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CASE 2:- Pursuing the Right Prospects: Fixing Sales

and Bidding at GQS Through Data Analytics


1) Perform a detailed analysis of GQS’s historical bid data from 2012 to 2016
using the dataset provided in GQS Historical Bid Wins.xls:

 Estimate a binary choice model to determine whether customer


project type, region, GO score, and project size affect the probability of
winning a bid. For project size, use the classification provided in the
datasheet (small, medium, large). Small projects are valued at less than
$10 million, medium projects are between $11 million and $200
million, and large projects are greater than $201 million.
 Assess the fit of the model using fit indices.
 Determine which variables are the key drivers of winning bids.
 Comment on the fitness of the model versus the GET score in
predicting performance.

A detailed analysis on GQS’s historical bid data from 2012 to 2016 using
the dataset GQS Historical Bid Wins.xls has been performed through
Binary Logistic regression.

For reliability of our data we are coding the independent variables region
and business unit as per the labels given in the case:

Region: Business Unit:

North America – 1 Turnkey - 1

Europe – 2 Traditional - 2

Middle East – 3 Construction - 3

North Africa - 4

As per our analysis, the following table establishes the relationship


between the probability of winning a bid with the variables Customer
project type, region, GO score and project size. We have taken AwardYes
as the dependent variable and others as independent variables. The table
is given below:

As per the table we can see all the regions, project size as well as the
project type are significant to determine the probability of winning a bid.
All this variables inversely impacts the winning probability heavily. On the
other hand the Go score is not at all significant in determining the
probability of winning.

The fitness of the model is given below:

As we can see the accuracy of the model is around 73% which is fair enough
as per the predictions given in the table.
We can see our model has a R square of 0.372 which is moderately fair for
our predictions.

Let’s see the correlation tables and matrixes given below:


The significant factor between Award(Yes) and Probability of Get is 0.672
which is much greater than 0.05. Hence the Get score cannot predict the
winning of a bid precisely. The model may be fit enough with other variables
but the Get score alone is not enough to predict the winning of the bid.

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