DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

I. DISCRETE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

- All values of the random variables have an equal chance of occurring.

u (x:n) = 1 / n ; x = x1, x2, x3 ... xn

where: u(x:n) = the probability assigned to each one of the values of the
random variable
n = parameter of the distribution referring to the total number
of values which the random variable can assume

n n

mean,  = x
i 1
i variance, 2 =  (x -  )2
i 1
i

n n

Example Problems:
1. An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to supervise a certain project by selecting a tag at random from a
box containing 10 tags numbered from 1 to 10. Find the formula for the probability distribution of X representing
the number on the tag that, is drawn. What is the probability that the number drawn is less than 4?

2. Tossing a coin and throwing a die.

II. BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Characteristics
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials. Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
2. For each trial, there are only two mutually exclusive outcomes, success and failure. The event that
corresponds to success is chosen arbitrarily. Usually, it is defined in accordance to what is required in the
problem.
Let p = probability of success where: p + q = 1
q = probability of failure
3. The probability of success remains constant from trial to trial. The repeated trials are independent. This
means that the outcomes on any given trial does not affect the outcomes of the succeeding trials.

Underlying Assumption
Sampling is done with replacement. Trials are independent of each other.
Let x = binomial random variable
= refers to the number of successes obtained in n trials
 n
f(x) = b (x, n, p) = px q n – x
x

mean,  = np variance, 2 = npq

Note: If lot size is big and sampling is small, binomial distribution can be applied even if it is without
replacement.

Example Problems:

1. A large multinational corporation has sufficient capital to finance ten investment proposals. The probability
of any investment proposal being successful is 80%. What is the probability that the firm will have
a. 3 successful investment proposal?
b. Between 4 and 6 successful investment proposals inclusive?
c. More than 3 successful investment proposals?
d. At most 2 failures?
e. Between 4 and 8 failures exclusive?

2. In testing a certain kind of truck tire over a rugged terrain, it is found that 25% of the trucks fail to complete
the test run without a blowout. Of the next 15 trucks tested, find the probability that
(a) from 3 to 6 have blowouts;
(b) fewer than 4 have blowouts:
(c) more than 5 have blowouts.

III. MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

This distribution is an extension of the binomial distribution. This is a general representation of the
binomial distribution where there are more than two possible outcomes per trial.

Characteristics
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. There are k mutually exclusive outcomes on each trial.
3. The probabilities of the outcomes remain constant from trial to trial. Sampling is done with replacement.
Example Problems:

1. The surface of a circular dart board has a small center circle called the bull's-eye and 20 pie-shaped regions
numbered from 1 to 20. Each of the pie-shaped regions is further divided into three parts such that a person
throwing a dart that lands on a specified number scores the value of the number, double the number, or
triple the number, depending on which of the three parts the dart falls. If a person hits the bull's-eye with
probability 0.01, hits a double with probability 0.10, hits a triple with probability 0.05, and misses the dart
board with probability 0.02, what is the probability that 7 throws will result in no bull's-eyes, no triples, a
double twice, and a complete miss once?
2. According to a genetics theory, a certain cross of guinea pigs will result in red, black, and white offspring
in the ratio 8:4:4. Find the probability that among 8 offspring 5 will be red, 2 black, and 1 white.
3. The probabilities are 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively, that a delegate to a certain convention arrived by
air, bus, automobile, or train. What is the probability that among 9 delegates randomly selected at this
convention, 3 arrived by air, 3 arrived by bus, 1 arrived by automobile, and 2 arrived by train?

IV. HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

Characteristics
1. A random sample of size n is selected from N items.
2. The N items may be subdivided into two groups, k of the items are classified as successes. Thus, N – k of the
items are considered failures. The choice of successes is arbitrary.
3. Sampling is done without replacement.

Let x = hypergeometric random variable

k N k
h (x, N, n, k) =
x nx

N
n

mean, x = n { k / N} variance, 2 = n (k / N) (1 – k/N) {(N – n) / (N – 1)}

Cases where Binomial Can Approximate the Hypergeometric Distribution

1. when N is not given (assume N is large)
2. N is given but it is very large

Example Problems:
1. From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and fired. If the lot contains 3 defective missiles that
will not fire, what is the probability that
(a) all 4 will fire?
(b) at most 2 will not fire?
2. An annexation suit is being considered against a county subdivision of 1200 residences by a neighboring
city. If the occupants of half the residences object to being annexed, what is the probability that in a
random sample of 10 at least 3 favor the annexation suit?
Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution
If N items can be partitioned into the k cells A1, A2, ..., Ak, with a1, a2, ... ak elements, respectively, then
the probability distribution of the random variables x1, x2, ... xk, representing the number of elements selected
from A1, A2, ..., Ak in a random sample of size n, is

a1 a2 a3
f(x1, x2, ... xk; a1, a2, ... ak; N, n) = ....
x1 x2 x3

N
n

Example Problem:
1. A foreign student club lists as its members 2 Canadians, 3 Japanese, 5 Italians, and 2 Germans. If a
committee of 4 is selected at random, find the probability that
(a) all nationalities are represented;
(b) all nationalities except the Italians are represented.
2. An urn contains 3 green balls, 2 blue balls, and 4 red balls. In a random sample: of 5 balls, find the
probability that both blue balls and at least 1 red ball are selected.

V. NEGATIVE BINOMIAL

Example Problem:
1. The probability that a person, living in a certain city, owns a dog is estimated to be 0.3. Find the
probability that the tenth person randomly interviewed in that city is the fifth one to own a dog.
2. Find the probability that a person flipping a coin gets the third head on the seventh flip;

VI. GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

Example Problem:
1. The probability that a student pilot passes the written test for a private pilot's license is 0.7. Find the
probability that the student will pass the test
(a) on the third try;
(b) before the fourth try.

2. Find the probability that a person flipping a coin gets the first head on the fourth flip.
VII. POISSON DISTRIBUTION
In the Poisson experiment, the observer is concerned with the actual number of occurrences or successes
at random points in time, space or volume or in any other stated unit.

Examples of Experiments which May Follow the Poisson Experiment

1. number of arrivals per hour at a counter
2. number of defects per square meter of cloth
3. product demand in a year
4. number of telephone calls per five minutes

Let x = Poisson random variable

= number of occurrences per stated unit
 = mean number of occurrences per stated unit

P(x, ) = e - x x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 
x!

x = 2x

Note: x and x must always be stated in the same units.

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

The Poisson Distribution can be used as an approximation to the binomial distribution when n  100 and
p < 0.01.

b(x, n, p)  p(x: ) where:  = np

b(x, n, p)  p(x: np)

n
px q n-x  e –np (np) x
x
x!

Example Problem:
1. On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per month. What is the probability that for
any given month at this intersection
(a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
(b) less than 3 accidents will occur?
(c) at least 2 accidents will occur?

2. A restaurant chef prepares a tossed salad containing, on average, 5 vegetables. Find the probability that
the salad contains more than 5 vegetables
(a) on a given day;
(b) on 3 of the next 4 days;
(c) for the first time in April on April 5.