Business Forecasting Assignment 2 (18PGDM-BHU014)

Trend To Moving Average

Q1. Fit the Ratio to Moving Average Method to the Given Data and Calculate the Seasonal Idexes
Q2. If Sales for the year 2018 are forecasted to be Rs. 50 lakhs estimate the sales per quarter

Quarter 1 Quarter 2
2012 108 130
2013 86 120
2014 92 118
2015 78 100
2016 82 110
2017 106 118

Quarter 1 Quarter 2
2012
2013 84.4171779141 117.6470588235
2014 90.1960784314 116.9764560099
2015 85.4794520548 112.676056338
2016 89.6174863388 118.2795698925
2017 103.037667072 112.1140142518

Quartely Average 90.5495723622 115.5386310631

Correction Factor
Adjusted SI 90.7787481484 115.831052727
PREDICTED SALES PER QUARTER 1134734.35185 1447888.159087
HU014)

e the Seasonal Idexes

ales per quarter

Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Y(t) MA (uncentered) MA (centered)

107 93 108
110 91 130 109.5
104 88 107 104 106.75
94 78 93 101.5 102.75
98 86 86 102.25 101.875
105 98 120 101.75 102
110 103.25 102.5
Quarter 3 Quarter 4 91 102.75 103
100.234192037 90.51094891 92 101.25 102
107.317073171 88.34951456 118 100.5 100.875
105.316455696 92.87598945 104 97 98.75
106.818181818 86.90807799 88 92.5 94.75
101.030927835 85.14851485 78 90 91.25
100 87.5 88.75
94 88.5 88
104.143366112 88.75860915 398.9902 78 91 89.75
82 92 91.5
1.002531 110 94 93
104.406947012 88.98325211 400 98 100 97
1305086.83765 1112290.651 5000000 86 102 101
106 103.75 102.875
118 106.75 105.25
105
98
 Y(t)/trend

100.234192
90.51094891
84.41717791
117.6470588
107.3170732
88.34951456
90.19607843
116.976456
105.3164557
92.87598945
85.47945205
112.6760563
106.8181818
86.90807799
89.61748634
118.2795699
101.0309278
85.14851485
103.0376671
112.1140143