Period Demand Forecast 1 e |e| (e)^2 Forecast 2

1 10 12 2 2 4 12
2 12 14 2 2 4 14
3 14 15 1 1 1 15
4 8 10 2 2 4 10
5 9 7 -2 2 4 7
6 5 4 -1 1 1 4
7 8 5 -3 3 9 5
8 10 8 -2 2 4 8
9 12 12 0 0 0 12
10 11 14 3 3 9 14
11 10 13 3 3 9 13
12 15 8 -7 7 49 9

MAE 2.33 MAE

RMSE 2.86 RMSE
%Change in MAE 3.57%
%Change in RMSE 6.87%
e |e| (e)^2
2 2 4
2 2 4
1 1 1
2 2 4
-2 2 4
-1 1 1
-3 3 9
-2 2 4
0 0 0
3 3 9
3 3 9
-6 6 36

2.25
2.66
 Period Demand Forecast 1 e |e| (e)^2 |e/D| Forecast 2 e
1 3 2 -1 1 1.0 0.3 4.0 1.0
2 1 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0
3 5 2 -3 3 9.0 0.6 4.0 -1.0
4 20 2 -18 18 324.0 0.9 4.0 -16.0
5 13 2 -11 11 121.0 0.8 4.0 -9.0
6 3 2 -1 1 1.0 0.3 4.0 1.0
7 4 2 -2 2 4.0 0.5 4.0 0.0
8 5 2 -3 3 9.0 0.6 4.0 -1.0
9 4 2 -2 2 4.0 0.5 4.0 0.0
10 16 2 -14 14 196.0 0.9 4.0 -12.0
11 4 2 -2 2 4.0 0.5 4.0 0.0
12 1 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0
13 1 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0
14 3 2 -1 1 1.0 0.3 4.0 1.0
15 14 2 -12 12 144.0 0.9 4.0 -10.0
16 1 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0
17 2 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0
18 1 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0
19 2 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0
20 5 2 -3 3 9.0 0.6 4.0 -1.0
21 5 2 -3 3 9.0 0.6 4.0 -1.0
22 2 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0
23 12 2 -10 10 100.0 0.8 4.0 -8.0
24 1 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0
25 20 2 -18 18 324.0 0.9 4.0 -16.0

Bias -3.92 Bias -1.92

MAE 4.40 MAE 4.1
RMSE 7.12 RMSE 6.2
MAPE 64.4% MAPE 108.9%

outliers (median vs Average)

Period Demand Week Demand
1 16 16.0 1 100
2 8 8.0 2 0
3 12 12.0 3 0
4 9 9.0
5 6 6.0
6 12 12.0
7 5 5.0
8 7 7.0
 9 6 6.0
10 14 100.0
Median 8.5 8.5
Average 9.5 18.1
 |e| (e)^2 |e/D| Forecast 3 e |e| (e)^2 |e/D|
1.00 1 0 6 3 3 9 1
3.00 9 3 6 5 5 25 5
1.00 1 0 6 1 1 1 0
16.00 256 1 6 -14 14 196 1
9.00 81 1 6 -7 7 49 1
1.00 1 0 6 3 3 9 1
0.00 0 0 6 2 2 4 1
1.00 1 0 6 1 1 1 0
0.00 0 0 6 2 2 4 1
12.00 144 1 6 -10 10 100 1
0.00 0 0 6 2 2 4 1
3.00 9 3 6 5 5 25 5
3.00 9 3 6 5 5 25 5
1.00 1 0 6 3 3 9 1
10.00 100 1 6 -8 8 64 1
3.00 9 3 6 5 5 25 5
2.00 4 1 6 4 4 16 2
3.00 9 3 6 5 5 25 5
2.00 4 1 6 4 4 16 2
1.00 1 0 6 1 1 1 0
1.00 1 0 6 1 1 1 0
2.00 4 1 6 4 4 16 2
8.00 64 1 6 -6 6 36 1
3.00 9 3 6 5 5 25 5
16.00 256 1 6 -14 14 196 1

Bias 0
MAE 5 Median Bias result
RMSE 6 Average
MAPE 180%

Forecast Avg Error Errorsquare

33.00 67 4489
33.00 33 1089
33.00 33 1089
Weakness

.
Period Demand Period Demand
1 16 1 16
2 8 2 8
3 12 3 12
4 9 4 9
5 6 5 6
6 12 6 12
7 5 7 5
8 7 8 7
9 6 9 6
10 14 10 100

Median 8.5 8.5

Average 9.5 18.1
Week Demand Forecast 1 (Median) e |e| (e)^2 Forecast 2(Average) e
1 100 0 -100 100 10000 33.3 -66.7
2 0 0 0 0 0 33.3 33.3
3 0 0 0 0 0 33.3 33.3

MAE 33.33 44.43

RMSE 57.74 47.14
|e| (e)^2
66.7 4448.89
33.3 1108.89
33.3 1108.89
Period Demand MA_10 e_t |e_t| (e_t)^2 |e_t/D_t| MA_20 e_t
1 29
2 43
3 40
4 55
5 75
6 65
7 75
8 47
9 77
10 61
11 56
12 53
13 18
14 42
15 50
16 36
17 50
18 65
19 33
20 66
21 79
22 38
23 75
24 53
25 66
26 45
27 60
28 35
29 52
30 41
31 67
32 22
33 76
34 38
35 62
36 40
37 51
38 34
39 70
40 68
41 64
42 15
43 45
44 45
45 36
46 78
47 81
48 54
49 47
50 61
51 58
52 32
53 54
54 49
55 29
56 63
57 44
58 56
59 64
60 49
61 57
62 47
63 52
64 52
65 62
66 62
67 55
68 50
69 55
70 60
71 51
72 61
73 73
74 52
75 60
76 49
77 58
78 70
79 27
80 57 56.1 -0.9 0.9 0.81 0.02 54.85 -2.15
81 52 55.8 3.8 3.8 14.44 0.07 55.05 3.05
82 50 55.9 5.9 5.9 34.81 0.12 55.6 5.6
83 33 54.8 21.8 21.8 475.24 0.66 55.45 22.45
84 53 50.8 -2.2 2.2 4.84 0.04 53.9 0.9
85 54 50.9 -3.1 3.1 9.61 0.06 52.95 -1.05
86 60 50.3 -9.7 9.7 94.09 0.16 52.45 -7.55
87 57 51.4 -5.6 5.6 31.36 0.10 52.95 -4.05
88 57 51.3 -5.7 5.7 32.49 0.10 52.45 -4.55
89 63 50 -13 13 169 0.21 52.05 -10.95
90 64 53.6 -10.4 10.4 108.16 0.16 52.75 -11.25
91 62 54.3 -7.7 7.7 59.29 0.12 51.95 -10.05
92 58 55.3 -2.7 2.7 7.29 0.05 51.94737 -6.05263
93 42 56.1 14.1 14.1 198.81 0.34 52.05556 10.05556
 94 33 57 24 24 576 0.73 53.17647 20.17647
95 50 55 5 5 25 0.10 53.1875 3.1875
96 59 54.6 -4.4 4.4 19.36 0.07 53.13333 -5.86667
97 48 54.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 0.14 52.64286 4.642857
98 62 53.6 -8.4 8.4 70.56 0.14 52.30769 -9.69231
99 41 54.1 13.1 13.1 171.61 0.32 51.91667 10.91667
100 41 51.9 10.9 10.9 118.81 0.27 50.90909 9.909091
|e_t| (e_t)^2 |e_t/D_t|
 Bias 1.49 Bias 0.84
MAE 8.52 MAE 7.81
RMSE 10.38 RMSE 9.55
MAPE 18.86% MAPE 17.11%

2.15 4.6225 0.04

3.05 9.3025 0.06
5.6 31.36 0.11
22.45 504.0025 0.68
0.9 0.81 0.02
1.05 1.1025 0.02
7.55 57.0025 0.13
4.05 16.4025 0.07
4.55 20.7025 0.08
10.95 119.9025 0.17
11.25 126.5625 0.18
10.05 101.0025 0.16
6.052632 36.63435 0.10
10.05556 101.1142 0.24
20.17647 407.09 0.61
3.1875 10.16016 0.06
5.866667 34.41778 0.10
4.642857 21.55612 0.10
9.692308 93.94083 0.16
10.91667 119.1736 0.27
9.909091 98.19008 0.24