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Fixing Sales and Bidding at GQS

1) Fit of the Model

Logistic Regression was run with:

Dependent variable - Award(Yes/No)

Independent Variable – Project Type, Region, GO Score and Project Type

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test – The model shows very good significance

 This shows Good Fit for the Model

Variables Which Are Key Drivers for the Model

 Region
 Business Unit
 Project Value
o Furthermore, the Probability of Go isn’t significant showing that the number of
projects moving to the prospect isn’t significant which goes with the prediction
made by Lehmann that the model used the employees to come up with the Go
Score is faulty
o Similarly, Project Code Extra Large( > $201 million ) isn’t significant. The company
henceforth needn’t spend resources in prospect stage, thereby saving valuable time
and money
o This additional excess capacity utilisation can be used in other projects

3rd Question

Logistic Regression with additional independent variable was added (Probability of Get)

 The Goodness of Fit for the above case can be seen below:

Significance Level is Good for the Above Model


 From the Above table, Lehmann’s Prediction that the Probability of Go and Get is both faulty
has been validated.
 Hence the model currently being employed by the employees at GQS is faulty.

 Further analysis of Existing data tells that the accuracy of predicting Get Award is 51%,
whereas the Binary Logistic Model built by Us gives an accuracy of 74.3%
 This Shows that the model built currently can yield better results.

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