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Iran holds all the cards in coming Middle East con ict with US -
unless Trump is ready to drop a tactical NUKE Subscribe to RT newsletter to get stories
the mainstream media won’t tell you
Scott Ritter
is a former US Marine Corps intelligence o icer. He served in the Soviet Union as an inspector
implementing the INF Treaty, in General Schwarzkopf’s sta during the Gulf War, and from 1991- E-mail
1998 as a UN weapons inspector.

6 Jan, 2020 12:04 / Updated 1 hour ago Get short URL

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Two potential targets: US Air Force B-52 bombers at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, © Reuters, US Air Gorce; The Fordow Uranium Conversion
Facility in Qom, Iran © AFP / Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation

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Iran has promised retaliation for the assassination of Qassem Suleimani. Donald Trump said this will lead to a
disproportionate response from the US. One side can deliver on its threats, the other can’t, unless it goes nuclear.

Iran means business

“Our reaction,” Iranian general Hossein Dehghan said at the weekend, “will be wise, well considered and, in time, with
decisive deterrent e ect.”
Dehghan also noted that Iran was not seeking a wider confrontation with the US.

“It was America that has started the war. Therefore, they should accept appropriate reactions to their actions. The only
thing that can end this period of war is for the Americans to receive a blow that is equal to the blow they have in icted.”
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Dehghan is no run-of-the-mill former Iranian general o icer, but was one of the major decision makers within the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the Iran-Iraq War, and later went on to command the IRGC Air Force, before
eventually being appointed Iran’s minister of defense. After stepping down from that position, Dehghan became a special
advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei.
His words must be viewed as representing those of Khamenei himself.

Iran’s three likely targets

A closer assessment of Dehghan’s statement, when considered in the context of the vote by the Iraqi Parliament this
Sunday to remove all foreign troops from Iraq, provides clarity as to what the US and the Middle East can expect from
Five countries with the world’s biggest gold reserves
Tehran.
First and foremost, the response will not be carried out by proxy.
The attack will be military in nature. Assaults on the oil and gas infrastructure of America’s Gulf Arab allies, similar in
nature to the drone attacks on Saudi oil production facilities last May, are not in the works. The same holds true for
shipping transiting the strategic Strait of Hormuz, as well as US diplomatic facilities in the region.

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sanctions’ unless
it pays back
BILLIONS for an
airbase if US
troops are forced
to withdraw

Likewise, Iran must respect the will of the Iraqi Parliament regarding the operation of foreign troops on its soil, which Enrichment based on technical needs: Iran rolls back on 2015
means that the response will most probably not be conducted against US military forces currently stationed in Iraq. nuclear deal

This does not mean US troops and facilities in Iraq will be immune to attack; Khaitab Hezbollah, the Iraqi militia whose
leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in the same attack that took Qassem Suleimani’s life, have pledged their own
retaliatory attacks separate from those promised by Iran.
There are a host of viable US military targets in the Persian Gulf region that are of high enough stature as to qualify as “an
equal blow” in the eyes of Tehran.

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An F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing, 27th Fighter Squadron taxis for departure deployment to Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, from Joint Base
Langley-Eustis, Virginia © Reuters

Three come to mind; the concentration of US forces based in Kuwait, the headquarters of the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, and the
Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
Of these three, only one, Al Udeid Air Base, has a direct connection to the Suleimani assassination; the drones that red
the missiles that killed Suleimani were operated from there. Al Udeid is host to critical US command and control facilities,
as well as the bulk of the American combat aircraft operating in the region. It is well within the range of Iranian ballistic
missiles and armed drones, which could be expected to operate in concert with one another to defeat air defenses and
then saturate the base with precision strikes which could destroy hundreds of millions of dollars of aircraft and equipment, Trump threatens Iraq with ‘very big sanctions’ unless it pays back
and potentially kill and wound hundreds of US service members. BILLIONS for an airbase if US troops are forced to withdraw

Trump’s all tweets, no capacity

President Trump has promised that the US will not tolerate any attack against its personnel or facilities. “If they do
anything,” he told reporters, referring to Iran, “there will be major retaliation.”
Earlier, Trump had tweeted a very explicit warning, telling Iran that he had already designated some 52 sites inside Iran,
“some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture,” for destruction. “[T]hose targets,” Trump declared,
“and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!”

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Trump says US will

strike 52 Iranian
sites ‘VERY FAST
& VERY HARD’ if
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death

Trump’s threat, however, rings hollow. First, his tweet constitutes de facto evidence of a war crime (Section 5.16.2 of the
US Department of Defense Law of War Manual prohibits threats to destroy cultural objects for the express purpose of
deterring enemy operations), and as such would likely not be implemented by US military commanders for whom niceties
such as the law of war, which forbids the execution of an unlawful order, are serious business.
Of more relevance, however, is the fact that Trump has been down this road before, when he threatened massive military
retaliation against Iran for shooting down an unarmed drone over the Strait of Hormuz last May. At that time, he was
informed by his military commanders that the US lacked the military wherewithal to counter what was expected to be a full-
spectrum response by Iran if the US were to attack targets inside Iran.

In short, Iran was able to in ict massive harm on US and allied targets in the Middle East region, and there was nothing
the US could do to prevent this outcome.

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Little has changed since May that would alter the military balance of power between the US and Iran. If Iran were to strike
a US facility such as the Al Udeid Air Base, and Trump were to order a response, then Iran would most likely unleash the
totality of its military capability, and those of its regional proxies, to devastate the military and economic capabilities of
those targeted. These strikes would most likely include oil production facilities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, in
addition to US military facilities and diplomatic missions.
Seen in this light, Trump’s threats of retaliation appear to be little more than words that cannot be backed up by reality.

Pushing the red button for Fordow

However, there was a second signi cant development in the region on Sunday, in addition to the vote by the Iraqi
Parliament to cut ties with the US military.

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nuclear deal

The Iranian government announced that it was ending all restrictions on the enrichment of uranium, in e ect nullifying the
Iran nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action, or JCPOA), which the US withdrew from in May
2018. While Iran has stated that these measures were reversible if the US returned to the agreement, the newly
unconstrained enrichment capability puts Iran well inside the one year “breakout” window (i.e. the time needed by Iran to
produce enough ssile material for a single nuclear device) of one year that underpinned the prime purpose of the JCPOA.

In doing so, Iran has inadvertently opened itself up to a preemptive nuclear attack by the US.

the interior of the Fordo (Fordow) Uranium Conversion Facility in Qom, Iran © AFP / HO / Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP

The centrifuges that could be used by Iran to produce enriched uranium capable of being used in a ssile device are
housed in a hardened underground facility located near the town of Fordow. No conventional munition currently in the US
arsenal can destroy Fordow.
Only a modi ed B-61 nuclear bomb can do the job.

GAO: Flight Test of a B61-12 Nuclear Bomb

Trump has hinted that any future war with Iran would not be a drawn-out a air. And while the law of war might curtail his
commanders from executing any retaliation that includes cultural sites, it does not prohibit the US from using a nuclear
weapon against a known nuclear facility deemed to pose a threat to national security.

This is the worst-case scenario of any tit-for-tat retaliation between Iran and the US, and it is not as far-fetched as one
might believe.
Subscribe to RT newsletter to get stories the mainstream media won’t tell you.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily
represent those of RT.

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Conversation (120)
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General Von Klinkerho en Leader · 1h

US must be removed from this region. Of the universe.

Reply · Share · 20 Likes ·

BisphenolA Leader · 1h

Mr. Trump threatens to destroy enemy cultural sites. Sounding unfamous DAESH (CIA) tactics in Syria.
Does not surpise a bit though.
Reply · Share · 18 Likes ·

daggo77 Leader · 21m BisphenolA

and bring them to the US

Reply · Share ·

Len Vasilev Leader · 1h BisphenolA

destroying cultural sites has traditionally been a muslim thing though

Reply · Share · 1 Like ·

Show 3 more replies

Kabsa Leader · 1h

So Qatar is party to the crime. Now we know the culprit number one in the region.
Reply · Share · 11 Likes ·

Show 2 previous replies

Annairam Leader · 3m Kabsa

Qatar hosts the biggest US base in ME since the Gulf war.

The Al Thani have to play a careful game unless they want regime change.
Reply · Share ·

Ld Elon Leader · 1h Kabsa

al jazeera sold out long ago fren.

Can only trust presstv today.
Reply · Share · 1 Like ·

Auschamp Leader · 1h

Iran has said the response would be of similar nature.. maybe they will hit a US general or Trump himself..
it's not impossible to reach either of them.. right!!
Reply · Share · 8 Likes ·

Show 1 previous replies

300 WinMag Leader · 17m Auschamp

When your enemy has a leader that's taking the country down a road of self destruction, you don't
assassinate him. Trump is safe.
Reply · Share ·

IM_Back Leader · 1h Auschamp

If I were planning a revenge action I'd be looking at the vast amount of infrastructure that is just
laying around. Powerlines, cell towers, water, oil storage should all have big bull's eyes painted on
them. Then there are forest res.
Reply · Share · 5 Likes ·

Show 2 more replies

RTreaderCaribb Leader · 1h

It is shameful and disgusting that countries in this world still make trade with the US. Stop it. Stop it now
or you are guilty to support these murderers.
Reply · Share · 12 Likes ·

General Von Klinkerho en Leader · 1h

US must be stopped like the Empire of Japan in 1945.

Reply · Share · 8 Likes ·

davemass Leader · 52m

Anyone remember 'Fail Safe' ?

Henry Fonda had to nuke New York to compensate for nuking Moscow.
So why not o er the head of Pompeo as 2nd in command? or Pence?
That would even things out.
Reply · Share · 4 Likes ·

Daniel Astudillo Estrella Leader · 1h

52, yes true isis aim was to destroy all civilisation sides in irak, afganistan, turkmenistan...all part of areas
beloning to the persian empire. Many things in common, this isis and the screenbook of the pentagon.
Arms, training, targets.. anyone ever saw this similiarities? Trump is in many aspects a simple mind for
executing giving orders.. he tweets too much
Reply · Share · 3 Likes ·

Normalan Leader · 1h

Very soon we should expect weapons delivery from Russia.

Reply · Share · 5 Likes ·

Show 1 previous replies

CHoward Leader · 35m Normalan

already on the way I suppose Im thinking their very well tested short and long range air defense
systems will be the rst to show up, If I was Putin i'd ask for permission to use air bases mig31 with
new kinzals will keep all otillas out of the persian gulf the only way in which the US can resupply
by water, secure that and then resupply becomes a very costly matter going thru Saudi Arabia by
land and air.
Reply · Share ·

BisphenolA Leader · 1h · Edited Normalan

It is all good for business for progress and prosperity. Also seriously doubting that USA would nuke
Iran. It would end it all too quickly. Russia and USA alike have many military industrial business
opportunities ahead in a form of prolongned chaos, death and destruction from which corporate
USA thrives as these superpowers tend to manage con icts for their own bene t not to end them.
Reply · Share ·

Show 1 more replies

Iwanasay Leader · 27m

If the US used a Nuke, I could see the majority of countries shunning the US and refusing to deal with
them, the US would be out in the cold.
Reply · Share · 2 Likes ·

rayb123 Leader · 25m Iwanasay

hopefully
Reply · Share · 1 Like ·

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