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21 January 2009
Outline of discussion paper
1. Introduction
6. Conclusion
3. Cape Town’s transport system and the
environment
Fuel consumption:
Industry / commerce,
57,123, 38%
Hendler et al 2007
Global energy supply by fuel type (2004)
(million tons of oil equivalent)
Hydro, 247, 2%
Nuclear, 718, 6% Geothermal/solar/win
d, 56, 0%
Combustible
renewables and
waste, 1,177, 10% Oil, 3,947, 36% • Oil provides 90% of
transport fuels
Wakeford 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/13/225447/79
predicted peak = 125 Mb/d …
recently reduced to ±104-110 Mb/d
Energy Watch Group 2007, Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States 2007, IEA 2008
Energy Watch Group 2007, Simmons 2008, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:OPEC-reserves-thumb.png#filehistory
What are the predicted impacts of oil depletion?
Stevens 2008
Donovan et al 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg
3. Cape Town’s transport system and the
environment
Gaseous emissions:
Estimated annual direct greenhouse gas emissions in Cape Town Global greenhouse gas emissions by by sector (2000)
(megaton CO2 equivalent) (gigatons of Co2 equivalent)
Waste, 1.26, 3%
Other energy related,
Electricity, 8.6, 23% 2.1, 5%
Air and marine Power, 10.08, 24%
Buildings, 3.36, 8%
transport, 12.6, 34%
Transport, 5.88,
Heating and 14%
industrial, 3.7, 10%
Land use, 7.56, 18%
Industry, 5.88, 14%
Ground transport, Agriculture, 5.88,
12.7, 33% 14%
Stern 2006
+0.7 oC
since 1900
Brohan et al 2006
4. Implications of the sustainability of transport
operations in Cape Town
• Decline in short-haul and discretionary air travel: the viability of air transport
for both freight and passenger movements – particularly those of a discretionary
(e.g. tourism) and short-haul nature – is likely to decline fairly rapidly in the face
of aviation fuel price increases
5. Towards more sustainable resource use in the
transport sector
• Build upon the existing rail- and road-based public transport assets: The
planning and regulation of integrated public transport operations should build
upon the significant physical and human capital assets represented by key
components of the current public transport system – local passenger rail
services, in particular, but also the privately-operated and long-established
scheduled bus services, as well as, the minibus-taxi industry. This implies the
modification of any proposed ‘clean sheet’ approaches to the necessary far-
reaching reform of the city’s public transport system in such a way that present
contextual realities are appropriately accommodated.
• Less travel intensive land use systems and ‘localised’ economic systems:
the formulation of land use plans which seek to promote, through appropriate
land use management measures and careful planning of the installation of urban
infrastructure, less travel-intensive patterns of urban development – including
polycentric spatial structures at the city scale and the facilitation of ‘transit
oriented’ mixed use and higher density development at the local scale
5. Conclusion
• Another critical ‘tipping point’ in the form of anthropogenic climate change may
already have passed - acceptance of the ‘precautionary principle’ would imply
that we act now to contain and reduce the level of emissions in all sectors,
including transport
• Expectations that technological ‘fixes’ will inevitably emerge which will obviate
the need for any radical change are, in our view, likely to prove self-deluding -
efforts to suppress recognition of the urgency of the current situation, and to
delay intervention to secure transition towards a more sustainable urban
transport system in the interests of continuing ‘business as usual’, we believe
can no longer be seen as tenable
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