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2016 2017

11-Step of Forecasting - Penman (2010)


Actual Actual
1. Forecast Revenue
Revenue growth rate - estimated 68.08% 90.06%
Revenue Rp 23,788,322,626,347 Rp 45,212,897,632,604

2. Forecast ATO and calculate NOA


Forecast ATO (Revenue/NOA) 64.26% 63.90%
Calculate NOA (TA-TL+ Net Debt= Rp 37,020,326,903,787 Rp 70,760,189,698,067
Revenue/ATO)

3. Revise sales forecasts Rp - Rp -

4. Forecast PM and calculate NOPAT


Forecast PM (after tax) 10.11% 11.89%
Calculate NOPAT (NOPAT = Revenue x PM atau 2,405,697,810,747 5,375,411,163,928
NI+ CI+ NFEAT)

5. Forecast other operating income


% NOPAT 4.77% 5.77%
Other Operating Income After Tax Rp 114,703,274,755 Rp 310,018,158,776

6. Calculate free cash flow


Change in NOA 22,550,625,467,114 33,739,862,794,280
Calculate FCF (NOPAT – change in NOA) -20,144,927,656,367 -28,364,451,630,353

7. Forecast net dividend payout


Dividend paid 209,547,624,362 640,933,687,315
Estimated as a % of NOPAT 8.71% 11.92%

8. Calculate net payments to debt-holders


Payments = FCF - Dividend paid -20,354,475,280,729 -29,005,385,317,668

9. Forecast cost of debt and debt balance


Forecast cost of debt after tax 12.52% 5.92%
Opening debt balance (net debt) 4,765,494,569,005.00 20,247,108,346,839.00
Calculate cost of debt (net financing after tax) 596,514,334,491 1,198,628,677,826
Calculate closing debt (opening + interest - 20,247,108,346,839.00 48,005,364,888,572.00
repayment)
check leverage (Closing Debt/NOA) 54.69% 67.84%

10.Calculate comprehensive income


NOPAT - NFEAT 1,809,183,476,256 4,176,782,486,102

11.Calculate equity (check in both ways)

equity = assets - liabilities (NOA - Closing Debt) 16,773,218,556,948.00 22,754,824,809,495.00


closing equity = opening equity + Comp.
Income+ Komponen Ekuitas Lainnya - Dividend 16,773,218,556,948.00 22,754,824,809,495.00
paid
Check 0.00 0.00

Cos
Formula Rf + b (Market Rate Premium)

Raw Beta, 1 january 2019


Adjusted Beta, 1january 2019

Rf(Risk Free)
Risk Premium

CAPM(Normal)

Cost
Weighted Average
2016
Debt 31,052,637,181,085
Equity 16,773,218,556,948
Asset/Total Capital 47,825,855,738,033

Cost Of Capital (Debt) 12.52%


Cost Of Capital (Equity) 8.08%

Debt/Asset 65%
Equity/Asset 35%

WACC (Debt) 8.13%


WACC (Equity) 2.83%
Total WACC 10.96%

WACC

Discounted Free Cash Flow


2016 2017
FCF Growth -20,144,927,656,367 -28,364,451,630,353

Cost Of Capital (WACC)


6.83%
TV Growth Rate
2%
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
PV FCF
PV TV

Total PV
- 560,979,389,209,513
Less Debt
Rp 53,919,321,793,247.00
PV Equity
- 614,898,711,002,760.00
Number Of Share
13,573,902,599
Share Price
Rp (45,300)
2018 2019 2020
Actual Forecast Forecast

7.91% 36.47% 29.62%


Rp 48,788,950,838,822 Rp 66,581,177,967,291 Rp 86,300,157,137,100

58.92% 62.31% 61.67%


Rp 82,806,440,544,114 Rp 106,856,278,774,183 Rp 139,932,160,208,217

Rp - Rp - Rp -

12.85% 11.56% 11.56%


6,267,451,849,915 7,696,327,096,719 9,975,705,718,989

27.24% 9.08% 9.08%


Rp 1,707,502,675,103 Rp 524,249,838,430 Rp 679,514,013,072

12,046,250,846,047 24,049,838,230,069 33,075,881,434,034


-5,778,798,996,133 -16,353,511,133,351 -23,100,175,715,045

776,342,383,468 847,129,527,042 1,098,019,192,979


12.39% 11.01% 11.01%

-6,555,141,379,601 -17,200,640,660,393 -24,198,194,908,024

2.83% 5.94% 5.94%


48,005,364,888,572.00 53,919,321,793,247.00 74,323,290,869,503.10
1,358,395,856,858 3,203,328,415,863 4,415,521,221,050

53,919,321,793,247.00 74,323,290,869,503.10 102,937,006,998,577.00


65.11% 69.55% 73.56%

4,909,055,993,057 4,492,998,680,856 5,560,184,497,939

28,887,118,750,867.00 32,532,987,904,680.30 36,995,153,209,640.10


28,887,118,750,867.00 32,532,987,904,680.30 36,995,153,209,640.10

0.00 0.00 0.00

Cost Of Capital (Equity)


Sumber :

2.35% (Pefindo Beta Stock)


1.90%

8.05% (Market Risk Premia)


1.36%

8.08%

Cost Of Capital (WACC)


2017 2018
54,485,466,737,074 65,387,847,231,995
22,754,824,809,495 28,887,118,750,867
77,240,291,546,569 94,274,965,982,862

5.92% 2.83%
8.08% 8.08% (asumsi sama)

71% 69%
29% 31%

4.18% 1.96%
2.38% 2.48%
6.56% 4.44%

6.83%

1 2
2018 2019 2020
-5,778,798,996,133 -16,353,511,133,351 -24,198,194,908,024
1.0683253998 1.1413191599
- 15,307,612,396,230 - 21,201,952,756,625
2021 2022
Forecast Forecast

20.44% 28.05%
Rp 103,941,814,903,235 Rp 133,101,320,799,457

60.95% 61.64%
Rp 170,538,595,815,446 Rp 215,929,179,919,191

Rp - Rp -

11.56% 11.56%
12,014,960,247,698 15,385,598,950,820

9.08% 9.08%
Rp 818,421,682,114 Rp 1,048,019,095,700

30,606,435,607,229 45,390,584,103,746
-18,591,475,359,531 -30,004,985,152,926

1,322,478,562,067 1,693,482,488,293
11.01% 11.01%

-19,913,953,921,598 -31,698,467,641,219

5.94% 5.94%
102,937,006,998,577.00 128,966,413,203,251.00
6,115,452,283,076 7,661,850,378,794

128,966,413,203,251.00 168,326,731,223,264.00
75.62% 77.95%

5,899,507,964,622 7,723,748,572,026

41,572,182,612,194.80 47,602,448,695,927.30
41,572,182,612,194.80 47,602,448,695,927.30

0.00 0.00

3 4
2021 2022(Terminal Value)
-18,591,475,359,531 -30,004,985,152,926

- 620,894,711,071,824
1.2193002478
- 15,247,659,789,464
- 509,222,164,267,194
Financing Asset AKUN
Cash and Cash Equivalent
Investment Properties
Other Asset
Total Financial Assets
Financing Liabilities
Short Term Bank Loan
Loan to Financial Institution Non-Bank
Current Maturities of Long-Term Bank Loan
Short-Term Medium Term Notes
Short-Term Bonds Payable - Net
Long-Term Bank Loan
Long-Term Joint Ventre Payable
Long Term Loan to Financial Institution Non Bank
Long-Term Medium Term Notes
Long-Term Bonds Payable - Net
Debt Purchase of Fixed Assets
Employee Benefit Liabilities
Total Financial Liabilities
Net Debt

Keterangan 2014
Total Asset 0
Total Financial Asset 0
Total Liabilities 0
Net Debt 0
NOA 0
Changes in NOA 0
Net Income Rp 511,570,080,528
OCI Rp (39,683,164,139)
Revenue Rp 10,286,813,284,004
Tax Income Rp 254,389,167,647
Finance Charges (Int exp-Int Revenue) Rp 183,596,366,642
Finance Charges After Tax (NFEAT) Rp 137,697,274,982
Other Income Rp 37,019,667,482
Other Expenses Rp 13,075,647,154
Tarif Pajak 25%
Opening Equity
Dividen

Kategori 2016
KOMPONEN EKUITAS YANG SUDAH DIHITUNG
Laba Tahun Berjalan Rp 1,713,260,616,725
Selisih Revaluasi Aset Tetap dan Aset Tak Rp (4,509,463,998)
Berwujud
Pengukuran Kembali Program Imbalan Pasti- Rp 4,857,568,924
Bersih

Selisih Kurs Penjabaran Laporan Keuangan Rp (3,725,755,374)


Laporan Keuangan Kegiatan LN

Dividen Tunai Rp (209,547,624,362)


KOMPONEN EKUITAS LAINNYA
Cadangan Umum Rp -
Opsi Saham Rp 693,095,314
Pelaksanaan Opsi Saham Rp 478,508,280
Kepentingan Non-Pengendali Rp 5,546,553,582,070
Penyesuaian atas Perubahan Kepemilikan Rp 20,951,161,705
atas Entitas Anak
Koreksi atas Pengukuran Kembali Program Rp 507,490,080
Imbalas Pasti- Bersih
Koreksi atas Laba Tahun Berjalan Rp (99,808,000,059)
TOTAL KOMPONEN EKUITAS LAINNYA Rp 5,469,375,837,390
2015 2016 2017 2018
Rp 5,511,188,078,778 Rp 10,653,780,768,186 Rp 6,088,962,586,747 Rp 10,845,678,217,201
Rp 259,970,000,000 Rp 53,410,531,080 Rp 66,546,252,874 Rp 126,279,404,689
Rp 236,766,864,287 Rp 98,337,532,964 Rp 324,593,008,881 Rp 496,567,814,840
Rp 6,007,924,943,065 Rp 10,805,528,834,246 Rp 6,480,101,848,502 Rp 11,468,525,438,748

Rp 3,193,905,341,829 Rp 12,063,047,151,829 Rp 24,291,475,840,303 Rp 27,959,247,278,215


Rp 289,295,363,429 Rp 3,281,288,365,177 Rp 1,588,724,501,944 Rp 392,616,610,781
Rp 5,000,000,000 Rp 5,392,000,000 Rp 5,392,000,000 Rp 416,500,000,000
Rp - Rp - Rp 720,062,656,549 Rp 812,204,218,768
Rp 2,670,634,541,106 Rp 5,567,525,204,668 Rp 9,045,261,188,524 Rp 1,999,290,340,350
Rp 1,875,874,088,600 Rp 4,147,888,758,601 Rp 8,665,505,934,739 Rp 20,752,253,877,138
Rp - Rp 177,101,410,554 Rp 694,718,645,591 Rp 671,607,440,338
Rp - Rp 175,000,000,000 Rp 304,346,817,080 Rp 161,786,818,242
Rp - Rp - Rp - Rp 300,000,000,000
Rp 2,670,634,541,106 Rp 5,567,525,204,668 Rp 9,045,261,188,524 Rp 11,849,363,801,404
Rp 143,649,189 Rp 529,535,688 Rp 478,323,501 Rp 204,705,835
Rp 67,931,986,811 Rp 67,339,549,900 Rp 124,239,640,319 Rp 72,772,140,924
Rp 10,773,419,512,070 Rp 31,052,637,181,085 Rp 54,485,466,737,074 Rp 65,387,847,231,995
Rp 4,765,494,569,005 Rp 20,247,108,346,839 Rp 48,005,364,888,572 Rp 53,919,321,793,247
36,004,023,666,429
2015 2016 2017 2018
30,309,111,177,468 61,425,181,722,030 97,895,760,838,624 124,391,581,623,636
6,007,924,943,065 10,805,528,834,246 6,480,101,848,502 11,468,525,438,748
20,604,904,309,800 44,651,963,165,082 75,140,936,029,129 95,504,462,872,769
4,765,494,569,005 20,247,108,346,839 48,005,364,888,572 53,919,321,793,247
14,469,701,436,673 37,020,326,903,787 70,760,189,698,067 82,806,440,544,114
0 22,550,625,467,114 33,739,862,794,280 12,046,250,846,047
Rp 1,047,590,672,774 Rp 1,813,068,616,784 Rp 4,201,572,490,754 Rp 4,619,567,705,553
Rp 519,526,933,017 Rp (3,885,140,528) Rp (24,790,004,652) Rp 289,488,287,504
Rp 14,152,752,847,612 Rp 23,788,322,626,347 Rp 45,212,897,632,604 Rp 48,788,950,838,822
Rp 365,747,796,160 Rp 342,520,456,635 Rp (419,073,663,951) Rp (916,874,798,455)
Rp 340,008,402,044 Rp 795,352,445,988 Rp 1,598,171,570,434 Rp 1,811,194,475,810
Rp 255,006,301,533 Rp 596,514,334,491 Rp 1,198,628,677,826 Rp 1,358,395,856,858
Rp 185,652,343,033 Rp 147,474,747,992 Rp 437,854,359,890 Rp 2,025,109,357,243
Rp 39,918,754,375 Rp 43,695,297,650 Rp 170,448,268,152 Rp 423,475,576,187
25% 25% 25% 25%
2,764,978,687,052.00 9,704,206,867,664.00 16,773,218,556,948.00 22,754,824,809,495.00
209,547,624,362 513,978,185,018 776,342,383,468

2017 2018

Rp 4,201,572,490,754 Rp 4,619,567,705,553
Rp 2,317,234,293 Rp 242,948,717,891

Rp (30,389,156,835) Rp 27,790,965,459

Rp 3,281,917,890 Rp 18,748,604,154

Rp (640,933,687,315) Rp (776,342,383,468)

Rp - Rp -
Rp (33,307,214) Rp (568,091,840)
Rp 136,092,043 Rp -
Rp 2,849,739,994,629 Rp 1,480,886,491,663

Rp (404,085,325,698) Rp 519,261,931,960

Rp - Rp -

Rp - Rp -
Rp 2,445,757,453,760 Rp 1,999,580,331,783
16,773,218,556,948