Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 3

MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties


FROM: Rick Shaftan, Neighborhood Research and Media
RE: Iowa Caucus Polling
DATE: 1/19/20
The following are the results of a survey of 300 Iowa Democrats who
said their chances of voting in the February 3 Democratic Presidential
Caucus were “definite” or “very likely.”

The ballot test question was asked as an open-ended, with no names


suggested. As a result, a small percentage of respondents mentioned
Donald Trump as their first choice, even though they said they plan on
participating in the Democratic Caucus.
BALLOT TEST
ALL DEF LIBERAL MOD FB DAILY NO FB
N= 300 193 143 106 128 109
Biden 23.3% 22.8% 21.7% 29.3% 22.7% 29.4%
Buttigieg 17.0% 18.1% 15.4% 17.9% 19.5% 12.8%
Warren 14.7% 15.5% 23.1% 5.7% 15.6% 11.9%
Klobuchar 11.3% 13.5% 7.7% 17.9% 12.5% 11.0%
Sanders 10.3% 9.3% 14.7% 3.8% 7.8% 9.2%
Trump 4.7% 4.2% 0.7% 2.8% 6.3% 4.6%
Steyer 2.3% 2.6% 1.4% 1.9% 0.0% 4.6%
Yang 1.7% 1.6% 2.1% 0.9% 1.6% 2.8%
Others 1.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 1.8%
Undecided 13.0% 10.4% 11.9% 13.2% 12.5% 11.9%

65+ <50 75+ CELL MEN WOMEN


N= 175 56 81 98 117 183
Biden 28.6% 10.7% 30.9% 16.3% 18.8% 26.2%
Buttigieg 16.0% 21.4% 14.8% 18.4% 18.8% 12.0%
Warren 11.4% 23.2% 9.9% 19.4% 12.8% 15.9%
Klobuchar 13.7% 1.8% 11.1% 11.2% 10.3% 12.0%
Sanders 7.4% 19.6% 7.4% 11.2% 11.1% 9.8%
Trump 2.3% 3.6% 2.5% 6.1% 5.1% 4.4%
Steyer 4.0% 0.0% 7.4% 1.0% 2.6% 2.2%
Yang 0.6% 7.1% 0.0% 3.1% 4.3% 0.0%
Others 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7%
Undecided 14.3% 10.7% 14.8% 12.2% 14.5% 12.0%

Biden’s lead is based entirely on results from the first night, prior
to the debate. Of all the candidates, he took the biggest hit that
evening although Yang has also been hurt. The beneficiaries:
Klobuchar and Steyer. Sanders has also lost ground to Warren.

Joe Biden is essentially in freefall and despite his current lead,


it’s highly unlikely he will win the caucus unless something changes
in his favor rapidly in the last few days.

1/14 1/15-17 Change


N= 103 197
Biden 30.1% 19.8% -11.3%
Buttigieg 16.5% 17.3% + 0.8%
Warren 12.6% 15.7% + 3.1%
Klobuchar 8.7% 12.7% + 4.0%
Sanders 10.7% 10.2% - 0.5%
Trump 2.9% 5.6% + 2.7%
Steyer 1.0% 3.1% + 2.1%
Yang 2.9% 1.0% - 1.9%
Others 2.9% 1.5% - 1.4%
Undecided 12.6% 13.2% + 0.6%

Warren and Klobuchar have the advantage of both a motivated base and
momentum after the caucus. Sanders and especially Biden have the
opposite problem. Look for Biden to lose his lead over the next few
days, and for Sanders people to start moving to Warren – something
that will accelerate in the final days as Sanders starts to fade,
which he will.

Buttigieg has a solid second place showing, but does better with
younger men and will end up getting much of the Yang support (every
Yang voter was an under 35 male.)

Other notes:

Klobuchar’s support is on the older side age-wise, a plus in a caucus


where most participants are likely to be over 65. Steyer has similar
demographics, only more-so. All his voters were over 75 years of age.
That being said, Steyer could run better than expected with an outside
chance of running ahead of Sanders.

Sanders running in third place with voters under 50 is a disaster for


him, and even worse, running FOURTH with liberals. 55 percent of his
voters named Elizabeth Warren as a second choice, and that’s who they
will flock to once his defeat becomes apparent. These voters will
push Warren to a first-place finish over the surging Klobuchar, who is
rapidly gaining Biden voters, and Buttigieg, who is strong with men
and younger voters.
We’re guessing that Biden doesn’t even finish in the top three, and
that Sanders will underperform and while he has funds to continue, a
poor Iowa showing, increasingly likely, will take the steam out of all
but his most committed supporters.

Tomorrow we will examine the open-endeds on Biden and the other


candidates to see exactly why these numbers are moving as they are as
well as an examination of second place votes and who might move where
if campaigns collapse.

DEMOGRAPHICS

CD: 1 = 25.0%, 2 = 21.3%, 3 = 31.7%, 4 = 22.0%

Top 50% of vote counties: Polk 21.3%, Linn 8.3%, Story 6.7%,
Johnson 6.0%, Scott 4.7%, Black Hawk 3.7%.

DMA: Des Moines 44.3%, Cedar Rapids 31.3%, Quad Cities 8.0%,
Sioux City 6.7%, Omaha 3.7%, Mason City 3.0%, Quincy/Hannibal 1.7%,
Ottumwa/Kirksville 1.3%.

Open-ended ethnic (multiple choices accepted): German 40.7%,


English 31.3%, Irish 18.3%, Norwegian 5.7%, Swedish 5.3%,
Scottish 5.0%, Dutch 4.0%, French 3.7%, Italian 3.0%, Polish 2.0%

METHODOLOGY

Calls were made by live callers from our phone facility in Kill Devil
Hills, North Carolina to registered Iowa voters who had participated
in either the 2016 or the 2018 Democratic Primaries and who said their
chances of voting in the 2020 caucus were “definite” or “very likely.”
The theoretical margin of error for the ballot test question is +/-
4.8 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

###