Problem Statement:

As BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) develop economically, they will
produce more emissions and have higher energy needs. There needs to be an economic analysis of these
countries, that includes diverse measures of development, to determine the costs and consequences of
implementing renewable energies.

Why study BRICS?

We already know that industrialized nations have the capacity to implement renewables on a large scale
(although not without consequences). BRICS' social and economic factors have been studied with length
and breadth; research on development and climate change has been analyzed by several authors as well.
However, an analysis using the ND-GAIN index as well as projections of future social costs of climate
change has not yet been done.

Objective:
To determine if it is economically feasible and beneficial to implement renewables in BRICS countries
without undermining economic development. .

Method:
My method is to find trends in these countries spanning 20 years (1995-2015) to determine their
vulnerability and readiness for climate change related challenges.

Vulnerability includes: exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to respond to negative consequences of climate
change. Index includes these factors: ​food, water, health, ecosystem service, human habitat, and
infrastructure.

Readiness includes: ​economic readiness, governance readiness and social readiness.

ND-GAIN index score: composed of a vulnerability score and a readiness score. Vulnerability and
readiness are based on compiled indicators. 36 indicators contribute to the measure of vulnerability. 9
indicators contribute to the measure of readiness.

Trends among these factors, when included in data about the cost effectiveness of renewables for these
countries specifically (second sources), will indicate how ready, on a scale (to be determined), they are for
these technologies and how beneficial or detrimental it could be for development.

Capacity for implementing renewable energy systems must be determined on a country-by-country basis.
Each has unique obstacles, and thus should be addressed separately. The aim in doing the analysis of each
will be to determine if they have the capacity to implement renewables. To that end, this analysis will be
towards the goal of finding the trend—what analyses of countries show to be an economic threshold (in
terms of ND-GAIN, Vulnerability, and Readiness scores) beyond which countries should implement in
order to avoid higher future costs of dirty energy sources and higher GHGes.
Notes on the threshold concept: it may be that countries do not pass a threshold, but gain more and more
capacity to where it makes increasing economic sense to implement. Still, though, based on calculations
for future costs of non-renewable energy sources, future energy demand (compounding future costs), and
the global need to mitigate, a threshold may be determined.

Towards correlating GDP with ND-GAIN index scores

BRICS: GDP / ND-GAIN

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Correction: this correlation may not be very meaningful. We need to figure out what to correlate the
ND-GAIN scores with, and whether to use the GDP adjusted scores.

If the end goal is to get a result that indicates whether BRICS should reduce emissions (or implement
renewables to serve increasing energy needs); to answer, at what point should renewables be implemented
(and to what extent) in BRICS to ensure healthy economic development, and what would be needed in
external aid to do so — meaningful data should include vulnerability and readiness scores on top of
ND-GAIN scores. The trend in these ​should show the capacity for a country to implement renewables​.