Research Proposal

Impact of Climate Change on Economy of

Pakistan

By:

Zafar Jamal
&
Naznin Shad

Pakistan Academy for

Rural Development
Peshawar
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Introduction

Climate change has become one of the most discussed and debated phenomenon
over the last two decades especially since the dawn of the new century. Most scientists
around the word agree that ‘Climate change is not a myth but a reality’. Major cause of
global climate change is said to be the emission of carbon dioxide due to the large scale
burning of oil, coal and gas, with an additional contribution coming from clearing of
tropical forests and woodlands. The carbon dioxide traps heat from the sun in the earth’s
atmosphere and prevents it from being sent back out into space. The heat that stays
trapped in the atmosphere causes the global temperature to increase.
Temperature and precipitation, two of the climatic factors, depend upon
greenhouse gases concentration, and are primarily determinants of vegetation pattern and
have significant adverse impacts not only on ecology or ecosystem but also on
agriculture, agro forestry, livestock, water resources, horticulture, land use pattern and
non wood forest etc. Pakistan contributes very little to the green house gases and global
pollution but it is one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of the impending impact
of climate change in years to come. In Pakistan these adverse impacts may cause dents
fro economic benefits, environmental services, and socio-cultural values derived from
agriculture and its allied sectors. Because, agriculture sector is the mainstay of country’s
economy and supports our entire food chain and social structure. It is the second largest
economic sector, accounting for over 21% of GDP. It remains by far the largest employer
in the country and absorbs 45% of the country’s total labour force. Furthermore,
agriculture and its allied sectors are considered backbone of our economy and provide
crucial inputs and support to livelihood. Our agriculture is primarily dependent upon the
Indus river system which originates from the glaciers that have been receding at an
alarming pace in recent years. The continuous rise in temperature threatens the eco
system that sustains our rivers which in turn threatens our agriculture and hence the
whole economy. The threat posed by climate change to our agriculture is complex and
multi dimensional and the resulting impact can threaten the very fabric of our socio-
economic system if timely measures are not taken.

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Statement of the Problem

Patterns of climate change are slowly but surely becoming visible in Pakistan with a
gradual rise in temperature and seasonal shift. Summers are becoming longer and winters
shorter in duration. Extreme weather conditions with fluctuations and variations in
precipitation and increased frequency of climatic extremes are also being observed.
Glaciers in the countries north that sustain the Indus river system are receding at an
alarming pace. It is feared that water shortage in our rivers, coupled with change in
precipitation patterns and seasonal shift will have a severe and wide ranging effect on
agriculture practices in the country that can impact our whole socio-economic system.
Whereas Pakistan can do nothing to check the ever increasing climate change what we
can definitely do is make necessary preparations and make our agriculture practices
reasonably suited to the changing climate patterns. Addressing this issue poses a serious
challenge for policy makers. An effective response and mitigation strategy requires a
proper understanding of the phenomenon and its likely impact. An effective climate
change policy requires consideration of a number of complex factors, including weighing
the costs of implementing climate change policies against the benefits of more
environmentally sustainable practices. But this requires reliable data and focused research
in the field, the two areas that are generally low on our priority list.

Objectives of the Study

The study will be conducted to:

 Understand the phenomenon of climatic change from Pakistan’s perspective
 Assess the vulnerability of agriculture sector due to climate change
 Find out economic implications of the threats being posed to agriculture sector
due to climate change
 Analyze the preparedness level in the country to meet the challenges being posed
to the agriculture sector.
 Find out the ways and means to mitigate the adverse impact of climatic change

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Significance, Scope and Limitations of the Study

A lot of research work related to climate change has been done by many
researchers, but very modest literature is available pertaining to its impacts on
agriculture. This research paper will shied light on socio-economic implications of the
impact of climate change on agriculture. The research paper will try to add to the existing
literature on the subject and identify various measures and environmentally friendly
practices to address the adverse impact of the climate change and mitigation strategies
due to climate change. This study will focused on “ (i) analysis of the past trend of
climate change, (ii) critical review of the future climate change scenarios and (iii)
downscaling climate change scenarios to agriculture and its allied sectors in order to (i)
predict is impact on agriculture (ii) make vulnerability assessment, both in spatial and
temporal contexts, with the ultimate aim to propose a national response strategy to
combat the impacts of climate change on agriculture sector of Pakistan with special
reference to socio-economic implications. The scope of the study is limited to use of
available secondary data.
Literature Review
Schlenker (2006) in a study found that what would be the impact of climate
change on yields of the agricultural crops United States. The study revealed the levels of
threshold at temperatures 29°C for corn and soybeans and 33°C in case of cotton. It
resulted that temperature above threshold would harm the crops and reduce yields.
Shakoor et al (2011), conducted a study to see the effect of climate which
revealed that the effect of temperature-rise was notable on agriculture production whereas
the rain had positive impact on agriculture production. Crop varieties having tolerance
against temperature characteristics (such as to peak temperatures), and drought resistant,
are a solution. Breeding process for new varieties takes eight to twenty years for new
lines. (Ziska et al., 2012).
Faisal et al (2013) studied the Monsoon of 2012 which was important due to the
fact that it was the third consecutive monsoon, which received above normal rainfall. It

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was twelfth heaviest monsoon season since 1961 which received 31 % more rains than
previous seasons (1961-2010).

Climate Change in Pakistan are increase in temperature, reduction in rainfall in

arid areas and increases in areas of monsoon, and increase in melting of glaciers. These
changes along with other developments will raise deeper insight into the effects. Recent
Climate Changes which Pakistan had in a period of the last seventeen years. Therefore,
food security threats will remain a core issue for which investigation on the bases of
productivity analysis is desired. (Mirza at el 2011).
The LEAD has given a Climate Change Action Plan to Pakistan which indicated
that country is highly under threat of climate change. Pakistan ranking is 12th globally,
according to vulnerability index, 4.5 billion $ economic losses are anticipated,
productivity of grasslands, crop and livestock yields are anticipated to suffer severely due
to change in climate which are obvious due to higher temperatures and due to reduction
in surface water availability and change in the pattern of precipitation (LP, 2008).
Bruce at el (2016) reported that there are serious threats for food security,
attention should be action-oriented research agenda, where there are four key challenges;
(a) change in research culture; (b) options for farmers as a deriving stakeholder-driven
portfolios of, communities and countries; (c) ensuring that adaptation actions be made
relevant who are vulnerable to climate change; (d) combining adaptation and mitigation.
Increase in temperatures is noticeable in recent decades in Asia and the Pacific
regions. Thirty-seven (37) percent of the total world agricultural emissions are
stockpiling from Asia and the Pacific which are posing a threat to agriculture. Bhutan,
Indonesia, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, PRC, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste,
Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are most vulnerable to climatic changes (Asian Development
Bank, 2009).
Ikram, F et al (2016), reported that summer mean temperature shows more
warming after mid-century in lower areas of Pakistan including Punjab, southern parts of
KPK and upper areas of Balochistan.
Climate change may have small effects at the beginning for developed countries
but negative effects will be very large and stronger in future. Climate change may lead to

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net benefits for countries with longer latitude but inverse for countries with low latitude
(Stern, 2006).

(MOE, 2009) reported that if temperatures increase by 3°C by 2040 and 5°C to
6°C by the end of this century, Asia can lose half of its wheat production

Research Methodology

The methodology adopted for this research paper will be descriptive and
analytical in nature. Research will be primarily based on secondary sources of data.
Relevant material, data and information concerning the topic will be secured through
internet sources. Wherever required, consultations and discussions with officials of the
Provincial EPA, Agriculture department, agriculture search institutes, etc will be held.