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Hey guys,

Welcome to your Football Trading Price Prediction Cheat Sheet!

Trying to get an idea of where the prices will move to when a goal goes in is
something that more experienced football traders like myself take for granted.
With time you just “know” where the prices will be.
But for those who are new, this cheat sheet should prove very useful. Follow
the formula and you will have a very good idea of where the prices will move
to in both Match Odds and Goal Markets. This will help you plan your trades
on the fly, especially in-play.
Enjoy :)

Ben Michaels, Founder of SportsTradingLife.com

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 WARNING

Quick warning before we begin...

The purpose of this cheat sheet is to give you a good idea of the
price range that you can expect the prices to move to after a goal.
There is no definitive way to predict it precisely to the tick so just
knowing the sort of range you are looking for is what we can do and
is what is most important.

In most cases, it will be accurate but it is important to understand

that it is not 100% accurate.

And NOTHING can be when trading.

Sometimes, there are forces that we can't even see that can make
the prices unpredictable but this is more likely to happen on the
obscure matches rather than anything top-level.

Anyway, here are the formulas to remember...

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MATCH
ODDS
MARKET

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 MATCH ODDS MARKET
If you want to get an idea of the minimum price move and the expected price
range after a goal then this is the calculation to do. SP means starting price
and you can easily identify a teams SP just by looking at the Betfair price
chart.

Goal Scored = SP/3

Goal Conceded = SP*3
This way you can work out the minimum price after a goal, keeping
in mind that time value is a factor and the later in the match the goal
arrives, the bigger the move to expect.

For example.....
Arsenal have an SP of 1.40.

If Arsenal score first (1.40/3) their price will move to 1.13 or lower.

If Arsenal concede first (1.40*3) their price will move to 2.20 or

higher.

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 The Calculation (Below Evens)
Here is the best way to do the calculation when a team is odds-on (below 2)
since many make the mistake of using the actual decimal odds to perform the
calculation.

Step 1: Remove the decimal numbers.

So 1.40 becomes simply 40.
Step 2: Divide that number by 3.
So 40/3 = 13.33
Step 3: Round to nearest whole number.
So 13.33 becomes 13.
Step 4: Put the decimal numbers back in place and you have...
1.13

This calculation will become easier with time and, remember, we

just want an idea of the odds range rather than a precise number.

In this case we would say that if Arsenal score first their expected
odds range is 1.13 to 1.01.

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The Calculation (Above Evens)
If you want to know the expected price move on a team that has a starting
price above evens then the calculation is similar but with one small variation.

Lets look at an example if Newcastle United had an SP of 2.40

Step 1: Minus 1 from the decimal number.

So 2.40 becomes 1.40.
Step 2: Remove the decimal point.
So 1.40 becomes 140.
Step 3: Divide that number by 3.
So 140/3 = 46.66
Step 3: Round to nearest whole number.
So 46.66 becomes 47.
Step 4: Put the decimal numbers back in place and you have...
1.47

In this case we would say that if Newcastle score first their

expected odds range is 1.47 to 1.01.

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 The Calculation (Above Evens)

Let's try this again on a higher price, do note the higher the odds, the less
accurate this can become.

Lets look at an example if Huddersfield had an SP of 4.2

Step 1: Minus 1 from the decimal number.

So 4.20 becomes 3.20
Step 2: Remove the decimal point.
So 3.20 becomes 320
Step 3: Divide that number by 3.
So 320/3 = 106.66
Step 3: Round to nearest whole number.
So 106.66 becomes 107.
Step 4: Put the decimal numbers back in place and you have...
2.07
Step 5:
Round this number up to the nearest possible Betfair price.
2.07 becomes 2.08.

In this case we would say that if Huddersfield score first their

expected odds range is 2.08 to 1.01.

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 If Losing The Lead?
If you lay a team with a 1 goal lead and they concede an equaliser it is quite
easy to work out where their odds will move to.

Lose The Lead Price = SP

(or more)
So you can expect that if a team is leading by a single goal and the
match is levelled then their price will return to their starting price.
But depending on the time of the match this is likely to be higher
than the starting price.

For example.....
Arsenal have an SP of 1.40.

Arsenal score first and their price moves to 1.13.

But later in the match they concede and equaliser.

This means their price will go back to the SP of 1.40.

Depending on the time of the match this price range could be

anything from 1.40 to 1000 (90th minute equaliser!).

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This chart from Newcastle V Tottenham shows you how the
price bounces back to the SP after an equaliser is scored.

In this case, Tottenham had an SP of 2.

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 EXAMPLES
Here are some example price charts so you can see the price
movement after a goal.

You can also check this in real life for yourself to see it with your
own eyes...

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Liverpool SP was 1.26

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Crystal Palace SP was 2.90

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Man Utd SP was 1.59

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 GOAL
MARKETS

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 OVER/UNDER GOALS
MARKETS

The goal markets are very easy to predict since they all work in
parallel with each other.

When a goal goes in, the goal markets all just “move up 1” so the
prices on Over/Under 1.5 goals are now represented on the
Over/Under 2.5 goal market and so on.

So it would just be a case of looking at the last prices matched in

the goal market below and then adding on a maximum +10 ticks
(margin of error) to work out the expected odds range.

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 FOR EXAMPLE...
So here is the Over/Under 1.5 Goal market in this German league
match.

And here is the Over/Under 2.5 Goal market in this same match.

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 So based on that, if a goal went in right now in this match the
expected price range in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market would be
based on the prices from the Over/Under 1.5 Goals market.
And this would be:

Under 2.5 Goals = 3.70 to 4.40

Over 2.5 Goals = 1.27 to 1.37

This is just a rough example and keep in mind that the margin of
error is just there to ensure you always keep your worst case
scenario in mind and do not over estimate your profit expectations.

In most cases, the lower the odds the more accurate this becomes.

Most likely, the odds will settle in the middle of that margin of error
and look something like this.

Under 2.5 Goals = 3.95

Over 2.5 Goals = 1.32

Remember, the markets take a few moments to suspend,

confirm the goal and then settle at the new prices!

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This is a closed members only course. Access is via invite only.

Apply for an invite at the below link to be the first in line next time the doors
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UltimateFootballTrading.com/apply

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 Thanks!

So now you have this cheat sheet you can start watching the
markets to see if you can use it to predict the price movements after
a goal.

Very soon it will become second nature and you will know the
football markets like the back of your hand!

Best of luck in your football trading journey, and keep the stakes
small when learning!

Ben Michaels
SportsTradingLife.com

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