News analysis Health Business

UK’s late coming Consequences of Majid Al Futtaim opens

to Africa summit fake medicines Carrefour store in Kampala

Issue No. 606 Jan. 24 - 30 2020 Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8

Joint 2021
opposition candidate
impossible
Why Bobi Wine, Besigye,
Muntu can’t unite

www.independent.co.ug
 YOU BUY THE
TRUTH
WE PAY THE
PRICE

Independent Publications Limited, Plot 82/84, Kanjokya Street, P. O. Box 3304, Kampala, Uganda Tel: +256-312-637-391/ 2/ 3/ 4 Fax: +256-312-637-396
E-mail: editorial@independent.co.ug, advertising@independent.co.ug, circulation@independent.co.ug Website: www.independent.co.ug
 Do more with
Airtel Money
With you, always.
Dial *185#

Airtel is regulated by Uganda Communications Commission (UCC).

Contact Airtel Customer Care on 100 (toll-free) and UCC on 0800 222 777 (toll-free).

Jan. 24 - 30 2020 1
inbox

Issue No. 606 Jan. 24 - 30 2020

News analysis Business Health Arts Motoring

Cover story
Joint 2021 opposition candidate impossible
Why Bobi Wine, Besigye, Muntu can’t unite

5 The Week
30 Comments
UK aid package to boost
African financial markets Create industrial champions:
Companies in developing
countries should be supported
9 The Last Word
to become global players in
Inside Museveni’s 34 years: The sophisticated sectors
pros and cons of the President’s
long rule and what they portend 32 Health
for the country he has rebuilt
Onions and garlic may Protect
against breast cancer: Scientists
14 Analysis advise eating more onions and garlic
UK’s late coming to Africa: Britain’s
pledge to turbo-charge relations with
continent must compete with China
35 Arts & Culture
27 Business Tribal artefacts trending:
Ancient Africa spear sparks
Majid Al Futtaim opens Carrefour store bidding war at auction house
in Kampala: This development will stir
competition in the country’s retail business

MANAGING DIRECTOR: Andrew M. Mwenda WRITERS:Ronald Musoke, Ian Katusiime, Patricia Akankwatsa, Julius Businge.
MANAGING EDITOR: Joseph Were DESIGN: Sarah Ngororano
BUSINESS EDITOR: Isaac Khisa CARTOONIST: Harriet Jamwa

PUBLISHER: Independent Publications Limited, Plot 82/84, Kanjokya Street, P. O. Box 3304, Kampala, Uganda
Tel: +256-312-637-391/ 2/ 3/ 4 | Fax: +256-312-637-396 E-mail: editor@independent.co.ug | advertising@independent.co.ug
circulation@independent.co.ug | Website: www.independent.co.ug

2 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
 inbox

“I can tell you it is the duty of

security to see where Bobi Wine
is, for his safety. Whether they do
it convert, under whatever, they
must do it....because Bobi Wine is
an asset in this country, as per his
Prof. Edward Bantu (standing) from School of Phycology Makerere University inspects traffic police
(presidency) declaration.” Obiga
officers during the questionnaire answering session to assess the police officers’ mental Health at the Kania, minister of state for internal affairs
Central Police Station Kampala on January.09.   INDEPENDENT ALFRED OCHWO

(L-R) Uganda
Communications
Commission,
Spokesperson Ibrahim
Bbosa, deputy police
spokesperson Polly
Namaye and Kampala
Metropolitan deputy
spokesperson Luke
Owoyesigire address the
media over the arrest “The census should begin at the
of eight suspects for
alleged electronic fraud. local councils because they know
Bbosa said operations the households with albinos and
were conducted between
Commission and police.  data obtained should be sent to
INDEPENDENT/ALFRED the district authorities.”Speaker of
OCHWO
Parliament Rebecca Kadaga

Uganda Media Centre

Executive Director, Ofwono
Opondo announces
cabinet approval of
Shs 32bn for additional
emergency relief supplies
to the victims of floods,
landslides, windstorms,
hailstorms and lightening. 
INDEPENDENT/ALFRED “I had to go to the bush like
OCHWO you to win. I had to go to deep
to the countryside to get this
victory.”British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson to President Museveni during
the UK-Africa Investment summit

Teachers Pupils who were Money EC needs

1500 transferred across
the country
66152 ungraded from
2019 PLE results
Shs518bn to organize 2021
elections

Jan. 24 - 30 2020 3
week

Kasekende bows out of BOU

Last week, Louis Kasekende bid farewell
to staff at Bank of Uganda where he worked
as deputy governor in two stints. First from
1999-2002 and then from 2009 until now. “As
you already know, my contract as Deputy
Governor of Bank of Uganda came to an end
on January 14, 2020. I express my profound
gratitude to the appointing authority, H.E
President Museveni, for according me the
opportunity to represent the country in
various continental and international assign-
ments,” Kasekende wrote. As a young econ-
omist, Kasekende first worked for Bank of
Uganda in 1986 before leaving for positions
at the World Bank and the African Develop-
ment Bank. Whereas he was often lauded
as a brilliant economist, Kasekende’s final
years at the central bank were blighted by a
series of scandals that the bank was engulfed
in. First was in 2016 with the way in which
Crane Bank was sold which led to shocking
revelations on the internal workings of BOU
during a parliamentary inquest and then a
currency printing saga in 2019 that led to
the arrest of some managers. There were
persistent calls for Kasekende and his boss,
Governor Tumusiime Mutebile, to resign
to save the image of the bank. Mutebile’s
contract runs out in 2021 and it remains to
be seen whether he will follow in his former
deputy’s footsteps and quit. Kasekende add-
ed in his email. “As I reflect upon my time at
the bank, I am deeply grateful for all I have
met. Serving our country is a worthwhile
experience for all of us.”
Who will stop City Oilers? Seven titles in a row now
City Oilers lifted a sev- the team’s mentality stood work and team spirit are
enth successive National them in good stead. Team instilled in the players in
Basketball League trophy captain James Okello while spite of City Oil being the
on Jan. 19 after beating UCU appearing on a sports tele- most financially sound
Canons in a nail biting best vision talk show said the hoops team in the country.
of seven final series with a City Oilers are driven by the City Oilers narrowly missed
72-57 game result. The UCU singular ambition of win- out on the inaugural Bas-
team gave a challenge to the ning titles. Oilers Manager ketball Africa League (BAL),
City Oilers by dominating Grace Kwizera said the team a basketball tournament
the first two games of the derives some of its values on the continent that starts
series. The Oilers team had and ethos from the Mandela this year. Players, fans and
a difficult season with the Group who are the owners coaches have hailed City Oil-
team depleted by injuries of the basketball team and ers as the greatest basketball
but analysts and fans said added that ambition, hard team of all time in Uganda.
Police FDC clash in Jinja, Soroti at rallies
Supporters of Forum for Democratic Kiiza Besigye, who first held a rally outside
Change (FDC) clashed with Police along the Kyabazinga stadium before splitting the
Jinja-Iganga highway on Jan. 20 bringing group into three. Police also dispersed party
traffic to a standstill on the major highway. supporters who had escorted FDC president
FDC supporters were leading a procession Patrick Amuriat as he attempted to lead a
to commemorate 15 years of FDC. The rally in Soroti. The police towed away his car
supporters, armed with megaphones, amidst teargas and running battles. Besigye
stormed the highway in the afternoon to while in Jinja asked supporters to stand
mobilise passersby to support their party up against human rights violations meted
during the 2021 elections. The supporters against them by state agencies.
were led by former party president Dr

EYE CARE CENTRE

VILLAGE MALL
Bugolobi (On the 1st Floor)
+256 (0)41-4505 566
+256 (0)393 888 833
DOWNTOWN
KAMPALA BRANCH
(Plot 3 Johnstone Street)
+256 (0)414 257 759 /
Opticians
LUGOGO MALL GARDEN CITY MALL
(Next to Game) (Next to Stanbic Bank)
+256 (0) 41-4220 780 Ground floor
+256 (0) 392 264 422 +256 (0) 41-4237 700
Also open on Sundays 10:00am -2:00pm
+256 (0)392 265 500
ACACIA MALL KISEMENTI KAMPALA (U)
Free
Tel: +256 (0)41-4581 458 / +256 (0)392 267 700
Also open on Sundays 11:00 am -6:00 Pm Eye examination

+256 (0)393 264 400

Call: 0701/0712/0752/0772-786 400 E-mail: sales@eyecareug.com Website: www.eyecareug.com

4 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
 week

UK aid package to boost
African financial markets
Financial Sector Deepening Uganda
(FSDU) has welcomed a £15m com-
mitment from UK Aid, part of a £320m
package that will initiate an ambitious
new phase of financial sector development
across the continent. Announced ahead of
the UK-Africa Investment Summit Lon-
don, the package includes additional fund-
ing for 9 existing Financial Sector Deepen-
ing Programmes [FSDs] and to set up and
scale new FSDs in high-priority markets,
including Ethiopia, Ghana, Sierra Leone
and the West African Monetary Union.
The new commitment, announced by
Secretary of State Alok Sharma, represents
the start of an important new approach to
financial sector development in sub-Saha-
ran Africa. The package from UK Aid rec-
ognises that a comprehensive, integrated
approach to financial market development
in Africa is required to realise the conti-
nent’s potential and help meet the United
Nation’s global goals. The £320m commit-
ment provides funding for ambitious pro-
grammes that create financing solutions
for the opportunities and challenges faced
across Africa’s economies, from individ-
ual households and micro-enterprises to
business and infrastructure investment.
This means addressing the entire system
of finance from savings groups to capital
market development, and operating more
closely to the interface between finance
and the real world.
Ex Flying Squad Commander Herbert Muhangi gets bail
The General Court
Martial granted bail to
former Flying Squad
Commander Herbert
Muhangi on Jan.20 who is
facing charges of failure to
protect war materials and
aiding and abetting kidnaps
in Uganda. These are the
same charges his former
boss, ex-Police chief Gen.
Kale Kayihura is facing at
the same court. Muhangi
was first granted a non-cash
bail of Shs10million on
February 19, 2019, on health
Uganda to receive $600m in HIV and malaria grant
The Ministry of Health is set
to receive grants worth USD 600
million approved by the Global
Fund to tackle HIV, Tuberculosis
(TB) and Malaria. According to
Health Minister Dr Jane Ruth
Aceng, this additional funding
that will be reflected in the final
budget call circular for the FY
2020/21 budget is meant to give
the sector a boost since the coun-
try’s revenue collection is not enough to
cater for all the health needs. Of the USD 600
million, USD 260 million goes to malaria,
USD 289 million to HIV/AIDS and USD 29
presented to any court
after the re-arrest. When
Muhangi appeared in the
chambers of Lt General
Andrew Gutti, the Court
Martial Chairperson, and in
the company of two sureties,
his bail was reinstated.
Muhangi is jointly charged
grounds. However, he was together with six senior
rearrested immediately by police officers Atwooki
the Chieftaincy of Military Ndahura, Nixon Agasirwe,
Intelligence within the Richard Ndaboine, Patrick
precincts of the Makindye- Muramira, Jonas Ayebaza
based General Court and Kitagenda Abel
Martial. He was never Muyomba.
million to TB. The balance also
referred to as matching funds
will go into activities targeted
for specific populations. For
instance, USD 4.7 million will
go into ensuring young women
and adolescents get the care they
need and USD 2.5 million into
procurement of HIV self- testing
kits. USD 4.5million is to cater
for human rights-related activi-
ties and breaking social barriers that harbor
stigma whereas USD 3 million will go into
data science which involves awareness and
community information activities.

MPs, UPDF in impasse over lake deployment

The Uganda Peoples Defence Forces
(UPDF) have vowed not to get troops out
of fishing communities saying the army is
there to guard against illegal fishing. On the
other hand, Parliament has severally con-
demned the army for brutality it has exer-
cised in fishing communities in Kalangala
Island and around Lake Kyoga. In Decem-
ber, the Speaker of Parliament, Rebecca Kad-
aga, directed the UPDF Fisheries Protection
Unit to halt its operations on all water bodies
in the country for alleged mistreatment of
fishing communities but the directive was
ignored. One of the army commanders con-
templated suing the MPs for their actions
which he deemed malicious. UPDF Fisheries
Protection Unit have on several occasions
been implicated for harassing, torturing and
intimidating fishing communities in their
activities aimed at checking illegal fishing.

EYE CARE CENTRE

Opticians
VICTORIA MALL ENTEBBE Free
Eye examination
+256 (0)707 340 804 / +256 (0)392 203 023
Also open on Sundays 11:00am-4:00pm

For: Large selection of frames Sun Glasses Frame Repairs

Free Eye examination Contact lenses & Solutions Eye Pressure Examination All optical Accessories

Call: 071/0712/0752/0772-786 400 E-mail: sales@eyecareug.com

Jan. 24 - 30 2020 5
week

Trump’s impeachment trial US offers support to flood affected communities

kicks off in US Senate The U.S. government
is providing USD 100,000
to respond to the needs of
disaster-affected people in
Uganda as a result of exten-
sive flooding and landslides.
The Government of Uganda
has requested international
support. Heavy rains and
flooding that began in Sep-
tember 2019 have negatively
impacted nearly 300,000
people across Uganda. The
immediate needs of affected
populations include blan-
kets, shelter materials, soap,
jerrycans, mosquito nets,
medicine to treat water-
and vector-borne disease,
and food assistance. The
United States Agency for
International Development
(USAID) in Uganda is
awarding the international
disaster assistance funds
to Catholic Relief Services
(CRS) to support over 1,000
flood-affected individuals in
the Rwenzori sub-region.

The impeachment of US President Don-

ald Trump went to another level when a
trial started this week in the U.S. Senate.
Democrats have a host of witnesses lined
up to testify against the president in charges
where Trump is accused of abuse of pow-
er. Republicans in Senate have vowed to
subvert the trial with a threat to depose all
witnesses set to appear before the Senate.
Trump has hired a star-studded legal team
in his impeachment trial that includes
lawyers who got former US president Bill
Clinton impeached. Trump is currently in
Davos, Switzerland attending the annual
World Economic Forum meet.

6 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
Humour Did you know?

Kids ask
300
questions
a day?

Lwemiyaga county MP Sekikubo Theodore was arrested after

he attempted to forcefully enter Lwemiyaga cattle market.

A 2013 UK study
observed young
children and
recorded the
questions they
asked the adults
around them.
The children
The Brooking Institution has projected that Uganda will be tended to turn to
among Africa’s fastest growing economies this decade. their mothers for
answers, and these
moms could end
up answering an
average of nearly
300 questions
per day, or one
question every two-
and-a-half minutes,
the study found.
The moms reported
that the hardest
questions they were
asked included
“Why is water wet?”
and “What are
shadows made of?”
An investigation has found that fraud persists at the passport office despite the introduction of an online system

Jan. 24 - 30 2020 7
 News analysis Health Business
Outlawing political Impotence: Quest for Shs39tn budget
meetings in homes attractiveness to blame concerns

Issue No. 605 Jan. 17 - 23 2020

Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8

The 1000 ‘special’

Museveni trekkers
Why they matter more than

Inbox
the 195km trekked

Follow us on Twitter @
http://twitter.com/#!/ugandatalks

Follow us on Facebook @
www.facebook.com/TheIndependentMagazineUganda
www.independent.co.ug

Letters are
welcome ! Mwenda right on corruption
The Editor welcomes short and Refer to: “Museveni expressway is a disaster” Towers. It was total waste of
concise letters from our esteemed
readers on topical issues. Please opens a Pandora’s Box: (The Independent Jan.17). time and opportunity. Hope
send them to: How the president’s inter- I kinda agree with you on the Kampala-Jinja Express-
The Editor, The Independent vention to halt the pro- this one, Mwenda; especial- way does not come to this.
Publications Ltd, curement of Kampala-Jinja ly on the case of Pension Barnabas
P.O Box 3304,
Plot 82/84 Kanjokya St,
Kamwokya.
Kampala,Uganda. Johnson’s promise of friendly UK visas
Email: editor@independent.co.ug Refer to: “UK’s Johnson Independent online Jan.20). its den with a promise of
promises friendly visas plan Oooohhh pl..e…a…s…e freshly cut green grass!
post-Brexit: UK puts visas give me a break ! Friendly Godfrey Mubiru
into pitch for post-Brexit visas my foot. It is like a
Museveni hasn’t trade with Africa” (The leopard inviting a goat into
opened Pandora’s Box
Refer to: “Museveni opens a Pan-
Compensate Dunamiscoins scam victims
dora’s Box: How the president’s inter- Refer to: “Dunamiscoins financial space where there with the minister declaring
vention to halt the procurement of scam victims seek compensa- is neither investor protection the governor clueless about
Kampala-Jinja expressway is a disaster” tion from government” (The nor regulatory pureview.” cryptocurrencies.
(The Independent Jan.17). Corruption Independent Online Jan.16). A year later in May 2018 Given that these Ugandan
is stealing. It’s morally and ethically Government should com- during during the Africa investors made decisions to
wrong. The disadvantages far outweigh pensate these people because Blockchain Conference at invest basing on seemingly
the ‘benefits’ much as Mwenda seems to in 2017 Bank of Uganda Kampala Serena hotel, Pres- public assurances by very
be justifying it. I have not seen the cor- released a press statement ident Yoweri Museveni was credible and trustworthy
rupt use that money meaningfully, i.e. warning the general public. reported to have publically government-of-Uganda
to build a school or clinic. They take and It said: “whoever wishes to attacked Bank of Uganda’ officials and as result they
keep the money in their foreign bank invest their hard earned sav- Governor Mutebile for being lost large sums of money,
accounts instead. Mwenda narrative of ing in Cryptocurrency from “dogmatic” and unwilling to government of Uganda has
the constructor, slashing off 5% of the such as One-coin, Bitcoin, adapt to new technology.” an obligation to compensate
profit to pay bribes is wrong. I have seen Ripple, Peercoin, Namecoin, In 2019 the governor Mute- these Ugandan investors.
contractors doing shoddy work to cover Dogecoin Litecoin, Btyecoin, bile was again publically
up for the 5% that was paid as bribes. Primecoin, Blackcoin or any attacked by the Minister of Counsel Kimera
other digital forms of cur- Finance, Matia Kasaijja on the
Petero Rusongoza rency is taking a risk in the matter of crypto currencies,

BUNDLES IN TOWN
DATA

* T&C apply * Regulated by Uganda Communications Commission. CONNECTING COMMUNITIES

8 Jan. 24 - 30 2020

Inside Museveni’s 34 years
By Andrew M. Mwenda
The pros and cons of the President’s long rule and
what they portend for the country he has rebuilt
T
his week, President Yoweri Museveni
and his NRM celebrate 34 years in
power. Museveni inherited a country
whose state had disintegrated and
economy collapsed. The country had been
plagued by political instability manifest in
military coups and civil wars. In the seven
years between the overthrow of Idi Amin
in April 1979 and Museveni’s take over in
January 1986, Uganda had seven presidents,
an average of one president per year.
Uganda was so ungovernable the legendary
Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore once said it
could not recover even in 100 years.
Museveni’s takeover was, therefore, a
moment of great hope. Blood had been
shed, lives lost, educations sacrificed,
careers abandoned, families left behind,
and properties destroyed; all in the hope of
building a free, democratic and prosperous
country. This mood of optimism was
reflected in Museveni’s promise that NRM’s
takeover was “not a mere change of guard
but a fundamental change in the politics of
our country.” Looking at how much many
elite Ugandans have grown despondent
with his rule, it is easy to conclude that the
revolution has been betrayed. Indeed, many
of Museveni’s contemporaries have since
quit the NRM and written stinging criticism
of the president.
Yet this column is a sympathetic reflection
on the passions that animated NRM’s
struggle and the exaggerated expectations
many Ugandans had in it. Indeed, it is
apparent that Museveni, like so many other
politicians of post independence Africa,
grossly underestimated the challenges
of managing a poor country. He equally
overestimated his personal capability and
that of a revolutionary party and the state
as agents of social change. If Museveni
has failed to realise many of his dreams
and those of his admirers, it is because
his ambitions and their expectations were
unrealistic. Yet it would be unfair to say that
Museveni has been a failure. On the contrary
I think that on balance he has been one of
the most successful and influential leaders of
post-colonial Africa.
Museveni’s greatest achievement was
to stabilise the political dispensation. This
is reflected in three critical areas where
Uganda’s state fragility was most reflected:
incessant military coups and civil wars.
Museveni ended these and reestablished
the state’s monopoly over the exercise of
The Last Word
violence. This allowed him to build a stable
and continuous presidency that has lasted
nearly three and a half decades. To achieve
these aims, Museveni took effective personal
control over the security apparatus and
disciplined the army, making it subordinate
to his personal will. He also ensured good
relations with the western powers (much
about this later), and established some
degree of individual freedom.
Yet Museveni did not bring about a
“fundamental change in the politics of
our country.” Instead he mastered the
art of patronage backed by a good dose
of repression. His management of power
relations, therefore, has been largely the
same as other African leaders of old such as
Mobutu of former Zaire, Daniel arap Moi
of Kenya, Omar Bongo of Gabon etc. This
is largely because patronage and repression
are, across time and space, tested and proven
methods of managing power relations in
poor, backward agrarian societies. Indeed
today’s Western liberal democracies
managed power relations in similar fashion
when they were still poor and agrarian like
many African nations of today.
Museveni’s second greatest achievement
has been to initiate economic growth and to
sustain it over 34 years. Uganda’s economy
has grown at an annual average rate of
nearly 7% during his presidency, making
it among the best performing economies in
the world. GDP has expanded from under
US$4 billion (after correcting for distortions
engendered by the official exchange rate
that existed in 1986 and then adjusting this
to inflation) to US$34 billion today. That
is a performance few nations across time
and space have registered over such a long
period.
As a result of stability and sustained
growth, Uganda has been able to provide
an increasing basket of public goods and
services to her citizens – roads, schools,
hospitals, dams, water-treatment plants
alongside healthcare, education, clean water
and electricity. While many Ugandans (and
other African elites generally) expect these
public goods and services to be of high
quality and widely spread, public revenues
in our country are too low to satisfy these
expectations. Ugandans are dissatisfied
with the state, not because the country is
not improving its ability to serve them,
but because their expectations grow much
faster than state capacity. Increased revenue
opinion
has also given Museveni more resources to
buy off opponents, reward his loyalists and
equip the army and police to crack down on
those who dissent.
What then have been Museneni’s major
failures? The source of his economic
failure is in the nature of alliance he built
during the reconstruction phase. The
president allied with Western powers. This
allowed him to access Western financial
assistance but on condition that Uganda
allows western direction of the policy-
making, policy orientation and policy
implementation process. Consequently
public policy was heavily tilted in favour
of multi national capital. As a result local
capital was either displaced or its growth
stifled through policies such as privatization,
liberalization and deregulation. Thus
today the commanding heights of
economy – telecommunications, banking,
manufacturing, etc. – are under the control
of foreign capital.
On the political front, Museveni’s other
major failure has been inability to organize
a transition of power from him to the
next generation or next president. This is
especially important in a country that has
never seen a peaceful transfer of power from
one government to another or from one
president to another. For as long as there is
no such a peaceful transition, it remains to be
seen whether the stability he has created can
outlast him. In fact this long rule has stifled
the evolution of institutions that can act
independent of how he personally exercises
power. This leaves us a vulnerable state.
Hence, the longer Museveni has stayed
in power, the more monarchical his rule
has become. Today authority continues to
be transmitted from the president (through
personal relations) to his close associates
such as family, relatives and personal
friends and from them to other associates
related by personal ties of their own. This
is because the longer he governs the more
perverse his personal influence on the state
gets and therefore the more dependent
on him our national institutions become.
This has created a real risk that without
him the state could again disintegrate. As
Museveni and NRM celebrate 34 years,
this is the issue to ponder.
amwenda@independent.co.ug
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 9
COVER STORY

Joint 2021
opposition candidate
impossible
Why Bobi Wine, Besigye,
Muntu can’t unite

By Independent Team

10 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
G
en. Mugisha Muntu,
the leader of Uganda’s
newest political party;
the Alliance for National
Transformation (ANT)
faces a crucial test this
June when it holds its first Delegates
Conference.
Muntu’s position as leader is not
under threat but his reputation is.
And the threat Muntu faces is one: can
he cause a sizable number of MPs to
switch from the other parties to him?
Muntu’s fate could determine how
his nascent party relates with other
politicians, formations, and parties in
negotiations for a single joint candidate
to challenge President Yoweri
Museveni in 2021.
This is an urgent issue since the first
polls for the next general elections will
be held nationwide on April 20; just
slightly over two months from today,
according to the revised key milestones
for the 2019/20-2020/21 election
roadmap.
This milestone is a critical indicator
for those in the race; especially those
aspiring to challenge President Yoweri
Museveni in the 2021 polls.
Muntu is one of many who have
signaled intent. But three critical
questions remain unanswered. Will
the opposition parties, organisations,
formations, and individuals this time
unite behind a single joint candidate
or will it be a repeat of 2011 and 2016
when they failed? Who would be the
desired candidate if the opposition
fields a joint candidate? What will be
the fate of the opposition should they
field many candidates instead of one?
If Muntu succeeds in causing major
defections from other parties into
his Alliance, he will have created
a psychological belief that he is a
winning candidate for an opposition
coalition. This is based on the widely
held view among researchers on
coalitions that “opposition coalitions
only work when they appear capable
of winning and thus prompt members
of the ruling party to defect. These
defectors not only bolster the ranks
of the opposition, but can bring
supporters with them and sway
undecided voters.” This view was
first made by the American political
scientist and professor of government,
Nicolas Van de Walle.
That could partly explain why, when
Muntu left FDC in a huff in October
2018, there was wide promotion of
speculation that many of the FDC
members of parliament and leaders
at many levels would quit FDC to
join him. Over a year later, it has not
happened.
According to most analysts, local and
international, Muntu’s political weight
will be enhanced if he can get MPs
to switch from the leading Forum for
Democratic Change (FDC) to join his
Alliance. His weight would be doubled
if he can cause defections from the
NRM. If he cannot cause that switch,
instead of becoming a major political
force, Muntu will become another
political fuss.
Kyadondo East MP Robert Ssentamu
Kyagulanyi faces a similar test and has
suffered a similar fate but to a lesser
extent. Since unveiling his amorphous
People Power grouping, it was
expected that many leading politicians
would flock to his camp. That has not
happened although some MPs have
resorted to donning the red colour as a
symbol of opposition to Museveni.
In 2016 TDA,
Besigye and
Mbabazi each
sought to woo
the smaller DP,
SDA and others to
their side. Both
attempts failed.
If in 2021, Bobi
Wine, Besigye,
and Muntu seek
to dominate the
other, the effort
will fail
Strong will, less self-interest
needed
Uncertainty around the level of
nationwide support for Muntu and
Bobi Wine leaves only perennial
presidential contender, Kizza
Besigye, as the bull in the opposition
kraal. It also makes any alliance
among opposition politicians and
formations to be that between Besigye
and minnows. But, at the moment it
COVER STORY
appears unlikely that Besigye will
cause major defections from other
political camps to his. According to
analysts, the failure of Mugisha Muntu,
Bobi Wine, or Besigye is a signal that
the opposition will not field a joint
candidate against Museveni in 2021.
“DP wants to field someone and
so does People Power, so there is no
coherent discussion,” says Richard
Sewakiryanga, executive director of
Uganda National NGO Forum, an
independent platform for all NGOs.
“It has always been tough…uniting
behind a single candidate. There
are many ingredients that should be
involved.”
He says there should be a build-up
of consensus, a minimum agenda and
what is collectively important for the
opposition but that has not happened.
“Most actors are now pushing
back against government excesses.
By the time you get into choosing a
candidature, you will not have invested
enough time in the process.You cannot
unite under a single candidate unless
there has been consensus. There has
been no considered discussion under
whom to unite; Mugisha Muntu has
just launched his own party and he
is building his bases, FDC there is a
mixed picture,” Sewakiryanga says.
Former minister and Democratic
Party MP and national leader, Zachary
Olum, says having a joint candidate
would be “desirable” but it “requires a
lot of strong will and less self-interest.”
That could explain why a joint
candidate has not emerged. That could
change as the race to the 2021 general
election intensifies starting next
month, when the Electoral Commission
displays the National Voters Register
and the registers of Special Interest
Groups.
Two months later in April, the EC is
scheduled to announce the nomination
of candidates dates and immediately
trigger a rapid series of nominations
from village level right to MPs and the
presidency in August.
Bobi Wine and his People Power
group, perennial opposition candidate
Besigye, and untried aspirant Mugisha
Muntu of the Alliance for National
Transformation (ANT) are being
watched closely.
Some would-be likely obvious
candidates, such as FDC President
Patrick Oboi Amuriat; who is the
leader of the biggest opposition
party in parliament, appear to prefer
remaining outside the ring, while
perennial escorts Norbert Mao,
Michael Mabikke, and Samuel Lubega
from the Democratic Party (DP) main
stream and its splinters could spring a
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 11
cover story
surprise entrant.
There could also be the usual
maverick entrants. The joker in the
2016 presidential race, Joseph Elton
Mabirizi has made some noises. The
other jokers of 2016, Abed Bwanika,
Faith Kyala, and Benon Biraro are
quiet but another could pop up in their
place.
This pack of candidates is normally
seen as spoilers because most of the
opposition strategists and supporters
appear to believe that a single, joint
opposition candidate is the best option.
“Fragmenting your forces dissipates
energy according to the law of
physics,” said Zachary Olum who has
in the past been involved in discussion
on the DP side.
He told The Independent that “a joint
opposition candidate is a good idea.”
“The opposition would be a much
stronger force to reckon with looking
at the way things are,” he said. Zachary
Olum is describing what coalition
theorists call the ‘signaling effect
theory’; where candidates demonstrate
to voters a willingness to govern
together.
Having a single, joint opposition
candidate is mathematically
unchallengeable. The candidate would
12 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
have a 50% probability of winning.
“We (opposition) must have a unified
candidate and we are already in talks
on how to go about it,” Besigye said is
a New Year message.
Election results of previous years
also appear to support the option of
single opposition candidate. In all
presidential elections, Museveni has
got the most votes followed by the
strongest opposition candidate. The
rest have secured less than 1% of the
vote. In 2016 Museveni won with 60%
of the vote and Besigye was second
best with 36% of the vote. The other
six candidates on the ballot collectively
secured less than 4% of the votes.
It happened even in the first national
assembly election in 1962 which was
contested by the Uganda Peoples
Congress, the Democratic Party,
the Uganda National Congress, the
Uganda National Union, the Bataka
Party and Independents. The UPC won
with 51.9% followed by DP with 46%.
The rest collectively got about 2% of
the vote.
In 1980, UPC again won with 74 seats
and DP got 54. The Conservative Party
got zero and Museveni’s UPM got one
seat.
But even in 1996, when longtime
foes, UPC and DP ganged up against
Museveni in the Inter-Party Forces for
Cooperation (IPFC), a loose alliance,
Museveni whipped them easily;
winning with 74%of the vote against
24% of joint candidate Paul Kawanga
Ssemogerere.
The previous results appear to
predict that if Bobi Wine, Kiza Besigye,
Mugisha Muntu separately ran against
Museveni in 2021 as they are seen as
the biggest contenders, they would
lose. In fact, only one of them will
garner a respectable percentage of
votes and the other will collectively
get less than 4% of the vote. However,
as the 1996 Ssemogerere results show
they could support a join candidate
and still lose.
Persuade the voters
An interesting academic position on
this is that whether they run separately
or field a joint candidate, opposition
candidates and parties need to
persuade the electorate that they are a
better alternative to the incumbent.
Part of the problem appears to be
what happened in 2011 and 2016 when
opposition politicians that proposed to
rally behind one candidate pledged to
win together but did not show voters

a plan of how they would govern
together.
Even at party level, where
recommendations are made to voters
to strategically choose a candidate
from another party but the strategy
does not include having shared
campaign manifestoes, a joint
candidate fails.
Instead, what is seen in attempts
at alliances in 2011 and 2016 was
a strategy of the larger formations
seeking to increase their base by
co-opting smaller parties. In 2011,
it was the UPC under Olara Otunu
which sought to get the backing of the
rest, including FDC.
In 2016 TDA, Besigye and Mbabazi
each sought to woo the smaller DP,
SDA and others to their side. Both
attempts failed. If in 2021, Bobi Wine,
Besigye, and Muntu seek to dominate
the other, the effort will fail.
But does anyone believe that Bobi
Wine could end up with 40% of the
vote, for example, and Besigye 1%,
Mugisha Muntu1%, and any others
2%?
If the answer is no, what is likely to
be the process and result of the 2021
presidential election race?
Nicole Beardsworth, a South
African political analyst and academic
researcher on Uganda, Zambia and
Zimbabwe, has written extensively on
pre-election alliances in Uganda. Soon
after the 2016 election, she wrote an
interesting article on the debate titled
“Uganda: The opposition’s missed
opportunity in parliamentary and
local elections.”
In it, Beardsworth writes that
The Democratic Alliance (TDA), a
coalition of seven opposition parties
and two pressure groups, hoped
that the combined clout of Mbabazi
and Besigye could truly challenge
Museveni but ego and distrust saw
Mbabazi and Besigye deciding to run
on separate platforms.
In another article: ‘Why do
opposition coalitions succeed or fail?’,
Beardsworth writes about Senegal,
Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,
Mauritius, Nigeria, Gambia, and
Kenya where opposition parties
joined forces to defeat the incumbent
president and ended years of one-
party dominance.
Before their win in 2002, Kenya’s
opposition parties had in 1992 and
1997 separately won a cumulative 60%
of the vote but lost to the incumbent
who individually won more votes than
any party. But an opposition coalition
lost in Zimbabwe.
Beardsworth asks: Why do coalitions
sometimes become more than the sum
Joseph Mabirizi
Michael Mabikke
Abed Bwanika
of their parts and generate a huge
surge of support? Why do they often
fragment and collapse?
She quotes political scientist Nicolas
Van de Walle’s view that “opposition
coalitions only work when they appear
capable of winning and thus prompt
members of the ruling party to defect.
These defectors not only bolster the
cover story
ranks of the opposition, but can bring
supporters with them and sway
undecided voters.”
But, she says, it can be difficult to
encourage members of the ruling party
to cross the aisle and when they do, it
can be tough to persuade opposition
supporters to vote for someone
who was, until recently, part of the
government. According to her, that is
a problem FDC faces.
She argues that to form a successful
coalition, opposition parties need
to develop very strategic decision-
making, reduce uncertainty and build
trust. They should also focus more
on intra- and inter-party dynamics
and competition over shared electoral
constituencies.
She cites how, in 2016, the FDC
faced a dilemma when the opposition
alliance it was part of voted for
the recently-expelled former Prime
Minister Amama Mbabazi to be its
flag-bearer. The FDC decided to leave
the coalition.
But Beardsworth argues elsewhere
that TDA was arguably first and
foremost an anti-Museveni movement,
meaning that it was always likely
to focus on the presidential race.
This perhaps makes sense in that
Uganda’s political system heavily
favours the executive branch and
invests huge power in the presidency.
Nevertheless, the simple failure to
coordinate effectively in the local
and parliamentary polls with TDA’s
demise is a missed opportunity for the
opposition more broadly.
She makes similar points in essays
such as one titled “Challenging
dominance: the opposition, the
coalition and the 2016 election in
Uganda.”
According to its spokesperson,
Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda, the FDC
has been pushing some innovative
ideas that could result in a joint
opposition presidential candidate in
2021. In an interview with a journalist,
Ssemujju said the FDC proposal is to
let the party leaders select eminent
individuals of integrity who have no
interest to stand for any office and task
them with guiding political parties to
arrive at a joint candidate.
“The moment you leave it to the
heads of political parties and likely
candidates, each will seek their own
advantage,” Ssemujju reportedly told
the journalist, “You will have meetings
for three months and then leave the
way you came.” He said this is what
failed the previous attempts at a joint
candidate in 2011 and 2016. Will 2021
be different?
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 13
news analysis
President Museveni at the anti-corruption walk last December. Fighting corruption has been one of the biggest failures of the NRM government.
34 years in power
The successes and the challenges of NRM
By Ian Katusiime
T
he ruling party, the National Resis-
tance Movement (NRM), is marking
Liberation Day January 26 in Ibanda
District, western Uganda.
Liberation Day commemorates the NRM
capture of power in 1986 after a five-year
guerrilla war. The 34th anniversary will be
marked at St. George’s Core Primary Teacher
College in Kagongo division, Ibanda munic-
ipality under the theme of “celebrating the
NRM/National Resistance Army (NRA)
patriotic struggle that ushered national unity
and social economic transformation”.
This year’s commemoration comes at a
time when the NRM and its leader President
Yoweri Museveni are claiming an absolute
hold on power, with control of the military
and huge majorities in parliament and local
electable offices.
At the same time, President Museveni’s
government is battling unprecedented levels
of crime in the community, corruption in
high offices, and rebellion in its ranks.
Just a day to the celebrations, on Jan.25,
the party is slated to hold a delegates confer-
14 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
ence. But the event has been clouded in mis-
understanding over the fate of 30 MPs who
refused to support the party when it moved
to remove from the constitution the 75-year
age-limit that could have barred Museveni
from contesting in 2021.
Although the age-limit was expunged
from the constitution and Museveni is free
to run again, the bitter taste of the battles
fought to achieve it remain.
The NRM Secretary General Kasule
Lumumba sought to play the populist card
of extremism by locking the 30 MPs out of
the Jan.25 delegates’ conference.
But soberer minds, led by the party Legal
Director, Oscar Kihiika, ruled Lumumba’s
order to be outside the party laws and the
MPs are now free to attend.
Patrick Oshabe Nsamba, the MP for
Kassanda County North who is one of the
MPs bearing the `rebel’ tag because he vot-
ed against the age limit amendment, says
the Jan. 25 delegates’ conference is a ploy
by NRM to subvert the court case filed by
the NRM MPs challenging the legality of
the decision by the party Central Executive
Committee (CEC) endorsing Museveni as
the unchallenged sole NRM presidential
candidate for 2021.
Nsamba and others sued the CEC, which
is the highest decision making organ of
NRM. The decision by CEC was made in
February 2019 and the Delegates Conference
is expected to endorse it.
“We have been waiting for a judgment
while we are protesting the decision by
CEC,” he says. “Now the NRM delegates’
conference will endorse the sole candidature
and they will say matters have been overtak-
en by events.”
“I don’t expect much debate or anybody
to be given space to offer divergent views
(during the conference).
He says, at 34, NRM should be debating
transition and how to take the country for-
ward.
“Instead of Mr. Museveni gifting this
country a peaceful transition, he thinks he is
the only one who can make a contribution.
He appoints CEC, NEC and everybody
else,” Nsamba told The Independent.
Solomon Silwany, MP for Bukooli Central
and the vice chair of the NRM caucus denied
the delegates conference is about endorsing

Museveni as the sole candidate.
“We are not going to Namboole (venue) to
endorse Museveni; we have a big agenda,”
he told The Independent, “We are going
to handle two issues; clauses on voting
and NRM primaries. There will be another
delegate’s conference in June after the new
structure.”
Even after 34 years in power, Museveni
appears to have a sense of his failing mis-
sion.
While in the bush, he and his senior
fighters and colleagues, wrote a 10-Point
programme that they pledged would guide
their administration. Point Number 7 prom-
ised the elimination of corruption and abuse
of power.
But just weeks to the Liberation Day
anniversary, Museveni was leading a protest
walk on Kampala city streets against run-
away corruption. He was lashed by critics
who said his walking on the streets Kampala
while buffeted by heavily armed guards
show his strategy against corruption has
failed.
Soon after, he led another walk of 195km
in the former `Luweero triangle’ where
he fought his guerrilla war, and appeared
appalled by the poverty, destitution of his
former fighters and the lack of government
services.
Images of Museveni dishing out army
ration biscuits and wads of cash to desper-
ate elderly citizens kneeling before him
appeared to portray how far Museveni has
shifted from his Marxist revolutionary ideas
of 40 years ago to embrace the neo patrimo-
nialism that he was opposed to.
Big numbers
Where critics say the party has failed on
fighting corruption and effective gover-
nance, the NRM has maintained an unas-
sailable lead in party numbers. The NRM
enjoys a vast majority in parliament and uses
caucus as the de facto parliament.
Party leaders say the big numbers are an
immense advantage during election time.
In a previous interview, Richard Todwong,
the Deputy Secretary General of NRM, said
the party’s big numbers are proof of NRM’s
invincibility and is happy that the growing
trend is unlikely to be reversed soon.
“This country has 40 million people of
whom 16.5 million are registered voters. Of
those 16 million, 13 million are NRM voters.
So we have three quarters of the national
register,” Todwong said.
Todwong said 75% of the LC members at
LC 3 and LC5 level are NRM in addition to
the 13 million voters who he said are NRM
supporters on the national register. In 2018,
the NRM won 69% of the LC 1 elections,
independents (most allied to NRM) took
22% and the combined opposition had a
measly 9%. Of the 66 Independent MPs, 44
are allied to the NRM.
Today, when a candidate stands for an
election on the NRM ticket, they have an
almost guaranteed chance of winning.
One could argue that had the lifting of
the presidential age limit been subjected to
a referendum in 2017, Museveni would not
have had his way given how unpopular the
amendment was across the country. As the
MPs received threats in their constituencies,
they found refuge in the House where NRM
invoked its numerical strength to amend the
constitution to remove the age limit.
Security, once a forte of the NRM, has
been a nightmare in the last four years.
President Museveni’s solution has been the
rushed recruitment of youth aged between
18 and 30 as Local Defence Units (LDUs) as
a counter measure to the rampant killings
and violent crime in Kampala and areas of
Greater Masaka.
As he has grown
older and geared
towards political
survival,
Museveni’s hand
on managing
security
and policing
appears to have
weakened
Experts said the LDUs were a risk factor
themselves given that Museveni publicly
said they would only be paid for a few
months, among other factors. There were
fears over armed LDUs roaming the streets
at night penniless. This is in addition to the
already deactivated crime preventers who
had a modicum of military training when
they were under the police during the reign
of former Inspector General of Police (IGP)
Gen. Kale Kayihura.
After he fired Kayihura in early 2018,
Museveni has continued to lambast the
police for using outmoded methods of polic-
ing seemingly oblivious of the fact that he is
Commander in Chief.
While addressing the 25th Police Council
at police headquarters in November, Musev-
eni, ironically said the police should adopt
a colonial era model for managing crime
“because the colonialists didn’t have enough
resources, their plan was through the chiefs
– Muluka and sub-county chiefs.”
“They (chiefs) would call the tenda (police
news analysis
patrol). I closely monitored it between 1951
and 1958. I could see these people manage
huge areas using a skeleton number of police
officers,” Museveni said in response to IGP
Okoth Ochola who requested the President
for more personnel.
As he has grown older and geared
towards political survival, Museveni’s hand
on managing security and policing appears
to have weakened. As the murders of high
profile individuals and kidnaps took a toll
on the nation, Museveni has gambled from
one strategy to another. First was addressing
parliament and even recommending ban-
ning the wearing of hoods in urban areas.
The next was a decision that appeared to be
buck passing. In October 2019, Museveni
tasked Sabiiti Muzeyi, the deputy IGP, to
come up with a plan to fight urban crime in
a mere two days.
On the question of whether NRM is
beyond redemption? Crispin Kaheru, a civil
society activist, asks “Redemption form
what and to what?” He tells The Independent
“Maybe the NRM has served its purpose
and is continuing to, according to its creator
and vision bearer.”
Kaheru says “It is still delivering on that as
we shall confirm when its top organs meet
this week.” He asks, “Were the current func-
tionaries ever a part of it from start? What’s
their claim?”
The functionaries Kaheru may have been
referring to include Justine Lumumba who
as secretary general is a high ranking mem-
ber of the NRM in spite of being virtually
unknown a decade ago. She replaced former
prime minister and secretary general, Ama-
ma Mbabazi.
But, as the party marks 34 years in power,
Mbabazi could be coming back to play an
outsize role in his former party. Mbabazi fell
out with Museveni in 2014 and was sacked
from both positions that year. The two com-
rades have maintained contact since their fall
out and have been seen in jovial moments in
public.
The two have worked together for a peri-
od close to fifty years since Museveni formed
Front for National Salvation (FRONASA)
in 1971. Photos of Mbabazi and Museveni
together that circulated on New Years’ Eve
sparked the rumours of the reunion.
In an interview with The Independent,
former minister and former guerilla in the
NRA, Jim Muhwezi, likened the NRM to a
tree that sheds its leaves.
“Others fall off and others grow, for exam-
ple, some people disagreed on term limits
and they left,” he said.
Faced with increasing corruption, inci-
dents of abuse of power and insecurity, the
NRM party perhaps needs to be focusing
less on its leaves which fall and re-grow and
more on its roots, which are the pledges it
made when it captured power.
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 15
NEWS ANALYSIS
Divisions in Finance
over URA money
Top officials clash over budget
deficits, new administrative units
By Julius Businge
T
he Uganda Revenue Authority
(URA) is having a hard time meeting
its targets and the fall-out is leading
to fights between the tax body, Min-
istry of Finance technocrats and their politi-
cal supervisors.
The key issues of disagreement are budget
deficits and creation of new administrative
political units.
The two issues are critical because they
impact service delivery and performance of
the economy.
Last fiscal year, URA had a revenue col-
lection target of Shs16.3 trillion but collected
Shs16.6 trillion; approx. Shs300billion extra.
This year, the target is Shs20 trillion but after
six months, URA has an 8% deficit. The
cause of the deficit has sparked disagree-
ments between URA Commissioner Gen-
eral Doris Akol, Secretary to the Treasury
Keith Muhakanizi and Minister of State for
Finance David Bahati, which were on public
display before Parliament’s Finance Com-
mittee which is finalising the 2020/21 budget.
A tough-talking Keith Muhakanizi was
the first to tiff on Jan.09 when he appeared
before the Committee to respond to among
other things the reasons behind Uganda’s
continuous recording of budget deficits.
Instead of taking blame, Muhakanizi played
victim.
“When you create permanent structures
like cities, we can’t cry over something you
have created,” he told the MPs.
“These things are created without my
knowledge,” he added, “When you increase
wages, that is cabinet and president, remem-
ber these are powerful people. How can
I manage when powerful people aren’t
respecting my advice?”
Muhakanizi who led a team of top finance
technocrats spoke as the Minister of State for
Finance, David Bahati, looked on.
“When I go naked, ministers get angry,”
he said but continued. He explained that the
current system of the Ministry of Finance
makes the secretary to treasury a power-
ful person yet they should not be because
they are not in position to question certain
actions.
But when Doris Akol, the Commissioner
16 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
President Museveni
Keith Muhakanizi
General of URA appeared before the same
Committee on Jan. 14 to explain why she
had missed the target by 8%, she blamed
Ministry of Finance officials.
She told the Committee that URA could
fail to hit its collection target of Shs20.3 tril-
lion partly because it is “unsupported” and
imposed by the Ministry of Finance which
supervises URA.
Akol said the Medium Term Expenditure
Framework; the blueprint for the current
financial year planning had projected a tar-
get of Shs18.3 trillion and not the Shs20.3tril-
lion ‘imposed’ by the Ministry. She said the
Ministry had made subsequent additions
to reach the Shs20.3 trillion which is unsup-
ported in the economic assumptions of this
year’s revenue target. Akol said that the nor-
mal increment in revenue target has always
been Shs1.5 trillion per year which is in line
with the year GDP growth.
She added that the target was revised by
the Ministry because there are new expendi-
ture requirements which have to be financed
through revenue collection.
Akol presented a summary of revenue
collected for the half year (July - December)
and said gross revenue collection to tar-
get was 92.97% (Approx.9.2 trillion) – out
of which domestic tax was Shs5.6 trillion
and international/customs tax was Shs3.5
trillion. Net cumulative revenue from July
– December grew at 11.21% to Shs9.0trillion
in FY2019/20 compared to Shs8.1trillion in
FY2018/19.
Akol told the committee that an unregu-
lated informal sector and under declaration
of rental income were negatively impacting
revenue collection.
She admitted said many corporate entities
that own rental properties avoid paying
rental tax because of a policy design loop-
hole which allows them to expense expendi-
ture against their rental income.
Akol said big rental earners, usually
corporate entities who are supposed to pay
most rental income, do not pay because
the policy allows them to expense all their
deductions against all the incomes that they
earn.
Disagreement unavoidable
After watching the spectacle, Fred Muhu-
muza, a development economist and former
advisor to the Minister of Finance told The
Independent in an interview that public dis-
agreements between URA and the Ministry
of Finance officials could be a sign of “lack of
harmony between URA and Finance in their
daily work”.
“And that is not a good thing,” he said,
“the government is not one; it is still operat-
ing in silos.”
He said, however, disagreements between
URA and Ministry of Finance are unavoid-
able.
“Doris Akol is dealing with the realities
on the ground and the Ministry of Finance is
dealing with the assumptions,” Muhumuza
said, “Some of those assumptions do not
come through.”
Muhumuza said generally the economy
has not grown as fast as expected and it is
causing problems for the government.
“Demand is very slow and income tax
is not growing because not many jobs are
being created,” he told The Independent.
Muhumuza said that one of the assump-
tions the MoFPED relied on to set the
2019/20 revenue target was the Final Invest-
ment Decision in the oil sector which was
supposed to come in August but has not
come.
He said that this would have meant that
people investing in the oil sector would
by now have brought in a lot of money for
investments. But that did not happen and
there is no way URA can tax what has not
happened. That is affecting the economy
greatly, according to Muhumuza.

The other issue Muhumuza talks about
is performance of international taxes. He
says international trade is changing, where
experts are saying that the tax authority
should facilitate trade and not tax trade – the
assumption is that URA facilitates traders so
they perform well, make profit which could
be taxed– that too has not happened.
Senior officials at the Ministry of Finance
who spoke on condition of anonymity to The
Independent on Jan.20 appeared to agree
with Muhumuza.
Even Henry Musasizi, the chairman of the
Finance Committee appeared unsatisfied
with Akol’s explanation and invited her to
reappear alongside the Minister of Finance
to explain further. Musasizi told The Inde-
pendent on Jan.15 that the Committee had
summoned the Minister of Finance to appear
to clarify on how they arrived on the revenue
target for FY2019/2020.
One official said Akol should have been
more direct in her explanations to the Parlia-
ment Committee because lack of compliance
by taxpayers is only part of the story.
The official explained that average reve-
nue growth has been 13% year-on-year, but
this year so far, it is about 7% which means
there are more problems away from the oth-
er factors.
“There is something that needs to be
explained,” the official said.
The official said that in setting the target,
the ministry looks at projections of economic
growth, inflation, new policies on taxation,
and compliance efforts on the side of URA.
The official said URA’s problem is that
the revenue collection for FY2019/20 is “too
ambitious”.
The official said Akol should have made
this point before the committee instead of
claiming the target is “unsupported”. Akol
should have said there are certain projected
revenues that have not materialised that
might make it hard for her to collect the
Shs20.3 trillion.
For instance, the official said government
was supposed to start a rental solution
which should have fetched Shs157 billion
which has not started. The other was the
proposal to implement the digital stamps
solution on excisable goods which is only
going to be implemented for a few months
of the financial year. Also, the government
thought it would get about $100million
(Approx.Shs370bn) from the MTM license
(factored to come in September) which did
not come through. “Those factors could have
partially led to the shortfall for the half year,”
the official said.
Museveni to blame
A ministry official also said the entities in
question are not divided because they are
ideally saying the same thing.
Muhakanizi and Akol are powerful indi-
viduals and one would expect them to speak
the same language given their critical role in
driving the economy.
Muhakanizi was appointed permanent
secretary in May 2013. He has over the years
been involved in designing policies that
are critical in driving economic growth and
social economic transformation.
Akol on the other hand has been CG since
2014. She has recorded mixed performance
since her appointment. In 2014/15, she
recorded a surplus of Shs139 billion but has
since been reporting shortfalls.
In FY2015/16 she reported Shs404bn
as shortfall, in FY2016/17, she reported
Shs500bn as deficit and in FY2017/18, and
the revenue body recorded Shs606bn as
deficit. Akol only reported improved perfor-
mance after many bad years with Shs300bn
as surplus. She might be anxious to maintain
a positive run and is frustrated by politically
driven targets that undermine her goal.
A significant amount of money that Akol
collects goes into paying salaries and allow-
ances for political representatives and meet-
ing costs for politically created administra-
tive units which Muhakanizi is opposed to.
According to the Ministry of Local Gov-
ernment Statistical Abstract of 2018, Uganda
has 127 districts, 250 constituencies and 1,
293 Sub-counties/town councils.
Other independent researchers have also
expressed dissatisfaction on creation of new
administration units because they cannot be
funded by the budget.
“Government should uphold the mora-
torium on creation of new districts,” reads
part of a 2019 report compiled by Advocates
Coalition for Development and Environment
(ACODE) titled: Decentralization in Uganda
– Trends, achievements, challenges and pro-
posals for consolidation. The report says that
there have been challenges related to inad-
Doris Akol
Fred Muhumuza
Jan. 24 - 30 2020
NEWS ANALYSIS
equate financing and investment in human
resources and facilities, weak systems and
coordination, conflicting legislations and
local leadership incompetence.
Muhumuza faults Muhakanizi for issuing
Certificates of Financial Implication to pave
way for the creation of new administrative
units yet the latter argues there is no money
to fund their operations.
“Most of these (administrative units) can-
not be financed by the economy anymore,”
Muhumuza said.
He said the buck stops with President
Yoweri Museveni because he is at the helm
of all these things.
Muhumuza said Museveni is in charge of
creating the new entities for political reasons
but he (Museveni) now needs to tone down
his political pursuit to reflect the realities that
are binding on government.
He added that pressure is catching up
with Museveni and he is starting to realise
the restrictions on the budget which has
already seen government going for non-con-
cessional debt from banks leaving the real
lenders who give cheap money like China.
He says concessional lenders are begin-
ning to rethink about Uganda’s ability to
manage the debt.
Going into the 2021 elections, Muhumuza
said that the new administration units that
were already created gives Museveni polit-
ical capital even when they have funding
challenges.
“We are going to see him (Museveni)
slowing down his leg on pushing for their
actual implementation after all he has
already picked political capital through their
creation,” Muhumuza said.
But he has to put MPs and other Council-
ors in some of those districts which will cost
the budget and keep pushing the deficit out,
he added.
Finance Committee Chairperson Musaazi
attempted to justify the political strategy on
creation of new administration units. Speak-
ing about the executive (Museveni) which
creates them, Parliament which passes them,
and the Ministry of Finance that endorses
them using the certificate of financial impli-
cation, Musaazi appeared helpless.
“There are things which come to Parlia-
ment and you do not reject them because of
the political implications,” he said.
He said: “If one comes from a county and
it is being made a district, even when you
don’t believe in the creation of the district,
can you go against the wishes of the people
you represent?”
But he added: “some of these administra-
tive structures are a stress to the budget and
many are not functioning because of budget
constraints.”
He said parliament will now identify bud-
geting and taxing risks and gaps recommend
what should be done.
17
NEWS ANALYSIS
President Museveni poses for a group photo during the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London.   COURTESY PHOTO
UK’s late coming to Africa
Britain’s pledge to turbo-charge relations
with continent must compete with China
By Ronald Musoke
T
he first ever UK-Africa Investment
Summit held in London on Jan. 20 is
being seen for what it was; a copycat
of what development experts refer to
as “Africa-Plus One Summits” where several
African countries plus one non-African
country occasionally meet. China, France,
Japan, the U.S, India and Russia have hosted
such summits in the last 20 years.
Last October, Russia hosted 43 African
heads of state and government and in the
same month, France hosted its second
annual “Ambition Africa” business
summit. In 2018, China welcomed 51 of the
continent’s 54 leaders, one more than the
United States four years earlier.
The UK could assess its rating based
on the delegations from over 20 African
countries; including Presidents Yoweri
18 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
Museveni of Uganda, President Abdel
Fattah el-Sisi (Egypt), Uhuru Kenyatta
(Kenya), Muhammadu Buhari (Nigeria),
Nana Akufo-Addo (Ghana) and Paul
Kagame (Rwanda).
Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister
told them that he wants African countries to
fully tap into his country’s enormous market
potential when the UK eventually quits the
European Union later this year. He said the
UK intends to be Africa’s investment partner
of choice. And he also announced a few
other ‘sweeteners.’
But with eight of the 15 fastest growing
economies being African coupled with the
continent’s ever burgeoning population,
majority of whom are youth (420 million
youth out of 1.2 billion), analysts say the
heads of African countries are getting used
to being courted and have become quite
choosy.
Many are happy Britain has woken up
and see many opportunities in engaging
with Africa—just like China, France, the U.S
have been doing over the last three decades.
But they also see the investment summit
as just one of the mechanisms through
which the British are trying to re-invent
themselves after realizing that the Asians
and other powers have made inroads on the
continent in terms of trade and investment.
“This is a survival strategy by the British
and they are trying to make up for lost
ground,” said Isaac Shinyekwa, a research
fellow at the Makerere University-based
Economic Policy Research Centre in
Kampala on Jan. 20. “Britain may be viewed
by some as a laggard in the race.”
Chinese competition
Britain faces strong competition mainly
from China which has increased its influence

across the continent in recent decades.
Chinese exports to Africa are eight times
larger than those of the UK and even bigger
than the top three exporters—Germany,
France and the U.S combined.
If other countries, including the UK, are
interested in generating the kind of interest
that Chinese summits produce, then they
should learn a few lessons from China,
Hannah Wanjie, the CEO of Development
Reimagined, a Beijing-based international
consultancy firm told Quartz recently.
Wanjie said summits are only the ‘shiny
jewel-in-the-crown’ of years of hard work
and engagement and it would be helpful
if the UK’s attitude towards the continent
changed.
Wanjie says when the Forum on China-
Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summits
started in 2000; China’s various foreign
ministers had been making trips to three-five
African countries every year for 10 years.
Since then, that tradition has continued,
bolstered by fairly regular visits by the
different Chinese presidents and premiers,
meaning that in just one decade—over 2008-
2018— top-level Chinese leaders visited 43
of the 55 African countries.
While on these visits, China has got
the chance to do normal government-to-
government deals to help its companies feel
safe when investing in African countries,
Wanjie said. Today, China has signed 20
bilateral investment treaties.
By comparison, Wanjie noted, the
British leadership visited 23 countries on
the continent with big time lapses. Until
Theresa May, the immediate former British
Prime Minister visited South Africa, Nigeria
and Kenya in 2018, the most recent time a
Prime Minister had visited the continent
was in 2013. This partly explains the two
countries’ fortunes on the continent.
In 2000, for instance, when China held
its first summit with Africa, China was
importing just US$5 billion worth of goods
from Africa, and the UK US$13 billion. By
2013, China had overtaken the UK.
But Jane Nalunga, the Country Director
of the Southern and Eastern Africa Trade
Information and Negotiations Institute
(SEATINI) told The Independent that it is
actually a good thing that the UK wants
to re-engage and re-negotiate trade
agreements with Africa.
The summit is a positive development
for countries like Uganda considering
that negotiating the Economic Partnership
Agreements (EPAs) with the European
Union’s 27 members has at times been
difficult, she said.
Nalunga says this is partly because some
of the EU members from Eastern Europe
have no links with Africa and therefore do
not care about the continent. This, she says,
could change when the UK leaves the EU.
Days before the summit, Alok Sharma the
UK Secretary for International Development
told The Telegraph that the UK wants to
turbo-charge relations with Africa after
Brexit by striking trade and business deals
across the continent.
Sharma said that Britain’s strengths—
from its record as a leading source of private
investment on the continent to the attractions
of the city of London—will ensure that it
remains competitive.
“One of the things I want to do is turbo-
charge relations with growth economies
and if you look at Africa, eight of the 15
fastest growing economies in the world are
now based in Africa,” he said during a pre-
summit visit to Kenya.
There is an opportunity out there for us to
grasp and I think events like the summit will
be a catalyst for that.”
Although sub-Saharan Africa is still the
world’s poorest region, few see it as the
“hopeless continent,” anymore. The UK has
already signed trade agreements with 11
African countries covering 43% of the U.K’s
total trade with Africa. The UK has also
legislated for a trade preferences scheme
with a further 35 African countries with
the ambition to build and deepen existing
agreements in the future.
Nalunga told The Independent that the
UK’s colonial links with many African
countries would help its re-engagement with
Africa.
“When you look at Uganda’s exports
to the EU, a substantial amount of these
NEWS ANALYSIS
products go to the UK thanks to the colonial
links,” she said, “I think the UK has a good
ground to come back and renegotiate some
of the trade agreements with Africa.
But other analysts say that for decades,
the UK’s aid, trade and investment patterns
have reflected a traditional picture of Africa
that is rooted in a “colonial and paternalistic
mindset” and trade statistics back this
argument.
Analysis of trade data shows that the
entire African continent accounts for just 3%
of all UK goods and services exports. In fact,
between the UK and Africa from 2007 and
2016, African exports to the UK stood at US$
16.89bn, while Africa’s imports from the UK
stood at US$ 11.40bn.
Yet, the UK’s trade presence in Africa
was not always this small. Until the late
1990s, Britain accounted for nearly 7% of
the continent’s imports. Analysts point to
the lack of competitive exports from Africa
and the rise of other competitive economies.
But also the UK had completely turned to
the EU. In fact, Europe has been taking the
lion’s share of UK trade (54%).
Meanwhile, since 2012, Africa’s exports
to the U.K have declined by nearly 50%
from US$ 32.43bn to the 2016 level of US$
16.89bn, mainly due to falling commodity
prices and global economic slowdown
according to Tralac, a South African-based
organization that tracks trade governance on
the continent.
But other economic experts say Brussels
is not the only reason behind Britain’s weak
trade links with Africa. France, Germany
and Italy, all EU members, export more than
double the value of goods to the continent
than the UK according to the International
Trade Centre.
Closer to home, in 2017, Uganda’s top
exports were coffee (US$555 million), gold
(US$ 416 million), dried legumes (US$ 98.4
million), fish fillet (US$ 87.1 million) and
cocoa (US$ 74.9 million).
Its top imports were refined petroleum
(US$ 934 million), palm oil (US$ 255 million),
pharmaceuticals (US$ 236 million), broadcast
equipment (US$ 213 million) and motor cars
(US$ 141 million).
But, over the same period, Uganda’s top
export destinations were the United Arab
Emirates (US$ 427 million), Kenya (US $ 391
million), South Sudan (US$ 253 million), DR
Congo (US$ 189 million) and Rwanda (US$
171 million).
Meanwhile, Uganda’s top import origins
were China (US$ 1.15bn), India (US$ 724
million), the UAE (US$ 623 million), Kenya
(US$ 506 million) and Japan (US$ 376
million).
The UK just bought the following
products from Uganda: Edible vegetables
and root tubers worth US$ 2.67 million,
coffee, tea and spices (US $ 1.89 million), raw
hides and skins (US$ 1.77 million), live trees,
plants, bulbs, roots and cut flowers (US$
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 19
NEWS ANALYSIS
President Museveni shares a light moment with Princess Anne during a cocktail party at Buckingham Palace in London.  COURTESY PHOTO
743,730), edible fruits and nuts (US$ 525,970),
salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and
cement (US$ 424, 510), cotton (US$ 317,680),
art and crafts (US$ 267,160) and beverages
and spirits (US$ 100,410).
Still, the UK government appears
optimistic that it can change this and it wants
to become the G7’s number one investor in
Africa by 2022.
At the summit, Johnson used rhetoric
to illustrate what he described as his
government’s modern partnership with
examples of UK businesses like Low Energy
Designs, which is installing smart street
lighting across Nigeria, Northern Irish firm
Lagan which has won the contract to build
a business park in Uganda, and Diageo
which is investing £167 million to build
modern environmentally friendly breweries
in Kenya.
“Look around the world today and you
will swiftly see that the UK is not only the
obvious partner of choice, we’re also very
much the partner of today, of tomorrow and
decades to come,” he said.
Highlighting what the UK has to offer, the
British prime minister said the UK’s unique
expertise and innovation in technology,
clean growth, infrastructure and finance can
feed the continent’s demand for sustainable
growth.
Johnson told the African presidents that
Brexit would end its preferential treatment
for EU migrants and be more open to
African migrants.
“You will be pleased to hear that one
thing is changing—our immigration system.
Change is coming, and our system is
20 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
becoming fairer and more equal between
all our global friends and partners, treating
people the same wherever they come
from,” he said, “By putting people before
passports, we will be able to attract the best
talent from around the world wherever they
may be.”
He also promised an end to direct UK
state investment in thermal coal mining
or coal power plants overseas saying his
government would focus on supporting a
switch to low-carbon energy sources.
“There is no point in the UK reducing
the amount of coal we burn, if we then
trundle over to Africa and line our pockets
by encouraging African states to use more
of it, is there?” “We all breathe the same air;
we live beneath the same sky. We all suffer
when carbon emissions rise and the planet
warms.”
During the summit, Sharma, the UK’s
International Development Secretary
announced new landmark infrastructure
partnerships with Uganda, Egypt, Ethiopia,
Ghana, Kenya and the African Development
Bank while a new British facility to
generate billions of pounds of private sector
investment for sustainable energy, transport
and telecommunications projects in other
African countries was also unveiled.
Billion Pound investments
Ahead of the summit, up to £6.5 billion
of commercial deals had already been
signed by British companies to deliver jobs,
growth and investment across the U.K and
Africa according to the Department for
International Development (DFID) and the
Department for International Trade.
Sharma said the UK was also committed
to boosting investment in green, quality
infrastructure such as solar energy. He said
the UK will partner with Uganda, Egypt,
Ethiopia, Ghana and Kenya to design a new
facility to plan, and deliver support finance
to a range of infrastructure projects across
Africa that are attractive to businesses and
investors.
“Investing in quality infrastructure
enables children to travel to school and
parents to go to work to provide for their
families,” Sharma said, “It lets people
keep food in fridges and provides light so
children can do their homework at night.”
He added: “It also powers factories,
phones and computers to connect people
and grow businesses. It is the difference
between surviving and thriving.” 
Sharma also announced an expansion
of the Department for International
Development’s (DFID’s) Cities and
Infrastructure for Growth programme to
Ghana, Rwanda and Sierra Leone, which
helps UK businesses invest in quality,
resilient infrastructure, boost access to
reliable and affordable power and create
construction jobs. 
Visiting political and business leaders
were later treated to pomp as they attended
a reception at Buckingham Palace as
guests of the Duke of Cambridge. But such
pageantry might not guarantee success
Britain once had on the continent.

Russian hackers
target African banks
Cybercriminals from hacking group Silence
one of the most sophisticated threat actors
By Brendyn Lotz
A
number of worrying notifications
from banks in the Sub-Saharan
Africa region have cybersecurity
experts concerned that Silence has
arrived on the continent.
Silence Group is an organization
of cybercriminals that has been active
since 2016. A report from Group-IB in
2019 called the group “one of the most
sophisticated threat actors not only
in Russia, but also in the Americas,
Europe, Africa, and especially Asia”.
It is believed that Silence Group is
Russian. The group employs a variety
of hacking techniques but appears
to prefer spear-phishing tactics. The
attack begins with an email which
contains malware.
The malicious file is downloaded
on to a bank employee’s machine and from
their Silence waits and observes. The group
gathers screenshots, emails and information
about the target’s day-to-day activities before
Silence takes action.
Once it does, Silence siphons money –
often amounting to millions – before cashing
out at ATMS.
“Silence group has been quite productive
in the past years, as they live up to their
name; their operations require an extensive
period of silent monitoring, with rapid and
coordinated thefts. We noticed a growing
interest of this actor group in banking organ-
isations in 2017 and since that time the group
would constantly develop, expanding to
new regions and updating their social engi-
neering scheme,” says security researcher at
Kaspersky, Sergey Golovanov.
NEWS ANALYSIS
If stealing millions in cash wasn’t enough,
Silence is also out to steal sensitive informa-
tion while it gathers data before an attack.
Kaspersky reports that it detected a
number of malware attacks on banks in
the Sub-Saharan Africa region in the first
week of January. Based on the malware
used, Kaspersky believes that Silence
is about to begin the final stage of its
attack and cash out.
The cyber security firm believes the
attacks are ongoing and target several
large banks in the region.
“We urge all banks to stay vigilant,
as apart from the large sums Silence
group also steal sensitive information
while monitoring the Banks activity as
they video record screen activity. This
is a serious privacy abuse that might
cost more than money can buy,” con-
cludes Golovanov.
Silence Group was hard at work in 2019
targeting banks in Chile, Bulgaria, Costa
Rica, Ghana and India. With sights now
reportedly set on Sub-Saharan Africa banks
and those in the financial sector would do
well to remain vigilant.
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 21
NEWS ANALYSIS
Ugandan journalists protest against police brutality recently.  INDEPENDENT PHOTO/ALFRED OCHWO
Human rights activists
fear for 2021 elections
They say government failure to account
for past abuses not a good sign
By Ronald Musoke
T
he Ugandan government’s continued
failure to account for past human
rights abuses does not bode well for
the 2021 general election, Human
Rights Watch said in its recent global annual
review of human rights.
Tales of torture in so-called safe houses
run by state security agencies, arbitrary
arrest and detention of government critics
and a crackdown on public dissent and
minority sexual orientation groups were
among several human rights abuses regis-
tered last year.
Human Rights Watch however said
in its brief on Uganda, that the violation
of freedom of association, assembly, and
22 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
expression showed the most worrisome
trend in the country ahead of the country’s
fourth consecutive general election under
multi-party democracy.
The New York-based organization which
has been tracking global human rights
practices and trends over the last 30 years
noted in its 652-page report that authorities
in Uganda did not only introduce new reg-
ulations restricting online activities but also
stifled independent media and arbitrarily
detained and prosecuted outspoken critics of
government.
Stifling independent media
Last year, the government introduced
new regulations requiring online operators
to apply for permission to host blogs and
websites or risk being shut down. The gov-
ernment also attempted to censor traditional
media outlets.
In April, the Uganda Communications
Commission (UCC), Uganda’s communica-
tions regulator, ordered the immediate sus-
pension of 39 producers, heads of program-
ming and heads of news at six television
stations including; NBS TV, BBS TV, NTV,
Bukedde TV, Kingdom TV and Salt TV.
UCC also ordered similar action to be
taken at seven radio stations (Akaboozi, Beat
FM, Capital FM, Pearl FM, Sapientia FM and
Radio Simba).
In the letters sent to the affected media
houses by the UCC boss, Godfrey Mutabazi,
the communications regulator said UCC had
observed “misrepresentation of information,

views, facts and events in a manner likely to
mislead or cause alarm to the public during
live broadcasts and main news bulletins.”
UCC also accused the media houses of
airing programmes that have “extremist or
anarchic messages” including incitement of
violence for political and/or other purposes
and inciting the public against other mem-
bers of the public based on their political,
religious, cultural and tribal affiliations
which are likely to create public insecurity or
violence.
UCC said the accused media houses
broadcast unbalanced, sensational news and
gave prominence to specific individuals and/
or group of people, something Mutabazi
said is in breach of minimum broadcasting
standards. Three radio stations in Kabale,
Jinja, and Mubende were taken off air for
hosting prominent opposition leader Kizza
Besigye.
The European Union Delegation in Ugan-
da, the heads of mission of Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
the Netherlands, Sweden and UK alongside
other heads of mission from Iceland, Japan,
Norway, South Korea and the United States
issued a joint statement regarding freedom
of expression and assembly in Uganda, and
particularly cited UCC’s April 30, 2019, deci-
sion to suspend senior staff of 13 radio and
television stations on allegations of breach-
ing minimum broadcasting standards.
Reining-in government critics
Next on the list of those harassed by secu-
rity agencies were opposition politicians
and activists with Dr. Kizza Besigye and
Kyadondo East MP Robert Sentamu Kya-
gulanyi aka Bobi Wine taking in most of the
heat and tear gas.
In April, last year, for example, security
officers arrested and charged Bobi Wine,
who also heads the People Power political
group for “disobedience of statutory duty”
having led a protest in July, 2018, against
a social media tax that the government
had imposed. He was arrested on his way
to address a press conference on issues of
“police brutality, injustice and abuse of
authority.”
Four months later, in August, Kyagulanyi
faced additional charges for inciting violence
and with intent to “alarm, annoy or ridicule”
the president, stemming from 2018 when
Kyagulanyi and 33 other people were arrest-
ed and charged with treason on allegations
that they threw stones at the president’s con-
voy during an election campaign rally in the
north-western Ugandan town of Arua.
In July, Joseph Kabuleta, a journal-
ist-turned pastor and government critic was
picked up from a city restaurant, bundled
into an unregistered police vehicle and
taken to an unknown place. Police later
said Kabuleta was arrested because of his
Facebook posts describing President Yoweri
Museveni as “a Gambler, Thief and Liar.”
A month later, in August, court in Kam-
pala convicted and sentenced academic and
activist, Stella Nyanzi, to 18 months’ impris-
onment for “cyber harassment” under the
Computer Misuse Act for a poem she pub-
lished on her Facebook page in 2018 criticis-
ing President Museveni. The court ruled that
the poem violated prohibitions on “obscene,
lewd, lascivious or indecent” content.
Nyanzi told court on Aug.01 that she
had offended President Yoweri Museveni
because he too had offended Ugandans for
30-plus years. “We are tired of a dictator-
ship,” she said.
Human rights advocates were not amused
by the court’s decision. Joan Nyanyuki,
Amnesty International’s director for East
Africa found the judgment outrageous
noting that: “The verdict flies in the face of
Uganda’s obligations to uphold the right to
freedom of expression and demonstrates the
depths of the government’s intolerance of
criticism.”
No public assemblies
The police also used the 2013 Public Order
Management Act (POMA) to block, restrict,
and disperse peaceful assemblies and
demonstrations by opposition groups, often
with excessive force.
In April, police blocked rallies in support
of Kizza Besigye, a leader in the opposition
Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), in
the northern Ugandan town of Lira and in
Kasese in the west.
In September, police blocked a rally in
Mbale in eastern Uganda, and arrested FDC
President, Patrick Oboi Amuriat, and three
others. On November 4, police blocked FDC
from holding a press conference in Kampala,
and arrested Dr. Besigye before releasing
him on bond later that day.
But the most vicious crackdown of pub-
lic dissent happened in October when the
police and the military pitched camp at Mak-
erere University to quell student protests.
The security forces unleashed teargas into
student residences, raided dormitories, beat
up, arrested and detained dozens for days
without charge.
Dr. Livingstone Sewanyana told The Inde-
pendent on Jan. 17 that he is not surprised
that the government targets freedom of asso-
ciation, assembly and expression.
“This set of freedoms are at the core of any
democracy and it is not surprising that in
fragile democracies like Uganda, these top
the list of abused rights,” he said.
Sewanyana says when this set of rights is
protected, “you create a level playing field
and the chances of outmaneuvering your
competitors become limited.”
“That is why the temptation to violate
these rights is quite high,” Sewanyana told
The Independent.
“As we go into the 2021 electoral cycle, we
must desist from the abuse of these rights,”
Sewanyana said, insisting that it is import-
NEWS ANALYSIS
ant for all parties to create an environment
where citizens are free to canvass for votes
and vote freely.
Yet from the look of things, the members
of the opposition continue to complain of
harassment by the security agencies. Early
this month, attempts by Kyagulanyi to hold
nationwide consultations ahead of the 2021
presidential election were quashed by police.
Although Kyagulanyi had written and
notified the Electoral Commission, Parlia-
ment and the Police about the consultations,
Police authorities said Kyagulanyi failed
to meet the Public Order Management Act
requirements.
Several reforms have been proposed to the
laws governing elections and political parties
in the build-up to elections in 2021 but some
of these proposals have been described as
“unpopular, non-progressive and individu-
al-centered amendments.”
In July, Attorney General, William Byaru-
hanga, tabled several proposals including
barring candidates from running as indepen-
dents after participating in party primaries
and preventing independent presidential
candidates from forming alliances with
political parties.
Legislators from the opposition were not
amused and many said the reforms targeted
Kyagulanyi, who said he would run for
president in 2021 as an independent candi-
date.
Earlier on in April, the Supreme Court
upheld the Constitutional Court’s ruling
supporting parliament’s 2017 approval of
the removal of a 75 year age limit for presi-
dential candidates from the Ugandan con-
stitution.
Elsewhere, Kenneth Roth, the executive
director of Human Rights Watch says that
the Chinese government which depends on
repression to stay in power is carrying out
the most intense attack on the global human
rights system in decades.
He says Beijing’s actions both encourage
and gain support from autocratic populists
around the world, while Chinese authorities
use their economic clout to deter criticism
from other governments.
Roth says “it is urgent to resist this assault,
which threatens decades of progress on
human rights and our future.” However,
Roth was quick to add that the Chinese gov-
ernment is not today’s only threat to human
rights.
In many armed conflicts such as in Syria
and Yemen, warring parties blatantly dis-
regard the international rules designed to
spare civilians the hazards of war, from the
ban on chemical weapons to the prohibition
against bombing hospitals.
“Elsewhere, autocratic populists gain
office by demonizing minorities and then
retain power by attacking the checks and
balances on their rule, such as indepen-
dent journalists, judges and activists,”
Roth said.
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 23
news analysis
Wild animals on
cattle ranches
New scientific study shows Lake Mburo
National Park is paradise for both
By Independent Reporter
I
n most of the wildlife conservation
community in Uganda, the
establishment of livestock
ranchlands adjacent to protected
areas in savanna ecosystems is believed
to threaten wild animals. Intensive
competition for vegetative resources,
water and poaching are considered to
be immediate factors that reduce the
capacity of protected areas to sustain
wild mammals.
But a newly published report of a
study by researchers from Makerere
University Kampala appears to negate
the common belief of competition and
exclusion.
The study published in the
international journal `Nature
Conservation’ was done by a PhD
candidate Antonia Nyamukuru
of the College of Agricultural and
Environmental Sciences, Makerere
University. The study funded by the
Norwegian Programme for Capacity
Building in Higher Education and
Research for Development (NORHED)
was conducted in the eastern part of
Lake Mburo National Park (LMNP)and
the adjacent ranchlands, in Kiruhura
District, South Western Uganda.
Instead of showing competition and
exclusion, the new study points to the
compatibility of ranchlands adjacent to
protected areas in savanna ecosystems
in conserving wild mammals and
biodiversity.
Lake Mburo National Park (LMNP),
which is 260 km2 large and just 250km
from Kampala city along the Masaka-
Mbarara Highway, is the smallest
grassland protected area in Uganda. It
is located within a dry land savanna,
surrounded by livestock ranchlands
in Kiruhura District and bordered by
Lyantonde, Mbarara, Isingiro, Ibanda
and Rakai districts.
Since its gazette, grazing land for
24 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
livestock was reduced as livestock was
restricted from entering the gazette.
It was argued that livestock grazing
was incompatible with wildlife
conservation even if the decision to
exclude livestock grazing from the
park was not guided by any critical
study to assess whether exclusion
was the best option for conserving
biodiversity.
The study found evidence of park
animals grazing in ranchlands and
livestock grazing in the conservation
area. It found that animals like Zebra,
Buffalo, Impala, Eland, baboons and
Topi routinely graze in ranchlands,
while cattle and horses graze in the
park.
According to the study, some
mammals such as Zebra, Impala,
Eland, waterbuck, and others appear
to prefer grazing in ranchland than
in the designated conservation.
During the study period, there were
538 incidents recorded of Zebra
grazing in ranchland in the study area
which equally straddled ranchland
and designated conservation area. The study was titled `Wild mammal
In comparison, only 266 incidents dung abundance in Lake Mburo
of Zebra grazing in the study National Park is lower than in adjacent
conservation area were recorded. In ranchlands’. It used dung counts as a
case of impala, 66 incidents of grazing proxy for biodiversity, distribution and
were recorded in the park compared to relative abundance of mammals.
466 in ranchlands. Studies have shown that dung counts
In comparison, 163 cases of Buffalo are accurate estimates of mammal
grazing in the park were recorded in population biomass and density. It
comparison to just six in ranchland. is assumed that if dung count rates
This shows than unlike the other are higher in the ranchlands than the
mammals, buffalo prefer to graze in the national park, this may suggest that
park than in ranchlands. Lake Mburo the population density of specific
National Park also boasts giraffes and grazing animals could be higher in the
leopards but these were not spotted in ranchlands that produce it.
the study. The researchers ensured that the
In case of cattle, 619 grazing chances of finding dung piles were
incidents were recorded in the equally likely on both sides of the
ranchlands compared to 122 in the boundary. The dung pile was identified
parks. This shows that although and attached to mammal species
cattle enter the part to graze, they are with the help of an experienced game
predominantly in the ranches. ranger.

For the research, dung counts were
made in four sites of about 1km2 each
in the park and in the ranchlands that
were specially selected away from
their common boundary and paired.
The 300m away from the boundary
was applied to avoid what scientists
call the `edge effect’, which is an
ecological concept that describes how
there is a greater diversity of life in the
region where the edges of two adjacent
ecosystems overlap, such as land/
water or forest/grassland. Also, it was
noted, wild animals maintain a shorter
distance away from grazing (livestock)
than from other human activities like
agriculture and settlement.
“This is evidence that wild mammals
either periodically migrate from the
Park to neighboring land uses or live
there as residents,” says the researcher.
“The presence of bushbuck, hyena,
mongoose, hare, and bush duiker on
ranchlands and not in the park further
demonstrates the lack of imminent
threats to these animals on the
ranchlands but rather a possibility of
coexistence. By choosing to range on
ranchlands rather than the protected
area, these species affirm the existence
of more suitable ecological conditions
and the differences in habitat selection
by different species,” she adds.
The researchers say although
conservation purists believe exclusion
of land uses that are perceived to
be incompatible with protected
areas is the best way to counter
biodiversity loss, the exclusion has
not completely halted the loss of
news analysis
biodiversity in protected areas. Instead,
the researchers say, in some cases
exclusion has exacerbated human-
wildlife conflict since communities
still want to access essential resources
within the protected areas.
“The demand for land and its
resources in areas adjacent to protected
areas managed for biodiversity
conservation is increasingly putting
pressure on biodiversity conservation
areas, prompting the need for land use
options that can simultaneously conserve
biodiversity and serve other production
uses,” the study points out.
Such coexistence of wild mammals and
ranchlands is common in Southern Africa
but has rarely been suggested as a viable
conservation option in East Africa.
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 25
Amelia Kyambadde (C), the minister for trade in Uganda together with Carrefour executives cut a
ribbon to mark the grand opening of Carrefour stores in Kampala on Jan.14. Courtesy Photo.
Majid Al Futtaim opens
Carrefour store in Kampala
This development will stir competition
in the country’s retail business
C
By Isaac Khisa
arrefour franchisee in the
Middle East, Asia and Africa,
Majid Al-Futtaim, has opened
a store in Kampala, stepping
up competition for shoppers in
the country’s lucrative and less
developed retail chain industry.
Majid Al-Futtaim, which operates more
than 285 Carrefour stores in 30 countries
across the region, opened the maiden
Ugandan outlet at the Oasis Mall, located
along Yusuf Lule Road, at cost of $4million
(approx.Shs15bn).
The store covers 2,800 square meters,
stocked with 20,000 products sourced locally
and internationally to meet the needs of dif-
ferent customer segments.
26 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
The retail chain also plans to open another
outlet at Metroplex Mall in Naalya and will
add three more outlets in the next five years.
Hani Weiss, the chief executive officer
at the Majid Al-Futtaim, said Carrefour’s
launch in Uganda is an integral part in the
retailer’s long term ambition of strengthen-
ing its presence in the East African region.
“Carrefour is here to modernise the gro-
cery retail sector by bringing international
best practices and delivering the best value
products to our customers, as we look to
realise our vision of creating great moments
for everyone every day,” he said.
He said the retail chain has introduced
reusable shopping bags that are exchange-
able for free for life.
“The objective is to push consumers to
adopt reusable bags and bring damaged
bags in our store,” Weiss said.
Uganda has in the recent past three years
become a hotbed for expansion of retail
chains following the exit of two giant retail
chains – Nakumatt and Uchumi.
South African retail chain, Shoprite, which
had two stores has expanded to five stores in
Kampala and Entebbe.
Quality and Mega supermarkets, which
had two outlets each in Kampala and Waki-
so, have all expanded to four and three
stores, respectively.
New retail chains have also sprung up
including the Chinese owned Shopping
Union at Kingdom Kampala and Urban
Supermarket at Kooky Towers Opposite
Central Police Station.
The United Arab Emirates based retail
 business

Orange moves
chain also operates seven outlets in Nairobi
since its entry into the Kenyan retail market
in 2016.

regional HQ to Africa
Presiding over the official launch, Amelia
Kyambadde, Uganda’s Minister for Trade,
Industry and Cooperatives said the country’s
growing population, coupled with a vibrant
economy will support Majid Al Futtaim’s
growth. “With rapid urbanisation, there
is an increased demand for superior and
Orange is present in 18 countries across the
high-quality products offered at great value, continent, and only three in the Middle East
and we are very confident that in Majid
Al-Futtaim, we have the right partner,” she
said. “By building the capacity of local sup- By Shoshana Kede three Middle East countries.

T
pliers, Majid Al Futtaim is encouraging value It boasted 121 million customers in the
addition which will in turn help to boost elecoms giant Orange confirmed its region in 2019, and claims that more than
household incomes. This supplements the ambitions to expand its operations 1 in 10 Africans is an Orange customer. Its
government’s job creation efforts.” in Africa by opening a regional mobile-based money transfer platform,
Kyambadde said that by buying from headquarters in Morocco. Orange Money, is available in 17 African
local suppliers, Majid Al Futtaim is also The firm’s Middle East and Africa countries, with 45m mostly Francophone
helping to strengthen the government’s ‘Buy (MEA) activities were previously run out customers.  
Uganda Build Uganda’ policy and that they of Paris, but will now operate exclusively
will continue to support companies that pro- out of North Africa’s commercial hub, IPO rumours
mote inclusive growth in their operations. Casablanca. The French mobile operator also hinted
Economic analysts that spoke to The The move “sends a highly symbolic that an initial public offering of its MEA
Independent earlier said Carrefour is likely message,” that the French firm wants to be unit was on the table, which could take
to succeed in Uganda once it capitalises on closer to 30% of its customers, signalling “a place in Paris or London later this year,
the growing economy that has an increasing turning point” in the company’s history, Bloomberg reports.
number of the middle class. Alioune Ndiaye, the CEO of Orange The group has enlisted BNP Paribas
The analysists also said the growing popu- Middle East and Africa said. and Morgan Stanley as advisers on the
lation is also expected to support the growth “[This] provides further proof of our potential IPO, which is poised to be one
of retail chains. desire to be of the biggest
Currently, Uganda’s population stands even closer to listings
at more than 34million people while the our customers from the
economy has been growing at an average of and to make MEA region
5.5% over the last five years, according to the Orange MEA the this year,
Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) data. preferred multi- according to
Carrefour, in June last year, reported high- services operator Bloomberg.
er first-half profits and said it was on track for people in Africa and
to deal with a strategic overhaul aimed at Africa and the the Middle
boosting earnings and tackling competition Middle East,” he East are
from the likes of Amazon. said. Orange’s
The retail chain’s operating profits rose The company fastest-
2.6% from the same period last year to 618 hopes to cash in growing
million euros (US$690 million). on burgeoning markets,
Carrefour had a 282 million euros opportunities with the unit
improvement in cash-flow, while recurring in sub-Saharan growing at 6%
operating profits at its competitive, key Africa’s mobile annually and
home French market rose by 6 million euros money market. generating
to 116 million. The continent 5.2bn euros
The retail chain said it was sticking to the now processes ($5.9bn) in
financial targets laid out in its ‘Carrefour $1.3bn a day in revenues
2022’ plan, which also includes expanding mobile money in 2018 and
into convenience stores to cut its exposure to transactions, €4.2bn ($4.7bn)
large hypermarket stores and having more more than any other region in the world. in the opening nine months of 2019, up
organic products and private labels. Almost half of the world’s mobile from €3.8 billion in the same period in
Those targets include a cost-reduction money activities (45.6%) take place in 2018.
plan of 2.8 billion euros on an annual basis the sub-Saharan region. The region The group is also considering entering
by 2020, having 5 billion euros worth of also accounts for 49% of the world’s Ethiopia’s telecoms and mobile money
e-commerce food sales, and the disposal operational mobile money accounts.  services sectors by 2020 as the country
of 500 million euros worth of non-strategic The firm sees the continent as “a model plays catch-up with its East African
property assets. for digital transformation,” and said neighbours, chief financial officer Ramon
Founded in 1992 with business activities it is keen develop and adapt its digital Fernandez told Reuters last year.
spanning shopping mall, communities, retail payments services tailored to local needs.
and leisure pioneers, Majid Al-Futtaim part- “We have always been convinced of the Adapted from African Business Magazine
nered with the French multinational retailer immense potential of this region,” Ndiaye
Carrefour in 1995 to introduce the brand in said. Orange is present in 18, mainly
the Middle East, Asia and Africa. Francophone, African countries, and only

Jan. 24 - 30 2020 27
business
Officials listen to one of the technical persons as they visited part of the dam’s infrastructure on Jan.16.
Karuma Dam commissioning
extended again
Contractor, Ministry of Energy say it will
be ready in November 2020
By Julius Businge
T
he commissioning of the 600MW
Karuma Hydropower Dam has
again been extended to November
2020 to allow the contractor deliver a
fit for purpose project.
This is the third time that Karuma Dam
commissioning has been extended. The dam
was set for commissioning in Dec.2018 but
the activity was extended twice – in July and
later at the end of 2019.
In an interview with a team of journalists
at the site on Jan. 16, Eng. Proscovia Marga-
ret Njuki, the Board Chairperson for Uganda
Electricity Generation Company Limited
(UEGCL) and Simon Kasyate, the corporate
affairs manager said major hydro mechani-
cal and electro mechanical parts are already
in place but a lot of work remains to be done
on the employers camp, and a few other
electro mechanical installations. The duo
said the project is now at 95% completion.
“We understand the owner of the proj-
ect, the Ministry of Energy, extended the
commissioning date for the pending works
mainly based on land acquisition for the
transmission line,” Njuki said.
The UEGCL executives said there are oth-
er quality assurance issues that needs to be
worked on including repairs on the dam as
well as cabling.
“One can say comfortably that the proj-
28 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
ect is moving on well albeit a few bends that
are in the process of being straightened like
any other project worth its name,” Kasyate
said.
The Auditor General’s office has previ-
ously raised queries regarding the delays on
commissioning the project which is hinged
on Uganda’s industrialization agenda.
But UEGCL officials are hopeful that this
time around the dam will be commissioned
come Nov.2020.
“We have an incredible respect for the
Auditor General and his opinion when it
comes to the reports that he issues…if that
is his opinion we welcome it and give it the
respect it deserves,” Kasyate said.
Earlier Eng. Harrison Mutikanga, the chief
executive officer for UEGCL, said the dam
Quick facts about Karuma dam
 August 12, 2013: Construction starts
 December 2018: Official commissioning
date
 July 2019: New suggested date for
official commissioning
 December 2019: New date set for official
commissioning
 December 2020: New deadline for dam’s
completion
 US$1.7bn: Cost of the project
 95%: Physical progress as at January 16,
2020
could have been completed much earlier but
several challenges delayed it. He cited bot-
tlenecks in procurement of project services,
delays by the government to handover land
for the project, and even unfriendly weather
– excessive rain – which slowed down some
of the construction works.
Recent media reports indicates that the
Chinese contractor Synohydro had asked for
Shs615bn extra money to work on the com-
pletion of the project but the government
refused, saying the cost was not supported
with the required documents. The govern-
ment only accepted to extend the project
timeline but with no extra costs.
Njuki and Kasyate insisted that no extra
cost will be met by the government as
agreed between the contractor and the own-
er of the project, the ministry of energy.
Located on the upstream of River Nile
in Kiriandogo District, the dam is expected
to cost government US$1.7bn. Out of this,
85% is a soft loan from the China Export and
Import Bank.
UEGCL executives said delivering the
project to its excellent standards is key in
driving the social economic transformation
of the country given that it is one avenue of
driving Uganda’s industrialization agenda
and job creation.
Karuma dam is expected to feed into the
2023 Uganda’s target of having 1300MW
installed capacity of electricity.
Currently, the east African nation has
electricity generation capacity of 1254MW
against a peak time demand of 670MW. This
leaves more than 500MW unutilized.

Uganda Clays marks 20
years on stock market
By Julius Businge
U
ganda Clays Limited, a clay
building materials manufacturer
located at Kajjansi, approximately
20kilometres from Kampala City
Centre, along Entebbe Road, celebrated its
20 years of trading at the Nakawa based
bourse on Jan.20 with lots of fun.
The fanfare event that took place at the
Uganda Securities Exchange also provided
an opportunity for the firm to reflect on
its past achievements and hint on future
opportunities.
The USE Chief Executive Officer, Paul
Bwiso, said UCL’s bold step to list on
the stock market in 2000 motivated other
companies to go to the bourse to mobilise
capital.
Showcasing the company’s performance
on the bourse over the last 10 years, the stock
market boss revealed that UCL has recorded
turnover of Shs4.6bn out of the Shs1.4tn total
turnover traded on the entire market during
the period.
He said the shares traded for the same
period stands at 176 million for the UCL
counter compared to the general market
trading of 10.3bn shares.
In terms of share price, for the last 10
years, the lowest share price has been Shs9
against the highest Shs29.
Equally, Jacqueline Kiwanuka, the chief
finance officer at UCL said the company’s
move to trade on the USE has enhanced its
openness and transparency in the way it
does its business in addition to giving the
public a chance to own part of the company.
UCL was the first company to list on the
USE.
This development comes a few months to
the release of its financial performance for
the year ending Dec.31, 2019.
The company recorded an increase in total
revenue from Shs27bn in 2017 to Shs30bn
in 2018, according to its financial statement
released last year.
However, its gross profit remained flat
at Shs10.6bn as net profits sharply dropped
from Shs2.3bn in 2017 to Shs1.9bn in 2018.
The drop in profit after tax revenue,
according to the company’s top executives,
was largely as a result of costs related to off
season of coffee husks and increase in fuel
prices in the period leading to the increase in
cost of distribution.
There was also a 9% increase in the total
overheads due to incentives of transport to
agents and corporate customers.
Inholo (2-L) rings the bell to officially mark 20 years of UCL trading at the USE.
Innovations for growth
In a bid to stir business growth, the com-
pany’s Managing Director, George Inholo,
reiterated that they are working on various
innovations and will put new tiles on the
market soon. He also said the company is
looking for alternative sources of energy
to deal with the unpredictable prices of
coffee husks. He said they have enough
clay reserves for production of various con-
striction materials. For the Kajjansi factory
alone, for instance, Inholo said the company
has a reserve of up to 15 years and are still
exploring other areas. On the other hand,
Kamonkoli plant in Mbale has a clay reserve
that can last 70 years.
Inholo also said the company’s human
resource function has greatly improved and
that it requires all staff to hit their targets.
Beyond Uganda’s market, UCL executives
insist that the plan to reopen their outlet in
South Sudan is still on the table albeit the
political instability that have engulfed Afri-
ca’s newest nation.
However, the company is still exporting
the products to South Sudan on orders.
On debt, Inholo said the company does
not have any commercial debt with banks
except the National Social Security Fund
(NSSF) where it is supposed to clear a
Shs23bn debt. The negotiations in relation
to retiring this old debt has been planned
before end of this year.
Going forward, Inholo said his leadership
strategy is to ensure that the cost of opera-
tion is minimized at every opportunity so as
to boost profitability and ensure that share-
holders earn dividends.
Jan. 24 - 30 2020
business
Historical facts (source; USE)
 Uganda Clays Ltd (UCL) was listed on
the USE on the 18th of January 2000
becoming the first equity to be listed on
the Exchange.
 UCL shares were 15% oversubscribed
representing the market’s readiness for
more trading. As of the 12th of Septem-
ber, 2002, UCL had a capitalization of
Ushs.2.3 billion on the USE
 UCL was incorporated in 1950 as a pri-
vate limited company by the Georgiadis
Greek Cypriot family
 In 1956 all ordinary shares in the compa-
ny were acquired by Westomat- a com-
pany based in Switzerland
 In the period following until 1996,
Westomat transferred ownership to
NHCC, White Tower Corporation and
Charles Schaefer in a series of actions.
 In 1998 the Government of Uganda
decided to sell to the general public its
holding of 374,995 ordinary shares held
by NHCC, together with 5 shares held
by nominees of NHCC-UCL had been
given Class 4 status meaning that gov-
ernment was to fully divest its interest in
the company.
 In 1999 UCL was constituted into a
public limited liability company and its
Memorandum and Articles of Associa-
tion were amended to reflect the change.
 This was followed by the Listing of the
company on the-by then newly formed-
USE within the provisions of the laid
down by the Capital Markets Authority
Statute, 1996.
29
business
IT ENERGY

11 start-ups selected to Total Uganda, Stanbic Bank sign partnership deal

attend Startup Summit

E
leven companies from across the con-
tinent have been selected to pitch on
stage to investors, corporates, media
and other stakeholders at the second
edition of the Africa Startup Summit to be
held in Kigali, Rwanda, next month.
The second edition of the Africa Startup
Summit, powered by Disrupt Africa, will
take place at Africa Tech Summit Kigali on
Feb 5-6, bringing together more than 600
stakeholders in the tech startup space across
the continent to explore the opportunities
and challenges within the ecosystem, while
showcasing Africa’s abundant entrepreneur-
ial talent.
The focus will be on encouraging collab- Total Uganda Managing Director, Obi IMEMBA (L) and Stanbic Bank Chief Executive Patrick
oration, and creating connections between Mweheire launch a partnership that will see customers with prepaid Total Fuel Cards top-up
investors, corporates, stakeholders and more conveniently at Stanbic Agents.   COURTESY PHOTO.

startups.
As part of this mission, applications were
opened late last year to Pitch Live at the
Africa Startup Summit, with chosen startups
earning the chance to pitch before an audi-
ence of over 600 investors, corporate part-
ners, accelerators and media.
More than 100 applications were received
from startups across the continent for the
opportunity to take part. These have now
been narrowed down to the chosen 11,
hailing from six African countries including
Uganda and active in sectors such as ed-tech,
fintech, prop-tech, agri-tech, recruitment and
waste management.
F
uel dealer, Total Uganda Limited has
entered into a partnership deal with
Stanbic Bank Uganda, in a step that
will see customers with prepaid Total
Fuel Cards top-up more conveniently at over
1,500 Stanbic agents countrywide.
Total Uganda Managing Director, Obi
Imemba, said the new partnership is intend-
ed to meet the customer changing needs.
“New trends require digitalization of the
customer experience, greater emphasis on
product utility and increased energy efficien-
cy,” he said. “We are transforming our cus-
tomers’ expectations and their relationship
with energy.”
Stanbic Bank, Chief Executive, Patrick
Mweheire said the bank is proud to be in
partnership with Total Uganda in an initia-
tive that will enable customers reload their
fuel cards conveniently at any of Stanbic
agents.
“Customers will have real time updates
on their card balance as soon as a deposit is
made at any agent and the service is free of
charge,” he said.
Total Uganda has been in operation since
1955 with 177 stations countrywide and 21%
market share.

TRADE PAY-TV

Reprieve to Ugandan famers as Kenya DStv, GOtv in new

cancels 16% duty on milk products promotion campaign

African nation.
President Uhuru Kenyatta on
Jan.14 directed the duty only be
levied on milk products coming in
from outside the East African Com-
munity.
The announcement overrules pro-
posals of a verification mission that
went to Uganda at the tail end of last
year, which called for the duty on
imports to protect farmers.
“To protect our milk producers
from illegal imports, I have directed
National Treasury to impose 16%
VAT on milk products that have
originated from outside the EAC,”
T
he Festive season may be over but DStv and
GOtv are still in the spirit of giving with the
Step Up offer which gives loyal customers more
reason to stay connected in the New Year.
Active and disconnected DStv Comact Plus, Com-
pact, Access and Family customers as well as GOtv
Plus, Value and Lite customers who pay for their cur-
rent package in the next few weeks till Feb.29, will be
bumped up to a higher package for 30 days of access to
a wider viewing experience.
“MultiChoice’s mission is to put our customers at
the heart of everything we do. This offer is just one of
the ways in which we want to show our loyal custom-
ers that we value them. We understand the economic
pressures that the beginning of the year can bring, and
this is a great opportunity to enrich lives with access to

U
gandan dairy farmers have
received a reprieve follow-
ing Kenya’s decision to can-
cel the proposed 16% duty
on milk products procured in the east
President Kenyatta said.
This development comes few
days when Uganda protested
Kenya’s move to impose tax on the
country’s milk products imported
from the former.
additional quality entertainment on us” says Sayyad
Nakayiga, the Head of Retention, MultiChoice Uganda.
The announcement of the Step Up campaign comes
after the DStv Tweyanziza and Ssasanya Amajja cam-
paigns which were announced with the strain of Janu-
ary budgets on DStv and GOtv customers in mind.

30 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
 business

MTN considers 5G
technology rollout
By Isaac Khisa He said the first 5G enabled

M
TN Uganda will
consider rolling
out next generation
5G network in the
near future provided there’s a
business case for the super-fast
technology and the required
spectrum, according to its
Chief Executive Officer, Wim
Vanhelleputte.
The 5G networks, now in
the pilot stage, will offer faster
Rtd Maj General Frank Mugambage (R) hands over a certificate to data speeds than the current
SATGURU Travels in recognition as the best performer in the year
2018-2019 as Country manager, Ian Mugisha looks on. This was 4G networks and serve various
during RwandAir travel companies’ dinner held at Sheraton Kampala critical issues such as healthcare,
Hotel on Jan 17.   INDEPENDENT ALFRED OCHWO education, agriculture and
business.
“5G comes with a host of
advantages that makes it a
revolutionary innovation that
will change the lives of people
in Uganda,” he said on Jan.17 as
the telecom firm showcased the
latest technology in partnership
with the Chinese firm, ZTE, in
Kampala.
“We now have the (5G)
signal but there are no handsets
that are 5G compatible yet. So,
there’s’ no point for looking for
a signal on your phone because
you will not find it. Even with
the most advanced phone will
not access it.”
Mark Mutungi, the Fuels Brand Manager Vivo Energy Uganda sharing
a light moment with some of the lucky winners of the Shell 10 weeks
of cheer promotion at Shell Kira. From left to right is Elijah Yiga and
Iisa Daniel who won fuel worth Shs 50,000 and jackpot winner Brian
Tumwesigye who won Shs500, 000 worth of fuel.   COURTESY PHOTO.
smartphone will be launched
in a few weeks in Barcelona,
Spain. The South African-based
telecom company has already
tested the same technology in
Nigeria and South Africa.
In response, Godfrey Muta-
bazi, the executive director at
the Uganda Communication
Commission said the regulator
is working around the clock to
ensure that that there’s enough
spectrum in the next six months
to enable rollout of any new
technology.
This development comes as
the countries around the globe
race up to rollout 5G technology
to their internet users. South
Korea unveiled the world’s first
nationwide 5G mobile networks
on April.03. Other countries that
have rolled out 5G technology
include US, China and Japan.
Commenting on the MTN’s
new milestone, Prime Minister,
Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, said
the government welcomes the
company’s new development
but should also consider making
the cost of accessing the latest
technology affordable. MTN
operates in more than 20 mar-
kets including war-tone Syria
and Afghanistan.

Share price movement (Jan.08)

Security Jan. 08 Nov.25 Movement
BATU 30,000 300 00
BOBU 125 125 00
CENT 1,085 1,075 0.9
QCL 102 127 19
DFCU 645 650 0.7
EABL 7,235 7,352 1.5
EBL 1,999 1,752 14
JHL 12,838 12,922 0.6
KA 77 104 25.9
KCB 1,971 1,790 10.1
NIC 10 11 9
NMG 1,443 1,450 0.5
NVL 319 321 0.6
SBU 25 24 4.1
CocaCola Beverages Africa (CCBA) has partnered with Environment Social
Safeguards International (ESSI) to rally communities within the Namanve area to UCHM 10 12 16
plant 4,000 trees in response to matters climate change. In the picture, Simon UCL 9.5 10 5
Kaheru, the public affairs and communications director at CCBA plants a tree just UMEME 239 297 19.5
outside the company’s headquarters as part of the campaign on Jan.17. ALSI -- -- --

Jan. 24 - 30 2020 31
Consequences of
fake medicines
David Richmond reports that Uganda and six other African countries will
this month sign a political declaration and a legally binding agreement
committing them to introduce legislation on tough new criminal penalties.
N
iger’s government is sound-
ing the alarm about bogus
meningitis vaccines – and
it is not the first time. Five
years ago, hundreds of
Nigerien people died after
receiving fake vaccines. The problem, of
course, is not vaccines. It is the widespread
distribution of substandard and falsified
medical products. And it is a problem that
disproportionately affects Africa.
The global market for medicines that are
substandard (failing to meet quality speci-
fications) or falsified (with the composition,
identity, or source deliberately misrepre-
sented) is estimated to be worth up to $200
billion, or 10-15% of the total pharmaceu-
tical market. But it could be much bigger:
according to the World Health Organisation,
which relies largely on voluntary reporting
by health-care professionals, we may know
about “just a small fraction” of all cases.
What we do know is that the problem is
particularly acute in Africa. In 2013-2017,
42% of substandard and falsified medi-
cines found were on the continent. This is
undermining Africa’s hard-won progress on
health, not least by eroding trust in nascent
health-care systems. Needless to say, the
use of substandard or falsified medicines –
which range from ineffective to poisonous
– can have devastating consequences, with
the poorest and most vulnerable being hit
the hardest. After all, it is those with limited
funds and poor access to medical profes-
sionals and quality health care who are most
likely to buy discounted medicines on the
streets, where there is no guarantee that they
are real, let alone of high quality.
32 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
Ultimately, this can result in much higher
costs for victims, who must pay more to treat
the original illness once it has progressed
further, as well as for any side effects from
the fake medication, if they survive at all. A
2015 study estimated that, in Sub-Saharan
Africa, 122,000 children under the age of
five had died in just one year as a result of
substandard or falsified antimalarial medi-
cations. Moreover, since people don’t know
what they are taking, let alone the proper
dose, falsified and substandard medicines
contribute to rising antimicrobial resistance
– a trend that doesn’t discriminate between
rich and poor.
Yet fake-medicine traffickers have little
incentive to stop. It is estimated that every
$1,000 traffickers “invest” in counterfeit
medicines can yield as much as $450,000 in
profit. That margin is 10-25 times larger than
that enjoyed by sellers of illicit narcotics. And
those massive rewards are not counterbal-
anced by significant risk. Even when caught,
fake-medicine traffickers often avoid prison
time. They merely pay a fine and get back to
business.
Like narcotics trafficking, however, it is a
business that depends on – and reinforces –
broader criminal activity, including that of
terrorist groups. In fact, fake medicines are
trafficked through the same organised-crime
networks as illicit drugs and weapons. These
networks destabilise communities and coun-
tries, particularly in already-fragile regions
like the Sahel.
Fortunately, seven African countries –
The Gambia, Ghana, Niger, the Republic
of Congo, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda – are
set to take action to address the scourge of
fake medicine. This month, the Brazzaville
Foundation, of which I am Chief Executive,
will bring together the heads of these states
in Lomé, Togo, to sign a political declaration
and a legally binding agreement committing
them to introduce legislation to this end.
The agreement will include a clear time-
table, and demand tough new criminal pen-
alties. Furthermore, recognising the critical
importance of rigorous enforcement, it will
include provisions on capacity building,
including community engagement, and on
coordination among government agencies.
As such, it will lay the groundwork for a
broader campaign to ensure that all citizens
have access to quality health care, including
safe and effective medicines.
The Lomé Initiative represents an historic
opportunity to step up the fight against the
trade in substandard and fake medicines.
But to subdue this deadly business, which
claims hundreds of thousands of African
lives every year, more of the continent’s
leaders must join the fight. And the interna-
tional community must support them.
Some international actors have embraced
this imperative. Beyond the WHO, the
Council of Europe has created the MEDI-
CRIME Convention, the first international
treaty against counterfeit medical products
and similar crimes involving threats to pub-
lic health. And the United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime has produced a guide to
good legislative practices for combating falsi-
fied medical product-related crime.
But more must be done, and the Lomé
Initiative can go a long way toward ensuring
that it is. To minimize the risks that fake
medicines pose to us all, the world must
offer its support.
David Richmond is Chief Executive of the
Brazzaville Foundation, an independent
London-based charity that focuses on African
issues.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.

Onions and garlic may
Protect against breast cancer
Scientists advise eating more onions and garlic
By Agencies
N
ew research examines the con-
sumption of onion and garlic
among women and suggests that
the vegetables can significantly
reduce the risk of breast cancer.
Onions and garlic are part of the allium
genus, along with leeks, chives, and hun-
dreds of other species.
Rich in flavour, with a strong, pungent
kick, these “feisty” vegetables may also be
able to fight off diseases, such as diabetes,
heart disease, and cancer, according to
emerging evidence.
In regards to cancer, several studies have
specifically explored the links between onion
and garlic consumption and the risk of col-
orectal, stomach, and prostate cancers.
Overall, these studies have found that the
more of these vegetables that people con-
sume, the lower their risk of developing
these cancers.
However, less extensive research has
gone into the link with breast cancer, say
researchers led by Gauri Desai, a doctoral
candidate in epidemiology at the Univer-
sity at Buffalo (UB), part of The State Uni-
versity of New York.
So, Desai and the team set out to
investigate this topic further, looking at
a population of women in Puerto Rico,
USA. The reasons for choosing this pop-
ulation were twofold. Firstly, “Puerto Rico
has lower breast cancer rates, compared to
the mainland (United States), which makes it
an important population to study,” explains
Desai.
Secondly, a condiment called “sofrito,”
which consists largely of garlic and onion, is
a traditional Puerto Rican sauce that is wide-
ly consumed across the island.
The researchers published the results of
their findings in the journal Nutrition and
Cancer.
Studying onions, garlic, and cancer risk
Desai and the team used hospital and
clinic records to identify 314 women aged
between 30 and 79 who had breast cancer
between 2008 and 2014. The researchers also
included 346 control participants who were
matched based on age and residential area.
The control participants had no history
of cancer, apart from nonmelanoma skin
cancer. The researchers used a food frequen-
cy questionnaire to enquire about dietary
patterns and total onion and garlic intake,
which included sofrito consumption.
The team employed unconditional logis-
tic regression to examine the association
between onion and garlic intake and breast
cancer occurrence, adjusting for factors such
as age, education, family history, body mass
index, smoking status, and others.
The researchers found an inverse associa-
tion between moderate and high total onion
and garlic consumption and breast cancer
cases, compared with low consumption of
these vegetables.
Their findings were consistent after the
researchers had stratified the results accord-
ing to menopausal status, suggesting that
“High onion and garlic consumption is pro-
tective against breast cancer in (the studied)
population.”
Specifically, the authors write, “Sofrito
intake, when examined alone, was inversely
associated with breast cancer; for those con-
suming sofrito more than once/day, there
was a 67% decrease in risk, compared to
never consumers.”
“We found that among Puerto Rican
women, the combined intake of onion and
garlic, as well as sofrito, was associated with
a reduced risk of breast cancer,” said Gauri
Desai.
“Studying Puerto Rican women who
consume a lot of onions and garlic as sofrito
was unique,” Desai adds, referring to one
strength of the research.
Why might onions, garlic lower cancer
risk?
Study co-author Jo Freudenheim, Ph.D.,
chair of epidemiology and environmental
health at UB, also comments on the unique-
ness of the study, saying, “There is very little
HEALTH
research on breast cancer in Puerto Rico.”
“This study was a collaboration between
my colleagues here at UB and at the Uni-
versity of Puerto Rico to help us understand
why rates there are lower than in the rest of
the U.S., and why rates there are continuing
to increase, while they are decreasing in the
rest of the (U.S.).”
Although the study was observational and
cannot explain the mechanisms behind the
findings, the researchers suspect that the fla-
vonols and organosulfur compounds abun-
dant in onions and garlic may be responsible
for the anticancer effects.
In particular, the S-allylcysteine, diallyl
disulfide, and diallyl sulfide in garlic and
the alk(en)yl cysteine sulphoxides in onions
have shown “anticarcinogenic properties in
humans, as well as in experimental animal
studies,” says Dr. Lina Mu, an associate pro-
fessor of epidemiology and environmental
health at UB and the study’s senior author.
Some study limitations
However, the authors also recognise
some limitations to their research. For
instance, they write, “The size of the study
was small, particularly for analyses strati-
fied on menopausal status.”
Secondly, the number of people who
had never consumed garlic or onion was
too small to use as a reference group.
Therefore, the low exposure group still
consumed some onion and garlic.
For this reason, say the researchers, the
results “may have underestimated the true
association between garlic and onion intake
and breast cancer.”
“Furthermore, there is not a standardised
recipe for sofrito, a condiment which is
frequently homemade and therefore varies
at least somewhat in recipe from person to
person,” add the authors. “Hence, we were
also not able to estimate the amount of onion
and garlic in sofrito.”
“Although the recipe for sofrito varies
to some extent, other ingredients, such as
bell peppers, tomatoes, cilantro, and black
pepper are usually added. Since we did not
adjust our models for these ingredients, we
cannot be sure that our results were due to
the sole effect of onions and garlic.”
Source: medicineNet
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 33
comment
Truth about
Trump economy
Trump may be a good president for the top 1%
but he has not been good for everyone else
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
A
s the world’s business elites trekked
to Davos for their annual gathering,
people should have been asking a
simple question: Have they over-
come their infatuation with US President
Donald Trump?
Two years ago, a few rare corporate lead-
ers were concerned about climate change,
or upset at Trump’s misogyny and bigotry.
Most, however, were celebrating the presi-
dent’s tax cuts for billionaires and corpora-
tions and looking forward to his efforts to
deregulate the economy. That would allow
businesses to pollute the air more, get more
Americans hooked on opioids, entice more
children to eat their diabetes-inducing foods,
and engage in the sort of financial shenani-
gans that brought on the 2008 crisis.
Today, many corporate bosses are still
talking about the continued GDP growth
and record stock prices. But neither GDP
nor the Dow is a good measure of economic
34 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
performance. Neither tells us what’s hap-
pening to ordinary citizens’ living standards
or anything about sustainability. In fact, U.S.
economic performance over the past four
years is Exhibit A in the indictment against
relying on these indicators.
To get a good reading on a country’s eco-
nomic health, start by looking at the health
of its citizens. If they are happy and pros-
perous, they will be healthy and live longer.
Among developed countries, America sits
at the bottom in this regard. U.S. life expec-
tancy, already relatively low, fell in each of
the first two years of Trump’s presidency,
and in 2017, midlife mortality reached its
highest rate since World War II. This is not a
surprise, because no president has worked
harder to make sure that more Americans
lack health insurance. Millions have lost their
coverage, and the uninsured rate has risen,
in just two years, from 10.9% to 13.7%.
One reason for declining life expectancy in
America is what Anne Case and Nobel lau-
reate economist Angus Deaton call deaths of
despair, caused by alcohol, drug overdoses,
and suicide. In 2017 (the most recent year for
which good data are available), such deaths
stood at almost four times their 1999 level.
The only time I have seen anything like
these declines in health – outside of war or
epidemics – was when I was chief economist
of the World Bank and found out that mor-
tality and morbidity data confirmed what
our economic indicators suggested about
the dismal state of the post-Soviet Russian
economy.
Trump may be a good president for the
top 1% – and especially for the top 0.1% –
but he has not been good for everyone else.
If fully implemented, the 2017 tax cut will
result in tax increases for most households in
the second, third, and fourth income quin-
tiles. Given tax cuts that disproportionately
benefit the ultrarich and corporations, it
should come as no surprise that there was no
significant change in the median U.S. house-
hold’s disposable income between 2017 and
2018 (again, the most recent year with good

data). The lion’s share of the increase in GDP
is also going to those at the top. Real median
weekly earnings are just 2.6% above their
level when Trump took office. And these
increases have not offset long periods of
wage stagnation. For example, the median
wage of a full-time male worker (and those
with full-time jobs are the lucky ones) is still
more than 3% below what it was 40 years
ago. Nor has there been much progress
on reducing racial disparities: in the third
quarter of 2019, median weekly earnings for
black men working full-time were less than
three-quarters the level for white men.
Making matters worse, the growth that
has occurred is not environmentally sustain-
able – and even less so thanks to the Trump
administration’s gutting of regulations that
have passed stringent cost-benefit analyses.
The air will be less breathable, the water less
drinkable, and the planet more subject to cli-
mate change. In fact, losses related to climate
change have already reached new highs in
the U.S., which has suffered more property
damage than any other country – reaching
some 1.5% of GDP in 2017.
The tax cuts were supposed to spur a new
wave of investment. Instead, they triggered
an all-time record binge of share buybacks
– some $800 billion in 2018 – by some of
America’s most profitable companies, and
led to record peacetime deficits (almost $1
trillion in fiscal 2019) in a country suppos-
edly near full employment. And even with
weak investment, the U.S. had to borrow
massively abroad: the most recent data show
foreign borrowing at nearly $500 billion a
year, with an increase of more than 10% in
America’s net indebtedness position in one
year alone.
Likewise, Trump’s trade wars, for all their
sound and fury, have not reduced the U.S.
trade deficit, which was one-quarter higher
in 2018 than it was in 2016. The 2018 goods
deficit was the largest on record. Even the
deficit in trade with China was up almost a
quarter from 2016. The U.S. did get a new
North American trade agreement, without
the investment agreement provisions that
the Business Roundtable wanted, without
the provisions raising drug prices that the
pharmaceutical companies wanted, and
with better labour and environmental pro-
visions. Trump, a self-proclaimed master
deal maker, lost on almost every front in
his negotiations with congressional Demo-
crats, resulting in a slightly improved trade
arrangement.
And despite Trump’s vaunted promises
to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.,
the increase in manufacturing employment
is still lower than it was under his prede-
cessor, Barack Obama, once the post-2008
recovery set in, and is still markedly below
its pre-crisis level. Even the unemployment
rate, at a 50-year low, masks economic
fragility. The employment rate for work-
ing-age males and females, while rising,
has increased less than during the Obama
recovery, and is still significantly below that
of other developed countries. The pace of job
creation is also markedly slower than it was
under Obama.
Again, the low employment rate is not a
surprise, not least because unhealthy people
can’t work. Moreover, those on disability
benefits, in prison – the U.S. incarceration
rate has increased more than sixfold since
1970, with some two million people current-
ly behind bars – or so discouraged that they
Jan. 24 - 30 2020
comment
are not actively seeking jobs are not counted
as “unemployed.” But, of course, they are
not employed. Nor is it a surprise that a
country that doesn’t provide affordable
childcare or guarantee family leave would
have lower female employment – adjusted
for population, more than ten percentage
points lower – than other developed coun-
tries.
Even judging by GDP, the Trump econo-
my falls short. Last quarter’s growth was just
2.1%, far less than the 4%, 5%, or even 6%
Trump promised to deliver, and even less
than the 2.4% average of Obama’s second
term. That is a remarkably poor performance
considering the stimulus provided by the $1
trillion deficit and ultra-low interest rates.
This is not an accident, or just a matter of bad
luck: Trump’s brand is uncertainty, volatili-
ty, and prevarication, whereas trust, stability,
and confidence are essential for growth. So
is equality, according to the International
Monetary Fund.
So, Trump deserves failing grades not just
on essential tasks like upholding democracy
and preserving our planet. He should not
get a pass on the economy, either.
Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate
in economics, is University Professor
at Columbia University and Chief
Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His
most recent book is `People, Power, and
Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an
Age of Discontent’.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.
35
comment
By Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Sabine Schlorke
Create industrial champions
Companies in developing countries should be supported
to become global players in sophisticated sectors
F
or many firms in emerging and de-
veloping economies, emulating the
success of the likes of Samsung and
Hyundai may seem like an impos-
sible dream. But the rapid economic growth
of Japan, South Korea, and other Asian
countries in the second half of the twentieth
century shows how it can be done.
Japan and South Korea, for example, were
once poor countries striving to reach high-in-
come status as quickly as possible. They
each achieved that goal through strong state
interventions, such as industrial policies that
helped domestic firms venture into sophis-
ticated sectors and compete globally. By
applying these lessons, today’s developing
countries can provide similar opportunities
for their companies, as well as good returns
for global investors.
The “Asian miracle” was largely the
result of a three-part strategy. First, the state
set ambitious goals and achieved them by
encouraging and supporting private firms
to set their sights on breaking quickly into
high-tech industrial sectors. Next, govern-
ments understood that their countries had
to develop strong export sectors in order to
vault into the top echelon of high-income
economies. Finally, policymakers needed
to encourage a culture of robust corporate
competition, as well as strict accountability
for the support that businesses received. The
resulting symbiosis between the state and
the market proved highly successful and has
become a model for other developing coun-
tries to follow.
Exports became the gauge of success for
Asia’s miracle economies. Throughout the
region, firms systematically evolved from
low-tech domestic concerns into global high-
tech manufacturers of cars, ships, and elec-
tronics. Because they had to justify the sup-
port they received, they adapted quickly to
changing market conditions. The firms that
managed this transformation well became
hugely successful, while those that under-
performed were eventually restructured.
A vivid illustration of this can be found
in the contrasting fortunes of South Korea’s
Hyundai and Malaysia’s national car com-
pany Proton. The Malaysians had an ambi-
tious plan to create a local supplier cluster.
But although the venture succeeded in many
respects, Proton was protected in its domes-
tic market, and lacked the incentive to export
in substantial quantities and face internation-
36 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
al competition. As a result, Malaysia did not
develop an innovative automotive cluster.
Hyundai, on the other hand, built a
global brand and developed cars that
were key to South Korea’s export success
– an accomplishment due in large part to
government policies. The South Korean state
bet on several family-based conglomerates,
known as chaebols, to develop the
country’s automotive industry. But that
did not preclude restructuring these firms
when warranted, and only a few of them
eventually succeeded.
Hyundai was originally a family-owned
construction company focusing on the rela-
tively modest domestic market. But starting
in the mid-1960s, with strong state support
and incentives, the firm started operating
abroad and entered high-tech sectors such as
shipbuilding and automobile manufactur-
ing, even though it had no previous experi-
ence in those areas. The pressure to export
and compete forced Hyundai to speed up
research and development and upgrade
its technologies. By 1991, the company had
designed and produced its first car engine.
(Likewise, Samsung, also from South Korea,
A focus on
innovation
and exports
enabled these
and other firms
to achieve a
level of success
they could not
have attained
serving only
the domestic
market
traded food products such as noodles before
pivoting to electronics.)
The successful development of the Tai-
wanese electronics sector further highlights
the potential for developing-country firms
to become leading global players in high-
tech fields. Moreover, this technological
leapfrogging took place very early on, when
the economy’s GDP per capita was about
20% of the level of the United States – rough-
ly where Tunisia stands today. The state
essentially acted as a venture capitalist to
catalyse the fledgling sector. Public institutes
established in the early 1970s, such as the
Industrial Technology Research Institute,
spearheaded a huge R&D effort, along with
investment in skills training and building
relationships with foreign multinationals.
These institutes spawned numerous
electronics startups, and their staff initially
headed the new firms. Some of the spin-
offs, such as UMC and TSMC, have grown
to become large multinationals in the
global semiconductor industry. A focus on
innovation and exports enabled these and
other firms to achieve a level of success they
could not have attained serving only the
domestic market.
The earlier rapid growth of Asia’s miracle
economies underscores the importance of
the role of private firms in a country’s eco-
nomic development. Although the state’s
“leading hand” was instrumental in the ini-
tial stages, firms such as Hyundai, Samsung,
and TSMC had the ambition to become
global players in sophisticated sectors. Many
companies in developing countries today
could borrow this recipe and attempt to
create economic miracles of their own, in the
process providing attractive returns to their
countries and investors alike.
Reda Cherif is a senior economist at the
International Monetary Fund. Fuad
Hasanov is a senior economist at the IMF
and Adjunct Professor of Economics at
Georgetown University. Sabine Schlorke is
Global Manager for Manufacturing at the
International Finance Corporation.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.
 ART | BOOKS | SOCIETY | TRAVEL | CULTURE
Tribal artefacts trending
Ancient Africa spear sparks bidding war at auction house
S
By Agencies
trong demand
for vintage tribal
artefacts helped
an African spear
sell for more
than 50 times its
estimate, an auction house
has said.
The African tribal spear
was expected to be sold in
Harborough for about £200
- but instead it went for a lot
more than that after a bidding
war.
The spear was snapped
up for a staggering £18,500
(Approx.Shs90 million) in
Market Harborough in the
UK.
The rare ceremonial
‘weapon’, believed to be at
least 100 years old, was given
an estimate price of just £200-
£300.
But it was sold for £18,500 –
£21,830 including charges – at
Gildings auctioneers on Great
Bowden Road, Harborough.
Amid a fierce bidding
war the beautifully-ornate
symbolic spear was bagged
by a thrilled European tribal
specialist via the internet.
Tribal artefacts experts
across the world were
alerted after it was taken into
Gildings by its delighted
owner, who lives in the
Harborough area.
According to the BBC,
a spokesman for Market
Harborough-based Gildings
said there was currently very
strong interest in artefacts
from that region among the
academic world and the price
it fetched reflected its quality,
intricate design and the fact it
would have been owned by
a very powerful member of
the tribe.
The spokesman said: “The
tribal art market has had the
potential to throw up this
kind of result.
“The significance of the
item and its status, having
come from a prominent
figure, it all adds to its cache,
with the academic world
prepared to pay a sizeable
amount.”
And the spear whipped
up a storm of global interest
on one of the auction house’s
regular General Valuation
Days.
Mark Gilding, Gildings
director and militaria
specialist, said: “The tribal art
market has had the potential
to generate this kind of result.
“This is not the first time
such an item has emerged
from a local home in the
recent past.
“Only last year we
introduced an U’u paddle
from the Marquesas Islands
to a Parisian auction house
that went on to make in
excess of £30,000.”
He added: “Six bidders
from around the world
Jan. 24 - 30 2020
participated in the bidding
for the spear via telephone,
online bidding, and even via a
WhatsApp call, proving that a
provincial auction house can
attract international bidding
and interest in rare items and
artefacts.”
The spear measures about 5ft
6ins (167cm) long and features
a carved tribal head and steel
tip. It features two carved
heads representing spirits
and is thought to likely have
originated from the Luba state
of Central Africa, now part of
the Democratic Republic of
Congo.
It was designed as a status
symbol rather than a weapon to
be used in warfare.
It’s thought to have been
carved by expert tribal
craftsmen in the late 19th or
early 20th century.
Such spears were important
symbols of power and
leadership and are now
highly coveted by collectors
of magnificent tribal and
ethnographical art.
Anyone interested in selling
an item at auction with Gildings
can attend the weekly General
Valuation Days between 10am
and 4pm on Fridays.
You don’t have to make an
appointment.
Specialists are available to
value jewelry, watches, silver,
toys and memorabilia, pictures,
20th century design and
antiques and collectables.
37
Billionaire hands out $9m to see if money makes people happier
A Japanese billionaire has announced
plans to donate a billion yen (Approx.Shs33
billion) to 1,000 of his Twitter followers in
an intriguing social experiment. On Jan.01,
Yusaku Maezawa, founder of Japan’s
Tuning 50 isn’t
funny!
A woman in the UK has
sued her colleagues at work
after they bought her a
50th birthday card. Hilary
Munro was sent the greet-
ing — signed by all the staff
of Sampson Coward LLP
— in the post. Munro, of
Salisbury, had been at the
firm for six months when
she took time off around
the birthday. While she
was away, another legal
secretary worked out it was
her 50th. The firm marked
staff birthdays with cards.
But when Munro returned,
she wasn’t impressed that
a colleague commented: “It
was your 50th wasn’t it? You
can’t hide it, you know.”
She sued the firm claiming
discrimination on the basis
of age. She told a tribunal
she felt “humiliated” when
a colleague joked about her
reaching the milestone age.
She told the tribunal she
was a “private person with a
belief that personal matters
can remain private”. He
case was thrown out.
38 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
largest fashion retail website, tweeted that $9,118 (Approx.Shs34 million) was follow
he would be giving away the money to and ‘retweet’ him before January 7. At the
random people, as part of an effort to find time of this writing, Maezawa’s Twitter
out if money really can buy happiness. post announcing the giveaway had been
All people had to do for the chance to win retweeted over 4.5 million times.
Man still working at 102 years
is telling him it’s time to retire.
He plans to report to work for
the last time on Feb. 6. “Doctors
tell me that’s one reason I’m
still going. I got good lungs.”
Vollmer enlisted in the Navy
after the Japanese attack on Pearl
Harbor in 1941. During his DNR
career, the tools of the surveying
trade evolved from paper and
pencil to high-tech gear such as
a handheld GPS device. Vollmer
said that spending time on ships
during World War II provided
inspiration for his later career
with the DNR. “One of the
officers got on a bridge with
Bob Vollmer is 102 years agency in 1962. The World War a sextant, and a wristwatch,”
old and a surveyor for the II veteran still travels Indiana he said, adding that the officer
Indiana Department of Natural collecting technical field data was charting their position. “Of
Resources. The southern and confirming boundary lines course later on I just realized
Indiana man, whose mother for DNR-managed properties, that’s part of surveying.”
lived to be 108, joined the state but he said that his body finally
Louis Vuitton buys world’s Drivers fined Shs10m
second-biggest diamond for running out of fuel
Gerrard Newel of against the law in the
the UK was recently UK as it puts the driver,
charged with careless any passengers and
and inconsiderate driv- other road users at seri-
ing at Manchester Mag- ous risk. In case there is
istrates’ Court and was obstruction when a car
fined £2,000 (Approx. runs out of fuel in the
The luxury French fashion house, Louis Shs10 million) middle of
Vuitton has purchased the world’s sec- for running the road,
ond-largest diamond, a 1,758-carat gem known out of fuel on the charge
as the Sewelo diamond for “millions” as the a motorway. falls under
brand turns its attention from leather hand- His car was the careless
bags to high jewelry. The Sewelo diamond was left stranded and incon-
found in Botswana in April 2019 at the Karowe in the middle siderate
mine by Lucara Diamond Corp. The name of of the motor- driving
the gem means “rare find” in Tswana - one way after completely penalty. The police can
of the languages spoken in Botswana. Louis running out of fuel, slap you with a £100 fine
Vuitton plans to cut and polish the diamond eventually causing a (Approx.Shs500, 000)
into smaller stones that will be featured in a dangerous two-lorry but when taken to court
collection of jewelry, with Lucara getting a pile-up. Running out the penalty is severer
“non-material upfront fee” and retaining a 50 of fuel; a major incon- and can be up to £5,000
per cent interest in the polished diamonds. venience, is actually (Approx.Shs24 million).
Toyota invests in flying cars
Auto giant joins aviation specialist to
develop urban air mobility solutions
By Agencies
T
oyota has announced a partnership
with aerospace company Joby Avia-
tion to begin development and pro-
duction of electric vertical take-off
and landing (eVTOL) aircraft – better known
as flying cars.
The Japanese car-maker has announced
a lead investment of $US394 million to help
fund the $US590m project, making it the lat-
est automotive company to signal its intent
in the emerging urban air transportation
arena. In future, battery-powered eVTOL
vehicles are expected to create a new cate-
gory of moving people and cargo by trans-
porting commuters and goods quickly and
quietly by air within and between urban
centres, reducing road congestion and air
pollution. It’s unclear whether this collabo-
ration will result in the flying car with which
Toyota was expected to light the Olympic
torch at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games in
July, where it will be presenting partner and
automotive sponsor.
If it does, the flying torch lighter won’t be
all Toyota’s work.
Much like Hyundai’s recently announced
partnership with Uber to create flying taxis,
Toyota says it will share its expertise in man-
ufacturing, quality control and logistics with
Joby to “enable the deployment of fast, quiet
and affordable air transportation services”.
“Air transportation has been a long-term
goal for Toyota, and while we continue our
work in the automobile business, this agree-
ment sets our sights to the sky,” said Toyota
chief executive Akio Toyoda.
“Through this new and exciting endeav-
or, we hope to deliver freedom of movement
and enjoyment to customers everywhere, on
land, and now, in the sky.”
Toyota Motor Corporation says its execu-
tive vice-president Shigeki Tomoyama will
join Joby’s board of directors and play an
active role in setting strategic direction at
board level.
Joby Aviation says it develops eVTOL
aircraft using elements of helicopters and
small planes to produce zero-emissions
aerial vehicles with fast flight speeds, quiet
operation and low operating and mainte-
nance costs.
Founder and CEO of the California-based
aerospace company, JoeBen Bevirt, said that
integrating synergies from the Toyota Pro-
duction System will help facilitate the effi-
cient mass production of its aircraft, helping
it deliver high quality, durable and reliable
vehicles that meet exacting safety standards.
“This collaboration with Toyota rep-
resents an unprecedented commitment of
money and resources for us, and for this
new industry, from one of the world’s lead-
ing automakers.,” he said.
“I am excited to harness Toyota’s engi-
neering and manufacturing prowess to
drive us toward our dream of helping a
billion people save an hour-plus commuting
time every day.”
Toyota and Joby say they will reveal fur-
ther details as production gets underway.
Jan. 24 - 30 2020 39
global comment
By Jim O’Neill
Growth of the world economy
With many countries falling short of their potential,
has the world economy reached peak growth?
A
t the start of a new decade, many
commentators are understandably
focused on the health of the global
economy. GDP growth this decade
most likely will be lower than during the
teens, barring a notable improvement in
productivity in the West and China, or a sus-
tained acceleration in India and the largest
African economies.
Until we have final fourth-quarter data for
2019, we won’t be able to calculate global
GDP growth for the 2010-2019 decade. Still,
it is likely to be around 3.5% per year, which
is similar to the growth rate for the 2000s,
and higher than the 3.3% growth of the
1980s and 1990s. That slightly stronger per-
formance over the past two decades is due
almost entirely to China, with India playing
a modestly expanding role.
Average annual growth of 3.5% for 2010-
2019 means that many countries fell short
of their potential. In principle, global GDP
could have increased by more than 4%,
judging by the two key drivers of growth:
the size of the workforce and productivity.
In fact, the 2010s could have been the
strongest decade of the first half of this
century. But it didn’t turn out that way. The
European Union endured a disappointing
period of weakness, and Brazil and Russia
each grew by much less than in the previous
decade.
The prospects for the coming decades are
not as strong. China’s labour-force growth is
now peaking, and the populations of Japan,
Germany, Italy, and other key countries are
aging and in decline. True, some countries
and regions that underperformed in the
teens could now catch up; but much will
depend on the realisation of several positive
developments.
For example, given the EU’s demo-
graphics, it would take a significant
improvement in productivity to boost the
rate of GDP growth. More expansionary
fiscal policies in many countries – including,
possibly, Germany – could produce a tem-
porary acceleration this year and perhaps
through 2021. But it is hard to see how a
stimulus-driven expansion could be sus-
tained much beyond that point. Europeans
can talk all they want about “structural
reform.” But without effective productiv-
ity-enhancing measures, the EU’s growth
potential will remain in decline.
As for Brazil and Russia, it would be
40 Jan. 24 - 30 2020
highly disappointing if both countries were
to register the same weak growth of the
past decade. Yet, to get from around 1%
annual growth to 3.5-4% annual growth
would probably require another commod-
ity-price boom, in addition to major pro-
ductivity enhancements. Given that both
countries tend to eschew reform whenever
commodity prices are booming – a classic
symptom of the “commodities curse” – it is
doubtful that either will reach its potential
this decade (though, if one had to bet, Brazil
has a better chance than Russia).
In China, a further deceleration in trend
GDP growth is highly likely, owing to
demographic realities. When I offered my
earlier assessment of the BRICs (Brazil,
Russia, India, and China) at the start of this
century, it was already clear that by the end
of the 2010s, China would be feeling the
growth-constraining effects of a peaking
workforce. Accordingly, I estimated that its
real (inflation-adjusted) annual GDP growth
in the 2020s would be around 4.5-5.5%. To
achieve growth above that range would
require a significant increase in productivity.
In light of China’s investments in technology
and shift to more domestic consumption,
productivity certainly could improve. But
whether that will be enough to overcome
China’s other well-known challenges
remains to be seen.
For its part, the United Kingdom could
achieve stronger growth this decade, but it
Average
annual
growth of
3.5% for 2010-
2019 means
that many
countries fell
short of their
potential
could also suffer a slowdown, depending on
how it deals with Brexit and its aftermath. In
any case, the country’s influence on global
GDP is likely to be modest.
Then there is the United States, where
annual growth potential appears to be just
over 2%. Without more fiscal stimulus and
an indefinite continuation of ultra-easy
monetary policies, it is difficult to see how
the U.S. could exceed this rate. Moreover, it
has been more than a decade since the U.S.
experienced a recession. Were that to happen
in the months or years ahead, the U.S. would
have an even smaller chance of reaching its
growth potential for the 2020s.
Last but not least are the still-smaller
economies with enormous growth poten-
tial. While countries such as Indonesia (and
perhaps Mexico and Turkey) are becoming
more relevant in an assessment of global
GDP, it is India that promises to have the
largest influence in the 2020s and beyond.
The country’s demographics will remain in
an economic sweet spot for at least another
decade.
Were the Indian government to adopt the
right mix of growth-enhancing reforms,
it could easily achieve annual growth in
the range of 8-10%. And, because India is
already close to being the world’s fifth-
largest economy, that would have a signif-
icant influence on global GDP growth. The
problem, of course, is that the current gov-
ernment has shown no indication that it will
pursue positive reforms. On the contrary, it
has launched a debilitating new culture war.
That leaves Africa. As matters stand,
no African economy is large enough to
influence global GDP on its own. But, as a
region, Africa’s GDP is close to that of India,
which means that if enough of its major
economies can achieve strong growth, the
effects will be felt more broadly. The rise of
Africa seems both desirable and inevitable to
me. Whether the continent can drive global
GDP growth will be a key question for the
coming decade.
Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman
Sachs Asset Management and a former UK
Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.
 Stay Informed
Our online platforms have
limitless possibilities

www.independent.co.ug
@UgIndependent
The Independent magazine

Independent Publications Limited, Plot 82/84, Kanjokya Street, P. O. Box 3304, Kampala, Uganda
Tel: +256-312-637-391/ 2/ 3/ 4 | Fax: +256-312-637-396 | E-mail: editorial@independent.co.ug,
advertising@independent.co.ug, circulation@independent.co.ug Website: www.independent.co.ug