successfully on July 28, gives
against long-range missile attacks from
Israel a defensive counter to Iran. In July, the Arrow 3 interceptor
Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles. was tested successfully against a threat
representing the Iranian Shahab-3 me-
dium-range ballistic missile. During the
test, conducted in Alaska, the IDF used
a U.S. TPY-2 radar to track the target.
As the system becomes operational, Is-
rael will rely on the homegrown Oren
radar for tracking and a local supply
U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY
chain to build up a stockpile of missiles

to defend against a salvo attack.
A capability for early warning
against such attacks is also under de-
velopment. IAI has been commissioned
to deliver a group of optical nanonsat-
ellites that would supplement coverage
charges of fraud, bribery and breach defenses in response to the existential provided by the Offeq constellation.
of public trust. Since no political party threat posed by Iran and rocket attacks Israel also continues to improve its ca-
was able to claim a Knesset majority from paramilitary organizations and pacity for offensive, long-range missile
by the Dec. 11 deadline, a third round of terrorists in the Gaza Strip. strikes. On Dec. 6, the defense ministry
elections scheduled for March sets the Internally, domestic economic pres- released a cryptic statement saying the
stage for a constitutional crisis—with sures are growing. In November, the country’s defense establishment con-
one of the leading candidates at the Organization for Economic Cooper- ducted a preplanned test of a rocket
center of a criminal prosecution. ation and Development slashed the propulsion system. Local media sourc-
The political crisis comes at an inop- growth forecast for Israel’s gross does pointed to the possibility of a test of
portune time for a domestic industry mestic product (GDP) in 2020 from the Jericho intercontinental ballistic
and military awaiting critical decisions. 3.3% to 2.9%, with potentially lower missile, with the Center for Strategic
As public listings for both Israel tax revenues raising pressure on the and International Studies noting that
Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Rafael finance ministry’s goal of achieving a plans for a Jericho IIIA ICBM include
loom, IAI is jockeying to win support budget deficit lower than 3% of GDP. a new rocket motor.
for a merger between the state-owned Meanwhile, plans for defense spend- Israel’s defense industry relies on
defense companies—albeit with a re- ing are in flux because of the political the export market, but new challeng-
luctant Rafael. Meanwhile, the defense uncertainty. In October, Netanyahu, es have appeared as China and Russia
ministry is anxious to sign contracts us- who is also the country’s defense min- have stepped up efforts to win arms
ing the 10-year, $38 billion military aid ister, called for fixing the budget of deals abroad. c
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DEFENSE PROFILES
Moves by Iran Prompt Defense Qatar is taking a similar approach, cre-

ating Barzan Holdings to set up a local
Equipment Buildup in the Middle East defense industry and manage joint ven-
tures with major defense companies.
> ATTACKS BY IRAN SPUR GULF NEIGHBORS TO BOLSTER DEFENSES With many Middle Eastern countries
having secured their big budget fighter
> MANY NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST WORK TO ADD CAPABILITIES AND purchases, they are now either in the
INVEST TO STRENGTHEN LOCAL DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE process of taking delivery of new com-
bat aircraft or preparing to do so.
Qatar’s ambitions remain the
most eye-opening, with plans to pur-
chase no fewer than three fleets of
fourth-generation fighters, growing
its fighter fleet eight-fold from its cur-
rent 12 Dassault Mirage 2000s. Qatar
has already taken delivery of its first
Dassault Rafales and begun building a
new airbase on the west coast of Qatar
to house them. Following closely be-
hind will be Boeing F-15QA Advanced
The UAE ordered two more Eagles and Eurofighter Typhoons pur-
Saab GlobalEye airborne sensor chased through the UK government.
platforms at the Dubai Airshow, bringing In the UAE, Abu Dhabi is intently
focused on ordering the Lockheed
its planned fleet to five. Martin F-35 but is unlikely to be able
SAAB to do so until the early 2020s. As a re-
Tony Osborne London sult, it has begun upgrades for both its
Dassault Mirage 2000-9 and Lockheed
W
hile military operations are on a Saudi oil refinery with drones Martin F-16 Block 60 fleets and is mak-
tapering off as the Saudi-led and cruise missiles, impacting global ing investments in its support fleets,
coalition and Houthis seek oil production. announcing plans to double its Airbus
an end to the bloody five-year conflict Iran’s actions prompted the U.S. to A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport
in Yemen, Riyadh remains subject to strengthen its presence in the region, fleet. It will also increase its fleet of
several arms embargoes, notably from deploying to Saudi air bases bombers Saab GlobalEye Swing-Role Surveil-
Germany and more recently South Af- and fighters, including F-22 Raptors lance System aircraft (based on the
rica, over its conduct and the humani- and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Bombardier Global 6000 business jet)
tarian crisis that followed. Adding to the regional tensions, from three to five. First deliveries of
As fervent allies of Riyadh, both Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the the airborne early warning platform
the UK and U.S. have been prevent- United Arab Emirates are continu- are planned for Spring 2020.
ed from making transfers of arms. A ing their blockade of Qatar, having Kuwait is also gearing up for the de-
court appeal by anti-war campaigners accused Doha of supporting regional livery of its first Eurofighter Typhoons
in June prompted the British govern- terrorism in 2017. in late 2020. The Kuwaiti examples
ment to halt the issuing of new ex- The response in many of these will be the first Eurofighters equipped
port licenses to Saudi Arabia, while countries has been to strengthen their with the Captor-E active, electronical-
in Washington lawmakers questioned defense postures as well as invest in ly scanned array radar. These will be
ongoing arms transfers to the Saudis, their own national defense industrial joined in short order by Boeing F/A-18
effectively blocking them before the capabilities. In Saudi Arabia, this task Super Hornets equipped with confor-
resolutions were vetoed by President is being taken on by Saudi Arabia Mil- mal fuel tanks.
Donald Trump. itary Industries (SAMI) with require- Along with ongoing deliveries
But as always in the Middle East, ments driven by the country’s Gener- of Boeing F-15SA and refurbished
as one fire is dowsed, a match is lit al Authority for Military Industries F-15SRs, Saudi Arabia is also taking
elsewhere. (GAMI). SAMI has acquired much delivery of locally assembled BAE
On top of the decision by President of the kingdom’s defense industry, Systems Hawk jet trainers and gear-
Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to bringing under a management um- ing up for enhancements to its naval
invade Northern Syria, prompting brella international joint ventures for aviation capabilities with the purchase
concerns about the specter of new shipbuilding, sensor production and of Sikorsky MH-60R anti-submarine
life being breathed into the Islamic aircraft and helicopter assembly. warfare helicopters. Ongoing deliv-
State group, the Gulf states are again More advanced is the UAE, where eries of Russian-supplied MiG-29M2
having to nervously look north. There the government recently placed an “Fulcrums” to Egypt and reported
they see their old foe Iran ratcheting order for the locally developed—albe- planned purchase of the Sukhoi Su-35
up tensions by seizing oil tankers in it with a Brazilian partner—Calidus “Flankers” are causing consternation
the Gulf and then being accused by B-250 light attack aircraft, to be armed in the U.S. and could trigger sanctions
Riyadh of masterminding an attack with locally developed small munitions. against Cairo. c
H-20 Should Be Close as Avic ferring to the timing of this aircraft and
the H-20 together, the Pentagon implied
Hints at Next Fighter their development schedules might
not be far apart. If so, the JH-XX also
> PENTAGON SUGGESTS JH-XX IS NOT FAR BEHIND LONG-RANGE BOMBER should appear in the next few years.
Several factors taken together sug-
> THE H-6 HAS A HIGHLY SUPERSONIC AIR-TO-SURFACE MISSILE gest the JH-XX will be conceptually
similar to but larger than the U.S.
Bradley Perrett Beijing F-111 of the 1960s: the thrust of likely
engines, the “JH” and
I CHINA
f there was a disappointment for Why the H-20 is “fighter-bomber” cat-
observers of Chinese military still hidden must be egories and the Penta-
technology in 2019, it was the non- a matter for specula- 2018 DEFENSE BUDGET gon’s mention that the
appearance of the Avic Xian H-20. tion. Conceivably, it 1.654 trillion yuan type will carry air-to-
Official statements in 2018 gave good could have been flown ($236.8 billion) air missiles and have
reason to think China would show the secretly. But since the medium range.
PERCENT OF GDP
long-range bomber in 2019—but it did Avic installation pre- Both new bomber
1.9
not. Yet that probably makes revelation sumed to be handling types will contribute to
of the critical new weapon even more the project is the one PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS the strategy of ward-
likely in 2020. at Xian, which also has 2 million ing off support for U.S.
The JH-XX strike aircraft, probably nationally important friends and allies that
a high-performance medium bomber, but publicly visible test-flight facilities, China could conceivably attack, most
may not be far behind the H-20. But the aircraft easily would have been ob- notably Taiwan. Joining anti-ship bal-
immediate new Chinese fighter devel- served if it had flown. listic missiles in the role, the H-6 has
opments should be limited to current Anther possibility is that develop- been the initial bomber element in the
production types such as the Avic ment hit some unexpected difficulty in strategy. Subsonic and hardly sur-
Chengdu J-20, while the J-31 from Avic the second half of 2018, perhaps in pro- vivable, it must be kept well clear of
fighters and surface-to-air systems
CASIC
as it flies to a position for launching

Avic is keen to exploit the size of the J-20 for multiple roles. cruise missiles—but its weapons are
increasingly threatening.
The latest is the DF-100, which was
purportedly paraded in canisters in
China’s Oct. 1 National Day parade
and revealed in the flesh in a grainy
video posted by China’s rocket force a
few days before. An official magazine,
Naval & Merchant Ships, also described
it. (The weapon’s name is sometimes
given as CJ-100.)
A new bomber version, the H-6N,
appeared at the same time as the
missile, with a belly recess that Hong
Kong’s South China Morning Post said
was intended for carrying the DF-100
Shenyang, first shown as a technology pulsion. China has struggled to develop or a supersonic rocket reconnaissance
demonstrator in 2012, is made ready satisfactory aero engines. drone called DF-8 or WZ-8. In the vid-
for service. Work has begun on the next The H-20 is expected to have an all- eo, the DF-100 appeared to be designed
Chinese fighter, which an industry offi- wing or blended-wing-body configura- for highly supersonic flight; according
cial says, probably conservatively, will tion. Its stealthy design will help it pass to Naval & Merchant Ships, it cruises at
appear no later than 2035. undetected between widely spaced na- Mach 4 and can sprint at Mach 4.5.
China first acknowledged a long- val radars on islands and ships in the Unevenness of the taper at the nose
range bomber program in 2016 and Pacific, providing a leap in capability suggests the DF-100 has an inlet there
referred to the new type as the H-20 from the current Chinese bomber, the like that of the Boeing HyFly hyper-
in August 2018. Such an announcement easily detected Avic Xian H-6. It should sonic missile demonstrator tested a
normally would precede unavoidable also fly farther. decade ago. The HyFly inlet fed a ram-
public observation of a prototype. Two In January 2019, the Pentagon esti- jet that pushed the missile to scramjet
months later a military expert, no mated 2025 as the earliest likely oper- takeover speeds in the range of Mach
doubt authorized and well-informed, ational point for both the H-20 and a 3.5–4.0. Toward the rear of the DF-100
told state media flight-testing would type variously called a medium-range main body (that is, ahead of the boost-
begin soon. All that prompted expec- bomber, a tactical bomber and a fighter) are shapes that could be auxiliary
tations for the H-20 appearance in 2019 er-bomber; this is the aircraft that has ramjets. Conceivably, their role would
but that did not happen. also been reported as the JH-XX. By re- be to accelerate the weapon between
DEFENSE PROFILES
booster burnout speed and a velocity in 2017, so passing the same milestone
at which the main, cruise ramjet, fed by for the next fighter in 2035 would imply
the nose inlet, could take over. The DF-100 an 18-year interval between types. It is
Such externally mounted ramjet most unlikely that China, striving to
engines are increasingly common. In is designed catch up with the U.S., is intending to
such a configuration, the first stage for highly wait so long. Indeed, Wang repeatedly
would be an indispensable part of the supersonic stresses in the interview that programs
weapon however it was deployed, in flight. must progress faster. “The new situa-
contrast to missiles that have rocket tion requires us to significantly shorten
boosters for launch from the surface type-development cycles, reduce re-
but not from aircraft. search and development costs and still
The proportions of the launcher provide capabilities that can compete
vehicles and missile canisters in the with those of strong enemies,” he says
parade suggested a large size. Where- in one such reference. He does not say
as four-axle launch trucks each carry what that “new situation” is, but pres-
three DF-10 subsonic cruise missiles, sure from the armed forces for quicker
which are larger than Raytheon Tom- results would not be a bad guess.
CHINESE ROCKET FORCE
ahawks, the DF-100 trucks each have As to the method of development,
five axles and only two missile can- and long-range fast interception, escort Wang says Chinese engineers must pay
isters. The implication is that two and deep strike,” Avic says. attention to what is going on elsewhere.
DF-100s weigh more than three DF-10s. After the Chengdu works beat Avic “While achieving independent capaci-
Almost relentless developments in Shenyang for this program, the latter ty for research, we must understand
Chinese bomber aviation suggest to created the J-31 technology demonstra- the direction of foreign development,
Australian analyst Malcolm Davis of tor, which at first was not wanted by the he says. “Core technology cannot be
the Australian Strategic Policy Insti- military. It is now being developed for bought but, in certain areas, ideas can
tute that this is an area where more naval and air force service. Prototypes be borrowed.” But, while absorbing
news can be confidently expected in of the operational version have not ap- foreign ideas, China needs to innovate:
2020. The H-20, however, is the only peared but should not be far away. “This will promote the modernity of
new aircraft type of any category that Then there is the question of the products and shorten technology re-
is likely to appear in 2020, adds Davis. fighter that comes next. This was men- search cycles,” he notes.
In the years after the J-20 first ap- tioned by Avic Chief Technical Expert And technological missteps are
peared in 2011, its primary intended Wang Haifeng in an interview that hard to avoid, he adds, signaling a will-
role generally was seen as air-to-air China’s Aeronautical Manufacturing ingness to take developmental risks.
Wang is based at a research institute
YAN SIMING/INTERNATIONAL AVIATION
at Chengdu.
Funds for these and other programs
are coming from a defense budget that
is growing much more slowly than in
the last decade—for example, 17.8% in
2007, before adjustment for inflation.
The official budget and unofficial es-
timates of total defense pending tend
to track economic growth, so Chinese
military spending slows with GDP,
Launchers for DF-100s took part in China’s Oct. 1, 2019, National more or less. The total allocation is
Day parade. The missile can also be carried by the H-6N. generally close to 1.9% of GDP, accord-
ing to annual estimates by the Stock-
combat and especially penetrating an Technology magazine published online holm International Peace Research
enemy fighter barrier to destroy vul- in early 2019. Institute (SIPRI).
nerable but indispensable support sys- “We have chosen technology de- China’s GDP in 2019 will be up by
tems, such as tankers and surveillance velopment directions according to 6.1% on 2018, according to the Econo-
aircraft. But Avic is keen to exploit the a war [concept] we have designed,” mist Intelligence Unit. The official bud-
type’s large size for other functions, an Wang told the magazine in reference get for 2020 can be expected to rise by
industry source says. to fighter design, but without setting roughly that much plus an allowance
Avic’s brochure for the J-20 indi- out the specific research. “Consider- for inflation and will be announced in
cates that multirole potential: It calls ing the characteristics and maturity the first quarter of the year. It will not
the type a heavy, stealthy fifth-gener- of those technological directions, we include all military spending, however.
ation fighter renowned for dominance have adopted various organizational Spending on developing and produc-
in medium- and long-range air combat models for pre-research and research. ing equipment has been given a rising
and excellent capability in ground and I believe that no later than 2035 our share of the budget: 41.3% in 2016, up
marine precision strike. “Major oper- current efforts will turn into a weapon from 33.2% in 2010. The figure dropped
ational missions include seizing and for protecting the seas and skies.” a little in 2017, so China may have fin-
maintaining air superiority, medium- The J-20 was declared operational ished that rebalancing. c
Japan Funds Future Fighter has been reached between the two
governments.
Concept Design The Joint New Air-to-Air Missile
(JNAAM), an effort of Japan and
> THE FUTURE FIGHTER DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE BUDGET Britain to put a Japanese seeker with
an active, electronically scanned ar-
> BUT THE WORK DOES NOT LOOK LIKE PROGRAM LAUNCH ray on an MBDA Meteor ramjet mis-
sile, will enter its third year of devel-
Asia-Pacific Staff opment in 2020. The first test shot is
planned for 2023.
J
apan will proceed with concept “Because the finance On the other hand,
design of its Future Fighter in minister agreed to the JAPAN the finance ministry
is demanding private
the coming fiscal year following budget, concept design
finance ministry agreement to spend will start next year,” 2020 DEFENSE BUDGET companies such as
¥11.1 billion ($110 million) on the work. Kono Taro said, sug- ¥5.32 trillion MHI (airframe) and
The funding is part of a defense bud- gesting a name change ($49.0 billion) IHI (engine) invest
get that will be 1.2% higher than for for the program. “It PERCENT OF GDP
their own money in
fiscal 2019. has been called the Fu- 0.97
the Future Fighter to
The amount of spending on the Fu- ture Fighter until now, ensure contractors are
ture Fighter suggests a greater effort but since we are going PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS fully incentivized to
than was put into concept designs to start development 247,154 prevent failure. Also,
earlier in this decade. The aircraft is I want to call it the the finance ministry is
intended to enter service in the 2030s Next-Generation Fighter from now on.” trying to reduce the profit margin of
and replace the Mitsubishi Heavy In- Parliament has not yet approved the contractors, arguing that the current
dustries (MHI) F-2. budget, but the ruling Liberal Demo- method of pricing by multiplying an
Creating a concept design, however agreed profit margin to manufactur-
well-funded, does not normally count This wind-tunnel model depicts the ing costs makes contractors profit
as the launch of a program, which is underside of one of several Future from increased costs.
what the defense ministry has called Fighter design concepts. The most expensive item in the
for in the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2020 defense budget request is ballis-
2020. Nonetheless, Defense Minister tic missile defense. The ministry seeks
Kono Taro stressed that fiscal 2020 ¥116.3 billion for vertical launch
would be the first year in which devel- systems for missiles on ships and
opment of the Future Fighter would at two Aegis Ashore sites. The
be specifically funded. money also is intended to pay
Japan is considering some level for SM-3 Block IIA and PAC-3
of partnership with British and U.S. MOT
O MSE and upgraded Type 3 me-
UWA
companies for the Future Fighter. YU K dium-range surface-to-air missiles as
Candidates are BAE Systems, Lock- cratic well as a command-and-control sys-
heed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Party con- tem upgrade.
probably Boeing. BAE’s offer involves trols the legis- Other major items in the 2020 bud-
participation in the British Tempest lature. get request and their total amounts
fighter program, not necessarily using The earlier Future are four Boeing KC-46A aerial-refu-
the same airframe. Fighter concept designs, eling tankers for ¥112.1 billion and six
Kono Taro and Finance Minis- culminating with one de- Lockheed Martin F-35B fighters at
ter Aso Taro agreed to the ¥11.1 vised in fiscal 2014 and called ¥84.6 billion. Japan plans to buy a total
billion allocation in a meeting on 26DMU, were for an unusually of 42 F-35Bs for two Izumo-class heli-
Dec. 17. In August, the defense large fighter with great endurance copter carriers, which will be convert-
ministry inserted a line in its and eight air-to-air missiles carried ed to light aircraft carriers. ¥3.1 billion
budget request for “launch” of the internally, including six of long range. is being sought to convert the Izumo.
Future Fighter program but included MHI is a likely prime contractor. The 2020 budget also includes
no suggested funding level. It wanted The rise in the overall fiscal 2020 three Lockheed Martin F-35A con-
a program office established. defense budget will be the eighth in ventional-takeoff fighters for a total
The money that the finance ministry succession, following the accession of of ¥31.0 billion. Other aircraft to be
has agreed to allocate will be added to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2012. procured are three Kawasaki P-1
¥17.7 billion already in the defense min- The budget may end up close to ¥6 maritime patrollers for ¥63.7 billion,
istry’s budget request for research on trillion if a supplementary budget to seven Mitsubishi SH-60K naval ship-
integrating missiles, sensors, artificial cover increased annual payments to borne helicopters for ¥50.6 billion,
intelligence and a drone that would ac- the U.S. is added to it later. In Novem- eight Mitsubishi UH-60J air force
company the Future Fighter. Another ber 2019, President Donald Trump search-and--rescue helicopters at
¥1.9 billion is for research on forma- asked Japan to quadruple annual pay- ¥39.0 billion and three Kawasaki CH-
tion flying, remote control and the hu- ments for U.S. forces stationed there 47JA army transport helicopters for
man-machine interface for the drone. to around $8 billion. No agreement ¥23.7 billion. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
KF-X Funding Surges In Indonesia did not contribute to

KF-X development from early 2017
South Korea’s 2020 Budget until January 2019, when KAI said the
Southeast Asian country made a con-
> PARLIAMENT FULLY APPROVES REQUESTED BUDGET LEVEL tribution of 132 billion won. Whether
Indonesia has paid since then is un-
> FIGHTER PROGRAM IS RISING TOWARD PEAK DEVELOPMENT SPENDING clear. In July, the Chosun Ilbo newspa-
per said Indonesia had contributed a
Kim Minseok Seoul and Bradley Perrett Beijing total of 220 billion won so far of the
520 billion won it had been due to pay.
F
unding for the Korea Aerospace first delivery in late South Korea intends
Industries (KAI) KF-X fighter 2026 following com- to buy 120 KF-Xs to re-
program will surge in 2020 as pletion of flight test- SOUTH KOREA place Lockheed Martin
part of a 7.4% rise in the South Korean ing in the middle of 2020 DEFENSE BUDGET F-16s. Indonesia has a
defense budget. The parliament has that year. Accordingly, 51.15 trillion won ($44 billion) reported requirement
fully approved the defense ministry’s the program is due to for 50 aircraft.
request for the coming year. last 11 years. Because PERCENT OF GDP KAI contracted with
The budget provides 1.40 trillion it was launched with 2.6 MBDA in November to
won ($1.19 billion) for KF-X devel- a budget of 8.82 tril- PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS integrate the Meteor
opment and 1.79 trillion won for the lion won, the average 580,000 long-range air-to-air
acquisition of Lockheed Martin F-35 should be 800 billion missile on the KF-X.
Lightnings in 2020. There were few won a year. That in- This followed a 2017
cuts from the defense ministry’s re- cludes an average of about 160 billion statement by the ministry that the
quest, and the released funds were won a year from development partner fighter would use the Meteor and the
reallocated to preserve the total. Indonesia. Diehl IRIS-T short-range weapon. The
ministry intends to use U.S. missiles in
BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST
the future.
KAI presented this KF-X mockup at
Elsewhere in the budget, a request
an air show in Seoul in 2019. for 364 billion won to buy training he-
licopters under the TH-X program was
wholly rejected. But sources say DAPA,
the ministry’s purchasing office, was
not in a position to proceed with the
acquisition next year. Proposed spend-
ing of 17.4 billion won on air combat-
maneuvering instrumentation pods
was halved for unknown reasons.
The F-35 funding (1.79 trillion won)
will pay for deliveries of aircraft to
follow the 13 F-35s reportedly re-
ceived in 2018 and 2019. South Korea
is due to take delivery of 27 more air-
craft by the end of 2021, completing
Authorized spending totals 50.15 The high 2020 budget is consistent its current planned acquisition of 40
trillion won. The 7.4% rise comes well with the common pattern in which under program F-X 3.
ahead of likely growth in nominal GDP, an aircraft’s development costs rise That acquisition was originally sup-
so military spending should increase as to a peak just before the beginning of posed to include 60 fighters, so the air
a fraction of the economy. flight testing, as the program employs force wants the defense ministry to buy
The KF-X allocation is more than its full complement of engineers and 20 more F-35As in what would become
double the 664 billion won budgeted for builds prototypes. A shortfall in Indo- F-X 4—but that procurement probably
the fighter program in 2019. The dra- nesian funding also could be a factor would not occur before the middle of
matically higher funding will be spent in the surge of money flowing from the 2020s. The navy is pushing for
in the fifth year of the development South Korean taxpayers. some of those aircraft to be F-35Bs for
program for the twin-engine aircraft. “Indonesia has requested a re- operation from a future aircraft carrier
KAI began building the first KF-X duction in its development costs or flattop assault ship. If naval opera-
prototype in 2019; that aircraft is due and an increase in the technology tion is not needed, the Boeing F-15 also
to be rolled out in June 2021 and to fly transferred to it,” Wang Chunghong, may be a candidate for F-X 4. Before
in May 2022. It is one of four single-seat director of the ministry’s Defense then, the current force of 40 F-15Ks
prototypes that KAI will build, an in- Acquisition Program Administration should enter an upgrade program.
dustry source says, adding that there (DAPA), told the parliament’s national In 2020, the air force is likely to
also will be two twin-seaters. defense commission on Dec. 4. There be continuing to integrate the oper-
Powered by General Electric F414- has been no indication since then that ations of its four new Airbus A330
GE-400K engines, the KF-X is due for an agreement has been reached. MRTT tankers. c
FAST FIVE WITH HONEYWELL
What is the mission of Honeywell Aerospace this broader picture
Advanced Technology? across all levels of
A. Technology initiatives below technology readiness aviation that we
level 6 are under the purview of the Advanced serve, particularly as
Technology organization, from atomic clocks to things become more
propulsion engines to vapor cycle systems to avionics. connected and more
MIKE STEWART
Vice President Advanced Technologies
We work to tie these together for our commercial integrated. In the Honeywell Aerospace
customers, but also DARPA and to support the end, AI is a tool, and
U.S. Air Force Research Lab, the Navy, Army and we want to be able to Mike Stewart, previously
a corporate fellow within
the space markets. The differentiator for us is our qualify it to a higher Honeywell Aerospace, today
breadth—we fully understand every type of part on standard of safety. leads the organization’s Advanced
Technology organization across
an aircraft, and even how they can be used in other
general aviation, commercial,
vehicles. We have been a part of every manned space You also mentioned defense and space.
mission. We have 110 Fellows—subject matter experts autonomy as a major
who have created the industry standards for key factor in aerospace.
technologies used throughout aerospace and defense. What is Honeywell’s focus in this area?
A. Autonomy and urban air mobility play together.
What do you see as the biggest challenges as the UAM is a small segment but represents signifi cant
industry moves forward? change—a different kind of pilot whose training may
A. Technology is moving at such a lightening pace. not be as in-depth, who may be backed up on the
The urban air mobility challenge has forced things ground. We want to be able to put that backup in
to happen at a speed that simply would not have place when it’s needed, regardless of how many pilots
happened otherwise. It is pushing all markets are in the cockpit. We also know that wind tunnels
forward, from electrification of the aircraft to and other situations will affect air vehicles traveling
automation. Our job is to take the very complex among buildings. Sensors, weight, the ability to cool
possibilities and simplify them so that they are usable electronics on the vehicle—all these technologies are
and can affect the customer’s desired outcome. At evolving quickly and we’re well positioned to work
the same time, we have to be able to certify the use of with UAM OEMs from technology to certification. We
technologies such as machine learning and artificial are also working on solutions for helping pilots on
intelligence. We have to be able to prove that out, and long flights, to allow a single pilot in the flightdeck for
Honeywell is working to make that possible. Most longer periods of time.
important, we have to simplify the interface so that
the technologies can be used to improve safety and What are the strengths of the Honeywell
efficiency of flight. Aerospace Advanced Technology
organization today?
Artificial intelligence is at the forefront of so A. Our investment in technology is as high as I’ve
much technology development—how is this seen in my quarter century with Honeywell. The
affecting Honeywell? pace is so much faster, and we have to keep up with
A. We are applying AI and autonomy in a progressive that pace. We look across the world for where that
way, beginning with low-criticality applications of AI investment should be made. We are invested here
and machine learning, to prove it out. Longer term, in the U.S. but also the broader global environment,
we are looking at AI as an enabler to help identify whether that means bringing technologies to bear on
conditions and address situations that have not small satellite development or addressing CleanSky
been anticipated by a pilot or user, and then offering initiatives in Europe. This is our tradition—we were
recommendations on how to deal with a situation. the first to develop a digital map, the first flight
AI and machine learning are a big help in integrating management system, the first auto pilot. We intend
to play a similarly broad role in this new and much
accelerated technology environment.
Sponsored Content by
DEFENSE PROFILES
From Bogota to the Beagle Strait, ered basic trainer designed by com-
posite-material specialist Lancair and
South American Countries Look Inward assembled by CIAC for the Colombian
Air Force.
> EMBRAER R-99M, AV-TM 300 MISSILE AND KC-390s SET FOR DELIVERY That experience with the T-90 Calima
encouraged Chile’s state-owned aero-
> COLOMBIA AND CHILE TEAM UP ON T-35 REPLACEMENT space company ENAER to seek a part-
nership with Colombia’s burgeoning
aerospace industry. In July, ENAER
and CIAC signed an agreement to
collaborate on future projects. In the
1980s, ENAER delivered the Piper-de-
The scheduled delivery of the first
R-99M in early 2020 kicks off sev-
eral efforts to deliver homegrown
capabilities to air forces throughout
South America.
signed T-35 Pillan trainer aircraft, and
the Chilean Air Force now wants a
replacement. The collaboration with
BRAZIL AIR FORCE
CIAC could allow ENAER access to
Steve Trimble the Colombian company’s recent ex-
perience on the composite T-90.
S
outh America’s appetite for fi- joins a delivery stream to the air force The T-35’s successor would not be
nancing development of military next year that includes more KC-390 the first attempt to develop a multina-
aircraft and missiles continues Millennium airlifters and the Avibras tional basic trainer on the continent. A
on a steady growth trajectory, with AV-TM 300 ground- and air-launched decade ago, the Union of South Amer-
several key milestones scheduled to cruise missile. Meanwhile, Brazilian ican Nations (Unasur) launched the
occur in 2020. machinists are preparing to open a IA-73 project at the Latin American
On a continent that has seen only final assembly line near Sao Paulo Aerospace and Defense exhibition in
scattered and brief armed conflicts for Brazil’s version of the Saab F-39 Rio de Janeiro. The intent was to de-
between nations on the mainland for Gripen, which entered flight testing velop a joint successor for the T-35 and
more than a century, military expendi- in 2019. Embraer E-312 Tucano trainers, but the
tures tend to be focused on defeating Brazil’s sophistication and indus- project was canceled as support for the
internal threats to law and order such trial depth for aerospace technology Unasur organization itself evaporated.
as criminal gangs and drug smugglers, remains the outlier in South America, Argentina’s FADEA attempted to
and acquisition programs usually rely but other countries are taking steps in revive the concept as a national pro-
on the expertise of aerospace and de- that direction. gram. The composite IA-100 demon-
fense industries from the U.S. to Israel Colombia, in particular, is relying strator achieved first flight in August
to China. on military-funded projects to develop 2017. A successful demonstration
But homegrown technologies are an aircraft design and assembly ca- phase was supposed to be followed by
becoming more popular throughout pability within an industry sustained series production of the IA-74 aircraft,
the continent, as national industries mainly by maintenance, repair and but the project disappeared from FA-
are set in 2020 to deliver upgraded overhaul work. Bogota-based CIAC is DEA’s books within months of the IA-
surveillance aircraft, new airlifters, set in 2020 to enter a codevelopment 100 first flight.
cruise missiles and advanced jet train- phase with Airbus on the Atlante 2, a Instead, FADEA has focused its
ers, as well as to partner with foreign 750-kg (1,650-lb.) surveillance version limited resources on a revived produc-
companies to design and assemble of the MALE UAS initially funded by tion line of the IA-63 Pampa. The third
fighters and medium-altitude, long-en- the Spanish government. A prototype generation of the jet-powered lead-in
durance (MALE) unmanned aircraft of the Atlante 2 could enter flight trainer entered development in 2013,
systems (UAS). testing in 2020 or 2021, preceding a achieved first flight in 2016 and com-
The first new capability scheduled planned eight-year production pro- pleted first delivery to the Argentine
to enter the South American fleet gram in Colombia. Air Force in February 2019. In July, it
in 2020 is the R-99M, an upgraded The Atlante 2 project builds on CIAC’s appeared that FADEA had scored a
version of the Embraer ERJ-145 jet capabilities using a steady, step-by- breakthrough on the export market,
equipped with a Saab Erieye radar for step approach. CIAC previously devel- with the announcement by the govern-
the Brazilian Air Force. The R-99M is oped the hand-launched Equites UAS ment of Guatemala of a signed contact
the latest example of Brazil’s reemer- and the 75-kg Quimbaya tactical UAS. for two IA-63 Pampa 3 aircraft. But the
gence over the last decade as a global More recently, the company received contract was subsequently canceled
military aerospace export power, a a military airworthiness certificate for after questions were raised about the
status it last held in the mid-1980s. It the T-90 Calima, a piston-engine-pow- transparency of the process. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
After Kashmir Spat, Indian Defense truncated a naval order for Boeing
P-8I Long-Range Maritime Recon-
Budget Lags Security Needs naissance aircraft from 10 to six. And
the army slashed its order for sniper
> BUDGETS SQUEEZED BY PERSONNEL PRESSURE AND CURRENCY RATES rifles. The three services have re-
quested an urgent infusion of more
> DEFENSE ACQUISITION COUNCIL REDUCES PLANNED P-8 PURCHASE than $450 million to pay for critical
requirements.
Saurabh Joshi New Delhi “There should still be enough of a
budget to pay for com-
I
ndia faced major security challenges economic activity in mitted liabilities like
in 2019, after a terrorist attack on a India. INDIA the [Dassault] Rafale
police convoy in Jammu and Kash- And although mod- 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET and [Almaz] S-400
mir in February killed 40 personnel, ernization accounts 4.3 trillion rupees ($61 billion) orders,” says Behera.
leading to Indian airstrikes in Paki- are up nearly 10% “But anything more
stan-occupied Kashmir and an air de- across the board, ac- PERCENT OF GDP would be over opti-
fense battle in which an Indian MiG-21 cording to the Institute 2.04 mistic. It looks like it
crashed (AW&ST March 11-24, p. 9). for Defense Studies PERSONNEL UNDER ARMS will take one or two
In August, the change in constitu- and Analyses (IDSA) 1.4 million active duty years for things to
tional status of the state of Jammu and in New Delhi, those in- turn around and start
Kashmir, and its bifurcation for direct creases are struggling climbing again.”
rule from New Delhi, has kept tensions to keep pace with inflation and global It is just as well that none of the
with Pakistan simmering. exchange rates. In 2018, the annual av- larger acquisition programs for fight-
But the $61 billion military budget erage exchange rate for $1 was 68.383 ers, helicopters and submarines are
announced in July did not increase as Indian rupees; in late 2019, $1 is worth anywhere close to fruition. At this
a result of these ongoing tensions. In- 70.361 rupees. point, maintaining current levels of
dia’s defense accounts continue to face Will next year be better? Not likely. spending alone might be a real ac-
pressure from within and without. The “There will be some growth—maybe complishment.
military continues to struggle with the 7% or 8%,” says Laxman Kumar Behe- “There are no large acquisition pro-
perennial problem of buying defense ra at the IDSA. “The important thing grams that are close to completion of
equipment and even may reduce is money for capital expenditure, but their process right now, so there’s no
planned purchases of key equipment. the economy is simply not generating question of having to find a budget for
One internal pressure is the burden enough resources.” them anyway,” says Behera. “The only
of paying salaries to 1.8 million civilian Signs of an economic slowdown be- other way would be to try and find
and military personnel and pensions gan surfacing in the second quarter additional resources in case a critical
for 3.1 million retirees, 60% of India’s of 2019, and GDP growth slowed to requirement emerges—maybe addi-
total defense budget this year. The its lowest rate in six years in the third tional taxes.”
budget is squeezed from the outside quarter. With consumption crashing Some force accretion is expected in
as well. Although the defense budget and tax collections falling short, the 2020 and 2021. The first four Rafale
accounts for 15.5% of all government budget is already tightening, and the fighters are anticipated to arrive in
spending, it is only 2% of projected difficulties are affecting military pro- India by May 2020, with the order for
GDP. That is because tax collection curement programs. 36 to be completed in fiscal 2021-22.
is low in proportion to the value of The Defense Acquisition Council India is also looking forward to de-
livery of the first of five S-400 squad-
rons from Russia. Though it antici-
pates delivery by October 2020, with
the order expected to be completed by
April 2023, Russian industry officials
have said the delivery will begin in
September 2021 and wrap up by the
first half of 2025.
India plans to float tenders for 110 air
force fighter aircraft as well as six new
conventional submarines, expected to
be sent out next year. An invitation to
vendors to submit their “expression of
India had planned to buy 10 P-8
interest” to supply 111 Naval utility heli-
Long-Range Maritime Reconnaissance copters was issued in 2019, but progress
aircraft but has cut back to six. is only expected next year. All three ten-
ders will follow a new “Strategic Part-
nership” process, which requires an In-
dian partner company to be the prime
and has added a layer of complexity. c
BOEING
DEFENSE PROFILES
Russia Threat Prompts Airpower air picture, to work on counter-UAS

technologies and cyberdefenses and
Uplift in Scandinavia to develop anti-access area-denial sys-
tems for ground troops.
> COUNTRIES LOOK TO AIRCRAFT FLEET UPDATES Most Nordic nations have settled
on a choice of future combat aircraft.
> REGIONAL JOINT PROCUREMENTS ARE CONSIDERED Norway declared an initial operating
capacity (IOC) with the F-35A in early
Tony Osborne London November and is planning to perform
a NATO air-policing mission to Iceland
T
he defense capabilities of the Lockheed C-130J Hercules airlifters. during 2020.
Nordic nations look likely to be Both nations accept that the biggest Denmark’s procurement of the
boosted in the 2020s as govern- challenge will be recruiting and retain- F-35A is behind schedule. Copenhagen
ments in the region react to the threat ing personnel to crew, support and pro- is buying 27 of the aircraft, although
posed by Russia. tect these additional capabilities. only 22 will be based in-country, with
During 2019, both the Norwegian Russia today can “act fast and with- first deliveries expected in 2022 and an
and Swedish military commanders out warning,” Norway’s chief of defense, IOC expected in 2024.
handed their governments reports Adm. Haakon Bruun-Hanssen, said in Sweden took delivery of the first
outlining the need to strengthen their October, noting that his country’s forc- production JAS 39E Gripen in Decem-
national defenses and bolster person- es in particular need to be able to re- ber, although the type is a long way
nel numbers, materiel and supplies. act much more quickly to aggression, from operational service, with the first
front-line unit not expected to form un-
MARCUS WANDT/SAAB
til 2023. Stockholm already is thinking

toward the 2040s and beyond, having
signed with Saab, its national aero-
space champion, to look at supporting
the UK’s Tempest future combat air
system development. Under agree-
ments signed in the summer, the UK
and Sweden will lead joint studies that
will firm up mutual requirements and
establish an outline for the industrial
base by the end of 2020.
Saab flew the first production JAS 39E Only Finland has not decided on a
for the Swedish Air Force in December, future combat aircraft, but a contest
but the first front-line unit will not form is well in hand and expected to pit the
for another three years. West’s most potent combat aircraft
against the Finnish winter climate be-
ginning in January with the Eurofight-
In both cases, the plans call for a at least until NATO reinforcements er Typhoon.
strengthening of air defenses and arrive. Proposals to increase the mil- Helsinki wants 64 fighters to replace
support for aircraft fleets. In Swe- itary capabilities of both countries are its F/A-18 Hornet fleet, but a govern-
den, where defense spending will be set to be discussed in their parliaments ment decision to cap the contest bud-
expanded by 5 billion krona ($500 mil- during 2020. get at €10 billion ($10.9 billion) could
lion) a year starting in 2022, through Despite being largely unaligned to mean fewer aircraft are procured.
a banking tax, part of the increase NATO, in the case of Finland and Swe- Finland wants the platform to be op-
is planned to allow the air force to den, or with the EU, in the case of Nor- erational into the 2060s and will judge
grow its front-line fighter force by way, the Scandinavian countries are the bids on aircraft military capability,
keeping part of the Saab JAS 39C/D becoming increasingly aligned defen- security of supply, industrial coopera-
fleet alongside the JAS 39E Gripens sively through pacts such as Nordefco, tion, procurement and life-cycle costs,
that were intended to replace it. This under which Denmark, Finland, Ice- and security and defense policy im-
will grow the Swedish fighter force to land, Norway and Sweden are moving plications. A request for the best and
around 120 aircraft, up from the cur- toward joint procurements. final offer will be sent in 2020, and a
rent 100 Gripen C/Ds. The first steps are relatively mi- selection is expected in 2021.
In Norway, where delivery of 52 nor, with testing underway of a com- In the meantime, two of the Bal-
Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike mon-standard Nordic uniform—only tic states also are modernizing their
Fighters is underway, proposals call differing in national camouflage—but armed forces, with Latvia and Lith-
for the procurement of a long-range the nations already have agreed to uania purchasing Sikorsky UH-60M
air defense capability able to deal work together on military exercises, Black Hawks. The latter is also buy-
with short-range ballistic missiles, basing and cooperation on operations ing two batteries of the Kongsberg
additional maritime and land-based overseas. The countries also are taking Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air
tactical helicopters, Boeing P-8 Po- steps to boost cooperation on air sur- Missile System, deliveries of which
seidon maritime patrol aircraft and veillance to produce a common Nordic are set for 2021. c
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Tankers/Transports p. 59 Military rotocraft p. 61 Military data p. 62 Hypersonics p. 64
Missile defense p. 65 Air defense p. 66
ACES HIGH
> FIGHTER MARKET SET
FOR 41.5% GROWTH
> BOEING’S MARKET SHARE As Kuwait readies to receive

RISES AS F-35 GROWTH SLOWS the first Eurofighter Typhoon
equipped with AESA radar,
> FUTURE FIGHTER CONCEPTS Airbus is proposing to expand
HIT DEFINITION STAGE the type’s capability with a full
airborne electronic attack suite.
the flight performance of even the U.S.
EUROFIGHTER
Air Force’s most advanced fleets, in-
cluding the developmental Northrop
Grumman B-21 bomber. At the same
time, militaries will adopt more cost-ef-
fective ways to achieve airpower, with
attritable unmanned systems gaining
Steve Trimble Washington favor and the acquisition of a manned,
light attack aircraft in the U.S. set for
T
perhaps a final debate.
he world’s fighter market will thrive in 2020. A long-re- For the first time in nearly three
pressed call to replace aging fighter fleets around the decades, it is a good time to be in the
fighter business. The market for new
globe is finally gaining momentum, as overall defense deliveries shrank dramatically after
spending levels continue to rise. A sharp growth spurt in the Cold War and never regained mo-
fighter output in 2020 will revive decades-old production models mentum as production ramp-ups were
prolonged and in some cases strangled.
that not long ago either seemed to be winding down or dormant, The tide has turned since 2017 espe-
and will fuel investments in new long-range weapons, offensive cially as the market’s most dominant
electronic warfare, seamless connectivity, improved sensors and player, the Lockheed Martin F-35, fi-
nally began a steep climb to full-rate
other new capabilities. production in 2023.
The world’s fighter community also levels of competition by transferring U.S. and European manufacturers
will seek to clarify and define a new ownership of the underlying technol- are set for an unusually steep, two-year
generation of tactical combat aircraft ogy to the government and away from growth spurt. The Aviation Week Intel-
systems after 2030. As these programs the original equipment manufacturers. ligence Network’s Military Fleet Discov-
come into sharper focus, the pressure Alternative approaches to air-com- ery database forecast 212 fighter deliver-
will grow on industry, particularly in bat technology also will be tested. ies in 2020, but that is only the beginning.
the U.S. and UK, to break from the An experimental combination of The fighter industry outside Russia and
traditional business model. As mili- artificial-intelligence-enabled com- China is estimated to deliver 300 aircraft
tary officials become impatient with puting and resilient aerial networks in 2021, a 41.5%, one-year jump.
development schedules measured in will attempt to create new manned-un- More impressively, the growth spurt
decades, support is growing for ac- manned teams of fixed-wing combat in 2021 is expected even as the growth
quisition policies that foster greater aircraft, as well as seek to improve rate for the F-35 program begins to
slow down, with the single-engine fight- Eurofighter Typhoon equipped with ed by chaff-evading dual-band sensors.
er family’s share of the Western fight- the Captor-E, an active, electronically In Europe, MBDA has proposed a simi-
er market falling to 57% in 2021 from scanned array (AESA) radar. Brazilian lar hard-kill, 10-kg (22-lb.) mini-missile
65% in 2020. The slack will be picked Air Force pilots will arrive in Sweden for intercepting incoming munitions.
up mainly by another U.S. company. in early 2020 to begin training to fly Adding such capabilities should help
Boeing’s share of the overall fighter the Saab JAS 39E/F Gripen, of which the current fleet, but it is not expected
market will rise to 19% in 2021 from a single-seat version achieved first to be enough. Some countries—India,
12% in 2020, as the U.S. Air Force re- flight with a Saab test pilot in August Japan, South Korea and Turkey—are
vives F-15EX deliveries and the Navy 2019. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. plans developing new aircraft that approx-
receives the first F/A-18E/F Block III. to deliver the first Tejas Mk. 1A Light imate or exceed the capabilities of
The popularity of fighters is not Combat Aircraft in the final operation- fifth-generation fighters, such as the
limited to the West. In August 2019, al configuration by March 2020. J-20 and the F-35. South Korea start-
Russia formally launched the Sukhoi The capabilities of each model are ed building the front fuselage section
Su-57E for the export market, joining growing. A focus in 2020 will be on of the first KAI F-X prototype in 2019,
the Su-35 as both types gain interest in electronic-warfare upgrades. As Boeing as Indonesia resumed payments to the
formerly safe U.S. fighter markets, such starts developing the EA-18G Block 2, joint project after a two-year hiatus.
as Turkey and Egypt. Since declaring Airbus will seek to win funding sup- The schedule for the TF-X project
the stealth aircraft operational in Feb- port for a “Euro-Growler” version of has been unstable. The original sched-
ruary 2018, China has been displaying the Typhoon, with Hensoldt scheduled ule called for first flight of the TF-X
its capabilities, including a flyby at the to flight-test a new standoff jammer prototype in 2026, but Turkish officials
Zhuhai Airshow nine months later with on a Pilatus PC-12 in 2020. moved that up to 2025 in June, and
then moved it back to 2027 in Decem-
LOCKHEED MARTIN
ber. India is not due to attempt a first

flight of the Advanced Medium Combat
Aircraft (AMCA) until 2032 but is
working toward the rollout of the
Tejas Mk. 2 in 2021 or 2022.
Along with the AMCA, per-
haps the most intriguing concept
among this club is Japan’s Future Fight-
er program, the F-3. Both the Indian
and Japanese programs have at least a
The long-delayed proliferation decade to deliver an operational fight-
of Lockheed Martin F-35s continues er, so they can consider technologies
in 2020, but the single-engine type’s beyond the state of the art. Although
Japan wants to lead the Future Fight-
overall share of global fighter deliveries will fall as er program, it is open to international
other manufacturers increase output at a faster rate. collaboration. Lockheed has suggested
a new version of the F-22, modified with
ultra-long-range PL-15 missiles and a Lockheed has revived production of the software and electronics from the F-35.
formation flight of seven Chengdu F-16 in Greenville, South Carolina, but Another option is the Tempest model
J-20s on China’s National Day on Oct. 1. the Air Force continues to upgrade the promoted by the UK, Sweden and It-
The response from the U.S. and current fleet. L3Harris Technologies aly, which allows Japan to modularize
Europe has been to increase quantity and Northrop Grumman are compet- with, say, a bespoke airframe, but share
and quality of the current options as ing to equip a subset of the Air National a common set of sensors and weapons
quickly as possible. Lockheed’s aero- Guard fleet with an integrated electron- with the international partners.
nautics division is expected to deliver ic warfare system, which will comple- The Tempest model hints at the ex-
more than 300 F-35s over the next two ment the 73 aircraft receiving Northrop tent militaries are willing to go now to
years and incorporate the first element APG-83 scalable agile beam radars. reinvent the fighter after 2030. Franco/
of the Block 4 follow-on modernization The kinetic capabilities of fighters German/Spanish Future Combat Air
program. The F-35’s dominance in the also continue to expand in 2020. As System officials plan to move forward
U.S. military’s tactical fleet, however, Lockheed nears flight-testing in 2021 in 2020 to secure funding for a flying
is ending. The F/A-18E/F Block 3s or- of the long-range AIM-260 Joint Ad- demonstrator of a new fighter by 2025,
dered by the Navy in 2017 will be de- vanced Tactical Missile for the F-22 but that approach seems the outlier.
livered in 2021. If Congress passes a and F/A-18E/F, a competition is brew- The U.S. Air Force, by contrast, has re-
fiscal 2020 budget, Boeing can start de- ing between the Lockheed Cuda and shaped the Next-Generation Air Domi-
livering the F-15EXs on the Air Force’s Raytheon Peregrine concepts for a new nance program. Details are sketchy, but
pending order. medium-range air-intercept missile. a “next-generation fighter” program
The French Air Force could deploy Meanwhile, the Air Force Research launch is not scheduled before 2025. c
for the first time in 2020 with Dassault Laboratory in 2020 will enter the sec-
Rafale F3-R jets, which reached ini- ond phase of a project to develop a Min- Gallery See a review in photographs
tial operational capability in late 2019. iature Self-Defense Munition, hoping to of key events in the combat aircraft sector
Meanwhile, Kuwait will receive the first counter adversaries with missiles guid- in 2019: AviationWeek.com/Defense2019
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Tanker Turmoil ment process,” Burgess says.

A flaw to the boom telescope actu-
ator is another pending KC-46 Cat-
egory 1 Deficiency, and its fix is on a
> THE PRICE OF THE BOEING KC-46 DESIGN FIXES IS UNKNOWN similar timeline. Boeing is maintain-
> U.S. CONGRESS BLOCKS KC-10 RETIREMENT ing a pace of delivering about three
aircraft per month and anticipates
Lee Hudson Washington that cadence will continue in 2020.
Despite the issues, Boeing still sees
A
fter a two-year delay, the U.S. Lockheed Martin F-22 or F-35 fighters the potential to sell the new tanker to
Air Force is receiving Boeing if the boom scrapes low-observable the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
KC-46 aerial refueling tank- stealth coatings. even though the UAE revealed at the
ers at a regular rate. But with ongo- Roper says he is “very pleased” Dubai Airshow its intention to pur-
ing deficiencies and a likely gap in Boeing is looking to install a laser chase three additional Airbus A330
tanking capacity, the military may range finder for the boom so that the Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT)
conduct a competition for refueling RVS operator has an indication of aircraft, adding to its fleet of three.
services in 2020. how far the boom is from the recep- “The timeline on that is difficult to
The Remote Vision System (RVS) tacle. The Air Force and Boeing will estimate, but we still believe there is a
is one of several lingering shortcom- not know how much any of the KC-46 potential market there,” Burgess says.
ings on the KC-46. The two sides hope fixes will cost until a design is vali- Slow KC-46 deliveries may have
to agree on a design fix for the RVS in dated, but the company has agreed opened up the possibility of future
2020, but the service’s acquisition ex- to pick up the tab. competition even within the U.S.,
ecutive Will Roper says he will worry “One thing I’m very happy about as the Air Force and U.S. Transpor-
about the tanker program daily until is we’ve got some of the best visual tation Command (Transcom) need
a design is validated. experts at the Air Force Research tanking services.
Air Mobility Command issued a
request for information in 2018 for
a commercial refueling service that
can handle 7,000 hr. annually. Airbus
and Lockheed Martin joined forces
to respond as the service determines
the way ahead. In 2019, Omega Air
Refueling took delivery of the first of
The KC-46A Remote Vision System
that enables the boom operator to
perform their duties is going through
a redesign at the expense of the
manufacturer.
two former Royal Netherlands Air
Force KDC-10 aircraft that they could
potentially use to provide a tanking
service to the U.S. Air Force.
BOEING
The KDC-10 joins the company

as its first boom-equipped tanker.
On the KC-46, the RVS—a technol- Lab, and they’re creating a model Omega currently owns and oper-
ogy akin to virtual or augmented re- simulator of the RVS so that we can ates a small fleet of tanker aircraft,
ality—experiences what the Air Force work through design iterations with with four different configurations
calls a “rubber sheeting” effect that Boeing,” Roper says, before Boeing approved to support U.S. Navy and
distorts the image on the visual dis- invests engineering time. Marine Corps aircraft.
play used by the boom operator during The RVS recently completed a Transcom is also concerned about
refueling operations, Roper says. system-requirements review and is aircraft refueling capacity and is
The RVS technical deficiencies scheduled for a preliminary design looking to delay retirement of the
are acute enough that they preclude review in the early second quarter of Boeing KC-135 because of delays in
safe and effective boom-and-recepta- 2020, Jamie Burgess, vice president the Air Force receiving the KC-46
cle aerial refueling, the service says. and KC-46 program manager at Boe- from Boeing.
Missions with the current RVS may ing, tells Aviation Week. “Obviously, it’s going to cost mon-
increase the risk of midair collisions, The primary supplier for the RVS ey, and when the money is put into
boom strikes, probe loss and dam- is Collins Aerospace, and Boeing has the program, that’s when we’ll know;
age. The defect could be particularly opted to continue partnering with but the intent is to retain 29 [KC-
costly for stealth aircraft such as the Collins on the fix. “We’re forecasting 135] weapon systems beyond their
Northrop Grumman B-2 bomber and several years for the design develop- currently scheduled retirement,”
HERVE GOUSSE/AIRBUS
In 2020, the first of eight Airbus A330 MRTTs will enter

service with the Dutch-led Multinational MRTT fleet.
Army Gen. Stephen Lyons, head of refueling hoses trailing 120 ft. rather a wide range of missions, including
Transcom, told the Senate Armed than 90 ft., as before. Airbus hopes it cargo resupply and air refueling. Por-
Services Committee in March. can certify helicopter aerial refueling tugal has also signed an order for six.
The Air Force plans to divest the in 2021. Tanking of fixed-wing aircraft In November, Embraer and Boeing
KC-10 fleet while retaining a portion including fighters is currently being launched a rebranded version of the
of its KC-135 aircraft into the 2050s, used operationally by the German airlifter for the commercial market—
but delays in KC-46 delivery are caus- Luftwaffe in Jordan. the C-390 Millennium, which will
ing a substantive tanking gap for the Meanwhile the company is also compete head-to-head with Lock-
military. continuing to push for sales of the heed Martin’s C-130J derivative—
“During KC-46 unit conversions, we MRTT. During 2020, the first one the LM-100J. That platform recently
are working closely with the U.S. Air will enter service with the Dutch- was granted FAA type certification,
Force to retain sufficient [aerial refu- led Multinational Multi-Role Tanker allowing it to deliver the first two LM-
eling] capacity and potentially delay Transport Fleet (MMF). The MMF 100Js to launch customer Pallas Avia-
the requirement of KC-135 aircraft in has eight MRTTs on order and option in the first quarter of 2020. And
order to maintain [a] sufficient num- tions for an additional three if more Lockheed officials say they are close
ber of aircraft to meet operational nations join. to signing a new multiyear contract
requirements,” states Lyons’ written In addition to the UAE’s follow-on with the U.S. for 50 C-130J airlifters
testimony submitted to the committee. order, Australia is reportedly looking for the Air Force, Marine Corps and
Citing concerns about the tanker to purchase an additional pair of the Coast Guard. The company had 512
gap, Congress in its agreement on a aircraft. Despite a recent drought of the aircraft on order as of the end
fiscal 2020 defense policy bill, says it of orders, Airbus is also continuing of September.
will block the military from retiring development of the C295 twin-turbo- In Russia, an aerospace laboratory
primary inventory KC-10 aircraft in prop airlifter. revealed a possible new option in the
that fiscal year. The work on Canada’s Fixed-Wing government’s search for a domestic
Issues with tankers and airlift ex- Search-and-Rescue requirement has alternative to the Ukrainian-made
tend beyond the U.S. Ten years after resulted in a modernized version of Antonov An-124 heavy lifter. The
the Airbus A400M’s first flight, the the aircraft, equipped with a Collins Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute
airlifter has yet to secure export or- Pro Line Fusion avionics suite and (TsAGI) announced a wind tunnel
ders beyond Malaysia. Although sales new aerodynamic features to improve campaign for a new heavy transport
to Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are in fuel efficiency, although these will be aircraft intended to replace the An-
the offing, a contract from the latter added on a case-by-case basis. 124 Ruslan.
is hindered by Germany’s ongoing Burkina Faso is the latest country TsAGI names the four-engine,
arms embargo. to order the type. Italy’s Leonardo high-wing design concept “Elephant.”
Despite ongoing issues with the continues to develop the C-27J Spar- A picture of the wind tunnel model
engines, which recently prompted tan. The aircraft has enjoyed signifi- shows it bears a striking likeness to
Germany to refuse to take delivery cant success in Africa in recent years, the An-124, which itself appears to be
of two machines, Airbus has made with sales to Chad, Kenya, Morocco inspired by the external design of the
progress in delivering the platform’s and Zambia. Leonardo is also looking Lockheed C-5A. c
tactical capabilities, including the to develop the C-27J as an aerial fire-
airdropping of loads and paratroop- fighting platform. —With Tony Osborne in London
ers from the side doors. Work is also In September, Embraer delivered
continuing with the helicopter aerial the first production KC-390 airlift- Gallery See a review in photographs
refueling capability following suc- er to the Brazilian Air Force. Brazil of key events in the tanker/transport sector
cessful trials with extended aerial has ordered 28 KC-390s to perform in 2019: AviationWeek.com/Tankers2019
ERIC RAZ/AIRBUS HELICOPTER
OEMs Enjoying Boom in Military 2020; the AH-64 Apache is considered

the favorite.
Helicopter Orders The Czech Republic’s decision to
purchase the Bell AH-1Z Viper and
the UH-1Y Venom as a pair marks the
first success for the utility platform.
Bell had previously secured sales of the
Airbus’ H225 has enjoyed a renais-
sance as some customers look to re-
purpose stored commercial versions.
AH-1Z to only Bahrain and Pakistan.

Other major program selections ex-
pected during 2020 include the face-
> U.S. AIR FORCE BEGAN MH-139 TESTING IN DECEMBER off between two U.S.-made heavy-lift-
ers—Boeing’s Chinook and Sikorsky’s
> INDIA COULD BE ONE OF BIGGEST MARKETS FOR NEW ROTORCRAFT CH-53K King Stallion—to replace Ger-
many’s CH-53G Sea Stallions. Industry
is also eagerly awaiting the U.S. Navy’s
Tony Osborne London
decision on the TH-73 Advanced He-
W
ith the commercial helicopter Guepard will begin in 2021, with first licopter Training System, for which
industry still struggling after deliveries planned for 2026. the Airbus twin-engine H135, Bell sin-
the oil and gas price slump, Few details have been revealed about gle-engine Model 407GXi and Leon-
military sales are keeping some of the the AW249’s development timeline, al- ardo TH-119 derivative of the AW119
major rotary-wing OEMs in the black. though four need to have flown by 2025. Koala are competing. The Navy plans
The uptick in international defense Leonardo is building the MH-139 utility to buy about 130 airframes to replace
spending—particularly in Europe—has helicopter for the U.S. Air Force to re- its tired TH-57 SeaRangers.
given even flagging programs a new place UH-1 Huey helicopters flown in Australia is looking for a fleet of 16
lease on life and spurred new export VIP and ballistic-missile security mis- rapidly deployable twin-engine light
opportunities. sions. The Air Force testing began in helicopters it can fit into a C-17 for
Among the biggest beneficiaries is December, and first deliveries are exits Land 2097 Phase 4 requirement.
Airbus’ Super Puma-family. Once a pected in fiscal 2021. Airbus, Bell, Leonardo and MD Heli-
mainstay of oil and gas operations, the A series of major Foreign Military copters have entered bids, although a
helicopter has in the last two years won Sales contracts are in the offing for decision may not come until 2021.
major contracts in Kuwait, Singapore Boeing’s AH-64 Apache and CH-47 India looks like one of the biggest mil-
and Hungary, which ordered 16 air- Chinook. Among them are a request itary markets in the coming years, with
craft, while the smaller H215 has been for 36 Apaches for Morocco, a new requirements for 111 naval utility, 197 re-
snapped up by Serbia and Uzbekistan. customer for the platform, and a reconnaissance and surveillance, and more
Demand is such that governments and quest from Bangladesh for an unspec- than 120 naval multirole helicopters.
militaries are now looking to repurpose ified number. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic,
commercial H225s for the military mis- Boeing is also waiting for signatures the U.S. Army’s Future Vertical Lift
sion. Ukraine’s machines used by Kyiv’s on Chinook follow-on orders from the plans are beginning to tease interna-
interior ministry have been modified United Arab Emirates and the UK. tional militaries into thinking about
from an oil and gas configuration, and Britain, with its fleet of 60 Chinooks, their future fleet mix. Next-genera-
the French military is also looking to wants to begin replacing some of its tion rotorcraft promise next-gener-
expand its H225 fleet the same way. 1970s-era models, which, despite reg- ation speed and range, but questions
The Airbus H145M twin-engine light ular upgrades, are increasingly costly remain about through-life costs and
helicopter has also found favor with in- to maintain. high price tags. So far, one of the
ternational militaries, securing orders Eastern Europe proved to be a lu- Army’s Joint Multi-Role flight test
from Germany, Hungary, Serbia and crative market for U.S.-made rotorcraft demonstrators, Bell’s V-280 Valor has
Thailand. Germany ordered the H145 in 2019: Sikorsky’s Black Hawk picked achieved performance requirements,
commercial version for the search- up selections and orders from Croatia, while the Sikorsky/Boeing SB-1 coax-
and-rescue mission, and Ecuador or- Lithuania and Poland. The latter is still ial rigid-rotor compound helicopter is
dered six for the same mission. Work looking to replace its Soviet-era Mil yet to get beyond hovering, following
is continuing to enhance that platform’s Mi-8/17s and SW-4 Sokol transport its first hop in March. With Bell plan-
manned-unmanned teaming capabili- helicopters in the coming years. Having ning to fly the V-280 autonomously, the
ties and weapons options. selected Leonardo’s AW101 to take over Sikorsky-Boeing team have consider-
Also during 2019, the French govern- the antisubmarine-warfare mission of able work to do. c
ment accelerated and expanded plans its Mil Mi-14s, Poland is also hoping to
to develop a military version of Airbus’ replace its Hind assault helicopters Gallery See a review in photographs
new H160 twin-engine medium helicop- with a new-generation attack heli- of key events in the rotorcraft sector
ter. Formal development of the H160M copter. A decision could come during in 2019: AviationWeek.com/Rotor2019
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Fighters/Attack Aircraft Market Share, 2020-24

DATA CENTER Unit Production Value of Production
Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars
Fighter/Attack Aircraft Costs, 2020-24 Snapshot
Indeterminate 10% $13.3
Five-Year Unit Production The Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter and Airbus
Indeterminate 10% 167 KAI 1% $1.9
A400M airlifter are among the most complex
KAI 2% 36 and challenging military programs underway
Saab 5%in$6.3
the U.S. and Europe. Here is Aviation Week’s
Saab 5% 75
progress assessment as of the end of 2019.
Eurofighter 5% $7.6
Eurofighter 5% 72
A400M Atlas
Total: Dassault
Total:
craft Market Share, 2020-24
Dassault 7% 110
1,587
Lockheed
Martin
86 $9.7
Delivered: 7% $135.4
aircraft to Lockheed
five operators
Martin
Five-Year Unit Production 57% Ordered: 77 forBoeing billion
delivery in 2020-29 57%
Boeing
Billions of U.S. 2020 DollarsValue of Production 901 $76.7
14% 15%
Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars Forecast: 81 deliveries
$19.9 in 2020-29
Indeterminate 10% $13.3 226
KAI 1% $1.9
Saab 5% $6.3 Source: Aviation Week Military Fleet & MRO Forecast 2019. All numbers and percentages rounded.
Eurofighter 5% $7.6
Dassault
Total:
kheed
artin 7% $9.7 $135.4 Lockheed
Martin
7%
Boeing
billion 57%
01 $76.7
15%
$19.9
Fleet & MRO Forecast 2019. All numbers and percentages rounded.
COMBAT AIRCRAFT TO WATCH

WING MAX. MAX. WING EMPTY GROSS THRUST
MODEL/ SPAN LENGTH HEIGHT AREA WEIGHT WEIGHT ENGINES (AFTERBURN-
DESIGNATION (FT.) (FT.) (FT.) (FT.2) (LB.) (LB.) (NO./TYPE) ING) PERFORMANCE LOADING
BOEING
F/A-18E/F 44.9 60.3 16 500 E: 66,000 2 X GE F414-400 22,000 lb. ea. M 1.8+ 17,750 lb. external
Super Hornet 32,100
DASSAULT AVIATION
Rafale C 35.8 50.2 17.4 492 22,000 54,000 2 X Safran M88-4E 16,860 lb. ea. M 1.8 21,000 lb. external
EUROFIGHTER
Typhoon 35.1 52.4 17.4 538 24,250 51,600 2 X Eurojet EJ200 20,000 lb. ea. M2 16,535 lb. external
KOREA AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES
KF-X 36.8 55.5 15.5 501 26,015 37,920 2 X GE F414-K1 22,000 lb. ea. M 1.81 —
LOCKHEED MARTIN
F-35A Lightning II 35 51.4 14.4 460 29,300 70,000 1 X P&W F135-100 43,000 lb. M 1.6 18,000 lb.
internal/external
SAAB
JAS 39E Gripen 32.4 49.9 14.8 323 17,640 36,300 1 X GE F414G 22,000 lb. M2 13,200 lb. external
SUKHOI
2 X NPO Saturn
Su-35S 48.2 71.9 19.4 667 — 76,059 31,970 lb. ea. M 2.25 17,640 lb. external
117S
Military Transport Aircraft Market
Military Transport Aircraft Costs, 2020-24
Unit Production
Five-Year Unit Production
Indeterminate 8% 36 Indeterminate 8
Indonesian Aerospace 1% 4 Indonesian Aero
Leonardo 1% $
Leonardo 2% 6
Kawasaki 4% $
Kawasaki 2% 10
Embraer 6% $3
Embraer 9% 40 Airbus
28%
125
Military Transport Aircraft Five-Year

Market Total:
UnitShare,
Production2020-24
Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars 441
Unit Production Value of Production Boeing
Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars 20%
e 8% 36 Indeterminate 8% $4.3
88 Lockheed Martin
erospace 1% 4 Indonesian Aerospace 0% $0.1 30%
Leonardo 1% $0.3 132
%6
Kawasaki 4% $2.0
% 10
Embraer 6% $3.3
40 F-35 Lightning II
Airbus Airbus Source: Aviation Week Military Fleet & MRO Forecast 2019. All nu
28% 31%
Delivered: 478 aircraft
125 $16.0
Total:
to 12 operators Total:
441
Ordered: 318 for delivery Lockheed $51.5
Boeing
in 2020-29
Martin
23%
billion
20%
$11.6
Forecast: 1,684Lockheed
88 deliveries
Martin Boeing
30%
in 2020-29 27% Pie Chart Source: Aviation Week
132 $13.9 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast 2019.
All numbers and percentages rounded.
Source: Aviation Week Military Fleet & MRO Forecast 2019. All numbers and percentages rounded.
MILITARY TRANSPORTS TO WATCH
WING MAX. MAX. EMPTY GROSS
MODEL/ SPAN LENGTH HEIGHT WING AREA WEIGHT WEIGHT POWERPLANT POWER (SHP) OR PAYLOAD/
DESIGNATION CREW (FT.) (FT.) (FT.) (FT.2) (LB.) (LB.) (NO./TYPE) THRUST (LB.) SPEED RANGE
AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SPACE

A400M Atlas 2+1 139.1 148 48.3 2,384 169,000 310,850 4 X EPI 11,000 shp ea. M 0.7 66,140 lb./
TP400-D6 2,450 nm
ANTONOV
An-178 2 100.3 108.1 33.3 — — — 4 X Progress — 405 kt. 22,046 lb./
D-436-148FM 2,160 nm
BOEING
KC-46A 3-15 157.8 165.5 52.8 3,050 — 415,000 2 X P&W 62,000 lb. ea. M 0.86 207,670 lb.
Pegasus PW4062 (fuel transfer)
EMBRAER
C-390 2 115 115.4 38.8 1,513 — 178,570 2 X IAE 31,330 lb. ea. M 0.80 50,700 lb./
Millennium V2500-E5 1,520 nm
ILYUSHIN
IL-112V — 90.6 79.2 29.2 700 — 46,300 2 X Klimov 3,500 shp 245- 7,720 lb./
TV7-117CT 270 kt. 1,300 nm
LEONARDO
C-27J Spartan 2+1 94.2 74.5 31.6 882.6 38,581 70,107 2 X R-R 4,637 shp ea. 325 kt. 22,046 lb./
AE2100D2 1,000 nm
LOCKHEED MARTIN
C-130J-30 3 132.6 112.8 38.8 1,745 87,667 164,000 4 X R-R 4,637 shp ea. 355 kt. 36,000 lb./
Super Hercules AE2100D3 1,700 nm
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
U.S. Hypersonic Hype Will Hit flight testing to unprecedented levels,

even surpassing Russia and China.
Testing Hurdles in 2020 “The hypersonics flight-test rhythm
has increased to two events per year
> ARRW AND HCSW ARE SET FOR 2020 FLIGHT TESTS starting in fiscal 2020 and will con-
tinue to accelerate up to 20 events a
> “RANGE REAPERS” AND “RANGE HAWKS” JOIN TEST FLEET year,” the Army said in a Nov. 27 ac-
quisition notice.
Steve Trimble Washington Such an unprecedented plan de-
mands a new test infrastructure.
H
ypersonic missiles became a two-stage missile stack. Despite the re- The Army has defined the details of a
household word in 2019. The cent international interest, designing planned, three-tiered hypersonic test
U.S. taxpayer is now about to a successful maneuvering hypersonic range. The Portable Range Operations
find out whether the maneuvering weapon remains one of the most chal- and Test Network will provide the com-
Mach 5+ weapons are worth all the lenging assignments for aerodynamics munications backbone for the vast te-
hype—or the cost. and propulsion engineers. lemetry relay system for a hypersonic
The focus on testing of U.S. hyper- Not surprisingly, U.S. test schedules flight test.
sonic weapons comes none too soon, have continued to slip. The original The network will be used by assets
as strategic rivals forge ahead. Russian schedule for DARPA’s Tactical Boost on the ocean and in the air. The Broad
Strategic Missile Forces expect to ac- Glide (TBG) program called for a first Ocean Area Terminal Sensing System
tivate the first battery of Avangard inflight test by the end of June 2019, is being developed to install the acous-
tercontinental ballistic missiles tipped but unspecified technical difficulties tic radar and optical sensors on ocean
with a nuclear hypersonic glide vehicle caused a delay to the end of the year. platforms, including buoys, barges and
(HGV) by the end of December, fulfill- The Pentagon’s overlapping hy- ships. Finally, a new Sky Range com-
ing a patient, 15-year development
CHRISTOPHER OKULA/U.S. AIR FORCE

program.
Previewing a likely deployment by A B-52 carried an instrumented
the People’s Liberation Army Rocket test version of the AGM-183A
Force next year, China rolled out at last June.
least 16 DF-17 missiles with conven-
tional HGVs during the National Day
Parade on Oct. 1.
If everything goes according to
the current plan, the first U.S. HGV
will enter service in about 2-3 years,
starting with the Air Force’s Hyper-
sonic Conventional Strike Weapon
(HCSW) and Air-Launched Rapid
Response Weapon (ARRW) in 2022,
followed by the Army’s Long-Range
Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) and the
Navy’s Intermediate-Range Conven-
tional Prompt Strike (IR CPS) a year
later. Air-launched scramjet-powered
weapons—the Hypersonic Air-breath- personic programs are also prone posed of UAVs including RQ-4 “Range
ing Weapon Concept (HAWC) could to creating confusion. TBG shares a Hawks” and MQ-9 “Range Reapers”
enter service at some point between similar profile to ARRW. In fact, the will help relay telemetry data from the
the fielding dates for the HCSW and TBG is itself testing two HGVs: one HGVs and hypersonic cruise missiles
ARRW, but the precise timing has not designed by Lockheed Martin, the oth- at high altitude.
been released. er by Raytheon. The follow-on ARRW Other, future challenges still await
In 2020, the focus of the Pentagon’s prototyping program also is split be- the operational hypersonic weapon
$10 billion bet on HGVs, scramjets and tween Lockheed and Raytheon HGVs, development effort in the U.S. A supply
hypersonic defensive systems will enter although the only hypersonic weapon chain capable of producing hundreds,
a new phase. Over the next four years, with an official designation so far— if not thousands, of missiles must be
the three armed services plan to con- AGM-183A—belongs to the Lockheed created. A defensive system, which
duct a total of 40 hypersonic weapon version of ARRW. remains in an early concept- definition
flight tests, with the first two in 2020. Whether launched from air, ground stage, must be invented. The multiple,
That is the plan anyway. It has been or sea, the next round of testing is overlapping weapon capabilities pur-
over two years since the Pentagon about to begin. If the first TBG flight sued by all three services may need to
completed the last flight test of a hy- test is completed by the end of 2019, be reconciled.
personic weapon—a Navy evaluation the first AGM-183A ARRW and HCSW But 2020 will be the year the Penta-
of the forerunner of the IR CPS and tests should occur by the end of 2020. gon will begin to find out how well these
LRHW configuration for the HGV and Then the Pentagon plans to ramp up new weapons really work. c
Europe’s Twister concept suggests MBDA is
developing an air-breathing interceptor as the
Moving Target U.S. considers adapting existing interceptor

boosters for hypersonic threat.
> U.S. AND EUROPE SET TO DEFINE HYPERSONIC DEFENSES
> NEXT-GENERATION INTERCEPTOR REQUIREMENTS ARE WIDE OPEN
MBDA
Steve Trimble Washington predictable flightpath during the mid- layer” of satellites in low Earth orbit,
course phase of flight. which could see hypersonic glide ve-
A
year of change is in store for the In 2019, the U.S. and European gov- hicles at relatively low altitude with
military organizations tasked ernments finally responded, just as on average 15 times dimmer heat sig-
with intercepting missiles Russia was poised to clear the Avan- natures than ICBMs during the mid-
launched from another continent. gard ICBM as operational by the end course phase. The options that the
In the U.S., the $160 billion spent of December. The MDA selected five MDA selected for the HBTSS concept
by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) interceptor concepts for further refine- definition stage have not yet been re-
since its formation in 2002 has main- ment by mid-2020 and four companies leased, however. PESCO also has not
ly been focused on intercepting bal- to demonstrate prototypes for a future provided details of plans for the “space-
listic missiles of medium to inter- Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking based theater surveillance” phrase em-
contentental range by standing up a Sensor System (HBTSS). At the same bedded in the Twister acronym.
layered architecture, including the time, DARPA is continuing to work on The MDA’s defensive shield against
Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), the the secretive Glide Breaker program, ICBMs is established but may face
sea-based Aegis Ballistic Missile De- although little about the project has major changes in the year ahead. The
fense (BMD) system and the Army’s been released. agency declared the GBI operational in
Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense Meanwhile, the European Union 2004, but upgrades have come slowly
(THAAD) batteries, among others. launched the Timely Warning and and painfully. In August 2019, the MDA
However, the recognition of an Interception with Space-based The- canceled the troubled Redesigned Kill
emerging threat—a new kind of mis- ater Surveillance (Twister), a count- Vehicle (RKV), a long-awaited replace-
sile that maneuvers within the ater-hypersonic satellite constellation ment for the prototype kill vehicle de-
mosphere at hypersonic speeds up and ground-based interceptor under signed for the GBI in the late 1990s.
to Mach 20—and the collapse of the the framework of the multinational Its cancellation opens several possi-
Redesigned Kill Vehicle upgrade pro- Permanent Structured Cooperation bilities as the MDA enters a new budget
gram for the GBI appear to be driving (PESCO). request cycle for fiscal 2021. The RKV
fundamental changes in the future of Although public information on both proposed to replace the GBI’s existing
the MDA’s defensive architecture. projects is still limited, the MDA and payload on a one-for-one basis. The
At the same time, governments PESCO appear to be taking different replacement—the Next-Generation
from Europe to the Middle East to approaches with the interceptor. In Interceptor (NGI)—could follow that
Asia are also building up defenses September, the MDA selected one approach or revisit the MDA’s previous
against attacks by a broad range of directed-energy concept and four in- attempts to develop multiple payloads
new air and missile threats, including terceptor missile concepts for further for each GBI. The booster for the GBI
a new program by the European Union refinement, but the agency emphasized interceptor itself could be modified or
to develop a counter to Russia’s grow- that each of the kinetic options is based replaced by the NGI, an option first dis-
ing arsenal of hypersonic weapons. on an existing booster; most likely, new, closed in October by Loren Thompson,
Despite the billions invested in bal- extended-range versions of THAAD a Forbes columnist and chief operating
listic missile defenses, the imminent and SM-3. officer of the Lexington Institute.
deployment of Russia’s Avangard and By contrast, MBDA showed a concept Even as the missile threat has
China’s DF-17 pose unique challenges. for a Twister interceptor that suggests evolved, the pillars of the MDA’s layered
The MDA and U.S. Defense Depart- the design is based on an air-breathing architecture have remained largely in-
ment officials acknowledge the Ballis- propulsion system, such as a subsonic tact over the last 20 years. The agency
tic Missile Defense System (BMDS) or supersonic combustion ramjet. will continue to leverage the investment
assembled over the past two decades The surveillance strategies for both in the current system as much as pos-
is poorly designed to counter weap- the American and European efforts are sible, but new threats and countertech-
ons that cruise at high speeds within more opaque. Pentagon officials have nologies could lead to significant chang-
the atmosphere and do not follow a emphasized a need for a “tracking es in 2020. c
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Air Defense Redefined

> MSDM AND SHIELD DEMONSTRATORS ENTER PHASE 2
> U.S. AIR FORCE, ARMY AND NAVY FIELD GROUND-BASED LASERS
Steve Trimble Washington
O
n March 4, 1961, an R-12 Dvina In addition to ground-based missile Shooting down unmanned aircraft
intercontinental ballistic missile defense, the Air Force Research Labo- systems and small cruise missiles
was launched from Kapustin ratory (AFRL) wants to introduce the from the ground will become an op-
Yar in southwest Russia and flew east. capability to intercept missiles fired at
erational capability for the first time
About 1,300 nm to the west, a V-1000 aerial targets such as fighters, bomb-
anti-ballistic missile ascended from the ers and transports from the targeted in 2020, but the U.S. Air Force hopes
Saryshagan launch complex on an in- aircraft. The age of relying on passive to repackage the technology for an
tercept path. At about 80,000 ft. over defense such as maneuvering to avert aircraft pod.
Kazakhstan, the two rockets, as their incoming missiles or dispensing chaff
Soviet designers intended, collided, or flares to confuse their guidance sys- Shield program last April shot down
and the missile defense era began. tems may be supplanted. multiple missiles over White Sands
Nearly 60 years after that first suc- Two very different approaches to Missile Range, New Mexico, but with
cessful, non-nuclear missile defense aerial intercept completed a success- a ground-based system adapted from
test, ground-launched interceptors ful first phase in 2019. In 2020, the a powerful U.S. Army laser weapon
have become increasingly sophisti- AFRL will launch the second phase of demonstrator far too large to be car-
ried by a tactical aircraft. A few months
later, the AFRL also completed a three-
year study phase for the powered
MSDM hard-kill interceptor, which
evaluated proposals from Boeing,
Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. In
Phase 2, both programs face critical
feasibility tests.
The Shield pod, which includes a
Boeing container, Northrop Grum-
man beam director and a 50-kW-class,
electrically powered solid-state laser
As the guidance systems of supplied by Lockheed, is scheduled
missile threats become too for a Phase 2 airborne demonstration
AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY

in 2021. A potential Phase 3 could fol-
sophisticated for decoys, chaff low to attempt in 2021-25 an airborne
and flares, the U.S. Air Force shutdown by a pod carrying a scaled-
plans to respond with hard-kill up 150-kW-class laser. If successful, the
interceptors and defensive defensive laser pod could transition
lasers to shoot them down. into operational service.
Meanwhile, the MSDM competitors
AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY are required to submit by Jan. 31 bids
cated, although each new advance development work on the Miniature for Phase 2 task orders worth up to
has been countered to some degree Self-Defense Munition (MSDM) and $100 million each. The goal of Phase
by ballistic missiles with improved de- the Self-Protect High-Energy Laser 2 is to push the roughly 3-ft.-long in-
coys and more complicated flightpath Demonstrator (Shield). terceptors beyond a conceptual frame-
trajectories. In six decades of missile The feasibility of aerial intercept work, setting the stage for a competi-
defense moves and countermoves, the weapons has not yet been proven. tion for an operational transition Shield
constant has been the domain. With No equivalent to the breakthrough program by the middle of the decade.
the exception of a few failed experi- 1961 test in Kazakhstan exists for air Although each concept presents
mental projects, missile interceptors platforms. unique technical hurdles, the Air
are launched from the ground. But there have been small steps to- Force is preparing for success. Last
The U.S. Air Force wants to change ward proving the concept can work. July, the AFRL’s Munitions Direc-
that paradigm over the next five years. A graduation event for Phase 1 of the torate published a request for in-
U.S. AIR FORCE
formation for a podded self-defense goal of the Shield demonstration un- an operational laser weapon is only 5-10
system. The pod ideas solicited by der Phase 2 is to fire the laser at such years away—and always will be.
AFRL must be able to accommodate speeds, proving that the results of the But times have changed. The U.S.
either about 10 MSDM interceptors, AFRL’s digital simulations and static military touts 2020 as the year that
a high-energy laser or high-powered live-firings on the ground will translate operational laser weapons will be de-
microwave system. into a real-world scenario. Likewise, the ployed, but in fact they are already
Hard- and soft-kill weapons could MSDM demonstrators must prove that in service. The Russian military has
change the components of the formula the guidance and propulsion systems introduced the Peresvet combat laser
for aircraft survivability. In addition of the interceptors can respond quick- system, which has been integrated into
to static features such as camouflage, ly enough to an incoming, potentially the defensive systems that protect the
structural shaping and radar absor- supersonic missile threat. launch sites of intercontinental ballis-
bent materials, even the most stealthy Ultimately, the point of the demon- tic missiles. Ground- and ship-based air
tactical aircraft, such as the F-35, also strations is to introduce the technol- defense is also the initial mission for de-
carry a full suite of defensive aids, ogy on the next generation of fighter fensive laser weapons by the U.S. mili-
including self-protection jammers, aircraft. In 2018, the Air Force decid- tary. In 2020, the Air Force will deploy
towed fiber-optic decoys, chaff and ed to defer the launch of the Penetrat- Raytheon’s 10-kW-class High-Energy
flares. Although increasingly powering Counter Air capability under the Laser Weapon System (HEL-WS) to
ful, such aids at best can only fool or Next-Generation Air Dominance to two different bases overseas for an ex-
blind an incoming missile, not destroy beyond 2025. The new schedule aligns tended operational validation. Raythe-
it. If aerial interception becomes pos- with the timing for completing the on also is on contract by the Army to
sible, tactical aircraft could add anoth- technology readiness phase of both the integrate a 50-kW version of the same
er layer of self-protection capability, defensive hard-kill and laser weapons. electrically powered laser on a Stryker
and one that leaves no doubts for the It is a prospect the Air Force has dis- vehicle for a field assessment in 2021.
crew about whether the countermea- cussed publicly in the past. Some of the old challenges remain.
sure succeeded. Such a capability is “The same advantages that we talk- A general rule in high-energy lasers
sought as the threats to tactical aired about with magazine depth, with be- is that for every watt of laser output,
craft multiply, exacerbated by fears ing able to fire quickly and to recharge, 3 watts of power is generated. That
of new missiles guided by dual-band would give us some capability for our leaves 2 watts of power lost as thermal
seekers entering service. older airplanes to maneuver in places energy, which then has to be managed
The AFRL is not alone in the pur- that they cannot now, by being able to with either a cooling cycle or a mecha-
suit of active countermeasures. In defend themselves against integrat- nism to divert the heat away from the
June, MBDA unveiled a concept for ed air defenses,” Gen. James Holmes, machinery of the weapon system. In
a 10-kg (22-lb.) hard-kill anti-missile commander of Air Combat Command, the case of HEL-WS, there appears to
interceptor. told an audience at the Directed Ener- be some improvement. Raytheon says
The technology for hard-kill and gy Summit in 2017. “It would help the the off-the-shelf laser amplifiers are
laser countermeasures is not new, but new airplanes we are looking at, like closer to 40% efficient than 33%, re-
the airborne application envisioned the Penetrating Counter Air aircraft, sulting in three-fifths of wasted power
for both systems is unique. In order to operate in that environment.” instead of two-thirds.
function on a fighter, a podded or in- Bold predictions about the future of To transfer the technology to an air-
tegrated laser has to be able to prop- laser weapons, in particular, provoke borne application, however, the compa-
agate a high-power beam through a skepticism. A reliably relevant joke nies involved in Shield must repackage
transonic or supersonic airflow. The over the last five decades has been that a ground system weighing thousands of
kilograms into a padded system weigh-
ing no more than tens or low hundreds
of kilograms. Even if the companies
In April, the Air Force demonstrated can find a way to scale up the power
that a ground-based laser can shoot of amplifiers and not the weight, more
down fast missiles during a solutions must be found to manage the
demonstration at White Sands same feat with the power generators,
Missile Range, New Mexico. beam directors and thermal manage-
ment systems.
On the other hand, program support-
ers no longer have to point to a merely
theoretical threat. The startlingly suc-
cessful attacks by unmanned aircraft
systems and cruise missiles on defend-
ed oil processing facilities in Saudi Ara-
bia on Sept. 14 prove the threat against
ground bases is real. It may only be a
matter of time before such capabilities
are equally effective against defensive
aids aboard fighters. c
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
Engines p. 70 Space launch vehicles p. 74 Satellites p. 76 Human spaceflight p. 77
INFLECTION POINT
The U.S. is weighing retiring
> DELAYS TO THE FAA’S REMOTE ID RULE most of its Global Hawks just as
HAVE FRUSTRATED COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY it begins export deliveries.
> PIVOT TO PEER THREATS CHALLENGES RELEVANCE But much depends on the FAA itself,
NORTHROP GRUMMAN
OF MILITARY UAV FLEETS and the much-delayed regulations for
remote identification of drones—a
precondition for routine BVLOS oper-
Graham Warwick ations. Proposed rulemaking has edged
toward 2020, and a final rule could take
D
espite the rapid growth of the market since the middle another two years, to the frustration of
industry and lawmakers.
of the past decade, drones have yet to make any real Much attention is focused on drone
impact on the everyday lives of most people. That could delivery. This is already a reality out-
change in the next decade as regulations catch up with side the U.S., with Zipline operating
drone networks delivering blood and
technology and enable truly transformative operations. vaccines to remote clinics in Rwanda
The growth has been achieved de-

spite tight constraints on the use of
commercial drones and is expected UNMANNED
BE
to accelerate through the early 2020s
LL
as limits are widened to allow routine
flights over people, at night and beyond CARGO AIRCRAFT
visual line of sight (BVLOS). This will
unlock the economic potential of drones
for missions such as medical transport,
TO WATCH
search and rescue, and cargo delivery.
Since it began requiring registration Interest and activity in developing heavy-pay-
in December 2015, some 1.5 million load unmanned cargo aircraft is growing, Bell APT 70
drones have been logged with the FAA. aimed at creating a responsive logistics capabili- Flown: December 2018
While the pace of recreational drone ty for commercial and military markets. Potential Configuration: Tailsitter
registration has slowed, the growth applications include long-haul point-to-point cargo electric VTOL
in the commercial market has far out- service and delivery of goods to remote areas. Weight: 300 lb.
paced the agency’s forecasts. With Payload: 70 lb.
Such uses are outside the limits of current
416,210 commercial drones registered
regulations allowing drone operations in national Speed: 126 mph
by Nov. 19, 2019, the FAA expects its
forecast for 2022—452,000 units—will airspace, so developers face regulatory as well as Range: 35 mi.
be reached in early 2020. technical challenges. But military and commercial
An increasing proportion of com- interest is such that developers—startups and es-
mercial drones are professional grade tablished OEMs—are undeterred. Flown: October 2019
in terms of capability and safety, posi- Several developers of electric vertical-take- Configuration:
tioning the industry to further expand
off-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicles believe they could Multirotor eVTOL
once regulations allow. In its 2019 fore-
cast, the FAA says the commercial be used first for cargo operations, helping pave the Weight: 1,760 lb.
market is at an inflection point, with way for acceptance of air taxis for urban air mobil- Payload: 440 lb.
the professional grade sector, in parity. Pipsitrel and Volocopter are among the eVTOL Speed: 50-70 mph
ticular, poised to expand rapidly. startups also developing cargo UAVs. Range: 25 mi.
and Ghana. Wing is making deliveries for the MQ-9 Reaper and multidomain high-speed UAV to partner with the
direct to consumers in Australia, and operations for the MQ-1C Gray Eagle. MiG-35. And China in October 2019
other services are operating in China, Teaming between manned and un- showcased the latest version of its
Iceland and elsewhere. manned aircraft is taking on new im- stealthy flying-wing GJ-11 Sharp Sword.
The FAA’s Integration Pilot Program portance as the U.S. and its allies strive The U.S. Army is taking manned/
(IPP) is paving the way for drone de- to add combat mass to their shrinking unmanned teaming to a new level by
liveries in the U.S. Part 135 air carri- fleets of highly capable but expensive specifying that UAVs—which it calls air-
er certificates have been awarded to platforms. Boeing Australia will fly its launched effects (ALE)—be an integral
Wing and UPS, with seven more in jet-powered Airpower Teaming Sys- part of its next-generation rotorcraft:
the works. Both made their first U.S. tem UAV in 2020, advancing the “loyal the Future Attack Reconnaissance
commercial BVLOS delivery flights to wingman” concept of augmenting the Aircraft armed scout and utility Future
hospitals and homes late in 2019. capability and survivability of manned Long-Range Assault Aircraft. ALEs are
In the military arena, U.S. manufac- combat and surveillance aircraft with intended to be launched at a low alti-
turers are responding to the Penta- teams of less expensive, more dispos- tude to extend the sensor and weapon
gon’s pivot to address near-peer rivals able autonomous sensor, jammer or reach of rotorcraft and improve their
and away from the counterinsurgency weapon carriers. survivability in contested airspace.
operations that have dominated the The U.S. Air Force is flight-testing The Army and U.S. Marine Corps
past two decades. The U.S. Air Force the Kratos XQ-58A low-cost unmanned are also driving a trend toward more
has floated the idea of retiring most combat aircraft demonstrator, while expeditionary, runway-indepen-
of its Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Glob- research has been launched into “re- dent unmanned aircraft systems.
al Hawks, arguing the high-altitude, mote carriers” that will be integral The Army is field-testing four ver-
long-endurance unmanned aircraft components—along with sixth-gen- tical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL)
are unsurvivable in contested airspace. eration manned fighters—of planned designs to inform requirements for
Congress will oppose the move, French/German- and UK-led future a future tactical UAV to replace its
which has been tried before and combat air systems. workhorse Textron RQ-7 Shadow, but
blocked, but it has put manufacturers And they are not alone. In Rus- the Marines are reviewing their MUX
on notice that they must find new ways sia, Sukhoi is flight-testing the S-70 requirement for a large multimission
for their products to be relevant in Okhotnik, a large jet-powered un- ship-based VTOL UAV. c
peer conflicts. General Atomics plans manned combat aircraft designed to
to demonstrate new capabilities for its operate alongside the Su-57 stealth Gallery See a review in photographs of
Predator medium-altitude, long-endur- fighter now entering production. MiG key events in the unmanned sector in 2019:
ance family, including maritime patrol Corp. has confirmed it is developing a AviationWeek.com/Unmanned2019
YATES EL
ECTROSPAC
E
Yates Electrospace R
ELROY AI
Silent Arrow GD-2000 SA
Flown: 2018 BR
EW
Elroy Air Chaparral V1
IN
Configuration: Air-launched disposable G
AI
RC Flown: August 2019
RA
glider (electric reusable option) FT
Configuration:
Weight: 2,000 lb. Sabrewing
Winged hybrid-eVTOL
Payload: 1,631 lb. Rhaegal RG-1
Weight: 1,215 lb.
Standoff range: 40 mi. Flight (planned): 2020
Payload: 300 lb.
Configuration: Ducted-tiltfan
Speed: 120 mph
turbo-eVTOL.
Range: 300 mi.
Weight: 3,000 lb.
Payload: 1,000 lb.
Speed: 270 mph
Range: 1,150 mi.
BOEING
Volocopter Boeing CAV

VoloDrone Flown: January 2018
Propulsion: Multirotor eVTOL
Weight: 1,100 lb.
VOLOCOPTER
Payload: 500 lb.
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
Stand and Deliver 400ER. GE is also proposing a version

of the GEnx-1B to Craic, the consortium
of United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) of Rus-
sia and Comac of China developing the
> GE9X, THE MOST POWERFUL TURBOFAN, CR929 widebody twin, and hopes for a
IS SET TO POWER THE BOEING 777X decision in late 2020. Further off, GE is
also keen to restore links with Airbus
> GTF DELIVERIES ARE SET TO CLIMB and is studying potential hybrid deriv-
atives based on the GEnx with GE9X
> ADAPTIVE COMBAT ENGINES technology for possible applications in
FACE BUDGET CRUNCH the 2020s.
Although CFM caught up with 737
MAX production in 2019 after the
rate slowed in the wake of the global
grounding of the aircraft in March, the
company is slowing Leap 1B produc-
tion in response to Boeing’s decision
to temporarily halt the line starting
in January. This will further impact
CFM’s free cash flow, which through
late 2019 was already reduced by
around $110 million per month. At the
same time, the production system has
continued to improve, with almost
1,320 Leap 1A and 1B engines made
over the first three quarters of 2019,
almost double the number in 2018.
CFM competes with Pratt &
Whitney for the Airbus A320neo and,
with around 520 Leap 1A-powered air-
CFM is optimistic that Leap 1B-powered Boeing 737 MAX craft in service, claims a 63% market
deliveries will resume in the first half of 2020. share against the rival PW1100G
geared turbofan (GTF). Pratt contin-
ues to fight back with the GTF which,
MARK WAGNER/AVIATION IMAGES.COM
Guy Norris despite a nagging series of repair and
maintenance issues, is performing
A
fter battling through more 747-8, although production of both in some cases better than advertised
than two years of production, big twins is scheduled to slow later in in key areas of fuel burn, emissions
development and reliability 2020 in response to softening of the and noise.
challenges, the major civil engine man- twin-aisle market. Pratt delivered 779 large commer-
ufacturers are hoping for smoother Although GE90-115B production cial engines in 2018 and, as of the end
sailing in 2020 and possibly even the continues for 777F models as deliv- of September 2019, was on track for a
emergence of new applications. eries of passenger types transition to similar tally, having delivered almost
General Electric is banking on the GE9X-powered 777-9 through the 530 by the start of the fourth quarter.
brighter prospects in the first part of early 2020s, GE Aviation’s reliance on While the bulk of these went to Airbus
the year through turnarounds for two the GEnx will increase. The 2,000th for the A320neo family, a growing vol-
key stalled Boeing programs—the GEnx, a -1B for a 787, was delivered to ume of PW1500Gs are for the A220
777X and 737 MAX. As the sole engine Boeing in late 2019 and, according to program, which marked delivery of the
provider for the 777X (with the GE9X) GE, is now roughly a third of the way 100th engine in December. The first
and for the MAX (with the CFM Leap through the engine’s expected produc- production-standard PW1900G engine
1B coproduced with joint venture part- tion life, based mostly on forecast sales variants were also shipped to Brazil
ner Safran), GE Aviation has been af- of the 787. In competition with Rolls- for the Embraer 195-E2 at the start of
fected by setbacks to both programs Royce, GE currently claims 65-70% of 2019, while a handful of PW1400Gs and
as well as added costs to fix durability the year-over-year 787 market based PW1700Gs are powering flight tests of
issues with the 777X engine. on 2019 orders. the United Aircraft Corp. MC-21 and
Retrofitted flight-compliant GE9X Of the 2,000 GEnx deliveries, around Mitsubishi M90/100, respectively.
engines for the first two 777-9 test 725 are GEnx-2Bs for the 747-8I/8F. Besides steadying production
aircraft were delivered and installed Although -2B production continues to through 2020, Pratt will focus on intro-
by early December, clearing the way support Boeing’s assembly rate of just ducing durability and service improve-
for flight tests to begin early in 2020. six per year, the company is looking ments to the family, which has been
Deliveries of the stalwart GE90-115B at potential alternative applications developed as drop-in retrofits, as well
and GEnx-1B/2B, meanwhile, contin- for the engine including the 767-XF, a as a new-build PW1100G standard,
ue for the 777-200F/300ER, 787 and notional freighter based on the 767- which has been flight-tested on the
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
prototype A320neo. Changes increase opment timetable would suit potential neer adaptive technology appear
robustness in adverse operating condi- reengined upgrades of the A350 and to be losing direction, work on vari-
tions and include an already certified 787 later in the decade. able-cycle programs in Europe has
low-pressure turbine upgrade. Similar The near-term focus remains on an been galvanized by the launch of
hardware and software improvements accelerating series of demonstrator the Franco-German-Spanish Future
are underway to address low-pressure and rig tests that will pave the way for Combat Air System (FCAS) and the
compressor issues on the PW1500G. ground tests of the initial UltraFan UK’s Tempest sixth-generation fight-
Rolls-Royce also continues to tackle in 2021. These include the Advance3, er. Germany’s MTU and Safran plan
long-running durability issues, on the which has been used to evaluate the to develop an adaptive 30,000-lb.-
Trent 1000, and hopes to deal with the new high- and intermediate-pres- thrust engine for the program and
last of these with the completion of a sure core architecture, a series of will spend 2020 working on initial re-
high-pressure turbine-blade redesign high-power gearboxes and several ad- search and technology work for the
for the TEN variant in early 2021. The vanced fan and combustor tests. FCAS demonstrators, which may fly
work, which by 2023 will have cost the with a modified off-the-shelf engine as
company £2.4 billion ($3.2 billion) plus MILITARY HIGHLIGHTS early as 2026.
an additional £1.4 billion incurred in The next major advance in military Rolls-Royce is leading development
2019 from customer and remediation propulsion, the development of adap- of the three-stream engine for the
shop visits, covers a total of nine prob- tive—or three-airstream—engines, Tempest, based on an all-new core
lems found in the Trent 1000 Package will take big a step forward in 2020 from its secretive Advance1 technol-
B, C and TEN models. Of these, eight with the start of ground tests of tech- ogy program. The Tempest engine will
fixes have so far been designed; seven nology demonstrators in the U.S. and feature advanced thermal manage-
have been certified and are being in- of design work on similar variable-cy- ment technologies and a core-mount-
corporated into the fleet. cle engines for next-generation combat ed electrical generator.
Despite softening widebody mar- aircraft in Europe. Eager to protect its sole-source po-
kets and Boeing’s decision to pare back However, even though GE Aviation’s sition on the F-35 with its F135 engine,
787 production, Rolls-Royce is target- XA100 and Pratt & Whitney’s XA101 Pratt & Whitney is meanwhile con-
ing around 500 large civil engine de- are primed to run under the U.S. Air tinuing to cut unit costs as it works
liveries per year into the early 2020s. Force Research Laboratory’s Adap- toward an eventual output of 16 per
The bulk of these will be made up of tive Engine Transition Program, month. In late 2019 the company re-
Trent XWBs for the A350 augmented funding for follow-on phases remains ceived a $5.7 billion contract to deliver
by Trent 7000s for A330neos, Trent uncertain. Rated for 45,000 lb. thrust, 332 engines during low-rate initial pro-
900s for the final batch of A380s, and the adaptive demonstrators are sized duction lots 12-14 and expects to enter
Trent 1000 TENs for the 787. to provide a potential future engine full-rate production in 2020.
For the company’s future product for the Lockheed Martin F-35A and The Air Force’s long-running
lineup, 2020 will also be a key year of C models as well as provide the basis search for a new engine for the
tests for its geared UltraFan next-gen- for possible sixth-generation U.S. Air Boeing B-52H fleet is also expect-
eration engine. Following its decision Force and Navy air-superiority aired to reach the next stage in 2020,
earlier in 2019 to withdraw the con- craft. But a next-generation fighter when it firms up a draft request for
cept from Boeing’s new midmarket has been deferred while the Air Force proposals issued in 2019. Bidding for
airplane (NMA) engine competition, lays the groundwork for a new produc- the 650 20,000-lb.-thrust engine deal
Rolls is now targeting a notional en- tion system inspired by the Century are GE Aviation with the CF34-10
try-into-service date of around 2027. Series example of fielding six fighters and Passport, Pratt & Whitney with
Although no other specific applica- within five years. the PW800 and Rolls-Royce with the
tion has yet been identified, the devel- Ironically, while U.S. efforts to pio- F130, a variant of the BR725.
AVIATION’S THIRD AGE
From a few fledgling concepts over
recent years, the proliferation of
nonconventional hybrid and electric
propulsion developments continues to
accelerate, with a slew of new projects
entering ground tests in 2020 ahead of
planned flight tests from 2021 onward.
The traditional large engine compa-
nies—GE Aviation, Honeywell, Pratt
& Whitney parent company United
Technologies Corp., Rolls-Royce and
Safran—are all now engaged but
have been joined by startups such
as MagniX and Wright Electric. On
Dec. 10, a De Havilland Canada DHC-2
Beaver modified with a MagniX mo-
tor by Vancouver-based Harbour Air
achieved what the seaplane operator
called the maiden flight of the world’s
first all-electric commercial aircraft.
GE Aviation is developing mega-
watt-class power electronics and eye-
ing potential flight-test opportuni-
ties with NASA. The company
has already been selected by
XTI Aircraft to supply a 1-megawatt The Cranfield-led hybrid-electric
turbogenerator, based on its Catalyst Islander reengining has the UK
turboprop, for the hybrid-electric
propulsion system it is developing government’s backing.
to power the TriFan 600 ducted-fan
CRANFIELD AEROSPACE SOLUTIONS
vertical-takeoff-and-landing business
aircraft. However, based on market feedback, is supplying the 2.5-megawatt turbo-
Honeywell, one of the first en- Honeywell has also partnered with generator based on its AE2100 turbo-
gine-makers to enter the alternative Japanese automotive electric drive- prop engine as well as the 2-megawatt
power market, is pursuing both a train producer Denso to fast-track electric motor that will drive the fan
hybrid and an all-electric approach, the development of all-electric pow- from a Rolls AE3007—replacing the
starting with first runs in 2020 of er concepts for electric vertical-take- Honeywell LF507 turbofan in one of
a hybrid propulsion demonstrator off-and-landing vehicles. the inboard nacelles.
based on its HTS900 turboshaft. Another venture to watch in 2020 Rolls is supplying most of the hybrid
will be United Technologies Advanced drivetrain while Airbus is providing
Adaptive engines such as Projects’ (UTAP) ongoing modifica- the 2-megawatt battery system and
GE’s XA100 will run in 2020, but tion of a De Havilland Canada Dash 3-kilovolt electrical distribution sys-
they face some uncertainty. 8-100 regional airliner with a 2-mega- tem for the E-Fan X, which is sched-
watt parallel-hybrid propulsion sys- uled to fly in 2021. In the near term,
tem. Dubbed Project 804, the system Rolls also plans an attempt to break
replaces one of the aircraft’s regular the electric-aircraft speed record in
turboprops with a 1-megawatt thermal 2020 with the battery-powered ACCEL
engine developed by Pratt & Whitney project underway in the UK. It is part
Canada and a battery-powered of Project Fresson as well, an effort
1-megawatt electric motor developed led by Cranfield Aerospace Solutions
by Collins Aerospace. UTAP hopes to to convert the nine-passenger Brit-
demonstrate a 30% fuel saving when ten-Norman Islander to hybrid-elec-
the aircraft flies in 2022. tric propulsion for short-range flights
Rolls-Royce is aggressively develop- such as interisland routes.
ing its hybrid and electric power strat- Safran is also making a concerted
egy, most notably through the surprise push into electric propulsion and con-
acquisition of Siemens’ eAircraft unit tinues development of a suite of smart
ION
GE A
VIAT in 2019. Together with Airbus, Rolls batteries, generators, power manage-
is modifying an Avro RJ100 under ment systems and motors for hybrid
the E-Fan X project to demonstrate a and all-electric applications such as
2-megawatt-series hybrid propulsion VoltAero’s Cassio 1 testbed, for which
system for a regional airliner. Rolls it is providing two 45-kW motors. c
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
Sizing Up the The methane-burning BE-4 engine,

being used for both Blue Origin’s
New Glenn and ULA’s Vulcan rockets,
Competition underwent a hot-fire test in July.
To break its dependence on the

> SIX POSSIBLE OPTIONS FOR U.S. MILITARY SPACE LAUNCH RD-180s while addressing pricing chal-
lenges from SpaceX and others, ULA is
> AWARDS EXPECTED MID-2020 developing a new launch system called
the Vulcan. The new booster, which is
expected to debut in 2021, is intend-
ed to eventually replace both ULA’s
Atlas and Delta rocket lines, vehicles
that trace their heritage to 1950s- and
1960s-era ballistic missile programs.
Of the four companies vying to be-
come Air Force LSP contractors, ULA,
whose core business is launching U.S.
military and NASA payloads, would be
BLUE ORIGIN most affected should it not be selected.
Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral Northrop says it can close its business
case with as few as 3-4 flights a year
I
t is a testament to the ongoing trans- The Air Force plans to award two of the Omega, a two-stage, solid-fuel
formation of the U.S. launch industry five-year National Security Space booster based on space shuttle and
that not only does the Air Force have Launch Phase 2 Launch Service Pro- Space Launch System motors, paired
a record four companies vying for its curement (LSP) contracts in mid-2020 with a liquid-fueled Aerojet Rocket-
space launch business but also the only for missions procured in fiscal 2020-24 dyne RL10-powered third stage.
operational rockets proffered in the and launching through 2027. The work “What’s unique about us is that we
competition belong to plucky SpaceX, would be split 60-40% between the two don’t sell just rockets,” Charles Pre-
whose raison d’etre is the human set- companies selected. court, Northrop vice president and
tlement of Mars. SpaceX was beginning to chip away general manager for propulsion sys-
Having the sole flight-ready rock- at ULA’s monopoly on national securi- tems, tells Aviation Week. “We provide
ets does not necessarily give SpaceX ty space launches when forces outside systems to a broader base of missiles
a leg up on the competition, which in- the industry sent next-generation mil- and launch systems such as flight
cludes United Launch Alliance (ULA), itary launch service procurements off computers, structures, engines and
a partnership of Lockheed Martin in a new direction. Trade sanctions facilities management. So rather than
and Boeing, and Northrop Grumman, imposed by Congress after Russia an- stand up one rocket or even a small
which aims to parlay its solid rocket nexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in family of rockets, we leverage exist-
motor expertise into a family of na- 2014 hit incumbent contractor ULA ing parts of our business so that we
tional security—and potentially com- squarely due to the Russian-made didn’t have to invest in the facilities.
mercial—launchers called Omega. A RD-180 rocket engines that power its We largely didn’t have to bring on a
fourth contender is startup Blue Ori- workhorse Atlas V rockets. Legislators new workforce. We are adding to ex-
gin, bankrolled by tech billionaire Jeff stipulated that the U.S. military cannot isting lines of business in a way that is
Bezos, which is developing the reus- buy launches using the Russian engines able to control overhead costs, which a
able New Glenn launch system. after 2022. single-product business couldn’t.
“That gets us in the ballpark, where
SPACEX
SpaceX flew a communications satellite we can show the Air Force we can sur-
vive downturns in the economy,” Pre-
for Arabsat during its second Falcon Heavy court adds. “We can, in fact, survive in
mission on April 11. this business on very few flights.
For SpaceX and Blue Origin, winning
national security space launch business
is way to shore up their immediate and
near-term finances and gain experience
as the companies work toward their
founders’ aspirational goals to signifi-
cantly broaden humanity’s presence
beyond Earth. SpaceX’s Elon Musk
eyes human missions to Mars, while
Bezos’ Blue Origin is looking to move
Earth’s heavy industry off the planet.
Winning the Air Force business is
important enough to SpaceX and Blue
Origin that both companies filed pro- “The bidder has to be judged entire- reusable Mars-class Starship, which is
tests over the LSP program. A SpaceX ly on their own proposal so that they in development. “We did change our
lawsuit, currently with the U.S. District can be in control of putting their best strategy,” notes Shotwell.
Court for the Central District of Cal- foot forward, that this combination The Air Force does not anticipate
ifornia, is challenging $2.2 billion in thing isn’t something the bidders can that modifying the solicitation lan-
LSP development contracts awarded do because they don’t get to see the guage, as recommended by the GAO,
in 2018 to rivals ULA, Northrop and other bidders’ proposals,” Bruno notes. will delay contract awards. Among the
Blue Origin. “The Air Force will have to be very four bidders, six possible pairings exist:
Blue Origin took a preemptive strike careful in how they score all of the ULA and SpaceX, ULA and Blue Or-
at the upcoming LSA Phase 2 awards strengths and weaknesses and then igin, ULA and Northrop, SpaceX and
with a protest, partly upheld by the run that through whatever algorithm Blue Origin, SpaceX and Northrop and
Government Accountability Office they use to make sure they get the right Blue Origin and Northrop.
(GAO), over launch contract rules. The outcome,” he adds. The military launch business com-
Air Force solicitation, which is in the Beyond requiring U.S.-made rocket prises a shrinking but still important
process of being modified, stipulated engines, the Air Force wants to ensure share of the overall U.S. launch indus-
that the agency could select a pair of access to space by having two indepen- try, with 20-30% of recent missions for
companies that complemented each dent launch systems, each of which national security space, compared with
others’ strengths and weaknesses to must be able to handle a range of or- 40-60% in 2010-15, according to Phil
provide the best overall value to the bits, mission designs and payloads. The Smith, senior space analyst with Bryce
government in terms of reliability, price military also is looking for flexibility, Space and Technology, a Washing-
and technical considerations. with the ability to switch out a launch- ton-area consultancy. “The share has
The contract rules could have al- er’s payload within 12 months of flight. dropped because the number of com-
lowed the Air Force, for example, to Currently, SpaceX and ULA handle the mercial launches has increased sub-
avoid pairing companies that use the military’s intermediate and heavy-lift stantially, with most of these launches
same key components—both ULA’s space launch needs. conducted by SpaceX and Rocket Lab,”
Vulcan and Blue Origin’s New Glenn “Based on the GAO ruling and based Smith says.
are powered by Blue’s BE-4 engine— on what we’ve responded to, I don’t Overall, the number of orbital
or that share a common weakness. necessarily think that we will make any launches (both successful and failed)
The GAO, however, ruled in favor of changes to our proposal, but I’ve got in 2019 stood at 95 in mid-December,
Blue Origin, which argued that to as- to see what they write,” says SpaceX with 7-8 more missions possible before
sess independent bids as pairs was not President and Chief Operating Office year-end. China retained its title as the
reasonable and was inconsistent with Gwynne Shotwell. world’s launch leader with 32 flights,
procurement laws. “In the wording SpaceX is sticking with Falcon 9, followed by 20 for the U.S. and 19 for
they had before, the Air Force had a which racked up its 77th mission on Russia, according to Jonathan’s Space
very straightforward way of saying Dec. 16, and Falcon Heavy, which has Report, a catalog of launches and sat-
‘This pairing is better than that pair- flown three times, for the LSA Phase ellites compiled by Harvard University
ing, independent of the structured 2 work. It is the only contender with astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell. c
scoring.’ If they remove that piece that a proven launch vehicle in the offer-
the GAO felt was objectionable, they ing. For the 2018 LSA development Gallery See a review in photographs
don’t have that option anymore,” ULA procurement, which it did not win, of key events in the space launch sector
CEO Tory Bruno tells Aviation Week. SpaceX also offered its superheavy-lift, in 2019: AviationWeek.com/Launch 2019
NORTHROP GRUMMAN
Northrop Grumman conducted a full-scale static test-firing
of its Omega rocket first stage on May 30, in Utah.
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
High Throughput After manufacturing the first 10

OneWeb satellites at Airbus’s facili-
ty in Toulouse, production shifted to
a new factory in Florida adjacent to
> AIRBUS AND ONEWEB PIONEER HIGH PRODUCTION RATES NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. Two
FOR MINI-SATELLITES highly automated assembly lines have
been set up there to output one satel-
> CLOSED-LOOP DIGITALIZATION MAY HELP REFINE PROCESSES lite per line per day.
OneWeb Satellites does not say
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France, and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral when that objective will be met. How-
ever, cost and weight are said to be
I
n the satellite industry, high with Airbus—has become one of the on target—at less than $1 million and
throughput used to refer to a sat- first companies to rethink the con- below 150 kg (330 lb.).
ellite’s bandwidth. But these days struction of a satellite, ushering the The target manufacturing time
it is starting to mean something else: industry into an era of high-volume means each workstation has to pro-
fast-paced manufacturing. production. duce a module every 8 hr. The pro-
For example, SpaceX is produc- Thales Alenia Space and Northrop duction cycle for a given satellite will
ing about seven Starlink broadband Grumman have built 80 Iridium Next be measured in days.
satellites per day at its factory in satellites, the last of which reached OneWeb Satellites did not look to
Redmond, Washington. After flying orbit in February 2019. As a result, reinvent the wheel. Rather, its engi-
two prototypes in 2018, the company the two companies have created a neers imported methods that thus far
deployed 120 operational spacecraft dedicated production system in the had been used in other sectors, such
during two Falcon 9 missions this process. But the satellites’ large size as commercial aircraft manufacturing.
year to test its planned global, mobile
high-speed internet service.
Production of user terminals is tak- OneWeb Satellites has
ing place at a second Washington site, set up two production
but that effort will need to be stepped lines, each capable of
up, says SpaceX President and Chief completing one
Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell. spacecraft per day.
“It’s low-volume production. We can
build them. They look beautiful, but
they’re still a little expensive.”
SpaceX, which has yet to win ap-
proval to operate Starlink outside
the U.S., is targeting a wide range of
customers—individuals, businesses,
educational institutes and govern-
ment agencies, including the U.S.
Defense Department, which is pay-
ing SpaceX for a series of Starlink
tests to deliver high-speed data into
jet cockpits under a program called
Global Lightning.
SpaceX aims to roll out commer-
cial service in mid-2020, depending
on how quickly the initial 720-mem-
ber network can be deployed. Start-
ing in 2020, batches of 60 or so sat-
ellites will be launching every 2-3
weeks, says Shotwell.
SpaceX is hardly alone in seeking to
revolutionize broadband access with
a mega-constellation of satellites. The
first six spacecraft owned by OneWeb
reached orbit in 2019, with batches of
about 30 to follow during monthly
launch campaigns beginning in Jan- did not lend itself to radically new They also adopted a design-to-man-
uary 2020. OneWeb plans to initiate construction processes. Production ufacture approach. In other words,
service in the Arctic in late 2020 and was much slower—as it was spread some parts have been designed for
roll out global coverage in 2021. over several years—than the produc- their installation to help prevent er-
OneWeb’s manufacturing arm, tion rate OneWeb Satellites is aiming rors. Asymmetric bore locations can
OneWeb Satellites—a joint venture for, namely two spacecraft per day. prevent an operator from mistakenly
UNITED LAUNCH ALLIANCE
putting two components together up-
side down.
Clock Is Ticking for
OneWeb Satellites tapped suppli- NASA Commercial
ers new to the space sector, a group
including partners selected for their Crew Program
expertise and skill in supporting low-
cost manufacturing in the automo- ANOTHER YEAR AND STILL NO HU-
tive, personal computing and other MAN launches to orbit from the U.S.,
industries. New suppliers all had to though four Virgin Galactic pilots and
undergo a qualification process. The one engineer have made it into subor-
idea was to have a purpose-designed
bital space during trial runs of Space-
part, as opposed to a one-size-fits-all
component designed by a well-estab- ShipTwo.
lished supplier in the space industry. Virgin Galactic founder Richard Bran-
The assembly lines outside Kennedy son has talked about riding on Space-
Space Center trace their design back ShipTwo for years, but now he has
to Toulouse, where a pilot factory pro- A Boeing CST-100 Starliner being
started weightlifting and other activities
duced the first 10 OneWeb satellites. prepared for orbital flight test.
to prepare for the flight, which he ex-
In Toulouse, Airbus devised and
pects will occur in 2020, assuming the
“debugged” the production process Such time savings are conventional in
while automated guided vehicles commercial aircraft manufacturing. rest of the tests go as planned. Paying
helped streamline logistics. For ex- Digital continuity also has been passenger flights are expected to follow.
ample, a collaborative robot (cobot) introduced , which allows a single Likewise, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin
component to be tracked over its life has yet to include people on any of its
cycle. In-orbit satellites are supposed suborbital flight tests of New Shepard,
to share data that eventually may im- which conducted a 12th uncrewed
prove a part’s design and its manufac-
mission in December. Company em-
turing process.
The Toulouse factory was created ployees are expected to be aboard for
as an Airbus—as opposed to OneWeb flight tests next year.
Satellites—facility. It aims to parlay its The stakes for U.S. orbital space-
expertise building high-quality, small flight are much higher as NASA is run-
spacecraft for broadband services to ning out of launch slots for astronauts
other applications and for other cus- on Russian Soyuz spacecraft, currently
tomers. While a second customer has
the only transportation option for ferry-
yet to be found for the Arrow bus ,
Airbus has been awarded a contract ing crews to and from the International
from the Defense Advanced Research Space Station (ISS.)
Projects Agency (DARPA) to devel- Due to early funding shortfalls and
op a satellite bus in support of the technical challenges, both Boeing and
Blackjack communications networks SpaceX are years behind in efforts to
demonstration program. The bus to be develop and operate commercial space
built for DARPA will reuse the meth-
taxis for NASA. But they are getting
ods Airbus created for Arrow.
The satellite boom may be just be- close: Boeing is due to complete an un-
ginning: A December 2019 report by crewed orbital flight test of its CST-100
consultancy Frost & Sullivan forecast Starliner at the ISS in December, while
a whopping 20,425 satellites will be SpaceX aims to polish off an inflight
launched in 2019-33. Northern Sky abort demonstration in early January.
Research predicts more than 8,135 Those flights would leave both compa-
small satellites will launch in 2018-28.
nies in position for launches with crews
Around 2,000 of those satellites
could belong to OneWeb. SpaceX is in early 2020, the last major milestones
proposing to operate 12,000-42,000 before certification and the start of op-
satellites . Details about a constel- erational crew rotation missions.
lation owned by Amazon are pend- The clock is ticking. NASA’s last paid
ONEWEB SATELLITES ing. And those are just the more ride on a Soyuz launches in April. c
holds up a heavy part while the opera- well-known of some 120 smallsat
tor fits it into a subassembly. A smart constellations currently planned for
drill only starts when positioned with communications, Earth observation
the correct angle. and other services. Northern Sky Gallery See a review in photographs of
Functional checks take place estimates about 18% of the networks key events in the satellite sector in 2019:
during the assembly process as well. will come to fruition. c AviationWeek.com/Rotors2019
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Traffic and Capacity Growth, Net Profit by Region

6.6
3.9 3.7
9.1 7.9
7.5 6.2
4.5 3.8
8.8
4.9 16.9 16.5
5.1 14.5 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
2.3 4.4 5.5
5.9
5.3 9.5
3.8 3.8
1.9 3.2 4.7 4.8 6.1 4.9 6.0
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 5.0

2.6 2.5
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
4.4
4.2 4.9 2018 2019 2020
Percent of 7.3
6.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0
Traffic Growth 4.6 3.7 3.8
3.0
Percent of 7.0
Capacity Growth 4.2 4.3 2018 2019 2020
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2

2018 2019 2020
Net Profit in
0.1
U.S. $ Billions
-0.8 -0.4
2019 = Estimate
2020 = Forecast
Source: IATA
extremely tough time,” he notes, with
2020
demand contracting by 3.3% in 2019
and predicted to recover only slowly
in 2020, if at all. And on the passen-
ger side, the industry has deviated
downward from its long-term growth
path of around 5% annually and the
SHAKY ASSUMPTIONS much faster expansion it experienced

over the past few years: IATA predicts
passenger traffic will show only a 4.2%
increase in 2019.
IATA forecasts slight rise in airline profits, The lower 2019 profit basis is equiv-
alent to around 50% of the peak mar-
but uncertainty is high gins airlines reached in 2015 and 2016.
And there have been several high-pro-
Jens Flottau Geneva file failures, including tour operator
O
Thomas Cook, taking with it a large
n the surface, the International Air Transportation part of its airline unit and Icelandic
Association (IATA) is offering an optimistic global air- low-cost carrier WOW Air. Many other
airlines are struggling, including Nor-
line industry outlook for the next year. After all, the wegian, a pioneer in the latest wave of
$29 billion in net profits it forecasts is more than 10% long-haul low-cost travel. The truth is,
higher than the $25 billion recorded in 2019. But when examined as IATA describes it, only around 30
airlines globally “have been responsi-
closely, the figures provide more reason for concern than for ble for the improvement over the past
optimism. The golden times of 2015 and 2016, when the industry 10 years,” including, most importantly,
reported record margins, are unlikely to recur soon. the big U.S. carriers reaping the bene-
fits of industry consolidation. “There is
A quick look back delivers some result was so much different than ex- a long trail of airlines barely breaking
context. A year ago, IATA predicted pected: trade wars. even and a group making significant
a $35 billion profit for the industry for IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce losses,” Pearce says. For these, “per-
2019 and twice had to revise its guid- says the worldwide slowdown in air formance has not improved over the
ance downward in what ultimately travel since early 2018 reflects “the last decade”—which he considers is
became a reduction of almost 30% damaging impact of the trade war the reason why “we have seen a se-
compared to its initial forecast. The on economic growth and business ries of airline failures over the last
single most important reason why the confidence.” Air cargo is having “an two years.”
International Trade and People To Watch
Global GDP Growth Steve Dickson, FAA Administrator
20%
Steve Dickson, FAA administrator
since August 2019, is not just the
15% International Trade in Goods Growth key figure in determining when and
Percent Change Year-Over-Year
how the Boeing 737 MAX will return

10% to commercial service. His other
priorities include restoring confidence
5% in the FAA, much criticized for having delegated
too much to Boeing, and defining the agency’s role
Global GDP Growth in future aircraft certification programs and drone
0%
integration in the national airspace.
-5% Patrick Ky, EASA Executive Director

Patrick Ky has been EASA’s executive
-10% director since 2013. But he has
never been in a more powerful
position than now. The Boeing 737
-15%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MAX crisis cast doubts over the
FAA leadership role and Ky already
Source: IATA IMF World Economic Outlook has indicated EASA intends to play a more active
and independent role in future aircraft certification
programs such as the upcoming 777X.
Aircraft Deliveries and Stan Deal, Boeing Executive Vice President

Having previously been in charge of
Capacity Growth* Boeing’s project to transform its
services business, Stan Deal is
20% 8% facing an even greater challenge:
Deliveries as Percent of Fleet He has to solve the myriad problems
7% Percent Change Year-Over-Year facing the company’s commercial
10% aircraft segment—getting the 737 MAX back in
6%
service, solving the 777X development issues
ASK Growth (YoY) while finding new customers and making key
Percent of Fleet
5%
5% strategy calls including on the planned new mid
4% market airplane (NMA).
7.5%
0% 6.8% 6.9% 3% Jacob Schram, incoming Norwegian CEO
6.7% 6.7%
Over the past few months, acting
2% Norwegian Chief Financial Officer
-10% 5.1% Geir Karlsen has managed to
1% stabilize an airline that looked close
to a collapse a year ago. In January,
-15% 0% Jacob Schram willl be taking over
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20E 2020
Schedule the airline, and he faces the difficult task of making
*Narrowbody jets, widebody jets, regional jets, regional turboprops Norwegian sustainable for the long-term. Schram,
57, has decades of experience in running large
Source: IATA Ascend companies but is new to aviation.
Augustus Tang, Cathay Pacific CEO

Augustus Tang was away from Cathay
Passenger and Cargo Pacific for 11 years, having run
maintenance company Haeco. He
Demand Trends was hired back in 2019 to run the
20% airline following the resignation of
PHOTOS FROM TOP: FAA, EASA, BOEING, NORWEGIAN, CATHAY PACIFIC, UNITED
Rupert Hogg at what looked like the

peak of the political crisis in Hong Kong. Since
15% then the situation has become worse, not better,
Percent Change Year-Over-Year
and Tang has had to deepen cuts to the airline’s

Air Travel network to keep pace with the reduction in demand.
10% His task: steering Cathay Pacific through one of its
Volume Growth
worst crises.
5%
Scott Kirby, United Airlines President
It has been three years since Scott
0% Kirby joined United as president,
having just left American Airlines.
Cargo Volume
Since then he has served as No.
Growth
-10% 2 under CEO Oscar Munoz. In May,
Kirby will become the CEO of a major
-15% airline, after having been in top management for
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 over 20 years. His know-how is undoubted, but now
he will have to prove that he also has the people--
Source: IATA management skills needed, too.
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It is also the reason why the indus- Oil Price Development

try remains vulnerable, particularly to
$120
“cash-flow shocks” as the high levels
of debt for some airlines mean a con- 110
tinuing burden of fixed expenses for 100
repayment and interest. 90 Nov. 2018
While IATA no longer anticipates
U.S. $ Per Barrel

Futures Curve
a recession and actually now believes 80
global GDP growth could be higher 70

in 2020, the industry group’s current 60
forecasts are based on the assumption Dec. 2019
50 Futures Curve
of a “trade war truce,” among other
things. This assumes current tariffs 40
will stay until at least the U.S. elections 30
in November but will not be increased.
20
As a result, international trade could 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
grow from its 0.9% increase in 2019
to 3.3%, which IATA considers “still Source: IATA, Platts, Refinitive Datastream
exceptionally low” and only margin-
ally higher than the expected rise in
global GDP.
Another uncertainty is the degree
of capacity growth. Airlines world- Airline Industry Profitability
wide are expected to take delivery of
more than 2,100 aircraft in 2020. At $50 10%
7.5% of the in-service fleet, that is a
40 8%
higher share than has been seen for a
Percent of Operating Revenue

number of years and much more than 30 6%
the 5.1% recorded for 2019. Operating Profit Margin
The future of the Boeing 737 MAX is 20 4%
U.S. $ Billions
an obvious factor. There were no MAX

10 2%
deliveries after March 2019, and there
will be none until early 2020. Whether 0 0%
airlines then are forced to add more Net Post-Tax Profits
capacity than justified by market con- -10 -2%
ditions depends on several factors. It
-20 -4%
is not yet clear how long reintroduc-
tion of the MAX will take, and its real -30 -6%
impact on capacity may only be felt 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
in the summer or later. Airlines also Source: IATA

have some flexibility, as they can re-
sume aircraft retirements that were
delayed to fill in capacity gaps with the
MAX out of service.
Keeping capacity under tight con- Air Cargo Development
trol will be important. Even if there is
20%
a trade-war truce, IATA expects air
travel to grow by only 4.1% in 2020.
Cargo volume is expected to return 15%
from its 3.3% drop this year and show
a slight, 2% growth. 10%
While the industry profit level will
improve a bit, assuming no major 5%
events change the picture, financial 2.0
sustainability is not evenly distrib-
0%
uted. North American airlines will
remain the most profitable players,
-3.3
followed by European carriers. Latin -5%
American and Asia-Pacific airline re-
sults are likely to remain below profit -10%
levels expected by investors, and the
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
situation is even worse for airlines in Forecast

the Middle East and Africa. c Source: IATA
Mission-Focused.
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Safety p. 88 Sustainability p. 90 Business aviation p. 94 Civil rotocraft p. 96 Urban air mobility p. 96
Civil data center p. 98 Air transport profiles pp. 100-108 Cargo p. 109
DEFINING YEAR
> BOEING TARGETS RETURNING 737 MAX TO SERVICE IN 2020
> CUSTOMER RECEPTION FOR MAX TO DETERMINE FUTURE PRODUCT STRATEGY
> AIRBUS A321XLR LEADS CONTINUING NEO SALES SUCCESS
> AIRBUS PRODUCTION CHALLENGES TO PERSIST THROUGH 2021
Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles and Bradley Perrett Beijing
L
ooking ahead at the next year or so in aerospace normal- able to extend the life of the MAX and
whether development work on a new
ly entails reviewing aircraft programs that are awaiting single-aisle will have to be accelerated.
certification, production challenges, the changing compet- As if all of that were not enough,
itive landscape, and the outlook for trade and passenger the industry is facing the very real
prospect of becoming entangled in an
demand, which typically translates into more or fewer aircraft escalating trade war between Europe,
orders—and more or less serious problems for airlines. the U.S. and China, the effects of which
are already being felt by all sides. The
But even before it begins, 2020 will regulators, suppliers, operators and U.S. is levying import tariffs on Airbus
be different because, as the year gets Boeing’s own product decisions. aircraft other than those built in Mo-
underway, the industry will continue First and foremost will be the bile, Alabama, or Montreal. Because
to grapple with the unprecedented repercussions for the company’s of these trade tensions, China has not
turmoil caused by the grounding and proposed new midmarket airplane ordered the Boeing 787s the company
production halt of the Boeing 737 MAX. (NMA) and determining whether Air- needed to sustain the 14 aircraft per
The slower-than-expected comeback bus’ market share advantage in the month production rate for its latest
effort will overshadow everything— narrowbody segment is permanent widebody. And when the World Trade
and its ripple effects will reverberate and growing. It also will be an indi- Organization (WTO) authorizes the
throughout the business, affecting cator of just how long Boeing will be European Union to impose tariffs on
The Boeing 737-10 was rolled out in

November, one rare bit of good news
for the troubled MAX program.
BOEING
Boeing aircraft at some point in the ternationally registered fleets possi- American Airlines has ordered 50
first part of 2020, to compensate for bly following several weeks or months A321XLRs and Delta Air Lines also has
damage caused by state subsidies, the later. Another factor that may cause a large A321neo order that could con-
fallout is all but guaranteed to become additional delays is the FAA’s deci- ceivably be converted to the XLR al-
much worse. sion, announced in late November, to though Delta has made clear it remains
bring certification for airworthiness interested in the NMA as these carri-
BOEING RECOVERY and export certification in-house for ers, like United, seek replacements for
Events in 2020 will also largely dic- all grounded and stored, undelivered their aging Boeing 757 fleets. “We have
tate the fortunes of Boeing Com- 737s until it is confident Boeing has never believed that the NMA business
mercial Airplanes for the rest of the “fully functional quality control and case added up, nor do we believe that
decade across every sector, ranging verification processes in place” and the particular market segment (250
from the single-aisle and midsize the delivery process is “stable,” the seats/4,000-5,000 nm) has ever justi-
markets to the higher-capacity twin- agency says. fied a stand-alone new model,” Agen-
aisle battleground. One of the biggest mid-to-long-term cy Partners analyst Sash Tusa wrote
Derailed by the global grounding impacts of the MAX crisis was Boeing’s in a note to clients. “With the 757 re-
of the MAX fleet in March 2019 and difficult decision, announced on Dec. 16, placement now sewn up by the XLR,
the subsequent temporary production to temporarily halt production starting we think that Boeing will have to move
halt in the wake of two fatal accidents, in January 2020. Instead of building up swiftly and publicly toward offering a
as well as by engine-related delays to more inventory, the move enables Boe- 737 MAX replacement.”
the 777X program, Boeing’s carefully ing to focus on dispatching the back- Nonetheless, Boeing for now is still
choreographed product development log of 400+ undelivered aircraft built proposing to offer two main NMA ver-
master plan from the early 2010s has during 2019 in addition to supporting sions—the 225-seat NMA-6X and 275-
been significantly altered. Amid the the return to service of the 387 MAXs seat NMA-7X, with the larger of the
overall MAX program woes, the last stored around the world since the pair expected to be developed first. No
family variant—the 737-10—has en- grounding. Amid this disruption to the firm decisions have yet been announced
tered development, with first flight manufacturing system, as well as the by Boeing on the prospective timing of
expected in the first quarter. uncertain timeline for recertification, it the program or the identity of key sup-
The aircraft, which is 66 in. longer now seems unlikely that Boeing’s orig- pliers such as the engine partner. The
than the 737-9, was rolled out at Renton inal plan to ramp up 737 production to GE-Safran CFM International joint
during a low-key employee event in No- 57 per month can be achieved until late venture is competing against Pratt &
vember 2019 and is designed to carry 2021 at the earliest. Whitney to be the sole-source supplier,
up to 230 passengers in a single-class The unprecedented scale of the Rolls-Royce having officially dropped
layout. Equipped with the updated MAX grounding also has affected the out of the contest in early 2019.
flight control system and software company’s plans to launch the NMA. Engines could also be a key pac-
developed for the other family mem- While there has been speculation that ing factor for Boeing as it weighs any
bers, the test campaign will focus on Boeing may be considering pushing moves to accelerate plans for a 737 re-
unique elements of the stretched de- back the NMA and even reprioritizing placement. With all the major engine
sign including wider midaircraft-exit its next project focus toward a new/re- makers challenged by costly devel-
doors for faster passenger evacuation, placement single-aisle airplane (NSA/ opment programs and, in the case of
handling qualities and semi-levered RSA), sources within the company’s Pratt and Rolls-Royce, expensive up-
landing gear. The program may also product development strategy unit grade issues for in-service products,
benefit from lessons learned in deal- tell Aviation Week that launching the the appetite for a second all-new en-
ing with earlier design issues uncov- NMA remains the near-term goal. gine beyond the 50,000-lb.-thrust class
ered with the additional exits in 2019 Although Boeing originally had designs for the NMA remains limited.
during tests of the high-capacity 737 hoped the NMA could be launched in But the engine manufacturers are
MAX- 200 variant of the 737-8. time to enter service in 2025, the focus more than eager to find new applica-
The MAX return to service is on putting the beleaguered MAX back tions for existing products. GE has
meanwhile dragging into the new year into service has delayed moves to close floated the idea of reengining the 767-
as Boeing completes the last mile- the business case and seek permission 400 with a new variant of the GEnx-2B
stones for recertification. Following in 2019 from the company’s board for currently built for the 747-8. Dubbed
the FAA certification flight to finalize formal authority to offer (ATO). With the 767-XF, the new variant would
fixes to the MCAS software, these resolution of the MAX crisis drifting be offered first as a freighter-only
remedial steps include Boeing’s final deeper into 2020, the ATO for the NMA version of the venerable twinjet but
submission of certification materials is expected to come later in the year. could—in principle—form the basis
to the FAA and its package of propos- However, the NMA business case for a lower-cost passenger option for
als to the Joint Operational Evaluation suffered a setback when United Air- the NMA.
Board’s simulator training evaluation lines placed an order for 50 Airbus Meanwhile, Boeing is poised to
to finalize pilot training requirements. A321XLRs to replace its fleet of Boe- deliver the first 767 produced at the
Depending on the progress made ing 757s. The airline clearly came to recently stepped-up rate of three per
through these steps, the return to the conclusion that the larger versions month. Although the company deliv-
commercial service for U.S.-regis- of the MAX were not a viable replace- ered the final passenger 767 in 2014,
tered aircraft is now expected in ment alternative for the 757, nor was production of the freighter version has
March at the earliest, with other in- it worth waiting for Boeing’s NMA. continued, underpinned largely by the
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Airbus has suffered some setbacks for “optimistic.” Indications are that the
its widebody backlog and has to hope delays will be overcome in 2021 at
sales will gain momentum in 2020. the very earliest. The issues on the
A320neo family go back to 2018, when
Airbus had to stop deliveries for sev-
eral months mainly because of en-
gine rework on the Pratt & Whitney
PW1100G. When the engines were
fixed and the delivery stream seemed
on the verge of being normalized, Air-
bus discovered that Pratt and CFM
International were not the only ones
to blame. At that point, the Hamburg
final assembly line moved into the
spotlight. “In 2019, we woke up to the
[Airbus Cabin Flex (ACF)] challenge,”
Faury says.
The ACF is the far more complex
A321neo cabin designed to allow more
AIRBUS PHOTOS
spacious, comfortable premium layouts
KC-46A tanker variant for the U.S. Air layed the start of flight tests from mid- mainly for the A321LR and XLR that
Force. The rate increase, announced 2019 to early 2020. First deliveries to should eventually become common
in April 2018, reflects consistent or- Emirates and Lufthansa have subse- on all A321neos. ACF-related changes
ders from freight operators FedEx and quently been pushed back to 2021. include the removal of the exit doors
UPS. As of early December, the un- located forward of each wing, which are
delivered backlog stood at almost 100 AIRBUS CHALLENGES replaced with overwing emergency ex-
aircraft, most of which are for FedEx. For Airbus, 2020 also looks like a year its. The third door pair, located aft of
Boeing is simultaneously bolster- of recovery but in a very different way the wings, are also moved further back.
ing sales and marketing campaigns than Boeing. Although it is not banned Building the ACF requires around
in 2020 for the 777 and 787, both of from delivering its highest-volume 30% more work than a standard
which are facing weaker demand aircraft, Airbus continues to strug- A321neo. Airbus continues to produce
amid sluggish sales for twin-aisles gle simply with the overwhelming the standard variant, but the majority
and headwinds from trade tensions amount of work needed to ramp up of A321neos will be ACFs. Chief Oper-
with China. In response to these pres- production and introduce multiple ating Officer Michael Schoellhorn adds
sures, Boeing has already decided to new aircraft variants at the same that the A321XLR variant requires an-
trim back production of the 787 from time. other 10-15% of extra work on top of the
the current 14 per month to 12 starting Finally getting its production pro- already-complex configuration.
in late 2020. Production of the 777 is cess sorted out will be the top priority With the transition from the final
also due to slow from 3.5 per month for Airbus in 2020. Customers world- batch of the A320ceo family to the Neos,
to three during the same timeframe. wide continue to see delivery dates of and the rate increases, the production
The company hopes 787 produc- their aircraft orders—mainly versions problems have spiraled out of control.
tion will accelerate again around of the A321neo—being pushed back by Faury’s target is now to “stabilize delays
2022, when a wave of small-to-medi- weeks and often months. Internation- in spite of the ramp-up.” Getting back
um widebody replacement orders is al Airlines Group CEO Willie Walsh on track and on schedule is a project
expected. Overall, Boeing forecasts a has long called the delays unaccept- that he believes can be completed only
requirement for around 1,000 aircraft able, and he is one of many. Air Lease by 2021. “I think we are doing the right
in this sector by the late 2020s. The Corp. Executive Chairman Steven things,” he says. One of the main pillars
backlog for the current 777 has dwin- Udvar-Hazy has also had numerous of this recovery effort is an additional
dled to around 60 aircraft, the bulk conversations and meetings with Air- final assembly line in Toulouse, mainly
of which are 777F freighter models, bus about the issue. As a result of the to be used for A321neos.
and provides a weaker-than-hoped- delays, New York-based JetBlue Air- The move is part of a broader pro-
for “bridge” to sustain the line until ways had to scale back its fleet growth duction study undertaken by Schoell-
production of the follow-on 777X to what it calls an “unusually low” lev- horn to provide more capacity quick-
steps up from 2020-21 onward. el. The airline had planned to take 13 ly to tackle the severe delays. Airbus
The initial 777X variant, the 777- A321neos in 2019 but was told by Air- so far has eight final assembly lines
9, is expected to make its first flight bus that it would receive only six. (FAL) for the A320/A320neo family.
in January, following the delivery of To the surprise of many, Chief Com- Four are in Hamburg, two are in Tou-
retrofitted flight-compliant GE9X en- mercial Officer Christian Scherer said louse, and the remaining two are in
gines in October and November. The at the recent Dubai Airshow that he Mobile, Alabama, and Tianjin, China.
revised engines incorporate changes expected the A321neo delays “to evap- The German site added the fourth line
to improve durability following the orate over the next few months.” Even in 2017 to grow capacity, but teething
discovery of issues with the compres- his boss Guillaume Faury, while stay- issues have led to less efficient produc-
sor inlet guide vanes, which have de- ing diplomatic, called that assessment tion there in the early years.
Toulouse builds A319s and A320s, of the A380 program, with the last air- ing to higher rates. Some see a risk of
while Hamburg makes all three mod- craft being handed over to Emirates having to slow down production post-
els. Mobile also produces A321s but in 2021 although likely to be built next 2022 if orders remain at low levels. The
not so-called “heads of versions”—the year. That meant that Airbus needed A350-1000 now can accommodate a
first aircraft for a new customer or in to identify other ways to fill the large 480-seat configuration, 40 more than
a new configuration. Mobile and Tian- existing facilities there. previously. The 777-9 exit limit is at 475.
jin currently build a combined 10 air- However, the shift to Toulouse is The narrowbody production issues
craft per month, with the majority of less straightforward than it initial- come at a time when Airbus could take
the rest allocated to Hamburg. Airbus ly appears. The two existing FALs advantage of the MAX crisis and gain
delivered an average of 48 single-aisles for the A319 and A320 are in urgent an even bigger share of the narrow-
per month in the first 11 months of 2019 need of modernization. As new tools body market. Whether and when that
(not counting 41 A220 deliveries), less and processes are introduced, capac- will happen depends on the extent to
than the 52 handed over in the first half ity can be expected to temporarily which Boeing succeeds in regaining
of 2019. The company does not publish decline—an effect that the third line customer trust in the aircraft.
a precise split between production at would have to compensate for initially Airbus has another lever that pro-
Hamburg and Toulouse. before providing room for growth. The vides much-hoped-for growth potential:
“We need greater flexibility in the timing of such modernization moves the A220. A year and a half after Airbus
Airbus-wide production network,” also depends on the progress in fixing took control of the former Bombardier
Schoellhorn says. Adding a line in A321neo ACF bottlenecks. C Series, sales are gaining momentum
Toulouse will “relieve Hamburg, The year 2020 will witness the final and the strategic value of the takeover
where the main burden of the ramp- drizzle of A320ceo deliveries. At the has become undeniable. As Boeing pon-
up of the long-range versions and their end of November, only seven A319s, ders its future product strategy, Airbus
complex cabin configurations lies.” 23 A320s and 47 A321s remained in has the most modern and efficient sin-
Airbus planned to achieve an output the backlog. gle-aisle model in its portfolio. It does
of up to 60 narrowbody aircraft per Airbus also has to manage the not have to worry about whether the
month by the end of 2019, a target that transition from the A330ceo to the A319neo will be a success; it has the
now looks likely to slip into 2021 even A330neo despite continuing delays in A220-300 instead. Further into the
if the traditional year-end rally allows Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine deliv- future, Airbus can easily position an
some recovery. The manufacturer has eries. Airbus has yet to deliver 21 A330- A320neo-family successor with high-
committed to 63 per month in 2021. 200s, 19 -300s and four A330Fs before er capacities because the A220-300
With 3,201 firm orders at the end the first-generation line is closed. The and the stretched -500 already on the
of November, the A321neo makes up backlog for the -900 is solid at 285 air- drawing board can backfill the gap that
almost 45% of the firm order back- craft, 37 of which have been delivered. exists around 150-180 seats.
log of the A320neo family. The model Kuwait Airways remains the only cus- As for the A320neo, the challenge
will represent about 50% of Hamburg tomer for the -800 for now. lies in the execution. Airbus has start-
production soon, driven by demand The A350, Airbus’ most important ed construction of the third A220 final
for higher-capacity narrowbodies and widebody program, is running smooth- assembly line in Mobile. The first two
the new A321LR and XLR versions. In ly at a production rate of 10units per are based at the former Bombardier
comparison, the A321 share of sales month. Given the economic uncer- facility in Mirabel near Montreal. The
was only 22% in the classic A320 family. tainties and recent cancellations or first Mobile-built A220 is still made in
The A319 had 18% and the A320 60%. deferrals (including one from United the adjacent A320 hangar and will be
Toulouse was chosen, among other Airlines), Airbus has decided to keep delivered in 2020. The A220-dedicated
reasons, because of the winding down output stable for now rather than mov- building is to open late next year, allow-
Air France took delivery of its

first A350 and ordered more,
trading in its fleet of A380s.
AviationWeek.com/ATWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 23, 2019-JANUARY 12, 2020 85
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ing Airbus to build up to four A220s per acted out of fear and could have thrived Orders for Comac’s first airliner—
month once production is in full swing. without the tie-up, particularly now the ARJ21 regional jet—are exceeding
All A220s earmarked for U.S. cus- that the A220 appears to be moving expectations, the state company says.
tomers are to be delivered from Mo- upmarket with the sales success of the In an obviously coordinated move, the
bile—so far, customers include Delta, -300, the declining role of the smaller three biggest Chinese airlines each or-
JetBlue and David Neeleman’s Moxy. -100 and the expected -500 launch, dered 35 ARJ21s Aug. 30. Deliveries are
Mobile provides welcome relief for Air- which will move it away from direct due to begin in 2020.
bus as the company battles the fallout competition with Embraer. Many also Japan’s dimensionally comparable
from new tariffs on aircraft imported fear that Boeing has no real interest in but more advanced regional jet, the
into the U.S., currently set at 10%, in selling the E2 and that the potential for Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet, was
the dispute over state subsidies in a joint campaigns with the MAX will be due for first delivery in mid-2020 af-
World Trade Organization (WTO) case. limited anyway. The one upside for Em- ter 12 years of development. But the
The European case against the U.S. braer is its possible involvement in de- president of the program majority
and Boeing is likely to reach the retal- veloping future Boeing aircraft such as owner Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,
iation stage fairly soon, at which point the NMA or a large role in a new nar- Seiji Izumisawa, said in November the
the European Union could impose tar- rowbody. Gaining market momentum test-flight program was under review.
iffs on Boeing imports in the spring of for the E2 is the near-term challenge. Delivery could be further delayed.
2020, providing an unwelcome oppor-
CHEN CHENG
tunity for further escalation.
As Airbus is starting to reap the
benefits of its A220 deal, Boeing’s pro-
posed takeover of Embraer’s Commer-
cial Aircraft unit is still up in the air,
with the European Commission (EC)
having launched an in-depth stage two
regulatory review. The EC argues that
the Embraer E2 family provides some
level of competition at the lower end of In early December, the fifth C919
the narrowbody segment, though most prototype left Shanghai to transfer
in the industry would disagree with the to a test base at Nanchang.
assessment that the E2 competes with
any of the MAX versions. However, the
EC is concerned that the U.S.’ aggres-
sive stance on trade matters and tariffs
could lead to a de facto monopoly for
Boeing in the U.S., with Airbus unable DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA The type was formerly known as
to export aircraft as tariffs rise. The Craic CR929 widebody airliner the MRJ. A new version, the SpaceJet
Boeing Brazil Commercial was ex- program should wrap up supplier M100, replaces the originally planned
pected to have been set up by the end of selection in 2020, around three years MRJ70 with the aim of achieving as
2019, but the start date is now shifting after full-scale development was much payload-range capability with-
well into 2020. That process is more launched. The consortium of Comac in the gross-weight limit imposed on
complex than it appears, as administra- and United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) outsourcing carriers by pilot contract
tive dismantling and the relocation of passed a milestone late in 2019 when terms (scope clauses) at major U.S.
staff into the future, smaller Embraer the two sides finally agreed that the airlines. The larger version, the Space-
and the commercial unit is already well engineering center would be in Mos- Jet M90, formerly the MRJ90, does
underway. Running the business while cow. The CR929 will enter the market not comply with those terms. It will
the company is being restructured will in the mid-2020s, says Anatoly Ser- be the first version to enter service.
be a burden well into next year. dyukov, the head of aviation business- The first airframe of Avic’s MA700
Once Boeing and Embraer have re- es at UAC partner Rostec, apparently regional turboprop program has en-
ceived the all-clear from regulators, referring to the timing of first delivery. tered production and will be used for
they can go about proving that the Comac looks like it will have a com- static strength-testing. The state com-
combination was the right move in the plete fleet of flight-test aircraft for its pany plans to fly the first complete
first place. There are still two schools of C919 narrowbody program in 2020, MA700 in 2020. As of September, the
thought about this. Embraer’s manage- achieving the milestone later than it airframe of that aircraft was due for
ment argues that the company had no was expected, in the first half of 2019. completion around the end of 2019.
choice but to find a strong partner, as it The first delivery aircraft is also due Three more flight-test aircraft should
is now competing against behemoth Air- for completion in 2020—though not be delivered in 2020, followed by a stat-
bus rather than financially struggling due for actual delivery until 2021. Cer- ic fatigue-test airframe. Avic plans to
Bombardier, which has now exited the tification of the C919 is now due in 2021, achieve MA700 certification in 2022. c
commercial aircraft business following a year later than the earlier schedule.
the sale of the CRJ program to Mitsub- This slippage raises the possibility Gallery See a review in photographs
ishi and of the Q400 to Longview. that lead operator China Eastern Air- of key events in commercial aviation in
The other school believes Embraer lines will not get its first C919 until 2022. 2019: AviationWeek.com/Commercial2019
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Changes in how
aircraft are certified
could affect the Boeing
777X program.
The MAX ordeal has

spotlighted numerous
issues that regulators
and industry must ad-
dress. Boeing lobbied the
FAA to keep information
about the MAX’s Maneu-
vering Characteristics
Augmentation System
(MCAS) flight control
law out of pilot manu-
als and training materi-
Added Scrutiny
als. Boeing’s rationale:
BOEING
Pilots would evaluate
MCAS-related malfunc-
tions as common failures,
such as a runaway stabilizer. They did
> GLOBAL REGULATORS TO VALIDATE EACH OTHER’S WORK MORE OFTEN not need to know what was causing the
issue—just how to respond. The FAA
> HUMAN FACTORS MUST HAVE MORE INFLUENCE IN AIRCRAFT DESIGN approved the requests.
Two fatal MAX accidents with-
Sean Broderick Washington in five months showed Boeing was
wrong. The FAA has acknowledged
I
n the coming years, aircraft certifi- cised a leadership role in the promo- pilots should have known about the
cation efforts are likely to be more tion and development of global avia- MCAS, which was added to the MAX
drawn out and scrutinized, human tion safety. We have helped raise the to address handling stability issues
factors experts will have greater in- bar on safety standards and practices created by the model’s larger engines
fluence throughout the design and ap- around the world, working with [the compared to those on the previous
proval processes, and regulators will International Civil Aviation Organiza- generation of 737s. Changes to the
evaluate each other’s decisions more tion (ICAO)] and other civil aviation MAX that the FAA is expected to
closely rather than embracing blanket authorities,” says FAA Administrator mandate include adding the MCAS
reciprocity—even if they have collabo- Steve Dickson. “We have an opportu- to manuals and training.
rated for years. nity to do even more.” The FAA’s oversight of the MAX
These are just some of the changes For regulators that certify air trans- development and approval has raised
the Boeing 737 MAX saga will trigger in port aircraft, this process includes concerns with other regulators. One
global aviation safety. Signs of change recognizing their decisions have ram- immediate result: Many plan to vali-
already are evident in the FAA’s ap- ifications beyond the companies they date at least some of Boeing’s proposed
proach to gaining consensus on Boe- regulate. In the U.S., for instance, a changes on their own instead of accept-
ing’s proposed MAX changes. The 2013 rule change increased minimum ing the FAA’s judgment. This likely
group of pilots evaluating the MAX’s standards for airline first officers to will carry into future certification pro-
modified flight control computer soft- at least 750 hr. for pilots with military grams, starting with the Boeing 777X.
ware as part of formal approval efforts experience, and as many as 1,500 hr. “In the case of the MAX, there were
have come from around the world and if other qualifications are not met. some shortcomings on the Boeing side
have varied experience levels. In the Airlines that the FAA regulates must and in the relationship between Boeing
past, the FAA relied heavily on feed- abide by the new rules, but the air- and the FAA,” European Union Aviation
back from U.S. pilots. craft the agency certifies are flown by Safety Agency Executive Director Pat-
Change is evident at the industry carriers around the world, and many rick Ky says. “It is a bit too early to draw
level as well. Late-summer simulator countries have different requirements. definite conclusions. We have started
demonstrations by Boeing of the mod- “We’ve always done the [pilot train- discussing with the FAA what we are
ified MAX software included at least ing] evaluations with the mindset of going to do next, and how we will be
one pilot with no MAX experience. our system and our understanding of organizing ourselves in the future. I’m
While seemingly subtle, the new our system,” a senior U.S. government certain that the FAA will review some
approach constitutes an acknowledg- official says. “[The MAX situation] has of their processes after all of this.”
ment that regulators and manufactur- highlighted that when you have the Bigger-picture issues linked to pilot
ers must view their work with a broad- majority of the fleet going [to other performance also will be addressed—
er perspective. countries], maybe we have to look at and likely debated.
“Over the years, the FAA has exer- it differently.” “Basic assumptions about trained
and qualified flight crew response to triggered by the MAX accident inves- systems do not function as intended.
malfunctions used in the design and tigations also cited as a weakness a This issue may be complicated further
certification of the 737 MAX 8 did not lack of human factors input into flight by the variations in pilot training, skills
appear to hold in the two accident cas- deck design. and experience entering air carrier
es, based on preliminary information,” Improved aircraft design will help service worldwide.”
says a report into the MAX’s flight con- bridge gaps between hardware and The MAX’s phased grounding cre-
trol system from the Joint Authorities human performance. But some regu- ated another issue that must be ad-
Task Force (JATR), which comprised lators, including the FAA, are urging dressed.
representatives from 10 regulators. actions on the operational side as well. As other regulators banned the
The task force determined the “If we are to continue to raise the MAX in the two days after Ethiopian
long-accepted pilot recognition and re- bar for safety across the globe, it will be Airlines Flight 302’s (ET302) March 10
action time standards, extant since the important for the FAA and our interna- accident, the FAA held firm. On March
1960s, need revisiting. “No studies were tional partners to foster improvements 12, then-Administrator Dan Elwell said
found that substantiate the FAA guid- in standards and approaches, not just the information the agency had “pro-
ance concerning pilot recognition time for how aircraft are designed and vides no basis to order grounding the
and pilot reaction time,” the JATR says. produced but also how they are main- aircraft, nor have other civil aviation
A NASA study of airline pilots “found tained and operated,” Dickson says. authorities provided data to us that
substantially longer recognition times A paper copresented by the U.S., would warrant action.” Overnight, the
and reactions time, even in the case of Canada, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago FAA received new details from ET302’s
expected events,” than the FAA’s fig- last September urged ICAO to examine accident site as well as satellite track-
ures, the task force adds. “automation dependency” around the ing data that changed its view.
“Modern aircraft can have subtle world and develop recommendations to Such a lack of unification creates
failure modes that may take substantial address areas of concern. problems for airlines that routinely
amounts of time to be recognized,” the “Although increased use of automa- operate single flights that traverse
report continues. “Furthermore, au- tion has enhanced safety, this trend airspace in multiple countries. Having
tomation can mask some failures and is also likely contributing to a lack of the same aircraft grounded in one ju-
significantly delay the possibility for practice and therefore potentially a risdiction and not another also raises
the pilot to recognize the malfunction.” degradation of pilot skills in flight path questions.
One remedy: Lean on scientific management using manual flight con- As regulators work on finding com-
studies to establish “appropriate pilot trol,” the paper says. “These skills are mon ground on global aviation safety
recognition times and reaction times” essential for pilot confidence and com- issues, agreeing on a threshold for
and incorporate these into guidance. petence, and they are necessary to take when to ground aircraft demands a
Recommendations from the NTSB control of the aircraft when automated place high on the list. c
The lack of regulator unification over the MAX’s grounding

and return to service is troubling for the industry.
JASON REDMOND/GETTY IMAGES
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
The Year of Sustainability Electric Propulsion Milestone

Graham Warwick
> GLOBAL CARBON-DIOXIDE POLICY TAKES EFFECT
WITH THE DEC. 10 FIRST FLIGHT OF A DE HAVILLAND
> CARBON OFFSETTING SCHEME STARTS IN 2020 Canada DHC-2 Beaver taken from Harbour Air’s com-
mercial seaplane fleet and modified to electric propulsion,
Lee Ann Shay Chicago 2019 ended with a milestone in the electrification of aircraft
T
to reduce their emissions (page 16).
he year 2020 could have been dubbed “the year of
sustainability”—even before 16-year-old Greta Thun- Next steps will include test flights of Ampaire’s Electric
berg was named Time magazine’s Person of the Year EEL, a Cessna 337 Skymaster modified to hybrid-electric
for her global climate change activism. propulsion, on a route flown by Hawaiian regional Mokulele
The reason: 2020 will be a pivotal year for the aviation Airlines. French startup VoltAero also is flying a modified
industry in many ways. Skymaster as a testbed for a small hybrid-electric regional
First, a global carbon-dioxide (CO2) policy for aircraft aircraft.
takes effect in 2020. This is part of the International Civil
U.S. startup Wright Electric plans to fly a 9-seat turbo-
Aviation Organization (ICAO) goal of capping aviation’s CO2
emissions beginning in 2020 and achieving carbon-neutral prop converted to hybrid-electric propulsion in 2020 and
growth. MagniX—whose 750-hp Magni500 motor powers Harbour
The policy, approved by ICAO in 2016, sets a CO2 emis- Air’s eBeaver—is working with AeroTEC to fly a Cessna
sions standard for new aircraft types launched after 2020. 208 Caravan converted to all-electric power in 2020.
The agreement, the first such standard for aircraft, also will The first small regional aircraft designed from the out-
be phased in for all existing types in production beginning in set around battery-powered all-electric propulsion—Israeli
2023, even if the model was introduced before 2020.
startup Eviation’s 11-seat Alice—is planned to fly in 2020
The CO2 standard focuses on cruise-flight performance
because that is when the most fuel is consumed and the at AeroTEC’s flight-test center in Moses Lake, Washing-
most CO2 is emitted, according to the Air Transport Action ton. Alice is powered by three MagniX or Rolls-Royce (for-
Group (ATAG). While aircraft and engine efficiency has con- merly Siemens) motors.
tinually improved over time—the International Air Trans- More milestones in the electrification of commercial avi-
port Association confirmed CO2 per passenger has dropped ation are planned over the next two years. Airbus’ E-Fan X,
50% since 1990—this standard provides a measure to mon- an Avro RJ with a 2-megawatt electric-propulsion system
itor maximum metric value (fuel burn per flight-kilometer).
replacing one of if its four turbofans, is planned to fly in
Second, in 2016 ICAO also adopted the Carbon Offsetting
Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia), which starts in 2021 to demonstrate hybrid-electric power for large re-
2020. Corsia is designed to ensure carbon-neutral growth gional jets.
for most international flights beginning in 2020 and to raise In 2022, United Technologies plans to fly a de Havilland
about $40 billion from airlines to offset their carbon emis- Canada Dash 8-100 with a 2-megawatt hybrid-electric
sions. Half of the world’s 20 largest airlines offer carbon system replacing one of its two turboprops, and the UK’s
Cranfield Aerospace Solutions plans to fly an island-hop-
The Progress of ping Britten-Norman Islander converted to hybrid-electric
Aircraft Electrification propulsion. c
Bleedless
Electrification of Pneumatic Systems
(+1.2 megawatt) All-Electric 2 megawatt
Boeing 787 1 megawatt

Next-Gen
Single-Aisle
Airbus A350 400 kW More Electric Drivers

Comac C919 240 kW • Improved fuel consumption
• Reduced maintenance costs
• Improved reliability
Airbus A320 200 kW Airbus A380 400 kW

Boeing 737 200 kW
Hydraulicless
(+600 kW)
Electrification of Hydraulic and Mechanical Systems
Source: Collins Aerospace
90 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 23, 2019-JANUARY 12, 2020

Source: United Technologies Advanced Projects
AviationWeek.com/AWST
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COMMERCIAL AVIATION
ing electric propulsion development (see sidebar page 90).

The percentage of all human-induced CO2
2% emissions that aviation produces
■ Sustainable aviation fuel development—yet sup-
ply-and-demand principles are keeping fuel costs higher
than they need to be (see sidebar below).
offsetting, and 41 airlines offer voluntary carbon-offsetting ■ Operational improvements to decrease fuel consumption.
options to passengers, according to ATAG. ■ Airport and infrastructure improvements to cut CO2
IATA argues Corsia is being hindered by some govern- emissions. c
ments—France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzer-
Aviation’s portion of all transport Commercialization of Sustainable

12% sources’ CO2 emissions Aviation Fuel Is Gaining Momentum
Graham Warwick
land—which are passing carbon taxes for airline passengers.
“Taxation aimed at stopping people from exercising their Beginning Jan. 1, fuel suppliers in Norway must blend
freedom to fly will make travel more expensive but do very 0.5% of biofuel into all jet fuel, the first sustainable avia-
little to reduce emissions,” says Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s tion fuel (SAF) mandate in the world. Norway’s goal is to
director general and CEO. increase this ratio to 30% by 2030. Sweden and Finland
Third, by mid-2020, expect the outcome of a cross-func- are expected to follow, and the Netherlands could take a
tional industry study outlining how the industry can meet similar path.
its 2050 goal of reducing aviation’s net CO2 emissions to After rapid technical progress in developing drop-in al-
ternative jet fuels that can be produced from renewable
80 Winglets retrofitted on aircraft
have saved 80 million tons of
feedstocks, the financial crisis of 2009 dramatically slowed
million CO2 since 2000 the eagerly anticipated commercialization of SAF as access
dried up to the capital required to scale up production.
Now the momentum is beginning to build again. More
half of their 2005 level. The group working on the analysis feedstock-to-fuel pathways are pending approval, but
includes experts from technology, fuel, airline operations, more important, several commercial-scale plants will
infrastructure, manufacturing, policy and research. ATAG
expects the process, known as Waypoint 2050, to be import- come on line globally over the next few years, and more
ant guidance for the airline industry. airlines are signing long-term offtake agreements despite
While the industry has implemented many environmen- SAF’s higher cost.
tally friendly concepts on its own—from washing engines In 2019, less than 7 million gal. of SAF was produced,
to save fuel, to eliminating hazardous chemicals, to adding according to the Air Transport Action Group, but construc-
winglets—the efforts cannot come quickly enough. Climate tion projects already underway will add 450 million gal.,
change activists such as Thunberg will continue putting and a further 350 million gal. of capacity is in the advanced
pressure on the industry, and passenger traffic is growing
faster than was expected even 10 years ago. planning stage. By 2025, SAF could account for 2% of
Expect to see more in the following areas in 2020: total aviation fuel supply—a drop in the ocean of jet fuel
■ Investment in more efficient aircraft and engines, includ- consumed by airlines, but a step in the right direction. c
Current Airports With Regular Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply
Bergen
Stockholm
Oslo
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Source: Air Transport Action Group
Registration Now Open!
aeroenginesusa.com/register
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JW MARRIOTT TURNBERRY
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DEVELOPING
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Supporters Official Publication

BUSINESS AVIATION
STIMULUS PACKAGE
> NEAR-TERM DELIVERIES RISE ON NEW MODELS
> LONG-TERM
PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHRINK

Gulfstream’s new G700
B
usiness aircraft manufacturers enter the new decade is the largest
purpose-designed
leaner and more focused but more dependent than ever
business jet
on introducing new products to sustain demand. Factor- to date.
ing in economic and political uncertainties around the
globe, most analysts forecast a stable market at best, with the only GULFSTREAM
prospects for growth coming from new models.

This is illustrated by 2019, with expected to be finalized early in 2020, production of the super-midsize Longi-
business jet shipments expected to leaving the Brazilian manufacturer fo- tude, deliveries of which began in Octo-
end the year up about 10% over 2018, cused on executive aircraft and defense. ber 2019 after final FAA certification.
boosted by the first deliveries of new Introduction of the midmarket Praetor Textron’s immediate priorities are
types. Further modest increases are 500/600—upgrades of the Legacy certification of the utility twin-turbo-
forecast for 2020-21 as production of 450/500—boosted backlog and deliv- prop Cessna SkyCourier, now expected
new models ramps up. But this more eries in 2019, but any further updates or to fly early in 2020, and the single-turbo-
positive near-term outlook does not replacements for its aircraft will come prop Cessna Denali, first flight of which
translate into long-term confidence in only after the split is complete. has also slipped into 2020 because of
market growth. Gulfstream is in transition between delays to its GE Catalyst engine. Pilatus
While Honeywell is forecasting de- generations of aircraft, shedding jobs will capitalize on the delay, with deliver-
liveries of 690 jets in 2019, up from 633 as it winds down output of its top-end ies of its upgraded PC-12 NGX to begin
in 2018 and increasing to 740 in 2020 G650, ramps up production of the new in the second quarter of 2020.
before flattening to 730 in 2021, this is G500/G600 large-cabin family and While the business aircraft mar-
against a continuing decline in project- begins flight-testing a new ultra-long- ket has skewed massively toward the
ed long-term demand for aircraft. The range flagship, the G700. Deliveries of heavy-metal (or high) end since the
company’s 10-year forecast for deliver- this stretched derivative of the G650, 2009 downturn, some analysts see the
ies has contracted from 9,200 in 2015 to with the Symmetry flight deck from the global rise in trade tensions reducing
7,600 for its latest 2020-29 projection. G500/G600, are due to begin in 2022. demand for long-range, large-cabin
While still described as a “healthy mar- Dassault is working to broaden its jets. Any shift to smaller aircraft would
ket,” this downward trend in demand product range, with the widebody benefit Embraer and Textron, which
has increased pressure on manufactur- Falcon 6X on track to fly in 2021. Re- have new midmarket models ready, and
ers to get their houses in order. placing the canceled Falcon 5X—a false could influence where Bombardier and
Bombardier is entering the final year start that cost four years—the 6X will Gulfstream move next.
of a five-year turnaround plan that has fit below the long-range Falcon 7X and Sustainability is another factor that
seen the Canadian manufacturer focus 8X when deliveries begin in 2022. The could influence product strategy. Busi-
on business aviation and divest its com- next Falcon—dubbed the 9X—is in ness aircraft may be a small contribu-
mercial aircraft interests. Ramp-up of preliminary design and expected to tor to aviation’s emissions, but they are
the ultra-long-range Global 7500 to 40 be a medium-to-long-range widebody a ripe target for the “flight-shaming”
a year by the end of 2020 will grow rev- optimized for low noise and emissions. movement. Increasing the availability
enues, and deliveries of the upgraded A second attempt to take Cessna’s of sustainable aviation fuel is the near-
Global 5500/6500 will also accelerate Citation brand upmarket into the term solution but, longer term, pressure
over the coming year. But any new air- large-cabin category ended in July to improve efficiency and reduce emis-
craft, perhaps to replace the large-cabin 2019 when Textron Aviation suspend- sions could shape industry thinking. c
Challenger 650, await completion of the ed development of the Hemisphere, cit-
turnaround by the end of 2020. ing continuing problems with Safran’s Gallery See a review in photographs
Embraer’s delayed commercial air- Silvercrest engine. This leaves the of key events in business aviation
craft joint venture with Boeing is now company focused for now on speeding in 2019: AviationWeek.com/BizAv2019
●
●
CIVIL AVIATION
Hover Hold Civil Rotorcraft Market Civil

Civil
Share,Rotorcraft
Rotorcraft Ma
2020-24Marke
UnitUnit Production
Production
> NEW MEDIUM HELOS NEAR CERTIFICATION Unit Production
All Others 2.5%2.5%
All Others 88 88
> INTEREST EMERGING IN HYBRID PROPULSION
A
KopterKopter 4% 145
4% 145
Tony Osborne London Robinson Helicopter R
Robinson Helicopter Co. Co.
W
ith a commercial helicopter market that remains 9.8%9.8%
350 350 1
stubbornly stagnant, it is perhaps no wonder the K
big helicopter OEMs are reluctant to make major
AirbusAirbus
investments in new conventional rotorcraft.
Helicopters
Helicopters
Instead, the focus appears to be on delivering long-run-
36.6%36.6%
ning programs and making incremental improvements.
Leonardo
Leonardo Total:
Total: 1,3041,304
Leonardo had already accepted that the AW609 tiltrotor
would not achieve FAA powered-lift certification by the 18.7%
18.7% 3,563
3,563
end of 2019, but the company is determined to deliver the 665 665
first aircraft by the end of 2020, more than 15 years after
its first flight.
Bell Bell
Less certain is the timeline for certification of Bell’s fly- 28.4%
28.4%
by-wire Model 525 Relentless super-medium helicopter. Source: Aviation Week Military Fleet &
MRO Forecast 2019. 1,0111,011
Progress has been slow since the loss of a prototype in
All numbers and percentages rounded.
2016, but in recent months pilots from several major oper-
ators have flown the aircraft and praised the flight control
Source:Source:
AviationAviation Week Military
Week Military Fleet &Fleet
MRO&Fore
MR
system, a hint that certification likely will be achieved early
in 2020. While Sikorsky has developed a list of options for new-
In March, Sikorsky lifted the veil on a modernized ver- build S-92Bs and retrofitted S-92A+s, only the level of mar-
sion of its S-92 heavy helicopter, incorporating the first ket interest will decide how many of the new capabilities
elements of the company’s Matrix automation technology. will be introduced.
Urban Renewal
its commitment to launch commercial
service in 2023 with small fleets of
certified vehicles flying a handful of
routes in these pilot cities.
> UBER ELEVATE PLANS TEST FLIGHTS OVER THREE CITIES IN 2020 NASA plans an initial event in 2020
for its Grand Challenge to improve
> NASA WILL BRING DEVELOPERS TOGETHER WITH REGULATORS
EHang 216s conducted a public
demonstration over downtown
Guangzhou in December.
UAM safety and accelerate scalabili-

ty through integrated demonstrations
that bring together vehicle develop-
ers and providers of airspace opera-
tions-management services. An initial
development test event is planned for
July-November, paving the way for the
first Grand Challenge in 2022.
And ensuring that transformative
EHANG
vertical flight will grab headlines in
Graham Warwick 2020, the GoFly Prize will stage its fi-
nal flyoff on Feb. 29, 2020, at Moffett
T
he rubber hits the road for Uber plans test flights for its El- Field in California. Supported by
urban air mobility (UAM) in evate aerial ride-sharing service in Boeing, Google and Pratt & Whit-
2020, with demonstrations and Dallas, Los Angeles and Melbourne, ney, the event is offering $2 million
challenges planned that will put the Australia, using experimental electric in prizes for building a safe, quiet,
technology through its first realistic vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) ultracompact, near-VTOL personal
operational tests. vehicles. The company is maintaining flying device.
that helps to boost useful load by 150 kg (330 lb.). This will
arket Share,
et Share, 2020-24
2020-24 become the standard production version once certification
is achieved, expected in the first quarter of 2020.
Value
Value of Production
of Production Russian Helicopters plans to fly its new VRT500 sin-
Value
Billions
Billions of2020
of
of U.S. Production
U.S. 2020 Dollars
Dollars gle-engine coaxial-rotor light helicopter in 2020, following
Billions of U.S. 2019 Dollars selection of the Pratt & Whitney PW207V turboshaft, and
All Others 3.7%3.7%
All Others $0.6 $0.6 is looking to complete development of its Kamov Ka-62
medium twin helicopter during 2020. Another new entrant
Robinson
Robinson Helicopter
Helicopter Co. Co. in the light single-turbine market, Swiss startup Kopter’s
1.8%1.8%
$0.3 $0.3 Honeywell HTS900-powered SH09, is aiming for certifi-
2.6%2.6%
KopterKopter $0.4 $0.4 Leonardo
Leonardo cation in 2020.
42.9%
42.9% Turkish Aerospace is continuing testing of its T625
$7.3 $7.3 Gokbey medium twin, and CEO Temel Kotil stated in De-
cember that it would fly in 2020 with a locally developed
Total:
Total: engine replacing the LHTEC T800s that powered the pro-
Bell Bell
18.2%18.2% $17$17 totype first flown in June 2019. The T625 and other new
medium twins are targeting a market dominated by the
$3.1 $3.1 billion
billion Leonardo AW139, which passed the 1,000-delivery mile-
stone in September 2019.
Many of the manufacturers, meanwhile, are studying
AirbusAirbus Helicopters
Helicopters
30.8%
the potential of hybrid-electric propulsion. Airbus plans to
30.8%
fly a single-turbine helicopter, probably an H130, equipped
$5.2 $5.2
with a backup electric motor during 2020, while Russian
Helicopters wants to install a hybrid power system into the
VRT500 in the early 2020s, potentially enabling it to get
RO Forecast
ecast 2019.
2019. All All numbers
numbers and percentages
and percentages rounded.
rounded.
around limitations imposed on flying single-engine aircraft
After a protracted development, Airbus is expected to over urban areas. c
begin deliveries of its H160 medium helicopter in 2020.
The company has also developed a version of its popular Gallery See a review in photographs of key events in the
H145 light twin-turbine helicopter with a five-blade rotor rotorcraft sector in 2019: AviationWeek.com/Rotors2019
The technology behind eVTOL and significant progress. Germany’s other enabling technologies. Bell is de-
UAM has made significant progress Volocopter in 2019 flew its proto- veloping eVTOL cargo and passenger
since NASA engineer Mark Moore, type two-seat eVTOL over Helsinki vehicles. Honeywell is investing heav-
now with Uber Elevate, produced Airport and downtown Singapore, ily in developing systems for eVTOL
the first concepts a decade ago. The demonstrated its VoloPort UAM and has partnered with Volocopter,
Vertical Flight Society lists more than terminal, unveiled its VoloCity pro- Vertical, Pipistrel and Jaunt Air Mo-
200 projects worldwide, but few have duction configuration and raised an bility. BAE Systems is investing in
any significant financial support. Even additional $55 million. UAM electrification.
those with backing from investors or Kitty Hawk passed the 1,000 test- UAM startups Joby, Karem, Lilium
manufacturers still face technical and flight mark with its Cora eVTOL in and Volocopter between them have
operational challenges. March, and in December unveiled a raised more than $350 million so far,
While full-scale prototypes of at UAM joint venture with Boeing, called and EHang is planning a $100 million
least 17 eVTOLs have so far flown, it Wisk, that will develop and operate the U.S. initial public offering. But the big
is not yet clear which vehicles will be two-seat self-piloted air taxi. Service money still lies ahead, with Lilium
available and capable of conducting is planned to begin in New Zealand, seeking $400-500 million in 2020 to
demonstration missions for Uber and where the prototypes are being tested. certify and industrialize its aircraft,
NASA in 2020. Other eV TOL vehicles being reports TechCrunch.
Only one manufacturer, China’s flight-tested in greater or lesser se- Automotive manufacturers have
EHang, has begun production, ship- crecy include Airbus’ four-seat duct- been significant investors in UAM,
ping initial batches of its self-piloted ed-rotor CityAirbus, Joby Aviation’s led by Daimler, Toyota and China’s
single- and two-passenger vehicles to four-seat tiltrotor S4 and the five-seat Geely. South Korea’s Hyundai has
customers in 2019 for demonstration tilt-fan Lilium Jet. The UK’s Vertical formed a UAM division, and Porsche
flights and operational trials while it Aerospace completed flights of a sec- has partnered with Boeing on premi-
works with regulators to gain certifi- ond full-scale prototype, the multiro- um personal eVTOL. But automak-
cation for the multicopter eVTOLs. tor Seraph, in 2019. ers face multi billion-dollar bills to
EHang is preparing for UAM demon- The UAM sector continues to at- electrify their road-vehicle product
stration flights in 2020 in its home tract investment. Airbus and Boeing lines, and whether they are willing to
city of Guangzhou. are funding internal R&D as well as in- invest heavily in UAM going forward
Other developers have shown vesting in developers of batteries and remains to be seen. c
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
DATA CENTER
Business Aircraft Market Share, 2020-24 Snapshot
Business Aircraft Costs, 2020-24 Some aircraft redefine their classes. For the
Unit Production Value of Production narrowbody airliner, it is the long-range ver-
Five-Year
BillionsUnit Production
of U.S. 2020 Dollars
sions of the Airbus A321neo, the XL and XLR.
All Others 7.1% $7.3 For the business jet, it is the ultra-long-range,
ultra-large-cabin Bombardier Global 7500.
Embraer 5.4% $5.5
A321neo Series
All Others Textron
20.5% Dassault 8.7% $9.0
Range (206 passengers)
17.8%
704 808 Business Aircraft Market Share, 2020-24 A320neo 3,500 nm
Gulfstream
rus Total: Unit Production Total: 39.6%
Value$40.6of Production
A321LR 4,000 nm
Five-Year Unit Production
1%
78 3,946
Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars
Gulfstream
Textron $102.5 Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars A321XLR 4,700 nm
11% $11.2
18.7% billion
All Others 7.1% $7.3 Orders: 3,200 (As of Nov. 30, 2019)
Embraer 738 >500 A321XLR orders/commitments
13.3% Embraer 5.4% $5.5
526 Bombardier Bombardier
17.6% 28.2% $28.9
All Others Textron
692
17.8% 20.5% Dassault 8.7% $9.0
704 808
Gulfstream
Source: Aviation Week 2019 Commercial Aviation Fleet and MRO Forecast. All numbers and percentages rounded.
Cirrus Total: Total: 39.6% $40.6
12.1%
478 3,946 Gulfstream
Textron $102.5
11% $11.2
18.7% billion
Embraer 738
13.3%
526 Bombardier Bombardier
17.6% 28.2% $28.9
692
Source: Aviation Week 2019 Commercial Aviation Fleet and MRO Forecast. All numbers and percentages rounded.
BUSINESS AIRCRAFT TO WATCH

MAX. MAX.
WING MAX. MAX. CABIN MAX. T/O LANDING OPERATING
MODEL/ SPAN LENGTH HEIGHT WIDTH WEIGHT WEIGHT POWERPLANT THRUST MAX. RANGE ALTITUDE
DESIGNATION (FT.) (FT.) (FT.) (IN.) (LB.) (LB.) (NO./TYPE) (LB.) MAX. SPEED (NM @SPEED) (FT.)
AERION
AS2 77 170 22 90 133,000 — 3 X GE Affinity — M 1.4 4,200 @ M 1.4 <60,000
5,400 @ M 0.95
BOMBARDIER AEROSPACE
Global 5500 94 96.8 25.5 95 92,500 78,600 R-R Pearl 15 15,125 ea. M 0.9 5,900 @ M0.85 51,000
CESSNA (TEXTRON AVIATION)
Citation 68.9 73.2 19.4 77 39,500 33,500 2 X Honeywell 7,600 ea. M 0.84 3,500 45,000
Longitude HTF7700L
DASSAULT
Falcon 6X 85.1 84.3 24.5 102 77,460 66,190 2 X P&WC 13,000- M 0.9 5,500 @ 51,000
PW812D 14,000 ea. M 0.8
EMBRAER
Praetor 600 70.5 68 21 82 42,860 37,480 2 X Honeywell 7,528 ea. M 0.83 3,900 @ 4,500
HTF7500E LRC
GULFSTREAM
2 X R-R
G700 103 109.8 25.4 98 107,600 83,500 18,250 ea. M 0.925 7,500 @ M 0.85 51,000
Pearl 700
Commercial Aircraft Market Share, 2020-24
Commercial Aircraft Costs, 2020-24
Unit Production Value of Production
Five-Year
Billions of Unit Production
U.S. 2020 Dollars
All Others 4.8% 553 All Others 1.2% $19.6
Comac 1.6% 180 Comac 0.6% $9.0
ATR 0.6% $9.2
ATR 3.3% 380
Embraer 1.4% $22.6
Embraer 4.2% 491
Airbus Boeing
Total: 43.2% Total: 51.7%
5,012Commercial Aircraft Market Share, 2020-24
11,589
Five-Year Unit Production $1,581 $817.1
Billions of U.S. 2020 Dollars Unit Production Airbus

44.5%
billion Value of Prod
Boeing Billions of U.S. 202
$703.7 All Others 1.2% $19.6
42.9% All Others 4.8% 553
Global Family 4,973 Comac 1.6% 180 Comac 0.6% $9.0
ATR 0.6% $9.2
Range (Mach 0.85) ATR 3.3% 380
Embraer 1.4% $22.6
Global 5500 5,900 nm Embraer 4.2% 491
6500 6,600 nm Source: Aviation Week 2019 Commercial Aviation Fleet and MRO Forecast. All numbers and percentages rounded.
7500 7,700 nm
Airbus
Price (2018*) Total: 43.2% Total:
Global 5500 $46 million 11,589
5,012
$1,581
6500 $56 million
Airbus
44.5%
billion
Boeing
$703.7
7500 $73 million 42.9%
4,973
*Completed aircraft Source: Aviation Week Military Fleet &
MRO Forecast 2019. All numbers and
percentages rounded.
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT TO WATCH Source: Aviation Week 2019 Commercial Aviation Fleet and MRO Forecast. All numbers and percentages roun
WING WING MAX. MAX. EMPTY GROSS

MODEL/ SPAN AREA LENGTH HEIGHT WEIGHT WEIGHT POWERPLANT MAX. CRUISE
DESIGNATION PAX (FT.) (SQ. FT.) (FT.) (FT.) (LB.) (LB.) (NO./TYPE) SPEED SPEED RANGE (NM)
AIRBUS
A220-300 130-160 115.1 1,209 127 37.7 — 149,000 2 X P&W PW1500G M 0.82 M 0.78 3,300
A321neo 185-236 117.4 1,313 146 38.6 — 206,100 2 X CFM Leap 1A M 0.82 M 0.78 3,700
213,800 (LR) or P&W PW1133G
A330-900neo 287-440 210 — 209 55.1 — 533,520 2 X Trent 7000 M 0.86 M 0.82 6,550
A350-1000 366-440 212.5 4,770 242.1 56 — 679,000 2 X R-R Trent XWB-97 M 0.89 M 0.89 7,950
BOEING
737 MAX 10 188-230 117.8 1,370 143.8 40.3 99,360 194,700 2 X CFM Leap 1B — — 3,215
777-9 400-425 235.4/ 5,025 251.8 64.5 362,000 775,000 2 X GE GE9X-105B — — 7,600
212.7
787-10 300-330 197 3,500 224 56 — 553,000 2 X GE GEnx-1B M 0.89 M 0.85 7,000
or R-R Trent 1000-Ten
COMAC
C919 156-172 117.5 1,390 127.6 39.2 92,815 159,835/ 2 X CFM Leap 1C — M 0.785 2,200/
170,400 3,000 (ER)
EMBRAER
E195-E2 120-146 115.2 1,110 136.2 35.8 — 135,580 2 X P&W PW1919G — — 2,600
IRKUT (UNITED AIRCRAFT CORP.)
MC-21-300 163-211 117.8 — 138.8 37.8 — 174,720 2 X Aviadvigatel PD-14 — — 3,300
or P&W PW1400G
MITSUBISHI AIRCRAFT
SpaceJet M100 84 91.3 — 113.2 33.9 — 92.594 2 X P&W PW1200G M 0.78 — 1,910
AIR TRANSPORT PROFILES
JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET
Steady On
> NORTH AMERICAN AIRLINE NET PROFITS WILL TOP $16 BILLION
Talks between United and its pilots
> UNITED’S PILOT TALKS ARE DRAWING INTEREST will set a precedent for other airlines,
> MAX RETURN WILL DRIVE CAPACITY SPIKE including American and Delta.
Sean Broderick Washington
T
he primary watch items for particularly in the domestic market, reins over to Scott Kirby in May, fo-
North American airlines in 2020 where MAX operators have been cus on the usual issues of pay, bene-
have a familiar ring: the Boeing canceling flights since the grounding fits and scope, or how much the airline
737 MAX’s status, new labor deals and last March. One result has been an in- can leverage regional-airline partner-
fuel prices that, while not rock-bottom, crease in load factors, even at carriers ships to grow its network. Pilots at
continue to act as a tailwind. that did not operate the model. “We American and Delta are due for new
Airlines were hit particularly hard operated over a 90% load factor, pret- contracts soon as well.
by the MAX grounding, both in terms ty much from April through August,” “Other airlines and investors are fo-
of aircraft removed from service and says Delta Air Lines Chief Financial cused on United’s pilot negotiations,
deferred deliveries. Boeing’s hope of Officer Paul Jacobson, noting both especially the scope and pay rates,”
winning initial approvals to reintro- peak-season demand and the MAX Cowen’s Helane Becker says.
duce MAXs in late 2019 faded away, as contributing factors. An emerging issue that major air-
seemingly leaving U.S. airlines a Despite a slowing economy, airlines line pilot agreements must tackle is
best-case scenario of beginning to get are bullish on revenue trends. how joint ventures play into scope
MAXs back into revenue service early “We’ve had a great fourth quarter of clauses. Delta’s pilots in December
in the second quarter of 2020. the year,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said called on the U.S. Transportation
The most affected carriers are Air during the carrier’s December inves- Department to ensure joint ventures
Canada, American Airlines, South- tor day. “That demand has carried benefit all parties.
west Airlines, United Airlines and us forward as we close out the year Delta pilots have grown increasingly
WestJet Airlines, which had a com- for the holidays. We see that revenue skeptical of the benefits of immunized
bined 109 MAXs grounded and were growth going into 2020. All signs are alliances following their experience
slated to see their MAX fleets more the U.S. consumer continues to do well.” in the years since the Delta-Virgin
than double by the end of 2019. Most The Conference Board research or- Atlantic joint venture was approved
now expect it will take into 2021 to re- ganization sees U.S. GDP growth dip- in 2012. Since then, Virgin’s total
introduce the grounded MAXs and see ping to 2% in 2020 from 2.3% in 2019. block hours between the U.S. and UK
Boeing catch up on deliveries. The Conference Board of Canada sees increased 33%, while Delta’s rose just
How quickly the MAXs come back GDP growth there falling below 2%, 2%, reports Delta’s Master Executive
will have a major influence on growth. slightly less than for 2019. Council (MEC), or pilot leadership.
Cowen & Co.’s mid-December 2019 Fuel costs are not expected to be an “Scope, including joint ventures,
projections saw U.S. airlines boosting issue. Cowen & Co. analysts see pric- matters to the Delta pilots,” says Capt.
available seat-miles, or capacity, 5.6% es dropping slightly in 2020, matching Ryan Schnitzler, chairman of ALPA’s
year-over-year in 2020, nearly doubling rates last seen in early 2019. Cowen’s Delta MEC. “It is the foundation of our
2019’s estimated 2.9% increase. The projected U.S. airline cost is $2.07 per contract, and we will continue to en-
story is similar in Canada, where a 7% gallon, while it predicts Canadian car- force and seek enhancements to our
capacity jump is expected in 2020 fol- riers will spend C$0.76 per liter. scope language.”
lowing 2019’s modest 1.7% rise. MAX On the labor front, United and its While labor talks rarely are free of
operations help explain most of these Air Line Pilots Association members’ acrimony, carriers in the region have
statistics, so if the fleet remains ground- leadership care more than a year into plenty of incentive to keep the peace.
ed deep into the first quarter the 2020 talks over a contract that became The International Air Transport
forecast will be revised downward. amendable in January 2019. Discus- Association (IATA) projects North
The region’s bigger-picture trends sions, which could be wrapped up American carriers will post a net prof-
are solid. Demand remains strong, before CEO Oscar Munoz hands the it of $16.5 billion in 2020. While down
slightly from 2019’s $16.9 billion and prioritizing passenger volume. Both MAX’s return. Its network strategy
the five-year average of $17.5 billion, it Allegiant Air and Spirit Airlines are will emphasize improving margins at
is still laudable—and more than all of expected to see their volumes grow its Dallas/Fort Worth and Charlotte,
the other regions’ projected combined in the double-digits, with Spirit ap- North Carolina, hubs.
total profits. proaching 20%. “In recent years, the company’s do-
“[In] 2020, unit revenue and prof- JetBlue Airways has dialed back mestic growth has favored regional
itability are expected to decline,” growth plans due to Airbus A321neo aircraft, but as they optimize their
IATA says. delivery delays. Planned 2020 capac- network they are looking to increase
Given the steady macro environ- ity growth is 5.4%, Cowen projections gauge at their two most important
ment, carriers can continue to focus show, or about 2 points below its origi- and most profitable airports,” Cow-
on leveraging their strengths and not nal plans. The New York-based carrier en explains.
scrambling to survive. All of them will will continue to focus on maximizing United will continue to emphasize
continue to pursue ancillary revenues, its New York John F. Kennedy Inter- its mid-continent hubs in Chicago,
Houston and Denver. The airline’s in-
troduction of Bombardier CRJ550s—
CRJ700s with premium seating and
a new type certificate—give it a reve-
nue-generation opportunity that aligns
with its hub flow-building strategy.
Southwest’s plans are the most
uncertain among the region’s large
operators because of its reliance on
the MAX for growth. The all-737 op-
erator expected to have 75 MAXs by
now, which would have accounted for
10% of its planned fleet. It was to start
2020 with 34 in storage and none in
service. If deliveries resume in the
first quarter, Southwest’s full-year ca-
pacity boost could approach 8%. The
good news: Its key Hawaiian market
Delta sees strong fourth-quarter revenue
relies not on the MAX but on a sub-
demand continuing into 2020. fleet of ETOPS-approved 737-800s.
Air Canada expects to take 26
JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET PHOTOS MAXs in 2020, giving it 50, but man-
with the full-service carriers pushing national Airport hub real estate and agement anticipates it will take about
the availability of “basic economy” to slots, while building up in Boston and a year to catch up after Transport
ward off low-cost operators and adding Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Canada’s approval. Also on the agen-
more “upper-end economy” seat op- Alaska Airlines expects to continue da: closing the Air Transat purchase
tions to protect against business trav- to benefit from synergies following its and deciding how to leverage the tour
elers going to the back of the aircraft if purchase of Virgin America. It also is operator’s assets.
travel budgets wobble. Low-cost oper- due to receive some MAXs; its first WestJet expects to welcome back
ators will push their menus of options, was slated to arrive in mid-2019. Alas- its 13 MAXs and will continue to
charging for everything from stowing a ka’s biggest opportunity is in product take Boeing 787s to expand its in-
backpack in an overhead bin to jumping segmentation. The airline, with about tercontinental long-haul services.
the airport checkpoint queue. half of its trips 5 hr. or longer, is rolling Private-equity firm Onex closed its
Projected mid-single-digit capacity out new premium and basic economy $3.8 billion purchase of the Calgary,
jumps in both the U.S. and Canada offerings as part of cabin refreshes. Alberta-based carrier on Dec. 11 and
will be inflated by the MAX’s return, American plans to add about 5% in plans to keep the airline’s growth
but some smaller carriers still are capacity, with 1.5 points linked to the plans in place. c
MAX groundings cost Southwest about 10% of its projected year-end 2019 fleet.
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Europe’s Airlines Get Ready better equipped to deal with a down-

turn because of the consolidation and
for a Tough 2020 transformation programs implement-
ed in the past few years, he adds.
> OVERCAPACITY IS PILING ON THE PRICING PRESSURE With the U.S.-China trade war af-
fecting the global economy, overcapac-
> ENVIRONMENTAL CREDENTIALS ARE INCREASINGLY UNDER SCRUTINY ity weighing on prices and the continu-
ing uncertainty over Brexit dampening
Helen Massy-Beresford Paris consumer demand, Europe’s airlines
are well aware of the challenges they
A
fter a year littered with airline al economy continues to slow toward a will face over the next 12 months.
failures and increasing environ- lower long-term trend, business senti- The collapse of a string of carri-
mental scrutiny added to pre- ment across major economies has be- ers—in September, UK leisure opera-
vailing headwinds, Europe’s air trans- come downbeat, with a growing concern tor Thomas Cook, France’s Aigle Azur
port industry is again preparing for a that a recession is only a shock away.” and XL Airways and Slovenian flag
rough ride in 2020, even if strategic Moody’s says it expects continued
cuts to capacity plans help profitability. deceleration for the U.S. and China
“Overall, we see a deterioration in in the next year. “In the UK, political
both the economic climate and the air- instability and persistent uncertainty
line industry,” says Diogenis Papiomy- over the timing and terms of Brexit
tis, global program director for com- have begun to harm the UK’s econ-
mercial aviation at Frost & Sullivan. omy,” the agency said. “In other
“Airlines have been profitable for a emerging markets, growth prospects
record 10 consecutive years [2010-19] will remain sluggish, even though the ALAN W
and will likely continue to be profitable pace of economic activity will improve, ILSON/W
IKIMED
IA
next year,” he says. “But the business with the exception of China.”
environment is affected by slower glob- The Organization for Economic Co-
al GDP growth, higher fuel prices and operation and Development’s latest carrier Adria Airways all went out of
the U.S.-China trade war.” outlook from November, which projects business—underlines issues that con-
Ratings agency Moody’s also was that the world economy will grow by a tinue to threaten the industry in 2020.
gloomy in a Nov. 14 report: “As the glob- decade low of 2.9% annually in 2020, “Economic growth, fuel prices and
and 3.0% in 2021, is worrying in a highly the trade war with China will remain
Thomas Cook had the highest profile cyclical industry, says Papiomytis. Air- [on] top of the risk agenda,” says
in a string of 2019 airline collapses. lines in Europe and North America are Papiomytis, who believes consolidation
INA FASSBENDER/GETTY IMAGES
EasyJet plans to offset all its emissions as
environmental pressure grows.
will intensify as a potential economic
downturn provides further incentives
for airlines to join forces.
“We are also seeing large airline
groups, which did not exist 10 years
ago, having both the appetite
and competitive pressure to
keep growing,” he adds. “Consolidators JOEPRIESAVIA
TION.NET
are easy to identify in both Europe and
North America. Primary targets will
be medium-size airlines that enjoy a and governments step up calls for a livery delays, capacity cuts and slower
distinct competitive advantage of val- Europe-wide aviation tax. growth are already on the agenda for
ue to consolidators.” EasyJet announced Nov. 19 it was off- European airlines, a development set
Air Europa, purchased by Inter- setting all its carbon dioxide emissions to go some way toward protecting their
national Airlines Group (IAG) in a with immediate effect in a move that margins next year even amid a chal-
should cost £25 million ($33 million) lenging operating environment.
in the 2019-20 financial year, following “The ‘Flood of Planes’ is temporari-
More sector consolidation is likely IAG’s pledge earlier in the month to ly slowing to a trickle. This will enable
after IAG’s Air Europa buy. reduce net emissions to zero by 2050. airlines to capture more of the pending
For the long term, EasyJet’s plan fuel benefit for themselves and likely
to develop electric aircraft in provide a less challenging revenue en-
partnership with Wright Elec- vironment,” Bernstein analyst Daniel
tric is already underway. In Roeska wrote in a Nov. 13 research
France, the government’s con- note. “With these positive signs, 2020
troversial plan to introduce an is set to be one of the most profitable
eco-tax on all flights departing the years in EU airlines despite slower
country’s airports, a move Air France macro developments.”
€1 billion ($1.1 billion) deal announced has said will cost it over €60 million a The region’s carriers are already
Nov. 4, offered its Latin American net- year, is set to come into force in 2020. scaling back their capacity plans, with
work, Papiomytis notes. European airlines will have to bear Air France targeting a 15% reduction of
He sees low-cost carriers benefiting increasing financial liabilities to meet its short-haul capacity in terms of avail-
more than large full-service carriers environmental regulations to cut able seat-kilometers (ASK) by the end
from consolidation, with their flexi- emissions, S&P Global Ratings said in of 2021. EasyJet said Nov. 19 that it is
ble business models that allow them a Nov. 21 report. “The additional cost expecting capacity growth for the year
to move fast to fill any void. “We are burden of emissions regulations will ending Sept. 30, 2020, to be at the low-
already seeing collaboration among be marginal over the short to medium er end of its historic guidance of 3-8%
low-cost carriers,” he says. “I see this term, relative to existing volatile fuel per year, while IAG said at its Nov. 8
becoming more of a trend, and why not expenses, aircraft lease payments, and capital markets day that it was revising
large acquisitions by them?” depreciation charges, any further cost downward its capacity planning for the
Hefty fuel bills remain a concern for pressure in the extremely competi- next three years, with plans to grow ca-
the region’s airlines. “Thinking about tive, highly cyclical, capital-intensive pacity by an average of 3.4% in the next
fuel prices is always important for air- European airline market will add to three years.
lines because fuel represents 20-30% of pressures and may gradually further That compares to the previous tar-
their cost base, depending on the type widen the difference between Europe’s get of a 7.4% compound annual growth
of airline,” says Callum Macpherson, few strongest airlines and the weaker rate (CAGR) and leads to IAG offering
Investec’s head of commodities. “As we majority,” says S&P Global Ratings 13.3% less capacity in 2022 than it had
know from recent trends, it can vary credit analyst Rachel Gerrish. originally planned. With all of the oper-
enormously.” She added that airlines would likely ating units slowing expansion, British
However, the good news, amid a achieve most of their net CO2 emis- Airways will still contribute the largest
grim outlook on many fronts, is that sions reductions via market-based share to growth in absolute terms.
Europe’s airlines have hedging poli- measures including the EU Emissions Roeska estimates European sum-
cies in place. “In Europe many airlines Trading Scheme, the global Corsia and mer capacity growth of around 4%
are hedged out through much of the operating and fleet efficiencies. year-over-year, partly tempered by
next year, and some have a proportion For Papiomytis, the industry needs the ongoing MAX groundings. “Over
of their hedging needs covered for to do more: “Environmental sustain- the past weeks, airlines have added
part of the next year after that,” says ability is a medium-term risk, but less capacity to next summer than
Macpherson. “What oil prices do over action is needed now. The industry they usually would at this point in the
the next 12 months won’t be a massive has yet to grasp the potential impact year. This gives us more confidence in
issue for airlines that are well-hedged.” of environmental activism in shaping our thesis that 2020 will see a tactical-
BACKGROUND:ISTOCK
Airlines are also facing growing public opinion and influencing political ly lower growth following the delays
pressure to find ways to limit their en- agendas in Europe and elsewhere.” in MAX (and Airbus), bankruptcies,
vironmental impact as the flygskam or With the continued grounding of the and general cautious view of macro,”
flight-shaming movement gains ground Boeing 737 MAX as well as Airbus de- Roeska added. c
Asia-Pacific Fleet Moves Continue AirAsia X is looking to new markets

with its Airbus A330-900 deliveries.
Despite Uncertain Outlook
itive signs emerged with a return to
> COOLING DEMAND RAISES FINANCIAL CONCERNS FOR AIRLINES net profit for the first nine months of
2019, but the true test will be whether
> NEW DELIVERIES WILL RENEW FLEETS, EXPAND ROUTE OPTIONS
this can be sustained.
Singapore Airlines is once again the
standout among Southeast Asian carri-
ers in terms of financial health and sta-
bility, and this is unlikely to change in
2020. The airline group
is still fine-tuning its
multiple-business-model approach
with the integration of SilkAir into the
parent airline and some routes be-
ing transferred to its Scoot LCC
subsidiary. The group has 159 wide-
bodies and narrowbodies on order, al-
though fleet plans have been disrupted
by delays to Boeing 737 MAX deliveries.
P. PIGEYRE/AIRBUS
Adrian Schofield Auckland NORTH ASIA

Japan’s two major carriers have been
T
he next 12 months could be a piv- holders are expressing frustration looking ahead to 2020 for some time,
otal period for the Asia-Pacific with their progress. as this is expected to be a big year
airline industry. There are in- This is certainly the case for Malay- for the country’s airline industry. The
creasing signs across this region that sia Airlines, which is still battling to Summer Olympics will be held in
demand and profitability are under turn around losses after a state bail- Tokyo, bringing an influx of visitors.
pressure, with factors such as global out and takeover in 2014. Government And the government is allowing an
economic uncertainty and international leaders have discussed their desire to increase in daily flights at key gate-
political disputes playing a role. sell a strategic stake in the carrier to way Tokyo Haneda Airport from late
Many of the full-service airlines are outside investors, but no such deal has March. Japan Airlines and All Nippon
initiating cost-cutting programs and emerged. The management of the air- Airways have kept growth relatively
reducing capacity plans to adjust to line has implemented a new recovery low over the past few years, but expan-
the changing market conditions. How- plan, and a major feature of this is sion is likely to pick up again in 2020 to
ever, fleet renewal will also continue forming close alliances with strong take advantage of these developments.
to advance rapidly in 2020. Several Asian carriers such as Japan Airlines The Haneda expansion results from
airlines are due to receive new-gen- and Singapore Airlines. 50 new slots created following air-
eration widebody and narrowbody Another airline deeply in the red space changes. Half of the slots have
types, whose longer aircraft ranges is Thai Airways. It presented a fleet been allocated to Japanese airlines
make more routes viable. plan to the Thai government this year, and the remainder to foreign carri-
Adding to the challenges for the including a proposal for much-needed ers. In some cases, the new slots will
full-service airlines is the continued aircraft orders for fleet renewal. How- be used to relocate flights from Tokyo
expansion of the region’s low-cost ever, the plan was sent back to the air- Narita Airport, but there will also be
carriers (LCC). Capacity growth and line to be revised. A new fleet strategy new services launched.
aircraft orders for the LCCs have not will likely be submitted in 2020. Japanese airlines are not immune
abated, and the threat is not just on Turmoil in the Hong Kong market to the issues facing the wider region,
short-haul regional routes. These has affected many Asia-Pacific air- however. JAL saw its net profit drop by
airlines are now increasingly turning lines, and none more so than Cathay about 30%, and ANA’s was down 23%
to widebody aircraft to extend their Pacific. The airline had been on track for the six months through Sept. 30,
network range, encroaching on more with a financial recovery initiative, but their fiscal first half. The carriers cit-
of the routes that have traditionally this progress is under threat due to ed weaker demand in certain market
been the domain of the legacy airlines. major demand declines in Hong Kong segments. ANA projects these trends
travel. Cathay has also replaced its se- to continue, causing it to cut its profit
SOUTHEAST ASIA nior leadership due to political fallout forecast for the full fiscal year. JAL has
The prospect of softening demand from the civil unrest. The new team not adjusted its profit forecast but is
and broader economic fragility are not has a host of obstacles to confront to undertaking a cost-reduction program
good news for those legacy flag carri- regain Cathay’s momentum. to offset lower revenue.
ers already in a vulnerable position. Garuda Indonesia has been another In the South Korean market, Korean
Some large Southeast Asian airlines of those airlines struggling finacially Air expects to begin taking delivery of
are struggling or restructuring, and in in recent years, resulting in order de- Airbus A321neos and Boeing 737 MAXs
a few cases even government stake- ferrals and a restructuring plan. Pos- in 2020, after significant delays to both
types set back its narrowbody replace- September, extending to long-haul ready announced Airbus A350-1000s
ment program. Additional Boeing 787 markets in the U.S. in 2021. as its preferred aircraft choice. Once
deliveries are due later in 2020. Deliv- In Japan, the addition of lon- the Project Sunrise decision is out
eries of these types will allow Korean ger-range aircraft will help drive the of the way, Qantas intends to turn
Air to introduce onboard Wi-Fi. next phase of LCC network growth. its attention to assessing other fleet
The future of Asiana Airlines ap- The JAL group is looking to launch a needs. It has signaled it will consider
pears brighter, as a prospective buy- long-haul LCC named Zipair to com- a narrowbody aircraft order in 2020,
er has emerged. The carrier’s largest plement its short-haul LCC joint ven- for the eventual replacement of its
stakeholder, Kumho Industrial, decid- ture, Jetstar Japan. Zipair is expected Boeing 737s. The carrier says both
ed to sell its share to alleviate financial to launch flights in May 2020 with an the A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX
concerns, and a consortium including initial fleet of two Boeing 787-8s. LCC families are in the mix, and it is in-
Hyundai Development Co. was select- Peach, a subsidiary of the ANA Group, terested in Boeing’s proposed new
ed as preferred bidder. intends to add A321LRs to its fleet in midmarket airplane (NMA). Qantas
A sharp drop in demand on 2020 to serve medium-haul routes. will also examine replacements for
Japan- South Korea routes has Asian LCCs continue to dominate its regional fleet of Boeing 717s and
been a headache, particularly for narrowbody orderbooks, with carri- Fokker 100s.
Korean-based airlines, which are more ers such as AirAsia, IndiGo, Lion Air Air New Zealand is also targeting
heavily exposed to this market than and VietJet accounting for hundreds new long-range routes and plans to
Japanese carriers. Korean Air and of orders each. India in particular has launch a flight from Auckand to New
other airlines have dramatically cut massive numbers of LCC deliveries York in October 2020. This would be
capacity on Japan routes. Political and
trade tensions are the main reason for
the fall in demand, so the airlines will be
hoping these disputes can be resolved.
ASIAN LCCs
The low-cost carrier sector generally
faces the same economic headwinds
as the full-service airlines. But as al-
ways, the LCCs intend to keep grow-
ing, and there are plenty of startups
in the pipeline. The trend of LCCs
looking to extend their reach with new
widebodies and longer-range narrow-
bodies is also continuing.
The AirAsia Group is significantly Japan Airlines aims to grow in 2020
boosting capacity in its short-haul despite softer profits.
LCCs. The six franchises were expect-
ed to increase their collective fleet by
20 aircraft to a total of 244 by the end coming—IndiGo has more than 630 its longest flight and the fifth-longest
of 2019, with another 37 narrowbodies narrowbodies on order following its in the world. At the same time, how-
to be added in 2020. latest deal in 2019, SpiceJet more than ever, the airline will cut its flight to
Sister company AirAsia X, which 150 and GoAir over 100. London, which it operates as a one-
operates widebodies, is introducing stop via Los Angeles.
A330neos that will allow it to fly longer AUSTRALASIA Cost reduction and capacity man-
routes than its current A330ceos. The Cooling demand and weaker financial agement will be priorities in 2020 for
Thai AirAsia X unit received its first performance are becoming a concern Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia,
two leased A330neos in August 2019, for airlines in Australasia, causing as they look to strengthen their finan-
and the parent Malaysian operation some of the major players there to cial performance. Both have launched
is due to start taking delivery of its implement cost-cutting programs. programs to identify cost savings, and
A330neos in 2020. The group has said However, this is not preventing air- have pared back their capacity plans.
the Neos will enable nonstop flights to lines from taking fleet-renewal steps Virgin is suspending some domestic
Europe, likely from Thailand first. and pushing range boundaries with and international routes.
The South Korean LCC market is ultra-long-haul routes. The pair have also deferred some
already fiercely competitive, and the Qantas has been putting a lot of scheduled aircraft deliveries. Air
expected launch of new entrants will time and effort into assessing its New Zealand has pushed back deliv-
raise the pressure further. The gov- proposed Project Sunrise nonstop ery of some of its A321neos and an
ernment has approved three LCCs to routes from Australia’s east coast A320neo, and Virgin has taken the
start in 2020. Air Premia is the most cities to London or New York. The more drastic step of delaying first
intriguing, as it is ordering Boeing airline is due to make a final decision deliveries of its 737 MAX aircraft by
787s to compete on routes from Seoul by March on whether to go ahead about 20 months to July 2021. Both
Incheon International Airport. It in- with these flights, which it would aim carriers will be watching closely in
tends to start with Asian flights from to start in early 2023. Qantas has al- case more action is required. c
Beijing Demands Cuts tryside. HNA Group’s Air Guilin is

based there.
in Subsidies The province and city said the
fund would be “used for the promo-
> OFFICIALS PAY FOR AIR SERVICES TO BOOST ECONOMIES tion of Guilin, striving to open inter-
> LOCAL GOVERNMENTS INVEST IN AIRLINES, TOO The second terminal of Guilin Liang-
jiang International Airport opened in
2018. Local governments want the
airport to be busier.
continental routes to Europe and the

Americas, starting services from
Guilin to countries in the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations and those
of northeast Asia, and increasing
flights to [Chinese] cities with inter-
STATE-OWNED ASSETS SUPERVISION AND ADMINISTRATION COMMISSION
national connections.”
Bradley Perrett Beijing They did not publish a schedule of
available subsidies, as other govern-
I
n the first half of 2019, Chinese billion) in subsidies, local aviation ments have. Airlines providing air
airlines banked subsidies equal to consultancy Cadas calculates. In the services desired by local officials typ-
86% of their profits. If authorities same period their profit was 9.71 bil- ically get more money for routes that
in Beijing get their way, that number lion yuan. are longer and those that connect to
will decline in 2020. This does not mean that they economically important cities.
The central government is de- would barely make profits without Such support is usually available
manding a reduction in subsidies to the subsidies, since many of the only for two or three years and dimin-
industries in general. The measure routes that receive government sup- ishes after the first year. In line with
will not affect airlines only, but com- port are loss-makers the airlines that, the Guangxi and Guilin govern-
mercial aviation is a sector that has would drop if they did not get help. ments referred to the allocated money
a notable dependence on public cash. But if those routes are dropped, then as a fund for fostering air routes—im-
Taxpayer money is given to foreign Chinese airlines presumably would plicitly, not for sustaining them.
as well as Chinese carriers. need less capacity. A flow of subsidies is not the only
Reduction and standardization of The official report of the state way in which local governments in
subsidies was one of several points council meeting did not mention a China get air connections they want;
made by Vice Premier Liu He at a specific degree by which subsidies they can also pour capital into an air-
state council (cabinet) meeting on are supposed to be reduced. And line, either to offset its losses or to
Nov. 12, according to an official ac- lower levels of government tend to build it up for greater things. This
count. This was associated with a resist orders from the top to a de- has happened repeatedly over the
mention of strengthening control of gree that often surprises foreigners. past two years for carriers owned by
public finances. The implication of One factor is that the pressure on Hainan Airlines, part of the strug-
the subjects being “mentioned” is that officials can be contradictory. In this gling HNA Group.
the state council is demanding action. case, officials are told to spend less In November, the Chongqing city
Central government departments and public money to boost business activ- government said it would invest in
the governments of provinces and ity—but they must consider that local Hainan Airlines’ low-cost subsidi-
cities are supposed to take note and economic growth is a strong factor in ary West Air. After the transaction,
adjust policies accordingly. their prospects for promotion. Chongqing will hold at least 70% of
Provinces and especially cities Only nine days after the state the shares, the city and Hainan Air-
frequently subsidize new business council issued its dema nd, the lines said.
activities—notably air services, Guangxi provincial and Guilin city Hainan Airlines, itself a part of the
which are seen as lifting economies governments said they had set aside HNA Group, will be the second-larg-
generally. These lower-level gov- 200 million yuan for a fund to sup- est shareholder. The staff that it has
ernments are also often keen to fi ll port air routes at Guilin in southern established at West Air will continue
underused airports. Cash might be China. They intend to use the money to operate the carrier, which is based
paid as an amount per fl ight or a bo- to build up Guilin Liangjiang Interna- in Chongqing, a southwestern city.
nus for opening routes, especially tional Airport as a hub. And, like so The municipality has been a mi-
those seen as valuable. The biggest many other lower-level governments nority shareholder in West Air, which,
subsidies are generally paid for in- in China, they aim to open intercon- an industry source says, is among
tercontinental services, sometimes tinental connections. HNA’s most profitable carriers. The
to foreign airlines. China Southern A irlines has number and value of West Air shares
In profit reports for the fi rst half a large presence at Guilin, a city to be transferred to Chongqing is not
of 2019, Chinese airlines said they long famous in China for the natu- disclosed. The airline’s registered
had received 8.38 billion yuan ($1.2 ral beauty of its surrounding coun- capital is 12.5 billion yuan. c
Big Gulf Carriers Continue Shift Barcelona-Mexico City, is a watch item

for competitors. The airline so far op-
to New Business Models erates daily services from Athens and
Milan to New York. Should the flight
> AIR ARABIA EXPANDS TO BUILD ABU DHABI BASE become profitable soon, it could en-
courage management to add more
> REGIONAL CONFLICTS BURDEN SHORT-HAUL CARRIERS fifth-freedom services. Such operations
Air Arabia is betting on the Airbus
A321XLR as it expands its network.
from Europe to the U.S. constituted a

major concern when the big three U.S.
legacy airlines launched their lobbying
campaign against Gulf carriers.
Qatar Airways’ 49% investment in
Air Italy has been used by Delta to
restart its lobbying, saying the Italian
FIXION/AIRBUS carrier can expand to the U.S. only
Jens Flottau Dubai with massive help from its Qatari
shareholder. Air Italy’s North Atlan-
S
ome time around the end of the last batch of Airbus A380s ordered tic market share is negligible, although
first quarter of 2020, Air Arabia when times were different. Structural it has plans to grow its long-haul ser-
Abu Dhabi will enter the Middle change to its fleet will happen only lat- vices in 2020.
East air transport market, operating er, with the arrival of its first Airbus The global grounding of the Boeing
its first flight from a new base in the A350s and Boeing 787s. 737 MAX also has affected Middle
United Arab Emirates. A first flight Etihad has long been contracting, East flights. Most affected is Dubai’s
from a new market happens almost having given up on aggressive global second airline, FlyDubai. The carri-
every day in global air transport, but expansion and now focusing more on er has 13 MAXs on the ground, and
this one will be about more than just supporting the diversification of Abu deliveries of many more are delayed
opening a new city-pair. Dhabi’s oil economy. The airline can- indefinitely, seriously crimping the
Air Arabia’s move into the Abu celed 42 of the 62 A350s it had on firm company’s growth plans. To fill some
Dhabi market, so far the fortress order and recently agreed with Boeing of the gaps, FlyDubai has entered into
of Etihad Airways, symbolizes how to take 20 fewer 787s than planned wet leases for some aircraft in early
much the regional focus has shifted, over the next five years. The carrier 2020.
change that will become even more is placing some of its newly delivered FlyDubai’s other main strategic
visible in 2020 as airlines abandon A350s into long-term storage. push, closer cooperation with Emirates,
old business models and assume new According to CAPA - Centre for Avi- is progressing more to plan. During the
ones. The launch of the Air Arabia ation data, Etihad has stored 23 aircraft next year, FlyDubai wants to shift more
joint venture with Etihad shows that and operates 109. Among the stored flights from its base to the other side
even in the Gulf, low-fare carriers are aircraft are four A350-1000s and 16 of Dubai International Airport to ease
now the ones driving growth rather A330s. The airline also has 101 aircraft connections with its sister company.
than the big three legacy airlines that on firm order including 25 777Xs that Flights with little or no connecting traf-
transformed intercontinental air trav- it is trying to cancel. Its recently intro- fic will remain at Terminal 2.
el with multibillion-dollar fleets. duced five-year strategy that targets a Another issue with some Middle
The development is no surprise return to group profitability by 2023 East carriers is their substantial expo-
to long-term observers. For years, assumes a fleet of no more than 120 sure to markets affected by the myriad
Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates aircraft, suggesting more deferrals conflicts from Libya to Syria and Iraq
have grown rapidly following similar and cancellations are planned. Etihad that make flying all but impossible.
business models and often opening posted a combined $4.7 billion net loss Resolution of some of the conflicts
the same destinations in tandem. Now for 2016-18. would open new business opportu-
they are splitting paths. Beyond failed business strategies, nities for Middle East and European
Qatar Airways, burdened by the fi- the Gulf carriers are affected by the airlines flying into some potentially
nancial impact of the blockade against slowdown in the global trade that is lucrative markets, but no short-term
its home country, nonetheless contin- fundamental to their model of con- improvement is likely.
ues to expand with a mandate from its necting long-haul to long-haul. Cur- There are some bright spots po-
government to do so at almost all cost. rency fluctuations also have affected litically, nonetheless. The recent re-
While the pace of growth has slowed, the airlines’ finances of late, and ex- laxation of Saudi Arabia’s strict visa
the carrier continues to take delivery change-rate volatility will continue to requirements for tourists already
of aircraft on order. be a major risk factor into 2020. has led to greater demand for flights
Emirates has made crucial de- While still a tiny fraction of its over- to the country and even on domestic
cisions to transform its fleet of the all business, Emirates’ introduction of routes, providing carriers like Flynas
future, taking delivery in 2020 of its another fifth-freedom service, this time or Flyadeal with a welcome boost. c
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Time To Invest financial drubbing in 2018, the Colombian carrier hired a new
management team led by CEO Anko Van Der Werff, restruc-
tured its debt and embarked on an ambitious transforma-
> AFFILIATIONS CHANGE AFTER DELTA’S LATAM DEAL tion plan involving the cutting of unprofitable routes, asset
divestitures and reducing capacity with aircraft sales and
> JOINT VENTURES, NEW PARTNERSHIPS TO EMERGE returns. On Dec. 9, the Colombian airline completed the last
of its debt restructuring agreements with its creditors, trig-
Mark Nensel Brasilia and Washington gering a $250 million loan, courtesy of shareholders United
and Kingsland International Group. It also announced an
T
he commercial aviation industry in the Latin Amer- additional $125 million in financing from several investors.
ica-Caribbean region heads into 2020 in a state of Pundits suggest American Airlines will possibly seek out
flux, especially as political tensions and economic other unattached South American airlines such as Brazil’s
convulsions for the myriad countries that make up the re- GOL, Chile’s Sky Airline or Aerolineas Argentinas. Execu-
gion intensify. Add in excessive taxation, wildly varying tives at Brazilian carrier Azul suggested at their investor
regulatory policies, largely inadequate infrastructure and day in mid-October that they were considering joining the
uneven coordination of air traffic control, and the outlook
ROB FINLAYSON
becomes somewhat disheartening. LATAM is expected to leave the Oneworld
But for the industry executives who gathered recently at alliance by Oct. 1, 2020.
the ALTA Airline Leaders Forum in Brasilia, an optimistic
mood prevailed once all the issues had been aired. And as
aviation and tourism ministers from the region’s South Amer-
ican countries pledged to meet regularly and compete less,
the focus turned instead to coordinating inter-regional travel
programs and promotions, building on the possibilities in a
region where passenger numbers are expected to double in
the next two decades at a 4.1% compound annual growth rate.
The Latin American-Caribbean aviation market saw 5.7%
growth in 2019 as GDP in the region expanded 1.2%. As a proposed United-Avianca-Copa joint venture. Instead, Azul
result, the potential for Latin American aviation growth is pivoted to a proposed transatlantic joint venture with TAP
Portugal on Nov. 7.
AVIANCA
“American [Airlines], traditionally, has been the leader in

Avianca has secured up to $375 million in loans. the region,” says Peter Cerda, regional vice president of the
Americas for the International Air Transport Association
(IATA). “American will look at what’s the best fit to supple-
ment their hubs and connectivity to the region.”
The Latin American-Caribbean region is clawing its way
back from a disappointing 2018, a year in which it collec-
tively posted a net loss per passenger of $2.78. For 2019, the
region is forecast to show a net loss of $1.32 per passenger,
according to data from IATA. The forecast figure for the
Latin American-Caribbean market is considerably lower
gaining the attention and investment of North American car- than the industry-wide $6.10 net profit forecast for 2020. By
riers. Delta Air Lines’ intent to acquire up to 20% of LATAM’s comparison, North American carriers, profit is forecast at
shares, a $1.9 billion investment, is the most significant ex- $16.81 per passenger, with European carriers at $5.21 and
ample. Emboldened by a decision in May from the Chilean Asia-Pacific carriers at $2.92.
Supreme Court, Delta plans to establish a joint business “Latin American carriers will end up with about a $400
agreement with the Chilean carrier. In May, the Chilean Su- million net loss, though 2019 was a better year than 2018’s
preme Court quashed a proposed joint business agreement nearly $800 million loss,” Cerda says. “[This is] very
between LATAM and American Airlines after deciding the different from our counterparts in North America and
combined carriers’ market power “would be hard to challenge Europe, in that their [profit] numbers are $16.9 billion
in a post-deal scenario.” Subsequently, LATAM will end its and $6.2 billion [respectively].”
long-standing codeshare with American Airlines by year-end. Among the major Latin American airlines, Copa has the
Its agreement with SkyTeam member Delta means LATAM strongest financial results at the nine-month point, showing
likely will leave the Oneworld alliance by Oct. 1, 2020. a $244 million net profit that nearly matches the same period
The joint venture between Star Alliance carriers United in 2018. Azul is posting an adjusted (for foreign currency fluc-
Airlines, Colombia’s Avianca and Panama’s Copa, originally tuation) net income of $196 million, down about 5% year-over-
announced in November 2018, is on hold until regulators year. Mexican LCC Volaris has a $69 million net profit for the
from the carriers’ three countries grant full approval. Copa period through Sept. 30, reversing a $10 million loss in the first
CEO Pedro Heilbron indicated the filing with regulators for three quarters of 2018. The remaining major Latin American
the venture would not likely happen until 2020, pushing back carriers are all reporting nine-month net losses: LATAM has
the collaboration until 2021 at the earliest. lost $37 million; GOL has a $62 million net loss; Aeromexico
The financial and operational status of Avianca are sig- is posting a deficit of $117 million; and Avianca, despite its
nificant factors in the United-Avianca-Copa linkup. After a turnaround efforts, reported losses of $516 million. c
Positivity Amid the Gloom Research specialist eMarketer esti-
mates the global e-commerce market
for Air Cargo will grow 20.7%, to $3.54 trillion, in
2019. And that figure could approach
> PROTECTIONIST POLICIES THREATEN CARGO SECTOR $5 trillion in 2021, even if growth rates
are set to fall below 20% in 2020.
> E-COMMERCE PROVIDES SOME CAUSE FOR CHEER For all-cargo operator Antonov’s
An-124 business, aerospace and ener-
Helen Massy-Beresford Paris gy should also keep driving demand,
Bingley says. “The continuing invest-
I
f 2019 was challenging for air cargo delivery expectations of an expanding ment in space will see multiple satel-
operators coming off two years of global middle class,” Gorman says. lites launched in 2020, meaning that,
growth, 2020 is likely to be charac- Demand can also rebound quickly, as always, we can rely on the aerospace
terized by a toxic mix of global macro- she adds, noting that after the 2008 sector to keep us busy,” he adds.
economic uncertainty and political and downturn, global air cargo demand Sustainability is set to be an im-
trade tensions. That suggests the year measured in FTKs regained its pre- portant issue in 2020. Initiatives to
ahead is not likely to provide much re- recession levels by early 2010. cut waste, increase efficiciency and
lief for the cargo industry.
ANTONOV AIRLINES
But operators are focusing on areas
of the business that do provide cause
for optimism, including fast-growing
e-commerce.
The International Air Transport
Association (IATA) said Dec. 4 that
demand measured in freight ton-kil-
ometers (FTK) dropped 3.5% year-
over-year in October. That dip, a weak
start to the traditional end-of-year
peak season for air cargo, marked
the 12th consecutive month of year-
over-year declines. Meanwhile, ca-
pacity, measured in available freight
ton-kilometers (AFTK), rose 2.2%
year-over-year—capacity growth
outstripped demand for the 18th con-
secutive month. Steven Polmans, chairman of The Antonov says aerospace and energy
“Demand is set to decline in 2019 International Air Cargo Association are driving demand.
overall—the weakest annual outcome (TIACA), also strikes a slightly more
since the global financial crisis. It has upbeat note despite near-term un- reduce the weight of packaging and
been a very tough year for the air car- certainties. He says that although the equipment are among the measures
go industry,” says Alexandre de Juniac, likes of Brexit, oil prices and the trade in the offing. Tackling emissions is also
IATA’s director general and CEO. war make forecasting difficult, there an important focus for air cargo oper-
Paul Bingley, commercial manager could be a light at the end of the tunnel ators, even more so as scrutiny over
for Antonov Airlines UK, expects “an- when it comes to economic outlook. the broader aviation industry’s contri-
other tough year” for the global car- “According to economists, 2020 bution to climate change intensifies.
go industry. “Continuing trade wars, should provide a more favorable busi- “We are particularly focused on
stagnant economies and global uncer- ness backdrop for the air transport providing lighter cargo handling sys-
tainties such as Brexit will continue to industry overall than 2019 has deliv- tems to reduce fuel consumption and
dictate the immediate future,” he says. ered—especially taking into account increase aircraft efficiency on the
Cheryl Gorman, vice president for the [International Monetary Fund] whole,” Gorman says.
Cargo, Hoist & Winch at Collins Aero- expectations that economic activity The company’s Freighter Common
space, says the company sees “some will lift in 2020,” Polmans says. Turntable—which combines stop,
pressure on demand in the near term, He expects current trends to contin- brake, steer and drive functions into
particularly in the larger routes such ue in the first and perhaps the second a single package and provides more
as Asia-North America.” quarter of the year. “But we should see than 200 lb. in weight savings at the
But like others in the industry, an improvement after,” Polmans adds. system level—is currently flying on
Gorman maintains a positive outlook in “To my mind, the protectionist reflex the Boeing 777 and 747.
the face of near-term difficulties. “The currently being seen all over the world TIACA launched its first sustain-
fundamentals for the air cargo indus- is a longer-term concern.” ability award this year. “I’m confi-
try remain strong, with cross-border For now, even in the context of the dent that collective awareness about
e-commerce continuing to gain mar- U.S.-China trade war, operators are sustainability in the broad sense will
ket share, and international express focusing their attention on the trade arise across the whole industry in
services growing to meet the rapid flows that are holding up. 2020,” Polmans says. c
MAINTENANCE, REPAIR & OVERHAUL
NORTH AMERICA
■ Over the next 10 years, the commercial
fleet in North America is expected to remain
25%
relatively constant, from nearly 9,385 aircraft
in 2020 to about 9,200 by 2029.
■ North America will generate the largest
MRO demand in 2020, with $23 billion in
MRO requirements.
■ More than 2,375 engine overhauls are
anticipated in North America in 2020.
2020
AFRICA
■ Over the next decade, the active
commercial fleet in Africa is expect-
ed to decrease from 1,560 aircraft
in 2020 to 1,365 aircraft by 2029,
for a compound annual growth rate
THE MRO OUTLOOK (CAGR) of -1.5%.
5%
■ Africa is projected to receive 70
BY REGION new commercial aircraft deliveries
in 2020.
■ The MRO demand for the African
Lee Ann Shay Chicago region is expected to decrease from
G
iven the problems with new aircraft and en- $3.6 billion in 2020 to $3.4 billion in
gine programs in 2019, the forecast for 2020
hinges partly on when those issues, includ-
ing that of the Boeing 737 MAX, are resolved. As
OEMs deal with technical problems, older aircraft
are continuing to fly, so the number of aircraft being
retired in 2020 is projected to be only 877, accord-
ing to the Aviation Week 2020 Commercial Fleet
& MRO Forecast. This means the strained supply
chain will mostly still be problematic for used ser-
viceable material for popular engine types such as
the CFM56 and V2500.
At the same time, 2020 should see a record num-
ber of deliveries if Boeing resumes handovers of the LATIN AMERICA
MAX early in the year. But expect Airbus A320neos ■ During the 10-year forecast period, the aircraft in-service fleet in Latin
to lead regardless—which means CFM Leap 1B en- America will grow from 2,440 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 4,025 aircraft by
gines will lead the engine deliveries. The forecast
2029, with a CAGR of 5.7%.
projects that 2,743 aircraft will enter service, almost
500 more than the following year, when more air- ■ MRO demand in Latin America is expected to increase from $5.3 billion
craft will retire as those deliveries take place. in 2020 to $8.2 billion in 2029, for a CAGR of 4.9%.
Looking at regional fleet growth rates over the ■ Engines (42%), components (28%) and line maintenance (20%) will com-
10-year forecast period, India leads with 10.6%, prise the largest shares of the MRO market in Latin America in 2020.
followed by the Middle East with 8.5% and Latin
America with 5.7%.
However, North America still leads MRO de-
mand in 2020, followed by Western Europe and the
Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and India). c
WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE
■ The top five aircraft family deliveries in ■ The active commercial fleet in Eastern Europe
Western Europe in 2020 are: the Boeing 737 is expected to increase from 2,075 aircraft in
2020 to nearly 2,770 aircraft by 2029, a CAGR of
5%
MAX 8 (29%), Airbus A320neo (21%), Airbus
A321neo (9%), Airbus A350-900 (8%) and 3.2% during the forecast period.
Boeing 787-9 (7%). ■ The Boeing 737 MAX 8 holds the largest share
24%
■ Western Europe by itself will rank second of new aircraft deliveries in Eastern Europe,
in MRO demand in 2020 compared to other with 36% of the total, followed by the Sukhoi
world regions, reaching $19 billion. Superjet and Airbus A321neo with 12% and 8%,
■ More than 1,460 engine overhauls are an- respectively.
ticipated in Western Europe in 2020. ■ The MRO demand for the Eastern Europe
region will grow from $5 billion in 2020 to $6
9% 9% billion in 2029, a CAGR of 1.8%.
CHINA
2% ■ Over the next 10 years, the Chinese
commercial fleet will grow from 4,315
3% INDIA
aircraft in 2020 to 5,970 aircraft by
2029, a CAGR of 3.7%.
■ Over the next 10 years, the Indian ■ China will see 415 new aircraft de-
commercial fleet is forecast to grow liveries in 2020.
from 800 aircraft in 2020 to nearly ■ The 10-year MRO demand for
1,975 aircraft by 2029, exhibiting the China is $109.6 billion in constant
highest regional CAGR, 10.6%. dollars.
■ The top three aircraft deliveries
in India for 2020 will be: Airbus
18%
A320neo (45%), ATR (18%) and
Boeing 737 MAX 8 (14%).
■ MRO demand for the Indian
region is expected to grow from
$2.0 billion in 2020 to $4.3 billion in
2029, a CAGR of 8.2%.
ASIA-PACIFIC
(excluding China and India)
■ Nearly 425 new commercial aircraft are
MIDDLE EAST expected to be delivered in the region in 2020.
■ Over the next 10 years, fleets in the Middle East are expected ■ MRO demand in the Asia-Pacific region is
to nearly double, growing from 1,760 aircraft in 2020 to 3,670 expected to grow from $18 billion in 2020 to
aircraft in 2029, a CAGR of 8.5%. $26.5 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 4.3%.
■ MRO demand in the Middle East is projected to double and ■ Engine maintenance will capture a 44%
could reach $16.5 billion by 2029. share of all MRO demand, followed by line
■ Engine MRO requirements will have the fastest growth in the maintenance (22%) and components (21%)
region, representing 46% of total spending. in 2020.
Source: Aviation Week Network
Comparing MRO Markets forecasts have in common is geography:

The top MRO generators for all three
will be North America, then Europe,
followed by the Asia-Pacific region.
> COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY MRO WILL DOMINATE DEMAND IN 2020 For business aviation, however, the
top three regions are North America,
> COMPOSITION OF MRO DEMAND VARIES WIDELY ACROSS SECTORS Europe and Latin America. Asia-Pacific
Lee Ann Shay Chicago MRO demand for this segment in 2020
will be less than half of that for Latin
T
he combined 2020 MRO market Expect field maintenance to gen- America.
for commercial, military, busi- erate 49% of all military MRO ex- For each of the forecasts, the aircraft
ness aviation and civil helicopters penditures, followed by components, expected to generate the most MRO
should be valued at $184.3 billion, ac- airframes and engines. demand in 2020 will be the Boeing 737-
cording to the Aviation Week Network This is very different than the mix 800 (commercial), Lockheed Martin
2020 Fleet & MRO Forecasts. The com- for commercial aircraft, where the F-35 (military), Eurocopter H125/H130
mercial and military MRO segments MRO forecast calls for engine main- (helicopter) and Bombardier GlobalEx-
alone represent $165.8 billion. However, tenance to generate 43% of MRO depress (business). c
the forecasts call for commercial air- mand, followed by line maintenance,
craft to generate 91.2 million flight hours components, modifications and air-
For more about Fleet & MRO
and military aircraft to generate only 9.9 frame maintenance.
million, so the cost per flight hour for One thing that the commercial, mili- Forecasts, go to:
military aircraft is much higher. tary and civil helicopter MRO demand https://pgs.aviationweek.com/Forecasts
AIRBUS
LOCKHEED MARTIN
WO ST 01/Wikimedia
2020 Forecasts: Comparing Aircraft Segments

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT BUSINESS AIRCRAFT CIVIL HELICOPTERS MILITARY AIRCRAFT
Fleet Size 33,887 31,746 21,744 40,728
Flight Hours 91.2 million 11.9 million 9.9 million 9.9 million
New Aircraft Production Values $316.0 billion $20.5 billion $3.2 billion Undetermined
MRO Demand $82.5 billion $12.2 billion $6.3 billion $83.3 billion
Source: Aviation Week 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecasts
have been trending below re-

cent historical averages, falling
to 1-2% of the in-service fleet,
thanks to a combination of sus-
tained strong demand for lift
and issues with new airframe
and engine programs that have
slowed deliveries. Aviation
Week sees commercial retire-
ments rising in each of the next
four years to approach 1,200 in
2023—more than twice the ex-
pected final 2019 figure.
The Boeing 737 MAX is the
most prominent example of
new-program issues affecting
fleet plans. As 2019 headed
into 2020, airlines were mak-
ing up for not having some 750
Airframe heavy-check demand will MAXs they had planned to be
grow more slowly than the overall market. operating. About 380 were in
service when a global ground-
LUFTHANSA TECHNIK
ing parked the fleet in mid-
Airframe Maintenance March, and the rest have been built
but not handed over, as Boeing halted
Work Will Moderate deliveries with the grounding.
Quantifying the MAX grounding’s
effect on aftermarket demand is chal-
> AIRFRAME WORK PROJECTED TO GROW 2.7% ANNUALLY lenging, but few dispute there has been
an uptick. Several carriers announced
> 737 MAX’S RETURN, FUEL PRICES WILL AFFECT NEAR-TERM DEMAND fleet changes linked to the MAX situ-
ation’s uncertainty, unveiling plans to
Sean Broderick keep operating older narrowbodies a
A
strong heavy maintenance venerable Boeing twin will
market is projected to mod- account for 1,750 airframe Top Five Airframe Heavy
erate in the coming years as events, while the baseline Maintenance Events, 2020
demand for major airframe checks A320 model will undergo AIRCRAFT GROUP TOTAL EVENTS
returns to a more historical norm, 1,363, the forecast shows. Boeing 737-800 1,750
but industry will be watching a few The 2020 forecast com-
key trends that could affect near-term bined with market intel- Airbus A320ceo 1,363
aircraft usage and, by extension, after- ligence suggests a decel- Airbus A321ceo 564
market activity. eration before the market Boeing 757 418
Aviation Week’s 2020 Commercial returns to a steady histor- Embraer 170/175 395
MRO forecast sees the airframe main- ical growth pattern. The
Source: Aviation Week 2020 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast
tenance market for the global, West- heavy airframe mainte-
ern-built fleet of 33,700 aircraft certi- nance market was partic-
fied for 10 or more seats increasing at ularly strong in 2019, lifted in part few years longer than expected. Ex-
an average compound annual growth by demand for freighter conver- amples with immediate ramifications
rate (CAGR) of 2.7% through 2029. The sions—particularly 737s and 767s. A include Southwest Airlines retaining
figure is slightly below the overall MRO Canaccord Genuity survey of about seven 737-700s slated to be parked in
market’s 2.9% projected average CAGR 40 aftermarket providers reported 2019, and American Airlines keeping
over the next decade, which is project- airframe heavy maintenance demand 10 757s that were to have been parked
ed to start with annual rates closer to running 8% above year-earlier levels by now.
the mid-single digits. through the first half of 2019, and pro- Fleet-planning headaches have not
The fleet in 2020 is expected to gen- jected a full-year increase of 9%—in been limited to the narrowbody seg-
erate nearly 10,600 airframe mainte- line with the MRO market as a whole. ment. Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 engine
nance events, defined as C or D checks Looking ahead, respondents foresee struggles—a series of durability issues
or the equivalent in phased inspections, growth slowing to 5% in 2020 for both that have affected all variants of the
and $4.9 billion in revenue. Not surpris- the airframe and total MRO markets. Boeing 787 powerplant—have forced
ingly, the two workhorse narrowbody A decline in heavy checks would go operators to turn to lessors or delay
models, the 737-800 and A320ceo, will hand-in-hand with upticks in both re- retirements while Rolls works to man-
generate the most 2020 activity. The tirements and deliveries. Retirements ufacture enough spare parts and line up
models—are bumped from schedules.

The good news for airlines is the
price of fuel is not expected to jump
soon. As of mid-December, prices had
dipped 40% since midyear to around
$70 per barrel for Brent crude. Produc-
tion in places such as Brazil, Norway
and the U.S. means the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries and its
allies cannot control prices as they once
did. Even a manufactured price spike
by the consortium would hit a ceiling
Optimization programs are helping
by making feasible more expensive pro-
operators such as Emirates lower duction options such as fracking.
costs on legacy aircraft types. All of this points to a slight decline
TEAMTIME/DEPOSIT PHOTOS in 2020 fuel costs for airlines in the
largest geographic market, analysts
MRO capacity to meet demand. Virgin changes in airframe maintenance de- from Cowen and Co. project. They see
Atlantic planned to park the rest of its mand, such as delaying the transition U.S. airlines paying $2.07 per gallon,
Airbus A340s last year as its first A350s of older airframes into the freight- down a penny year-over-year, and 16
were delivered. But issues with its er-conversion pipeline—a process that cents—or 7%—from 2018. Canadian
Trent-powered 787s led Virgin to keep includes a heavy maintenance visit. carriers will enjoy a similar run, pay-
at least one A340 in service into 2020. Two factors that could influence ing about U.S. $0.76 per liter in 2020,
Such issues rarely have a direct near-term heavy maintenance de- slightly down year-over-year.
influence on heavy airframe mainte- mand are fuel costs and retirement The coming year will not be a nor-
nance—Virgin did not put any of its rates. Normally, as fuel costs rise, mal one, however. The presumed re-
A340s through heavy checks to get fares increase to compensate. Demand turn of the MAX fleet will see the in-
them in shape for 2020, for instance. falls, and the most expensive aircraft dustry absorbing a significant amount
But the knock-on effect can lead to to operate—usually older, less efficient of capacity in a short time. The MAX’s
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return will be phased, with countries Retirements are projected to rise in
including China and India undertak- 2020 as the 737 MAX returns.
ing their own reviews and delaying
approvals until well into 2020, at least.
North America will be on the front
end, starting with the FAA. Canada is
expected to follow in short order.
Many MAXs were earmarked for
growth, so the fleet’s return will not
bring a one-for-one removal of older
aircraft. But many MAX operators
made contingency plans, keeping old-
er aircraft flying or leasing capacity
to help replace the lost seats. This has
helped boost aftermarket activity.
The MAX’s return will not necessar- NIGEL HOWARTH
ily mean a related decline in MRO op-
portunities, however. Retirements may older models. Under Boeing’s baseline els are helping to lower maintenance
jump, which means less in-service work assumptions, a 787-8 will require about burdens as well. Programs such as
but a boost for used-parts feedstocks. half as many heavy-check labor hours Boeing’s Optimized Maintenance Pro-
Getting MAXs back also could help free as a 767-300ER over comparable ex- gram (OMP) help operators modify
up a few older, prime narrowbodies, pected useful lives. Part of the savings maintenance intervals using their own
likely 737-800s, for cargo conversion. will be offset by labor-cost increases, data. In many cases, the results include
The long-term trend in airframe which could accelerate as the industry longer heavy-check intervals. Emirates,
maintenance calls for fewer events struggles to meet demand for techni- which operates about 10% of the world’s
over an aircraft’s useful life. The new- cians as it grows. 777s, is using OMP to extend C check
est designs integrate more composites While most major advances in heavy intervals on most of them to 18,000
and other materials that do not corrode maintenance efficiency are coming via flight hours or 1,200 days—increases of
and offer more general durability than new designs and materials, older mod- 20% compared to the 2006 program. c
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Engine MRO in 2020 fleet in March. Boeing said it intends

to have the aircraft back in service
during 2020, but the groundings have
hit some OEMs hard.
> ENGINE SEGMENT’S AFTERMARKET SHARE STANDS AT 42% While some airlines have since
placed large orders for the MAX
> NORTH AMERICA WILL SEE HIGHEST ENGINE MRO SPENDING IN 2020
(such as British Airways’ for 200
aircraft), others have chosen to look
James Pozzi London elsewhere. These include low-cost
carrier Flyadeal of Saudi Arabia,
T
he CFM56 and V2500 families capacity will remain tight for the which canceled its order for up to 50
will account for around one- next 2-3 years at least. The availabili- of the Leap-powered aircraft in sum-
third of commercial engine ty of spare engines and related mate- mer 2019. The Leap 1A variant for
aftermarket spending in 2020, with rials likely also will be scarce for the the A320neo, which entered service
MRO demand boosted as mature next few years, until relief comes in in 2015, will not see any significant
models are kept in service longer the form of retirements hitting the MRO spending until 2024.
owing to the slower pace of their market and supplying more used Aviation Week predicts the wide-
successors entering service. materials. body engine segment will account for
This slowdown is the result of tech- These retirements are expected to $16.5 billion of the market in 2020.
nical issues related to CFM Interna- pick up starting in 2023 for CFM56 The segment, dominated by GE Avi-
tional’s Leap, the CFM56’s successor, engines, when for the first time more ation and Rolls-Royce, which hold
and the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G than 1,000 will be retired during that 50% and 33% shares of the market,
geared turbofan (GTF) over the past year. By the end of the decade in respectively, will account for an es-
few years. In a commercial engine 2029, an estimated 8,858 CFM56 en- timated 2,257 maintenance events
throughout the year. Of GE Aviation’s
MTU MAINTENANCE
market share, 30% will emanate from

the CF6-80C2, used on several Boe-
ing and Airbus widebody aircraft in-
cluding the A330, 747 and 767.
The V2500, with the CFM56, will
account for a significant proportion
of engine MRO spending in 2020.
Powering the 787, a popular air-

craft option for airlines looking to
reduce fuel consumption costs, GE
Aviation’s GEnx engine will see the
highest delivery volumes, with 248
engines set for 2020. This will be
followed by Rolls-Royce’s Trent
XWB, the exclusive option for the
A350, which will see 240 deliveries
in 2020, according to Aviation Week
segment valued at $34.7 billion for gines will leave service. Retirements data. GE’s CF6-80 model, powering
the year by Aviation Week’s latest of the V2500 also will increase grad- aircraft including the A330, 757 and
Fleet & MRO Forecast, the CFM56 ually. Numbering just 98 in 2020, over 767, will have the highest volume of
and V2500 are forecast to generate a 10-year period approximately 2,178 retirements over 10 years, number-
$12.9 billion in combined spending V2500s will be phased out. ing 1,649 units in 2020-29.
over a 12-month period. While the arrival of the new nar- In the turboprop segment, which
The CFM56 family is projected to rowbody engines has been sluggish, accounts for just 5% of the glob-
have approximately 23,058 units in the influx of the Leap and GTF is al commercial fleet, aftermarket
service this year, with the -7B vari- nevertheless still expected to pick spending is centered on just a hand-
ant powering the Boeing 737NG the up. According to Aviation Week data, ful of engine types. Pratt & Whitney
most prominent, accounting for more around 2,600 deliveries of the Leap Canada will hold more than 80% of
than half of the CFM56 fleet. Mean- are expected in 2020. However, this the market in 2020, with much of
while, the V2500 engine found on the figure could be dependent on the this related to the PW100 engine,
Airbus A320 aircraft family will have fortunes of the -1B variant, the en- primarily found on the ATR42 and
6,000 units in service. gine option for the Boeing 737 MAX 72. With no new entrants expected
While the surplus of work will be program. in the turboprop segment, the OEM’s
good news for repair specialists, the In 2019, the aircraft was dogged by market dominance will grow over the
longevity of the CFM56 and V2500 problems unrelated to its Leap en- next decade—standing at around
also could ensure that MRO market gines, leading to the grounding of the 92% by 2029. c
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ERIC PIERMONT/GETTY IMAGES
AEROLUS ENGINE SERVICES
GOL
1 | M&A: Hot, Hot, Hot 5 | Parts Shortages 7 | Latin Expansion
Mergers and acquisitions will continue Next-gen engines such as the Investment is underway as airlines
to be hot from all sides, including OEMs PW1000G-JM will need maintenance gain partners and expand in-house
and other non-MROs buying, as well on top of scheduled upgrades, and maintenance services. For example,
as private equity buying and selling. older aircraft are staying online due Brazil’s GOL launched a new business
However, expect few large acquisitions to delivery delays, so the shortage of unit in late November, GOL Aerotech.
because the easy pickings are gone, used serviceable material for popular Azul Airlines will open a hangar in 2020
and valuations of any remaining sizable engine types—especially CFM56s, to bring maintenance in-house. Delta
acquisition targets are high. V2500s and CF6s—will be even plans to invest in LATAM, while United
worse in 2020. This will drive prices is doing the same with Avianca. Pratt
INVERT ROBOTICS
higher and also lead to more repair & Whitney opened an engine overhaul
development. center in Belo Horizonte on Dec. 11.
TONEFOTOGRAFIA/GETTY IMAGES
TOP 10 MRO
2 | Robotics
PREDICTIONS
Robotics are going to start truly taking FOR
2020
off within MRO for improving safety
and accuracy with tasks such as
aircraft inspections, paint removal 8 | Big Data
and nondestructive testing. To really accelerate big data
analytics, companies need to start
DONECLE
sharing more positive outcomes to

demonstrate the value of the field
What to watch for and show why companies should
consider sharing data.
in the civil aviation
FAA
aftermarket in 2020
3 | Drone Inspections
Drone trials will continue to proliferate
for aircraft inspections. Could 2020
Lee Ann Shay Chicago
be the year regulators approve
drone inspections as a stand-alone
procedure? 9 | Slow Dance
Expect longer approval times for
THAI AIRWAYS
BOEING
anything a regulator touches and a

potential logjam for FAA certification
projects if ODA is scaled back.
YAYA ERNST/GETTY IMAGES
4 | MAX Impact
With a prolonged 737 MAX grounding
and growing pressure on capacity, there
will be an impact on the aftermarket 6 | Southeast Asia
for the CFM56-3/7B on Boeing 737 MRO facility growth in Southeast Asia 10 | 'Let’s Just Get Along'
Classics/NGs—and possibly even will continue, with new or expanded Strife over foreign repair station
the V2500/CFM56-5 on Airbus facilities in places like Batam, approvals could erupt if the FAA
A320s—as operators continue to defer Indonesia; U-Tapao, Thailand; and carries out the U.S. Congress’
maintenance in the short-to-mid-term. Kuala Lumpur. mandate for revamped oversight.
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20%
28%
VPS
Directors
GOGO
means Inmarsat’s IFC offering will be
“future-proofed for the next two de-
cades,” says Weidemeyer.
His suggestion to airlines weighing
satellite-based IFC options is to ask
two questions:
Airlines A Gogo 2KU antenna uses a symmet-
Face Tough rical, phased-array design that has
significantly fewer moving parts.
Choices for ■ Who has control of the network and
Inflight can offer a global, end-to-end solution?
■ Are they building for the future
Connectivity and ensuring equipment installed to-
day will work with evolving satellite
technology?
“Airlines want [IFC to do] what it
says on the tin, and they want to know
if it’s going to last a long time. With
> SEAMLESS AIR ALLIANCE SEEKS EASY PASSENGER CONNECTIVITY our network, whatever you put on [the
aircraft] today will work for the next
> STANDARDIZED COMPONENTS EYED TO HELP LOWER COSTS decade-plus,” says Weidemeyer.
Inmarsat’s decision to invest in
Kerry Reals London payloads that add Arctic coverage to
its GX network suggests connectivity
D
ecisions on which satellite-based costs. Next, standards reduce the over the North Pole is becoming an
inflight connectivity (IFC) tech- cost of spare-parts programs and important factor for airlines when
nology and providers to use are the overhead of training maintenance mulling IFC options. Indeed, Emir-
becoming more complex for airlines. staff on the operation and repair of ates said in July the addition of two
Not only do carriers still face the disparate systems.” elliptical-orbit satellites by Inmarsat
Ku -versus-Ka -band dilemma, their The alliance’s “ultimate goal,” says means passengers on its U.S.-bound
choice now is between installing a Mandala, is to make every component flights, which often travel over the
system based on geostationary (GEO) in the system interchangeable and al- polar region, would no longer “find
satellite technology available today, or low for true plug and play of equipment. themselves without connectivity for
taking a chance and waiting several UK satellite company Inmarsat up to 4 hr.”
years until new constellations of low- joined the SAA because “it was the Newcomer OneWeb, which plans to
Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites are ready right thing to do to make sure we’re offer a Ku-band inflight broadband ser-
to provide airborne Wi-Fi services. part of shaping what the industry vice through a constellation of 650 LEO
The good news is that regardless looks like” going forward, says Kurt satellites beginning in the first half of
of what they decide, equipment and Weidemeyer, vice president for strat- 2022, will provide “polar coverage from
maintenance costs are likely to come egy and business development at day one,” says Ben Griffin, the startup’s
down as standardization takes hold Inmarsat Aviation. On modularity, commercial aviation vice president.
and plug-and-play components be- Weidemeyer says it “drops the price OneWeb is pushing full global cov-
come more commonplace. for everyone if everyone is working to erage and low latency as its key sell-
A growing number of satellite com- the same standard.” ing points to airlines, and it is hoping
panies, IFC providers, airlines and Inmarsat, which provides Ka-band this will convince them to bet on an
equipment manufacturers have joined inflight broadband through its GX unproven network.
the Seamless Air Alliance (SAA) in its Aviation system and a hybrid air-to- Latency—the amount of time it
quest to enable passengers to connect ground and satellite-based system takes to send and receive data to and
to the internet on their personal devic- known as the European Aviation from a satellite—is “under 100 milli-
es as easily in the air as on the ground. Network, announced plans in 2019 to sec.” with LEOs, versus 700-800 mil-
Part of that quest involves finding a launch a number of additional GEO lisec. with GEOs, says Griffin.
way of standardizing components, satellites and GX payloads to support “Four or five years ago, it was all
which the alliance believes will result its Global Xpress network. about Ku versus Ka, and airlines were
in greater interchangeability and lower The launch of Inmarsat’s GX7, 8 and being educated in things they didn’t
installation and maintenance costs. 9 satellites, manufactuerd by Airbus want to be educated in,” he notes. To
“There is a huge benefit of stan- Defense and Space, in the first half avoid further confusion when present-
dardizing this equipment for airlines,” of 2023, together with GX payloads ing its “step-change” LEO solution,
says SAA CEO Jack Mandala. “To (GX10A and 10B) on two additional OneWeb prefers to “leave the science
begin with, there is an industry-lev- satellites operated by Space Norway to one side” and talk instead about
el economy of scale that comes from and placed into highly elliptical orbits what the technology can deliver.
standardization to reduce equipment to enable coverage across the Arctic, OneWeb is a founding member of the
SAA and is keen to see a greater degree
of modularity across IFC components.
“There’s a whole raft of IFC options
out there for selection,” says Griffin,
adding that “standardization of equip-
ment is fairly key.”
IFC provider Gogo is another pro-
ponent of standardization. “The goal
is to standardize form, fit and elec- Oneweb plans to offer a Ku-band inflight
trical interfaces of [line replaceable broadband service through a constellation
units] intended for line-fit installation of 650 LEO satellites beginning in the first
in commercial aircraft,” says John half of 2022.
Wade, president of the company’s
commercial aviation division. “Mod- ONEWEB
ular systems work well, provided the
candidate airframe can partition func- antenna to widebody aircraft opera- Gogo falls into the latter camp,
tions while allowing systems to inter- tors that do not want to wait another and Wade explains why: “By leasing
act effectively.” three years for its Ka-band service satellite capacity, Gogo can quick-
But Viasat, which is building a to become global. Buchman says he ly leverage the advances in satellite
global K a -band GEO network that expects the hybrid service to launch technology once mature enough for
will culminate in the launch of a third “within a quarter or two,” with an “an- commercial use. Our open satellite
satellite constellation—ViaSat-3, due nounceable customer.” ecosystem allows us to add capacity
to be fully operational by the second Another choice facing airlines is on demand, strengthen our network
half of 2022—appears unconvinced whether to opt for a connectivity pro- and maintain redundancy. Being
of the merits of joining the SAA, says vider that owns and operates the sat- locked into a closed system can leave
Don Buchman, vice president for com- ellites, such as Inmarsat or Viasat, or airlines tied to older and more expen-
mercial mobility. one that leases satellite capacity and sive satellites for many years, even as
Viasat plans to offer a hybrid Ku/Ka is more technology-agnostic. new ones are launched.” c
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2020
MRO Workforce: Help Wanted

Maintenance workforce shortage will
be more pronounced in the 2020s
Lindsay Bjerregaard Regional Challenges
U.S.
Oliver Wyman projects that a gap between supply of and
demand for mechanics will develop by 2022 and reach a
Global Technician Demand peak of 9% by 2027.
According to FAA U.S. Civil Airmen statistics, in 2018
According to Boeing’s Pilot & Technician only 2.4% of mechanics and 5.2% of repair technicians
Outlook for 2019-38, there will be a need were women.
for 769,000 new maintenance technicians The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says the median age
globally over the next 20 years. of aviation mechanics is 51 years—nine years older than
the median age of the broader national workforce.
Technician Demand ATEC projects that the mechanic population will
by Region decrease 5% in the next 15 years.
Asia-Pacific 266,000 Asia

China 124,000 The workforce crunch is expected to be felt first in Asia,
Southeast Asia 56,000 where the bulk of aircraft fleet growth is set to occur.
According to the Aviation Week Network’s 2020 Com-
South Asia 36,000 mercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, the Asia-Pacific region (in-
Northeast Asia 22,000 cluding China) will account for 31% of the world’s MRO
Oceania 11,000 share over the next decade and will continue to grow.
North America 193,000
Europe
Europe 137,000
The Aviation Week Network’s 2020 Commercial Fleet
Middle East 69,000 & MRO Forecast projects that Western Europe’s mature
Latin America 52,000 fleets will generate 20% of estimated MRO demand—
Africa 27,000 nearly matching that of North America, which will lead
Russia/Central Asia 25,000 with 21%.
Airbus’ Global Workforce Forecast for 2019-29 projects
that Europe will be badly affected by increasing retire-
Technician Demand ments of baby boomers.
by Aviation Segment Europe’s population is expected to decline 4% between
Commercial Aviation 632,000 2013-50, a continuation of a long-term trend.
Business Aviation 93,000
Rotorcraft 44,000
Worldwide Challenges
Retirements
Airbus’ Global Workforce Forecast estimates that people aged
60+ will make up 21% of the population by 2050.
Airbus expects 50,000 employees to leave the company in the
next decade and 80% of its staff in 2027 to be composed of
generations Y and Z.
A TEC’s 2018 Pipeline Report states that 30% of the me-
chanic population in the U.S. is 60 or older.
Wages and Benefits

According to an Oliver Wyman survey, 51% of respondents
identified aviation mechanics’ current wages and benefits as an
obstacle to recruitment.
Mismatch Between The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in 2018, the
Workforce Supply mean hourly wage for aircraft mechanics and technicians was
and Demand $31.36 and the mean annual salary was $65,230.
Airbus projects that the following Technology Advancement

countries will have the largest Airbus estimates that the worldwide annual supply of industri-
surpluses and deficits in MRO talent al robots grew at an average of 13% per year between 2015-19.
A recent survey by PwC found that 37% of workers were
over the next decade.
worried about potentially losing their jobs to automation.
An Oxford Economics study estimates that by 2030, millions
Top 10 Countries With
of jobs will have been lost to robots. On average, each industrial
Greatest Talent Surplus
robot is replacing 1.6 human workers.
1 India Boeing projects that advances in airplane technology will
2 Indonesia drive demand for a new set of skills.
3 Colombia Training
4 South Africa ATEC estimates that 30% of students who finish an aviation
5 Brazil maintenance training course eventually accept employment
6 Morocco in another industry.
7 Czech Republic ATEC members report that the largest barrier to recruiting,
8 Egypt accepting, retaining or graduating technical program students
is insufficient soft skills such as communication, strong work
9 Qatar
ethic and time management.
10 Peru As new technologies demand different skills, Part 147 training
schools continue to lag behind in their curriculum—while costs
Top 10 Countries With to obtain training continue to rise. c
Greatest Talent Deficit
1 Taiwan
2 Japan
3 Poland
4 Italy
5 Chile
6 Greece
7 South Korea
8 Canada
9 U.S.
10 UK
ILLUSTRATIONS: ANTONINA KAUSHAN/GETTYIMAGES
MROLinks
Top 10 Cool New MRO Products

Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago
around and sticks to curved surfaces while
1. Robotic Livery Printing 1 keeping tools in place with its high-grip
material. In addition to protecting surfaces
Company: Xyrec from scratching or damage, Grypmat is
Product: Automated Paint Robot nonmagnetic—so it will not collect metal
Specifications: Developed in collabora- shavings. Grypmat says the product can
tion with Airbus and Southwest Research increase maintenance efficiency by up to
Institute, Xyrec’s Automated Paint Robot 33% while reducing tool loss and improv-
can print any aircraft livery design on an ing organization. Grypmat comes in a vari-
aircraft fuselage more efficiently than traditional ety of sizes for different aircraft types, and the
masking and spray guns. In addition to print- company says it is currently used at a number
ing the livery design, the robot can sand the of regional and commercial airlines.
fuselage, clean it after paint has been stripped, marketplace.aviationweek.com/
spray primer and clear coatings, and dry clear product/never-lose-your-tools-again
coatings in just 2 hr. Xyrec says the robot will
be available commercially in 2020 with a direct
print feature coming in 2021.
2 4. Mapping Entire Aircraft Bays
marketplace.aviationweek.com/product/ Company: 8tree

completely-automated-paint-solution Product: DentCHECK pano inspection
system
2. AI-Based Voice Guidance Specifications: Building on its original
DentCHECK 3D damage-mapping tool,
Company: Whispr 8tree has released DentCHECK pano,
Product: Voice guidance system which can inspect entire aircraft bays in
Specifications: Whispr’s hands-free voice less than 10 min. The product produces
guidance platform is powered by artificial a digital collage that can be archived for
intelligence and natural language process- comparison during future maintenance
ing, which converts text to speech and and 8tree says it has produced time-
vice versa, to turn work instructions and savings of more than 95% compared
checklists into interactive voice guidance. to traditional methods during customer
Workers are guided through tasks in their trials. 8tree is now beta-testing PanoLite,
native language and can ask questions or which it says makes the process of large
3
receive reminders about tasks that need to area inspection even faster, easier and
be completed, which Whispr says solves more user-friendly. 8tree says PanoLite is
language, accent and literacy challenges a more agile solution suited for broader
while helping workers better understand use cases, such as in the hangar, on the
different work processes. Whispr is line or in AOG settings.
currently working to pilot the technology marketplace.aviationweek.com/prod-
with Iberia and says the platform can help uct/oem-approved-damage-mapping-
airlines and MROs improve the speed, point-click-done
accuracy and safety of aircraft inspections
and turnarounds. 5. Simplifying Unscheduled
marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Maintenance
product/whispr-aviation-and-mro 4 Company: SynapseMX
3. Versatile Tool Mat Product: SynapseMX MRO data platform
Company: Grypmat 5 Specifications: The SynapseMX cloud-

based platform seeks to help carri-
Product: Nonslip flexible tool mat ers solve unscheduled maintenance
Specifications: Designed to increase headaches through the use of real-time
mechanics’ efficiency, safety and productiv- data tools, which forecast potential
ity, Grypmat is a flexible tool mat that bends impact, timing, parts needs and more,
Go to MROLinks.com for more information.
6
for maintenance events occurring in vary- 8. 3D Scanning
ing conditions and locations. The platform
enables teams to monitor issues in real Company: Artec 3D
time, assign jobs, sign off on work, track job Product: Artec Leo handheld scanner
progress and use performance metrics to Specifications: As one of the newest products in
identify where bottlenecks are taking place. Artec 3D’s line of scanning solutions, the Artec Leo
SynapseMX recently added functionality is a handheld wireless scanner that uses structured
for language translation, image and video light technology to produce a three-dimensional
capture, and alerts about maintenance gate replica of aircraft parts and spaces. Artec says
calls, which users can customize to receive the Leo’s ability to scan in smaller spaces or more
the most relevant notifications. unstable environments makes it ideal for use cases
marketplace.aviationweek.com/product/ such as scanning inside aircraft lavatories or on
real-time-maintenance-management-
execution-platform 7 aircraft wings. The Leo can be used for a variety of
applications within aerospace and MRO such as
quality assurance, damage scanning and reverse
6. Plug-and-Play Aircraft Washing engineering of parts.
marketplace.aviationweek.com/product/
Company: Riveer artec-leo
Product: Wingman aircraft washing system
Specifications: Riveer’s “plug-and-play” 9. Maintenance Tracking
Wingman washing system has been for General Aviation
designed to eliminate aircraft corrosion or
damage caused by leftover soap residue Company: Crewchief Systems
and excessive water pressure. The electric Product: Crewchief GA MRO app
hot water foam and rinse system consists Specifications: Aimed at helping general
of a high-efficiency electric boiler, two aviation operators manage maintenance,
hot water guns and a high-volume foam operations and compliance, Crewchief GA
system, which Riveer says is easy to install
and works with the 480-volt, three phase 8 from Crewchief Systems is an app that en-
ables users to track maintenance timelines,
outlets currently found in many aircraft receive personalized alerts about needed
hangars. According to Riveer, Wingman’s service, digitalize maintenance history and logbooks,
built-in combination of water temperature and and review aircraft usage analytics and reports. The
pressure control is ideal for in-hangar wash- company is now working to build out two new ver-
ing of fixed wing and rotary aircraft. sions of the app—Crewchief MX, aimed at mechan-
marketplace.aviationweek.com/product/ ics, and Crewchief FM to help maintenance facilities
wash-your-aircraft-hangar-wingman keep track of all the aircraft they are managing.
7. Tackling Tool Tracking
9 crewchief-systems-mobile-app
Company: Xerafy 10. Enhanced Portable Data Loading

Product: MRO Starter Kit
Specifications: Xerafy’s MRO Starter Kit Company: Teledyne Controls
for Workshop Tool Management is aimed at Product: PMAT XS dataloader
helping MROs, airlines and OEMs imple- Specifications: The PMAT XS is a smaller, lighter
ment the company’s tool-tracking solutions version of Teledyne Controls’ PMAT 2000 portable
on a small-scale trial basis. The kit comes dataloader featuring enhanced data security and
with a selection of tool-tracking elements, a rugged design. The dataloader integrates
including RFID tags for hand tools and with ground management systems to download
equipment, an RFID handheld scanner engine data and automatically distribute software
and demonstration software. According to and application updates for avionics systems.
Xerafy, the technology can be used to solve The PMAT XS features battery, aircraft and
productivity and compliance issues in MRO ground power options and can be updated via
environments and the starter kit can help ethernet, Wi-Fi, cellular networks or Teledyne
customers see how the solutions might fit software, which Teledyne says enables flexibility
into their workflow and facilities. for ground crews.
automated-tool-control-starter-kit
10 marketplace.aviationweek.com/product/
introducing-all-new-pmat-xs
Go to MROLinks.com for more information.
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SECOND TAKE
2010-2019
2011 JUNE The first trial of aircraft 2018

OCTOBER The first more-electric, inspection by drone EasyJet and DECEMBER The first dedicated
advanced composite airliner Blue Bear Systems Research small-satellite rideshare launch
enters service Boeing 787 Spaceflight Industries and SpaceX
JULY Crossing of the English
2012 Channel by an all-electric 2019
AUGUST The first space probe demonstrator Airbus E-Fan JANUARY The first soft landing on
to leave the Solar System The first spacecraft to explore the far side of the Moon China
NASA’s Voyager 1 Pluto NASA’s New Horizons National Space Agency Chang’e 4
2013 DECEMBER The first return and FEBRUARY The first test passenger
FEBRUARY Certification of the vertical landing of an orbital flown on a commercial suborbital
first large geared turbofan engine rocket stage SpaceX Falcon 9 spacecraft Virgin Galactic
Pratt & Whitney PW1500G VSS Unity
2016
MAY The first catapult launch of an JANUARY Unveiling of the first APRIL The first flight of the world’s
unmanned aircraft from a carrier electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing largest aircraft by wingspan
Northrop Grumman X-47B autonomous air taxi Ehang 184 Scaled Composites Stratolaunch
2014 APRIL The first run of the world’s OCTOBER The first commercial
NOVEMBER The first soft landing most powerful turbofan engine satellite-servicing spacecraft is
on a comet nucleus European General Electric GE9X launched Northrop Grumman
Space Agency’s Rosetta mission
JULY The first circumnavigation The 2010s saw the Stratolaunch
2015 of the world by a piloted solar- (top) become the largest aircraft
MARCH The first spacecraft to powered aircraft Solar Impulse 2 to fly and the X-47B (below) the first
orbit a dwarf planet NASA’s carrier-launched unmanned aircraft.
The first FAA-approved autonomous
Dawn mission to Ceres
drone delivery to a home
APRIL The first remote-control air Flirtey and 7-Eleven
traffic control tower is deployed
Saab and Sweden’s LFV
TOP: STRATOLAUNCH SYSTEMS; BOTTOM: U.S. NAVY
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Together. We make it fly.

Boeing plans to focus on

EDITORS’ LETTER SIMULATION AND TRAINING

Into the Next

SHUTTERSTOCK AND DON GIORDANO/AWST

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton

WHEN IT COMES TO PERFORMANCE,

PEACE OF MIND, SINCE 1948.

Your Microhydraulics Flight Manual.

The Lee Company 860-399-6281 • www.TheLeeCo.com

draft modules in- trim wheel.

PRATT & WHITNEY GTF ENGINES

> AIRBUS AND BOEING WITNESS

> ELECTRIC BEAVER CERTIFICATION ANTICIPATED IN 2022

> PARTNERS PLAN TO ELECTRIFY OTHER AIRCRAFT TYPES

Flying more than 500,000 passen-

Rocket Lab, Wallops Island Spaceport well as to the unwavering support

U.S. Air Force, NASA and Virginia

responsive and reliable access to

Air Force Space Policy Guru Loverro

> HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT TAKES HALF OF NASA’S BUDGET

Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

cations such as exploration robotics,

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Aerospace & Defense 2020 incorporates data from

Graham Warwick Washington

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Aircraft in Open Competitions, 2020-29

Deliveries by Category, 2020-25 Likelihood of Deliveries, 2020-25

Tankers/Transports C4ISR/Maritime/Firefighters Bombers

Source: 2020 Aviation Week Military Forecast

MILITARY AIRCRAFT buy 88 aircraft. It will choose from the

Air Force hopes to award a

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TH-57 helicopter replacement, choosing

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it in an operational environment, send-

Turkey’s International Defense UAVs and naval vessels and by drill-

Ongoing Political Crisis Holds Up the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at 7%

chain to build up a stockpile of missiles

Moves by Iran Prompt Defense Qatar is taking a similar approach, cre-

as it flies to a position for launching

KF-X Funding Surges In Indonesia did not contribute to

Russia Threat Prompts Airpower air picture, to work on counter-UAS