Effective Maintenance Management MODUL

STATISTICAL METHODS
FOR IMPROVING EFFICIENCY

Nomenclature
λ = mean arrival rate of units into system
L = length of waiting line for maintenance
µ = mean service rate

σ = the standard deviation

W = idle time of unit until it is maintained
x = any data point
x = the arithmetic mean of all data
z = standardized variable of normal distribution

Single Component Systems

In preventive (predictive) maintenance scheduling, the primary problem is: “ When should
the equipment be taken off stream for maintenance?” In most plants, a large portion of the
equipment can be grouped into more or less homogenous units, for instance, all high and
low-level alarms in hydrocarbon service, all continuously operating centrifugal pumps within
size ranges, all compressors, and so forth.
No statistical analysis can be undertaken without first having collected data. Not just data,
but a planned program to collect the needed information in the form and frequency needed.
This includes such items as length of run, duration of downtime, details of what maintenance
work was necessary, and causes of downtime.
Therefore, to initiate the program, design the maintenance reporting forms to collect the
data in a form that can be useful in statistical analysis.

Component Parts
Assume a bank of compressors with the data given in table 5-1 accumulated for a certain
shaft bearing. The first step to planning a maintenance schedule is that of plotting the
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Effective Maintenance Management MODUL

frequency of run-length occurrences. To do this. the data must be grouped into classes.
Examination of table 5-1 indicates a range of from 870 to 1140 hr, or 1140 – 879 = 270 hr.
Divide this into, say, 9 classes : 270/9 = 30 hr per class. Table 5-2 arranges the data from
table 5-1 into a frequency distribution. Figure 5-1 shows the data from table 5-2 plotted to
give a graph of the frequency distribution. Examination of figure 5-1 indicates that the
distribution is approximately normal. This will be the case with many component parts or
items with a small number of parts. The average or mean of the data shown in table 5-1 is
1000 hr. Both table 5-2 and figure 5-1 confirm this. The mean is, by definition, that point
above and below which 50 percent of the cases occur. Therefore, if it was decided to tolerate
half of the bearing failures at unforeseen or unplanned times, then the decision would be to
let all bearing run for 1000 hr, then take the compressors down for replacement.

Table 5-1 Compressor Run Duration to Bearing Failure, Hours

COMPRESS. LENGTH COMPRESS. LENGTH COMPRESS. LENGTH

COMPRESS. LENGTH
NO. OF RUN NO. OF RUN NO. OF RUN
NO. OF RUN

8 967 7 1059 6 1022

7 984
4 909 5 1035 2 987
4 1010
6 978 3 926 8 998
2 1041
3 1018 8 1002 5 1038
5 917
5 938 4 964 7 955
1 1024
2 1010 3 874 4 1015
8 959
1 1008 2 1014 3 982
1 1047
6 1054 6 940 8 992
7 882
2 1104 1 996 1 1077
3 1089
7 1040 5 1138 4 1028
6 970
.
Table 5-2 Frequency Distribution of Data in Table 5-1
Class Interval, Hours Frequency of Occurrence
870 - 900 2
900 - 930 3
930 - 960 4
960 - 990 7

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Effective Maintenance Management MODUL

990 - 1020 10
1020 - 1050 8
1050 - 1080 3
1080 - 1110 2
1110 - 11 40 1

A more realistic decision rule would be to arrange a preventive maintenance program so

that only 10 percent of the failures would be of the emergency or unforeseen type. The
percentage of the area under a normal curve between the mean and any point to the left or
right is approximately defined by the z static, which is :
x - x
z =
σ
when x = any data point
x = the mean of all the data = 1000 hr in this case
σ = the standard deviation

The standard deviation is defined as :

Σ ( x - x)2 1/2

σ =
n - 1

where n = the number of data points.

10

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Effective Maintenance Management MODUL

885 945 1005 1065

1125
Hours

Figure 5-1. Frequency Distribution of Bearing Failures

The standard deviation for the data shown in table 5-1, without showing the computation, is
57.2 hr. Noting only the abscissa of figure 5-1, it can be seen that essentially no bearing will
fail before 874 hr. If zero percent will fail before 874 hr and 50 percent will fail at about 1000
hr, then 10 percent will fail somewhere in between, at say x hr.
A greatly abbreviated table of z-values is shown in Table 5-3. These values are the area
under one half (the right half) of the normal curve. Since the curve is symmetrical about the
mean ( z = 0 at the mean), a table of one half the curve suffices. From table 5-3, the z-
value corresponding to x in figure 5-2 is 1.28. Substituting in (z is negative because area
of interest is to left of the mean).

874 x 1000

Figure 5-2. Hours In Service

Table 5-3 z Values

z Area Under z Area Under

- Normal Curve - Normal Curve

0 .0000 1.6 .4452

.2 .0793 1.8 .4641
.4 .1554 2.0 .4772
.8 .2881 2.4 .4918
1.0 .3413 2.6 .4953
1.2 .3849 2.8 .4974
1.4 .4192 3.0 .4987

x - x
-z =
σ
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Effective Maintenance Management MODUL

x - 1000
- 1.28 =
57.2

x = 926.8

Therefore, by removing each unit from service at approximately 927 hr, on the average, 90
percent of the unscheduled failures will be averted.

Multicomponent Systems

Consider the foregoing problem from another point of view. Interest is now centered around
the failure of a compressor which is, in affect, a multi component system. The phenomenon
present here is that, even though the life of each individual component follows the normal
distribution, the increments of time between system failures usually follow a Poison
distribution. For the behavior analysis, an additional group of data is necessary. The second
distribution is that of the length of time required to repair each compressor. Care should be
exercised so that only repair time is recorded, not idle time plus repair time. Figure 5-3 and 5-
4 illustrate, respectively, these two distributions. Assume that the average in Figure 5-3 is 84
hr (3.5 days) and in figure 5-4, 30 hr (1.25 days). From these data there is much information
about the system which is available. Note that average is defined as that point which divides
the area under the curve in half, not the midpoint of the x- axis.

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240

TIME BETWEEN FAILURES, HOURS

Figure 5-3: Frequency Distribution of Time Intervals Between System Failures

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20 40 60 80 100

SERVICE TIME, HOURS

Figure 5-4. Frequency Distribution of Time Required to Repair Compressors

The average number of compressors waiting to be maintained (assuming only one

maintenance crew is available) is:

λ 2

L =
µ (µ - λ )

where λ = mean arrival rate (units are in arrivals per time unit), in this case 1/3.5 or

2/7 unit/ days, and

µ = mean service rate (units are in service per time unit), in this case 1/1.25 or

4/5 unit/ days.

Therefore :

(2/7)2
L = = 0.17 unit/days
4/5 (4/5 - 2/7)

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Effective Maintenance Management MODUL

It is of interest to know the average length of time an idle compressor must wait until the
maintenance crew starts to work on it. This is expressed by :

λ
W =
µ (µ - λ )

2/7
= = 0.68 days
4/5 (4/5 - 2/7 )

Since this is probably excessive, quantitative justification for another maintenance crew is
now available. The expressions above for L and W are valid only if one crew is available.
Other formulas exist for two or more crews. Also, other formulas exist for cases where the
input distributions differ from those used in this example. It should be noted that the results
for L and W are average results over a period of time and seldom, if ever, will apply in
individuals situations. This is not altogether a disadvantage in that, if justification for another
crew is being attempted, the average or long-term utilization is the information being sought.
This discussion was not intended to present an exhaustive coverage of the subject. It was
intended to illustrate to the maintenance engineer some of the statistical and operation
research methods which are available to him to help in making decisions. These methods,
previously confined to the mathematical and statistical, have evolved to the stage where they
have become an engineer’s tool.

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