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JULY/AUGUST 2016
JULY/AUGUST 2016 • VOLUME 95 • NUMBER 4 •
The
Struggle
for
Israel
THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL
F O R E I G N A F F A I R S .C O M
THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL
I
t’s common knowledge that the it, Netanyahu now leads the most right-
Middle East is in turmoil these days wing government in Israel’s history,
and that there are major tensions which Benn argues is allowing Netanyahu
between the United States and one of its to realize his long-held dream: replacing
crucial allies in the region, Israel. Less Israel’s old moderate and secular elite
commonly understood are the profound with a new hard-line and religious one.
ways in which Israel itself is changing. Robert Danin, an American diplo-
In important respects, the country matic veteran of the now-moribund
no longer resembles the image many peace process, examines the new threats
Westerners still picture—the liberal and often overlooked new opportunities
Zionist state of David Ben-Gurion, facing Israel’s foreign-policy makers.
Abba Eban, Golda Meir, and Yitzhak As’ad Ghanem of the University of
Rabin. The socialist Ashkenazi elite Haifa explores the plight of Israel’s
that used to dominate Israel’s politics Arab citizens, who are enjoying unprec-
has long since fractured and faded away. edented material gains even as they face
Sephardic Jews, Soviet immigrants, unprecedented threats to their political
settlers, the religious right, secular rights. And Amos Harel, one of Israel’s
Jews, and Arab Israelis now vie for influ- leading defense analysts, describes the
ence. In foreign policy, meanwhile, what challenges facing the country’s vaunted
Israel stands for, and who it stands military, including the recent wave of
with, is also in play. “lone wolf” knife attacks.
To scout this new landscape, we’ve Finally, Martin Kramer of Shalem
turned to some of Israel’s leading poli- College offers a vigorous dissent, noting
ticians and observers. What emerges is that in many respects, Israel is better
a picture of a country enjoying a rare off today than ever before. What has
moment of relative peace with most changed, in his view, is less Israel
of its neighbors, even as it experiences than the attitudes of others, including
intensifying conflicts at home. Washington—whose fecklessness and
Leading off the package are interviews withdrawal from the Middle East repre-
with two of Israel’s most powerful sent a real but manageable problem for
women: Ayelet Shaked, the current justice the Jewish state.
minister, and Tzipi Livni, a former justice Israelis disagreeing with one another is
minister and former foreign minister. hardly new. But the bitterness of today’s
Their contrasting visions starkly illumi- fights underscores the depth of the
nate the country’s current political divide. changes and choices facing the country.
Next, Aluf Benn, editor in chief of —Jonathan Tepperman, Managing Editor
Haaretz, describes Israel’s transforma-
tion through the story of Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s long career. A
moderate when circumstances required
Israel—at least the largely
secular and progressive
version of Israel that once
captured the world’s
imagination—is over.
—Aluf Benn
Amos Harel 43
Aluf Benn 16
Israel and the Post-American
Israel Among the Nations Middle East
Robert M. Danin 28 Martin Kramer 51
Return to Table of Contents
A
yelet Shaked is a relative For example, it allows them, in specific
newcomer to Israeli politics. circumstances, to prohibit a suspect from
Shaked, 40, served as Benjamin seeing a lawyer for 21 days. Things
Netanyahu’s office manager before like that.
breaking with the prime minister and
joining Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home What’s it like to be a leader of the Jewish
party in 2012 and then winning election Home—a political party known as the
to the Knesset in 2013. Following the main voice for religious settlers—as a
2015 election, Shaked was named Israel’s secular woman and Tel Aviv resident?
minister of justice. Since then, she has The fact that I was elected to my post
courted controversy with a number of in an open party primary shows that
moves that critics call undemocratic, Jewish Home voters are very open and
such as promoting a bill that would very liberal. I see my party as a bridge
highlight which nongovernmental organ- between the Orthodox and the secular.
izations (NGOs) get a majority of their We believe that we should all live
funding from foreign governments. together and respect one another.
Shaked, who worked as a software engi-
neer before entering politics, recently You currently serve under Prime Minister
spoke to Foreign Affairs’ managing editor, Netanyahu. You started your career
Jonathan Tepperman, in Tel Aviv. working for him directly but then broke
with him in 2012 and left Likud. What
You’ve been justice minister for a year are the main differences today between
now. Which accomplishments you are you and Netanyahu, you and Likud?
most proud of? The main difference between the Jewish
One is the nomination of judges. I’ve Home and Likud, apart from religion and
already nominated 100 judges [to fill vacant ideology, is that we object to a Palestinian
ILIA YE FIMOVICH / G ET TY IMAG ES
posts], which is a lot. Also, we are doing state, while Likud, and the prime
a lot of things to reform the legal system, minister, supported one.
to alleviate court backlogs, to reform the To return to your earlier question,
bankruptcy law. I’m trying to find any I’m also trying to promote Arab society
business regulations that I can relax. in Israel, by creating new courts in Arab
The transparency bill is also important, cities and appointing a woman as a qadi
but it hasn’t passed yet. And the terror [an Islamic judge, with jurisdiction over
family law] for the first time.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
2 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Niss as ipsunt eum, omniet
veliquatet eos res ut doler
omnihiliquis abora dem eos
aut labore lorem
Shaked in sipim.
Tel Aviv, February 2015
Ministering Justice
Are these reforms meant to address the by funding specific NGOs that serve
inequalities between Arab Israelis and their ideology.
Jewish Israelis?
There’s no inequality. According to the By “some countries,” do you mean the
law, everyone is equal. But of course, United States and Europe?
we need to invest more in some Arab Mainly Europe. And by the way, it’s not
towns. And the government just passed that [such funding] won’t be allowed. It’s
a big plan to do so. allowed in a democracy. But I think that
the public has the right to know about it.
So the problem is not one of legal
equality but one of resources? Critics say that the real point of the law
Yes, sometimes. But the government is is to shame these organizations by
now fixing that. And here in my ministry, making their members wear special
nine percent of employees are Arabs badges in the Knesset and by imposing
or Druze. a public label that would damage these
groups’ legitimacy.
To return to politics, there are rumors First of all, the badges aren’t part of
that the prime minister is trying to the law. But by the way, every lobbyist
create a big new party of the right, which in the Knesset needs to wear a badge.
would absorb all the smaller right-wing So even if the badges were in the law,
parties. What do you think of that? it wouldn’t be bad.
It’s not something we’ve really talked Second, it’s not about shaming. It’s
about. I don’t think it’s realistic. But about the right to know. That’s all.
we’d never rule anything out.
Do you feel that foreign governments
Some critics, including U.S. Ambassador should not be funding NGOs in Israel?
Dan Shapiro, have criticized the NGO I think that foreign governments should
transparency bill as an attempt to muzzle not fund political NGOs in Israel. I don’t
dissent. Why is the bill necessary? think that the U.S. administration would
Why publicly identify those NGOs that like it if Israel, for example, were to fund
get more than half of their support from an NGO in the United States that sued
foreign governments? American soldiers for their service
The amount of attention this bill is in Afghanistan.
getting is absurd. There are so many
other important things that we are Do you see the NGOs that would be
working on, yet for some reason, this targeted by the law, such as Breaking
bill gets so much attention. It’s just a the Silence, as foreign agents or threats
transparency bill. If an NGO gets more to Israel?
than half of its money from a foreign They are not threatening Israel. Our
government, it’s the right of the democracy is very strong; we can handle
citizens of Israel to know that. Why? them. But I think they are doing damage
Because some countries have found a to Israel outside the country, by spreading
way to interfere in the internal affairs a lot of lies and distorting the picture.
of Israel—not through diplomacy but Sometimes if you only tell half a truth,
4 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
it’s a lie. They take one specific case and
generalize it, depict it as if it shows the
way all soldiers behave. They’re doing it
on university campuses in the United
States. It’s causing damage to Israel.
#1 in
International
Would the legislation also affect groups
on the right?
I haven’t checked which NGOs would be
affected by the law. Relations
There will be four to five vacancies on the
Supreme Court next year, and you’ll get to
help nominate the replacements. You’ve
been quite critical of the court in the past
and have tried to limit its ability to over-
rule decisions by the executive or the
#1 in
Knesset. What role do you think a supreme
court should play in a democratic society?
Military
A very important role, of course. The
court’s job is to resolve disputes and
Studies
prevent the state from carrying out
actions that are illegal. I criticize the
court when it intervenes in matters of
policy, not in matters of law.
International
Do you have a problem in principle with
judicial review based on interpretation Security
of Israel’s Basic Laws? Setting the agenda for
No, I don’t. But I think that [the court] scholarship on international
should use that power very, very rarely, security affairs for forty years.
and only in very prominent cases where
there’s been a violation of the law—not
on questions of policy.
5
Ministering Justice
mittee. I’m the head of the committee, self-destruction reminds him of Germany
but there are three Supreme Court justices in the 1930s. How do you interpret such
on it as well, and we can’t make a selection criticisms?
without them. So the Supreme Court You have to distinguish between the
judges have a lot of influence over the two. First of all, Yair Golan [the IDF’s
selection of their replacements. deputy chief of staff] retracted what he
said and said there is no room for such
Would you like to change that? a comparison.
There are a few things we cannot do in Regarding [Freedom House], I want
this coalition. I’m not going to bang my to hear facts, not talk about atmosphere.
head against a wall. But we do favor a law Israel is one of the strongest democra-
that would give judges the formal power cies in the world, with close to absolute
to cancel a law. This power was never freedom of expression. You can see that
given to them by law; they just took it. by looking at our social networks.
But the law would also give the Knesset
the power to override the court, like So you don’t worry that any of the
Parliament can in Canada, for example. measures you’ve mentioned could chill
freedom of expression here?
But in Canada, Parliament can only No, and they’re not intended to.
overrule the court on constitutional
issues if it specifies that it is doing so What about the new bill that would allow
notwithstanding the court’s opposition. the suspension of Knesset members for
That acts as a check on Parliament. making anti-Zionist statements?
What we’re talking about in Israel is I don’t like this law, and I don’t support
requiring a big majority, more than it. I don’t think it’s necessary. I only voted
60 percent of the Knesset, to do so. for it out of coalition discipline. But it’s
unnecessary. I think that Knesset mem-
Aren’t you worried this could give rise bers should say whatever they want. And
to a tyranny of the majority? Because by the way, no one will use this law.
the purpose of an unelected judiciary
is to act as a check on the legislature You recently proposed extending Israeli
to prevent pure majoritarian rule. civil law to settlements in the West Bank.
I think that if you require a vote [to No. Don’t believe all the things that you
overrule the court] to pass by 65 per- read in the newspapers.
cent, then I don’t see the Knesset using Today in Israel, when a law is passed
this power very often. It will be a rare in the Knesset, the military authority in
occasion. Judea and Samaria has discretion over
how to apply it in the settlements. What
Freedom House recently downgraded I’ve proposed is that we set up a team
Israel’s standing due to what it claims are that would be manned both by the
new restrictions on the freedom of the Ministry of Justice and by the Ministry
press. And last week, the deputy chief of of Defense to immediately translate new
staff of the IDF said that the current laws into military regulations, rather than
climate of intolerance, violence, and letting it happen sporadically.
6 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
A Conversation With Ayelet Shaked
You’ve made it clear in the past that you the Shia and the Sunnis, and there are
favor annexation of large parts of the terror organizations all over. Israel really
West Bank—Area C, which is something is like a villa in the jungle. And the
like 61 percent of the territory. So it’s not situation in Judea and Samaria for the
surprising that some of your critics have Palestinians—OK, it’s not perfect, but
called this move a first step toward it’s OK. They are living their lives; they
annexation. Is there anything to that? are selecting their leaders. The situation
No. We aren’t talking about annexing could be far worse than it is now.
Judea and Samaria. The proposal has Second, I do believe in the historic right
been criticized because, like you, no one of the Jewish people to the land of Israel.
understands what it’s saying. Politicians
on the left want to use it to score poli- So how do you see the relationship
tical points. No one has bothered to with the Palestinians evolving? Aren’t
understand what I really meant. you worried that as conditions con-
tinue to deteriorate, their anger will
Speaking of annexation, what timeline continue to grow?
do you envisage? I don’t know if what you’re saying is
It’s not realistic today. What I’m saying true. Israel-Palestinian security coor-
is that the two-state solution will not dination is strong. I think that Israel
happen in the near future. The gaps and the international community need
between the Palestinians and the Israelis to invest in the economy of the Pales-
are much too big to bridge. Arafat, Abu tinians. Maybe this will help to weaken
Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas], Olmert, Hamas. I think if we are willing to
Barak—they all tried to do so many push for prosperity and to invest in a
times, and they failed. And the Gaza real economy, and if the international
withdrawal showed the Israeli public community would not just transfer
that even though we withdrew down money but give the Palestinians inde-
to the last inch, we only got terror. You pendent energy and stronger industry,
know, Einstein defined insanity as when it could help.
you do the same thing over and over I also support building a port for
again and expect different results. Gaza by building an island in the sea.
That’s why today the majority of
Israelis don’t think it’s realistic to establish Tell me a bit more about the situation of
a Palestinian state. So it’s not that I Arab Israelis. Do you feel that there are
think we can annex Area C today, but major problems there that need to be
I think it is something that we need addressed?
to talk about, to put on the table. I think that the government is now
doing the right things.
You make it sound like your objection to
the two-state solution is more practical But a lot of damage was done by the last
than ideological. government, which raised the threshold
It’s just not realistic. All the countries of votes needed for a party to enter the
around us are collapsing, and there is a Knesset.
huge battle in the Middle East between I supported leaving the situation as it
July/August 2016 7
Ministering Justice
was and not raising the threshold. That Sunni states. And part of the weapons
was unnecessary. But the goal was not to embargo on Iran will be removed in five
hurt the Arabs but rather to strengthen years. And [the Iranians] will now get a
the government. lot of money, so they will arm themselves.
Another threat is the nonconventional
Whatever the intentions were, that rule, arms race. Saudi Arabia and Egypt now
and the comments the prime minister see that Iran will have a bomb in ten years.
made during the last election about So they also want a bomb.
Arabs being bused in droves to polling
stations, created a lot of ill feeling among What about the broader international
the Arab Israeli population. Are the situation? Do you worry that Israel is
moves you’re making now an attempt to becoming more isolated internationally,
address that sense of alienation? because of the BDS [Boycott, Divestment,
Many politicians said worse things than and Sanctions] movement or because of
the prime minister did during the elec- the friction between the leadership here
tion. But we are doing what we’re doing and that in Washington?
because we think it’s the right thing to do. I believe that the U.S. administration—
it doesn’t matter which administration—
How do you assess Israel’s security will stand behind Israel in every bad
today? Some people argue that Israel is situation. The administration will under-
more secure than it’s ever been, because stand that Israel is its ally and the only
for the first time in its history, war with democracy in the Middle East.
an organized Arab army is impossible. And I expect the American adminis-
But others argue that the region is more tration to fight the BDS movement on
dangerous than ever, because of the university campuses.
fragility of Israel’s new Arab friends,
because of the Shiite-Sunni divide, The New York Times reported a few weeks
because of Iran, and because of ISIS. ago that tensions between Netanyahu
Which view is correct? and President Obama were now delaying
Both of them are correct. You are right: the passage of a huge new aid bill the
there is no threat that a big Arab army two countries are negotiating.
will invade Israel. But on the other hand, I can only say that I hope they will
there are many other threats. First of resolve it.
all, of course, is Iran and its bomb. The
agreement with Iran did two things. First, Do you ever worry that Israel is too
they will have a bomb in ten years. They dependent on the United States?
will have a bomb. It’s just a matter of a The support of the United States is
decision. In ten years, if they decide to very important. But I’m not worried
have a bomb, they’ll have one a few months that someday we might need to get
later. This is a huge threat to Israel. along without it. If that does happen,
The other bad thing about this we will succeed. But I don’t see it
agreement is that it caused an arms race happening. I hope it won’t.∂
in the Middle East. The United States
wants to give more arms to moderate
8 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
ethical,
intelligent
global
leaders
shaping
the face of
research
T
zipi Livni has been called the your view of reality depends on which
most powerful woman in Israel of these two views of Israel you hold.
since Golda Meir. Born to a
prominent right-wing family, Livni Does that mean Israel is now more
spent several years working for the polarized than ever before?
Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence Yes, yes. It started before the last
service, before entering politics. In election, but the election crystallized the
the decades since, she has held eight idea—quoting Netanyahu—that there’s
different cabinet posts—including a gap between these two camps. He was
minister of justice and minister of right then. And the things that he and
foreign affairs—and undergone a his government have done since then have
dramatic ideological evolution. First made this gap grow wider. Those that
elected to the Knesset as a member are not in the government feel that what
of Likud, in 2005 she joined Kadima, is happening is completely against our
a new centrist party founded by then understanding of what Israel is, what
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. A staunch its values are, what Judaism is, what
supporter of the peace process, Livni democracy is.
created her own party, Hatnua, in 2012
and then joined forces with Labor to Is Israeli democracy in decline?
form the Zionist Union before the 2015 We are fighting to keep Israel a
election. Now a leading member of democracy—not just in terms of its
the opposition, Livni recently spoke electoral system but also in terms of its
to Foreign Affairs’ managing editor, values. A lot of those on the other side
Jonathan Tepperman, in Tel Aviv. see democracy only as a question of who
is the majority. This is why they are trying
When you speaks to Israelis today, to weaken the role of the Supreme Court.
you’re apt to hear one of two competing And this is why Netanyahu wants to
narratives. According to the first, things control the press.
are better than ever: the economy is In a democracy, you need to have a
thriving, most of Israel’s enemies are in strong judicial system. You need free-
U RI EL SINAI / G ET TY IMAG ES
disarray, and the current government dom of speech, you need art, and you
reflects the will of the people. need a free press. And all these things
The other narrative is the complete are under threat right now. We in the
opposite: the region is more dangerous opposition need to fight for these values.
than ever, Israel faces growing interna- We need to push the idea that democ-
racy is a matter of values, and not just
This interview has been edited and condensed. the rule of the majority.
10 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Niss as ipsunt eum, omniet
veliquatet eos res ut doler
omnihiliquis abora dem eos
aut labore
Livni in Tellorem sipim.
Aviv, January 2013
Anger and Hope
Do you think you can win this battle? one leader, one party, and not spread
The right has controlled Israeli politics their votes all over. But as time passes,
for years now. The current government people’s despair is growing. So it depends
is the most hard-line in Israel’s history. on us. What I’m trying to do right now
Netanyahu seems to have very few is to say, let’s put on the table our basic
plausible challengers. Given all of that, vision for the future of the state of
plus the country’s changing demo- Israel. Not a specific platform, but a
graphics, plus the public’s frustration general view of what needs to be done
with the peace process, plus the chaos about peace and security. And let’s
in the region, can the left or the center speak about the nature of Israel as a
really make a comeback? Jewish democratic state. It’s not more
The good thing about having a govern- Jewish and less democratic, or more
ment like this one is that it makes every- democratic and less Jewish. And of course
thing very clear. The more bluntly they we have to share our views about the
speak, the easier it becomes to rally the economy and society.
support of our own camp. We need to put it all on the table,
What we need to do now is to go to not only for voters but also for the
our base and say, “Listen, it’s now clear heads of the different parties. They also
what this government represents. If they need to make a choice. Everybody
continue, they will take us to the point needs to take a side.
of no return in the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. They will change the nature Ever since 1996, Netanyahu has said
of Israeli democracy.” openly that the way to create a perma-
nent right-wing government in Israel is
And is your own camp big enough to win to change the elite—not just by working
an election? through politics but by creating new think
It’s 50-50—for now. You are right: Israel tanks, changing the media, changing
is changing in terms of demographics. culture, all to replace the old secular
But when [the government] says that the Ashkenazi elite with a new, more
majority rules, they’re wrong, because Sephardic, religious, right-wing one.
Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett So said the Ashkenazi leader.
represent a minority in Israel. Their
ideology of a Greater Israel, and an Israel Well, that is an irony. But is he succeeding?
that’s more Jewish than it is democratic— For me, this is not a problem. I know
that’s a minority opinion here. What we how [the right] feels, OK? I was there.
need to do is to find and speak to those I was born to parents who were not
who are our natural partners. accepted by the establishment in the
days when the state of Israel was created.
But success also requires leadership And those Jews who came from Arab
among the various parties in the center states were also not accepted. They felt
and on the left, right? They must be that the establishment patronized
prepared to join forces. them. I can understand that feeling.
It requires that voters understand that So giving more attention to Sephardim
in order to win, they need to work with and everything—it’s more than OK. It’s
12 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
A Conversation With Tzipi Livni
necessary. But what Likud is doing now serve my ideology and my voters? So
is just what was once done to them. the question is, will joining the govern-
And it’s even more problematic than ment allow us to implement our vision,
that, because they’re trying to delegiti- or serve Netanyahu’s vision?
mize those that criticize the government. To answer that, you have to ask, if
Netanyahu is using the resentment of we joined the government, would it be
those who felt patronized by the old to create a true unity government or
elite to shut the mouths of those who just a broader coalition for Netanyahu?
criticize him. Those are two different things. Unity
governments are based on an under-
Is there a significant difference between standing among the major parties that
what he wants and what his allies, like there are things we can agree on and
Bennett and Shaked and Regev, want? implement together. This is not what
For Netanyahu, it’s not about ideology. Netanyahu is proposing. He is talking
It’s about using the feelings of those who about a broader coalition to help him
were patronized in the past to say, “OK, and his natural partners.
now we are taking over, and you will So I’m against it, because it would
get our support.” betray our voters and what I believe in.
For the others you mentioned, it is
about ideology. So they and Netanyahu Would you be prepared to leave the
have different reasons for doing what party if it joined the government?
they do, but the outcome is the same. I have my own party.
For us, it’s about keeping Israel a
Jewish democratic state. The only way to Then would you leave the Zionist Union,
do that is by dividing the ancient land of your coalition with Labor?
Israel into two different states. If we fail I hope that will not happen, but yes.
to do so, or if we annex the territories, What’s the use of being in politics if it
we will face a clash between Israel as a means serving someone else’s vision?
democracy and Israel as a Jewish state. You asked me before about Netanyahu,
A vast majority of Israelis want to whether he thinks like the Jewish Home
keep Israel a democracy. If you asked or he thinks like us. I’d answer by quoting
them, they might say that they are right that old line: “Tell me who your friends
wing. But if the next question was, are, and I’ll tell you who you are.”
would you support a two-state solution
with security? they would say yes. Let’s return to the peace process. You’ve
spoken in the past about the dangers
A moment ago, you spoke about the of not doing anything to address the
need to convince voters of the stakes situation. But given the disarray on the
involved in choosing you instead of the Palestinian side, and the fact that Abu
right. Yet as we speak, the leader of your Mazen’s [Mahmoud Abbas’] days are
own coalition is in talks with the prime numbered, what can be done?
minister about forming a national unity Israel needs to decide which road we
government. What do you think of this? want to take; we need to decide on our
My responsibility is to ask, how can I destination. If the destination is Greater
July/August 2016 13
Anger and Hope
Israel, it doesn’t matter whether there’s and take steps that would serve their
a partner on the other side. interests as well?
But if your destination is a secure And we need to work completely
Israel that is Jewish and democratic, differently with the international com-
then it can’t be on the entire land. That munity. We have lost their trust by
is our GPS setting. To get there, we’d speaking about two states but then
prefer to have an agreement with the acting in ways that serve the vision of
Palestinians, because that is the way to a Greater Israel.
create a secure border, a demilitarized There are certain interests that
Palestinian state, and an end to the nobody in Israel would give up. Security:
conflict. Because you can’t end the a Palestinian state should be demilita-
conflict without their consent. rized. And the major settlement blocs
And if we cannot end the conflict would become part of Israel.
tomorrow morning, let’s at least start
moving toward our goal. That means Is there anyone to negotiate with on
not doing things that take you in the the other side, or does this have to wait
opposite direction. Netanyahu says his until a new Palestinian leader replaces
destination is two states for two peoples. Abu Mazen?
But he’s going in the other direction. I’d prefer to work with them directly.
But if they are not willing, let’s start
So what do you propose? working also with the international
First, we need to win the trust of the community.
international community and the
Palestinians by saying this is where we Do you see unilateral separation as a last
want to go. Not for you, not as a favor option, if necessary?
to the United States. But because it’s As long as it moves us toward a two-state
in our own interests. solution. We can act with the Pales-
Second, we would stop doing things tinians or without the Palestinians. But
that serve the different vision for the unilateralism would not bring us to the
state of Israel. end of the conflict.
14 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
A Conversation With Tzipi Livni
money or weapons. They also give us understanding. We share the same view
legitimacy to act against terror; they of extreme Islamists, of terrorist organi-
have their veto on the Security Council. zations, of Iran.
Somebody recently said to me that But the glass ceiling that’s
for the United States, Israel is becom- constraining relations between Israel
ing just another state. That’s not good and the Arab Sunni world is the Israeli-
news. Netanyahu and others in the Palestinian conflict.
government say that foreign attitudes So our strategy should be a dual
have nothing to do with what we do strategy: On the one hand, we should
but are based on who we are: the world act against the extremists, against Hamas.
is anti-Semitic, so they will hate us no But on the other, we need to help those
matter what we do. that are willing to work with us by
What I would say is that there is making all those gestures I mentioned
anti-Semitism in the world, but not earlier. I have had discussions with Arab
everybody is anti-Semitic. And instead League representatives about this. I asked,
of giving the anti-Semites an opportunity “Is this a take-it-or-leave-it deal?” And
to further isolate us, let’s isolate them. they said, “It’s negotiable.” I said, “Great.
Let’s build a wall between them and Should I negotiate with you?” And they
those that are criticizing Israel because said, “No. Negotiate with the Pales-
of its policies or because they don’t tinians.” So in the end, it’s all connected.
understand us.
You sound surprisingly optimistic,
Do you worry that Israel is too dependent given what’s happening here and in
on the United States? your neighborhood.
The United States is the anchor. I also I’m not optimistic, but without hope,
believe that we should have better rela- you can’t survive in this swamp called
tions with Europe; we need to work politics.
with everybody. But the United States I once heard a story about a Western
is the anchor. doctor working in Africa who worked
24/7 with victims of terrible atrocities.
Looking at all the recent changes in Someone asked him, “Where do you
Israel’s region, do you see other oppor- find the strength to keep doing this night
tunities, as well as threats? For example, and day?” “Two words,” he said, “anger
relations with the Sunni monarchies and hope.”
have never been better. And the Arab I have both.∂
Peace Initiative is still on the table. Is
that worth exploring?
Yes. The original idea behind Israel
was to take the Jewish people out of a
ghetto and create a sovereign, indepen-
dent state. So Israel shouldn’t be a new
ghetto, a big ghetto in the Middle East.
There are opportunities here. We
and the Sunni Arab states share an
July/August 2016 15
Return to Table of Contents
I
srael—at least the largely secular dissidents who dare criticize the
and progressive version of Israel occupation and expose its abuses are
that once captured the world’s denounced by officials, and the gov-
imagination—is over. Although that ernment has sought to pass new laws
Israel was always in some ways a fan- restricting their activities. Arab-Jewish
tasy, the myth was at least grounded in relations within the country have hit a
reality. Today that reality has changed, low point, and Israel’s society is break-
and the country that has replaced it is ing down into its constituent tribes.
profoundly different from the one its Netanyahu thrives on such tribalism,
founders imagined almost 70 years ago. which serves his lifelong goal of replacing
Since the last elections, in March 2015, Israel’s traditional elite with one more
a number of slow-moving trends have in tune with his philosophy. The origins
accelerated dramatically. Should they of all these changes predate the current
continue, they could soon render the prime minister, however. To truly under-
country unrecognizable. stand them, one must look much further
Already, the transformation has back in Israel’s history: to the country’s
been dramatic. Israel’s current leaders— founding, in 1948.
headed by Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, who metamorphosed after THE OLD MAN AND THE NEW JEW
the election from a risk-averse conservative Modern Israel was created by a group of
into a right-wing radical—see democracy secular socialists led by David Ben-
as synonymous with unchecked majority Gurion, who would become the state’s
rule and have no patience for restraints first prime minister. “The Old Man,”
such as judicial review or the protection as he was known, sought to create a
of minorities. In their view, Israel is a homeland for a new type of Jew: a
Jewish state and a democratic state—in warrior-pioneer who would plow the
that order. Only Jews should enjoy full land with a gun on his back and then
rights, while gentiles should be treated read poetry around a bonfire when the
with suspicion. Extreme as it sounds, battle was won. (This “new Jew” was
this belief is now widely held: a Pew mythologized, most memorably, by Paul
Newman in the film Exodus.) Although
ALUF BENN is Editor in Chief of Haaretz. a civilian, Ben-Gurion was a martial
Follow him on Twitter @alufbenn. leader. He oversaw the fledgling state’s
16 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
The End of the Old Israel
July/August 2016 17
Aluf Benn
respect dissent and debate. As prime that could be managed but would never
minister, therefore, he always defended be resolved. The West—which, in his
judicial independence, and he refrained view, was anti-Semitic, indifferent, or
from purging Labor loyalists from the both—couldn’t be counted on to help,
top echelons of the civil service and the and so Israel’s leaders were duty bound
IDF. As a consequence, his revolution, to prevent a second Holocaust through
important though it was, was only a a combination of smart diplomacy and
partial one. Under Begin’s leadership, military prowess. And they couldn’t
Israel’s old left-wing elite lost its cabinet afford to worry about what the rest of
seats. But it preserved much of its the world thought of them. Indeed, one
influence, holding on to top positions of Netanyahu’s main domestic selling
in powerful institutions such as the points has always been his willingness
media and academia. And the Supreme to stand up to established powers,
Court remained stocked with justices whether they take the form of the U.S.
who, while officially nonpartisan, president or the UN General Assembly
nevertheless represented a liberal (where Netanyahu served as Israel’s
worldview of human and civil rights. representative from 1984 to 1988 and
first caught his nation’s attention).
BIBI’S BAPTISM Netanyahu loves lecturing gentiles in
Although Likud has governed Israel for his perfect English, and much of the
most of the years since then, the left’s Israeli public loves these performances.
ongoing control over many other facets He may go overboard at times—as
of life has given rise to a deep sense of when, last October, he suggested that
resentment on the right. No one has Adolf Hitler had gotten the idea to kill
felt that grievance more keenly than Europe’s Jews from Amin al-Husseini,
Netanyahu, who long dreamed of finishing the grand mufti of Jerusalem during
Begin’s incomplete revolution. “Bibi,” World War II. Historians of all stripes
as Netanyahu is known, first won the scoffed at the claim, but many ordinary
premiership in 1996, but it would take Israelis were indifferent to its inaccuracy.
him decades to accomplish his goal. During his first term, Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s initial election came connected his domestic and international
shortly after the assassination of Rabin. agendas by blaming the leftism of Israel’s
The years prior to Rabin’s death had been old elite for the country’s foreign policy
dominated by the Oslo peace process mistakes. To prevent more missteps in
between Israel and the Palestine Libera- the future, he borrowed a page from the
tion Organization (PLO), and that same U.S. conservative playbook and vowed to
peace process would become the focus fight the groupthink at Israel’s universities
of his successor’s first term as well. and on its editorial boards—a way of
Netanyahu opposed Oslo from the thinking that, he argued, had led the
very beginning. Then as now, he saw country to Oslo. In a 1996 interview
Israel as a Jewish community besieged with the Haaretz columnist Ari Shavit,
by hostile Arabs and Muslims who wanted Netanyahu complained about his dele-
to destroy it. He considered the Arab- gitimization “by the nomenklatura of the
Israeli conflict a perpetual fact of life old regime,” adding that “the problem
18 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
The End of the Old Israel
Changing of the guard: Netanyahu at a memorial service for Ben-Gurion, November 2014
is that the intellectual structure of Israeli Both Barak, a decorated former head
society is unbalanced.” He pledged to of the IDF, and Sharon, who replaced
create new, more conservative institutions Netanyahu at the helm of Likud and
to rewrite the national narrative. became prime minister himself in 2001,
But Netanyahu’s political inexperi- represented a return to the Ben-Gurion
ence worked against him. His tenure was model of farmer turned soldier turned
rocked by controversy, from his reckless statesman. Their ascent thus restored the
provocations of the Palestinians and of old order—at least temporarily—and made
Jordan to a scandal caused by his wife’s Netanyahu seem like a historical fluke.
mistreatment of household employees.
Israel’s old elites closed ranks, and, with A MODERATE MASK
the support of the Clinton administra- But Netanyahu saw things differently,
tion, they forced Netanyahu into another and he spent the next decade plotting
deal with the Palestinian leader Yasir his return to power. Following Sharon’s
Arafat. The 1998 Wye River memoran- reelection in 2003, Netanyahu become
dum—the last formal agreement that finance minister, although he resigned
AMI R COH EN / REUTE RS
Israel and the Palestinians have signed on the eve of the August 2005 unilateral
to this day—triggered early elections in pullout from Gaza. When Sharon created
May 1999, after several small, hard-right a new centrist party, Kadima (Forward),
parties abandoned Netanyahu’s coalition shortly after the withdrawal, Netanyahu
in protest. Barak and the Labor Party took over the remnants of Likud. But
emerged victorious. he lost the next election, in March 2006,
July/August 2016 19
Aluf Benn
to Ehud Olmert, who had replaced the firebrand who’d been voted out of office
ailing Sharon as head of Kadima. a decade before, however, and fearing
Olmert had pledged to follow through pressure from the new U.S. president,
on his mentor’s vision by withdrawing Barack Obama, he once again was forced
Israel from most of the West Bank. to shelve his long-term plans for elite
But in July, his plans were disrupted replacement. Instead of undermining
when he let Hezbollah draw him into his enemies, he shifted to the center,
a pointless and badly managed war in recruiting several retired Likud liberals
Lebanon. His subsequent effort to to vouch for the “new Bibi” and join his
negotiate a comprehensive peace deal cabinet, and forging a coalition with
with the Palestinians, launched in Labor under Barak, who stayed on as
Annapolis, Maryland, in late 2007, defense minister (a job he’d held under
led nowhere. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s Olmert). Together, Netanyahu and
credibility and popularity were boosted Barak spent much of the next four years
that same year when Hamas, well armed working on an ultimately unrealized
with rockets, seized control of Gaza— plan to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.
just as he’d predicted. So when Olmert In June 2009, ten days after Obama’s
announced his resignation over corruption Cairo address, Netanyahu sought to
charges in the summer of 2008 (he reinforce his new centrist credentials
ultimately went to jail earlier this year by endorsing the idea of Palestinian
on different charges), Netanyahu was statehood in a speech. True to form,
ready to pounce. however, the prime minister imposed a
His revival was further aided by the condition: the Palestinians would first
sudden appearance in 2007 of what have to recognize Israel as a Jewish
would become the most important of state. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian
what Netanyahu called independent president, instantly rejected the idea.
sources of thought. Israel Hayom (Israel But the move enhanced Netanyahu’s
Today) is a free daily newspaper owned moderate credentials anyway.
by the American casino magnate And it helped get Obama off his
Sheldon Adelson, and ever since its back—but not before the U.S. president
launch, it has provided Netanyahu with convinced Netanyahu to accept a ten-
a loud and supportive media megaphone. month freeze on new residential con-
By 2010, Israel Hayom had become the struction in the West Bank settlements.
country’s most-read weekday newspaper, The freeze was meaningless, however,
printing 275,000 copies a day. And its since it didn’t change the facts on the
front page has consistently read like ground or facilitate serious peace talks.
Bibi’s daily message: lauding his favor- And soon after it expired, Republicans
ites, denouncing his rivals, boasting won control of the House of Represen-
about Israel’s achievements, and down- tatives in the U.S. midterm election,
playing negative news. creating a firewall against any further
With Olmert out of the picture, pressure from Washington. Obama
Netanyahu returned to office on soon lost interest in the thankless peace
March 31, 2009. Eager to prove that process. Although his rocky relationship
he was no longer the scandal-plagued with Netanyahu led to many juicy
20 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Oxford University Press, 2015 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016 Yale University Press, 2016 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016
Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2014 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2014 Cornell University Press, 2015 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2012
Transitional Justice in the Middle East Inside the Islamic Republic: Social Change in
and North Africa Post-Khomeini Iran
Edited by Chandra Sriram Edited by Mahmood Monshipouri
Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016
The Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS) at Georgetown University-Qatar is a premier
research institute devoted to the academic study of regional and international issues through dialogue and
exchange of ideas, research and scholarship, and engagement with scholars, opinion makers, practitioners, and
activists. To contribute to the existing body of knowledge on issues related to the Persian Gulf region and the
Middle East, CIRS sponsors empirically-based research initiatives and publishes original books in these areas.
cirs.georgetown.edu
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JANUARY AND JULY.
The End of the Old Israel
newspaper and magazine stories, it had the incumbent’s experience and savvy,
little effect on Israel’s internal politics, and after reengaging with his right-
since most Israelis also distrusted the wing base and merging with another
U.S. president, and still do; a global conservative party led by former Foreign
poll released in December 2015 found Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu
that Obama had a lower favorability won the election.
rating in Israel than almost anywhere In the summer of 2014, following
else, with only Russians, Palestinians, one last push for peace with Abbas
and Pakistanis expressing greater (this time led by U.S. Secretary of State
disapproval. John Kerry), war broke out between
Any remaining pressure on Netanyahu Israel and Hamas. The discovery of
to pursue peace with the Palestinians dozens of tunnels dug by Hamas into
evaporated soon after the Arab Spring Egyptian and Israeli territory put
erupted. Hosni Mubarak’s regime in another big scare into the Israeli public
Egypt collapsed, threatening a cornerstone and prompted a prolonged ground
of Israel’s security strategy; Syria sank operation—the bloodiest conflict of
into a bloody civil war; and a terrifying the Netanyahu era. During 50 days of
new nemesis, the Islamic State (also fighting, more than 2,000 Palestinians
known as ISIS), appeared on the scene. and 72 Israelis, mostly soldiers, were
These events unexpectedly bolstered killed. Israel’s Jewish population over-
Israel’s position in several ways: Russia whelmingly supported the war, but the
and the United States ultimately joined fighting caused communal tensions in
forces to eliminate most of Syria’s chemical the country to explode. Thousands of
weapons, and the conservative govern- Arab Israelis—who identified with the
ments of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United suffering in Gaza and were tired of
Arab Emirates, and (after the 2013 their own abuse by the police and their
counterrevolution) Egypt strengthened increasing marginalization under
their ties with Jerusalem (albeit unofficially Netanyahu—protested against the war.
in most cases). But the regional carnage Hundreds were arrested, and other
and turmoil horrified Israeli voters, Arabs employed in the public sector
who told themselves: if this is what were reportedly threatened with firing
the Arabs are capable of doing to one after criticizing the conflict on Facebook.
another, imagine what they would do
to us if we gave them the chance. THE NEW RIGHT
Nonetheless, peace and security Around the same time, personal ani-
played an uncharacteristically minor mosities within Netanyahu’s coalition
role in the next election, in January started to pull it apart. Netanyahu was
2013. Instead, the race was dominated unable to prevent Israel’s parliament,
by social issues, including the rapidly the Knesset, from electing Reuven
rising costs of housing and food staples Rivlin, a longtime Likud rival, to the
in Israel. Such concerns helped usher largely symbolic presidency. And
in a new class of freshman politicians, several of the prime minister’s erstwhile
who replaced old-timers such as Barak. allies, including Lieberman, endorsed a
But none of them was able to overcome bill that would have forced Israel Hayom
July/August 2016 21
Aluf Benn
to start charging its readers. (The bill cohesive alliance with several smaller
never made it past a preliminary hearing.) center- and far-right parties.
In December, the government finally Choosing Herzog would have
collapsed, and the Knesset called an created a wider coalition and allowed
early election. Netanyahu to show a more moderate
Likud went into the 2015 race face to the world. But the prime minister,
trailing in the polls. The public was who was sick of acting like a centrist,
angry with Netanyahu over a small- picked the latter course instead. That
time financial scandal involving his left him with a very narrow, one-seat
wife and over the stalemated result majority in the Knesset. But it also gave
of the war with Hamas. The Zionist him his first undiluted hard-right govern-
Union, a new centrist coalition led by ment since his 2009 comeback—one
Labor’s Isaac Herzog, seemed poised that would finally allow him to realize
to form the next government. But the his long-deferred dream of remaking
uncharismatic Labor leader proved no Israel’s establishment.
match for his wilier, more experienced Although Netanyahu is both secular
adversary. Netanyahu tacked right— and Ashkenazi, his new allies are mostly
scoring an unprecedented invitation to Mizrahim—long ostracized from Israel’s
address the U.S. Congress (which he centers of power, even though they
used to denounce the nuclear deal the represent a large segment of the Jewish
Obama administration was negotiating population—and religious Zionists, who
with Iran) and stealing votes from smaller are known for their knitted yarmulkes, are
conservative parties by promising not to fiercely committed to (and often live in)
allow a Palestinian state to be established West Bank settlements, and have, in recent
on his watch. Then, on election day, he years, come to hold many prominent
released a video in which he claimed that positions in the army, the security services,
“Arab voters are heading to the polling and the civil service.
stations in droves. Left-wing NGOs are These groups are most vocally
bringing them in buses.” The statement represented by three members of the
wasn’t true, but it effectively tapped into current government: Likud’s Miri Regev,
Jewish voters’ anxiety and racism and won the minister of culture; Naftali Bennett,
Likud the election: Likud emerged with the minister of education and head of
30 seats; the Zionist Union earned 24. Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home), a
In Israel’s fractious parliamentary religious Zionist party that he built out of
system, votes alone don’t determine who the ashes of the old National Religious
takes power, however; that gets decided Party; and Ayelet Shaked, Bennett’s
during the coalition-building process that longtime sidekick and now the minister
inevitably follows each election. In this of justice. Regev is Sephardic—her family
case, the electoral math left Netanyahu, came to Israel from Morocco—and a
who was 31 seats short of a majority, former brigadier general in the IDF,
with two choices: he could form a where she served as chief spokesperson
national unity coalition with Herzog during the Gaza pullout. Bennett, the
and the ultra-Orthodox, or he could son of American immigrants, served in
forge a narrow but ideologically the Israeli special forces and then made
22 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
The End of the Old Israel
July/August 2016 23
Aluf Benn
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is doing his Bank and inside Israel. The first intifada
part as well. After last year’s election, (1987–93) was characterized by mass
he insisted on holding on to the com- protests and stone throwing; during the
munications portfolio himself, giving second intifada (2000–2005), organized
him the last word on any media-related Palestinian suicide bombings and large-
legislation. This move has given him scale military reprisals by Israel caused
unprecedented leverage over Israel’s thousands of casualties. This time, the
television and telecommunications so-called loners’ intifada has taken a
networks, which have grown leery of more privatized form. Acting on their
doing anything to alienate the prime own, young Palestinian men and women
minister. have used knives and homemade guns
Many of the government’s recent to attack Israeli military and police
actions, such as Regev’s promotion of checkpoints or civilians at flash points
Sephardic culture, seem designed to such as the settlements and Jerusalem’s
address the traditional disenfranchise- Old City. So far, 34 Israelis have died in
ment of Israel’s Mizrahim and citizens these assaults. Almost all the perpetrators
living in the country’s “periphery” have been arrested or shot on the spot—
(that is, far from the central Tel Aviv– to date, about 200 Palestinians have
Jerusalem corridor). Other measures been killed—but more have kept coming.
are aimed at promoting social mobility. The loners’ intifada has presented
Yet virtually all of them have had a clear the current government with its toughest
political goal as well: to reduce, if not test so far. Netanyahu has always claimed
eliminate, the domestic opposition to to be tough on terror and has portrayed
Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, his opponents as softies. Yet he and his
which Netanyahu and his allies want top aides have seemed clueless in the
to make permanent. By portraying the face of the rising violence. Instead of
shrinking peace camp and its supporters stanching the bloodshed, they have
as unpatriotic stooges of foreign anti- redoubled their attacks on those they
Semites, the government hopes to deem enemies within: human rights
delegitimize them and build a consen- groups and Arab Israeli politicians. And
sus around its hard-right policies. the center-left parties, worried about
The strategy seems to be working. looking unpatriotic, have gone along
One example: in a poll conducted last with him. In April, Herzog urged Labor
December of Israeli Jews, 53 percent of to “stop giving the impression that we
those surveyed supported outlawing are always Arab-lovers.” And Yair
Breaking the Silence, a veterans’ group Lapid, the head of the opposition Yesh
that aims to expose the harsh realities Atid (There’s a Future) party—another
of the occupation by publishing wrench- centrist faction—has called on the army
ing testimonials of soldiers who have and the police to ease their rules of
served in the West Bank. engagement and “shoot to kill whoever
takes out a knife or a screwdriver or
DAGGERS DRAWN whatever.” Highlighting the danger of
Late last summer, after years of relative such rhetoric, in late March, B’Tselem,
quiet, violence erupted in the West a respected human rights group,
24 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
released a video taken in Hebron
showing an Israeli soldier executing a
Palestinian suspect who had already “Rudel’s historical narrative
been shot and was lying, bleeding, on provides much food for thought”
the street. —The Foreign Service Journal
Instead of remorse, the Hebron
shooting unleashed a wave of ugly
nationalism among many Israeli Jews.
The military high command quickly
detained the soldier and declared his
action immoral, unlawful, and undisci-
plined. Yet in a public opinion poll
conducted several days after the inci-
dent, 68 percent of respondents sup-
ported the shooting, and 57 percent
said that the soldier should not face
criminal prosecution. Far-right politicians,
including Bennett, defended the killer,
and Netanyahu, who had initially sup-
ported the military brass, quickly closed
ranks with his right-wing rivals and Memoirs of an Agent for
called the shooter’s parents to express Change in International
his support. When Moshe Yaalon, the
defense minister, nonetheless insisted Development
on a criminal investigation, he was
roundly attacked on social media for his Ludwig Rudel
stand. After Netanyahu seemed to side
with Yaalon’s critics, their quarrel Rudel describes his unique experiences
escalated, and in May, Yaalon resigned. with US foreign economic aid programs
Announcing his decision, Yaalon (Iran Turkey, India) during some of the
most dramatic international events since
remarked, “I fought with all my might
World War II.
against manifestations of extremism,
violence, and racism in Israeli society, The Association for Diplomatic Studies
which are threatening its sturdiness and and Training (ADST.org) has selected this
also trickling into the IDF, hurting it.” memoir for inclusion in its “Memoirs and
That Yaalon of all people could be Occassional Papers” series.
subjected to such treatment shows just
how much Israel has changed in recent
years. A Likud leader and former IDF “a vibrant, first hand description
chief of staff, Yaalon is no leftist: he of the dynamics within the UN’s
supported Oslo but later changed his development agencies”
mind when, as the head of military —Ambassador John W. McDonald
intelligence, he witnessed Arafat’s Available at Amazon, BN.com, and Google Play
duplicity firsthand. Yet Yaalon believes
25
Aluf Benn
in the importance of a secular state and Olmert’s foreign minister and his
the rule of law. That marked him as one successor as the head of Kadima,
of the last of the Ben-Gurion-style old actually beat Netanyahu’s Likud in the
guard still in office. And those creden- 2009 election, winning 28 seats to
tials were enough to incite the online Likud’s 27. But she was unable to build
mob. It didn’t matter that he had an a large enough coalition to form the
impressive military record, opposed the next government, and her subsequent
peace process, or supported settlement weakness as opposition leader damaged
expansion. In Netanyahu’s Israel, her popular appeal.
merely insisting on due process for a Bennett is now trying to position
well-documented crime is now enough himself as a younger and more populist
to win you the enmity of the new elite version of his one-time mentor. There’s
and its backers. no doubt that Bennett is charismatic
and has grown quite popular. But he
THE PERMANENT PRIME MINISTER leads a small party with a limited base
One of the ways Netanyahu has retained that cannot win an election unless it
power for so long—he’s now Israel’s unites with Likud. Nir Barkat, the right-
second-longest-serving leader, after wing mayor of Jerusalem, is another
Ben-Gurion—has been by tailoring former high-tech entrepreneur who
his politics to match public opinion. harbors national aspirations. But he
In 2009, he leaned toward the center lacks charisma and remains unknown
because he feared Obama and wanted to the public outside Israel’s capital city.
to dispel his own reputation for reck- Netanyahu’s strongest current
lessness. In recent years, as the Israeli challenger is probably Lapid, the former
public has shifted rightward, so has columnist and TV anchor who established
he—which has allowed him to more Yesh Atid as a centrist party in 2012 and
openly indulge his true passions. won a spectacular victory in 2013, earning
Throughout this period, Netanyahu Yesh Atid the second-highest number
has benefited from one other key asset: of seats in the Knesset. Lapid joined
the lack of any serious challenger, either Netanyahu’s cabinet after he and Bennett
inside or outside Likud. Since returning forced the prime minister to drop the
to power in 2009, he has consistently ultra-Orthodox parties. But Netanyahu
beaten all other plausible candidates soon outmaneuvered him, pushing
for prime minister in public opinion Lapid to the Treasury—a well-established
polls—by large margins. Within Likud, graveyard for ambitious politicians, since
Netanyahu has managed to sideline a it often involves making unpopular
series of aspirants, such as Moshe moves such as raising taxes and cutting
Kahlon, Gideon Saar, and Silvan benefits. Lapid accomplished little while
Shalom. And the opposition has failed in office, and in 2015, after a tough fight
to produce a credible alternative of its with Herzog and his Zionist Union over
own. After leaving office in 2001, Barak the same voters, Yesh Atid lost almost
undermined his standing by adopting a half its seats. Since then, Lapid has
lavish lifestyle deemed unseemly for a improved his public standing—popularity
Labor leader. Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni, polls now put Yesh Atid second, after
26 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
The End of the Old Israel
July/August 2016 27
Return to Table of Contents
I
n 1996, Ehud Barak, who was then attacks in which drivers have intention-
Israel’s foreign minister and would ally rammed pedestrians with their
later serve as prime minister, charac- cars. Israel’s citizens feel more vulnerable
terized Israel as “a modern and prosper- in a personal sense, walking their
ous villa in the middle of the jungle.” streets, than they have since perhaps
Twenty years later, as political turmoil the 1948 War of Independence. Even
and violence engulf the Middle East, during the second intifada, the Pales-
that harsh metaphor captures better tinian revolt that lasted from 2000
than ever the way most Israelis see their until 2005 and claimed the lives of
country and its place in the region. more than 1,000 Israeli civilians, Jews
Their standard of living has never been believed they knew where it was safe to
higher. Their country’s economy is go and where it wasn’t. That’s not true
robust, and Israel’s entrepreneurial today: in a recent poll conducted by the
spirit remains the envy of the world. In Israel Democracy Institute, nearly 70
2015, Israel ranked as the planet’s percent of Israeli Jews surveyed said
fifth-happiest country on the Organiza- they greatly or moderately feared that
tion for Economic Cooperation and they or people close to them would be
Development’s Better Life Index, harmed by the wave of violence that
topped only by Denmark, Finland, has swept the country since last October.
Iceland, and Switzerland. In its first Meanwhile, chaos appears to loom
half century of existence, Israeli soldiers across almost every border. A bloody
fought a war virtually every decade and devastating civil war rages in Syria,
against well-armed conventional Arab where the regime of Bashar al-Assad
armies. Today, the threat of such a war and the jihadists of the Islamic State
has vastly diminished, and the Israeli (also known as ISIS) seem intent on
military has never been stronger, outdoing each other in brutality. Neigh-
both in absolute terms and relative to boring Jordan has long served as a
its neighbors. buffer of sorts to Israel’s east, but it is
now struggling under the burden of
ROBERT M. DANIN is Senior Fellow for hosting more than a million Syrian
Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign refugees. And ISIS and other jihadist
Relations and a Senior Fellow at the Belfer
Center at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. organizations roam the virtual no man’s
Follow him on Twitter @robertdanin. land of the Sinai Peninsula, which the
28 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel Among the Nations
July/August 2016 29
Robert M. Danin
briefly brought the anti-Zionist Muslim the 1950s, when it established warm
Brotherhood to power, the peace treaty ties with important non-Arab states
has proved durable and critical for both on the outer edges of the Middle East,
countries. Even the Islamist Egyptian such as Ethiopia, Iran, and Turkey.
president Mohamed Morsi acknowl- Since Israel’s strategic relationship with
edged the treaty’s importance and never Turkey broke down in 2010, Israel has
sought to challenge or abrogate it. When forged new partnerships with Cyprus
the military deposed Morsi in July 2013, and Greece, both bitter foes of the
Egyptian-Israeli ties grew stronger than Turkish government. Israel has also
ever, with both sides firmly aligning developed closer ties with a number of
against Hamas in Gaza, which is sand- African countries, which has allowed it
wiched between them. Egyptian and to increase its influence on the conti-
Israeli national security interests have nent and to interdict arms flows to
converged to such a degree that in 2014, militants in the Sinai and Gaza. And
when Hamas rocket attacks provoked an India—which, as a leader of the Non-
intense 50-day Israeli military campaign Aligned Movement, once kept Israel at
in Gaza, Egypt clearly sided with Israel arm’s length—has developed extensive
and even waved off U.S. efforts to bring commercial, military, and diplomatic
an early halt to the fighting. ties with the Jewish state in recent years.
In the post–Arab Spring period, Relations with Russia have also
Israel has also drawn closer to Jordan, improved markedly: indeed, Netanyahu
the country with which it shares its and Russian President Vladimir Putin
longest border. The open cooperation clearly enjoy a better relationship with
facilitated by the peace treaty that the each other than either does with U.S.
two countries signed in 1994 has proved President Barack Obama. Washington
crucial to Israel’s domestic and regional and Moscow have argued viciously over
security interests. Jordan has played an the civil war in Syria; Israel, in contrast,
instrumental role in helping defuse appears to have established some clear
tensions at the Jerusalem holy site known rules of the road with Russia for opera-
to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif, or the tions there. According to press reports,
Noble Sanctuary, and to Jews as the Russia even temporarily transferred
Temple Mount. Jordan is also helping some military officers to Israel’s military
absorb some spillover from the unrest headquarters in Tel Aviv in order to
roiling Iraq and Syria. Security coop- improve coordination and prevent acci-
eration between Israel and Jordan is dental clashes in the skies above Syria.
flourishing, particularly since both share
a common interest in securing Jordan’s UNCLEAR AND PRESENT DANGERS
border with Syria and in countering Despite such gains, Israel still faces
Islamists across the region. many threats and potential dangers,
Farther afield, Israel has also made and the country’s leaders can’t seem to
some new friends and strengthened ties agree on which are most pressing.
with old ones. In a sense, it has devel- President Reuven Rivlin, currently
oped a new version of the “periphery one of the country’s most popular and
doctrine” that the country pursued in widely respected officials, recently
30 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel Among the Nations
their proxies occupy that area. Israeli that requires Iran to significantly curtail
leaders see Iran as a rising revisionist its nuclear program in exchange for
power and have watched nervously as it relief from international sanctions. Yet
has built significant influence, if not many of Israel’s security professionals
quite dominance, in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, have adopted the view that the agreement,
and Yemen. although flawed, has pushed the Islamic
July/August 2016 31
Robert M. Danin
32 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
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Israel Among the Nations
States and Israel have no formal, would still allow Israel to maintain its
treaty-based alliance. There have been commitment to not ask for American
times when Israel seriously contemplated boots on the ground.
pushing for such an arrangement. But An alliance would offer significant
in each instance, it decided against doing benefits to Israel. First and foremost,
so, fearing that the price Washington it would provide an ironclad security
would likely demand—territorial conces- guarantee: any attack on Israel would
sions to the Arabs—would prove too high. be met and rebuffed by the United States.
Today, Israel’s ambivalence stems During the Iran imbroglio, Obama
from different factors. First, the Israelis repeatedly pledged that the United
fear that an alliance with the United States “will always have Israel’s back.”
States would force them to relinquish But he never specifically, publicly prom-
even more of their military indepen- ised to protect Israel against an Iranian
dence, potentially preventing them from attack. A treaty with Washington would
conducting certain military actions, ones ensure a lasting commitment of exactly
along the lines of the 2007 Israeli air that kind.
strike against an incipient Syrian nuclear A formal alliance would also allow
facility, which the Israelis undertook the Israelis to stop worrying, as they
after extensive consultations with the frequently do, about the contingent
United States but without American nature of their partnership with the
participation. An alliance would also United States. How much longer, they
challenge the idea of Israeli self-reliance, wonder, can Jerusalem safely rely on
which is central to the country’s de- Washington to maintain their informal,
fining ethos. quasi alliance? Many Israelis worry that
But as the dispute over Iran’s nuclear the two countries will drift further apart
program showed, when push comes to as each undergoes demographic, political,
shove, Israel is already willing to constrain and social changes. This may be happening
itself and accept a high level of depen- already. A poll recently conducted by
dence in order to protect its close rela- the Pew Research Center indicated that
tionship with the United States. And each U.S. generation is less sympathetic
other U.S. allies, such as Turkey, have toward Israel than its predecessor. There
initiated military actions when they is no guarantee that the strong pro-Israel
believed their national interests were consensus that has long been a bipartisan
threatened, regardless of Washington’s feature of U.S. politics will endure
views. A formal U.S.-Israeli alliance, forever. Now is therefore the time for
therefore, would not necessarily have a Israel to lock in the existing benefits
significant practical effect on Israeli of its relationship with Washington.
freedom of maneuver. Israel’s other
major reservation regarding an alliance TAKE THE INITIATIVE
stems from a belief that the United Closer to home, a second extremely
States backs Israel partly because the important opportunity for Israel to
Americans know that the Israelis will consider involves its relationships with
never ask U.S. soldiers to fight on a number of Arab states that have histor-
Israel’s behalf. But a formal alliance ically wanted nothing to do with it. In
July/August 2016 33
Robert M. Danin
ways unforeseen and largely unintended, to trade territory for peace, and took
Obama may have made a greater contri- every opportunity to portray the Arabs
bution to improving these relationships as inexorably hostile and belligerent.
than he ever thought possible. His efforts But the Arab wall of rejection
to pivot the United States away from cracked a decade later, when Egyptian
the Middle East while negotiating with President Anwar al-Sadat traveled to
Iran highlighted a number of interests Jerusalem and made peace. And the
that Israel shares with the Sunni Arab wall arguably crumbled altogether in
countries—the very same states Israel 2002, when the Arab League collec-
battled ferociously during the first tively endorsed a proposal put forward
50 years of its existence. by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah (who
In the last decade, the centuries- was king from 2005 until his death last
old Sunni-Shiite divide has grown year) that offered Israel the prospect of
into a chasm, fueled by—and, in turn, peace, security, and normal relations
fueling—the rivalry between the Sunni in exchange for a complete Israeli
Arab powers and an Iranian-led Shiite withdrawal to the pre-1967 borders, a
bloc. The sectarian split has replaced move the Arab states see as the only
the region’s traditional fault line—the way to begin resolving the Israeli-
Arab-Israeli conflict—and has begun to Palestinian conflict.
reorder the Middle East in surprising The Israelis had ample cause for
ways. Israel and the Sunni Arab states skepticism. First, the timing was poor.
now more clearly share a chief foe, in One day prior to the Arab League’s
Iran, and a sense of concern over U.S. endorsement of the plan, Israel suffered
retrenchment. a massive terrorist attack in which 30
Israel should leverage this change to Israelis in the coastal city of Netanya
shape a better future for itself among its were killed at a Passover Seder; the
neighbors. Some Israelis worry that the bloodshed left the country in no mood
Sunni Arab states may be too unstable to negotiate with its enemies. More
or unreliable to act as partners. But Israel substantively, the Israelis doubted that
should seize on their sense of weakness the Arabs could ever be flexible enough
and their openness to explore a formal on their demand for a “right of return”
peace initiative. for Palestinian refugees. And the Israelis
In September 1967, following the also believed that the Arabs were only
Arabs’ devastating defeat in the Six- pretending to reach out to them in order
Day War—during which Israel captured to curry favor with Washington so as to
all of Jerusalem and the west bank of gain leverage in the run-up to an antici-
the Jordan River—the Arab League pated U.S. invasion of Iraq, which the
convened in Khartoum, Sudan, and Arab states opposed.
issued its now-infamous declaration But the Arab Peace Initiative has
of what came to be known as “the three proved to be more than a tactical ploy:
no’s”: no peace with Israel, no recogni- for the past 14 years, the Arab League
tion of Israel, and no negotiations with has stood by it, even in the face of
Israel. Israel responded by casting intense public anger in the Arab and
itself as the reasonable party, willing wider Muslim world over Israel’s
34 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel Among the Nations
military actions in Lebanon and Gaza. the chaos and instability plaguing the
On the “right of return,” the Arabs have region, it’s not even clear how long the
called for “a just and agreed solution,” current Sunni Arab governments will
suggesting there may be some room for stay in power: Why negotiate with
flexibility. And in 2013, the league even them when they are so weak? Critics
made modifications to the plan to make also point out that the Palestinians
it more attractive to Israel: for example, seem unwilling or unable to conclude
the proposal now incorporates the notion a deal—so why give them a veto over
of negotiated land swaps between Israel Israel’s regional relations? The answer is
and the Palestinians, which shows that that talking with the Arabs might have
it is not a take-it-or-leave-it proposal. strategic benefits even if it fails to unlock
Emissaries from Egypt and Jordan have the stalemate with the Palestinians. Better
traveled to Israel on behalf of the Arab contacts between Israel and the Sunni
League to allay Israeli apprehensions. Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia,
Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former head of could help forge a more united front
Saudi intelligence and former ambassador against Iran. Israel could test the Arab
to the United States, has met publicly plan’s sincerity and in doing so open up
with prominent Israelis and reached out a channel to the broader Arab world by
to the Israeli public through interviews expressing a desire to negotiate with
with various Israeli media outlets. Saudi Arabia and other Arab League
Throughout, however, Turki has made states, while maintaining certain Israeli
it clear that there can be no progress in reservations about some of the plan’s
broader Arab-Israeli relations without elements. As one senior Israeli official
addressing the Palestinian issue. recently told me, “Never before have we
The Israeli government has yet to offer been offered so much while being asked
an official response to the plan, and Israel’s for so little in return.”
leaders have essentially ignored it. There
have been a few exceptions: Dan Meridor, NOTHING VENTURED . . .
a former Likud deputy prime minister, If Israel prefers not to deal with the Arab
and Yair Lapid, who leads the center-right Peace Initiative, then it should consider
party Yesh Atid, have both supported the offering up its own regional peace initia-
idea of considering the Arab initiative tive, which Netanyahu has declined to
under certain conditions. And a number do. Many Israelis, even within the prime
of former chiefs of the Mossad, the minister’s camp, have been frustrated
Israeli foreign intelligence service, by their leader’s passivity on this front.
including Danny Yatom and Meir Dagan, Indeed, Netanyahu’s tenure has been
have decried Israel’s lack of a positive defined not by right-wing extremism, as
response. But for the most part, the Arab many of Israel’s detractors claim, but by
plan has been met with Israeli silence. risk aversion. In his more than seven
After decades of bemoaning Arab rejec- years in power, Netanyahu has neglected
tionism, Israel now finds itself branded to articulate a vision—much less offer a
the rejectionist party itself—by the Arabs. clear plan—for how Israel could achieve
The staunchest Israeli critics of the peace and consolidate its security and
Arab Peace Initiative argue that given economic gains. Given the narrow right-
July/August 2016 35
Robert M. Danin
36 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Return to Table of Contents
W
hen the world focuses on the on the Israeli government to integrate
Arab-Israeli crisis today, Israel’s Arab citizens into existing
the plight of the 4.6 million political structures even as it demands
Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip greater autonomy in such areas as edu-
and the West Bank gets most of the cational and cultural policy. The goal
attention. But another pressing question would be a system that grants Jews and
haunts Israeli politics: the status and Arabs equality in shared institutions
future of Israel’s own Arab citizens, and protects the rights of both to shape
who number around 1.7 million and their own communities.
make up around 21 percent of its popu-
lation. Over the past few decades, Arabs LEFT OUT AND MOVING UP
in Israel have steadily improved their Israel’s Arab citizens are the descendants
economic lot and strengthened their of the approximately 150,000 Palestinians
civil society, securing a prominent place who stayed in the country following
in the country’s politics in the process. But the expulsion of the majority of their
since 2009, when Benjamin Netanyahu brethren around the time of Israel’s
began his second term as prime minister, establishment in 1948. Over the two
they have also seen their rights erode, decades that followed, Israel’s remain-
as the government has taken a number ing Arabs suffered from high rates of
of steps to disenfranchise them. Israeli poverty and low standards of living,
policymakers have long defined their state had few opportunities for education,
as both Jewish and democratic, but these and were governed by martial law, which
recent actions have shown that the govern- imposed various restrictions on them,
ment now emphasizes the former at the from limitations on domestic and inter-
expense of the latter. national travel to constraints on setting
This onslaught has triggered a debate up new businesses. To prevent the
among the leaders of the Arab commu- emergence of independent Arab centers
nity in Israel over how to respond. One of power, the Israeli government also
camp wants Arab citizens to deepen their closely supervised the activity of Arab
integration into mainstream society and municipal and religious institutions
and arrested many Arab activists.
AS’AD GHANEM is Associate Professor of Since 1966, when martial law was
Comparative Politics at the University of Haifa. lifted, the situation of Arab citizens has
July/August 2016 37
As’ad Ghanem
38 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel’s Second-Class Citizens
lines that exclude the Arab minority— that equality will be achieved when the
from a national anthem that famously state recognizes Arabs as equal Israeli
describes the yearning of a Jewish soul citizens and equitably integrates them
for a homeland in Zion to a flag that into existing institutions.
displays a Star of David. In these ways, For now, the latter approach seems
the Israeli government has maintained to be dominant among Arabs in Israel.
the dominance of the Jewish majority But even across this divide, there are a
and denied Arabs genuine equality. number of areas of consensus. Arabs of
Arabs in Israel thus confront a all political tendencies tend to condemn
frustrating confluence of factors: on the the government’s current policies as
one hand, they enjoy a rising socioeco- segregationist and discriminatory; many
nomic position; on the other, they face a also contend that the government’s
government that in many respects has professed commitments to democracy
prevented them from achieving true equal- and to the Jewish character of the state
ity. How they respond to this frustrating are irreconcilable. Nor are these the only
dynamic, and how the Israeli govern- points on which most Arabs agree: around
ment reacts, will have an enormous impact 71 percent of Arabs in Israel support
on the future of Israeli society, politics, a two-state solution to the Israeli-
and security. Palestinian conflict, according to a 2015
survey, and only 18 percent reject the
THE INTERNAL DIVIDE coexistence of Arabs and Jews in Israel.
Arabs in Israel are not politically mono- The various strains of Arab political
lithic, and their goals vary. Their civic thought were brought together in De-
organizations, political activists, and public cember 2006, when a group of Arab
intellectuals offer competing visions for activists and intellectuals published a
both the community’s internal develop- declaration, The Future Vision of the
ment and its relationship with the state. Palestinian Arabs in Israel, that sought to
Broadly speaking, however, their define Arabs’ relationship with the state
agendas tend to fall into one of two and their hopes for the country’s future.
frameworks, each based on a different The document, which I co-authored,
understanding of Arab Israelis’ split called on the Israeli government to
identity. The first—call it a “discourse of recognize its responsibility for the
difference”—suggests that Arabs’ ethno- expulsion of Palestinians around the
cultural identity, rather than their Israeli time of Israeli independence and to
citizenship, should be the starting point consider paying reparations to the
of their demands for change. By this descendants of the displaced; to grant
logic, the Israeli government should Arab citizens greater autonomy in
empower Arabs to autonomously govern managing their cultural, religious, and
their own communities, by, for example, educational affairs; to enshrine Arabs’
encouraging Arab officials to reform the rights to full equality; and, perhaps
curricula of Arab schools. The second—a most striking, to legally define Israel
“discourse of recognition”—takes Israeli as a homeland for both Arabs and Jews—
citizenship, rather than Arab identity, as its a direct challenge to the historically
starting point. This framework suggests Jewish character of the state.
July/August 2016 39
As’ad Ghanem
40 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel’s Second-Class Citizens
Speaking up: the Joint List leader Ayman Odeh at a protest in Tel Aviv, October 2015
seven percentage points, from 56.5 percent Jewish threats to Muslim holy sites in
in the 2013 election to 63.5 percent in Jerusalem. And in February of this year,
2015. This surge suggests that Arabs in after three Arab parliamentarians visited
Israel have become more confident that the families of Palestinians who were killed
their elected representatives can overcome after attacking Israelis, Jewish lawmakers
their differences and act as an effective introduced a so-called suspension bill that
united force in the Israeli establishment— would allow a three-fourths majority of the
in short, that national politics offer a path Knesset to eject any representative deemed
toward change. At least when it comes to have denied the Jewish character of the
to parliamentary representation, right- state or incited violence. The Arab popu-
wing efforts to impede the progress of lation views the proposed law as a direct
the country’s Arabs have not succeeded. attempt to sideline their representatives
Rather than accept this show of on the national stage. “Despite the delegit-
strength, Netanyahu’s coalition responded imization campaign against us and the
with further measures meant to weaken raising of the electoral threshold, we
AMI R COH EN / REUTE RS
July/August 2016 41
As’ad Ghanem
42 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
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S
oon after Benjamin Netanyahu Israel now faces. The conventional threat
began his second term as Israel’s once posed by the Syrian military has
prime minister in March 2009, almost completely disappeared, only to
he ordered the country’s military to be replaced by the appearance of more
develop a plan for a unilateral military terrorists on another of Israel’s borders.
strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The At the same time, since October
air force and the intelligence branch 2015, the conflict with the Palestinians
went to work immediately; according to has flared up, with teenagers from the
Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu’s predecessor, West Bank carrying out “lone wolf”
the preparations alone would ultimately knife and gun attacks. The Israeli
cost the country nearly $3 billion. military’s response to the violence has
Israel never carried out the attack, raised thorny questions about its code
of course, and in retrospect, Netanyahu of conduct and laid bare the broader
and Ehud Barak, then Israel’s defense divisions—between right and left, and
minister, may never have seriously between religious and secular Jews—
considered launching one. But U.S. that are transforming the Israel Defense
President Barack Obama took the threat Forces and the country itself. At the
seriously enough to toughen sanctions same time that the IDF must confront
against Iran in response. By bringing external threats, then, Israel’s internal
the Iranian economy to its knees, the problems are falling on its shoulders.
sanctions paved the way for the election
of President Hassan Rouhani, a relative UNSWORN ENEMIES?
moderate who pushed through the inter- Shortly before Gadi Eisenkot became the
national agreement that has since put IDF’s chief of staff in February 2015, he
Iran’s nuclear program on hold for the met with Dan Meridor, a former member
next decade. of Netanyahu’s security cabinet. “You’re
Since then, Israel’s security agencies going to command an exceptional army,”
have been able to refocus their attention Meridor told me he told Eisenkot. “You
only have one problem: there are no
AMOS HAREL is Senior Military Correspon- serious enemies left to fight.” Meridor
dent for Haaretz and the author of Teda kol em was exaggerating, but he had a point.
Ivria: Kavim ledmutu shel Zahal hachadash (Let
Every Jewish Mother Know: The New Face of Israel’s traditional foes no longer pose
the IDF). the threat they once did.
July/August 2016 43
Amos Harel
For most of the past few decades, the military superiority. When it comes to
IDF’s nightmare scenario was a repeat of Israel’s commanders, defense technol-
the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Syrian ogies, air force, and intelligence agencies,
tanks stormed the Golan Heights and the country’s capabilities are vastly
Syrian commandos captured Mount superior to those of its neighbors. Its
Hermon in a surprise attack. Today, victories in most conflicts since 1948
after more than five years of civil war, have made this superiority abundantly
Syria has disintegrated, and the risk of clear. Partly as a result, since 1973, Syria
a conventional conflict with Israel has has mostly avoided confronting Israel
nearly vanished. In April, Israeli soldiers directly, and Egypt and Jordan have
on Mount Hermon told me that their signed peace agreements with it.
Syrian counterparts on the other side
of the border, unable to obtain supplies, DANGEROUS NEIGHBORS
had deserted their positions more than Yet considering the remaining threats
a year earlier. Most of Syria’s tank units to Israel’s security—militant groups—
and artillery batteries have disbanded, the picture grows darker. At the moment,
and much of the country’s massive arsenal Hezbollah and ISIS are too busy fighting
of chemical weapons, which Damascus each other in Syria to think much about
began stockpiling in the 1970s to deter Israel. But both groups have declared their
Israel, has been dismantled under intention to attack it in the future. Once
international supervision. Syria’s civil war finally ends, Hezbollah
As for the Arab countries still con- will probably need time to regroup and
trolled by the authoritarian old guard, so will hold off on attacking Israel; ISIS
they have grown ever more interested will likely act on its threats sooner.
in cooperating with Israel, albeit quietly. Over the last ten years, Hezbollah
Egypt, Jordan, and, to a lesser extent, has amassed an arsenal of between 100,000
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab and 150,000 rockets and missiles. During
Emirates have abandoned their past the 2006 war in Lebanon, the group
fixation on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict launched some 4,200 of such projectiles
and have mostly recognized that the at Israeli towns and cities. Most of them
problems they share with Israel are missed, but they still killed 42 Israeli
bigger than those that divide them: civilians and provoked a massive military
Iran and its proxies, on the one hand, response—a sign that Hezbollah had
and ISIS and al Qaeda, on the other. As managed to exploit Israel’s extreme
did Israeli leaders, Saudi officials crit- sensitivity to casualties. Since then,
icized the Obama administration over the group’s leaders have pledged to up
the nuclear deal with Iran; in recent the ante in any future conflict. Should
years, Saudi Arabia has also stepped Israel attack again, they say, they will
up its intelligence sharing with Israel. turn Lebanese territory into a death trap
The disappearance of the conven- for IDF forces; Israeli officials contend
tional threats to Israel’s security is not that Hezbollah would hit Israeli towns
just the result of recent regional turmoil, and infrastructure with as many as 1,500
however; it is also a product of these rockets per day and launch cross-border
governments’ recognition of Israel’s raids on Israeli villages and military
44 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel’s Evolving Military
invade the Galilee, the Israeli region there to a virtual halt, putting the govern-
closest to the Lebanese border.) Although ment under enormous public pressure
Hezbollah may prove too weak to deliver to stop the attacks. To do so, it would
on such threats in the face of an all-out likely send tens of thousands of ground
Israeli invasion, the group clearly poses troops deep into Lebanon and carry out
a more serious threat than it did a few aggressive air strikes against Hezbollah’s
years ago. Despite the heavy casualties bases there. But since Hezbollah has
July/August 2016 45
Amos Harel
built its bases in densely populated counter the group. In return for the
areas, the IDF would likely kill many PA’s cooperation, the Israeli government
Lebanese civilians in the process. The has generally not intervened in the PA’s
Israeli government would thus find domestic affairs and has allowed the
itself in a bind, facing intense domestic West Bank to enjoy a modest economic
demands for rapid action on the one recovery. At the same time, more and
hand and international condemnation more Israeli leaders have abandoned
for its tactics on the other. To make talk of a permanent peace and have
matters worse, the IDF would be unlikely started focusing on how to manage,
to achieve a decisive victory: even under rather than resolve, the conflict.
a heavy offensive, Hezbollah would still Yet Israel’s strategy has recently run
be able to fire a large number of rockets into serious problems. During Israel’s
at Israel. 2014 military campaign against Hamas,
Israel’s current military leaders the IDF aggressively bombed Gaza in
recognize this dilemma, but they also order to stop the group’s rocket fire and
contend that against massive rocket fire, destroy the tunnels it had dug under
there would probably be no alternative the border. Israel even sent in ground
to an IDF ground maneuver in Lebanon. troops to kill Hamas’ fighters and attack
The goal of inflicting massive military its military infrastructure near the
destruction on Lebanon would be to border with Israel. The death toll—
deter Hezbollah from attacking for at 1,483 Palestinian civilians, 722 Pales-
least a decade after the end of a poten- tinian fighters, and 72 Israelis, 66 of
tial conflict. them soldiers, were killed, according to
As for ISIS, it represents a significant the UN—led to intense Western criticism
threat to Israel, but it is not as danger- of Israel’s tactics as unnecessarily brutal.
ous as Hezbollah. ISIS has already sent In Gaza, the IDF faces the same
some of its foreign fighters home to dilemma as in Lebanon: stopping enemy
Europe to attack Jewish targets there attacks seems to require Israeli offensives
and has repeatedly threatened to attack that kill many civilians. Worse, it appears
Israel from both the Egyptian and the that another conflict with Hamas may
Syrian border. It will likely try to do be in the offing. Lacking the support
so soon, since doing so would give it a from Egypt it once enjoyed and facing
massive PR boost. To prepare for that public discontent as everyday life in
possibility, the IDF has deployed more Gaza becomes increasingly miserable,
forces to both borders and strengthened the militant group is feeling pressured,
its fences there; it has also stepped up which might encourage it to begin
intelligence gathering on the group. another round of escalation with Israel.
The Palestinian territories, mean-
while, present their own set of problems. ARMY AND NATION
Since at least 2007, when Hamas took Not only has Israel’s military had to
over Gaza by force the year after it contend with shifting external threats;
won elections there, the IDF has worked it has also had to grapple with changes
closely with the Palestinian Authority, in its own society. Until at least the
which still governs the West Bank, to mid-1980s, Israel saw itself as struggling
46 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel’s Evolving Military
for survival. Most Israeli men consid- At the same time, the military’s demo-
ered combat service a national necessity graphic makeup has started to change.
and a personal aspiration, and most Today, only 73 percent of eligible Jewish
women were content to serve in the IDF Israeli men and 58 percent of eligible
in noncombat support roles. For the Jewish Israeli women serve in the IDF—a
first few decades after the Holocaust, historic low in a country with a long-
most Israelis thought that spending standing policy of mandatory military
time in uniform and suffering military service for most Jews. Many of the Jewish
casualties were a worthwhile price to men who don’t serve are ultra-Orthodox
pay for protecting the country. and non-Zionist; under a long-standing
Since the 1980s, however, that deal with the government, they are
sentiment has diminished somewhat. exempted from service so that they can
Many Israelis began to disapprove of continue their religious studies. Jewish
the occupation of the Gaza Strip and women, meanwhile, can opt out of
the West Bank and to question their service simply by declaring themselves
country’s actions in the 1982 war with religious, even if they are Zionists and
Lebanon and in the first intifada, which aren’t ultra-Orthodox. Such exemptions
began in 1987. Then, in the early 1990s, frustrate much of the secular population,
came the Oslo Accords, which were especially the parents of military-age
designed to settle the Israeli-Palestinian Israelis, who feel that the rules place an
conflict once and for all; at the same time, undue burden on those willing to serve.
Israel deepened its security, economic, Since 2014, the state has required several
and cultural ties to the United States thousand highly religious yeshiva students
and some western European countries. to enlist each year, and the students
Many Israelis became convinced that have generally complied. But popular
their country might finally break the tension over the exemptions seems set
pattern of seemingly endless conflict. to continue.
That daydream was shattered by the Another major change that has
assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, Israel’s occurred in recent years is the
then prime minister, in 1995, and by increasing reluctance of liberal secular
the second intifada, which lasted from Jews to volunteer to serve as officers
2000 to 2005. Yet many Israelis retained and in combat units. A growing number
their skepticism over the value of their of mostly right-wing religious Zionists
country’s military actions. Israel has have stepped in to fill these gaps, coming
now become the kind of society that to dominate the ranks of the IDF’s elite
the military strategist Edward Luttwak combat groups. Between 1990 and 2010,
might call “post-heroic”—one that is the percentage of religious junior officers
less willing to risk the lives of its young in infantry units rose from 2.5 percent
people in wars that segments of the to somewhere between 35 percent and
population do not consider absolutely 40 percent. This changing balance raises
necessary. Some Israelis have also become a number of potential problems. It is
less comfortable with enemy civilian conceivable, for example, that units
deaths, in part out of concern for their staffed by religious, right-wing Israelis
country’s international reputation. might not obey an order to dismantle
July/August 2016 47
Amos Harel
48 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
the event of a major conflict with
Hezbollah.
These reforms, while important,
will not help the IDF address its most
immediate challenge, however: the
consequences of the surge in violence War by Other Means
that broke out in Israel and the Pales- Geoeconomics and
Statecraft
tinian territories last October after
Robert D. Blackwill •
Jewish radicals attempted to pray on Jennifer M. Harris
the Temple Mount—an area known to “Readable and lucid . . .
Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary and [Presidential] candidates
that the Israeli government and Muslim who care more about
protecting American
leaders have reserved for Muslim prayer interests would be wise to
since 1967. In the intervening months, heed the advice of War by
young Palestinians have carried out a Other Means.”
—Jordan Schneider,
string of lone-wolf attacks, ramming
Weekly Standard
cars into Israeli pedestrians and soldiers Belknap Press | $29.95
or stabbing them in the streets. By early
May, the assailants had killed more than Global Inequality
30 Israelis; the IDF, meanwhile, had A New Approach for the
killed more than 175 alleged Palestinian Age of Globalization
49
Amos Harel
January, for example, when he insisted (Yaalon resigned on May 20, saying
that the army adhere to its rules of that he strongly disagreed with Netan-
engagement in order to avoid unneces- yahu’s government “on moral and
sary deaths, he was severely criticized, professional issues.”)
not just by right-wing backbenchers in All of this has left Eisenkot with
the Knesset but also by some ministers two main challenges: defending the
in the governing Likud Party. army and its code of ethics from both
The debate turned even uglier in late left- and right-wing critics and pre-
March after a soldier was videotaped paring it for war on several different
shooting a Palestinian assailant in the and uncertain fronts. So far, he has
head as he lay wounded on the ground. managed the tasks well. But he increas-
The Israeli army charged the soldier ingly finds himself at odds with many
with manslaughter. Right-wing legis- Israeli citizens, with conservative poli-
lators and nationalist soccer hooligans ticians, and, perhaps most important,
held a heated demonstration outside with some of his own soldiers, who
the military court near the southern prefer to shoot Palestinian attackers
city of Ashkelon. Posters portraying first and ask questions later. At the
Eisenkot and then Defense Minister very time the IDF should be retooling
Moshe Yaalon as traitors appeared around itself to confront a new set of external
the Kirya, the IDF’s Tel Aviv headquar- threats, it has found itself thrust into a
ters. But Eisenkot did not crack under new and uncomfortable role as one of
the pressure: the soldier’s trial began in the last gatekeepers of Israel’s
early May, and Eisenkot has insisted that democracy.∂
he alone is responsible for defining the
military’s rules of engagement.
Eisenkot’s deputy, Major General
Yair Golan, got into even worse trouble
a few days later in May, on Israel’s
Holocaust Remembrance Day, when he
gave a speech warning of increasingly
racist and violent trends in Israeli society.
By claiming that he recognized some
similarities between developments in
contemporary Israel and “the revolting
processes that occurred in Europe in
general, and particularly in Germany . . .
70, 80, and 90 years ago”—an allusion to
the Nazi period—Golan caused a massive
scandal. Right-wing ministers demanded
his resignation, and Netanyahu publicly
reprimanded him for “cheapen[ing] the
Holocaust.” Golan will remain in office,
but his chances of becoming Eisenkot’s
successor in 2019 now seem diminished.
50 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Return to Table of Contents
W
as the feud between U.S. Politically, Netanyahu’s tenure has
President Barack Obama been Israel’s least tumultuous. Netan-
and Israeli Prime Minister yahu has served longer than any other
Benjamin Netanyahu, first over settle- Israeli prime minister except David
ments and then over Iran, a watershed? Ben-Gurion, yet he has led Israel in only
Netanyahu, it is claimed, turned U.S. one ground war: the limited Operation
support of Israel into a partisan issue. Protective Edge in Gaza in 2014. “I’d
Liberals, including many American feel better if our partner was not the
Jews, are said to be fed up with Israel’s trigger-happy Netanyahu,” wrote the New
“occupation,” which will mark its 50th York Times columnist Maureen Dowd
anniversary next year. The weakening four years ago. But Netanyahu hasn’t
of Israel’s democratic ethos is suppos- pulled triggers, even against Iran. The
edly undercutting the “shared values” Israeli electorate keeps returning him to
argument for the relationship. Some say office precisely because he is risk averse:
Israel’s dogged adherence to an “unsus- no needless wars, but no ambitious peace
tainable” status quo in the West Bank plans either. Although this may produce
has made it a liability in a region in the “overwhelming frustration” in Obama’s
throes of change. Israel, it is claimed, is White House, in Vice President Joe Biden’s
slipping into pariah status, imposed by the scolding phrase, it suits the majority of
global movement for Boycott, Divestment, Israeli Jews just fine.
and Sanctions (BDS). Netanyahu’s endurance fuels the
Biblical-style lamentations over Israel’s frustration of Israel’s diminished left,
final corruption have been a staple of the too: thwarted at the ballot box, they
state’s critics and die-hard anti-Zionists comfort themselves with a false notion
for 70 years. Never have they been so that Israel’s democracy is endangered.
detached from reality. Of course, Israel The right made similar claims 20 years
ago, culminating in the assassination of
MARTIN KRAMER is President of Shalem Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Anti-
College, in Jerusalem, and the author of the
forthcoming book The War on Error: Israel, democratic forces exist in all democracies,
Islam, and the Middle East. but in Israel, they are either outside the
July/August 2016 51
Martin Kramer
52 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
Israel and the Post-American Middle East
Mind the gap: Hillary Clinton and Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, November 2012
genuine pariah of the Middle East is driving its adversaries to resignation—
the Syrian regime, which never deigned and compromise. This is more an art
to make peace with Israel. This last than a science, but such resolve has
so-called steadfast Arab state is consumed served Israel well over time.
from within by a great bloodbath; its
nuclear project and massive stocks of THE SUPERPOWER RETREATS
chemical weapons are a distant memory. Still, there is a looming cloud on Israel’s
Israel faces all manner of potential horizon. It isn’t Iran’s delayed nukes,
threats and challenges, but never has it academe’s threats of boycott, or Pales-
been more thoroughly prepared to meet tinian maneuvers at the UN. It is a huge
them. The notion popular among some power vacuum. The United States, after
Israeli pundits that their compatriots a wildly erratic spree of misadventures,
live in a perpetual state of paralyzing is backing out of the region. It is cutting
fear misleads both Israel’s allies and its its exposure to a Middle East that has
adversaries. Israel’s leaders are cautious consistently defied American expecta-
but confident, not easily panicked, and tions and denied successive American
practiced in the very long game that presidents the “mission accomplished”
BA Z R AT N E R / R E U T E R S
everyone plays in the Middle East. moments they crave. The disengage-
Nothing leaves them so unmoved as ment began before Obama entered the
the vacuous mantra that the status quo White House, but he has accelerated it,
is unsustainable. Israel’s survival has coming to see the Middle East as a region
always depended on its willingness to to be avoided because it “could not be
sustain the status quo that it has created, fixed—not on his watch, and not for a
July/August 2016 53
Martin Kramer
generation to come.” (This was the Middle East. Israel wants a new memo-
bottom-line impression of the journalist randum of understanding with the
Jeffrey Goldberg, to whom Obama granted United States, the bigger the better, as
his legacy interview on foreign policy.) compensation for the Iran nuclear deal.
If history is precedent, this is more It is in Israel’s interest to emphasize
than a pivot. Over the last century, the the importance of the U.S.-Israeli
Turks, the British, the French, and the relationship as the bedrock of regional
Russians each had their moment in the stability going forward.
Middle East, but prolonging it proved But how far forward is another
costly as their power ebbed. They gave question. Even as Israel seeks to deepen
up the pursuit of dominance and settled the United States’ commitment in the
for influence. A decade ago, in the pages short term, it knows that the unshakable
of this magazine, Richard Haass, the bond won’t last in perpetuity. This is a
president of the Council on Foreign lesson of history. The leaders of the
Relations, predicted that the United Zionist movement always sought to ally
States had reached just this point: “The their project with the dominant power
American era in the Middle East,” he of the day, but they had lived through
announced, “. . . has ended.” He went too much European history to think
on: “The United States will continue to that great power is ever abiding. In the
enjoy more influence in the region than twentieth century, they witnessed the
any other outside power, but its influ- collapse of old empires and the rise of
ence will be reduced from what it once new ones, each staking its claim to the
was.” That was a debatable proposition Middle East in turn, each making
in 2006; now in 2016, Obama has made promises and then rescinding them.
it indisputable. When the United States’ turn came,
There are several ways to make a the emerging superpower didn’t rush
retreat seem other than it is. The Obama to embrace the Jews. They were alone
administration’s tack has been to create during the 1930s, when the gates of
the illusion of a stable equilibrium, by the United States were closed to them.
cutting the United States’ commitments They were alone during the Holocaust,
to its allies and mollifying its adversaries. when the United States awoke too late.
And so, suddenly, none of the United They were alone in 1948, when the United
States’ traditional friends is good enough States placed Israel under an arms
to justify its full confidence. The great embargo, and in 1967, when a U.S.
power must conceal its own weariness, president explicitly told the Israelis that
so it pretends to be frustrated by the if they went to war, they would be alone.
inconstancy of “free riders.” The result- After 1967, Israel nestled in the Pax
ing complaints about Israel (as well as Americana. The subsequent decades
Egypt and Saudi Arabia) serve just such of the “special relationship” have so
a narrative. deepened Israel’s dependence on the
Israel’s leaders aren’t shy about warning United States in the military realm that
against the consequences of this posture, many Israelis can no longer remember
but they are careful not to think out loud how Israel managed to survive without
about Israeli options in a post-American all that U.S. hardware. Israel’s own armies
54 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
of supporters in the United States,
especially in the Jewish community,
reinforce this mindset as they assure
themselves that were it not for their
lobbying efforts in Washington, Israel
would be in mortal peril.
But the Obama administration has
given Israelis a preview of just how the
unshakable bond is likely to be shaken. Franklin Williams
This prospect might seem alarming to Internship
Israel’s supporters, but the inevitable The Council on Foreign Relations is seeking
turn of the wheel was precisely the talented individuals for the Franklin Williams
reason Zionist Jews sought sovereign Internship.
independence in the first place. An The Franklin Williams Internship, named after
independent Israel is a guarantee against the late Ambassador Franklin H. Williams,
was established for undergraduate and graduate
the day when the Jews will again find students who have a serious interest in
themselves alone, and it is an operating international relations.
premise of Israeli strategic thought Ambassador Williams had a long career of
that such a day will come. public service, including serving as the
American Ambassador to Ghana, as well as the
Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Lincoln
ISRAEL ALONE
University, one of the country’s historically
This conviction, far from paralyzing black colleges. He was also a Director of the
Israel, propels it to expand its options, Council on Foreign Relations, where he made
diversify its relationships, and build its special efforts to encourage the nomination of
independent capabilities. The Middle black Americans to membership.
East of the next 50 years will be differ- The Council will select one individual each
term (fall, spring, and summer) to work in
ent from that of the last 100. There
the Council’s New York City headquarters.
will be no hegemony-seeking outside The intern will work closely with a Program
powers. The costs of pursuing full- Director or Fellow in either the Studies or
spectrum dominance are too high; the the Meetings Program and will be involved
rewards are too few. Outside powers with program coordination, substantive
and business writing, research, and budget
will pursue specific goals, related to oil management. The selected intern will be
or terrorism. But large swaths of the required to make a commitment of at least 12
Middle East will be left to their fate, hours per week, and will be paid $10 an hour.
to dissolve and re-form in unpredictable To apply for this internship, please send a
ways. Israel may be asked by weaker résumé and cover letter including the se-
mester, days, and times available to work to
neighbors to extend its security net to
the Internship Coordinator in the Human
include them, as it has done for decades Resources Office at the address listed below.
for Jordan. Arab concern about Iran is The Council is an equal opportunity employer.
already doing more to normalize Israel Council on Foreign Relations
in the region than the ever-elusive and Human Resources Office
ever-inconclusive peace process. Israel, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065
tel: 212.434 . 9400 fax: 212.434 . 9893
once the fulcrum of regional conflict, humanresources@cfr.org http://www.cfr.org
will loom like a pillar of regional
55
Martin Kramer
stability—not only for its own people don’t sway Israel’s government, which
but also for its neighbors, threatened knows better, but they do fuel Arab and
by a rising tide of political fragmentation, Iranian rejection of Israel among those
economic contraction, radical Islam, and who believe that the United States no
sectarian hatred. longer has Israel’s back. For Israel’s
So Israel is planning to outlast the enemies, drawing the conclusion that
United States in the Middle East. Israel is thus weak would be a tragic
Israelis roll their eyes when the United mistake: Israel is well positioned to
States insinuates that it best understands sustain the status quo all by itself. Its
Israel’s genuine long-term interests, long-term strategy is predicated on it.
which Israel is supposedly too traumatized A new U.S. administration will offer
or confused to discern. Although Israel an opportunity to revisit U.S. policy, or at
has made plenty of tactical mistakes, it least U.S. rhetoric. One of the candidates,
is hard to argue that its strategy has Hillary Clinton, made a statement as
been anything but a success. And given secretary of state in Jerusalem in 2010 that
the wobbly record of the United States came closer to reality and practicality.
in achieving or even defining its interests “The status quo is unsustainable,” she
in the Middle East, it is hard to say the said, echoing the usual line. But she added
same about U.S. strategy. The Obama this: “Now, that doesn’t mean that it can’t
administration has placed its bet on the be sustained for a year or a decade, or two
Iran deal, but even the deal’s most ardent or three, but fundamentally, the status
advocates no longer claim to see the quo is unsustainable.” Translation: the
“arc of history” in the Middle East. In status quo may not be optimal, but it is
the face of the collapse of the Arab Spring, sustainable, for as long as it takes.
the Syrian dead, the millions of refugees, As the United States steps back from
and the rise of the Islamic State, or ISIS, the Middle East, this is the message
who can say in which direction the arc Washington should send if it wants to
points? Or where the Iran deal will lead? assist Israel and other U.S. allies in
One other common American filling the vacuum it will leave behind.∂
mantra deserves to be shelved. “Pre-
cisely because of our friendship,” said
Obama five years ago, “it is important
that we tell the truth: the status quo is
unsustainable, and Israel too must act
boldly to advance a lasting peace.” It is
time for the United States to abandon
this mantra, or at least modify it. Only
if Israel’s adversaries conclude that Israel
can sustain the status quo indefinitely—
Israel’s military supremacy, its economic
advantage, and, yes, its occupation—is
there any hope that they will reconcile
themselves to Israel’s existence as a
Jewish state. Statements like Obama’s
56 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S