Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
L&T Infotech
Estimate change CMP: INR1,933 TP: INR2,260 (+17%) Buy
TP change
Rating change Top client rebound and encouraging deal wins are key positives
Continue expecting industry leading growth; Reiterate Buy
Bloomberg LTI IN Robust growth in the top account alleviates concerns around client-specific
Equity Shares (m) 172 issues. Besides, strong/broad-based client addition across buckets and
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 336.4 / 4.8 encouraging deal wins will likely translate into industry leading growth. We
52-Week Range (INR) 2003 / 1437 see further scope for margin expansion driven by better utilization.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 16/18/-4 We upgrade our EPS estimate by ~6% for FY20-22, given the large deal win
12M Avg Val (INR M) 272 momentum and the decent outlook in the top client. Reiterating Buy.
Strong beat on revenue growth and margins
Financials & Valuations (INR b) Revenue increased 14.2% YoY (our estimate: +10.2%), EBIT margin came in
Y/E Mar 2020E 2021E 2022E at 16.2% (our estimate: 15.7%), while PAT growth was stagnant (our
Sales 107.6 121.7 139.3 estimate: -3%). Organic revenue excl. pass-through increased 6.4% QoQ CC.
EBIT 17.3 21.0 24.6 Growth was broad-based across most verticals and service lines. The uptick
EBIT Margin (%) 16.1 17.2 17.6 in spends at the top client, combined with a few large deal ramp-ups among
PAT 15.1 18.7 21.5 top-10 clients, is the key growth driver.
EPS (INR) 86.4 106.7 122.9 Growth in Europe (+1.8% QoQ CC) was surprisingly soft, despite the ramp
EPS Gr. (%) -0.2 23.5 15.2 ups of a few large deals in this region.
BV/Sh. (INR) 345.3 426.4 519.8 EBIT margin expanded ~70bp QoQ, largely driven by operating leverage,
Ratios higher utilization and currency benefit. Key margin headwind was lower
RoE (%) 27.6 27.6 26.0 margins associated with pass-through revenue.
RoCE (%) 32.2 32.3 68.0
In line with the industry trend, attrition moderated by 70bp to 17.7%.
Payout (%) 20.0 20.0 20.0
DSO (including unbilled) increased by five days QoQ.
Valuations
Deal win momentum continued with net new TCV of USD75m.
P/E (x) 22.3 18.0 15.7
P/BV (x) 5.6 4.5 3.7 Optimistic on growth momentum at top client
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 12.2 10.1 Strong growth in the top account was led by a new project. In the ongoing
Div Yield (%) 0.9 1.1 1.3 consolidation here, management indicated that LTI is on the positive side. It
is optimistic on continued growth momentum in this account.
Shareholding pattern (%) The company is seeing an increase in spending in discretionary areas of BFSI.
As On Dec-19 Sep-19 Dec-18 Concerns about US presidential elections have so far not come up in
Promoter 74.6 74.6 74.8 conversation with clients.
DII 7.2 8.2 7.4 Pricing competitiveness exists on the legacy side of the business which is
FII 9.1 7.7 7.8 sometimes offset by higher pricing in new-age offerings.
Others 9.2 9.5 9.9 LTI will continue to be a growth company with a focus on S&M investments.
FII Includes depository receipts It sees some more headroom for operating leverage with growth.
Valuation view – industry leading growth to defend rich multiples
The results offer comfort that client-specific issues faced over 9MCY19 are
largely behind. Moderating attrition also comes in as a positive.
Recent large deal wins hint at strong growth over the next 12 months.
Besides, LTI’s recent client addition across buckets was the strongest and
broad-based v/s comparable prior periods. Given its account mining
capabilities, this should provide good headroom for incremental growth.
Industry leading growth + prudent capital allocation should defend rich
multiples, in our view. We arrive at a fair valuation of 19x one-year forward
P/E, at a 15% discount to TCS. Maintain Buy.
15 January 2020 2
L&T Infotech
Exhibit 1: Among the key geographies, growth was largely driven by North America
Contri. to Growth Growth
Industry Classification
Rev. (%) QoQ (%) CC YoY (%) CC
North America 69.5 9.6 18.1
Europe 15.6 1.8 8.7
RoW 7.6 -9.9 -3.6
India 7.4 38.4 11.8
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 2: Analytics, AI & Cognitive, IMS, ADM & Testing are major growth drivers
Contri. to Growth Growth
New Classification
Rev. (%) QoQ (%) CC YoY (%) CC
ADM and Testing 35.8 7.3 5.9
Enterprise Solutions 28.7 5.1 17.7
Infrastructure Management Services 11.5 13.0 16.0
Analytics, AI & Cognitive 12.8 22.4 28.4
Enterprise Integration, Mobility 8.5 3.1 27.6
Platform Based Solutions 2.7 -2.9 -7.2
Source: Company, MOFSL
15 January 2020 3
L&T Infotech
12%
7% 6%
4%
-19% 2%
-8%
15 January 2020 4
L&T Infotech
100.0 100
75
Exhibit 7: Marginal increase in utilizations Exhibit 8: Attrition moderated in line with industry trends
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
Exhibit 9: Onsite-offshore revenue mix Exhibit 10: Onsite-offshore effort mix
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
15 January 2020 5
L&T Infotech
Valuation view
Client-specific issues seem largely behind
Over 9MCY19, LTI witnessed deceleration in growth (~9pp YoY) and a drop in
utilization (~300bp) due to issues faced at three of its key clients. Further, in
conjunction with rising attrition (18% over the previous12 months), investments,
etc., the EBIT margin contracted ~360bp.
However, Dec’19 results give us comfort that client-specific issues are largely
behind. Moderating attrition is another comforting factor.
Exhibit 11: Strong client additions across the board… Exhibit 12: ..will translate into strong growth going forward
1+ Million $ clients 5+ Million $ clients 10+ Million $ clients Weighted average value (USD M)
210
20+ Million $ clients 50+ Million $ clients 100+ Million $ clients 180
40 163
138
20
(20)
Dec17-DeC18
Dec17-DeC18
Dec15-Dec16
Dec16-Dec17
Dec18-Dec19
Dec15-Dec16
Dec16-Dec17
As the concerns around (1) top clients and (2) potential immediate integration with
Mindtree are largely behind, we continue to remain buyers. We upgrade our EPS
estimates over by ~6% for FY20-22. Our TP implies 19x one-year forward P/E.
15 January 2020 6
L&T Infotech
Exhibit 13: Prudent capital allocation and industry leading growth to defend rich multiples
P/E Rolling 5-yr avg P/E +1 SD
24.0 23.5
19.9
20.0
16.0
12.0
10.7
8.0
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Apr-17
Dec-16
Apr-18
Feb-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-19
Feb-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Source: Bloomberg
15 January 2020 7
L&T Infotech
Operating Metrics
Operating Metrics 1QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20
Revenue by verticals (%)
BFS 26.8 28.7 30.9 29.9 29.1 27.7 27.7 27.1 27.8
Insurance 20.6 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.7 17.7
Energy and Process 11.7 11.5 10.1 10.7 10.8 11.0 10.7 12.1 11.3
CPG, Retail and Pharma 8.5 9.0 9.1 10.2 10.6 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.2
High-Tech, Media & Ent. 10.5 10.6 11.3 11.2 11.3 12.4 12.5 10.8 10.8
Others 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.6 3.9 4.6 3.5 3.7
Revenue by service offerings (%)
ADM and Testing 45.2 41.2 42.1 39.9 38.6 38.0 38.1 36.1 35.8
ERP 22.9 27.0 26.3 25.2 27.8 29.2 28.4 29.5 28.7
IMS 12.3 11.7 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.5
Analytics 9.7 10.7 10.3 12.2 11.3 10.7 11.2 11.3 12.8
Enterprise Integration Mobility 6.4 6.5 6.5 8.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 9.0 8.5
Platform based solutions 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7
Revenue by geography (%)
North America 68.7 66.0 66.6 67.4 66.8 66.4 68.7 68.7 69.5
Europe 17.8 18.6 17.9 17.1 16.7 16.4 16.0 16.4 15.6
India 7.1 8.0 6.4 6.4 7.8 8.2 6.9 6.0 7.6
ROW 6.3 7.4 9.1 9.2 8.8 9.1 8.5 8.9 7.4
Client metrics (% of revenues)
Top 5 client 38.1 35.2 36.6 36.2 34.5 32.2 31.3 31.7 32.8
Top 10 client 50.9 49.6 50.3 49.9 48.4 47.0 45.0 45.5 46.8
Top 20 client 66.3 65.1 66.0 65.5 64.3 63.4 62.5 61.4 62.0
Non Top 20 clients 33.7 34.9 34.0 34.5 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.6 38.0
Number of active clients 256 300 301 312 314 343 354 366 429
New clients added in the period 12 15 19 22 17 14 20 20 29
Million $ clients
5 Million $ clients 97 109 114 114 121 123 124 137 153
10 Million $ clients 35 44 42 44 47 49 49 48 48
20 Million $ clients 24 23 25 25 25 26 26 27 28
50 Million $ clients 12 13 13 14 15 17 19 18 18
100 Million $ clients 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
Employee metrics
Development 20,899 22,655 23,656 24,923 25,985 26,572 27,665 29,266 29,669
Sales and support 1,422 1,484 1,494 1,491 1,528 1,597 1,682 1,713 1,750
Total employees 22,321 24,139 25,150 26,414 27,513 28,169 29,347 30,979 31,419
Efforts mix
Onsite 24% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Offshore 76% 77% 77% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78%
Utilization measures
Including trainees 77.7 79.9 79.7 80.4 82.1 80.1 80.5 78.9 79.2
Excluding trainees 78.2 81.1 81.2 82.3 83.0 81.1 81.3 80.6 81.3
Attrition LTM (%) 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 16.5 17.5 18.3 18.4 17.7
15 January 2020 8
L&T Infotech
15 January 2020 9
L&T Infotech
15 January 2020 10
L&T Infotech
15 January 2020 11
L&T Infotech
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature.
The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,
representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed,
in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose
and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities
discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives,
financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including
the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be
suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions
contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect
or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment
banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and
independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other
person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of
or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject
MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category
of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors,
employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may
arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any
and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold
MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any
errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management
Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of
Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a
group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory
services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee
of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj
Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
15 January 2020 12